Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear

TheStreet2021-06-01

There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues? Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu ...

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173

Vivberry
·2021-06-02
Good dip coming. While it might recover, I do not see huge growth potential for Apple.
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Vivberry
·2021-06-02
Good dip coming. While it might recover, I do not see huge growth potential for Apple.
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Chris68
·2021-06-02
Questions to ponder: 1. Will Apple earning declines 30% this year? 2. What impact may affect AAPL stock price? New OS? Apple Pay? New 5G iPhone? 3. Competitors have a better phone? Like Samsung’s or Huawei’s phone camera, OS, 5G with better features and yet cheaper?4. the recent article by DW about Denmark's complicity in the NSA spying scandal against German politicians has been revealed in a joint European media investigation. Will this affect communication sectors?As a retail investor, I have no clue at all but hope to hear the view of other investors? Please share your thoughts and comments?Thanks and let’s prosper together, no bear please!
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LimLS
·2021-06-02
Really need a bigger market correction to get AAPL to 90. But a 10-15% drop is possible though. Just buy slowly
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neoyoucai
·2021-06-02
Is apple stock worth buying for long term?
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- kenong62:
  yeah
  but at the right price
  2021-06-02
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koolgal
·2021-06-02
Tread carefully with caution. Please like and comment. Thanks
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- kenong62:
  done
  2021-06-02
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Pixiestars
·2021-06-02
How is that possible when many are stuck in the Apple ecosystem
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CookieMon12
·2021-06-02
Hmm $90 is the lowest prediction for Apple by analysts. If this were to happen i think other companies will also suffer the same…
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GCL08
·2021-06-02
Highly unlikely....if it does drop; it means buying opp for me 💪
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小虎一飞冲天
·2021-06-02
🍎
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LWayne
·2021-06-02
Rotation
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- random1990:
  commented
  2021-06-02
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WCS1981
·2021-06-02
Waiting to buy
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- JonLucky:
  good luck
  2021-06-02
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KW1
·2021-06-02
Oh
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spaceGRN
·2021-06-02
Whether is red green or rotten apple.. buy buy buy
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Calvingoh93
·2021-06-02
Oh no. 😭😭
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- flyingsimon:
  Can be done?
  2021-06-04
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- flyingsimon:
  Dunno
  2021-06-04
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- flyingsimon:
  No Way
  2021-06-03
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edgetrader
·2021-06-02
AppleCar coming soon?
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Eaglewings
·2021-06-02
Noticed that the analysis is looking only intothe next 9 to 12 months. Apple investors should be looking into its future way beyond that.
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ArchieM
·2021-06-02
Apple has good products that are playing Catch up.
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TerenceD
·2021-06-02
That’s 👍🏻
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Jackytan
·2021-06-02
Sounds like short term thinking
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New Street’s Pierre Ferragu ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? 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Inside The Mind Of A Bear\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-01 19:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear>TheStreet</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","article_id":"1107522849","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"thestreet.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"苹果股市将下挫30%？在熊的头脑里","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":113502315,"gmtCreate":1622623645737,"gmtModify":1634099836994,"author":{"id":"3580092330105291","authorId":"3580092330105291","name":"Vivberry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8a4ce0041edafbf8e072bb66c313e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580092330105291","idStr":"3580092330105291"},"htmlText":"Good dip coming. While it might recover, I do not see huge growth potential for Apple.","listText":"Good dip coming. While it might recover, I do not see huge growth potential for Apple.","text":"Good dip coming. While it might recover, I do not see huge growth potential for Apple.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113502315","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113508649,"gmtCreate":1622623555081,"gmtModify":1634099837579,"author":{"id":"3580092330105291","authorId":"3580092330105291","name":"Vivberry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8a4ce0041edafbf8e072bb66c313e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580092330105291","idStr":"3580092330105291"},"htmlText":"Good dip coming. While it might recover, I do not see huge growth potential for Apple.","listText":"Good dip coming. While it might recover, I do not see huge growth potential for Apple.","text":"Good dip coming. While it might recover, I do not see huge growth potential for Apple.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113508649","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113609665,"gmtCreate":1622607363657,"gmtModify":1631884478899,"author":{"id":"3575974639321365","authorId":"3575974639321365","name":"Chris68","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae39a12c3ba237f3b001689ec9a549b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575974639321365","idStr":"3575974639321365"},"htmlText":"Questions to ponder:&nbsp;1. Will&nbsp;Apple earning declines 30% this year?&nbsp;2. What impact may affect AAPL stock price? New OS? Apple Pay? New 5G&nbsp;iPhone?&nbsp;3.&nbsp;Competitors have a better phone?&nbsp;&nbsp;Like Samsung’s&nbsp;or&nbsp;Huawei’s phone&nbsp;camera, OS,&nbsp;5G with better features and yet cheaper?4. the&nbsp;recent article by&nbsp;DW about Denmark's complicity in the NSA spying scandal against German politicians has been revealed in a joint European media investigation. Will this affect communication sectors?As a retail&nbsp;investor, I have no clue at all&nbsp;but hope to hear the&nbsp;view of other&nbsp;investors?&nbsp;Please share your&nbsp;thoughts and comments?Thanks and let’s prosper together, no bear&nbsp;please!","listText":"Questions to ponder:&nbsp;1. Will&nbsp;Apple earning declines 30% this year?&nbsp;2. What impact may affect AAPL stock price? New OS? Apple Pay? New 5G&nbsp;iPhone?&nbsp;3.&nbsp;Competitors have a better phone?&nbsp;&nbsp;Like Samsung’s&nbsp;or&nbsp;Huawei’s phone&nbsp;camera, OS,&nbsp;5G with better features and yet cheaper?4. the&nbsp;recent article by&nbsp;DW about Denmark's complicity in the NSA spying scandal against German politicians has been revealed in a joint European media investigation. Will this affect communication sectors?As a retail&nbsp;investor, I have no clue at all&nbsp;but hope to hear the&nbsp;view of other&nbsp;investors?&nbsp;Please share your&nbsp;thoughts and comments?Thanks and let’s prosper together, no bear&nbsp;please!","text":"Questions to ponder: 1. Will Apple earning declines 30% this year? 2. What impact may affect AAPL stock price? New OS? Apple Pay? New 5G iPhone? 3. Competitors have a better phone? Like Samsung’s or Huawei’s phone camera, OS, 5G with better features and yet cheaper?4. the recent article by DW about Denmark's complicity in the NSA spying scandal against German politicians has been revealed in a joint European media investigation. Will this affect communication sectors?As a retail investor, I have no clue at all but hope to hear the view of other investors? Please share your thoughts and comments?Thanks and let’s prosper together, no bear please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113609665","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113871508,"gmtCreate":1622606770904,"gmtModify":1631884221100,"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572923586954779","idStr":"3572923586954779"},"htmlText":"Really need a bigger market correction to get AAPL to 90. But a 10-15% drop is possible though. Just buy slowly","listText":"Really need a bigger market correction to get AAPL to 90. But a 10-15% drop is possible though. Just buy slowly","text":"Really need a bigger market correction to get AAPL to 90. But a 10-15% drop is possible though. Just buy slowly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113871508","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113841150,"gmtCreate":1622605931770,"gmtModify":1634099988483,"author":{"id":"3577323007405835","authorId":"3577323007405835","name":"neoyoucai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577323007405835","idStr":"3577323007405835"},"htmlText":"Is apple stock worth buying for long term?","listText":"Is apple stock worth buying for long term?","text":"Is apple stock worth buying for long term?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113841150","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4541182,"gmtCreate":1622607099666,"gmtModify":1635391640509,"authorId":3574928367638029,"author":{"id":3574928367638029,"idStr":"3574928367638029","authorId":3574928367638029,"name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113841150,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yeah \nbut at the right price","text":"yeah \nbut at the right price","html":"yeah \nbut at the right price"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113858964,"gmtCreate":1622605208358,"gmtModify":1622605208358,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"htmlText":"Tread carefully with caution.&nbsp; Please like and comment.&nbsp; Thanks","listText":"Tread carefully with caution.&nbsp; Please like and comment.&nbsp; Thanks","text":"Tread carefully with caution. Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113858964","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4541184,"gmtCreate":1622607110714,"gmtModify":1635391640289,"authorId":3574928367638029,"author":{"id":3574928367638029,"idStr":"3574928367638029","authorId":3574928367638029,"name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113858964,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113865535,"gmtCreate":1622604068127,"gmtModify":1634100004864,"author":{"id":"3581832720375359","authorId":"3581832720375359","name":"Pixiestars","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581832720375359","idStr":"3581832720375359"},"htmlText":"How is that possible when many are stuck in the Apple ecosystem","listText":"How is that possible when many are stuck in the Apple ecosystem","text":"How is that possible when many are stuck in the Apple ecosystem","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113865535","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113816500,"gmtCreate":1622602663700,"gmtModify":1634100019561,"author":{"id":"3581997496673642","authorId":"3581997496673642","name":"CookieMon12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412f1a182e016f0fe66376d12556dee","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581997496673642","idStr":"3581997496673642"},"htmlText":"Hmm $90 is the lowest prediction for Apple by analysts. If this were to happen i think other companies&nbsp;will also suffer the same…","listText":"Hmm $90 is the lowest prediction for Apple by analysts. If this were to happen i think other companies&nbsp;will also suffer the same…","text":"Hmm $90 is the lowest prediction for Apple by analysts. If this were to happen i think other companies will also suffer the same…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113816500","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113830317,"gmtCreate":1622601761239,"gmtModify":1634100029526,"author":{"id":"3579045920422452","authorId":"3579045920422452","name":"GCL08","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3433a6063e0b2ab82ed571a0790eb790","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579045920422452","idStr":"3579045920422452"},"htmlText":"Highly unlikely....if it does drop; it means buying opp for me 💪","listText":"Highly unlikely....if it does drop; it means buying opp for me 💪","text":"Highly unlikely....if it does drop; it means buying opp for me 💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113830317","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113895285,"gmtCreate":1622601589947,"gmtModify":1634100031876,"author":{"id":"3582098623642517","authorId":"3582098623642517","name":"小虎一飞冲天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a55a61195830e019abf5d3cc69681b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582098623642517","idStr":"3582098623642517"},"htmlText":"🍎","listText":"🍎","text":"🍎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113895285","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113126143,"gmtCreate":1622598933782,"gmtModify":1634100066277,"author":{"id":"3564307384077743","authorId":"3564307384077743","name":"LWayne","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3564307384077743","idStr":"3564307384077743"},"htmlText":"Rotation","listText":"Rotation","text":"Rotation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113126143","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4539894,"gmtCreate":1622600481193,"gmtModify":1635391749707,"authorId":3575979610512628,"author":{"id":3575979610512628,"idStr":"3575979610512628","authorId":3575979610512628,"name":"random1990","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e75db31595da3aeb6d04e8342820d05","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113126143,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"commented","text":"commented","html":"commented"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113181513,"gmtCreate":1622597987232,"gmtModify":1634100079889,"author":{"id":"3582764273979695","authorId":"3582764273979695","name":"WCS1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98e28d5b1695429dd1657ecc78f93f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582764273979695","idStr":"3582764273979695"},"htmlText":"Waiting to buy","listText":"Waiting to buy","text":"Waiting to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113181513","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4544811,"gmtCreate":1622628251359,"gmtModify":1635391359748,"authorId":3573703375513385,"author":{"id":3573703375513385,"idStr":"3573703375513385","authorId":3573703375513385,"name":"JonLucky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15afb66e92e4e4d6d1a8e9b7854e9d5e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113181513,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"good luck","text":"good luck","html":"good luck"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113198925,"gmtCreate":1622596804467,"gmtModify":1634100102351,"author":{"id":"3563714281601583","authorId":"3563714281601583","name":"KW1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/094e3f8fd8b3de3da976515926ed1403","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3563714281601583","idStr":"3563714281601583"},"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113198925","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113354558,"gmtCreate":1622595672174,"gmtModify":1634100129619,"author":{"id":"3584063457502160","authorId":"3584063457502160","name":"spaceGRN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9892e24b16b97bdcd552a3dc221e8ae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3584063457502160","idStr":"3584063457502160"},"htmlText":"Whether is red green or rotten apple.. buy buy buy","listText":"Whether is red green or rotten apple.. buy buy buy","text":"Whether is red green or rotten apple.. buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113354558","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113354338,"gmtCreate":1622595635224,"gmtModify":1631893670651,"author":{"id":"3583902158543371","authorId":"3583902158543371","name":"Calvingoh93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f39861e6ea06d8827da08f30bde8394c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583902158543371","idStr":"3583902158543371"},"htmlText":"Oh no. 😭😭","listText":"Oh no. 😭😭","text":"Oh no. 😭😭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113354338","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4573992,"gmtCreate":1622776231689,"gmtModify":1631893670799,"authorId":3582676161346158,"author":{"id":3582676161346158,"idStr":"3582676161346158","authorId":3582676161346158,"name":"flyingsimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ff5f4cfd6f62deb6f4d3345b5207b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113354338,"type":1,"supId":4541409,"prevId":0,"content":"Can be done?","text":"Can be done?","html":"Can be done?"},{"id":4573986,"gmtCreate":1622776218012,"gmtModify":1631893670776,"authorId":3582676161346158,"author":{"id":3582676161346158,"idStr":"3582676161346158","authorId":3582676161346158,"name":"flyingsimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ff5f4cfd6f62deb6f4d3345b5207b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113354338,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Dunno","text":"Dunno","html":"Dunno"},{"id":4559438,"gmtCreate":1622703155413,"gmtModify":1631893670752,"authorId":3582676161346158,"author":{"id":3582676161346158,"idStr":"3582676161346158","authorId":3582676161346158,"name":"flyingsimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ff5f4cfd6f62deb6f4d3345b5207b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113354338,"type":1,"supId":4541409,"prevId":0,"content":"No Way","text":"No Way","html":"No Way"},{"id":4544326,"gmtCreate":1622625707422,"gmtModify":1631893670730,"authorId":3583902158543371,"author":{"id":3583902158543371,"idStr":"3583902158543371","authorId":3583902158543371,"name":"Calvingoh93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f39861e6ea06d8827da08f30bde8394c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3582676161346158,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3582676161346158,"idStr":"3582676161346158","authorId":3582676161346158,"name":"flyingsimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ff5f4cfd6f62deb6f4d3345b5207b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":113354338,"type":1,"supId":4541409,"prevId":4544257,"content":"How ?","text":"How ?","html":"How ?"},{"id":4544257,"gmtCreate":1622625407977,"gmtModify":1631893670707,"authorId":3582676161346158,"author":{"id":3582676161346158,"idStr":"3582676161346158","authorId":3582676161346158,"name":"flyingsimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ff5f4cfd6f62deb6f4d3345b5207b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":113354338,"type":1,"supId":4541409,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113352107,"gmtCreate":1622595579309,"gmtModify":1634100131817,"author":{"id":"3570751249933438","authorId":"3570751249933438","name":"edgetrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0e920d94a7891f4c6393f3e5510ccc","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570751249933438","idStr":"3570751249933438"},"htmlText":"AppleCar coming soon?","listText":"AppleCar coming soon?","text":"AppleCar coming soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113352107","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113323108,"gmtCreate":1622595049304,"gmtModify":1634100143711,"author":{"id":"3574484198588936","authorId":"3574484198588936","name":"Eaglewings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532f4e45cb093f21d9a38905184a4bb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574484198588936","idStr":"3574484198588936"},"htmlText":"Noticed that the analysis is looking only intothe next 9 to 12 months. Apple investors should be looking into&nbsp;its future way beyond that.&nbsp;","listText":"Noticed that the analysis is looking only intothe next 9 to 12 months. Apple investors should be looking into&nbsp;its future way beyond that.&nbsp;","text":"Noticed that the analysis is looking only intothe next 9 to 12 months. Apple investors should be looking into its future way beyond that.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113323108","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113314907,"gmtCreate":1622594061509,"gmtModify":1634100165441,"author":{"id":"3582862528335475","authorId":"3582862528335475","name":"ArchieM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4a38ed04797f510c542a9759486c75b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582862528335475","idStr":"3582862528335475"},"htmlText":"Apple has&nbsp;good products that are playing Catch up.&nbsp;","listText":"Apple has&nbsp;good products that are playing Catch up.&nbsp;","text":"Apple has good products that are playing Catch up.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113314907","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113920215,"gmtCreate":1622591454137,"gmtModify":1634100233237,"author":{"id":"3573966231987456","authorId":"3573966231987456","name":"TerenceD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046d570a2a5c6793332b041c7628d5c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573966231987456","idStr":"3573966231987456"},"htmlText":"That’s 👍🏻&nbsp;","listText":"That’s 👍🏻&nbsp;","text":"That’s 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113920215","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":113985940,"gmtCreate":1622590977180,"gmtModify":1634100245452,"author":{"id":"3555065151273039","authorId":"3555065151273039","name":"Jackytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/619b88f86d5ffa77c2e81644af36a492","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3555065151273039","idStr":"3555065151273039"},"htmlText":"Sounds like short term thinking","listText":"Sounds like short term thinking","text":"Sounds like short term thinking","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113985940","repostId":1107522849,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-06-01 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?<blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.<blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.<blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Wall Street bear.<blockquote>图1：华尔街熊。</blockquote> “12S cycle” coming up?<blockquote>“12S周期”即将来临？</blockquote> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.<blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.<blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:<blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote> “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.” Plugging some numbers<blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”插入一些数字</blockquote> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.<blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.<blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.<blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s opinion<blockquote>苹果专家的意见</blockquote> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.<blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\">Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.<blockquote>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</blockquote> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.<blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:<blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li> <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.<blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":173,"commentSize":94,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}