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2021-06-29

Good read

Signs the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote>

2021-06-29

AMC and Tesla fly

2021-06-28

Palantir is a good company

2021-06-28

Good read

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2021-06-28

Good read

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2021-06-28

Good read

Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Good read

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2021-06-24

Good read

Eli Lilly Stock Jumps, Biogen Drops on Alzheimer's Treatment Approval<blockquote>礼来股价上涨，百健因阿尔茨海默氏症治疗批准下降</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Good read

Stock Volatility Hits Fresh Pandemic Low<blockquote>股市波动性创下大流行新低</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Good read

Initial Jobless Claims Disappoint Again As Pennsylvania Pukes Again<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚州再次呕吐，首次申请失业救济人数再次令人失望</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Good read

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2021-06-24

Good read

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2021-06-24

Nice article

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2021-06-24

Good job

The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>

2021-06-24

AMC Huat

2021-06-24

Nice

World's Top 10 Hedge Fund Firms<blockquote>全球十大对冲基金公司</blockquote>

2021-06-24

AMC to the moon

2021-06-24

Nice

Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Nice

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2021-06-23

Nice

Big Oil CEOs Join Traders in Seeing Possibility of $100 Oil<blockquote>大型石油公司首席执行官与交易员一起看到油价达到 100 美元的可能性</blockquote>

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Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.</p><p><blockquote>官方仲裁者美国国家经济研究局尚未表示经济低迷已经结束。然而，随着就业、住房和股市的乐观迹象，经济确实回到了复苏模式。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家认为这次衰退是1918年衰退的镜像，那次衰退也是由大流行引发的：全球流感爆发。那次低迷仅持续了7个月，是有记录以来第二短的。</blockquote></p><p> Could the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.</p><p><blockquote>Covid衰退会遵循类似的路径吗？我们必须等待NBER的裁决，该组织宣布经济周期的开始和结束——通常需要几个月的时间，直到衰退结束后才宣布结束。</blockquote></p><p> There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>当然，仍有一些经济领域远未达到2020年2月之前的水平，例如小企业、零售和餐馆。</blockquote></p><p> But plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.</p><p><blockquote>但是很多领域都在变得更好。GDP再次增长，在去年上半年下降后，过去三个季度飙升。随着遭受重创的服务业工人重返工作岗位，就业市场也在复苏。盈利随着股市反弹。房地产市场继续火爆。</blockquote></p><p> And it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多主要城市来说，一切都恢复了正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.</p><p><blockquote>向公寓业主和商业房地产公司提供贷款的房地产公司Arbor Realty Trust(ABR)董事长兼首席执行官伊万·考夫曼(Ivan Kaufman)表示：“我们不再处于低迷状态。情况非常强劲，几乎令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Default rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.</p><p><blockquote>他说，考夫曼公司客户的违约率相对较低，并补充说租金——去年受到短暂打击——又开始攀升。租赁需求也在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> The demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>美国城市的消亡可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"</p><p><blockquote>考夫曼说：“新冠病毒存在的问题是没有人进入城市。”“这种现象造成了一些空缺。但这已经结束了。”</blockquote></p><p> 'Strong...to quite strong'</p><p><blockquote>“强……到相当强”</blockquote></p><p> Urban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.</p><p><blockquote>城市房地产并不是唯一复苏的经济部门。资金管理公司ClearBridge Investments拥有一个经济衰退风险仪表板，该仪表板着眼于十几项经济指标，包括零售销售、住房、大宗商品价格、就业市场和卡车运输。</blockquote></p><p> ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge本月早些时候表示，这些指标中的大多数在2020年5月触底，所有12项指标现在都显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge的分析师在一份报告中表示，考虑到这一点，他们认为衰退可能在大约一年前就结束了——距离衰退开始仅四个月。他们甚至用《见见父母》中的一个笑话来描述经济，称其“强劲……到相当强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者并没有表现得好像这仍然是一场衰退。现在最大的担忧是经济是否会过快升温，迫使美联储提前缩减购债规模和加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors研究总监马特·庇隆(Matt Peron)表示：“每次衰退都是不同的，这是一次不寻常的衰退。但市场显然已经从疫情中走出来。”“投资者关注通胀。这是第一、第二和第三大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Fear the double dip?</p><p><blockquote>害怕二次探底？</blockquote></p><p> Beyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示，除了担心美联储拿走众所周知的潘趣酒碗并过早削减刺激措施外，投资者还担心美联储不会迅速采取行动，在通胀压力失控之前抑制通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示：“美联储必须走钢丝。”他补充说，央行的错误可能会导致所谓的双底衰退，即经济在复苏后迅速再次收缩。</blockquote></p><p> That's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>这就是1980年历史上短暂的衰退之后发生的情况，那次衰退只有六个月，是有记录以来最短的一次。美联储的一系列大幅加息导致了另一场从1981年7月持续到1982年11月的衰退。</blockquote></p><p> But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.</p><p><blockquote>但许多华尔街专家和经济学家认为，美联储不会很快被迫加息，否则通胀将会失控。</blockquote></p><p> \"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师周一在一份报告中表示：“工资上涨导致物价上涨导致的持续通胀可能会导致金融状况收紧，并使这种年轻的扩张面临危险。”“但我们仍然属于预计通胀将从现在开始放缓的阵营。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>策略师认为，疫情造成的劳动力市场和供应短缺应该很快就会缓解。这将减轻工资增长的压力，而工资增长是通货膨胀的一个关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> They also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>他们还认为，企业已经进行了足够的投资来提高生产率，这应该意味着他们不必将大宗商品价格上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师表示：“我们可能已经看到了2021年最高的月度通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样的话，在可预见的未来，经济可能会继续扩张。现在唯一的问题是NBER何时会真正站出来正式宣布2020年衰退结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Signs the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSigns the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）美国由Covid引发的衰退是一场痛苦的衰退，但最终可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> The official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.</p><p><blockquote>官方仲裁者美国国家经济研究局尚未表示经济低迷已经结束。然而，随着就业、住房和股市的乐观迹象，经济确实回到了复苏模式。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家认为这次衰退是1918年衰退的镜像，那次衰退也是由大流行引发的：全球流感爆发。那次低迷仅持续了7个月，是有记录以来第二短的。</blockquote></p><p> Could the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.</p><p><blockquote>Covid衰退会遵循类似的路径吗？我们必须等待NBER的裁决，该组织宣布经济周期的开始和结束——通常需要几个月的时间，直到衰退结束后才宣布结束。</blockquote></p><p> There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>当然，仍有一些经济领域远未达到2020年2月之前的水平，例如小企业、零售和餐馆。</blockquote></p><p> But plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.</p><p><blockquote>但是很多领域都在变得更好。GDP再次增长，在去年上半年下降后，过去三个季度飙升。随着遭受重创的服务业工人重返工作岗位，就业市场也在复苏。盈利随着股市反弹。房地产市场继续火爆。</blockquote></p><p> And it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多主要城市来说，一切都恢复了正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.</p><p><blockquote>向公寓业主和商业房地产公司提供贷款的房地产公司Arbor Realty Trust(ABR)董事长兼首席执行官伊万·考夫曼(Ivan Kaufman)表示：“我们不再处于低迷状态。情况非常强劲，几乎令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Default rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.</p><p><blockquote>他说，考夫曼公司客户的违约率相对较低，并补充说租金——去年受到短暂打击——又开始攀升。租赁需求也在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> The demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>美国城市的消亡可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"</p><p><blockquote>考夫曼说：“新冠病毒存在的问题是没有人进入城市。”“这种现象造成了一些空缺。但这已经结束了。”</blockquote></p><p> 'Strong...to quite strong'</p><p><blockquote>“强……到相当强”</blockquote></p><p> Urban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.</p><p><blockquote>城市房地产并不是唯一复苏的经济部门。资金管理公司ClearBridge Investments拥有一个经济衰退风险仪表板，该仪表板着眼于十几项经济指标，包括零售销售、住房、大宗商品价格、就业市场和卡车运输。</blockquote></p><p> ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge本月早些时候表示，这些指标中的大多数在2020年5月触底，所有12项指标现在都显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge的分析师在一份报告中表示，考虑到这一点，他们认为衰退可能在大约一年前就结束了——距离衰退开始仅四个月。他们甚至用《见见父母》中的一个笑话来描述经济，称其“强劲……到相当强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者并没有表现得好像这仍然是一场衰退。现在最大的担忧是经济是否会过快升温，迫使美联储提前缩减购债规模和加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors研究总监马特·庇隆(Matt Peron)表示：“每次衰退都是不同的，这是一次不寻常的衰退。但市场显然已经从疫情中走出来。”“投资者关注通胀。这是第一、第二和第三大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Fear the double dip?</p><p><blockquote>害怕二次探底？</blockquote></p><p> Beyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示，除了担心美联储拿走众所周知的潘趣酒碗并过早削减刺激措施外，投资者还担心美联储不会迅速采取行动，在通胀压力失控之前抑制通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示：“美联储必须走钢丝。”他补充说，央行的错误可能会导致所谓的双底衰退，即经济在复苏后迅速再次收缩。</blockquote></p><p> That's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>这就是1980年历史上短暂的衰退之后发生的情况，那次衰退只有六个月，是有记录以来最短的一次。美联储的一系列大幅加息导致了另一场从1981年7月持续到1982年11月的衰退。</blockquote></p><p> But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.</p><p><blockquote>但许多华尔街专家和经济学家认为，美联储不会很快被迫加息，否则通胀将会失控。</blockquote></p><p> \"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师周一在一份报告中表示：“工资上涨导致物价上涨导致的持续通胀可能会导致金融状况收紧，并使这种年轻的扩张面临危险。”“但我们仍然属于预计通胀将从现在开始放缓的阵营。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>策略师认为，疫情造成的劳动力市场和供应短缺应该很快就会缓解。这将减轻工资增长的压力，而工资增长是通货膨胀的一个关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> They also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>他们还认为，企业已经进行了足够的投资来提高生产率，这应该意味着他们不必将大宗商品价格上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师表示：“我们可能已经看到了2021年最高的月度通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样的话，在可预见的未来，经济可能会继续扩张。现在唯一的问题是NBER何时会真正站出来正式宣布2020年衰退结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/investing/recession-recovery-covid-economy/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/investing/recession-recovery-covid-economy/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146874721","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.\nThe official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.\nSome experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.\nCould the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.\nThere are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.\nBut plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.\nAnd it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.\n\"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.\nDefault rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.\nThe demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.\n\"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"\n'Strong...to quite strong'\nUrban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.\nClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.\nAnalysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"\nMeanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.\n\"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"\nFear the double dip?\nBeyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.\n\"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.\nThat's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.\nBut many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.\n\"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"\nThe strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.\nThey also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.\n\"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.\nIf that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159955170,"gmtCreate":1624937951690,"gmtModify":1631891372954,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMC and Tesla fly","listText":"AMC and Tesla fly","text":"AMC and Tesla fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159955170","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127969253,"gmtCreate":1624817163072,"gmtModify":1631891372969,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Palantir is a good company","listText":"Palantir is a good company","text":"Palantir is a good company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127969253","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127969630,"gmtCreate":1624817138320,"gmtModify":1631891372983,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127969630","repostId":"1140044383","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127969823,"gmtCreate":1624817117062,"gmtModify":1631891372992,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127969823","repostId":"2146000990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127969166,"gmtCreate":1624817103255,"gmtModify":1631891373021,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127969166","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新精神的公司之一，引领着电子商务行业和云计算服务。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股一致。</li><li>本文着眼于亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>如今，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）似乎有点定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果 (AAPL) 或微软 (MSFT) 等其他热门股票。好吧，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我将分析我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的原因，以帮助你在未来做出更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一件重要的事情——我不是亚马逊方面的专家，而且我很难评估成长型股票。我真的怀疑我是否有能力估计一家公司的未来增长。我通过观察过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来预测未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法接近于“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推不是很好，因为未来不同于过去——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格在获得大致正确的估值方面做得很好。我总是尽量把我的估值定得低，因为低买高卖赔钱不如低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全裕度</b>意思是买打折的东西……这就是伟大投资的全部秘诀。规则 1 投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊从哪里来钱？亚马逊分为3个部门：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为2个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来很可能会继续保持高增长。在本节中，我查看了亚马逊每个细分市场过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此对未来做出了保守的预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个细分市场的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是 AMZN 的北美业务。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美能赚多少钱必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内从2000亿美元的收入增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常不可思议的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊的国际业务：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入增长 20%，营业利润率将有所提高。我认为营业利润率会逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊美国业务相似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，这里是 AWS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计 AWS 细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预计年收入增长率为25-30%，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，到2025年，云计算行业的CAGR增长率应该约为17.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为 28%，因为 AWS 业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够将成本分摊到更多人身上，从而获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率有可能超过 28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测被加在一起，以帮助我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能会投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购高达50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定的到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>来源：2020 10-K 第 60 页，<i>增加了重点</i>但就我们的目的而言，这句话表明亚马逊在过去 3 年里没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲置现金。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约26B美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可能会看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了 7.7% 的贴现率，因为我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 就是这样。我假设股权成本为 8%，过去 10 年亚马逊的平均税率约为 20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我用DCF模型找到了亚马逊今天的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部 2 个红色方框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将较高。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到 2025 年，亚马逊的收入将超过 8500 亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据预计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约 5500 亿美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为 3900 亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很容易成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司有多少收入将成为商业利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石框中，我应用贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被高估了。该模型预测该股可能被高估约 15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来 5 年的年回报率约为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在目前的价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我抛出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价”。这背后的想法是，AMZN 股票越便宜，我们期望的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股 2,200 美元的年回报率约为 15%，每股 1,700 美元的年回报率约为 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但是当股票交易价格接近 3,500 美元时，将买入价设定在 2,000 美元左右是不是似乎不合理？”确实有一点点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能跌破 2,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能会有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1900美元（我希望我当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被略微高估了，因为它似乎在未来 5 年内提供了约 5% 的年回报率。这并不意味着如果你是长期持有者，你就应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果您正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果你已经关注亚马逊有一段时间了，你想进入亚马逊，现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资股票，我们仍然可以看着亚马逊成为世界上收入最高的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明的家伙。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢你的阅读，我希望你今天过得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新精神的公司之一，引领着电子商务行业和云计算服务。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股一致。</li><li>本文着眼于亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>如今，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）似乎有点定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果 (AAPL) 或微软 (MSFT) 等其他热门股票。好吧，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我将分析我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的原因，以帮助你在未来做出更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一件重要的事情——我不是亚马逊方面的专家，而且我很难评估成长型股票。我真的怀疑我是否有能力估计一家公司的未来增长。我通过观察过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来预测未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法接近于“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推不是很好，因为未来不同于过去——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格在获得大致正确的估值方面做得很好。我总是尽量把我的估值定得低，因为低买高卖赔钱不如低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全裕度</b>意思是买打折的东西……这就是伟大投资的全部秘诀。规则 1 投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊从哪里来钱？亚马逊分为3个部门：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为2个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来很可能会继续保持高增长。在本节中，我查看了亚马逊每个细分市场过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此对未来做出了保守的预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个细分市场的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是 AMZN 的北美业务。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美能赚多少钱必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内从2000亿美元的收入增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常不可思议的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊的国际业务：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入增长 20%，营业利润率将有所提高。我认为营业利润率会逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊美国业务相似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，这里是 AWS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计 AWS 细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预计年收入增长率为25-30%，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，到2025年，云计算行业的CAGR增长率应该约为17.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为 28%，因为 AWS 业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够将成本分摊到更多人身上，从而获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率有可能超过 28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测被加在一起，以帮助我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能会投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购高达50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定的到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>来源：2020 10-K 第 60 页，<i>增加了重点</i>但就我们的目的而言，这句话表明亚马逊在过去 3 年里没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲置现金。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约26B美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可能会看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了 7.7% 的贴现率，因为我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 就是这样。我假设股权成本为 8%，过去 10 年亚马逊的平均税率约为 20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我用DCF模型找到了亚马逊今天的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部 2 个红色方框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将较高。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到 2025 年，亚马逊的收入将超过 8500 亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据预计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约 5500 亿美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为 3900 亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很容易成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司有多少收入将成为商业利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石框中，我应用贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被高估了。该模型预测该股可能被高估约 15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来 5 年的年回报率约为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在目前的价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我抛出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价”。这背后的想法是，AMZN 股票越便宜，我们期望的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股 2,200 美元的年回报率约为 15%，每股 1,700 美元的年回报率约为 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但是当股票交易价格接近 3,500 美元时，将买入价设定在 2,000 美元左右是不是似乎不合理？”确实有一点点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能跌破 2,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能会有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1900美元（我希望我当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被略微高估了，因为它似乎在未来 5 年内提供了约 5% 的年回报率。这并不意味着如果你是长期持有者，你就应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果您正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果你已经关注亚马逊有一段时间了，你想进入亚马逊，现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资股票，我们仍然可以看着亚马逊成为世界上收入最高的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明的家伙。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢你的阅读，我希望你今天过得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126928345,"gmtCreate":1624542661187,"gmtModify":1631891373021,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126928345","repostId":"1172727653","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126921699,"gmtCreate":1624542644711,"gmtModify":1631891373028,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126921699","repostId":"1113369372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113369372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624535308,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1113369372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 19:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Eli Lilly Stock Jumps, Biogen Drops on Alzheimer's Treatment Approval<blockquote>礼来股价上涨，百健因阿尔茨海默氏症治疗批准下降</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113369372","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"(Update: June 24, 2021 at 09:32 a.m. ET)\nEli Lilly shares jumped over 8% in morning trading after th","content":"<p><i><b>(Update: June 24, 2021 at 09:32 a.m. ET)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 6 月 24 日上午 09:32）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Eli Lilly shares jumped over 8% in&nbsp;morning trading after the drug maker said it received breakthrough therapy designation for its Alzheimer's treatment from the Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司股价在早盘交易中上涨超过 8%，此前该制药商表示，其阿尔茨海默氏症治疗获得了美国食品和药物管理局的突破性疗法认定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b4cea69bed4d928fd18195924788827\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The move is meant to expedite the development and review of the experimental treatment.</p><p><blockquote>此举旨在加快实验治疗的开发和审查。</blockquote></p><p> Rival Biogen, whose own drug was approved earlier this month, fell over 6% in premarket trading. The FDA has faced criticism from some doctors and scientists for approving that drug.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手百健（Biogen）的自家药物于本月早些时候获得批准，该公司在盘前交易中下跌超过 6%。FDA因批准该药物而面临一些医生和科学家的批评。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eli Lilly Stock Jumps, Biogen Drops on Alzheimer's Treatment Approval<blockquote>礼来股价上涨，百健因阿尔茨海默氏症治疗批准下降</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEli Lilly Stock Jumps, Biogen Drops on Alzheimer's Treatment Approval<blockquote>礼来股价上涨，百健因阿尔茨海默氏症治疗批准下降</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 19:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i><b>(Update: June 24, 2021 at 09:32 a.m. ET)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 6 月 24 日上午 09:32）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Eli Lilly shares jumped over 8% in&nbsp;morning trading after the drug maker said it received breakthrough therapy designation for its Alzheimer's treatment from the Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司股价在早盘交易中上涨超过 8%，此前该制药商表示，其阿尔茨海默氏症治疗获得了美国食品和药物管理局的突破性疗法认定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b4cea69bed4d928fd18195924788827\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The move is meant to expedite the development and review of the experimental treatment.</p><p><blockquote>此举旨在加快实验治疗的开发和审查。</blockquote></p><p> Rival Biogen, whose own drug was approved earlier this month, fell over 6% in premarket trading. The FDA has faced criticism from some doctors and scientists for approving that drug.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手百健（Biogen）的自家药物于本月早些时候获得批准，该公司在盘前交易中下跌超过 6%。FDA因批准该药物而面临一些医生和科学家的批评。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-live-updates-062421/card/C1AeSf1mE5Wh1f1ra8mc\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-live-updates-062421/card/C1AeSf1mE5Wh1f1ra8mc","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113369372","content_text":"(Update: June 24, 2021 at 09:32 a.m. ET)\nEli Lilly shares jumped over 8% in morning trading after the drug maker said it received breakthrough therapy designation for its Alzheimer's treatment from the Food and Drug Administration.\n\nThe move is meant to expedite the development and review of the experimental treatment.\nRival Biogen, whose own drug was approved earlier this month, fell over 6% in premarket trading. The FDA has faced criticism from some doctors and scientists for approving that drug.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126923732,"gmtCreate":1624542630126,"gmtModify":1631891373043,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126923732","repostId":"1157108235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157108235","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624536641,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157108235?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 20:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Volatility Hits Fresh Pandemic Low<blockquote>股市波动性创下大流行新低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157108235","media":"The Wall Street Journal\t","summary":"The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as Wall Street's fear gauge—has fallen to a fresh pande","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfccfa24950007638006bff237c3a083\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as Wall Street's fear gauge—has fallen to a fresh pandemic-era low.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）——也被称为华尔街的恐惧指标——已跌至大流行时代的新低。</blockquote></p><p> The VIX dropped to 15.59 on Thursday morning, beating a recent low of 15.65 on June 11.</p><p><blockquote>周四上午，VIX 指数跌至 15.59，打破了 6 月 11 日 15.65 的近期低点。</blockquote></p><p> The index, which is based on volatility expectations drawn from options on the S&amp;P 500, tends to fall when stocks are grinding gently higher—and it tends to jump when stocks plummet. It hit an all-time record of 82.69 on March 16 last year when the Covid-19 panic was at its worst.</p><p><blockquote>该指数基于从标普500期权中得出的波动性预期，当股市小幅走高时，该指数往往会下跌，而当股市暴跌时，该指数往往会上涨。去年 3 月 16 日，当 Covid-19 恐慌最严重时，它创下了 82.69 的历史纪录。</blockquote></p><p> It is now at its lowest levels since February last year when it got as low as 13.7.</p><p><blockquote>目前处于去年2月以来的最低水平，当时最低水平为13.7。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Volatility Hits Fresh Pandemic Low<blockquote>股市波动性创下大流行新低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Volatility Hits Fresh Pandemic Low<blockquote>股市波动性创下大流行新低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal\t</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfccfa24950007638006bff237c3a083\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as Wall Street's fear gauge—has fallen to a fresh pandemic-era low.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）——也被称为华尔街的恐惧指标——已跌至大流行时代的新低。</blockquote></p><p> The VIX dropped to 15.59 on Thursday morning, beating a recent low of 15.65 on June 11.</p><p><blockquote>周四上午，VIX 指数跌至 15.59，打破了 6 月 11 日 15.65 的近期低点。</blockquote></p><p> The index, which is based on volatility expectations drawn from options on the S&amp;P 500, tends to fall when stocks are grinding gently higher—and it tends to jump when stocks plummet. It hit an all-time record of 82.69 on March 16 last year when the Covid-19 panic was at its worst.</p><p><blockquote>该指数基于从标普500期权中得出的波动性预期，当股市小幅走高时，该指数往往会下跌，而当股市暴跌时，该指数往往会上涨。去年 3 月 16 日，当 Covid-19 恐慌最严重时，它创下了 82.69 的历史纪录。</blockquote></p><p> It is now at its lowest levels since February last year when it got as low as 13.7.</p><p><blockquote>目前处于去年2月以来的最低水平，当时最低水平为13.7。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-live-updates-062421/card/aZpyO4H4RhqVTvxzTwua\">The Wall Street Journal\t</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-live-updates-062421/card/aZpyO4H4RhqVTvxzTwua","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157108235","content_text":"The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as Wall Street's fear gauge—has fallen to a fresh pandemic-era low.\nThe VIX dropped to 15.59 on Thursday morning, beating a recent low of 15.65 on June 11.\nThe index, which is based on volatility expectations drawn from options on the S&P 500, tends to fall when stocks are grinding gently higher—and it tends to jump when stocks plummet. It hit an all-time record of 82.69 on March 16 last year when the Covid-19 panic was at its worst.\nIt is now at its lowest levels since February last year when it got as low as 13.7.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126929701,"gmtCreate":1624542599903,"gmtModify":1631891373055,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126929701","repostId":"1178318911","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178318911","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624538539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178318911?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 20:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Initial Jobless Claims Disappoint Again As Pennsylvania Pukes Again<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚州再次呕吐，首次申请失业救济人数再次令人失望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178318911","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After rising unexpectedly last week (to 412k), initial jobless claims were expected to drop back (to","content":"<p>After rising unexpectedly last week (to 412k), initial jobless claims were expected to drop back (to 380k), but perhaps most notably,<b>today’s jobless claims report is the first to reflect the early June 12 phase out emergency benefits in Alaska, Iowa, Missouri and Mississippi</b>.</p><p><blockquote>在上周意外上升（至 41.2 万人）后，首次申请失业救济人数预计将下降（至 38 万人），但也许最值得注意的是，<b>今天的失业救济金申请报告首次反映了阿拉斯加、爱荷华州、密苏里州和密西西比州于 6 月 12 日提前逐步取消紧急救济金的情况。</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analysts were wrong -<b>initial claims printed 411k (notably worse than the 380k expected) and relatively flat from the week before</b>...</p><p><blockquote>分析师错了-<b>初始申请人数为 41.1 万人（明显低于预期的 38 万人），与前一周相比相对持平</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f40fbac9201d22b45bd0903f17c2020f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> But something crazy is going on in PA as for the second week in a row, it was the massive outlier in initial claims...</p><p><blockquote>但是连续第二周，宾夕法尼亚州发生了疯狂的事情，这是最初索赔中的巨大异常值……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df6b8956a2533b2e735e7d11fe73e71\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And this was the previous week...</p><p><blockquote>这是前一周……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9f9d90ca1042b9fb1624f021dae433\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Continuing claims improved, falling to 3.39mm - the lowest since pre-COVID...</p><p><blockquote>持续索赔有所改善，降至 3.39 毫米，为新冠疫情爆发前以来的最低水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2961e54fde98e826f3c7a8baf61b03\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Overall, 14.845 million Americans remain on some form of government dole...</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，1484.5万美国人仍在领取某种形式的政府救济金……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f0ed1c51ac90fe738f5c5960818b13c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Basically unchanged from the previous week...</p><p><blockquote>与前一周基本没有变化……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b693dd2f6ac8d12e9cde60387b28f5d3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> With over 9.2 million job openings out there,</p><p><blockquote>有超过920万个职位空缺，</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959006f9bc1feb41cfc4018100204c36\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> As more and more states end the handouts, will Americans who have grown accustomed for being paid to do nothing be willing to take a job?</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的州结束施舍，已经习惯了无所事事拿工资的美国人会愿意接受这份工作吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Initial Jobless Claims Disappoint Again As Pennsylvania Pukes Again<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚州再次呕吐，首次申请失业救济人数再次令人失望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInitial Jobless Claims Disappoint Again As Pennsylvania Pukes Again<blockquote>宾夕法尼亚州再次呕吐，首次申请失业救济人数再次令人失望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 20:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After rising unexpectedly last week (to 412k), initial jobless claims were expected to drop back (to 380k), but perhaps most notably,<b>today’s jobless claims report is the first to reflect the early June 12 phase out emergency benefits in Alaska, Iowa, Missouri and Mississippi</b>.</p><p><blockquote>在上周意外上升（至 41.2 万人）后，首次申请失业救济人数预计将下降（至 38 万人），但也许最值得注意的是，<b>今天的失业救济金申请报告首次反映了阿拉斯加、爱荷华州、密苏里州和密西西比州于 6 月 12 日提前逐步取消紧急救济金的情况。</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The analysts were wrong -<b>initial claims printed 411k (notably worse than the 380k expected) and relatively flat from the week before</b>...</p><p><blockquote>分析师错了-<b>初始申请人数为 41.1 万人（明显低于预期的 38 万人），与前一周相比相对持平</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f40fbac9201d22b45bd0903f17c2020f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> But something crazy is going on in PA as for the second week in a row, it was the massive outlier in initial claims...</p><p><blockquote>但是连续第二周，宾夕法尼亚州发生了疯狂的事情，这是最初索赔中的巨大异常值……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5df6b8956a2533b2e735e7d11fe73e71\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And this was the previous week...</p><p><blockquote>这是前一周……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9f9d90ca1042b9fb1624f021dae433\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Continuing claims improved, falling to 3.39mm - the lowest since pre-COVID...</p><p><blockquote>持续索赔有所改善，降至 3.39 毫米，为新冠疫情爆发前以来的最低水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2961e54fde98e826f3c7a8baf61b03\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Overall, 14.845 million Americans remain on some form of government dole...</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，1484.5万美国人仍在领取某种形式的政府救济金……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f0ed1c51ac90fe738f5c5960818b13c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Basically unchanged from the previous week...</p><p><blockquote>与前一周基本没有变化……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b693dd2f6ac8d12e9cde60387b28f5d3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> With over 9.2 million job openings out there,</p><p><blockquote>有超过920万个职位空缺，</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959006f9bc1feb41cfc4018100204c36\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> As more and more states end the handouts, will Americans who have grown accustomed for being paid to do nothing be willing to take a job?</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的州结束施舍，已经习惯了无所事事拿工资的美国人会愿意接受这份工作吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-disappoint-again-pennsylvania-pukes-again\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-disappoint-again-pennsylvania-pukes-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178318911","content_text":"After rising unexpectedly last week (to 412k), initial jobless claims were expected to drop back (to 380k), but perhaps most notably,today’s jobless claims report is the first to reflect the early June 12 phase out emergency benefits in Alaska, Iowa, Missouri and Mississippi.\nThe analysts were wrong -initial claims printed 411k (notably worse than the 380k expected) and relatively flat from the week before...\nSource: Bloomberg\nBut something crazy is going on in PA as for the second week in a row, it was the massive outlier in initial claims...\n\nAnd this was the previous week...\n\nContinuing claims improved, falling to 3.39mm - the lowest since pre-COVID...\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nOverall, 14.845 million Americans remain on some form of government dole...\n\nBasically unchanged from the previous week...\nSource: Bloomberg\nWith over 9.2 million job openings out there,\nSource: Bloomberg\nAs more and more states end the handouts, will Americans who have grown accustomed for being paid to do nothing be willing to take a job?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126929317,"gmtCreate":1624542586039,"gmtModify":1631892558871,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126929317","repostId":"1144309015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126920550,"gmtCreate":1624542572370,"gmtModify":1631892558874,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126920550","repostId":"2145046194","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126967679,"gmtCreate":1624542557891,"gmtModify":1631892558907,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice article&nbsp;","listText":"Nice article&nbsp;","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126967679","repostId":"2145046329","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126967087,"gmtCreate":1624542539549,"gmtModify":1631892558905,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job","listText":"Good job","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126967087","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128241488,"gmtCreate":1624521016544,"gmtModify":1631892558908,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMC Huat&nbsp;","listText":"AMC Huat&nbsp;","text":"AMC Huat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128241488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128241191,"gmtCreate":1624521002013,"gmtModify":1631892558908,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128241191","repostId":"1139439438","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139439438","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624519904,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1139439438?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"World's Top 10 Hedge Fund Firms<blockquote>全球十大对冲基金公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139439438","media":"Investopedia","summary":"Hedge fundsare alternative investments that use a variety of methods such as leveragedderivatives, s","content":"<p>Hedge fundsare alternative investments that use a variety of methods such as leveragedderivatives, short-selling, and other speculative strategies to earn a return that outperforms the broader market. Hedge funds invest in domestic and international markets alike. They typically impose $1 million minimums and targethigh-net-worth individuals,pension funds, and institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>对冲基金是另类投资，使用杠杆衍生品、卖空和其他投机策略等各种方法来获得优于大盘的回报。对冲基金投资于国内和国际市场。他们通常规定 100 万美元的最低限额，并针对高净值个人、养老基金和机构投资者。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, hedge funds invariably carry higher risk than traditional investments. They are not subject to the same regulations asmutual fundsand may not be required to file reports with theU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC).</p><p><blockquote>因此，对冲基金总是比传统投资承担更高的风险。它们不受与共同基金相同的法规约束，也可能不需要向美国提交报告。美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。</blockquote></p><p> The following 10 hedge fund firms dominate the space, based on totalassets under management(AUM) as of June 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据截至2021年6月的管理资产总额（AUM），以下10家对冲基金公司在该领域占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The World’s Top 10 Hedge Fund Firms</b><b>Blackrock Advisors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球十大对冲基金公司</b><b>贝莱德顾问</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Blackrock Advisors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝莱德顾问</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackRock (BLK) is a New York-based investment manager that manages trillions in assets. The largest BlackRock entity, BlackRock Fund Advisors, has been in operation since 1984 and oversees $1.9 trillion in assets.</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德 (BLK) 是一家总部位于纽约的投资管理公司，管理着数万亿美元的资产。贝莱德最大的实体贝莱德基金顾问公司自1984年开始运营，管理着1.9万亿美元的资产。</blockquote></p><p> BlackRock Financial Management was founded in 1994 and oversees $2.25 trillion. BlackRock Advisors, its internal hedge fund, started in 1994 and now handles $789.57 billion.</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德金融管理公司成立于1994年，管理着2.25万亿美元的资产。其内部对冲基金贝莱德顾问公司成立于 1994 年，目前管理着 7,895.7 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AQR Capital Management</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AQR资本管理</b></blockquote></p><p> AQR Capital Management is based in Greenwich, Conn., and usesquantitative analysisto develop financial models focused on value and momentum investing. ACR implements its strategies via mutual funds, a type of mutual offered in Europe known asUndertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities, and sponsored funds and managed accounts.</p><p><blockquote>AQR Capital Management总部位于康涅狄格州格林威治，使用定量分析开发专注于价值和动量投资的金融模型。ACR 通过共同基金（一种在欧洲提供的共同基金，称为可转让证券集体投资企业）以及发起基金和管理账户来实施其战略。</blockquote></p><p> As of March 31, 2020, AQR had $164billion under management.&nbsp;It also earned advisory feeds on another $224.8 billion in assets.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月31日，AQR管理着1640亿美元。它还获得了另外2248亿美元资产的咨询反馈。</blockquote></p><p> Cliff Asness founded the company along with partners John Liew, Robert Krail, and David Kabiller. The four had worked together on a hedge fund at Goldman Sachs. AQR launched its Absolute Return fund in August 1998, the same monthLong Term Capital Managementimploded.</p><p><blockquote>Cliff Asness 与合伙人 John Liew、Robert Krail 和 David Kabiller 一起创立了该公司。四人曾在高盛的一家对冲基金合作。AQR 于 1998 年 8 月推出了绝对回报基金，同月长期资本管理公司成立。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bridgewater Associates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>桥水联合公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Bridgewater Associates is based in Westport, Conn., and provides services to pension funds, foreign governments, central banks,university endowments, charitable foundations, and other institutional investors.6Co-chair and co-chief investment officer Ray Dalio founded the firm in 1975 from his two-bedroom New York apartment.</p><p><blockquote>Bridgewater Associates 总部位于康涅狄格州韦斯特波特，为养老基金、外国政府、中央银行、大学捐赠基金、慈善基金会和其他机构投资者提供服务。6联席主席兼联席首席投资官雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 于 1975 年在纽约的两居室公寓里创立了该公司。</blockquote></p><p> The company offers four main funds:</p><p><blockquote>该公司提供四种主要基金：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Pure Alpha, which focuses on active investment strategy</li>  <li>Pure Alpha Major Markets, which targets a subset of opportunities that the Pure Alpha fund invests in</li>  <li>All Weather, which uses an asset allocation strategy</li>  <li>Optimal Portfolio, which combines aspects of the All Weather fund with active management</li> </ol> As of March 27, 2021, the fund had $154 billion under management.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>纯阿尔法，专注于主动投资策略</li><li>Pure Alpha 主要市场，针对 Pure Alpha 基金投资的机会子集</li><li>使用资产配置策略的全天候</li><li>最佳投资组合，将全天候基金的各个方面与主动管理相结合</li></ol>截至2021年3月27日，该基金管理着1540亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Renaissance Technologies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文艺复兴技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Renaissance Technologies is a New York-based quantitative hedge fund that uses mathematical and statistical methods to uncover technical indicators that drive its automated trading strategies. Renaissance applies these strategies to U.S. and international equities, debt instruments,futures contracts,forward contractsandforeign exchange.</p><p><blockquote>Renaissance Technologies 是一家总部位于纽约的量化对冲基金，使用数学和统计方法来发现驱动其自动化交易策略的技术指标。Renaissance 将这些策略应用于美国和国际股票、债务工具、期货合约、远期合约和外汇。</blockquote></p><p> As of June 3, 2021, the fund had $130 billion under management.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月3日，该基金管理着1300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mathematician Jim Simons founded Renaissance Technologies in 1982.<i>Forbes</i>lists Simons as the 68th wealthiest person in the world as of Jan. 13, 2021, worth $23.5 billion.&nbsp;Mathematician Peter Brown is the current chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>数学家吉姆·西蒙斯于1982年创立了文艺复兴技术公司。<i>福布斯</i>截至2021年1月13日，西蒙斯是全球第68位最富有的人，价值235亿美元。数学家彼得·布朗是现任首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Man Group</b></p><p><blockquote><b>人组</b></blockquote></p><p> This British hedge fund has more than 230 years of trading experience. It started in 1784 as an exclusive supplier of rum to the Royal Navy, later getting into the sugar, coffee and cocoa trading business.</p><p><blockquote>这家英国对冲基金拥有超过230年的交易经验。它始于1784年，是皇家海军朗姆酒的独家供应商，后来进入糖、咖啡和可可贸易业务。</blockquote></p><p> As of December 31, 2020, Man Group had $123.6 billion in assets under management.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年12月31日，Man集团管理的资产为1236亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Elliott Management</b></p><p><blockquote><b>埃利奥特管理公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Elliot Management describes its investment mandate as \"extremely broad\" and encompassing of almost every asset type:distressed securities, equities, hedging andarbitragepositions, commodities, real estate-related securities, etc.&nbsp;In August 2019, Elliot acquired book retailer Barnes &amp; Noble.&nbsp;It had earlier acquired British bookseller Waterstones.&nbsp;The company is based in New York and was founded by Paul Singer in 1977.</p><p><blockquote>Elliot Management 将其投资授权描述为 “极其广泛”，几乎涵盖所有资产类型：不良证券、股票、对冲和套利头寸、大宗商品、房地产相关证券等。2019 年 8 月，Elliot 收购了图书零售商 Barnes&amp;Noble。此前，它收购了英国书商 Waterstones。该公司总部位于纽约，由 Paul Singer 于 1977 年创立。</blockquote></p><p> As of December 31, 2019, Elliot had $73.5 billion in assets under management and $40 billion of net assets under management on a discretionary basis.</p><p><blockquote>截至2019年12月31日，Elliot管理的资产为735亿美元，在可自由支配的基础上管理的净资产为400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Two Sigma Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>两西格玛投资</b></blockquote></p><p> Two Sigma Investments is based in New York and was founded by John Overdeck and David Siegel in April 2002. The company uses quantitative analysis to build mathematical strategies that rely on historical price patterns and other data.</p><p><blockquote>Two Sigma Investments总部位于纽约，由John Overdeck和David Siegel于2002年4月创立。该公司使用定量分析来建立依赖于历史价格模式和其他数据的数学策略。</blockquote></p><p> As of March 31, 2021, Two Sigma Investments had $68.9 billion under management.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年3月31日，Two Sigma Investments管理着689亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Millennium Management</b></p><p><blockquote><b>千禧管理</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Millennium Management is based in New York and was founded in 1989. The company offers discretionary advisory services to private funds.</p><p><blockquote>千禧管理总部位于纽约，成立于1989年。该公司为私人基金提供全权委托咨询服务。</blockquote></p><p> As of December 31, 2019, Millennium had $42 billion under management.</p><p><blockquote>截至2019年12月31日，千禧管理着420亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is lead by Chair Israel Englander, who founded Millennium with $35 million in capital following a career as a floor broker, trader, and options specialist on theAmerican Stock Exchange.</p><p><blockquote>该公司由董事长 Israel Englander 领导，他在美国证券交易所担任场内经纪人、交易员和期权专家后，以 3500 万美元的资本创立了 Millennium。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Davidson Kempner Capital Management</b></p><p><blockquote><b>戴维森肯普纳资本管理公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Davidson Kempner Capital Management is based in New York and has affiliate offices in London, Hong Kong and Dublin. The company began managing capital for investors in 1987. It focuses onbankruptcies, convertible arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed investments, event-driven equities andrestructuringsituations.</p><p><blockquote>Davidson Kempner Capital Management 总部位于纽约，在伦敦、香港和都柏林设有附属办事处。该公司于1987年开始为投资者管理资本。它专注于破产、可转换套利、合并套利、不良投资、事件驱动的股票和重组情况。</blockquote></p><p> As of January 31, 2021, Davidson Kempner had $34.8 billion under management and its net assets under management were $33.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年1月31日，Davidson Kempner管理着348亿美元，其管理的净资产为331亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Citadel Advisors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>城堡顾问</b></blockquote></p><p> Citadel Advisors is based in Chicago and focuses on equities, fixed income and macro, commodities, credit and quantitative strategies.</p><p><blockquote>Citadel Advisors 总部位于芝加哥，专注于股票、固定收益和宏观、商品、信贷和量化策略。</blockquote></p><p> As of March 31, 2021, Citadel had $33.1 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年3月31日，Citadel管理着331亿美元的资产。</blockquote></p><p> In 1987, founder Kenneth Griffin began trading from his dorm room as a 19-year-old sophomore at Harvard University. He founded Citadel in 1990.</p><p><blockquote>1987 年，创始人肯尼斯·格里芬 (Kenneth Griffin) 在哈佛大学 19 岁的大二学生时，开始在宿舍里进行交易。他于1990年创立了Citadel。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>World's Top 10 Hedge Fund Firms<blockquote>全球十大对冲基金公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWorld's Top 10 Hedge Fund Firms<blockquote>全球十大对冲基金公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Investopedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hedge fundsare alternative investments that use a variety of methods such as leveragedderivatives, short-selling, and other speculative strategies to earn a return that outperforms the broader market. Hedge funds invest in domestic and international markets alike. They typically impose $1 million minimums and targethigh-net-worth individuals,pension funds, and institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>对冲基金是另类投资，使用杠杆衍生品、卖空和其他投机策略等各种方法来获得优于大盘的回报。对冲基金投资于国内和国际市场。他们通常规定 100 万美元的最低限额，并针对高净值个人、养老基金和机构投资者。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, hedge funds invariably carry higher risk than traditional investments. They are not subject to the same regulations asmutual fundsand may not be required to file reports with theU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC).</p><p><blockquote>因此，对冲基金总是比传统投资承担更高的风险。它们不受与共同基金相同的法规约束，也可能不需要向美国提交报告。美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。</blockquote></p><p> The following 10 hedge fund firms dominate the space, based on totalassets under management(AUM) as of June 2021.</p><p><blockquote>根据截至2021年6月的管理资产总额（AUM），以下10家对冲基金公司在该领域占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The World’s Top 10 Hedge Fund Firms</b><b>Blackrock Advisors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球十大对冲基金公司</b><b>贝莱德顾问</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Blackrock Advisors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝莱德顾问</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackRock (BLK) is a New York-based investment manager that manages trillions in assets. The largest BlackRock entity, BlackRock Fund Advisors, has been in operation since 1984 and oversees $1.9 trillion in assets.</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德 (BLK) 是一家总部位于纽约的投资管理公司，管理着数万亿美元的资产。贝莱德最大的实体贝莱德基金顾问公司自1984年开始运营，管理着1.9万亿美元的资产。</blockquote></p><p> BlackRock Financial Management was founded in 1994 and oversees $2.25 trillion. BlackRock Advisors, its internal hedge fund, started in 1994 and now handles $789.57 billion.</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德金融管理公司成立于1994年，管理着2.25万亿美元的资产。其内部对冲基金贝莱德顾问公司成立于 1994 年，目前管理着 7,895.7 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AQR Capital Management</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AQR资本管理</b></blockquote></p><p> AQR Capital Management is based in Greenwich, Conn., and usesquantitative analysisto develop financial models focused on value and momentum investing. ACR implements its strategies via mutual funds, a type of mutual offered in Europe known asUndertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities, and sponsored funds and managed accounts.</p><p><blockquote>AQR Capital Management总部位于康涅狄格州格林威治，使用定量分析开发专注于价值和动量投资的金融模型。ACR 通过共同基金（一种在欧洲提供的共同基金，称为可转让证券集体投资企业）以及发起基金和管理账户来实施其战略。</blockquote></p><p> As of March 31, 2020, AQR had $164billion under management.&nbsp;It also earned advisory feeds on another $224.8 billion in assets.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月31日，AQR管理着1640亿美元。它还获得了另外2248亿美元资产的咨询反馈。</blockquote></p><p> Cliff Asness founded the company along with partners John Liew, Robert Krail, and David Kabiller. The four had worked together on a hedge fund at Goldman Sachs. AQR launched its Absolute Return fund in August 1998, the same monthLong Term Capital Managementimploded.</p><p><blockquote>Cliff Asness 与合伙人 John Liew、Robert Krail 和 David Kabiller 一起创立了该公司。四人曾在高盛的一家对冲基金合作。AQR 于 1998 年 8 月推出了绝对回报基金，同月长期资本管理公司成立。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bridgewater Associates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>桥水联合公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Bridgewater Associates is based in Westport, Conn., and provides services to pension funds, foreign governments, central banks,university endowments, charitable foundations, and other institutional investors.6Co-chair and co-chief investment officer Ray Dalio founded the firm in 1975 from his two-bedroom New York apartment.</p><p><blockquote>Bridgewater Associates 总部位于康涅狄格州韦斯特波特，为养老基金、外国政府、中央银行、大学捐赠基金、慈善基金会和其他机构投资者提供服务。6联席主席兼联席首席投资官雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 于 1975 年在纽约的两居室公寓里创立了该公司。</blockquote></p><p> The company offers four main funds:</p><p><blockquote>该公司提供四种主要基金：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Pure Alpha, which focuses on active investment strategy</li>  <li>Pure Alpha Major Markets, which targets a subset of opportunities that the Pure Alpha fund invests in</li>  <li>All Weather, which uses an asset allocation strategy</li>  <li>Optimal Portfolio, which combines aspects of the All Weather fund with active management</li> </ol> As of March 27, 2021, the fund had $154 billion under management.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>纯阿尔法，专注于主动投资策略</li><li>Pure Alpha 主要市场，针对 Pure Alpha 基金投资的机会子集</li><li>使用资产配置策略的全天候</li><li>最佳投资组合，将全天候基金的各个方面与主动管理相结合</li></ol>截至2021年3月27日，该基金管理着1540亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Renaissance Technologies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文艺复兴技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Renaissance Technologies is a New York-based quantitative hedge fund that uses mathematical and statistical methods to uncover technical indicators that drive its automated trading strategies. Renaissance applies these strategies to U.S. and international equities, debt instruments,futures contracts,forward contractsandforeign exchange.</p><p><blockquote>Renaissance Technologies 是一家总部位于纽约的量化对冲基金，使用数学和统计方法来发现驱动其自动化交易策略的技术指标。Renaissance 将这些策略应用于美国和国际股票、债务工具、期货合约、远期合约和外汇。</blockquote></p><p> As of June 3, 2021, the fund had $130 billion under management.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月3日，该基金管理着1300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mathematician Jim Simons founded Renaissance Technologies in 1982.<i>Forbes</i>lists Simons as the 68th wealthiest person in the world as of Jan. 13, 2021, worth $23.5 billion.&nbsp;Mathematician Peter Brown is the current chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>数学家吉姆·西蒙斯于1982年创立了文艺复兴技术公司。<i>福布斯</i>截至2021年1月13日，西蒙斯是全球第68位最富有的人，价值235亿美元。数学家彼得·布朗是现任首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Man Group</b></p><p><blockquote><b>人组</b></blockquote></p><p> This British hedge fund has more than 230 years of trading experience. It started in 1784 as an exclusive supplier of rum to the Royal Navy, later getting into the sugar, coffee and cocoa trading business.</p><p><blockquote>这家英国对冲基金拥有超过230年的交易经验。它始于1784年，是皇家海军朗姆酒的独家供应商，后来进入糖、咖啡和可可贸易业务。</blockquote></p><p> As of December 31, 2020, Man Group had $123.6 billion in assets under management.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年12月31日，Man集团管理的资产为1236亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Elliott Management</b></p><p><blockquote><b>埃利奥特管理公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Elliot Management describes its investment mandate as \"extremely broad\" and encompassing of almost every asset type:distressed securities, equities, hedging andarbitragepositions, commodities, real estate-related securities, etc.&nbsp;In August 2019, Elliot acquired book retailer Barnes &amp; Noble.&nbsp;It had earlier acquired British bookseller Waterstones.&nbsp;The company is based in New York and was founded by Paul Singer in 1977.</p><p><blockquote>Elliot Management 将其投资授权描述为 “极其广泛”，几乎涵盖所有资产类型：不良证券、股票、对冲和套利头寸、大宗商品、房地产相关证券等。2019 年 8 月，Elliot 收购了图书零售商 Barnes&amp;Noble。此前，它收购了英国书商 Waterstones。该公司总部位于纽约，由 Paul Singer 于 1977 年创立。</blockquote></p><p> As of December 31, 2019, Elliot had $73.5 billion in assets under management and $40 billion of net assets under management on a discretionary basis.</p><p><blockquote>截至2019年12月31日，Elliot管理的资产为735亿美元，在可自由支配的基础上管理的净资产为400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Two Sigma Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>两西格玛投资</b></blockquote></p><p> Two Sigma Investments is based in New York and was founded by John Overdeck and David Siegel in April 2002. The company uses quantitative analysis to build mathematical strategies that rely on historical price patterns and other data.</p><p><blockquote>Two Sigma Investments总部位于纽约，由John Overdeck和David Siegel于2002年4月创立。该公司使用定量分析来建立依赖于历史价格模式和其他数据的数学策略。</blockquote></p><p> As of March 31, 2021, Two Sigma Investments had $68.9 billion under management.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年3月31日，Two Sigma Investments管理着689亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Millennium Management</b></p><p><blockquote><b>千禧管理</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Millennium Management is based in New York and was founded in 1989. The company offers discretionary advisory services to private funds.</p><p><blockquote>千禧管理总部位于纽约，成立于1989年。该公司为私人基金提供全权委托咨询服务。</blockquote></p><p> As of December 31, 2019, Millennium had $42 billion under management.</p><p><blockquote>截至2019年12月31日，千禧管理着420亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is lead by Chair Israel Englander, who founded Millennium with $35 million in capital following a career as a floor broker, trader, and options specialist on theAmerican Stock Exchange.</p><p><blockquote>该公司由董事长 Israel Englander 领导，他在美国证券交易所担任场内经纪人、交易员和期权专家后，以 3500 万美元的资本创立了 Millennium。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Davidson Kempner Capital Management</b></p><p><blockquote><b>戴维森肯普纳资本管理公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Davidson Kempner Capital Management is based in New York and has affiliate offices in London, Hong Kong and Dublin. The company began managing capital for investors in 1987. It focuses onbankruptcies, convertible arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed investments, event-driven equities andrestructuringsituations.</p><p><blockquote>Davidson Kempner Capital Management 总部位于纽约，在伦敦、香港和都柏林设有附属办事处。该公司于1987年开始为投资者管理资本。它专注于破产、可转换套利、合并套利、不良投资、事件驱动的股票和重组情况。</blockquote></p><p> As of January 31, 2021, Davidson Kempner had $34.8 billion under management and its net assets under management were $33.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年1月31日，Davidson Kempner管理着348亿美元，其管理的净资产为331亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Citadel Advisors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>城堡顾问</b></blockquote></p><p> Citadel Advisors is based in Chicago and focuses on equities, fixed income and macro, commodities, credit and quantitative strategies.</p><p><blockquote>Citadel Advisors 总部位于芝加哥，专注于股票、固定收益和宏观、商品、信贷和量化策略。</blockquote></p><p> As of March 31, 2021, Citadel had $33.1 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年3月31日，Citadel管理着331亿美元的资产。</blockquote></p><p> In 1987, founder Kenneth Griffin began trading from his dorm room as a 19-year-old sophomore at Harvard University. He founded Citadel in 1990.</p><p><blockquote>1987 年，创始人肯尼斯·格里芬 (Kenneth Griffin) 在哈佛大学 19 岁的大二学生时，开始在宿舍里进行交易。他于1990年创立了Citadel。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/011515/worlds-top-10-hedge-fund-firms.asp?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral\">Investopedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/011515/worlds-top-10-hedge-fund-firms.asp?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139439438","content_text":"Hedge fundsare alternative investments that use a variety of methods such as leveragedderivatives, short-selling, and other speculative strategies to earn a return that outperforms the broader market. Hedge funds invest in domestic and international markets alike. They typically impose $1 million minimums and targethigh-net-worth individuals,pension funds, and institutional investors.\nAs a result, hedge funds invariably carry higher risk than traditional investments. They are not subject to the same regulations asmutual fundsand may not be required to file reports with theU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC).\nThe following 10 hedge fund firms dominate the space, based on totalassets under management(AUM) as of June 2021.\nThe World’s Top 10 Hedge Fund FirmsBlackrock Advisors\nBlackrock Advisors\nBlackRock (BLK) is a New York-based investment manager that manages trillions in assets. The largest BlackRock entity, BlackRock Fund Advisors, has been in operation since 1984 and oversees $1.9 trillion in assets.\nBlackRock Financial Management was founded in 1994 and oversees $2.25 trillion. BlackRock Advisors, its internal hedge fund, started in 1994 and now handles $789.57 billion.\nAQR Capital Management\nAQR Capital Management is based in Greenwich, Conn., and usesquantitative analysisto develop financial models focused on value and momentum investing. ACR implements its strategies via mutual funds, a type of mutual offered in Europe known asUndertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities, and sponsored funds and managed accounts.\nAs of March 31, 2020, AQR had $164billion under management. It also earned advisory feeds on another $224.8 billion in assets.\nCliff Asness founded the company along with partners John Liew, Robert Krail, and David Kabiller. The four had worked together on a hedge fund at Goldman Sachs. AQR launched its Absolute Return fund in August 1998, the same monthLong Term Capital Managementimploded.\nBridgewater Associates\nBridgewater Associates is based in Westport, Conn., and provides services to pension funds, foreign governments, central banks,university endowments, charitable foundations, and other institutional investors.6Co-chair and co-chief investment officer Ray Dalio founded the firm in 1975 from his two-bedroom New York apartment.\nThe company offers four main funds:\n\nPure Alpha, which focuses on active investment strategy\nPure Alpha Major Markets, which targets a subset of opportunities that the Pure Alpha fund invests in\nAll Weather, which uses an asset allocation strategy\nOptimal Portfolio, which combines aspects of the All Weather fund with active management\n\nAs of March 27, 2021, the fund had $154 billion under management.\nRenaissance Technologies\nRenaissance Technologies is a New York-based quantitative hedge fund that uses mathematical and statistical methods to uncover technical indicators that drive its automated trading strategies. Renaissance applies these strategies to U.S. and international equities, debt instruments,futures contracts,forward contractsandforeign exchange.\nAs of June 3, 2021, the fund had $130 billion under management.\nMathematician Jim Simons founded Renaissance Technologies in 1982.Forbeslists Simons as the 68th wealthiest person in the world as of Jan. 13, 2021, worth $23.5 billion. Mathematician Peter Brown is the current chief executive.\nMan Group\nThis British hedge fund has more than 230 years of trading experience. It started in 1784 as an exclusive supplier of rum to the Royal Navy, later getting into the sugar, coffee and cocoa trading business.\nAs of December 31, 2020, Man Group had $123.6 billion in assets under management. \nElliott Management\nElliot Management describes its investment mandate as \"extremely broad\" and encompassing of almost every asset type:distressed securities, equities, hedging andarbitragepositions, commodities, real estate-related securities, etc. In August 2019, Elliot acquired book retailer Barnes & Noble. It had earlier acquired British bookseller Waterstones. The company is based in New York and was founded by Paul Singer in 1977.\nAs of December 31, 2019, Elliot had $73.5 billion in assets under management and $40 billion of net assets under management on a discretionary basis.\nTwo Sigma Investments\nTwo Sigma Investments is based in New York and was founded by John Overdeck and David Siegel in April 2002. The company uses quantitative analysis to build mathematical strategies that rely on historical price patterns and other data.\nAs of March 31, 2021, Two Sigma Investments had $68.9 billion under management.\nMillennium Management\nMillennium Management is based in New York and was founded in 1989. The company offers discretionary advisory services to private funds.\nAs of December 31, 2019, Millennium had $42 billion under management.\nThe company is lead by Chair Israel Englander, who founded Millennium with $35 million in capital following a career as a floor broker, trader, and options specialist on theAmerican Stock Exchange.\nDavidson Kempner Capital Management\nDavidson Kempner Capital Management is based in New York and has affiliate offices in London, Hong Kong and Dublin. The company began managing capital for investors in 1987. It focuses onbankruptcies, convertible arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed investments, event-driven equities andrestructuringsituations.\nAs of January 31, 2021, Davidson Kempner had $34.8 billion under management and its net assets under management were $33.1 billion.\nCitadel Advisors\nCitadel Advisors is based in Chicago and focuses on equities, fixed income and macro, commodities, credit and quantitative strategies.\nAs of March 31, 2021, Citadel had $33.1 billion in assets under management.\nIn 1987, founder Kenneth Griffin began trading from his dorm room as a 19-year-old sophomore at Harvard University. He founded Citadel in 1990.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121241043,"gmtCreate":1624467528082,"gmtModify":1631892558910,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMC to the moon","listText":"AMC to the moon","text":"AMC to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121241043","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121243247,"gmtCreate":1624467499889,"gmtModify":1631892558914,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121243247","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）中国教育股周三早盘多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为 EDU 是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>第一季度末，Insider Monkey 追踪的对冲基金中共有 45 家看好该股，较一季度前变化了 5%。下面，您可以查看过去 23 个季度对冲基金对 EDU 情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历通常的起伏，存在一个值得注意的对冲基金经理的“上层”，他们正在大幅增加持仓（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由比亚迪1资本合伙公司持有，该公司报告称截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是 GQG Partners，头寸为 3.198 亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括 Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital 和 Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital 将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其 13F 投资组合的 42.13%。麒麟管理公司也相对非常看好该股，将其 13F 股票投资组合的 18.73% 指定给 EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣飙升，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由 David Fear 管理的 Thunderbird Partners 在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的职位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners 已向该公司投资 1670 万美元。Eduardo Costa’sCalixto Global Investors在本季度还对该股进行了1470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金有Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的sOld Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括堪萨斯城南方航空 (NYSE:KSU)、纽柯公司 (NYSE:NUE)、佛朗哥-内华达公司 (NYSE:FNV)、Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV)、哈特福德金融服务集团公司 (NYSE:HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和 Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都与 EDU 的市值最接近。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有 32.1 家对冲基金持有看涨头寸，投资于这些股票的平均金额为 12.39 亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这个数字是21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是该表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的，只有 12 个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对 EDU 的总体对冲基金情绪得分为 70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票会获得更高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在囤积的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的 5 只股票在 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率为 95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出 40 个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU 远不如这 5 只股票受欢迎，押注 EDU 的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自 3 月底（截至 6/18）以来的回报率为 -45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021 财年第二季度收入和 XRS online 增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国K12在线教育市场规模达890亿元，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资额自2016年以来持续下降。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们并不认为该公司能够应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又称明日高级学习）（TAL）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务部门。该公司以优质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，在全球范围内提供服务。成立于2003年，2010年在纽约证券交易所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方（EDU）竞争。可以说，两家公司都引领着中国的教育行业；首先，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在国内共有98个城市和1个国外城市（多伦多）都有活跃的业务。好未来在中国总共90个城市开展业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着快速增长国家的家长们越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>良好的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来 2021 年第二季度的财务业绩并不令人印象深刻，该公司盈利 11 亿美元（同比增长 20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为 11.2 亿美元。不过，该公司公布本季度每股收益为 0.08 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 0.05 美元高出 0.03 美元。由于小学教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成巨轮投资的猿辅导和作业帮等本地纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非 GAAP 营业利润率从 2020 年第二季度的 9.8% 降至 -1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>近五六年来，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的涌入，中国的在线K12教育行业得到了快速发展。二零二零年，中国K12在线教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育的渗透率约为15%。随着2020年初新冠肺炎的袭击，在线教育的优势非常明显。在线K12教育的渗透率在2020年3月达到顶峰。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但有明显的趋势。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域一直表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871个学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648个培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情证明的原因。为了控制 COVID-19 的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用，但它们无法与 VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用的收入贡献从 2020 财年第二季度的 17% 增加到 2021 财年第二季度的 26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务构成阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童是不允许接种的。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或基于课堂的辅导和培训时，TAL 的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>好未来自大约九年前上市以来一直保持稳定增长。此后，收入增长了约 30 倍，复合年增长率为 45.7%，平均毛利率高达 50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月份的上一财年的业绩受到 COVID-19 引发的限制措施的重大影响，这些限制措施在中国很早就开始了。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。结果，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而上年同期为44.1%。学生入学总数仍在上升，同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资较少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量一直在减少。与好未来相比，新东方自2018年以来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔大幅下降到2020年的只有两笔。这两项投资是在互动学习SaaS平台UMU和在线儿童数学辅导应用上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的进入</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比激增 64%，占总收入的 22%，同比增长 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为越来越多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也涉足在线教育业务。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务才能维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，公司的核心竞争力在于大数据、直播智能等技术在中国在线教育行业的深度应用。就专有的基于学费的技术而言，该公司没有在研发上投入太多资金。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买师资和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 4 月，好未来承认员工不当行为导致销售数据虚增，瑞幸咖啡 (OTCPK:LKNCY) 3.1 亿美元欺诈后进一步阻碍了市场信心，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>两年前，浑水公司发布了一份报告，称该公司是“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。报告称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务报表中存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈更难量化，但我们的研究表明，欺诈性多报了公司约 25% 至 30% 的收入”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资TAL教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司无法应对即将到来的行业内激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强线上业务，与新来者和老牌企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬而未决保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（前身为跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利能力。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管电动汽车/销量倍数有折扣，但我会推迟启动头寸，因为目前正在等待政策悬而未决的清除。</li></ul>刚刚更名的高途集团（GOTU/跟谁学）最近举办的投资者活动对其运营和高层管理人员的战略进行了有趣的介绍，及时了解了长期前景。特别是，跟谁学强调其持续关注卓越的教学、服务质量和技术投资是关键的差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期的更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，它也可能带来更健康的行业动态，这也应该会推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革的悬而未决使其难以转为看涨，但跟谁学的贴现 c.3 倍电动汽车/销售倍数看起来也要求不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益增长的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，跟谁学在2020年第四季度和2021年第一季度的流量获取有所减少，大幅下降。2021 年 1 月至 2 月的销售线索成本降低 20%（低于 2020 年 11 月至 12 月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部（MOE）最近的一次采访引发了在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指导低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道以抵消压力，这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低 50% 以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这方面，跟谁学并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举措，从在线一对一和小班玩家，如51talk（COE）、VIPKID和新东方子公司Koolearn，其大班覆盖范围已达到约100个城市。同样，在线大班课外辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系扩展到线下收购，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思最近几个月还与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等私营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会对近期前景造成负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个主要增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，随着人们越来越多地寻求在不确定的就业市场中提升技能，成人教育也成为一个潜在的增长机会。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上花费更多，以便更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学上市招股说明书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务有望成为收入同比增长+100%的关键增长动力。考虑到成人教育在 2020 财年占跟谁学收入的 10% 以上，我预计随着时间的推移，这一贡献将继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课外辅导，因为入学/导师比例更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线法规仍然是关键问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线法规令人担忧，可能的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制，以及对机构和教师提出更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整个行业的发展，让在线课外辅导玩家能够将更多的资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏明确性，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也会有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善企业的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量，并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，跟谁学有一个c。人民币82亿元现金头寸（包括流动性投资），应能抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。随着跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。虽然跟谁学的股价因Archegos资本事件和政策担忧而受到影响，但其远期电动汽车/销售倍数已大幅下降至c。3 倍，以及与 TAL 和 EDU 等同行相比不断扩大的相对折扣可能意味着负面影响已被定价。然而，在政策悬而未决的问题被解除之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）中国教育股周三早盘多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为 EDU 是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>第一季度末，Insider Monkey 追踪的对冲基金中共有 45 家看好该股，较一季度前变化了 5%。下面，您可以查看过去 23 个季度对冲基金对 EDU 情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历通常的起伏，存在一个值得注意的对冲基金经理的“上层”，他们正在大幅增加持仓（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由比亚迪1资本合伙公司持有，该公司报告称截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是 GQG Partners，头寸为 3.198 亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括 Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital 和 Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital 将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其 13F 投资组合的 42.13%。麒麟管理公司也相对非常看好该股，将其 13F 股票投资组合的 18.73% 指定给 EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣飙升，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由 David Fear 管理的 Thunderbird Partners 在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的职位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners 已向该公司投资 1670 万美元。Eduardo Costa’sCalixto Global Investors在本季度还对该股进行了1470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金有Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的sOld Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括堪萨斯城南方航空 (NYSE:KSU)、纽柯公司 (NYSE:NUE)、佛朗哥-内华达公司 (NYSE:FNV)、Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV)、哈特福德金融服务集团公司 (NYSE:HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和 Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都与 EDU 的市值最接近。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有 32.1 家对冲基金持有看涨头寸，投资于这些股票的平均金额为 12.39 亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这个数字是21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是该表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的，只有 12 个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对 EDU 的总体对冲基金情绪得分为 70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票会获得更高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在囤积的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的 5 只股票在 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率为 95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出 40 个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU 远不如这 5 只股票受欢迎，押注 EDU 的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自 3 月底（截至 6/18）以来的回报率为 -45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021 财年第二季度收入和 XRS online 增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国K12在线教育市场规模达890亿元，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资额自2016年以来持续下降。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们并不认为该公司能够应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又称明日高级学习）（TAL）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务部门。该公司以优质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，在全球范围内提供服务。成立于2003年，2010年在纽约证券交易所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方（EDU）竞争。可以说，两家公司都引领着中国的教育行业；首先，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在国内共有98个城市和1个国外城市（多伦多）都有活跃的业务。好未来在中国总共90个城市开展业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着快速增长国家的家长们越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>良好的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来 2021 年第二季度的财务业绩并不令人印象深刻，该公司盈利 11 亿美元（同比增长 20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为 11.2 亿美元。不过，该公司公布本季度每股收益为 0.08 美元，比分析师普遍预期的 0.05 美元高出 0.03 美元。由于小学教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成巨轮投资的猿辅导和作业帮等本地纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非 GAAP 营业利润率从 2020 年第二季度的 9.8% 降至 -1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>近五六年来，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的涌入，中国的在线K12教育行业得到了快速发展。二零二零年，中国K12在线教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育的渗透率约为15%。随着2020年初新冠肺炎的袭击，在线教育的优势非常明显。在线K12教育的渗透率在2020年3月达到顶峰。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但有明显的趋势。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域一直表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871个学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648个培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情证明的原因。为了控制 COVID-19 的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用，但它们无法与 VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用的收入贡献从 2020 财年第二季度的 17% 增加到 2021 财年第二季度的 26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务构成阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童是不允许接种的。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或基于课堂的辅导和培训时，TAL 的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>好未来自大约九年前上市以来一直保持稳定增长。此后，收入增长了约 30 倍，复合年增长率为 45.7%，平均毛利率高达 50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2 月份的上一财年的业绩受到 COVID-19 引发的限制措施的重大影响，这些限制措施在中国很早就开始了。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。结果，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而上年同期为44.1%。学生入学总数仍在上升，同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资较少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量一直在减少。与好未来相比，新东方自2018年以来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔大幅下降到2020年的只有两笔。这两项投资是在互动学习SaaS平台UMU和在线儿童数学辅导应用上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的进入</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比激增 64%，占总收入的 22%，同比增长 4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为越来越多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也涉足在线教育业务。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务才能维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，公司的核心竞争力在于大数据、直播智能等技术在中国在线教育行业的深度应用。就专有的基于学费的技术而言，该公司没有在研发上投入太多资金。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买师资和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 4 月，好未来承认员工不当行为导致销售数据虚增，瑞幸咖啡 (OTCPK:LKNCY) 3.1 亿美元欺诈后进一步阻碍了市场信心，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>两年前，浑水公司发布了一份报告，称该公司是“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。报告称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务报表中存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈更难量化，但我们的研究表明，欺诈性多报了公司约 25% 至 30% 的收入”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资TAL教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司无法应对即将到来的行业内激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强线上业务，与新来者和老牌企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬而未决保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（前身为跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利能力。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管电动汽车/销量倍数有折扣，但我会推迟启动头寸，因为目前正在等待政策悬而未决的清除。</li></ul>刚刚更名的高途集团（GOTU/跟谁学）最近举办的投资者活动对其运营和高层管理人员的战略进行了有趣的介绍，及时了解了长期前景。特别是，跟谁学强调其持续关注卓越的教学、服务质量和技术投资是关键的差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期的更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，它也可能带来更健康的行业动态，这也应该会推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革的悬而未决使其难以转为看涨，但跟谁学的贴现 c.3 倍电动汽车/销售倍数看起来也要求不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益增长的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，跟谁学在2020年第四季度和2021年第一季度的流量获取有所减少，大幅下降。2021 年 1 月至 2 月的销售线索成本降低 20%（低于 2020 年 11 月至 12 月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部（MOE）最近的一次采访引发了在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指导低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道以抵消压力，这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低 50% 以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这方面，跟谁学并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举措，从在线一对一和小班玩家，如51talk（COE）、VIPKID和新东方子公司Koolearn，其大班覆盖范围已达到约100个城市。同样，在线大班课外辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系扩展到线下收购，好未来教育（TAL）子公司学而思最近几个月还与联想（OTCPK：LNVGY）合作。随着作业帮等私营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会对近期前景造成负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个主要增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，随着人们越来越多地寻求在不确定的就业市场中提升技能，成人教育也成为一个潜在的增长机会。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上花费更多，以便更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学上市招股说明书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务有望成为收入同比增长+100%的关键增长动力。考虑到成人教育在 2020 财年占跟谁学收入的 10% 以上，我预计随着时间的推移，这一贡献将继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课外辅导，因为入学/导师比例更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线法规仍然是关键问题</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线法规令人担忧，可能的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制，以及对机构和教师提出更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整个行业的发展，让在线课外辅导玩家能够将更多的资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏明确性，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也会有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善企业的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量，并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，跟谁学有一个c。人民币82亿元现金头寸（包括流动性投资），应能抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。随着跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。虽然跟谁学的股价因Archegos资本事件和政策担忧而受到影响，但其远期电动汽车/销售倍数已大幅下降至c。3 倍，以及与 TAL 和 EDU 等同行相比不断扩大的相对折扣可能意味着负面影响已被定价。然而，在政策悬而未决的问题被解除之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TAL":"好未来","GOTU":"高途","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOTU":0.9,"EDU":0.9,"TAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123178545,"gmtCreate":1624413837187,"gmtModify":1631892558918,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Nice","listText":"&nbsp;Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123178545","repostId":"2145061761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123178628,"gmtCreate":1624413827464,"gmtModify":1631892558917,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123178628","repostId":"1189547174","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189547174","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624413006,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189547174?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:50","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Big Oil CEOs Join Traders in Seeing Possibility of $100 Oil<blockquote>大型石油公司首席执行官与交易员一起看到油价达到 100 美元的可能性</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189547174","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The bosses of some of the world’s biggest oil companies said crude prices are likely ","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- The bosses of some of the world’s biggest oil companies said crude prices are likely to keep rising because a lack of investment will curtail future supply. The chief executive officers...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--世界上一些最大的石油公司的老板表示，原油价格可能会继续上涨，因为缺乏投资将减少未来的供应。首席执行官们……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big Oil CEOs Join Traders in Seeing Possibility of $100 Oil<blockquote>大型石油公司首席执行官与交易员一起看到油价达到 100 美元的可能性</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig Oil CEOs Join Traders in Seeing Possibility of $100 Oil<blockquote>大型石油公司首席执行官与交易员一起看到油价达到 100 美元的可能性</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- The bosses of some of the world’s biggest oil companies said crude prices are likely to keep rising because a lack of investment will curtail future supply. The chief executive officers...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--世界上一些最大的石油公司的老板表示，原油价格可能会继续上涨，因为缺乏投资将减少未来的供应。首席执行官们……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189547174","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The bosses of some of the world’s biggest oil companies said crude prices are likely to keep rising because a lack of investment will curtail future supply.\nThe chief executive officers of Royal Dutch Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE joined major commodity traders and banks in predicting that oil could go as high as $100 a barrel, although they also said volatile markets could drive prices back down again.\nThe lack of investment is “going to exacerbate supply and demand tightness as the economies pick back up again, and then in time we’ll see supply pick up and rebalance,” Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Darren Woods said at the Qatar Economic Forum Tuesday. But “in the shorter term probably higher prices” are more likely.\nTrading house Trafigura Group said oil could top $100 a barrel over the next year. Bank of America Corp. also forecast this week that prices could jump to that level and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it doesn’t rule it out. Oil has climbed 44% this year as widespread vaccinations increase mobility and boost demand. Benchmark Brent crude was little changed at 2:55 p.m. in New York at $74.90 a barrel.\nGlobal oil markets had one of the most turbulent years in history last year with the coronavirus pandemic sending prices crashing. But economies in the West are growing again, roads in Europe and the U.S. are starting to fill up, and more Americans are flying. While that could drive prices higher in the near term, the energy transition means oil consumption could start to plateau and eventually decline in the longer term.\nThe energy shift means there hasn’t been enough investment in oil and gas projects and that could push prices higher, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said at the same event. BP Plc CEO Bernard Looney said earlier Tuesday that rising crude is helping the company’s energy transition plans and generating better cash flow and returns for shareholders.\nThere’s “quite a chance” of reaching $100 a barrel, “but we could see again in coming years some low prices,” TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said. “We’ve been accustomed to volatility.”\nThe Qatar Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Investment Promotion Agency Qatar and Media City Qatar are underwriters of the Qatar Economic Forum, Powered by Bloomberg.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":126967087,"gmtCreate":1624542539549,"gmtModify":1631892558905,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job","listText":"Good job","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126967087","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转--这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫情大趋势结束的 5 个原因。</b>COVID-19 大流行期间最大的投资故事之一是以 “郊区避难所 ”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装卖场再到家具家居用品商家，不少顶尖表现者都符合这一口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的先锋非必需消费品指数基金 ETF VCR 为例，该基金上涨 0.66%，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 3 月飙升 90% 以上。这得益于家装股 Lowe's LOW（-0.30%）和 Home Depot HD（-0.33%）等成分股，以及 TJX TJX（-0.08%）等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名字的表现开始落后。事实上，自 4 月 1 日以来，我们已经看到这三只股票都小幅飘红，即使标普500 SPX 指数同期上涨了约 6%，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些恐惧可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的家居类股票即将 “大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些大牌 “郊区 ”行业仍相对稳定，但边缘地区已经出现了麻烦的迹象。Century Communities CCS（-0.34%）和Dream Finders Homes DFH（-2.55%）是两家中型单户住宅建筑商，其股价在过去一个月暴跌了两位数。在家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR（-0.51%）和百货公司Nordstrom JWN（+2.03%）从春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五个主要原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们注意到了逾期的项目，并利用能够轻松地与承包商会面的优势。但在很多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑房主正在进行的购买类型。水龙头、橱柜甚至马桶都是2020年最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循这种每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月创下了相关网站历史上最高的访问量，有1.33亿网民购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或灯具不是每年都要买的——所以这种趋势似乎不可持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>说到大流行后家居用品供应商的高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过提高利润和销售额来承受这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更厉害--它们的估值超出了历史常态。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过 26，而 2020 年春季的远期市盈率仅为 21。其历史市销率目前为 2.1，而之前为 1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX 等昔日宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为 22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货 M, +0.70% 和 Big Lots Big, -3.71% 的远期市盈率实际上远低于 10。当然，你可以说 TJX 是独一无二的.但你可能也想知道，目前除了时尚的居家交易之外，许多其他股票的 “公允价值 ”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票未来从疫情推动的峰值增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外航运延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但 “宅在家里 ”的股票似乎受到的打击尤为严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会（National Association of Home Builders）的数据，大约 94% 的建筑商表示 “至少存在一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺少框架木材，87%的人说很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你能摆脱需求担忧，如果没有原材料来生产，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有花钱买承包商，也没有接受昂贵的新家具长期延误的人来说，现在有一个相当大的阻碍因素会阻碍新购物者：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>以消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本在5月份上涨了0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏天以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它已经侵蚀了购买力，并可能削减我们在过去一年左右看到的 “宅在家里 ”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通胀：5月份，美国房屋的中位数价格有史以来首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨了23.6%。此外，Realtor.com 的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的出售房主希望获得高于要价的价格，大约同样数量的房主希望在挂牌一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，许多文章都在谈论有吸引力的市场供应短缺的问题，重要的是要承认，大流行病的远程工作确实让人们对人们为何生活在这样的地方进行了一些颠覆性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但问题就出在这里： 已经提前支付了房价预期溢价的房主。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当时类似的卖家权利？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主确实有可能对自己的房屋价值过于乐观--而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款很可能根本无法持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126920550,"gmtCreate":1624542572370,"gmtModify":1631892558874,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126920550","repostId":"2145046194","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126967679,"gmtCreate":1624542557891,"gmtModify":1631892558907,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice article&nbsp;","listText":"Nice article&nbsp;","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126967679","repostId":"2145046329","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123178628,"gmtCreate":1624413827464,"gmtModify":1631892558917,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123178628","repostId":"1189547174","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189547174","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624413006,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189547174?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:50","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Big Oil CEOs Join Traders in Seeing Possibility of $100 Oil<blockquote>大型石油公司首席执行官与交易员一起看到油价达到 100 美元的可能性</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189547174","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The bosses of some of the world’s biggest oil companies said crude prices are likely ","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- The bosses of some of the world’s biggest oil companies said crude prices are likely to keep rising because a lack of investment will curtail future supply. The chief executive officers...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--世界上一些最大的石油公司的老板表示，原油价格可能会继续上涨，因为缺乏投资将减少未来的供应。首席执行官们……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big Oil CEOs Join Traders in Seeing Possibility of $100 Oil<blockquote>大型石油公司首席执行官与交易员一起看到油价达到 100 美元的可能性</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig Oil CEOs Join Traders in Seeing Possibility of $100 Oil<blockquote>大型石油公司首席执行官与交易员一起看到油价达到 100 美元的可能性</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- The bosses of some of the world’s biggest oil companies said crude prices are likely to keep rising because a lack of investment will curtail future supply. The chief executive officers...</p><p><blockquote><div>(彭博社）--世界上一些最大的石油公司的老板表示，原油价格可能会继续上涨，因为缺乏投资将减少未来的供应。首席执行官们……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-ceos-join-traders-173420116.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189547174","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The bosses of some of the world’s biggest oil companies said crude prices are likely to keep rising because a lack of investment will curtail future supply.\nThe chief executive officers of Royal Dutch Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE joined major commodity traders and banks in predicting that oil could go as high as $100 a barrel, although they also said volatile markets could drive prices back down again.\nThe lack of investment is “going to exacerbate supply and demand tightness as the economies pick back up again, and then in time we’ll see supply pick up and rebalance,” Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Darren Woods said at the Qatar Economic Forum Tuesday. But “in the shorter term probably higher prices” are more likely.\nTrading house Trafigura Group said oil could top $100 a barrel over the next year. Bank of America Corp. also forecast this week that prices could jump to that level and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it doesn’t rule it out. Oil has climbed 44% this year as widespread vaccinations increase mobility and boost demand. Benchmark Brent crude was little changed at 2:55 p.m. in New York at $74.90 a barrel.\nGlobal oil markets had one of the most turbulent years in history last year with the coronavirus pandemic sending prices crashing. But economies in the West are growing again, roads in Europe and the U.S. are starting to fill up, and more Americans are flying. While that could drive prices higher in the near term, the energy transition means oil consumption could start to plateau and eventually decline in the longer term.\nThe energy shift means there hasn’t been enough investment in oil and gas projects and that could push prices higher, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said at the same event. BP Plc CEO Bernard Looney said earlier Tuesday that rising crude is helping the company’s energy transition plans and generating better cash flow and returns for shareholders.\nThere’s “quite a chance” of reaching $100 a barrel, “but we could see again in coming years some low prices,” TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said. “We’ve been accustomed to volatility.”\nThe Qatar Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Investment Promotion Agency Qatar and Media City Qatar are underwriters of the Qatar Economic Forum, Powered by Bloomberg.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159955400,"gmtCreate":1624937970400,"gmtModify":1631891372938,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159955400","repostId":"1146874721","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146874721","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624935286,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146874721?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 10:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Signs the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146874721","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultim","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）美国由Covid引发的衰退是一场痛苦的衰退，但最终可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> The official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.</p><p><blockquote>官方仲裁者美国国家经济研究局尚未表示经济低迷已经结束。然而，随着就业、住房和股市的乐观迹象，经济确实回到了复苏模式。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家认为这次衰退是1918年衰退的镜像，那次衰退也是由大流行引发的：全球流感爆发。那次低迷仅持续了7个月，是有记录以来第二短的。</blockquote></p><p> Could the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.</p><p><blockquote>Covid衰退会遵循类似的路径吗？我们必须等待NBER的裁决，该组织宣布经济周期的开始和结束——通常需要几个月的时间，直到衰退结束后才宣布结束。</blockquote></p><p> There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>当然，仍有一些经济领域远未达到2020年2月之前的水平，例如小企业、零售和餐馆。</blockquote></p><p> But plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.</p><p><blockquote>但是很多领域都在变得更好。GDP再次增长，在去年上半年下降后，过去三个季度飙升。随着遭受重创的服务业工人重返工作岗位，就业市场也在复苏。盈利随着股市反弹。房地产市场继续火爆。</blockquote></p><p> And it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多主要城市来说，一切都恢复了正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.</p><p><blockquote>向公寓业主和商业房地产公司提供贷款的房地产公司Arbor Realty Trust(ABR)董事长兼首席执行官伊万·考夫曼(Ivan Kaufman)表示：“我们不再处于低迷状态。情况非常强劲，几乎令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Default rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.</p><p><blockquote>他说，考夫曼公司客户的违约率相对较低，并补充说租金——去年受到短暂打击——又开始攀升。租赁需求也在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> The demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>美国城市的消亡可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"</p><p><blockquote>考夫曼说：“新冠病毒存在的问题是没有人进入城市。”“这种现象造成了一些空缺。但这已经结束了。”</blockquote></p><p> 'Strong...to quite strong'</p><p><blockquote>“强……到相当强”</blockquote></p><p> Urban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.</p><p><blockquote>城市房地产并不是唯一复苏的经济部门。资金管理公司ClearBridge Investments拥有一个经济衰退风险仪表板，该仪表板着眼于十几项经济指标，包括零售销售、住房、大宗商品价格、就业市场和卡车运输。</blockquote></p><p> ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge本月早些时候表示，这些指标中的大多数在2020年5月触底，所有12项指标现在都显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge的分析师在一份报告中表示，考虑到这一点，他们认为衰退可能在大约一年前就结束了——距离衰退开始仅四个月。他们甚至用《见见父母》中的一个笑话来描述经济，称其“强劲……到相当强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者并没有表现得好像这仍然是一场衰退。现在最大的担忧是经济是否会过快升温，迫使美联储提前缩减购债规模和加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors研究总监马特·庇隆(Matt Peron)表示：“每次衰退都是不同的，这是一次不寻常的衰退。但市场显然已经从疫情中走出来。”“投资者关注通胀。这是第一、第二和第三大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Fear the double dip?</p><p><blockquote>害怕二次探底？</blockquote></p><p> Beyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示，除了担心美联储拿走众所周知的潘趣酒碗并过早削减刺激措施外，投资者还担心美联储不会迅速采取行动，在通胀压力失控之前抑制通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示：“美联储必须走钢丝。”他补充说，央行的错误可能会导致所谓的双底衰退，即经济在复苏后迅速再次收缩。</blockquote></p><p> That's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>这就是1980年历史上短暂的衰退之后发生的情况，那次衰退只有六个月，是有记录以来最短的一次。美联储的一系列大幅加息导致了另一场从1981年7月持续到1982年11月的衰退。</blockquote></p><p> But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.</p><p><blockquote>但许多华尔街专家和经济学家认为，美联储不会很快被迫加息，否则通胀将会失控。</blockquote></p><p> \"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师周一在一份报告中表示：“工资上涨导致物价上涨导致的持续通胀可能会导致金融状况收紧，并使这种年轻的扩张面临危险。”“但我们仍然属于预计通胀将从现在开始放缓的阵营。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>策略师认为，疫情造成的劳动力市场和供应短缺应该很快就会缓解。这将减轻工资增长的压力，而工资增长是通货膨胀的一个关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> They also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>他们还认为，企业已经进行了足够的投资来提高生产率，这应该意味着他们不必将大宗商品价格上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师表示：“我们可能已经看到了2021年最高的月度通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样的话，在可预见的未来，经济可能会继续扩张。现在唯一的问题是NBER何时会真正站出来正式宣布2020年衰退结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Signs the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSigns the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）美国由Covid引发的衰退是一场痛苦的衰退，但最终可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> The official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.</p><p><blockquote>官方仲裁者美国国家经济研究局尚未表示经济低迷已经结束。然而，随着就业、住房和股市的乐观迹象，经济确实回到了复苏模式。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家认为这次衰退是1918年衰退的镜像，那次衰退也是由大流行引发的：全球流感爆发。那次低迷仅持续了7个月，是有记录以来第二短的。</blockquote></p><p> Could the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.</p><p><blockquote>Covid衰退会遵循类似的路径吗？我们必须等待NBER的裁决，该组织宣布经济周期的开始和结束——通常需要几个月的时间，直到衰退结束后才宣布结束。</blockquote></p><p> There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>当然，仍有一些经济领域远未达到2020年2月之前的水平，例如小企业、零售和餐馆。</blockquote></p><p> But plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.</p><p><blockquote>但是很多领域都在变得更好。GDP再次增长，在去年上半年下降后，过去三个季度飙升。随着遭受重创的服务业工人重返工作岗位，就业市场也在复苏。盈利随着股市反弹。房地产市场继续火爆。</blockquote></p><p> And it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多主要城市来说，一切都恢复了正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.</p><p><blockquote>向公寓业主和商业房地产公司提供贷款的房地产公司Arbor Realty Trust(ABR)董事长兼首席执行官伊万·考夫曼(Ivan Kaufman)表示：“我们不再处于低迷状态。情况非常强劲，几乎令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Default rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.</p><p><blockquote>他说，考夫曼公司客户的违约率相对较低，并补充说租金——去年受到短暂打击——又开始攀升。租赁需求也在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> The demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>美国城市的消亡可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"</p><p><blockquote>考夫曼说：“新冠病毒存在的问题是没有人进入城市。”“这种现象造成了一些空缺。但这已经结束了。”</blockquote></p><p> 'Strong...to quite strong'</p><p><blockquote>“强……到相当强”</blockquote></p><p> Urban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.</p><p><blockquote>城市房地产并不是唯一复苏的经济部门。资金管理公司ClearBridge Investments拥有一个经济衰退风险仪表板，该仪表板着眼于十几项经济指标，包括零售销售、住房、大宗商品价格、就业市场和卡车运输。</blockquote></p><p> ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge本月早些时候表示，这些指标中的大多数在2020年5月触底，所有12项指标现在都显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge的分析师在一份报告中表示，考虑到这一点，他们认为衰退可能在大约一年前就结束了——距离衰退开始仅四个月。他们甚至用《见见父母》中的一个笑话来描述经济，称其“强劲……到相当强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者并没有表现得好像这仍然是一场衰退。现在最大的担忧是经济是否会过快升温，迫使美联储提前缩减购债规模和加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors研究总监马特·庇隆(Matt Peron)表示：“每次衰退都是不同的，这是一次不寻常的衰退。但市场显然已经从疫情中走出来。”“投资者关注通胀。这是第一、第二和第三大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Fear the double dip?</p><p><blockquote>害怕二次探底？</blockquote></p><p> Beyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示，除了担心美联储拿走众所周知的潘趣酒碗并过早削减刺激措施外，投资者还担心美联储不会迅速采取行动，在通胀压力失控之前抑制通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示：“美联储必须走钢丝。”他补充说，央行的错误可能会导致所谓的双底衰退，即经济在复苏后迅速再次收缩。</blockquote></p><p> That's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>这就是1980年历史上短暂的衰退之后发生的情况，那次衰退只有六个月，是有记录以来最短的一次。美联储的一系列大幅加息导致了另一场从1981年7月持续到1982年11月的衰退。</blockquote></p><p> But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.</p><p><blockquote>但许多华尔街专家和经济学家认为，美联储不会很快被迫加息，否则通胀将会失控。</blockquote></p><p> \"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师周一在一份报告中表示：“工资上涨导致物价上涨导致的持续通胀可能会导致金融状况收紧，并使这种年轻的扩张面临危险。”“但我们仍然属于预计通胀将从现在开始放缓的阵营。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>策略师认为，疫情造成的劳动力市场和供应短缺应该很快就会缓解。这将减轻工资增长的压力，而工资增长是通货膨胀的一个关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> They also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>他们还认为，企业已经进行了足够的投资来提高生产率，这应该意味着他们不必将大宗商品价格上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师表示：“我们可能已经看到了2021年最高的月度通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样的话，在可预见的未来，经济可能会继续扩张。现在唯一的问题是NBER何时会真正站出来正式宣布2020年衰退结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/investing/recession-recovery-covid-economy/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/investing/recession-recovery-covid-economy/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146874721","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.\nThe official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.\nSome experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.\nCould the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.\nThere are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.\nBut plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.\nAnd it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.\n\"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.\nDefault rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.\nThe demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.\n\"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"\n'Strong...to quite strong'\nUrban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.\nClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.\nAnalysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"\nMeanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.\n\"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"\nFear the double dip?\nBeyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.\n\"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.\nThat's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.\nBut many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.\n\"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"\nThe strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.\nThey also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.\n\"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.\nIf that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127969823,"gmtCreate":1624817117062,"gmtModify":1631891372992,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127969823","repostId":"2146000990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126923732,"gmtCreate":1624542630126,"gmtModify":1631891373043,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126923732","repostId":"1157108235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157108235","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624536641,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157108235?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 20:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Volatility Hits Fresh Pandemic Low<blockquote>股市波动性创下大流行新低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157108235","media":"The Wall Street Journal\t","summary":"The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as Wall Street's fear gauge—has fallen to a fresh pande","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfccfa24950007638006bff237c3a083\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as Wall Street's fear gauge—has fallen to a fresh pandemic-era low.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）——也被称为华尔街的恐惧指标——已跌至大流行时代的新低。</blockquote></p><p> The VIX dropped to 15.59 on Thursday morning, beating a recent low of 15.65 on June 11.</p><p><blockquote>周四上午，VIX 指数跌至 15.59，打破了 6 月 11 日 15.65 的近期低点。</blockquote></p><p> The index, which is based on volatility expectations drawn from options on the S&amp;P 500, tends to fall when stocks are grinding gently higher—and it tends to jump when stocks plummet. It hit an all-time record of 82.69 on March 16 last year when the Covid-19 panic was at its worst.</p><p><blockquote>该指数基于从标普500期权中得出的波动性预期，当股市小幅走高时，该指数往往会下跌，而当股市暴跌时，该指数往往会上涨。去年 3 月 16 日，当 Covid-19 恐慌最严重时，它创下了 82.69 的历史纪录。</blockquote></p><p> It is now at its lowest levels since February last year when it got as low as 13.7.</p><p><blockquote>目前处于去年2月以来的最低水平，当时最低水平为13.7。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Volatility Hits Fresh Pandemic Low<blockquote>股市波动性创下大流行新低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Volatility Hits Fresh Pandemic Low<blockquote>股市波动性创下大流行新低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal\t</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfccfa24950007638006bff237c3a083\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"512\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as Wall Street's fear gauge—has fallen to a fresh pandemic-era low.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）——也被称为华尔街的恐惧指标——已跌至大流行时代的新低。</blockquote></p><p> The VIX dropped to 15.59 on Thursday morning, beating a recent low of 15.65 on June 11.</p><p><blockquote>周四上午，VIX 指数跌至 15.59，打破了 6 月 11 日 15.65 的近期低点。</blockquote></p><p> The index, which is based on volatility expectations drawn from options on the S&amp;P 500, tends to fall when stocks are grinding gently higher—and it tends to jump when stocks plummet. It hit an all-time record of 82.69 on March 16 last year when the Covid-19 panic was at its worst.</p><p><blockquote>该指数基于从标普500期权中得出的波动性预期，当股市小幅走高时，该指数往往会下跌，而当股市暴跌时，该指数往往会上涨。去年 3 月 16 日，当 Covid-19 恐慌最严重时，它创下了 82.69 的历史纪录。</blockquote></p><p> It is now at its lowest levels since February last year when it got as low as 13.7.</p><p><blockquote>目前处于去年2月以来的最低水平，当时最低水平为13.7。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-live-updates-062421/card/aZpyO4H4RhqVTvxzTwua\">The Wall Street Journal\t</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-live-updates-062421/card/aZpyO4H4RhqVTvxzTwua","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157108235","content_text":"The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as Wall Street's fear gauge—has fallen to a fresh pandemic-era low.\nThe VIX dropped to 15.59 on Thursday morning, beating a recent low of 15.65 on June 11.\nThe index, which is based on volatility expectations drawn from options on the S&P 500, tends to fall when stocks are grinding gently higher—and it tends to jump when stocks plummet. It hit an all-time record of 82.69 on March 16 last year when the Covid-19 panic was at its worst.\nIt is now at its lowest levels since February last year when it got as low as 13.7.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123178545,"gmtCreate":1624413837187,"gmtModify":1631892558918,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Nice","listText":"&nbsp;Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123178545","repostId":"2145061761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159955170,"gmtCreate":1624937951690,"gmtModify":1631891372954,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMC and Tesla fly","listText":"AMC and Tesla fly","text":"AMC and Tesla fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159955170","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127969166,"gmtCreate":1624817103255,"gmtModify":1631891373021,"author":{"id":"3582001007986071","authorId":"3582001007986071","name":"Hahaalibaba","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582001007986071","idStr":"3582001007986071"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127969166","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新精神的公司之一，引领着电子商务行业和云计算服务。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股一致。</li><li>本文着眼于亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>如今，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）似乎有点定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果 (AAPL) 或微软 (MSFT) 等其他热门股票。好吧，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我将分析我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的原因，以帮助你在未来做出更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一件重要的事情——我不是亚马逊方面的专家，而且我很难评估成长型股票。我真的怀疑我是否有能力估计一家公司的未来增长。我通过观察过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来预测未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法接近于“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推不是很好，因为未来不同于过去——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格在获得大致正确的估值方面做得很好。我总是尽量把我的估值定得低，因为低买高卖赔钱不如低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全裕度</b>意思是买打折的东西……这就是伟大投资的全部秘诀。规则 1 投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊从哪里来钱？亚马逊分为3个部门：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为2个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来很可能会继续保持高增长。在本节中，我查看了亚马逊每个细分市场过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此对未来做出了保守的预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个细分市场的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是 AMZN 的北美业务。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美能赚多少钱必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内从2000亿美元的收入增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常不可思议的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊的国际业务：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入增长 20%，营业利润率将有所提高。我认为营业利润率会逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊美国业务相似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，这里是 AWS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计 AWS 细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预计年收入增长率为25-30%，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，到2025年，云计算行业的CAGR增长率应该约为17.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为 28%，因为 AWS 业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够将成本分摊到更多人身上，从而获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率有可能超过 28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测被加在一起，以帮助我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能会投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购高达50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定的到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>来源：2020 10-K 第 60 页，<i>增加了重点</i>但就我们的目的而言，这句话表明亚马逊在过去 3 年里没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲置现金。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约26B美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可能会看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了 7.7% 的贴现率，因为我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 就是这样。我假设股权成本为 8%，过去 10 年亚马逊的平均税率约为 20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我用DCF模型找到了亚马逊今天的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部 2 个红色方框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将较高。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到 2025 年，亚马逊的收入将超过 8500 亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据预计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约 5500 亿美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为 3900 亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很容易成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司有多少收入将成为商业利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石框中，我应用贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被高估了。该模型预测该股可能被高估约 15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来 5 年的年回报率约为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在目前的价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我抛出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价”。这背后的想法是，AMZN 股票越便宜，我们期望的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股 2,200 美元的年回报率约为 15%，每股 1,700 美元的年回报率约为 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但是当股票交易价格接近 3,500 美元时，将买入价设定在 2,000 美元左右是不是似乎不合理？”确实有一点点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能跌破 2,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能会有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1900美元（我希望我当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被略微高估了，因为它似乎在未来 5 年内提供了约 5% 的年回报率。这并不意味着如果你是长期持有者，你就应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果您正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果你已经关注亚马逊有一段时间了，你想进入亚马逊，现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资股票，我们仍然可以看着亚马逊成为世界上收入最高的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明的家伙。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢你的阅读，我希望你今天过得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：库存好，价格不好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新精神的公司之一，引领着电子商务行业和云计算服务。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股一致。</li><li>本文着眼于亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>如今，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）似乎有点定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果 (AAPL) 或微软 (MSFT) 等其他热门股票。好吧，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我将分析我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的原因，以帮助你在未来做出更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一件重要的事情——我不是亚马逊方面的专家，而且我很难评估成长型股票。我真的怀疑我是否有能力估计一家公司的未来增长。我通过观察过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来预测未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法接近于“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推不是很好，因为未来不同于过去——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格在获得大致正确的估值方面做得很好。我总是尽量把我的估值定得低，因为低买高卖赔钱不如低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全裕度</b>意思是买打折的东西……这就是伟大投资的全部秘诀。规则 1 投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊从哪里来钱？亚马逊分为3个部门：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为2个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来很可能会继续保持高增长。在本节中，我查看了亚马逊每个细分市场过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此对未来做出了保守的预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个细分市场的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是 AMZN 的北美业务。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美能赚多少钱必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内从2000亿美元的收入增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常不可思议的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊的国际业务：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者数据来自 2018 10-K、2019 10-K 和 2020 10-K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入增长 20%，营业利润率将有所提高。我认为营业利润率会逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊美国业务相似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，这里是 AWS：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计 AWS 细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预计年收入增长率为25-30%，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，到2025年，云计算行业的CAGR增长率应该约为17.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为 28%，因为 AWS 业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够将成本分摊到更多人身上，从而获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率有可能超过 28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测被加在一起，以帮助我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能会投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购高达50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定的到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>来源：2020 10-K 第 60 页，<i>增加了重点</i>但就我们的目的而言，这句话表明亚马逊在过去 3 年里没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲置现金。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约26B美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可能会看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了 7.7% 的贴现率，因为我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本 (WACC) 就是这样。我假设股权成本为 8%，过去 10 年亚马逊的平均税率约为 20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我用DCF模型找到了亚马逊今天的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部 2 个红色方框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将较高。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到 2025 年，亚马逊的收入将超过 8500 亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据预计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约 5500 亿美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为 3900 亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很容易成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司有多少收入将成为商业利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石框中，我应用贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被高估了。该模型预测该股可能被高估约 15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来 5 年的年回报率约为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在目前的价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我抛出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价”。这背后的想法是，AMZN 股票越便宜，我们期望的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股 2,200 美元的年回报率约为 15%，每股 1,700 美元的年回报率约为 22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但是当股票交易价格接近 3,500 美元时，将买入价设定在 2,000 美元左右是不是似乎不合理？”确实有一点点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能跌破 2,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能会有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1900美元（我希望我当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊似乎被略微高估了，因为它似乎在未来 5 年内提供了约 5% 的年回报率。这并不意味着如果你是长期持有者，你就应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果您正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果你已经关注亚马逊有一段时间了，你想进入亚马逊，现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资股票，我们仍然可以看着亚马逊成为世界上收入最高的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明的家伙。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢你的阅读，我希望你今天过得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}