社区

Nio is poised to unleash its newest electric vehicle — one that could threaten the Tesla Model 3 in China, while kick-starting Nio stock back to life.

Ahead of the fifth annual Nio Day on Dec. 18, the Chinese EV startup teased a new model reveal at the event.

Like many others, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu expects that model to be the ET5, the rumored smaller version of Nio's flagship ET7 electric sedan, which was officially revealed in January.

In a note Wednesday, Yu predicted that the ET5 will be Nio's most affordable and "highest volume" electric vehicle yet. By 2023, he expects the ET5 to outsell its larger counterpart, estimating 65,000 deliveries that year vs. 60,000 for the ET7.

That's in part because Yu believes it will start in the low 300,000 RMB ($46,000) range. By comparison, Nio's existing lineup of three premium electric SUVs, as well as the upcoming ET7 sedan, are priced in the 350,000-500,000 RMB (about $55,000 to $78,500) range.

In his note, Yu sees the ET5 taking on the Tesla Model 3 in China, as well as the BMW 3 series and Audi A4. The made-in-Shanghai Model 3 starts at $40,100, after discounts.

Nio plans three new EVs in 2022, including the ET7 sedan. The company, which hasn't debuted a new product in well over a year, is in need of a product refresh, analysts say. Meanwhile, the ET7 is seen challenging Tesla's Model S in China.

Nio Stock, EV Stocks

Shares of Nio fell 2.3% to 30.07 on the stock market Thursday, further undercutting May's lows. The relative strength line for once-red-hot Nio stock shows severe lag. Among other EV stocks, Tesla dropped 5%. Among startup peers, Xpeng fell 2.1% and Li Auto slumped 1.5%.

For Nio, the ET5 could open up the low end of the premium Chinese car market. As for the flagship, highly autonomous ET7, Yu believes it's ready to launch after a well-received reveal in January, starting around 440,000 RMB.

"We expect further details on the ET7 ahead of Q1 2022 customer deliveries" at Nio Day, Yu wrote in his Wednesday note.

At Nio Day 2021, Yu also expects more details on hybrid solid-state batteries and next-gen autonomous driving systems. He's also looking for more color on the Chinese EV startup's expansion in Europe.

In September, China's Nio entered the international market with the launch of its ES8 SUV in Norway. The ET7 sedan will follow in Germany in 2022. Tesla leads the European market for electric cars.