Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.

MarketWatch2022-01-17

Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a ...

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CHanzhong
·2022-01-17
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Not much and quite a ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Get Ready for the Climb. 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Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-17 13:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nBond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click","article_id":"1108296248","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108296248","pubTimestamp":1642397704,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide c","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期中股市回报的描述。","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.What’s working?So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&P 500 are either flat or lower.Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.What’s not working?Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.What’s really not working?Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.Week aheadU.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.Notable U.S. corporate earningsTUESDAY:Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKRWEDNESDAY:Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter & Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FASTTHURSDAY:Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEYFRIDAY:Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBANU.S. economic reportsTuesdayEmpire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ETNAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.WednesdayBuilding permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.ThursdayInitial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.FridayLeading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":697167534,"gmtCreate":1642378388660,"gmtModify":1642378388924,"author":{"id":"3581983907375620","authorId":"3581983907375620","name":"CHanzhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d4de2fa337d285889b33cba3bb8ea1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581983907375620","idStr":"3581983907375620"},"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697167534","repostId":1108296248,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108296248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642397704,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108296248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-17 13:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108296248","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide c","content":"<html><head></head><body>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>2022年迄今为止，债券收益率再次上升。美国股市似乎很容易受到真正的调整。但是从新年仅仅两周的时间里，你能真正看出什么呢？不多，也不少。</body></html></blockquote>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.<blockquote>有一件事是肯定的：在疫情时代，轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了。基准利率将走高，而一直处于历史低位的债券收益率注定会同步上升。</blockquote>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.<blockquote>在1月25日至26日美联储今年首次政策会议之前的传统媒体封锁之前，美联储成员似乎无法更清楚地表明这一点。</blockquote>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.<blockquote>本周公布的美国消费者价格和生产者价格指数只是巩固了市场对美联储采取更激进或更鹰派货币政策的预期。</blockquote>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.<blockquote>唯一真正的问题是联邦公开市场委员会将在2022年加息多少次。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙暗示，七个可能是要击败的数字，基于市场的预测表明未来几个月联邦基金利率可能会上调三次。</blockquote>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.<blockquote>与此同时，周五下午10年期国债收益率为1.771%，这意味着收益率在年初的前10个交易日内攀升了约26个基点，这将是自1992年以来最强劲的涨幅。根据道琼斯市场数据。回到30年前，当年年初，10年期国债上涨32个基点至7%左右。</blockquote>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，往往对美联储利率变动更为敏感的2年期国债BX：TMUBMUSD02Y正在敲开1%的大门，今年迄今已上涨24个基点。</blockquote>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?<blockquote>但加息会导致股市走弱吗？</blockquote>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.<blockquote>事实证明，在我们似乎最早将于三月份进入的所谓加息周期期间，市场往往表现强劲，而不是糟糕。</blockquote>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.<blockquote>事实上，在美联储加息期间，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的平均回报率接近55%，标普500 SPX的平均回报率为62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数的平均正回报率为102.7%，根据道琼斯使用1989年的数据（见附表）。也许不足为奇的是，美联储降息也带来了强劲上涨，在美联储降息期间，道琼斯指数平均上涨23%，标普500上涨21%，纳斯达克上涨32%。</blockquote>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.<blockquote>降息往往发生在经济疲软的时期，而加息则发生在经济被认为过热的时期，这可能是降息期间股市表现差异的原因。</blockquote>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，在经济经历20世纪70年代式通胀的时期，很难看到市场表现出色。目前，根据2022年股市迄今为止的走势，看涨投资者不太可能获得两位数的回报。道琼斯指数下跌1.2%，标普500下跌2.2%，而纳斯达克综合指数1月份迄今已下跌4.8%。</blockquote>What’s working?<blockquote>什么在起作用？</blockquote>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，股市交易中获胜的是能源板块，标普500能源板块XX：SP500 XLE预计2022年迄今上涨16.4%，而金融股XX：SP500 XLF遥遥领先，上涨4.4%%。标普500其他九个板块要么持平，要么走低。</blockquote>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.<blockquote>与此同时，价值主题正在更加明显地卷土重来，根据iShares标普500价值ETF IVE的衡量，上周每周上涨0.1%，但本月迄今的回报率为1.2%。</blockquote>What’s not working?<blockquote>什么不起作用？</blockquote>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.<blockquote>到目前为止，随着债券收益率上升，增长因素正在受到打击，因为收益率的快速上升使其未来现金流的价值降低。较高的利率也阻碍了科技公司为股票回购提供资金的能力。广受欢迎的iShares标普500增长ETF IVW本周下跌0.6%，1月份迄今下跌5.1%。</blockquote>What’s really not working?<blockquote>什么真的不起作用？</blockquote>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.<blockquote>生物科技股正在遭受重创，iShares生物科技ETF IBB本周下跌1.1%，本月迄今下跌9%。</blockquote>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.<blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT是一只受欢迎的零售ETF，上周下跌4.1%，导致本月迄今下跌7.4%。</blockquote>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.<blockquote>Cathie Wood的旗舰ARK Innovation ETF ARKK本周收盘下跌近5%，1月份前两周下跌15.2%。该综合体中的其他基金，包括ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG和ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF，也同样忧郁。</blockquote>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.<blockquote>受欢迎的模因名称也受到重创，游戏驿站公司GME上周下跌17%，1月份下跌超过21%，而AMC院线控股公司AMC本周下跌近11%，本月迄今下跌超过24%。</blockquote>Week ahead<blockquote>未来一周</blockquote>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.<blockquote>美国市场周一休市以纪念马丁·路德·金假期。</blockquote>Notable U.S. corporate earnings<blockquote>值得注意的美国企业盈利</blockquote>TUESDAY:<blockquote>星期二：</blockquote>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR<blockquote>高盛集团GS、Truist Financial Corp.TFC、Signature Bank SBNY、PNC Financial PNC、J.B.亨特运输服务JBHT、盈透证券集团公司IBKR</blockquote>WEDNESDAY:<blockquote>星期三：</blockquote>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST<blockquote>摩根士丹利MS、美国银行BAC、美国合众银行。USB、道富银行STT、联合健康集团UNH、宝洁PG、金德摩根KMI、Fastenal Co.FAST</blockquote>THURSDAY:<blockquote>星期四：</blockquote>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY<blockquote>Netflix NFLX、联合航空控股UAL、美国航空AAL、贝克休斯BKR、Discover Financial Services DFS、CSX Corp.CSX、联合太平洋公司UNP、The Travelers Cos。TRV公司、Intuitive Surgical Inc.ISRG、KeyCorp。钥匙</blockquote>FRIDAY:<blockquote>星期五：</blockquote>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN<blockquote>斯伦贝谢SLB、亨廷顿银行股份公司HBAN</blockquote>U.S. economic reports<blockquote>美国经济报告</blockquote>Tuesday<blockquote>周二</blockquote>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET<blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:30公布的1月份帝国州制造业指数</blockquote>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.<blockquote>上午10点NAHB一月份房屋建筑商指数。</blockquote>Wednesday<blockquote>星期三</blockquote>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.<blockquote>12月份的建筑许可和开工时间为上午8:30。</blockquote>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.<blockquote>上午8:30费城联储1月份指数。</blockquote>Thursday<blockquote>星期四</blockquote>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.<blockquote>截至1月15日当周首次申请失业救济人数（以及1月8日持续申请失业救济人数）为上午8:30。</blockquote>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.<blockquote>上午10点12月份现房销售情况。</blockquote>Friday<blockquote>星期五</blockquote>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.<blockquote>上午10点12月份领先经济指标。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Get Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGet Ready for the Climb. Here’s What History Says about Stock-Market Returns during Fed Rate-hike Cycles.<blockquote>准备攀登。以下是历史对美联储加息周期期间股市回报的看法。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-01-17 13:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>2022年迄今为止，债券收益率再次上升。美国股市似乎很容易受到真正的调整。但是从新年仅仅两周的时间里，你能真正看出什么呢？不多，也不少。</body></html></blockquote>One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.<blockquote>有一件事是肯定的：在疫情时代，轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了。基准利率将走高，而一直处于历史低位的债券收益率注定会同步上升。</blockquote>It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.<blockquote>在1月25日至26日美联储今年首次政策会议之前的传统媒体封锁之前，美联储成员似乎无法更清楚地表明这一点。</blockquote>The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.<blockquote>本周公布的美国消费者价格和生产者价格指数只是巩固了市场对美联储采取更激进或更鹰派货币政策的预期。</blockquote>The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.<blockquote>唯一真正的问题是联邦公开市场委员会将在2022年加息多少次。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙暗示，七个可能是要击败的数字，基于市场的预测表明未来几个月联邦基金利率可能会上调三次。</blockquote>Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.<blockquote>与此同时，周五下午10年期国债收益率为1.771%，这意味着收益率在年初的前10个交易日内攀升了约26个基点，这将是自1992年以来最强劲的涨幅。根据道琼斯市场数据。回到30年前，当年年初，10年期国债上涨32个基点至7%左右。</blockquote>The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，往往对美联储利率变动更为敏感的2年期国债BX：TMUBMUSD02Y正在敲开1%的大门，今年迄今已上涨24个基点。</blockquote>But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?<blockquote>但加息会导致股市走弱吗？</blockquote>As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.<blockquote>事实证明，在我们似乎最早将于三月份进入的所谓加息周期期间，市场往往表现强劲，而不是糟糕。</blockquote>In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&amp;P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&amp;P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.<blockquote>事实上，在美联储加息期间，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯的平均回报率接近55%，标普500 SPX的平均回报率为62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数的平均正回报率为102.7%，根据道琼斯使用1989年的数据（见附表）。也许不足为奇的是，美联储降息也带来了强劲上涨，在美联储降息期间，道琼斯指数平均上涨23%，标普500上涨21%，纳斯达克上涨32%。</blockquote>Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.<blockquote>降息往往发生在经济疲软的时期，而加息则发生在经济被认为过热的时期，这可能是降息期间股市表现差异的原因。</blockquote>To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&amp;P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，在经济经历20世纪70年代式通胀的时期，很难看到市场表现出色。目前，根据2022年股市迄今为止的走势，看涨投资者不太可能获得两位数的回报。道琼斯指数下跌1.2%，标普500下跌2.2%，而纳斯达克综合指数1月份迄今已下跌4.8%。</blockquote>What’s working?<blockquote>什么在起作用？</blockquote>So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&amp;P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&amp;P 500 are either flat or lower.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，股市交易中获胜的是能源板块，标普500能源板块XX：SP500 XLE预计2022年迄今上涨16.4%，而金融股XX：SP500 XLF遥遥领先，上涨4.4%%。标普500其他九个板块要么持平，要么走低。</blockquote>Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&amp;P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.<blockquote>与此同时，价值主题正在更加明显地卷土重来，根据iShares标普500价值ETF IVE的衡量，上周每周上涨0.1%，但本月迄今的回报率为1.2%。</blockquote>What’s not working?<blockquote>什么不起作用？</blockquote>Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.<blockquote>到目前为止，随着债券收益率上升，增长因素正在受到打击，因为收益率的快速上升使其未来现金流的价值降低。较高的利率也阻碍了科技公司为股票回购提供资金的能力。广受欢迎的iShares标普500增长ETF IVW本周下跌0.6%，1月份迄今下跌5.1%。</blockquote>What’s really not working?<blockquote>什么真的不起作用？</blockquote>Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.<blockquote>生物科技股正在遭受重创，iShares生物科技ETF IBB本周下跌1.1%，本月迄今下跌9%。</blockquote>And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.<blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P Retail ETF XRT是一只受欢迎的零售ETF，上周下跌4.1%，导致本月迄今下跌7.4%。</blockquote>And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.<blockquote>Cathie Wood的旗舰ARK Innovation ETF ARKK本周收盘下跌近5%，1月份前两周下跌15.2%。该综合体中的其他基金，包括ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG和ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF，也同样忧郁。</blockquote>And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.<blockquote>受欢迎的模因名称也受到重创，游戏驿站公司GME上周下跌17%，1月份下跌超过21%，而AMC院线控股公司AMC本周下跌近11%，本月迄今下跌超过24%。</blockquote>Week ahead<blockquote>未来一周</blockquote>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.<blockquote>美国市场周一休市以纪念马丁·路德·金假期。</blockquote>Notable U.S. corporate earnings<blockquote>值得注意的美国企业盈利</blockquote>TUESDAY:<blockquote>星期二：</blockquote>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR<blockquote>高盛集团GS、Truist Financial Corp.TFC、Signature Bank SBNY、PNC Financial PNC、J.B.亨特运输服务JBHT、盈透证券集团公司IBKR</blockquote>WEDNESDAY:<blockquote>星期三：</blockquote>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST<blockquote>摩根士丹利MS、美国银行BAC、美国合众银行。USB、道富银行STT、联合健康集团UNH、宝洁PG、金德摩根KMI、Fastenal Co.FAST</blockquote>THURSDAY:<blockquote>星期四：</blockquote>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY<blockquote>Netflix NFLX、联合航空控股UAL、美国航空AAL、贝克休斯BKR、Discover Financial Services DFS、CSX Corp.CSX、联合太平洋公司UNP、The Travelers Cos。TRV公司、Intuitive Surgical Inc.ISRG、KeyCorp。钥匙</blockquote>FRIDAY:<blockquote>星期五：</blockquote>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN<blockquote>斯伦贝谢SLB、亨廷顿银行股份公司HBAN</blockquote>U.S. economic reports<blockquote>美国经济报告</blockquote>Tuesday<blockquote>周二</blockquote>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET<blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:30公布的1月份帝国州制造业指数</blockquote>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.<blockquote>上午10点NAHB一月份房屋建筑商指数。</blockquote>Wednesday<blockquote>星期三</blockquote>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.<blockquote>12月份的建筑许可和开工时间为上午8:30。</blockquote>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.<blockquote>上午8:30费城联储1月份指数。</blockquote>Thursday<blockquote>星期四</blockquote>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.<blockquote>截至1月15日当周首次申请失业救济人数（以及1月8日持续申请失业救济人数）为上午8:30。</blockquote>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.<blockquote>上午10点12月份现房销售情况。</blockquote>Friday<blockquote>星期五</blockquote>Leading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.<blockquote>上午10点12月份领先经济指标。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108296248","content_text":"Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year? Not much and quite a lot.One thing feels assured: the days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. Benchmark interest rates are headed higher and bond yields, which have been anchored at historically low levels, are destined to rise in tandem.It seemed as if Federal Reserve members couldn’t make that point any clearer this past week, ahead of the traditional media blackout that precedes the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 25-26.The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022. JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon intimated that seven might be the number to beat, with market-based projections pointing to the potential for three increases to the federal-funds rate in the coming months.Meanwhile, yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon, which means that yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year, which would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year.The 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which tends to be more sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves, is knocking on the door of 1%, up 24 basis points so far this year, FactSet data show.But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.In fact, during a Fed rate-hike period the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a period of Fed rate cuts.Interest rate cuts tend to occur during periods when the economy is weak and rate hikes when the economy is viewed as too hot by some measure, which may account for the disparity in stock market performance during periods when interest-rate reductions occur.To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance during a period in which the economy experiences 1970s-style inflation. Right now, it feels unlikely that bullish investors will get a whiff of double-digit returns based on the way stocks are shaping up so far in 2022. The Dow is down 1.2%, the S&P 500 is off 2.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down a whopping 4.8% thus far in January.What’s working?So far this year, winning stock market trades have been in energy, with the S&P 500’s energy sector XX:SP500 XLE looking at a 16.4% advance so far in 2022, while financials XX:SP500 XLF are running a distant second, up 4.4%. The other nine sectors of the S&P 500 are either flat or lower.Meanwhile, value themes are making a more pronounced comeback, eking out a 0.1% weekly gain last week, as measured by the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF IVE, but month to date the return is 1.2%.What’s not working?Growth factors are getting hammered thus far as bond yields rise because a rapid rise in yields makes their future cash flows less valuable. Higher interest rates also hinder technology companies’ ability to fund stock buy backs. The popular iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW is down 0.6% on the week and down 5.1% in January so far.What’s really not working?Biotech stocks are getting shellacked, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB down 1.1% on the week and 9% on the month so far.And a popular retail-oriented ETF, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT tumbled 4.1% last week, contributing to a 7.4% decline in the month to date.And Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF ARKK finished the week down nearly 5% for a 15.2% decline in the first two weeks of January. Other funds in the complex, including ARK Genomic Revolution ETF ARKG and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF are similarly woebegone.And popular meme names also are getting hammered, with GameStop Corp. GME down 17% last week and off over 21% in January, while AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC sank nearly 11% on the week and more than 24% in the month to date.Week aheadU.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.Notable U.S. corporate earningsTUESDAY:Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKRWEDNESDAY:Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter & Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FASTTHURSDAY:Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEYFRIDAY:Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBANU.S. economic reportsTuesdayEmpire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ETNAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.WednesdayBuilding permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.ThursdayInitial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.FridayLeading economic indicators for December at 10 a.m.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":38,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}