价值投资为王
04-16
劝你别抄底小米，听了吗？巨头都说了，存储芯片紧缺持续到2027年，这不点名了啥时候可以抄底吗？急啥？
$小米集团-W(01810)$
@价值投资为王：
劝你别抄底小米！
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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Inmoretion
04-16
Inmoretion
所以要到明年才能抄底？
价值投资为王
:
起码今年3季度再看
姜智悦
04-16
姜智悦
现在不抄底还等到明年?
价值投资为王
回复
姜智悦
:
会的
姜智悦
回复
价值投资为王
:
不可能跌破30的
价值投资为王
:
看估值咯，啥时候到1倍市销率再说
什么也没有了～
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target=\"_blank\">三季报超预期，小米被错杀了？</a>》。</p>\n<p>小米大跌之后，网上出现不少抄底的声音，在此，我劝你先别急着出手。</p>\n<p>目前，小米共有4大主业：手机、IoT、互联网服务和汽车。其中，手机业务占比最大，为41%；IoT占比24%；汽车26%；互联网服务8%。</p>\n<p>从三季报来看，手机业务连续2个季度下滑；IoT增速大幅放缓；互联网服务一如既往的稳定；汽车业务因为历史基数低，同比暴增！</p>\n<p>如果没有汽车业务遮掩门面，小米三季报会很难看。</p>\n<p>目前来看，手机业务可能持续疲软，还面临存储芯片涨价压力；IoT去年在国家补贴下，基数太高，易降难增；互联网服务保持稳定；汽车业务仍会大增，即使小米汽车风波不断。</p>\n<p>从估值上看，小米当前的市销率为2倍，对比历史，处于历史高位：</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f28cbf7ab2253704afbb5341f07edce\" tg-width=\"1367\" tg-height=\"351\"></p>\n<p>上一轮小米手机、IoT业务下行时，小米市销率估值最低到了0.63倍，考虑到2022年时的宏观大环境远比现在及可预期的未来要恶劣，假设给予一定的估值溢价，这轮下行周期，小米的传统业务（手机、IoT、互联网）就给1倍的市销率估值吧。</p>\n<p>据此计算，老业务的价值是3600亿！</p>\n<p>小米汽车的估值就参考小鹏和零跑，前者市销率2倍，后者1.3倍，小米折中，按1.5倍算吧：</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e79a2ec2b90ebc95948f7099aaae03\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"513\"></p>\n<p>假设小米汽车明年销量60万，单价维持在现在的26万左右，汽车业务的收入可以达到1600亿，给予2400亿的估值。</p>\n<p>明年汽车业务也面临存储涨价及补贴退坡的影响，60万的目标也是有压力的。</p>\n<p>目前，分析师预计26年手机业务营收2054亿、IoT为1486亿、互联网服务411亿、汽车1688亿，据此测算，小米再次迎来下行周期的话，6500亿市值的时候才有性价比。</p>\n<p>如果小米后续业绩恶化程度低于2022年，后者汽车业务增速超预期，小米的估值会有所上升，但目前2倍的市销率，在手机业务下滑、IoT放缓的情况下，谈不上抄底。</p>\n<p>即使你看好小米，也应该在手机业务止跌、IoT业务企稳之后再谈，基本面不好转，现在抄底，也是浪费时间！</p>\n<p>一点想法，仅供参考！</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>周二晚上，小米发布了三季报，次日股价大跌4.8%，跌破40港元大关！ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a></p>\n<p>今日，小米再跌3.6%，较历史高点下跌40%，成为港股科技股中表现最差的巨头！</p>\n<p>这波下跌的原因我在小米三季报解读中有详细的解释，感兴趣的朋友可以移步查阅《<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/501572458061928\" target=\"_blank\">三季报超预期，小米被错杀了？</a>》。</p>\n<p>小米大跌之后，网上出现不少抄底的声音，在此，我劝你先别急着出手。</p>\n<p>目前，小米共有4大主业：手机、IoT、互联网服务和汽车。其中，手机业务占比最大，为41%；IoT占比24%；汽车26%；互联网服务8%。</p>\n<p>从三季报来看，手机业务连续2个季度下滑；IoT增速大幅放缓；互联网服务一如既往的稳定；汽车业务因为历史基数低，同比暴增！</p>\n<p>如果没有汽车业务遮掩门面，小米三季报会很难看。</p>\n<p>目前来看，手机业务可能持续疲软，还面临存储芯片涨价压力；IoT去年在国家补贴下，基数太高，易降难增；互联网服务保持稳定；汽车业务仍会大增，即使小米汽车风波不断。</p>\n<p>从估值上看，小米当前的市销率为2倍，对比历史，处于历史高位：</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f28cbf7ab2253704afbb5341f07edce\" tg-width=\"1367\" tg-height=\"351\"></p>\n<p>上一轮小米手机、IoT业务下行时，小米市销率估值最低到了0.63倍，考虑到2022年时的宏观大环境远比现在及可预期的未来要恶劣，假设给予一定的估值溢价，这轮下行周期，小米的传统业务（手机、IoT、互联网）就给1倍的市销率估值吧。</p>\n<p>据此计算，老业务的价值是3600亿！</p>\n<p>小米汽车的估值就参考小鹏和零跑，前者市销率2倍，后者1.3倍，小米折中，按1.5倍算吧：</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e79a2ec2b90ebc95948f7099aaae03\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"513\"></p>\n<p>假设小米汽车明年销量60万，单价维持在现在的26万左右，汽车业务的收入可以达到1600亿，给予2400亿的估值。</p>\n<p>明年汽车业务也面临存储涨价及补贴退坡的影响，60万的目标也是有压力的。</p>\n<p>目前，分析师预计26年手机业务营收2054亿、IoT为1486亿、互联网服务411亿、汽车1688亿，据此测算，小米再次迎来下行周期的话，6500亿市值的时候才有性价比。</p>\n<p>如果小米后续业绩恶化程度低于2022年，后者汽车业务增速超预期，小米的估值会有所上升，但目前2倍的市销率，在手机业务下滑、IoT放缓的情况下，谈不上抄底。</p>\n<p>即使你看好小米，也应该在手机业务止跌、IoT业务企稳之后再谈，基本面不好转，现在抄底，也是浪费时间！</p>\n<p>一点想法，仅供参考！</p></body></html>","text":"周二晚上，小米发布了三季报，次日股价大跌4.8%，跌破40港元大关！ $小米集团-W(01810)$ 今日，小米再跌3.6%，较历史高点下跌40%，成为港股科技股中表现最差的巨头！ 这波下跌的原因我在小米三季报解读中有详细的解释，感兴趣的朋友可以移步查阅《三季报超预期，小米被错杀了？》。 小米大跌之后，网上出现不少抄底的声音，在此，我劝你先别急着出手。 目前，小米共有4大主业：手机、IoT、互联网服务和汽车。其中，手机业务占比最大，为41%；IoT占比24%；汽车26%；互联网服务8%。 从三季报来看，手机业务连续2个季度下滑；IoT增速大幅放缓；互联网服务一如既往的稳定；汽车业务因为历史基数低，同比暴增！ 如果没有汽车业务遮掩门面，小米三季报会很难看。 目前来看，手机业务可能持续疲软，还面临存储芯片涨价压力；IoT去年在国家补贴下，基数太高，易降难增；互联网服务保持稳定；汽车业务仍会大增，即使小米汽车风波不断。 从估值上看，小米当前的市销率为2倍，对比历史，处于历史高位： 上一轮小米手机、IoT业务下行时，小米市销率估值最低到了0.63倍，考虑到2022年时的宏观大环境远比现在及可预期的未来要恶劣，假设给予一定的估值溢价，这轮下行周期，小米的传统业务（手机、IoT、互联网）就给1倍的市销率估值吧。 据此计算，老业务的价值是3600亿！ 小米汽车的估值就参考小鹏和零跑，前者市销率2倍，后者1.3倍，小米折中，按1.5倍算吧： 假设小米汽车明年销量60万，单价维持在现在的26万左右，汽车业务的收入可以达到1600亿，给予2400亿的估值。 明年汽车业务也面临存储涨价及补贴退坡的影响，60万的目标也是有压力的。 目前，分析师预计26年手机业务营收2054亿、IoT为1486亿、互联网服务411亿、汽车1688亿，据此测算，小米再次迎来下行周期的话，6500亿市值的时候才有性价比。 如果小米后续业绩恶化程度低于2022年，后者汽车业务增速超预期，小米的估值会有所上升，但目前2倍的市销率，在手机业务下滑、IoT放缓的情况下，谈不上抄底。 即使你看好小米，也应该在手机业务止跌、IoT业务企稳之后再谈，基本面不好转，现在抄底，也是浪费时间！ 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