雷曼兄弟破产以来最严重的流动性紧缩将至？小摩警告：危险_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

雷曼兄弟破产以来最严重的流动性紧缩将至？小摩警告：危险

金十数据2023-06-08

据摩根大通称，自2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭以来最大的流动性紧缩可能成为股市今年夏天面临的最严重的障碍。该银行首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic在周三的一份报告中警告投资者，多种因素可能导致流动性减少超过1万亿美元，并加剧人们对即将到来的经济衰退的担忧。Kolanovic写道：“美国的广泛流动性，我们定义为M2+机构货币市场基金资产，从现在到年底将再收缩1.1万亿美元，使2023年的总收缩...

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12aer
·2023-06-08
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Kolanovic在周三的一份报告中警告投资者，多种因素可能导致流动性减少超过1万亿美元，并加剧人们对即将到来的经济衰退的担忧。Kolanovic写道：“美国的广泛流动性，我们定义为M2+机构货币市场基金资产，从现在到年底将再收缩1.1万亿美元，使2023年的总收缩量达到1.7万亿美元。与去年同期相比，这将代表自雷曼兄弟危机以来美国最严重的广泛流动性收缩。”预期流动性紧缩背后的驱动力包括：美联储继续以每月近1000亿美元的速度缩减其资产负债表，美国财政部在债务上限协议达成后于今年夏天通过发行大量债券来填补其一般账户，以及美国银行存款继续流向货币市场基金。Kolanovic表示，美国流动性急剧下降不太可能被世界其他地区所抵消。他强调，自2022年11月以来，欧元区银行系统的流动性减少了1万亿欧元，预计还有4770亿欧元的贷款将于6月底到期，这将进一步损害流动性状况。与此同时，Kolanovic认为，在人工智能股被大肆炒作的推动下，近几个月科技股似乎出现了一些泡沫。Kolanovic表示，这与流动性下降相结合，意味着股市下跌的风险大于上涨的风险。他说：“认为最糟糕的压力时期已经过去的共识可能会被证明是错误的，因为从历史上看，货币紧缩的影响是滞后的，并且经济增长的某些支撑正在减弱，例如过剩的储蓄和强劲的利润率。我们认为，股票在下半年将面临越来越具有挑战性的宏观前景。”Kolanovic还补充道，严重的存款收缩并不意味着流动性或投资于金融资产的现金会减少，但如果这些存款外流最终打击脆弱的地区银行，它将给美国银行系统带来更大的压力。这是另一个对风险资产持谨慎态度的理由。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":185129536184376,"gmtCreate":1686236950845,"gmtModify":1686236957725,"author":{"id":"4130632223563100","authorId":"4130632223563100","name":"12aer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71be178f02f73776d73c3357670770f7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"危险危险","listText":"危险危险","text":"危险危险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185129536184376","repostId":2341039672,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2341039672","pubTimestamp":1686235505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2341039672?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-08 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tg-height=\"1024\"/></p><p>Kolanovic表示，美国流动性急剧下降不太可能被世界其他地区所抵消。他强调，自2022年11月以来，欧元区银行系统的流动性减少了1万亿欧元，预计还有4770亿欧元的贷款将于6月底到期，这将进一步损害流动性状况。</p><p>与此同时，Kolanovic认为，在人工智能股被大肆炒作的推动下，近几个月科技股似乎出现了一些泡沫。Kolanovic表示，这与流动性下降相结合，意味着<strong>股市下跌的风险大于上涨的风险。</strong>他说：</p><blockquote>“认为最糟糕的压力时期已经过去的共识可能会被证明是错误的，因为从历史上看，货币紧缩的影响是滞后的，并且经济增长的某些支撑正在减弱，例如过剩的储蓄和强劲的利润率。我们认为，股票在下半年将面临越来越具有挑战性的宏观前景。”</blockquote><p>Kolanovic还补充道，严重的存款收缩并不意味着流动性或投资于金融资产的现金会减少，但如果<strong>这些存款外流最终打击脆弱的地区银行，它将给美国银行系统带来更大的压力</strong>。这是另一个对风险资产持谨慎态度的理由。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>雷曼兄弟破产以来最严重的流动性紧缩将至？小摩警告：危险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n雷曼兄弟破产以来最严重的流动性紧缩将至？小摩警告：危险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-08 22:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=114557&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据摩根大通称，自2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭以来最大的流动性紧缩可能成为股市今年夏天面临的最严重的障碍。该银行首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic在周三的一份报告中警告投资者，多种因素可能导致流动性减少超过1万亿美元，并加剧人们对即将到来的经济衰退的担忧。Kolanovic写道：“美国的广泛流动性，我们定义为M2+机构货币市场基金资产，从现在到年底将再收缩1.1万亿美元，使2023年的总收缩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=114557&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01eabd205d5ac638e6b00708a3e71241","relate_stocks":{"LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","JPM":"摩根大通","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - 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Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=114557&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2341039672","content_text":"据摩根大通称，自2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭以来最大的流动性紧缩可能成为股市今年夏天面临的最严重的障碍。该银行首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic在周三的一份报告中警告投资者，多种因素可能导致流动性减少超过1万亿美元，并加剧人们对即将到来的经济衰退的担忧。Kolanovic写道：“美国的广泛流动性，我们定义为M2+机构货币市场基金资产，从现在到年底将再收缩1.1万亿美元，使2023年的总收缩量达到1.7万亿美元。与去年同期相比，这将代表自雷曼兄弟危机以来美国最严重的广泛流动性收缩。”预期流动性紧缩背后的驱动力包括：美联储继续以每月近1000亿美元的速度缩减其资产负债表，美国财政部在债务上限协议达成后于今年夏天通过发行大量债券来填补其一般账户，以及美国银行存款继续流向货币市场基金。Kolanovic表示，美国流动性急剧下降不太可能被世界其他地区所抵消。他强调，自2022年11月以来，欧元区银行系统的流动性减少了1万亿欧元，预计还有4770亿欧元的贷款将于6月底到期，这将进一步损害流动性状况。与此同时，Kolanovic认为，在人工智能股被大肆炒作的推动下，近几个月科技股似乎出现了一些泡沫。Kolanovic表示，这与流动性下降相结合，意味着股市下跌的风险大于上涨的风险。他说：“认为最糟糕的压力时期已经过去的共识可能会被证明是错误的，因为从历史上看，货币紧缩的影响是滞后的，并且经济增长的某些支撑正在减弱，例如过剩的储蓄和强劲的利润率。我们认为，股票在下半年将面临越来越具有挑战性的宏观前景。”Kolanovic还补充道，严重的存款收缩并不意味着流动性或投资于金融资产的现金会减少，但如果这些存款外流最终打击脆弱的地区银行，它将给美国银行系统带来更大的压力。这是另一个对风险资产持谨慎态度的理由。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}