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Arnold.Jin
09-15
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2024-11-08
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06-22
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10-12
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05-18
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Arnold.Jin
2025-06-30
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高盛首次覆盖Circle，直接砸盘：给出暴跌54%的看空信号！
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07-06
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快回去了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb3de3193ec4ae12e426ef0a3f8050b","width":"1006","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565536312950864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564040906614776,"gmtCreate":1778739690931,"gmtModify":1778739693089,"author":{"id":"4097891478270120","authorId":"4097891478270120","name":"Arnold.Jin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76ea1be6f7965bb9df5dfa71ef63ae92","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097891478270120","authorIdStr":"4097891478270120"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564040906614776","repostId":"564101877719384","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":564101877719384,"gmtCreate":1778731635517,"gmtModify":1778738153673,"author":{"id":"4240127339965010","authorId":"4240127339965010","name":"宏观姐夫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786901ed7d73568418b065fbd21e071d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4240127339965010","authorIdStr":"4240127339965010"},"themes":[],"title":"美国参议院以54票对45票批准沃什出任美联储主席，投资者要紧盯这5个时间点","htmlText":"5月13日，美国参议院以54票对45票确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月15日结束，全球市场也将正式进入“沃什时代”。 市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 如果沃什一上来就强调通胀风险、价格稳定和政策克制，市场会把他理解为偏鹰的新主席。2年期美债收益率和美元可能偏强，纳指等长久期资产会承受一些压力。","listText":"5月13日，美国参议院以54票对45票确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月15日结束，全球市场也将正式进入“沃什时代”。 市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 如果沃什一上来就强调通胀风险、价格稳定和政策克制，市场会把他理解为偏鹰的新主席。2年期美债收益率和美元可能偏强，纳指等长久期资产会承受一些压力。","text":"5月13日，美国参议院以54票对45票确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月15日结束，全球市场也将正式进入“沃什时代”。 市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 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昨天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a> 2w多刀买了20手 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20260508 355.0 CALL\">$AMD 20260508 355.0 CALL$ </a> 赚了10w多美金 还留10手 看看有没有股价到450的机会 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 拿着1万多股 回调就陆续补仓 目前还看涨 没有明显降温回踩信号 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> 还有点下探空间 135put的期权卖一点 拿盈利玩到行权日 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a> 看睡的早不早 睡得早就不做 做的话会实盘分享 amd后 现在也没有什么特别好的标的做期权 做也是几百一两千刀随便玩玩 不要盲目跟 好运常在","listText":"分享下现在的持仓情况[正经] 昨天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a> 2w多刀买了20手 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20260508 355.0 CALL\">$AMD 20260508 355.0 CALL$ </a> 赚了10w多美金 还留10手 看看有没有股价到450的机会 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 拿着1万多股 回调就陆续补仓 目前还看涨 没有明显降温回踩信号 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> 还有点下探空间 135put的期权卖一点 拿盈利玩到行权日 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a> 看睡的早不早 睡得早就不做 做的话会实盘分享 amd后 现在也没有什么特别好的标的做期权 做也是几百一两千刀随便玩玩 不要盲目跟 好运常在","text":"分享下现在的持仓情况[正经] 昨天$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 2w多刀买了20手 $AMD 20260508 355.0 CALL$ 赚了10w多美金 还留10手 看看有没有股价到450的机会 $英特尔(INTC)$ 拿着1万多股 回调就陆续补仓 目前还看涨 没有明显降温回踩信号 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 还有点下探空间 135put的期权卖一点 拿盈利玩到行权日 $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 看睡的早不早 睡得早就不做 做的话会实盘分享 amd后 现在也没有什么特别好的标的做期权 做也是几百一两千刀随便玩玩 不要盲目跟 好运常在","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b676fe2f65cc90bada0b1e5ebe87eb","width":"1179","height":"2556"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561539606017736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561330035418192,"gmtCreate":1778075167330,"gmtModify":1778075179677,"author":{"id":"4097891478270120","authorId":"4097891478270120","name":"Arnold.Jin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76ea1be6f7965bb9df5dfa71ef63ae92","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097891478270120","authorIdStr":"4097891478270120"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20270115 40.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20270115 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","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7fda4a21c3a09ace116cc38fafa6286","width":"1006","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/577860991044048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":617441826419360,"gmtCreate":1791761834327,"gmtModify":1791761837282,"author":{"id":"4097891478270120","authorId":"4097891478270120","name":"Arnold.Jin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76ea1be6f7965bb9df5dfa71ef63ae92","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097891478270120","authorIdStr":"4097891478270120"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> ","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de3e0fe201f75f6a5ca7c9eb3b5eb8c","width":"1006","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617441826419360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":565536312950864,"gmtCreate":1779104798824,"gmtModify":1779104810968,"author":{"id":"4097891478270120","authorId":"4097891478270120","name":"Arnold.Jin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76ea1be6f7965bb9df5dfa71ef63ae92","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097891478270120","authorIdStr":"4097891478270120"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 快回去了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 快回去了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 快回去了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcb3de3193ec4ae12e426ef0a3f8050b","width":"1006","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565536312950864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":451579878142456,"gmtCreate":1751275144808,"gmtModify":1751276575163,"author":{"id":"4097891478270120","authorId":"4097891478270120","name":"Arnold.Jin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76ea1be6f7965bb9df5dfa71ef63ae92","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097891478270120","authorIdStr":"4097891478270120"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a> ","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/451579878142456","repostId":"1185096111","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185096111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1751274027,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185096111?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-30 17:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛首次覆盖Circle，直接砸盘：给出暴跌54%的看空信号！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185096111","media":"口罩哥研报60秒","summary":"首次覆盖！一盆冷水！","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>首次覆盖！一盆冷水！</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcae9242c0bd50b53c044b4ea30b417\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"992\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年6月30日，高盛首次覆盖全球第二大稳定币发行商Circle Internet Group（CRCL），给予“中性”评级，目标价83美元，较当前180.43美元市价有54%的潜在下跌空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛指出，Circle旗下稳定币USDC预计2024-2027年间复合年均增长率（CAGR）高达40%，但股价估值已明显过高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛认为，CRCL是当前市场上唯一的纯加密原生上市公司，其最大卖点在于业务增长不直接受加密货币波动影响，具有极强的市场独特性。<u>“CRCL is a unique asset in the public markets, as the only pure play crypto-native company that has potential upside from expansion into very large existing fiat markets”（CRCL是公开市场中独一无二的资产，作为唯一纯加密原生公司，其有潜力从向庞大的现有法币市场扩张中获得上行空间）。</u></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e8ecaa0705bf4818a9e0e1ebce02bc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但报告同时警告，尽管USDC的市场占有率因全球稳定币监管趋严而持续上升，<u>但未来收益率可能受到美联储降息、替代品竞争（如有息代币化货币基金）及对合作平台的高额激励费用挤压，CRCL的利润率预计将从2024年的39%下降到2027年的34%左右。</u></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛明确强调，当前145倍的前瞻市盈率（NTM P/E）大幅超过同行平均的35倍，即使Circle的业绩增速远高于其他支付巨头和券商，也难以支撑目前估值。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1751274080750","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛首次覆盖Circle，直接砸盘：给出暴跌54%的看空信号！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛首次覆盖Circle，直接砸盘：给出暴跌54%的看空信号！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-30 17:00 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eH4MJw8V-sWyo6NleoFP8A><strong>口罩哥研报60秒</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>首次覆盖！一盆冷水！2025年6月30日，高盛首次覆盖全球第二大稳定币发行商Circle Internet Group（CRCL），给予“中性”评级，目标价83美元，较当前180.43美元市价有54%的潜在下跌空间。高盛指出，Circle旗下稳定币USDC预计2024-2027年间复合年均增长率（CAGR）高达40%，但股价估值已明显过高。高盛认为，CRCL是当前市场上唯一的纯加密原生上市公司，其...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eH4MJw8V-sWyo6NleoFP8A\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49b0fe58ba5359a9110f35b14f9829f5","relate_stocks":{"CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eH4MJw8V-sWyo6NleoFP8A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185096111","content_text":"首次覆盖！一盆冷水！2025年6月30日，高盛首次覆盖全球第二大稳定币发行商Circle Internet Group（CRCL），给予“中性”评级，目标价83美元，较当前180.43美元市价有54%的潜在下跌空间。高盛指出，Circle旗下稳定币USDC预计2024-2027年间复合年均增长率（CAGR）高达40%，但股价估值已明显过高。高盛认为，CRCL是当前市场上唯一的纯加密原生上市公司，其最大卖点在于业务增长不直接受加密货币波动影响，具有极强的市场独特性。“CRCL is a unique asset in the public markets, as the only pure play crypto-native company that has potential upside from expansion into very large existing fiat markets”（CRCL是公开市场中独一无二的资产，作为唯一纯加密原生公司，其有潜力从向庞大的现有法币市场扩张中获得上行空间）。但报告同时警告，尽管USDC的市场占有率因全球稳定币监管趋严而持续上升，但未来收益率可能受到美联储降息、替代品竞争（如有息代币化货币基金）及对合作平台的高额激励费用挤压，CRCL的利润率预计将从2024年的39%下降到2027年的34%左右。高盛明确强调，当前145倍的前瞻市盈率（NTM P/E）大幅超过同行平均的35倍，即使Circle的业绩增速远高于其他支付巨头和券商，也难以支撑目前估值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRCL":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":582741721309512,"gmtCreate":1783302357046,"gmtModify":1783302369365,"author":{"id":"4097891478270120","authorId":"4097891478270120","name":"Arnold.Jin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76ea1be6f7965bb9df5dfa71ef63ae92","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097891478270120","authorIdStr":"4097891478270120"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$ </a> 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