十年后，又一轮中概股做空高潮来了_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

十年后，又一轮中概股做空高潮来了

36氪2020-04-08

摘要：在这一轮瑞幸财务造假丑闻后，华尔街做空机构对中概股趁势掀起新一轮狙击，隔夜爱奇艺遭做空一度跌逾10%，好未来披露员工行为不当盘后一度跌逾20%，跟谁学2019年净利润暴增10倍但昨日股价反跌超10%。编者按：在公开承认伪造销售额22亿元后，瑞幸咖啡股价上周四以来累计跌逾80%。紧接着，华尔街做空机构对中概股趁势掀起新一轮狙击： Wolfpack Research看空爱奇艺，称其夸大了...

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黄金猎人
·2020-04-09
像瑞幸这般的公司，集体坐牢，追究最高刑事责任
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Cai
·2020-04-09
做假的后果
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邓大佬
·2020-04-08
中丐股？那么大A呢，比中丐股强吗？！
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1
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- 鑫鑫洋:
  好久没见了[抱拳]
  2020-04-08
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evener
·2020-04-08
除了爱奇艺没几个公司是听过，要我也做空啊
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-04-08
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稳如磐石
·2020-04-08
没有机构做空阿里和京东的嘛，特别是阿里。双十一销售额明显有水分，可能是大雷。
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RoyYep
·2020-04-08
围观
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切克闹
·2020-04-08
啥也甭说，只问一句，今天你健身了么？
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1
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积土为山
·2020-04-08
只有自己公司真实强大就不怕歪曲做空…
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天涯_5825
·2020-04-08
君子当自强不息！
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九州证券王健
·2020-04-08
别怪别人做空苍蝇不钉无缝的蛋你自己的财报扎实才能抗揍
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亩产万斤
·2020-04-08
上梁不正下梁歪，百度钱学森论亩产万斤会有新收获！
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4
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- 稳如磐石:
  [抠鼻]钱部长还研究特异功能呢。 [贱笑]亩产万斤是某些人屁股问题和经济关系不大。
  2020-04-08
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凌夜
·2020-04-08
做空跟谁学，学生老师都是强迫使用，用了以后只有一个结论，谁想跟你学，等开学了直接死
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七峰山砍柴人
·2020-04-08
只因为做假
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2
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天涯_5825
·2020-04-08
造假？
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4
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吾皇万睡万睡万万睡
·2020-04-08
无风不起浪
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href=https://vip.jianshiapp.com/articles/3589556#from=ios?ivk=1><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：在这一轮瑞幸财务造假丑闻后，华尔街做空机构对中概股趁势掀起新一轮狙击，隔夜爱奇艺遭做空一度跌逾10%，好未来披露员工行为不当盘后一度跌逾20%，跟谁学2019年净利润暴增10倍但昨日股价反跌超10%。\n\n编者按：在公开承认伪造销售额22亿元后，瑞幸咖啡股价上周四以来累计跌逾80%。紧接着，华尔街做空机构对中概股趁势掀起新一轮狙击：\n\nWolfpack Research看空爱奇艺，称其夸大了...</p>\n\n<a 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climax.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc0c389329e0bb013d9a915d6d49bfb0","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"摘要：在这一轮瑞幸财务造假丑闻后，华尔街做空机构对中概股趁势掀起新一轮狙击，隔夜爱奇艺遭做空一度跌逾10%，好未来披露员工行为不当盘后一度跌逾20%，跟谁学2019年净利润暴增10倍但昨日股价反跌超10%。\n\n编者按：在公开承认伪造销售额22亿元后，瑞幸咖啡股价上周四以来累计跌逾80%。紧接着，华尔街做空机构对中概股趁势掀起新一轮狙击：\n\nWolfpack Research看空爱奇艺，称其夸大了用户数量，这一行动获得浑水的配合，爱奇艺盘初一度跌逾10%。爱奇艺随后坚决否认做空的所有质疑，最终收涨逾3%。\n好未来披露员工行为不当，或夸大了销售数字，股价盘后一度跌逾20%；\n跟谁学上周发布的2019年财报显示净利润暴增10倍，但昨日股价反跌超10%。2月25日，做空机构Grizzly发布了一份五十多页的做空报告，历数跟谁学几宗罪：财务造假、刷单虚增学生人数、老股东抛售股票。\n\n从2020年1月29日到3月4日，已有9家中资公司遭到做空机构“狙击”。这意味着，平均4天就有一家中概股被做空。\n这其中，知名做空机构“杀人鲸”4天内连发两份报告剑指康哲药业；瑞幸咖啡则在两周内，先后遭遇两家老牌做空机构——“浑水”（浑水发布来自“匿名信源”的报告，并为其背书）和“美奇金”的质疑。\n不过36氪梳理发现，今年被“狙击”的9只中概股中，除了嘉楠科技和58同城在做空报告发布后未能止住股价颓势，其余7只中概股股价均在短暂下跌后迅速反弹。\n这与往年情况截然相反。不少中概股曾在做空机构狙击之下，股价一路向下。注：浑水发布的针对“瑞幸咖啡”的报告来自“匿名信源”\n数据来源：公开资料 制图：36氪\n如今，做空机构们为何频频失手？\n做空机构 “失灵”常态化\n做空中概股的第一个高峰发生于2010年。这一年，根据公开资料显示，共有43家中资企业赴美上市。直至今日，这一纪录都未被打破。数据来源：公开资料 制图：36氪\n随着赴美上市的中资公司不断增加，专注中概股的做空机构开始涌现。据《新京报》报道，2010年前后，全球新增超过40家做空中概股的网站。浑水、格劳克斯、匿名分析、美奇金、哥谭市等知名做空机构逢时而生。图源：所录做空机构官网 制图：36氪\n其中，“浑水”成立于2010年，至今共生产了17篇中概股报告。2010年做空“东方纸业” 首战告捷后，浑水先后对“绿诺科技”、 “ 中国高速频道”、 “ 多元环球水务”等发起狙击。做空报告给这些公司带来沉重打击，甚至走向退市。\n“香橼”则于 2011年推出了自己的“成名作”， 在浑水、OLP Global等做空机构的配合下，四个月内将东南融通“逼”至退市。另一个老牌猎手“格劳克斯” 成立以来做空的27只股票中有16只为中概股。它的中概股做空之路始于2011年，也是它做空中概股最多的一年。数据来源：格劳克斯（Glaucus Research）官网 制图：36氪\n为了贴近中国投资者，有的做空机构甚至制作了中文做空报告。“杀人鲸”自成立以来做空的8家公司中，7家为中概股公司。其中概股的做空报告自去年5月起一律附上中英文两个版本，页眉处还置以中国格言。数据来源：杀人鲸（Blue Orca Capital）官网 制图：36氪\n一般来说，针对上市公司，做空报告的质疑点主要集中在财务造假，管理层违规和实力不足三个方面。通过整理2017-2019年的58份做空报告（公开渠道，不完全统计），36氪发现，对于中概股的质疑，这些做空机构多集中于财务造假方面。数据来源：公开资料 制图：36氪\n而从结果看，36氪发现，自2016年之后，许多做空报告未见明显反响。\n以浑水为例，其在2016年后的6次狙击都反响平平。2019年，浑水质疑安踏体育通过控制大多数一级分销商捏造利润，致安踏体育股价一度跳水，最低跌至50.5港元，跌幅扩大逾8%。不过，安踏体育股价很快便触底反弹。目前，安踏体育股价在64港元左右波动。数据来源：浑水（Muddy Waters Research）官网 制图：36氪\n其他做空机构 “失灵”似乎也成为常态。去年，阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、波司登、周黑鸭、蒙牛乳业等先后“中枪”，参与的做空机构不乏杀人鲸、美奇金、艾默生这些知名度较高，过往战绩卓越的行业佼佼者。但从股市表现来看，它们踏空概率均超过以往。\n一个可以佐证的信息是，长期代理中国投资者在美国进行跨国证券集体诉讼的律师郝俊波告诉36氪，整体上来看，相较往年，中概股投资者的维权诉讼正慢慢减少。维权律师是做空产业链中的关键一环，有影响力的做空报告，往往是律师发起证券集体诉讼的重要依据。\n为何失手？\n曾经优秀的狙击手如今为何频频失手？答案或出自做空机构自身。\n经过36氪梳理，中概股做空机构目前鱼龙混杂，水平参差不齐，大致分为三种类型：第一种是，包括浑水、香橼、格劳克斯、匿名分析在内的老牌机构，它们成立时间长，实战次数多。第二种是，包括杀人鲸、博力达思等在内的新兴机构，它们虽成立不久，但成绩卓然。第三种是，一些表现平淡、成立不久的做空机构。比如空城研究、灰熊调研、Bucephalus等。\n由于成立时间短，缺乏实战经验，第三类做空机构推出的做空报告往往不尽如人意。半月前，做空联想集团的Bucephalus就被指责分析不够专业。\n而无论是这些从未狙击成功过的做空机构还是已有代表作傍身的机构，它们一成不变的调查手段或许已不再适用于互联网公司。互联网公司已成为中概股的主要力量，它们有着与传统行业截然不同的商业逻辑。\n在传统的上市公司调查中，线下探访是重要环节。比如， 2010年初，就在浑水宣布做空东方纸业的5个月前，浑水创始人Carson Cutler Block带领团队去了东方纸业所在地河北省保定市进行了多日实地考察。\n如今，这一方法似乎已不再适用于互联网公司。\n在2020年初，浑水引用“匿名信源”做空瑞幸咖啡的报告中，作者表示，“动用92个全职和1418个兼职调查员，收集2.5万多张小票 ，录制了1.1万小时的门店录像，并且收集了大量内部微信聊天记录。”做空报告跟踪了分布于38个城市的981个瑞幸咖啡门店。\n而这对于目前直营门店数达4507家、分布于53个城市的瑞幸咖啡来说仍然属于抽样调查。同时，就瑞幸咖啡的新零售模式而言，该份报告的调查手法也难免片面。\n对此瑞幸咖啡回应称： 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