Buying The Dip Is Dead_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Buying The Dip Is Dead

seekingalpha2021-10-14

Summary Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up. There's a mechanical reason why the market has not "bounced back." That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental...

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254

Lainey_Lim
·2021-10-15
Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀
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非洲韭菜盒子
·2021-10-14
Buy the dip？中概股用这个逻辑得跳楼
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Baby Step 4
·2021-10-14
So what do we do now ?
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Kel9670ong
·2021-10-14
A huge re correction is coming
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Mireyachen
·2021-10-14
Tiger has now become kitten already
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Grest
·2021-10-14
Don’t catch the falling knife
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MHh
·2021-10-14
Hmmm
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5
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3f585b4d
·2021-10-14
A lot of theory only. 😂
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- koolgal:
  Yes I agree. 👍😊
  2021-10-22
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henglaw
·2021-10-14
It’s earnings week. Stay the course.
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8
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DenisL
·2021-10-14
It never happened for the last 27 years. So what changed
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Ahvi
·2021-10-14
Coool
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- 滚股怪:
  Cool
  2021-10-14
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MYrocket
·2021-10-14
Good read
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embraceit
·2021-10-14
Buy at your preferred price and the price you are comfortable with.
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7
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bobsk
·2021-10-14
Just need to buy at a lower dip lolol
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- skylander:
  nice
  2021-10-14
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AxelOng
·2021-10-14
We need data to support the trend
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5
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KYHBKO
·2021-10-14
buying the dip is here to stay. with research into the company's financials, earnings, this may help us to avoid catching a falling knife. let's do our due diligence before we invest.
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9
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- 滚股怪:
  Ert
  2021-10-14
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paracule
·2021-10-14
Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article
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DragonKC
·2021-10-14
Ha, buy the dip is not dead. There will always be sellers n buyers. That how stock markets work. It's up to investors when the buy the dip.
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- hohok:
  yes
  2021-10-14
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Xiaomiiiii
·2021-10-14
Like please
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3
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CCYMoney
·2021-10-14
Hi
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-14 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","article_id":"1111412750","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"买蘸酱是死的","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":825701647,"gmtCreate":1634256709946,"gmtModify":1634274408902,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"htmlText":"Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","listText":"Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","text":"Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825701647","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825825218,"gmtCreate":1634218856319,"gmtModify":1634218856319,"author":{"id":"3566900685391720","authorId":"3566900685391720","name":"非洲韭菜盒子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566900685391720","authorIdStr":"3566900685391720"},"htmlText":"Buy the dip？中概股用这个逻辑得跳楼","listText":"Buy the dip？中概股用这个逻辑得跳楼","text":"Buy the dip？中概股用这个逻辑得跳楼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825825218","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825898143,"gmtCreate":1634215052519,"gmtModify":1634215052948,"author":{"id":"3585617155516823","authorId":"3585617155516823","name":"Baby Step 4","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee1c9c06b2929c88e9f5bb3a24cf2d2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585617155516823","authorIdStr":"3585617155516823"},"htmlText":"So what do we do now ?","listText":"So what do we do now ?","text":"So what do we do now ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825898143","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825163095,"gmtCreate":1634210195775,"gmtModify":1634210196016,"author":{"id":"3578468158955348","authorId":"3578468158955348","name":"Kel9670ong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd86c42e207fbd94e7f8877a29457d71","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578468158955348","authorIdStr":"3578468158955348"},"htmlText":"A huge re correction is coming","listText":"A huge re correction is coming","text":"A huge re correction is coming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825163095","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825189213,"gmtCreate":1634209351675,"gmtModify":1634209351886,"author":{"id":"3580082297864003","authorId":"3580082297864003","name":"Mireyachen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a91c46253c0f6f4ea2e6ca14c8079872","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580082297864003","authorIdStr":"3580082297864003"},"htmlText":"Tiger has now become kitten already","listText":"Tiger has now become kitten already","text":"Tiger has now become kitten already","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825189213","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825117365,"gmtCreate":1634209195706,"gmtModify":1634209195978,"author":{"id":"3581503320247876","authorId":"3581503320247876","name":"Grest","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581503320247876","authorIdStr":"3581503320247876"},"htmlText":"Don’t catch the falling knife&nbsp;","listText":"Don’t catch the falling knife&nbsp;","text":"Don’t catch the falling knife","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825117365","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825135779,"gmtCreate":1634208332598,"gmtModify":1634208333073,"author":{"id":"4091758936365950","authorId":"4091758936365950","name":"MHh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b2feced9ef5dcc9e95997d1f4db280","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091758936365950","authorIdStr":"4091758936365950"},"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825135779","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825325428,"gmtCreate":1634203422915,"gmtModify":1634203422915,"author":{"id":"4094345516143680","authorId":"4094345516143680","name":"3f585b4d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094345516143680","authorIdStr":"4094345516143680"},"htmlText":"A lot of theory only. 😂","listText":"A lot of theory only. 😂","text":"A lot of theory only. 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825325428","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6284783,"gmtCreate":1634872282651,"gmtModify":1634872282651,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":825325428,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes I agree. 👍😊","text":"Yes I agree. 👍😊","html":"Yes I agree. 👍😊"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825320385,"gmtCreate":1634202876189,"gmtModify":1634202876189,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094906971334360","authorIdStr":"4094906971334360"},"htmlText":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","listText":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","text":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825320385","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825317780,"gmtCreate":1634200805757,"gmtModify":1634200805937,"author":{"id":"4088158505984320","authorId":"4088158505984320","name":"DenisL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d13e043c2c38e5d7bfd53d016d5c6bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088158505984320","authorIdStr":"4088158505984320"},"htmlText":"It never happened for the last 27 years. So what changed&nbsp;","listText":"It never happened for the last 27 years. So what changed&nbsp;","text":"It never happened for the last 27 years. So what changed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825317780","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825311548,"gmtCreate":1634200059098,"gmtModify":1634200059098,"author":{"id":"3574166160473753","authorId":"3574166160473753","name":"Ahvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd216b3fbf19641a7fe648254585ce79","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574166160473753","authorIdStr":"3574166160473753"},"htmlText":"Coool","listText":"Coool","text":"Coool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825311548","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6198710,"gmtCreate":1634222520081,"gmtModify":1634635809170,"authorId":4091089381144950,"author":{"id":4091089381144950,"idStr":"4091089381144950","authorId":4091089381144950,"name":"滚股怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67621b4133ca0db91bff9766152a448","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":825311548,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Cool","text":"Cool","html":"Cool"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825331796,"gmtCreate":1634199315881,"gmtModify":1634199315881,"author":{"id":"3581736647111231","authorId":"3581736647111231","name":"MYrocket","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0bde4772d2934a09fe0d71f75dbe43","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581736647111231","authorIdStr":"3581736647111231"},"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825331796","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825305882,"gmtCreate":1634197820721,"gmtModify":1634197820721,"author":{"id":"4087110108494710","authorId":"4087110108494710","name":"embraceit","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087110108494710","authorIdStr":"4087110108494710"},"htmlText":"Buy at your preferred price and the price you are comfortable with.","listText":"Buy at your preferred price and the price you are comfortable with.","text":"Buy at your preferred price and the price you are comfortable with.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825305882","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825309960,"gmtCreate":1634196658789,"gmtModify":1634196658789,"author":{"id":"3583206503018157","authorId":"3583206503018157","name":"bobsk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de805e0ba0f6207aca22cf1f4d68192f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583206503018157","authorIdStr":"3583206503018157"},"htmlText":"Just need to buy at a lower dip lolol","listText":"Just need to buy at a lower dip lolol","text":"Just need to buy at a lower dip lolol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825309960","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6194538,"gmtCreate":1634197647024,"gmtModify":1634636089052,"authorId":4087989241523320,"author":{"id":4087989241523320,"idStr":"4087989241523320","authorId":4087989241523320,"name":"skylander","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c70a5b34449eb6137e74ae1fefb2ea0","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":825309960,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825976773,"gmtCreate":1634196163015,"gmtModify":1634196163152,"author":{"id":"4089463306606890","authorId":"4089463306606890","name":"AxelOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaa7b50259b0329b74e09bc501ecd38","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089463306606890","authorIdStr":"4089463306606890"},"htmlText":"We need data to support the trend&nbsp;","listText":"We need data to support the trend&nbsp;","text":"We need data to support the trend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825976773","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825940796,"gmtCreate":1634193966230,"gmtModify":1634193966230,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"htmlText":"buying the dip is here to stay. with research into the company's financials, earnings, this may help us to avoid catching a falling knife. let's do our due diligence before we invest.&nbsp;","listText":"buying the dip is here to stay. with research into the company's financials, earnings, this may help us to avoid catching a falling knife. let's do our due diligence before we invest.&nbsp;","text":"buying the dip is here to stay. with research into the company's financials, earnings, this may help us to avoid catching a falling knife. let's do our due diligence before we invest.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825940796","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6198538,"gmtCreate":1634221765500,"gmtModify":1634635823548,"authorId":4091089381144950,"author":{"id":4091089381144950,"idStr":"4091089381144950","authorId":4091089381144950,"name":"滚股怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67621b4133ca0db91bff9766152a448","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":825940796,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ert","text":"Ert","html":"Ert"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825940469,"gmtCreate":1634193928571,"gmtModify":1634194615825,"author":{"id":"3569851182789090","authorId":"3569851182789090","name":"paracule","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d9a269e0ac6bd1c2db42f723aa55ad","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569851182789090","authorIdStr":"3569851182789090"},"htmlText":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","listText":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","text":"Buy the dip on uranium stocks work. Buy the dip on UPST, SE, amd looks fine. I'm green on them. Shut your bullshit article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825940469","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825951010,"gmtCreate":1634193024345,"gmtModify":1634193024640,"author":{"id":"3577178099298017","authorId":"3577178099298017","name":"DragonKC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90c63c67a4e5f91e9dc0159f5b853ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577178099298017","authorIdStr":"3577178099298017"},"htmlText":"Ha,&nbsp; buy the dip is not dead. There &nbsp;will always be sellers n buyers. That how stock markets work.&nbsp; It's&nbsp;up to investors &nbsp;when the buy the dip.&nbsp;","listText":"Ha,&nbsp; buy the dip is not dead. There &nbsp;will always be sellers n buyers. That how stock markets work.&nbsp; It's&nbsp;up to investors &nbsp;when the buy the dip.&nbsp;","text":"Ha, buy the dip is not dead. There will always be sellers n buyers. That how stock markets work. It's up to investors when the buy the dip.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825951010","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6194549,"gmtCreate":1634197803209,"gmtModify":1634636088066,"authorId":3581844295426037,"author":{"id":3581844295426037,"idStr":"3581844295426037","authorId":3581844295426037,"name":"hohok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9ae72338572431c58f911b40ae0f930","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":825951010,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825953118,"gmtCreate":1634192998830,"gmtModify":1634192998947,"author":{"id":"3582755552600107","authorId":"3582755552600107","name":"Xiaomiiiii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582755552600107","authorIdStr":"3582755552600107"},"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825953118","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":825922020,"gmtCreate":1634192544321,"gmtModify":1634192544455,"author":{"id":"3581714708617316","authorId":"3581714708617316","name":"CCYMoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5049d73c8031af1f31bdfad6bd82929f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581714708617316","authorIdStr":"3581714708617316"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825922020","repostId":1111412750,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-14 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li> <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li> <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.<blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.<blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.<blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.<blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.<blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.<blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.<blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.<blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.<blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.<blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.<blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.<blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":254,"commentSize":50,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}