Naixiy
2021-06-14
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PayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote>
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Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such as<b>Visa</b>(V),<b>Mastercard</b>(MA) or<b>Adyen</b>(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股公司是一家领先的金融科技公司，通过其技术平台实现数字和移动支付。其主要竞争对手是其他支付技术公司，如<b>签证</b>(V)，<b>万事达卡</b>（MA）或<b>Adyen</b>（OTCPK：ADYEY）。它目前的市值约为3090亿美元，低于万事达卡或Visa。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的核心业务是向商家和消费者提供支付解决方案，业务遍及全球。截至2020年底，其拥有约3.77亿活跃账户，其中约3.48亿消费者账户和2900万商家账户，是2015年底活跃账户数量的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f478cd622b0c634fd146fdf46bf0ef\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的收入来源主要来自对一些已完成的支付交易收取费用，而通常不会向消费者收取从其PayPal账户中提供资金或提款的费用。它还通过货币兑换和从PayPal或Venmo账户到借记卡或银行账户的即时转账产生收入。对于其商户客户，它还为中小型商户提供某些信贷产品，增加其客户参与度，并为可能无法从传统银行或其他贷款提供商获得贷款的客户提供融资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secular Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期增长</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇关于“Visa：尽管盈利下降，长期增长前景依然强劲”的文章中所分析的那样，全球支付行业拥有非常好的增长记录，未来的增长前景也相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> During the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去几年中，消费者和企业越来越多地采用现金以外的新支付方式，电子商务的兴起也是全球数字支付的重要增长动力。根据麦肯锡的数据，近年来该行业的收入以每年约7%的速度增长，2019年总额略低于2万亿美元，而且随着数字支付继续增加，这种增长预计未来只会加速。市场份额占银行总收入的百分比。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27b37a2ed30f39bff844ae07aa49ac5\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Source: McKinsey.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：麦肯锡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的领先公司之一，这一背景非常支持PayPal的增长前景。事实上，PayPal的收入在过去五年中以20.8%的复合年增长率[CAGR]增长，远高于全球支付行业的增长率，也高于Visa和MasterCard等最大竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as <b>American Express</b> (AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.</p><p><blockquote>此外，虽然最近由于冠状病毒大流行，数字支付的增长路径发生了变化，这对全球支付行业的增长产生了负面影响，但PayPal仍然处于强劲的增长路径上，因为其业务显然更多地暴露于数字交易而不是实物支付。这意味着疫情几乎没有影响其业务，而对其他公司来说却是一个重大挫折，例如<b>美国运通</b>（AXP）或万事达卡更容易进行跨境交易。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，新冠肺炎似乎对该行业的长期增长是积极的，因为去年数字支付被更多地采用，人们在未来可能会减少使用现金进行支付交易，从而进一步加速全球数字支付的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在未来几年，预计增长将相当迅速地恢复，甚至应该高于最近的过去。根据Mordor Intelligence的数据，预计2021-26年全球数字支付行业的收入CAGR将达到13.7%，几乎是近年来增长的两倍。这清楚地表明，数字支付是一个长期增长的行业，对于未来几年在该行业运营的公司来说是一个非常好的背景。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Taking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这种环境，PayPal显然处于非常有利的地位，可以在未来许多年保持稳健的增长道路，有可能成为全球向数字支付和电子商务转变的主要赢家之一。</blockquote></p><p> Taking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一背景，PayPal在未来几年有着强烈的增长雄心也就不足为奇了，其目标是到2025年通过现有业务的增长、更高的客户创造超过500亿美元的收入（是2020年收入的两倍多）参与度和新产品将增加PayPal的总目标市场。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal预计在未来五年内将活跃账户数量增加一倍，交易量增加两倍，考虑到其增长历史和全球支付行业的强劲增长前景，这似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828bae36490c031b69fcf87de3ef91a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着到2025年收入将达到500亿美元，2020-25年的复合年增长率约为20%，这表明PayPal在未来几年具有非常好的增长前景。此外，由于该公司预计在此期间其业务利润率将略有提高，预计未来五年其盈利将以22%的复合年增长率增长，并产生超过400亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>就其财务业绩而言，PayPal拥有非常良好的业绩记录，过去几年的收入和盈利增长相当快。事实上，从201年到2020年，PayPal的收入复合年增长率约为20%，盈利复合年增长率为31%，这是一项非常令人印象深刻的成就，远好于Visa和MasterCard等老牌同行。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.</p><p><blockquote>最近，该公司的增长并未因冠状病毒而中断，因为电子商务和现金置换的长期增长趋势随着疫情而加速，成为该公司增长的强劲推动力。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，PayPal在收入、销量、净新增活跃账户和盈利方面创下了创纪录的财务数据。事实上，PayPal的收入同比增长20.8%，达到215亿美元，这一水平非常接近Visa的年收入，这表明PayPal尽管是一家年轻得多的公司，但规模却非常大。除了收入增加之外，其业务利润率和自由现金流生成也有所改善，与更依赖借记卡和信用卡支付的同行相比，这是一个非常好的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b1369e32917090ea7cdb92b9a2fe8a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.</p><p><blockquote>这种积极的财务表现是合理的，因为Covid-19导致人们转向在线购物和交易，但也得益于PayPal在今年最后一个季度推出的新产品，例如购买和持有数字货币的选项。在有机增长和部分投资收益的推动下，其净利润达42亿美元，同比增长70%，自由现金流约为50亿美元，占收入的23%，这表明PayPal拥有非常好的现金流生成能力。</blockquote></p><p> During thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，PayPal保持了令人印象深刻的运营势头，销量同比增长50%，收入同比增长31%。活跃账户增长21%，达到3.92亿，本季度净新增账户1450万。其营业利润率提高至27.7%（非GAAP），非GAAP每股收益同比增长84%，自由现金流达15.4亿美元，占季度收入的25%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年全年，其指引随着第一季度收益而上调，PayPal目前预计收入将增长至约257亿美元，按固定汇率计算，年增长率约为20%，每股收益同比增长约21%，自由现金流约为60亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，PayPal的增长势头在未来几个季度没有显示出任何放缓的迹象，如果继续以这种速度增长，很可能会提前实现2025年的目标。</blockquote></p><p> However, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，目前卖方预计不会出现这种情况，因为根据分析师的估计，未来2-3年收入增长预计在20-21%左右，然后略有放缓至20%以下。2024年和2025年。这符合PayPal自己的目标，这意味着如果它在未来几年继续良好地执行其增长计划，估计还有一些潜在的上行空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee830ca42c6ed20907df39e8c28786b\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>在资本配置方面，PayPal百货利用其现金流产生能力为多项收购和回购自己的股票提供资金，而资本支出支出相对有限，正如一家数字化运营的科技公司所预期的那样。展望未来，这一战略预计不会发生太大变化，因为PayPal应该继续通过PayPal风险投资公司投资金融科技创新，而股票回购将是向股东返还资本的主要方式，尽管该公司可能决定在未来几年开始分配股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530c58f1461ce1f7eefb7856a4ef2d05\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal拥有非常好的业务，其增长前景非常强劲，这既来自行业推动力，也来自其自身的增长举措。我认为这是发挥数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳方式之一，因为PayPal的商业模式完全专注于数字渠道，而其最接近的竞争对手Visa或Mastercard仍然严重依赖实体交易。</blockquote></p><p> This profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到PayPal目前的预期市盈率约为57倍，而Visa和万事达卡的市盈率在42-47倍之间，这一情况证明了其溢价估值的合理性。关于我的个人投资组合，我最近重新平衡了我的头寸，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题上最大的持股，因为我认为这家公司是该行业中非常引人注目的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments<blockquote>PayPal：数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳剧本之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry.</li> <li>Its growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any sign of slowing down, making its 2025 targets quite achievable.</li> <li>The premium valuation to Visa or Mastercard is justified and PayPal is now my largest holding in the digital payments theme.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4976c13e5ffab4c5035b08d60831ed\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal是一家领先的金融科技公司，从数字支付行业的长期增长趋势中受益匪浅。</li><li>其增长历史令人印象深刻，而且势头没有任何放缓的迹象，这使得其2025年的目标完全可以实现。</li><li>Visa或Mastercard的溢价估值是合理的，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题中最大的持股。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal</b>(PYPL) is a compelling long-term play on the secular growth trend of digital payments as the company’s growth path is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal</b>（PYPL）是数字支付长期增长趋势中引人注目的长期投资，因为该公司的增长路径在未来几年可能会保持相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Profile</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司简介</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings Inc. is a leading fintech company that enables digital and mobile payments through its technology platform. Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such as<b>Visa</b>(V),<b>Mastercard</b>(MA) or<b>Adyen</b>(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股公司是一家领先的金融科技公司，通过其技术平台实现数字和移动支付。其主要竞争对手是其他支付技术公司，如<b>签证</b>(V)，<b>万事达卡</b>（MA）或<b>Adyen</b>（OTCPK：ADYEY）。它目前的市值约为3090亿美元，低于万事达卡或Visa。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的核心业务是向商家和消费者提供支付解决方案，业务遍及全球。截至2020年底，其拥有约3.77亿活跃账户，其中约3.48亿消费者账户和2900万商家账户，是2015年底活跃账户数量的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f478cd622b0c634fd146fdf46bf0ef\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的收入来源主要来自对一些已完成的支付交易收取费用，而通常不会向消费者收取从其PayPal账户中提供资金或提款的费用。它还通过货币兑换和从PayPal或Venmo账户到借记卡或银行账户的即时转账产生收入。对于其商户客户，它还为中小型商户提供某些信贷产品，增加其客户参与度，并为可能无法从传统银行或其他贷款提供商获得贷款的客户提供融资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secular Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期增长</b></blockquote></p><p> As I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇关于“Visa：尽管盈利下降，长期增长前景依然强劲”的文章中所分析的那样，全球支付行业拥有非常好的增长记录，未来的增长前景也相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> During the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去几年中，消费者和企业越来越多地采用现金以外的新支付方式，电子商务的兴起也是全球数字支付的重要增长动力。根据麦肯锡的数据，近年来该行业的收入以每年约7%的速度增长，2019年总额略低于2万亿美元，而且随着数字支付继续增加，这种增长预计未来只会加速。市场份额占银行总收入的百分比。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27b37a2ed30f39bff844ae07aa49ac5\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>Source: McKinsey.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：麦肯锡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的领先公司之一，这一背景非常支持PayPal的增长前景。事实上，PayPal的收入在过去五年中以20.8%的复合年增长率[CAGR]增长，远高于全球支付行业的增长率，也高于Visa和MasterCard等最大竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as <b>American Express</b> (AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.</p><p><blockquote>此外，虽然最近由于冠状病毒大流行，数字支付的增长路径发生了变化，这对全球支付行业的增长产生了负面影响，但PayPal仍然处于强劲的增长路径上，因为其业务显然更多地暴露于数字交易而不是实物支付。这意味着疫情几乎没有影响其业务，而对其他公司来说却是一个重大挫折，例如<b>美国运通</b>（AXP）或万事达卡更容易进行跨境交易。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，新冠肺炎似乎对该行业的长期增长是积极的，因为去年数字支付被更多地采用，人们在未来可能会减少使用现金进行支付交易，从而进一步加速全球数字支付的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在未来几年，预计增长将相当迅速地恢复，甚至应该高于最近的过去。根据Mordor Intelligence的数据，预计2021-26年全球数字支付行业的收入CAGR将达到13.7%，几乎是近年来增长的两倍。这清楚地表明，数字支付是一个长期增长的行业，对于未来几年在该行业运营的公司来说是一个非常好的背景。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Taking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这种环境，PayPal显然处于非常有利的地位，可以在未来许多年保持稳健的增长道路，有可能成为全球向数字支付和电子商务转变的主要赢家之一。</blockquote></p><p> Taking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一背景，PayPal在未来几年有着强烈的增长雄心也就不足为奇了，其目标是到2025年通过现有业务的增长、更高的客户创造超过500亿美元的收入（是2020年收入的两倍多）参与度和新产品将增加PayPal的总目标市场。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal预计在未来五年内将活跃账户数量增加一倍，交易量增加两倍，考虑到其增长历史和全球支付行业的强劲增长前景，这似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828bae36490c031b69fcf87de3ef91a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着到2025年收入将达到500亿美元，2020-25年的复合年增长率约为20%，这表明PayPal在未来几年具有非常好的增长前景。此外，由于该公司预计在此期间其业务利润率将略有提高，预计未来五年其盈利将以22%的复合年增长率增长，并产生超过400亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.</p><p><blockquote>就其财务业绩而言，PayPal拥有非常良好的业绩记录，过去几年的收入和盈利增长相当快。事实上，从201年到2020年，PayPal的收入复合年增长率约为20%，盈利复合年增长率为31%，这是一项非常令人印象深刻的成就，远好于Visa和MasterCard等老牌同行。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.</p><p><blockquote>最近，该公司的增长并未因冠状病毒而中断，因为电子商务和现金置换的长期增长趋势随着疫情而加速，成为该公司增长的强劲推动力。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，PayPal在收入、销量、净新增活跃账户和盈利方面创下了创纪录的财务数据。事实上，PayPal的收入同比增长20.8%，达到215亿美元，这一水平非常接近Visa的年收入，这表明PayPal尽管是一家年轻得多的公司，但规模却非常大。除了收入增加之外，其业务利润率和自由现金流生成也有所改善，与更依赖借记卡和信用卡支付的同行相比，这是一个非常好的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b1369e32917090ea7cdb92b9a2fe8a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.</p><p><blockquote>这种积极的财务表现是合理的，因为Covid-19导致人们转向在线购物和交易，但也得益于PayPal在今年最后一个季度推出的新产品，例如购买和持有数字货币的选项。在有机增长和部分投资收益的推动下，其净利润达42亿美元，同比增长70%，自由现金流约为50亿美元，占收入的23%，这表明PayPal拥有非常好的现金流生成能力。</blockquote></p><p> During thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，PayPal保持了令人印象深刻的运营势头，销量同比增长50%，收入同比增长31%。活跃账户增长21%，达到3.92亿，本季度净新增账户1450万。其营业利润率提高至27.7%（非GAAP），非GAAP每股收益同比增长84%，自由现金流达15.4亿美元，占季度收入的25%。</blockquote></p><p> For the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年全年，其指引随着第一季度收益而上调，PayPal目前预计收入将增长至约257亿美元，按固定汇率计算，年增长率约为20%，每股收益同比增长约21%，自由现金流约为60亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，PayPal的增长势头在未来几个季度没有显示出任何放缓的迹象，如果继续以这种速度增长，很可能会提前实现2025年的目标。</blockquote></p><p> However, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，目前卖方预计不会出现这种情况，因为根据分析师的估计，未来2-3年收入增长预计在20-21%左右，然后略有放缓至20%以下。2024年和2025年。这符合PayPal自己的目标，这意味着如果它在未来几年继续良好地执行其增长计划，估计还有一些潜在的上行空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee830ca42c6ed20907df39e8c28786b\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Regarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>在资本配置方面，PayPal百货利用其现金流产生能力为多项收购和回购自己的股票提供资金，而资本支出支出相对有限，正如一家数字化运营的科技公司所预期的那样。展望未来，这一战略预计不会发生太大变化，因为PayPal应该继续通过PayPal风险投资公司投资金融科技创新，而股票回购将是向股东返还资本的主要方式，尽管该公司可能决定在未来几年开始分配股息。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530c58f1461ce1f7eefb7856a4ef2d05\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>Source: PayPal.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：PayPal。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal拥有非常好的业务，其增长前景非常强劲，这既来自行业推动力，也来自其自身的增长举措。我认为这是发挥数字支付长期增长趋势的最佳方式之一，因为PayPal的商业模式完全专注于数字渠道，而其最接近的竞争对手Visa或Mastercard仍然严重依赖实体交易。</blockquote></p><p> This profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到PayPal目前的预期市盈率约为57倍，而Visa和万事达卡的市盈率在42-47倍之间，这一情况证明了其溢价估值的合理性。关于我的个人投资组合，我最近重新平衡了我的头寸，PayPal现在是我在数字支付主题上最大的持股，因为我认为这家公司是该行业中非常引人注目的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434455-paypal-best-play-on-secular-growth-trend-of-digital-payments\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434455-paypal-best-play-on-secular-growth-trend-of-digital-payments","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141995531","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry.\nIts growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any sign of slowing down, making its 2025 targets quite achievable.\nThe premium valuation to Visa or Mastercard is justified and PayPal is now my largest holding in the digital payments theme.\n\nJasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nPayPal(PYPL) is a compelling long-term play on the secular growth trend of digital payments as the company’s growth path is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years.\nCompany Profile\nPayPal Holdings Inc. is a leading fintech company that enables digital and mobile payments through its technology platform. Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such asVisa(V),Mastercard(MA) orAdyen(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.\nPayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.\nSource: PayPal.\nThe company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.\nSecular Growth\nAs I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.\nDuring the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.\nSource: McKinsey.\nThis background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.\nMoreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as American Express (AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.\nNevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.\nOver the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.\nTaking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.\nTaking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.\nPayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.\nSource: PayPal.\nThis means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.\nFinancial Overview\nRegarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.\nMore recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.\nIn 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.\nSource: PayPal.\nThis positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.\nDuring thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.\nFor the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.\nThis clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.\nHowever, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.\nSource: SeekingAlpha.\nRegarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.\nSource: PayPal.\nConclusion\nPayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.\nThis profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1011,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/185228279"}
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