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forcec
05-11 12:38
这样的分析文章,对投资有什么意义?世界就是一个草台班子
神话与隐忧,泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗?
forcec
03-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
全是一堆散户在玩
forcec
02-05
$蔚来(NIO)$
千万别上头,利好落地不是好事
forcec
02-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
我想问蔚来的投资者一个问题:为什么蔚来销量一路走高,四季度大概率单季度盈利,然而股价却持续数年一路走低并维持跌破发行价的低位?为什么蔚来在美股、新股、港股三地上市却仍然股价低迷?为什么即使是在蔚小理三家新势力品牌中到今天仍然市值最低且差距不小?
forcec
01-05
$蔚来(NIO)$
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
$理想汽车(LI)$
新能源的冬天来了。渗透率基本触顶,全球新能源汽车发展规划基本取消,新能源产业倾斜政策逐步退出,社会对电动车安全性质疑不断,内卷导致新能源车企即使盈利的企业也开始返亏。
forcec
2025-12-29
中国的车企目前没有一家可以说自己有护城河
forcec
2025-12-04
Replying to
@只买信仰股
:说得很好,卖车收了钱,但供应商款还没付,所以虽然亏损,现金流还增加了//
@只买信仰股
:卖了这么多车 是没收钱吗[笑哭][笑哭][笑哭]//
@只买信仰股
:现金流转正了 3季度账上多了100亿
forcec
2025-12-04
Replying to
@只买信仰股
:现金流会骗人,资产负债表不会骗人。3季度亏损,现金流还是正的,在没有新的融资下,唯一的可能就是债务增加了。//
@只买信仰股
:现金流转正了 3季度账上多了100亿
forcec
2025-11-28
没有规模 何来质量
forcec
2025-11-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
昨天的走势来看,又有机构在抛蔚来买小鹏。从风口来说,蔚来代表过气的新能源,小鹏代表下一个AI赛道。从市值来看,小鹏也是目前蔚小理最高的。
forcec
2025-11-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
客观说,这个财报与展望,对于蔚来这家深陷亏损泥潭的公司来说,是很难得且不易的,至于很多人觉得指引不及预期,那是因为预期本来就太高。但是蔚来依然没有脱离靠不断融资才能活下去的困境,而且未来依然充满不确定性,这一点上来说,未来很长时间依然摆脱不了股价在低位震荡的可能。
forcec
2025-11-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
说点残酷的:蔚来现在还没有到发行价。
forcec
2025-11-21
$蔚来(NIO)$
财报只有一个看点:毛利率。如果毛利率是增加的,说吗这波销量的成色还不错,可能股价会企稳;如果毛利率下降,基本就结束了。
forcec
2025-11-13
$蔚来(NIO)$
高点回撤20%,重新跌入熊市区间。
forcec
2025-11-05
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
股价做实真人假扮?做长线的可以忽略波动
forcec
2025-11-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
本轮反弹基本接近尾声。虽然销量有较大的增长,但是离持续盈利还有很远的距离。
forcec
2025-10-21
$Yueda Digital Holding(YDKG)$
这换手率
forcec
2025-10-21
不反对周榜了?
forcec
2025-10-16
Replying to
@hello123
:难道每次被打脸的不是你自己//
@hello123
:每次总有你,最后被打脸。//
@forcec
:四季度要盈利的话 周销不能低于13000,差很远
forcec
2025-10-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
坏消息是,gic可不是一般的投资机构,至少在专业性上轮不到散户怀疑,蔚来败诉可能将极大增加账面亏损额;好消息是如果gic索赔成功,那么在座的诸位买蔚来股票亏了钱的都可以索赔。如果真这样,蔚来就完蛋了。
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08:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"神话与隐忧,泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152980153","media":"中国企业家杂志","summary":"3月25日,泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单:营收371.2亿元,同比增长184.7%;经调整净利润130.8亿元,增长284.5%;毛利率72.1%。就在市场担忧泡泡玛特的增长神话即将落幕之际,剧情发生戏剧性反转。5月7日,段永平宣布清仓$中国神华$,全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。市场的恐慌与段永平逆势出手形成张力对照,也让泡泡玛特的长期价值更值得被深度拆解。从财报来看,泡泡玛特的利润表依然光芒万丈,但增长质量已出现边际变化。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>是能持续造血的IP平台,还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商?</p></blockquote><p>一只毛绒精灵,两种极端叙事。</p><p>4月30日晚10点,泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和天猫同步开售。THE MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱,两个版本各限量999台,均定价5999元。截至开售,京东平台预约人数超6万,开售即罄。</p><p>二手市场瞬时沸腾。有媒体报道,得物平台成交价一度冲至20999元。还有购入者直言,冰箱不会插电,就摆在家里的玩具柜旁边。</p><p>6天后的5月6日,泡泡玛特创始人、CEO王宁现身一档播客节目,称内部从去年LABUBU火爆时期,就在“理性灭火”。他透露,公司为了防止流量透支,暂停了LABUBU的新品发布、线下营销和多类开店、授权的合作,很多原定2025年推出的产品被推到了2026年。</p><p>一脚刹车下去,踩出两种现实。</p><p>3月25日,泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单:营收371.2亿元,同比增长184.7%;经调整净利润130.8亿元,增长284.5%;毛利率72.1%。财报发布当日股价暴跌22.5%,第二天继续下跌10.46%,两个交易日累计跌幅超30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9bab8a82a6369dda8750ce599e83d36\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"647\"/></p><p>摄影:吴莹</p><p><strong>截至5月8日收盘,泡泡玛特报收168.10港元。虽近期走势有所修复,但股价较去年8月339.80港元的历史高点,已跌去一半,对应市值蒸发超过2000亿港元。</strong></p><p>就在市场担忧泡泡玛特的增长神话即将落幕之际,剧情发生戏剧性反转。以价值投资著称的段永平,从3月起,便在“雪球”上力挺泡泡玛特,宣称自己是王宁的粉丝。5月7日,段永平宣布清仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>,全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。</p><p>市场的恐慌与段永平逆势出手形成张力对照,也让泡泡玛特的长期价值更值得被深度拆解。</p><p><strong>过去一年,泡泡玛特几乎踩中了所有风口。</strong>LABUBU进化为全球现象级消费符号,THE MONSTERS系列年营收冲过140亿元,直接拉动公司毛利率突破72%。海外门店一年净增100家,美洲市场收入同比增长748%,TikTok渠道登顶美国销售榜。员工规模破万,公司市值高点突破4200亿港元。</p><p><strong>但高速运转的机器内部,压力同步累积。</strong>泡泡玛特库存从15亿元膨胀至54亿元,现金转换周期拉长了近一个月,利润向现金流的转化效率出现下滑。当增速从三位数回落到财报会上王宁口中的“不低于20%”,市场对这家公司的定价逻辑亦被重置。</p><p>当一台跑车从全速冲刺切到巡航模式,发动机每个异响都会被放大。王宁挥刀向内,与热潮相向而行。他给2025年的公司业绩打90到95分,给组织管理只打了70分。过去一年的业绩增长被他比作“新手开F1”,“只有别人认为你很爽,实际上自己压力很大”,2026年则是“进站维修年”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3eddb9f914cee69b00ee8d5ce4eff0e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"771\"/></p><p>王宁 来源:受访者</p><p><strong>要支撑百亿级营收的高增长,就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性,蚕食消费者的收藏信心,最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论。这期间,王宁还要面临一个更本质的问题:一个组织,如何与高速增长形成的扩张惯性对抗?</strong></p><p><strong>泡泡玛特到底是一家能持续造血、穿越周期的IP平台,还是一家恰好撞上风口、终将回归平庸的爆款制造商?从财务角度看,真相介于两者之间。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化,但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明,这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。</strong></p><p>本文将基于财务视角,从估值逻辑、增长结构、商业模式三个维度,拆解这场价值重估的成因和边界。</p><h2 id=\"id_3603441852\">市场慌了:一个满分答卷,三个不安信号</h2><p>资本市场交易的从来不是过去,是对未来的出价。泡泡玛特3月25日的财报,释放了三个让投资者迅速行动的信号。</p><p><strong>第一个信号,是增速指引的落差。</strong></p><p>2025年营收增速184.7%,王宁在财报会上给出的2026年增长目标是“不低于20%”。从三位数骤降到20%区间,这个落差直接击穿了泡泡玛特作为成长股的估值基础。</p><p>在现金流折现模型的框架下,当市场将高速增长期假设从5年压缩为3~5年、将永续增长率从5%至8%调降至3%至5%,企业估值会发生系统性下移。<strong>以泡泡玛特为例,按狂热期参数估算的估值量级可以高达3.8万亿港元,切换至理性假设后降至约2200亿港元。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0adea900b917ed8116ba774c6a7caa1d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\"/></p><p><strong>第二个信号,是371亿元还“差了一口气”。</strong></p><p>2025年泡泡玛特371.2亿元的实际营收,比市场普遍预期的379.6亿元少了约8亿元。放在平时,这点差距无人在意。但在市场情绪紧绷的节点上,业绩和指引双双不及预期,直接动摇了投资者对盈利能见度的信心。</p><p><strong>第三个信号,是机构在有序撤离。</strong></p><p>财报发布当日,卖空成交额高达46.3亿港元,创上市以来新高。花旗银行、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01788\">国泰君安国际</a>等外资席位是主要的净卖出方,南向资金却反向持续净买入。多空双方的激烈分歧,说明一个问题:<strong>泡泡玛特正站在估值范式切换的十字路口,有人看到泡沫破裂,有人看到错杀机会。</strong></p><p><strong>整体来看,通过DCF(现金流折现)模型重估企业价值,此次股价回调更像一次迟到的估值与基本面的重新匹配。</strong></p><p>回顾2025年,泡泡玛特股价从年初的约90港元,最高飙升至339.80港元,最高涨幅超350%。这一涨势背后,是市场对其“IP神话”“全球化突破”“品类升级”的过度乐观预期,推动估值脱离基本面形成溢价。如今的回调,也是市场从狂热期假设向理性调整后,假设切换的必然结果。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/838be0ce0f328266f90b27e7342aff0c\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4255670004\">增长模式“变重”:钱去哪儿了?</h2><p>如果增速指引是导火索,资产负债表和现金流量表细节才是炸药。从财报来看,泡泡玛特的利润表依然光芒万丈,但增长质量已出现边际变化。</p><p>存货的膨胀速度最为直观。<strong>2025年末存货54.73亿元,较上年同期的15.25亿元增长258.9%,远超184.7%的营收增速。存货周转天数从100.98天拉长到121.63天,周转率从3.56次降到2.96次。货品生产出来的速度,已经快过卖出去的速度。</strong></p><p>泡泡玛特库存已处于高位,一旦核心IP热度回落,库存压力可能从增长推力,转为去化压力乃至减值风险。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca74c2448a5791c66122ab3bc9b48b3d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"684\"/></p><p>更值得关注的,是<strong>利润向现金流的转化效率。2025年净利润127.76亿元,同比增长308.8%。但经营活动现金流净额只有108.65亿元,增速119.3%,明显落后于利润增速。</strong>经营现金流与净利润的比值,从2024年的1.59倍降至0.85倍。每赚1元账面利润,实际回笼现金从1.59元缩水到0.85元。</p><p>钱去哪了?</p><p><strong>泡泡玛特的营运资本变动从正2.46亿元转为负35.50亿元,大量现金被锁定在库存和经营性项目里。</strong>现金转换周期也拉长了。应收账款周转天数从11.03天降到6.78天,回款效率实际上在改善。但应付账款周转天数从60.49天降到49.86天,意味着公司对上游供应商付款加快,没有用延长账期缓冲现金压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0b87e36da4e3a3dee8261a38a9424\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\"/></p><p>这一变化至少说明,在业务快速扩张阶段,公司未能有效借助供应链信用对冲营运资本占用,对自有资金的依赖反而有所增强。</p><p>综合下来,公司的现金转换周期从51.52天拉长到了78.55天。<strong>对一家处于高增长阶段,且估值高度依赖未来扩张预期的消费公司而言,现金转换周期拉长往往比单纯的利润波动更值得警惕。因为这意味着未来每新增一单位收入,需要占用更多资金去支撑。</strong></p><p>对于高估值成长股而言,市场最敏感的往往不是利润绝对值,而是利润的兑现质量。利润增长当然会提升估值想象力,但如果现金流跟不上、营运资本持续吞噬现金,那么市场就会开始质疑这种增长究竟能维持多久,又需要付出多大代价。</p><p>泡泡玛特2025年财报揭示出增长模式的切换。利润表依然强劲,但资产负债表与现金流量表的压力同步上升。此前市场将其视为高毛利、高周转、高弹性的IP消费公司,随着库存、营运资本和现金转换周期同步承压,市场已转向以“重营运约束”视角审视其增长路径。</p><p>综合来看,库存增速超过收入增速,存货周转放缓,营运资本大量消耗现金,现金转换周期延长,经营现金流增速明显落后于净利润增速……这些指标尚未构成财务风险,公司流动比率和速动比率仍处于安全区间,但意味着增长模式在发生变化,泡泡玛特正从“轻盈爆发”转入“负重前行”。</p><p>特别是当管理层对增速预期也回归到20%区间,市场估值的锚点就会从利润增速,转向资产周转效率和现金流兑现质量。</p><h2 id=\"id_1515197127\">等待下一个LABUBU:一个爆款撑起的增长,能走多远?</h2><p>泡泡玛特以IP为核心,围绕全球艺术家挖掘、IP孵化运营、消费者触达、潮玩文化推广、关联产业投资整合五个领域,构建了覆盖潮流玩具全产业链的综合运营平台。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4b631ab7363ffe7504d7a283a493a6\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>数据来源:公司招股书、业务数据等公开渠道整理</p><p>市场对泡泡玛特的定价分歧,本质上是两种商业认知的角力。</p><p>看多者在绘制一张IP平台公司的蓝图,认为其已构建起具有高黏性的用户资产与多元IP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>。而看空者则在复盘一部爆款周期股的剧本,认为潮玩消费热度易逝,难以穿越周期。</p><p>泡泡玛特的中国内地累计注册会员总数,从2021年末的1958万跃升至2025年末的7258万,5年间增长超过270%。公司的核心销售几乎全部来源于其会员体系,会员贡献销售占比始终保持在90%以上,2025年更是高达93.7%。</p><p><strong>复购率虽然有所波动,但在2025年显著回升至55.7%,显示出泡泡玛特的高度会员黏性和忠诚度。这意味着,泡泡玛特卖的不再是单纯的玩具,而是一张通往年轻世代情感消费的门票。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化,但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明,这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e934c680aba089beb8ccce050664d0\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><p>具体来看:</p><p><strong>1.LABUBU:半壁江山与偶然性难题</strong></p><p>THE MONSTERS系列2025年营收141.61亿元,同比增长365.72%,泡泡玛特第一个百亿级IP就此诞生,它的营收增量贡献占公司全年增量近一半。毛绒产品定价高于传统盲盒,叠加海外商品的更高溢价,直接拉高公司整体毛利率至72.10%。</p><p>但爆款的偶然性摆在那里。王宁多次公开表达,LABUBU的全球爆红始于意外明星效应,“意外爆款”难以标准化复制。资本市场始终在审慎怀疑:泡泡玛特能不能持续孵化出下一个同等体量的IP?随着THE MONSTERS 4.0系列发售和供给量放大,部分普通款在二级市场已跌破官方售价,IP的金融炒作属性正在弱化。</p><p>今年5月,王宁接受专访时透露,公司在LABUBU热度最高时主动暂停新品发布、线下营销和多类对外合作,“让它自然降温反而能延长生命周期”。这说明,管理层已意识到超级IP热度的脆弱性,选择主动控速。</p><p><strong>2.IP矩阵:一超多强与结构性断层</strong></p><p>从表面看,泡泡玛特已构建起庞大的IP矩阵。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f5488259de8a994409607d65164d75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\"/></p><p>2025年,公司17个IP收入过亿,SKULLPANDA(35.40亿元)、CRYBABY(29.29亿元)、MOLLY(28.97亿元)、DIMOO(27.77亿元)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300256\">星星</a>人(20.56亿元)等6个IP进入20亿俱乐部。</p><p>但拆开看,第二梯队离领头羊差得还是太远。SKULLPANDA与LABUBU的营收差距高达106亿元,几乎是一个中型IP的全年体量。一旦LABUBU增速放缓,其他IP难以平滑公司整体增长曲线。</p><p><strong>新老IP的增速分化也让人警醒。2024年签约的星星人,2025年营收暴增1601.81%至20.56亿元,展现了泡泡玛特的IP孵化潜能。但经典IP MOLLY同期增速只有38.41%,显著低于公司整体水平。</strong></p><p>成熟IP消费群体趋于稳定,新鲜感驱动的增量动能正在衰减。单纯靠形象迭代,能不能维持长期高增长?这是泡泡玛特绕不开的问题。</p><p>MOLLY的“先例”可资借鉴。2017年,MOLLY一度占泡泡玛特自有品牌收入89.4%,撑起公司近乎全部增长。随后热度回落,收入占比在2018年降至62.9%,2019年进一步降到32.9%。</p><p>2021年高点后,泡泡玛特股价从70多港元一度跌到不足10港元。当前LABUBU的收入占比已近40%,成为新的超级顶流,是否可能会重蹈MOLLY覆辙?一旦其热度褪去,公司能否快速找到下一个接替者?</p><p><strong>3.海外市场:高基数上的增速换挡</strong></p><p>海外是2025年泡泡玛特业绩的重要引擎:海外收入162.68亿元,同比增长291.89%,营收占比从31.80%升至43.80%。美洲市场收入68.06亿元,增长748.40%;欧洲市场收入14.51亿元,增长506.30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1af4856e1ccecf2197e87fb026472517\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"580\"/></p><p>但高基数压力已在2026年第一季度兑现。彭博社援引Bloomberg Second Measure信用卡交易数据,泡泡玛特美国市场1月同比增长130%,2月降至41%,3月同比转负,下降45%。分析师指出,新品集中在1至2月上线,动能快速衰减,消费者对非LABUBU IP产品的接受度仍有限。</p><p>高速增长背后,增速边际放缓的隐忧已经显现,尤其是运营复杂性持续提升,海外市场的快速拓店,对供应链响应速度、本地化营销能力、国际化人才储备提出了更高要求。粗放式扩张之后,运营效率的提升将成为泡泡玛特海外业务持续增长的关键。</p><p>管理层已着手调整北美策略。据中银国际4月专家访谈纪要,北美团队2025年侧重铺货与开店,产品供给与本地消费偏好存在错配。修复方向包括:签约北美本地艺术家开发产品、提升墨西哥工厂产能覆盖约85%的北美供应、从线上渠道转向旗舰店大店体验驱动品牌认知。</p><h2 id=\"id_580860999\">增长与稀缺的悖论:IP能火多久?</h2><p>泡泡玛特长期维持的超高毛利率,根源在于情感溢价,而情感溢价的核心支撑是稀缺性。这种稀缺性带来的收藏属性,更接近经济学中的“凡勃伦”商品,稀缺性越强、溢价越高,吸引力反而越大。</p><p>回顾近5年业绩,泡泡玛特毛利率从2021年的61.4%攀升至2025年的72.1%,靠的就是头部IP爆款效应和稀缺机制——但商业扩张要求持续扩产放量。</p><p>2025年LABUBU月产能提升至5000万件,大规模铺货直接导致二级市场溢价收窄。早期MOLLY隐藏款溢价可达10倍以上,如今多数系列已缩水至2至3倍,部分款式跌破发行价。</p><p><strong>这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论:要支撑百亿级营收的高增长,就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性,蚕食消费者的收藏信心,最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。</strong></p><p>王宁曾说:“我们的成功不是盲盒的成功,而是商业和艺术平衡的成功。艺术是追求独特的,但商业是追求普遍的,这是一个矛盾,而我们做的事情是尽量做到平衡。”当规模扩张的速度越过平衡的临界点,这个矛盾以前所未有的锐度暴露出来。</p><p>潮玩行业有一条规律:IP生命周期普遍走孵化、成长、成熟、衰退的曲线,爆款平均热度周期约18到24个月。绝大多数IP停留在形象驱动、产品变现的浅层,缺乏长期叙事支撑与情感内核,难以穿越周期成为经典。这是行业IP生命周期的“阿喀琉斯之踵”,也是泡泡玛特无法回避的结构性短板。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5e18c75e544c4ff407d35ce0f1179ca\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p>图片来源:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>研究部</p><p>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>等全球IP巨头成熟的“内容先行、世界观打底”模式相比,泡泡玛特的IP运营路径是“形象出圈、盲盒爆卖、多品类延伸”。消费者对LABUBU、MOLLY们的喜爱,更多停留在视觉和情绪层面,缺少对角色的深度认同。</p><p>泡泡玛特显然意识到了这一短板,近年已明显加大内容与场景投入:宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>影业合作,为LABUBU打造真人动画电影。推进POP LAND主题乐园1.5期开业,同时布局小家电、甜品、饰品等多元业态,试图用场景延长IP寿命。</p><p>但电影能不能拍好,还是未知数。尤其是LABUBU的爆火,同样依赖设计风格与社交传播,而非基于成熟故事积累,将一个视觉符号转化为能打动大众的银幕故事,难度远超产品迭代。泡泡玛特擅长的是IP工业化孵化、产品落地与渠道销售,在影视编剧、世界观构建、长内容运营上几乎从零起步,内容工业化能力尚待培育。</p><p>不过,王宁在近期的专访中给出了不同的解释。他将LABUBU比作“梅西式的体育明星”,不是迪士尼式的影视角色。他认为LABUBU不靠故事驱动,靠的是普世审美形象、高频产品迭代和长期陪伴感。“人们不需要梅西有故事,他站在那里就能让人开心。LABUBU的逻辑是一样的。”</p><p>这个定位将泡泡玛特的IP模式与迪士尼做了明确切割:前者走“形象即内容”的体育明星路线,后者走“故事驱动形象”的影视工业路线。哪条路能支撑更长的IP生命周期,目前尚无定论。但至少,这个比喻为理解泡泡玛特的IP模式,提供了一个新刻度。</p><p>泡泡玛特的股价重挫,是一次估值范式的切换。市场正在将它从不可预测的爆发式增长股,重新定价为可见度更高的稳健成长股。当增速从三位数回落至20%区间,现金流质量、盈利能力和护城河宽度,将成为更重要的估值定价因子。</p><p><strong>未来,市场对泡泡玛特的关注点将聚焦于三个指标:单一IP营收占比能否降到30%以下,证明平台的抗风险能力;海外单店模型能否交出精细化数据,验证全球化不是“烧钱换增长”;内容建设能否取得实质进展,为IP注入穿越周期的文化内核。</strong></p><p>“尊重时间,尊重经营。”王宁说过的这八个字,或许正是潮玩产业穿越周期的注脚。迪士尼花了数十年建立起米奇的文化地位,三丽鸥耕耘<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Hello</a> Kitty也超过半个世纪。泡泡玛特从2010年成立到MOLLY破圈用了近8年,LABUBU全球爆火还不到2年。</p><p>但现在,市场不只看过去了。经历估值泡沫与理性回归之后,真正具备IP运营能力的公司,终会赢得“时间的复利”。在此之前,市场的每一次热情,都可能被理性预期浇上一盆冷水。</p></body></html>","source":"zgqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>神话与隐忧,泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n神话与隐忧,泡泡玛特值得段永平“抄底”吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-11 08:14 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/USt6FHKH0cvEaW_yV8P3BA><strong>中国企业家杂志</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>泡泡玛特是能持续造血的IP平台,还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商?一只毛绒精灵,两种极端叙事。4月30日晚10点,泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在京东和天猫同步开售。THE MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱,两个版本各限量999台,均定价5999元。截至开售,京东平台预约人数超6万,开售即罄。二手市场瞬时沸腾。有媒体报道,得物平台成交价一度冲至20999元。还有购入者直言,冰箱不会插电,就摆在家里的玩具柜旁边。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/USt6FHKH0cvEaW_yV8P3BA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30dc37d452f250ce3fb402a1655ca971","relate_stocks":{"LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC 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ACC","09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/USt6FHKH0cvEaW_yV8P3BA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152980153","content_text":"泡泡玛特是能持续造血的IP平台,还是恰好撞上风口的爆款制造商?一只毛绒精灵,两种极端叙事。4月30日晚10点,泡泡玛特首款冰箱产品在京东和天猫同步开售。THE MONSTERS生活家系列冷藏箱,两个版本各限量999台,均定价5999元。截至开售,京东平台预约人数超6万,开售即罄。二手市场瞬时沸腾。有媒体报道,得物平台成交价一度冲至20999元。还有购入者直言,冰箱不会插电,就摆在家里的玩具柜旁边。6天后的5月6日,泡泡玛特创始人、CEO王宁现身一档播客节目,称内部从去年LABUBU火爆时期,就在“理性灭火”。他透露,公司为了防止流量透支,暂停了LABUBU的新品发布、线下营销和多类开店、授权的合作,很多原定2025年推出的产品被推到了2026年。一脚刹车下去,踩出两种现实。3月25日,泡泡玛特交出2025年成绩单:营收371.2亿元,同比增长184.7%;经调整净利润130.8亿元,增长284.5%;毛利率72.1%。财报发布当日股价暴跌22.5%,第二天继续下跌10.46%,两个交易日累计跌幅超30%。摄影:吴莹截至5月8日收盘,泡泡玛特报收168.10港元。虽近期走势有所修复,但股价较去年8月339.80港元的历史高点,已跌去一半,对应市值蒸发超过2000亿港元。就在市场担忧泡泡玛特的增长神话即将落幕之际,剧情发生戏剧性反转。以价值投资著称的段永平,从3月起,便在“雪球”上力挺泡泡玛特,宣称自己是王宁的粉丝。5月7日,段永平宣布清仓中国神华,全额换仓买入泡泡玛特。市场的恐慌与段永平逆势出手形成张力对照,也让泡泡玛特的长期价值更值得被深度拆解。过去一年,泡泡玛特几乎踩中了所有风口。LABUBU进化为全球现象级消费符号,THE MONSTERS系列年营收冲过140亿元,直接拉动公司毛利率突破72%。海外门店一年净增100家,美洲市场收入同比增长748%,TikTok渠道登顶美国销售榜。员工规模破万,公司市值高点突破4200亿港元。但高速运转的机器内部,压力同步累积。泡泡玛特库存从15亿元膨胀至54亿元,现金转换周期拉长了近一个月,利润向现金流的转化效率出现下滑。当增速从三位数回落到财报会上王宁口中的“不低于20%”,市场对这家公司的定价逻辑亦被重置。当一台跑车从全速冲刺切到巡航模式,发动机每个异响都会被放大。王宁挥刀向内,与热潮相向而行。他给2025年的公司业绩打90到95分,给组织管理只打了70分。过去一年的业绩增长被他比作“新手开F1”,“只有别人认为你很爽,实际上自己压力很大”,2026年则是“进站维修年”。王宁 来源:受访者要支撑百亿级营收的高增长,就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性,蚕食消费者的收藏信心,最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论。这期间,王宁还要面临一个更本质的问题:一个组织,如何与高速增长形成的扩张惯性对抗?泡泡玛特到底是一家能持续造血、穿越周期的IP平台,还是一家恰好撞上风口、终将回归平庸的爆款制造商?从财务角度看,真相介于两者之间。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化,但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明,这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。本文将基于财务视角,从估值逻辑、增长结构、商业模式三个维度,拆解这场价值重估的成因和边界。市场慌了:一个满分答卷,三个不安信号资本市场交易的从来不是过去,是对未来的出价。泡泡玛特3月25日的财报,释放了三个让投资者迅速行动的信号。第一个信号,是增速指引的落差。2025年营收增速184.7%,王宁在财报会上给出的2026年增长目标是“不低于20%”。从三位数骤降到20%区间,这个落差直接击穿了泡泡玛特作为成长股的估值基础。在现金流折现模型的框架下,当市场将高速增长期假设从5年压缩为3~5年、将永续增长率从5%至8%调降至3%至5%,企业估值会发生系统性下移。以泡泡玛特为例,按狂热期参数估算的估值量级可以高达3.8万亿港元,切换至理性假设后降至约2200亿港元。第二个信号,是371亿元还“差了一口气”。2025年泡泡玛特371.2亿元的实际营收,比市场普遍预期的379.6亿元少了约8亿元。放在平时,这点差距无人在意。但在市场情绪紧绷的节点上,业绩和指引双双不及预期,直接动摇了投资者对盈利能见度的信心。第三个信号,是机构在有序撤离。财报发布当日,卖空成交额高达46.3亿港元,创上市以来新高。花旗银行、国泰君安国际等外资席位是主要的净卖出方,南向资金却反向持续净买入。多空双方的激烈分歧,说明一个问题:泡泡玛特正站在估值范式切换的十字路口,有人看到泡沫破裂,有人看到错杀机会。整体来看,通过DCF(现金流折现)模型重估企业价值,此次股价回调更像一次迟到的估值与基本面的重新匹配。回顾2025年,泡泡玛特股价从年初的约90港元,最高飙升至339.80港元,最高涨幅超350%。这一涨势背后,是市场对其“IP神话”“全球化突破”“品类升级”的过度乐观预期,推动估值脱离基本面形成溢价。如今的回调,也是市场从狂热期假设向理性调整后,假设切换的必然结果。增长模式“变重”:钱去哪儿了?如果增速指引是导火索,资产负债表和现金流量表细节才是炸药。从财报来看,泡泡玛特的利润表依然光芒万丈,但增长质量已出现边际变化。存货的膨胀速度最为直观。2025年末存货54.73亿元,较上年同期的15.25亿元增长258.9%,远超184.7%的营收增速。存货周转天数从100.98天拉长到121.63天,周转率从3.56次降到2.96次。货品生产出来的速度,已经快过卖出去的速度。泡泡玛特库存已处于高位,一旦核心IP热度回落,库存压力可能从增长推力,转为去化压力乃至减值风险。更值得关注的,是利润向现金流的转化效率。2025年净利润127.76亿元,同比增长308.8%。但经营活动现金流净额只有108.65亿元,增速119.3%,明显落后于利润增速。经营现金流与净利润的比值,从2024年的1.59倍降至0.85倍。每赚1元账面利润,实际回笼现金从1.59元缩水到0.85元。钱去哪了?泡泡玛特的营运资本变动从正2.46亿元转为负35.50亿元,大量现金被锁定在库存和经营性项目里。现金转换周期也拉长了。应收账款周转天数从11.03天降到6.78天,回款效率实际上在改善。但应付账款周转天数从60.49天降到49.86天,意味着公司对上游供应商付款加快,没有用延长账期缓冲现金压力。这一变化至少说明,在业务快速扩张阶段,公司未能有效借助供应链信用对冲营运资本占用,对自有资金的依赖反而有所增强。综合下来,公司的现金转换周期从51.52天拉长到了78.55天。对一家处于高增长阶段,且估值高度依赖未来扩张预期的消费公司而言,现金转换周期拉长往往比单纯的利润波动更值得警惕。因为这意味着未来每新增一单位收入,需要占用更多资金去支撑。对于高估值成长股而言,市场最敏感的往往不是利润绝对值,而是利润的兑现质量。利润增长当然会提升估值想象力,但如果现金流跟不上、营运资本持续吞噬现金,那么市场就会开始质疑这种增长究竟能维持多久,又需要付出多大代价。泡泡玛特2025年财报揭示出增长模式的切换。利润表依然强劲,但资产负债表与现金流量表的压力同步上升。此前市场将其视为高毛利、高周转、高弹性的IP消费公司,随着库存、营运资本和现金转换周期同步承压,市场已转向以“重营运约束”视角审视其增长路径。综合来看,库存增速超过收入增速,存货周转放缓,营运资本大量消耗现金,现金转换周期延长,经营现金流增速明显落后于净利润增速……这些指标尚未构成财务风险,公司流动比率和速动比率仍处于安全区间,但意味着增长模式在发生变化,泡泡玛特正从“轻盈爆发”转入“负重前行”。特别是当管理层对增速预期也回归到20%区间,市场估值的锚点就会从利润增速,转向资产周转效率和现金流兑现质量。等待下一个LABUBU:一个爆款撑起的增长,能走多远?泡泡玛特以IP为核心,围绕全球艺术家挖掘、IP孵化运营、消费者触达、潮玩文化推广、关联产业投资整合五个领域,构建了覆盖潮流玩具全产业链的综合运营平台。数据来源:公司招股书、业务数据等公开渠道整理市场对泡泡玛特的定价分歧,本质上是两种商业认知的角力。看多者在绘制一张IP平台公司的蓝图,认为其已构建起具有高黏性的用户资产与多元IP矩阵。而看空者则在复盘一部爆款周期股的剧本,认为潮玩消费热度易逝,难以穿越周期。泡泡玛特的中国内地累计注册会员总数,从2021年末的1958万跃升至2025年末的7258万,5年间增长超过270%。公司的核心销售几乎全部来源于其会员体系,会员贡献销售占比始终保持在90%以上,2025年更是高达93.7%。复购率虽然有所波动,但在2025年显著回升至55.7%,显示出泡泡玛特的高度会员黏性和忠诚度。这意味着,泡泡玛特卖的不再是单纯的玩具,而是一张通往年轻世代情感消费的门票。泡泡玛特确实在向平台化进化,但LABUBU占比不降反升的趋势也表明,这种平台化能力尚未完全成熟。具体来看:1.LABUBU:半壁江山与偶然性难题THE MONSTERS系列2025年营收141.61亿元,同比增长365.72%,泡泡玛特第一个百亿级IP就此诞生,它的营收增量贡献占公司全年增量近一半。毛绒产品定价高于传统盲盒,叠加海外商品的更高溢价,直接拉高公司整体毛利率至72.10%。但爆款的偶然性摆在那里。王宁多次公开表达,LABUBU的全球爆红始于意外明星效应,“意外爆款”难以标准化复制。资本市场始终在审慎怀疑:泡泡玛特能不能持续孵化出下一个同等体量的IP?随着THE MONSTERS 4.0系列发售和供给量放大,部分普通款在二级市场已跌破官方售价,IP的金融炒作属性正在弱化。今年5月,王宁接受专访时透露,公司在LABUBU热度最高时主动暂停新品发布、线下营销和多类对外合作,“让它自然降温反而能延长生命周期”。这说明,管理层已意识到超级IP热度的脆弱性,选择主动控速。2.IP矩阵:一超多强与结构性断层从表面看,泡泡玛特已构建起庞大的IP矩阵。2025年,公司17个IP收入过亿,SKULLPANDA(35.40亿元)、CRYBABY(29.29亿元)、MOLLY(28.97亿元)、DIMOO(27.77亿元)、星星人(20.56亿元)等6个IP进入20亿俱乐部。但拆开看,第二梯队离领头羊差得还是太远。SKULLPANDA与LABUBU的营收差距高达106亿元,几乎是一个中型IP的全年体量。一旦LABUBU增速放缓,其他IP难以平滑公司整体增长曲线。新老IP的增速分化也让人警醒。2024年签约的星星人,2025年营收暴增1601.81%至20.56亿元,展现了泡泡玛特的IP孵化潜能。但经典IP MOLLY同期增速只有38.41%,显著低于公司整体水平。成熟IP消费群体趋于稳定,新鲜感驱动的增量动能正在衰减。单纯靠形象迭代,能不能维持长期高增长?这是泡泡玛特绕不开的问题。MOLLY的“先例”可资借鉴。2017年,MOLLY一度占泡泡玛特自有品牌收入89.4%,撑起公司近乎全部增长。随后热度回落,收入占比在2018年降至62.9%,2019年进一步降到32.9%。2021年高点后,泡泡玛特股价从70多港元一度跌到不足10港元。当前LABUBU的收入占比已近40%,成为新的超级顶流,是否可能会重蹈MOLLY覆辙?一旦其热度褪去,公司能否快速找到下一个接替者?3.海外市场:高基数上的增速换挡海外是2025年泡泡玛特业绩的重要引擎:海外收入162.68亿元,同比增长291.89%,营收占比从31.80%升至43.80%。美洲市场收入68.06亿元,增长748.40%;欧洲市场收入14.51亿元,增长506.30%。但高基数压力已在2026年第一季度兑现。彭博社援引Bloomberg Second Measure信用卡交易数据,泡泡玛特美国市场1月同比增长130%,2月降至41%,3月同比转负,下降45%。分析师指出,新品集中在1至2月上线,动能快速衰减,消费者对非LABUBU IP产品的接受度仍有限。高速增长背后,增速边际放缓的隐忧已经显现,尤其是运营复杂性持续提升,海外市场的快速拓店,对供应链响应速度、本地化营销能力、国际化人才储备提出了更高要求。粗放式扩张之后,运营效率的提升将成为泡泡玛特海外业务持续增长的关键。管理层已着手调整北美策略。据中银国际4月专家访谈纪要,北美团队2025年侧重铺货与开店,产品供给与本地消费偏好存在错配。修复方向包括:签约北美本地艺术家开发产品、提升墨西哥工厂产能覆盖约85%的北美供应、从线上渠道转向旗舰店大店体验驱动品牌认知。增长与稀缺的悖论:IP能火多久?泡泡玛特长期维持的超高毛利率,根源在于情感溢价,而情感溢价的核心支撑是稀缺性。这种稀缺性带来的收藏属性,更接近经济学中的“凡勃伦”商品,稀缺性越强、溢价越高,吸引力反而越大。回顾近5年业绩,泡泡玛特毛利率从2021年的61.4%攀升至2025年的72.1%,靠的就是头部IP爆款效应和稀缺机制——但商业扩张要求持续扩产放量。2025年LABUBU月产能提升至5000万件,大规模铺货直接导致二级市场溢价收窄。早期MOLLY隐藏款溢价可达10倍以上,如今多数系列已缩水至2至3倍,部分款式跌破发行价。这是泡泡玛特的增长悖论:要支撑百亿级营收的高增长,就必须扩大产能、提高铺货密度。但大规模量产会持续侵蚀IP稀缺性,蚕食消费者的收藏信心,最终反噬毛利率与品牌调性。王宁曾说:“我们的成功不是盲盒的成功,而是商业和艺术平衡的成功。艺术是追求独特的,但商业是追求普遍的,这是一个矛盾,而我们做的事情是尽量做到平衡。”当规模扩张的速度越过平衡的临界点,这个矛盾以前所未有的锐度暴露出来。潮玩行业有一条规律:IP生命周期普遍走孵化、成长、成熟、衰退的曲线,爆款平均热度周期约18到24个月。绝大多数IP停留在形象驱动、产品变现的浅层,缺乏长期叙事支撑与情感内核,难以穿越周期成为经典。这是行业IP生命周期的“阿喀琉斯之踵”,也是泡泡玛特无法回避的结构性短板。图片来源:中金公司研究部与迪士尼等全球IP巨头成熟的“内容先行、世界观打底”模式相比,泡泡玛特的IP运营路径是“形象出圈、盲盒爆卖、多品类延伸”。消费者对LABUBU、MOLLY们的喜爱,更多停留在视觉和情绪层面,缺少对角色的深度认同。泡泡玛特显然意识到了这一短板,近年已明显加大内容与场景投入:宣布与索尼影业合作,为LABUBU打造真人动画电影。推进POP LAND主题乐园1.5期开业,同时布局小家电、甜品、饰品等多元业态,试图用场景延长IP寿命。但电影能不能拍好,还是未知数。尤其是LABUBU的爆火,同样依赖设计风格与社交传播,而非基于成熟故事积累,将一个视觉符号转化为能打动大众的银幕故事,难度远超产品迭代。泡泡玛特擅长的是IP工业化孵化、产品落地与渠道销售,在影视编剧、世界观构建、长内容运营上几乎从零起步,内容工业化能力尚待培育。不过,王宁在近期的专访中给出了不同的解释。他将LABUBU比作“梅西式的体育明星”,不是迪士尼式的影视角色。他认为LABUBU不靠故事驱动,靠的是普世审美形象、高频产品迭代和长期陪伴感。“人们不需要梅西有故事,他站在那里就能让人开心。LABUBU的逻辑是一样的。”这个定位将泡泡玛特的IP模式与迪士尼做了明确切割:前者走“形象即内容”的体育明星路线,后者走“故事驱动形象”的影视工业路线。哪条路能支撑更长的IP生命周期,目前尚无定论。但至少,这个比喻为理解泡泡玛特的IP模式,提供了一个新刻度。泡泡玛特的股价重挫,是一次估值范式的切换。市场正在将它从不可预测的爆发式增长股,重新定价为可见度更高的稳健成长股。当增速从三位数回落至20%区间,现金流质量、盈利能力和护城河宽度,将成为更重要的估值定价因子。未来,市场对泡泡玛特的关注点将聚焦于三个指标:单一IP营收占比能否降到30%以下,证明平台的抗风险能力;海外单店模型能否交出精细化数据,验证全球化不是“烧钱换增长”;内容建设能否取得实质进展,为IP注入穿越周期的文化内核。“尊重时间,尊重经营。”王宁说过的这八个字,或许正是潮玩产业穿越周期的注脚。迪士尼花了数十年建立起米奇的文化地位,三丽鸥耕耘Hello 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全是一堆散户在玩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/541537696968928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529505041768912,"gmtCreate":1770294664388,"gmtModify":1770294666583,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 千万别上头,利好落地不是好事","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 千万别上头,利好落地不是好事","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 千万别上头,利好落地不是好事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529505041768912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528790133879432,"gmtCreate":1770130406742,"gmtModify":1770130408857,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 我想问蔚来的投资者一个问题:为什么蔚来销量一路走高,四季度大概率单季度盈利,然而股价却持续数年一路走低并维持跌破发行价的低位?为什么蔚来在美股、新股、港股三地上市却仍然股价低迷?为什么即使是在蔚小理三家新势力品牌中到今天仍然市值最低且差距不小?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 我想问蔚来的投资者一个问题:为什么蔚来销量一路走高,四季度大概率单季度盈利,然而股价却持续数年一路走低并维持跌破发行价的低位?为什么蔚来在美股、新股、港股三地上市却仍然股价低迷?为什么即使是在蔚小理三家新势力品牌中到今天仍然市值最低且差距不小?","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 我想问蔚来的投资者一个问题:为什么蔚来销量一路走高,四季度大概率单季度盈利,然而股价却持续数年一路走低并维持跌破发行价的低位?为什么蔚来在美股、新股、港股三地上市却仍然股价低迷?为什么即使是在蔚小理三家新势力品牌中到今天仍然市值最低且差距不小?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528790133879432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3460824243893799","authorId":"3460824243893799","name":"Jet2017","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440beaba18078db3c0c9976ad2baa925","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3460824243893799","idStr":"3460824243893799"},"content":"做空,让他们清醒一下","text":"做空,让他们清醒一下","html":"做空,让他们清醒一下"},{"author":{"id":"3457517955991377","authorId":"3457517955991377","name":"只买信仰股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ee74a010c0dd3e10097f3ecd2b5a827","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3457517955991377","idStr":"3457517955991377"},"content":"20年开始被深套的还在解套[捂脸]只要不分红,股票就没有任何价值,都是炒概念而已","text":"20年开始被深套的还在解套[捂脸]只要不分红,股票就没有任何价值,都是炒概念而已","html":"20年开始被深套的还在解套[捂脸]只要不分红,股票就没有任何价值,都是炒概念而已"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":518627715162512,"gmtCreate":1767592427105,"gmtModify":1767592429338,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$ </a> 新能源的冬天来了。渗透率基本触顶,全球新能源汽车发展规划基本取消,新能源产业倾斜政策逐步退出,社会对电动车安全性质疑不断,内卷导致新能源车企即使盈利的企业也开始返亏。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$ </a> 新能源的冬天来了。渗透率基本触顶,全球新能源汽车发展规划基本取消,新能源产业倾斜政策逐步退出,社会对电动车安全性质疑不断,内卷导致新能源车企即使盈利的企业也开始返亏。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ $小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ $理想汽车(LI)$ 新能源的冬天来了。渗透率基本触顶,全球新能源汽车发展规划基本取消,新能源产业倾斜政策逐步退出,社会对电动车安全性质疑不断,内卷导致新能源车企即使盈利的企业也开始返亏。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518627715162512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472539425201372","authorId":"3472539425201372","name":"楠竹先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d25305d2d90bf70f5bd39edd845328","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3472539425201372","idStr":"3472539425201372"},"content":"开你的燃油车去吧,老登!","text":"开你的燃油车去吧,老登!","html":"开你的燃油车去吧,老登!"},{"author":{"id":"3457343864384310","authorId":"3457343864384310","name":"做自己的后台","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3457343864384310","idStr":"3457343864384310"},"content":"渗透率触顶感觉还早。","text":"渗透率触顶感觉还早。","html":"渗透率触顶感觉还早。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":516006602928616,"gmtCreate":1766998904908,"gmtModify":1766998907494,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中国的车企目前没有一家可以说自己有护城河","listText":"中国的车企目前没有一家可以说自己有护城河","text":"中国的车企目前没有一家可以说自己有护城河","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/516006602928616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507368778772920,"gmtCreate":1764859828583,"gmtModify":1764859832153,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:说得很好,卖车收了钱,但供应商款还没付,所以虽然亏损,现金流还增加了//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:卖了这么多车 是没收钱吗[笑哭][笑哭][笑哭]//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:现金流转正了 3季度账上多了100亿","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:说得很好,卖车收了钱,但供应商款还没付,所以虽然亏损,现金流还增加了//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:卖了这么多车 是没收钱吗[笑哭][笑哭][笑哭]//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:现金流转正了 3季度账上多了100亿","text":"Replying to @只买信仰股:说得很好,卖车收了钱,但供应商款还没付,所以虽然亏损,现金流还增加了//@只买信仰股:卖了这么多车 是没收钱吗[笑哭][笑哭][笑哭]//@只买信仰股:现金流转正了 3季度账上多了100亿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507368778772920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274793181513","authorId":"3479274793181513","name":"qingg123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture140","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274793181513","idStr":"3479274793181513"},"content":"现金流改善但供应商款还没结,压力还在啊[吃瓜]","text":"现金流改善但供应商款还没结,压力还在啊[吃瓜]","html":"现金流改善但供应商款还没结,压力还在啊[吃瓜]"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000554","authorId":"9000000000000554","name":"IrmaBurke","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000554","idStr":"9000000000000554"},"content":"供應商帳期拉長,現金流可以撐一陣子","text":"供應商帳期拉長,現金流可以撐一陣子","html":"供應商帳期拉長,現金流可以撐一陣子"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507201102012952,"gmtCreate":1764858995766,"gmtModify":1764858998797,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:现金流会骗人,资产负债表不会骗人。3季度亏损,现金流还是正的,在没有新的融资下,唯一的可能就是债务增加了。//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:现金流转正了 3季度账上多了100亿","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:现金流会骗人,资产负债表不会骗人。3季度亏损,现金流还是正的,在没有新的融资下,唯一的可能就是债务增加了。//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3457517955991377\">@只买信仰股</a>:现金流转正了 3季度账上多了100亿","text":"Replying to @只买信仰股:现金流会骗人,资产负债表不会骗人。3季度亏损,现金流还是正的,在没有新的融资下,唯一的可能就是债务增加了。//@只买信仰股:现金流转正了 3季度账上多了100亿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507201102012952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000358","authorId":"9000000000000358","name":"VivienWilcox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef297533aecf0ca9678e827319cd033","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000358","idStr":"9000000000000358"},"content":"资产负债表里的债务项目要细看,应付账款也算负债哦","text":"资产负债表里的债务项目要细看,应付账款也算负债哦","html":"资产负债表里的债务项目要细看,应付账款也算负债哦"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504890221740408,"gmtCreate":1764282680245,"gmtModify":1764282683207,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没有规模 何来质量","listText":"没有规模 何来质量","text":"没有规模 何来质量","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504890221740408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504165366735040,"gmtCreate":1764121088454,"gmtModify":1764121090720,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ </a> 昨天的走势来看,又有机构在抛蔚来买小鹏。从风口来说,蔚来代表过气的新能源,小鹏代表下一个AI赛道。从市值来看,小鹏也是目前蔚小理最高的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ </a> 昨天的走势来看,又有机构在抛蔚来买小鹏。从风口来说,蔚来代表过气的新能源,小鹏代表下一个AI赛道。从市值来看,小鹏也是目前蔚小理最高的。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ $小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ 昨天的走势来看,又有机构在抛蔚来买小鹏。从风口来说,蔚来代表过气的新能源,小鹏代表下一个AI赛道。从市值来看,小鹏也是目前蔚小理最高的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504165366735040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503983803257568,"gmtCreate":1764077266772,"gmtModify":1764077268985,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 客观说,这个财报与展望,对于蔚来这家深陷亏损泥潭的公司来说,是很难得且不易的,至于很多人觉得指引不及预期,那是因为预期本来就太高。但是蔚来依然没有脱离靠不断融资才能活下去的困境,而且未来依然充满不确定性,这一点上来说,未来很长时间依然摆脱不了股价在低位震荡的可能。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 客观说,这个财报与展望,对于蔚来这家深陷亏损泥潭的公司来说,是很难得且不易的,至于很多人觉得指引不及预期,那是因为预期本来就太高。但是蔚来依然没有脱离靠不断融资才能活下去的困境,而且未来依然充满不确定性,这一点上来说,未来很长时间依然摆脱不了股价在低位震荡的可能。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 客观说,这个财报与展望,对于蔚来这家深陷亏损泥潭的公司来说,是很难得且不易的,至于很多人觉得指引不及预期,那是因为预期本来就太高。但是蔚来依然没有脱离靠不断融资才能活下去的困境,而且未来依然充满不确定性,这一点上来说,未来很长时间依然摆脱不了股价在低位震荡的可能。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/503983803257568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3558129441615288","authorId":"3558129441615288","name":"好韭不贱贱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9062908d1bfdf99b3652671f2028d3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3558129441615288","idStr":"3558129441615288"},"content":"其实可以赌未来以后能不能爆发那样现在入手的人就可以发大财了[贱笑]","text":"其实可以赌未来以后能不能爆发那样现在入手的人就可以发大财了[贱笑]","html":"其实可以赌未来以后能不能爆发那样现在入手的人就可以发大财了[贱笑]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503992947089816,"gmtCreate":1764055485015,"gmtModify":1764055486870,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 说点残酷的:蔚来现在还没有到发行价。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 说点残酷的:蔚来现在还没有到发行价。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 说点残酷的:蔚来现在还没有到发行价。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/503992947089816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502461648388992,"gmtCreate":1763690080727,"gmtModify":1763690082705,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 财报只有一个看点:毛利率。如果毛利率是增加的,说吗这波销量的成色还不错,可能股价会企稳;如果毛利率下降,基本就结束了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 财报只有一个看点:毛利率。如果毛利率是增加的,说吗这波销量的成色还不错,可能股价会企稳;如果毛利率下降,基本就结束了。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 财报只有一个看点:毛利率。如果毛利率是增加的,说吗这波销量的成色还不错,可能股价会企稳;如果毛利率下降,基本就结束了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502461648388992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499791636169608,"gmtCreate":1763044953231,"gmtModify":1763044955118,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 高点回撤20%,重新跌入熊市区间。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 高点回撤20%,重新跌入熊市区间。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 高点回撤20%,重新跌入熊市区间。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499791636169608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3532871133861998","authorId":"3532871133861998","name":"我就一手希尔伯克A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8923eb920620caab716cec43c0859f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3532871133861998","idStr":"3532871133861998"},"content":"回调而已,周线级别的波动就受不了吗","text":"回调而已,周线级别的波动就受不了吗","html":"回调而已,周线级别的波动就受不了吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":496919213932616,"gmtCreate":1762355668739,"gmtModify":1762400944332,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ </a> 股价做实真人假扮?做长线的可以忽略波动","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ </a> 股价做实真人假扮?做长线的可以忽略波动","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ 股价做实真人假扮?做长线的可以忽略波动","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496919213932616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":496270287995312,"gmtCreate":1762182429320,"gmtModify":1762182432007,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 本轮反弹基本接近尾声。虽然销量有较大的增长,但是离持续盈利还有很远的距离。 ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 本轮反弹基本接近尾声。虽然销量有较大的增长,但是离持续盈利还有很远的距离。 ","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 本轮反弹基本接近尾声。虽然销量有较大的增长,但是离持续盈利还有很远的距离。 ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496270287995312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4174687195810040","authorId":"4174687195810040","name":"早起是福","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4174687195810040","idStr":"4174687195810040"},"content":"那你赶紧做空啊。蔚来涨的那几天你跟落水的狗一样,怎么这几天你又支棱起来了?","text":"那你赶紧做空啊。蔚来涨的那几天你跟落水的狗一样,怎么这几天你又支棱起来了?","html":"那你赶紧做空啊。蔚来涨的那几天你跟落水的狗一样,怎么这几天你又支棱起来了?"},{"author":{"id":"3558394152365979","authorId":"3558394152365979","name":"Depp1955","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a21e5d32c3988e4280d5ad88a281bc","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3558394152365979","idStr":"3558394152365979"},"content":"抓紧做空赚大钱","text":"抓紧做空赚大钱","html":"抓紧做空赚大钱"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":491662480757512,"gmtCreate":1761055763609,"gmtModify":1761055765171,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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这换手率","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491662480757512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":491598664519912,"gmtCreate":1761040495254,"gmtModify":1761040497915,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不反对周榜了?","listText":"不反对周榜了?","text":"不反对周榜了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491598664519912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489786686522192,"gmtCreate":1760604474191,"gmtModify":1760604477497,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying 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周销不能低于13000,差很远","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489786686522192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489785937293424,"gmtCreate":1760604093093,"gmtModify":1760604247653,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518983480179242","idStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 坏消息是,gic可不是一般的投资机构,至少在专业性上轮不到散户怀疑,蔚来败诉可能将极大增加账面亏损额;好消息是如果gic索赔成功,那么在座的诸位买蔚来股票亏了钱的都可以索赔。如果真这样,蔚来就完蛋了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 坏消息是,gic可不是一般的投资机构,至少在专业性上轮不到散户怀疑,蔚来败诉可能将极大增加账面亏损额;好消息是如果gic索赔成功,那么在座的诸位买蔚来股票亏了钱的都可以索赔。如果真这样,蔚来就完蛋了。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 坏消息是,gic可不是一般的投资机构,至少在专业性上轮不到散户怀疑,蔚来败诉可能将极大增加账面亏损额;好消息是如果gic索赔成功,那么在座的诸位买蔚来股票亏了钱的都可以索赔。如果真这样,蔚来就完蛋了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489785937293424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":662827204,"gmtCreate":1666346452708,"gmtModify":1666346455134,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>站在市场的观点来说,目前美股远未触底,加息到什么时候也还是很大的未知数,要知道上次美国经历这样的通胀,最终加息到了20%,而现在的通胀比当时还要严重。特斯拉刚过去的三季度财报单季利润33亿美金,同比增长103%,依然开启下跌,当前特斯拉的市盈率已经来到了60多。说这些没有别的,对于蔚来这样在早起就几乎陷入增长乏力,而且很长时间都看不到盈利的企业来说,随着加息和美股下行的长时间持续,几乎没有任何的支撑点,未来不短于一年的时间,依然会是持续的下跌,发行价6元绝不是结束,1-2元可能才是最终的低点。再说一次:月度销量也好,et5也好,对于蔚来的股价不会产生任何实质的影响,如果有影响也只会有一个交易日,接下来还是无尽的下跌趋势。 40元的蔚来,很多人觉得便宜了,到30的时候,感觉股市没道理,等到20的时候,怂恿别人去抄底,现在10元附近了,开始觉得自己就是那个独具慧眼的价值投资者。 现实很残酷,从现在开始买蔚来,至少还会经历两次的被腰斩。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>站在市场的观点来说,目前美股远未触底,加息到什么时候也还是很大的未知数,要知道上次美国经历这样的通胀,最终加息到了20%,而现在的通胀比当时还要严重。特斯拉刚过去的三季度财报单季利润33亿美金,同比增长103%,依然开启下跌,当前特斯拉的市盈率已经来到了60多。说这些没有别的,对于蔚来这样在早起就几乎陷入增长乏力,而且很长时间都看不到盈利的企业来说,随着加息和美股下行的长时间持续,几乎没有任何的支撑点,未来不短于一年的时间,依然会是持续的下跌,发行价6元绝不是结束,1-2元可能才是最终的低点。再说一次:月度销量也好,et5也好,对于蔚来的股价不会产生任何实质的影响,如果有影响也只会有一个交易日,接下来还是无尽的下跌趋势。 40元的蔚来,很多人觉得便宜了,到30的时候,感觉股市没道理,等到20的时候,怂恿别人去抄底,现在10元附近了,开始觉得自己就是那个独具慧眼的价值投资者。 现实很残酷,从现在开始买蔚来,至少还会经历两次的被腰斩。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$站在市场的观点来说,目前美股远未触底,加息到什么时候也还是很大的未知数,要知道上次美国经历这样的通胀,最终加息到了20%,而现在的通胀比当时还要严重。特斯拉刚过去的三季度财报单季利润33亿美金,同比增长103%,依然开启下跌,当前特斯拉的市盈率已经来到了60多。说这些没有别的,对于蔚来这样在早起就几乎陷入增长乏力,而且很长时间都看不到盈利的企业来说,随着加息和美股下行的长时间持续,几乎没有任何的支撑点,未来不短于一年的时间,依然会是持续的下跌,发行价6元绝不是结束,1-2元可能才是最终的低点。再说一次:月度销量也好,et5也好,对于蔚来的股价不会产生任何实质的影响,如果有影响也只会有一个交易日,接下来还是无尽的下跌趋势。 40元的蔚来,很多人觉得便宜了,到30的时候,感觉股市没道理,等到20的时候,怂恿别人去抄底,现在10元附近了,开始觉得自己就是那个独具慧眼的价值投资者。 现实很残酷,从现在开始买蔚来,至少还会经历两次的被腰斩。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":31,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/662827204","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3540965151568136","authorId":"3540965151568136","name":"Boxer向前跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db186ef0281ccdc1ea5f8fc37b928bdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3540965151568136","authorIdStr":"3540965151568136"},"content":"张嘴就来啊,查一下相关数据美国加息至20%的时候,当时是恶性通胀,CPI年率达到惊人的14%,现在CPI月率也没到10%啊,年率更不会到10%","text":"张嘴就来啊,查一下相关数据美国加息至20%的时候,当时是恶性通胀,CPI年率达到惊人的14%,现在CPI月率也没到10%啊,年率更不会到10%","html":"张嘴就来啊,查一下相关数据美国加息至20%的时候,当时是恶性通胀,CPI年率达到惊人的14%,现在CPI月率也没到10%啊,年率更不会到10%"},{"author":{"id":"3501750755383732","authorId":"3501750755383732","name":"KOBE8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4434505d24c9583563152bf8f766b086","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3501750755383732","authorIdStr":"3501750755383732"},"content":"价值投资更不会买蔚来,趋势交易可以做空","text":"价值投资更不会买蔚来,趋势交易可以做空","html":"价值投资更不会买蔚来,趋势交易可以做空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638742125,"gmtCreate":1645543990069,"gmtModify":1645662768354,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>会不会最后中国电动车本土品牌的王者是理想汽车?理由有三:1、单款车独挑新势力不落下风;2、经营务实好于蔚来,品牌形象高于小鹏;3、理想推纯电只是时间问题,再获成功将彻底脱颖而出;4、率先实现盈利,当其他厂商还在攀比销量时,理想已经可以探讨市盈率了。5、企业最终是看企业家,李想就算你不喜欢,也几乎不招黑。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>会不会最后中国电动车本土品牌的王者是理想汽车?理由有三:1、单款车独挑新势力不落下风;2、经营务实好于蔚来,品牌形象高于小鹏;3、理想推纯电只是时间问题,再获成功将彻底脱颖而出;4、率先实现盈利,当其他厂商还在攀比销量时,理想已经可以探讨市盈率了。5、企业最终是看企业家,李想就算你不喜欢,也几乎不招黑。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$会不会最后中国电动车本土品牌的王者是理想汽车?理由有三:1、单款车独挑新势力不落下风;2、经营务实好于蔚来,品牌形象高于小鹏;3、理想推纯电只是时间问题,再获成功将彻底脱颖而出;4、率先实现盈利,当其他厂商还在攀比销量时,理想已经可以探讨市盈率了。5、企业最终是看企业家,李想就算你不喜欢,也几乎不招黑。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638742125","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557128455572177","authorId":"3557128455572177","name":"凌阿伦_____","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/591a314cbf88b4db130d41f73075ec2e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3557128455572177","authorIdStr":"3557128455572177"},"content":"怪不得一天到晚在黑蔚来,原来是理想吹","text":"怪不得一天到晚在黑蔚来,原来是理想吹","html":"怪不得一天到晚在黑蔚来,原来是理想吹"},{"author":{"id":"3556774996918690","authorId":"3556774996918690","name":"你受得了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d82b41addbc4ac7191f033862fdc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556774996918690","authorIdStr":"3556774996918690"},"content":"1.理想x01能不能复制理想one单品爆款的情况要划个问号。 2.理想本身的护城河在哪里?假设后期他推纯电了,能复制现在单品的成功?","text":"1.理想x01能不能复制理想one单品爆款的情况要划个问号。 2.理想本身的护城河在哪里?假设后期他推纯电了,能复制现在单品的成功?","html":"1.理想x01能不能复制理想one单品爆款的情况要划个问号。 2.理想本身的护城河在哪里?假设后期他推纯电了,能复制现在单品的成功?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632897789,"gmtCreate":1646322996319,"gmtModify":1646386787707,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>抛开理想谈蔚来,为什么说新势力将面临可能覆灭的冬天。电动车常用的全铝车身,铝价一路飞涨;芯片短缺且一路飞涨;锂电池资源匮乏合种原料一路飞涨。也就是说,制造电动车的核心部件全部都在以翻倍的速度飞涨,而且看不到头。另一方面,国家补贴持续退坡,市场竞争日趋激烈。而我们伟大的蔚来,还在咖啡与换电的路上不计成本一路狂奔,还在不走量的车型上不断玩花样。马斯克说过,这一轮金融危机下来,能存活的独角兽企业不超过1%,蔚小理如果只能活下来一家,会是谁?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>抛开理想谈蔚来,为什么说新势力将面临可能覆灭的冬天。电动车常用的全铝车身,铝价一路飞涨;芯片短缺且一路飞涨;锂电池资源匮乏合种原料一路飞涨。也就是说,制造电动车的核心部件全部都在以翻倍的速度飞涨,而且看不到头。另一方面,国家补贴持续退坡,市场竞争日趋激烈。而我们伟大的蔚来,还在咖啡与换电的路上不计成本一路狂奔,还在不走量的车型上不断玩花样。马斯克说过,这一轮金融危机下来,能存活的独角兽企业不超过1%,蔚小理如果只能活下来一家,会是谁?","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$抛开理想谈蔚来,为什么说新势力将面临可能覆灭的冬天。电动车常用的全铝车身,铝价一路飞涨;芯片短缺且一路飞涨;锂电池资源匮乏合种原料一路飞涨。也就是说,制造电动车的核心部件全部都在以翻倍的速度飞涨,而且看不到头。另一方面,国家补贴持续退坡,市场竞争日趋激烈。而我们伟大的蔚来,还在咖啡与换电的路上不计成本一路狂奔,还在不走量的车型上不断玩花样。马斯克说过,这一轮金融危机下来,能存活的独角兽企业不超过1%,蔚小理如果只能活下来一家,会是谁?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632897789","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000687","authorId":"9000000000000687","name":"先救我她有对象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ac112b8ed10bb069533864c6e9000d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000687","authorIdStr":"9000000000000687"},"content":"这个时候最重要的就是抢占市场,盈利不应该作为重要的参考指标","text":"这个时候最重要的就是抢占市场,盈利不应该作为重要的参考指标","html":"这个时候最重要的就是抢占市场,盈利不应该作为重要的参考指标"},{"author":{"id":"4098360788415140","authorId":"4098360788415140","name":"我希望有勇气","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4098360788415140","authorIdStr":"4098360788415140"},"content":"特斯拉的4680电池和整车设计,能够让成本继续下降,到时继续降价,国内车企怎么活","text":"特斯拉的4680电池和整车设计,能够让成本继续下降,到时继续降价,国内车企怎么活","html":"特斯拉的4680电池和整车设计,能够让成本继续下降,到时继续降价,国内车企怎么活"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668736974,"gmtCreate":1665153621899,"gmtModify":1665153623809,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>自己辛苦挣的钱,在这种毫无前途的公司上面不断的亏,很多还是对投资没什么经验的小白,靠着自己朴素的信仰或人云亦云不断麻醉自己,真的是我见犹怜。 制造业不是好生意,电动车发展趋缓,行业进入产能严重过剩时期,智能化一般企业根本玩不起也玩不动,最终都是电脑组装企业,没有核心技术就没有品牌,换电自始至终都是个笑话,没有强势的企业就没有爆款的可能,爆款不是碰运气。。。。 无论从哪个方向看,蔚来都是毫无前途的企业。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>自己辛苦挣的钱,在这种毫无前途的公司上面不断的亏,很多还是对投资没什么经验的小白,靠着自己朴素的信仰或人云亦云不断麻醉自己,真的是我见犹怜。 制造业不是好生意,电动车发展趋缓,行业进入产能严重过剩时期,智能化一般企业根本玩不起也玩不动,最终都是电脑组装企业,没有核心技术就没有品牌,换电自始至终都是个笑话,没有强势的企业就没有爆款的可能,爆款不是碰运气。。。。 无论从哪个方向看,蔚来都是毫无前途的企业。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$自己辛苦挣的钱,在这种毫无前途的公司上面不断的亏,很多还是对投资没什么经验的小白,靠着自己朴素的信仰或人云亦云不断麻醉自己,真的是我见犹怜。 制造业不是好生意,电动车发展趋缓,行业进入产能严重过剩时期,智能化一般企业根本玩不起也玩不动,最终都是电脑组装企业,没有核心技术就没有品牌,换电自始至终都是个笑话,没有强势的企业就没有爆款的可能,爆款不是碰运气。。。。 无论从哪个方向看,蔚来都是毫无前途的企业。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668736974","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3553691921143766","authorId":"3553691921143766","name":"150个W本金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4241350b535a851258ea39da6d61628","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3553691921143766","authorIdStr":"3553691921143766"},"content":"我在蔚来上亏了200w了 你说的狗p不是 股票不能代表什么 并不是股票跌了 就证明公司有问题 股票涨了公司就没问题 你看看现在股票有什么涨的吗 新能源一定是趋势 还有小鹏 都跌成什么样子了 并不影响有人去买 你可以说不看好 但不能说毫无前途 你啥也不是 你没有李斌有钱 也没有我有钱 你空了下蔚来赚了点钱 你就可以乱发言了?可以指指点点了吗","text":"我在蔚来上亏了200w了 你说的狗p不是 股票不能代表什么 并不是股票跌了 就证明公司有问题 股票涨了公司就没问题 你看看现在股票有什么涨的吗 新能源一定是趋势 还有小鹏 都跌成什么样子了 并不影响有人去买 你可以说不看好 但不能说毫无前途 你啥也不是 你没有李斌有钱 也没有我有钱 你空了下蔚来赚了点钱 你就可以乱发言了?可以指指点点了吗","html":"我在蔚来上亏了200w了 你说的狗p不是 股票不能代表什么 并不是股票跌了 就证明公司有问题 股票涨了公司就没问题 你看看现在股票有什么涨的吗 新能源一定是趋势 还有小鹏 都跌成什么样子了 并不影响有人去买 你可以说不看好 但不能说毫无前途 你啥也不是 你没有李斌有钱 也没有我有钱 你空了下蔚来赚了点钱 你就可以乱发言了?可以指指点点了吗"},{"author":{"id":"3555385946457146","authorId":"3555385946457146","name":"田埂上的梦1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555385946457146","authorIdStr":"3555385946457146"},"content":"是啊,我在蔚来上面也亏了不少了","text":"是啊,我在蔚来上面也亏了不少了","html":"是啊,我在蔚来上面也亏了不少了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":268698917814480,"gmtCreate":1706631259230,"gmtModify":1706692008075,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 从市值上来说,当前100亿美金左右的市值,甚至低于赛力斯。如果电动汽车的方向不被证伪,那么蔚来的资产价值和品牌价值大概率不会低于80亿美金,股价大概率底部是在5元左右。这与是否盈利无关,这基本是蔚来的估值底,也就是80亿美金左右的市值。 但这是否代表5元将是蔚来的铁底呢?答案是否。5元是底的前提是蔚来不再融资。 以蔚来当前的财务状况,3-5年之内都很难盈利(高端车无法在欧美扩展销量,国内经济滑坡大环境,中低端车面临长期价格竞争),假设未来3-5年融资40亿美金,那么80-100亿市值对应就是股价3.5元左右。40亿够吗?需要打个问号。 所以长远来看,蔚来股价在未来三年可能下探的极限是3元左右。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a> 从市值上来说,当前100亿美金左右的市值,甚至低于赛力斯。如果电动汽车的方向不被证伪,那么蔚来的资产价值和品牌价值大概率不会低于80亿美金,股价大概率底部是在5元左右。这与是否盈利无关,这基本是蔚来的估值底,也就是80亿美金左右的市值。 但这是否代表5元将是蔚来的铁底呢?答案是否。5元是底的前提是蔚来不再融资。 以蔚来当前的财务状况,3-5年之内都很难盈利(高端车无法在欧美扩展销量,国内经济滑坡大环境,中低端车面临长期价格竞争),假设未来3-5年融资40亿美金,那么80-100亿市值对应就是股价3.5元左右。40亿够吗?需要打个问号。 所以长远来看,蔚来股价在未来三年可能下探的极限是3元左右。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 从市值上来说,当前100亿美金左右的市值,甚至低于赛力斯。如果电动汽车的方向不被证伪,那么蔚来的资产价值和品牌价值大概率不会低于80亿美金,股价大概率底部是在5元左右。这与是否盈利无关,这基本是蔚来的估值底,也就是80亿美金左右的市值。 但这是否代表5元将是蔚来的铁底呢?答案是否。5元是底的前提是蔚来不再融资。 以蔚来当前的财务状况,3-5年之内都很难盈利(高端车无法在欧美扩展销量,国内经济滑坡大环境,中低端车面临长期价格竞争),假设未来3-5年融资40亿美金,那么80-100亿市值对应就是股价3.5元左右。40亿够吗?需要打个问号。 所以长远来看,蔚来股价在未来三年可能下探的极限是3元左右。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268698917814480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3555770410457530","authorId":"3555770410457530","name":"叶杨小小","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e85c10805bb59769974dc823befe65a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555770410457530","authorIdStr":"3555770410457530"},"content":"纯电还是有里程焦虑,车辆销售对象主要还是一线和二线城市,蔚来应该也做一款混动的豪华车维持销量,不过现在看有些晚了","text":"纯电还是有里程焦虑,车辆销售对象主要还是一线和二线城市,蔚来应该也做一款混动的豪华车维持销量,不过现在看有些晚了","html":"纯电还是有里程焦虑,车辆销售对象主要还是一线和二线城市,蔚来应该也做一款混动的豪华车维持销量,不过现在看有些晚了"},{"author":{"id":"3547253536289088","authorId":"3547253536289088","name":"Johnny812","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25d58788ab65295ce6f25b1c8015ea1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547253536289088","authorIdStr":"3547253536289088"},"content":"3元?你太乐观了吧?不出3年,这股就是个毛票,无论是投资人还是散户,注定血本无归!","text":"3元?你太乐观了吧?不出3年,这股就是个毛票,无论是投资人还是散户,注定血本无归!","html":"3元?你太乐观了吧?不出3年,这股就是个毛票,无论是投资人还是散户,注定血本无归!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607532781,"gmtCreate":1639559731793,"gmtModify":1639582192830,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>看了秦力洪的采访,nioday不会有什么好消息了,下周跌破25。","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>五成仓,成本7.3。蔚来获得造车资质与生产工厂,虽然不能拯救蔚来的销量,甚至不能拯救蔚来,但是让蔚来即使被收购,也具备了较大的实物价值,可以比较放心的底部建仓。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>五成仓,成本7.3。蔚来获得造车资质与生产工厂,虽然不能拯救蔚来的销量,甚至不能拯救蔚来,但是让蔚来即使被收购,也具备了较大的实物价值,可以比较放心的底部建仓。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 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新能源的冬天来了。渗透率基本触顶,全球新能源汽车发展规划基本取消,新能源产业倾斜政策逐步退出,社会对电动车安全性质疑不断,内卷导致新能源车企即使盈利的企业也开始返亏。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518627715162512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472539425201372","authorId":"3472539425201372","name":"楠竹先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d25305d2d90bf70f5bd39edd845328","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3472539425201372","authorIdStr":"3472539425201372"},"content":"开你的燃油车去吧,老登!","text":"开你的燃油车去吧,老登!","html":"开你的燃油车去吧,老登!"},{"author":{"id":"3457343864384310","authorId":"3457343864384310","name":"做自己的后台","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3457343864384310","authorIdStr":"3457343864384310"},"content":"渗透率触顶感觉还早。","text":"渗透率触顶感觉还早。","html":"渗透率触顶感觉还早。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489779392237568,"gmtCreate":1760602578389,"gmtModify":1760602585471,"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"forcec","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"四季度要盈利的话 周销不能低于13000,差很远","listText":"四季度要盈利的话 周销不能低于13000,差很远","text":"四季度要盈利的话 周销不能低于13000,差很远","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489779392237568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586288083515527","authorId":"3586288083515527","name":"Abner1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586288083515527","authorIdStr":"3586288083515527"},"content":"说好不删帖呢,怎么以前的都删了","text":"说好不删帖呢,怎么以前的都删了","html":"说好不删帖呢,怎么以前的都删了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}