Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals

marketwatch2021-03-26

The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for ...

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Lifestyle
·2021-03-26
The market will pick up strongly start of April after 1st quarter close. Institutional Funds will pour in to perform again 😉
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Ahvi
·2021-03-26
Let’s get to new highs :-)
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JohnM
·2021-03-26
like and comment
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- Bibop:
  Sure
  2021-03-26
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- JohnM:
  thanks
  2021-03-26
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- JohnM:
  thanks
  2021-03-30
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Trader2747
·2021-03-26
Hi
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ahswee
·2021-03-26
Pullbacks = opportunities
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- TristanTan:
  Agreed
  2021-03-26
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Kimsu
·2021-03-26
Yeah
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Slowdownpok
·2021-03-26
Continue stay bullish but definitely need to be careful to pick which companies to invest; not betting.
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Charmander
·2021-03-26
+1
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Trk
·2021-03-26
Please like and comment! Will do the same for you.
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- jijimo:
  Comment
  2021-03-26
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- Ahvi:
  Ok
  2021-03-26
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zynn
·2021-03-26
Yayyy
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f123bb0
·2021-03-26
Pls like and comment.
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- Aaronykc:
  Please comment back
  2021-03-26
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- f123bb0:
  thanks
  2021-03-26
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- madwolf:
  mmhmm
  2021-03-26
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查看更多 1 条评论
Tony0623
·2021-03-26
good
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Gari
·2021-03-26
Comment pls
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- Aaronykc:
  Like please
  2021-03-26
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- 乐乐兄弟:
  👍
  2021-03-26
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SekharS
·2021-03-26
[龇牙]
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Tony0623
·2021-03-26
cool
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KinKat
·2021-03-26
I prefer to maintain a "take profit whenever possible" position [财迷]
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- MarketPulse:
  Ya, if you have set the margin you want to take, as soon as it hits the prIce you can take the profit. But most investors did not have this discipline.
  2021-03-26
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SHAUN
·2021-03-26
Seems to be double bottom pattern forming. Bullish!
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Mq322
·2021-03-26
BUY BUY BUY
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Kelvinyoon26
·2021-03-26
Buy!!
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ALT
·2021-03-26
Please comment? Thanks
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- Kelvinyoon26:
  👍
  2021-03-26
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- 乐乐兄弟:
  👍
  2021-03-26
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This is not a good scenario for ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","article_id":"1100799979","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"面对一些新的抛售信号，保持对股市的看涨","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. 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Institutional&nbsp;Funds will pour in to perform again 😉","listText":"The market will pick up strongly start of April after 1st quarter close. Institutional&nbsp;Funds will pour in to perform again 😉","text":"The market will pick up strongly start of April after 1st quarter close. Institutional Funds will pour in to perform again 😉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356304353","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356997115,"gmtCreate":1616747463237,"gmtModify":1616747463237,"author":{"id":"3574166160473753","authorId":"3574166160473753","name":"Ahvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd216b3fbf19641a7fe648254585ce79","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574166160473753","authorIdStr":"3574166160473753"},"htmlText":"Let’s get to new highs :-)","listText":"Let’s get to new highs :-)","text":"Let’s get to new highs :-)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356997115","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356068080,"gmtCreate":1616743439840,"gmtModify":1634524258119,"author":{"id":"3574985450542136","authorId":"3574985450542136","name":"JohnM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2ba12f0b2765e8293d3b359b6e4b6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574985450542136","authorIdStr":"3574985450542136"},"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356068080","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3889420,"gmtCreate":1616746978460,"gmtModify":1635748867385,"authorId":3574823733614024,"author":{"id":3574823733614024,"idStr":"3574823733614024","authorId":3574823733614024,"name":"Bibop","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9cf1e4cff885e3bf9913697004534b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":356068080,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sure ","text":"Sure ","html":"Sure "},{"id":3889467,"gmtCreate":1616747173077,"gmtModify":1635748864024,"authorId":3574985450542136,"author":{"id":3574985450542136,"idStr":"3574985450542136","authorId":3574985450542136,"name":"JohnM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2ba12f0b2765e8293d3b359b6e4b6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":356068080,"type":1,"supId":3889420,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"},{"id":3917982,"gmtCreate":1617072494281,"gmtModify":1635746712721,"authorId":3574985450542136,"author":{"id":3574985450542136,"idStr":"3574985450542136","authorId":3574985450542136,"name":"JohnM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2ba12f0b2765e8293d3b359b6e4b6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":356068080,"type":1,"supId":3889420,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356004332,"gmtCreate":1616737775526,"gmtModify":1634524275656,"author":{"id":"3556686860609721","authorId":"3556686860609721","name":"Trader2747","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65c7dffb0ffb07fc49c8c8d10be6be5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3556686860609721","authorIdStr":"3556686860609721"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356004332","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356008696,"gmtCreate":1616737355615,"gmtModify":1634524277201,"author":{"id":"3569301571685332","authorId":"3569301571685332","name":"ahswee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9d1562760402e99c23de8c7a82773","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3569301571685332","authorIdStr":"3569301571685332"},"htmlText":"Pullbacks = opportunities","listText":"Pullbacks = opportunities","text":"Pullbacks = opportunities","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356008696","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3888582,"gmtCreate":1616737502503,"gmtModify":1635748909942,"authorId":3579729998379743,"author":{"id":3579729998379743,"idStr":"3579729998379743","authorId":3579729998379743,"name":"TristanTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63980a454340e85f4dc20683de86da2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":356008696,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","html":"Agreed"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356001044,"gmtCreate":1616737102988,"gmtModify":1634524277787,"author":{"id":"3576547785025400","authorId":"3576547785025400","name":"Kimsu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3576547785025400","authorIdStr":"3576547785025400"},"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356001044","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":356009986,"gmtCreate":1616736922545,"gmtModify":1634524278850,"author":{"id":"3551139414186896","authorId":"3551139414186896","name":"Slowdownpok","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3551139414186896","authorIdStr":"3551139414186896"},"htmlText":"Continue stay bullish but definitely need to be careful to pick which companies to invest; not betting.","listText":"Continue stay bullish but definitely need to be careful to pick which companies to invest; not betting.","text":"Continue stay bullish but definitely need to be careful to pick which companies to invest; not betting.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356009986","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358779295,"gmtCreate":1616735718318,"gmtModify":1634524283536,"author":{"id":"3569141159891948","authorId":"3569141159891948","name":"Charmander","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dea3baed833b71ae5d4720d4feb64f9","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3569141159891948","authorIdStr":"3569141159891948"},"htmlText":"+1","listText":"+1","text":"+1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358779295","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358779908,"gmtCreate":1616735698304,"gmtModify":1634524283777,"author":{"id":"3575601035249258","authorId":"3575601035249258","name":"Trk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c696f57ad24f93a635678126f3d58bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3575601035249258","authorIdStr":"3575601035249258"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment! Will do the same for you.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment! Will do the same for you.&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment! Will do the same for you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358779908","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3888425,"gmtCreate":1616735726578,"gmtModify":1635748922373,"authorId":3577075923922212,"author":{"id":3577075923922212,"idStr":"3577075923922212","authorId":3577075923922212,"name":"jijimo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22bac6d28b6513739fc962def9c071bd","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358779908,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment","text":"Comment","html":"Comment"},{"id":3889513,"gmtCreate":1616747434731,"gmtModify":1635748861129,"authorId":3574166160473753,"author":{"id":3574166160473753,"idStr":"3574166160473753","authorId":3574166160473753,"name":"Ahvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd216b3fbf19641a7fe648254585ce79","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358779908,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358770552,"gmtCreate":1616735644276,"gmtModify":1634524284017,"author":{"id":"3573562366844183","authorId":"3573562366844183","name":"zynn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd420c10228c1f9662648eaae967a255","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3573562366844183","authorIdStr":"3573562366844183"},"htmlText":"Yayyy","listText":"Yayyy","text":"Yayyy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358770552","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358744029,"gmtCreate":1616735359961,"gmtModify":1634524285063,"author":{"id":"3575498845973925","authorId":"3575498845973925","name":"f123bb0","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3575498845973925","authorIdStr":"3575498845973925"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comment.","listText":"Pls like and comment.","text":"Pls like and comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358744029","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3888391,"gmtCreate":1616735437820,"gmtModify":1635748924691,"authorId":3571535693267201,"author":{"id":3571535693267201,"idStr":"3571535693267201","authorId":3571535693267201,"name":"Aaronykc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6fb0a4f08d4e7b8733e7ebc2445aad5","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358744029,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Please comment back","text":"Please comment back","html":"Please comment back"},{"id":3888396,"gmtCreate":1616735464973,"gmtModify":1635748924302,"authorId":3575498845973925,"author":{"id":3575498845973925,"idStr":"3575498845973925","authorId":3575498845973925,"name":"f123bb0","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358744029,"type":1,"supId":3888391,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"},{"id":3888416,"gmtCreate":1616735624574,"gmtModify":1635748922860,"authorId":3577266896015879,"author":{"id":3577266896015879,"idStr":"3577266896015879","authorId":3577266896015879,"name":"madwolf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc9f21405c23bcf907147745c71fc934","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358744029,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"mmhmm","text":"mmhmm","html":"mmhmm"},{"id":3888431,"gmtCreate":1616735790636,"gmtModify":1635748921886,"authorId":3577278649305758,"author":{"id":3577278649305758,"idStr":"3577278649305758","authorId":3577278649305758,"name":"kawa86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb30220b2a555e9c653be64d2421ff9c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358744029,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like","text":"like","html":"like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358745164,"gmtCreate":1616735302358,"gmtModify":1634524285284,"author":{"id":"3579165302374821","authorId":"3579165302374821","name":"Tony0623","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dac78108a5811a8c221da360733dfd","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3579165302374821","authorIdStr":"3579165302374821"},"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358745164","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358742420,"gmtCreate":1616735283460,"gmtModify":1634524285524,"author":{"id":"3576656671299150","authorId":"3576656671299150","name":"Gari","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e82d9a5d72f2d905dd84f6bea5959cc8","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3576656671299150","authorIdStr":"3576656671299150"},"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358742420","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3888379,"gmtCreate":1616735311096,"gmtModify":1635748925527,"authorId":3571535693267201,"author":{"id":3571535693267201,"idStr":"3571535693267201","authorId":3571535693267201,"name":"Aaronykc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6fb0a4f08d4e7b8733e7ebc2445aad5","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358742420,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like please","text":"Like please","html":"Like please"},{"id":3888394,"gmtCreate":1616735453192,"gmtModify":1635748924546,"authorId":3565093231884966,"author":{"id":3565093231884966,"idStr":"3565093231884966","authorId":3565093231884966,"name":"乐乐兄弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb090d0ef806d1ab6ea260cffcde7569","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358742420,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358742664,"gmtCreate":1616735262658,"gmtModify":1634524285762,"author":{"id":"3577756382310448","authorId":"3577756382310448","name":"SekharS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3cf060bea92d562b2f8dab5564af02f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3577756382310448","authorIdStr":"3577756382310448"},"htmlText":"[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358742664","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":358742979,"gmtCreate":1616735220691,"gmtModify":1634524286120,"author":{"id":"3579165302374821","authorId":"3579165302374821","name":"Tony0623","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dac78108a5811a8c221da360733dfd","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3579165302374821","authorIdStr":"3579165302374821"},"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358742979","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358748229,"gmtCreate":1616735062861,"gmtModify":1616735062861,"author":{"id":"3577917165320806","authorId":"3577917165320806","name":"KinKat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a5d7e664c9e14d1097e19f1846ce94","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3577917165320806","authorIdStr":"3577917165320806"},"htmlText":"I prefer to maintain a \"take profit whenever possible\" position&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"I prefer to maintain a \"take profit whenever possible\" position&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"I prefer to maintain a \"take profit whenever possible\" position [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358748229","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3888519,"gmtCreate":1616736683605,"gmtModify":1635748915542,"authorId":3577347851898435,"author":{"id":3577347851898435,"idStr":"3577347851898435","authorId":3577347851898435,"name":"MarketPulse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b16f1b86e7977d1bb375d78b71b51d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358748229,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ya, if you have set the margin you want to take, as soon as it hits the prIce you can take the profit. But most investors did not have this discipline. ","text":"Ya, if you have set the margin you want to take, as soon as it hits the prIce you can take the profit. But most investors did not have this discipline. ","html":"Ya, if you have set the margin you want to take, as soon as it hits the prIce you can take the profit. But most investors did not have this discipline. "}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":358741192,"gmtCreate":1616734785716,"gmtModify":1634524288018,"author":{"id":"3561528639144665","authorId":"3561528639144665","name":"SHAUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f957e9ccadc0e6cd09e1f350be179747","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3561528639144665","authorIdStr":"3561528639144665"},"htmlText":"Seems to be double bottom pattern forming. Bullish!&nbsp;","listText":"Seems to be double bottom pattern forming. Bullish!&nbsp;","text":"Seems to be double bottom pattern forming. Bullish!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358741192","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358741010,"gmtCreate":1616734757430,"gmtModify":1634524288258,"author":{"id":"3572481506955360","authorId":"3572481506955360","name":"Mq322","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e8457649d97776b81c071ede05d42d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3572481506955360","authorIdStr":"3572481506955360"},"htmlText":"BUY BUY BUY","listText":"BUY BUY BUY","text":"BUY BUY BUY","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358741010","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358743991,"gmtCreate":1616734664413,"gmtModify":1634524289098,"author":{"id":"3558581504257803","authorId":"3558581504257803","name":"Kelvinyoon26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c18f026fcaa77f437cb20f39e1b4ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3558581504257803","authorIdStr":"3558581504257803"},"htmlText":"Buy!!","listText":"Buy!!","text":"Buy!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358743991","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":358749309,"gmtCreate":1616734546701,"gmtModify":1634524289457,"author":{"id":"3575346220147121","authorId":"3575346220147121","name":"ALT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8be5ce591282da3fbb11ca2132a854e2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3575346220147121","authorIdStr":"3575346220147121"},"htmlText":"Please comment? Thanks","listText":"Please comment? Thanks","text":"Please comment? Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358749309","repostId":1100799979,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看好股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-03-26 11:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.<blockquote>股市继续以道琼斯工业平均指数为主，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于中间。这对股票来说不是一个好的情况。</blockquote> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.<blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军走在军队前面，对市场不利（“将军”指的是通用汽车、通用电气等，即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”指的是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅很小，并且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).<blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为交易系统来实现。我们通常会看到这反映在宽度（现在给出了卖出信号）和新高与新低（也给出了卖出信号）上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，SPX 图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和 “修正布林带 ”仍在走高。然而，如果标准普尔突破3870点的支撑位，这种上升趋势将受到质疑。从随附的图表可以看出，3,725附近还有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会占据主导地位。与此同时，最近的历史高点 3,985 点代表了阻力位。</blockquote> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.<blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已经显着减弱，并且处于卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”<blockquote>仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于 2 月中旬首次产生的卖出信号之下，随着卖出信号的开始迅速上升，卖出信号得到加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们说它们 “超卖 ”之前，还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”<blockquote>在过去的两周里，广度严重恶化——尤其是上周。3 月 18 日和 3 月 19 日，宽度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标一直在暴跌。“仅限股票 ”宽度振荡指标已经跌入超卖区域，但 “超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的 “道琼斯型 ”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更重。</blockquote> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).<blockquote>与此同时，累计宽度也大幅下降。这并不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自 3 月 15 日累计 A-D 线创下历史新高以来，“仅股票 ”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近 10,000 期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量 10,000 期）。</blockquote> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.<blockquote>“新高与新低 ”指标也有了重大进展。3月23日，52周新低的数量超过了52周新高，52周新低的数量超过了100个——这是自去年5月以来的第一次。3月24日又出现了这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.<blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、宽度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反的是，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX 尚未大幅上涨，因此 3 月 4 日的 “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。</blockquote> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.<blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的走势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收盘价为2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>如果 VIX 继续跌破该水平，这对股市来说将是一个看涨信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).<blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX 在过去一年的大幅反弹中一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的信号。但维持 VIX 走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自 3 月初以来，SPX 的实现波动率（即其 20 天历史波动率）一直略低于 20。因此，已实现波动率的上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.<blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动性如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标准普尔的实际波动率和隐含波动率之间已不再存在显著差异。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构自始至终保持看涨态势。VIX 期货交易价格均高于 VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季呈上升趋势。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也呈上升趋势。</blockquote> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.<blockquote>负面反转的第一个迹象是 4 月份 VIX 期货价格高于 5 月份 VIX 期货价格。</blockquote> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.<blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化当然是一个令人担忧的原因，因此可以采取小的逆势看跌头寸。然而，标准普尔指数的趋势仍然较高，而VIX指数的趋势仍然较低--这两个因素都是看涨因素。因此，在这两个趋势被打破之前，我们仍维持 “核心 ”看涨头寸。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3888322,"gmtCreate":1616734674523,"gmtModify":1635748929754,"authorId":3558581504257803,"author":{"id":3558581504257803,"idStr":"3558581504257803","authorId":3558581504257803,"name":"Kelvinyoon26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c18f026fcaa77f437cb20f39e1b4ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358749309,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"},{"id":3888395,"gmtCreate":1616735464270,"gmtModify":1635748924424,"authorId":3565093231884966,"author":{"id":3565093231884966,"idStr":"3565093231884966","authorId":3565093231884966,"name":"乐乐兄弟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb090d0ef806d1ab6ea260cffcde7569","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":358749309,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":115,"commentSize":67,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}