早上看到X上有博主发_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

熊猫校长 Ming

早上看到X上有博主发这条推

今天的科技股和 AI 股下杀的原因：

1. 30年期美债利率上升（宏观）

2. Anthropic 营收增速放缓（行业）

3. 美伊战事不确定性（地缘）

没了，第二条是关键。

我赞同这三点是昨晚股价下杀原因

但我的观点是

第二点是错判

对云厂来说 Anthropic 营收放缓

但是由于开源模型的大幅跟上

需要的 Token 反而在增加

云厂的客户只是从 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 转到更多客户

AI 的需求在增速

云厂的资本开支会继续

硬科技的需求也还会继续

实际上是

利好云厂和硬科技

利好存储和光

$美光科技(MU)$ $SK海力士(SKHY)$ $迈威尔科技(MRVL)$

三大指数逼近新高，这轮涨势还该追吗？

纳指100 QQQ 今日微跌约 0.14%、纳指跌约 0.28%，在连创新高后于高位震荡。卖方观点分裂——一方看"标普出现看涨异动、市场蓄势再冲",另一方警告"本周或迎来重大波动率切换、创新高后追涨需谨慎"。本周还有沃尔玛财报与零售数据待验证。高位震荡的当下，是继续追高还是先落袋观望？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

纳指起起伏伏
08-19
纳指起起伏伏
逻辑很受启发,不过开源大规模普及之后，单 token 单价内卷，即便总 token 在涨，如果云厂商每单位算力赚到的钱变少，资本开支的力度会不会打折扣?
- 日光城的幸运游侠:
  单价持续下降，恰恰说明整体规模在迅速增长。
  算力依然供不应求，旧代际硬件价格坚挺反证资本开支并未折旧，而是带来额外增利。
  LLM模型逻辑是token，而视频模型看时长，利润空间远高于LLM，有利于资本投入更快回收。
  对云厂商而言，当前的资本投入类似于电力时代早期，基础设施固定成本是一次性投入，拉长周期后过了成本回收期(很快)都是利润。
- 熊猫校长 Ming:
  量大应用普及快

发表看法

3

6

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