lingching的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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07-26

星展银行的本港业务应该不错，近来见他们都很进取

07-24

$维立志博-B(09887)$ 赚了赚了

07-24

特斯拉又暴雷了，业绩前景2真的不理想

07-11

今年回报令我成功体验投资真谛「买股票为回本，返工为补仓」以后都系买指数基金为主吧 @沉稳

07-11

今年ytd只有3％, 我充分了解到买股票为回本，返工为补仓以后都系买指数基金好

07-11

美伟达更适合长持，5万亿在望

07-10

美债过去几年一直都是最失败的投资，现在美股在创新高，不要花时间在美债上面了

07-09

特朗普的政策就是一个笑话，他自己都不知道自己在干什么

07-08

关税已经有充份预期，而且市场对关税的反应也会变得冷淡

07-04

7月减息又无望了，都是trump在乱搞

07-02

很讨压马斯克深入政治，对投资者绝对不利好

07-01

关税现在看来只是恐吓谈判的方法，而不是目标

06-27

薪高应该是乘势调入，对冲只会降低收益

06-20

港股近来走势的确有点失望

06-19

油价的走势跟需求关系影响更大

06-19

稳定股吸引力我觉得有限

06-18

苹果近来的表现真的分普通

06-12

intel的前景不佳啊，虽然股价低但不宜长持了

06-11

circle的表现的确亮眼，但价格太高了不如买coinbase

06-05

想不列corewave的后劲会那么厉害

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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不如买coinbase","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/444747489346216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442674319667616,"gmtCreate":1749091152924,"gmtModify":1749091157196,"author":{"id":"4142489888848002","authorId":"4142489888848002","name":"lingching","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142489888848002","idStr":"4142489888848002"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"想不列corewave的后劲会那么厉害","listText":"想不列corewave的后劲会那么厉害","text":"想不列corewave的后劲会那么厉害","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442674319667616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":397336693379536,"gmtCreate":1738031448273,"gmtModify":1738036294034,"author":{"id":"4142489888848002","authorId":"4142489888848002","name":"lingching","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142489888848002","idStr":"4142489888848002"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么DeepSeek的崛起反而强化英伟达的护城河？","htmlText":"<a 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从长期视角来看，DeepSeek推动的AI应用普及化将巩固英伟达的「卖铲人」地位，其护城河反而因生态扩张而加深，核心逻辑有三： 一、算力需求从“扩张”转向“渗透” DeepSeek透过演算法优化降低AI开发门槛，但开源策略刺激的模式迭代潮（如金融、医疗场景落地）将催生更复杂的推理需求。 IDC预测全球AI算力需求年增速仍达60%-70%，台积电CoWoS产能扩张（2024年底40万片/年）直接转化为英伟达晶片增量收入。 技术降本≠算力过剩，应用场景爆发将持续消耗算力「燃料」。 二、生态障碍远胜硬体参数 英伟达CUDA生态覆盖90%开发者形成技术“普通话”，Mellanox互联技术构筑集群协同优势。 即便企业使用次先进晶片完成基础训练，追求极致性能仍需H100/H200支撑（如OpenAI单次推理成本仍需数千美元）。 其75%毛利率支撑的研发投入，使Blackwell架构持续拉开与AMD差距，形成「硬体-软体-生态」闭环护城河。 三、地缘赛局中的确定性标的 美国对华晶片管制催生黑市溢价需求，全球AI军备竞赛（Meta、微软年增50%算力投资）仍仰赖英伟达集群。 中国技术突围与美国巨头扩张形成「双向押注」格局，英伟达成为唯一能同时承接东西方需求的中立基础设施商。结 论：回呼即机遇 目前估值（PEG 1.2x）未反映AI产业化红利，DCF模型对应股价中枢1,400-1,600美元。 建议关注Q3资料中心增速，掌握生态型巨头从「","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 从「卖铲人」逻辑分析：为什么DeepSeek的崛起反而强化英伟达的护城河？ 英伟达（NVDA）因中国AI公司DeepSeek的技术突破引发股价大幅下跌，但市场担忧实为短视。 从长期视角来看，DeepSeek推动的AI应用普及化将巩固英伟达的「卖铲人」地位，其护城河反而因生态扩张而加深，核心逻辑有三： 一、算力需求从“扩张”转向“渗透” DeepSeek透过演算法优化降低AI开发门槛，但开源策略刺激的模式迭代潮（如金融、医疗场景落地）将催生更复杂的推理需求。 IDC预测全球AI算力需求年增速仍达60%-70%，台积电CoWoS产能扩张（2024年底40万片/年）直接转化为英伟达晶片增量收入。 技术降本≠算力过剩，应用场景爆发将持续消耗算力「燃料」。 二、生态障碍远胜硬体参数 英伟达CUDA生态覆盖90%开发者形成技术“普通话”，Mellanox互联技术构筑集群协同优势。 即便企业使用次先进晶片完成基础训练，追求极致性能仍需H100/H200支撑（如OpenAI单次推理成本仍需数千美元）。 其75%毛利率支撑的研发投入，使Blackwell架构持续拉开与AMD差距，形成「硬体-软体-生态」闭环护城河。 三、地缘赛局中的确定性标的 美国对华晶片管制催生黑市溢价需求，全球AI军备竞赛（Meta、微软年增50%算力投资）仍仰赖英伟达集群。 中国技术突围与美国巨头扩张形成「双向押注」格局，英伟达成为唯一能同时承接东西方需求的中立基础设施商。结 论：回呼即机遇 目前估值（PEG 1.2x）未反映AI产业化红利，DCF模型对应股价中枢1,400-1,600美元。 建议关注Q3资料中心增速，掌握生态型巨头从「","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397336693379536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4199235160501260","authorId":"4199235160501260","name":"Lensx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c90fe669bea56fe3cdd482bad56c3d6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4199235160501260","idStr":"4199235160501260"},"content":"一 deepseek 通过算法优化，降低了 ai 需要的成本与时间，但这从AI普及来说，这大大利好，因为他大大压缩了成本与时间尽管， deepseek这只黑天鹅的出现，大大冲击了美股科技股，但这不代表着彻底抛弃了英伟达，训练AI还是要用英伟达的显卡，还是要用英伟达的生态， 二 他的生态圈和壁垒还是处于行业领先，不会因为Deepseek 的出现而被贬低，英伟达 CODA 在很多年前就开始训练和部署，可以说这完全用时间成本堆出来的，而不是你随便砸钱就能超越的，英伟达已经深耕 gpu 行业多年，再加上独有的并行计算，和 Blackwell架构，这些构成了英伟达不可轻易撼动的行业壁垒及护城河生态，想要训练最顶级的AI 还是离不开英伟达，虽然 deepseek 在一些垂直领域，让人眼前一亮，但他仍不具备顶级AI的实力，他的思考比 Chat GPT慢很多，它无法识别图片，生成图片，视频实时交互，这都是需要算力的大头。 三 随着特朗普发起 AI 的竞争比如 星际之门投资策略，通过对中国出口阉割最新英伟达 5090 芯片，来卡中国的脖子，限制新显卡的算力，限制并行计算的能力，这都毫无疑问证明了英伟达在这场AI竞争中扮演的重要角色。 结论 虽然英伟达在 deepseek 这只黑天鹅的冲击下股票大跌，但这影响不了英伟达的基本盘和行业霸主地位。","text":"一 deepseek 通过算法优化，降低了 ai 需要的成本与时间，但这从AI普及来说，这大大利好，因为他大大压缩了成本与时间尽管， deepseek这只黑天鹅的出现，大大冲击了美股科技股，但这不代表着彻底抛弃了英伟达，训练AI还是要用英伟达的显卡，还是要用英伟达的生态， 二 他的生态圈和壁垒还是处于行业领先，不会因为Deepseek 的出现而被贬低，英伟达 CODA 在很多年前就开始训练和部署，可以说这完全用时间成本堆出来的，而不是你随便砸钱就能超越的，英伟达已经深耕 gpu 行业多年，再加上独有的并行计算，和 Blackwell架构，这些构成了英伟达不可轻易撼动的行业壁垒及护城河生态，想要训练最顶级的AI 还是离不开英伟达，虽然 deepseek 在一些垂直领域，让人眼前一亮，但他仍不具备顶级AI的实力，他的思考比 Chat GPT慢很多，它无法识别图片，生成图片，视频实时交互，这都是需要算力的大头。 三 随着特朗普发起 AI 的竞争比如 星际之门投资策略，通过对中国出口阉割最新英伟达 5090 芯片，来卡中国的脖子，限制新显卡的算力，限制并行计算的能力，这都毫无疑问证明了英伟达在这场AI竞争中扮演的重要角色。 结论 虽然英伟达在 deepseek 这只黑天鹅的冲击下股票大跌，但这影响不了英伟达的基本盘和行业霸主地位。","html":"一 deepseek 通过算法优化，降低了 ai 需要的成本与时间，但这从AI普及来说，这大大利好，因为他大大压缩了成本与时间尽管， deepseek这只黑天鹅的出现，大大冲击了美股科技股，但这不代表着彻底抛弃了英伟达，训练AI还是要用英伟达的显卡，还是要用英伟达的生态， 二 他的生态圈和壁垒还是处于行业领先，不会因为Deepseek 的出现而被贬低，英伟达 CODA 在很多年前就开始训练和部署，可以说这完全用时间成本堆出来的，而不是你随便砸钱就能超越的，英伟达已经深耕 gpu 行业多年，再加上独有的并行计算，和 Blackwell架构，这些构成了英伟达不可轻易撼动的行业壁垒及护城河生态，想要训练最顶级的AI 还是离不开英伟达，虽然 deepseek 在一些垂直领域，让人眼前一亮，但他仍不具备顶级AI的实力，他的思考比 Chat GPT慢很多，它无法识别图片，生成图片，视频实时交互，这都是需要算力的大头。 三 随着特朗普发起 AI 的竞争比如 星际之门投资策略，通过对中国出口阉割最新英伟达 5090 芯片，来卡中国的脖子，限制新显卡的算力，限制并行计算的能力，这都毫无疑问证明了英伟达在这场AI竞争中扮演的重要角色。 结论 虽然英伟达在 deepseek 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