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Songern

Songern

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2021-06-07

Buy sell safely everyone

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2021-06-17

Buy buy!

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2021-06-04

To the moon !!!

Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-03

Oh wow. Amazing

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2021-06-03

Hold!!!

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2021-06-07

Wow

Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants<blockquote>戴姆勒中国合资企业计划将梅赛德斯-奔驰工厂产能提高45%</blockquote>

2021-06-04

Awesome

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2021-06-04

Awesome

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2021-06-03

HODL!!

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2021-05-21

Wow news

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13:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants<blockquote>戴姆勒中国合资企业计划将梅赛德斯-奔驰工厂产能提高45%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150140988","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shi","content":"<p>BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz cars by 45%, a document on the venture’s Chinese website showed.</p><p><blockquote>路透北京6月7日-戴姆勒股份公司(Daimler AG)与北京汽车的主要中国合资企业中国网站上的一份文件显示，该合资企业计划在北京的两家工厂增加班次和工作日，这将使梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车的名义产能提高45%。</blockquote></p><p>The projected upgrade at Beijing Benz Automotive Co (BBAC), 49%-owned by Stuttgart-based Daimler and the latter’s main business in China, was set out in a document posted on the BBAC website last month to seek public opinion on the expansion.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于斯图加特的戴姆勒持有北京奔驰汽车有限公司（BBAC）49%的股份，是后者在中国的主要业务，该公司上个月在BBAC网站上发布的一份文件中列出了预计的升级，以征求公众对此次扩张的意见。</blockquote></p><p>It comes as demand for BBAC’s luxury vehicles surges in the world’s biggest car market. China is Daimler’s biggest country business, with more cars sold there than in Germany and the United States combined.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，全球最大的汽车市场对BBAC豪华车的需求激增。中国是戴姆勒最大的国家业务，其汽车销量超过了德国和美国的总和。</blockquote></p><p>Last year BBAC sold a record 611,000 vehicles in the country, up 8% from 567,000 in 2019. The didn’t specify the base capacities of the factories, but the company has previously said combined capacity of the two plants was 520,000 vehicles a year.</p><p><blockquote>去年，BBAC在该国售出了创纪录的611,000辆汽车，比2019年的567,000辆增长了8%。该公司没有具体说明工厂的基本产能，但该公司此前曾表示，两家工厂的总产能为每年52万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p>According to the document, the joint venture will increase working days to 312 per year at both of its Beijing plants. Previously, one plant, known as the MRA factory, had 290 days of output per year while the other, the MFA factory, had 250 days.</p><p><blockquote>根据该文件，该合资企业将把其北京两家工厂的工作日增加到每年312个。此前，一家名为MRA工厂的工厂每年的产量为290天，而另一家名为MFA工厂的产量为250天。</blockquote></p><p>One of the plants will also add one 7.5-hour shift per working day, according to the document, which did not specify the investment related to the capacity increase at the two factories, which plan to make gasoline and electric-powered vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>文件称，其中一家工厂还将增加每个工作日7.5小时的轮班，但没有具体说明与这两家工厂产能增加相关的投资，这两家工厂计划生产汽油和电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p>BBAC, which declined to comment on the projected upgrade, also has a separate electric vehicle factory in Beijing with capacity of 150,000 cars per year.</p><p><blockquote>BBAC拒绝就预计的升级发表评论，该公司在北京还有一家独立的电动汽车工厂，年产能为15万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The venture is 51%-owned by BAIC Motor. The latter’s parent, BAIC Group, owns 5% of Daimler, which didn’t answer Reuters’ questions on the capacity upgrade project.</p><p><blockquote>该合资企业由北京汽车持有51%的股份。后者的母公司北汽集团拥有戴姆勒5%的股份，戴姆勒没有回答路透社关于产能升级项目的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from BBAC, next year Daimler will start making electric Smart cars with China’s Geely, which holds a 9.7% stake of Daimler, the companies said in 2019. It also has a truck venture with another BAIC Group unit, Beiqi Foton .</p><p><blockquote>两家公司在2019年表示，除了BBAC之外，戴姆勒明年还将开始与持有戴姆勒9.7%股份的中国吉利合作生产电动智能汽车。它还与北汽集团的另一家子公司北汽福田建立了卡车合资企业。</blockquote></p><p>Chinese policymakers expect 20% of overall new vehicle sales will be battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国政策制定者预计，到2025年，新车总销量的20%将是纯电动、插电式混合动力或氢燃料电池汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants<blockquote>戴姆勒中国合资企业计划将梅赛德斯-奔驰工厂产能提高45%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants<blockquote>戴姆勒中国合资企业计划将梅赛德斯-奔驰工厂产能提高45%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz cars by 45%, a document on the venture’s Chinese website showed.</p><p><blockquote>路透北京6月7日-戴姆勒股份公司(Daimler AG)与北京汽车的主要中国合资企业中国网站上的一份文件显示，该合资企业计划在北京的两家工厂增加班次和工作日，这将使梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车的名义产能提高45%。</blockquote></p><p>The projected upgrade at Beijing Benz Automotive Co (BBAC), 49%-owned by Stuttgart-based Daimler and the latter’s main business in China, was set out in a document posted on the BBAC website last month to seek public opinion on the expansion.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于斯图加特的戴姆勒持有北京奔驰汽车有限公司（BBAC）49%的股份，是后者在中国的主要业务，该公司上个月在BBAC网站上发布的一份文件中列出了预计的升级，以征求公众对此次扩张的意见。</blockquote></p><p>It comes as demand for BBAC’s luxury vehicles surges in the world’s biggest car market. China is Daimler’s biggest country business, with more cars sold there than in Germany and the United States combined.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，全球最大的汽车市场对BBAC豪华车的需求激增。中国是戴姆勒最大的国家业务，其汽车销量超过了德国和美国的总和。</blockquote></p><p>Last year BBAC sold a record 611,000 vehicles in the country, up 8% from 567,000 in 2019. The didn’t specify the base capacities of the factories, but the company has previously said combined capacity of the two plants was 520,000 vehicles a year.</p><p><blockquote>去年，BBAC在该国售出了创纪录的611,000辆汽车，比2019年的567,000辆增长了8%。该公司没有具体说明工厂的基本产能，但该公司此前曾表示，两家工厂的总产能为每年52万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p>According to the document, the joint venture will increase working days to 312 per year at both of its Beijing plants. Previously, one plant, known as the MRA factory, had 290 days of output per year while the other, the MFA factory, had 250 days.</p><p><blockquote>根据该文件，该合资企业将把其北京两家工厂的工作日增加到每年312个。此前，一家名为MRA工厂的工厂每年的产量为290天，而另一家名为MFA工厂的产量为250天。</blockquote></p><p>One of the plants will also add one 7.5-hour shift per working day, according to the document, which did not specify the investment related to the capacity increase at the two factories, which plan to make gasoline and electric-powered vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>文件称，其中一家工厂还将增加每个工作日7.5小时的轮班，但没有具体说明与这两家工厂产能增加相关的投资，这两家工厂计划生产汽油和电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p>BBAC, which declined to comment on the projected upgrade, also has a separate electric vehicle factory in Beijing with capacity of 150,000 cars per year.</p><p><blockquote>BBAC拒绝就预计的升级发表评论，该公司在北京还有一家独立的电动汽车工厂，年产能为15万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The venture is 51%-owned by BAIC Motor. The latter’s parent, BAIC Group, owns 5% of Daimler, which didn’t answer Reuters’ questions on the capacity upgrade project.</p><p><blockquote>该合资企业由北京汽车持有51%的股份。后者的母公司北汽集团拥有戴姆勒5%的股份，戴姆勒没有回答路透社关于产能升级项目的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from BBAC, next year Daimler will start making electric Smart cars with China’s Geely, which holds a 9.7% stake of Daimler, the companies said in 2019. It also has a truck venture with another BAIC Group unit, Beiqi Foton .</p><p><blockquote>两家公司在2019年表示，除了BBAC之外，戴姆勒明年还将开始与持有戴姆勒9.7%股份的中国吉利合作生产电动智能汽车。它还与北汽集团的另一家子公司北汽福田建立了卡车合资企业。</blockquote></p><p>Chinese policymakers expect 20% of overall new vehicle sales will be battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国政策制定者预计，到2025年，新车总销量的20%将是纯电动、插电式混合动力或氢燃料电池汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-china/daimlers-china-venture-aims-to-raise-capacity-45-at-mercedes-benz-plants-document-idUSL3N2NL1RI\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDAIF":"戴姆勒汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-china/daimlers-china-venture-aims-to-raise-capacity-45-at-mercedes-benz-plants-document-idUSL3N2NL1RI","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150140988","content_text":"BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz cars by 45%, a document on the venture’s Chinese website showed.The projected upgrade at Beijing Benz Automotive Co (BBAC), 49%-owned by Stuttgart-based Daimler and the latter’s main business in China, was set out in a document posted on the BBAC website last month to seek public opinion on the expansion.It comes as demand for BBAC’s luxury vehicles surges in the world’s biggest car market. China is Daimler’s biggest country business, with more cars sold there than in Germany and the United States combined.Last year BBAC sold a record 611,000 vehicles in the country, up 8% from 567,000 in 2019. The didn’t specify the base capacities of the factories, but the company has previously said combined capacity of the two plants was 520,000 vehicles a year.According to the document, the joint venture will increase working days to 312 per year at both of its Beijing plants. Previously, one plant, known as the MRA factory, had 290 days of output per year while the other, the MFA factory, had 250 days.One of the plants will also add one 7.5-hour shift per working day, according to the document, which did not specify the investment related to the capacity increase at the two factories, which plan to make gasoline and electric-powered vehicles.BBAC, which declined to comment on the projected upgrade, also has a separate electric vehicle factory in Beijing with capacity of 150,000 cars per year.The venture is 51%-owned by BAIC Motor. The latter’s parent, BAIC Group, owns 5% of Daimler, which didn’t answer Reuters’ questions on the capacity upgrade project.Aside from BBAC, next year Daimler will start making electric Smart cars with China’s Geely, which holds a 9.7% stake of Daimler, the companies said in 2019. It also has a truck venture with another BAIC Group unit, Beiqi Foton .Chinese policymakers expect 20% of overall new vehicle sales will be battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDAIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116409935,"gmtCreate":1622814201327,"gmtModify":1634097749733,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116409935","repostId":"1122646159","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122646159","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622811802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122646159?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 21:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.<blockquote>油价上涨能否提振电动汽车销量？也许。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122646159","media":"Barrons","summary":"Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil","content":"<p>Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>油价上涨——回到电动汽车刚刚问世、投资者从未见过三位数的油价——曾经对电动汽车销售和电动汽车制造商的股价都是利好。</blockquote></p><p> That line of thinking fell out of favor as the EV industry matured. Consider Tesla (TSLA): the EV maker’s stock fell almost 12% in May, the same month the Colonial Pipeline was hacked, disrupting gasoline supplies, and oil prices rose more than 4%.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车行业的成熟，这种想法不再受欢迎。以特斯拉(TSLA)为例：这家电动汽车制造商的股价在5月份下跌了近12%，同月Colonial管道遭到黑客攻击，汽油供应中断，油价上涨了4%以上。</blockquote></p><p> However, as oil prices climb&nbsp;higher this year and continue to do so—oil prices are up another 3.7% in June—one Wall Street analyst is dusting off the old EV-oil trading playbook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着今年油价攀升并继续攀升——6月份油价又上涨了3.7%——一位华尔街分析师正在重新审视旧的电动汽车石油交易策略。</blockquote></p><p> Why oil prices helped EV stocks isn’t hard to grasp. EVs are more expensive to purchase up-front than gasoline-powered automobiles. Rechargeable lithium ion batteries are far more expensive than gas tanks.&nbsp;However,&nbsp;it costs less to charge the batteries than to fill a gas tank<b>.</b>&nbsp;And higher oil prices mean higher gasoline prices, which could drive consumers into EVs.</p><p><blockquote>为什么油价帮助电动汽车股票并不难理解。电动汽车的前期购买成本比汽油动力汽车更高。可充电锂离子电池远比煤气罐贵。然而，给电池充电比给煤气罐加满油花费更少<b>.</b>油价上涨意味着汽油价格上涨，这可能会促使消费者转向电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Higher oil prices helped boost Toyota Prius sales, which went from averaging roughly 140,000 a year in 2009 and 2010 to 240,000 between 2011 and 2013. Back then, oil prices averaged roughly $70 a barrel from 2009 to 2010, when Prius sales were averaging the lower number. Oil averaged roughly $95 a barrel from 2011 to 2013—the same time Prius sales increased.</p><p><blockquote>油价上涨帮助提振了丰田普锐斯的销量，从2009年和2010年的平均每年约14万辆增加到2011年至2013年的24万辆。当时，2009年至2010年油价平均约为每桶70美元，当时普锐斯的平均销量较低。2011年至2013年，油价平均约为每桶95美元，与此同时普锐斯的销量也有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one example, but the oil price/EV sale trade has broken down in recent years. Don’t forget, oil prices dropped in 2020 while Tesla sales hit a record of about 500,00 units.</p><p><blockquote>这只是一个例子，但近年来油价/电动汽车销售贸易已经崩溃。别忘了，2020年油价下跌，而特斯拉销量创下约50万辆的纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;Adam Jonas&nbsp;thinks a linkage between oil and EVs may reappear. He pointed out in a Wednesday report that higher oil prices make EVs relatively more attractive. That much is obvious, but he also thinks prices won’t lead governments to relax drilling restrictions or invest in refining capacity to drive down oil prices. Instead, Jonas believes, higher oil prices will accelerate government support for EVs. That’s important, but the biggest boost to the EV sector will come when EVs cost the same as gasoline-powered cars—something Jonas says could happen as soon as “mid-decade.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯认为石油和电动汽车之间的联系可能会再次出现。他在周三的一份报告中指出，油价上涨使电动汽车相对更具吸引力。这是显而易见的，但他也认为价格不会导致政府放松钻探限制或投资炼油能力来压低油价。相反，乔纳斯认为，油价上涨将加速政府对电动汽车的支持。这很重要，但当电动汽车的成本与汽油动力汽车相同时，电动汽车行业将获得最大的推动——乔纳斯表示，这最早可能在“十年中期”发生。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas’ preferred stocks to play the EV trend are&nbsp;General Motors (GM),Aptiv(APTV) and Tesla, all of which he rates Buy. Jonas also calls EV startup&nbsp;Fisker(FSR) his sleeper EV pick. And battery startup&nbsp;QuantumScape(QS) his “battery biotech” pick.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯在电动汽车趋势中的首选股票是通用汽车(GM)、安波福(APTV)和特斯拉，他对所有这些股票都给予了买入评级。Jonas还选择了评级电动汽车初创公司Fisker(FSR)的卧铺电动汽车。电池初创公司QuantumScape(QS)是他的“电池生物技术”选择。</blockquote></p><p> Biotech stocks tend to have binary outcomes. They have big upside if drugs work and big downside is they don’t. That is how he thinks about Quantum: It is pioneering new battery technology that promises higher performance and lower costs. If it works, investors will be rewarded, but the company is years away from commercialization. Both Fisker and QuantumScape are Buy-rated, as well.</p><p><blockquote>生物科技股往往有二元结果。如果药物起作用，它们有很大的好处，而不起作用也有很大的坏处。这就是他对Quantum的看法：它正在开拓新的电池技术，有望实现更高的性能和更低的成本。如果成功，投资者将获得回报，但该公司距离商业化还需要数年时间。Fisker和QuantumScape也被给予买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> His quintet of stocks has had a mixed year. General Motors and Aptiv have outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The EV pure-play stocks—Tesla, Fisker and QuantumScape—have all lagged the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>他的五只股票经历了喜忧参半的一年。通用汽车和安波福的表现优于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数。纯电动汽车股票——特斯拉、菲斯克和QuantumScape——均落后于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> GM and Aptiv stocks are up 52% and 20% year to date, respectively. Fisker stock has risen about 9%. Meanwhile, Tesla and QuantumScape shares are down 19% and 66%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车和Aptiv的股价今年迄今分别上涨了52%和20%。菲斯克股价上涨约9%。与此同时，特斯拉和QuantumScape的股价分别下跌19%和66%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.<blockquote>油价上涨能否提振电动汽车销量？也许。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.<blockquote>油价上涨能否提振电动汽车销量？也许。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 21:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>油价上涨——回到电动汽车刚刚问世、投资者从未见过三位数的油价——曾经对电动汽车销售和电动汽车制造商的股价都是利好。</blockquote></p><p> That line of thinking fell out of favor as the EV industry matured. Consider Tesla (TSLA): the EV maker’s stock fell almost 12% in May, the same month the Colonial Pipeline was hacked, disrupting gasoline supplies, and oil prices rose more than 4%.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车行业的成熟，这种想法不再受欢迎。以特斯拉(TSLA)为例：这家电动汽车制造商的股价在5月份下跌了近12%，同月Colonial管道遭到黑客攻击，汽油供应中断，油价上涨了4%以上。</blockquote></p><p> However, as oil prices climb&nbsp;higher this year and continue to do so—oil prices are up another 3.7% in June—one Wall Street analyst is dusting off the old EV-oil trading playbook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着今年油价攀升并继续攀升——6月份油价又上涨了3.7%——一位华尔街分析师正在重新审视旧的电动汽车石油交易策略。</blockquote></p><p> Why oil prices helped EV stocks isn’t hard to grasp. EVs are more expensive to purchase up-front than gasoline-powered automobiles. Rechargeable lithium ion batteries are far more expensive than gas tanks.&nbsp;However,&nbsp;it costs less to charge the batteries than to fill a gas tank<b>.</b>&nbsp;And higher oil prices mean higher gasoline prices, which could drive consumers into EVs.</p><p><blockquote>为什么油价帮助电动汽车股票并不难理解。电动汽车的前期购买成本比汽油动力汽车更高。可充电锂离子电池远比煤气罐贵。然而，给电池充电比给煤气罐加满油花费更少<b>.</b>油价上涨意味着汽油价格上涨，这可能会促使消费者转向电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Higher oil prices helped boost Toyota Prius sales, which went from averaging roughly 140,000 a year in 2009 and 2010 to 240,000 between 2011 and 2013. Back then, oil prices averaged roughly $70 a barrel from 2009 to 2010, when Prius sales were averaging the lower number. Oil averaged roughly $95 a barrel from 2011 to 2013—the same time Prius sales increased.</p><p><blockquote>油价上涨帮助提振了丰田普锐斯的销量，从2009年和2010年的平均每年约14万辆增加到2011年至2013年的24万辆。当时，2009年至2010年油价平均约为每桶70美元，当时普锐斯的平均销量较低。2011年至2013年，油价平均约为每桶95美元，与此同时普锐斯的销量也有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> That’s one example, but the oil price/EV sale trade has broken down in recent years. Don’t forget, oil prices dropped in 2020 while Tesla sales hit a record of about 500,00 units.</p><p><blockquote>这只是一个例子，但近年来油价/电动汽车销售贸易已经崩溃。别忘了，2020年油价下跌，而特斯拉销量创下约50万辆的纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;Adam Jonas&nbsp;thinks a linkage between oil and EVs may reappear. He pointed out in a Wednesday report that higher oil prices make EVs relatively more attractive. That much is obvious, but he also thinks prices won’t lead governments to relax drilling restrictions or invest in refining capacity to drive down oil prices. Instead, Jonas believes, higher oil prices will accelerate government support for EVs. That’s important, but the biggest boost to the EV sector will come when EVs cost the same as gasoline-powered cars—something Jonas says could happen as soon as “mid-decade.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯认为石油和电动汽车之间的联系可能会再次出现。他在周三的一份报告中指出，油价上涨使电动汽车相对更具吸引力。这是显而易见的，但他也认为价格不会导致政府放松钻探限制或投资炼油能力来压低油价。相反，乔纳斯认为，油价上涨将加速政府对电动汽车的支持。这很重要，但当电动汽车的成本与汽油动力汽车相同时，电动汽车行业将获得最大的推动——乔纳斯表示，这最早可能在“十年中期”发生。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas’ preferred stocks to play the EV trend are&nbsp;General Motors (GM),Aptiv(APTV) and Tesla, all of which he rates Buy. Jonas also calls EV startup&nbsp;Fisker(FSR) his sleeper EV pick. And battery startup&nbsp;QuantumScape(QS) his “battery biotech” pick.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯在电动汽车趋势中的首选股票是通用汽车(GM)、安波福(APTV)和特斯拉，他对所有这些股票都给予了买入评级。Jonas还选择了评级电动汽车初创公司Fisker(FSR)的卧铺电动汽车。电池初创公司QuantumScape(QS)是他的“电池生物技术”选择。</blockquote></p><p> Biotech stocks tend to have binary outcomes. They have big upside if drugs work and big downside is they don’t. That is how he thinks about Quantum: It is pioneering new battery technology that promises higher performance and lower costs. If it works, investors will be rewarded, but the company is years away from commercialization. Both Fisker and QuantumScape are Buy-rated, as well.</p><p><blockquote>生物科技股往往有二元结果。如果药物起作用，它们有很大的好处，而不起作用也有很大的坏处。这就是他对Quantum的看法：它正在开拓新的电池技术，有望实现更高的性能和更低的成本。如果成功，投资者将获得回报，但该公司距离商业化还需要数年时间。Fisker和QuantumScape也被给予买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> His quintet of stocks has had a mixed year. General Motors and Aptiv have outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The EV pure-play stocks—Tesla, Fisker and QuantumScape—have all lagged the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>他的五只股票经历了喜忧参半的一年。通用汽车和安波福的表现优于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数。纯电动汽车股票——特斯拉、菲斯克和QuantumScape——均落后于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> GM and Aptiv stocks are up 52% and 20% year to date, respectively. Fisker stock has risen about 9%. Meanwhile, Tesla and QuantumScape shares are down 19% and 66%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车和Aptiv的股价今年迄今分别上涨了52%和20%。菲斯克股价上涨约9%。与此同时，特斯拉和QuantumScape的股价分别下跌19%和66%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/can-higher-oil-prices-boost-ev-sales-maybe-51622809621?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","APTV":"Aptiv PLC","GM":"通用汽车","QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/can-higher-oil-prices-boost-ev-sales-maybe-51622809621?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122646159","content_text":"Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.\nThat line of thinking fell out of favor as the EV industry matured. Consider Tesla (TSLA): the EV maker’s stock fell almost 12% in May, the same month the Colonial Pipeline was hacked, disrupting gasoline supplies, and oil prices rose more than 4%.\nHowever, as oil prices climb higher this year and continue to do so—oil prices are up another 3.7% in June—one Wall Street analyst is dusting off the old EV-oil trading playbook.\nWhy oil prices helped EV stocks isn’t hard to grasp. EVs are more expensive to purchase up-front than gasoline-powered automobiles. Rechargeable lithium ion batteries are far more expensive than gas tanks. However, it costs less to charge the batteries than to fill a gas tank. And higher oil prices mean higher gasoline prices, which could drive consumers into EVs.\nHigher oil prices helped boost Toyota Prius sales, which went from averaging roughly 140,000 a year in 2009 and 2010 to 240,000 between 2011 and 2013. Back then, oil prices averaged roughly $70 a barrel from 2009 to 2010, when Prius sales were averaging the lower number. Oil averaged roughly $95 a barrel from 2011 to 2013—the same time Prius sales increased.\nThat’s one example, but the oil price/EV sale trade has broken down in recent years. Don’t forget, oil prices dropped in 2020 while Tesla sales hit a record of about 500,00 units.\nMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas thinks a linkage between oil and EVs may reappear. He pointed out in a Wednesday report that higher oil prices make EVs relatively more attractive. That much is obvious, but he also thinks prices won’t lead governments to relax drilling restrictions or invest in refining capacity to drive down oil prices. Instead, Jonas believes, higher oil prices will accelerate government support for EVs. That’s important, but the biggest boost to the EV sector will come when EVs cost the same as gasoline-powered cars—something Jonas says could happen as soon as “mid-decade.”\nJonas’ preferred stocks to play the EV trend are General Motors (GM),Aptiv(APTV) and Tesla, all of which he rates Buy. Jonas also calls EV startup Fisker(FSR) his sleeper EV pick. And battery startup QuantumScape(QS) his “battery biotech” pick.\nBiotech stocks tend to have binary outcomes. They have big upside if drugs work and big downside is they don’t. That is how he thinks about Quantum: It is pioneering new battery technology that promises higher performance and lower costs. If it works, investors will be rewarded, but the company is years away from commercialization. Both Fisker and QuantumScape are Buy-rated, as well.\nHis quintet of stocks has had a mixed year. General Motors and Aptiv have outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.The EV pure-play stocks—Tesla, Fisker and QuantumScape—have all lagged the broader market.\nGM and Aptiv stocks are up 52% and 20% year to date, respectively. Fisker stock has risen about 9%. Meanwhile, Tesla and QuantumScape shares are down 19% and 66%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"APTV":0.9,"QS":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116400175,"gmtCreate":1622814188297,"gmtModify":1634097750397,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116400175","repostId":"1122646159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116577906,"gmtCreate":1622814161105,"gmtModify":1634097751422,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To&nbsp;the moon !!!","listText":"To&nbsp;the moon !!!","text":"To the moon !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116577906","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118226688,"gmtCreate":1622734539244,"gmtModify":1634098553960,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh wow. Amazing","listText":"Oh wow. Amazing","text":"Oh wow. Amazing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118226688","repostId":"1160289276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118228664,"gmtCreate":1622734476258,"gmtModify":1634098554656,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold!!!","listText":"Hold!!!","text":"Hold!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118228664","repostId":"2140422463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118221483,"gmtCreate":1622734394742,"gmtModify":1634098555251,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"HODL!!","listText":"HODL!!","text":"HODL!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118221483","repostId":"1160289276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132480660,"gmtCreate":1622106697150,"gmtModify":1631884326372,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no. Hope things will turn better","listText":"Oh no. Hope things will turn better","text":"Oh no. Hope things will turn better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132480660","repostId":"1169151456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139189752,"gmtCreate":1621600438776,"gmtModify":1634187756799,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139189752","repostId":"1148771058","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139189802,"gmtCreate":1621600423406,"gmtModify":1634187757240,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon!!","listText":"To the moon!!","text":"To the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139189802","repostId":"2137906351","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139180484,"gmtCreate":1621600395648,"gmtModify":1634187757829,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple ! 🦾🦾","listText":"Apple ! 🦾🦾","text":"Apple ! 🦾🦾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139180484","repostId":"2137290933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139117747,"gmtCreate":1621600362289,"gmtModify":1634187758293,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow news","listText":"Wow news","text":"Wow news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139117747","repostId":"2137590928","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139117140,"gmtCreate":1621600349380,"gmtModify":1634187758653,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139117140","repostId":"1188151760","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188151760","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621599623,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188151760?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 20:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188151760","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. Futures, Stocks Rise at End of Volatile Week\n\n\nBitcoin hovered around $40,000, pausing its atte","content":"<p><ul>  <li>U.S. Futures, Stocks Rise at End of Volatile Week</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin hovered around $40,000, pausing its attempt to recover from this week’s massive plunge</li> </ul> U.S. futures rose with stocks on Friday as investor optimism got a boost from strong economic readings and earnings reports. Oil climbed.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国期货和股市在动荡的一周结束时上涨</li></ul><ul><li>比特币徘徊在40,000美元附近，暂停了从本周大幅暴跌中复苏的尝试</li></ul>由于强劲的经济数据和收益报告提振了投资者的乐观情绪，美国期货周五随股市上涨。石油攀升。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 152 points, or 0.45%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 17 points, or 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 52 points, or 0.39%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-minis上涨152点，涨幅0.45%，标普500 e-minis上涨17点，涨幅0.41%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨52点，涨幅0.39%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1204a4bbb3405be233ca57a6b40e26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin hovered around $40,000, pausing its attempt to recover from this week’s massive plunge. Cryptocurrency-related stocks Coinbase Global, Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings firmed 1.9% and 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>比特币徘徊在40,000美元左右，暂停了从本周大幅暴跌中复苏的尝试。加密货币相关股票Coinbase Global、Riot Blockchain和Marathon Digital Holdings分别上涨1.9%和2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Data firm IHS Markit’s U.S. manufacturing and service sector PMIs is set to be released before the opening bell and comes on the heels of surveys in the euro zone indicating the fastest pace of business growth in over three years in May.</p><p><blockquote>数据公司IHS Markit的美国制造业和服务业PMI将于开盘前发布，此前欧元区调查显示5月份商业增长速度为三年多来最快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla</b><b>&nbsp;(TSLA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Tesla stock rose nearly 2% in premarket trading.Elon Musk said on Friday that Tesla was close to establishing a presence in Russia and was looking at whether it could open factories there.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉</b><b>（特斯拉）</b>-特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近2%。Elon Musk周五表示，特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务，并正在考虑是否可以在俄罗斯开设工厂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic</b>&nbsp;<b>(SPCE)</b>&nbsp;– Virgin Galactic shares surged another&nbsp;4% in the premarket after the space travel company said&nbsp;the next test flight&nbsp;of its SpaceShipTwo Unity will occur on May 22. Virgin Galactic said a maintenance review on VMS Eve – the mothership which will carry SpaceShipTwo Unity to altitude – had been completed.</p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河</b> <b>(SPCE)</b>–太空旅行公司维珍银河表示其SpaceShipTwo Unity的下一次试飞将于5月22日进行，该公司股价在盘前又飙升4%。维珍银河表示，对VMS Eve的维护审查已经完成，VMS Eve是将太空船二号Unity运送到高空的母舰。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oatly&nbsp;(OTLY) </b>– Oatly soared 7.3% in premarket trading following the oat milk maker’s debut Wall Street session. Oatly’s IPO was priced at $17 per share, with the first trade at $22.12 and a closing Thursday price of $20.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>燕麦(OTLY)</b>-燕麦牛奶制造商在华尔街首次亮相后，Oatly在盘前交易中飙升7.3%。Oatly的IPO定价为每股17美元，首次交易价格为22.12美元，周四收盘价为20.20美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moderna&nbsp;</b><b>(MRNA)</b> – Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was officially approved by regulators in Japan and South Korea. Japan also gave approval to the Covid-19 vaccine produced by&nbsp;AstraZeneca&nbsp;(AZN) and Oxford University. Moderna was up 1.5% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>现代</b><b>（MRNA）</b>——莫德纳新冠疫苗正式获得日本和韩国监管机构批准。日本还批准了阿斯利康（AZN）和牛津大学生产的Covid-19疫苗。Moderna盘前上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Carnival&nbsp;(CCL) </b>– Carnival said its flagship brand — as well as its Holland America line — would resume Alaska cruises in July. Princess Cruises made a similar announcement, after the passage of new legislation by the House and Senate. The legislation temporarily waives the rule that required Alaska cruises to make a stop in Canada. Carnival shares gained 1.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>嘉年华(CCL)</b>-嘉年华表示，其旗舰品牌及其荷美航线将于7月恢复阿拉斯加游轮。在众议院和参议院通过新立法后，公主邮轮公司也发表了类似的声明。该立法暂时放弃了要求阿拉斯加游轮在加拿大停留的规定。嘉年华股价在盘前交易中上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Foot Locker&nbsp;(FL) </b>– Foot Locker shares rallied 3.8% in the premarket after the footwear and apparel retailer reported quarterly profit of $1.96 per share. That was well above the $1.09 a share consensus estimate, with revenue also topping forecasts and comparable-store sales surging a better than expected 80.3%.</p><p><blockquote><b>Foot Locker(FL)</b>-鞋类和服装零售商Foot Locker公布季度利润为每股1.96美元后，该公司股价盘前上涨3.8%。这远高于每股1.09美元的普遍预期，收入也超出预期，同店销售额飙升80.3%，好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>VF Corp&nbsp;(VFC)</b> – The company behind apparel brands like North Face, Timberland and Vans posted a mixed quarter, beating top line estimates but reporting lower-than-expected per-share profit. VF said the majority of its supply chain is operational, although it has seen isolated product delays. VF shares tumbled 6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>VF公司(VFC)</b>–North Face、Timberland和Vans等服装品牌背后的公司公布的季度业绩好坏参半，超出了营收预期，但每股利润低于预期。VF表示，尽管出现了孤立的产品延误，但其大部分供应链均已正常运行。VF股价盘前下跌6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buckle&nbsp;(BKE)</b> – The accessories retailer’s shares jumped 7.9% in the premarket after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. The Buckle earned $1.16 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of 43 cents a share, helped by the reopening of its stores.</p><p><blockquote><b>带扣(BKE)</b>-这家配件零售商公布最新季度利润和收入好于预期后，其股价在盘前上涨7.9%。得益于商店的重新开业，Buckle每股收益为1.16美元，而市场普遍预期为每股43美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palo Alto Networks&nbsp;(PANW) </b>– Palo Alto reported quarterly earnings of $1.38 per share, beating estimates by 10 cents a share. The cybersecurity company’s revenue also came in above Wall Street projections. Palo Alto raised its full-year forecast amid an increase in remote working security issues and challenges. Palo Alto shares surged 5.7% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>帕洛阿尔托网络(PANW)</b>-帕洛阿尔托报告季度收益为每股1.38美元，超出预期10美分。这家网络安全公司的收入也高于华尔街的预测。由于远程工作安全问题和挑战增加，帕洛阿尔托上调了全年预测。帕洛阿尔托股价在盘前上涨5.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deere&nbsp;(DE)</b> – Deere rose 1.1% in premarket trading after beating estimates on the top and bottom line and raising its full-year forecast. Deere earned $5.68 per share for its fiscal second quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $4.52 a share. Revenue also beat estimates as a rebounding global economy boosts demand for farm and construction equipment.</p><p><blockquote><b>Deere（DE）</b>-Deere在营收和利润超出预期并上调全年预期后，在盘前交易中上涨1.1%。Deere第二财季每股收益5.68美元，而市场普遍预期为每股4.52美元。由于全球经济反弹提振了对农业和建筑设备的需求，收入也超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deckers Outdoor&nbsp;(DECK) </b>– Deckers earned $1.18 per share for its fiscal fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 64 cents a share. The footwear and apparel maker — which counts UGG and Teva among its brand names — also reported better-than-expected revenue, but issued a mixed outlook. Deckers rallied 6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>户外甲板（甲板）</b>-Deckers第四财季每股收益1.18美元，远高于每股64美分的普遍预期。这家鞋类和服装制造商（旗下品牌包括UGG和Teva）也公布了好于预期的收入，但前景好坏参半。Deckers盘前上涨6%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Ross Stores&nbsp;(ROST) </b>– Ross Stores reported first-quarter earnings of $1.34 per share, compared to an 88 cents a share consensus estimate. The discount retailer’s revenue came in well above forecasts. Results got a boost from stimulus payments to consumers and an overall improvement in the economic environment. Ross also announced a new $1.5 billion stock buyback program, and the stock added 1.4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>罗斯商店(ROST)</b>–Ross Stores报告第一季度每股收益为1.34美元，而市场普遍预期为每股88美分。这家折扣零售商的收入远高于预期。对消费者的刺激付款和经济环境的整体改善提振了业绩。罗斯还宣布了一项新的15亿美元股票回购计划，该股在盘前交易中上涨了1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Applied Materials&nbsp;(AMAT) </b>– Applied Materials came in 12 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly profit of $1.63 per share. The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment reported better-than-expected revenue as well. Applied Materials also gave an upbeat full-year forecast, with chip manufacturers trying to ramp up production in the face of a worldwide chip shortage. Applied Materials added 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>应用材料公司(AMAT)</b>-应用材料公司每股收益比预期高出12美分，季度利润为每股1.63美元。这家半导体制造设备制造商公布的收入也好于预期。应用材料公司也给出了乐观的全年预测，面对全球芯片短缺，芯片制造商正试图提高产量。应用材料公司盘前上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Kansas City Southern&nbsp;</b><b>(KSU) </b>– The railroad operator is expected to officially end its merger agreement with&nbsp;Canadian Pacific Railway&nbsp;(CP) today, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. Kansas City Southern will instead accept a competing bid from&nbsp;Canadian National Railway&nbsp;(CNI) after Canadian Pacific declined to raise its original bid.</p><p><blockquote><b>堪萨斯城南部</b><b>(KSU)</b>–据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，该铁路运营商预计将于今天正式终止与加拿大太平洋铁路(CP)的合并协议。在加拿大太平洋公司拒绝提高最初出价后，堪萨斯城南方铁路公司将接受加拿大国家铁路公司（CNI）的竞争性投标。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-21 20:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>U.S. Futures, Stocks Rise at End of Volatile Week</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin hovered around $40,000, pausing its attempt to recover from this week’s massive plunge</li> </ul> U.S. futures rose with stocks on Friday as investor optimism got a boost from strong economic readings and earnings reports. Oil climbed.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国期货和股市在动荡的一周结束时上涨</li></ul><ul><li>比特币徘徊在40,000美元附近，暂停了从本周大幅暴跌中复苏的尝试</li></ul>由于强劲的经济数据和收益报告提振了投资者的乐观情绪，美国期货周五随股市上涨。石油攀升。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 152 points, or 0.45%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 17 points, or 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 52 points, or 0.39%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-minis上涨152点，涨幅0.45%，标普500 e-minis上涨17点，涨幅0.41%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨52点，涨幅0.39%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1204a4bbb3405be233ca57a6b40e26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin hovered around $40,000, pausing its attempt to recover from this week’s massive plunge. Cryptocurrency-related stocks Coinbase Global, Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings firmed 1.9% and 2.9%.</p><p><blockquote>比特币徘徊在40,000美元左右，暂停了从本周大幅暴跌中复苏的尝试。加密货币相关股票Coinbase Global、Riot Blockchain和Marathon Digital Holdings分别上涨1.9%和2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Data firm IHS Markit’s U.S. manufacturing and service sector PMIs is set to be released before the opening bell and comes on the heels of surveys in the euro zone indicating the fastest pace of business growth in over three years in May.</p><p><blockquote>数据公司IHS Markit的美国制造业和服务业PMI将于开盘前发布，此前欧元区调查显示5月份商业增长速度为三年多来最快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tesla</b><b>&nbsp;(TSLA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Tesla stock rose nearly 2% in premarket trading.Elon Musk said on Friday that Tesla was close to establishing a presence in Russia and was looking at whether it could open factories there.</p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉</b><b>（特斯拉）</b>-特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近2%。Elon Musk周五表示，特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务，并正在考虑是否可以在俄罗斯开设工厂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic</b>&nbsp;<b>(SPCE)</b>&nbsp;– Virgin Galactic shares surged another&nbsp;4% in the premarket after the space travel company said&nbsp;the next test flight&nbsp;of its SpaceShipTwo Unity will occur on May 22. Virgin Galactic said a maintenance review on VMS Eve – the mothership which will carry SpaceShipTwo Unity to altitude – had been completed.</p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河</b> <b>(SPCE)</b>–太空旅行公司维珍银河表示其SpaceShipTwo Unity的下一次试飞将于5月22日进行，该公司股价在盘前又飙升4%。维珍银河表示，对VMS Eve的维护审查已经完成，VMS Eve是将太空船二号Unity运送到高空的母舰。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oatly&nbsp;(OTLY) </b>– Oatly soared 7.3% in premarket trading following the oat milk maker’s debut Wall Street session. Oatly’s IPO was priced at $17 per share, with the first trade at $22.12 and a closing Thursday price of $20.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>燕麦(OTLY)</b>-燕麦牛奶制造商在华尔街首次亮相后，Oatly在盘前交易中飙升7.3%。Oatly的IPO定价为每股17美元，首次交易价格为22.12美元，周四收盘价为20.20美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moderna&nbsp;</b><b>(MRNA)</b> – Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was officially approved by regulators in Japan and South Korea. Japan also gave approval to the Covid-19 vaccine produced by&nbsp;AstraZeneca&nbsp;(AZN) and Oxford University. Moderna was up 1.5% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>现代</b><b>（MRNA）</b>——莫德纳新冠疫苗正式获得日本和韩国监管机构批准。日本还批准了阿斯利康（AZN）和牛津大学生产的Covid-19疫苗。Moderna盘前上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Carnival&nbsp;(CCL) </b>– Carnival said its flagship brand — as well as its Holland America line — would resume Alaska cruises in July. Princess Cruises made a similar announcement, after the passage of new legislation by the House and Senate. The legislation temporarily waives the rule that required Alaska cruises to make a stop in Canada. Carnival shares gained 1.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>嘉年华(CCL)</b>-嘉年华表示，其旗舰品牌及其荷美航线将于7月恢复阿拉斯加游轮。在众议院和参议院通过新立法后，公主邮轮公司也发表了类似的声明。该立法暂时放弃了要求阿拉斯加游轮在加拿大停留的规定。嘉年华股价在盘前交易中上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Foot Locker&nbsp;(FL) </b>– Foot Locker shares rallied 3.8% in the premarket after the footwear and apparel retailer reported quarterly profit of $1.96 per share. That was well above the $1.09 a share consensus estimate, with revenue also topping forecasts and comparable-store sales surging a better than expected 80.3%.</p><p><blockquote><b>Foot Locker(FL)</b>-鞋类和服装零售商Foot Locker公布季度利润为每股1.96美元后，该公司股价盘前上涨3.8%。这远高于每股1.09美元的普遍预期，收入也超出预期，同店销售额飙升80.3%，好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>VF Corp&nbsp;(VFC)</b> – The company behind apparel brands like North Face, Timberland and Vans posted a mixed quarter, beating top line estimates but reporting lower-than-expected per-share profit. VF said the majority of its supply chain is operational, although it has seen isolated product delays. VF shares tumbled 6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>VF公司(VFC)</b>–North Face、Timberland和Vans等服装品牌背后的公司公布的季度业绩好坏参半，超出了营收预期，但每股利润低于预期。VF表示，尽管出现了孤立的产品延误，但其大部分供应链均已正常运行。VF股价盘前下跌6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buckle&nbsp;(BKE)</b> – The accessories retailer’s shares jumped 7.9% in the premarket after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. The Buckle earned $1.16 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of 43 cents a share, helped by the reopening of its stores.</p><p><blockquote><b>带扣(BKE)</b>-这家配件零售商公布最新季度利润和收入好于预期后，其股价在盘前上涨7.9%。得益于商店的重新开业，Buckle每股收益为1.16美元，而市场普遍预期为每股43美分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palo Alto Networks&nbsp;(PANW) </b>– Palo Alto reported quarterly earnings of $1.38 per share, beating estimates by 10 cents a share. The cybersecurity company’s revenue also came in above Wall Street projections. Palo Alto raised its full-year forecast amid an increase in remote working security issues and challenges. Palo Alto shares surged 5.7% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>帕洛阿尔托网络(PANW)</b>-帕洛阿尔托报告季度收益为每股1.38美元，超出预期10美分。这家网络安全公司的收入也高于华尔街的预测。由于远程工作安全问题和挑战增加，帕洛阿尔托上调了全年预测。帕洛阿尔托股价在盘前上涨5.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deere&nbsp;(DE)</b> – Deere rose 1.1% in premarket trading after beating estimates on the top and bottom line and raising its full-year forecast. Deere earned $5.68 per share for its fiscal second quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $4.52 a share. Revenue also beat estimates as a rebounding global economy boosts demand for farm and construction equipment.</p><p><blockquote><b>Deere（DE）</b>-Deere在营收和利润超出预期并上调全年预期后，在盘前交易中上涨1.1%。Deere第二财季每股收益5.68美元，而市场普遍预期为每股4.52美元。由于全球经济反弹提振了对农业和建筑设备的需求，收入也超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deckers Outdoor&nbsp;(DECK) </b>– Deckers earned $1.18 per share for its fiscal fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 64 cents a share. The footwear and apparel maker — which counts UGG and Teva among its brand names — also reported better-than-expected revenue, but issued a mixed outlook. Deckers rallied 6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>户外甲板（甲板）</b>-Deckers第四财季每股收益1.18美元，远高于每股64美分的普遍预期。这家鞋类和服装制造商（旗下品牌包括UGG和Teva）也公布了好于预期的收入，但前景好坏参半。Deckers盘前上涨6%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Ross Stores&nbsp;(ROST) </b>– Ross Stores reported first-quarter earnings of $1.34 per share, compared to an 88 cents a share consensus estimate. The discount retailer’s revenue came in well above forecasts. Results got a boost from stimulus payments to consumers and an overall improvement in the economic environment. Ross also announced a new $1.5 billion stock buyback program, and the stock added 1.4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>罗斯商店(ROST)</b>–Ross Stores报告第一季度每股收益为1.34美元，而市场普遍预期为每股88美分。这家折扣零售商的收入远高于预期。对消费者的刺激付款和经济环境的整体改善提振了业绩。罗斯还宣布了一项新的15亿美元股票回购计划，该股在盘前交易中上涨了1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Applied Materials&nbsp;(AMAT) </b>– Applied Materials came in 12 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly profit of $1.63 per share. The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment reported better-than-expected revenue as well. Applied Materials also gave an upbeat full-year forecast, with chip manufacturers trying to ramp up production in the face of a worldwide chip shortage. Applied Materials added 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>应用材料公司(AMAT)</b>-应用材料公司每股收益比预期高出12美分，季度利润为每股1.63美元。这家半导体制造设备制造商公布的收入也好于预期。应用材料公司也给出了乐观的全年预测，面对全球芯片短缺，芯片制造商正试图提高产量。应用材料公司盘前上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Kansas City Southern&nbsp;</b><b>(KSU) </b>– The railroad operator is expected to officially end its merger agreement with&nbsp;Canadian Pacific Railway&nbsp;(CP) today, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. Kansas City Southern will instead accept a competing bid from&nbsp;Canadian National Railway&nbsp;(CNI) after Canadian Pacific declined to raise its original bid.</p><p><blockquote><b>堪萨斯城南部</b><b>(KSU)</b>–据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，该铁路运营商预计将于今天正式终止与加拿大太平洋铁路(CP)的合并协议。在加拿大太平洋公司拒绝提高最初出价后，堪萨斯城南方铁路公司将接受加拿大国家铁路公司（CNI）的竞争性投标。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPCE":"维珍银河",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OTLY":"Oatly Group AB"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188151760","content_text":"U.S. Futures, Stocks Rise at End of Volatile Week\n\n\nBitcoin hovered around $40,000, pausing its attempt to recover from this week’s massive plunge\n\nU.S. futures rose with stocks on Friday as investor optimism got a boost from strong economic readings and earnings reports. Oil climbed.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 152 points, or 0.45%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 17 points, or 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 52 points, or 0.39%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nBitcoin hovered around $40,000, pausing its attempt to recover from this week’s massive plunge. Cryptocurrency-related stocks Coinbase Global, Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings firmed 1.9% and 2.9%.\nData firm IHS Markit’s U.S. manufacturing and service sector PMIs is set to be released before the opening bell and comes on the heels of surveys in the euro zone indicating the fastest pace of business growth in over three years in May.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nTesla (TSLA) – Tesla stock rose nearly 2% in premarket trading.Elon Musk said on Friday that Tesla was close to establishing a presence in Russia and was looking at whether it could open factories there.\nVirgin Galactic (SPCE) – Virgin Galactic shares surged another 4% in the premarket after the space travel company said the next test flight of its SpaceShipTwo Unity will occur on May 22. Virgin Galactic said a maintenance review on VMS Eve – the mothership which will carry SpaceShipTwo Unity to altitude – had been completed.\nOatly (OTLY) – Oatly soared 7.3% in premarket trading following the oat milk maker’s debut Wall Street session. Oatly’s IPO was priced at $17 per share, with the first trade at $22.12 and a closing Thursday price of $20.20.\nModerna (MRNA) – Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was officially approved by regulators in Japan and South Korea. Japan also gave approval to the Covid-19 vaccine produced by AstraZeneca (AZN) and Oxford University. Moderna was up 1.5% in the premarket.\nCarnival (CCL) – Carnival said its flagship brand — as well as its Holland America line — would resume Alaska cruises in July. Princess Cruises made a similar announcement, after the passage of new legislation by the House and Senate. The legislation temporarily waives the rule that required Alaska cruises to make a stop in Canada. Carnival shares gained 1.2% in premarket trading.\nFoot Locker (FL) – Foot Locker shares rallied 3.8% in the premarket after the footwear and apparel retailer reported quarterly profit of $1.96 per share. That was well above the $1.09 a share consensus estimate, with revenue also topping forecasts and comparable-store sales surging a better than expected 80.3%.\nVF Corp (VFC) – The company behind apparel brands like North Face, Timberland and Vans posted a mixed quarter, beating top line estimates but reporting lower-than-expected per-share profit. VF said the majority of its supply chain is operational, although it has seen isolated product delays. VF shares tumbled 6% in the premarket.\nThe Buckle (BKE) – The accessories retailer’s shares jumped 7.9% in the premarket after reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. The Buckle earned $1.16 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of 43 cents a share, helped by the reopening of its stores.\nPalo Alto Networks (PANW) – Palo Alto reported quarterly earnings of $1.38 per share, beating estimates by 10 cents a share. The cybersecurity company’s revenue also came in above Wall Street projections. Palo Alto raised its full-year forecast amid an increase in remote working security issues and challenges. Palo Alto shares surged 5.7% in premarket action.\nDeere (DE) – Deere rose 1.1% in premarket trading after beating estimates on the top and bottom line and raising its full-year forecast. Deere earned $5.68 per share for its fiscal second quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $4.52 a share. Revenue also beat estimates as a rebounding global economy boosts demand for farm and construction equipment.\nDeckers Outdoor (DECK) – Deckers earned $1.18 per share for its fiscal fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 64 cents a share. The footwear and apparel maker — which counts UGG and Teva among its brand names — also reported better-than-expected revenue, but issued a mixed outlook. Deckers rallied 6% in the premarket.\nRoss Stores (ROST) – Ross Stores reported first-quarter earnings of $1.34 per share, compared to an 88 cents a share consensus estimate. The discount retailer’s revenue came in well above forecasts. Results got a boost from stimulus payments to consumers and an overall improvement in the economic environment. Ross also announced a new $1.5 billion stock buyback program, and the stock added 1.4% in premarket trading.\nApplied Materials (AMAT) – Applied Materials came in 12 cents a share above estimates, with quarterly profit of $1.63 per share. The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment reported better-than-expected revenue as well. Applied Materials also gave an upbeat full-year forecast, with chip manufacturers trying to ramp up production in the face of a worldwide chip shortage. Applied Materials added 1.1% in the premarket.\nKansas City Southern (KSU) – The railroad operator is expected to officially end its merger agreement with Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) today, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. Kansas City Southern will instead accept a competing bid from Canadian National Railway (CNI) after Canadian Pacific declined to raise its original bid.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OTLY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPCE":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":114928281,"gmtCreate":1623043760443,"gmtModify":1634095900812,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy sell safely everyone","listText":"Buy sell safely everyone","text":"Buy sell safely everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114928281","repostId":"2141926289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161157666,"gmtCreate":1623913475555,"gmtModify":1634025942583,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy!","listText":"Buy buy!","text":"Buy buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161157666","repostId":"2143379379","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116577906,"gmtCreate":1622814161105,"gmtModify":1634097751422,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To&nbsp;the moon !!!","listText":"To&nbsp;the moon !!!","text":"To the moon !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116577906","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118226688,"gmtCreate":1622734539244,"gmtModify":1634098553960,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh wow. Amazing","listText":"Oh wow. Amazing","text":"Oh wow. Amazing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118226688","repostId":"1160289276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118228664,"gmtCreate":1622734476258,"gmtModify":1634098554656,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold!!!","listText":"Hold!!!","text":"Hold!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118228664","repostId":"2140422463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114921776,"gmtCreate":1623043734495,"gmtModify":1634095901380,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114921776","repostId":"1150140988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150140988","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623043031,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150140988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 13:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants<blockquote>戴姆勒中国合资企业计划将梅赛德斯-奔驰工厂产能提高45%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150140988","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shi","content":"<p>BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz cars by 45%, a document on the venture’s Chinese website showed.</p><p><blockquote>路透北京6月7日-戴姆勒股份公司(Daimler AG)与北京汽车的主要中国合资企业中国网站上的一份文件显示，该合资企业计划在北京的两家工厂增加班次和工作日，这将使梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车的名义产能提高45%。</blockquote></p><p>The projected upgrade at Beijing Benz Automotive Co (BBAC), 49%-owned by Stuttgart-based Daimler and the latter’s main business in China, was set out in a document posted on the BBAC website last month to seek public opinion on the expansion.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于斯图加特的戴姆勒持有北京奔驰汽车有限公司（BBAC）49%的股份，是后者在中国的主要业务，该公司上个月在BBAC网站上发布的一份文件中列出了预计的升级，以征求公众对此次扩张的意见。</blockquote></p><p>It comes as demand for BBAC’s luxury vehicles surges in the world’s biggest car market. China is Daimler’s biggest country business, with more cars sold there than in Germany and the United States combined.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，全球最大的汽车市场对BBAC豪华车的需求激增。中国是戴姆勒最大的国家业务，其汽车销量超过了德国和美国的总和。</blockquote></p><p>Last year BBAC sold a record 611,000 vehicles in the country, up 8% from 567,000 in 2019. The didn’t specify the base capacities of the factories, but the company has previously said combined capacity of the two plants was 520,000 vehicles a year.</p><p><blockquote>去年，BBAC在该国售出了创纪录的611,000辆汽车，比2019年的567,000辆增长了8%。该公司没有具体说明工厂的基本产能，但该公司此前曾表示，两家工厂的总产能为每年52万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p>According to the document, the joint venture will increase working days to 312 per year at both of its Beijing plants. Previously, one plant, known as the MRA factory, had 290 days of output per year while the other, the MFA factory, had 250 days.</p><p><blockquote>根据该文件，该合资企业将把其北京两家工厂的工作日增加到每年312个。此前，一家名为MRA工厂的工厂每年的产量为290天，而另一家名为MFA工厂的产量为250天。</blockquote></p><p>One of the plants will also add one 7.5-hour shift per working day, according to the document, which did not specify the investment related to the capacity increase at the two factories, which plan to make gasoline and electric-powered vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>文件称，其中一家工厂还将增加每个工作日7.5小时的轮班，但没有具体说明与这两家工厂产能增加相关的投资，这两家工厂计划生产汽油和电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p>BBAC, which declined to comment on the projected upgrade, also has a separate electric vehicle factory in Beijing with capacity of 150,000 cars per year.</p><p><blockquote>BBAC拒绝就预计的升级发表评论，该公司在北京还有一家独立的电动汽车工厂，年产能为15万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The venture is 51%-owned by BAIC Motor. The latter’s parent, BAIC Group, owns 5% of Daimler, which didn’t answer Reuters’ questions on the capacity upgrade project.</p><p><blockquote>该合资企业由北京汽车持有51%的股份。后者的母公司北汽集团拥有戴姆勒5%的股份，戴姆勒没有回答路透社关于产能升级项目的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from BBAC, next year Daimler will start making electric Smart cars with China’s Geely, which holds a 9.7% stake of Daimler, the companies said in 2019. It also has a truck venture with another BAIC Group unit, Beiqi Foton .</p><p><blockquote>两家公司在2019年表示，除了BBAC之外，戴姆勒明年还将开始与持有戴姆勒9.7%股份的中国吉利合作生产电动智能汽车。它还与北汽集团的另一家子公司北汽福田建立了卡车合资企业。</blockquote></p><p>Chinese policymakers expect 20% of overall new vehicle sales will be battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国政策制定者预计，到2025年，新车总销量的20%将是纯电动、插电式混合动力或氢燃料电池汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants<blockquote>戴姆勒中国合资企业计划将梅赛德斯-奔驰工厂产能提高45%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants<blockquote>戴姆勒中国合资企业计划将梅赛德斯-奔驰工厂产能提高45%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz cars by 45%, a document on the venture’s Chinese website showed.</p><p><blockquote>路透北京6月7日-戴姆勒股份公司(Daimler AG)与北京汽车的主要中国合资企业中国网站上的一份文件显示，该合资企业计划在北京的两家工厂增加班次和工作日，这将使梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车的名义产能提高45%。</blockquote></p><p>The projected upgrade at Beijing Benz Automotive Co (BBAC), 49%-owned by Stuttgart-based Daimler and the latter’s main business in China, was set out in a document posted on the BBAC website last month to seek public opinion on the expansion.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于斯图加特的戴姆勒持有北京奔驰汽车有限公司（BBAC）49%的股份，是后者在中国的主要业务，该公司上个月在BBAC网站上发布的一份文件中列出了预计的升级，以征求公众对此次扩张的意见。</blockquote></p><p>It comes as demand for BBAC’s luxury vehicles surges in the world’s biggest car market. China is Daimler’s biggest country business, with more cars sold there than in Germany and the United States combined.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，全球最大的汽车市场对BBAC豪华车的需求激增。中国是戴姆勒最大的国家业务，其汽车销量超过了德国和美国的总和。</blockquote></p><p>Last year BBAC sold a record 611,000 vehicles in the country, up 8% from 567,000 in 2019. The didn’t specify the base capacities of the factories, but the company has previously said combined capacity of the two plants was 520,000 vehicles a year.</p><p><blockquote>去年，BBAC在该国售出了创纪录的611,000辆汽车，比2019年的567,000辆增长了8%。该公司没有具体说明工厂的基本产能，但该公司此前曾表示，两家工厂的总产能为每年52万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p>According to the document, the joint venture will increase working days to 312 per year at both of its Beijing plants. Previously, one plant, known as the MRA factory, had 290 days of output per year while the other, the MFA factory, had 250 days.</p><p><blockquote>根据该文件，该合资企业将把其北京两家工厂的工作日增加到每年312个。此前，一家名为MRA工厂的工厂每年的产量为290天，而另一家名为MFA工厂的产量为250天。</blockquote></p><p>One of the plants will also add one 7.5-hour shift per working day, according to the document, which did not specify the investment related to the capacity increase at the two factories, which plan to make gasoline and electric-powered vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>文件称，其中一家工厂还将增加每个工作日7.5小时的轮班，但没有具体说明与这两家工厂产能增加相关的投资，这两家工厂计划生产汽油和电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p>BBAC, which declined to comment on the projected upgrade, also has a separate electric vehicle factory in Beijing with capacity of 150,000 cars per year.</p><p><blockquote>BBAC拒绝就预计的升级发表评论，该公司在北京还有一家独立的电动汽车工厂，年产能为15万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p>The venture is 51%-owned by BAIC Motor. The latter’s parent, BAIC Group, owns 5% of Daimler, which didn’t answer Reuters’ questions on the capacity upgrade project.</p><p><blockquote>该合资企业由北京汽车持有51%的股份。后者的母公司北汽集团拥有戴姆勒5%的股份，戴姆勒没有回答路透社关于产能升级项目的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Aside from BBAC, next year Daimler will start making electric Smart cars with China’s Geely, which holds a 9.7% stake of Daimler, the companies said in 2019. It also has a truck venture with another BAIC Group unit, Beiqi Foton .</p><p><blockquote>两家公司在2019年表示，除了BBAC之外，戴姆勒明年还将开始与持有戴姆勒9.7%股份的中国吉利合作生产电动智能汽车。它还与北汽集团的另一家子公司北汽福田建立了卡车合资企业。</blockquote></p><p>Chinese policymakers expect 20% of overall new vehicle sales will be battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国政策制定者预计，到2025年，新车总销量的20%将是纯电动、插电式混合动力或氢燃料电池汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-china/daimlers-china-venture-aims-to-raise-capacity-45-at-mercedes-benz-plants-document-idUSL3N2NL1RI\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDAIF":"戴姆勒汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-china/daimlers-china-venture-aims-to-raise-capacity-45-at-mercedes-benz-plants-document-idUSL3N2NL1RI","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150140988","content_text":"BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz cars by 45%, a document on the venture’s Chinese website showed.The projected upgrade at Beijing Benz Automotive Co (BBAC), 49%-owned by Stuttgart-based Daimler and the latter’s main business in China, was set out in a document posted on the BBAC website last month to seek public opinion on the expansion.It comes as demand for BBAC’s luxury vehicles surges in the world’s biggest car market. China is Daimler’s biggest country business, with more cars sold there than in Germany and the United States combined.Last year BBAC sold a record 611,000 vehicles in the country, up 8% from 567,000 in 2019. The didn’t specify the base capacities of the factories, but the company has previously said combined capacity of the two plants was 520,000 vehicles a year.According to the document, the joint venture will increase working days to 312 per year at both of its Beijing plants. Previously, one plant, known as the MRA factory, had 290 days of output per year while the other, the MFA factory, had 250 days.One of the plants will also add one 7.5-hour shift per working day, according to the document, which did not specify the investment related to the capacity increase at the two factories, which plan to make gasoline and electric-powered vehicles.BBAC, which declined to comment on the projected upgrade, also has a separate electric vehicle factory in Beijing with capacity of 150,000 cars per year.The venture is 51%-owned by BAIC Motor. The latter’s parent, BAIC Group, owns 5% of Daimler, which didn’t answer Reuters’ questions on the capacity upgrade project.Aside from BBAC, next year Daimler will start making electric Smart cars with China’s Geely, which holds a 9.7% stake of Daimler, the companies said in 2019. It also has a truck venture with another BAIC Group unit, Beiqi Foton .Chinese policymakers expect 20% of overall new vehicle sales will be battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDAIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116409935,"gmtCreate":1622814201327,"gmtModify":1634097749733,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116409935","repostId":"1122646159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116400175,"gmtCreate":1622814188297,"gmtModify":1634097750397,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116400175","repostId":"1122646159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118221483,"gmtCreate":1622734394742,"gmtModify":1634098555251,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"HODL!!","listText":"HODL!!","text":"HODL!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118221483","repostId":"1160289276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139117747,"gmtCreate":1621600362289,"gmtModify":1634187758293,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow news","listText":"Wow news","text":"Wow news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139117747","repostId":"2137590928","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}