美联储加息才刚开始，_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":614001562,"tweetId":"614001562","gmtCreate":1653271877356,"gmtModify":1653271986830,"author":{"id":3506743002498777,"authorId":3506743002498777,"authorIdStr":"3506743002498777","name":"非典型伪价值投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6188b1d6ce2048e6089cab4571e3fc","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储加息才刚开始，你跟我说经济筑底？港股现在被卖白菜了是事实，但是你跟我说股价驻地就纯属扯淡了。**分析师</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储加息才刚开始，你跟我说经济筑底？港股现在被卖白菜了是事实，但是你跟我说股价驻地就纯属扯淡了。**分析师</p></body></html>","text":"美联储加息才刚开始，你跟我说经济筑底？港股现在被卖白菜了是事实，但是你跟我说股价驻地就纯属扯淡了。**分析师","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614001562","repostId":2237821299,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237821299","pubTimestamp":1653269282,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2237821299?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-23 09:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股：二季度筑底，下半年便是晴天","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237821299","media":"格隆汇","summary":"2022年，新冠肺炎疫情持续影响香港市场，叠加海内外多重因素影响，上半年港股表现疲弱。近期，开源证券海外市场团队发布2022年中期投资策略《二季度筑底，下半年便是晴天——港股市场中期投资策略》，展望2","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2022年，新冠肺炎疫情持续影响香港市场，叠加海内外多重因素影响，上半年港股表现疲弱。近期，开源证券海外市场团队发布2022年中期投资策略<b>《二季度筑底，下半年便是晴天——港股市场中期投资策略》</b>，展望2022年下半年港股市场投资机会，开源证券海外市场团队认为，<b>二季度筑底，布局下半年反弹。对比全球主流股票市场及历史港股自身表现，港股当前估值水平偏低，已经具备中长期配置价值，但估值便宜不足以构成反转理由。</b>基于DCF模型，开源证券海外市场团队认为：</p><p><b>1、分子端：盈利增速是港股长周期上涨的核心<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>。</b>（1）中国经济体增长潜力相比欧美经济体具备比较优势，下半年经济有望回暖美国经济1Q提前出现衰退，国内经济待疫情缓解后有望于下半年回暖。未来是中国、欧洲经济同步往下走，还是中国率先复苏、领先于欧美，是关键的宏观变量。如果中国稳增长政策及疫情防控抓紧落实，驱动中国经济体率先复苏的话，有望带来吸引外资回流。（2）汇率：人民币贬值是不利因素  。</p><p><b>2、分母端：分母端因素整体比较错综复杂，会影响港股的阶段性表现。</b>（1）无风险利率：加息预期基本反应，缩表推动实际利率上行（2）风险溢价：流动性风险溢价：港股通资金还在净流入，外资尚未明显回流，外资回流还是需要看到港股基本面趋势优于欧美经济；美联储缩表带来的海外流动性紧缩影响；中概股退市对港股流动性的潜在影响仍需持续关注。</p><p>风险提示：(1)软件及产品推出不如预期；(2)产能及供应链风险；(3)疫情影响；(4)监管政策变动；(5)宏观经济增长放缓。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股：二季度筑底，下半年便是晴天</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股：二季度筑底，下半年便是晴天\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 09:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/528600><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2022年，新冠肺炎疫情持续影响香港市场，叠加海内外多重因素影响，上半年港股表现疲弱。近期，开源证券海外市场团队发布2022年中期投资策略《二季度筑底，下半年便是晴天——港股市场中期投资策略》，展望2022年下半年港股市场投资机会，开源证券海外市场团队认为，二季度筑底，布局下半年反弹。对比全球主流股票市场及历史港股自身表现，港股当前估值水平偏低，已经具备中长期配置价值，但估值便宜不足以构成反转理由...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/528600\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09caddfc0c2d2ea28b3db992baa72dbf","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/528600","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2237821299","content_text":"2022年，新冠肺炎疫情持续影响香港市场，叠加海内外多重因素影响，上半年港股表现疲弱。近期，开源证券海外市场团队发布2022年中期投资策略《二季度筑底，下半年便是晴天——港股市场中期投资策略》，展望2022年下半年港股市场投资机会，开源证券海外市场团队认为，二季度筑底，布局下半年反弹。对比全球主流股票市场及历史港股自身表现，港股当前估值水平偏低，已经具备中长期配置价值，但估值便宜不足以构成反转理由。基于DCF模型，开源证券海外市场团队认为：1、分子端：盈利增速是港股长周期上涨的核心驱动力。（1）中国经济体增长潜力相比欧美经济体具备比较优势，下半年经济有望回暖美国经济1Q提前出现衰退，国内经济待疫情缓解后有望于下半年回暖。未来是中国、欧洲经济同步往下走，还是中国率先复苏、领先于欧美，是关键的宏观变量。如果中国稳增长政策及疫情防控抓紧落实，驱动中国经济体率先复苏的话，有望带来吸引外资回流。（2）汇率：人民币贬值是不利因素  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港股：二季度筑底，下半年便是晴天

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