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畜牧教主马斯克
信徒基本守则:特斯拉不是车企,是规模最大的养殖业公司。做空/卖出特斯拉就是认知不够,跌了只能加仓,马大炮是神!马大炮拯救世界!2025特斯拉改名特能吹!要相信自己的认知永远是最高的!
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畜牧教主马斯克
02-07 00:38
对于fsd传统车企并不买账的情况,特斯拉也是急得不行了[开心] 谁想帮别人付费测试呢?什么时候真正的对得起fsd这个名字的时候再来和别人谈合作的事情吧
特斯拉副总裁陶琳:愿意将FSD能力开放给更多车企使用,未来每一辆车都应该具备自动驾驶能力
畜牧教主马斯克
02-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
马上杀到马圣的加仓价了,之前说400铁底的人不见了[冷漠]
畜牧教主马斯克
02-06
$微软(MSFT)$
ai领导者竟然被认为会被ai杀死吗[笑哭] 华尔街是不是疯了,这是集体做空加剧恐慌氛围啊
畜牧教主马斯克
02-05
$微软(MSFT)$
差不多调整到位了,苹果修复完了就该到微软了[开心]
畜牧教主马斯克
02-04
这下画饼连ppt都不用放了[开心]
马斯克称“擎天柱”将成为冯诺依曼式探测器,在任何宜居星球上自主建立文明
畜牧教主马斯克
02-03
$PayPal(PYPL)$
原来觉得55稳妥,现在看来竞争加剧市场被蚕食,35-40之间稳妥了
畜牧教主马斯克
02-02
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
没见过哪家公司的高管立马一直强调别人不要当它是车企要把它当科技公司看的,也就特斯拉如此特殊[微笑]
畜牧教主马斯克
01-30
目前的版本根本没有实用性怎么确定未来市场一定会买账?而且就一年的时间去优化...?论自信还是得马圣呀,看了赛博皮卡和S还有X的销量都哭了。
马斯克:特斯拉Optimus进行产能爬坡,将建设年产1000万台的产线
畜牧教主马斯克
01-29
一副救世主的嘴脸[笑哭] 这就是宗教
马斯克:“不希望人类灭绝”
畜牧教主马斯克
01-29
[开心] 自动驾驶可能还算能用,机器人是完全没在公开场合不用远程控制出现过,这东西真的能卖吗?为了维持高估值只能拼命甩出看似新东西的马圣
特斯拉将停产Model S和X,生产线转至制造人形机器人Optimus
畜牧教主马斯克
01-28
马圣的畜牧业可是出了不少力,你不要乱说
特斯拉2025年品牌价值已暴跌36% 马斯克在拖后腿?
畜牧教主马斯克
01-26
鉴定为吹牛,按照马圣的路线来吹那注定是要延期的,走着瞧吧。
卖车已是过去式:2026年,特斯拉正式开始剥离“汽车公司”的皮囊
畜牧教主马斯克
01-26
有马圣在特斯拉不会平庸,因为畜牧业很成功[开心] 扁的说圆的各位信徒也会说马圣是对的,就是这么成功
特斯拉的最大风险:归于平庸
畜牧教主马斯克
01-23
$博通(AVGO)$
奔着300去了[笑哭]
畜牧教主马斯克
01-23
只能说畜牧业很成功,去年吹下的牛几个实现了
[开心]
马斯克达沃斯秀蓝图:明年公开发售Optimus机器人,今年Robotaxi将在美“非常普及”、AI或超越人类
畜牧教主马斯克
01-23
[开心] 还没成功量产的东西就开始画饼上了
直击达沃斯|马斯克:将在年底或明年向公众销售人形机器人
畜牧教主马斯克
01-14
关于这个问题就想想第一批支持马圣的老车主吧,因为硬件问题用不了最新版本的fsd现在都还不知道何去何从[开心] [开心] [开心]
特斯拉FSD大转向:从“买断”全面改为订阅,拟于2月14日后生效
畜牧教主马斯克
01-12
rivian没有马圣的畜牧业肯定搞不过特斯拉。
观点 | 为何当下押注 Rivian,比特斯拉更具吸引力?
畜牧教主马斯克
01-09
什么老旧新闻,电动重卡和Roadster两款车都没有量产,可见当时吹得有多狠现在就有多尴尬。
特斯拉电动卡车实测:性能强劲能耗低,三车组队还能省大钱!
畜牧教主马斯克
01-09
其中有段写得很好,训练特斯拉投资者忽略短期业绩,可不就是马圣的畜牧业吗[开心]
特斯拉股价因“马斯克效应”而飙升,SpaceX 投资者需要知道什么?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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谁想帮别人付费测试呢?什么时候真正的对得起fsd这个名字的时候再来和别人谈合作的事情吧","listText":"对于fsd传统车企并不买账的情况,特斯拉也是急得不行了[开心] 谁想帮别人付费测试呢?什么时候真正的对得起fsd这个名字的时候再来和别人谈合作的事情吧","text":"对于fsd传统车企并不买账的情况,特斯拉也是急得不行了[开心] 谁想帮别人付费测试呢?什么时候真正的对得起fsd这个名字的时候再来和别人谈合作的事情吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529919698441040","repostId":"2609976955","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2609976955","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770392340,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2609976955?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-06 23:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉副总裁陶琳:愿意将FSD能力开放给更多车企使用,未来每一辆车都应该具备自动驾驶能力","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2609976955","media":"新浪科技","summary":"新浪科技讯 2月6日晚间消息,据媒体报道,特斯拉副总裁陶琳在一场交流会上阐述了公司2026年的战略规划与业务布局。陶琳表示,特斯拉一直秉持开放的理念。就像充电网络已经向其他品牌开放一样,特斯拉未来也愿意将FSD能力开放给更多车企使用。她说,特斯拉的世界模型可以更高效地适配到不同车辆上,帮助整个行业更快进入自动驾驶时代。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 新浪科技讯 2月6日晚间消息,据媒体报道,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>副总裁陶琳在一场交流会上阐述了公司2026年的战略规划与业务布局。</p>\n<p> 未来FSD是否会向其他车企开放?陶琳表示,特斯拉一直秉持开放的理念。就像充电网络已经向其他品牌开放一样,特斯拉未来也愿意将FSD能力开放给更多车企使用。当然,这需要一定的合作开发,目前特斯拉的精力主要集中在自身系统完善上,还没有正式启动,但这是一个明确的长期方向。</p>\n<p> “我们认为,未来每一辆车都应该具备自动驾驶能力。但并不是每一家车企都有能力从零开始研发完整系统,这需要巨额资金、庞大团队以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>。”她说,特斯拉的世界模型可以更高效地适配到不同车辆上,帮助整个行业更快进入自动驾驶时代。FSD进入中国的意义,某种程度上可能会类似当年上海超级工厂对新能源汽车产业的推动作用。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:陈钰嘉 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉副总裁陶琳:愿意将FSD能力开放给更多车企使用,未来每一辆车都应该具备自动驾驶能力</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉副总裁陶琳:愿意将FSD能力开放给更多车企使用,未来每一辆车都应该具备自动驾驶能力\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-06 23:39 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-02-06/doc-inhkxcfv7812444.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新浪科技讯 2月6日晚间消息,据媒体报道,特斯拉副总裁陶琳在一场交流会上阐述了公司2026年的战略规划与业务布局。\n 未来FSD是否会向其他车企开放?陶琳表示,特斯拉一直秉持开放的理念。就像充电网络已经向其他品牌开放一样,特斯拉未来也愿意将FSD能力开放给更多车企使用。当然,这需要一定的合作开发,目前特斯拉的精力主要集中在自身系统完善上,还没有正式启动,但这是一个明确的长期方向。\n “我们认为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-02-06/doc-inhkxcfv7812444.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH 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华尔街是不是疯了,这是集体做空加剧恐慌氛围啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529620935824728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3561649565466203","authorId":"3561649565466203","name":"Huan娱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f0e6d86680b202c05ed56a4c11e9bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561649565466203","authorIdStr":"3561649565466203"},"content":"黄金坑!390~400就是买入区间😊","text":"黄金坑!390~400就是买入区间😊","html":"黄金坑!390~400就是买入区间😊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529218305311528,"gmtCreate":1770239790249,"gmtModify":1770239792124,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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","text":"这下画饼连ppt都不用放了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529126258155768","repostId":"2608381373","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608381373","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1770162061,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608381373?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-04 07:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克称“擎天柱”将成为冯诺依曼式探测器,在任何宜居星球上自主建立文明","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608381373","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"一位X用户评论SpaceX与xAI合并的消息称:“每年启动太瓦级的AI计算??如果这成为现实,那将是能想象到的最奇特的科幻时间线之一。这会是冯诺依曼式探测器(一种理论上的自我复制航天器,可以用来殖民恒星系统)开始的方式吗?”\n 马斯克回应称:“是的,‘擎天柱’将是第一台冯诺依曼式机器,它能够在任何适宜居住的星球上自主建立文明。”\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:于健 SF069","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 一位X用户评论SpaceX与xAI合并的消息称:“每年启动太瓦级的AI计算??如果这成为现实,那将是能想象到的最奇特的科幻时间线之一。这会是冯诺依曼式探测器(一种理论上的自我复制航天器,可以用来殖民<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002132\">恒星</a>系统)开始的方式吗?”</p>\n<p> 马斯克回应称:“是的,‘擎天柱’将是第一台冯诺依曼式机器,它能够在任何适宜居住的星球上自主建立文明。”</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/395/w550h645/20260204/acfa-565c44191aae272fb118ac3b0ed8f61e.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:于健 SF069</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克称“擎天柱”将成为冯诺依曼式探测器,在任何宜居星球上自主建立文明</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-02-04/doc-inhkrayt6703047.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/395/w550h645/20260204/acfa-565c44191aae272fb118ac3b0ed8f61e.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4543":"AI","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) 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没见过哪家公司的高管立马一直强调别人不要当它是车企要把它当科技公司看的,也就特斯拉如此特殊[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528321707136728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282"},"content":"事实也是个不务正业的车企因为拥有更加远大的志向,汽车只是过渡产品。","text":"事实也是个不务正业的车企因为拥有更加远大的志向,汽车只是过渡产品。","html":"事实也是个不务正业的车企因为拥有更加远大的志向,汽车只是过渡产品。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":527428071220384,"gmtCreate":1769787522625,"gmtModify":1769787524948,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"目前的版本根本没有实用性怎么确定未来市场一定会买账?而且就一年的时间去优化...?论自信还是得马圣呀,看了赛博皮卡和S还有X的销量都哭了。","listText":"目前的版本根本没有实用性怎么确定未来市场一定会买账?而且就一年的时间去优化...?论自信还是得马圣呀,看了赛博皮卡和S还有X的销量都哭了。","text":"目前的版本根本没有实用性怎么确定未来市场一定会买账?而且就一年的时间去优化...?论自信还是得马圣呀,看了赛博皮卡和S还有X的销量都哭了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527428071220384","repostId":"2607043586","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2607043586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769777928,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2607043586?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-30 20:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克:特斯拉Optimus进行产能爬坡,将建设年产1000万台的产线","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607043586","media":"IT之家","summary":"建设一条年产 1000 万台的产线。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月30日周五, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 盘中“逆市”拉升涨超4%。知情人士透露,在今年上市之前,马斯克旗下SpaceX和xAI正在商讨合并事宜,此次合并将把马斯克的火箭、星链卫星、X社交媒体平台以及Grok人工智能聊天机器人整合到一起。</p><p>此外,外媒综合马斯克的近期发言,介绍了特斯拉 Optimus 4 机器人的生产布局。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f016bb79060f9bc6ed0d5e22a1e4a58d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>具体来说,特斯拉 Optimus 机器人首条产线将设在加州弗里蒙特工厂,该产线将具备年产 100 万台人形机器人的能力。后续公司将在得州超级工厂进行产能爬坡,建设一条年产 1000 万台的产线。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88bdfbe1d878ff7e3c782f894f056fc1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"793\"/></p><p>不过,考虑到民众适应机器人需要一段时间,因此马斯克认为“Optimus 初期的产量提升会相对谨慎”,但其依然坚信这款人形机器人最终可能对社会和经济产生深远影响。</p><p>Optimus 本质上会是一款通用型机器人,能够通过观察人类行为来学习。你可以示范一个任务、口头描述一个任务,甚至给它看一段视频,它都能学会去完成。这将是一款能力非常强的机器人。从长期来看,我认为 Optimus 会对美国 GDP 产生非常显著的影响。</p></body></html>","source":"ithome","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克:特斯拉Optimus进行产能爬坡,将建设年产1000万台的产线</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克:特斯拉Optimus进行产能爬坡,将建设年产1000万台的产线\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-30 20:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.ithome.com/0/917/980.htm><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月30日周五, 特斯拉 盘中“逆市”拉升涨超4%。知情人士透露,在今年上市之前,马斯克旗下SpaceX和xAI正在商讨合并事宜,此次合并将把马斯克的火箭、星链卫星、X社交媒体平台以及Grok人工智能聊天机器人整合到一起。此外,外媒综合马斯克的近期发言,介绍了特斯拉 Optimus 4 机器人的生产布局。具体来说,特斯拉 Optimus 机器人首条产线将设在加州弗里蒙特工厂,该产线将具备年产 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ithome.com/0/917/980.htm\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9753361e4f73430b74709d4b04b8819f","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.ithome.com/0/917/980.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2607043586","content_text":"1月30日周五, 特斯拉 盘中“逆市”拉升涨超4%。知情人士透露,在今年上市之前,马斯克旗下SpaceX和xAI正在商讨合并事宜,此次合并将把马斯克的火箭、星链卫星、X社交媒体平台以及Grok人工智能聊天机器人整合到一起。此外,外媒综合马斯克的近期发言,介绍了特斯拉 Optimus 4 机器人的生产布局。具体来说,特斯拉 Optimus 机器人首条产线将设在加州弗里蒙特工厂,该产线将具备年产 100 万台人形机器人的能力。后续公司将在得州超级工厂进行产能爬坡,建设一条年产 1000 万台的产线。不过,考虑到民众适应机器人需要一段时间,因此马斯克认为“Optimus 初期的产量提升会相对谨慎”,但其依然坚信这款人形机器人最终可能对社会和经济产生深远影响。Optimus 本质上会是一款通用型机器人,能够通过观察人类行为来学习。你可以示范一个任务、口头描述一个任务,甚至给它看一段视频,它都能学会去完成。这将是一款能力非常强的机器人。从长期来看,我认为 Optimus 会对美国 GDP 产生非常显著的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4204949070832372","authorId":"4204949070832372","name":"哟哟哟 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这就是宗教","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527110043899504","repostId":"2607803587","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2607803587","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769696940,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2607803587?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-29 22:29","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"马斯克:“不希望人类灭绝”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607803587","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"有网友问,“埃隆,我有个问题。既然人工智能终将接管所有工作,你明明清楚未来就业岗位会减少,为什么还建议大家多生孩子呢?”\n 马斯克对此回应称:“将会有全民高收入和育儿福利,而且我热爱人类,不希望我们走向灭绝。”\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:陈钰嘉","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 有网友问,“埃隆,我有个问题。既然人工智能终将接管所有工作,你明明清楚未来就业岗位会减少,为什么还建议大家多生孩子呢?”</p>\n<p> 马斯克对此回应称:“将会有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>高收入和育儿福利,而且我热爱人类,不希望我们走向灭绝。”</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/25/w550h275/20260129/c510-046e0f69c13ed257604ca30bf9311901.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:陈钰嘉 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克:“不希望人类灭绝”</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-29/doc-inhiywcy0621823.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE 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马斯克对此回应称:“将会有全民高收入和育儿福利,而且我热爱人类,不希望我们走向灭绝。”\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:陈钰嘉","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TESL":0.6,"TSLA":1.85,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSYY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":527043602744872,"gmtCreate":1769680963501,"gmtModify":1769680966490,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心] 自动驾驶可能还算能用,机器人是完全没在公开场合不用远程控制出现过,这东西真的能卖吗?为了维持高估值只能拼命甩出看似新东西的马圣","listText":"[开心] 自动驾驶可能还算能用,机器人是完全没在公开场合不用远程控制出现过,这东西真的能卖吗?为了维持高估值只能拼命甩出看似新东西的马圣","text":"[开心] 自动驾驶可能还算能用,机器人是完全没在公开场合不用远程控制出现过,这东西真的能卖吗?为了维持高估值只能拼命甩出看似新东西的马圣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527043602744872","repostId":"1196380610","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196380610","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769646208,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196380610?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-29 08:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉将停产Model S和X,生产线转至制造人形机器人Optimus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196380610","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周三美股盘后,特斯拉Q4财报电话会上CEO马斯克宣布,公司将停止生产Model S和Model X车型,并将位于加州弗里蒙特的工厂生产线转为制造Optimus人形机器人。这标志着特斯拉最早推出的两款车型正式退出历史舞台,公司战略重心进一步从传统电动汽车转向自动驾驶和人形机器人领域。华尔街见闻提及,特斯拉在财报中披露,计划本季度发布第三代Optimus,这将是\"首个面向大规模生产设计的版本\"。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>马斯克表示:“现在是时候以体面的方式终止Model S和X项目了。因为我们真的正在迈向一个基于自动驾驶的未来。如果你有兴趣购买Model S和X,现在是下单的时候。”他表示,公司将在弗里蒙特工厂建立一条年产能100万台的Optimus生产线。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉将停产Model S和X,将生产线转至制造人形机器人Optimus。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周三美股盘后,特斯拉Q4财报电话会上CEO马斯克宣布,<strong>公司将停止生产Model S和Model X车型,并将位于加州弗里蒙特的工厂生产线转为制造Optimus人形机器人。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这标志着特斯拉最早推出的两款车型正式退出历史舞台,公司战略重心进一步从传统电动汽车转向自动驾驶和人形机器人领域。马斯克表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在是时候以体面的方式终止Model S和X项目了。因为我们真的正在迈向一个基于自动驾驶的未来。所以,如果你有兴趣购买Model S或Model X,现在就是预订的最佳时机。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这两款车型是特斯拉最早推出的产品,但近年来随着全球电动汽车竞争加剧,公司已多次大幅降价。去年这两款车型仅占特斯拉159万辆交付量的3%,远不及Model 3和Model Y的销售表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>马斯克表示,公司将在弗里蒙特工厂建立一条年产能100万台的Optimus生产线。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街见闻提及,特斯拉在财报中披露,计划本季度发布第三代Optimus,这将是"首个面向大规模生产设计的版本"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司正在开发这款双足智能机器人,目标是使其能够完成从工厂作业到看护儿童等各类任务。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉将停产Model S和X,生产线转至制造人形机器人Optimus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n特斯拉将停产Model S和X,生产线转至制造人形机器人Optimus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-29 08:23 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764410><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>马斯克表示:“现在是时候以体面的方式终止Model S和X项目了。因为我们真的正在迈向一个基于自动驾驶的未来。如果你有兴趣购买Model S和X,现在是下单的时候。”他表示,公司将在弗里蒙特工厂建立一条年产能100万台的Optimus生产线。特斯拉将停产Model S和X,将生产线转至制造人形机器人Optimus。周三美股盘后,特斯拉Q4财报电话会上CEO马斯克宣布,公司将停止生产Model S和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764410\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340d3c04436bbba1df239d6d4a7e3fd2","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764410","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196380610","content_text":"马斯克表示:“现在是时候以体面的方式终止Model S和X项目了。因为我们真的正在迈向一个基于自动驾驶的未来。如果你有兴趣购买Model S和X,现在是下单的时候。”他表示,公司将在弗里蒙特工厂建立一条年产能100万台的Optimus生产线。特斯拉将停产Model S和X,将生产线转至制造人形机器人Optimus。周三美股盘后,特斯拉Q4财报电话会上CEO马斯克宣布,公司将停止生产Model S和Model X车型,并将位于加州弗里蒙特的工厂生产线转为制造Optimus人形机器人。这标志着特斯拉最早推出的两款车型正式退出历史舞台,公司战略重心进一步从传统电动汽车转向自动驾驶和人形机器人领域。马斯克表示:现在是时候以体面的方式终止Model S和X项目了。因为我们真的正在迈向一个基于自动驾驶的未来。所以,如果你有兴趣购买Model S或Model X,现在就是预订的最佳时机。这两款车型是特斯拉最早推出的产品,但近年来随着全球电动汽车竞争加剧,公司已多次大幅降价。去年这两款车型仅占特斯拉159万辆交付量的3%,远不及Model 3和Model Y的销售表现。马斯克表示,公司将在弗里蒙特工厂建立一条年产能100万台的Optimus生产线。华尔街见闻提及,特斯拉在财报中披露,计划本季度发布第三代Optimus,这将是\"首个面向大规模生产设计的版本\"。公司正在开发这款双足智能机器人,目标是使其能够完成从工厂作业到看护儿童等各类任务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":526519533745296,"gmtCreate":1769572544800,"gmtModify":1769572547155,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"马圣的畜牧业可是出了不少力,你不要乱说","listText":"马圣的畜牧业可是出了不少力,你不要乱说","text":"马圣的畜牧业可是出了不少力,你不要乱说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/526519533745296","repostId":"2606650752","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606650752","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769560920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606650752?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-28 08:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉2025年品牌价值已暴跌36% 马斯克在拖后腿?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606650752","media":"智能汽车","summary":"报告指出,特斯拉品牌价值的下滑幅度创下纪录,与2023年初662亿美元的峰值相比,已蒸发58%。从市场表现来看,特斯拉在多个关键指标上均呈现恶化趋势。美国消费者的推荐评分从2023年的满分10分中的8.2分暴跌至4.0分,表明超过60%的用户不再愿意向亲友推荐购买特斯拉。在欧洲市场,特斯拉的购车考虑率也从21%降至16%,被梅赛德斯和比亚迪等品牌反超。此外,特斯拉CEO马斯克频频发表争议言论,也对特斯拉产生了一定负面影响。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【CNMO科技消息】根据英国品牌估值机构Brand Finance发布的最新报告,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的品牌价值在2025年大幅缩水154亿美元,约合人民币1100亿元,同比暴跌36%,已连续第三年下滑,降至276亿美元。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260128085033360d206xc37sl54pl0\"/><p>报告指出,特斯拉品牌价值的下滑幅度创下纪录,与2023年初662亿美元的峰值相比,已蒸发58%。此次评估综合了财务数据和全球消费者调研结果,覆盖18个国家超10万份问卷,其权威性得到了达沃斯论坛的认可。</p><p>从市场表现来看,特斯拉在多个关键指标上均呈现恶化趋势。美国消费者的推荐评分从2023年的满分10分中的8.2分暴跌至4.0分,表明超过60%的用户不再愿意向亲友推荐购买特斯拉。在欧洲市场,特斯拉的购车考虑率也从21%降至16%,被梅赛德斯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>等品牌反超。尽管美国车主的忠诚度逆势上升至92%,但品牌整体的“酷炫度”指标却大幅下降,存量用户的黏性与增量吸引力之间出现了严重背离。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260128085037682d206ajwn48h9vii\"/><p>Brand Finance首席执行官戴维·黑格分析认为,特斯拉品牌价值的下滑主要归因于产品力断层与定价失衡。主力车型Model 3和Model Y长期未换代,难以满足市场需求;而新车型Cybertruck销量惨淡,且频繁召回。同时,特斯拉在定价策略上也面临挑战,性价比劣势逐渐凸显。此外,特斯拉CEO马斯克频频发表争议言论,也对特斯拉产生了一定负面影响。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉2025年品牌价值已暴跌36% 马斯克在拖后腿?</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260128085058a45de70d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) 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Finance发布的最新报告,特斯拉的品牌价值在2025年大幅缩水154亿美元,约合人民币1100亿元,同比暴跌36%,已连续第三年下滑,降至276亿美元。报告指出,特斯拉品牌价值的下滑幅度创下纪录,与2023年初662亿美元的峰值相比,已蒸发58%。此次评估综合了财务数据和全球消费者调研结果,覆盖18个国家超10万份问卷,其权威性得到了达沃斯论坛的认可。从市场表现来看,特斯拉在多个关键指标上均呈现恶化趋势。美国消费者的推荐评分从2023年的满分10分中的8.2分暴跌至4.0分,表明超过60%的用户不再愿意向亲友推荐购买特斯拉。在欧洲市场,特斯拉的购车考虑率也从21%降至16%,被梅赛德斯和比亚迪等品牌反超。尽管美国车主的忠诚度逆势上升至92%,但品牌整体的“酷炫度”指标却大幅下降,存量用户的黏性与增量吸引力之间出现了严重背离。Brand Finance首席执行官戴维·黑格分析认为,特斯拉品牌价值的下滑主要归因于产品力断层与定价失衡。主力车型Model 3和Model Y长期未换代,难以满足市场需求;而新车型Cybertruck销量惨淡,且频繁召回。同时,特斯拉在定价策略上也面临挑战,性价比劣势逐渐凸显。此外,特斯拉CEO马斯克频频发表争议言论,也对特斯拉产生了一定负面影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TESL":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"UFO":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"07766":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":525996539818552,"gmtCreate":1769442000334,"gmtModify":1769442003064,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"鉴定为吹牛,按照马圣的路线来吹那注定是要延期的,走着瞧吧。","listText":"鉴定为吹牛,按照马圣的路线来吹那注定是要延期的,走着瞧吧。","text":"鉴定为吹牛,按照马圣的路线来吹那注定是要延期的,走着瞧吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525996539818552","repostId":"2606263217","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606263217","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769421691,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606263217?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-26 18:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"卖车已是过去式:2026年,特斯拉正式开始剥离“汽车公司”的皮囊","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606263217","media":"硅基商业笔记","summary":"2026年成为了一个明确的分水岭,标志着埃隆·马斯克正式开始剥离汽车公司这层由于历史原因被迫穿上的旧皮囊,转向以完全自动驾驶和人形机器人为核心的利润新纪元。对于特斯拉而言,剥离汽车公司皮囊的第一步,就是改变车辆的所有权结构与使用权逻辑。在旧模式下,特斯拉将车卖给用户,交易即终止。此时特斯拉的角色从汽车制造商转变为全球最大的出行运力提供商。2026年注定是特斯拉发展史上的一个断裂点。","content":"<html><body><article><p>在2026年第一季度的财报分析会上,华尔街的分析师们敏锐地捕捉到了一个信号,尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的汽车交付量增长曲线趋于平缓,但其市值却在向着三万亿美元的关口发起冲击。</p><p>这种财务数据与股价表现的背离,并非市场的非理性繁荣,而是对特斯拉商业模式重估的必然结果。</p><p>市场不再将特斯拉视为一家售卖钢铁与电池的制造商,而是将其重新定义为一家提供算力与劳动力的AI服务商。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201302709v201kq90v6k7ztk\"/><p>2026年成为了一个明确的分水岭,标志着埃隆·马斯克正式开始剥离汽车公司这层由于历史原因被迫穿上的旧皮囊,转向以完全自动驾驶和人形机器人为核心的利润新纪元。</p><p>在商业进化史上,很少有企业能够成功地完成从硬件制造向软件服务的基因突变,而2026年的特斯拉正处于这一变异的关键节点。</p><p>长期以来,外界对特斯拉的估值逻辑始终锚定在汽车销量、毛利率以及产能爬坡这些传统制造业指标上。</p><p>然而随着完全自动驾驶系统在全球范围内的规模化推送,以及人形机器人Optimus进入实质性的工厂验证阶段,特斯拉的<span>资产负债表</span>正在发生质的改变。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201305361v201fyqi46kxy6x\"/><p>如果说2025年之前特斯拉靠的是卖一辆车赚一笔钱的硬件一次性交易,那么从2026年开始,特斯拉将转向靠软件订阅和劳动力租赁赚取全生命周期利润的复利模式。</p><p>传统汽车制造业是典型的重<span>资产</span>、低<span>毛利</span>、强周期行业,其市盈率通常被锁定在个位数。</p><p>即便特斯拉拥有业内最高的单车利润率,只要它还被视为一家卖车的公司,其市值的想象空间就必然受到全球汽车年销量的物理天花板限制。</p><p>随着Cybercab自动驾驶出租车业务的落地,特斯拉正在构建一种类似于电力公司或电信运营商的公用事业模型。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201306390v201mi2w1ocwelp\"/><p>在这种模型下,车辆不再是卖给消费者的耐用消费品,而是特斯拉分布式算力网络中的终端节点。</p><p>每一辆搭载完全自动驾驶系统的特斯拉汽车,实际上都是一个在物理世界<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中移动</a>的数据采集与推理单元。</p><p>投资者开始意识到,特斯拉未来的核心收入将不再来自车辆销售本身,而是来自这些终端所产生的出行服务费和软件订阅费。</p><p>这种收入流具有高频、高毛利且抗周期的软件即服务特征,理应享受科技股甚至AI基础设施股的高估值溢价。</p><p>冲击三万亿美元市值的底气,正源于这种估值模型的底层切换。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201313276v2019d1u97p50nm\"/><p>在2026年,FSD完全自动驾驶系统及其后续版本的成熟,使得自动驾驶从技术验证走向了商业闭环。</p><p>对于特斯拉而言,剥离汽车公司皮囊的第一步,就是改变车辆的所有权结构与使用权逻辑。</p><p>在旧模式下,特斯拉将车卖给用户,交易即终止。</p><p>而在新模式下,特斯拉通过Robotaxi网络保留了车辆的运营权。</p><p>这种转变带来的经济效益是惊人的。私家车的平均利用率仅为百分之五左右,绝大部分时间处于闲置贬值状态。</p><p>而加入Robotaxi网络的车辆利用率可提升至百分之五十以上。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201322375v201oj0nxrfd0ud\"/><p>这意味着特斯拉制造的同一台硬件设备,其创造的现金流将翻倍增长。</p><p>此时特斯拉的角色从汽车制造商转变为全球最大的出行运力提供商。</p><p>汽车只是承载算力和算法的物理容器,真正的商品是安全、高效的点对点位移服务。</p><p>这种商业模式的护城河不再是冲压机和压铸机,而是由数千万辆车组成的庞大神经网络以及由此产生的海量路况数据。</p><p>这解释了为什么马斯克愿意在达沃斯为了监管绿灯而妥协,因为一旦合规闸门打开,特斯拉将瞬间掌握全球出行市场的定价权。</p><p>如果说自动驾驶是特斯拉剥离汽车标签的左膀,那么人形机器人Optimus则是其右臂,且后者的潜在市场规模远超前者。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201323594v201az5ldcycp1w\"/><p>2026年被视为具身智能的商业化元年,Optimus开始小规模进入特斯拉自家的超级工厂,替代人类工人执行搬运、分拣等重复性劳动。</p><p>这一动作标志着特斯拉的商业触角延伸到了劳动力市场。</p><p>在传统的财务报表中,人力是成本项。但在特斯拉的未来版图中,由Optimus提供的人力变成了收入项。</p><p>特斯拉并不打算直接售卖Optimus,而是倾向于采用劳动力租赁模式。</p><p>这种模式极其恐怖,因为它打破了人口红利消失的增长约束。</p><p>只要有足够的电力和算力,特斯拉就可以无限复制劳动力。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201326846v201autyssae7op\"/><p>从产业分析的角度看,Optimus的边际成本随着莱特定律和规模效应将迅速降低,而其替代的人类劳动力成本在发达国家依然高企。</p><p>这种巨大的套利空间,构成了特斯拉未来十年最强劲的增长引擎。</p><p>当特斯拉开始向物流公司、制造工厂甚至家庭出租机器人劳动力时,它就不再是一家汽车公司,而是一家通用的实体劳动力供应商。</p><p>在剥离旧皮囊的同时,特斯拉正在生长出新的皮肤,即能源与算力。</p><p>为了支撑庞大的自动驾驶车队和机器人军团,特斯拉在德克萨斯州和纽约建设的Dojo超级计算机集群以及Colossus算力中心,已经使其成为全球顶级的AI算力公司。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201332659v201mlxtgsx4t70\"/><p>与此同时,为了驱动这些算力和电动终端,特斯拉的储能业务Megapack在2026年的增速已经超过了汽车业务。</p><p>能源生成、存储与消耗的闭环,使得特斯拉实际上成为了AI时代的能源基础设施巨头。</p><p>这种能源加AI的双轮驱动,使得特斯拉的业务版图更接近于以前的通用电气与现在的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的结合体。</p><p>2026年注定是特斯拉发展史上的一个断裂点。</p><p>在这个节点上,我们清晰地看到了新旧动能的暴力切换。</p><p>依靠销售Model 3和Model Y获取硬件利润的时代虽然尚未结束,但已不再是公司战略的重心。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260126201333455v201wap2pvn6vf8\"/><p>马斯克通过激进的资本开支和技术豪赌,正在强行将特斯拉拽离制造业的泥潭。</p><p>对于投资者和产业观察者而言,继续用汽车行业的交付量、库存周转率来衡量特斯拉已经显得刻舟求剑。</p><p>特斯拉正在变成一个巨大的AI物理容器制造商和运营商。</p><p>它生产车,但不靠卖车赚钱。</p><p>它制造机器人,意在垄断劳动力供给。</p><p>剥离汽车公司的皮囊,过程或许痛苦且充满争议,但这正是特斯拉迈向十万亿市值俱乐部的唯一门票。</p><p>未来的特斯拉,将是一个披着硬件外衣的通用人工智能实体,而2026年,正是这一终极形态的破茧时刻。</p><p>(完)</p><p>文章关键词: 特斯拉转型,FSD商业化,Optimus机器人,自动驾驶出租车,SaaS模式,估值重构,劳动力租赁,AI算力,去汽车化,商业模式创新</p><p>想看更多硬核商业评论,可以点个关注。下一篇更精彩。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>卖车已是过去式:2026年,特斯拉正式开始剥离“汽车公司”的皮囊</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n卖车已是过去式:2026年,特斯拉正式开始剥离“汽车公司”的皮囊\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-26 18:01 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260126201400953e62e7&s=b><strong>硅基商业笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2026年第一季度的财报分析会上,华尔街的分析师们敏锐地捕捉到了一个信号,尽管特斯拉的汽车交付量增长曲线趋于平缓,但其市值却在向着三万亿美元的关口发起冲击。这种财务数据与股价表现的背离,并非市场的非理性繁荣,而是对特斯拉商业模式重估的必然结果。市场不再将特斯拉视为一家售卖钢铁与电池的制造商,而是将其重新定义为一家提供算力与劳动力的AI服务商。2026年成为了一个明确的分水岭,标志着埃隆·马斯克...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260126201400953e62e7&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260126201400953e62e7&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2606263217","content_text":"在2026年第一季度的财报分析会上,华尔街的分析师们敏锐地捕捉到了一个信号,尽管特斯拉的汽车交付量增长曲线趋于平缓,但其市值却在向着三万亿美元的关口发起冲击。这种财务数据与股价表现的背离,并非市场的非理性繁荣,而是对特斯拉商业模式重估的必然结果。市场不再将特斯拉视为一家售卖钢铁与电池的制造商,而是将其重新定义为一家提供算力与劳动力的AI服务商。2026年成为了一个明确的分水岭,标志着埃隆·马斯克正式开始剥离汽车公司这层由于历史原因被迫穿上的旧皮囊,转向以完全自动驾驶和人形机器人为核心的利润新纪元。在商业进化史上,很少有企业能够成功地完成从硬件制造向软件服务的基因突变,而2026年的特斯拉正处于这一变异的关键节点。长期以来,外界对特斯拉的估值逻辑始终锚定在汽车销量、毛利率以及产能爬坡这些传统制造业指标上。然而随着完全自动驾驶系统在全球范围内的规模化推送,以及人形机器人Optimus进入实质性的工厂验证阶段,特斯拉的资产负债表正在发生质的改变。如果说2025年之前特斯拉靠的是卖一辆车赚一笔钱的硬件一次性交易,那么从2026年开始,特斯拉将转向靠软件订阅和劳动力租赁赚取全生命周期利润的复利模式。传统汽车制造业是典型的重资产、低毛利、强周期行业,其市盈率通常被锁定在个位数。即便特斯拉拥有业内最高的单车利润率,只要它还被视为一家卖车的公司,其市值的想象空间就必然受到全球汽车年销量的物理天花板限制。随着Cybercab自动驾驶出租车业务的落地,特斯拉正在构建一种类似于电力公司或电信运营商的公用事业模型。在这种模型下,车辆不再是卖给消费者的耐用消费品,而是特斯拉分布式算力网络中的终端节点。每一辆搭载完全自动驾驶系统的特斯拉汽车,实际上都是一个在物理世界中移动的数据采集与推理单元。投资者开始意识到,特斯拉未来的核心收入将不再来自车辆销售本身,而是来自这些终端所产生的出行服务费和软件订阅费。这种收入流具有高频、高毛利且抗周期的软件即服务特征,理应享受科技股甚至AI基础设施股的高估值溢价。冲击三万亿美元市值的底气,正源于这种估值模型的底层切换。在2026年,FSD完全自动驾驶系统及其后续版本的成熟,使得自动驾驶从技术验证走向了商业闭环。对于特斯拉而言,剥离汽车公司皮囊的第一步,就是改变车辆的所有权结构与使用权逻辑。在旧模式下,特斯拉将车卖给用户,交易即终止。而在新模式下,特斯拉通过Robotaxi网络保留了车辆的运营权。这种转变带来的经济效益是惊人的。私家车的平均利用率仅为百分之五左右,绝大部分时间处于闲置贬值状态。而加入Robotaxi网络的车辆利用率可提升至百分之五十以上。这意味着特斯拉制造的同一台硬件设备,其创造的现金流将翻倍增长。此时特斯拉的角色从汽车制造商转变为全球最大的出行运力提供商。汽车只是承载算力和算法的物理容器,真正的商品是安全、高效的点对点位移服务。这种商业模式的护城河不再是冲压机和压铸机,而是由数千万辆车组成的庞大神经网络以及由此产生的海量路况数据。这解释了为什么马斯克愿意在达沃斯为了监管绿灯而妥协,因为一旦合规闸门打开,特斯拉将瞬间掌握全球出行市场的定价权。如果说自动驾驶是特斯拉剥离汽车标签的左膀,那么人形机器人Optimus则是其右臂,且后者的潜在市场规模远超前者。2026年被视为具身智能的商业化元年,Optimus开始小规模进入特斯拉自家的超级工厂,替代人类工人执行搬运、分拣等重复性劳动。这一动作标志着特斯拉的商业触角延伸到了劳动力市场。在传统的财务报表中,人力是成本项。但在特斯拉的未来版图中,由Optimus提供的人力变成了收入项。特斯拉并不打算直接售卖Optimus,而是倾向于采用劳动力租赁模式。这种模式极其恐怖,因为它打破了人口红利消失的增长约束。只要有足够的电力和算力,特斯拉就可以无限复制劳动力。从产业分析的角度看,Optimus的边际成本随着莱特定律和规模效应将迅速降低,而其替代的人类劳动力成本在发达国家依然高企。这种巨大的套利空间,构成了特斯拉未来十年最强劲的增长引擎。当特斯拉开始向物流公司、制造工厂甚至家庭出租机器人劳动力时,它就不再是一家汽车公司,而是一家通用的实体劳动力供应商。在剥离旧皮囊的同时,特斯拉正在生长出新的皮肤,即能源与算力。为了支撑庞大的自动驾驶车队和机器人军团,特斯拉在德克萨斯州和纽约建设的Dojo超级计算机集群以及Colossus算力中心,已经使其成为全球顶级的AI算力公司。与此同时,为了驱动这些算力和电动终端,特斯拉的储能业务Megapack在2026年的增速已经超过了汽车业务。能源生成、存储与消耗的闭环,使得特斯拉实际上成为了AI时代的能源基础设施巨头。这种能源加AI的双轮驱动,使得特斯拉的业务版图更接近于以前的通用电气与现在的英伟达的结合体。2026年注定是特斯拉发展史上的一个断裂点。在这个节点上,我们清晰地看到了新旧动能的暴力切换。依靠销售Model 3和Model Y获取硬件利润的时代虽然尚未结束,但已不再是公司战略的重心。马斯克通过激进的资本开支和技术豪赌,正在强行将特斯拉拽离制造业的泥潭。对于投资者和产业观察者而言,继续用汽车行业的交付量、库存周转率来衡量特斯拉已经显得刻舟求剑。特斯拉正在变成一个巨大的AI物理容器制造商和运营商。它生产车,但不靠卖车赚钱。它制造机器人,意在垄断劳动力供给。剥离汽车公司的皮囊,过程或许痛苦且充满争议,但这正是特斯拉迈向十万亿市值俱乐部的唯一门票。未来的特斯拉,将是一个披着硬件外衣的通用人工智能实体,而2026年,正是这一终极形态的破茧时刻。(完)文章关键词: 特斯拉转型,FSD商业化,Optimus机器人,自动驾驶出租车,SaaS模式,估值重构,劳动力租赁,AI算力,去汽车化,商业模式创新想看更多硬核商业评论,可以点个关注。下一篇更精彩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLI":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":525992377102680,"gmtCreate":1769441073920,"gmtModify":1769441215292,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"有马圣在特斯拉不会平庸,因为畜牧业很成功[开心] 扁的说圆的各位信徒也会说马圣是对的,就是这么成功","listText":"有马圣在特斯拉不会平庸,因为畜牧业很成功[开心] 扁的说圆的各位信徒也会说马圣是对的,就是这么成功","text":"有马圣在特斯拉不会平庸,因为畜牧业很成功[开心] 扁的说圆的各位信徒也会说马圣是对的,就是这么成功","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525992377102680","repostId":"2606212832","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606212832","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769427420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606212832?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-26 19:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉的最大风险:归于平庸","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606212832","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值,特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战,或许并非来自某个对手,而是一种更难启齿的状态:平庸感。 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文,释放了又一个隐晦的信号:特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD,此后仅提供按月订阅服务。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息,还是此起彼伏的竞争警报,似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战,或许并非来自某个对手,而是一种更难启齿的状态:平庸感。</p>\n<p> 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车(Cox Automotive)的最新数据显示,即便特斯拉推出了简配版Model 3和Model Y车型,试图在电动车税收抵免退坡后重振需求,但2025年第四季度在美国市场的销量仍下滑15%。</p>\n<p> 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文,释放了又一个隐晦的信号:特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD,此后仅提供按月订阅服务。</p>\n<p> FSD即完全自动驾驶(监管版),本质上仍是一套高级驾驶辅助系统,并不具备完全自主驾驶能力。多年来,它一直以选装升级的形式出售,目前一次性购买价格为8000美元。自2021年起,特斯拉推出订阅方案,当前月费为99美元。</p>\n<p> 特斯拉的一举一动总能引发热议,这次也不例外,究其根源还是马斯克过往的种种豪言。2020年,他曾放话称,随着软件持续迭代优化,这套当时还未标注“监管版”的FSD选装包,价值将水涨船高,最终有望突破10万美元大关。然而,现实世界中的科技产品,尤其是依赖芯片、被装进四个轮子里的技术,价值几乎总是沿着相反方向演进,而且往往速度不慢。理论上,更好的软件或许能改变这一轨迹,但特斯拉自身的行动显然并未印证这一点。</p>\n<p> FSD的定价并非一成不变:2019年时售价一度低至5000美元,随后几经上调,最高涨到1.5万美元。订阅模式推出后,价格一路回落至如今水平。如今,特斯拉索性取消了买断选项,尽管这一方式相当于提前锁定近十年的订阅收入。</p>\n<p> 这并不像一项会不断升值的资产,更像一项普通服务:价格随技术能力、竞争格局与市场环境而浮动。</p>\n<p> 这一转向的背景,是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上掀起的涟漪。这家芯片巨头推出了开源人工智能模型Alpamayo,用于开发自动驾驶汽车,并将其与英伟达现有的软硬件工具整合,为车企提供一套“即装即用”的高级驾驶辅助系统解决方案,未来甚至有望拓展至完全自动驾驶。</p>\n<p> 马斯克回应称,英伟达不过是在复制特斯拉的路线。从某种程度上来说,确实如此。英伟达采用的机器学习自动驾驶方案与特斯拉思路相近,同样需要花费漫长时间,在真实道路环境中反复验证。</p>\n<p> 但更深层的问题在于,一家并不打算造车的科技公司,正试图打造自动驾驶领域的“安卓系统”,向所有愿意付费的车企开放。这为传统车企提供了一条低资本投入的捷径,却也意味着,一个持续增长的车辆价值来源将不可避免地外溢给一家市值已超过全球汽车产业总和的供应商。对底特律而言,这是一把双刃剑,尤其是在其价值体系仍高度依赖内燃机的背景下。</p>\n<p> 对特斯拉而言,情况可能更糟。随着电动车业务明显受挫,支撑其估值的,越来越多来自市场对其在自动驾驶领域建立统治地位的预期。特斯拉的股票,本质上是一种叙事。正如自动驾驶专家、风投机构New Industry Management联合创始人亚历克斯·罗伊(Alex Roy)所言,特斯拉拥有强大的“叙事主导权”。马斯克塑造公众对汽车科技认知的能力之强,甚至延伸到对相关术语本身的定义,以至于不断逼近的竞争,也未能撼动特斯拉200倍以上的市盈率。</p>\n<p> 但竞争往往伴随着另一种更隐秘的力量:大宗商品化。近一年前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>已在中国市场将高级驾驶辅助系统列为多数车型的标配;如今英伟达的入局,又为汽车功能“从高价噱头沦为标配”的老路添上了新注脚。别忘了,作为FSD前身的Autopilot,曾经也是售价数千美元的选装项,如今早已成为标配。在经历多轮降价后,FSD转而完全采用可随时取消的订阅模式,本身就是一种信号。</p>\n<p> 如果特斯拉的技术优势无可匹敌,这种变化或许不足为惧。但正如我此前所写,特斯拉对其所谓“定义行业、引领全球”的核心技术,一直披露有限,令人费解。</p>\n<p> 更何况,距离特斯拉在奥斯汀推出FSD自动驾驶出租车一周年的节点仅剩五个月。必须坦率地说,与马斯克此前的承诺相比,那次“上线”近乎滑稽,而公司最近又一次错过了移除前排安全驾驶员的时间节点。</p>\n<p> 如果这种不温不火的节奏持续到2026年6月,那些长期看多特斯拉的投资者,是否会开始对“特斯拉真正引领自动驾驶”的叙事产生动摇?罗伊指出,只要不发生灾难性事故,特斯拉仍有空间展示进展、维系叙事,比如在保留安全员的情况下,将服务扩展至更多城市。考虑到特斯拉近乎宗教般的号召力,这或许已足以托住股价。马斯克当然也可以进一步加码“机器人叙事”,只是那条赛道上,同样已不乏竞争者。</p>\n<p> 但除了信徒之外,外界已然看清:特斯拉在无人驾驶领域许下的种种承诺,与其实际进展相去甚远;与此同时,市场竞争日益激烈,行业“常态化”的苗头也已显现。既然特斯拉已在电动车领域失去无可争议的领导地位和定价权,又凭什么假定,它能在新领域免疫于同样的规律?</p>\n<p> 企业可以在某个(任何)领域大获成功,但当竞争加剧、光环褪色时,它仍可能辜负市场的炽热期望。评估特斯拉的自动驾驶业务时,决定性的不只是市场份额假设,也在于价格与定价能力。在如此高估值的状态下,最大的风险或许并非轰然坠落,而是缓慢而熟悉地,滑向平庸。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:刘明亮 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉的最大风险:归于平庸</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉的最大风险:归于平庸\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-26 19:37 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值,特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息,还是此起彼伏的竞争警报,似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战,或许并非来自某个对手,而是一种更难启齿的状态:平庸感。\n 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年,比亚迪在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车(Cox Automotive)的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","BK4099":"汽车制造商","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TSLA":"特斯拉","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED 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(H2-HKD) INC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4516":"特朗普概念","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-26/doc-inhirukv8967185.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2606212832","content_text":"一家车企能坐拥1.5万亿美元市值,特斯拉的地位可谓无人能及。无论是负面消息,还是此起彼伏的竞争警报,似乎都难以真正撼动其股价。但特斯拉面临的更隐蔽挑战,或许并非来自某个对手,而是一种更难启齿的状态:平庸感。\n 核心电动汽车业务的颓势是特斯拉光环褪色最直观的体现。特斯拉电动汽车销量已连续两年下滑。2025年,比亚迪在纯电动汽车销量上完成反超。行业分析机构考克斯汽车(Cox Automotive)的最新数据显示,即便特斯拉推出了简配版Model 3和Model Y车型,试图在电动车税收抵免退坡后重振需求,但2025年第四季度在美国市场的销量仍下滑15%。\n 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克近日在社交平台X上发文,释放了又一个隐晦的信号:特斯拉将于2月14日后停止出售FSD,此后仅提供按月订阅服务。\n FSD即完全自动驾驶(监管版),本质上仍是一套高级驾驶辅助系统,并不具备完全自主驾驶能力。多年来,它一直以选装升级的形式出售,目前一次性购买价格为8000美元。自2021年起,特斯拉推出订阅方案,当前月费为99美元。\n 特斯拉的一举一动总能引发热议,这次也不例外,究其根源还是马斯克过往的种种豪言。2020年,他曾放话称,随着软件持续迭代优化,这套当时还未标注“监管版”的FSD选装包,价值将水涨船高,最终有望突破10万美元大关。然而,现实世界中的科技产品,尤其是依赖芯片、被装进四个轮子里的技术,价值几乎总是沿着相反方向演进,而且往往速度不慢。理论上,更好的软件或许能改变这一轨迹,但特斯拉自身的行动显然并未印证这一点。\n FSD的定价并非一成不变:2019年时售价一度低至5000美元,随后几经上调,最高涨到1.5万美元。订阅模式推出后,价格一路回落至如今水平。如今,特斯拉索性取消了买断选项,尽管这一方式相当于提前锁定近十年的订阅收入。\n 这并不像一项会不断升值的资产,更像一项普通服务:价格随技术能力、竞争格局与市场环境而浮动。\n 这一转向的背景,是英伟达在拉斯维加斯消费电子展上掀起的涟漪。这家芯片巨头推出了开源人工智能模型Alpamayo,用于开发自动驾驶汽车,并将其与英伟达现有的软硬件工具整合,为车企提供一套“即装即用”的高级驾驶辅助系统解决方案,未来甚至有望拓展至完全自动驾驶。\n 马斯克回应称,英伟达不过是在复制特斯拉的路线。从某种程度上来说,确实如此。英伟达采用的机器学习自动驾驶方案与特斯拉思路相近,同样需要花费漫长时间,在真实道路环境中反复验证。\n 但更深层的问题在于,一家并不打算造车的科技公司,正试图打造自动驾驶领域的“安卓系统”,向所有愿意付费的车企开放。这为传统车企提供了一条低资本投入的捷径,却也意味着,一个持续增长的车辆价值来源将不可避免地外溢给一家市值已超过全球汽车产业总和的供应商。对底特律而言,这是一把双刃剑,尤其是在其价值体系仍高度依赖内燃机的背景下。\n 对特斯拉而言,情况可能更糟。随着电动车业务明显受挫,支撑其估值的,越来越多来自市场对其在自动驾驶领域建立统治地位的预期。特斯拉的股票,本质上是一种叙事。正如自动驾驶专家、风投机构New Industry Management联合创始人亚历克斯·罗伊(Alex Roy)所言,特斯拉拥有强大的“叙事主导权”。马斯克塑造公众对汽车科技认知的能力之强,甚至延伸到对相关术语本身的定义,以至于不断逼近的竞争,也未能撼动特斯拉200倍以上的市盈率。\n 但竞争往往伴随着另一种更隐秘的力量:大宗商品化。近一年前,比亚迪已在中国市场将高级驾驶辅助系统列为多数车型的标配;如今英伟达的入局,又为汽车功能“从高价噱头沦为标配”的老路添上了新注脚。别忘了,作为FSD前身的Autopilot,曾经也是售价数千美元的选装项,如今早已成为标配。在经历多轮降价后,FSD转而完全采用可随时取消的订阅模式,本身就是一种信号。\n 如果特斯拉的技术优势无可匹敌,这种变化或许不足为惧。但正如我此前所写,特斯拉对其所谓“定义行业、引领全球”的核心技术,一直披露有限,令人费解。\n 更何况,距离特斯拉在奥斯汀推出FSD自动驾驶出租车一周年的节点仅剩五个月。必须坦率地说,与马斯克此前的承诺相比,那次“上线”近乎滑稽,而公司最近又一次错过了移除前排安全驾驶员的时间节点。\n 如果这种不温不火的节奏持续到2026年6月,那些长期看多特斯拉的投资者,是否会开始对“特斯拉真正引领自动驾驶”的叙事产生动摇?罗伊指出,只要不发生灾难性事故,特斯拉仍有空间展示进展、维系叙事,比如在保留安全员的情况下,将服务扩展至更多城市。考虑到特斯拉近乎宗教般的号召力,这或许已足以托住股价。马斯克当然也可以进一步加码“机器人叙事”,只是那条赛道上,同样已不乏竞争者。\n 但除了信徒之外,外界已然看清:特斯拉在无人驾驶领域许下的种种承诺,与其实际进展相去甚远;与此同时,市场竞争日益激烈,行业“常态化”的苗头也已显现。既然特斯拉已在电动车领域失去无可争议的领导地位和定价权,又凭什么假定,它能在新领域免疫于同样的规律?\n 企业可以在某个(任何)领域大获成功,但当竞争加剧、光环褪色时,它仍可能辜负市场的炽热期望。评估特斯拉的自动驾驶业务时,决定性的不只是市场份额假设,也在于价格与定价能力。在如此高估值的状态下,最大的风险或许并非轰然坠落,而是缓慢而熟悉地,滑向平庸。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:刘明亮","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLP":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":524897440219536,"gmtCreate":1769180906348,"gmtModify":1769180908500,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$ </a> 奔着300去了[笑哭] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$ </a> 奔着300去了[笑哭] ","text":"$博通(AVGO)$ 奔着300去了[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/524897440219536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":525040994972088,"gmtCreate":1769159637219,"gmtModify":1769159639577,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"只能说畜牧业很成功,去年吹下的牛几个实现了<a href=\"\">[开心] </a>","listText":"只能说畜牧业很成功,去年吹下的牛几个实现了<a href=\"\">[开心] </a>","text":"只能说畜牧业很成功,去年吹下的牛几个实现了[开心] ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525040994972088","repostId":"2605414754","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2605414754","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1769119819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2605414754?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-23 06:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克达沃斯秀蓝图:明年公开发售Optimus机器人,今年Robotaxi将在美“非常普及”、AI或超越人类","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2605414754","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"当地时间1月22日周四,马斯克罕见现身达沃斯论坛,与贝莱德CEO芬克展开对话。他透露特斯拉已在工厂中部署部分Optimus机器人执行简单任务,并预计到今年底这些机器人将能处理更复杂的工作。马斯克去年9月初表示,特斯拉约80%的价值将来自他四年前首次提出的机器人项目Optimus。特斯拉目前已在工厂中使用部分Optimus机器人执行基础任务。本周早些时候,马斯克还提醒称,Optimus和特斯拉最新车型Cybercab的初期生产将“极其缓慢”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>马斯克说,如果特斯拉对机器人的可靠性、安全性和功能范围充满信心,到明年底,将启动公开销售,用户可以“基本要求它做几乎任何你想做的事”;已开始在得州奥斯汀提供没有设置车内安全监督员的Robotaxi服务。他预测,到今年底、或最迟明年,AI将变得“比任何人类都聪明”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉CEO马斯克在达沃斯世界经济论坛上勾勒出一幅涵盖人形机器人、自动驾驶、太空探索和人工智能(AI)的宏大蓝图,他预测AI最快将在今年底超越人类智能,而特斯拉的人形机器人Optimus最早将于明年底面向公众销售。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间1月22日周四,马斯克罕见现身达沃斯论坛,与贝莱德CEO芬克展开对话。他透露特斯拉已在工厂中部署部分Optimus机器人执行简单任务,并预计到今年底这些机器人将能处理更复杂的工作。马斯克表示,如果特斯拉对机器人的可靠性、安全性和功能范围充满信心,到明年底,将启动公开销售。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克在谈话中还表示,特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车服务Robotaxi今年有望在美国大规模部署,“到今年年底,这项服务将在美国范围内非常非常普及”,已经开始在得州奥斯汀提供没有设置车内安全监督员的Robotaxi服务。SpaceX希望今年实现星舰火箭的完全可重复使用。他预测,到今年底、或最迟明年,AI将变得“比任何人类都聪明”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克讲话期间,特斯拉股价持续走高,截至收盘,日内涨幅扩大到4%以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c51e9d1c3bc946a09ae260e36624bb37\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉的核心汽车业务因产品线陈旧和美国电动车补贴取消而连续两年交付量下滑,马斯克此次提到的无人驾驶、AI和机器人业务方向被他视为特斯拉的关键重点。马斯克去年9月初表示,特斯拉约80%的价值将来自他四年前首次提出的机器人项目Optimus。</p><h2 id=\"optimus\">Optimus机器人推进时间表明确</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克对Optimus人形机器人的商业化时间表给出了更具体的说法。他表示,对公众销售将在特斯拉确信机器人具备“极高可靠性、极高安全性以及极高功能范围”时启动,届时用户可以“基本要求它做几乎任何你想做的事”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉目前已在工厂中使用部分Optimus机器人执行基础任务。马斯克预测,到2026年底,这些机器人将能够“执行更复杂的任务”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克经常谈论Optimus的潜力,但他此前对生产时间表和目标相对模糊。在2025年1月的财报电话会议上,他曾表示,“非常粗略的猜测”是,特斯拉将在2026年下半年开始向其他公司交付Optimus。本周早些时候,马斯克还提醒称,Optimus和特斯拉最新车型Cybercab的初期生产将“极其缓慢”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克此前曾预测人形机器人最终将在数量上超过人类,数十亿台机器将不仅部署在工厂,还将进入家庭,协助洗碗到照顾孩子等各类工作。</p><h2 id=\"166a7855\">自动驾驶和太空探索进展</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在自动驾驶领域,马斯克宣称这"本质上是一个已解决的问题"。他表示特斯拉的完全自动驾驶软件有时每周更新一次,部分保险公司因其安全记录向使用该技术的客户提供半价保险。特斯拉已在多个城市推出机器人出租车服务,预计今年底将在美国大规模部署,欧洲的有监督完全自动驾驶批准可能在下月获得。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在太空探索方面,马斯克表示SpaceX希望今年通过星舰实现火箭的完全可重复使用。他将星舰描述为"有史以来最大的飞行器",这一突破将使太空进入成本降低100倍,降至每磅100美元以下。SpaceX已展示可以在发射台捕获火箭助推器,但尚未尝试将星舰飞船回收再利用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克还讨论了在未来几年内发射太阳能AI卫星的计划。他指出,太空中的太阳能板效率是地球上的五倍,因为有持续的阳光且无大气干扰。他预测"部署AI成本最低的地方将是太空",这将在两到三年内实现。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">AI发展与能源基建预测</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克对AI发展做出了大胆预测,称AI可能在今年底、或“最迟明年”变得“比任何人类都聪明”。这一预测凸显了他对AI技术快速进步的判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在能源生产方面,马斯克表示,一个100英里见方的太阳能板区域就能为整个美国供电。他透露,SpaceX和特斯拉的团队正分别致力于在约三年内在美国建立每年100吉瓦的太阳能制造产能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克此次现身达沃斯颇为意外,因为此前他曾批评该论坛“无聊”,并抨击世界经济论坛“日益成为人们从未要求也不想要的未经选举的世界政府”。2022年,他曾在社交媒体上发帖称:“世界经济论坛/达沃斯论坛是怎么回事?他们是想当地球的老板吗?”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克在对话中表示,他旗下公司的总体目标是让“文明拥有美好未来的可能性”最大化,并将“意识延伸到地球之外”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克达沃斯秀蓝图:明年公开发售Optimus机器人,今年Robotaxi将在美“非常普及”、AI或超越人类</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克达沃斯秀蓝图:明年公开发售Optimus机器人,今年Robotaxi将在美“非常普及”、AI或超越人类\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-23 06:10 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260123040546a44b16fc&s=b><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>马斯克说,如果特斯拉对机器人的可靠性、安全性和功能范围充满信心,到明年底,将启动公开销售,用户可以“基本要求它做几乎任何你想做的事”;已开始在得州奥斯汀提供没有设置车内安全监督员的Robotaxi服务。他预测,到今年底、或最迟明年,AI将变得“比任何人类都聪明”。特斯拉CEO马斯克在达沃斯世界经济论坛上勾勒出一幅涵盖人形机器人、自动驾驶、太空探索和人工智能(AI)的宏大蓝图,他预测AI最快将在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260123040546a44b16fc&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6a2d85f5e8cd12b5acb8ead395b91e6","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV 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H2-SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260123040546a44b16fc&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2605414754","content_text":"马斯克说,如果特斯拉对机器人的可靠性、安全性和功能范围充满信心,到明年底,将启动公开销售,用户可以“基本要求它做几乎任何你想做的事”;已开始在得州奥斯汀提供没有设置车内安全监督员的Robotaxi服务。他预测,到今年底、或最迟明年,AI将变得“比任何人类都聪明”。特斯拉CEO马斯克在达沃斯世界经济论坛上勾勒出一幅涵盖人形机器人、自动驾驶、太空探索和人工智能(AI)的宏大蓝图,他预测AI最快将在今年底超越人类智能,而特斯拉的人形机器人Optimus最早将于明年底面向公众销售。当地时间1月22日周四,马斯克罕见现身达沃斯论坛,与贝莱德CEO芬克展开对话。他透露特斯拉已在工厂中部署部分Optimus机器人执行简单任务,并预计到今年底这些机器人将能处理更复杂的工作。马斯克表示,如果特斯拉对机器人的可靠性、安全性和功能范围充满信心,到明年底,将启动公开销售。马斯克在谈话中还表示,特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车服务Robotaxi今年有望在美国大规模部署,“到今年年底,这项服务将在美国范围内非常非常普及”,已经开始在得州奥斯汀提供没有设置车内安全监督员的Robotaxi服务。SpaceX希望今年实现星舰火箭的完全可重复使用。他预测,到今年底、或最迟明年,AI将变得“比任何人类都聪明”。马斯克讲话期间,特斯拉股价持续走高,截至收盘,日内涨幅扩大到4%以上。特斯拉的核心汽车业务因产品线陈旧和美国电动车补贴取消而连续两年交付量下滑,马斯克此次提到的无人驾驶、AI和机器人业务方向被他视为特斯拉的关键重点。马斯克去年9月初表示,特斯拉约80%的价值将来自他四年前首次提出的机器人项目Optimus。Optimus机器人推进时间表明确马斯克对Optimus人形机器人的商业化时间表给出了更具体的说法。他表示,对公众销售将在特斯拉确信机器人具备“极高可靠性、极高安全性以及极高功能范围”时启动,届时用户可以“基本要求它做几乎任何你想做的事”。特斯拉目前已在工厂中使用部分Optimus机器人执行基础任务。马斯克预测,到2026年底,这些机器人将能够“执行更复杂的任务”。尽管马斯克经常谈论Optimus的潜力,但他此前对生产时间表和目标相对模糊。在2025年1月的财报电话会议上,他曾表示,“非常粗略的猜测”是,特斯拉将在2026年下半年开始向其他公司交付Optimus。本周早些时候,马斯克还提醒称,Optimus和特斯拉最新车型Cybercab的初期生产将“极其缓慢”。马斯克此前曾预测人形机器人最终将在数量上超过人类,数十亿台机器将不仅部署在工厂,还将进入家庭,协助洗碗到照顾孩子等各类工作。自动驾驶和太空探索进展在自动驾驶领域,马斯克宣称这\"本质上是一个已解决的问题\"。他表示特斯拉的完全自动驾驶软件有时每周更新一次,部分保险公司因其安全记录向使用该技术的客户提供半价保险。特斯拉已在多个城市推出机器人出租车服务,预计今年底将在美国大规模部署,欧洲的有监督完全自动驾驶批准可能在下月获得。在太空探索方面,马斯克表示SpaceX希望今年通过星舰实现火箭的完全可重复使用。他将星舰描述为\"有史以来最大的飞行器\",这一突破将使太空进入成本降低100倍,降至每磅100美元以下。SpaceX已展示可以在发射台捕获火箭助推器,但尚未尝试将星舰飞船回收再利用。马斯克还讨论了在未来几年内发射太阳能AI卫星的计划。他指出,太空中的太阳能板效率是地球上的五倍,因为有持续的阳光且无大气干扰。他预测\"部署AI成本最低的地方将是太空\",这将在两到三年内实现。AI发展与能源基建预测马斯克对AI发展做出了大胆预测,称AI可能在今年底、或“最迟明年”变得“比任何人类都聪明”。这一预测凸显了他对AI技术快速进步的判断。在能源生产方面,马斯克表示,一个100英里见方的太阳能板区域就能为整个美国供电。他透露,SpaceX和特斯拉的团队正分别致力于在约三年内在美国建立每年100吉瓦的太阳能制造产能。马斯克此次现身达沃斯颇为意外,因为此前他曾批评该论坛“无聊”,并抨击世界经济论坛“日益成为人们从未要求也不想要的未经选举的世界政府”。2022年,他曾在社交媒体上发帖称:“世界经济论坛/达沃斯论坛是怎么回事?他们是想当地球的老板吗?”马斯克在对话中表示,他旗下公司的总体目标是让“文明拥有美好未来的可能性”最大化,并将“意识延伸到地球之外”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":524880652911136,"gmtCreate":1769115140404,"gmtModify":1769115142896,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心] 还没成功量产的东西就开始画饼上了","listText":"[开心] 还没成功量产的东西就开始画饼上了","text":"[开心] 还没成功量产的东西就开始画饼上了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/524880652911136","repostId":"2605152684","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2605152684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769101560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2605152684?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-23 01:06","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"直击达沃斯|马斯克:将在年底或明年向公众销售人形机器人","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2605152684","media":"新浪财经","summary":" 2026年1月22日,在世界经济论坛年会期间,马斯克在公开对话中,分享了对人形机器人、人工智能算力、能源供给以及太空基础设施等话题的看法和时间表。 在谈及人形机器人时,马斯克给出了相对明确的时间预期。他表示,特斯拉计划在2026年年底,或最迟在2027年,向公众出售人形机器人 Optimus,“会比汽车更大的市场。”。 在应用层面,马斯克提到,人形机器人可能在老龄化社会背景下发挥一定作用。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 专题:世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/57/w550h307/20260123/c111-5f11f4aa7736832f1c095971989d4c74.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 新浪财经 康路 发自瑞士达沃斯</p>\n<p> 2026年1月22日,在世界经济论坛年会(World Economic Forum)期间,马斯克在公开对话中,分享了对人形机器人、人工智能算力、能源供给以及太空基础设施等话题的看法和时间表。</p>\n<p> 在谈及人形机器人时,马斯克给出了相对明确的时间预期。他表示,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>计划在2026年年底,或最迟在2027年,向公众出售人形机器人 Optimus,“会比汽车更大的市场。”。据其介绍,今年内,人形机器人预计将开始处理更加复杂的任务,不再局限于当前较为简单、重复的工作内容。</p>\n<p> 在应用层面,马斯克提到,人形机器人可能在老龄化社会背景下发挥一定作用。他指出,许多国家正面临人口老龄化加速、照护成本上升以及劳动力不足等问题,而具备一定自主能力的机器人,或可在老人照护、家庭辅助等场景中提供支持。</p>\n<p> 在人工智能相关讨论中,马斯克将关注重点放在算力扩张所面临的基础条件上。他表示,AI系统大规模部署的限制因素,并非芯片,而更多来自电力供给能力,“我们很快就会进入这样一个阶段:AI 芯片的生产速度,超过我们能激活它们需要的电力增长速度。目前全球电力上线速度只有每年 3–4%,而 AI 芯片产能是指数级增长的。“</p>\n<p> 在谈及太空与能源的结合时,马斯克提出,在太空部署以光伏发电为支撑的AI数据中心,“在未来 2–3 年内,最低成本的 AI 部署目的地将是太空。”。他提到,相较于地面环境,太空不存在昼夜变化、天气干扰和大气衰减,这些因素可能在一定程度上提升光伏系统的发电效率。同时,太空环境在散热设计上也具有不同于地面的工程条件,这使得部分高能耗系统在理论上存在新的部署可能性。</p>\n<p> 马斯克同时指出,这类设想建立在多个前提之上,包括发射成本、系统可靠性以及相关工程能力的成熟度。他并未将其描述为短期内必然实现的结果,而是作为一种可能的发展方向提出。</p>\n<p> 上述关于太空算力和能源的讨论,很大程度上依赖于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>运输成本的变化。对此,马斯克表示,SpaceX 当前的重要技术目标之一,是验证星舰(Starship)完整的可重复使用性。他回顾称,现有火箭系统通常只能实现部分回收,而完全可重复使用的运载工具在历史上尚未实现。如果这一目标能够实现,进入太空的边际成本有望显著下降,从而改变太空基础设施建设的经济条件。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:陈钰嘉 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>直击达沃斯|马斯克:将在年底或明年向公众销售人形机器人</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n直击达沃斯|马斯克:将在年底或明年向公众销售人形机器人\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-23 01:06 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-23/doc-inhifeqp5498914.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>专题:世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯\n\n 新浪财经 康路 发自瑞士达沃斯\n 2026年1月22日,在世界经济论坛年会(World Economic Forum)期间,马斯克在公开对话中,分享了对人形机器人、人工智能算力、能源供给以及太空基础设施等话题的看法和时间表。\n 在谈及人形机器人时,马斯克给出了相对明确的时间预期。他表示,特斯拉计划在2026年年底,或最迟在2027年,向公众出售...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-23/doc-inhifeqp5498914.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND 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Optimus,“会比汽车更大的市场。”。据其介绍,今年内,人形机器人预计将开始处理更加复杂的任务,不再局限于当前较为简单、重复的工作内容。\n 在应用层面,马斯克提到,人形机器人可能在老龄化社会背景下发挥一定作用。他指出,许多国家正面临人口老龄化加速、照护成本上升以及劳动力不足等问题,而具备一定自主能力的机器人,或可在老人照护、家庭辅助等场景中提供支持。\n 在人工智能相关讨论中,马斯克将关注重点放在算力扩张所面临的基础条件上。他表示,AI系统大规模部署的限制因素,并非芯片,而更多来自电力供给能力,“我们很快就会进入这样一个阶段:AI 芯片的生产速度,超过我们能激活它们需要的电力增长速度。目前全球电力上线速度只有每年 3–4%,而 AI 芯片产能是指数级增长的。“\n 在谈及太空与能源的结合时,马斯克提出,在太空部署以光伏发电为支撑的AI数据中心,“在未来 2–3 年内,最低成本的 AI 部署目的地将是太空。”。他提到,相较于地面环境,太空不存在昼夜变化、天气干扰和大气衰减,这些因素可能在一定程度上提升光伏系统的发电效率。同时,太空环境在散热设计上也具有不同于地面的工程条件,这使得部分高能耗系统在理论上存在新的部署可能性。\n 马斯克同时指出,这类设想建立在多个前提之上,包括发射成本、系统可靠性以及相关工程能力的成熟度。他并未将其描述为短期内必然实现的结果,而是作为一种可能的发展方向提出。\n 上述关于太空算力和能源的讨论,很大程度上依赖于航天运输成本的变化。对此,马斯克表示,SpaceX 当前的重要技术目标之一,是验证星舰(Starship)完整的可重复使用性。他回顾称,现有火箭系统通常只能实现部分回收,而完全可重复使用的运载工具在历史上尚未实现。如果这一目标能够实现,进入太空的边际成本有望显著下降,从而改变太空基础设施建设的经济条件。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:陈钰嘉","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLS":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLA":1.86,"TSLR":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"UFO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521690744886456,"gmtCreate":1768401946998,"gmtModify":1768401949447,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"关于这个问题就想想第一批支持马圣的老车主吧,因为硬件问题用不了最新版本的fsd现在都还不知道何去何从[开心] [开心] [开心] ","listText":"关于这个问题就想想第一批支持马圣的老车主吧,因为硬件问题用不了最新版本的fsd现在都还不知道何去何从[开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"关于这个问题就想想第一批支持马圣的老车主吧,因为硬件问题用不了最新版本的fsd现在都还不知道何去何从[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521690744886456","repostId":"1118388234","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118388234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1768383418,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118388234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-14 17:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉FSD大转向:从“买断”全面改为订阅,拟于2月14日后生效","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118388234","media":"智通财经","summary":"该服务目前月度费用为99美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>宣布将彻底改变其高级驾驶辅助系统“全自动驾驶”(FSD)的销售模式,全面转向月度订阅服务。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上公布了这一转变,计划于2月14日后生效。马斯克未具体说明决策原因,该服务目前月度费用为99美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此举将取消FSD高达约8000美元的一次性买断费用,大幅降低用户体验该技术的初始门槛。尽管命名为“全自动驾驶”,该技术目前仍需驾驶员持续监控并随时准备接管。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在面临销售增长乏力的背景下,特斯拉正将其战略重心转向以科技为核心的增长点,如FSD、无人驾驶出租车和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>业务。去年,特斯拉已将全球最大电动汽车制造商的头衔让位于中国的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,值得注意的是,虽然市场对于特斯拉估值与基本面前景的展望已经全面转向基于特斯拉独家AI超算体系打造的FSD全自动驾驶、Robotaxi(完全无人自动驾驶出租车),以及名为“擎天柱”的特斯拉AI人形机器人,特斯拉电动车销量与汽车业务基本面并未被削弱到无足轻重,它仍是当前现金流与资产负债表的支柱,也是FSD数据闭环与车队规模的基础(Robotaxi最终也要落到可规模化的车辆产能与运营)。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉FSD大转向:从“买断”全面改为订阅,拟于2月14日后生效</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉FSD大转向:从“买断”全面改为订阅,拟于2月14日后生效\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-14 17:36 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1392776.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉宣布将彻底改变其高级驾驶辅助系统“全自动驾驶”(FSD)的销售模式,全面转向月度订阅服务。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上公布了这一转变,计划于2月14日后生效。马斯克未具体说明决策原因,该服务目前月度费用为99美元。此举将取消FSD高达约8000美元的一次性买断费用,大幅降低用户体验该技术的初始门槛。尽管命名为“全自动驾驶”,该技术目前仍需驾驶员持续监控并随时准备接管。在面临销售...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1392776.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d695ec0cc530efc680a696604e078f14","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1392776.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1118388234","content_text":"特斯拉宣布将彻底改变其高级驾驶辅助系统“全自动驾驶”(FSD)的销售模式,全面转向月度订阅服务。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上公布了这一转变,计划于2月14日后生效。马斯克未具体说明决策原因,该服务目前月度费用为99美元。此举将取消FSD高达约8000美元的一次性买断费用,大幅降低用户体验该技术的初始门槛。尽管命名为“全自动驾驶”,该技术目前仍需驾驶员持续监控并随时准备接管。在面临销售增长乏力的背景下,特斯拉正将其战略重心转向以科技为核心的增长点,如FSD、无人驾驶出租车和机器人业务。去年,特斯拉已将全球最大电动汽车制造商的头衔让位于中国的比亚迪。不过,值得注意的是,虽然市场对于特斯拉估值与基本面前景的展望已经全面转向基于特斯拉独家AI超算体系打造的FSD全自动驾驶、Robotaxi(完全无人自动驾驶出租车),以及名为“擎天柱”的特斯拉AI人形机器人,特斯拉电动车销量与汽车业务基本面并未被削弱到无足轻重,它仍是当前现金流与资产负债表的支柱,也是FSD数据闭环与车队规模的基础(Robotaxi最终也要落到可规模化的车辆产能与运营)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520987137995888,"gmtCreate":1768222831088,"gmtModify":1768222834861,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"rivian没有马圣的畜牧业肯定搞不过特斯拉。","listText":"rivian没有马圣的畜牧业肯定搞不过特斯拉。","text":"rivian没有马圣的畜牧业肯定搞不过特斯拉。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520987137995888","repostId":"1132794313","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132794313","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1768197021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132794313?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-12 13:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"观点 | 为何当下押注 Rivian,比特斯拉更具吸引力?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132794313","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"消费者报告在去年 12 月发布的最新年度车主调查中,将 Rivian 评为车主满意度最高的汽车品牌。调查显示,85% 的 Rivian 车主表示愿意再次购买该品牌汽车。绍贾伊对 R2 的前景持高度乐观态度,认为其需求将超过 Rivian 的产能。这与 Rivian 当前主打的产品定位高度重合,或暗示特斯拉正在失去部分美国高端消费者。值得注意的是,截至 2025 年 9 月的季度,是 Rivian 上市以来仅有的第三个实现毛利为正的季度。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>随着埃隆·马斯克不断将特斯拉的重心从电动车转向人形机器人和无人驾驶出租车,寻找下一个电动车投资机会的投资者,或许应该关注 Rivian。这家公司正处在一个关键节点,其发展阶段颇似 10 年前尚未全面爆发的特斯拉,有望迎来走向大众市场的突破。</p><p>从规模来看,Rivian 目前仍属“小而精”。去年其销量刚刚超过 4.2 万辆,而特斯拉同期销量约为 160 万辆。不过,Rivian 计划在今年推出一款价格更亲民的新车型,这有望显著提升其在大众市场的竞争力。</p><p>这也可能成为 Rivian 股价的重要转折点。该公司在 2021 年电动车市场火热时上市,市值一度接近 1000 亿美元,但随后大幅回落,目前市值约为 250 亿美元。以当前估值计算,Rivian 的市销率不足未来一年预期销售额的 4 倍,明显低于特斯拉超过 14 倍的水平。</p><p>目前,Rivian 面向消费者销售两款电动车型:R1T 皮卡和 R1S SUV,售价均在 7 万美元以上。此外,公司还向企业客户销售电动配送车,该车型源自其为亚马逊定制开发的版本,亚马逊也是 Rivian 的重要股东之一。Rivian CEO RJ·斯卡林奇表示,公司将在今年推出全新的 R2 SUV,起售价约为 4.5 万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a27a1fa9352df187499c422e7697ab94\" alt=\" Rivian 汽车\" title=\" Rivian 汽车\" tg-width=\"3000\" tg-height=\"1686\"/><span> Rivian 汽车</span></p><p>在品牌与产品层面,Rivian 已经取得了一定突破。消费者报告在去年 12 月发布的最新年度车主调查中,将 Rivian 评为车主满意度最高的汽车品牌。调查显示,85% 的 Rivian 车主表示愿意再次购买该品牌汽车。作为对比,排名第二的宝马这一比例为 71%,特斯拉则以 69% 排名第四。</p><p>投资人哈米德·绍贾伊认为,当前的 Rivian,颇似特斯拉在推出 Model 3 之前的阶段。Model 3 是特斯拉首款定价低于 7 万美元的车型,于 2017 年中推出时,特斯拉的股价约为下一年预期销售额的 5 倍。2018 年,Model 3 成为全球最畅销的豪华车,为 2020 年推出的 Model Y 打下基础。这两款车型的成功,最终确立了特斯拉作为主流车企的地位。绍贾伊早在 2015 年便开始买入特斯拉股票,并一路持有至其市值突破 1 万亿美元后数年才退出。</p><p>从估值对比来看(下图),Rivian 当前不到 4 倍的市销率,与特斯拉超过 14 倍的估值水平形成鲜明反差,使其成为更具吸引力的替代选择。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b7b80ec1f54890c54a889e118a3c8d\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"483\"/></p><p>尽管市场对 R2 的销量预测分歧较大,但斯卡林奇在去年 11 月表示,Rivian 正在改造位于伊利诺伊州的现有工厂,满产情况下年产能可达 21.5 万辆,其中约 15.5 万辆为 R2 车型。</p><p>此外,公司还在佐治亚州建设新的生产基地,预计于 2028 年底投产。斯卡林奇表示,该工厂建成后将新增约 40 万辆的年产能,主要用于 R1 和 R2 系列车型。</p><p>绍贾伊对 R2 的前景持高度乐观态度,认为其需求将超过 Rivian 的产能。他指出,R2 将成为特斯拉 Model Y 的首个真正竞争对手,而后者年销量约为 100 万辆。</p><p>“问题在于,Rivian 能不能卖出 20 万辆?在我看来,这几乎没有悬念。在相近的价格区间下,作为替代选择,它完全可以做到。”他说。</p><p>在业绩方面,Rivian 于 2023 年实现营收同比增长 167%,2024 年再增长 12%,收入规模约为 50 亿美元。绍贾伊预计,公司有望在 2026 年将营收增速提升至 50%,并在 2027 年维持这一水平。对于多数传统车企而言,这样的增长速度几乎不可能实现。</p><h3 id=\"id_2323227044\">特斯拉的放缓</h3><p>相比之下,特斯拉的增长已明显趋缓。2024 年其营收基本持平,约为 980 亿美元;据 Koyfin 调查的分析师预测,2025 年营收或降至 950 亿美元。特斯拉上周五披露,去年车辆交付量同比下降 9%。</p><p>部分下滑可能源于消费者对马斯克政治立场的不满,另一部分则与美国电动车税收优惠逐步退出有关。无论原因如何,Rivian 的表现同样承压:公司上周五披露,2025 年车辆交付量同比下降 18%。</p><p>不过,更具可比性的指标是特斯拉的高端车型交付情况。包括 Model S、Model X 和 Cybertruck 在内的高端车型,去年交付量同比下滑 40%。这与 Rivian 当前主打的产品定位高度重合,或暗示特斯拉正在失去部分美国高端消费者。</p><p>近期电动车需求走弱,引发了市场对美国消费者是否“失去兴趣”的讨论。一个直接结果是,传统车企对电动车项目的投入意愿下降,例如福特去年底宣布缩减其电动车计划。</p><p>但从长期看,电动车需求仍具反弹基础,即便没有购车补贴,其维护成本优势依然明显。根据 ConsumerAffairs 的评测,一辆 Rivian 电动车的年度基础维护成本约为同级燃油车的三分之一。</p><p>咨询公司安永在去年 9 月发布的报告中指出,尽管受关税上调、补贴到期及政策不确定性影响,美国电动车销量短期承压,但长期来看,电动车在美国新车销量中的占比有望在 2039 年升至 50%,目前这一比例尚不足四分之一。</p><p>在竞争格局上,虽然特斯拉仍是 Rivian 当前的主要对手,但其将重心转向机器人和无人驾驶出租车,意味着未来几年对 Rivian 的直接威胁或将减弱。在美国以外市场,中国电动车巨头比亚迪可能成为更强劲的竞争者。不过,高关税和地缘政治因素暂时限制了中国车企在美国的扩张。斯卡林奇表示,Rivian 计划在未来几年进入欧洲市场,届时将与比亚迪正面交锋。</p><p>R2 车型同样为 Rivian 打开了通向盈利的路径。公司在 2024 年净亏损 47 亿美元,较 2023 年有所收窄,但略高于 2021 年这一全球电动车需求高峰期。值得注意的是,截至 2025 年 9 月的季度,是 Rivian 上市以来仅有的第三个实现毛利为正的季度。斯卡林奇表示,根据当前与供应商的合同,R2 所需材料成本约为 R1 的一半,这对盈利能力改善意义重大。</p><p>不过,Rivian 实现自由现金流仍需时间。公司在截至 9 月的九个月内产生约 10 亿美元经营现金流,但同期资本支出约为 16 亿美元。斯卡林奇预计,随着佐治亚州工厂建设推进,2026 年资本开支还将上升。</p><p>除整车销售外,Rivian 在自动驾驶和软件领域的投入也有望带来回报。公司已向大众汽车出售电动车操作系统等软件工具,并计划在今年初向车主推出付费的自动驾驶订阅服务。虽然英伟达等科技公司同样在推进自动驾驶软件,但 Rivian 能将相关技术直接应用于自家车辆,这使其具备更高的潜在价值。</p><p>在截至 9 月的季度中,Rivian 的软件与服务业务收入同比增长超过 300%,该板块收入已占公司总收入的四分之一以上,涵盖自动驾驶、车辆营销和保险相关工具。</p><p>绍贾伊认为,Rivian 终将成长为一家市值 1000 亿美元的公司。“这个‘终有一天’,可能是一年,也可能是三年,但大概率不会超过这个时间跨度。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | 为何当下押注 Rivian,比特斯拉更具吸引力?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-12 13:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>随着埃隆·马斯克不断将特斯拉的重心从电动车转向人形机器人和无人驾驶出租车,寻找下一个电动车投资机会的投资者,或许应该关注 Rivian。这家公司正处在一个关键节点,其发展阶段颇似 10 年前尚未全面爆发的特斯拉,有望迎来走向大众市场的突破。</p><p>从规模来看,Rivian 目前仍属“小而精”。去年其销量刚刚超过 4.2 万辆,而特斯拉同期销量约为 160 万辆。不过,Rivian 计划在今年推出一款价格更亲民的新车型,这有望显著提升其在大众市场的竞争力。</p><p>这也可能成为 Rivian 股价的重要转折点。该公司在 2021 年电动车市场火热时上市,市值一度接近 1000 亿美元,但随后大幅回落,目前市值约为 250 亿美元。以当前估值计算,Rivian 的市销率不足未来一年预期销售额的 4 倍,明显低于特斯拉超过 14 倍的水平。</p><p>目前,Rivian 面向消费者销售两款电动车型:R1T 皮卡和 R1S SUV,售价均在 7 万美元以上。此外,公司还向企业客户销售电动配送车,该车型源自其为亚马逊定制开发的版本,亚马逊也是 Rivian 的重要股东之一。Rivian CEO RJ·斯卡林奇表示,公司将在今年推出全新的 R2 SUV,起售价约为 4.5 万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a27a1fa9352df187499c422e7697ab94\" alt=\" Rivian 汽车\" title=\" Rivian 汽车\" tg-width=\"3000\" tg-height=\"1686\"/><span> Rivian 汽车</span></p><p>在品牌与产品层面,Rivian 已经取得了一定突破。消费者报告在去年 12 月发布的最新年度车主调查中,将 Rivian 评为车主满意度最高的汽车品牌。调查显示,85% 的 Rivian 车主表示愿意再次购买该品牌汽车。作为对比,排名第二的宝马这一比例为 71%,特斯拉则以 69% 排名第四。</p><p>投资人哈米德·绍贾伊认为,当前的 Rivian,颇似特斯拉在推出 Model 3 之前的阶段。Model 3 是特斯拉首款定价低于 7 万美元的车型,于 2017 年中推出时,特斯拉的股价约为下一年预期销售额的 5 倍。2018 年,Model 3 成为全球最畅销的豪华车,为 2020 年推出的 Model Y 打下基础。这两款车型的成功,最终确立了特斯拉作为主流车企的地位。绍贾伊早在 2015 年便开始买入特斯拉股票,并一路持有至其市值突破 1 万亿美元后数年才退出。</p><p>从估值对比来看(下图),Rivian 当前不到 4 倍的市销率,与特斯拉超过 14 倍的估值水平形成鲜明反差,使其成为更具吸引力的替代选择。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b7b80ec1f54890c54a889e118a3c8d\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"483\"/></p><p>尽管市场对 R2 的销量预测分歧较大,但斯卡林奇在去年 11 月表示,Rivian 正在改造位于伊利诺伊州的现有工厂,满产情况下年产能可达 21.5 万辆,其中约 15.5 万辆为 R2 车型。</p><p>此外,公司还在佐治亚州建设新的生产基地,预计于 2028 年底投产。斯卡林奇表示,该工厂建成后将新增约 40 万辆的年产能,主要用于 R1 和 R2 系列车型。</p><p>绍贾伊对 R2 的前景持高度乐观态度,认为其需求将超过 Rivian 的产能。他指出,R2 将成为特斯拉 Model Y 的首个真正竞争对手,而后者年销量约为 100 万辆。</p><p>“问题在于,Rivian 能不能卖出 20 万辆?在我看来,这几乎没有悬念。在相近的价格区间下,作为替代选择,它完全可以做到。”他说。</p><p>在业绩方面,Rivian 于 2023 年实现营收同比增长 167%,2024 年再增长 12%,收入规模约为 50 亿美元。绍贾伊预计,公司有望在 2026 年将营收增速提升至 50%,并在 2027 年维持这一水平。对于多数传统车企而言,这样的增长速度几乎不可能实现。</p><h3 id=\"id_2323227044\">特斯拉的放缓</h3><p>相比之下,特斯拉的增长已明显趋缓。2024 年其营收基本持平,约为 980 亿美元;据 Koyfin 调查的分析师预测,2025 年营收或降至 950 亿美元。特斯拉上周五披露,去年车辆交付量同比下降 9%。</p><p>部分下滑可能源于消费者对马斯克政治立场的不满,另一部分则与美国电动车税收优惠逐步退出有关。无论原因如何,Rivian 的表现同样承压:公司上周五披露,2025 年车辆交付量同比下降 18%。</p><p>不过,更具可比性的指标是特斯拉的高端车型交付情况。包括 Model S、Model X 和 Cybertruck 在内的高端车型,去年交付量同比下滑 40%。这与 Rivian 当前主打的产品定位高度重合,或暗示特斯拉正在失去部分美国高端消费者。</p><p>近期电动车需求走弱,引发了市场对美国消费者是否“失去兴趣”的讨论。一个直接结果是,传统车企对电动车项目的投入意愿下降,例如福特去年底宣布缩减其电动车计划。</p><p>但从长期看,电动车需求仍具反弹基础,即便没有购车补贴,其维护成本优势依然明显。根据 ConsumerAffairs 的评测,一辆 Rivian 电动车的年度基础维护成本约为同级燃油车的三分之一。</p><p>咨询公司安永在去年 9 月发布的报告中指出,尽管受关税上调、补贴到期及政策不确定性影响,美国电动车销量短期承压,但长期来看,电动车在美国新车销量中的占比有望在 2039 年升至 50%,目前这一比例尚不足四分之一。</p><p>在竞争格局上,虽然特斯拉仍是 Rivian 当前的主要对手,但其将重心转向机器人和无人驾驶出租车,意味着未来几年对 Rivian 的直接威胁或将减弱。在美国以外市场,中国电动车巨头比亚迪可能成为更强劲的竞争者。不过,高关税和地缘政治因素暂时限制了中国车企在美国的扩张。斯卡林奇表示,Rivian 计划在未来几年进入欧洲市场,届时将与比亚迪正面交锋。</p><p>R2 车型同样为 Rivian 打开了通向盈利的路径。公司在 2024 年净亏损 47 亿美元,较 2023 年有所收窄,但略高于 2021 年这一全球电动车需求高峰期。值得注意的是,截至 2025 年 9 月的季度,是 Rivian 上市以来仅有的第三个实现毛利为正的季度。斯卡林奇表示,根据当前与供应商的合同,R2 所需材料成本约为 R1 的一半,这对盈利能力改善意义重大。</p><p>不过,Rivian 实现自由现金流仍需时间。公司在截至 9 月的九个月内产生约 10 亿美元经营现金流,但同期资本支出约为 16 亿美元。斯卡林奇预计,随着佐治亚州工厂建设推进,2026 年资本开支还将上升。</p><p>除整车销售外,Rivian 在自动驾驶和软件领域的投入也有望带来回报。公司已向大众汽车出售电动车操作系统等软件工具,并计划在今年初向车主推出付费的自动驾驶订阅服务。虽然英伟达等科技公司同样在推进自动驾驶软件,但 Rivian 能将相关技术直接应用于自家车辆,这使其具备更高的潜在价值。</p><p>在截至 9 月的季度中,Rivian 的软件与服务业务收入同比增长超过 300%,该板块收入已占公司总收入的四分之一以上,涵盖自动驾驶、车辆营销和保险相关工具。</p><p>绍贾伊认为,Rivian 终将成长为一家市值 1000 亿美元的公司。“这个‘终有一天’,可能是一年,也可能是三年,但大概率不会超过这个时间跨度。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d8ba54faa1a9d08aed79d6e8240d1f","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132794313","content_text":"随着埃隆·马斯克不断将特斯拉的重心从电动车转向人形机器人和无人驾驶出租车,寻找下一个电动车投资机会的投资者,或许应该关注 Rivian。这家公司正处在一个关键节点,其发展阶段颇似 10 年前尚未全面爆发的特斯拉,有望迎来走向大众市场的突破。从规模来看,Rivian 目前仍属“小而精”。去年其销量刚刚超过 4.2 万辆,而特斯拉同期销量约为 160 万辆。不过,Rivian 计划在今年推出一款价格更亲民的新车型,这有望显著提升其在大众市场的竞争力。这也可能成为 Rivian 股价的重要转折点。该公司在 2021 年电动车市场火热时上市,市值一度接近 1000 亿美元,但随后大幅回落,目前市值约为 250 亿美元。以当前估值计算,Rivian 的市销率不足未来一年预期销售额的 4 倍,明显低于特斯拉超过 14 倍的水平。目前,Rivian 面向消费者销售两款电动车型:R1T 皮卡和 R1S SUV,售价均在 7 万美元以上。此外,公司还向企业客户销售电动配送车,该车型源自其为亚马逊定制开发的版本,亚马逊也是 Rivian 的重要股东之一。Rivian CEO RJ·斯卡林奇表示,公司将在今年推出全新的 R2 SUV,起售价约为 4.5 万美元。 Rivian 汽车在品牌与产品层面,Rivian 已经取得了一定突破。消费者报告在去年 12 月发布的最新年度车主调查中,将 Rivian 评为车主满意度最高的汽车品牌。调查显示,85% 的 Rivian 车主表示愿意再次购买该品牌汽车。作为对比,排名第二的宝马这一比例为 71%,特斯拉则以 69% 排名第四。投资人哈米德·绍贾伊认为,当前的 Rivian,颇似特斯拉在推出 Model 3 之前的阶段。Model 3 是特斯拉首款定价低于 7 万美元的车型,于 2017 年中推出时,特斯拉的股价约为下一年预期销售额的 5 倍。2018 年,Model 3 成为全球最畅销的豪华车,为 2020 年推出的 Model Y 打下基础。这两款车型的成功,最终确立了特斯拉作为主流车企的地位。绍贾伊早在 2015 年便开始买入特斯拉股票,并一路持有至其市值突破 1 万亿美元后数年才退出。从估值对比来看(下图),Rivian 当前不到 4 倍的市销率,与特斯拉超过 14 倍的估值水平形成鲜明反差,使其成为更具吸引力的替代选择。尽管市场对 R2 的销量预测分歧较大,但斯卡林奇在去年 11 月表示,Rivian 正在改造位于伊利诺伊州的现有工厂,满产情况下年产能可达 21.5 万辆,其中约 15.5 万辆为 R2 车型。此外,公司还在佐治亚州建设新的生产基地,预计于 2028 年底投产。斯卡林奇表示,该工厂建成后将新增约 40 万辆的年产能,主要用于 R1 和 R2 系列车型。绍贾伊对 R2 的前景持高度乐观态度,认为其需求将超过 Rivian 的产能。他指出,R2 将成为特斯拉 Model Y 的首个真正竞争对手,而后者年销量约为 100 万辆。“问题在于,Rivian 能不能卖出 20 万辆?在我看来,这几乎没有悬念。在相近的价格区间下,作为替代选择,它完全可以做到。”他说。在业绩方面,Rivian 于 2023 年实现营收同比增长 167%,2024 年再增长 12%,收入规模约为 50 亿美元。绍贾伊预计,公司有望在 2026 年将营收增速提升至 50%,并在 2027 年维持这一水平。对于多数传统车企而言,这样的增长速度几乎不可能实现。特斯拉的放缓相比之下,特斯拉的增长已明显趋缓。2024 年其营收基本持平,约为 980 亿美元;据 Koyfin 调查的分析师预测,2025 年营收或降至 950 亿美元。特斯拉上周五披露,去年车辆交付量同比下降 9%。部分下滑可能源于消费者对马斯克政治立场的不满,另一部分则与美国电动车税收优惠逐步退出有关。无论原因如何,Rivian 的表现同样承压:公司上周五披露,2025 年车辆交付量同比下降 18%。不过,更具可比性的指标是特斯拉的高端车型交付情况。包括 Model S、Model X 和 Cybertruck 在内的高端车型,去年交付量同比下滑 40%。这与 Rivian 当前主打的产品定位高度重合,或暗示特斯拉正在失去部分美国高端消费者。近期电动车需求走弱,引发了市场对美国消费者是否“失去兴趣”的讨论。一个直接结果是,传统车企对电动车项目的投入意愿下降,例如福特去年底宣布缩减其电动车计划。但从长期看,电动车需求仍具反弹基础,即便没有购车补贴,其维护成本优势依然明显。根据 ConsumerAffairs 的评测,一辆 Rivian 电动车的年度基础维护成本约为同级燃油车的三分之一。咨询公司安永在去年 9 月发布的报告中指出,尽管受关税上调、补贴到期及政策不确定性影响,美国电动车销量短期承压,但长期来看,电动车在美国新车销量中的占比有望在 2039 年升至 50%,目前这一比例尚不足四分之一。在竞争格局上,虽然特斯拉仍是 Rivian 当前的主要对手,但其将重心转向机器人和无人驾驶出租车,意味着未来几年对 Rivian 的直接威胁或将减弱。在美国以外市场,中国电动车巨头比亚迪可能成为更强劲的竞争者。不过,高关税和地缘政治因素暂时限制了中国车企在美国的扩张。斯卡林奇表示,Rivian 计划在未来几年进入欧洲市场,届时将与比亚迪正面交锋。R2 车型同样为 Rivian 打开了通向盈利的路径。公司在 2024 年净亏损 47 亿美元,较 2023 年有所收窄,但略高于 2021 年这一全球电动车需求高峰期。值得注意的是,截至 2025 年 9 月的季度,是 Rivian 上市以来仅有的第三个实现毛利为正的季度。斯卡林奇表示,根据当前与供应商的合同,R2 所需材料成本约为 R1 的一半,这对盈利能力改善意义重大。不过,Rivian 实现自由现金流仍需时间。公司在截至 9 月的九个月内产生约 10 亿美元经营现金流,但同期资本支出约为 16 亿美元。斯卡林奇预计,随着佐治亚州工厂建设推进,2026 年资本开支还将上升。除整车销售外,Rivian 在自动驾驶和软件领域的投入也有望带来回报。公司已向大众汽车出售电动车操作系统等软件工具,并计划在今年初向车主推出付费的自动驾驶订阅服务。虽然英伟达等科技公司同样在推进自动驾驶软件,但 Rivian 能将相关技术直接应用于自家车辆,这使其具备更高的潜在价值。在截至 9 月的季度中,Rivian 的软件与服务业务收入同比增长超过 300%,该板块收入已占公司总收入的四分之一以上,涵盖自动驾驶、车辆营销和保险相关工具。绍贾伊认为,Rivian 终将成长为一家市值 1000 亿美元的公司。“这个‘终有一天’,可能是一年,也可能是三年,但大概率不会超过这个时间跨度。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":2,"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519946543789464,"gmtCreate":1767961338856,"gmtModify":1767961342602,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"什么老旧新闻,电动重卡和Roadster两款车都没有量产,可见当时吹得有多狠现在就有多尴尬。","listText":"什么老旧新闻,电动重卡和Roadster两款车都没有量产,可见当时吹得有多狠现在就有多尴尬。","text":"什么老旧新闻,电动重卡和Roadster两款车都没有量产,可见当时吹得有多狠现在就有多尴尬。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519946543789464","repostId":"2602324963","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2602324963","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767952830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602324963?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-09 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉电动卡车实测:性能强劲能耗低,三车组队还能省大钱!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602324963","media":"ITBEAR科技资讯","summary":"特斯拉全新电动卡车正式亮相,以颠覆性设计和技术重新定义商用运输。运营成本优势显著,特斯拉卡车每英里能耗成本仅为传统柴油车的30%。现场数据显示,传统卡车每英里运营成本1.51美元,特斯拉单车成本1.26美元,编队模式下更降至0.85美元。针对挂车碰撞后易弯折的痛点,特斯拉开发车身状态监测系统,可独立控制各车轮扭矩和制动器,在紧急制动时保持车身稳定。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>全新电动卡车正式亮相,以颠覆性设计和技术重新定义商用运输。这款采用6X4驱动形式的卡车,外观上拥有三个车轴和六个车轮,除前轮转向外,后部配备双轴驱动系统。整车搭载四个与Model 3通用的电机,每两个电机协同驱动一根车轴,实现高效动力输出。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109180818693d152fkx04l64p36\"/><p>驾驶舱设计突破传统,方向盘居中布置,为驾驶员提供360度无遮挡视野。座椅采用空气支撑可调设计,前方中控台延伸为“中控条”,两侧嵌入Model 3同款大屏。左侧屏幕实时显示车辆参数,右侧屏幕负责功能设置,边缘区域集成侧视摄像头画面,彻底消除盲区。车顶配备三个前视摄像头,后视镜和车侧定风翼各布置一个摄像头,构成全方位监控系统。尽管现行法规要求保留传统后视镜,但展车中已展示无后视镜版本,预示未来自动驾驶成熟后的设计方向。</p><p>性能表现堪称惊艳,空载状态下0-96km/h加速仅需5秒,满载36吨货物时加速时间控制在20秒内,远超传统柴油卡车15秒的空载加速表现。空气动力学设计达到极致,风阻系数低至0.36,甚至优于布加迪Chiron的0.38。续航方面,单次充电可行驶超过800公里,支持特斯拉超级充电桩30分钟补能400英里。针对物流行业痛点,特斯拉提出“运输途中充电”方案:在物流集散地部署太阳能储能系统,利用装卸货时间完成充电,彻底改变传统卡车“加油必须停运”的局限。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109180822143d152c39xnz4kd51\"/><p>运营<span>成本优势</span>显著,特斯拉卡车每英里能耗成本仅为传统柴油车的30%。若采用三车编队自动驾驶模式,中间两辆车可自动跟随头车行驶,人力成本降低66%。现场数据显示,传统卡车每英里运营成本1.51美元,特斯拉单车成本1.26美元,编队模式下更降至0.85美元。对于年行驶里程达30万公里的美国卡车而言,每年可节省数万美元费用。维护方面,电动系统省去发动机、变速箱等复杂部件,保养费用预计仅为奔驰同级车型的八分之一。</p><p>安全配置全面升级,AutoPilot系统集成自动紧急制动、车道保持和偏离预警功能。针对挂车碰撞后易弯折的痛点,特斯拉开发车身状态监测系统,可独立控制各车轮扭矩和制动器,在紧急制动时保持车身稳定。盲点监测系统通过多摄像头实时扫描,自动预警潜在危险。发布会特别强调:“我们希望卡车不再与危险划等号。”</p><p>这场科技盛宴的压轴戏是全新Roadster 2的登场。这款三电机驱动的超级跑车以1.9秒破百的加速性能震撼全场,4.2秒完成0-160km/h加速,1/4英里直线加速仅需8.9秒,最高时速突破400km/h。200kWh电池组提供992公里续航,10,000N·m的峰值扭矩输出重新定义性能标杆。马斯克表示:“Roadster 1证明电动车可行,Roadster 2要证明电动车能碾压所有燃油超跑。”这款计划2019年上市的跑车,目前已无直接竞争对手。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉电动卡车实测:性能强劲能耗低,三车组队还能省大钱!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉电动卡车实测:性能强劲能耗低,三车组队还能省大钱!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-09 18:00 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109180917a4afe331&s=b><strong>ITBEAR科技资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉全新电动卡车正式亮相,以颠覆性设计和技术重新定义商用运输。这款采用6X4驱动形式的卡车,外观上拥有三个车轴和六个车轮,除前轮转向外,后部配备双轴驱动系统。整车搭载四个与Model 3通用的电机,每两个电机协同驱动一根车轴,实现高效动力输出。驾驶舱设计突破传统,方向盘居中布置,为驾驶员提供360度无遮挡视野。座椅采用空气支撑可调设计,前方中控台延伸为“中控条”,两侧嵌入Model 3同款大屏。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109180917a4afe331&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD 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3同款大屏。左侧屏幕实时显示车辆参数,右侧屏幕负责功能设置,边缘区域集成侧视摄像头画面,彻底消除盲区。车顶配备三个前视摄像头,后视镜和车侧定风翼各布置一个摄像头,构成全方位监控系统。尽管现行法规要求保留传统后视镜,但展车中已展示无后视镜版本,预示未来自动驾驶成熟后的设计方向。性能表现堪称惊艳,空载状态下0-96km/h加速仅需5秒,满载36吨货物时加速时间控制在20秒内,远超传统柴油卡车15秒的空载加速表现。空气动力学设计达到极致,风阻系数低至0.36,甚至优于布加迪Chiron的0.38。续航方面,单次充电可行驶超过800公里,支持特斯拉超级充电桩30分钟补能400英里。针对物流行业痛点,特斯拉提出“运输途中充电”方案:在物流集散地部署太阳能储能系统,利用装卸货时间完成充电,彻底改变传统卡车“加油必须停运”的局限。运营成本优势显著,特斯拉卡车每英里能耗成本仅为传统柴油车的30%。若采用三车编队自动驾驶模式,中间两辆车可自动跟随头车行驶,人力成本降低66%。现场数据显示,传统卡车每英里运营成本1.51美元,特斯拉单车成本1.26美元,编队模式下更降至0.85美元。对于年行驶里程达30万公里的美国卡车而言,每年可节省数万美元费用。维护方面,电动系统省去发动机、变速箱等复杂部件,保养费用预计仅为奔驰同级车型的八分之一。安全配置全面升级,AutoPilot系统集成自动紧急制动、车道保持和偏离预警功能。针对挂车碰撞后易弯折的痛点,特斯拉开发车身状态监测系统,可独立控制各车轮扭矩和制动器,在紧急制动时保持车身稳定。盲点监测系统通过多摄像头实时扫描,自动预警潜在危险。发布会特别强调:“我们希望卡车不再与危险划等号。”这场科技盛宴的压轴戏是全新Roadster 2的登场。这款三电机驱动的超级跑车以1.9秒破百的加速性能震撼全场,4.2秒完成0-160km/h加速,1/4英里直线加速仅需8.9秒,最高时速突破400km/h。200kWh电池组提供992公里续航,10,000N·m的峰值扭矩输出重新定义性能标杆。马斯克表示:“Roadster 1证明电动车可行,Roadster 2要证明电动车能碾压所有燃油超跑。”这款计划2019年上市的跑车,目前已无直接竞争对手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.98,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519928008967368,"gmtCreate":1767956805114,"gmtModify":1767956807805,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorIdStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"其中有段写得很好,训练特斯拉投资者忽略短期业绩,可不就是马圣的畜牧业吗[开心] ","listText":"其中有段写得很好,训练特斯拉投资者忽略短期业绩,可不就是马圣的畜牧业吗[开心] ","text":"其中有段写得很好,训练特斯拉投资者忽略短期业绩,可不就是马圣的畜牧业吗[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519928008967368","repostId":"1168324964","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168324964","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1767940961,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168324964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-09 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉股价因“马斯克效应”而飙升,SpaceX 投资者需要知道什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168324964","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"SpaceX 的 Starlink 服务已有超过 900 万名用户,而其可重复使用火箭显著降低了进入太空的成本。特斯拉投资者对此并不意外。这就是所谓的“马斯克效应”。但这本身并不会毁掉 SpaceX 的股价,这正是“马斯克效应”的作用。此后其股价的飙升表明:错过时间表对一家“马斯克概念股”而言并非生死威胁。毕竟,火星不会像 Starlink 或马斯克能够构想出的其他应用那样,为 SpaceX 带来现实收入。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3 id=\"id_2882076582\">要点</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p>马斯克提出的雄心勃勃的时间表(例如 2026 年火星任务)经常延期,这对特斯拉投资者来说早已司空见惯。</p></li><li><p>特斯拉当前市值约为 1.4 万亿美元,并以 220倍2026年预期市盈率,成为 2025 年标普 500 指数中估值最贵的股票。</p></li><li><p>SpaceX 的 Starlink 服务已有超过 900 万名用户,而其可重复使用火箭显著降低了进入太空的成本。</p></li></ul><p>随着 SpaceX 的首次公开募股临近,潜在投资者需要了解一点:这正是特斯拉(TSLA)投资者早已熟知的关于这位“非传统人物”的事实。</p><p><strong>他不是一位典型的 CEO。</strong></p><p>通常,华尔街希望管理层给出可以、也将会超出市场预期的业绩指引。事实上,超预期本身已经成为投资者的“基准预期”。根据 FactSet 的数据,在第三季度,标普 500 指数中有 83% 的公司业绩超过华尔街预期。</p><p>然而,马斯克提供的往往是更具理想主义色彩的愿景——而且通常无法按时兑现。</p><p>最新的例子就是火星。</p><p>马斯克的目标之一是将人类文明扩展到地球之外,这也是 SpaceX 出售“占领火星(Occupy Mars)”T 恤的原因之一。第一步就是在 2026 年发射一次火星任务,这一想法马斯克在 2024 年开始谈论,并在 2025 年再次重申。</p><p>但现在看来,这一目标不太可能实现。马斯克在本周发布的一期播客中对企业家彼得·迪亚曼迪斯(Peter Diamandis)表示,2026 年发射“成功概率很低,而且多少有点分散注意力”。</p><p>时间表再次推迟。特斯拉投资者对此并不意外。毕竟,马斯克早在 2016 年左右就开始谈论真正的全自动驾驶汽车,此后几乎每年都会重复这一预测,直到 2025 年,特斯拉才终于在得克萨斯州奥斯汀推出了自动驾驶出租车服务。</p><p>马斯克自己也承认他“病态地乐观”。不过,这种“疯狂”背后自有逻辑:他实际上已经训练特斯拉投资者忽略短期业绩,而把注意力放在遥远的未来。</p><p>目前,特斯拉市值约为 1.4 万亿美元,并以220倍2026年预期市盈率结束 2025 年,成为标普 500 中估值最高的股票(数据来源:FactSet)。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92ffd1f1b799e529dd753947ff517639\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>这一估值是在电动车销量连续两年下滑的背景下形成的。不仅如此,过去 12 个月中,其2026 年的盈利预期已从每股 4 美元以上被砍半至约 2 美元。然而,同期华尔街给出的目标价却从约 350 美元上调至 425 美元。分析师更关注未来机会,例如 AI 自动驾驶出租车和机器人,而非电动车本身。</p><p>这就是所谓的“马斯克效应”。</p><p>当 SpaceX 上市时,投资者将仔细研究其更为“实在”的业务预期,例如发射服务和 Starlink 的天基宽带产品(其用户已超过 900 万)。他们也会思考 SpaceX 在尚不成熟的国防和 AI 业务方面的前景。(马斯克希望把 AI 数据中心放到太空中,使 SpaceX 在某种意义上成为 OpenAI 或 Alphabet 等公司的竞争者。)</p><p>届时,市场上会出现大量宏大的数字和潜在时间表,而这些最初的时间表几乎肯定都会过于乐观。</p><p>但这本身并不会毁掉 SpaceX 的股价,这正是“马斯克效应”的作用。2010 年,特斯拉刚上市不久时,股价还只有 1.50 美元。此后其股价的飙升表明:错过时间表对一家“马斯克概念股”而言并非生死威胁。</p><p>SpaceX 还有其现实业务作为支撑:公司基本上发明了可重复使用火箭,大幅降低了进入太空的成本,并促成了整个现代航天经济的形成。</p><p>至于火星,地球与火星每约 26 个月才会出现一次最近距离的发射窗口。因此,错过 2026 年窗口至少意味着再延迟两年。</p><p>投资者大概率不会介意这一延误。毕竟,火星不会像 Starlink 或马斯克能够构想出的其他应用那样,为 SpaceX 带来现实收入。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉股价因“马斯克效应”而飙升,SpaceX 投资者需要知道什么?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉股价因“马斯克效应”而飙升,SpaceX 投资者需要知道什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-09 14:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h3 id=\"id_2882076582\">要点</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p>马斯克提出的雄心勃勃的时间表(例如 2026 年火星任务)经常延期,这对特斯拉投资者来说早已司空见惯。</p></li><li><p>特斯拉当前市值约为 1.4 万亿美元,并以 220倍2026年预期市盈率,成为 2025 年标普 500 指数中估值最贵的股票。</p></li><li><p>SpaceX 的 Starlink 服务已有超过 900 万名用户,而其可重复使用火箭显著降低了进入太空的成本。</p></li></ul><p>随着 SpaceX 的首次公开募股临近,潜在投资者需要了解一点:这正是特斯拉(TSLA)投资者早已熟知的关于这位“非传统人物”的事实。</p><p><strong>他不是一位典型的 CEO。</strong></p><p>通常,华尔街希望管理层给出可以、也将会超出市场预期的业绩指引。事实上,超预期本身已经成为投资者的“基准预期”。根据 FactSet 的数据,在第三季度,标普 500 指数中有 83% 的公司业绩超过华尔街预期。</p><p>然而,马斯克提供的往往是更具理想主义色彩的愿景——而且通常无法按时兑现。</p><p>最新的例子就是火星。</p><p>马斯克的目标之一是将人类文明扩展到地球之外,这也是 SpaceX 出售“占领火星(Occupy Mars)”T 恤的原因之一。第一步就是在 2026 年发射一次火星任务,这一想法马斯克在 2024 年开始谈论,并在 2025 年再次重申。</p><p>但现在看来,这一目标不太可能实现。马斯克在本周发布的一期播客中对企业家彼得·迪亚曼迪斯(Peter Diamandis)表示,2026 年发射“成功概率很低,而且多少有点分散注意力”。</p><p>时间表再次推迟。特斯拉投资者对此并不意外。毕竟,马斯克早在 2016 年左右就开始谈论真正的全自动驾驶汽车,此后几乎每年都会重复这一预测,直到 2025 年,特斯拉才终于在得克萨斯州奥斯汀推出了自动驾驶出租车服务。</p><p>马斯克自己也承认他“病态地乐观”。不过,这种“疯狂”背后自有逻辑:他实际上已经训练特斯拉投资者忽略短期业绩,而把注意力放在遥远的未来。</p><p>目前,特斯拉市值约为 1.4 万亿美元,并以220倍2026年预期市盈率结束 2025 年,成为标普 500 中估值最高的股票(数据来源:FactSet)。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92ffd1f1b799e529dd753947ff517639\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>这一估值是在电动车销量连续两年下滑的背景下形成的。不仅如此,过去 12 个月中,其2026 年的盈利预期已从每股 4 美元以上被砍半至约 2 美元。然而,同期华尔街给出的目标价却从约 350 美元上调至 425 美元。分析师更关注未来机会,例如 AI 自动驾驶出租车和机器人,而非电动车本身。</p><p>这就是所谓的“马斯克效应”。</p><p>当 SpaceX 上市时,投资者将仔细研究其更为“实在”的业务预期,例如发射服务和 Starlink 的天基宽带产品(其用户已超过 900 万)。他们也会思考 SpaceX 在尚不成熟的国防和 AI 业务方面的前景。(马斯克希望把 AI 数据中心放到太空中,使 SpaceX 在某种意义上成为 OpenAI 或 Alphabet 等公司的竞争者。)</p><p>届时,市场上会出现大量宏大的数字和潜在时间表,而这些最初的时间表几乎肯定都会过于乐观。</p><p>但这本身并不会毁掉 SpaceX 的股价,这正是“马斯克效应”的作用。2010 年,特斯拉刚上市不久时,股价还只有 1.50 美元。此后其股价的飙升表明:错过时间表对一家“马斯克概念股”而言并非生死威胁。</p><p>SpaceX 还有其现实业务作为支撑:公司基本上发明了可重复使用火箭,大幅降低了进入太空的成本,并促成了整个现代航天经济的形成。</p><p>至于火星,地球与火星每约 26 个月才会出现一次最近距离的发射窗口。因此,错过 2026 年窗口至少意味着再延迟两年。</p><p>投资者大概率不会介意这一延误。毕竟,火星不会像 Starlink 或马斯克能够构想出的其他应用那样,为 SpaceX 带来现实收入。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7183e21298778966daf6813d89233ca4","relate_stocks":{"DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168324964","content_text":"要点马斯克提出的雄心勃勃的时间表(例如 2026 年火星任务)经常延期,这对特斯拉投资者来说早已司空见惯。特斯拉当前市值约为 1.4 万亿美元,并以 220倍2026年预期市盈率,成为 2025 年标普 500 指数中估值最贵的股票。SpaceX 的 Starlink 服务已有超过 900 万名用户,而其可重复使用火箭显著降低了进入太空的成本。随着 SpaceX 的首次公开募股临近,潜在投资者需要了解一点:这正是特斯拉(TSLA)投资者早已熟知的关于这位“非传统人物”的事实。他不是一位典型的 CEO。通常,华尔街希望管理层给出可以、也将会超出市场预期的业绩指引。事实上,超预期本身已经成为投资者的“基准预期”。根据 FactSet 的数据,在第三季度,标普 500 指数中有 83% 的公司业绩超过华尔街预期。然而,马斯克提供的往往是更具理想主义色彩的愿景——而且通常无法按时兑现。最新的例子就是火星。马斯克的目标之一是将人类文明扩展到地球之外,这也是 SpaceX 出售“占领火星(Occupy Mars)”T 恤的原因之一。第一步就是在 2026 年发射一次火星任务,这一想法马斯克在 2024 年开始谈论,并在 2025 年再次重申。但现在看来,这一目标不太可能实现。马斯克在本周发布的一期播客中对企业家彼得·迪亚曼迪斯(Peter Diamandis)表示,2026 年发射“成功概率很低,而且多少有点分散注意力”。时间表再次推迟。特斯拉投资者对此并不意外。毕竟,马斯克早在 2016 年左右就开始谈论真正的全自动驾驶汽车,此后几乎每年都会重复这一预测,直到 2025 年,特斯拉才终于在得克萨斯州奥斯汀推出了自动驾驶出租车服务。马斯克自己也承认他“病态地乐观”。不过,这种“疯狂”背后自有逻辑:他实际上已经训练特斯拉投资者忽略短期业绩,而把注意力放在遥远的未来。目前,特斯拉市值约为 1.4 万亿美元,并以220倍2026年预期市盈率结束 2025 年,成为标普 500 中估值最高的股票(数据来源:FactSet)。这一估值是在电动车销量连续两年下滑的背景下形成的。不仅如此,过去 12 个月中,其2026 年的盈利预期已从每股 4 美元以上被砍半至约 2 美元。然而,同期华尔街给出的目标价却从约 350 美元上调至 425 美元。分析师更关注未来机会,例如 AI 自动驾驶出租车和机器人,而非电动车本身。这就是所谓的“马斯克效应”。当 SpaceX 上市时,投资者将仔细研究其更为“实在”的业务预期,例如发射服务和 Starlink 的天基宽带产品(其用户已超过 900 万)。他们也会思考 SpaceX 在尚不成熟的国防和 AI 业务方面的前景。(马斯克希望把 AI 数据中心放到太空中,使 SpaceX 在某种意义上成为 OpenAI 或 Alphabet 等公司的竞争者。)届时,市场上会出现大量宏大的数字和潜在时间表,而这些最初的时间表几乎肯定都会过于乐观。但这本身并不会毁掉 SpaceX 的股价,这正是“马斯克效应”的作用。2010 年,特斯拉刚上市不久时,股价还只有 1.50 美元。此后其股价的飙升表明:错过时间表对一家“马斯克概念股”而言并非生死威胁。SpaceX 还有其现实业务作为支撑:公司基本上发明了可重复使用火箭,大幅降低了进入太空的成本,并促成了整个现代航天经济的形成。至于火星,地球与火星每约 26 个月才会出现一次最近距离的发射窗口。因此,错过 2026 年窗口至少意味着再延迟两年。投资者大概率不会介意这一延误。毕竟,火星不会像 Starlink 或马斯克能够构想出的其他应用那样,为 SpaceX 带来现实收入。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2,"DXYZ":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":388350320689584,"gmtCreate":1735854878766,"gmtModify":1736080203942,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 继续持有,跟着马大炮混也没说只能做多。谢谢大炮的新年红包,再多发几个叭[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 继续持有,跟着马大炮混也没说只能做多。谢谢大炮的新年红包,再多发几个叭[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 继续持有,跟着马大炮混也没说只能做多。谢谢大炮的新年红包,再多发几个叭[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e252eda3edd97c0f0e617b6c218fa548","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388350320689584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3488407236949514","authorId":"3488407236949514","name":"稳扎稳打的勇爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93adac01897c2b29d022dc7bc678a9d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3488407236949514","idStr":"3488407236949514"},"content":"买期权呀,时间价值有损耗呀,万一来个大涨就傻了","text":"买期权呀,时间价值有损耗呀,万一来个大涨就傻了","html":"买期权呀,时间价值有损耗呀,万一来个大涨就傻了"},{"author":{"id":"3559984961569694","authorId":"3559984961569694","name":"南山小鱼人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb76ca2ace8362af8e23def4f95d9a8f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3559984961569694","idStr":"3559984961569694"},"content":"这笔put亏了14700多刀吧","text":"这笔put亏了14700多刀吧","html":"这笔put亏了14700多刀吧"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848958347,"gmtCreate":1635955907637,"gmtModify":1635957311381,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 舒服了,终于开始连续下行","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 舒服了,终于开始连续下行","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 舒服了,终于开始连续下行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":37,"commentSize":28,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848958347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472098980994884","authorId":"3472098980994884","name":"拒绝游泳的鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52fff20daaba255185a5f3bd46574b0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3472098980994884","idStr":"3472098980994884"},"content":"回调空间有限","text":"回调空间有限","html":"回调空间有限"},{"author":{"id":"290453790419835","authorId":"290453790419835","name":"财富888","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"290453790419835","idStr":"290453790419835"},"content":"继续等你的950嘛","text":"继续等你的950嘛","html":"继续等你的950嘛"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":482284250611784,"gmtCreate":1758774145252,"gmtModify":1758774147446,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"车企还不是得靠卖车的利好,卖车不好跌得少,教主的教育真不错","listText":"车企还不是得靠卖车的利好,卖车不好跌得少,教主的教育真不错","text":"车企还不是得靠卖车的利好,卖车不好跌得少,教主的教育真不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/482284250611784","repostId":"2570408735","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2570408735","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1758750631,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2570408735?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-25 05:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛之后瑞银跟进,华尔街竞相上调特斯拉三季度交付预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2570408735","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆,高于市场共识,美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲,欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此,瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级,预期第四季度交付将环比下滑,并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动,而非汽车业务基本面。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆,高于市场共识,美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲,欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此,瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级,预期第四季度交付将环比下滑,并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动,而非汽车业务基本面。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉预计将在10月初公布2025年第三季度的交付报告,多家投行已提前上调交付预期。高盛分析师此前已上调交付量预测并提高目标价,而瑞银(UBS)分析师在本周也上调交付预估至超出市场普遍共识的水平,但仍维持对特斯拉股票的“卖出”(Sell)评级。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>瑞银最新预测特斯拉第三季度交付量为47.5万辆,较去年同期增长3%,较上一季度增长24%,明显高于此前预估的43.1万辆。</strong>这一数字比市场数据平台Visible Alpha的共识高出约8%,但与投资机构买方的预期更加接近,后者普遍预估交付量在47万至47.5万辆之间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银分析师Joseph Spak在周一发布的报告中表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“我们认为,我们的新预测更加贴近买方对于47万至47.5万辆区间的预期。”</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但他也指出:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“尽管最终数据可能符合买方预期,但我们通常发现,股价仍会根据是否超出或低于媒体的‘头条数字’而产生反应。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e222fca6e46bbf77139138eb88e10025\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"293\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉股价周三收涨近4%,今年迄今涨幅接近10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3802563c9fe30ce2449b19b890f13f3a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spak在报告中指出,瑞银之所以上调预测,是因为第三季度在多个市场的交付表现超出预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先,在美国市场,消费者为了赶上2025年9月底即将到期的《通胀削减法案》(IRA)下7500美元电动车税收抵免,推动了特斯拉销量大增。瑞银认为,本季度可能创下自2023年中以来美国季度交付量最高纪录,甚至可能是有史以来最高水平。然而,分析师也警告,当前的强劲需求很可能属于“提前透支”,意味着即使特斯拉在第四季度推出“低价版”Model Y,交付量仍可能环比下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">欧洲市场也展现复苏迹象。数据显示,第三季度前两个月,特斯拉在欧洲前八大市场的交付量环比增长约22%。中国市场方面,零售交付量(即批发减去出口)环比增长约45%,表现同样稳健。此外,瑞银指出,土耳其和韩国市场的交付增长也值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在库存方面,瑞银预计本季度交付量将超过产量,幅度可能达到7%,这将有助于特斯拉降低库存水平。</strong>相比之下,2025年第二季度产量曾超出交付量约2.6万辆,占比6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银同时预计,特斯拉将在财报中披露本季度能源储能系统部署情况。尽管受到会计确认规则的限制,该数据难以即时核实,瑞银预测部署量为10.4GWh,环比增长8%,基本与Visible Alpha市场共识的10.9GWh持平,也高于上一季度的9.6GWh。Spak提醒投资者,能源储能业务具有周期性波动,单季度数据不宜过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望未来,瑞银预计2025年第四季度交付量将为42.8万辆,环比下降10%,同比下降14%。这一预估已经考虑了中国市场Model Y L车型的推出,以及美国市场可能面世的“低价版”Model Y。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全年方面,瑞银将2025年交付总量预期从151万辆上调至162万辆,尽管同比仍下降9%,但与市场共识持平。2026年交付量预期则略下调至160万辆,较市场共识低14%。瑞银表示,将在10月2日特斯拉公布实际交付数据后更新其财务模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管短期交付数据有所改善,Spak在报告最后仍强调:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“特斯拉股价的主要驱动力更多来自于人工智能的市场叙事,而非其汽车主业。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3661ffb4c9afdc6c80a97065821246\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛之后瑞银跟进,华尔街竞相上调特斯拉三季度交付预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛之后瑞银跟进,华尔街竞相上调特斯拉三季度交付预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-25 05:50 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆,高于市场共识,美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲,欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此,瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级,预期第四季度交付将环比下滑,并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动,而非汽车业务基本面。特斯拉预计将在10月初公布2025年第三季度的交付报告,多家投行已提前上调交付预期。高盛分析师此前已上调交付量预测并提高目标价,而瑞银...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2570408735","content_text":"瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆,高于市场共识,美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲,欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此,瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级,预期第四季度交付将环比下滑,并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动,而非汽车业务基本面。特斯拉预计将在10月初公布2025年第三季度的交付报告,多家投行已提前上调交付预期。高盛分析师此前已上调交付量预测并提高目标价,而瑞银(UBS)分析师在本周也上调交付预估至超出市场普遍共识的水平,但仍维持对特斯拉股票的“卖出”(Sell)评级。瑞银最新预测特斯拉第三季度交付量为47.5万辆,较去年同期增长3%,较上一季度增长24%,明显高于此前预估的43.1万辆。这一数字比市场数据平台Visible Alpha的共识高出约8%,但与投资机构买方的预期更加接近,后者普遍预估交付量在47万至47.5万辆之间。瑞银分析师Joseph Spak在周一发布的报告中表示:“我们认为,我们的新预测更加贴近买方对于47万至47.5万辆区间的预期。”但他也指出:“尽管最终数据可能符合买方预期,但我们通常发现,股价仍会根据是否超出或低于媒体的‘头条数字’而产生反应。”特斯拉股价周三收涨近4%,今年迄今涨幅接近10%。Spak在报告中指出,瑞银之所以上调预测,是因为第三季度在多个市场的交付表现超出预期。首先,在美国市场,消费者为了赶上2025年9月底即将到期的《通胀削减法案》(IRA)下7500美元电动车税收抵免,推动了特斯拉销量大增。瑞银认为,本季度可能创下自2023年中以来美国季度交付量最高纪录,甚至可能是有史以来最高水平。然而,分析师也警告,当前的强劲需求很可能属于“提前透支”,意味着即使特斯拉在第四季度推出“低价版”Model Y,交付量仍可能环比下降。欧洲市场也展现复苏迹象。数据显示,第三季度前两个月,特斯拉在欧洲前八大市场的交付量环比增长约22%。中国市场方面,零售交付量(即批发减去出口)环比增长约45%,表现同样稳健。此外,瑞银指出,土耳其和韩国市场的交付增长也值得关注。在库存方面,瑞银预计本季度交付量将超过产量,幅度可能达到7%,这将有助于特斯拉降低库存水平。相比之下,2025年第二季度产量曾超出交付量约2.6万辆,占比6%。瑞银同时预计,特斯拉将在财报中披露本季度能源储能系统部署情况。尽管受到会计确认规则的限制,该数据难以即时核实,瑞银预测部署量为10.4GWh,环比增长8%,基本与Visible Alpha市场共识的10.9GWh持平,也高于上一季度的9.6GWh。Spak提醒投资者,能源储能业务具有周期性波动,单季度数据不宜过度解读。展望未来,瑞银预计2025年第四季度交付量将为42.8万辆,环比下降10%,同比下降14%。这一预估已经考虑了中国市场Model Y L车型的推出,以及美国市场可能面世的“低价版”Model Y。全年方面,瑞银将2025年交付总量预期从151万辆上调至162万辆,尽管同比仍下降9%,但与市场共识持平。2026年交付量预期则略下调至160万辆,较市场共识低14%。瑞银表示,将在10月2日特斯拉公布实际交付数据后更新其财务模型。尽管短期交付数据有所改善,Spak在报告最后仍强调:“特斯拉股价的主要驱动力更多来自于人工智能的市场叙事,而非其汽车主业。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1.5,"TSLA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4200747074916302","authorId":"4200747074916302","name":"sacredling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a5dd9339674724cde9c0cb76421647d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4200747074916302","idStr":"4200747074916302"},"content":"200多喊到现在400多了,倒是使劲空嘛,说再多都没用","text":"200多喊到现在400多了,倒是使劲空嘛,说再多都没用","html":"200多喊到现在400多了,倒是使劲空嘛,说再多都没用"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409615494414632,"gmtCreate":1741013693712,"gmtModify":1741019403619,"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>精彩的拉高出货,准备好继续向下了吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>精彩的拉高出货,准备好继续向下了吗?","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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