Alex_0099的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Alex_0099

Alex_0099

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IP属地：上海

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1主题

0勋章

06-11

预测未来三年亏340亿，但账面只有200多亿。这不就KO了？

花旗维持蔚来买入评级，将目标价从79.6元调低至65.2元

06-11

$蔚来-SW(09866)$ 一季度季报带来影响相比上涨预期影响已经很收敛了，下半周应该反弹了。

06-06

$蔚来-SW(09866)$ 这次季报两年来算最差的，看看能回撤多少吧

06-04

‌$理想汽车-W(02015)$ ‌二季度季报还是亏损，裁员降本得三季度了。70见了

06-04

‌$蔚来-SW(09866)$ ‌6.6季报出来大概率会暴跌一波

05-30

‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ ‌十股并一股，再增发，再并股，无穷尽也啊。

05-28

好文！

2024年，换电抢了增程的风头

05-24

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 能维持在1块多是最好的结果了

05-24

$理想汽车(LI)$ 破了20，会继续下探，15不远了

05-24

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 苏妈光想着套现，和老黄不是一个境界。真正的创始人对公司何等重要。在牛逼的打工CEO也无法和创始人相提并论

05-24

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 只能说太牛逼了

05-23

‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ ‌没有庄家托盘很快就又垃圾股退市风险了。

05-23

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 如果LISA不一直卖，早就200了

05-22

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 没量了，基本很快4就回到几分了

05-21

$理想汽车-W(02015)$ 难怪大裁员，少5000人能否扭亏？按人均4万，一个季度6亿，正好补亏。三季度有希望。但二季度还得亏，7月看$12。

05-20

$理想汽车(LI)$ 增程太多了，理想纯电和非SUV转型失败，短期看不到反弹的力量。二季度股价$20以下大概率

05-02

$理想汽车(LI)$ 咋回事？赌季报？

05-02

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ insider trade 预示一切

04-26

完了

巴克莱：下调理想汽车(LI.US)评级，由增持调整至持股观望评级, 目标价由39.00美元调整至25.00美元。

04-22

‌$理想汽车-W(02015)$ ‌2个月降到50港币，不是不可能啊

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class=\"title\">\n花旗维持蔚来买入评级，将目标价从79.6元调低至65.2元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-11 10:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1355502/latest-news/AAFN><strong>阿斯达克财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>花旗发表研究报告指，蔚来年初至今销售势头强劲，加上ONVO和Firefly即将推出新车型，该行将集团2024及25年的销售预测由19万和25.9万辆分别上调至22.7万及30.8万辆，而2026年则预计为39万辆，又将2024及25年的毛利率分别下调1.5和1.9个百分点，至10%和11.5%，另外，2026年毛利率预测为13.2%。花旗表示，蔚来次季销售指引为5.4万至5.6万辆，按季增80至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1355502/latest-news/AAFN\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20210201115903972_s.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1355502/latest-news/AAFN","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2442894003","content_text":"花旗发表研究报告指，蔚来年初至今销售势头强劲，加上ONVO和Firefly即将推出新车型，该行将集团2024及25年的销售预测由19万和25.9万辆分别上调至22.7万及30.8万辆，而2026年则预计为39万辆，又将2024及25年的毛利率分别下调1.5和1.9个百分点，至10%和11.5%，另外，2026年毛利率预测为13.2%。花旗表示，蔚来次季销售指引为5.4万至5.6万辆，按季增80至86%。展望未来，管理层预计公司毛利率将自第二季恢复至双位数，随后将按季持续改善。该行考虑到最新指引，预期公司2024至26年的净亏损分别为162亿、125亿及60亿元人民币，目标价由79.6元下调至65.2元，维持“买入”评级。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315650427326688,"gmtCreate":1718094033034,"gmtModify":1718097421310,"author":{"id":"3535535770162265","authorId":"3535535770162265","name":"Alex_0099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1a58594ee71017c239db9e4dfea780","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">$蔚来-SW(09866)$&nbsp;</a> 这次季报两年来算最差的，看看能回撤多少吧","text":"$蔚来-SW(09866)$ 这次季报两年来算最差的，看看能回撤多少吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313774301131072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550805207824943","authorId":"3550805207824943","name":"阿洋抄美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f88cfa5c3d4e483795484efeba1b7c6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"晚上8点，这次估计是会比较糟糕！但是，长期还是看好的","text":"晚上8点，这次估计是会比较糟糕！但是，长期还是看好的","html":"晚上8点，这次估计是会比较糟糕！但是，长期还是看好的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313141211181392,"gmtCreate":1717472652367,"gmtModify":1717490539585,"author":{"id":"3535535770162265","authorId":"3535535770162265","name":"Alex_0099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1a58594ee71017c239db9e4dfea780","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$理想汽车-W(02015)$ 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‌6.6季报出来大概率会暴跌一波","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313141051547936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311366653796608,"gmtCreate":1717037003895,"gmtModify":1717037005104,"author":{"id":"3535535770162265","authorId":"3535535770162265","name":"Alex_0099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1a58594ee71017c239db9e4dfea780","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>‌十股并一股，再增发，再并股，无穷尽也啊。","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>‌十股并一股，再增发，再并股，无穷尽也啊。","text":"‌$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ ‌十股并一股，再增发，再并股，无穷尽也啊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311366653796608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310736637218832,"gmtCreate":1716891298381,"gmtModify":1716891300132,"author":{"id":"3535535770162265","authorId":"3535535770162265","name":"Alex_0099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1a58594ee71017c239db9e4dfea780","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文！","listText":"好文！","text":"好文！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310736637218832","repostId":"2438845761","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2438845761","pubTimestamp":1716771952,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2438845761?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-27 09:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2024年，换电抢了增程的风头","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2438845761","media":"镜观台","summary":"截至2024年4月30日，蔚来已布局2411座换电站。公开资料显示，蔚来自2018年至2023年，亏损已超过800亿元。6月6日，蔚来将刊发2024年第一季度业绩，亏损或将持续。2023年11月，长安汽车率先官宣将与蔚来合作，两家车企会一同研发可换电的车型，并且首款共用电池包的车型将会在2025年上市。进入2024年，奇瑞汽车、江汽集团、路特斯等车企陆续加入。东方证券也认为，到2025年国内换电车型占比有望达30%。","content":"<html><body><p>文 | 惠鹏权</p><p>恐怕连<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>董事长兼CEO李斌也没想到，换电战略合作的谈判如此顺利。</p><p>去年11月20日，李斌在回答内部员工“换电业务是否可持续经营”的问题时表示，明天（11月21日）会发布第一家合作，后面还有4-5家在谈。</p><p>“第一家”就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>。</p><p>此后一发不可收拾，半年的时间，除了长安汽车，吉利、奇瑞、江汽集团、路特斯、广汽和中国一汽先后加入了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>的“换电联盟”。</p><p>而“换电联盟”还有一个潜在的盟友，即<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>。小鹏汽车董事长兼CEO何小鹏在给李斌交付小鹏X9时表示，等蔚来换电站建到5000座时，就认真考虑加盟的事。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>来源/蔚来官方公众号 镜观台截图</p><p>按照蔚来的部署，2024年要在2023年2316座换电站的基础上，再增加1000座。截至2024年4月30日，蔚来已布局2411座换电站。</p><p>随着长安汽车等主流车企加盟，换电站的开建速度只会更快。</p><p>蔚来的换电护城河也会越来越深。但李斌自然不满足于此，近日又“怂恿”小米董事长兼CEO雷军考虑一下换电。</p><p>雷军并未做出正面回应，但有理由相信，还会有下一家车企加入“换电联盟”。</p><p>如果说2023年是增程车的元年，那么，2024年，换电的风头正劲。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p><strong>换电须提速</strong></p><p>虽然蔚来是国内布局充电桩最多的汽车品牌，截至4月30日，已超过2.2万根，但提起蔚来，消费者的第一反应还是换电。</p><p>李斌就表示，换电是蔚来的护城河，“但蔚来从第一天开始做换电起就决定开放”。</p><p>公开资料显示，蔚来第一座换电站位于深圳南山科技园，2018年5月20日正式投入运营，至今已过去了6年。</p><p>那为什么5、6年后，蔚来才和其他车企开启换电站的战略合作呢？就有业内专家向镜观台表示，一方面蔚来换电在很长时间内都不被看好；另一方面，蔚来持续亏损让其在新建换电站承压较大，需要强援。</p><p>按照平均200万元建一个换电站来算，目前蔚来已经在换电站上投资了近50亿元。而这还不包括蔚来承担换电站的土地租金、电池配备以及还有其他一些额外的支出。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>来源/蔚来官方公众号 镜观台截图</p><p>值得注意的是，换电站作为重资产投资，蔚来也尚未从中盈利。蔚来总裁秦力洪就曾表示，希望共同努力，亏得少一些，尽早盈利。</p><p>蔚来在去年实现营收556.18亿元，毛利率同比下滑4.9个百分点，净亏损进一步扩大43.5%至207.2亿元。公开资料显示，蔚来自2018年至2023年，亏损已超过800亿元。6月6日，蔚来将刊发2024年第一季度业绩，亏损或将持续。</p><p>近期，凤凰网科技报道称，因价格战冲击现金流，蔚来、小鹏延期向供应商付款。媒体同时披露，2023年底时，蔚来汽车需要大约295天的时间来结清其应付账款，其中绝大多数是拖欠供应商的款项，而2021年为197天。</p><p>甚至有专家表示，延迟付款开始对汽车零部件供应商产生连锁反应。三、四级供应商确实受到了影响，因为他们无法将影响转嫁出去。</p><p>重压之下，蔚来积极探寻战略合作伙伴，深筑护城河，以期在竞争日益激烈的新能源汽车“红海”里，有好故事可讲。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p><strong>强援已到位</strong></p><p>事实上，换电对于众多消费者来说，还是香饽饽。</p><p>多位蔚来车主就表示，换电是目前解决新能源用车焦虑的最好办法。比如节假日出行，服务区充电桩排长队，加油站也在排长队，但蔚来车主只需要一首歌的时间，就可以满电出发。</p><p>近期，蔚来全国第800座高速换电站于G3京台高速开化服务区正式上线。</p><p>至此，蔚来高速换电网络已打通包含G1京哈、G2京沪、G3京台等7条纵向高速换电网络，和包含G20青银、G30连霍高速苏陕段等6条横向高速换电网络，以及包含京津冀、长三角、大湾区等11大城市群高速换电网络，它们共同服务于蔚来50万车主。</p><p>目前蔚来换电站日均单量为35-36单，离盈亏平衡的50-60单还有较大距离。仅靠蔚来车主似乎很难扭亏为盈，而更多汽车品牌的加入一定会改写上述数据。</p><p>2023年11月，长安汽车率先官宣将与蔚来合作，两家车企会一同研发可换电的车型，并且首款共用电池包的车型将会在2025年上市。</p><p>同月，吉利与蔚来签署换电战略合作协议，将在换电电池标准、换电技术、换电服务网络建设及运营、换电车型研发及定制、电池资产管理及运营等多个领域展开全面合作。</p><p>进入2024年，奇瑞汽车、江汽集团、路特斯等车企陆续加入。5月，广汽和一汽也火速加入蔚来的“换电联盟”。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>来源/蔚来官方公众号 镜观台截图</p><p>除此之外，皖能集团、壳牌、国网苏州供电公司、安徽交控集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600995\">南网储能</a>等充电补能的产业链相关企业也纷纷驰援。</p><p>“国家队”的加入，自然为蔚来和换电赛道注入了“强心剂”。</p><p>事实上，在换电的赛道上，还有东风、北汽、上汽、吉利和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>等选手，尤其是宁德时代今年先后与滴滴和广汽强强联合，巩固了“巧克力”换电块的市场地位，也将为众多新能源车辆提供高效换电服务。</p><p>开源证券预计，2025年我国换电产业链市场规模有望达到1334亿元。东方证券也认为，到2025年国内换电车型占比有望达30%。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p><strong>抢增程地盘？</strong></p><p>正如李斌在游说雷军考虑换电时所说，从纯电到换电，只需要在底盘做一些适配，单辆车的换电版改造费用仅需1000元左右，而“具备换电能力的车型能吸引更多的消费者，预期市场增量可提升10%-20%。”</p><p>毕竟现阶段，消费者在选购新能源汽车时，更多考虑的还是续航和补能问题。所以，插混和增程车近年来颇受青睐，成为了车企扩大销量，实现扭亏为盈的利器。</p><p>理想就在2023年凭借理想L9、理想L8和理想L7三款增程车，赢得了37.6万个消费者的支持，全年营收1238.5亿元，同比增长173.5%，全年净利润达到118.1亿元，实现了自交付以来的全面盈利。</p><p>问界M7在2024年一季度累计销量超过7万辆，仅凭这一款车，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">赛力斯</a>和华为车BU都已经全部扭亏为盈了。</p><p>随着问界新M5开启全国交付，问界M7、问界M9的持续火热，赛力斯很有可能在2024年再次刷新盈利的上限。</p><p>也基于此，奇瑞和阿维塔今年首次入局增程车，试图在新能源车的市场占据一席之位，而也有媒体报道，小米汽车已确定研发增程车，计划在2025年推出。</p><p>据易车网数据，在当前市场21款增程式新能源汽车中，除了理想L6、L7、问界M7、M9等车型销量持续领先外，超过一半的增程车并没有亮眼表现。不过，“增程联盟”的实力也不容小觑。</p><p>谈到换电的优势时，李斌也专门对比了增程和插混车。李斌认为，增程和插混都安装了两套动力系统，全产品生命周期的保养和维修成本并不低。而在日常用车过程中，频频充电也会给车主带来时间成本问题。</p><p>另外，李斌也提到，增程器和一套增程系统的价格约为1.5万元，按100万辆车的保有量计算，用户将支出150亿元。这些钱可以新增1万座换电站，不仅可以让换电更为方便，解除续航焦虑和电池安全隐患外，换电站还有储能功能，削峰填谷，节约用电成本，还能帮助电网消纳更多风电光伏等清洁能。</p><p>所以按照李斌的说法，换电站带来的市场增量，一部分就来自插混和增程车。</p><p>不过，目前的“换电联盟”在数量上还远低于“增程联盟”，要将后者打败，还需要不断吸纳新鲜力量。下一家和蔚来结盟的车企，会是谁呢？</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2024年，换电抢了增程的风头\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-27 09:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8Zv56dehZeK><strong>镜观台</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文 | 惠鹏权恐怕连蔚来董事长兼CEO李斌也没想到，换电战略合作的谈判如此顺利。去年11月20日，李斌在回答内部员工“换电业务是否可持续经营”的问题时表示，明天（11月21日）会发布第一家合作，后面还有4-5家在谈。“第一家”就是长安汽车。此后一发不可收拾，半年的时间，除了长安汽车，吉利、奇瑞、江汽集团、路特斯、广汽和中国一汽先后加入了蔚来的“换电联盟”。而“换电联盟”还有一个潜在的盟友，即...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8Zv56dehZeK\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","BK1523":"武汉本地概念股","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) 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镜观台截图按照蔚来的部署，2024年要在2023年2316座换电站的基础上，再增加1000座。截至2024年4月30日，蔚来已布局2411座换电站。随着长安汽车等主流车企加盟，换电站的开建速度只会更快。蔚来的换电护城河也会越来越深。但李斌自然不满足于此，近日又“怂恿”小米董事长兼CEO雷军考虑一下换电。雷军并未做出正面回应，但有理由相信，还会有下一家车企加入“换电联盟”。如果说2023年是增程车的元年，那么，2024年，换电的风头正劲。换电须提速虽然蔚来是国内布局充电桩最多的汽车品牌，截至4月30日，已超过2.2万根，但提起蔚来，消费者的第一反应还是换电。李斌就表示，换电是蔚来的护城河，“但蔚来从第一天开始做换电起就决定开放”。公开资料显示，蔚来第一座换电站位于深圳南山科技园，2018年5月20日正式投入运营，至今已过去了6年。那为什么5、6年后，蔚来才和其他车企开启换电站的战略合作呢？就有业内专家向镜观台表示，一方面蔚来换电在很长时间内都不被看好；另一方面，蔚来持续亏损让其在新建换电站承压较大，需要强援。按照平均200万元建一个换电站来算，目前蔚来已经在换电站上投资了近50亿元。而这还不包括蔚来承担换电站的土地租金、电池配备以及还有其他一些额外的支出。来源/蔚来官方公众号 镜观台截图值得注意的是，换电站作为重资产投资，蔚来也尚未从中盈利。蔚来总裁秦力洪就曾表示，希望共同努力，亏得少一些，尽早盈利。蔚来在去年实现营收556.18亿元，毛利率同比下滑4.9个百分点，净亏损进一步扩大43.5%至207.2亿元。公开资料显示，蔚来自2018年至2023年，亏损已超过800亿元。6月6日，蔚来将刊发2024年第一季度业绩，亏损或将持续。近期，凤凰网科技报道称，因价格战冲击现金流，蔚来、小鹏延期向供应商付款。媒体同时披露，2023年底时，蔚来汽车需要大约295天的时间来结清其应付账款，其中绝大多数是拖欠供应商的款项，而2021年为197天。甚至有专家表示，延迟付款开始对汽车零部件供应商产生连锁反应。三、四级供应商确实受到了影响，因为他们无法将影响转嫁出去。重压之下，蔚来积极探寻战略合作伙伴，深筑护城河，以期在竞争日益激烈的新能源汽车“红海”里，有好故事可讲。强援已到位事实上，换电对于众多消费者来说，还是香饽饽。多位蔚来车主就表示，换电是目前解决新能源用车焦虑的最好办法。比如节假日出行，服务区充电桩排长队，加油站也在排长队，但蔚来车主只需要一首歌的时间，就可以满电出发。近期，蔚来全国第800座高速换电站于G3京台高速开化服务区正式上线。至此，蔚来高速换电网络已打通包含G1京哈、G2京沪、G3京台等7条纵向高速换电网络，和包含G20青银、G30连霍高速苏陕段等6条横向高速换电网络，以及包含京津冀、长三角、大湾区等11大城市群高速换电网络，它们共同服务于蔚来50万车主。目前蔚来换电站日均单量为35-36单，离盈亏平衡的50-60单还有较大距离。仅靠蔚来车主似乎很难扭亏为盈，而更多汽车品牌的加入一定会改写上述数据。2023年11月，长安汽车率先官宣将与蔚来合作，两家车企会一同研发可换电的车型，并且首款共用电池包的车型将会在2025年上市。同月，吉利与蔚来签署换电战略合作协议，将在换电电池标准、换电技术、换电服务网络建设及运营、换电车型研发及定制、电池资产管理及运营等多个领域展开全面合作。进入2024年，奇瑞汽车、江汽集团、路特斯等车企陆续加入。5月，广汽和一汽也火速加入蔚来的“换电联盟”。来源/蔚来官方公众号 镜观台截图除此之外，皖能集团、壳牌、国网苏州供电公司、安徽交控集团、南网储能等充电补能的产业链相关企业也纷纷驰援。“国家队”的加入，自然为蔚来和换电赛道注入了“强心剂”。事实上，在换电的赛道上，还有东风、北汽、上汽、吉利和宁德时代等选手，尤其是宁德时代今年先后与滴滴和广汽强强联合，巩固了“巧克力”换电块的市场地位，也将为众多新能源车辆提供高效换电服务。开源证券预计，2025年我国换电产业链市场规模有望达到1334亿元。东方证券也认为，到2025年国内换电车型占比有望达30%。抢增程地盘？正如李斌在游说雷军考虑换电时所说，从纯电到换电，只需要在底盘做一些适配，单辆车的换电版改造费用仅需1000元左右，而“具备换电能力的车型能吸引更多的消费者，预期市场增量可提升10%-20%。”毕竟现阶段，消费者在选购新能源汽车时，更多考虑的还是续航和补能问题。所以，插混和增程车近年来颇受青睐，成为了车企扩大销量，实现扭亏为盈的利器。理想就在2023年凭借理想L9、理想L8和理想L7三款增程车，赢得了37.6万个消费者的支持，全年营收1238.5亿元，同比增长173.5%，全年净利润达到118.1亿元，实现了自交付以来的全面盈利。问界M7在2024年一季度累计销量超过7万辆，仅凭这一款车，赛力斯和华为车BU都已经全部扭亏为盈了。随着问界新M5开启全国交付，问界M7、问界M9的持续火热，赛力斯很有可能在2024年再次刷新盈利的上限。也基于此，奇瑞和阿维塔今年首次入局增程车，试图在新能源车的市场占据一席之位，而也有媒体报道，小米汽车已确定研发增程车，计划在2025年推出。据易车网数据，在当前市场21款增程式新能源汽车中，除了理想L6、L7、问界M7、M9等车型销量持续领先外，超过一半的增程车并没有亮眼表现。不过，“增程联盟”的实力也不容小觑。谈到换电的优势时，李斌也专门对比了增程和插混车。李斌认为，增程和插混都安装了两套动力系统，全产品生命周期的保养和维修成本并不低。而在日常用车过程中，频频充电也会给车主带来时间成本问题。另外，李斌也提到，增程器和一套增程系统的价格约为1.5万元，按100万辆车的保有量计算，用户将支出150亿元。这些钱可以新增1万座换电站，不仅可以让换电更为方便，解除续航焦虑和电池安全隐患外，换电站还有储能功能，削峰填谷，节约用电成本，还能帮助电网消纳更多风电光伏等清洁能。所以按照李斌的说法，换电站带来的市场增量，一部分就来自插混和增程车。不过，目前的“换电联盟”在数量上还远低于“增程联盟”，要将后者打败，还需要不断吸纳新鲜力量。下一家和蔚来结盟的车企，会是谁呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309070149337256,"gmtCreate":1716484415622,"gmtModify":1716484417099,"author":{"id":"3535535770162265","authorId":"3535535770162265","name":"Alex_0099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1a58594ee71017c239db9e4dfea780","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202404260251558b540613&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2430825349","content_text":"巴克莱：下调理想汽车(LI.US)评级，由增持调整至持股观望评级, 目标价由39.00美元调整至25.00美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297927552266528,"gmtCreate":1713764954977,"gmtModify":1713764956186,"author":{"id":"3535535770162265","authorId":"3535535770162265","name":"Alex_0099","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1a58594ee71017c239db9e4dfea780","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$理想汽车-W(02015)$ &nbsp;</a>‌2个月降到50港币，不是不可能啊","listText":"‌<a 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