华尔街一致看好新兴市场：2022年中国股市将上涨_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

华尔街一致看好新兴市场：2022年中国股市将上涨

华尔街见闻2021-12-29

距离2022年只有三天了，明年市场展望如何？包括高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通等在内的华尔街巨头都达成共识，认为随着通货膨胀的缓和以及经济增长加速带来收益，新兴市场的股票、债券和货币等资产在2022年有上涨行情，但要等到下半年才会得以实现。具体来看，他们预计中国股市将迎来上涨，而诸如波兰、捷克和匈牙利等国的债券也将上涨。 2022年年中复苏将标志着资产表现的转机，也将意味着2018年以来最糟糕的一年...

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唤唤霸霸
·2022-01-06
更可笑的是港股
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唤唤霸霸
·2022-01-06
可笑的a股
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呼辣汤
·2022-01-06
中国政府对资本的态度决定了
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19_00
·2022-01-06
低估值的都会涨吧，高估值的就不说了
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稳中求胜步步为赢
·2022-01-06
美股的中概股会涨
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风铃泡泡
·2022-01-06
土耳其都崩成啥样了
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玉树林风
·2022-01-05
他们和中信证券比哪个更靠谱[得意]
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兼职教授
·2022-01-05
估计没几人关注国际形势，印度的市值已经超过A股，而越南的则是翻倍，你们应该知道原因吧
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4
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苦烬甘来
·2022-01-05
现在笑话都有长篇了吗，还是短点吧，一句铺垫，二句反转那种最好了，[呆住]
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卡莱乔
·2022-01-04
自己人都不信
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2
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美股探险家
·2021-12-30
不管你信不信，反正我是不信
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5
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Jamesong
·2021-12-29
真会拍马屁！
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China's stock market will rise in 2022","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90905dcbdde35e3e11ceda5268124c8f","symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9},"content_text":"距离2022年只有三天了，明年市场展望如何？\n包括高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通等在内的华尔街巨头都达成共识，认为随着通货膨胀的缓和以及经济增长加速带来收益，新兴市场的股票、债券和货币等资产在2022年有上涨行情，但要等到下半年才会得以实现。具体来看，他们预计中国股市将迎来上涨，而诸如波兰、捷克和匈牙利等国的债券也将上涨。\n2022年年中复苏将标志着资产表现的转机，也将意味着2018年以来最糟糕的一年将会结束。虽然消费价格上涨、疫情反复和美元上涨，叠加美联储的紧缩政策将在明年晚些时候发挥作用，然而投资者已经看到了复苏的迹象，因为政策制定者通过提高利率对通胀采取强硬措施，而美国经济增长的峰值可能会将这一优势带回发展中的经济体。\n华尔街见闻稍早前文章提及，上周，彭博发布的数据显示，2021年南非、中国、印度尼西亚、印度和克罗地亚发行的主权债券回报率在全球46个市场中排名靠前。仅其中一个国家债券成绩就超过了2013年以来美债收益率最大年涨幅，这一冲击颠覆了货币套利交易和新兴市场股票。\n摩根大通资产管理公司驻香港的首席亚洲市场策略师Tai Hui表示，随着供应链问题趋于稳定，以及一些经济体疫苗接种率的上升将会为市场提供一个更有利的前景。此外，美国的利率可能仍低于整体通胀率，这加剧了投资者对收益的追求。这对于发达国家的投资者来说，这是个值得注意的机会。\n\n 2021年是发达市场经济增长超过新兴市场的一年，而这会迎来扭转。\n\nMSCI新兴市场股票指数今年跌幅超过5%，接近2001年以来相对于美国股市的最低水平。新兴市场本币债务在今年迎来2015年以来最糟糕的一年，而美元债券将迎来2008年全球金融危机以来的第三次亏损。\n新兴市场资产在2021年的失望表现，凸显新兴国家的经济增长率未能跟上发达国家的步伐。投资者表示，尽管在疫情之前，发展中经济体的平均扩张速度比发达经济体快2.5个百分点，但今年的扩张速度已收窄至1.3个百分点，部分原因是应对疫情的刺激措施不足。\n但随着美联储采取“鹰派”立场，并发出2022年三次加息的信号，美国经济增长可能会达到顶峰。再加上新兴市场经济活动的复苏，可能有助于再次扩大新兴市场和发达市场经济增长率的差距。\n在今年，至少有23个新兴市场迎来加息，这可能会对通胀产生温和影响，并提高新兴市场的实际回报率，尤其是股票和本币债券。与此同时，来自亚洲的发货量上升表明，供应链瓶颈可能正在缓解，这也将缓解了价格压力。\n摩根士丹利投资管理公司全球平衡风险控制团队战术定位主管Eric Zhang表示看好中国股票，高收益货币(包括巴西雷亚尔、墨西哥比索和俄罗斯卢布)：\n\n 我们预计，随着基数效应开始显现，明年新兴市场和发达市场的通胀可能都将开始回落。供应链瓶颈也应该开始缓解。\n\n高盛全球外汇、汇率和新兴市场战略研究联席主管Kamakshya Trivedi 看多东欧货币和中国股票：\n\n 我们预计美元将有一定的波动范围。由于存在相互抵消的力量，很难看到美元出现很大程度的疲软。\n\n法国巴黎银行资产管理公司新兴市场固定收益部门主管Jean-Charles Sambor则对美联储政策对新兴市场影响表示担忧，同时看好中国高收益债券，西非的外债，波兰、捷克和匈牙利的地方债券：\n\n 如果美联储启开启一个非常激进的紧缩周期，新兴市场资产将进一步受损。\n\nPictet Asset Management的高级多资产策略师Arun Sai提示投资者要注意美国经济增长这一因素，其看好银行股以及东盟重新开放带来的新机会：\n\n 我们的经济学家预测，新兴市场与新兴市场的增长差距将在2022年第二季度跌至谷底，并在下半年开始复苏。新兴市场资产通常会随着相对经济动能的加速而表现出色。此外，美国经济增长降温也是一个积极因素。当美国市场过热时，新兴市场上的资产往往会陷入困境。\n\nFidelity International 的投资组合经理Ian Samson 则看好印度尼西亚股票、中国股票和高收益债券、中欧货币：\n\n 疫苗接种在大多数新兴市场的国家推广太慢。然而，好消息是，目前似乎已经实现了某种程度的群体免疫，印度、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和其他部分国家的疫情都得到了控制。最终，这些新兴市场可能会在2022年迎来的重新开放热潮。\n\nFinisterre Capital的首席投资官Damien Buchet则认为本地货币债券在2022年有持续机会，例如阿曼、安哥拉、伊拉克、厄瓜多尔等产油国的外债，斯里兰卡、突尼斯等压力国家的外债等。\n\n 中国的政策（放松）将是相当关键的，对情绪的影响比实际的基本面更重要。\n\nNuveen全球固定收益投资组合管理联席主管Anupam Damani 则表示硬通货币主权和公司债券、地方债券：\n\n 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