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黄油手11
05-10 13:47
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉的E earning可能保不住。一季度销量下降,二季度开始价格下降。如果没有长期且突出的智能驾驶做背书,它很快被中日欧车企推下神坛。目前一季度毛利已经显著下降,二季度又被迫降价,你觉得的利润会不会加速下滑。小米比亚迪理想问界蔚来在20万以上电车都拥护者明显多起来了,再观察一下5月零售数量和份额,可能大家就会清楚的。靠电车技术以及比能替代人工费的辅助驾驶,特斯拉难以长期稳定赚钱。现在是新硬件(英伟达芯片等)以及大模型理论兴起,给了自动驾驶新的可能。而传统车企目前难以在信息技术上抗衡,能抗衡的又没有造车。他有机会领先一段时间,股票也可能大幅反弹。随着谷歌亚马逊微软阿里百度华为等或直接下场或提供核心技术,未来特斯拉面临的竞争很难预料。
黄油手11
05-09
$商汤-W(00020)$
还记得百度是怎么样在国内发展壮大的吗?还记得那个节点吗?商汤的大机会要来了
黄油手11
05-08
$小米集团-W(01810)$
看到全网再喷小米空调,说明小米空调成了。就像极氪围剿小米汽车,最后还是会被反杀。
黄油手11
05-08
$苹果(AAPL)$
刚看了一下发布会,给我的感觉就是苹果真的把产品做到了极致,就是价格有点贵!
黄油手11
05-06
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
B站管理层根本不行,十年来一事无成[捂脸]现在也是浪费时间。拥有整个年轻群体,无所适从。激励计划,给米哈游,明日方舟倒流,扩大ip影响力,自己ip价值为0。陈某人搞游戏直播,一事无成。李某人搞ogv,一事无成。大家投资者不要浪费时间了。思想和能力出了问题,再多机会,再好机会,也是枉然。希望b站游戏成功的人,洗洗睡吧……
黄油手11
04-18
$美光科技(MU)$
🇺🇸计划向三星电子提供至多64亿美元资助,以扩大芯片生产,下一个预计美光科技
黄油手11
04-17
腾讯未来5年预测
$腾讯控股(00700)$
作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右
腾讯未来5年预测
黄油手11
04-17
腾讯未来5年预测
$腾讯控股(00700)$
作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右
腾讯未来5年预测
黄油手11
04-17
$微软(MSFT)$
微软和OpenAI的天作之合,未来合作越来越多,企业也会越来越好吧
黄油手11
04-12
$台积电(TSM)$
台积电发布了1季度的经营情况,应该说是符合预期的,1季度销售额同增16.5%。2023年台积电销售额704.25亿美元,2024年假设增长率为23%,净利率维持38.75%。假设给与2024年25倍PE,则704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.66*25/51.86=161.81,较目前股价147,161/147=1.095,有差不多10%左右的空间。在美股大盘稳定的情况下,可以试一下。如果给与23倍PE,704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.6631562*23/51.86=148.86。那简单说,现在就看市场情绪了。
黄油手11
04-11
$中国天瑞水泥(01252)$
这家公司真正让人明白了“买股票就是买公司”这句话的真正意义。
黄油手11
04-09
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
最近的AMD和NVDA只有做点sell put sell call 玩玩更合适
黄油手11
04-08
$苹果(AAPL)$
做任何生意都逃不过赚差价炒股也不例外,即使靠做空赚钱,赚的也只不过是反向差价而已。炒股简单的说就是在下跌中买入别人抛售的,在上涨时卖给追高的。中间的差价就是利润。只要每次下跌都有钱可买,那么每次上涨就一定能够赚到部分钱。直至股价涨过最高一笔买入的价格。股神巴菲特的胜出就是无论股价跌多低,手上仍然有大量现金,而且很多现金还是不需要成本的,因为他收购有保险公司。
黄油手11
04-03
$美光科技(MU)$
TechInsights认为:美光科技有望获得 CHIPS 法案援助,金额预计略低于英特尔。原因是HBM是先进半导体制造的一个关键要素,如果没有 HBM,封装就没有什么价值。
黄油手11
04-03
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
针对卡普离职新闻,我查了很久都没看到,但依正常流程,应该会发布新闻告知,有的是当天公布,有的是隔几天公布,我认为就等这礼拜看看,若没新闻,应该100%是谣言及假消息,但我认为,一家公司不可能因为一个人离职就出问题,除非关键技术是在他手上,不然换个人当执行长,说不定公司更有发展性,以上仅供参考!
黄油手11
04-02
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
什么时候公布销量,让我死个痛快,每天这么温水煮青蛙真的好离谱,今年特斯拉就这么样吧,跌个 65% 吧和前年一样
黄油手11
04-02
$腾讯控股(00700)$
腾讯23年分红320亿,24年计划回购1000亿。这两个加起来等于一年的利润全部分出去了。有人知道这么大回购量的原因是什么吗?能说说你的看法吗?
黄油手11
04-01
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
上周末大火的base,完全没体现到目前的价格里
黄油手11
03-29
$腾讯控股(00700)$
腾10亿每天10亿,折合每股每天回购0.1元。6万股就是相当于每天回购6000块, 腾讯每个回购日,帮我买了6000块。 不涨的话我的持股比例持续上升。直到宇宙的尽头。
黄油手11
03-27
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
木有深刻意识到Coinbase的稀缺性,活该我赚不到大钱,气呀。
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看到全网再喷小米空调,说明小米空调成了。就像极氪围剿小米汽车,最后还是会被反杀。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看到全网再喷小米空调,说明小米空调成了。就像极氪围剿小米汽车,最后还是会被反杀。","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 看到全网再喷小米空调,说明小米空调成了。就像极氪围剿小米汽车,最后还是会被反杀。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59b16d4e916e3a75c4ceadf8f285818","width":"690","height":"668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303771070115864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303366485516440,"gmtCreate":1715099517377,"gmtModify":1715099521742,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 刚看了一下发布会,给我的感觉就是苹果真的把产品做到了极致,就是价格有点贵!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 刚看了一下发布会,给我的感觉就是苹果真的把产品做到了极致,就是价格有点贵!","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 刚看了一下发布会,给我的感觉就是苹果真的把产品做到了极致,就是价格有点贵!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bca85bcff6ddad2aadbbe402e64ddb","width":"875","height":"496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303366485516440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302955124068504,"gmtCreate":1714999087335,"gmtModify":1715000729498,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> B站管理层根本不行,十年来一事无成[捂脸]现在也是浪费时间。拥有整个年轻群体,无所适从。激励计划,给米哈游,明日方舟倒流,扩大ip影响力,自己ip价值为0。陈某人搞游戏直播,一事无成。李某人搞ogv,一事无成。大家投资者不要浪费时间了。思想和能力出了问题,再多机会,再好机会,也是枉然。希望b站游戏成功的人,洗洗睡吧……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> B站管理层根本不行,十年来一事无成[捂脸]现在也是浪费时间。拥有整个年轻群体,无所适从。激励计划,给米哈游,明日方舟倒流,扩大ip影响力,自己ip价值为0。陈某人搞游戏直播,一事无成。李某人搞ogv,一事无成。大家投资者不要浪费时间了。思想和能力出了问题,再多机会,再好机会,也是枉然。希望b站游戏成功的人,洗洗睡吧……","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ B站管理层根本不行,十年来一事无成[捂脸]现在也是浪费时间。拥有整个年轻群体,无所适从。激励计划,给米哈游,明日方舟倒流,扩大ip影响力,自己ip价值为0。陈某人搞游戏直播,一事无成。李某人搞ogv,一事无成。大家投资者不要浪费时间了。思想和能力出了问题,再多机会,再好机会,也是枉然。希望b站游戏成功的人,洗洗睡吧……","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381edf6ccdbc71fda8ccade401ffc04b","width":"854","height":"558"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302955124068504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296668788322352,"gmtCreate":1713448234053,"gmtModify":1713448235844,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🇺🇸计划向三星电子提供至多64亿美元资助,以扩大芯片生产,下一个预计美光科技","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🇺🇸计划向三星电子提供至多64亿美元资助,以扩大芯片生产,下一个预计美光科技","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 🇺🇸计划向三星电子提供至多64亿美元资助,以扩大芯片生产,下一个预计美光科技","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296668788322352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296296263413777,"gmtCreate":1713357190063,"gmtModify":1713362247193,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯未来5年预测","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296296263413777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4104748128179940","authorId":"4104748128179940","name":"保险王丁","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"腾讯是国内唯一一个知道长期持有的股票","text":"腾讯是国内唯一一个知道长期持有的股票","html":"腾讯是国内唯一一个知道长期持有的股票"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296296263413776,"gmtCreate":1713357190063,"gmtModify":1713362245392,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯未来5年预测","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296296263413776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296233021149200,"gmtCreate":1713341750057,"gmtModify":1713341755147,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 微软和OpenAI的天作之合,未来合作越来越多,企业也会越来越好吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 微软和OpenAI的天作之合,未来合作越来越多,企业也会越来越好吧","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 微软和OpenAI的天作之合,未来合作越来越多,企业也会越来越好吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee381c298836306ee471495ea09303e3","width":"881","height":"663"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296233021149200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294485917868120,"gmtCreate":1712921880855,"gmtModify":1712926713145,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 台积电发布了1季度的经营情况,应该说是符合预期的,1季度销售额同增16.5%。2023年台积电销售额704.25亿美元,2024年假设增长率为23%,净利率维持38.75%。假设给与2024年25倍PE,则704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.66*25/51.86=161.81,较目前股价147,161/147=1.095,有差不多10%左右的空间。在美股大盘稳定的情况下,可以试一下。如果给与23倍PE,704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.6631562*23/51.86=148.86。那简单说,现在就看市场情绪了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 台积电发布了1季度的经营情况,应该说是符合预期的,1季度销售额同增16.5%。2023年台积电销售额704.25亿美元,2024年假设增长率为23%,净利率维持38.75%。假设给与2024年25倍PE,则704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.66*25/51.86=161.81,较目前股价147,161/147=1.095,有差不多10%左右的空间。在美股大盘稳定的情况下,可以试一下。如果给与23倍PE,704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.6631562*23/51.86=148.86。那简单说,现在就看市场情绪了。","text":"$台积电(TSM)$ 台积电发布了1季度的经营情况,应该说是符合预期的,1季度销售额同增16.5%。2023年台积电销售额704.25亿美元,2024年假设增长率为23%,净利率维持38.75%。假设给与2024年25倍PE,则704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.66*25/51.86=161.81,较目前股价147,161/147=1.095,有差不多10%左右的空间。在美股大盘稳定的情况下,可以试一下。如果给与23倍PE,704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.6631562*23/51.86=148.86。那简单说,现在就看市场情绪了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43475452286e0f9c0a93abfd89ccf394","width":"420","height":"480"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294485917868120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468338281798142","authorId":"3468338281798142","name":"kissby","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"台积电这两天的跌有点莫名其妙,令人担心","text":"台积电这两天的跌有点莫名其妙,令人担心","html":"台积电这两天的跌有点莫名其妙,令人担心"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294177432870928,"gmtCreate":1712848934411,"gmtModify":1712848939605,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01252\">$中国天瑞水泥(01252)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这家公司真正让人明白了“买股票就是买公司”这句话的真正意义。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01252\">$中国天瑞水泥(01252)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这家公司真正让人明白了“买股票就是买公司”这句话的真正意义。","text":"$中国天瑞水泥(01252)$ 这家公司真正让人明白了“买股票就是买公司”这句话的真正意义。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e3d4bb80af3bebe2609e40078be22f","width":"669","height":"513"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294177432870928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3446357103211526","authorId":"3446357103211526","name":"huamuyin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a91bbc7028ec788fad68dc9749c7c55","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"今天还停盘吗?不是说短暂停盘最多2天吗?","text":"今天还停盘吗?不是说短暂停盘最多2天吗?","html":"今天还停盘吗?不是说短暂停盘最多2天吗?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293490526629952,"gmtCreate":1712676313183,"gmtModify":1712676319235,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>最近的AMD和NVDA只有做点sell put sell call 玩玩更合适","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>最近的AMD和NVDA只有做点sell put sell call 玩玩更合适","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 最近的AMD和NVDA只有做点sell put sell call 玩玩更合适","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e15f36dac4f22425a2f508de67783f","width":"480","height":"360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293490526629952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293137842188440,"gmtCreate":1712590261108,"gmtModify":1712590267996,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 做任何生意都逃不过赚差价炒股也不例外,即使靠做空赚钱,赚的也只不过是反向差价而已。炒股简单的说就是在下跌中买入别人抛售的,在上涨时卖给追高的。中间的差价就是利润。只要每次下跌都有钱可买,那么每次上涨就一定能够赚到部分钱。直至股价涨过最高一笔买入的价格。股神巴菲特的胜出就是无论股价跌多低,手上仍然有大量现金,而且很多现金还是不需要成本的,因为他收购有保险公司。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 做任何生意都逃不过赚差价炒股也不例外,即使靠做空赚钱,赚的也只不过是反向差价而已。炒股简单的说就是在下跌中买入别人抛售的,在上涨时卖给追高的。中间的差价就是利润。只要每次下跌都有钱可买,那么每次上涨就一定能够赚到部分钱。直至股价涨过最高一笔买入的价格。股神巴菲特的胜出就是无论股价跌多低,手上仍然有大量现金,而且很多现金还是不需要成本的,因为他收购有保险公司。","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 做任何生意都逃不过赚差价炒股也不例外,即使靠做空赚钱,赚的也只不过是反向差价而已。炒股简单的说就是在下跌中买入别人抛售的,在上涨时卖给追高的。中间的差价就是利润。只要每次下跌都有钱可买,那么每次上涨就一定能够赚到部分钱。直至股价涨过最高一笔买入的价格。股神巴菲特的胜出就是无论股价跌多低,手上仍然有大量现金,而且很多现金还是不需要成本的,因为他收购有保险公司。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5916f74c932855fd59b6b0cd4f7a9a19","width":"930","height":"650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293137842188440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291342752280592,"gmtCreate":1712150703867,"gmtModify":1712150706280,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> TechInsights认为:美光科技有望获得 CHIPS 法案援助,金额预计略低于英特尔。原因是HBM是先进半导体制造的一个关键要素,如果没有 HBM,封装就没有什么价值。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> TechInsights认为:美光科技有望获得 CHIPS 法案援助,金额预计略低于英特尔。原因是HBM是先进半导体制造的一个关键要素,如果没有 HBM,封装就没有什么价值。","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ TechInsights认为:美光科技有望获得 CHIPS 法案援助,金额预计略低于英特尔。原因是HBM是先进半导体制造的一个关键要素,如果没有 HBM,封装就没有什么价值。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291342752280592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291338209685520,"gmtCreate":1712149594835,"gmtModify":1712149596727,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 针对卡普离职新闻,我查了很久都没看到,但依正常流程,应该会发布新闻告知,有的是当天公布,有的是隔几天公布,我认为就等这礼拜看看,若没新闻,应该100%是谣言及假消息,但我认为,一家公司不可能因为一个人离职就出问题,除非关键技术是在他手上,不然换个人当执行长,说不定公司更有发展性,以上仅供参考!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 针对卡普离职新闻,我查了很久都没看到,但依正常流程,应该会发布新闻告知,有的是当天公布,有的是隔几天公布,我认为就等这礼拜看看,若没新闻,应该100%是谣言及假消息,但我认为,一家公司不可能因为一个人离职就出问题,除非关键技术是在他手上,不然换个人当执行长,说不定公司更有发展性,以上仅供参考!","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 针对卡普离职新闻,我查了很久都没看到,但依正常流程,应该会发布新闻告知,有的是当天公布,有的是隔几天公布,我认为就等这礼拜看看,若没新闻,应该100%是谣言及假消息,但我认为,一家公司不可能因为一个人离职就出问题,除非关键技术是在他手上,不然换个人当执行长,说不定公司更有发展性,以上仅供参考!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291338209685520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290893797425192,"gmtCreate":1712041210137,"gmtModify":1712041213620,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 什么时候公布销量,让我死个痛快,每天这么温水煮青蛙真的好离谱,今年特斯拉就这么样吧,跌个 65% 吧和前年一样","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 什么时候公布销量,让我死个痛快,每天这么温水煮青蛙真的好离谱,今年特斯拉就这么样吧,跌个 65% 吧和前年一样","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 什么时候公布销量,让我死个痛快,每天这么温水煮青蛙真的好离谱,今年特斯拉就这么样吧,跌个 65% 吧和前年一样","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd40d98bed75c6d1fef28b8ddfce118b","width":"339","height":"385"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290893797425192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290674777698344,"gmtCreate":1711987738524,"gmtModify":1711987739971,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 腾讯23年分红320亿,24年计划回购1000亿。这两个加起来等于一年的利润全部分出去了。有人知道这么大回购量的原因是什么吗?能说说你的看法吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 腾讯23年分红320亿,24年计划回购1000亿。这两个加起来等于一年的利润全部分出去了。有人知道这么大回购量的原因是什么吗?能说说你的看法吗?","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 腾讯23年分红320亿,24年计划回购1000亿。这两个加起来等于一年的利润全部分出去了。有人知道这么大回购量的原因是什么吗?能说说你的看法吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290674777698344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290662388772904,"gmtCreate":1711984713884,"gmtModify":1711984715163,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 上周末大火的base,完全没体现到目前的价格里","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 上周末大火的base,完全没体现到目前的价格里","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 上周末大火的base,完全没体现到目前的价格里","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290662388772904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":289257570553896,"gmtCreate":1711641740686,"gmtModify":1711641747007,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 腾10亿每天10亿,折合每股每天回购0.1元。6万股就是相当于每天回购6000块, 腾讯每个回购日,帮我买了6000块。 不涨的话我的持股比例持续上升。直到宇宙的尽头。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 腾10亿每天10亿,折合每股每天回购0.1元。6万股就是相当于每天回购6000块, 腾讯每个回购日,帮我买了6000块。 不涨的话我的持股比例持续上升。直到宇宙的尽头。","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 腾10亿每天10亿,折合每股每天回购0.1元。6万股就是相当于每天回购6000块, 腾讯每个回购日,帮我买了6000块。 不涨的话我的持股比例持续上升。直到宇宙的尽头。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b266791a8a5aa3b13fd480e7660e8b31","width":"640","height":"560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/289257570553896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288880595030056,"gmtCreate":1711549705646,"gmtModify":1711549711378,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 木有深刻意识到Coinbase的稀缺性,活该我赚不到大钱,气呀。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 木有深刻意识到Coinbase的稀缺性,活该我赚不到大钱,气呀。","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 木有深刻意识到Coinbase的稀缺性,活该我赚不到大钱,气呀。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4545651db55478feded82eb065b621","width":"480","height":"480"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288880595030056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":278946256531528,"gmtCreate":1709133089962,"gmtModify":1709133093485,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 思考了好多年,查阅了好多资料视频,今天终于理解了AI的本质,AI到底是什么。其实,计算机程序的第一个历史阶段,本质就是条件判断,就是 If…… 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 思考了好多年,查阅了好多资料视频,今天终于理解了AI的本质,AI到底是什么。其实,计算机程序的第一个历史阶段,本质就是条件判断,就是 If…… then……计算机程序的第二个阶段,就是AI阶段,本质就是模仿,就是计算机不再通过条件判断来执行任务,而是通过复杂的数学映射去识别对象,然后做出直接的反应。这其实就是AI,就是智能,就是智力,就是人类智力。因为人类智力的本质就是模仿。动物行为是条件判断,是计算机程序的第一个历史阶段。人类学会了模仿,也就拥有了智力,从而从动物世界里脱颖而出,就像计算机程序从条件判断进化到AI阶段。模仿,既是计算机AI的本质,也是人类智力的本质。就像亚里士多德所述,模仿是人的本性,是人与动物的区别,是艺术的起源……理解了伟大先哲的智慧,才能理解现代最新的科技……虽然我大学也学的计算机,但是真的,花了这么久,十几年,才可能现在真正理解了计算机……$微软(MSFT)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/278946256531528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548242306046140","authorId":"3548242306046140","name":"慕子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b27ce031243ecc33e3164194ad620a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你说的我很认同👍🏻","text":"你说的我很认同👍🏻","html":"你说的我很认同👍🏻"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283138318151776,"gmtCreate":1710151592772,"gmtModify":1710152376077,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI.US\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)$</a> 散户就这德行。当年冲到100多的时候一个个都疯狂了。现在十块钱左右天天患得患失的。做T你能比过gou庄么。天天越T成本越高。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI.US\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)$</a> 散户就这德行。当年冲到100多的时候一个个都疯狂了。现在十块钱左右天天患得患失的。做T你能比过gou庄么。天天越T成本越高。","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ $哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)$ 散户就这德行。当年冲到100多的时候一个个都疯狂了。现在十块钱左右天天患得患失的。做T你能比过gou庄么。天天越T成本越高。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283138318151776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4120360017010400","authorId":"4120360017010400","name":"一个了不起的故事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee8ea6bdd1c0b0dad01fd85a077f35e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这次反弹/反转你看到多少?","text":"这次反弹/反转你看到多少?","html":"这次反弹/反转你看到多少?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":287058698207280,"gmtCreate":1711112215655,"gmtModify":1711112893881,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 人工智能最重要是钱和商业化,这也是为什么阿尔法狗、open AI疯狂拔高自己,宏大叙事的原因了,一般人玩了几次就扔了,并不比华为市场、苹果商店那些工具APP价值大多少,所以open AI都投靠微软,人家有他变现的渠道,有应用场景,你靠收费耍能收几次,新鲜感过人家就不交费了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 人工智能最重要是钱和商业化,这也是为什么阿尔法狗、open AI疯狂拔高自己,宏大叙事的原因了,一般人玩了几次就扔了,并不比华为市场、苹果商店那些工具APP价值大多少,所以open AI都投靠微软,人家有他变现的渠道,有应用场景,你靠收费耍能收几次,新鲜感过人家就不交费了。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 人工智能最重要是钱和商业化,这也是为什么阿尔法狗、open AI疯狂拔高自己,宏大叙事的原因了,一般人玩了几次就扔了,并不比华为市场、苹果商店那些工具APP价值大多少,所以open AI都投靠微软,人家有他变现的渠道,有应用场景,你靠收费耍能收几次,新鲜感过人家就不交费了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e5834f0d64f712717b33b63f2a43cc4","width":"268","height":"268"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/287058698207280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294485917868120,"gmtCreate":1712921880855,"gmtModify":1712926713145,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 台积电发布了1季度的经营情况,应该说是符合预期的,1季度销售额同增16.5%。2023年台积电销售额704.25亿美元,2024年假设增长率为23%,净利率维持38.75%。假设给与2024年25倍PE,则704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.66*25/51.86=161.81,较目前股价147,161/147=1.095,有差不多10%左右的空间。在美股大盘稳定的情况下,可以试一下。如果给与23倍PE,704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.6631562*23/51.86=148.86。那简单说,现在就看市场情绪了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 台积电发布了1季度的经营情况,应该说是符合预期的,1季度销售额同增16.5%。2023年台积电销售额704.25亿美元,2024年假设增长率为23%,净利率维持38.75%。假设给与2024年25倍PE,则704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.66*25/51.86=161.81,较目前股价147,161/147=1.095,有差不多10%左右的空间。在美股大盘稳定的情况下,可以试一下。如果给与23倍PE,704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.6631562*23/51.86=148.86。那简单说,现在就看市场情绪了。","text":"$台积电(TSM)$ 台积电发布了1季度的经营情况,应该说是符合预期的,1季度销售额同增16.5%。2023年台积电销售额704.25亿美元,2024年假设增长率为23%,净利率维持38.75%。假设给与2024年25倍PE,则704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.66*25/51.86=161.81,较目前股价147,161/147=1.095,有差不多10%左右的空间。在美股大盘稳定的情况下,可以试一下。如果给与23倍PE,704.25*1.23*0.3875=335.6631562*23/51.86=148.86。那简单说,现在就看市场情绪了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43475452286e0f9c0a93abfd89ccf394","width":"420","height":"480"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294485917868120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468338281798142","authorId":"3468338281798142","name":"kissby","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"台积电这两天的跌有点莫名其妙,令人担心","text":"台积电这两天的跌有点莫名其妙,令人担心","html":"台积电这两天的跌有点莫名其妙,令人担心"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285636363989008,"gmtCreate":1710752850409,"gmtModify":1710752857136,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 蔚来研发了长寿命电池,什么标准?使用15年不限里程电池衰减不超过15%,简单理解,使用15年后续航是新电池的85%以上。所以换电就相当于电池终身免费质保。作为对比,某增程车企电池8年12万公里质保,质保期内电池衰减到70%才给免费更换。质保期后更换44度电池用户自费8万6。一个吐槽是蔚来换电承担了用户电池成本,看,通过技术手段解决了。办法总比困难多。换电是纯电补能最优解,没有之一。换电等于电池终身免费质保,换电相当于纯电车的増程器。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 蔚来研发了长寿命电池,什么标准?使用15年不限里程电池衰减不超过15%,简单理解,使用15年后续航是新电池的85%以上。所以换电就相当于电池终身免费质保。作为对比,某增程车企电池8年12万公里质保,质保期内电池衰减到70%才给免费更换。质保期后更换44度电池用户自费8万6。一个吐槽是蔚来换电承担了用户电池成本,看,通过技术手段解决了。办法总比困难多。换电是纯电补能最优解,没有之一。换电等于电池终身免费质保,换电相当于纯电车的増程器。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 蔚来研发了长寿命电池,什么标准?使用15年不限里程电池衰减不超过15%,简单理解,使用15年后续航是新电池的85%以上。所以换电就相当于电池终身免费质保。作为对比,某增程车企电池8年12万公里质保,质保期内电池衰减到70%才给免费更换。质保期后更换44度电池用户自费8万6。一个吐槽是蔚来换电承担了用户电池成本,看,通过技术手段解决了。办法总比困难多。换电是纯电补能最优解,没有之一。换电等于电池终身免费质保,换电相当于纯电车的増程器。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7489e8acdfd9e2040b72a71f1a1824c5","width":"780","height":"361"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285636363989008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":286668778315816,"gmtCreate":1711025322927,"gmtModify":1711025331101,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 手机不知道销量如何,笔记本销量【一时半伙】上不去了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 手机不知道销量如何,笔记本销量【一时半伙】上不去了","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ 手机不知道销量如何,笔记本销量【一时半伙】上不去了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84741434dace2e957e37e59a44cdf7bb","width":"773","height":"1471"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/286668778315816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283927471644712,"gmtCreate":1710334714949,"gmtModify":1710334723762,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">$BOSS直聘(BZ)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看了不少人评价BOSS,这个行业模式并不复杂,但是门槛不低(不在这个行业深耕十年以上的根本进不来,看看前程无忧和智联招聘还有猎聘就明白,来回来去都是新瓶装旧酒,中途杀出来的拉勾也没做出来)本质还是一个“贩卖”人才信息的平台,而且从企业和个人的角度讲,平台是最强势的,招聘流量端口基本被锁死,充值付费金额和实际招聘效果之间偏差越来越大,从商业模式的角度来说没问题,尤其放在当下这个环境,长了会不会反噬?不好说","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">$BOSS直聘(BZ)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看了不少人评价BOSS,这个行业模式并不复杂,但是门槛不低(不在这个行业深耕十年以上的根本进不来,看看前程无忧和智联招聘还有猎聘就明白,来回来去都是新瓶装旧酒,中途杀出来的拉勾也没做出来)本质还是一个“贩卖”人才信息的平台,而且从企业和个人的角度讲,平台是最强势的,招聘流量端口基本被锁死,充值付费金额和实际招聘效果之间偏差越来越大,从商业模式的角度来说没问题,尤其放在当下这个环境,长了会不会反噬?不好说","text":"$BOSS直聘(BZ)$ 看了不少人评价BOSS,这个行业模式并不复杂,但是门槛不低(不在这个行业深耕十年以上的根本进不来,看看前程无忧和智联招聘还有猎聘就明白,来回来去都是新瓶装旧酒,中途杀出来的拉勾也没做出来)本质还是一个“贩卖”人才信息的平台,而且从企业和个人的角度讲,平台是最强势的,招聘流量端口基本被锁死,充值付费金额和实际招聘效果之间偏差越来越大,从商业模式的角度来说没问题,尤其放在当下这个环境,长了会不会反噬?不好说","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41520d4b2fe295dd5a0e3dbf0fea6de6","width":"1241","height":"637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283927471644712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283528094224480,"gmtCreate":1710246752945,"gmtModify":1710246771439,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>怎么看都不贵,就算砍掉美国的份额,毛估估大概9年回本,买入优质中丐的好时间。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>怎么看都不贵,就算砍掉美国的份额,毛估估大概9年回本,买入优质中丐的好时间。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 怎么看都不贵,就算砍掉美国的份额,毛估估大概9年回本,买入优质中丐的好时间。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b60b7fb999b17ff297371b8d03058461","width":"1238","height":"980"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283528094224480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464324161064700","authorId":"3464324161064700","name":"花式","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/608828e79384008b6eef411c40b5bfe1","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"到底什么时候出财报啊?老虎都没显示,是不是要推迟了?","text":"到底什么时候出财报啊?老虎都没显示,是不是要推迟了?","html":"到底什么时候出财报啊?老虎都没显示,是不是要推迟了?"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296296263413777,"gmtCreate":1713357190063,"gmtModify":1713362247193,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯未来5年预测","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296296263413777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4104748128179940","authorId":"4104748128179940","name":"保险王丁","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"腾讯是国内唯一一个知道长期持有的股票","text":"腾讯是国内唯一一个知道长期持有的股票","html":"腾讯是国内唯一一个知道长期持有的股票"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":277187172155408,"gmtCreate":1708703490249,"gmtModify":1708704663949,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> $阿里巴巴(NYSE|BABA)$ 4年前阿里是英伟达的两倍,现在是英伟达的十分之一。不胜感慨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> $阿里巴巴(NYSE|BABA)$ 4年前阿里是英伟达的两倍,现在是英伟达的十分之一。不胜感慨","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $阿里巴巴(NYSE|BABA)$ 4年前阿里是英伟达的两倍,现在是英伟达的十分之一。不胜感慨","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd40d98bed75c6d1fef28b8ddfce118b","width":"339","height":"385"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/277187172155408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":276759217954832,"gmtCreate":1708599009242,"gmtModify":1708599053060,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"蔚来目前的策略就是保住毛利率的情况下,提升销量。","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.US\">$蔚来(NIO.US)$</a> 蔚来目前的策略就是保住毛利率的情况下,提升销量。希望蔚来卖爆那是不可能的了,李斌自己也没想卖爆,卖爆就得降价卖。第四季度交付量5.05万辆,超出指引上限4.9万辆,毛利率应该回升到了15%。股价一而再再而三的屡创新低,主要原因还是持续巨亏和销量低迷,预计2024年第一季度亏损会收债,主要原因是去年开源节流+裁员,销量低迷的问题也不好解决,不降价也没法跟其他竞争对手竞争。蔚来的增长曲线目前只能靠阿尔卑斯了。阿尔卑斯成,蔚来成。阿尔卑斯败,蔚来败!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.US\">$蔚来(NIO.US)$</a> 蔚来目前的策略就是保住毛利率的情况下,提升销量。希望蔚来卖爆那是不可能的了,李斌自己也没想卖爆,卖爆就得降价卖。第四季度交付量5.05万辆,超出指引上限4.9万辆,毛利率应该回升到了15%。股价一而再再而三的屡创新低,主要原因还是持续巨亏和销量低迷,预计2024年第一季度亏损会收债,主要原因是去年开源节流+裁员,销量低迷的问题也不好解决,不降价也没法跟其他竞争对手竞争。蔚来的增长曲线目前只能靠阿尔卑斯了。阿尔卑斯成,蔚来成。阿尔卑斯败,蔚来败!","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ $蔚来(NIO.US)$ 蔚来目前的策略就是保住毛利率的情况下,提升销量。希望蔚来卖爆那是不可能的了,李斌自己也没想卖爆,卖爆就得降价卖。第四季度交付量5.05万辆,超出指引上限4.9万辆,毛利率应该回升到了15%。股价一而再再而三的屡创新低,主要原因还是持续巨亏和销量低迷,预计2024年第一季度亏损会收债,主要原因是去年开源节流+裁员,销量低迷的问题也不好解决,不降价也没法跟其他竞争对手竞争。蔚来的增长曲线目前只能靠阿尔卑斯了。阿尔卑斯成,蔚来成。阿尔卑斯败,蔚来败!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b74d19e6aacf8690bdfd6947ae37f3a","width":"660","height":"347"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cba71efdcdeedeb58c631e58a5f3db7","width":"660","height":"352"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109328a3ec4be82a7082cf60fb7c76c6","width":"660","height":"259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276759217954832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575633005320031","authorId":"3575633005320031","name":"我牛币","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18df52d797832ba4393feb52b348f6e7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"高端卖不过理想、低端都是国产、迪王杀的合资片甲不留","text":"高端卖不过理想、低端都是国产、迪王杀的合资片甲不留","html":"高端卖不过理想、低端都是国产、迪王杀的合资片甲不留"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296296263413776,"gmtCreate":1713357190063,"gmtModify":1713362245392,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯未来5年预测","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 作为我的重仓股,也是我能看明白的为数不多的股票,每隔一段时间,得做个胡乱预测。先说结论,大约是年化15%的增速1、2024年预测首先,我们要先从业务看起,毕竟体量这么大,各业务都增长也不现实,而且中国人确实钱越来越少了业务情况:增值服务:游戏见顶,没有创新,守住基本盘应该问题不大;无增长,2900亿广告:视频号是未来主力,按20%增速,1000*1.2 = 1200亿金融科技:给15%增速,2000*1.15=2300亿营收:合计约6400亿,增长5%;非国际净利润:6400 * 0.26 = 1700亿,增长8%(按26%的净利率算,已经挺高了)股权激励:300亿—-这点不能少啊回购:按800亿计算,回购约2.5亿股,剩余92亿股净利润(扣除股权激励):1430亿,增长10%投资部分估值:8800亿,不变买入:按照12PE-15PE买入为306-357元(减掉投资部分的估值)假如净利润增长15%,则为1500亿,12-15pe为316-3692、未来5年预测净利润:按照12%增长,约2027、28年达到2000亿投资部分估值:8800亿,不变回购:回购金额按照10%增长,股价也同步增长,约每年回购3亿股,2028年减少到80亿股;给15PE在520元,5年增长70%,年化约15%(减去投资部分的估值)其实,这个计算也大致能估算出来,业绩增长大约在10%-12%,每年的回购+分红约在3%-4%之间,加起来就是年化15%左右","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296296263413776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294177432870928,"gmtCreate":1712848934411,"gmtModify":1712848939605,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01252\">$中国天瑞水泥(01252)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这家公司真正让人明白了“买股票就是买公司”这句话的真正意义。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01252\">$中国天瑞水泥(01252)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这家公司真正让人明白了“买股票就是买公司”这句话的真正意义。","text":"$中国天瑞水泥(01252)$ 这家公司真正让人明白了“买股票就是买公司”这句话的真正意义。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e3d4bb80af3bebe2609e40078be22f","width":"669","height":"513"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294177432870928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3446357103211526","authorId":"3446357103211526","name":"huamuyin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a91bbc7028ec788fad68dc9749c7c55","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"今天还停盘吗?不是说短暂停盘最多2天吗?","text":"今天还停盘吗?不是说短暂停盘最多2天吗?","html":"今天还停盘吗?不是说短暂停盘最多2天吗?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":289257570553896,"gmtCreate":1711641740686,"gmtModify":1711641747007,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 腾10亿每天10亿,折合每股每天回购0.1元。6万股就是相当于每天回购6000块, 腾讯每个回购日,帮我买了6000块。 不涨的话我的持股比例持续上升。直到宇宙的尽头。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 腾10亿每天10亿,折合每股每天回购0.1元。6万股就是相当于每天回购6000块, 腾讯每个回购日,帮我买了6000块。 不涨的话我的持股比例持续上升。直到宇宙的尽头。","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 腾10亿每天10亿,折合每股每天回购0.1元。6万股就是相当于每天回购6000块, 腾讯每个回购日,帮我买了6000块。 不涨的话我的持股比例持续上升。直到宇宙的尽头。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b266791a8a5aa3b13fd480e7660e8b31","width":"640","height":"560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/289257570553896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288052857126952,"gmtCreate":1711354997381,"gmtModify":1711426869462,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALAB\">$Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 我感觉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALAB\">$Astera(ALAB)$</a> 的上市时机比较好,正好是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> GTC大会发布新产品,正好强调interconection这一块。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALAB\">$Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 我感觉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALAB\">$Astera(ALAB)$</a> 的上市时机比较好,正好是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> GTC大会发布新产品,正好强调interconection这一块。","text":"$Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ 我感觉$Astera(ALAB)$ 的上市时机比较好,正好是$英伟达(NVDA)$ GTC大会发布新产品,正好强调interconection这一块。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28fdb46d3dcfcbf9a201fe4ce14f35d","width":"326","height":"480"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288052857126952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":286387045285928,"gmtCreate":1710936261865,"gmtModify":1710937572667,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 增发后有更多现金,短期利空,长期还是可以期待下啊。你看它股本才5500万股而已,对比那些动不动10亿股,已经算良心股了,证明ipo时跟股市融资很少啊,现在遇到个好生意,急需用钱,而老美银行利率太高,于是跟股民们要钱,未来业绩做好了回报股民也好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 增发后有更多现金,短期利空,长期还是可以期待下啊。你看它股本才5500万股而已,对比那些动不动10亿股,已经算良心股了,证明ipo时跟股市融资很少啊,现在遇到个好生意,急需用钱,而老美银行利率太高,于是跟股民们要钱,未来业绩做好了回报股民也好","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 增发后有更多现金,短期利空,长期还是可以期待下啊。你看它股本才5500万股而已,对比那些动不动10亿股,已经算良心股了,证明ipo时跟股市融资很少啊,现在遇到个好生意,急需用钱,而老美银行利率太高,于是跟股民们要钱,未来业绩做好了回报股民也好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f75810929dedf54420ba549772404a2f","width":"259","height":"194"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/286387045285928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554612926023785","authorId":"3554612926023785","name":"Ericistaking","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba1a761a1fa79aac1979266b55c5e62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你在偷换概念! 别人家增发几亿股,可别人的股价没那么高啊","text":"你在偷换概念! 别人家增发几亿股,可别人的股价没那么高啊","html":"你在偷换概念! 别人家增发几亿股,可别人的股价没那么高啊"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":286064242057232,"gmtCreate":1710857312828,"gmtModify":1710857381325,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 历史很值得大家学习,大家仅仅看到苹果现在的股价和过去10年的惊人涨幅,从2014年6月 -2016年12月,10个季度,苹果的股价23-28美金之间波动, P/S 2.3-3, EV/EBITDA 5-7倍,FCF yield 8-11%.主要想说明,企业的发展不是线性的,企业发展会遇到瓶颈期,增长会放缓,有时从高速增长(》20%)到 中低增长,市场估值和情绪的弹性可以非常大,也为耐心的投资者提供了很多机会。有时候投资的机会不用讲各种未来故事,仅仅看简单的数字,也是非常明显的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 历史很值得大家学习,大家仅仅看到苹果现在的股价和过去10年的惊人涨幅,从2014年6月 -2016年12月,10个季度,苹果的股价23-28美金之间波动, P/S 2.3-3, EV/EBITDA 5-7倍,FCF yield 8-11%.主要想说明,企业的发展不是线性的,企业发展会遇到瓶颈期,增长会放缓,有时从高速增长(》20%)到 中低增长,市场估值和情绪的弹性可以非常大,也为耐心的投资者提供了很多机会。有时候投资的机会不用讲各种未来故事,仅仅看简单的数字,也是非常明显的。","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 历史很值得大家学习,大家仅仅看到苹果现在的股价和过去10年的惊人涨幅,从2014年6月 -2016年12月,10个季度,苹果的股价23-28美金之间波动, P/S 2.3-3, EV/EBITDA 5-7倍,FCF yield 8-11%.主要想说明,企业的发展不是线性的,企业发展会遇到瓶颈期,增长会放缓,有时从高速增长(》20%)到 中低增长,市场估值和情绪的弹性可以非常大,也为耐心的投资者提供了很多机会。有时候投资的机会不用讲各种未来故事,仅仅看简单的数字,也是非常明显的。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13a130aa02dac7968e2bff8e2c2a0a1","width":"2985","height":"682"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/286064242057232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":280688223014984,"gmtCreate":1709559141038,"gmtModify":1709559144114,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"AI服务器 积压订单翻倍,现在还很便宜,继续抱!","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">$戴尔(DELL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 今天科技股的领头羊,是更偏向实质性和确定性受益的AI服务器、光模块和液冷,“卖铲人”的算力基础设施和硬件逻辑占优!你想啊,AI一旦普及,全球60亿人每人配备一台AI机器人助理(代替肉身的劳动和思考),对算力的需求,必然是几何倍数的增长!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">$戴尔(DELL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 今天科技股的领头羊,是更偏向实质性和确定性受益的AI服务器、光模块和液冷,“卖铲人”的算力基础设施和硬件逻辑占优!你想啊,AI一旦普及,全球60亿人每人配备一台AI机器人助理(代替肉身的劳动和思考),对算力的需求,必然是几何倍数的增长!","text":"$戴尔(DELL)$ 今天科技股的领头羊,是更偏向实质性和确定性受益的AI服务器、光模块和液冷,“卖铲人”的算力基础设施和硬件逻辑占优!你想啊,AI一旦普及,全球60亿人每人配备一台AI机器人助理(代替肉身的劳动和思考),对算力的需求,必然是几何倍数的增长!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28fdb46d3dcfcbf9a201fe4ce14f35d","width":"326","height":"480"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/280688223014984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303366485516440,"gmtCreate":1715099517377,"gmtModify":1715099521742,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 刚看了一下发布会,给我的感觉就是苹果真的把产品做到了极致,就是价格有点贵!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 刚看了一下发布会,给我的感觉就是苹果真的把产品做到了极致,就是价格有点贵!","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 刚看了一下发布会,给我的感觉就是苹果真的把产品做到了极致,就是价格有点贵!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bca85bcff6ddad2aadbbe402e64ddb","width":"875","height":"496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303366485516440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302955124068504,"gmtCreate":1714999087335,"gmtModify":1715000729498,"author":{"id":"9000000000000293","authorId":"9000000000000293","name":"黄油手11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e494a36ad24a3771c97463c476f0ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> B站管理层根本不行,十年来一事无成[捂脸]现在也是浪费时间。拥有整个年轻群体,无所适从。激励计划,给米哈游,明日方舟倒流,扩大ip影响力,自己ip价值为0。陈某人搞游戏直播,一事无成。李某人搞ogv,一事无成。大家投资者不要浪费时间了。思想和能力出了问题,再多机会,再好机会,也是枉然。希望b站游戏成功的人,洗洗睡吧……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> B站管理层根本不行,十年来一事无成[捂脸]现在也是浪费时间。拥有整个年轻群体,无所适从。激励计划,给米哈游,明日方舟倒流,扩大ip影响力,自己ip价值为0。陈某人搞游戏直播,一事无成。李某人搞ogv,一事无成。大家投资者不要浪费时间了。思想和能力出了问题,再多机会,再好机会,也是枉然。希望b站游戏成功的人,洗洗睡吧……","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ B站管理层根本不行,十年来一事无成[捂脸]现在也是浪费时间。拥有整个年轻群体,无所适从。激励计划,给米哈游,明日方舟倒流,扩大ip影响力,自己ip价值为0。陈某人搞游戏直播,一事无成。李某人搞ogv,一事无成。大家投资者不要浪费时间了。思想和能力出了问题,再多机会,再好机会,也是枉然。希望b站游戏成功的人,洗洗睡吧……","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381edf6ccdbc71fda8ccade401ffc04b","width":"854","height":"558"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302955124068504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}