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2021-06-15

Great!

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2021-06-15

Nice!

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2021-06-15

Great!

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2021-06-14

Thanks for sharing!

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2021-06-14

Thanks for sharing!

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2021-06-14

Yes

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2021-06-14

Yes these are great!

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2021-06-14

😞

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2021-06-14

Not sure

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2021-06-14

Nice!

PayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote>

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for sharing!","listText":"Thanks for sharing!","text":"Thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185259105","repostId":"1122505915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185250710,"gmtCreate":1623655702930,"gmtModify":1634030581027,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578570871235568","idStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing!","listText":"Thanks for sharing!","text":"Thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185250710","repostId":"2142250206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185225187,"gmtCreate":1623655334849,"gmtModify":1634030583816,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578570871235568","idStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185225187","repostId":"2142422555","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185222761,"gmtCreate":1623655313353,"gmtModify":1634030584186,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578570871235568","idStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes these are great!","listText":"Yes these are great!","text":"Yes these are great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185222761","repostId":"1108874297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185222351,"gmtCreate":1623655244173,"gmtModify":1634030584532,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578570871235568","idStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😞","listText":"😞","text":"😞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185222351","repostId":"2143789794","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185226621,"gmtCreate":1623655202863,"gmtModify":1634030585001,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578570871235568","idStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not sure","listText":"Not sure","text":"Not sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185226621","repostId":"2143851017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185228279,"gmtCreate":1623655041691,"gmtModify":1634030585470,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578570871235568","idStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185228279","repostId":"1141995531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141995531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623652578,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141995531?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141995531","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry.</li>  <li>Its growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any sign of slowing down, making its 2025 targets quite achievable.</li>  <li>The premium valuation to Visa or Mastercard is justified and PayPal is now my largest holding in the digital payments theme.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4976c13e5ffab4c5035b08d60831ed\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal是一家领先的金融科技公司，从数字支付行业的长期增长趋势中受益匪浅。</li><li>其增长历史令人印象深刻，而且势头没有放缓的迹象，这使得其 2025 年的目标完全可以实现。</li><li>Visa 或万事达卡的溢价估值是合理的，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题中最大的持股。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) is a compelling long-term play on the secular growth trend of digital payments as the company’s growth path is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) 是对数字支付长期增长趋势的一个引人注目的长期投资，因为该公司的增长路径在未来几年可能会保持相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Profile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司简介</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings Inc. is a leading fintech company that enables digital and mobile payments through its technology platform. Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such as<b>Visa</b>(V),<b>Mastercard</b>(MA) or<b>Adyen</b>(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股公司是一家领先的金融科技公司，通过其技术平台实现数字和移动支付。其主要竞争对手是其他支付技术公司，例如<b>签证</b>（五），<b>万事达卡</b>（马）或<b>阿迪恩</b>（OTCPK：阿迪）。它目前的市值约为3090亿美元，低于万事达卡或维萨卡。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的核心业务是为商家和消费者提供支付解决方案，业务遍及全球。截至2020年底，它拥有约3.77亿个活跃账户，其中约3.48亿个消费者账户和2900万个商户账户，比2015年底活跃账户数量增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f478cd622b0c634fd146fdf46bf0ef\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的收入来源主要来自对一些已完成的支付交易收取费用，而一般来说，它不会向消费者收取从其PayPal账户中充值或取款的费用。它还从货币兑换和从PayPal或Venmo账户到借记卡或银行账户的即时转账中产生收入。对于其商户客户，它还为中小型商户提供某些信贷产品，增加其对客户的参与度，并为可能无法从传统银行或其他贷款提供商获得贷款的客户提供融资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secular Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期增长</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于 “Visa： 尽管盈利下滑，但长期增长前景依然强劲 ”的文章中所分析的那样，全球支付行业有着非常好的增长记录，未来的增长前景也相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> During the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去几年中，消费者和企业越来越多地采用现金以外的新支付方式，电子商务的兴起也是全球数字支付的重要增长动力。根据麦肯锡的数据，近年来，该行业的收入每年大约增长 7%，2019 年总收入略低于 2 万亿美元，随着数字支付继续增加其市场份额占银行总收入的百分比，预计未来这一增长只会加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27b37a2ed30f39bff844ae07aa49ac5\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Source: McKinsey.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：麦肯锡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的领先公司之一，这一背景非常有利于PayPal的增长前景。事实上，PayPal的收入在过去五年中以 20.8% 的复合年增长率 [CAGR] 增长，这一增长率远高于全球支付行业，也高于 Visa 和万事达卡等最大竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as&nbsp;<b>American Express</b>&nbsp;(AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管最近由于冠状病毒大流行，数字支付的增长路径发生了变化，这对全球支付行业的增长产生了负面影响，但PayPal仍保持强劲的增长路径，因为其业务显然更多地接触数字交易而不是实体支付。这意味着疫情对其业务几乎没有影响，而对其他公司来说却是一个重大挫折，例如<b>美国运通</b>（AXP）或万事达卡更容易接触跨境交易。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Covid-19似乎有利于该行业的长期增长，因为去年数字支付变得更加普遍，未来人们可能会使用更少的现金进行支付交易，从而进一步加速全球数字支付的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，预计增长将迅速恢复，甚至应该高于最近的水平。根据Mordor Intelligence的数据，2021-26年期间，全球数字支付行业的收入CAGR预计为13.7%，几乎是近年来增长的两倍。这清楚地表明，数字支付是一个长期增长的行业，对于未来几年在该行业运营的公司来说是一个非常好的背景。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Taking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这种环境，PayPal显然处于非常有利的地位，可以在未来许多年内保持稳定的增长道路，成为全球向数字支付和电子商务转变的潜在赢家之一。</blockquote></p><p> Taking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一背景，PayPal在未来几年有着强劲的增长雄心也就不足为奇了，目标是到 2025 年实现超过 500 亿美元的收入（是 2020 年收入的两倍多），这得益于现有业务的增长、更高的客户参与度以及将增加PayPal总潜在市场的新产品。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal预计未来五年内活跃账户数量将增加一倍，交易量将增加两倍，考虑到其增长历史和全球支付行业强劲的增长前景，这似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828bae36490c031b69fcf87de3ef91a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着到2025年的500亿美元收入相当于2020-25年期间约20%的CAGR，表明PayPal在未来几年拥有非常好的增长前景。此外，由于该公司预计在此期间的业务利润率将略有提高，因此其盈利预计将在未来五年内以 22% 的复合年增长率增长，并产生超过 400 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务概览</b></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>关于其财务业绩，PayPal拥有非常好的记录，过去几年收入和盈利增长相当迅速。事实上，从 201 年到 2020 年，PayPal的收入复合年增长率约为 20%，盈利复合年增长率为 31%，这是一个非常令人印象深刻的成就，远胜于 Visa 和万事达卡等老牌同行。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.</p><p><blockquote>最近，公司的增长并未因冠状病毒而中断，因为电子商务和现金转移的长期增长趋势随着大流行病而加速，为公司的增长提供了非常强劲的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，PayPal在收入、销量、净新活跃账户和收益方面创下了创纪录的财务数据。事实上，PayPal的收入同比增长了 20.8%，达到 215 亿美元，这一水平非常接近 Visa 的年收入，这表明PayPal尽管是一家年轻得多的公司，但已经实现了非常大的规模。除了更高的收入外，其业务利润率和自由现金流产生也有所改善，与更多地依赖借记卡和信用卡支付的同行相比，这是一个非常好的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b1369e32917090ea7cdb92b9a2fe8a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.</p><p><blockquote>这一积极的财务表现是合理的，因为 Covid-19 导致人们转向网上购物和交易，但也得益于PayPal在今年最后一个季度推出的新产品，如购买和持有数字货币的选择权。其净利润达到42亿美元，同比增长70%，这得益于有机增长和一些投资收益，其自由现金流约为50亿美元，占收入的23%，这表明PayPal拥有非常好的现金流产生能力。</blockquote></p><p> During thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，PayPal保持了令人印象深刻的运营势头，销量同比增长50%，收入同比增长31%。活跃账户增长 21%，达到 3.92 亿个，而本季度净新增账户 1,450 万个。其营业利润率提高到 27.7%（非 GAAP），非 GAAP 每股收益同比增长 84%，自由现金流达到 15.4 亿美元，占季度收入的 25%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>对于 2021 年全年，其指引随着第一季度收益而上调，PayPal目前预计收入将增长至约 257 亿美元，按固定汇率计算，年增长率约为 20%，每股收益同比增长约 21%，自由现金流约为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，PayPal的增长势头在未来几个季度没有放缓的迹象，如果继续以这种速度增长，很有可能提前实现 2025 年的目标。</blockquote></p><p> However, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>不过，目前卖方预计不会出现这种情况，因为根据分析师的估计，未来 2-3 年的收入增长率预计将在 20-21% 左右，然后在 2024 年和 2025 年略有放缓，低于 20%。这符合PayPal自己的目标，这意味着如果该公司在未来几年继续良好地执行其增长计划，那么预估就有一些潜在的上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee830ca42c6ed20907df39e8c28786b\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SeekingAlpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>在资本分配方面，PayPal利用其现金流产生能力为多项收购提供资金，并回购了自己的股票，而资本支出相对有限，正如一家数字化运营的科技公司所预期的那样。展望未来，这一战略预计不会有太大变化，因为PayPal应继续通过PayPal风险投资公司投资金融科技创新，而股票回购将是向股东返还资本的主要方式，即使该公司可能决定在未来几年开始分配股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530c58f1461ce1f7eefb7856a4ef2d05\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的业务非常好，其增长前景非常强劲，无论是来自行业的顺风还是其自身的增长举措。我认为这是利用数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳方式之一，因为PayPal的商业模式完全专注于数字渠道，而其最接近的竞争对手 Visa 或万事达卡仍然严重依赖实体交易。</blockquote></p><p> This profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到PayPal目前的远期市盈率约为 57 倍，而 Visa 和万事达卡的远期市盈率在 42-47 倍之间，这一概况证明了PayPal的溢价估值是合理的。关于我的个人投资组合，我最近重新平衡了我的仓位，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题上的最大持股，因为我认为这家公司是该行业中非常引人注目的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry.</li>  <li>Its growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any sign of slowing down, making its 2025 targets quite achievable.</li>  <li>The premium valuation to Visa or Mastercard is justified and PayPal is now my largest holding in the digital payments theme.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4976c13e5ffab4c5035b08d60831ed\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal是一家领先的金融科技公司，从数字支付行业的长期增长趋势中受益匪浅。</li><li>其增长历史令人印象深刻，而且势头没有放缓的迹象，这使得其 2025 年的目标完全可以实现。</li><li>Visa 或万事达卡的溢价估值是合理的，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题中最大的持股。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) is a compelling long-term play on the secular growth trend of digital payments as the company’s growth path is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) 是对数字支付长期增长趋势的一个引人注目的长期投资，因为该公司的增长路径在未来几年可能会保持相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Profile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司简介</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings Inc. is a leading fintech company that enables digital and mobile payments through its technology platform. Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such as<b>Visa</b>(V),<b>Mastercard</b>(MA) or<b>Adyen</b>(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股公司是一家领先的金融科技公司，通过其技术平台实现数字和移动支付。其主要竞争对手是其他支付技术公司，例如<b>签证</b>（五），<b>万事达卡</b>（马）或<b>阿迪恩</b>（OTCPK：阿迪）。它目前的市值约为3090亿美元，低于万事达卡或维萨卡。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的核心业务是为商家和消费者提供支付解决方案，业务遍及全球。截至2020年底，它拥有约3.77亿个活跃账户，其中约3.48亿个消费者账户和2900万个商户账户，比2015年底活跃账户数量增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f478cd622b0c634fd146fdf46bf0ef\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的收入来源主要来自对一些已完成的支付交易收取费用，而一般来说，它不会向消费者收取从其PayPal账户中充值或取款的费用。它还从货币兑换和从PayPal或Venmo账户到借记卡或银行账户的即时转账中产生收入。对于其商户客户，它还为中小型商户提供某些信贷产品，增加其对客户的参与度，并为可能无法从传统银行或其他贷款提供商获得贷款的客户提供融资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secular Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期增长</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于 “Visa： 尽管盈利下滑，但长期增长前景依然强劲 ”的文章中所分析的那样，全球支付行业有着非常好的增长记录，未来的增长前景也相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> During the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去几年中，消费者和企业越来越多地采用现金以外的新支付方式，电子商务的兴起也是全球数字支付的重要增长动力。根据麦肯锡的数据，近年来，该行业的收入每年大约增长 7%，2019 年总收入略低于 2 万亿美元，随着数字支付继续增加其市场份额占银行总收入的百分比，预计未来这一增长只会加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27b37a2ed30f39bff844ae07aa49ac5\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Source: McKinsey.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：麦肯锡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的领先公司之一，这一背景非常有利于PayPal的增长前景。事实上，PayPal的收入在过去五年中以 20.8% 的复合年增长率 [CAGR] 增长，这一增长率远高于全球支付行业，也高于 Visa 和万事达卡等最大竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as&nbsp;<b>American Express</b>&nbsp;(AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管最近由于冠状病毒大流行，数字支付的增长路径发生了变化，这对全球支付行业的增长产生了负面影响，但PayPal仍保持强劲的增长路径，因为其业务显然更多地接触数字交易而不是实体支付。这意味着疫情对其业务几乎没有影响，而对其他公司来说却是一个重大挫折，例如<b>美国运通</b>（AXP）或万事达卡更容易接触跨境交易。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Covid-19似乎有利于该行业的长期增长，因为去年数字支付变得更加普遍，未来人们可能会使用更少的现金进行支付交易，从而进一步加速全球数字支付的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，预计增长将迅速恢复，甚至应该高于最近的水平。根据Mordor Intelligence的数据，2021-26年期间，全球数字支付行业的收入CAGR预计为13.7%，几乎是近年来增长的两倍。这清楚地表明，数字支付是一个长期增长的行业，对于未来几年在该行业运营的公司来说是一个非常好的背景。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Taking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这种环境，PayPal显然处于非常有利的地位，可以在未来许多年内保持稳定的增长道路，成为全球向数字支付和电子商务转变的潜在赢家之一。</blockquote></p><p> Taking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一背景，PayPal在未来几年有着强劲的增长雄心也就不足为奇了，目标是到 2025 年实现超过 500 亿美元的收入（是 2020 年收入的两倍多），这得益于现有业务的增长、更高的客户参与度以及将增加PayPal总潜在市场的新产品。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal预计未来五年内活跃账户数量将增加一倍，交易量将增加两倍，考虑到其增长历史和全球支付行业强劲的增长前景，这似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828bae36490c031b69fcf87de3ef91a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着到2025年的500亿美元收入相当于2020-25年期间约20%的CAGR，表明PayPal在未来几年拥有非常好的增长前景。此外，由于该公司预计在此期间的业务利润率将略有提高，因此其盈利预计将在未来五年内以 22% 的复合年增长率增长，并产生超过 400 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务概览</b></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>关于其财务业绩，PayPal拥有非常好的记录，过去几年收入和盈利增长相当迅速。事实上，从 201 年到 2020 年，PayPal的收入复合年增长率约为 20%，盈利复合年增长率为 31%，这是一个非常令人印象深刻的成就，远胜于 Visa 和万事达卡等老牌同行。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.</p><p><blockquote>最近，公司的增长并未因冠状病毒而中断，因为电子商务和现金转移的长期增长趋势随着大流行病而加速，为公司的增长提供了非常强劲的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，PayPal在收入、销量、净新活跃账户和收益方面创下了创纪录的财务数据。事实上，PayPal的收入同比增长了 20.8%，达到 215 亿美元，这一水平非常接近 Visa 的年收入，这表明PayPal尽管是一家年轻得多的公司，但已经实现了非常大的规模。除了更高的收入外，其业务利润率和自由现金流产生也有所改善，与更多地依赖借记卡和信用卡支付的同行相比，这是一个非常好的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b1369e32917090ea7cdb92b9a2fe8a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.</p><p><blockquote>这一积极的财务表现是合理的，因为 Covid-19 导致人们转向网上购物和交易，但也得益于PayPal在今年最后一个季度推出的新产品，如购买和持有数字货币的选择权。其净利润达到42亿美元，同比增长70%，这得益于有机增长和一些投资收益，其自由现金流约为50亿美元，占收入的23%，这表明PayPal拥有非常好的现金流产生能力。</blockquote></p><p> During thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，PayPal保持了令人印象深刻的运营势头，销量同比增长50%，收入同比增长31%。活跃账户增长 21%，达到 3.92 亿个，而本季度净新增账户 1,450 万个。其营业利润率提高到 27.7%（非 GAAP），非 GAAP 每股收益同比增长 84%，自由现金流达到 15.4 亿美元，占季度收入的 25%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>对于 2021 年全年，其指引随着第一季度收益而上调，PayPal目前预计收入将增长至约 257 亿美元，按固定汇率计算，年增长率约为 20%，每股收益同比增长约 21%，自由现金流约为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，PayPal的增长势头在未来几个季度没有放缓的迹象，如果继续以这种速度增长，很有可能提前实现 2025 年的目标。</blockquote></p><p> However, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>不过，目前卖方预计不会出现这种情况，因为根据分析师的估计，未来 2-3 年的收入增长率预计将在 20-21% 左右，然后在 2024 年和 2025 年略有放缓，低于 20%。这符合PayPal自己的目标，这意味着如果该公司在未来几年继续良好地执行其增长计划，那么预估就有一些潜在的上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee830ca42c6ed20907df39e8c28786b\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SeekingAlpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>在资本分配方面，PayPal利用其现金流产生能力为多项收购提供资金，并回购了自己的股票，而资本支出相对有限，正如一家数字化运营的科技公司所预期的那样。展望未来，这一战略预计不会有太大变化，因为PayPal应继续通过PayPal风险投资公司投资金融科技创新，而股票回购将是向股东返还资本的主要方式，即使该公司可能决定在未来几年开始分配股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530c58f1461ce1f7eefb7856a4ef2d05\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的业务非常好，其增长前景非常强劲，无论是来自行业的顺风还是其自身的增长举措。我认为这是利用数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳方式之一，因为PayPal的商业模式完全专注于数字渠道，而其最接近的竞争对手 Visa 或万事达卡仍然严重依赖实体交易。</blockquote></p><p> This profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到PayPal目前的远期市盈率约为 57 倍，而 Visa 和万事达卡的远期市盈率在 42-47 倍之间，这一概况证明了PayPal的溢价估值是合理的。关于我的个人投资组合，我最近重新平衡了我的仓位，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题上的最大持股，因为我认为这家公司是该行业中非常引人注目的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434455-paypal-best-play-on-secular-growth-trend-of-digital-payments\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434455-paypal-best-play-on-secular-growth-trend-of-digital-payments","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141995531","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry.\nIts growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any sign of slowing down, making its 2025 targets quite achievable.\nThe premium valuation to Visa or Mastercard is justified and PayPal is now my largest holding in the digital payments theme.\n\nJasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nPayPal(PYPL) is a compelling long-term play on the secular growth trend of digital payments as the company’s growth path is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years.\nCompany Profile\nPayPal Holdings Inc. is a leading fintech company that enables digital and mobile payments through its technology platform. Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such asVisa(V),Mastercard(MA) orAdyen(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.\nPayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.\nSource: PayPal.\nThe company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.\nSecular Growth\nAs I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.\nDuring the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.\nSource: McKinsey.\nThis background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.\nMoreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as American Express (AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.\nNevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.\nOver the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.\nTaking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.\nTaking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.\nPayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.\nSource: PayPal.\nThis means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.\nFinancial Overview\nRegarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.\nMore recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.\nIn 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.\nSource: PayPal.\nThis positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.\nDuring thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.\nFor the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.\nThis clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.\nHowever, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.\nSource: SeekingAlpha.\nRegarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.\nSource: PayPal.\nConclusion\nPayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.\nThis profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":184128588,"gmtCreate":1623690381044,"gmtModify":1634029990129,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184128588","repostId":"2143738859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185222351,"gmtCreate":1623655244173,"gmtModify":1634030584532,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😞","listText":"😞","text":"😞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185222351","repostId":"2143789794","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187117527,"gmtCreate":1623746509069,"gmtModify":1634029213951,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187117527","repostId":"1155798913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185226621,"gmtCreate":1623655202863,"gmtModify":1634030585001,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not sure","listText":"Not sure","text":"Not sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185226621","repostId":"2143851017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185228279,"gmtCreate":1623655041691,"gmtModify":1634030585470,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185228279","repostId":"1141995531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141995531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623652578,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141995531?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141995531","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry.</li>  <li>Its growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any sign of slowing down, making its 2025 targets quite achievable.</li>  <li>The premium valuation to Visa or Mastercard is justified and PayPal is now my largest holding in the digital payments theme.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4976c13e5ffab4c5035b08d60831ed\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal是一家领先的金融科技公司，从数字支付行业的长期增长趋势中受益匪浅。</li><li>其增长历史令人印象深刻，而且势头没有放缓的迹象，这使得其 2025 年的目标完全可以实现。</li><li>Visa 或万事达卡的溢价估值是合理的，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题中最大的持股。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) is a compelling long-term play on the secular growth trend of digital payments as the company’s growth path is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) 是对数字支付长期增长趋势的一个引人注目的长期投资，因为该公司的增长路径在未来几年可能会保持相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Profile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司简介</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings Inc. is a leading fintech company that enables digital and mobile payments through its technology platform. Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such as<b>Visa</b>(V),<b>Mastercard</b>(MA) or<b>Adyen</b>(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股公司是一家领先的金融科技公司，通过其技术平台实现数字和移动支付。其主要竞争对手是其他支付技术公司，例如<b>签证</b>（五），<b>万事达卡</b>（马）或<b>阿迪恩</b>（OTCPK：阿迪）。它目前的市值约为3090亿美元，低于万事达卡或维萨卡。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的核心业务是为商家和消费者提供支付解决方案，业务遍及全球。截至2020年底，它拥有约3.77亿个活跃账户，其中约3.48亿个消费者账户和2900万个商户账户，比2015年底活跃账户数量增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f478cd622b0c634fd146fdf46bf0ef\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的收入来源主要来自对一些已完成的支付交易收取费用，而一般来说，它不会向消费者收取从其PayPal账户中充值或取款的费用。它还从货币兑换和从PayPal或Venmo账户到借记卡或银行账户的即时转账中产生收入。对于其商户客户，它还为中小型商户提供某些信贷产品，增加其对客户的参与度，并为可能无法从传统银行或其他贷款提供商获得贷款的客户提供融资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secular Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期增长</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于 “Visa： 尽管盈利下滑，但长期增长前景依然强劲 ”的文章中所分析的那样，全球支付行业有着非常好的增长记录，未来的增长前景也相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> During the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去几年中，消费者和企业越来越多地采用现金以外的新支付方式，电子商务的兴起也是全球数字支付的重要增长动力。根据麦肯锡的数据，近年来，该行业的收入每年大约增长 7%，2019 年总收入略低于 2 万亿美元，随着数字支付继续增加其市场份额占银行总收入的百分比，预计未来这一增长只会加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27b37a2ed30f39bff844ae07aa49ac5\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Source: McKinsey.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：麦肯锡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的领先公司之一，这一背景非常有利于PayPal的增长前景。事实上，PayPal的收入在过去五年中以 20.8% 的复合年增长率 [CAGR] 增长，这一增长率远高于全球支付行业，也高于 Visa 和万事达卡等最大竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as&nbsp;<b>American Express</b>&nbsp;(AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管最近由于冠状病毒大流行，数字支付的增长路径发生了变化，这对全球支付行业的增长产生了负面影响，但PayPal仍保持强劲的增长路径，因为其业务显然更多地接触数字交易而不是实体支付。这意味着疫情对其业务几乎没有影响，而对其他公司来说却是一个重大挫折，例如<b>美国运通</b>（AXP）或万事达卡更容易接触跨境交易。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Covid-19似乎有利于该行业的长期增长，因为去年数字支付变得更加普遍，未来人们可能会使用更少的现金进行支付交易，从而进一步加速全球数字支付的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，预计增长将迅速恢复，甚至应该高于最近的水平。根据Mordor Intelligence的数据，2021-26年期间，全球数字支付行业的收入CAGR预计为13.7%，几乎是近年来增长的两倍。这清楚地表明，数字支付是一个长期增长的行业，对于未来几年在该行业运营的公司来说是一个非常好的背景。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Taking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这种环境，PayPal显然处于非常有利的地位，可以在未来许多年内保持稳定的增长道路，成为全球向数字支付和电子商务转变的潜在赢家之一。</blockquote></p><p> Taking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一背景，PayPal在未来几年有着强劲的增长雄心也就不足为奇了，目标是到 2025 年实现超过 500 亿美元的收入（是 2020 年收入的两倍多），这得益于现有业务的增长、更高的客户参与度以及将增加PayPal总潜在市场的新产品。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal预计未来五年内活跃账户数量将增加一倍，交易量将增加两倍，考虑到其增长历史和全球支付行业强劲的增长前景，这似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828bae36490c031b69fcf87de3ef91a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着到2025年的500亿美元收入相当于2020-25年期间约20%的CAGR，表明PayPal在未来几年拥有非常好的增长前景。此外，由于该公司预计在此期间的业务利润率将略有提高，因此其盈利预计将在未来五年内以 22% 的复合年增长率增长，并产生超过 400 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务概览</b></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>关于其财务业绩，PayPal拥有非常好的记录，过去几年收入和盈利增长相当迅速。事实上，从 201 年到 2020 年，PayPal的收入复合年增长率约为 20%，盈利复合年增长率为 31%，这是一个非常令人印象深刻的成就，远胜于 Visa 和万事达卡等老牌同行。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.</p><p><blockquote>最近，公司的增长并未因冠状病毒而中断，因为电子商务和现金转移的长期增长趋势随着大流行病而加速，为公司的增长提供了非常强劲的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，PayPal在收入、销量、净新活跃账户和收益方面创下了创纪录的财务数据。事实上，PayPal的收入同比增长了 20.8%，达到 215 亿美元，这一水平非常接近 Visa 的年收入，这表明PayPal尽管是一家年轻得多的公司，但已经实现了非常大的规模。除了更高的收入外，其业务利润率和自由现金流产生也有所改善，与更多地依赖借记卡和信用卡支付的同行相比，这是一个非常好的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b1369e32917090ea7cdb92b9a2fe8a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.</p><p><blockquote>这一积极的财务表现是合理的，因为 Covid-19 导致人们转向网上购物和交易，但也得益于PayPal在今年最后一个季度推出的新产品，如购买和持有数字货币的选择权。其净利润达到42亿美元，同比增长70%，这得益于有机增长和一些投资收益，其自由现金流约为50亿美元，占收入的23%，这表明PayPal拥有非常好的现金流产生能力。</blockquote></p><p> During thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，PayPal保持了令人印象深刻的运营势头，销量同比增长50%，收入同比增长31%。活跃账户增长 21%，达到 3.92 亿个，而本季度净新增账户 1,450 万个。其营业利润率提高到 27.7%（非 GAAP），非 GAAP 每股收益同比增长 84%，自由现金流达到 15.4 亿美元，占季度收入的 25%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>对于 2021 年全年，其指引随着第一季度收益而上调，PayPal目前预计收入将增长至约 257 亿美元，按固定汇率计算，年增长率约为 20%，每股收益同比增长约 21%，自由现金流约为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，PayPal的增长势头在未来几个季度没有放缓的迹象，如果继续以这种速度增长，很有可能提前实现 2025 年的目标。</blockquote></p><p> However, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>不过，目前卖方预计不会出现这种情况，因为根据分析师的估计，未来 2-3 年的收入增长率预计将在 20-21% 左右，然后在 2024 年和 2025 年略有放缓，低于 20%。这符合PayPal自己的目标，这意味着如果该公司在未来几年继续良好地执行其增长计划，那么预估就有一些潜在的上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee830ca42c6ed20907df39e8c28786b\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SeekingAlpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>在资本分配方面，PayPal利用其现金流产生能力为多项收购提供资金，并回购了自己的股票，而资本支出相对有限，正如一家数字化运营的科技公司所预期的那样。展望未来，这一战略预计不会有太大变化，因为PayPal应继续通过PayPal风险投资公司投资金融科技创新，而股票回购将是向股东返还资本的主要方式，即使该公司可能决定在未来几年开始分配股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530c58f1461ce1f7eefb7856a4ef2d05\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的业务非常好，其增长前景非常强劲，无论是来自行业的顺风还是其自身的增长举措。我认为这是利用数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳方式之一，因为PayPal的商业模式完全专注于数字渠道，而其最接近的竞争对手 Visa 或万事达卡仍然严重依赖实体交易。</blockquote></p><p> This profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到PayPal目前的远期市盈率约为 57 倍，而 Visa 和万事达卡的远期市盈率在 42-47 倍之间，这一概况证明了PayPal的溢价估值是合理的。关于我的个人投资组合，我最近重新平衡了我的仓位，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题上的最大持股，因为我认为这家公司是该行业中非常引人注目的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry.</li>  <li>Its growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any sign of slowing down, making its 2025 targets quite achievable.</li>  <li>The premium valuation to Visa or Mastercard is justified and PayPal is now my largest holding in the digital payments theme.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4976c13e5ffab4c5035b08d60831ed\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal是一家领先的金融科技公司，从数字支付行业的长期增长趋势中受益匪浅。</li><li>其增长历史令人印象深刻，而且势头没有放缓的迹象，这使得其 2025 年的目标完全可以实现。</li><li>Visa 或万事达卡的溢价估值是合理的，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题中最大的持股。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) is a compelling long-term play on the secular growth trend of digital payments as the company’s growth path is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) 是对数字支付长期增长趋势的一个引人注目的长期投资，因为该公司的增长路径在未来几年可能会保持相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Profile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司简介</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings Inc. is a leading fintech company that enables digital and mobile payments through its technology platform. Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such as<b>Visa</b>(V),<b>Mastercard</b>(MA) or<b>Adyen</b>(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股公司是一家领先的金融科技公司，通过其技术平台实现数字和移动支付。其主要竞争对手是其他支付技术公司，例如<b>签证</b>（五），<b>万事达卡</b>（马）或<b>阿迪恩</b>（OTCPK：阿迪）。它目前的市值约为3090亿美元，低于万事达卡或维萨卡。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的核心业务是为商家和消费者提供支付解决方案，业务遍及全球。截至2020年底，它拥有约3.77亿个活跃账户，其中约3.48亿个消费者账户和2900万个商户账户，比2015年底活跃账户数量增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f478cd622b0c634fd146fdf46bf0ef\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的收入来源主要来自对一些已完成的支付交易收取费用，而一般来说，它不会向消费者收取从其PayPal账户中充值或取款的费用。它还从货币兑换和从PayPal或Venmo账户到借记卡或银行账户的即时转账中产生收入。对于其商户客户，它还为中小型商户提供某些信贷产品，增加其对客户的参与度，并为可能无法从传统银行或其他贷款提供商获得贷款的客户提供融资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secular Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期增长</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前一篇关于 “Visa： 尽管盈利下滑，但长期增长前景依然强劲 ”的文章中所分析的那样，全球支付行业有着非常好的增长记录，未来的增长前景也相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> During the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去几年中，消费者和企业越来越多地采用现金以外的新支付方式，电子商务的兴起也是全球数字支付的重要增长动力。根据麦肯锡的数据，近年来，该行业的收入每年大约增长 7%，2019 年总收入略低于 2 万亿美元，随着数字支付继续增加其市场份额占银行总收入的百分比，预计未来这一增长只会加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27b37a2ed30f39bff844ae07aa49ac5\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Source: McKinsey.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：麦肯锡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的领先公司之一，这一背景非常有利于PayPal的增长前景。事实上，PayPal的收入在过去五年中以 20.8% 的复合年增长率 [CAGR] 增长，这一增长率远高于全球支付行业，也高于 Visa 和万事达卡等最大竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as&nbsp;<b>American Express</b>&nbsp;(AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管最近由于冠状病毒大流行，数字支付的增长路径发生了变化，这对全球支付行业的增长产生了负面影响，但PayPal仍保持强劲的增长路径，因为其业务显然更多地接触数字交易而不是实体支付。这意味着疫情对其业务几乎没有影响，而对其他公司来说却是一个重大挫折，例如<b>美国运通</b>（AXP）或万事达卡更容易接触跨境交易。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Covid-19似乎有利于该行业的长期增长，因为去年数字支付变得更加普遍，未来人们可能会使用更少的现金进行支付交易，从而进一步加速全球数字支付的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，预计增长将迅速恢复，甚至应该高于最近的水平。根据Mordor Intelligence的数据，2021-26年期间，全球数字支付行业的收入CAGR预计为13.7%，几乎是近年来增长的两倍。这清楚地表明，数字支付是一个长期增长的行业，对于未来几年在该行业运营的公司来说是一个非常好的背景。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Taking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这种环境，PayPal显然处于非常有利的地位，可以在未来许多年内保持稳定的增长道路，成为全球向数字支付和电子商务转变的潜在赢家之一。</blockquote></p><p> Taking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一背景，PayPal在未来几年有着强劲的增长雄心也就不足为奇了，目标是到 2025 年实现超过 500 亿美元的收入（是 2020 年收入的两倍多），这得益于现有业务的增长、更高的客户参与度以及将增加PayPal总潜在市场的新产品。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal预计未来五年内活跃账户数量将增加一倍，交易量将增加两倍，考虑到其增长历史和全球支付行业强劲的增长前景，这似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828bae36490c031b69fcf87de3ef91a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着到2025年的500亿美元收入相当于2020-25年期间约20%的CAGR，表明PayPal在未来几年拥有非常好的增长前景。此外，由于该公司预计在此期间的业务利润率将略有提高，因此其盈利预计将在未来五年内以 22% 的复合年增长率增长，并产生超过 400 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务概览</b></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>关于其财务业绩，PayPal拥有非常好的记录，过去几年收入和盈利增长相当迅速。事实上，从 201 年到 2020 年，PayPal的收入复合年增长率约为 20%，盈利复合年增长率为 31%，这是一个非常令人印象深刻的成就，远胜于 Visa 和万事达卡等老牌同行。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.</p><p><blockquote>最近，公司的增长并未因冠状病毒而中断，因为电子商务和现金转移的长期增长趋势随着大流行病而加速，为公司的增长提供了非常强劲的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，PayPal在收入、销量、净新活跃账户和收益方面创下了创纪录的财务数据。事实上，PayPal的收入同比增长了 20.8%，达到 215 亿美元，这一水平非常接近 Visa 的年收入，这表明PayPal尽管是一家年轻得多的公司，但已经实现了非常大的规模。除了更高的收入外，其业务利润率和自由现金流产生也有所改善，与更多地依赖借记卡和信用卡支付的同行相比，这是一个非常好的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b1369e32917090ea7cdb92b9a2fe8a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.</p><p><blockquote>这一积极的财务表现是合理的，因为 Covid-19 导致人们转向网上购物和交易，但也得益于PayPal在今年最后一个季度推出的新产品，如购买和持有数字货币的选择权。其净利润达到42亿美元，同比增长70%，这得益于有机增长和一些投资收益，其自由现金流约为50亿美元，占收入的23%，这表明PayPal拥有非常好的现金流产生能力。</blockquote></p><p> During thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，PayPal保持了令人印象深刻的运营势头，销量同比增长50%，收入同比增长31%。活跃账户增长 21%，达到 3.92 亿个，而本季度净新增账户 1,450 万个。其营业利润率提高到 27.7%（非 GAAP），非 GAAP 每股收益同比增长 84%，自由现金流达到 15.4 亿美元，占季度收入的 25%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>对于 2021 年全年，其指引随着第一季度收益而上调，PayPal目前预计收入将增长至约 257 亿美元，按固定汇率计算，年增长率约为 20%，每股收益同比增长约 21%，自由现金流约为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，PayPal的增长势头在未来几个季度没有放缓的迹象，如果继续以这种速度增长，很有可能提前实现 2025 年的目标。</blockquote></p><p> However, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>不过，目前卖方预计不会出现这种情况，因为根据分析师的估计，未来 2-3 年的收入增长率预计将在 20-21% 左右，然后在 2024 年和 2025 年略有放缓，低于 20%。这符合PayPal自己的目标，这意味着如果该公司在未来几年继续良好地执行其增长计划，那么预估就有一些潜在的上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee830ca42c6ed20907df39e8c28786b\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SeekingAlpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>在资本分配方面，PayPal利用其现金流产生能力为多项收购提供资金，并回购了自己的股票，而资本支出相对有限，正如一家数字化运营的科技公司所预期的那样。展望未来，这一战略预计不会有太大变化，因为PayPal应继续通过PayPal风险投资公司投资金融科技创新，而股票回购将是向股东返还资本的主要方式，即使该公司可能决定在未来几年开始分配股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530c58f1461ce1f7eefb7856a4ef2d05\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的业务非常好，其增长前景非常强劲，无论是来自行业的顺风还是其自身的增长举措。我认为这是利用数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳方式之一，因为PayPal的商业模式完全专注于数字渠道，而其最接近的竞争对手 Visa 或万事达卡仍然严重依赖实体交易。</blockquote></p><p> This profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到PayPal目前的远期市盈率约为 57 倍，而 Visa 和万事达卡的远期市盈率在 42-47 倍之间，这一概况证明了PayPal的溢价估值是合理的。关于我的个人投资组合，我最近重新平衡了我的仓位，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题上的最大持股，因为我认为这家公司是该行业中非常引人注目的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434455-paypal-best-play-on-secular-growth-trend-of-digital-payments\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434455-paypal-best-play-on-secular-growth-trend-of-digital-payments","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141995531","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry.\nIts growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any sign of slowing down, making its 2025 targets quite achievable.\nThe premium valuation to Visa or Mastercard is justified and PayPal is now my largest holding in the digital payments theme.\n\nJasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nPayPal(PYPL) is a compelling long-term play on the secular growth trend of digital payments as the company’s growth path is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years.\nCompany Profile\nPayPal Holdings Inc. is a leading fintech company that enables digital and mobile payments through its technology platform. Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such asVisa(V),Mastercard(MA) orAdyen(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.\nPayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.\nSource: PayPal.\nThe company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.\nSecular Growth\nAs I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.\nDuring the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.\nSource: McKinsey.\nThis background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.\nMoreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as American Express (AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.\nNevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.\nOver the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.\nTaking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.\nTaking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.\nPayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.\nSource: PayPal.\nThis means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.\nFinancial Overview\nRegarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.\nMore recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.\nIn 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.\nSource: PayPal.\nThis positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.\nDuring thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.\nFor the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.\nThis clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.\nHowever, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.\nSource: SeekingAlpha.\nRegarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.\nSource: PayPal.\nConclusion\nPayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.\nThis profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187106505,"gmtCreate":1623745047807,"gmtModify":1634029237885,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187106505","repostId":"1122638224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185259105,"gmtCreate":1623655730807,"gmtModify":1634030580779,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing!","listText":"Thanks for sharing!","text":"Thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185259105","repostId":"1122505915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185250710,"gmtCreate":1623655702930,"gmtModify":1634030581027,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing!","listText":"Thanks for sharing!","text":"Thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185250710","repostId":"2142250206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185225187,"gmtCreate":1623655334849,"gmtModify":1634030583816,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185225187","repostId":"2142422555","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185222761,"gmtCreate":1623655313353,"gmtModify":1634030584186,"author":{"id":"3578570871235568","authorId":"3578570871235568","name":"Naixiy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d41a1a3870fdb91425fdbef796d665f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570871235568","authorIdStr":"3578570871235568"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes these are great!","listText":"Yes these are great!","text":"Yes these are great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185222761","repostId":"1108874297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108874297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623648201,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108874297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Looking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108874297","media":"Motley Fool ","summary":"These tech leaders are seeing business trends pick up and they trade at reasonable valuations.","content":"<p>The&nbsp;<b>NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector</b>&nbsp;index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>纳斯达克-100技术板块</b>该指数在过去五年中表现出色，回报率为 237%。但今年迄今为止，从昂贵的成长型股票到价值型股票的转变导致许多在 2020 年表现优异的科技公司的波动性更高。</blockquote></p><p> Two stocks that are bucking that trend are&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Dell Technologies</b>(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>两只逆势而上的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）和<b>戴尔科技</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）。这就是为什么这些股票在 2021 年可能有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d661948bdc8e3c30fae86266abb43f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020&nbsp;as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet 的股价跑赢了大盘，今年迄今已上涨 42%。这家在线科技巨头最初报告称，由于疫情放缓了数字广告支出，而数字广告支出推动了谷歌搜索和YouTube的大部分收入，2020年增长缓慢。但广告支出在过去几个季度一直在强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter.&nbsp;More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度营收同比增长34%，高于去年同期的15%，越来越多的人依靠搜索来查找疫苗信息和寻找工作，这正在提振谷歌在搜索业务的广告收入。随着越来越多的人转向视频平台观看评论和购买产品，YouTube广告支出也在上升。</blockquote></p><p> During the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"</p><p><blockquote>在第一季度财报看涨期权上，Alphabet 首席商务官 Philipp Schindler 表示：“我们看到 TrueView 的动作广告发展势头强劲，使用该格式的广告商数量在过去一年中翻了一番。”</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall.&nbsp;This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,<b>Microsoft</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet也是蓬勃发展的云服务市场的领导者，谷歌云收入同比激增 46%。这一业绩值得注意的是，谷歌云的增长速度超过了整个云市场。这对于继续落后于领导者的谷歌来说是一个重要的市场份额增长，<b>微软</b>和<b>亚马逊</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Overall, Alphabet has a wide&nbsp;competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，Alphabet拥有广泛的竞争护城河，拥有庞大的用户群，每天都依赖 Gmail、谷歌地图、搜索和 YouTube。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当然，政府监管在这里是一个长期威胁。Alphabet刚刚与法国监管机构达成和解，将因反垄断纠纷支付 2.7 亿美元罚款。但这种监管风险似乎已经体现在该股的估值上。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect this&nbsp;FAANG stock&nbsp;to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这只 FAANG 股票未来五年每股收益的年化增长率将达到 21%，这足以支撑该股当前价格下 28.7 的远期市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Dell Technologies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 戴尔科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter,&nbsp;the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者还记得几十年前个人电脑繁荣时期的戴尔。虽然该公司受益于第一季度健康的个人电脑市场，但投资者应考虑购买股票的原因是戴尔信息技术业务的发展势头，以及即将到来的其他催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> After posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 财年上半年收入下降 1% 后，戴尔在 2021 财年第四季度收入加速至 9%，在 2022 财年第一季度收入加速至 12%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>首席运营官杰夫·克拉克 (Jeff Clarke) 在收益报告中表示：“全球数字化转型大幅加速，您可以从我们的业绩中看到这一点，第一季度收入达到创纪录的 245 亿美元。”</blockquote></p><p> The stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic.&nbsp;But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.</p><p><blockquote>该股较一年前的低点翻了一番，反映出该公司走出疫情后前景有所改善。但出于几个原因，它仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> First, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January.&nbsp;Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense.&nbsp;The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.</p><p><blockquote>首先，戴尔正在迅速偿还债务，截至 4 月底，戴尔的债务为 379 亿美元，低于 1 月底的 416 亿美元。债务减少不仅降低了戴尔的财务风险，还促进了盈利增长，因为债务减少也意味着利息支出减少。最近债务的减少使上季度的利息支出减少了约 1.62 亿美元，净利润增长了 59%。</blockquote></p><p> Dell is also spinning off its 81%&nbsp;interest in&nbsp;<b>VMware</b>, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔还将剥离其 81% 的股权<b>VMware</b>这将提供93亿至97亿美元的收入，以加速债务的减少。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates.&nbsp;A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.</p><p><blockquote>最终，估值才是最重要的。该股的市盈率较低，为预期收益的12倍。业务增长的改善、债务的降低和便宜的市盈率的结合使其成为现在考虑购买的顶级科技股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys<blockquote>寻找科技股？这 2 件物超所值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The&nbsp;<b>NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector</b>&nbsp;index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这个<b>纳斯达克-100技术板块</b>该指数在过去五年中表现出色，回报率为 237%。但今年迄今为止，从昂贵的成长型股票到价值型股票的转变导致许多在 2020 年表现优异的科技公司的波动性更高。</blockquote></p><p> Two stocks that are bucking that trend are&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Dell Technologies</b>(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>两只逆势而上的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）和<b>戴尔科技</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）。这就是为什么这些股票在 2021 年可能有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d661948bdc8e3c30fae86266abb43f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020&nbsp;as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet 的股价跑赢了大盘，今年迄今已上涨 42%。这家在线科技巨头最初报告称，由于疫情放缓了数字广告支出，而数字广告支出推动了谷歌搜索和YouTube的大部分收入，2020年增长缓慢。但广告支出在过去几个季度一直在强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter.&nbsp;More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度营收同比增长34%，高于去年同期的15%，越来越多的人依靠搜索来查找疫苗信息和寻找工作，这正在提振谷歌在搜索业务的广告收入。随着越来越多的人转向视频平台观看评论和购买产品，YouTube广告支出也在上升。</blockquote></p><p> During the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"</p><p><blockquote>在第一季度财报看涨期权上，Alphabet 首席商务官 Philipp Schindler 表示：“我们看到 TrueView 的动作广告发展势头强劲，使用该格式的广告商数量在过去一年中翻了一番。”</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall.&nbsp;This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,<b>Microsoft</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet也是蓬勃发展的云服务市场的领导者，谷歌云收入同比激增 46%。这一业绩值得注意的是，谷歌云的增长速度超过了整个云市场。这对于继续落后于领导者的谷歌来说是一个重要的市场份额增长，<b>微软</b>和<b>亚马逊</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Overall, Alphabet has a wide&nbsp;competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，Alphabet拥有广泛的竞争护城河，拥有庞大的用户群，每天都依赖 Gmail、谷歌地图、搜索和 YouTube。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当然，政府监管在这里是一个长期威胁。Alphabet刚刚与法国监管机构达成和解，将因反垄断纠纷支付 2.7 亿美元罚款。但这种监管风险似乎已经体现在该股的估值上。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect this&nbsp;FAANG stock&nbsp;to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这只 FAANG 股票未来五年每股收益的年化增长率将达到 21%，这足以支撑该股当前价格下 28.7 的远期市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Dell Technologies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 戴尔科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter,&nbsp;the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者还记得几十年前个人电脑繁荣时期的戴尔。虽然该公司受益于第一季度健康的个人电脑市场，但投资者应考虑购买股票的原因是戴尔信息技术业务的发展势头，以及即将到来的其他催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> After posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 财年上半年收入下降 1% 后，戴尔在 2021 财年第四季度收入加速至 9%，在 2022 财年第一季度收入加速至 12%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>首席运营官杰夫·克拉克 (Jeff Clarke) 在收益报告中表示：“全球数字化转型大幅加速，您可以从我们的业绩中看到这一点，第一季度收入达到创纪录的 245 亿美元。”</blockquote></p><p> The stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic.&nbsp;But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.</p><p><blockquote>该股较一年前的低点翻了一番，反映出该公司走出疫情后前景有所改善。但出于几个原因，它仍有可能走高。</blockquote></p><p> First, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January.&nbsp;Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense.&nbsp;The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.</p><p><blockquote>首先，戴尔正在迅速偿还债务，截至 4 月底，戴尔的债务为 379 亿美元，低于 1 月底的 416 亿美元。债务减少不仅降低了戴尔的财务风险，还促进了盈利增长，因为债务减少也意味着利息支出减少。最近债务的减少使上季度的利息支出减少了约 1.62 亿美元，净利润增长了 59%。</blockquote></p><p> Dell is also spinning off its 81%&nbsp;interest in&nbsp;<b>VMware</b>, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔还将剥离其 81% 的股权<b>VMware</b>这将提供93亿至97亿美元的收入，以加速债务的减少。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates.&nbsp;A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.</p><p><blockquote>最终，估值才是最重要的。该股的市盈率较低，为预期收益的12倍。业务增长的改善、债务的降低和便宜的市盈率的结合使其成为现在考虑购买的顶级科技股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/\">Motley Fool </a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","DELL":"戴尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108874297","content_text":"The NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.\nTwo stocks that are bucking that trend are Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Dell Technologies(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Alphabet\nAlphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020 as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.\nIn the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter. More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.\nDuring the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"\nAlphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall. This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,Microsoft and Amazon.\nOverall, Alphabet has a wide competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.\nOf course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.\nAnalysts expect this FAANG stock to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.\n2. Dell Technologies\nMany investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter, the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.\nAfter posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.\n\"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.\nThe stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic. But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.\nFirst, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January. Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense. The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.\nDell is also spinning off its 81% interest in VMware, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.\nUltimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates. A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"DELL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}