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带泡沫的苹果
03-10

你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光

大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年

2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。

大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年

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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4616e4326c718904d732530261ec5d4","relate_stocks":{"LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","CSCO":"思科","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) 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Close"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2418075892","content_text":"2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。英伟达周五大跌似乎验证了“思科时刻”的到来。但摩根士丹利认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于初期阶段，尚未达到互联网1999年的泡沫水平。AI基础设施建设仅仅是一个开始。 每个超大规模企业都在构建基础设施，以便尝试在该基础设施之上构建应用程序、工具和服务。今天，正在进行的AI数据中心加速计算建设只是第一阶段，但这只是构建所有AI应用程序的支柱，增加了一个颠覆性的技术层（大型语言模型），成本更低，上市更快。互联网泡沫从1994年12月开始，到2000年3月达到顶峰，期间经历了多次回调。英伟达首次上调销售预期是在2022年5月，Chat GPT在2022年11月才被广泛讨论。从时间上看，我们尚未达到1999年的泡沫水平。尤其是，GPU投资才刚刚起步，大摩认为，AI供应链的投资增长将会对其产生乘数效应：每100美元的云资本支出将转化为30-40美元的AI收入，这意味着在GPU上的投资将成倍增加。除了GPU之外，AI供应链的增长还将为HBM、定制芯片设计、制造和测试等领域带来机遇。另外，考虑到GPU开发技术复杂，如一块Grace Hopper 100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。摩根大通在报告中写道：回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":282746258554888,"gmtCreate":1710058233112,"gmtModify":1710058236888,"authorId":3554708838834221,"author":{"id":3554708838834221,"authorId":3554708838834221,"name":"霸气威武","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884a97d08a6f7f0246c299686e81f873","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":282745167196192,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"脱实向虚&nbsp; 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