嘻嘻瓜的个人主页 - 老虎社区

嘻嘻瓜

专注抄底，只在跌时买，从不追高，追高没有好下场！

IP属地：北京

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08-06

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ 观察再抄底

08-14

捡钱机会！

异动解读｜应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，Q3业绩与指引全面超预期但遭利好兑现抛压

08-06

$闪迪(SNDK)$ 抄底。

06-01

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@AliceSam:2026学习笔记之96 - IBM是AI时代的隐形王者？

05-21

be plug vrt

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人类最伟大的投资方向

05-13

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阿里巴巴：2026财年Q4营收2433.8亿元同比增长3%，利润端承压

04-11

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光通信概念股大涨，Astera Labs涨超13%，AAOI、POET涨12%

04-08

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这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

异动解读 | 英伟达重申铜技术路线，COHERENT盘中大跌5.55%

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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">行情直击 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-14 16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p>8月14日，应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，报507.44美元/股，成交额118.76万美元。</p><p>消息面上，应用材料盘后公布第三财季业绩，调整后每股收益3.50美元，超出市场预期的3.40美元，同比增长41.13%；营收91.15亿美元，超出预期的89.91亿美元。公司第四财季营收指引中值约102.5亿美元，远高于市场预期的95.5亿美元；调整后每股收益指引4.02美元，亦大幅超出预期的3.72美元。CEO表示预计全年营收增长超20%，封装业务营收增幅将超70%。尽管业绩与展望全面超预期，但公司股价年内已累计翻倍，市场呈现典型\"利好兑现\"走势，获利盘集中了结导致盘前承压。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153895257","content_text":"8月14日，应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，报507.44美元/股，成交额118.76万美元。消息面上，应用材料盘后公布第三财季业绩，调整后每股收益3.50美元，超出市场预期的3.40美元，同比增长41.13%；营收91.15亿美元，超出预期的89.91亿美元。公司第四财季营收指引中值约102.5亿美元，远高于市场预期的95.5亿美元；调整后每股收益指引4.02美元，亦大幅超出预期的3.72美元。CEO表示预计全年营收增长超20%，封装业务营收增幅将超70%。尽管业绩与展望全面超预期，但公司股价年内已累计翻倍，市场呈现典型\"利好兑现\"走势，获利盘集中了结导致盘前承压。（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMAT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593920669181024,"gmtCreate":1786016852803,"gmtModify":1786016854805,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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观察再抄底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593920369894248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4199537022909542","authorId":"4199537022909542","name":"股市獵手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd9af5917d64bde733927002a3f8faf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4199537022909542","authorIdStr":"4199537022909542"},"content":"可以买了吗？这是干嘛的公司","text":"可以买了吗？这是干嘛的公司","html":"可以买了吗？这是干嘛的公司"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593919964209872,"gmtCreate":1786016762299,"gmtModify":1786016764394,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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抄底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593919964209872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":570626590532680,"gmtCreate":1780317414539,"gmtModify":1780319147204,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570626590532680","repostId":"570272813728272","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":570272813728272,"gmtCreate":1780230967721,"gmtModify":1780235986577,"author":{"id":"4087422624240810","authorId":"4087422624240810","name":"AliceSam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff717dd7a06de56315c65060829a03","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087422624240810","authorIdStr":"4087422624240810"},"themes":[],"title":"2026学习笔记之96 - IBM是AI时代的隐形王者？","htmlText":"2026年的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">$IBM(IBM)$</a> 处在一个极其微妙的位置，一方面，它依然是许多投资者眼中有点过气的科技巨头，一个依赖大型机、咨询外包和遗留系统的“旧世界产物”。另一方面，资本市场却又在突然间给它贴上AI，量子的热门标签。有很多朋友已经意识到，正式这种撕裂，在悄悄地创造出新的投资机会。 要看一家公司，不知道从何下手，就先去看一下财报，这是我的习惯。International Business Machines Corporation （IBM）最新财报显示2026Q1的营收为159亿美元，同比增长9%，高于分析师平均预期的156亿美元。这其中的软件业务营收达70.5亿美元，同比增长11%，与分析师预期基本持平。数据业务同比增长19%，混合云含Red Hat增长13%，自动化业务增长10%。基础设施业务表现尤为突出，营收达33.2亿美元，同比增长15%。IBM Z大型机业务同比增长51%，混合基础设施业务增长28%。 调整后EPS1.91美元，也超出了华尔街预期的1.81美元，Non-GAAP毛利率达57.7%，GAAP毛利率升至56.2%，Non-GAAP税前利润率达13.4%，同比大幅提升140个基点。这几个关键数据一出来，我们就知道，IBM这个季度的财务健康状况整体处于非常优秀的水平。 在现金流方面，IBM表现也非常不俗，一季度的自由现金流达22亿美元，高于分析师预期的20.4亿美元。充裕的现金流使IBM在向股东返还16亿美元股息的同时，先后完成对Red Hat、HashiCorp和Confluent的重大收购，进一步完善了自家的AI生态布局。这战绩，已经清清楚楚的展示出来，IBM本质上已经不是成长股，而是带增长选项的高质量现金流资产。 但神奇的是这份财报发布后，IBM的股价却大跌约8%，并持","listText":"2026年的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">$IBM(IBM)$</a> 处在一个极其微妙的位置，一方面，它依然是许多投资者眼中有点过气的科技巨头，一个依赖大型机、咨询外包和遗留系统的“旧世界产物”。另一方面，资本市场却又在突然间给它贴上AI，量子的热门标签。有很多朋友已经意识到，正式这种撕裂，在悄悄地创造出新的投资机会。 要看一家公司，不知道从何下手，就先去看一下财报，这是我的习惯。International Business Machines Corporation （IBM）最新财报显示2026Q1的营收为159亿美元，同比增长9%，高于分析师平均预期的156亿美元。这其中的软件业务营收达70.5亿美元，同比增长11%，与分析师预期基本持平。数据业务同比增长19%，混合云含Red Hat增长13%，自动化业务增长10%。基础设施业务表现尤为突出，营收达33.2亿美元，同比增长15%。IBM Z大型机业务同比增长51%，混合基础设施业务增长28%。 调整后EPS1.91美元，也超出了华尔街预期的1.81美元，Non-GAAP毛利率达57.7%，GAAP毛利率升至56.2%，Non-GAAP税前利润率达13.4%，同比大幅提升140个基点。这几个关键数据一出来，我们就知道，IBM这个季度的财务健康状况整体处于非常优秀的水平。 在现金流方面，IBM表现也非常不俗，一季度的自由现金流达22亿美元，高于分析师预期的20.4亿美元。充裕的现金流使IBM在向股东返还16亿美元股息的同时，先后完成对Red Hat、HashiCorp和Confluent的重大收购，进一步完善了自家的AI生态布局。这战绩，已经清清楚楚的展示出来，IBM本质上已经不是成长股，而是带增长选项的高质量现金流资产。 但神奇的是这份财报发布后，IBM的股价却大跌约8%，并持","text":"2026年的 $IBM(IBM)$ 处在一个极其微妙的位置，一方面，它依然是许多投资者眼中有点过气的科技巨头，一个依赖大型机、咨询外包和遗留系统的“旧世界产物”。另一方面，资本市场却又在突然间给它贴上AI，量子的热门标签。有很多朋友已经意识到，正式这种撕裂，在悄悄地创造出新的投资机会。 要看一家公司，不知道从何下手，就先去看一下财报，这是我的习惯。International Business Machines Corporation （IBM）最新财报显示2026Q1的营收为159亿美元，同比增长9%，高于分析师平均预期的156亿美元。这其中的软件业务营收达70.5亿美元，同比增长11%，与分析师预期基本持平。数据业务同比增长19%，混合云含Red Hat增长13%，自动化业务增长10%。基础设施业务表现尤为突出，营收达33.2亿美元，同比增长15%。IBM Z大型机业务同比增长51%，混合基础设施业务增长28%。 调整后EPS1.91美元，也超出了华尔街预期的1.81美元，Non-GAAP毛利率达57.7%，GAAP毛利率升至56.2%，Non-GAAP税前利润率达13.4%，同比大幅提升140个基点。这几个关键数据一出来，我们就知道，IBM这个季度的财务健康状况整体处于非常优秀的水平。 在现金流方面，IBM表现也非常不俗，一季度的自由现金流达22亿美元，高于分析师预期的20.4亿美元。充裕的现金流使IBM在向股东返还16亿美元股息的同时，先后完成对Red Hat、HashiCorp和Confluent的重大收购，进一步完善了自家的AI生态布局。这战绩，已经清清楚楚的展示出来，IBM本质上已经不是成长股，而是带增长选项的高质量现金流资产。 但神奇的是这份财报发布后，IBM的股价却大跌约8%，并持","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981425ad957e2af892ddfcc74e4954ca","width":"370","height":"586"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f28c0ff4be41c7e9ea85048037a4b5b8","width":"367","height":"586"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/620868e6e66ee817c8127a7214ead4cc","width":"376","height":"730"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570272813728272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566642289596072,"gmtCreate":1779374786365,"gmtModify":1779374788515,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;be plug vrt","listText":"&nbsp;be plug vrt","text":"be plug vrt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566642289596072","repostId":"1166473136","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166473136","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1779374479,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166473136?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 22:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股电气设备股盘中走强！Bloom Energy涨超12%、普拉格能源涨11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166473136","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月21日，美股电气设备股盘中走强，Bloom Energy涨超12%，此前与$NEBIUS(NBIS)$达成供电协议；$普拉格能源(PLUG)$涨11%，Eos Energy涨9%，Vertiv Holdings涨超4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月21日，美股电气设备股盘中走强，Bloom Energy涨超12%，此前与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>达成供电协议；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">普拉格能源</a>涨11%，Eos Energy涨9%，Vertiv Holdings涨超4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00c8cb59c7dd370964cab154754cbaa\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股电气设备股盘中走强！Bloom Energy涨超12%、普拉格能源涨11%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股电气设备股盘中走强！Bloom Energy涨超12%、普拉格能源涨11%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 22:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月21日，美股电气设备股盘中走强，Bloom Energy涨超12%，此前与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>达成供电协议；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">普拉格能源</a>涨11%，Eos Energy涨9%，Vertiv Holdings涨超4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00c8cb59c7dd370964cab154754cbaa\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"BEX":"2倍做多BE ETF-Tradr","BE":"Bloom Energy Corp","HYDR":"Global X Hydrogen ETF","PLUL":"Leverage Shares 2X Long PLUG Daily ETF","BEZ":"Tradr 2X Short BE Daily ETF","CTEX":"ProShares S&P Kensho Cleantech ETF","PLUG":"普拉格能源","BEG":"2倍做多BE ETF-Leverage Shares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166473136","content_text":"5月21日，美股电气设备股盘中走强，Bloom Energy涨超12%，此前与NEBIUS达成供电协议；普拉格能源涨11%，Eos Energy涨9%，Vertiv Holdings涨超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEX":0.6,"PLUL":0.6,"BEZ":0.6,"CTEX":1.5,"HYDR":1.5,"PLUG":2,"BE":2,"BEG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":564107954152624,"gmtCreate":1778755995320,"gmtModify":1778755997782,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564107954152624","repostId":"2633362180","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633362180","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778067323,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2633362180?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-06 19:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"人类最伟大的投资方向","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633362180","media":"格隆汇","summary":"新的时代在定价","content":"<html><body><p>这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。</p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>自</span></span><span><span>2022</span></span><span><span>年到</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年底，股价增长超</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>倍，市值一度超</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>2023</span></span><span><span>年至今股价增长</span></span><span><span>3.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值</span></span><span><span>4.7</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>自</span></span><span><span>2022</span></span><span><span>年低点上涨近</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>同期上涨超</span></span><span><span>9</span></span><span><span>倍，市值同样超</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>最近一年飙涨</span></span><span><span>7.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>7200</span></span><span><span>亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>一年内飙涨</span></span><span><span>4.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>5400</span></span><span><span>亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>月上市来，仅</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>年多飙升超</span></span><span><span>40</span></span><span><span>倍；</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/276cc-5a25fe3e-e018-4acf-b1d7-05f8826dc0f4.jpg?guru_height=956&amp;guru_width=683&amp;guru_size=133133\"/></p><p><span><span><span>还有很多热门</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业链公司，短短一年股价涨幅数倍、十几倍的比比皆是。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>很多人还没意识到这些数字到底有多么夸张。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这么说吧，截至</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>月</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>日，单是美股</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业链相关的头部巨头（英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、台积电、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>、</span></span><span><span>meta</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、美光科技、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></span></span><span><span>、英特尔、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a></span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、</span></span><span><span>Palantir)</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><b><span><span>它们的总市值加起来，超过了</span></span><span><span>30</span></span><span><span>万亿美元。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>当前美股最新总市值大约</span></span><span><span>92.5</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家就占了</span></span><b><span><span>三分之一</span></span></b><span><span>；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>当前</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股总市值</span></span><span><span>118.27</span></span><span><span>万亿元，折合</span></span><span><span>17.25</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家的总市值是其</span></span><b><span><span>1.75</span></span><span><span>倍</span></span></b><span><span>！</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年</span></span></b><b><span><span>，</span></span></b><b><span><span>美国名义</span></span><span><span>GDP30.8</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，差不多刚好</span></span></b><b><span><span>是</span></span></b><b><span><span>这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家的总市值！</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个风暴还不止发生在美股，</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>韩国</span></span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>年初至今股价涨幅超</span></span><span><span>3.7</span></span><span><span>倍，市值突破</span></span><span><span>1.04</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>韩国</span></span><b><span><span>SK</span></span><span><span>海力士</span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>同期涨幅超</span></span><span><span>3.6</span></span><span><span>倍，市值涨至</span></span><span><span>7</span></span><span><span>千亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/d1a62-e9d18f98-96eb-468d-821e-4df100551200.jpg?guru_height=1502&amp;guru_width=1072&amp;guru_size=218743\"/></p><p><span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股这边，</span></span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601138\">工业富联</a></span></span></b><span><span>股价</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>3</span></span><span><span>倍，市值一度超过</span></span><span><span>1.6</span></span><span><span>万亿元，成为首个受益于</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业的万亿市值巨头；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300308\">中际旭创</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>一年涨超</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>倍，市值最高时同样突破万亿</span></span><span><span>元</span></span><span><span>；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有大量的芯片、光通信、</span></span><span><span>PCB</span></span><span><span>龙头，市值</span></span><span><span>同样短时间内</span></span><span><span>飙升几倍，跻身</span></span><span><span>为</span></span><span><span>千亿市值</span></span><span><span>巨头</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>可以说，这绝对是人类</span></span></b><b><span><span>有史以来</span></span></b><b><span><span>最</span></span></b><b><span><span>极致</span></span></b><b><span><span>的一次全球性资产暴涨潮。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>面对如此史诗级的资产狂潮</span></span><span><span>，有人翻出</span></span><span><span>2000</span></span><span><span>年互联网泡沫的旧报纸，试图证明这一切终将灰飞烟灭。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但他们忘了一件事。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>人类历史上，没有一次真正的文明级变革，会因为</span></span><span><span>“看起来太贵”而停下脚步。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这一次同样如此</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>纵观人类文明史，本质上就是科技不断突破生理、环境、认知局限的进化史。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>其中有一个规律从未被打破：</span></span><b><span><span>谁抓住了时代的核心科技，谁就抓住了财富的密码。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>农耕时代，铁器、水利是核心科技，掌握先进农耕技术的人，成为当时时代的最大受益者；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>工业时代，蒸汽机、电力是核心科技，催生了钢铁、能源、制造业巨头，成就了一批跨越百年的企业；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>信息时代，互联网是核心科技，苹果、谷歌、微软、</span></span><span><span>meta</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>等科技巨头，创造了前所未有的市值神话；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>而</span></span></b><b><span><span>今天，智能时代的核心科技，就是算力。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>这一次，算力的载体是超大规模</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>几万张、几十万张</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>连在一起，像一座数字时代的巨型电站。单是训练一个前沿大模型消耗的电力，就够一个普通家庭用上几百年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而这样的集群，全世界正在以每周数个的速度拔地而起。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>谁控制了最大的算力集群，谁就定义了智能的上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>OpenAI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Google</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a></span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>xAI</span></span><span><span>……它们之间的竞争，表面上是模型参数的竞赛，实质上是算力储备的军备竞赛。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>马斯克说要建</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>万张</span></span><span><span>H100</span></span><span><span>的集群，黄仁勋说未来的数据中心会是“</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>工厂”——</span></span><b><span><span>这些巨头们，丝毫不掩饰对算力的极致渴望。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>他们在疯买算力，不是因为疯狂，而是因为足够清醒。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>算力的最大价值，就在于它的需求是</span></span><span><span>“永续性、无上限”的</span></span></b><b><span><span>。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>未来人类社会</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>必</span></span><span><span>将全面迈向智能化，算力的渗透将无孔不入，如同水和空气一样，成为人类生存、发展的必需品，</span></span><span><span>且</span></span><span><span>需求永不枯竭、持续扩容。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>比如在</span></span><span><span>产业层面，工业无人化、智能制造、数字孪生、工业仿真</span></span><span><span>……这些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上的词背后，全都需要海量算力支撑，才能实现决策智能化、生产自动化、降低成本、提升效率；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>生活层面，自动驾驶、人形机器人、智能家居、</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>助手、元宇宙等场景的普及，更需要实时算力保障体验，让科技真正融入日常生活，改变人类的生活方式；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>尤其是</span></span><span><span>前沿探索层面，生命科学（药物研发、基因测序、抗衰老研究）、空间探索（星际模拟、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>计算、太空移民）、量子科技、可控核聚变等领域的突破，更需要顶级算力作为支撑，去帮助人类突破认知边界。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>更重要的是，算力的需求不会因经济周期、政策调整而减少，反而会随着智能化时代的推进持续不断提升需求总量</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种</span></span><span><span>“无上限、不可逆”的刚需，</span></span><b><span><span>是任何传统行业都无法比拟的优势。</span></span></b></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>智能时代有三大</span></span><span><span>最基础的</span></span><span><span>要素</span></span><span><span>——</span></span><span><span>算力、电力、数据。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但</span></span><span><span>凭什么算力最核心？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>打个比方。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>数据，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>的</span></span><span><span>“原油”。</span></span></b><span><span>它埋藏在每个点击、每段对话、每张图片里。</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，全球每年产生的数据量已经超过</span></span><span><span>175ZB</span></span><span><span>——堆在一起，需要几十亿块</span></span><span><span>12TB</span></span><span><span>的硬盘才能装下。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但没有算力炼化，这些原油不过是地底下没人开采的淤泥。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>电力，是新时代的</span></span><span><span>“血液”。</span></span></b><span><span>它驱动一切运转，但血液本身不会思考，不会决策。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群的耗电量确实在以惊人的速度膨胀，以至于有些数据中心不得不建在核电站旁边。电网公司</span></span><span><span>甚至</span></span><span><span>开始要求算力客户提前三年下用电申请</span></span><span><span>——这在历史上从未发生过。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但如果没有算力，一切归零。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>没有算力，数据只是一堆沉默的比特，电力也只能点亮灯泡，点不亮智能。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这才是</span></span><span><span>“基石”的真正含义——它是地基之下那块<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688169\">石头</a>，抽掉它，整座大厦瞬间崩塌。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>想象一下电力的历史。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一旦人类用上了电，就再也回不去没有电的夜晚。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>电灯、电话、电视、电脑</span></span><span><span>……每一项发明都在加深人类对电的依赖，直到它成为像空气一样的存在。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力正在经历同样的过程。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>今天，你已经完全离不开手机、电脑电子设备，你打开的每一个应用、敲下的每一个字背后，都要消耗大量的算力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你甚至不知道，当你用手机拍照的一瞬间，背后有十几个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型同时运行——人脸检测、场景识别、</span></span><span><span>HDR</span></span><span><span>融合、降噪……每一个都需要算力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，你会觉得“没有算力的一天”，就像今天觉得“没有电的一天”一样荒谬。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一旦算力侵入一个领域，它就永不退潮。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>这还不是全部。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力最迷人的地方在于</span></span><span><span>——人类对算力的贪婪，没有上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你可以少买一辆车、少买一部手机、少喝一杯咖啡。经济学家管这叫</span></span><span><span>“需求弹性”——价格高了，人们自然买得少。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但你不会让</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>“少思考一点”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而如果</span></span><span><span>你想让</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>变聪明一点点，需要的算力要翻很多倍。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>德勤的报告预测，到</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年，推理将占据三分之二的</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>计算量；到</span></span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，这个比例可能达到</span></span><span><span>75%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这意味着，</span></span><b><span><span>算力需求不是一条向上的斜线，而是一条加速陡峭的曲线。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为全球如果有一亿人每天问</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>十个问题，那一天的推理算力消耗，就相当于重新训练一遍</span></span><span><span>GPT-4</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>另一边，算力的供给端却像跑在泥沼里。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>现在，芯片制程已经逼近物理极限。</span></span><span><span>3</span></span><span><span>纳米、</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>纳米、</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>纳米……每一步难如登天。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>台积电的</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>纳米工厂投资超过</span></span><span><span>300</span></span><span><span>亿美元，从动工到量产需要四五年。就算技术突破，产能爬坡也不是一朝一夕。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>全球只有一家公司能生产最顶尖的极紫外光刻机</span></span><span><span>——荷兰的</span></span><span><span>ASML</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一台机器</span></span><span><span>3.5</span></span><span><span>亿美元，年产只有几十台。每台机器重达</span></span><span><span>180</span></span><span><span>吨，需要三架<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a></span></span><span><span>747</span></span><span><span>才能运完。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你想增加产能？对不起，蔡司的光学镜片磨不出来，通快的激光器造不出来。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有能源。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一个大型</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群的耗电量，堪比一座中型城市。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>美国，很多新建</span></span><span><span>的</span></span><span><span>“数据中心巷”</span></span><span><span>因为</span></span><span><span>当地电网不堪重负</span></span><span><span>而被迫暂停，</span></span><span><span>新项目并网等待时间长达数年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力公司开始自己建电站、买核反应堆，这在一年前还是笑话</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>如今却是普遍都在做的事。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>也就是说，算力需求以指数级狂奔，但供给却被缚住手脚。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个</span></span><span><span>“超级缺口”，将是未来十年的结构性主题。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">04</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>站在今天，看向未来十年，算力产业链的路径极其清晰：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>英伟达、博通、</span></span><span><span>AMD</span></span><span><span>，还有那些躲在幕后但不可或缺的</span></span><span><span>HBM</span></span><span><span>厂商（</span></span><span><span>SK</span></span><span><span>海力士、美光）、先进封装厂（台积电的</span></span><span><span>CoWoS</span></span><span><span>、日月光）、半导体设备商（</span></span><span><span>ASML</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KLAC\">KLA</a></span></span><span><span>）。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>无论</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型未来谁赢、谁输，这些“卖铲人”都会赢。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>掘金热里，最稳赚不赔的是卖铲子的人。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个道理，几百年来从未失效。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>1849</span></span><span><span>年加州淘金热，真正发财的不是大多数淘金客，而是卖铲子、卖牛仔裤的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEVI\">李维斯</a>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>今天，这些</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>“卖铲人”卖出的是人类历史上最贵、最稀缺、也最不可或缺的“铲子”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有光模块、高速互联、交换机</span></span><span><span>……算力集群每扩大一倍，互联带宽的需求就翻几倍。从</span></span><span><span>800G</span></span><span><span>到</span></span><span><span>1.6T</span></span><span><span>到</span></span><span><span>3.2T</span></span><span><span>，光模块的升级速度远远超过了传统的“四年一代”。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/cb2e6-ffb44163-f2cc-4e01-a2b6-6cbcaa7f9135.jpg?guru_height=748&amp;guru_width=1080&amp;guru_size=125142\"/></p><p><span><span><span>美股、</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股里的光通信标的为什么能一年涨几倍、十几倍？因为它们是算力时代的“神经网络”。没有它们，再强的算力芯片也只能单打独斗，组不成军团。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>甚至还有量子计算、光子计算、存内计算、边缘</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>算力……这些听起来还很遥远的技术，都有可能在未来十年诞生出新的算力王者。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">05</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">写在最后</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>投资的本质，是认知的变现；而认知的高度，决定了收益的上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>我们要跳出股市的短期博弈，多从人类文明进化、国家科技发展、行业技术迭代的角度，思考算力的价值，提升自身的格局视野。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力作为智能时代核心基石的本质，</span></span><span><span>有着</span></span><span><span>“刚需不可逆、地位不可替、壁垒不可破、增长无上限”的底层逻辑，</span></span><span><span>无疑让它能成为当下最伟大的投资方向之一</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>投资算力，甚至不需要你相信任何一家公司、任何一个</span></span><span><span>CEO</span></span><span><span>、任何一条技术路线。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你只需要相信一件事：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>人类对智能的渴望，是刻在基因里的本能。而算力，是一切智能的物理化身。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>或许</span></span><span><span>二十年后，人们回望</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>—</span></span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，会说：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>那是铁路时代的</span></span><span><span>1860</span></span><span><span>年代，那是电力时代的</span></span><span><span>1900</span></span><span><span>年代，那是互联网时代的</span></span><span><span>1995</span></span><span><span>年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>只是这一次，浪潮比任何一次都更确定、更汹涌、更不可阻挡。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>面对如此令人激动的新时代和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">新世界</a>，</span></span></span></p><p><span><span>你是拥抱？还是漠视？</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>人类最伟大的投资方向</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n人类最伟大的投资方向\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-06 19:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。英伟达，自2022年到2025年底，股价增长超15倍，市值一度超5万亿美元；谷歌，2023年至今股价增长3.5倍，当前市值4.7万亿美元；台积电，自2022年低点上涨近6倍，当前市值超2万亿美元；博通，同期上涨超9倍，市值同样超2万亿美元；美光科技，最近一年飙涨7.5倍，当前市值超7200亿美元；英特尔，一年内飙涨4.5倍，当前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/168f5-51c69691-7244-4853-b93a-b23b9aba6d11.jpg?guru_height=643&guru_width=1146&guru_size=156394","relate_stocks":{"LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  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ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2633362180","content_text":"这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。英伟达，自2022年到2025年底，股价增长超15倍，市值一度超5万亿美元；谷歌，2023年至今股价增长3.5倍，当前市值4.7万亿美元；台积电，自2022年低点上涨近6倍，当前市值超2万亿美元；博通，同期上涨超9倍，市值同样超2万亿美元；美光科技，最近一年飙涨7.5倍，当前市值超7200亿美元；英特尔，一年内飙涨4.5倍，当前市值超5400亿美元；闪迪，2025年2月上市来，仅1年多飙升超40倍；还有很多热门AI产业链公司，短短一年股价涨幅数倍、十几倍的比比皆是。很多人还没意识到这些数字到底有多么夸张。这么说吧，截至5月6日，单是美股15家AI产业链相关的头部巨头（英伟达、苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊、台积电、博通、meta、特斯拉、美光科技、AMD、英特尔、ASML、甲骨文、Palantir)，它们的总市值加起来，超过了30万亿美元。当前美股最新总市值大约92.5万亿美元，这15家就占了三分之一；当前A股总市值118.27万亿元，折合17.25万亿美元，这15家的总市值是其1.75倍！2025年，美国名义GDP30.8万亿美元，差不多刚好是这15家的总市值！这个风暴还不止发生在美股，韩国三星电子，年初至今股价涨幅超3.7倍，市值突破1.04万亿美元；韩国SK海力士，同期涨幅超3.6倍，市值涨至7千亿美元；A股这边，工业富联股价1年3倍，市值一度超过1.6万亿元，成为首个受益于AI产业的万亿市值巨头；中际旭创，一年涨超10倍，市值最高时同样突破万亿元；还有大量的芯片、光通信、PCB龙头，市值同样短时间内飙升几倍，跻身为千亿市值巨头。可以说，这绝对是人类有史以来最极致的一次全球性资产暴涨潮。面对如此史诗级的资产狂潮，有人翻出2000年互联网泡沫的旧报纸，试图证明这一切终将灰飞烟灭。但他们忘了一件事。人类历史上，没有一次真正的文明级变革，会因为“看起来太贵”而停下脚步。这一次同样如此。01纵观人类文明史，本质上就是科技不断突破生理、环境、认知局限的进化史。其中有一个规律从未被打破：谁抓住了时代的核心科技，谁就抓住了财富的密码。农耕时代，铁器、水利是核心科技，掌握先进农耕技术的人，成为当时时代的最大受益者；工业时代，蒸汽机、电力是核心科技，催生了钢铁、能源、制造业巨头，成就了一批跨越百年的企业；信息时代，互联网是核心科技，苹果、谷歌、微软、meta、腾讯，阿里等科技巨头，创造了前所未有的市值神话；而今天，智能时代的核心科技，就是算力。这一次，算力的载体是超大规模AI集群。几万张、几十万张GPU连在一起，像一座数字时代的巨型电站。单是训练一个前沿大模型消耗的电力，就够一个普通家庭用上几百年。而这样的集群，全世界正在以每周数个的速度拔地而起。谁控制了最大的算力集群，谁就定义了智能的上限。OpenAI、Google、Meta、xAI……它们之间的竞争，表面上是模型参数的竞赛，实质上是算力储备的军备竞赛。马斯克说要建10万张H100的集群，黄仁勋说未来的数据中心会是“AI工厂”——这些巨头们，丝毫不掩饰对算力的极致渴望。他们在疯买算力，不是因为疯狂，而是因为足够清醒。算力的最大价值，就在于它的需求是“永续性、无上限”的。未来人类社会，必将全面迈向智能化，算力的渗透将无孔不入，如同水和空气一样，成为人类生存、发展的必需品，且需求永不枯竭、持续扩容。比如在产业层面，工业无人化、智能制造、数字孪生、工业仿真……这些高大上的词背后，全都需要海量算力支撑，才能实现决策智能化、生产自动化、降低成本、提升效率；生活层面，自动驾驶、人形机器人、智能家居、AI助手、元宇宙等场景的普及，更需要实时算力保障体验，让科技真正融入日常生活，改变人类的生活方式；尤其是前沿探索层面，生命科学（药物研发、基因测序、抗衰老研究）、空间探索（星际模拟、航天计算、太空移民）、量子科技、可控核聚变等领域的突破，更需要顶级算力作为支撑，去帮助人类突破认知边界。更重要的是，算力的需求不会因经济周期、政策调整而减少，反而会随着智能化时代的推进持续不断提升需求总量。这种“无上限、不可逆”的刚需，是任何传统行业都无法比拟的优势。02智能时代有三大最基础的要素——算力、电力、数据。但凭什么算力最核心？打个比方。数据，是新时代的“原油”。它埋藏在每个点击、每段对话、每张图片里。2025年，全球每年产生的数据量已经超过175ZB——堆在一起，需要几十亿块12TB的硬盘才能装下。但没有算力炼化，这些原油不过是地底下没人开采的淤泥。电力，是新时代的“血液”。它驱动一切运转，但血液本身不会思考，不会决策。AI集群的耗电量确实在以惊人的速度膨胀，以至于有些数据中心不得不建在核电站旁边。电网公司甚至开始要求算力客户提前三年下用电申请——这在历史上从未发生过。但如果没有算力，一切归零。没有算力，数据只是一堆沉默的比特，电力也只能点亮灯泡，点不亮智能。这才是“基石”的真正含义——它是地基之下那块石头，抽掉它，整座大厦瞬间崩塌。想象一下电力的历史。一旦人类用上了电，就再也回不去没有电的夜晚。电灯、电话、电视、电脑……每一项发明都在加深人类对电的依赖，直到它成为像空气一样的存在。算力正在经历同样的过程。今天，你已经完全离不开手机、电脑电子设备，你打开的每一个应用、敲下的每一个字背后，都要消耗大量的算力。你甚至不知道，当你用手机拍照的一瞬间，背后有十几个AI模型同时运行——人脸检测、场景识别、HDR融合、降噪……每一个都需要算力。2030年，你会觉得“没有算力的一天”，就像今天觉得“没有电的一天”一样荒谬。一旦算力侵入一个领域，它就永不退潮。03这还不是全部。算力最迷人的地方在于——人类对算力的贪婪，没有上限。你可以少买一辆车、少买一部手机、少喝一杯咖啡。经济学家管这叫“需求弹性”——价格高了，人们自然买得少。但你不会让AI“少思考一点”。而如果你想让AI变聪明一点点，需要的算力要翻很多倍。德勤的报告预测，到2026年，推理将占据三分之二的AI计算量；到2030年，这个比例可能达到75%。这意味着，算力需求不是一条向上的斜线，而是一条加速陡峭的曲线。因为全球如果有一亿人每天问AI十个问题，那一天的推理算力消耗，就相当于重新训练一遍GPT-4。另一边，算力的供给端却像跑在泥沼里。现在，芯片制程已经逼近物理极限。3纳米、2纳米、1纳米……每一步难如登天。台积电的2纳米工厂投资超过300亿美元，从动工到量产需要四五年。就算技术突破，产能爬坡也不是一朝一夕。全球只有一家公司能生产最顶尖的极紫外光刻机——荷兰的ASML。一台机器3.5亿美元，年产只有几十台。每台机器重达180吨，需要三架波音747才能运完。你想增加产能？对不起，蔡司的光学镜片磨不出来，通快的激光器造不出来。还有能源。一个大型AI集群的耗电量，堪比一座中型城市。在美国，很多新建的“数据中心巷”因为当地电网不堪重负而被迫暂停，新项目并网等待时间长达数年。算力公司开始自己建电站、买核反应堆，这在一年前还是笑话，如今却是普遍都在做的事。也就是说，算力需求以指数级狂奔，但供给却被缚住手脚。这个“超级缺口”，将是未来十年的结构性主题。04站在今天，看向未来十年，算力产业链的路径极其清晰：英伟达、博通、AMD，还有那些躲在幕后但不可或缺的HBM厂商（SK海力士、美光）、先进封装厂（台积电的CoWoS、日月光）、半导体设备商（ASML、应用材料、KLA）。无论AI模型未来谁赢、谁输，这些“卖铲人”都会赢。掘金热里，最稳赚不赔的是卖铲子的人。这个道理，几百年来从未失效。1849年加州淘金热，真正发财的不是大多数淘金客，而是卖铲子、卖牛仔裤的李维斯。今天，这些AI“卖铲人”卖出的是人类历史上最贵、最稀缺、也最不可或缺的“铲子”。还有光模块、高速互联、交换机……算力集群每扩大一倍，互联带宽的需求就翻几倍。从800G到1.6T到3.2T，光模块的升级速度远远超过了传统的“四年一代”。美股、A股里的光通信标的为什么能一年涨几倍、十几倍？因为它们是算力时代的“神经网络”。没有它们，再强的算力芯片也只能单打独斗，组不成军团。甚至还有量子计算、光子计算、存内计算、边缘AI算力……这些听起来还很遥远的技术，都有可能在未来十年诞生出新的算力王者。05写在最后投资的本质，是认知的变现；而认知的高度，决定了收益的上限。我们要跳出股市的短期博弈，多从人类文明进化、国家科技发展、行业技术迭代的角度，思考算力的价值，提升自身的格局视野。算力作为智能时代核心基石的本质，有着“刚需不可逆、地位不可替、壁垒不可破、增长无上限”的底层逻辑，无疑让它能成为当下最伟大的投资方向之一。投资算力，甚至不需要你相信任何一家公司、任何一个CEO、任何一条技术路线。你只需要相信一件事：人类对智能的渴望，是刻在基因里的本能。而算力，是一切智能的物理化身。或许二十年后，人们回望2025—2030年，会说：那是铁路时代的1860年代，那是电力时代的1900年代，那是互联网时代的1995年。只是这一次，浪潮比任何一次都更确定、更汹涌、更不可阻挡。面对如此令人激动的新时代和新世界，你是拥抱？还是漠视？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"5RE.SI":0.67,"AVGX":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"MSFT":1.85,"AIYY":0.6,"LINT":0.6,"TSLA":1.84,"STSM":0.6,"GOOGL":1.91,"ASMU":0.6,"ORCL":1.83,"AMUU":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"META":1.85,"AMDY":0.6,"INTW":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"AAPL":1.85,"WTAI":0.76,"DAMD":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"ASML":1.87,"MU":1.87,"MULL":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"INTC":1.86,"AVGW":0.6,"ORCS":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"TSM":1.89,"AMDL":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"04335":1.86,"AMZN":1.84,"AVGO":1.87,"TSMG":0.6,"AMDS":0.6,"03145":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"03165":0.6,"ASMH":0.6,"AMD":1.85,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCU":0.6,"NVDA":1.97,"AVGU":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"AVL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563755128854024,"gmtCreate":1778669918830,"gmtModify":1778669921034,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263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17:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴 ：2026财年Q4营收2433.8亿元同比增长3%，利润端承压","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171260025","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Q4净利润254.76亿元，去年同期123.82亿元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 周三公布2026财年第四财季财报：截至2026年3月31日止季度，公司收入2433.80亿元，同比增长3%，市场预估2,465.1亿元；若剔除高鑫零售和银泰等已处置业务影响，同口径收入同比增长11%。全年收入首次站上万亿元，为1.0237万亿元，同比增长3%，同口径同样增长11%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利润端承压。一季度，阿里由去年同期经营利润284.65亿元转为经营亏损8.48亿元；经调整EBITA同比下降84%至51.02亿元。季度净利润同比增长96%至235.02亿元，主要受股权投资按市值计价收益增加、去年同期处置高鑫零售和银泰亏损形成低基数影响；剔除投资收益、股权激励、减值等项目后，非公认会计准则净利润仅8600万元，同比下降几乎100%。</p><p>阿里巴巴盘前股价大幅震荡，一度涨超2%，截至发稿跌幅超1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/163d23f9bdb95d7cfc24d06f9864f3f2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1257\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CEO吴泳铭在财报中表示，阿里全栈AI技术投入&#34;已正式跨越初期培育阶段，进入正向的规模商业化回报周期&#34;，这一表态为理解公司当前主动压缩利润的战略逻辑提供了注脚。与此同时，董事会宣布派发年度现金股息，每股ADS为1.05美元，股息总额约25亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"6341aef9\">收入：表观低增，同口径仍保持双位数增长</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从集团整体看，阿里本季度收入增长3%，全年收入增长3%，表面增速并不高。但财报特别强调，若不考虑高鑫零售和银泰的已处置业务收入，季度和全年同口径收入均同比增长11%。这意味着，处置线下零售资产对报表收入形成了明显拖累，而核心业务收入韧性更强。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分业务看，一季度阿里巴巴淘天集团收入1222.20亿元，同比增长6%；阿里国际数字商业集团收入354.29亿元，同比增长6%；云智能集团收入416.26亿元，同比增长38%；“所有其他”收入654.59亿元，同比下降21%，主要受高鑫零售、银泰处置以及菜鸟收入下降影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全年维度，淘天集团收入5542.17亿元，同比增长9%；国际数字商业收入1441.70亿元，同比增长9%；云智能收入1581.32亿元，同比增长34%；“所有其他”收入2543.67亿元，同比下降25%。</p><h2 id=\"b47d3d11\">利润：经营亏损与净利润高增并存，核心盈利被投入稀释</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本季度阿里出现经营亏损8.48亿元，而去年同期为经营利润284.65亿元；经营利润率从12%降至接近0。核心原因是战略投入集中释放：科技业务、即时零售、用户体验投入加大，抵消了客户管理服务、云业务增长和多项业务效率提升带来的正向贡献。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经调整EBITA更能反映主业经营压力。本季度经调整EBITA为51.02亿元，同比下降84%，经调整EBITA利润率仅2%；全年经调整EBITA为764.16亿元，同比下降56%，利润率从上一财年的17%降至7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，季度净利润同比增长96%至235.02亿元，归属于普通股股东净利润254.76亿元，同比增长106%。这主要不是经营利润改善，而是投资收益变化驱动：本季度利息收入和投资净收益达338.23亿元，去年同期为净亏损75.16亿元。换言之，净利润高增更多来自投资按市值计价收益及处置事项的同比变化，非公认会计准则净利润降至8600万元，更能体现当期经营投入对利润的挤压。</p><h2 id=\"8\">淘天集团：客户管理收入同口径增长8%，即时零售高增但拖累利润</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电商仍是阿里最核心的利润来源，但也是本轮投入最密集的板块之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度，淘天集团收入1222.20亿元，同比增长6%。其中，电商业务收入962.92亿元，同比下降1%；客户管理收入730.24亿元，同比增长1%。不过，阿里说明，本季度起更新了部分商家的营销发展计划，部分补贴在会计处理上从销售和市场费用改为客户管理收入冲减项。若剔除这一影响，客户管理收入同口径同比增长8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着淘宝天猫的广告、佣金等商业化能力仍在改善。全年客户管理收入3438.67亿元，同比增长5%；若剔除新营销发展计划影响，同口径增长7%，主要由Take rate提升带动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即时零售是增长最快的业务之一。一季度，即时零售收入199.88亿元，同比增长57%，主要得益于2025年4月底推出的“淘宝闪购”带动订单量增长；全年即时零售收入785.20亿元，同比增长47%。公司称即时零售单位经济效益继续改善，笔单价环比提升，主要来自订单结构优化，并进一步拓展高笔单价餐饮和非餐品类。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但高增长背后是利润承压。一季度，淘天集团经调整EBITA为240.10亿元，同比下降40%；全年经调整EBITA为1075.09亿元，同比下降44%。财报解释，主要由于即时零售、用户体验和科技投入增加，部分被客户管理服务正向贡献抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，88VIP会员数继续同比双位数增长，超过6200万。对阿里而言，这仍是提升消费频次、交叉销售和会员留存的核心资产。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">云智能：AI驱动收入加速，盈利同步改善</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">云智能是本季财报最清晰的增长引擎。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度，云智能集团收入416.26亿元，同比增长38%；外部客户收入同比增长40%，主要由公共云业务增长带动，其中包括AI相关产品采用量提升。AI相关产品收入达89.71亿元，连续第十一个季度实现三位数同比增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全年云智能收入1581.32亿元，同比增长34%；外部客户收入同比增长33%。在高投入背景下，云业务利润仍保持增长：本季度云智能经调整EBITA为37.96亿元，同比增长57%；全年经调整EBITA为142.65亿元，同比增长35%。这说明云业务在收入扩张和运营效率提升中，仍能消化部分客户增长与技术创新投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里云的战略重点已经从传统云资源销售，转向“AI+云”全栈能力：包括高性能网络、分布式存储、云操作系统、模型训练与推理服务，以及异构芯片集群编排软件。管理层称，要凭借模型、云基础设施和自研专用推理芯片等能力，争夺中国AI云市场主导权。</p><h2 id=\"ai-maa-s\">AI：从模型、MaaS到应用，阿里试图打通商业闭环</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本季度阿里AI叙事进一步从“投入”转向“商业化”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">模型层面，公司3月发布Qwen3.6-Plus，强调其在编程、智能体编程、前端网页开发和复杂仓库级任务方面表现突出，原生上下文窗口最高支持100万tokens，并增强多模态感知与推理能力。此外，阿里还在灰度测试世界模型HappyOyster和视频生成模型HappyHorse，扩展多模态模型矩阵。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">平台层面，阿里推进MaaS战略。百炼平台推出包括Qwen3.6-Plus在内的模型矩阵、企业Token方案以及智能体产品组合。2026年3月，百炼平台客户数量同比增长八倍，反映企业客户对模型服务的需求快速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">应用层面，阿里将淘宝天猫与千问App打通，并在淘宝App推出千问AI购物助手，覆盖种草、商品发现、售中支持、订单管理和售后服务等链路。商家端则推出企业级AI原生智能体“悟空”，将智能能力嵌入运营流程。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芯片层面，平头哥自研AI芯片已实现产业应用，超过10万卡真武PPU部署于阿里云公共云平台，超过30家车企及自动驾驶公司基于该芯片开展智能驾驶研发。阿里试图通过“芯片—云—模型—应用”形成一体化技术栈，提高训练和推理效率。</p><h2 id=\"397a6506\">国际业务：亏损大幅收窄，接近盈亏平衡</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里国际数字商业集团本季度收入354.29亿元，同比增长6%；全年收入1441.70亿元，同比增长9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，一季度国际零售商业收入289.17亿元，同比增长5%，主要受速卖通及其他国际业务增长带动，部分被Lazada收入下降抵消；国际批发商业收入65.12亿元，同比增长9%，主要来自跨境业务相关增值服务增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是亏损显著收窄。本季度国际数字商业集团经调整EBITA亏损1.38亿元，去年同期亏损35.74亿元，同比大幅改善，已接近盈亏平衡；全年亏损20.51亿元，上一财年亏损151.37亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">改善主要来自速卖通运营效率提升、物流优化和多项业务效率提升。速卖通Choice业务单位经济效益环比继续改善，“Brand+”计划加速品牌接入，本季度“Brand+”季度活跃买家渗透率已超过30%。Alibaba.com则继续推广AI采购助手Accio，并推出面向全球中小企业的智能业务平台Accio Work，试图将AI工具嵌入跨境贸易全流程。</p><h2 id=\"7e18afd0\">费用与现金流：销售投放和云资本开支是主要压力源</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">费用端最显著变化在销售和市场费用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度，阿里销售和市场费用534.15亿元，占收入比例21.9%，去年同期为15.3%；全年销售和市场费用2450.23亿元，占收入比例23.9%，去年为14.5%。财报称，主要由于即时零售业务、用户体验以及千问App用户获取投入增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">产品开发费用也在上升。一季度产品开发费用189.57亿元，占收入比例7.8%，去年同期为6.3%；全年产品开发费用665.33亿元，占收入比例6.5%，去年为5.7%，主要与研发人员和技术基础设施投入有关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现金流方面，全年经营活动现金流净额762.13亿元，同比下降53%；自由现金流净流出466.09亿元，去年为净流入738.70亿元。全年资本性支出1260.63亿元，显著高于上一财年的859.72亿元，主要与云业务、电商业务相关设备购置、数据中心建设、物流和直营业态设施有关。截至3月底，已签约但尚未计提的资本性支出承诺为541.36亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着，AI和云基础设施建设已经成为阿里现金流的核心变量。短期看，它压低自由现金流和利润率；中长期看，则决定阿里能否在AI云市场形成规模优势。</p><h2 id=\"9224991\">千问等科技投入拉大亏损</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“所有其他”分部包括盒马、菜鸟、阿里健康、虎鲸文娱、高德、千问C端事业群、灵犀互娱、钉钉等业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度，该分部收入654.59亿元，同比下降21%，主要由于高鑫零售和银泰处置、菜鸟收入下降，部分被盒马和高德增长抵消。全年收入2543.67亿元，同比下降25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利润端压力更大。本季度该分部经调整EBITA亏损211.60亿元，去年同期亏损34.13亿元；全年亏损357.37亿元，去年亏损94.99亿元。财报明确指出，主要由于科技业务投入增加，包括千问App用户获取投入，部分被其他业务经营改善抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也解释了阿里本季度集团利润的急剧下滑：传统电商仍在贡献利润，云业务盈利改善，国际业务亏损收窄，但千问、即时零售和AI基础设施等新投入正在集中消耗利润与现金流。</p><h2 id=\"9935a584\">股东回报：维持年度股息，回购规模相对克制</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里董事会批准派发2026财年年度定期现金股息，每股普通股0.13125美元，或每股美国存托股1.05美元，股息总额约25亿美元，普通股预计于2026年7月6日前后支付，美国存托股预计于7月13日前后支付。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回购方面，截至2026年3月31日止年度，公司在纽交所回购约7273万股普通股，总对价约10.46亿美元，相关股份均已注销。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从资金安排看，阿里在大规模投入AI、即时零售和云基础设施的同时，仍维持股息和回购，但力度明显需要与自由现金流转负相匹配。截至3月底，公司现金及其他流动投资仍达5208.24亿元，同时债务总额/经调整EBITDA比率由上一财年末的1.14升至2.29，债务总额/资本总额比率为18.86%。这为后续投入提供了空间，也意味着市场将继续关注AI商业化能否尽快覆盖资本开支和获客投入。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴 ：2026财年Q4营收2433.8亿元同比增长3%，利润端承压</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴 ：2026财年Q4营收2433.8亿元同比增长3%，利润端承压\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-13 17:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772187><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>阿里巴巴 周三公布2026财年第四财季财报：截至2026年3月31日止季度，公司收入2433.80亿元，同比增长3%，市场预估2,465.1亿元；若剔除高鑫零售和银泰等已处置业务影响，同口径收入同比增长11%。全年收入首次站上万亿元，为1.0237万亿元，同比增长3%，同口径同样增长11%。利润端承压。一季度，阿里由去年同期经营利润284.65亿元转为经营亏损8.48亿元；经调整EBITA同比下降...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772187\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABO":"BABA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BABX":"2倍做多BABA ETF-GraniteShares","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABU":"Direxion Daily BABA Bull 2X ETF","BABW":"Roundhill BABA WeeklyPay ETF","BABA":"阿里巴巴","KBAB":"2倍做多BABA ETF-KraneShares","BBYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST BABA ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772187","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171260025","content_text":"阿里巴巴 周三公布2026财年第四财季财报：截至2026年3月31日止季度，公司收入2433.80亿元，同比增长3%，市场预估2,465.1亿元；若剔除高鑫零售和银泰等已处置业务影响，同口径收入同比增长11%。全年收入首次站上万亿元，为1.0237万亿元，同比增长3%，同口径同样增长11%。利润端承压。一季度，阿里由去年同期经营利润284.65亿元转为经营亏损8.48亿元；经调整EBITA同比下降84%至51.02亿元。季度净利润同比增长96%至235.02亿元，主要受股权投资按市值计价收益增加、去年同期处置高鑫零售和银泰亏损形成低基数影响；剔除投资收益、股权激励、减值等项目后，非公认会计准则净利润仅8600万元，同比下降几乎100%。阿里巴巴盘前股价大幅震荡，一度涨超2%，截至发稿跌幅超1%。CEO吴泳铭在财报中表示，阿里全栈AI技术投入\"已正式跨越初期培育阶段，进入正向的规模商业化回报周期\"，这一表态为理解公司当前主动压缩利润的战略逻辑提供了注脚。与此同时，董事会宣布派发年度现金股息，每股ADS为1.05美元，股息总额约25亿美元。收入：表观低增，同口径仍保持双位数增长从集团整体看，阿里本季度收入增长3%，全年收入增长3%，表面增速并不高。但财报特别强调，若不考虑高鑫零售和银泰的已处置业务收入，季度和全年同口径收入均同比增长11%。这意味着，处置线下零售资产对报表收入形成了明显拖累，而核心业务收入韧性更强。分业务看，一季度阿里巴巴淘天集团收入1222.20亿元，同比增长6%；阿里国际数字商业集团收入354.29亿元，同比增长6%；云智能集团收入416.26亿元，同比增长38%；“所有其他”收入654.59亿元，同比下降21%，主要受高鑫零售、银泰处置以及菜鸟收入下降影响。全年维度，淘天集团收入5542.17亿元，同比增长9%；国际数字商业收入1441.70亿元，同比增长9%；云智能收入1581.32亿元，同比增长34%；“所有其他”收入2543.67亿元，同比下降25%。利润：经营亏损与净利润高增并存，核心盈利被投入稀释本季度阿里出现经营亏损8.48亿元，而去年同期为经营利润284.65亿元；经营利润率从12%降至接近0。核心原因是战略投入集中释放：科技业务、即时零售、用户体验投入加大，抵消了客户管理服务、云业务增长和多项业务效率提升带来的正向贡献。经调整EBITA更能反映主业经营压力。本季度经调整EBITA为51.02亿元，同比下降84%，经调整EBITA利润率仅2%；全年经调整EBITA为764.16亿元，同比下降56%，利润率从上一财年的17%降至7%。与此同时，季度净利润同比增长96%至235.02亿元，归属于普通股股东净利润254.76亿元，同比增长106%。这主要不是经营利润改善，而是投资收益变化驱动：本季度利息收入和投资净收益达338.23亿元，去年同期为净亏损75.16亿元。换言之，净利润高增更多来自投资按市值计价收益及处置事项的同比变化，非公认会计准则净利润降至8600万元，更能体现当期经营投入对利润的挤压。淘天集团：客户管理收入同口径增长8%，即时零售高增但拖累利润电商仍是阿里最核心的利润来源，但也是本轮投入最密集的板块之一。一季度，淘天集团收入1222.20亿元，同比增长6%。其中，电商业务收入962.92亿元，同比下降1%；客户管理收入730.24亿元，同比增长1%。不过，阿里说明，本季度起更新了部分商家的营销发展计划，部分补贴在会计处理上从销售和市场费用改为客户管理收入冲减项。若剔除这一影响，客户管理收入同口径同比增长8%。这意味着淘宝天猫的广告、佣金等商业化能力仍在改善。全年客户管理收入3438.67亿元，同比增长5%；若剔除新营销发展计划影响，同口径增长7%，主要由Take rate提升带动。即时零售是增长最快的业务之一。一季度，即时零售收入199.88亿元，同比增长57%，主要得益于2025年4月底推出的“淘宝闪购”带动订单量增长；全年即时零售收入785.20亿元，同比增长47%。公司称即时零售单位经济效益继续改善，笔单价环比提升，主要来自订单结构优化，并进一步拓展高笔单价餐饮和非餐品类。但高增长背后是利润承压。一季度，淘天集团经调整EBITA为240.10亿元，同比下降40%；全年经调整EBITA为1075.09亿元，同比下降44%。财报解释，主要由于即时零售、用户体验和科技投入增加，部分被客户管理服务正向贡献抵消。此外，88VIP会员数继续同比双位数增长，超过6200万。对阿里而言，这仍是提升消费频次、交叉销售和会员留存的核心资产。云智能：AI驱动收入加速，盈利同步改善云智能是本季财报最清晰的增长引擎。一季度，云智能集团收入416.26亿元，同比增长38%；外部客户收入同比增长40%，主要由公共云业务增长带动，其中包括AI相关产品采用量提升。AI相关产品收入达89.71亿元，连续第十一个季度实现三位数同比增长。全年云智能收入1581.32亿元，同比增长34%；外部客户收入同比增长33%。在高投入背景下，云业务利润仍保持增长：本季度云智能经调整EBITA为37.96亿元，同比增长57%；全年经调整EBITA为142.65亿元，同比增长35%。这说明云业务在收入扩张和运营效率提升中，仍能消化部分客户增长与技术创新投入。阿里云的战略重点已经从传统云资源销售，转向“AI+云”全栈能力：包括高性能网络、分布式存储、云操作系统、模型训练与推理服务，以及异构芯片集群编排软件。管理层称，要凭借模型、云基础设施和自研专用推理芯片等能力，争夺中国AI云市场主导权。AI：从模型、MaaS到应用，阿里试图打通商业闭环本季度阿里AI叙事进一步从“投入”转向“商业化”。模型层面，公司3月发布Qwen3.6-Plus，强调其在编程、智能体编程、前端网页开发和复杂仓库级任务方面表现突出，原生上下文窗口最高支持100万tokens，并增强多模态感知与推理能力。此外，阿里还在灰度测试世界模型HappyOyster和视频生成模型HappyHorse，扩展多模态模型矩阵。平台层面，阿里推进MaaS战略。百炼平台推出包括Qwen3.6-Plus在内的模型矩阵、企业Token方案以及智能体产品组合。2026年3月，百炼平台客户数量同比增长八倍，反映企业客户对模型服务的需求快速增长。应用层面，阿里将淘宝天猫与千问App打通，并在淘宝App推出千问AI购物助手，覆盖种草、商品发现、售中支持、订单管理和售后服务等链路。商家端则推出企业级AI原生智能体“悟空”，将智能能力嵌入运营流程。芯片层面，平头哥自研AI芯片已实现产业应用，超过10万卡真武PPU部署于阿里云公共云平台，超过30家车企及自动驾驶公司基于该芯片开展智能驾驶研发。阿里试图通过“芯片—云—模型—应用”形成一体化技术栈，提高训练和推理效率。国际业务：亏损大幅收窄，接近盈亏平衡阿里国际数字商业集团本季度收入354.29亿元，同比增长6%；全年收入1441.70亿元，同比增长9%。其中，一季度国际零售商业收入289.17亿元，同比增长5%，主要受速卖通及其他国际业务增长带动，部分被Lazada收入下降抵消；国际批发商业收入65.12亿元，同比增长9%，主要来自跨境业务相关增值服务增长。更值得关注的是亏损显著收窄。本季度国际数字商业集团经调整EBITA亏损1.38亿元，去年同期亏损35.74亿元，同比大幅改善，已接近盈亏平衡；全年亏损20.51亿元，上一财年亏损151.37亿元。改善主要来自速卖通运营效率提升、物流优化和多项业务效率提升。速卖通Choice业务单位经济效益环比继续改善，“Brand+”计划加速品牌接入，本季度“Brand+”季度活跃买家渗透率已超过30%。Alibaba.com则继续推广AI采购助手Accio，并推出面向全球中小企业的智能业务平台Accio Work，试图将AI工具嵌入跨境贸易全流程。费用与现金流：销售投放和云资本开支是主要压力源费用端最显著变化在销售和市场费用。一季度，阿里销售和市场费用534.15亿元，占收入比例21.9%，去年同期为15.3%；全年销售和市场费用2450.23亿元，占收入比例23.9%，去年为14.5%。财报称，主要由于即时零售业务、用户体验以及千问App用户获取投入增加。产品开发费用也在上升。一季度产品开发费用189.57亿元，占收入比例7.8%，去年同期为6.3%；全年产品开发费用665.33亿元，占收入比例6.5%，去年为5.7%，主要与研发人员和技术基础设施投入有关。现金流方面，全年经营活动现金流净额762.13亿元，同比下降53%；自由现金流净流出466.09亿元，去年为净流入738.70亿元。全年资本性支出1260.63亿元，显著高于上一财年的859.72亿元，主要与云业务、电商业务相关设备购置、数据中心建设、物流和直营业态设施有关。截至3月底，已签约但尚未计提的资本性支出承诺为541.36亿元。这意味着，AI和云基础设施建设已经成为阿里现金流的核心变量。短期看，它压低自由现金流和利润率；中长期看，则决定阿里能否在AI云市场形成规模优势。千问等科技投入拉大亏损“所有其他”分部包括盒马、菜鸟、阿里健康、虎鲸文娱、高德、千问C端事业群、灵犀互娱、钉钉等业务。一季度，该分部收入654.59亿元，同比下降21%，主要由于高鑫零售和银泰处置、菜鸟收入下降，部分被盒马和高德增长抵消。全年收入2543.67亿元，同比下降25%。利润端压力更大。本季度该分部经调整EBITA亏损211.60亿元，去年同期亏损34.13亿元；全年亏损357.37亿元，去年亏损94.99亿元。财报明确指出，主要由于科技业务投入增加，包括千问App用户获取投入，部分被其他业务经营改善抵消。这也解释了阿里本季度集团利润的急剧下滑：传统电商仍在贡献利润，云业务盈利改善，国际业务亏损收窄，但千问、即时零售和AI基础设施等新投入正在集中消耗利润与现金流。股东回报：维持年度股息，回购规模相对克制阿里董事会批准派发2026财年年度定期现金股息，每股普通股0.13125美元，或每股美国存托股1.05美元，股息总额约25亿美元，普通股预计于2026年7月6日前后支付，美国存托股预计于7月13日前后支付。回购方面，截至2026年3月31日止年度，公司在纽交所回购约7273万股普通股，总对价约10.46亿美元，相关股份均已注销。从资金安排看，阿里在大规模投入AI、即时零售和云基础设施的同时，仍维持股息和回购，但力度明显需要与自由现金流转负相匹配。截至3月底，公司现金及其他流动投资仍达5208.24亿元，同时债务总额/经调整EBITDA比率由上一财年末的1.14升至2.29，债务总额/资本总额比率为18.86%。这为后续投入提供了空间，也意味着市场将继续关注AI商业化能否尽快覆盖资本开支和获客投入。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KBAB":0.6,"BABA":2,"BABW":0.6,"09988":2,"BBYY":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"BABX":0.6,"BABO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552452539289952,"gmtCreate":1775910674323,"gmtModify":1775910676572,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552452539289952","repostId":"1159268557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159268557","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775833383,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159268557?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-10 23:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"光通信概念股大涨，Astera Labs涨超13%，AAOI、POET涨12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159268557","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"至少还能维持5年左右的景气持续性。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五，光通信概念股集体拉升。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALAB\">Astera Labs, Inc.</a> 涨超13%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAOI\">Applied Optoelectronics Inc.</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POET\">POET Technologies Inc</a> 涨12%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRDO\">Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd</a> 涨超11%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">COHERENT</a> 涨超6%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIEN\">Ciena科技</a> 涨超4%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a> 涨超3%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4ed0b54a621f6d6553be018b79ea0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a34a17df24d130eec0fbb5dc315fb8f\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>光通信龙头Lumentum首席执行官迈克尔·赫尔斯顿周五称，科技巨头对该公司光学组件的需求正在加速，用不了多久连2028年的产能都要卖完了。</p><p>赫尔斯顿表示：“美国几家超大规模云厂商的资本开支规模极其庞大，而且看起来完全没有放缓的迹象。我们的产能正越来越跟不上需求。如果按目前趋势发展，再过两个季度，我们到2028年全年的产能就会彻底售罄。”</p><p>赫尔斯顿表示，目前来看，这一轮行业周期至少还能维持5年左右的景气持续性。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>光通信概念股大涨，Astera Labs涨超13%，AAOI、POET涨12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n光通信概念股大涨，Astera Labs涨超13%，AAOI、POET涨12%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-10 23:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五，光通信概念股集体拉升。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALAB\">Astera Labs, Inc.</a> 涨超13%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAOI\">Applied Optoelectronics Inc.</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POET\">POET Technologies Inc</a> 涨12%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRDO\">Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd</a> 涨超11%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">COHERENT</a> 涨超6%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIEN\">Ciena科技</a> 涨超4%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a> 涨超3%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4ed0b54a621f6d6553be018b79ea0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a34a17df24d130eec0fbb5dc315fb8f\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>光通信龙头Lumentum首席执行官迈克尔·赫尔斯顿周五称，科技巨头对该公司光学组件的需求正在加速，用不了多久连2028年的产能都要卖完了。</p><p>赫尔斯顿表示：“美国几家超大规模云厂商的资本开支规模极其庞大，而且看起来完全没有放缓的迹象。我们的产能正越来越跟不上需求。如果按目前趋势发展，再过两个季度，我们到2028年全年的产能就会彻底售罄。”</p><p>赫尔斯顿表示，目前来看，这一轮行业周期至少还能维持5年左右的景气持续性。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36213e3b23e406b7712fe3c9b6e2762c","relate_stocks":{"AAOI":"Applied Optoelectronics Inc.","LITE":"Lumentum Holdings Inc.","CIEN":"Ciena科技","COHR":"Coherent","POET":"POET Technologies Inc","ALAB":"Astera Labs, Inc.","CRDO":"Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159268557","content_text":"周五，光通信概念股集体拉升。 Astera Labs, Inc. 涨超13%， Applied Optoelectronics Inc. 、 POET Technologies Inc 涨12%， Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd 涨超11%， COHERENT 涨超6%， Ciena科技 涨超4%， Lumentum Holdings Inc. 涨超3%。光通信龙头Lumentum首席执行官迈克尔·赫尔斯顿周五称，科技巨头对该公司光学组件的需求正在加速，用不了多久连2028年的产能都要卖完了。赫尔斯顿表示：“美国几家超大规模云厂商的资本开支规模极其庞大，而且看起来完全没有放缓的迹象。我们的产能正越来越跟不上需求。如果按目前趋势发展，再过两个季度，我们到2028年全年的产能就会彻底售罄。”赫尔斯顿表示，目前来看，这一轮行业周期至少还能维持5年左右的景气持续性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAOI":2,"CIEN":2,"POET":2,"CRDO":2,"LITE":2,"COHR":2,"ALAB":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551321877062984,"gmtCreate":1775621906629,"gmtModify":1775621909101,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"无语","listText":"无语","text":"无语","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551321877062984","repostId":"2625967899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625967899","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775618400,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2625967899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-08 11:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从惊魂到TACO！特朗普震惊世界的12小时","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625967899","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"从威胁“整个文明将消亡”，到“停火两周”，特朗普的这场戏剧性逆转只花了十个小时二十六分钟。在这期间，全球市场和油价随着他的每条推文剧烈摇摆。然而，短暂的停火之下，美伊根本性的问题依然悬而未决。同时，特朗普一次次的极端言论遭致批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>从威胁“整个文明将消亡”，到“停火两周”，特朗普的这场戏剧性逆转只花了十个小时二十六分钟。在这期间，全球市场和油价随着他的每条推文剧烈摇摆。然而，短暂的停火之下，美伊根本性的问题依然悬而未决。同时，特朗普一次次的极端言论遭致批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间2026年4月7日，星期二，上午8时06分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social发出一条简短的帖子：&#34;今晚，整个文明将消亡，永远无法重建。&#34;他给伊朗设定了一个最后期限：当晚8时前，要么谈成协议，要么承受后果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这条帖子随即在全球范围内引发连锁反应——从德黑兰的普通居民，到华尔街的交易大厅，再到欧洲外交官的紧急电话会议。<strong>这是特朗普执政以来最具戏剧性的一次极限施压。</strong>此外，《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。<strong>这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而距离他自己设定的截止时间还剩不到90分钟时，特朗普又再度发文，宣布同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸行动两周。据新华社报道，特朗普当晚在社交媒体发文称：&#34;我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从&#34;整个文明将消亡&#34;，到&#34;暂停两周&#34;，中间只隔了十个小时二十六分钟。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这次美伊短暂的停火，与其说是危机解除，不如说是将更为深层的矛盾暂时搁置。若双方无法达成协议，<strong>两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。</strong>媒体分析称，美伊之间多年来的根本性问题依然悬而未决，核心症结之一便是伊朗核计划中不断增长的浓缩铀库存。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8fa4fbac71aeaa7e6503957c737d66\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4207273577\" style=\"text-align: left;\">一条帖子，世界屏住呼吸</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当特朗普的帖子出现在屏幕上时，全球各地的反应几乎在同一时间启动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在伊朗，许多居民开始为停电和断气做准备。</strong>据《华尔街日报》报道，有人翻出旧式野营炉，重新灌满油罐。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">帖子发出不到30分钟，据该媒体援引阿拉伯国家官员的信息，伊朗官员告知埃及，德黑兰已中断与美方谈判代表的直接联系。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队也随即发出警告：一旦美国越过&#34;红线&#34;，伊方将&#34;不再克制&#34;，并将沙特阿美、延布石油设施及阿联酋富查伊拉输油管道列为潜在打击目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>前以色列总理Ehud Olmert读到这条消息时，正值以色列防空警报响起，他躲进自家防空洞</strong>，在警报声中表态：&#34;我倾向于不按字面意思接受特朗普总统的声明。我希望他的意思是摧毁政权，而不是摧毁伊朗文明。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，美东时间上午9时，美国国防部长Pete Hegseth与参谋长联席会议主席Dan Caine将军接入与中央司令部司令Brad Cooper上将的每日视频会议。据报道<strong>，军事规划人员此前已在准备针对伊朗能源基础设施的潜在打击方案，并调出了已经过军事律师审核的目标清单。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但该清单的实际规模，远小于特朗普帖子中所描述的&#34;伊朗每一座发电厂都将燃烧爆炸&#34;。据悉，每一个目标均须满足合法性要求：与伊朗军事和安全力量有明确关联，且不对平民造成过度伤害。报道称，<strong>当晚美军对霍尔木兹海峡附近的哈尔克岛（Kharg Island）超过50处目标实施了打击，但并未轰炸石油基础设施。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">五角大楼发言人Sean Parnell表示：&#34;整个国防部服从总统的指令，将坚定执行他的军事目标。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_368435596\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街：一眼盯屏幕，一眼盯Truth Social</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，这一天有着特殊的节奏——<strong>它不像传统地缘冲突那样由战场消息主导，而是几乎完全跟随着特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖子起伏。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据华尔街见闻梳理：过去12小时，市场对每一条声明、推文或媒体报道均作出剧烈反应：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股盘前，</strong>特朗普设定的最终期限美东时间7日晚8点正在逼近，威胁言论一度推升油价超3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股早盘，</strong>消息称伊朗不再直接与美国沟通。而后美股在周二早盘跌幅扩大，纳斯达克100指数跌幅扩大至1.5%，原油进一步走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股午盘，</strong>美媒援引知情人士的消息称，过去24小时内，美国与伊朗之间的谈判已取得一线进展，油价又告回落。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股尾盘，</strong>巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹称，请求特朗普将最后期限推迟两周，三大美股指再度收窄跌幅，标普和纳指惊险收涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股盘后，</strong>特朗普延长伊朗谈判的最后期限，称伊朗同意开通霍尔木兹海峡。WTI原油期货跌幅扩大，标普股指期货、道指期货涨幅扩大至1.7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e08f7a6746266ca64eaeb54d1a96a8b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"663\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">资产管理公司OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官Peter Boockvar形容那种感觉：<strong>&#34;令人头晕目眩。一只眼睛盯着行情屏幕，另一只眼睛盯着特朗普的Truth Social页面。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这期间，花旗集团（Citigroup）则启动了类似总统大选期间的应急协议，暂停了交易工具的细微代码更新等可能拖慢系统运行的操作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>技术投资者、企业高管们的通讯群组也在特朗普发帖后迅速炸开。</strong>前特朗普顾问、现任企业顾问Bryan Lanza在度假期间仍接到来自能源和金融业客户的大量咨询，他力劝各方保持冷静，认为特朗普不会真正兑现威胁。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">总体而言，华尔街的共识与此前多次特朗普式截止日类似：视其为谈判手段，而非真实行动的前奏。</p><h2 id=\"id_3302921811\" style=\"text-align: left;\">支持者动摇，盟友罕见发声</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">压力不仅来自市场，还来自特朗普政治圈的内部。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据报道，<strong>白宫内部有官员私下对总统的帖子感到不安，认为其对外交事务的过度关注正在分散对国内议题的注意力，而这些议题才是赢得民心的关键。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交媒体上，拥有逾200万粉丝的网络媒体人Tim Pool在接受采访时说：&#34;他是在试图表现得具有威胁性和疯狂。&#34;他警告称，若特朗普未能兑现，&#34;我们将看到皇帝没有穿衣服……这将是他最后的赌注。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">欧洲盟友的批评则更加直接。法国外长Jean-Noël Barrot公开表态：&#34;一个文明，不能被抹去。&#34;特朗普最亲密的欧洲盟友之一、意大利总理Giorgia Meloni也罕见发声批评：&#34;必须明确区分一个政权的责任和数百万普通公民的命运。伊朗平民不能，也不应该为其领导人的罪行付出代价。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">教皇Leo与演员Ben Stiller也在各自的公开渠道呼吁停止升级。</p><h2 id=\"id_3070354447\" style=\"text-align: left;\">巴基斯坦递上&#34;台阶&#34;，特朗普接下</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>外交上的转机，出现在午后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据《华尔街日报》报道，<strong>当地时间4月7日下午3时刚过，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹（Shehbaz Sharif）公开呼吁特朗普将最后期限延长两周，并推动美伊停火，同时敦促德黑兰在同期重开霍尔木兹海峡以示善意。白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt随即回应：&#34;总统已获悉该提案，将予以回复。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普随后告知福克斯新闻，美方正处于&#34;激烈谈判&#34;之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整个下午，特朗普与核心幕僚在椭圆形办公室闭门研商，听取各方利弊分析。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，美东时间当晚6时32分，特朗普在Truth Social发文，宣布暂停预定的打击行动：&#34;在伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即且安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡的前提下，我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社综合报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会随后发表声明，确认将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，同时表明伊方对美方&#34;抱有完全的不信任&#34;。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹证实，双方同意即日起在所有地点立即停火，并邀请美伊双方代表团于4月10日赴伊斯兰堡进一步谈判。</p><h2 id=\"id_3891235451\" style=\"text-align: left;\">停火之后：根本问题悬而未决</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">《纽约时报》援引分析人士观点指出，<strong>这场短期的停火或许是特朗普极限施压战术的一次战术成功，但五周战事留下的根本分歧并未因此消解。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题清单相当具体。伊朗目前仍持有约970磅60%浓缩度的铀——这正是此次战争在名义上的导火索之一。报道指出，若谈判最终无法将其移出伊朗境外，特朗普将在&#34;每天耗资数十亿美元&#34;的战争中，获得比奥巴马政府2015年核协议更少的成果。彼时，伊朗依据协议将其97%的核存量运出了境外。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，伊朗展示了在承受逾1.3万次精准打击后仍能维持非对称战争的能力——封锁石油运输、对美国基础设施发动网络攻击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国内部同样出现裂痕。据报道，<strong>特朗普的部分早期支持者开始公开指责总统及副总统万斯违背了&#34;不让美国深陷中东烂仗&#34;的竞选承诺。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周之后，当停火到期，谈判能否取得实质进展，目前没有人能给出确定答案。正如Fontaine所言：<strong>&#34;也许这最终会奏效。但也有可能，这场战争结束时，美国和世界的处境比开战前更糟。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，部分美国官员也已表达了担忧：若伊朗无法完全满足特朗普的要求，两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。</p><h2 id=\"id_1915621277\">停火条款：伊朗的&#34;十点计划&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而停火的达成，并不意味着分歧的弥合，而真正的棘手之处藏在谈判条款里。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会公布了通过巴基斯坦递交给美方的十点停战条款，核心内容包括：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">霍尔木兹海峡须在与伊朗武装力量协调下实现&#34;受控通行&#34;，<strong>伊朗享有主导地位</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国作战部队从该地区所有基地和部署点全面撤出；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">解除针对伊朗的所有一级和二级制裁，撤销相关联合国安理会及国际原子能机构决议；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">解冻伊朗所有被冻结海外资产；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>承认伊朗的铀浓缩权利</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据评估结果全额赔偿伊朗战争损失；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">结束对&#34;抵抗轴心&#34;所有成员的战争，终结以色列的军事行动。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据央视新闻报道，一名匿名地区官员还透露，<strong>停火计划包括允许伊朗和阿曼对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，伊朗将把这笔费用用于战后重建。这将是这条国际水道历史上首次征收通行费。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗外长阿拉格齐（Abbas Araghchi）发表声明，宣布霍尔木兹海峡将在两周内实现安全通航，但未给出具体恢复日期。他在声明中强调，通行将在&#34;伊朗武装力量&#34;的管控下进行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对此，美国新安全中心（Center for a New American Security）首席执行官Richard Fontaine向《纽约时报》表示：<strong>&#34;伊朗仍然控制着霍尔木兹海峡，而战前并非如此。我很难相信，美国和国际社会能够无限期接受伊朗掌控这一关键能源咽喉的局面。这将是比战前更糟糕的结果。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fontaine还指出，伊朗提交的十点计划&#34;读起来像是伊朗战前的愿望清单&#34;，而特朗普在4月7日晚间同意将其作为谈判基础——尽管仅仅数周前，他还在要求伊朗&#34;无条件投降&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_1079922803\">特朗普极端言论引发批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。<strong>这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在总统及其支持者看来，这都是特朗普混乱谈判风格的一部分，旨在促使他自导自演的冲突结束，并说服德黑兰开放海峡。一些总统顾问甚至认为，特朗普不断升级的言论是一种谈判策略，表明他更倾向于寻找摆脱战争的出路，而不是真的要发动毁灭性袭击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这种“冲动且不可预测”的领导风格，正面临前所未有的质疑。核冲突历史学家亚历克斯·韦勒斯坦（Alex Wellerstein）表示，即使威胁最终未兑现，这种暴力言论也损害了美国作为谈判者的信誉及其国际地位，<strong>让世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”，而非“可靠的伙伴”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国国内的批评声浪也随之高涨。右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森（Tucker Carlson）表示，总统的复活节信息“破坏了基督教最神圣的日子”，“在各个层面都令人厌恶。”他直言，这种威胁使用美国军事力量摧毁他国民用基础设施的行为，是“战争罪，是对该国人民的道德犯罪”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前国家反恐中心主任乔·肯特（Joe Kent）也在X上发文指出：“特朗普认为他在威胁伊朗使其毁灭，但现在美国却处于危险之中。如果他试图根除伊朗文明，美国将不再被视为世界稳定的力量，而是混乱的制造者——这将有效终结我们作为世界超级大国的地位。”即便一些国会共和党人，如威斯康星州参议员罗恩·约翰逊（Ron Johnson），也表示“希望并祈祷特朗普总统只是虚张声势”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管特朗普此前有过类似的“剧本”——通过不断升级的威胁达成某种协议并宣布胜利。但他不断升级的暴力言论暴露出一种挫败感，即他未能通过此前推迟的轰炸基础设施的最后期限达到目的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从惊魂到TACO！特朗普震惊世界的12小时</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从惊魂到TACO！特朗普震惊世界的12小时\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-08 11:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>从威胁“整个文明将消亡”，到“停火两周”，特朗普的这场戏剧性逆转只花了十个小时二十六分钟。在这期间，全球市场和油价随着他的每条推文剧烈摇摆。然而，短暂的停火之下，美伊根本性的问题依然悬而未决。同时，特朗普一次次的极端言论遭致批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间2026年4月7日，星期二，上午8时06分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social发出一条简短的帖子：&#34;今晚，整个文明将消亡，永远无法重建。&#34;他给伊朗设定了一个最后期限：当晚8时前，要么谈成协议，要么承受后果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这条帖子随即在全球范围内引发连锁反应——从德黑兰的普通居民，到华尔街的交易大厅，再到欧洲外交官的紧急电话会议。<strong>这是特朗普执政以来最具戏剧性的一次极限施压。</strong>此外，《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。<strong>这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而距离他自己设定的截止时间还剩不到90分钟时，特朗普又再度发文，宣布同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸行动两周。据新华社报道，特朗普当晚在社交媒体发文称：&#34;我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从&#34;整个文明将消亡&#34;，到&#34;暂停两周&#34;，中间只隔了十个小时二十六分钟。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这次美伊短暂的停火，与其说是危机解除，不如说是将更为深层的矛盾暂时搁置。若双方无法达成协议，<strong>两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。</strong>媒体分析称，美伊之间多年来的根本性问题依然悬而未决，核心症结之一便是伊朗核计划中不断增长的浓缩铀库存。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8fa4fbac71aeaa7e6503957c737d66\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4207273577\" style=\"text-align: left;\">一条帖子，世界屏住呼吸</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当特朗普的帖子出现在屏幕上时，全球各地的反应几乎在同一时间启动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在伊朗，许多居民开始为停电和断气做准备。</strong>据《华尔街日报》报道，有人翻出旧式野营炉，重新灌满油罐。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">帖子发出不到30分钟，据该媒体援引阿拉伯国家官员的信息，伊朗官员告知埃及，德黑兰已中断与美方谈判代表的直接联系。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队也随即发出警告：一旦美国越过&#34;红线&#34;，伊方将&#34;不再克制&#34;，并将沙特阿美、延布石油设施及阿联酋富查伊拉输油管道列为潜在打击目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>前以色列总理Ehud Olmert读到这条消息时，正值以色列防空警报响起，他躲进自家防空洞</strong>，在警报声中表态：&#34;我倾向于不按字面意思接受特朗普总统的声明。我希望他的意思是摧毁政权，而不是摧毁伊朗文明。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，美东时间上午9时，美国国防部长Pete Hegseth与参谋长联席会议主席Dan Caine将军接入与中央司令部司令Brad Cooper上将的每日视频会议。据报道<strong>，军事规划人员此前已在准备针对伊朗能源基础设施的潜在打击方案，并调出了已经过军事律师审核的目标清单。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但该清单的实际规模，远小于特朗普帖子中所描述的&#34;伊朗每一座发电厂都将燃烧爆炸&#34;。据悉，每一个目标均须满足合法性要求：与伊朗军事和安全力量有明确关联，且不对平民造成过度伤害。报道称，<strong>当晚美军对霍尔木兹海峡附近的哈尔克岛（Kharg Island）超过50处目标实施了打击，但并未轰炸石油基础设施。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">五角大楼发言人Sean Parnell表示：&#34;整个国防部服从总统的指令，将坚定执行他的军事目标。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_368435596\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街：一眼盯屏幕，一眼盯Truth Social</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，这一天有着特殊的节奏——<strong>它不像传统地缘冲突那样由战场消息主导，而是几乎完全跟随着特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖子起伏。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据华尔街见闻梳理：过去12小时，市场对每一条声明、推文或媒体报道均作出剧烈反应：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股盘前，</strong>特朗普设定的最终期限美东时间7日晚8点正在逼近，威胁言论一度推升油价超3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股早盘，</strong>消息称伊朗不再直接与美国沟通。而后美股在周二早盘跌幅扩大，纳斯达克100指数跌幅扩大至1.5%，原油进一步走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股午盘，</strong>美媒援引知情人士的消息称，过去24小时内，美国与伊朗之间的谈判已取得一线进展，油价又告回落。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股尾盘，</strong>巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹称，请求特朗普将最后期限推迟两周，三大美股指再度收窄跌幅，标普和纳指惊险收涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股盘后，</strong>特朗普延长伊朗谈判的最后期限，称伊朗同意开通霍尔木兹海峡。WTI原油期货跌幅扩大，标普股指期货、道指期货涨幅扩大至1.7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e08f7a6746266ca64eaeb54d1a96a8b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"663\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">资产管理公司OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官Peter Boockvar形容那种感觉：<strong>&#34;令人头晕目眩。一只眼睛盯着行情屏幕，另一只眼睛盯着特朗普的Truth Social页面。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这期间，花旗集团（Citigroup）则启动了类似总统大选期间的应急协议，暂停了交易工具的细微代码更新等可能拖慢系统运行的操作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>技术投资者、企业高管们的通讯群组也在特朗普发帖后迅速炸开。</strong>前特朗普顾问、现任企业顾问Bryan Lanza在度假期间仍接到来自能源和金融业客户的大量咨询，他力劝各方保持冷静，认为特朗普不会真正兑现威胁。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">总体而言，华尔街的共识与此前多次特朗普式截止日类似：视其为谈判手段，而非真实行动的前奏。</p><h2 id=\"id_3302921811\" style=\"text-align: left;\">支持者动摇，盟友罕见发声</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">压力不仅来自市场，还来自特朗普政治圈的内部。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据报道，<strong>白宫内部有官员私下对总统的帖子感到不安，认为其对外交事务的过度关注正在分散对国内议题的注意力，而这些议题才是赢得民心的关键。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交媒体上，拥有逾200万粉丝的网络媒体人Tim Pool在接受采访时说：&#34;他是在试图表现得具有威胁性和疯狂。&#34;他警告称，若特朗普未能兑现，&#34;我们将看到皇帝没有穿衣服……这将是他最后的赌注。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">欧洲盟友的批评则更加直接。法国外长Jean-Noël Barrot公开表态：&#34;一个文明，不能被抹去。&#34;特朗普最亲密的欧洲盟友之一、意大利总理Giorgia Meloni也罕见发声批评：&#34;必须明确区分一个政权的责任和数百万普通公民的命运。伊朗平民不能，也不应该为其领导人的罪行付出代价。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">教皇Leo与演员Ben Stiller也在各自的公开渠道呼吁停止升级。</p><h2 id=\"id_3070354447\" style=\"text-align: left;\">巴基斯坦递上&#34;台阶&#34;，特朗普接下</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>外交上的转机，出现在午后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据《华尔街日报》报道，<strong>当地时间4月7日下午3时刚过，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹（Shehbaz Sharif）公开呼吁特朗普将最后期限延长两周，并推动美伊停火，同时敦促德黑兰在同期重开霍尔木兹海峡以示善意。白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt随即回应：&#34;总统已获悉该提案，将予以回复。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普随后告知福克斯新闻，美方正处于&#34;激烈谈判&#34;之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整个下午，特朗普与核心幕僚在椭圆形办公室闭门研商，听取各方利弊分析。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，美东时间当晚6时32分，特朗普在Truth Social发文，宣布暂停预定的打击行动：&#34;在伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即且安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡的前提下，我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社综合报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会随后发表声明，确认将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，同时表明伊方对美方&#34;抱有完全的不信任&#34;。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹证实，双方同意即日起在所有地点立即停火，并邀请美伊双方代表团于4月10日赴伊斯兰堡进一步谈判。</p><h2 id=\"id_3891235451\" style=\"text-align: left;\">停火之后：根本问题悬而未决</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">《纽约时报》援引分析人士观点指出，<strong>这场短期的停火或许是特朗普极限施压战术的一次战术成功，但五周战事留下的根本分歧并未因此消解。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题清单相当具体。伊朗目前仍持有约970磅60%浓缩度的铀——这正是此次战争在名义上的导火索之一。报道指出，若谈判最终无法将其移出伊朗境外，特朗普将在&#34;每天耗资数十亿美元&#34;的战争中，获得比奥巴马政府2015年核协议更少的成果。彼时，伊朗依据协议将其97%的核存量运出了境外。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，伊朗展示了在承受逾1.3万次精准打击后仍能维持非对称战争的能力——封锁石油运输、对美国基础设施发动网络攻击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国内部同样出现裂痕。据报道，<strong>特朗普的部分早期支持者开始公开指责总统及副总统万斯违背了&#34;不让美国深陷中东烂仗&#34;的竞选承诺。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周之后，当停火到期，谈判能否取得实质进展，目前没有人能给出确定答案。正如Fontaine所言：<strong>&#34;也许这最终会奏效。但也有可能，这场战争结束时，美国和世界的处境比开战前更糟。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，部分美国官员也已表达了担忧：若伊朗无法完全满足特朗普的要求，两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。</p><h2 id=\"id_1915621277\">停火条款：伊朗的&#34;十点计划&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而停火的达成，并不意味着分歧的弥合，而真正的棘手之处藏在谈判条款里。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会公布了通过巴基斯坦递交给美方的十点停战条款，核心内容包括：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">霍尔木兹海峡须在与伊朗武装力量协调下实现&#34;受控通行&#34;，<strong>伊朗享有主导地位</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国作战部队从该地区所有基地和部署点全面撤出；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">解除针对伊朗的所有一级和二级制裁，撤销相关联合国安理会及国际原子能机构决议；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">解冻伊朗所有被冻结海外资产；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>承认伊朗的铀浓缩权利</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据评估结果全额赔偿伊朗战争损失；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">结束对&#34;抵抗轴心&#34;所有成员的战争，终结以色列的军事行动。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据央视新闻报道，一名匿名地区官员还透露，<strong>停火计划包括允许伊朗和阿曼对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，伊朗将把这笔费用用于战后重建。这将是这条国际水道历史上首次征收通行费。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗外长阿拉格齐（Abbas Araghchi）发表声明，宣布霍尔木兹海峡将在两周内实现安全通航，但未给出具体恢复日期。他在声明中强调，通行将在&#34;伊朗武装力量&#34;的管控下进行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对此，美国新安全中心（Center for a New American Security）首席执行官Richard Fontaine向《纽约时报》表示：<strong>&#34;伊朗仍然控制着霍尔木兹海峡，而战前并非如此。我很难相信，美国和国际社会能够无限期接受伊朗掌控这一关键能源咽喉的局面。这将是比战前更糟糕的结果。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fontaine还指出，伊朗提交的十点计划&#34;读起来像是伊朗战前的愿望清单&#34;，而特朗普在4月7日晚间同意将其作为谈判基础——尽管仅仅数周前，他还在要求伊朗&#34;无条件投降&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_1079922803\">特朗普极端言论引发批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。<strong>这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在总统及其支持者看来，这都是特朗普混乱谈判风格的一部分，旨在促使他自导自演的冲突结束，并说服德黑兰开放海峡。一些总统顾问甚至认为，特朗普不断升级的言论是一种谈判策略，表明他更倾向于寻找摆脱战争的出路，而不是真的要发动毁灭性袭击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这种“冲动且不可预测”的领导风格，正面临前所未有的质疑。核冲突历史学家亚历克斯·韦勒斯坦（Alex Wellerstein）表示，即使威胁最终未兑现，这种暴力言论也损害了美国作为谈判者的信誉及其国际地位，<strong>让世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”，而非“可靠的伙伴”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国国内的批评声浪也随之高涨。右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森（Tucker Carlson）表示，总统的复活节信息“破坏了基督教最神圣的日子”，“在各个层面都令人厌恶。”他直言，这种威胁使用美国军事力量摧毁他国民用基础设施的行为，是“战争罪，是对该国人民的道德犯罪”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前国家反恐中心主任乔·肯特（Joe Kent）也在X上发文指出：“特朗普认为他在威胁伊朗使其毁灭，但现在美国却处于危险之中。如果他试图根除伊朗文明，美国将不再被视为世界稳定的力量，而是混乱的制造者——这将有效终结我们作为世界超级大国的地位。”即便一些国会共和党人，如威斯康星州参议员罗恩·约翰逊（Ron Johnson），也表示“希望并祈祷特朗普总统只是虚张声势”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管特朗普此前有过类似的“剧本”——通过不断升级的威胁达成某种协议并宣布胜利。但他不断升级的暴力言论暴露出一种挫败感，即他未能通过此前推迟的轰炸基础设施的最后期限达到目的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8fa4fbac71aeaa7e6503957c737d66","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4209":"餐馆",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769455","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625967899","content_text":"从威胁“整个文明将消亡”，到“停火两周”，特朗普的这场戏剧性逆转只花了十个小时二十六分钟。在这期间，全球市场和油价随着他的每条推文剧烈摇摆。然而，短暂的停火之下，美伊根本性的问题依然悬而未决。同时，特朗普一次次的极端言论遭致批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”。美东时间2026年4月7日，星期二，上午8时06分。特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social发出一条简短的帖子：\"今晚，整个文明将消亡，永远无法重建。\"他给伊朗设定了一个最后期限：当晚8时前，要么谈成协议，要么承受后果。这条帖子随即在全球范围内引发连锁反应——从德黑兰的普通居民，到华尔街的交易大厅，再到欧洲外交官的紧急电话会议。这是特朗普执政以来最具戏剧性的一次极限施压。此外，《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。而距离他自己设定的截止时间还剩不到90分钟时，特朗普又再度发文，宣布同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸行动两周。据新华社报道，特朗普当晚在社交媒体发文称：\"我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。从\"整个文明将消亡\"，到\"暂停两周\"，中间只隔了十个小时二十六分钟。然而，这次美伊短暂的停火，与其说是危机解除，不如说是将更为深层的矛盾暂时搁置。若双方无法达成协议，两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。媒体分析称，美伊之间多年来的根本性问题依然悬而未决，核心症结之一便是伊朗核计划中不断增长的浓缩铀库存。一条帖子，世界屏住呼吸当特朗普的帖子出现在屏幕上时，全球各地的反应几乎在同一时间启动。在伊朗，许多居民开始为停电和断气做准备。据《华尔街日报》报道，有人翻出旧式野营炉，重新灌满油罐。帖子发出不到30分钟，据该媒体援引阿拉伯国家官员的信息，伊朗官员告知埃及，德黑兰已中断与美方谈判代表的直接联系。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队也随即发出警告：一旦美国越过\"红线\"，伊方将\"不再克制\"，并将沙特阿美、延布石油设施及阿联酋富查伊拉输油管道列为潜在打击目标。前以色列总理Ehud Olmert读到这条消息时，正值以色列防空警报响起，他躲进自家防空洞，在警报声中表态：\"我倾向于不按字面意思接受特朗普总统的声明。我希望他的意思是摧毁政权，而不是摧毁伊朗文明。\"与此同时，美东时间上午9时，美国国防部长Pete Hegseth与参谋长联席会议主席Dan Caine将军接入与中央司令部司令Brad Cooper上将的每日视频会议。据报道，军事规划人员此前已在准备针对伊朗能源基础设施的潜在打击方案，并调出了已经过军事律师审核的目标清单。但该清单的实际规模，远小于特朗普帖子中所描述的\"伊朗每一座发电厂都将燃烧爆炸\"。据悉，每一个目标均须满足合法性要求：与伊朗军事和安全力量有明确关联，且不对平民造成过度伤害。报道称，当晚美军对霍尔木兹海峡附近的哈尔克岛（Kharg Island）超过50处目标实施了打击，但并未轰炸石油基础设施。五角大楼发言人Sean Parnell表示：\"整个国防部服从总统的指令，将坚定执行他的军事目标。\"华尔街：一眼盯屏幕，一眼盯Truth Social对于市场而言，这一天有着特殊的节奏——它不像传统地缘冲突那样由战场消息主导，而是几乎完全跟随着特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖子起伏。据华尔街见闻梳理：过去12小时，市场对每一条声明、推文或媒体报道均作出剧烈反应：美股盘前，特朗普设定的最终期限美东时间7日晚8点正在逼近，威胁言论一度推升油价超3%。美股早盘，消息称伊朗不再直接与美国沟通。而后美股在周二早盘跌幅扩大，纳斯达克100指数跌幅扩大至1.5%，原油进一步走高。美股午盘，美媒援引知情人士的消息称，过去24小时内，美国与伊朗之间的谈判已取得一线进展，油价又告回落。美股尾盘，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹称，请求特朗普将最后期限推迟两周，三大美股指再度收窄跌幅，标普和纳指惊险收涨。美股盘后，特朗普延长伊朗谈判的最后期限，称伊朗同意开通霍尔木兹海峡。WTI原油期货跌幅扩大，标普股指期货、道指期货涨幅扩大至1.7%。资产管理公司OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官Peter Boockvar形容那种感觉：\"令人头晕目眩。一只眼睛盯着行情屏幕，另一只眼睛盯着特朗普的Truth Social页面。\"在这期间，花旗集团（Citigroup）则启动了类似总统大选期间的应急协议，暂停了交易工具的细微代码更新等可能拖慢系统运行的操作。技术投资者、企业高管们的通讯群组也在特朗普发帖后迅速炸开。前特朗普顾问、现任企业顾问Bryan Lanza在度假期间仍接到来自能源和金融业客户的大量咨询，他力劝各方保持冷静，认为特朗普不会真正兑现威胁。总体而言，华尔街的共识与此前多次特朗普式截止日类似：视其为谈判手段，而非真实行动的前奏。支持者动摇，盟友罕见发声压力不仅来自市场，还来自特朗普政治圈的内部。据报道，白宫内部有官员私下对总统的帖子感到不安，认为其对外交事务的过度关注正在分散对国内议题的注意力，而这些议题才是赢得民心的关键。社交媒体上，拥有逾200万粉丝的网络媒体人Tim Pool在接受采访时说：\"他是在试图表现得具有威胁性和疯狂。\"他警告称，若特朗普未能兑现，\"我们将看到皇帝没有穿衣服……这将是他最后的赌注。\"欧洲盟友的批评则更加直接。法国外长Jean-Noël Barrot公开表态：\"一个文明，不能被抹去。\"特朗普最亲密的欧洲盟友之一、意大利总理Giorgia Meloni也罕见发声批评：\"必须明确区分一个政权的责任和数百万普通公民的命运。伊朗平民不能，也不应该为其领导人的罪行付出代价。\"教皇Leo与演员Ben Stiller也在各自的公开渠道呼吁停止升级。巴基斯坦递上\"台阶\"，特朗普接下外交上的转机，出现在午后。据《华尔街日报》报道，当地时间4月7日下午3时刚过，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹（Shehbaz Sharif）公开呼吁特朗普将最后期限延长两周，并推动美伊停火，同时敦促德黑兰在同期重开霍尔木兹海峡以示善意。白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt随即回应：\"总统已获悉该提案，将予以回复。\"特朗普随后告知福克斯新闻，美方正处于\"激烈谈判\"之中。整个下午，特朗普与核心幕僚在椭圆形办公室闭门研商，听取各方利弊分析。据新华社报道，美东时间当晚6时32分，特朗普在Truth Social发文，宣布暂停预定的打击行动：\"在伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即且安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡的前提下，我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。\"据新华社综合报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会随后发表声明，确认将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，同时表明伊方对美方\"抱有完全的不信任\"。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹证实，双方同意即日起在所有地点立即停火，并邀请美伊双方代表团于4月10日赴伊斯兰堡进一步谈判。停火之后：根本问题悬而未决《纽约时报》援引分析人士观点指出，这场短期的停火或许是特朗普极限施压战术的一次战术成功，但五周战事留下的根本分歧并未因此消解。问题清单相当具体。伊朗目前仍持有约970磅60%浓缩度的铀——这正是此次战争在名义上的导火索之一。报道指出，若谈判最终无法将其移出伊朗境外，特朗普将在\"每天耗资数十亿美元\"的战争中，获得比奥巴马政府2015年核协议更少的成果。彼时，伊朗依据协议将其97%的核存量运出了境外。此外，伊朗展示了在承受逾1.3万次精准打击后仍能维持非对称战争的能力——封锁石油运输、对美国基础设施发动网络攻击。美国内部同样出现裂痕。据报道，特朗普的部分早期支持者开始公开指责总统及副总统万斯违背了\"不让美国深陷中东烂仗\"的竞选承诺。两周之后，当停火到期，谈判能否取得实质进展，目前没有人能给出确定答案。正如Fontaine所言：\"也许这最终会奏效。但也有可能，这场战争结束时，美国和世界的处境比开战前更糟。\"据新华社报道，部分美国官员也已表达了担忧：若伊朗无法完全满足特朗普的要求，两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。停火条款：伊朗的\"十点计划\"而停火的达成，并不意味着分歧的弥合，而真正的棘手之处藏在谈判条款里。据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会公布了通过巴基斯坦递交给美方的十点停战条款，核心内容包括：霍尔木兹海峡须在与伊朗武装力量协调下实现\"受控通行\"，伊朗享有主导地位；美国作战部队从该地区所有基地和部署点全面撤出；解除针对伊朗的所有一级和二级制裁，撤销相关联合国安理会及国际原子能机构决议；解冻伊朗所有被冻结海外资产；承认伊朗的铀浓缩权利；根据评估结果全额赔偿伊朗战争损失；结束对\"抵抗轴心\"所有成员的战争，终结以色列的军事行动。据央视新闻报道，一名匿名地区官员还透露，停火计划包括允许伊朗和阿曼对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，伊朗将把这笔费用用于战后重建。这将是这条国际水道历史上首次征收通行费。伊朗外长阿拉格齐（Abbas Araghchi）发表声明，宣布霍尔木兹海峡将在两周内实现安全通航，但未给出具体恢复日期。他在声明中强调，通行将在\"伊朗武装力量\"的管控下进行。对此，美国新安全中心（Center for a New American Security）首席执行官Richard Fontaine向《纽约时报》表示：\"伊朗仍然控制着霍尔木兹海峡，而战前并非如此。我很难相信，美国和国际社会能够无限期接受伊朗掌控这一关键能源咽喉的局面。这将是比战前更糟糕的结果。\"Fontaine还指出，伊朗提交的十点计划\"读起来像是伊朗战前的愿望清单\"，而特朗普在4月7日晚间同意将其作为谈判基础——尽管仅仅数周前，他还在要求伊朗\"无条件投降\"。特朗普极端言论引发批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。在总统及其支持者看来，这都是特朗普混乱谈判风格的一部分，旨在促使他自导自演的冲突结束，并说服德黑兰开放海峡。一些总统顾问甚至认为，特朗普不断升级的言论是一种谈判策略，表明他更倾向于寻找摆脱战争的出路，而不是真的要发动毁灭性袭击。然而，这种“冲动且不可预测”的领导风格，正面临前所未有的质疑。核冲突历史学家亚历克斯·韦勒斯坦（Alex Wellerstein）表示，即使威胁最终未兑现，这种暴力言论也损害了美国作为谈判者的信誉及其国际地位，让世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”，而非“可靠的伙伴”。美国国内的批评声浪也随之高涨。右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森（Tucker Carlson）表示，总统的复活节信息“破坏了基督教最神圣的日子”，“在各个层面都令人厌恶。”他直言，这种威胁使用美国军事力量摧毁他国民用基础设施的行为，是“战争罪，是对该国人民的道德犯罪”。前国家反恐中心主任乔·肯特（Joe Kent）也在X上发文指出：“特朗普认为他在威胁伊朗使其毁灭，但现在美国却处于危险之中。如果他试图根除伊朗文明，美国将不再被视为世界稳定的力量，而是混乱的制造者——这将有效终结我们作为世界超级大国的地位。”即便一些国会共和党人，如威斯康星州参议员罗恩·约翰逊（Ron Johnson），也表示“希望并祈祷特朗普总统只是虚张声势”。尽管特朗普此前有过类似的“剧本”——通过不断升级的威胁达成某种协议并宣布胜利。但他不断升级的暴力言论暴露出一种挫败感，即他未能通过此前推迟的轰炸基础设施的最后期限达到目的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MNQ2612":2,"NDX":2,".DJI":2,"NQmain":2,"ESmain":2,".SPX":2,"MNQmain":2,"YMmain":2,"MNQ2603":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543821100204600,"gmtCreate":1773757279612,"gmtModify":1773757281553,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543821100204600","repostId":"1127585708","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127585708","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1773754387,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127585708?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-17 21:33","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 英伟达重申铜技术路线，COHERENT盘中大跌5.55%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127585708","media":"异动解读","summary":"光学器件公司COHERENT(COHR)今日盘中股价大跌5.55%，引起了市场的关注。消息面上，英伟达(NVDA)CEO黄仁勋在GTC演讲中重申，其即将推出的Vera Rubin Ultra和Feynman产品线将同时采用铜技术和共封装光学技术，两种方案将并行推进。这一表态被市场解读为对光学互连技术需求的预期有所调整，对COHERENT等光学器件公司构成压力。摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔指出，市场对共封装光学技术的期待可能“超前于下游产业链的准备情况”。英伟达双线并进的策略，意味着铜互连技术在未来一段时间内仍将扮演重要角色，这可能影响了投资者对COHERENT等公司短期增长前景的看法。","content":"<p>光学器件公司COHERENT(COHR)今日盘中股价大跌5.55%，引起了市场的关注。</p><p>消息面上，英伟达(NVDA)CEO黄仁勋在GTC演讲中重申，其即将推出的Vera Rubin Ultra和Feynman产品线将同时采用铜技术和共封装光学技术，两种方案将并行推进。这一表态被市场解读为对光学互连技术需求的预期有所调整，对COHERENT等光学器件公司构成压力。</p><p>摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔指出，市场对共封装光学技术的期待可能“超前于下游产业链的准备情况”。英伟达双线并进的策略，意味着铜互连技术在未来一段时间内仍将扮演重要角色，这可能影响了投资者对COHERENT等公司短期增长前景的看法。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 英伟达重申铜技术路线，COHERENT盘中大跌5.55%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | 英伟达重申铜技术路线，COHERENT盘中大跌5.55%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-17 21:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>光学器件公司COHERENT(COHR)今日盘中股价大跌5.55%，引起了市场的关注。</p><p>消息面上，英伟达(NVDA)CEO黄仁勋在GTC演讲中重申，其即将推出的Vera Rubin Ultra和Feynman产品线将同时采用铜技术和共封装光学技术，两种方案将并行推进。这一表态被市场解读为对光学互连技术需求的预期有所调整，对COHERENT等光学器件公司构成压力。</p><p>摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔指出，市场对共封装光学技术的期待可能“超前于下游产业链的准备情况”。英伟达双线并进的策略，意味着铜互连技术在未来一段时间内仍将扮演重要角色，这可能影响了投资者对COHERENT等公司短期增长前景的看法。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COHR":"Coherent"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127585708","content_text":"光学器件公司COHERENT(COHR)今日盘中股价大跌5.55%，引起了市场的关注。消息面上，英伟达(NVDA)CEO黄仁勋在GTC演讲中重申，其即将推出的Vera Rubin Ultra和Feynman产品线将同时采用铜技术和共封装光学技术，两种方案将并行推进。这一表态被市场解读为对光学互连技术需求的预期有所调整，对COHERENT等光学器件公司构成压力。摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔指出，市场对共封装光学技术的期待可能“超前于下游产业链的准备情况”。英伟达双线并进的策略，意味着铜互连技术在未来一段时间内仍将扮演重要角色，这可能影响了投资者对COHERENT等公司短期增长前景的看法。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COHR":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528754592911552,"gmtCreate":1770121639785,"gmtModify":1770121642159,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528754592911552","repostId":"2608816029","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2608816029","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770079151,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2608816029?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-03 08:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"绩后大涨！AI需求爆表，泰瑞达Q4强劲增收增利、Q1指引超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608816029","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，半导体测试公司泰瑞达公布了2025财年第四季度业绩超出预期。泰瑞达2025 年全年营收为 31.9 亿美元，比 2024 年增长 13%，调整后每股收益为 3.96 美元，而上一年为 3.22 美元。四季度，泰瑞达的库存周转天数为74天，低于上一季度的104天，比五年平均水平低15天。展望未来，泰瑞达对2026年第一季度营收的预期中值为12亿美元，高于分析师此前预测的9.54亿美元。业绩公布后，截至发稿，泰瑞达股价周一盘后大涨23.6%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，半导体测试公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TER\">泰瑞达</a>(TER.US)公布了2025财年第四季度业绩超出预期。<strong>Q4营收同比增长43.9%至10.8亿美元，高于分析师预期的9.756亿美元(超出预期11%)。其非GAAP每股收益为1.80美元，高于分析师的普遍预期1.38 美元。</strong></p><p>半导体测试是该公司最大的业务部门，本季度创造了 8.83 亿美元的收入，而产品测试和机器人业务分别贡献了 1.1 亿美元和 8900 万美元的收入。</p><p>调整后营业利润为3.14亿美元，高于分析师预期的2.498亿美元(调整后利润率29%)。营业利润率为27.1%，高于去年同期的20.4%。自由现金流利润率为20.2%，低于去年同期的29.9%。</p><p>泰瑞达2025 年全年营收为 31.9 亿美元，比 2024 年增长 13%，调整后每股收益为 3.96 美元，而上一年为 3.22 美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deca2f3956b0990ab307bf0590d3be6a\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p><strong>四季度，泰瑞达的库存周转天数(DIO)为74天，低于上一季度的104天，比五年平均水平低15天。</strong>目前来看，这些数据显示库存健康的迹象。DIO是芯片制造商的一项重要指标，因为它反映了企业的资本密集度以及半导体供需的周期性波动。在供应紧张的环境下，库存往往保持稳定，使芯片制造商能够行使定价权。反之，DIO 的持续上升可能预示着需求疲软，如果库存继续增加，公司可能不得不缩减产量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d03ff656d935460fb036e54d67fa39ee\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"435\"/></p><p><strong>展望未来，泰瑞达对2026年第一季度营收的预期中值为12亿美元，高于分析师此前预测的9.54亿美元。预计2026 年第一季度调整后每股收益预期中值为 2.07 美元，高于分析师预期的 1.25 美元。</strong></p><p>泰瑞达是一家总部位于美国的半导体及其他技术和器件自动化测试设备供应商，其客户包括大多数主要芯片制造商。泰瑞达过去两年的年化营收增长率为 9.2%，高于其五年平均水平，表明其需求近期有所加速增长。分析师和市场文章强调，人工智能芯片测试需求的激增是半导体测试量和收入增长的催化剂，这增强了投资者对人工智能利好因素持续存在的信心。</p><p>展望未来，卖方分析师预计未来12个月营收将增长21.8%，较过去两年有所提升。这一预测令人瞩目，表明其新产品和服务将推动营收增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e9ce069c4d2c4291d85880b8655a3cd2\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"474\"/></p><p>泰瑞达首席执行官Greg Smith表示：“我们第四季度的业绩超出预期范围的高端，这主要得益于半导体测试业务中人工智能相关的计算、网络和内存需求。我们所有业务部门——半导体测试、产品测试和机器人——都实现了环比增长，公司层面预计到2025年将增长13%。”</p><p>Smith补充道：“我们预计到 2026 年，我们所有业务都将实现同比增长，其中人工智能驱动的计算业务将保持强劲增长势头。”这表明，推动第四季度业绩的人工智能相关需求激增可能会持续下去。</p><p>业绩公布后，截至发稿，泰瑞达股价周一盘后大涨19%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d3807b64d9bd6c9527ad9449687f8e8\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1382\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>绩后大涨！AI需求爆表，泰瑞达Q4强劲增收增利、Q1指引超预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n绩后大涨！AI需求爆表，泰瑞达Q4强劲增收增利、Q1指引超预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-03 08:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400800.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，半导体测试公司泰瑞达(TER.US)公布了2025财年第四季度业绩超出预期。Q4营收同比增长43.9%至10.8亿美元，高于分析师预期的9.756亿美元(超出预期11%)。其非GAAP每股收益为1.80美元，高于分析师的普遍预期1.38 美元。半导体测试是该公司最大的业务部门，本季度创造了 8.83 亿美元的收入，而产品测试和机器人业务分别贡献了 1.1 亿美元和 8900 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400800.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/42ecd1867e8cc01f8311ffd1f113c929","relate_stocks":{"IE00BN0W2W23.USD":"GUINNESS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","IE00BN0W2V16.EUR":"GUINNESS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL EQUITY \"C\" (EUR) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TER":"泰瑞达","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","BK4147":"半导体设备","IE00BN0W2T93.GBP":"GUINNESS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL EQUITY \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400800.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608816029","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，半导体测试公司泰瑞达(TER.US)公布了2025财年第四季度业绩超出预期。Q4营收同比增长43.9%至10.8亿美元，高于分析师预期的9.756亿美元(超出预期11%)。其非GAAP每股收益为1.80美元，高于分析师的普遍预期1.38 美元。半导体测试是该公司最大的业务部门，本季度创造了 8.83 亿美元的收入，而产品测试和机器人业务分别贡献了 1.1 亿美元和 8900 万美元的收入。调整后营业利润为3.14亿美元，高于分析师预期的2.498亿美元(调整后利润率29%)。营业利润率为27.1%，高于去年同期的20.4%。自由现金流利润率为20.2%，低于去年同期的29.9%。泰瑞达2025 年全年营收为 31.9 亿美元，比 2024 年增长 13%，调整后每股收益为 3.96 美元，而上一年为 3.22 美元。四季度，泰瑞达的库存周转天数(DIO)为74天，低于上一季度的104天，比五年平均水平低15天。目前来看，这些数据显示库存健康的迹象。DIO是芯片制造商的一项重要指标，因为它反映了企业的资本密集度以及半导体供需的周期性波动。在供应紧张的环境下，库存往往保持稳定，使芯片制造商能够行使定价权。反之，DIO 的持续上升可能预示着需求疲软，如果库存继续增加，公司可能不得不缩减产量。展望未来，泰瑞达对2026年第一季度营收的预期中值为12亿美元，高于分析师此前预测的9.54亿美元。预计2026 年第一季度调整后每股收益预期中值为 2.07 美元，高于分析师预期的 1.25 美元。泰瑞达是一家总部位于美国的半导体及其他技术和器件自动化测试设备供应商，其客户包括大多数主要芯片制造商。泰瑞达过去两年的年化营收增长率为 9.2%，高于其五年平均水平，表明其需求近期有所加速增长。分析师和市场文章强调，人工智能芯片测试需求的激增是半导体测试量和收入增长的催化剂，这增强了投资者对人工智能利好因素持续存在的信心。展望未来，卖方分析师预计未来12个月营收将增长21.8%，较过去两年有所提升。这一预测令人瞩目，表明其新产品和服务将推动营收增长。泰瑞达首席执行官Greg Smith表示：“我们第四季度的业绩超出预期范围的高端，这主要得益于半导体测试业务中人工智能相关的计算、网络和内存需求。我们所有业务部门——半导体测试、产品测试和机器人——都实现了环比增长，公司层面预计到2025年将增长13%。”Smith补充道：“我们预计到 2026 年，我们所有业务都将实现同比增长，其中人工智能驱动的计算业务将保持强劲增长势头。”这表明，推动第四季度业绩的人工智能相关需求激增可能会持续下去。业绩公布后，截至发稿，泰瑞达股价周一盘后大涨19%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TER":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528753810015640,"gmtCreate":1770121577220,"gmtModify":1770121579932,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528753810015640","repostId":"2608815433","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2608815433","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1770072223,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2608815433?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-03 06:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Palantir四季度营收同比暴增70%，全年指引远超市场预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608815433","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"政府和商业业务双双超预期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>数据分析公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>周一盘后公布了第四季度业绩显示，营收好于市场预期，同比大增70%，达到14.1亿美元。与此同时，公司给出的下一季度营收指引表现也超出预期，较分析师原本预期高出15.3%。</p><p>截至发稿，Palantir夜盘大涨超10%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a80a86e5188dab9948a9a1ddcd61856\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>以下是Palantir财报要点：</p><p><strong>主要财务数据：</strong></p><blockquote><p><strong>营收：</strong>14.1亿美元，高于分析师预期的13.4亿美元（同比增长70%，超预期4.9%）</p><p><strong>政府采购：</strong>政府采购营收同比增长66%，达到5.7亿美元，也超过分析师对该板块5.22亿美元的预期。</p><p><strong>商业采购：</strong>同比暴增137%，达到5.07亿美元，高于市场预计的4.79亿美元；尚未履行的美国商业合同总价值同比增长145%，达到43.8亿美元。</p><p><strong>调整后每股收益（EPS）：</strong>0.25美元，高于分析师预期的0.23美元（超预期8.6%）</p><p><strong>调整后营业利润：</strong>7.985亿美元，高于分析师预期的7.011亿美元（营业利润率56.8%，超预期13.9%）</p><p><strong>客户数量：</strong>客户数量同比增长34%，环比增长5%。</p></blockquote><p><strong>业绩指引：</strong></p><blockquote><p><strong>第一季度营收：</strong>营收将在15.32亿美元至15.36亿美元之间，中值高于分析师预期的13.2亿美元</p><p><strong>2026全年营收：</strong>公司预计全年营收将在71.82亿美元至71.98亿美元之间，同样高于FactSet预期的62.2亿美元。</p></blockquote><p>财报公布后，该股在盘后交易中上涨约4%，此前收盘价为147.77美元。该股自去年11月的高点以来已下跌29%。截至收盘，2026年年初至今股价已下跌17%。</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c23110ada4051cef945176eda489ad\" alt=\"\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_644578974\">政府业务需求大增，但配合ICE执法引争议</h2><p>Palantir主要向客户提供软件，用于集中、管理和分析<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>。借助整体人工智能热潮，公司盈利水平不断刷新高点。过去两年里，公司股价累计上涨近800%，市值增加了近3150亿美元。</p><p><strong>媒体称，Palantir的强劲业绩反映出美国政府和商业客户对其人工智能技术的强劲需求。与此同时，Palantir在协助特朗普政府推进驱逐移民议程中的角色，正面临越来越严格的审视。</strong></p><p>Palantir在美国的营收中，有绝大部分来自政府合同，政府用户包括美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）、美国国税局和美国国防部。<strong>Palantir表示，上个季度来自美国政府合同的营收为5.7亿美元，同比增长66%。来自美国商业客户的销售额为5.07亿美元，较一年前增长一倍以上。这两项数据均高于分析师预期。</strong></p><p>上个月，该公司与美国海军签署的一份价值4.48亿美元的合同，用于为核潜艇的维护和升级提供更优质的数据支持。</p><p>但过去一年中，现任和前员工以及民选官员对Palantir与ICE合作的批评，给公司股价的强势表现蒙上了一层阴影。ICE与Palantir签有合同，使用其技术开发应用程序，以定位和追踪被该机构列为遣返目标的移民。</p><p>自上个月明尼阿波利斯移民执法行动升级、并导致两名美国公民死亡以来，这些批评声浪达到高潮。Palantir在公开声明中一直为其与ICE的合作进行辩护。</p><p>根据媒体对政府合同公告的分析，自2025年1月以来，Palantir已从ICE获得8100万美元的合同。其中包括去年4月签署的一份3000万美元合同，用于建立一套系统，以简化“非法移民的筛选和抓捕行动”。</p><h2 id=\"id_4160938420\">遭质疑估值过高</h2><p>该公司首席执行官兼联合创始人Alexander Karp在致股东信中将公司营收加速增长形容为对公司支持者而言的“一种宇宙级的回报”。他表示，公司业绩“来自美国一批日益挑剔、真正理解人工智能价值的企业和机构的推动”。</p><p>他对媒体表示，</p><blockquote><p>“我所知道的，过去十年科技行业里无可争议的最好成绩”。</p><p>“如果你不把钱花在这上面，那你就不是在投资那些能跟上发展势头的东西。”</p></blockquote><p>虽然今年以来表现不佳，但该公司3500亿美元的市值，仍使其成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数中估值较高的股票之一。</p><p>根据媒体在去年11月基于经通胀调整后的FactSet市场数据（可追溯至1984年）所做的分析，目前标普500指数成分股中，没有任何一家公司的“估值相对于营收规模”曾达到Palantir这样的水平。</p><p>去年年底，因在2000年代末做空抵押贷款而声名大噪、因电影《大空头》而知名的对冲基金经理Michael Burry披露了对Palantir的看空押注。Burry当时还在社交平台X上发文，广泛警告人工智能存在泡沫风险。随后，随着投资者因估值担忧和对AI泡沫的担心而转向撤离AI股票，该股录得两年来表现最差的一个月。</p><p>当时，Karp在接受媒体采访时称这一操作“简直疯狂”，并指责存在“市场操纵”。</p><p>在致股东的信中，Karp表示，尽管市场对AI公司回归基本面的压力不断上升，Palantir的利润依然是“纯粹的、非刻意制造的”。</p><p>他补充说，公司商业业务板块受益于市场对软件的需求，这类软件能够为大语言模型提供结构支持。</p><p>Karp写道：</p><blockquote><p>“任何缺乏对这些技术系统所创造价值的狂热专注、缺乏真正‘抓到老鼠’能力的公司，最终都会黯然褪色，被人遗忘。”</p></blockquote><p>William Blair分析师Louis DiPalma周一将Palantir股票评级从“与大盘持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”，称此前的回调已使公司估值“变得更加合理”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir四季度营收同比暴增70%，全年指引远超市场预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir四季度营收同比暴增70%，全年指引远超市场预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-03 06:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>数据分析公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>周一盘后公布了第四季度业绩显示，营收好于市场预期，同比大增70%，达到14.1亿美元。与此同时，公司给出的下一季度营收指引表现也超出预期，较分析师原本预期高出15.3%。</p><p>截至发稿，Palantir夜盘大涨超10%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a80a86e5188dab9948a9a1ddcd61856\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>以下是Palantir财报要点：</p><p><strong>主要财务数据：</strong></p><blockquote><p><strong>营收：</strong>14.1亿美元，高于分析师预期的13.4亿美元（同比增长70%，超预期4.9%）</p><p><strong>政府采购：</strong>政府采购营收同比增长66%，达到5.7亿美元，也超过分析师对该板块5.22亿美元的预期。</p><p><strong>商业采购：</strong>同比暴增137%，达到5.07亿美元，高于市场预计的4.79亿美元；尚未履行的美国商业合同总价值同比增长145%，达到43.8亿美元。</p><p><strong>调整后每股收益（EPS）：</strong>0.25美元，高于分析师预期的0.23美元（超预期8.6%）</p><p><strong>调整后营业利润：</strong>7.985亿美元，高于分析师预期的7.011亿美元（营业利润率56.8%，超预期13.9%）</p><p><strong>客户数量：</strong>客户数量同比增长34%，环比增长5%。</p></blockquote><p><strong>业绩指引：</strong></p><blockquote><p><strong>第一季度营收：</strong>营收将在15.32亿美元至15.36亿美元之间，中值高于分析师预期的13.2亿美元</p><p><strong>2026全年营收：</strong>公司预计全年营收将在71.82亿美元至71.98亿美元之间，同样高于FactSet预期的62.2亿美元。</p></blockquote><p>财报公布后，该股在盘后交易中上涨约4%，此前收盘价为147.77美元。该股自去年11月的高点以来已下跌29%。截至收盘，2026年年初至今股价已下跌17%。</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c23110ada4051cef945176eda489ad\" alt=\"\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_644578974\">政府业务需求大增，但配合ICE执法引争议</h2><p>Palantir主要向客户提供软件，用于集中、管理和分析<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>。借助整体人工智能热潮，公司盈利水平不断刷新高点。过去两年里，公司股价累计上涨近800%，市值增加了近3150亿美元。</p><p><strong>媒体称，Palantir的强劲业绩反映出美国政府和商业客户对其人工智能技术的强劲需求。与此同时，Palantir在协助特朗普政府推进驱逐移民议程中的角色，正面临越来越严格的审视。</strong></p><p>Palantir在美国的营收中，有绝大部分来自政府合同，政府用户包括美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）、美国国税局和美国国防部。<strong>Palantir表示，上个季度来自美国政府合同的营收为5.7亿美元，同比增长66%。来自美国商业客户的销售额为5.07亿美元，较一年前增长一倍以上。这两项数据均高于分析师预期。</strong></p><p>上个月，该公司与美国海军签署的一份价值4.48亿美元的合同，用于为核潜艇的维护和升级提供更优质的数据支持。</p><p>但过去一年中，现任和前员工以及民选官员对Palantir与ICE合作的批评，给公司股价的强势表现蒙上了一层阴影。ICE与Palantir签有合同，使用其技术开发应用程序，以定位和追踪被该机构列为遣返目标的移民。</p><p>自上个月明尼阿波利斯移民执法行动升级、并导致两名美国公民死亡以来，这些批评声浪达到高潮。Palantir在公开声明中一直为其与ICE的合作进行辩护。</p><p>根据媒体对政府合同公告的分析，自2025年1月以来，Palantir已从ICE获得8100万美元的合同。其中包括去年4月签署的一份3000万美元合同，用于建立一套系统，以简化“非法移民的筛选和抓捕行动”。</p><h2 id=\"id_4160938420\">遭质疑估值过高</h2><p>该公司首席执行官兼联合创始人Alexander Karp在致股东信中将公司营收加速增长形容为对公司支持者而言的“一种宇宙级的回报”。他表示，公司业绩“来自美国一批日益挑剔、真正理解人工智能价值的企业和机构的推动”。</p><p>他对媒体表示，</p><blockquote><p>“我所知道的，过去十年科技行业里无可争议的最好成绩”。</p><p>“如果你不把钱花在这上面，那你就不是在投资那些能跟上发展势头的东西。”</p></blockquote><p>虽然今年以来表现不佳，但该公司3500亿美元的市值，仍使其成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数中估值较高的股票之一。</p><p>根据媒体在去年11月基于经通胀调整后的FactSet市场数据（可追溯至1984年）所做的分析，目前标普500指数成分股中，没有任何一家公司的“估值相对于营收规模”曾达到Palantir这样的水平。</p><p>去年年底，因在2000年代末做空抵押贷款而声名大噪、因电影《大空头》而知名的对冲基金经理Michael Burry披露了对Palantir的看空押注。Burry当时还在社交平台X上发文，广泛警告人工智能存在泡沫风险。随后，随着投资者因估值担忧和对AI泡沫的担心而转向撤离AI股票，该股录得两年来表现最差的一个月。</p><p>当时，Karp在接受媒体采访时称这一操作“简直疯狂”，并指责存在“市场操纵”。</p><p>在致股东的信中，Karp表示，尽管市场对AI公司回归基本面的压力不断上升，Palantir的利润依然是“纯粹的、非刻意制造的”。</p><p>他补充说，公司商业业务板块受益于市场对软件的需求，这类软件能够为大语言模型提供结构支持。</p><p>Karp写道：</p><blockquote><p>“任何缺乏对这些技术系统所创造价值的狂热专注、缺乏真正‘抓到老鼠’能力的公司，最终都会黯然褪色，被人遗忘。”</p></blockquote><p>William Blair分析师Louis DiPalma周一将Palantir股票评级从“与大盘持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”，称此前的回调已使公司估值“变得更加合理”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98204e955432d74f42aea41094b64024","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4023":"应用软件","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","PLOO":"2倍上限加速PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","PLYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST PLTR ETF","BK4543":"AI","PLTD":"1倍做空PLTR ETF-Direxion","PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","PLTG":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4613":"AI应用软件","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","PLTU":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Direxion","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc 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ETF-Defiance"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764783","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608815433","content_text":"数据分析公司Palantir周一盘后公布了第四季度业绩显示，营收好于市场预期，同比大增70%，达到14.1亿美元。与此同时，公司给出的下一季度营收指引表现也超出预期，较分析师原本预期高出15.3%。截至发稿，Palantir夜盘大涨超10%。以下是Palantir财报要点：主要财务数据：营收：14.1亿美元，高于分析师预期的13.4亿美元（同比增长70%，超预期4.9%）政府采购：政府采购营收同比增长66%，达到5.7亿美元，也超过分析师对该板块5.22亿美元的预期。商业采购：同比暴增137%，达到5.07亿美元，高于市场预计的4.79亿美元；尚未履行的美国商业合同总价值同比增长145%，达到43.8亿美元。调整后每股收益（EPS）：0.25美元，高于分析师预期的0.23美元（超预期8.6%）调整后营业利润：7.985亿美元，高于分析师预期的7.011亿美元（营业利润率56.8%，超预期13.9%）客户数量：客户数量同比增长34%，环比增长5%。业绩指引：第一季度营收：营收将在15.32亿美元至15.36亿美元之间，中值高于分析师预期的13.2亿美元2026全年营收：公司预计全年营收将在71.82亿美元至71.98亿美元之间，同样高于FactSet预期的62.2亿美元。财报公布后，该股在盘后交易中上涨约4%，此前收盘价为147.77美元。该股自去年11月的高点以来已下跌29%。截至收盘，2026年年初至今股价已下跌17%。政府业务需求大增，但配合ICE执法引争议Palantir主要向客户提供软件，用于集中、管理和分析海量数据。借助整体人工智能热潮，公司盈利水平不断刷新高点。过去两年里，公司股价累计上涨近800%，市值增加了近3150亿美元。媒体称，Palantir的强劲业绩反映出美国政府和商业客户对其人工智能技术的强劲需求。与此同时，Palantir在协助特朗普政府推进驱逐移民议程中的角色，正面临越来越严格的审视。Palantir在美国的营收中，有绝大部分来自政府合同，政府用户包括美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）、美国国税局和美国国防部。Palantir表示，上个季度来自美国政府合同的营收为5.7亿美元，同比增长66%。来自美国商业客户的销售额为5.07亿美元，较一年前增长一倍以上。这两项数据均高于分析师预期。上个月，该公司与美国海军签署的一份价值4.48亿美元的合同，用于为核潜艇的维护和升级提供更优质的数据支持。但过去一年中，现任和前员工以及民选官员对Palantir与ICE合作的批评，给公司股价的强势表现蒙上了一层阴影。ICE与Palantir签有合同，使用其技术开发应用程序，以定位和追踪被该机构列为遣返目标的移民。自上个月明尼阿波利斯移民执法行动升级、并导致两名美国公民死亡以来，这些批评声浪达到高潮。Palantir在公开声明中一直为其与ICE的合作进行辩护。根据媒体对政府合同公告的分析，自2025年1月以来，Palantir已从ICE获得8100万美元的合同。其中包括去年4月签署的一份3000万美元合同，用于建立一套系统，以简化“非法移民的筛选和抓捕行动”。遭质疑估值过高该公司首席执行官兼联合创始人Alexander Karp在致股东信中将公司营收加速增长形容为对公司支持者而言的“一种宇宙级的回报”。他表示，公司业绩“来自美国一批日益挑剔、真正理解人工智能价值的企业和机构的推动”。他对媒体表示，“我所知道的，过去十年科技行业里无可争议的最好成绩”。“如果你不把钱花在这上面，那你就不是在投资那些能跟上发展势头的东西。”虽然今年以来表现不佳，但该公司3500亿美元的市值，仍使其成为标普500指数中估值较高的股票之一。根据媒体在去年11月基于经通胀调整后的FactSet市场数据（可追溯至1984年）所做的分析，目前标普500指数成分股中，没有任何一家公司的“估值相对于营收规模”曾达到Palantir这样的水平。去年年底，因在2000年代末做空抵押贷款而声名大噪、因电影《大空头》而知名的对冲基金经理Michael Burry披露了对Palantir的看空押注。Burry当时还在社交平台X上发文，广泛警告人工智能存在泡沫风险。随后，随着投资者因估值担忧和对AI泡沫的担心而转向撤离AI股票，该股录得两年来表现最差的一个月。当时，Karp在接受媒体采访时称这一操作“简直疯狂”，并指责存在“市场操纵”。在致股东的信中，Karp表示，尽管市场对AI公司回归基本面的压力不断上升，Palantir的利润依然是“纯粹的、非刻意制造的”。他补充说，公司商业业务板块受益于市场对软件的需求，这类软件能够为大语言模型提供结构支持。Karp写道：“任何缺乏对这些技术系统所创造价值的狂热专注、缺乏真正‘抓到老鼠’能力的公司，最终都会黯然褪色，被人遗忘。”William Blair分析师Louis DiPalma周一将Palantir股票评级从“与大盘持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”，称此前的回调已使公司估值“变得更加合理”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTD":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"PLTR":1.98,"PLTG":0.6,"PLTY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":523767788700120,"gmtCreate":1768899705230,"gmtModify":1768899708871,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/523767788700120","repostId":"1197982585","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1197982585","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1768898377,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197982585?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-20 16:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜盘异动 | 美股AI应用概念股普跌，Rezolve AI跌超11%，AppLovin跌超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197982585","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月20日，美股夜盘时段，AI应用概念股集体下跌。$Rezolve AI$跌超11%，$AppLovin Corporation$跌超5%，$Tempus AI$、$SoundHound AI$跌超4%，$BigBear.ai Holdings$、$Unity Software$、$Figma$、$Cloudflare$、$Shopify$、$Rubrik Inc$、$Palantir$ 跌超3%，$Cerence Inc$、$C3.ai$、$Trade Desk$跌超2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月20日，美股夜盘时段，AI应用概念股集体下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RZLV\">Rezolve AI</a>跌超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APP\">AppLovin Corporation</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">Tempus AI</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOUN\">SoundHound AI</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBAI\">BigBear.ai Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">Unity Software</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIG\">Figma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NET\">Cloudflare</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBRK\">Rubrik Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> 跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRNC\">Cerence Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">C3.ai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTD\">Trade Desk</a>跌超2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005e885e6e1d2bd6d5ffef549b65d4e0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"660\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜盘异动 | 美股AI应用概念股普跌，Rezolve AI跌超11%，AppLovin跌超5%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜盘异动 | 美股AI应用概念股普跌，Rezolve AI跌超11%，AppLovin跌超5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-20 16:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月20日，美股夜盘时段，AI应用概念股集体下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RZLV\">Rezolve AI</a>跌超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APP\">AppLovin Corporation</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">Tempus AI</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOUN\">SoundHound AI</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBAI\">BigBear.ai Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">Unity Software</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIG\">Figma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NET\">Cloudflare</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBRK\">Rubrik Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> 跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRNC\">Cerence Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">C3.ai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTD\">Trade Desk</a>跌超2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005e885e6e1d2bd6d5ffef549b65d4e0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"660\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/75cf19e45ef63995f548d875c007fd05","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","RZLV":"Rezolve AI","RBRK":"Rubrik Inc.","CRNC":"Cerence Inc.","FIG":"Simplify Macro Strategy ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197982585","content_text":"1月20日，美股夜盘时段，AI应用概念股集体下跌。Rezolve AI跌超11%，AppLovin Corporation跌超5%，Tempus AI、SoundHound AI跌超4%，BigBear.ai Holdings、Unity Software、Figma、Cloudflare、Shopify、Rubrik Inc、Palantir 跌超3%，Cerence Inc、C3.ai、Trade Desk跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FIG":2,"CRNC":2,"RZLV":1.5,"RBRK":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":518475418587736,"gmtCreate":1767610118104,"gmtModify":1767610120524,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518475418587736","repostId":"1150736995","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150736995","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1767603899,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150736995?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-05 17:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动｜半导体板块普涨，美光科技、台积电涨超3%；原油板块集体走强，哈里伯顿涨超11%，雪佛龙涨超9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150736995","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月5日，美股三大股指期货齐涨，截止发稿，道指期货涨0.1%，纳指期货涨0.51%，标普500指数期货涨0.23%。半导体板块普涨，美光科技、台积电涨超3%，AMD、阿斯麦涨超2%，英特尔、迈威尔科技涨超1%；原油板块集体走强，哈里伯顿涨超11%，雪佛龙涨超9%，康菲石油涨超8%，埃克森美孚涨超3%；尽管多个成员国充满动荡，OPEC+仍决定维持原油产量稳定；贵金属板块普涨，赫克拉矿业、泛美白银涨超3%，金田、纽曼矿业涨超1%；贵金属集体大涨！","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月5日，美股三大股指期货齐涨，截止发稿，道指期货涨0.1%，纳指期货涨0.51%，标普500指数期货涨0.23%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f8631ca0607a97f7e3867436d72817b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"198\"/></p><p>明星科技股普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨近2%；</p><p>半导体板块延续强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">迈威尔科技</a>涨超1%；</p><p>原油板块集体走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲石油</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>涨超3%；尽管多个成员国充满动荡，OPEC+仍决定维持原油产量稳定；</p><p>贵金属板块普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">赫克拉矿业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAAS\">泛美白银</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">金田</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">纽曼矿业</a>涨超1%；贵金属集体大涨！现货黄金重回4400美元关口，现货白银一度涨超4%；</p><p>加密货币概念股普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">Strategy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">CleanSpark</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMNR\">BitMine</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Platforms</a>涨超2%；比特币日内一度涨超2%，升破93000美元；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨近5%，机构料内地增加房地产政策支持力度；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGC\">脑再生科技</a>飙涨逾50%，马斯克“量产预告”催化，导致脑机接口概念大爆发。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动｜半导体板块普涨，美光科技、台积电涨超3%；原油板块集体走强，哈里伯顿涨超11%，雪佛龙涨超9%</title>\n<style 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17:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月5日，美股三大股指期货齐涨，截止发稿，道指期货涨0.1%，纳指期货涨0.51%，标普500指数期货涨0.23%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f8631ca0607a97f7e3867436d72817b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"198\"/></p><p>明星科技股普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨近2%；</p><p>半导体板块延续强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">迈威尔科技</a>涨超1%；</p><p>原油板块集体走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">哈里伯顿</a>涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">斯伦贝谢</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲石油</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>涨超3%；尽管多个成员国充满动荡，OPEC+仍决定维持原油产量稳定；</p><p>贵金属板块普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">赫克拉矿业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAAS\">泛美白银</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">金田</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">纽曼矿业</a>涨超1%；贵金属集体大涨！现货黄金重回4400美元关口，现货白银一度涨超4%；</p><p>加密货币概念股普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">Strategy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">CleanSpark</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMNR\">BitMine</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Platforms</a>涨超2%；比特币日内一度涨超2%，升破93000美元；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨近5%，机构料内地增加房地产政策支持力度；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGC\">脑再生科技</a>飙涨逾50%，马斯克“量产预告”催化，导致脑机接口概念大爆发。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"HAL":"哈里伯顿","TSM":"台积电","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150736995","content_text":"1月5日，美股三大股指期货齐涨，截止发稿，道指期货涨0.1%，纳指期货涨0.51%，标普500指数期货涨0.23%。明星科技股普涨，Palantir涨超4%，特斯拉涨近2%；半导体板块延续强势，美光科技、台积电涨超3%，AMD、阿斯麦涨超2%，英特尔、迈威尔科技涨超1%；原油板块集体走强，哈里伯顿涨超11%，斯伦贝谢涨超10%，雪佛龙涨超9%，康菲石油涨超8%，埃克森美孚涨超3%；尽管多个成员国充满动荡，OPEC+仍决定维持原油产量稳定；贵金属板块普涨，赫克拉矿业、泛美白银涨超3%，金田、纽曼矿业涨超1%；贵金属集体大涨！现货黄金重回4400美元关口，现货白银一度涨超4%；加密货币概念股普涨，Coinbase、Strategy、CleanSpark涨超3%，BitMine、Riot Platforms涨超2%；比特币日内一度涨超2%，升破93000美元；贝壳涨近5%，机构料内地增加房地产政策支持力度；脑再生科技飙涨逾50%，马斯克“量产预告”催化，导致脑机接口概念大爆发。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":2,"HAL":2,"MU":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":518327197188496,"gmtCreate":1767519058459,"gmtModify":1767519060943,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518327197188496","repostId":"2600204628","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2600204628","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1767505705,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2600204628?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-04 13:48","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"CES 2026前瞻：英伟达或重塑物理AI，中美韩机器人齐“秀肌肉”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2600204628","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"CES 2026凸显芯片巨头战略分野：英伟达重心转向工业AI与机器人，而AMD与英特尔则坚守并升级传统PC市场。展会焦点已从消费电子转向人形机器人、AI定义汽车及卷轴屏等颠覆性硬件的产业化竞速，中、美、韩厂商在各赛道展开激烈角逐。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CES 2026凸显芯片巨头战略分野：英伟达重心转向工业AI与机器人，而AMD与英特尔则坚守并升级传统PC市场。展会焦点已从消费电子转向人形机器人、AI定义汽车及卷轴屏等颠覆性硬件的产业化竞速，中、美、韩厂商在各赛道展开激烈角逐。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年消费电子展（CES）将于1月4日至9日在美国拉斯维加斯举行，CES一向是科技企业发表年度新品的重要舞台，展品涵盖即将上市的产品，以及仍处于概念阶段、未必投产的装置。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芯片巨头的策略在CES 2026将出现显著分化，英伟达的重心明显不在传统的消费级显卡市场。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达（NVIDIA）：</strong> 市场预期的RTX 50 Super系列显卡（包括RTX 5080 SUPER等）或因GDDR7显存价格高企和供应短缺而<strong>推迟发布</strong>。CEO黄仁勋的演讲将聚焦“Physical AI”，<strong>推动AI算力向机器人与工业场景延伸</strong>。英伟达可能转而专注于高利润产品，如96GB显存的RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AMD： 采取稳健升级策略。</strong>桌面端预计推出Ryzen 9000系列，其中旗舰Ryzen 9 9950X3D2将搭载双芯片3D V-Cache，L3缓存达192MB，针对工作站用户。移动端将发布Ryzen AI 400系列（代号Gorgon Point）以巩固PC市场。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英特尔（Intel）： 面临关键一战。</strong>将发布Intel Core Ultra Series 3（Panther Lake），预计包含约14款SKU。旗舰型号Core Ultra X9 388H配备16核，最高频率5.1GHz。若能获得OEM广泛支持，将有助于缓解市场对其先进制程执行力的疑虑。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_425381033\" style=\"text-align: left;\">具身智能战场：从中美韩“三国杀”看执行力进阶</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年被视为人形机器人从Demo走向工位的关键年份，核心看点在于“降本增效”与“实战验证”。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国阵营（成本与量产）：</strong> 宇树和智元继续主导成本控制。宇树或展示G1量产版在工厂流水线的操作；智元将展示X2、A2等全系列产品及灵巧手等核心部件。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国阵营（技术标杆）：</strong> 波士顿动力的全电动Atlas将进行首次公开演示，直接对标特斯拉Optimus，展示商业化潜力。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>韩国阵营（产业链抱团）：</strong> 韩国将展示“K-Humanoid”联盟，由三星投资的Rainbow Robotics领衔。展品包括轮式底盘工业级人形机器人HMND 01 Alpha（身高220厘米，载荷15公斤），显示出韩国在零部件到整机全产业链的整合野心。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2228659297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">端侧 AI 与 XR：安卓阵营的反击与中国厂商的“轻量化”突围</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">XR市场正在经历Apple Vision Pro发布后的“消化期”，CES 2026将是安卓阵营反击的起点。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三星/谷歌联盟：</strong>三星将首秀获CES创新奖的Galaxy XR眼镜，搭载高通Snapdragon XR2+ Gen 3芯片，运行Android XR系统并深度集成Gemini AI，试图构建与苹果抗衡的生态。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国厂商（轻量化路径）：</strong> 阿里和Rokid引领“轻量化AI眼镜”潮流，避开重型头显的锋芒。阿里将展示夸克AI眼镜S1，搭载千问AI助手；Rokid Glasses则主打实时翻译、AR导航等实用场景。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>智能家居：</strong> 扫地机器人进入“微创新”阶段。科沃斯（X11 Omni Cyclone）和追觅不再单纯追求参数，而是通过引入旋风分离结构、GaN快充及四足越障技术，推动设备向自主服务的智能体进化。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_197719852\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车产业：从“软件定义”跃迁至“AI 定义”，芯片军备竞赛升级</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车行业正经历技术架构的深层变革，智驾芯片的竞争格局日益清晰。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>芯片军备竞赛：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达：</strong> 凭借Thor芯片（2000 TOPS算力）主导L4级高端市场，极氪等车企计划2025年量产。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高通：</strong> 虽AI算力不及英伟达，但凭借Snapdragon Ride Elite平台的“舱驾一体”架构，成功切入理想、奔驰供应链。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Mobileye：</strong> 依靠EyeQ6 Lite在L2+级市场保持性价比优势，占据量产走量车型的高地。</p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>整车技术：</strong> 吉利（银河A7搭载雷神AI电混2.0，热效率47.26%）和长城（VLA全场景大模型）展示了中国车企在架构革新上的领先优势。海外方面，宝马将展示基于Neue Klasse架构的iX3，集成Alexa+技术。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1286510983\" style=\"text-align: left;\">硬件形态突围：联想的卷轴屏与电视厂商的 AI 画质战</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对传统硬件的创新天花板，厂商开始探索激进的形态突破。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>联想：</strong> 将展示ThinkBook Plus Gen 7 Auto Twist（AI驱动自动旋转屏幕）以及ThinkPad Rollable XD（卷轴屏笔记本）的实际可操作原型机，试图解决大屏与便携的矛盾。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>显示技术：</strong> TCL和海信继续深耕Mini-LED。TCL推出SQD-MiniLED，海信展示RGB-Mini LED，双方均重点强调AI图像处理器对画质的动态优化能力，试图用AI讲述新的显示故事。</p></li></ul></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CES 2026前瞻：英伟达或重塑物理AI，中美韩机器人齐“秀肌肉”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCES 2026前瞻：英伟达或重塑物理AI，中美韩机器人齐“秀肌肉”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-04 13:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CES 2026凸显芯片巨头战略分野：英伟达重心转向工业AI与机器人，而AMD与英特尔则坚守并升级传统PC市场。展会焦点已从消费电子转向人形机器人、AI定义汽车及卷轴屏等颠覆性硬件的产业化竞速，中、美、韩厂商在各赛道展开激烈角逐。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年消费电子展（CES）将于1月4日至9日在美国拉斯维加斯举行，CES一向是科技企业发表年度新品的重要舞台，展品涵盖即将上市的产品，以及仍处于概念阶段、未必投产的装置。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芯片巨头的策略在CES 2026将出现显著分化，英伟达的重心明显不在传统的消费级显卡市场。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达（NVIDIA）：</strong> 市场预期的RTX 50 Super系列显卡（包括RTX 5080 SUPER等）或因GDDR7显存价格高企和供应短缺而<strong>推迟发布</strong>。CEO黄仁勋的演讲将聚焦“Physical AI”，<strong>推动AI算力向机器人与工业场景延伸</strong>。英伟达可能转而专注于高利润产品，如96GB显存的RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AMD： 采取稳健升级策略。</strong>桌面端预计推出Ryzen 9000系列，其中旗舰Ryzen 9 9950X3D2将搭载双芯片3D V-Cache，L3缓存达192MB，针对工作站用户。移动端将发布Ryzen AI 400系列（代号Gorgon Point）以巩固PC市场。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英特尔（Intel）： 面临关键一战。</strong>将发布Intel Core Ultra Series 3（Panther Lake），预计包含约14款SKU。旗舰型号Core Ultra X9 388H配备16核，最高频率5.1GHz。若能获得OEM广泛支持，将有助于缓解市场对其先进制程执行力的疑虑。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_425381033\" style=\"text-align: left;\">具身智能战场：从中美韩“三国杀”看执行力进阶</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年被视为人形机器人从Demo走向工位的关键年份，核心看点在于“降本增效”与“实战验证”。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国阵营（成本与量产）：</strong> 宇树和智元继续主导成本控制。宇树或展示G1量产版在工厂流水线的操作；智元将展示X2、A2等全系列产品及灵巧手等核心部件。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美国阵营（技术标杆）：</strong> 波士顿动力的全电动Atlas将进行首次公开演示，直接对标特斯拉Optimus，展示商业化潜力。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>韩国阵营（产业链抱团）：</strong> 韩国将展示“K-Humanoid”联盟，由三星投资的Rainbow Robotics领衔。展品包括轮式底盘工业级人形机器人HMND 01 Alpha（身高220厘米，载荷15公斤），显示出韩国在零部件到整机全产业链的整合野心。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2228659297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">端侧 AI 与 XR：安卓阵营的反击与中国厂商的“轻量化”突围</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">XR市场正在经历Apple Vision Pro发布后的“消化期”，CES 2026将是安卓阵营反击的起点。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>三星/谷歌联盟：</strong>三星将首秀获CES创新奖的Galaxy XR眼镜，搭载高通Snapdragon XR2+ Gen 3芯片，运行Android XR系统并深度集成Gemini AI，试图构建与苹果抗衡的生态。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>中国厂商（轻量化路径）：</strong> 阿里和Rokid引领“轻量化AI眼镜”潮流，避开重型头显的锋芒。阿里将展示夸克AI眼镜S1，搭载千问AI助手；Rokid Glasses则主打实时翻译、AR导航等实用场景。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>智能家居：</strong> 扫地机器人进入“微创新”阶段。科沃斯（X11 Omni Cyclone）和追觅不再单纯追求参数，而是通过引入旋风分离结构、GaN快充及四足越障技术，推动设备向自主服务的智能体进化。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_197719852\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车产业：从“软件定义”跃迁至“AI 定义”，芯片军备竞赛升级</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车行业正经历技术架构的深层变革，智驾芯片的竞争格局日益清晰。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>芯片军备竞赛：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达：</strong> 凭借Thor芯片（2000 TOPS算力）主导L4级高端市场，极氪等车企计划2025年量产。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高通：</strong> 虽AI算力不及英伟达，但凭借Snapdragon Ride Elite平台的“舱驾一体”架构，成功切入理想、奔驰供应链。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Mobileye：</strong> 依靠EyeQ6 Lite在L2+级市场保持性价比优势，占据量产走量车型的高地。</p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>整车技术：</strong> 吉利（银河A7搭载雷神AI电混2.0，热效率47.26%）和长城（VLA全场景大模型）展示了中国车企在架构革新上的领先优势。海外方面，宝马将展示基于Neue Klasse架构的iX3，集成Alexa+技术。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1286510983\" style=\"text-align: left;\">硬件形态突围：联想的卷轴屏与电视厂商的 AI 画质战</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对传统硬件的创新天花板，厂商开始探索激进的形态突破。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>联想：</strong> 将展示ThinkBook Plus Gen 7 Auto Twist（AI驱动自动旋转屏幕）以及ThinkPad Rollable XD（卷轴屏笔记本）的实际可操作原型机，试图解决大屏与便携的矛盾。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>显示技术：</strong> TCL和海信继续深耕Mini-LED。TCL推出SQD-MiniLED，海信展示RGB-Mini LED，双方均重点强调AI图像处理器对画质的动态优化能力，试图用AI讲述新的显示故事。</p></li></ul></blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39f5931d4cf3fccc49c0e890fceb462","relate_stocks":{"LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1992135399.USD":"Allianz Global Intelligent Cities AT Acc USD","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME 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Alpha（身高220厘米，载荷15公斤），显示出韩国在零部件到整机全产业链的整合野心。端侧 AI 与 XR：安卓阵营的反击与中国厂商的“轻量化”突围XR市场正在经历Apple Vision Pro发布后的“消化期”，CES 2026将是安卓阵营反击的起点。三星/谷歌联盟：三星将首秀获CES创新奖的Galaxy XR眼镜，搭载高通Snapdragon XR2+ Gen 3芯片，运行Android XR系统并深度集成Gemini AI，试图构建与苹果抗衡的生态。中国厂商（轻量化路径）： 阿里和Rokid引领“轻量化AI眼镜”潮流，避开重型头显的锋芒。阿里将展示夸克AI眼镜S1，搭载千问AI助手；Rokid Glasses则主打实时翻译、AR导航等实用场景。智能家居： 扫地机器人进入“微创新”阶段。科沃斯（X11 Omni Cyclone）和追觅不再单纯追求参数，而是通过引入旋风分离结构、GaN快充及四足越障技术，推动设备向自主服务的智能体进化。汽车产业：从“软件定义”跃迁至“AI 定义”，芯片军备竞赛升级汽车行业正经历技术架构的深层变革，智驾芯片的竞争格局日益清晰。芯片军备竞赛：英伟达： 凭借Thor芯片（2000 TOPS算力）主导L4级高端市场，极氪等车企计划2025年量产。高通： 虽AI算力不及英伟达，但凭借Snapdragon Ride Elite平台的“舱驾一体”架构，成功切入理想、奔驰供应链。Mobileye： 依靠EyeQ6 Lite在L2+级市场保持性价比优势，占据量产走量车型的高地。整车技术： 吉利（银河A7搭载雷神AI电混2.0，热效率47.26%）和长城（VLA全场景大模型）展示了中国车企在架构革新上的领先优势。海外方面，宝马将展示基于Neue Klasse架构的iX3，集成Alexa+技术。硬件形态突围：联想的卷轴屏与电视厂商的 AI 画质战面对传统硬件的创新天花板，厂商开始探索激进的形态突破。联想： 将展示ThinkBook Plus Gen 7 Auto Twist（AI驱动自动旋转屏幕）以及ThinkPad Rollable XD（卷轴屏笔记本）的实际可操作原型机，试图解决大屏与便携的矛盾。显示技术： TCL和海信继续深耕Mini-LED。TCL推出SQD-MiniLED，海信展示RGB-Mini 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20:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 光计算芯片突破提振半导体板块，三倍做多半导体ETF盘前大涨5.01%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116724020","media":"异动解读","summary":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily（SOXL）今日盘前大涨5.01%，成为市场焦点。消息面上，半导体板块整体走强，主要受到上海交通大学团队研发的全光计算芯片\"LightGen\"突破的提振。该芯片首次实现大规模语义生成模型的光子级运算，为AI算力瓶颈提供了全新解决方案。此外，全球AI算力需求持续高景气，存储芯片市场回暖，进一步推动半导体行业上行周期。","content":"<p>三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily（SOXL）今日盘前大涨5.01%，成为市场焦点。</p><p>消息面上，半导体板块整体走强，主要受到上海交通大学团队研发的全光计算芯片\"LightGen\"突破的提振。该芯片首次实现大规模语义生成模型的光子级运算，为AI算力瓶颈提供了全新解决方案。此外，全球AI算力需求持续高景气，存储芯片市场回暖，进一步推动半导体行业上行周期。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | 光计算芯片突破提振半导体板块，三倍做多半导体ETF盘前大涨5.01%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-22 20:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily（SOXL）今日盘前大涨5.01%，成为市场焦点。</p><p>消息面上，半导体板块整体走强，主要受到上海交通大学团队研发的全光计算芯片\"LightGen\"突破的提振。该芯片首次实现大规模语义生成模型的光子级运算，为AI算力瓶颈提供了全新解决方案。此外，全球AI算力需求持续高景气，存储芯片市场回暖，进一步推动半导体行业上行周期。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116724020","content_text":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily（SOXL）今日盘前大涨5.01%，成为市场焦点。消息面上，半导体板块整体走强，主要受到上海交通大学团队研发的全光计算芯片\"LightGen\"突破的提振。该芯片首次实现大规模语义生成模型的光子级运算，为AI算力瓶颈提供了全新解决方案。此外，全球AI算力需求持续高景气，存储芯片市场回暖，进一步推动半导体行业上行周期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOXL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":513712355561856,"gmtCreate":1766463593158,"gmtModify":1766463594949,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/513712355561856","repostId":"1130115371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130115371","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1766415140,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130115371?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-22 22:52","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | NEBIUS盘中大涨5.05%，分析师预测其2026年或被科技巨头收购","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130115371","media":"异动解读","summary":"NEBIUS今日盘中大涨5.05%，引发市场关注。消息面上，美国投行韦德布什知名科技分析师丹·艾夫斯发布了对2026年科技股的预测，其中提到NEBIUS可能成为大型科技公司的收购目标。这一预测增强了市场对NEBIUS未来发展的乐观情绪，推动了股价上涨。今年以来，NEBIUS的股价涨幅已接近200%，市场研究公司Futurum Group也将其列为下一代人工智能领域的顶级科技股之一。","content":"<p>NEBIUS（NBIS）今日盘中大涨5.05%，引发市场关注。</p><p>消息面上，美国投行韦德布什知名科技分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）发布了对2026年科技股的预测，其中提到NEBIUS可能成为大型科技公司的收购目标。艾夫斯列举了微软、谷歌和亚马逊作为潜在的“买家”，并指出NEBIUS作为人工智能基础设施提供商，在人工智能军备竞赛中具有显著优势。这一预测增强了市场对NEBIUS未来发展的乐观情绪，推动了股价上涨。</p><p>今年以来，NEBIUS的股价涨幅已接近200%，市场研究公司Futurum Group也将其列为下一代人工智能领域的顶级科技股之一。此次分析师的最新预测进一步巩固了投资者对该公司前景的信心。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | NEBIUS盘中大涨5.05%，分析师预测其2026年或被科技巨头收购\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-22 22:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEBIUS（NBIS）今日盘中大涨5.05%，引发市场关注。</p><p>消息面上，美国投行韦德布什知名科技分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）发布了对2026年科技股的预测，其中提到NEBIUS可能成为大型科技公司的收购目标。艾夫斯列举了微软、谷歌和亚马逊作为潜在的“买家”，并指出NEBIUS作为人工智能基础设施提供商，在人工智能军备竞赛中具有显著优势。这一预测增强了市场对NEBIUS未来发展的乐观情绪，推动了股价上涨。</p><p>今年以来，NEBIUS的股价涨幅已接近200%，市场研究公司Futurum Group也将其列为下一代人工智能领域的顶级科技股之一。此次分析师的最新预测进一步巩固了投资者对该公司前景的信心。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NBIS":"NEBIUS"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130115371","content_text":"NEBIUS（NBIS）今日盘中大涨5.05%，引发市场关注。消息面上，美国投行韦德布什知名科技分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）发布了对2026年科技股的预测，其中提到NEBIUS可能成为大型科技公司的收购目标。艾夫斯列举了微软、谷歌和亚马逊作为潜在的“买家”，并指出NEBIUS作为人工智能基础设施提供商，在人工智能军备竞赛中具有显著优势。这一预测增强了市场对NEBIUS未来发展的乐观情绪，推动了股价上涨。今年以来，NEBIUS的股价涨幅已接近200%，市场研究公司Futurum Group也将其列为下一代人工智能领域的顶级科技股之一。此次分析师的最新预测进一步巩固了投资者对该公司前景的信心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NBIS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":513711713239256,"gmtCreate":1766463516629,"gmtModify":1766463518772,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/513711713239256","repostId":"2592130284","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":593920369894248,"gmtCreate":1786016775641,"gmtModify":1786016777774,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APP\">$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ </a> 观察再抄底","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APP\">$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ </a> 观察再抄底","text":"$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ 观察再抄底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593920369894248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4199537022909542","authorId":"4199537022909542","name":"股市獵手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd9af5917d64bde733927002a3f8faf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4199537022909542","authorIdStr":"4199537022909542"},"content":"可以买了吗？这是干嘛的公司","text":"可以买了吗？这是干嘛的公司","html":"可以买了吗？这是干嘛的公司"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":596731028448704,"gmtCreate":1786704515011,"gmtModify":1786704516966,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"捡钱机会！","listText":"捡钱机会！","text":"捡钱机会！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/596731028448704","repostId":"1153895257","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153895257","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"行情直击","id":"1059448697","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a"},"pubTimestamp":1786694437,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153895257?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-14 16:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动解读｜应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，Q3业绩与指引全面超预期但遭利好兑现抛压","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153895257","media":"行情直击","summary":"8月14日，应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，报507.44美元/股，成交额118.76万美元。消息面上，应用材料盘后公布第三财季业绩，调整后每股收益3.50美元，超出市场预期的3.40美元，同比增长41.13%；营收91.15亿美元，超出预期的89.91亿美元。尽管业绩与展望全面超预期，但公司股价年内已累计翻倍，市场呈现典型\"利好兑现\"走势，获利盘集中了结导致盘前承压。","content":"<p><p>8月14日，应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，报507.44美元/股，成交额118.76万美元。</p><p>消息面上，应用材料盘后公布第三财季业绩，调整后每股收益3.50美元，超出市场预期的3.40美元，同比增长41.13%；营收91.15亿美元，超出预期的89.91亿美元。公司第四财季营收指引中值约102.5亿美元，远高于市场预期的95.5亿美元；调整后每股收益指引4.02美元，亦大幅超出预期的3.72美元。CEO表示预计全年营收增长超20%，封装业务营收增幅将超70%。尽管业绩与展望全面超预期，但公司股价年内已累计翻倍，市场呈现典型\"利好兑现\"走势，获利盘集中了结导致盘前承压。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读｜应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，Q3业绩与指引全面超预期但遭利好兑现抛压</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读｜应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，Q3业绩与指引全面超预期但遭利好兑现抛压\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059448697\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">行情直击 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-14 16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p>8月14日，应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，报507.44美元/股，成交额118.76万美元。</p><p>消息面上，应用材料盘后公布第三财季业绩，调整后每股收益3.50美元，超出市场预期的3.40美元，同比增长41.13%；营收91.15亿美元，超出预期的89.91亿美元。公司第四财季营收指引中值约102.5亿美元，远高于市场预期的95.5亿美元；调整后每股收益指引4.02美元，亦大幅超出预期的3.72美元。CEO表示预计全年营收增长超20%，封装业务营收增幅将超70%。尽管业绩与展望全面超预期，但公司股价年内已累计翻倍，市场呈现典型\"利好兑现\"走势，获利盘集中了结导致盘前承压。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153895257","content_text":"8月14日，应用材料盘前下跌5.3%，报507.44美元/股，成交额118.76万美元。消息面上，应用材料盘后公布第三财季业绩，调整后每股收益3.50美元，超出市场预期的3.40美元，同比增长41.13%；营收91.15亿美元，超出预期的89.91亿美元。公司第四财季营收指引中值约102.5亿美元，远高于市场预期的95.5亿美元；调整后每股收益指引4.02美元，亦大幅超出预期的3.72美元。CEO表示预计全年营收增长超20%，封装业务营收增幅将超70%。尽管业绩与展望全面超预期，但公司股价年内已累计翻倍，市场呈现典型\"利好兑现\"走势，获利盘集中了结导致盘前承压。（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMAT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593920669181024,"gmtCreate":1786016852803,"gmtModify":1786016854805,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$闪迪(SNDK)$ </a> 抄底。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$闪迪(SNDK)$ </a> 抄底。","text":"$闪迪(SNDK)$ 抄底。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593920669181024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":570626590532680,"gmtCreate":1780317414539,"gmtModify":1780319147204,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570626590532680","repostId":"570272813728272","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":570272813728272,"gmtCreate":1780230967721,"gmtModify":1780235986577,"author":{"id":"4087422624240810","authorId":"4087422624240810","name":"AliceSam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff717dd7a06de56315c65060829a03","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087422624240810","authorIdStr":"4087422624240810"},"themes":[],"title":"2026学习笔记之96 - IBM是AI时代的隐形王者？","htmlText":"2026年的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">$IBM(IBM)$</a> 处在一个极其微妙的位置，一方面，它依然是许多投资者眼中有点过气的科技巨头，一个依赖大型机、咨询外包和遗留系统的“旧世界产物”。另一方面，资本市场却又在突然间给它贴上AI，量子的热门标签。有很多朋友已经意识到，正式这种撕裂，在悄悄地创造出新的投资机会。 要看一家公司，不知道从何下手，就先去看一下财报，这是我的习惯。International Business Machines Corporation （IBM）最新财报显示2026Q1的营收为159亿美元，同比增长9%，高于分析师平均预期的156亿美元。这其中的软件业务营收达70.5亿美元，同比增长11%，与分析师预期基本持平。数据业务同比增长19%，混合云含Red Hat增长13%，自动化业务增长10%。基础设施业务表现尤为突出，营收达33.2亿美元，同比增长15%。IBM Z大型机业务同比增长51%，混合基础设施业务增长28%。 调整后EPS1.91美元，也超出了华尔街预期的1.81美元，Non-GAAP毛利率达57.7%，GAAP毛利率升至56.2%，Non-GAAP税前利润率达13.4%，同比大幅提升140个基点。这几个关键数据一出来，我们就知道，IBM这个季度的财务健康状况整体处于非常优秀的水平。 在现金流方面，IBM表现也非常不俗，一季度的自由现金流达22亿美元，高于分析师预期的20.4亿美元。充裕的现金流使IBM在向股东返还16亿美元股息的同时，先后完成对Red Hat、HashiCorp和Confluent的重大收购，进一步完善了自家的AI生态布局。这战绩，已经清清楚楚的展示出来，IBM本质上已经不是成长股，而是带增长选项的高质量现金流资产。 但神奇的是这份财报发布后，IBM的股价却大跌约8%，并持","listText":"2026年的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">$IBM(IBM)$</a> 处在一个极其微妙的位置，一方面，它依然是许多投资者眼中有点过气的科技巨头，一个依赖大型机、咨询外包和遗留系统的“旧世界产物”。另一方面，资本市场却又在突然间给它贴上AI，量子的热门标签。有很多朋友已经意识到，正式这种撕裂，在悄悄地创造出新的投资机会。 要看一家公司，不知道从何下手，就先去看一下财报，这是我的习惯。International Business Machines Corporation （IBM）最新财报显示2026Q1的营收为159亿美元，同比增长9%，高于分析师平均预期的156亿美元。这其中的软件业务营收达70.5亿美元，同比增长11%，与分析师预期基本持平。数据业务同比增长19%，混合云含Red Hat增长13%，自动化业务增长10%。基础设施业务表现尤为突出，营收达33.2亿美元，同比增长15%。IBM Z大型机业务同比增长51%，混合基础设施业务增长28%。 调整后EPS1.91美元，也超出了华尔街预期的1.81美元，Non-GAAP毛利率达57.7%，GAAP毛利率升至56.2%，Non-GAAP税前利润率达13.4%，同比大幅提升140个基点。这几个关键数据一出来，我们就知道，IBM这个季度的财务健康状况整体处于非常优秀的水平。 在现金流方面，IBM表现也非常不俗，一季度的自由现金流达22亿美元，高于分析师预期的20.4亿美元。充裕的现金流使IBM在向股东返还16亿美元股息的同时，先后完成对Red Hat、HashiCorp和Confluent的重大收购，进一步完善了自家的AI生态布局。这战绩，已经清清楚楚的展示出来，IBM本质上已经不是成长股，而是带增长选项的高质量现金流资产。 但神奇的是这份财报发布后，IBM的股价却大跌约8%，并持","text":"2026年的 $IBM(IBM)$ 处在一个极其微妙的位置，一方面，它依然是许多投资者眼中有点过气的科技巨头，一个依赖大型机、咨询外包和遗留系统的“旧世界产物”。另一方面，资本市场却又在突然间给它贴上AI，量子的热门标签。有很多朋友已经意识到，正式这种撕裂，在悄悄地创造出新的投资机会。 要看一家公司，不知道从何下手，就先去看一下财报，这是我的习惯。International Business Machines Corporation （IBM）最新财报显示2026Q1的营收为159亿美元，同比增长9%，高于分析师平均预期的156亿美元。这其中的软件业务营收达70.5亿美元，同比增长11%，与分析师预期基本持平。数据业务同比增长19%，混合云含Red Hat增长13%，自动化业务增长10%。基础设施业务表现尤为突出，营收达33.2亿美元，同比增长15%。IBM Z大型机业务同比增长51%，混合基础设施业务增长28%。 调整后EPS1.91美元，也超出了华尔街预期的1.81美元，Non-GAAP毛利率达57.7%，GAAP毛利率升至56.2%，Non-GAAP税前利润率达13.4%，同比大幅提升140个基点。这几个关键数据一出来，我们就知道，IBM这个季度的财务健康状况整体处于非常优秀的水平。 在现金流方面，IBM表现也非常不俗，一季度的自由现金流达22亿美元，高于分析师预期的20.4亿美元。充裕的现金流使IBM在向股东返还16亿美元股息的同时，先后完成对Red Hat、HashiCorp和Confluent的重大收购，进一步完善了自家的AI生态布局。这战绩，已经清清楚楚的展示出来，IBM本质上已经不是成长股，而是带增长选项的高质量现金流资产。 但神奇的是这份财报发布后，IBM的股价却大跌约8%，并持","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981425ad957e2af892ddfcc74e4954ca","width":"370","height":"586"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f28c0ff4be41c7e9ea85048037a4b5b8","width":"367","height":"586"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/620868e6e66ee817c8127a7214ead4cc","width":"376","height":"730"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570272813728272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566642289596072,"gmtCreate":1779374786365,"gmtModify":1779374788515,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;be plug vrt","listText":"&nbsp;be plug vrt","text":"be plug vrt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566642289596072","repostId":"1166473136","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166473136","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1779374479,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166473136?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 22:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股电气设备股盘中走强！Bloom Energy涨超12%、普拉格能源涨11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166473136","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月21日，美股电气设备股盘中走强，Bloom Energy涨超12%，此前与$NEBIUS(NBIS)$达成供电协议；$普拉格能源(PLUG)$涨11%，Eos Energy涨9%，Vertiv Holdings涨超4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月21日，美股电气设备股盘中走强，Bloom Energy涨超12%，此前与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>达成供电协议；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">普拉格能源</a>涨11%，Eos Energy涨9%，Vertiv Holdings涨超4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00c8cb59c7dd370964cab154754cbaa\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股电气设备股盘中走强！Bloom Energy涨超12%、普拉格能源涨11%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股电气设备股盘中走强！Bloom Energy涨超12%、普拉格能源涨11%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 22:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月21日，美股电气设备股盘中走强，Bloom Energy涨超12%，此前与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>达成供电协议；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">普拉格能源</a>涨11%，Eos Energy涨9%，Vertiv Holdings涨超4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00c8cb59c7dd370964cab154754cbaa\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"BEX":"2倍做多BE ETF-Tradr","BE":"Bloom Energy Corp","HYDR":"Global X Hydrogen ETF","PLUL":"Leverage Shares 2X Long PLUG Daily ETF","BEZ":"Tradr 2X Short BE Daily ETF","CTEX":"ProShares S&P Kensho Cleantech ETF","PLUG":"普拉格能源","BEG":"2倍做多BE ETF-Leverage Shares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166473136","content_text":"5月21日，美股电气设备股盘中走强，Bloom Energy涨超12%，此前与NEBIUS达成供电协议；普拉格能源涨11%，Eos Energy涨9%，Vertiv Holdings涨超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEX":0.6,"PLUL":0.6,"BEZ":0.6,"CTEX":1.5,"HYDR":1.5,"PLUG":2,"BE":2,"BEG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":564107954152624,"gmtCreate":1778755995320,"gmtModify":1778755997782,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564107954152624","repostId":"2633362180","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633362180","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778067323,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2633362180?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-06 19:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"人类最伟大的投资方向","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633362180","media":"格隆汇","summary":"新的时代在定价","content":"<html><body><p>这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。</p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>自</span></span><span><span>2022</span></span><span><span>年到</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年底，股价增长超</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>倍，市值一度超</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>2023</span></span><span><span>年至今股价增长</span></span><span><span>3.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值</span></span><span><span>4.7</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>自</span></span><span><span>2022</span></span><span><span>年低点上涨近</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>同期上涨超</span></span><span><span>9</span></span><span><span>倍，市值同样超</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>最近一年飙涨</span></span><span><span>7.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>7200</span></span><span><span>亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>一年内飙涨</span></span><span><span>4.5</span></span><span><span>倍，当前市值超</span></span><span><span>5400</span></span><span><span>亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>月上市来，仅</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>年多飙升超</span></span><span><span>40</span></span><span><span>倍；</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/276cc-5a25fe3e-e018-4acf-b1d7-05f8826dc0f4.jpg?guru_height=956&amp;guru_width=683&amp;guru_size=133133\"/></p><p><span><span><span>还有很多热门</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业链公司，短短一年股价涨幅数倍、十几倍的比比皆是。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>很多人还没意识到这些数字到底有多么夸张。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这么说吧，截至</span></span><span><span>5</span></span><span><span>月</span></span><span><span>6</span></span><span><span>日，单是美股</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业链相关的头部巨头（英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、台积电、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>、</span></span><span><span>meta</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、美光科技、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a></span></span><span><span>、英特尔、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a></span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、</span></span><span><span>Palantir)</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><b><span><span>它们的总市值加起来，超过了</span></span><span><span>30</span></span><span><span>万亿美元。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>当前美股最新总市值大约</span></span><span><span>92.5</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家就占了</span></span><b><span><span>三分之一</span></span></b><span><span>；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>当前</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股总市值</span></span><span><span>118.27</span></span><span><span>万亿元，折合</span></span><span><span>17.25</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家的总市值是其</span></span><b><span><span>1.75</span></span><span><span>倍</span></span></b><span><span>！</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年</span></span></b><b><span><span>，</span></span></b><b><span><span>美国名义</span></span><span><span>GDP30.8</span></span><span><span>万亿美元，差不多刚好</span></span></b><b><span><span>是</span></span></b><b><span><span>这</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>家的总市值！</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个风暴还不止发生在美股，</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>韩国</span></span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>年初至今股价涨幅超</span></span><span><span>3.7</span></span><span><span>倍，市值突破</span></span><span><span>1.04</span></span><span><span>万亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>韩国</span></span><b><span><span>SK</span></span><span><span>海力士</span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>同期涨幅超</span></span><span><span>3.6</span></span><span><span>倍，市值涨至</span></span><span><span>7</span></span><span><span>千亿美元；</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/d1a62-e9d18f98-96eb-468d-821e-4df100551200.jpg?guru_height=1502&amp;guru_width=1072&amp;guru_size=218743\"/></p><p><span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股这边，</span></span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601138\">工业富联</a></span></span></b><span><span>股价</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>3</span></span><span><span>倍，市值一度超过</span></span><span><span>1.6</span></span><span><span>万亿元，成为首个受益于</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业的万亿市值巨头；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300308\">中际旭创</a></span></span></b><span><span>，</span><span>一年涨超</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>倍，市值最高时同样突破万亿</span></span><span><span>元</span></span><span><span>；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有大量的芯片、光通信、</span></span><span><span>PCB</span></span><span><span>龙头，市值</span></span><span><span>同样短时间内</span></span><span><span>飙升几倍，跻身</span></span><span><span>为</span></span><span><span>千亿市值</span></span><span><span>巨头</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>可以说，这绝对是人类</span></span></b><b><span><span>有史以来</span></span></b><b><span><span>最</span></span></b><b><span><span>极致</span></span></b><b><span><span>的一次全球性资产暴涨潮。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>面对如此史诗级的资产狂潮</span></span><span><span>，有人翻出</span></span><span><span>2000</span></span><span><span>年互联网泡沫的旧报纸，试图证明这一切终将灰飞烟灭。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但他们忘了一件事。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>人类历史上，没有一次真正的文明级变革，会因为</span></span><span><span>“看起来太贵”而停下脚步。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这一次同样如此</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>纵观人类文明史，本质上就是科技不断突破生理、环境、认知局限的进化史。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>其中有一个规律从未被打破：</span></span><b><span><span>谁抓住了时代的核心科技，谁就抓住了财富的密码。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>农耕时代，铁器、水利是核心科技，掌握先进农耕技术的人，成为当时时代的最大受益者；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>工业时代，蒸汽机、电力是核心科技，催生了钢铁、能源、制造业巨头，成就了一批跨越百年的企业；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>信息时代，互联网是核心科技，苹果、谷歌、微软、</span></span><span><span>meta</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>等科技巨头，创造了前所未有的市值神话；</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>而</span></span></b><b><span><span>今天，智能时代的核心科技，就是算力。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>这一次，算力的载体是超大规模</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>几万张、几十万张</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>连在一起，像一座数字时代的巨型电站。单是训练一个前沿大模型消耗的电力，就够一个普通家庭用上几百年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而这样的集群，全世界正在以每周数个的速度拔地而起。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>谁控制了最大的算力集群，谁就定义了智能的上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>OpenAI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>Google</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a></span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>xAI</span></span><span><span>……它们之间的竞争，表面上是模型参数的竞赛，实质上是算力储备的军备竞赛。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>马斯克说要建</span></span><span><span>10</span></span><span><span>万张</span></span><span><span>H100</span></span><span><span>的集群，黄仁勋说未来的数据中心会是“</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>工厂”——</span></span><b><span><span>这些巨头们，丝毫不掩饰对算力的极致渴望。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>他们在疯买算力，不是因为疯狂，而是因为足够清醒。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>算力的最大价值，就在于它的需求是</span></span><span><span>“永续性、无上限”的</span></span></b><b><span><span>。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>未来人类社会</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>必</span></span><span><span>将全面迈向智能化，算力的渗透将无孔不入，如同水和空气一样，成为人类生存、发展的必需品，</span></span><span><span>且</span></span><span><span>需求永不枯竭、持续扩容。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>比如在</span></span><span><span>产业层面，工业无人化、智能制造、数字孪生、工业仿真</span></span><span><span>……这些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上的词背后，全都需要海量算力支撑，才能实现决策智能化、生产自动化、降低成本、提升效率；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>生活层面，自动驾驶、人形机器人、智能家居、</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>助手、元宇宙等场景的普及，更需要实时算力保障体验，让科技真正融入日常生活，改变人类的生活方式；</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>尤其是</span></span><span><span>前沿探索层面，生命科学（药物研发、基因测序、抗衰老研究）、空间探索（星际模拟、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>计算、太空移民）、量子科技、可控核聚变等领域的突破，更需要顶级算力作为支撑，去帮助人类突破认知边界。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>更重要的是，算力的需求不会因经济周期、政策调整而减少，反而会随着智能化时代的推进持续不断提升需求总量</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种</span></span><span><span>“无上限、不可逆”的刚需，</span></span><b><span><span>是任何传统行业都无法比拟的优势。</span></span></b></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>智能时代有三大</span></span><span><span>最基础的</span></span><span><span>要素</span></span><span><span>——</span></span><span><span>算力、电力、数据。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但</span></span><span><span>凭什么算力最核心？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>打个比方。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>数据，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>的</span></span><span><span>“原油”。</span></span></b><span><span>它埋藏在每个点击、每段对话、每张图片里。</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，全球每年产生的数据量已经超过</span></span><span><span>175ZB</span></span><span><span>——堆在一起，需要几十亿块</span></span><span><span>12TB</span></span><span><span>的硬盘才能装下。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但没有算力炼化，这些原油不过是地底下没人开采的淤泥。</span></span></span></p><p><span><b><span><span>电力，是新时代的</span></span><span><span>“血液”。</span></span></b><span><span>它驱动一切运转，但血液本身不会思考，不会决策。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群的耗电量确实在以惊人的速度膨胀，以至于有些数据中心不得不建在核电站旁边。电网公司</span></span><span><span>甚至</span></span><span><span>开始要求算力客户提前三年下用电申请</span></span><span><span>——这在历史上从未发生过。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但如果没有算力，一切归零。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>没有算力，数据只是一堆沉默的比特，电力也只能点亮灯泡，点不亮智能。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这才是</span></span><span><span>“基石”的真正含义——它是地基之下那块<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688169\">石头</a>，抽掉它，整座大厦瞬间崩塌。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>想象一下电力的历史。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一旦人类用上了电，就再也回不去没有电的夜晚。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>电灯、电话、电视、电脑</span></span><span><span>……每一项发明都在加深人类对电的依赖，直到它成为像空气一样的存在。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力正在经历同样的过程。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>今天，你已经完全离不开手机、电脑电子设备，你打开的每一个应用、敲下的每一个字背后，都要消耗大量的算力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你甚至不知道，当你用手机拍照的一瞬间，背后有十几个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型同时运行——人脸检测、场景识别、</span></span><span><span>HDR</span></span><span><span>融合、降噪……每一个都需要算力。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，你会觉得“没有算力的一天”，就像今天觉得“没有电的一天”一样荒谬。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一旦算力侵入一个领域，它就永不退潮。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>这还不是全部。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力最迷人的地方在于</span></span><span><span>——人类对算力的贪婪，没有上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你可以少买一辆车、少买一部手机、少喝一杯咖啡。经济学家管这叫</span></span><span><span>“需求弹性”——价格高了，人们自然买得少。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但你不会让</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>“少思考一点”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而如果</span></span><span><span>你想让</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>变聪明一点点，需要的算力要翻很多倍。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>德勤的报告预测，到</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年，推理将占据三分之二的</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>计算量；到</span></span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，这个比例可能达到</span></span><span><span>75%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这意味着，</span></span><b><span><span>算力需求不是一条向上的斜线，而是一条加速陡峭的曲线。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为全球如果有一亿人每天问</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>十个问题，那一天的推理算力消耗，就相当于重新训练一遍</span></span><span><span>GPT-4</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>另一边，算力的供给端却像跑在泥沼里。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>现在，芯片制程已经逼近物理极限。</span></span><span><span>3</span></span><span><span>纳米、</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>纳米、</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>纳米……每一步难如登天。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>台积电的</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>纳米工厂投资超过</span></span><span><span>300</span></span><span><span>亿美元，从动工到量产需要四五年。就算技术突破，产能爬坡也不是一朝一夕。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>全球只有一家公司能生产最顶尖的极紫外光刻机</span></span><span><span>——荷兰的</span></span><span><span>ASML</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一台机器</span></span><span><span>3.5</span></span><span><span>亿美元，年产只有几十台。每台机器重达</span></span><span><span>180</span></span><span><span>吨，需要三架<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a></span></span><span><span>747</span></span><span><span>才能运完。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你想增加产能？对不起，蔡司的光学镜片磨不出来，通快的激光器造不出来。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有能源。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>一个大型</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>集群的耗电量，堪比一座中型城市。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>美国，很多新建</span></span><span><span>的</span></span><span><span>“数据中心巷”</span></span><span><span>因为</span></span><span><span>当地电网不堪重负</span></span><span><span>而被迫暂停，</span></span><span><span>新项目并网等待时间长达数年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力公司开始自己建电站、买核反应堆，这在一年前还是笑话</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>如今却是普遍都在做的事。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>也就是说，算力需求以指数级狂奔，但供给却被缚住手脚。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个</span></span><span><span>“超级缺口”，将是未来十年的结构性主题。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">04</font></span></strong></h3><p><span><span><span>站在今天，看向未来十年，算力产业链的路径极其清晰：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>英伟达、博通、</span></span><span><span>AMD</span></span><span><span>，还有那些躲在幕后但不可或缺的</span></span><span><span>HBM</span></span><span><span>厂商（</span></span><span><span>SK</span></span><span><span>海力士、美光）、先进封装厂（台积电的</span></span><span><span>CoWoS</span></span><span><span>、日月光）、半导体设备商（</span></span><span><span>ASML</span></span><span><span>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>、</span></span><span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KLAC\">KLA</a></span></span><span><span>）。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>无论</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型未来谁赢、谁输，这些“卖铲人”都会赢。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>掘金热里，最稳赚不赔的是卖铲子的人。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个道理，几百年来从未失效。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>1849</span></span><span><span>年加州淘金热，真正发财的不是大多数淘金客，而是卖铲子、卖牛仔裤的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEVI\">李维斯</a>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>今天，这些</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>“卖铲人”卖出的是人类历史上最贵、最稀缺、也最不可或缺的“铲子”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有光模块、高速互联、交换机</span></span><span><span>……算力集群每扩大一倍，互联带宽的需求就翻几倍。从</span></span><span><span>800G</span></span><span><span>到</span></span><span><span>1.6T</span></span><span><span>到</span></span><span><span>3.2T</span></span><span><span>，光模块的升级速度远远超过了传统的“四年一代”。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/cb2e6-ffb44163-f2cc-4e01-a2b6-6cbcaa7f9135.jpg?guru_height=748&amp;guru_width=1080&amp;guru_size=125142\"/></p><p><span><span><span>美股、</span></span><span><span>A</span></span><span><span>股里的光通信标的为什么能一年涨几倍、十几倍？因为它们是算力时代的“神经网络”。没有它们，再强的算力芯片也只能单打独斗，组不成军团。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>甚至还有量子计算、光子计算、存内计算、边缘</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>算力……这些听起来还很遥远的技术，都有可能在未来十年诞生出新的算力王者。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">05</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">写在最后</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>投资的本质，是认知的变现；而认知的高度，决定了收益的上限。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>我们要跳出股市的短期博弈，多从人类文明进化、国家科技发展、行业技术迭代的角度，思考算力的价值，提升自身的格局视野。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力作为智能时代核心基石的本质，</span></span><span><span>有着</span></span><span><span>“刚需不可逆、地位不可替、壁垒不可破、增长无上限”的底层逻辑，</span></span><span><span>无疑让它能成为当下最伟大的投资方向之一</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>投资算力，甚至不需要你相信任何一家公司、任何一个</span></span><span><span>CEO</span></span><span><span>、任何一条技术路线。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>你只需要相信一件事：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>人类对智能的渴望，是刻在基因里的本能。而算力，是一切智能的物理化身。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>或许</span></span><span><span>二十年后，人们回望</span></span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>—</span></span><span><span>2030</span></span><span><span>年，会说：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>那是铁路时代的</span></span><span><span>1860</span></span><span><span>年代，那是电力时代的</span></span><span><span>1900</span></span><span><span>年代，那是互联网时代的</span></span><span><span>1995</span></span><span><span>年。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>只是这一次，浪潮比任何一次都更确定、更汹涌、更不可阻挡。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>面对如此令人激动的新时代和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">新世界</a>，</span></span></span></p><p><span><span>你是拥抱？还是漠视？</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>人类最伟大的投资方向</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n人类最伟大的投资方向\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-06 19:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。英伟达，自2022年到2025年底，股价增长超15倍，市值一度超5万亿美元；谷歌，2023年至今股价增长3.5倍，当前市值4.7万亿美元；台积电，自2022年低点上涨近6倍，当前市值超2万亿美元；博通，同期上涨超9倍，市值同样超2万亿美元；美光科技，最近一年飙涨7.5倍，当前市值超7200亿美元；英特尔，一年内飙涨4.5倍，当前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/168f5-51c69691-7244-4853-b93a-b23b9aba6d11.jpg?guru_height=643&guru_width=1146&guru_size=156394","relate_stocks":{"LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  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ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4641590","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2633362180","content_text":"这两年，由AI大模型引爆的资本狂潮，正以人类从未见过的烈度，席卷全球。英伟达，自2022年到2025年底，股价增长超15倍，市值一度超5万亿美元；谷歌，2023年至今股价增长3.5倍，当前市值4.7万亿美元；台积电，自2022年低点上涨近6倍，当前市值超2万亿美元；博通，同期上涨超9倍，市值同样超2万亿美元；美光科技，最近一年飙涨7.5倍，当前市值超7200亿美元；英特尔，一年内飙涨4.5倍，当前市值超5400亿美元；闪迪，2025年2月上市来，仅1年多飙升超40倍；还有很多热门AI产业链公司，短短一年股价涨幅数倍、十几倍的比比皆是。很多人还没意识到这些数字到底有多么夸张。这么说吧，截至5月6日，单是美股15家AI产业链相关的头部巨头（英伟达、苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊、台积电、博通、meta、特斯拉、美光科技、AMD、英特尔、ASML、甲骨文、Palantir)，它们的总市值加起来，超过了30万亿美元。当前美股最新总市值大约92.5万亿美元，这15家就占了三分之一；当前A股总市值118.27万亿元，折合17.25万亿美元，这15家的总市值是其1.75倍！2025年，美国名义GDP30.8万亿美元，差不多刚好是这15家的总市值！这个风暴还不止发生在美股，韩国三星电子，年初至今股价涨幅超3.7倍，市值突破1.04万亿美元；韩国SK海力士，同期涨幅超3.6倍，市值涨至7千亿美元；A股这边，工业富联股价1年3倍，市值一度超过1.6万亿元，成为首个受益于AI产业的万亿市值巨头；中际旭创，一年涨超10倍，市值最高时同样突破万亿元；还有大量的芯片、光通信、PCB龙头，市值同样短时间内飙升几倍，跻身为千亿市值巨头。可以说，这绝对是人类有史以来最极致的一次全球性资产暴涨潮。面对如此史诗级的资产狂潮，有人翻出2000年互联网泡沫的旧报纸，试图证明这一切终将灰飞烟灭。但他们忘了一件事。人类历史上，没有一次真正的文明级变革，会因为“看起来太贵”而停下脚步。这一次同样如此。01纵观人类文明史，本质上就是科技不断突破生理、环境、认知局限的进化史。其中有一个规律从未被打破：谁抓住了时代的核心科技，谁就抓住了财富的密码。农耕时代，铁器、水利是核心科技，掌握先进农耕技术的人，成为当时时代的最大受益者；工业时代，蒸汽机、电力是核心科技，催生了钢铁、能源、制造业巨头，成就了一批跨越百年的企业；信息时代，互联网是核心科技，苹果、谷歌、微软、meta、腾讯，阿里等科技巨头，创造了前所未有的市值神话；而今天，智能时代的核心科技，就是算力。这一次，算力的载体是超大规模AI集群。几万张、几十万张GPU连在一起，像一座数字时代的巨型电站。单是训练一个前沿大模型消耗的电力，就够一个普通家庭用上几百年。而这样的集群，全世界正在以每周数个的速度拔地而起。谁控制了最大的算力集群，谁就定义了智能的上限。OpenAI、Google、Meta、xAI……它们之间的竞争，表面上是模型参数的竞赛，实质上是算力储备的军备竞赛。马斯克说要建10万张H100的集群，黄仁勋说未来的数据中心会是“AI工厂”——这些巨头们，丝毫不掩饰对算力的极致渴望。他们在疯买算力，不是因为疯狂，而是因为足够清醒。算力的最大价值，就在于它的需求是“永续性、无上限”的。未来人类社会，必将全面迈向智能化，算力的渗透将无孔不入，如同水和空气一样，成为人类生存、发展的必需品，且需求永不枯竭、持续扩容。比如在产业层面，工业无人化、智能制造、数字孪生、工业仿真……这些高大上的词背后，全都需要海量算力支撑，才能实现决策智能化、生产自动化、降低成本、提升效率；生活层面，自动驾驶、人形机器人、智能家居、AI助手、元宇宙等场景的普及，更需要实时算力保障体验，让科技真正融入日常生活，改变人类的生活方式；尤其是前沿探索层面，生命科学（药物研发、基因测序、抗衰老研究）、空间探索（星际模拟、航天计算、太空移民）、量子科技、可控核聚变等领域的突破，更需要顶级算力作为支撑，去帮助人类突破认知边界。更重要的是，算力的需求不会因经济周期、政策调整而减少，反而会随着智能化时代的推进持续不断提升需求总量。这种“无上限、不可逆”的刚需，是任何传统行业都无法比拟的优势。02智能时代有三大最基础的要素——算力、电力、数据。但凭什么算力最核心？打个比方。数据，是新时代的“原油”。它埋藏在每个点击、每段对话、每张图片里。2025年，全球每年产生的数据量已经超过175ZB——堆在一起，需要几十亿块12TB的硬盘才能装下。但没有算力炼化，这些原油不过是地底下没人开采的淤泥。电力，是新时代的“血液”。它驱动一切运转，但血液本身不会思考，不会决策。AI集群的耗电量确实在以惊人的速度膨胀，以至于有些数据中心不得不建在核电站旁边。电网公司甚至开始要求算力客户提前三年下用电申请——这在历史上从未发生过。但如果没有算力，一切归零。没有算力，数据只是一堆沉默的比特，电力也只能点亮灯泡，点不亮智能。这才是“基石”的真正含义——它是地基之下那块石头，抽掉它，整座大厦瞬间崩塌。想象一下电力的历史。一旦人类用上了电，就再也回不去没有电的夜晚。电灯、电话、电视、电脑……每一项发明都在加深人类对电的依赖，直到它成为像空气一样的存在。算力正在经历同样的过程。今天，你已经完全离不开手机、电脑电子设备，你打开的每一个应用、敲下的每一个字背后，都要消耗大量的算力。你甚至不知道，当你用手机拍照的一瞬间，背后有十几个AI模型同时运行——人脸检测、场景识别、HDR融合、降噪……每一个都需要算力。2030年，你会觉得“没有算力的一天”，就像今天觉得“没有电的一天”一样荒谬。一旦算力侵入一个领域，它就永不退潮。03这还不是全部。算力最迷人的地方在于——人类对算力的贪婪，没有上限。你可以少买一辆车、少买一部手机、少喝一杯咖啡。经济学家管这叫“需求弹性”——价格高了，人们自然买得少。但你不会让AI“少思考一点”。而如果你想让AI变聪明一点点，需要的算力要翻很多倍。德勤的报告预测，到2026年，推理将占据三分之二的AI计算量；到2030年，这个比例可能达到75%。这意味着，算力需求不是一条向上的斜线，而是一条加速陡峭的曲线。因为全球如果有一亿人每天问AI十个问题，那一天的推理算力消耗，就相当于重新训练一遍GPT-4。另一边，算力的供给端却像跑在泥沼里。现在，芯片制程已经逼近物理极限。3纳米、2纳米、1纳米……每一步难如登天。台积电的2纳米工厂投资超过300亿美元，从动工到量产需要四五年。就算技术突破，产能爬坡也不是一朝一夕。全球只有一家公司能生产最顶尖的极紫外光刻机——荷兰的ASML。一台机器3.5亿美元，年产只有几十台。每台机器重达180吨，需要三架波音747才能运完。你想增加产能？对不起，蔡司的光学镜片磨不出来，通快的激光器造不出来。还有能源。一个大型AI集群的耗电量，堪比一座中型城市。在美国，很多新建的“数据中心巷”因为当地电网不堪重负而被迫暂停，新项目并网等待时间长达数年。算力公司开始自己建电站、买核反应堆，这在一年前还是笑话，如今却是普遍都在做的事。也就是说，算力需求以指数级狂奔，但供给却被缚住手脚。这个“超级缺口”，将是未来十年的结构性主题。04站在今天，看向未来十年，算力产业链的路径极其清晰：英伟达、博通、AMD，还有那些躲在幕后但不可或缺的HBM厂商（SK海力士、美光）、先进封装厂（台积电的CoWoS、日月光）、半导体设备商（ASML、应用材料、KLA）。无论AI模型未来谁赢、谁输，这些“卖铲人”都会赢。掘金热里，最稳赚不赔的是卖铲子的人。这个道理，几百年来从未失效。1849年加州淘金热，真正发财的不是大多数淘金客，而是卖铲子、卖牛仔裤的李维斯。今天，这些AI“卖铲人”卖出的是人类历史上最贵、最稀缺、也最不可或缺的“铲子”。还有光模块、高速互联、交换机……算力集群每扩大一倍，互联带宽的需求就翻几倍。从800G到1.6T到3.2T，光模块的升级速度远远超过了传统的“四年一代”。美股、A股里的光通信标的为什么能一年涨几倍、十几倍？因为它们是算力时代的“神经网络”。没有它们，再强的算力芯片也只能单打独斗，组不成军团。甚至还有量子计算、光子计算、存内计算、边缘AI算力……这些听起来还很遥远的技术，都有可能在未来十年诞生出新的算力王者。05写在最后投资的本质，是认知的变现；而认知的高度，决定了收益的上限。我们要跳出股市的短期博弈，多从人类文明进化、国家科技发展、行业技术迭代的角度，思考算力的价值，提升自身的格局视野。算力作为智能时代核心基石的本质，有着“刚需不可逆、地位不可替、壁垒不可破、增长无上限”的底层逻辑，无疑让它能成为当下最伟大的投资方向之一。投资算力，甚至不需要你相信任何一家公司、任何一个CEO、任何一条技术路线。你只需要相信一件事：人类对智能的渴望，是刻在基因里的本能。而算力，是一切智能的物理化身。或许二十年后，人们回望2025—2030年，会说：那是铁路时代的1860年代，那是电力时代的1900年代，那是互联网时代的1995年。只是这一次，浪潮比任何一次都更确定、更汹涌、更不可阻挡。面对如此令人激动的新时代和新世界，你是拥抱？还是漠视？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"5RE.SI":0.67,"AVGX":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"MSFT":1.85,"AIYY":0.6,"LINT":0.6,"TSLA":1.84,"STSM":0.6,"GOOGL":1.91,"ASMU":0.6,"ORCL":1.83,"AMUU":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"META":1.85,"AMDY":0.6,"INTW":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"AAPL":1.85,"WTAI":0.76,"DAMD":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"ASML":1.87,"MU":1.87,"MULL":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"INTC":1.86,"AVGW":0.6,"ORCS":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"TSM":1.89,"AMDL":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"04335":1.86,"AMZN":1.84,"AVGO":1.87,"TSMG":0.6,"AMDS":0.6,"03145":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"03165":0.6,"ASMH":0.6,"AMD":1.85,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCU":0.6,"NVDA":1.97,"AVGU":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"AVL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563755128854024,"gmtCreate":1778669918830,"gmtModify":1778669921034,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263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17:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴 ：2026财年Q4营收2433.8亿元同比增长3%，利润端承压","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171260025","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Q4净利润254.76亿元，去年同期123.82亿元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 周三公布2026财年第四财季财报：截至2026年3月31日止季度，公司收入2433.80亿元，同比增长3%，市场预估2,465.1亿元；若剔除高鑫零售和银泰等已处置业务影响，同口径收入同比增长11%。全年收入首次站上万亿元，为1.0237万亿元，同比增长3%，同口径同样增长11%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利润端承压。一季度，阿里由去年同期经营利润284.65亿元转为经营亏损8.48亿元；经调整EBITA同比下降84%至51.02亿元。季度净利润同比增长96%至235.02亿元，主要受股权投资按市值计价收益增加、去年同期处置高鑫零售和银泰亏损形成低基数影响；剔除投资收益、股权激励、减值等项目后，非公认会计准则净利润仅8600万元，同比下降几乎100%。</p><p>阿里巴巴盘前股价大幅震荡，一度涨超2%，截至发稿跌幅超1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/163d23f9bdb95d7cfc24d06f9864f3f2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1257\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CEO吴泳铭在财报中表示，阿里全栈AI技术投入&#34;已正式跨越初期培育阶段，进入正向的规模商业化回报周期&#34;，这一表态为理解公司当前主动压缩利润的战略逻辑提供了注脚。与此同时，董事会宣布派发年度现金股息，每股ADS为1.05美元，股息总额约25亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"6341aef9\">收入：表观低增，同口径仍保持双位数增长</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从集团整体看，阿里本季度收入增长3%，全年收入增长3%，表面增速并不高。但财报特别强调，若不考虑高鑫零售和银泰的已处置业务收入，季度和全年同口径收入均同比增长11%。这意味着，处置线下零售资产对报表收入形成了明显拖累，而核心业务收入韧性更强。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分业务看，一季度阿里巴巴淘天集团收入1222.20亿元，同比增长6%；阿里国际数字商业集团收入354.29亿元，同比增长6%；云智能集团收入416.26亿元，同比增长38%；“所有其他”收入654.59亿元，同比下降21%，主要受高鑫零售、银泰处置以及菜鸟收入下降影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全年维度，淘天集团收入5542.17亿元，同比增长9%；国际数字商业收入1441.70亿元，同比增长9%；云智能收入1581.32亿元，同比增长34%；“所有其他”收入2543.67亿元，同比下降25%。</p><h2 id=\"b47d3d11\">利润：经营亏损与净利润高增并存，核心盈利被投入稀释</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本季度阿里出现经营亏损8.48亿元，而去年同期为经营利润284.65亿元；经营利润率从12%降至接近0。核心原因是战略投入集中释放：科技业务、即时零售、用户体验投入加大，抵消了客户管理服务、云业务增长和多项业务效率提升带来的正向贡献。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经调整EBITA更能反映主业经营压力。本季度经调整EBITA为51.02亿元，同比下降84%，经调整EBITA利润率仅2%；全年经调整EBITA为764.16亿元，同比下降56%，利润率从上一财年的17%降至7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，季度净利润同比增长96%至235.02亿元，归属于普通股股东净利润254.76亿元，同比增长106%。这主要不是经营利润改善，而是投资收益变化驱动：本季度利息收入和投资净收益达338.23亿元，去年同期为净亏损75.16亿元。换言之，净利润高增更多来自投资按市值计价收益及处置事项的同比变化，非公认会计准则净利润降至8600万元，更能体现当期经营投入对利润的挤压。</p><h2 id=\"8\">淘天集团：客户管理收入同口径增长8%，即时零售高增但拖累利润</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电商仍是阿里最核心的利润来源，但也是本轮投入最密集的板块之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度，淘天集团收入1222.20亿元，同比增长6%。其中，电商业务收入962.92亿元，同比下降1%；客户管理收入730.24亿元，同比增长1%。不过，阿里说明，本季度起更新了部分商家的营销发展计划，部分补贴在会计处理上从销售和市场费用改为客户管理收入冲减项。若剔除这一影响，客户管理收入同口径同比增长8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着淘宝天猫的广告、佣金等商业化能力仍在改善。全年客户管理收入3438.67亿元，同比增长5%；若剔除新营销发展计划影响，同口径增长7%，主要由Take rate提升带动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即时零售是增长最快的业务之一。一季度，即时零售收入199.88亿元，同比增长57%，主要得益于2025年4月底推出的“淘宝闪购”带动订单量增长；全年即时零售收入785.20亿元，同比增长47%。公司称即时零售单位经济效益继续改善，笔单价环比提升，主要来自订单结构优化，并进一步拓展高笔单价餐饮和非餐品类。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但高增长背后是利润承压。一季度，淘天集团经调整EBITA为240.10亿元，同比下降40%；全年经调整EBITA为1075.09亿元，同比下降44%。财报解释，主要由于即时零售、用户体验和科技投入增加，部分被客户管理服务正向贡献抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，88VIP会员数继续同比双位数增长，超过6200万。对阿里而言，这仍是提升消费频次、交叉销售和会员留存的核心资产。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">云智能：AI驱动收入加速，盈利同步改善</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">云智能是本季财报最清晰的增长引擎。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度，云智能集团收入416.26亿元，同比增长38%；外部客户收入同比增长40%，主要由公共云业务增长带动，其中包括AI相关产品采用量提升。AI相关产品收入达89.71亿元，连续第十一个季度实现三位数同比增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全年云智能收入1581.32亿元，同比增长34%；外部客户收入同比增长33%。在高投入背景下，云业务利润仍保持增长：本季度云智能经调整EBITA为37.96亿元，同比增长57%；全年经调整EBITA为142.65亿元，同比增长35%。这说明云业务在收入扩张和运营效率提升中，仍能消化部分客户增长与技术创新投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里云的战略重点已经从传统云资源销售，转向“AI+云”全栈能力：包括高性能网络、分布式存储、云操作系统、模型训练与推理服务，以及异构芯片集群编排软件。管理层称，要凭借模型、云基础设施和自研专用推理芯片等能力，争夺中国AI云市场主导权。</p><h2 id=\"ai-maa-s\">AI：从模型、MaaS到应用，阿里试图打通商业闭环</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本季度阿里AI叙事进一步从“投入”转向“商业化”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">模型层面，公司3月发布Qwen3.6-Plus，强调其在编程、智能体编程、前端网页开发和复杂仓库级任务方面表现突出，原生上下文窗口最高支持100万tokens，并增强多模态感知与推理能力。此外，阿里还在灰度测试世界模型HappyOyster和视频生成模型HappyHorse，扩展多模态模型矩阵。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">平台层面，阿里推进MaaS战略。百炼平台推出包括Qwen3.6-Plus在内的模型矩阵、企业Token方案以及智能体产品组合。2026年3月，百炼平台客户数量同比增长八倍，反映企业客户对模型服务的需求快速增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">应用层面，阿里将淘宝天猫与千问App打通，并在淘宝App推出千问AI购物助手，覆盖种草、商品发现、售中支持、订单管理和售后服务等链路。商家端则推出企业级AI原生智能体“悟空”，将智能能力嵌入运营流程。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">芯片层面，平头哥自研AI芯片已实现产业应用，超过10万卡真武PPU部署于阿里云公共云平台，超过30家车企及自动驾驶公司基于该芯片开展智能驾驶研发。阿里试图通过“芯片—云—模型—应用”形成一体化技术栈，提高训练和推理效率。</p><h2 id=\"397a6506\">国际业务：亏损大幅收窄，接近盈亏平衡</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里国际数字商业集团本季度收入354.29亿元，同比增长6%；全年收入1441.70亿元，同比增长9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，一季度国际零售商业收入289.17亿元，同比增长5%，主要受速卖通及其他国际业务增长带动，部分被Lazada收入下降抵消；国际批发商业收入65.12亿元，同比增长9%，主要来自跨境业务相关增值服务增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更值得关注的是亏损显著收窄。本季度国际数字商业集团经调整EBITA亏损1.38亿元，去年同期亏损35.74亿元，同比大幅改善，已接近盈亏平衡；全年亏损20.51亿元，上一财年亏损151.37亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">改善主要来自速卖通运营效率提升、物流优化和多项业务效率提升。速卖通Choice业务单位经济效益环比继续改善，“Brand+”计划加速品牌接入，本季度“Brand+”季度活跃买家渗透率已超过30%。Alibaba.com则继续推广AI采购助手Accio，并推出面向全球中小企业的智能业务平台Accio Work，试图将AI工具嵌入跨境贸易全流程。</p><h2 id=\"7e18afd0\">费用与现金流：销售投放和云资本开支是主要压力源</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">费用端最显著变化在销售和市场费用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度，阿里销售和市场费用534.15亿元，占收入比例21.9%，去年同期为15.3%；全年销售和市场费用2450.23亿元，占收入比例23.9%，去年为14.5%。财报称，主要由于即时零售业务、用户体验以及千问App用户获取投入增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">产品开发费用也在上升。一季度产品开发费用189.57亿元，占收入比例7.8%，去年同期为6.3%；全年产品开发费用665.33亿元，占收入比例6.5%，去年为5.7%，主要与研发人员和技术基础设施投入有关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现金流方面，全年经营活动现金流净额762.13亿元，同比下降53%；自由现金流净流出466.09亿元，去年为净流入738.70亿元。全年资本性支出1260.63亿元，显著高于上一财年的859.72亿元，主要与云业务、电商业务相关设备购置、数据中心建设、物流和直营业态设施有关。截至3月底，已签约但尚未计提的资本性支出承诺为541.36亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着，AI和云基础设施建设已经成为阿里现金流的核心变量。短期看，它压低自由现金流和利润率；中长期看，则决定阿里能否在AI云市场形成规模优势。</p><h2 id=\"9224991\">千问等科技投入拉大亏损</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“所有其他”分部包括盒马、菜鸟、阿里健康、虎鲸文娱、高德、千问C端事业群、灵犀互娱、钉钉等业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度，该分部收入654.59亿元，同比下降21%，主要由于高鑫零售和银泰处置、菜鸟收入下降，部分被盒马和高德增长抵消。全年收入2543.67亿元，同比下降25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利润端压力更大。本季度该分部经调整EBITA亏损211.60亿元，去年同期亏损34.13亿元；全年亏损357.37亿元，去年亏损94.99亿元。财报明确指出，主要由于科技业务投入增加，包括千问App用户获取投入，部分被其他业务经营改善抵消。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也解释了阿里本季度集团利润的急剧下滑：传统电商仍在贡献利润，云业务盈利改善，国际业务亏损收窄，但千问、即时零售和AI基础设施等新投入正在集中消耗利润与现金流。</p><h2 id=\"9935a584\">股东回报：维持年度股息，回购规模相对克制</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里董事会批准派发2026财年年度定期现金股息，每股普通股0.13125美元，或每股美国存托股1.05美元，股息总额约25亿美元，普通股预计于2026年7月6日前后支付，美国存托股预计于7月13日前后支付。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回购方面，截至2026年3月31日止年度，公司在纽交所回购约7273万股普通股，总对价约10.46亿美元，相关股份均已注销。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从资金安排看，阿里在大规模投入AI、即时零售和云基础设施的同时，仍维持股息和回购，但力度明显需要与自由现金流转负相匹配。截至3月底，公司现金及其他流动投资仍达5208.24亿元，同时债务总额/经调整EBITDA比率由上一财年末的1.14升至2.29，债务总额/资本总额比率为18.86%。这为后续投入提供了空间，也意味着市场将继续关注AI商业化能否尽快覆盖资本开支和获客投入。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴 ：2026财年Q4营收2433.8亿元同比增长3%，利润端承压</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴 ：2026财年Q4营收2433.8亿元同比增长3%，利润端承压\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-13 17:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772187><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>阿里巴巴 周三公布2026财年第四财季财报：截至2026年3月31日止季度，公司收入2433.80亿元，同比增长3%，市场预估2,465.1亿元；若剔除高鑫零售和银泰等已处置业务影响，同口径收入同比增长11%。全年收入首次站上万亿元，为1.0237万亿元，同比增长3%，同口径同样增长11%。利润端承压。一季度，阿里由去年同期经营利润284.65亿元转为经营亏损8.48亿元；经调整EBITA同比下降...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772187\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABO":"BABA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BABX":"2倍做多BABA ETF-GraniteShares","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABU":"Direxion Daily BABA Bull 2X ETF","BABW":"Roundhill BABA WeeklyPay ETF","BABA":"阿里巴巴","KBAB":"2倍做多BABA ETF-KraneShares","BBYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST BABA ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3772187","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171260025","content_text":"阿里巴巴 周三公布2026财年第四财季财报：截至2026年3月31日止季度，公司收入2433.80亿元，同比增长3%，市场预估2,465.1亿元；若剔除高鑫零售和银泰等已处置业务影响，同口径收入同比增长11%。全年收入首次站上万亿元，为1.0237万亿元，同比增长3%，同口径同样增长11%。利润端承压。一季度，阿里由去年同期经营利润284.65亿元转为经营亏损8.48亿元；经调整EBITA同比下降84%至51.02亿元。季度净利润同比增长96%至235.02亿元，主要受股权投资按市值计价收益增加、去年同期处置高鑫零售和银泰亏损形成低基数影响；剔除投资收益、股权激励、减值等项目后，非公认会计准则净利润仅8600万元，同比下降几乎100%。阿里巴巴盘前股价大幅震荡，一度涨超2%，截至发稿跌幅超1%。CEO吴泳铭在财报中表示，阿里全栈AI技术投入\"已正式跨越初期培育阶段，进入正向的规模商业化回报周期\"，这一表态为理解公司当前主动压缩利润的战略逻辑提供了注脚。与此同时，董事会宣布派发年度现金股息，每股ADS为1.05美元，股息总额约25亿美元。收入：表观低增，同口径仍保持双位数增长从集团整体看，阿里本季度收入增长3%，全年收入增长3%，表面增速并不高。但财报特别强调，若不考虑高鑫零售和银泰的已处置业务收入，季度和全年同口径收入均同比增长11%。这意味着，处置线下零售资产对报表收入形成了明显拖累，而核心业务收入韧性更强。分业务看，一季度阿里巴巴淘天集团收入1222.20亿元，同比增长6%；阿里国际数字商业集团收入354.29亿元，同比增长6%；云智能集团收入416.26亿元，同比增长38%；“所有其他”收入654.59亿元，同比下降21%，主要受高鑫零售、银泰处置以及菜鸟收入下降影响。全年维度，淘天集团收入5542.17亿元，同比增长9%；国际数字商业收入1441.70亿元，同比增长9%；云智能收入1581.32亿元，同比增长34%；“所有其他”收入2543.67亿元，同比下降25%。利润：经营亏损与净利润高增并存，核心盈利被投入稀释本季度阿里出现经营亏损8.48亿元，而去年同期为经营利润284.65亿元；经营利润率从12%降至接近0。核心原因是战略投入集中释放：科技业务、即时零售、用户体验投入加大，抵消了客户管理服务、云业务增长和多项业务效率提升带来的正向贡献。经调整EBITA更能反映主业经营压力。本季度经调整EBITA为51.02亿元，同比下降84%，经调整EBITA利润率仅2%；全年经调整EBITA为764.16亿元，同比下降56%，利润率从上一财年的17%降至7%。与此同时，季度净利润同比增长96%至235.02亿元，归属于普通股股东净利润254.76亿元，同比增长106%。这主要不是经营利润改善，而是投资收益变化驱动：本季度利息收入和投资净收益达338.23亿元，去年同期为净亏损75.16亿元。换言之，净利润高增更多来自投资按市值计价收益及处置事项的同比变化，非公认会计准则净利润降至8600万元，更能体现当期经营投入对利润的挤压。淘天集团：客户管理收入同口径增长8%，即时零售高增但拖累利润电商仍是阿里最核心的利润来源，但也是本轮投入最密集的板块之一。一季度，淘天集团收入1222.20亿元，同比增长6%。其中，电商业务收入962.92亿元，同比下降1%；客户管理收入730.24亿元，同比增长1%。不过，阿里说明，本季度起更新了部分商家的营销发展计划，部分补贴在会计处理上从销售和市场费用改为客户管理收入冲减项。若剔除这一影响，客户管理收入同口径同比增长8%。这意味着淘宝天猫的广告、佣金等商业化能力仍在改善。全年客户管理收入3438.67亿元，同比增长5%；若剔除新营销发展计划影响，同口径增长7%，主要由Take rate提升带动。即时零售是增长最快的业务之一。一季度，即时零售收入199.88亿元，同比增长57%，主要得益于2025年4月底推出的“淘宝闪购”带动订单量增长；全年即时零售收入785.20亿元，同比增长47%。公司称即时零售单位经济效益继续改善，笔单价环比提升，主要来自订单结构优化，并进一步拓展高笔单价餐饮和非餐品类。但高增长背后是利润承压。一季度，淘天集团经调整EBITA为240.10亿元，同比下降40%；全年经调整EBITA为1075.09亿元，同比下降44%。财报解释，主要由于即时零售、用户体验和科技投入增加，部分被客户管理服务正向贡献抵消。此外，88VIP会员数继续同比双位数增长，超过6200万。对阿里而言，这仍是提升消费频次、交叉销售和会员留存的核心资产。云智能：AI驱动收入加速，盈利同步改善云智能是本季财报最清晰的增长引擎。一季度，云智能集团收入416.26亿元，同比增长38%；外部客户收入同比增长40%，主要由公共云业务增长带动，其中包括AI相关产品采用量提升。AI相关产品收入达89.71亿元，连续第十一个季度实现三位数同比增长。全年云智能收入1581.32亿元，同比增长34%；外部客户收入同比增长33%。在高投入背景下，云业务利润仍保持增长：本季度云智能经调整EBITA为37.96亿元，同比增长57%；全年经调整EBITA为142.65亿元，同比增长35%。这说明云业务在收入扩张和运营效率提升中，仍能消化部分客户增长与技术创新投入。阿里云的战略重点已经从传统云资源销售，转向“AI+云”全栈能力：包括高性能网络、分布式存储、云操作系统、模型训练与推理服务，以及异构芯片集群编排软件。管理层称，要凭借模型、云基础设施和自研专用推理芯片等能力，争夺中国AI云市场主导权。AI：从模型、MaaS到应用，阿里试图打通商业闭环本季度阿里AI叙事进一步从“投入”转向“商业化”。模型层面，公司3月发布Qwen3.6-Plus，强调其在编程、智能体编程、前端网页开发和复杂仓库级任务方面表现突出，原生上下文窗口最高支持100万tokens，并增强多模态感知与推理能力。此外，阿里还在灰度测试世界模型HappyOyster和视频生成模型HappyHorse，扩展多模态模型矩阵。平台层面，阿里推进MaaS战略。百炼平台推出包括Qwen3.6-Plus在内的模型矩阵、企业Token方案以及智能体产品组合。2026年3月，百炼平台客户数量同比增长八倍，反映企业客户对模型服务的需求快速增长。应用层面，阿里将淘宝天猫与千问App打通，并在淘宝App推出千问AI购物助手，覆盖种草、商品发现、售中支持、订单管理和售后服务等链路。商家端则推出企业级AI原生智能体“悟空”，将智能能力嵌入运营流程。芯片层面，平头哥自研AI芯片已实现产业应用，超过10万卡真武PPU部署于阿里云公共云平台，超过30家车企及自动驾驶公司基于该芯片开展智能驾驶研发。阿里试图通过“芯片—云—模型—应用”形成一体化技术栈，提高训练和推理效率。国际业务：亏损大幅收窄，接近盈亏平衡阿里国际数字商业集团本季度收入354.29亿元，同比增长6%；全年收入1441.70亿元，同比增长9%。其中，一季度国际零售商业收入289.17亿元，同比增长5%，主要受速卖通及其他国际业务增长带动，部分被Lazada收入下降抵消；国际批发商业收入65.12亿元，同比增长9%，主要来自跨境业务相关增值服务增长。更值得关注的是亏损显著收窄。本季度国际数字商业集团经调整EBITA亏损1.38亿元，去年同期亏损35.74亿元，同比大幅改善，已接近盈亏平衡；全年亏损20.51亿元，上一财年亏损151.37亿元。改善主要来自速卖通运营效率提升、物流优化和多项业务效率提升。速卖通Choice业务单位经济效益环比继续改善，“Brand+”计划加速品牌接入，本季度“Brand+”季度活跃买家渗透率已超过30%。Alibaba.com则继续推广AI采购助手Accio，并推出面向全球中小企业的智能业务平台Accio Work，试图将AI工具嵌入跨境贸易全流程。费用与现金流：销售投放和云资本开支是主要压力源费用端最显著变化在销售和市场费用。一季度，阿里销售和市场费用534.15亿元，占收入比例21.9%，去年同期为15.3%；全年销售和市场费用2450.23亿元，占收入比例23.9%，去年为14.5%。财报称，主要由于即时零售业务、用户体验以及千问App用户获取投入增加。产品开发费用也在上升。一季度产品开发费用189.57亿元，占收入比例7.8%，去年同期为6.3%；全年产品开发费用665.33亿元，占收入比例6.5%，去年为5.7%，主要与研发人员和技术基础设施投入有关。现金流方面，全年经营活动现金流净额762.13亿元，同比下降53%；自由现金流净流出466.09亿元，去年为净流入738.70亿元。全年资本性支出1260.63亿元，显著高于上一财年的859.72亿元，主要与云业务、电商业务相关设备购置、数据中心建设、物流和直营业态设施有关。截至3月底，已签约但尚未计提的资本性支出承诺为541.36亿元。这意味着，AI和云基础设施建设已经成为阿里现金流的核心变量。短期看，它压低自由现金流和利润率；中长期看，则决定阿里能否在AI云市场形成规模优势。千问等科技投入拉大亏损“所有其他”分部包括盒马、菜鸟、阿里健康、虎鲸文娱、高德、千问C端事业群、灵犀互娱、钉钉等业务。一季度，该分部收入654.59亿元，同比下降21%，主要由于高鑫零售和银泰处置、菜鸟收入下降，部分被盒马和高德增长抵消。全年收入2543.67亿元，同比下降25%。利润端压力更大。本季度该分部经调整EBITA亏损211.60亿元，去年同期亏损34.13亿元；全年亏损357.37亿元，去年亏损94.99亿元。财报明确指出，主要由于科技业务投入增加，包括千问App用户获取投入，部分被其他业务经营改善抵消。这也解释了阿里本季度集团利润的急剧下滑：传统电商仍在贡献利润，云业务盈利改善，国际业务亏损收窄，但千问、即时零售和AI基础设施等新投入正在集中消耗利润与现金流。股东回报：维持年度股息，回购规模相对克制阿里董事会批准派发2026财年年度定期现金股息，每股普通股0.13125美元，或每股美国存托股1.05美元，股息总额约25亿美元，普通股预计于2026年7月6日前后支付，美国存托股预计于7月13日前后支付。回购方面，截至2026年3月31日止年度，公司在纽交所回购约7273万股普通股，总对价约10.46亿美元，相关股份均已注销。从资金安排看，阿里在大规模投入AI、即时零售和云基础设施的同时，仍维持股息和回购，但力度明显需要与自由现金流转负相匹配。截至3月底，公司现金及其他流动投资仍达5208.24亿元，同时债务总额/经调整EBITDA比率由上一财年末的1.14升至2.29，债务总额/资本总额比率为18.86%。这为后续投入提供了空间，也意味着市场将继续关注AI商业化能否尽快覆盖资本开支和获客投入。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KBAB":0.6,"BABA":2,"BABW":0.6,"09988":2,"BBYY":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"BABX":0.6,"BABO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552452539289952,"gmtCreate":1775910674323,"gmtModify":1775910676572,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552452539289952","repostId":"1159268557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159268557","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775833383,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159268557?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-10 23:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"光通信概念股大涨，Astera Labs涨超13%，AAOI、POET涨12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159268557","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"至少还能维持5年左右的景气持续性。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五，光通信概念股集体拉升。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALAB\">Astera Labs, Inc.</a> 涨超13%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAOI\">Applied Optoelectronics Inc.</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POET\">POET Technologies Inc</a> 涨12%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRDO\">Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd</a> 涨超11%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">COHERENT</a> 涨超6%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIEN\">Ciena科技</a> 涨超4%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a> 涨超3%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4ed0b54a621f6d6553be018b79ea0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a34a17df24d130eec0fbb5dc315fb8f\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>光通信龙头Lumentum首席执行官迈克尔·赫尔斯顿周五称，科技巨头对该公司光学组件的需求正在加速，用不了多久连2028年的产能都要卖完了。</p><p>赫尔斯顿表示：“美国几家超大规模云厂商的资本开支规模极其庞大，而且看起来完全没有放缓的迹象。我们的产能正越来越跟不上需求。如果按目前趋势发展，再过两个季度，我们到2028年全年的产能就会彻底售罄。”</p><p>赫尔斯顿表示，目前来看，这一轮行业周期至少还能维持5年左右的景气持续性。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>光通信概念股大涨，Astera Labs涨超13%，AAOI、POET涨12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n光通信概念股大涨，Astera Labs涨超13%，AAOI、POET涨12%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-10 23:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五，光通信概念股集体拉升。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALAB\">Astera Labs, Inc.</a> 涨超13%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAOI\">Applied Optoelectronics Inc.</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POET\">POET Technologies Inc</a> 涨12%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRDO\">Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd</a> 涨超11%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">COHERENT</a> 涨超6%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIEN\">Ciena科技</a> 涨超4%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a> 涨超3%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4ed0b54a621f6d6553be018b79ea0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a34a17df24d130eec0fbb5dc315fb8f\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>光通信龙头Lumentum首席执行官迈克尔·赫尔斯顿周五称，科技巨头对该公司光学组件的需求正在加速，用不了多久连2028年的产能都要卖完了。</p><p>赫尔斯顿表示：“美国几家超大规模云厂商的资本开支规模极其庞大，而且看起来完全没有放缓的迹象。我们的产能正越来越跟不上需求。如果按目前趋势发展，再过两个季度，我们到2028年全年的产能就会彻底售罄。”</p><p>赫尔斯顿表示，目前来看，这一轮行业周期至少还能维持5年左右的景气持续性。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36213e3b23e406b7712fe3c9b6e2762c","relate_stocks":{"AAOI":"Applied Optoelectronics Inc.","LITE":"Lumentum Holdings Inc.","CIEN":"Ciena科技","COHR":"Coherent","POET":"POET Technologies Inc","ALAB":"Astera Labs, Inc.","CRDO":"Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159268557","content_text":"周五，光通信概念股集体拉升。 Astera Labs, Inc. 涨超13%， Applied Optoelectronics Inc. 、 POET Technologies Inc 涨12%， Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd 涨超11%， COHERENT 涨超6%， Ciena科技 涨超4%， Lumentum Holdings Inc. 涨超3%。光通信龙头Lumentum首席执行官迈克尔·赫尔斯顿周五称，科技巨头对该公司光学组件的需求正在加速，用不了多久连2028年的产能都要卖完了。赫尔斯顿表示：“美国几家超大规模云厂商的资本开支规模极其庞大，而且看起来完全没有放缓的迹象。我们的产能正越来越跟不上需求。如果按目前趋势发展，再过两个季度，我们到2028年全年的产能就会彻底售罄。”赫尔斯顿表示，目前来看，这一轮行业周期至少还能维持5年左右的景气持续性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAOI":2,"CIEN":2,"POET":2,"CRDO":2,"LITE":2,"COHR":2,"ALAB":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551321877062984,"gmtCreate":1775621906629,"gmtModify":1775621909101,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"无语","listText":"无语","text":"无语","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551321877062984","repostId":"2625967899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625967899","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775618400,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2625967899?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-08 11:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从惊魂到TACO！特朗普震惊世界的12小时","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625967899","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"从威胁“整个文明将消亡”，到“停火两周”，特朗普的这场戏剧性逆转只花了十个小时二十六分钟。在这期间，全球市场和油价随着他的每条推文剧烈摇摆。然而，短暂的停火之下，美伊根本性的问题依然悬而未决。同时，特朗普一次次的极端言论遭致批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>从威胁“整个文明将消亡”，到“停火两周”，特朗普的这场戏剧性逆转只花了十个小时二十六分钟。在这期间，全球市场和油价随着他的每条推文剧烈摇摆。然而，短暂的停火之下，美伊根本性的问题依然悬而未决。同时，特朗普一次次的极端言论遭致批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间2026年4月7日，星期二，上午8时06分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social发出一条简短的帖子：&#34;今晚，整个文明将消亡，永远无法重建。&#34;他给伊朗设定了一个最后期限：当晚8时前，要么谈成协议，要么承受后果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这条帖子随即在全球范围内引发连锁反应——从德黑兰的普通居民，到华尔街的交易大厅，再到欧洲外交官的紧急电话会议。<strong>这是特朗普执政以来最具戏剧性的一次极限施压。</strong>此外，《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。<strong>这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而距离他自己设定的截止时间还剩不到90分钟时，特朗普又再度发文，宣布同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸行动两周。据新华社报道，特朗普当晚在社交媒体发文称：&#34;我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从&#34;整个文明将消亡&#34;，到&#34;暂停两周&#34;，中间只隔了十个小时二十六分钟。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这次美伊短暂的停火，与其说是危机解除，不如说是将更为深层的矛盾暂时搁置。若双方无法达成协议，<strong>两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。</strong>媒体分析称，美伊之间多年来的根本性问题依然悬而未决，核心症结之一便是伊朗核计划中不断增长的浓缩铀库存。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8fa4fbac71aeaa7e6503957c737d66\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4207273577\" style=\"text-align: left;\">一条帖子，世界屏住呼吸</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当特朗普的帖子出现在屏幕上时，全球各地的反应几乎在同一时间启动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在伊朗，许多居民开始为停电和断气做准备。</strong>据《华尔街日报》报道，有人翻出旧式野营炉，重新灌满油罐。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">帖子发出不到30分钟，据该媒体援引阿拉伯国家官员的信息，伊朗官员告知埃及，德黑兰已中断与美方谈判代表的直接联系。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队也随即发出警告：一旦美国越过&#34;红线&#34;，伊方将&#34;不再克制&#34;，并将沙特阿美、延布石油设施及阿联酋富查伊拉输油管道列为潜在打击目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>前以色列总理Ehud Olmert读到这条消息时，正值以色列防空警报响起，他躲进自家防空洞</strong>，在警报声中表态：&#34;我倾向于不按字面意思接受特朗普总统的声明。我希望他的意思是摧毁政权，而不是摧毁伊朗文明。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，美东时间上午9时，美国国防部长Pete Hegseth与参谋长联席会议主席Dan Caine将军接入与中央司令部司令Brad Cooper上将的每日视频会议。据报道<strong>，军事规划人员此前已在准备针对伊朗能源基础设施的潜在打击方案，并调出了已经过军事律师审核的目标清单。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但该清单的实际规模，远小于特朗普帖子中所描述的&#34;伊朗每一座发电厂都将燃烧爆炸&#34;。据悉，每一个目标均须满足合法性要求：与伊朗军事和安全力量有明确关联，且不对平民造成过度伤害。报道称，<strong>当晚美军对霍尔木兹海峡附近的哈尔克岛（Kharg Island）超过50处目标实施了打击，但并未轰炸石油基础设施。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">五角大楼发言人Sean Parnell表示：&#34;整个国防部服从总统的指令，将坚定执行他的军事目标。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_368435596\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街：一眼盯屏幕，一眼盯Truth Social</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，这一天有着特殊的节奏——<strong>它不像传统地缘冲突那样由战场消息主导，而是几乎完全跟随着特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖子起伏。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据华尔街见闻梳理：过去12小时，市场对每一条声明、推文或媒体报道均作出剧烈反应：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股盘前，</strong>特朗普设定的最终期限美东时间7日晚8点正在逼近，威胁言论一度推升油价超3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股早盘，</strong>消息称伊朗不再直接与美国沟通。而后美股在周二早盘跌幅扩大，纳斯达克100指数跌幅扩大至1.5%，原油进一步走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股午盘，</strong>美媒援引知情人士的消息称，过去24小时内，美国与伊朗之间的谈判已取得一线进展，油价又告回落。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股尾盘，</strong>巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹称，请求特朗普将最后期限推迟两周，三大美股指再度收窄跌幅，标普和纳指惊险收涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股盘后，</strong>特朗普延长伊朗谈判的最后期限，称伊朗同意开通霍尔木兹海峡。WTI原油期货跌幅扩大，标普股指期货、道指期货涨幅扩大至1.7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e08f7a6746266ca64eaeb54d1a96a8b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"663\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">资产管理公司OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官Peter Boockvar形容那种感觉：<strong>&#34;令人头晕目眩。一只眼睛盯着行情屏幕，另一只眼睛盯着特朗普的Truth Social页面。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这期间，花旗集团（Citigroup）则启动了类似总统大选期间的应急协议，暂停了交易工具的细微代码更新等可能拖慢系统运行的操作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>技术投资者、企业高管们的通讯群组也在特朗普发帖后迅速炸开。</strong>前特朗普顾问、现任企业顾问Bryan Lanza在度假期间仍接到来自能源和金融业客户的大量咨询，他力劝各方保持冷静，认为特朗普不会真正兑现威胁。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">总体而言，华尔街的共识与此前多次特朗普式截止日类似：视其为谈判手段，而非真实行动的前奏。</p><h2 id=\"id_3302921811\" style=\"text-align: left;\">支持者动摇，盟友罕见发声</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">压力不仅来自市场，还来自特朗普政治圈的内部。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据报道，<strong>白宫内部有官员私下对总统的帖子感到不安，认为其对外交事务的过度关注正在分散对国内议题的注意力，而这些议题才是赢得民心的关键。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交媒体上，拥有逾200万粉丝的网络媒体人Tim Pool在接受采访时说：&#34;他是在试图表现得具有威胁性和疯狂。&#34;他警告称，若特朗普未能兑现，&#34;我们将看到皇帝没有穿衣服……这将是他最后的赌注。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">欧洲盟友的批评则更加直接。法国外长Jean-Noël Barrot公开表态：&#34;一个文明，不能被抹去。&#34;特朗普最亲密的欧洲盟友之一、意大利总理Giorgia Meloni也罕见发声批评：&#34;必须明确区分一个政权的责任和数百万普通公民的命运。伊朗平民不能，也不应该为其领导人的罪行付出代价。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">教皇Leo与演员Ben Stiller也在各自的公开渠道呼吁停止升级。</p><h2 id=\"id_3070354447\" style=\"text-align: left;\">巴基斯坦递上&#34;台阶&#34;，特朗普接下</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>外交上的转机，出现在午后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据《华尔街日报》报道，<strong>当地时间4月7日下午3时刚过，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹（Shehbaz Sharif）公开呼吁特朗普将最后期限延长两周，并推动美伊停火，同时敦促德黑兰在同期重开霍尔木兹海峡以示善意。白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt随即回应：&#34;总统已获悉该提案，将予以回复。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普随后告知福克斯新闻，美方正处于&#34;激烈谈判&#34;之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整个下午，特朗普与核心幕僚在椭圆形办公室闭门研商，听取各方利弊分析。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，美东时间当晚6时32分，特朗普在Truth Social发文，宣布暂停预定的打击行动：&#34;在伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即且安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡的前提下，我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社综合报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会随后发表声明，确认将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，同时表明伊方对美方&#34;抱有完全的不信任&#34;。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹证实，双方同意即日起在所有地点立即停火，并邀请美伊双方代表团于4月10日赴伊斯兰堡进一步谈判。</p><h2 id=\"id_3891235451\" style=\"text-align: left;\">停火之后：根本问题悬而未决</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">《纽约时报》援引分析人士观点指出，<strong>这场短期的停火或许是特朗普极限施压战术的一次战术成功，但五周战事留下的根本分歧并未因此消解。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题清单相当具体。伊朗目前仍持有约970磅60%浓缩度的铀——这正是此次战争在名义上的导火索之一。报道指出，若谈判最终无法将其移出伊朗境外，特朗普将在&#34;每天耗资数十亿美元&#34;的战争中，获得比奥巴马政府2015年核协议更少的成果。彼时，伊朗依据协议将其97%的核存量运出了境外。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，伊朗展示了在承受逾1.3万次精准打击后仍能维持非对称战争的能力——封锁石油运输、对美国基础设施发动网络攻击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国内部同样出现裂痕。据报道，<strong>特朗普的部分早期支持者开始公开指责总统及副总统万斯违背了&#34;不让美国深陷中东烂仗&#34;的竞选承诺。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周之后，当停火到期，谈判能否取得实质进展，目前没有人能给出确定答案。正如Fontaine所言：<strong>&#34;也许这最终会奏效。但也有可能，这场战争结束时，美国和世界的处境比开战前更糟。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，部分美国官员也已表达了担忧：若伊朗无法完全满足特朗普的要求，两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。</p><h2 id=\"id_1915621277\">停火条款：伊朗的&#34;十点计划&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而停火的达成，并不意味着分歧的弥合，而真正的棘手之处藏在谈判条款里。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会公布了通过巴基斯坦递交给美方的十点停战条款，核心内容包括：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">霍尔木兹海峡须在与伊朗武装力量协调下实现&#34;受控通行&#34;，<strong>伊朗享有主导地位</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国作战部队从该地区所有基地和部署点全面撤出；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">解除针对伊朗的所有一级和二级制裁，撤销相关联合国安理会及国际原子能机构决议；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">解冻伊朗所有被冻结海外资产；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>承认伊朗的铀浓缩权利</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据评估结果全额赔偿伊朗战争损失；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">结束对&#34;抵抗轴心&#34;所有成员的战争，终结以色列的军事行动。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据央视新闻报道，一名匿名地区官员还透露，<strong>停火计划包括允许伊朗和阿曼对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，伊朗将把这笔费用用于战后重建。这将是这条国际水道历史上首次征收通行费。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗外长阿拉格齐（Abbas Araghchi）发表声明，宣布霍尔木兹海峡将在两周内实现安全通航，但未给出具体恢复日期。他在声明中强调，通行将在&#34;伊朗武装力量&#34;的管控下进行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对此，美国新安全中心（Center for a New American Security）首席执行官Richard Fontaine向《纽约时报》表示：<strong>&#34;伊朗仍然控制着霍尔木兹海峡，而战前并非如此。我很难相信，美国和国际社会能够无限期接受伊朗掌控这一关键能源咽喉的局面。这将是比战前更糟糕的结果。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fontaine还指出，伊朗提交的十点计划&#34;读起来像是伊朗战前的愿望清单&#34;，而特朗普在4月7日晚间同意将其作为谈判基础——尽管仅仅数周前，他还在要求伊朗&#34;无条件投降&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_1079922803\">特朗普极端言论引发批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。<strong>这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在总统及其支持者看来，这都是特朗普混乱谈判风格的一部分，旨在促使他自导自演的冲突结束，并说服德黑兰开放海峡。一些总统顾问甚至认为，特朗普不断升级的言论是一种谈判策略，表明他更倾向于寻找摆脱战争的出路，而不是真的要发动毁灭性袭击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这种“冲动且不可预测”的领导风格，正面临前所未有的质疑。核冲突历史学家亚历克斯·韦勒斯坦（Alex Wellerstein）表示，即使威胁最终未兑现，这种暴力言论也损害了美国作为谈判者的信誉及其国际地位，<strong>让世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”，而非“可靠的伙伴”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国国内的批评声浪也随之高涨。右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森（Tucker Carlson）表示，总统的复活节信息“破坏了基督教最神圣的日子”，“在各个层面都令人厌恶。”他直言，这种威胁使用美国军事力量摧毁他国民用基础设施的行为，是“战争罪，是对该国人民的道德犯罪”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前国家反恐中心主任乔·肯特（Joe Kent）也在X上发文指出：“特朗普认为他在威胁伊朗使其毁灭，但现在美国却处于危险之中。如果他试图根除伊朗文明，美国将不再被视为世界稳定的力量，而是混乱的制造者——这将有效终结我们作为世界超级大国的地位。”即便一些国会共和党人，如威斯康星州参议员罗恩·约翰逊（Ron Johnson），也表示“希望并祈祷特朗普总统只是虚张声势”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管特朗普此前有过类似的“剧本”——通过不断升级的威胁达成某种协议并宣布胜利。但他不断升级的暴力言论暴露出一种挫败感，即他未能通过此前推迟的轰炸基础设施的最后期限达到目的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从惊魂到TACO！特朗普震惊世界的12小时</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从惊魂到TACO！特朗普震惊世界的12小时\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-08 11:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>从威胁“整个文明将消亡”，到“停火两周”，特朗普的这场戏剧性逆转只花了十个小时二十六分钟。在这期间，全球市场和油价随着他的每条推文剧烈摇摆。然而，短暂的停火之下，美伊根本性的问题依然悬而未决。同时，特朗普一次次的极端言论遭致批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间2026年4月7日，星期二，上午8时06分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social发出一条简短的帖子：&#34;今晚，整个文明将消亡，永远无法重建。&#34;他给伊朗设定了一个最后期限：当晚8时前，要么谈成协议，要么承受后果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这条帖子随即在全球范围内引发连锁反应——从德黑兰的普通居民，到华尔街的交易大厅，再到欧洲外交官的紧急电话会议。<strong>这是特朗普执政以来最具戏剧性的一次极限施压。</strong>此外，《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。<strong>这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而距离他自己设定的截止时间还剩不到90分钟时，特朗普又再度发文，宣布同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸行动两周。据新华社报道，特朗普当晚在社交媒体发文称：&#34;我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从&#34;整个文明将消亡&#34;，到&#34;暂停两周&#34;，中间只隔了十个小时二十六分钟。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，这次美伊短暂的停火，与其说是危机解除，不如说是将更为深层的矛盾暂时搁置。若双方无法达成协议，<strong>两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。</strong>媒体分析称，美伊之间多年来的根本性问题依然悬而未决，核心症结之一便是伊朗核计划中不断增长的浓缩铀库存。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8fa4fbac71aeaa7e6503957c737d66\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_4207273577\" style=\"text-align: left;\">一条帖子，世界屏住呼吸</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当特朗普的帖子出现在屏幕上时，全球各地的反应几乎在同一时间启动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在伊朗，许多居民开始为停电和断气做准备。</strong>据《华尔街日报》报道，有人翻出旧式野营炉，重新灌满油罐。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">帖子发出不到30分钟，据该媒体援引阿拉伯国家官员的信息，伊朗官员告知埃及，德黑兰已中断与美方谈判代表的直接联系。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队也随即发出警告：一旦美国越过&#34;红线&#34;，伊方将&#34;不再克制&#34;，并将沙特阿美、延布石油设施及阿联酋富查伊拉输油管道列为潜在打击目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>前以色列总理Ehud Olmert读到这条消息时，正值以色列防空警报响起，他躲进自家防空洞</strong>，在警报声中表态：&#34;我倾向于不按字面意思接受特朗普总统的声明。我希望他的意思是摧毁政权，而不是摧毁伊朗文明。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，美东时间上午9时，美国国防部长Pete Hegseth与参谋长联席会议主席Dan Caine将军接入与中央司令部司令Brad Cooper上将的每日视频会议。据报道<strong>，军事规划人员此前已在准备针对伊朗能源基础设施的潜在打击方案，并调出了已经过军事律师审核的目标清单。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但该清单的实际规模，远小于特朗普帖子中所描述的&#34;伊朗每一座发电厂都将燃烧爆炸&#34;。据悉，每一个目标均须满足合法性要求：与伊朗军事和安全力量有明确关联，且不对平民造成过度伤害。报道称，<strong>当晚美军对霍尔木兹海峡附近的哈尔克岛（Kharg Island）超过50处目标实施了打击，但并未轰炸石油基础设施。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">五角大楼发言人Sean Parnell表示：&#34;整个国防部服从总统的指令，将坚定执行他的军事目标。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_368435596\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街：一眼盯屏幕，一眼盯Truth Social</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，这一天有着特殊的节奏——<strong>它不像传统地缘冲突那样由战场消息主导，而是几乎完全跟随着特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖子起伏。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据华尔街见闻梳理：过去12小时，市场对每一条声明、推文或媒体报道均作出剧烈反应：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股盘前，</strong>特朗普设定的最终期限美东时间7日晚8点正在逼近，威胁言论一度推升油价超3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股早盘，</strong>消息称伊朗不再直接与美国沟通。而后美股在周二早盘跌幅扩大，纳斯达克100指数跌幅扩大至1.5%，原油进一步走高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股午盘，</strong>美媒援引知情人士的消息称，过去24小时内，美国与伊朗之间的谈判已取得一线进展，油价又告回落。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股尾盘，</strong>巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹称，请求特朗普将最后期限推迟两周，三大美股指再度收窄跌幅，标普和纳指惊险收涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美股盘后，</strong>特朗普延长伊朗谈判的最后期限，称伊朗同意开通霍尔木兹海峡。WTI原油期货跌幅扩大，标普股指期货、道指期货涨幅扩大至1.7%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e08f7a6746266ca64eaeb54d1a96a8b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"663\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">资产管理公司OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官Peter Boockvar形容那种感觉：<strong>&#34;令人头晕目眩。一只眼睛盯着行情屏幕，另一只眼睛盯着特朗普的Truth Social页面。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这期间，花旗集团（Citigroup）则启动了类似总统大选期间的应急协议，暂停了交易工具的细微代码更新等可能拖慢系统运行的操作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>技术投资者、企业高管们的通讯群组也在特朗普发帖后迅速炸开。</strong>前特朗普顾问、现任企业顾问Bryan Lanza在度假期间仍接到来自能源和金融业客户的大量咨询，他力劝各方保持冷静，认为特朗普不会真正兑现威胁。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">总体而言，华尔街的共识与此前多次特朗普式截止日类似：视其为谈判手段，而非真实行动的前奏。</p><h2 id=\"id_3302921811\" style=\"text-align: left;\">支持者动摇，盟友罕见发声</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">压力不仅来自市场，还来自特朗普政治圈的内部。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据报道，<strong>白宫内部有官员私下对总统的帖子感到不安，认为其对外交事务的过度关注正在分散对国内议题的注意力，而这些议题才是赢得民心的关键。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交媒体上，拥有逾200万粉丝的网络媒体人Tim Pool在接受采访时说：&#34;他是在试图表现得具有威胁性和疯狂。&#34;他警告称，若特朗普未能兑现，&#34;我们将看到皇帝没有穿衣服……这将是他最后的赌注。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">欧洲盟友的批评则更加直接。法国外长Jean-Noël Barrot公开表态：&#34;一个文明，不能被抹去。&#34;特朗普最亲密的欧洲盟友之一、意大利总理Giorgia Meloni也罕见发声批评：&#34;必须明确区分一个政权的责任和数百万普通公民的命运。伊朗平民不能，也不应该为其领导人的罪行付出代价。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">教皇Leo与演员Ben Stiller也在各自的公开渠道呼吁停止升级。</p><h2 id=\"id_3070354447\" style=\"text-align: left;\">巴基斯坦递上&#34;台阶&#34;，特朗普接下</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>外交上的转机，出现在午后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据《华尔街日报》报道，<strong>当地时间4月7日下午3时刚过，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹（Shehbaz Sharif）公开呼吁特朗普将最后期限延长两周，并推动美伊停火，同时敦促德黑兰在同期重开霍尔木兹海峡以示善意。白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt随即回应：&#34;总统已获悉该提案，将予以回复。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普随后告知福克斯新闻，美方正处于&#34;激烈谈判&#34;之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整个下午，特朗普与核心幕僚在椭圆形办公室闭门研商，听取各方利弊分析。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，美东时间当晚6时32分，特朗普在Truth Social发文，宣布暂停预定的打击行动：&#34;在伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即且安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡的前提下，我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社综合报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会随后发表声明，确认将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，同时表明伊方对美方&#34;抱有完全的不信任&#34;。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹证实，双方同意即日起在所有地点立即停火，并邀请美伊双方代表团于4月10日赴伊斯兰堡进一步谈判。</p><h2 id=\"id_3891235451\" style=\"text-align: left;\">停火之后：根本问题悬而未决</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">《纽约时报》援引分析人士观点指出，<strong>这场短期的停火或许是特朗普极限施压战术的一次战术成功，但五周战事留下的根本分歧并未因此消解。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题清单相当具体。伊朗目前仍持有约970磅60%浓缩度的铀——这正是此次战争在名义上的导火索之一。报道指出，若谈判最终无法将其移出伊朗境外，特朗普将在&#34;每天耗资数十亿美元&#34;的战争中，获得比奥巴马政府2015年核协议更少的成果。彼时，伊朗依据协议将其97%的核存量运出了境外。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，伊朗展示了在承受逾1.3万次精准打击后仍能维持非对称战争的能力——封锁石油运输、对美国基础设施发动网络攻击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国内部同样出现裂痕。据报道，<strong>特朗普的部分早期支持者开始公开指责总统及副总统万斯违背了&#34;不让美国深陷中东烂仗&#34;的竞选承诺。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两周之后，当停火到期，谈判能否取得实质进展，目前没有人能给出确定答案。正如Fontaine所言：<strong>&#34;也许这最终会奏效。但也有可能，这场战争结束时，美国和世界的处境比开战前更糟。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，部分美国官员也已表达了担忧：若伊朗无法完全满足特朗普的要求，两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。</p><h2 id=\"id_1915621277\">停火条款：伊朗的&#34;十点计划&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而停火的达成，并不意味着分歧的弥合，而真正的棘手之处藏在谈判条款里。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会公布了通过巴基斯坦递交给美方的十点停战条款，核心内容包括：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">霍尔木兹海峡须在与伊朗武装力量协调下实现&#34;受控通行&#34;，<strong>伊朗享有主导地位</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国作战部队从该地区所有基地和部署点全面撤出；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">解除针对伊朗的所有一级和二级制裁，撤销相关联合国安理会及国际原子能机构决议；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">解冻伊朗所有被冻结海外资产；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>承认伊朗的铀浓缩权利</strong>；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据评估结果全额赔偿伊朗战争损失；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">结束对&#34;抵抗轴心&#34;所有成员的战争，终结以色列的军事行动。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据央视新闻报道，一名匿名地区官员还透露，<strong>停火计划包括允许伊朗和阿曼对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，伊朗将把这笔费用用于战后重建。这将是这条国际水道历史上首次征收通行费。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗外长阿拉格齐（Abbas Araghchi）发表声明，宣布霍尔木兹海峡将在两周内实现安全通航，但未给出具体恢复日期。他在声明中强调，通行将在&#34;伊朗武装力量&#34;的管控下进行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对此，美国新安全中心（Center for a New American Security）首席执行官Richard Fontaine向《纽约时报》表示：<strong>&#34;伊朗仍然控制着霍尔木兹海峡，而战前并非如此。我很难相信，美国和国际社会能够无限期接受伊朗掌控这一关键能源咽喉的局面。这将是比战前更糟糕的结果。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fontaine还指出，伊朗提交的十点计划&#34;读起来像是伊朗战前的愿望清单&#34;，而特朗普在4月7日晚间同意将其作为谈判基础——尽管仅仅数周前，他还在要求伊朗&#34;无条件投降&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_1079922803\">特朗普极端言论引发批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。<strong>这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在总统及其支持者看来，这都是特朗普混乱谈判风格的一部分，旨在促使他自导自演的冲突结束，并说服德黑兰开放海峡。一些总统顾问甚至认为，特朗普不断升级的言论是一种谈判策略，表明他更倾向于寻找摆脱战争的出路，而不是真的要发动毁灭性袭击。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这种“冲动且不可预测”的领导风格，正面临前所未有的质疑。核冲突历史学家亚历克斯·韦勒斯坦（Alex Wellerstein）表示，即使威胁最终未兑现，这种暴力言论也损害了美国作为谈判者的信誉及其国际地位，<strong>让世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”，而非“可靠的伙伴”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国国内的批评声浪也随之高涨。右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森（Tucker Carlson）表示，总统的复活节信息“破坏了基督教最神圣的日子”，“在各个层面都令人厌恶。”他直言，这种威胁使用美国军事力量摧毁他国民用基础设施的行为，是“战争罪，是对该国人民的道德犯罪”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前国家反恐中心主任乔·肯特（Joe Kent）也在X上发文指出：“特朗普认为他在威胁伊朗使其毁灭，但现在美国却处于危险之中。如果他试图根除伊朗文明，美国将不再被视为世界稳定的力量，而是混乱的制造者——这将有效终结我们作为世界超级大国的地位。”即便一些国会共和党人，如威斯康星州参议员罗恩·约翰逊（Ron Johnson），也表示“希望并祈祷特朗普总统只是虚张声势”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管特朗普此前有过类似的“剧本”——通过不断升级的威胁达成某种协议并宣布胜利。但他不断升级的暴力言论暴露出一种挫败感，即他未能通过此前推迟的轰炸基础设施的最后期限达到目的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8fa4fbac71aeaa7e6503957c737d66","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4209":"餐馆",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769455","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625967899","content_text":"从威胁“整个文明将消亡”，到“停火两周”，特朗普的这场戏剧性逆转只花了十个小时二十六分钟。在这期间，全球市场和油价随着他的每条推文剧烈摇摆。然而，短暂的停火之下，美伊根本性的问题依然悬而未决。同时，特朗普一次次的极端言论遭致批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”。美东时间2026年4月7日，星期二，上午8时06分。特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social发出一条简短的帖子：\"今晚，整个文明将消亡，永远无法重建。\"他给伊朗设定了一个最后期限：当晚8时前，要么谈成协议，要么承受后果。这条帖子随即在全球范围内引发连锁反应——从德黑兰的普通居民，到华尔街的交易大厅，再到欧洲外交官的紧急电话会议。这是特朗普执政以来最具戏剧性的一次极限施压。此外，《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。而距离他自己设定的截止时间还剩不到90分钟时，特朗普又再度发文，宣布同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸行动两周。据新华社报道，特朗普当晚在社交媒体发文称：\"我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。从\"整个文明将消亡\"，到\"暂停两周\"，中间只隔了十个小时二十六分钟。然而，这次美伊短暂的停火，与其说是危机解除，不如说是将更为深层的矛盾暂时搁置。若双方无法达成协议，两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。媒体分析称，美伊之间多年来的根本性问题依然悬而未决，核心症结之一便是伊朗核计划中不断增长的浓缩铀库存。一条帖子，世界屏住呼吸当特朗普的帖子出现在屏幕上时，全球各地的反应几乎在同一时间启动。在伊朗，许多居民开始为停电和断气做准备。据《华尔街日报》报道，有人翻出旧式野营炉，重新灌满油罐。帖子发出不到30分钟，据该媒体援引阿拉伯国家官员的信息，伊朗官员告知埃及，德黑兰已中断与美方谈判代表的直接联系。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队也随即发出警告：一旦美国越过\"红线\"，伊方将\"不再克制\"，并将沙特阿美、延布石油设施及阿联酋富查伊拉输油管道列为潜在打击目标。前以色列总理Ehud Olmert读到这条消息时，正值以色列防空警报响起，他躲进自家防空洞，在警报声中表态：\"我倾向于不按字面意思接受特朗普总统的声明。我希望他的意思是摧毁政权，而不是摧毁伊朗文明。\"与此同时，美东时间上午9时，美国国防部长Pete Hegseth与参谋长联席会议主席Dan Caine将军接入与中央司令部司令Brad Cooper上将的每日视频会议。据报道，军事规划人员此前已在准备针对伊朗能源基础设施的潜在打击方案，并调出了已经过军事律师审核的目标清单。但该清单的实际规模，远小于特朗普帖子中所描述的\"伊朗每一座发电厂都将燃烧爆炸\"。据悉，每一个目标均须满足合法性要求：与伊朗军事和安全力量有明确关联，且不对平民造成过度伤害。报道称，当晚美军对霍尔木兹海峡附近的哈尔克岛（Kharg Island）超过50处目标实施了打击，但并未轰炸石油基础设施。五角大楼发言人Sean Parnell表示：\"整个国防部服从总统的指令，将坚定执行他的军事目标。\"华尔街：一眼盯屏幕，一眼盯Truth Social对于市场而言，这一天有着特殊的节奏——它不像传统地缘冲突那样由战场消息主导，而是几乎完全跟随着特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖子起伏。据华尔街见闻梳理：过去12小时，市场对每一条声明、推文或媒体报道均作出剧烈反应：美股盘前，特朗普设定的最终期限美东时间7日晚8点正在逼近，威胁言论一度推升油价超3%。美股早盘，消息称伊朗不再直接与美国沟通。而后美股在周二早盘跌幅扩大，纳斯达克100指数跌幅扩大至1.5%，原油进一步走高。美股午盘，美媒援引知情人士的消息称，过去24小时内，美国与伊朗之间的谈判已取得一线进展，油价又告回落。美股尾盘，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹称，请求特朗普将最后期限推迟两周，三大美股指再度收窄跌幅，标普和纳指惊险收涨。美股盘后，特朗普延长伊朗谈判的最后期限，称伊朗同意开通霍尔木兹海峡。WTI原油期货跌幅扩大，标普股指期货、道指期货涨幅扩大至1.7%。资产管理公司OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官Peter Boockvar形容那种感觉：\"令人头晕目眩。一只眼睛盯着行情屏幕，另一只眼睛盯着特朗普的Truth Social页面。\"在这期间，花旗集团（Citigroup）则启动了类似总统大选期间的应急协议，暂停了交易工具的细微代码更新等可能拖慢系统运行的操作。技术投资者、企业高管们的通讯群组也在特朗普发帖后迅速炸开。前特朗普顾问、现任企业顾问Bryan Lanza在度假期间仍接到来自能源和金融业客户的大量咨询，他力劝各方保持冷静，认为特朗普不会真正兑现威胁。总体而言，华尔街的共识与此前多次特朗普式截止日类似：视其为谈判手段，而非真实行动的前奏。支持者动摇，盟友罕见发声压力不仅来自市场，还来自特朗普政治圈的内部。据报道，白宫内部有官员私下对总统的帖子感到不安，认为其对外交事务的过度关注正在分散对国内议题的注意力，而这些议题才是赢得民心的关键。社交媒体上，拥有逾200万粉丝的网络媒体人Tim Pool在接受采访时说：\"他是在试图表现得具有威胁性和疯狂。\"他警告称，若特朗普未能兑现，\"我们将看到皇帝没有穿衣服……这将是他最后的赌注。\"欧洲盟友的批评则更加直接。法国外长Jean-Noël Barrot公开表态：\"一个文明，不能被抹去。\"特朗普最亲密的欧洲盟友之一、意大利总理Giorgia Meloni也罕见发声批评：\"必须明确区分一个政权的责任和数百万普通公民的命运。伊朗平民不能，也不应该为其领导人的罪行付出代价。\"教皇Leo与演员Ben Stiller也在各自的公开渠道呼吁停止升级。巴基斯坦递上\"台阶\"，特朗普接下外交上的转机，出现在午后。据《华尔街日报》报道，当地时间4月7日下午3时刚过，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹（Shehbaz Sharif）公开呼吁特朗普将最后期限延长两周，并推动美伊停火，同时敦促德黑兰在同期重开霍尔木兹海峡以示善意。白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt随即回应：\"总统已获悉该提案，将予以回复。\"特朗普随后告知福克斯新闻，美方正处于\"激烈谈判\"之中。整个下午，特朗普与核心幕僚在椭圆形办公室闭门研商，听取各方利弊分析。据新华社报道，美东时间当晚6时32分，特朗普在Truth Social发文，宣布暂停预定的打击行动：\"在伊朗伊斯兰共和国同意全面、立即且安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡的前提下，我同意暂停对伊朗的轰炸和袭击行动，为期两周。\"据新华社综合报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会随后发表声明，确认将在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡与美国展开为期两周的政治谈判，同时表明伊方对美方\"抱有完全的不信任\"。巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹证实，双方同意即日起在所有地点立即停火，并邀请美伊双方代表团于4月10日赴伊斯兰堡进一步谈判。停火之后：根本问题悬而未决《纽约时报》援引分析人士观点指出，这场短期的停火或许是特朗普极限施压战术的一次战术成功，但五周战事留下的根本分歧并未因此消解。问题清单相当具体。伊朗目前仍持有约970磅60%浓缩度的铀——这正是此次战争在名义上的导火索之一。报道指出，若谈判最终无法将其移出伊朗境外，特朗普将在\"每天耗资数十亿美元\"的战争中，获得比奥巴马政府2015年核协议更少的成果。彼时，伊朗依据协议将其97%的核存量运出了境外。此外，伊朗展示了在承受逾1.3万次精准打击后仍能维持非对称战争的能力——封锁石油运输、对美国基础设施发动网络攻击。美国内部同样出现裂痕。据报道，特朗普的部分早期支持者开始公开指责总统及副总统万斯违背了\"不让美国深陷中东烂仗\"的竞选承诺。两周之后，当停火到期，谈判能否取得实质进展，目前没有人能给出确定答案。正如Fontaine所言：\"也许这最终会奏效。但也有可能，这场战争结束时，美国和世界的处境比开战前更糟。\"据新华社报道，部分美国官员也已表达了担忧：若伊朗无法完全满足特朗普的要求，两周后华盛顿与德黑兰可能再度走向对抗边缘。停火条款：伊朗的\"十点计划\"而停火的达成，并不意味着分歧的弥合，而真正的棘手之处藏在谈判条款里。据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会公布了通过巴基斯坦递交给美方的十点停战条款，核心内容包括：霍尔木兹海峡须在与伊朗武装力量协调下实现\"受控通行\"，伊朗享有主导地位；美国作战部队从该地区所有基地和部署点全面撤出；解除针对伊朗的所有一级和二级制裁，撤销相关联合国安理会及国际原子能机构决议；解冻伊朗所有被冻结海外资产；承认伊朗的铀浓缩权利；根据评估结果全额赔偿伊朗战争损失；结束对\"抵抗轴心\"所有成员的战争，终结以色列的军事行动。据央视新闻报道，一名匿名地区官员还透露，停火计划包括允许伊朗和阿曼对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，伊朗将把这笔费用用于战后重建。这将是这条国际水道历史上首次征收通行费。伊朗外长阿拉格齐（Abbas Araghchi）发表声明，宣布霍尔木兹海峡将在两周内实现安全通航，但未给出具体恢复日期。他在声明中强调，通行将在\"伊朗武装力量\"的管控下进行。对此，美国新安全中心（Center for a New American Security）首席执行官Richard Fontaine向《纽约时报》表示：\"伊朗仍然控制着霍尔木兹海峡，而战前并非如此。我很难相信，美国和国际社会能够无限期接受伊朗掌控这一关键能源咽喉的局面。这将是比战前更糟糕的结果。\"Fontaine还指出，伊朗提交的十点计划\"读起来像是伊朗战前的愿望清单\"，而特朗普在4月7日晚间同意将其作为谈判基础——尽管仅仅数周前，他还在要求伊朗\"无条件投降\"。特朗普极端言论引发批评：世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”《纽约时报》评论指出，特朗普此次“消灭伊朗文明”的惊人威胁，带着他惯常的、漫不经心的冷酷无情，这已成为他偏好的沟通方式。这种极端言论，甚至包含国际法可能定义的战争罪，却轻松地发布在Truth Social上，旁边还点缀着子弹形钢笔、爱国帽和海湖庄园晚宴的广告。在总统及其支持者看来，这都是特朗普混乱谈判风格的一部分，旨在促使他自导自演的冲突结束，并说服德黑兰开放海峡。一些总统顾问甚至认为，特朗普不断升级的言论是一种谈判策略，表明他更倾向于寻找摆脱战争的出路，而不是真的要发动毁灭性袭击。然而，这种“冲动且不可预测”的领导风格，正面临前所未有的质疑。核冲突历史学家亚历克斯·韦勒斯坦（Alex Wellerstein）表示，即使威胁最终未兑现，这种暴力言论也损害了美国作为谈判者的信誉及其国际地位，让世界日益认为美国“精神失常且危险”，而非“可靠的伙伴”。美国国内的批评声浪也随之高涨。右翼播客主持人塔克·卡尔森（Tucker Carlson）表示，总统的复活节信息“破坏了基督教最神圣的日子”，“在各个层面都令人厌恶。”他直言，这种威胁使用美国军事力量摧毁他国民用基础设施的行为，是“战争罪，是对该国人民的道德犯罪”。前国家反恐中心主任乔·肯特（Joe Kent）也在X上发文指出：“特朗普认为他在威胁伊朗使其毁灭，但现在美国却处于危险之中。如果他试图根除伊朗文明，美国将不再被视为世界稳定的力量，而是混乱的制造者——这将有效终结我们作为世界超级大国的地位。”即便一些国会共和党人，如威斯康星州参议员罗恩·约翰逊（Ron Johnson），也表示“希望并祈祷特朗普总统只是虚张声势”。尽管特朗普此前有过类似的“剧本”——通过不断升级的威胁达成某种协议并宣布胜利。但他不断升级的暴力言论暴露出一种挫败感，即他未能通过此前推迟的轰炸基础设施的最后期限达到目的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MNQ2612":2,"NDX":2,".DJI":2,"NQmain":2,"ESmain":2,".SPX":2,"MNQmain":2,"YMmain":2,"MNQ2603":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543821100204600,"gmtCreate":1773757279612,"gmtModify":1773757281553,"author":{"id":"4208535143263322","authorId":"4208535143263322","name":"嘻嘻瓜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208535143263322","authorIdStr":"4208535143263322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543821100204600","repostId":"1127585708","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127585708","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1773754387,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127585708?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-17 21:33","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 英伟达重申铜技术路线，COHERENT盘中大跌5.55%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127585708","media":"异动解读","summary":"光学器件公司COHERENT(COHR)今日盘中股价大跌5.55%，引起了市场的关注。消息面上，英伟达(NVDA)CEO黄仁勋在GTC演讲中重申，其即将推出的Vera Rubin Ultra和Feynman产品线将同时采用铜技术和共封装光学技术，两种方案将并行推进。这一表态被市场解读为对光学互连技术需求的预期有所调整，对COHERENT等光学器件公司构成压力。摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔指出，市场对共封装光学技术的期待可能“超前于下游产业链的准备情况”。英伟达双线并进的策略，意味着铜互连技术在未来一段时间内仍将扮演重要角色，这可能影响了投资者对COHERENT等公司短期增长前景的看法。","content":"<p>光学器件公司COHERENT(COHR)今日盘中股价大跌5.55%，引起了市场的关注。</p><p>消息面上，英伟达(NVDA)CEO黄仁勋在GTC演讲中重申，其即将推出的Vera Rubin Ultra和Feynman产品线将同时采用铜技术和共封装光学技术，两种方案将并行推进。这一表态被市场解读为对光学互连技术需求的预期有所调整，对COHERENT等光学器件公司构成压力。</p><p>摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔指出，市场对共封装光学技术的期待可能“超前于下游产业链的准备情况”。英伟达双线并进的策略，意味着铜互连技术在未来一段时间内仍将扮演重要角色，这可能影响了投资者对COHERENT等公司短期增长前景的看法。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-17 21:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>光学器件公司COHERENT(COHR)今日盘中股价大跌5.55%，引起了市场的关注。</p><p>消息面上，英伟达(NVDA)CEO黄仁勋在GTC演讲中重申，其即将推出的Vera Rubin Ultra和Feynman产品线将同时采用铜技术和共封装光学技术，两种方案将并行推进。这一表态被市场解读为对光学互连技术需求的预期有所调整，对COHERENT等光学器件公司构成压力。</p><p>摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔指出，市场对共封装光学技术的期待可能“超前于下游产业链的准备情况”。英伟达双线并进的策略，意味着铜互连技术在未来一段时间内仍将扮演重要角色，这可能影响了投资者对COHERENT等公司短期增长前景的看法。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COHR":"Coherent"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127585708","content_text":"光学器件公司COHERENT(COHR)今日盘中股价大跌5.55%，引起了市场的关注。消息面上，英伟达(NVDA)CEO黄仁勋在GTC演讲中重申，其即将推出的Vera Rubin Ultra和Feynman产品线将同时采用铜技术和共封装光学技术，两种方案将并行推进。这一表态被市场解读为对光学互连技术需求的预期有所调整，对COHERENT等光学器件公司构成压力。摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔指出，市场对共封装光学技术的期待可能“超前于下游产业链的准备情况”。英伟达双线并进的策略，意味着铜互连技术在未来一段时间内仍将扮演重要角色，这可能影响了投资者对COHERENT等公司短期增长前景的看法。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COHR":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}