Trader27481的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Trader27481

Trader27481

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2021-07-07

Likes for likes!

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2021-07-07

Position

2021-07-06

$Marin(MRIN)$moooon

2021-07-06

Perfecto

2021-07-05

Position

2021-07-05

Hehe

Southwest Airlines Flight Cancellations Mount as Summer Begins<blockquote>夏季开始，西南航空航班取消数量增加</blockquote>

2021-07-05

Wowowo

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2021-07-05

Worth a lookout

2021-06-18

Like and like back!!

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2021-06-18

To the moooon

2021-04-01

This is so good

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2021-04-01

Comment on this!

Biden Infrastructure Plan Could Be Boon For These EV Stocks<blockquote>拜登基础设施计划可能有利于这些电动汽车股票</blockquote>

2021-04-01

Nice

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2021-03-20

Really

Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>

2021-03-20

$Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$it’s a good hold

2021-03-19

Nice

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2021-03-18

Upvote me

Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>

2021-03-18

Good insight

9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍沃伦·巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote>

2021-03-18

Not bad

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2021-03-18

$Apple(AAPL)$what is this

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Southwest Airlines Flight Cancellations Mount as Summer Begins<blockquote>夏季开始，西南航空航班取消数量增加</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172665496","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Southwest Airlines(NYSE:LUV)has a flight cancellation problem.\nAs air travel demand has come roaring","content":"<p><b>Southwest Airlines</b>(NYSE:LUV)has a flight cancellation problem.</p><p><blockquote><b>西南航空</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LUV）存在航班取消问题。</blockquote></p><p> As air travel demand has come roaring back in 2021, thelow-fare airlinegiant has rapidly ramped up flight volumes. However, it has struggled to operate its schedule reliably in recent weeks, because of a combination of staffing shortages, an IT outage, and bad weather. If Southwest can't get its operations back on track quickly, the airline could squander the growth opportunities it has been pursuing over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>随着2021年航空旅行需求的激增，这家低票价航空巨头迅速增加了航班量。然而，最近几周，由于人员短缺、IT中断和恶劣天气的综合影响，该公司一直在努力可靠地执行其计划。如果西南航空不能迅速让运营重回正轨，该航空公司可能会浪费过去一年一直在追求的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Flight cancellations mount</p><p><blockquote>航班取消数量增加</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Southwest Airlines canceled 2,687 flights, an average of about 90 per day. More than 34,000 of its flights were delayed. The carrier underperformed its top competitors by a wide margin on both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，西南航空取消了2687个航班，平均每天约90个。超过34,000个航班延误。该航空公司在这两个指标上的表现都远远落后于其主要竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> The trouble began around the middle of the month. A problem with a weather data provider on June 14 caused Southwest to delay more than 1,400 flights. The following day, a separate IT outage forced it to cancel about 500 flights and delay more than 1,300 others. Flight cancellations continued at an elevated rate in the subsequent days, as Southwest struggled to reposition flights and crews following these disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>麻烦大约在本月中旬开始。6月14日，天气数据提供商出现问题，导致西南航空延误了1400多个航班。第二天，另一次IT中断迫使该公司取消了约500个航班，并延误了1300多个航班。在随后的几天里，航班取消率继续上升，因为西南航空在这些中断后努力重新定位航班和机组人员。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines has continued to cancel lots of flights over the past two weeks. The airline primarily blamed bad weather. Southwest executives have also noted that while the carrier is still operating fewer flights than it did before the pandemic, its flying is spread across more routes and more cities. That has added operational complexity, making it hard to recover from weather events and other external challenges.</p><p><blockquote>过去两周，西南航空公司继续取消大量航班。航空公司主要归咎于恶劣天气。西南航空高管还指出，虽然该航空公司运营的航班数量仍比大流行前少，但其航班分布在更多航线和更多城市。这增加了运营的复杂性，使其难以从天气事件和其他外部挑战中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, Southwest's pilot union claims that management has scheduled way too many flights given current pilot availability. Indeed, while the carrier's schedule might be feasible under ideal circumstances, the rash of delays and cancellations in recent weeks suggests that management didn't build in an adequate margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，西南航空的飞行员工会声称，考虑到目前飞行员的可用性，管理层安排了太多航班。事实上，虽然该航空公司的时间表在理想情况下可能是可行的，但最近几周的大量延误和取消表明管理层没有建立足够的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> Trying to stop the bleeding</p><p><blockquote>试图止血</blockquote></p><p> It's not surprising that Southwest Airlines' flight cancellation problem has been getting worse rather than better. Last month, the airline said it planned for capacity to be just 7% below 2019 levels in June and 3% below 2019 levels in July, compared to an 18% reduction in May. Capacity typically increases sequentially from May to July as well, so Southwest has ramped up its flight schedule by more than 20% in a matter of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空的航班取消问题一直在恶化而不是好转，这并不奇怪。上个月，该航空公司表示，计划6月份的运力仅比2019年水平低7%，7月份的运力仅比2019年水平低3%，而5月份则减少了18%。从5月到7月，运力通常也会连续增加，因此西南航空在几周内将航班时刻表增加了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In an attempt to prevent things from getting worse, Southwest Airlines has offered many of its employees -- including flight attendants, ground crew, and cargo staff -- double pay to work overtime in the first seven days of July.</p><p><blockquote>为了防止情况变得更糟，西南航空向许多员工（包括空乘人员、地勤人员和货运人员）提供了7月前7天加班的双倍工资。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, it couldn't reach an agreement with its pilots for a similar arrangement. That may limit the effectiveness of this premium pay program, as pilot staffing is particularly tight right now. Over 600 Southwest pilotstook early retirement offersduring the depths of the pandemic last year. Hundreds more remain out on voluntary leaves. Moreover, many pilots need catch-up training to be cleared to fly again.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，它无法与飞行员就类似的安排达成协议。这可能会限制这一溢价计划的有效性，因为目前飞行员人员配备特别紧张。去年疫情最严重期间，超过600名西南航空飞行员接受了提前退休的提议。还有数百人自愿休假。此外，许多飞行员需要进行追赶训练才能获得再次飞行的许可。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines needs to fix this quickly</p><p><blockquote>西南航空需要迅速解决这个问题</blockquote></p><p> So far, Southwest's attempt to fix its reliability issues by throwing money at the problem doesn't seem to be working. The airline canceled 212 flights on Thursday -- more than 5% of its schedule -- and 194 on Friday, according to FlightAware. Another 40% of the carrier's flights were delayed on Thursday, and on-time performance wasn't much better on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，西南航空试图通过砸钱来解决可靠性问题的尝试似乎没有奏效。据FlightAware称，该航空公司周四取消了212个航班，占其计划的5%以上，周五取消了194个航班。周四，该航空公司另外40%的航班延误，周五的准点表现也好不到哪里去。</blockquote></p><p> The recent rash of delays and (especially) cancellations is aggravating customers, causing some to reevaluate their loyalty to Southwest Airlines. For now, these are just anecdotes, but as the number of impacted customers rises, the likelihood of significant damage to Southwest's reputation increases, too.</p><p><blockquote>最近一连串的延误和（尤其是）取消让客户感到恼火，导致一些人重新评估他们对西南航空的忠诚度。目前，这些只是轶事，但随着受影响客户数量的增加，西南航空声誉遭受重大损害的可能性也会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines has been gearing up for a big growth push recently. It has added 18 cities to its route map since early 2020 and recently exercised 34&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>737 MAX 7 options, more than doubling its scheduled aircraft deliveries for 2022. This could cause its staffing shortages to linger, unless it rapidly hires and trains additional employees. At the same time, if the carrier alienates a lot of customers in 2021, demand could fall short of its projections next year.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空最近一直在为大幅增长做准备。自2020年初以来，它已在路线图中添加了18个城市，最近行使了34个城市<b>波音公司</b>737 MAX 7选项，是其2022年预定飞机交付量的两倍多。这可能会导致其人员短缺持续存在，除非它迅速雇用和培训更多员工。与此同时，如果该航空公司在2021年疏远了大量客户，明年的需求可能会低于其预测。</blockquote></p><p> Customers typically don't care why their flight was canceled. They care about missing a meeting or the disruption to their vacation plans. Southwest Airlines can't make excuses for its poor operational performance over the past few weeks. The airline just needs to fix its operation as soon as possible. If it doesn't, the company could permanently damage its brand -- and its long-term growth prospects.</p><p><blockquote>顾客通常不关心他们的航班被取消的原因。他们关心错过会议或假期计划的中断。西南航空不能为过去几周糟糕的运营表现找借口。航空公司只需要尽快修复运营。如果不这样做，该公司可能会永久损害其品牌及其长期增长前景。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Southwest Airlines Flight Cancellations Mount as Summer Begins<blockquote>夏季开始，西南航空航班取消数量增加</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSouthwest Airlines Flight Cancellations Mount as Summer Begins<blockquote>夏季开始，西南航空航班取消数量增加</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Southwest Airlines</b>(NYSE:LUV)has a flight cancellation problem.</p><p><blockquote><b>西南航空</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LUV）存在航班取消问题。</blockquote></p><p> As air travel demand has come roaring back in 2021, thelow-fare airlinegiant has rapidly ramped up flight volumes. However, it has struggled to operate its schedule reliably in recent weeks, because of a combination of staffing shortages, an IT outage, and bad weather. If Southwest can't get its operations back on track quickly, the airline could squander the growth opportunities it has been pursuing over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>随着2021年航空旅行需求的激增，这家低票价航空巨头迅速增加了航班量。然而，最近几周，由于人员短缺、IT中断和恶劣天气的综合影响，该公司一直在努力可靠地执行其计划。如果西南航空不能迅速让运营重回正轨，该航空公司可能会浪费过去一年一直在追求的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Flight cancellations mount</p><p><blockquote>航班取消数量增加</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Southwest Airlines canceled 2,687 flights, an average of about 90 per day. More than 34,000 of its flights were delayed. The carrier underperformed its top competitors by a wide margin on both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，西南航空取消了2687个航班，平均每天约90个。超过34,000个航班延误。该航空公司在这两个指标上的表现都远远落后于其主要竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> The trouble began around the middle of the month. A problem with a weather data provider on June 14 caused Southwest to delay more than 1,400 flights. The following day, a separate IT outage forced it to cancel about 500 flights and delay more than 1,300 others. Flight cancellations continued at an elevated rate in the subsequent days, as Southwest struggled to reposition flights and crews following these disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>麻烦大约在本月中旬开始。6月14日，天气数据提供商出现问题，导致西南航空延误了1400多个航班。第二天，另一次IT中断迫使该公司取消了约500个航班，并延误了1300多个航班。在随后的几天里，航班取消率继续上升，因为西南航空在这些中断后努力重新定位航班和机组人员。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines has continued to cancel lots of flights over the past two weeks. The airline primarily blamed bad weather. Southwest executives have also noted that while the carrier is still operating fewer flights than it did before the pandemic, its flying is spread across more routes and more cities. That has added operational complexity, making it hard to recover from weather events and other external challenges.</p><p><blockquote>过去两周，西南航空公司继续取消大量航班。航空公司主要归咎于恶劣天气。西南航空高管还指出，虽然该航空公司运营的航班数量仍比大流行前少，但其航班分布在更多航线和更多城市。这增加了运营的复杂性，使其难以从天气事件和其他外部挑战中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, Southwest's pilot union claims that management has scheduled way too many flights given current pilot availability. Indeed, while the carrier's schedule might be feasible under ideal circumstances, the rash of delays and cancellations in recent weeks suggests that management didn't build in an adequate margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，西南航空的飞行员工会声称，考虑到目前飞行员的可用性，管理层安排了太多航班。事实上，虽然该航空公司的时间表在理想情况下可能是可行的，但最近几周的大量延误和取消表明管理层没有建立足够的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> Trying to stop the bleeding</p><p><blockquote>试图止血</blockquote></p><p> It's not surprising that Southwest Airlines' flight cancellation problem has been getting worse rather than better. Last month, the airline said it planned for capacity to be just 7% below 2019 levels in June and 3% below 2019 levels in July, compared to an 18% reduction in May. Capacity typically increases sequentially from May to July as well, so Southwest has ramped up its flight schedule by more than 20% in a matter of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空的航班取消问题一直在恶化而不是好转，这并不奇怪。上个月，该航空公司表示，计划6月份的运力仅比2019年水平低7%，7月份的运力仅比2019年水平低3%，而5月份则减少了18%。从5月到7月，运力通常也会连续增加，因此西南航空在几周内将航班时刻表增加了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In an attempt to prevent things from getting worse, Southwest Airlines has offered many of its employees -- including flight attendants, ground crew, and cargo staff -- double pay to work overtime in the first seven days of July.</p><p><blockquote>为了防止情况变得更糟，西南航空向许多员工（包括空乘人员、地勤人员和货运人员）提供了7月前7天加班的双倍工资。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, it couldn't reach an agreement with its pilots for a similar arrangement. That may limit the effectiveness of this premium pay program, as pilot staffing is particularly tight right now. Over 600 Southwest pilotstook early retirement offersduring the depths of the pandemic last year. Hundreds more remain out on voluntary leaves. Moreover, many pilots need catch-up training to be cleared to fly again.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，它无法与飞行员就类似的安排达成协议。这可能会限制这一溢价计划的有效性，因为目前飞行员人员配备特别紧张。去年疫情最严重期间，超过600名西南航空飞行员接受了提前退休的提议。还有数百人自愿休假。此外，许多飞行员需要进行追赶训练才能获得再次飞行的许可。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines needs to fix this quickly</p><p><blockquote>西南航空需要迅速解决这个问题</blockquote></p><p> So far, Southwest's attempt to fix its reliability issues by throwing money at the problem doesn't seem to be working. The airline canceled 212 flights on Thursday -- more than 5% of its schedule -- and 194 on Friday, according to FlightAware. Another 40% of the carrier's flights were delayed on Thursday, and on-time performance wasn't much better on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，西南航空试图通过砸钱来解决可靠性问题的尝试似乎没有奏效。据FlightAware称，该航空公司周四取消了212个航班，占其计划的5%以上，周五取消了194个航班。周四，该航空公司另外40%的航班延误，周五的准点表现也好不到哪里去。</blockquote></p><p> The recent rash of delays and (especially) cancellations is aggravating customers, causing some to reevaluate their loyalty to Southwest Airlines. For now, these are just anecdotes, but as the number of impacted customers rises, the likelihood of significant damage to Southwest's reputation increases, too.</p><p><blockquote>最近一连串的延误和（尤其是）取消让客户感到恼火，导致一些人重新评估他们对西南航空的忠诚度。目前，这些只是轶事，但随着受影响客户数量的增加，西南航空声誉遭受重大损害的可能性也会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines has been gearing up for a big growth push recently. It has added 18 cities to its route map since early 2020 and recently exercised 34&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>737 MAX 7 options, more than doubling its scheduled aircraft deliveries for 2022. This could cause its staffing shortages to linger, unless it rapidly hires and trains additional employees. At the same time, if the carrier alienates a lot of customers in 2021, demand could fall short of its projections next year.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空最近一直在为大幅增长做准备。自2020年初以来，它已在路线图中添加了18个城市，最近行使了34个城市<b>波音公司</b>737 MAX 7选项，是其2022年预定飞机交付量的两倍多。这可能会导致其人员短缺持续存在，除非它迅速雇用和培训更多员工。与此同时，如果该航空公司在2021年疏远了大量客户，明年的需求可能会低于其预测。</blockquote></p><p> Customers typically don't care why their flight was canceled. They care about missing a meeting or the disruption to their vacation plans. Southwest Airlines can't make excuses for its poor operational performance over the past few weeks. The airline just needs to fix its operation as soon as possible. If it doesn't, the company could permanently damage its brand -- and its long-term growth prospects.</p><p><blockquote>顾客通常不关心他们的航班被取消的原因。他们关心错过会议或假期计划的中断。西南航空不能为过去几周糟糕的运营表现找借口。航空公司只需要尽快修复运营。如果不这样做，该公司可能会永久损害其品牌及其长期增长前景。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/04/southwest-airlines-flight-cancellations-mount-as-s/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LUV":"西南航空"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/04/southwest-airlines-flight-cancellations-mount-as-s/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172665496","content_text":"Southwest Airlines(NYSE:LUV)has a flight cancellation problem.\nAs air travel demand has come roaring back in 2021, thelow-fare airlinegiant has rapidly ramped up flight volumes. However, it has struggled to operate its schedule reliably in recent weeks, because of a combination of staffing shortages, an IT outage, and bad weather. If Southwest can't get its operations back on track quickly, the airline could squander the growth opportunities it has been pursuing over the past year.\nFlight cancellations mount\nLast month, Southwest Airlines canceled 2,687 flights, an average of about 90 per day. More than 34,000 of its flights were delayed. The carrier underperformed its top competitors by a wide margin on both metrics.\nThe trouble began around the middle of the month. A problem with a weather data provider on June 14 caused Southwest to delay more than 1,400 flights. The following day, a separate IT outage forced it to cancel about 500 flights and delay more than 1,300 others. Flight cancellations continued at an elevated rate in the subsequent days, as Southwest struggled to reposition flights and crews following these disruptions.\nSouthwest Airlines has continued to cancel lots of flights over the past two weeks. The airline primarily blamed bad weather. Southwest executives have also noted that while the carrier is still operating fewer flights than it did before the pandemic, its flying is spread across more routes and more cities. That has added operational complexity, making it hard to recover from weather events and other external challenges.\nBy contrast, Southwest's pilot union claims that management has scheduled way too many flights given current pilot availability. Indeed, while the carrier's schedule might be feasible under ideal circumstances, the rash of delays and cancellations in recent weeks suggests that management didn't build in an adequate margin of safety.\nTrying to stop the bleeding\nIt's not surprising that Southwest Airlines' flight cancellation problem has been getting worse rather than better. Last month, the airline said it planned for capacity to be just 7% below 2019 levels in June and 3% below 2019 levels in July, compared to an 18% reduction in May. Capacity typically increases sequentially from May to July as well, so Southwest has ramped up its flight schedule by more than 20% in a matter of weeks.\nIn an attempt to prevent things from getting worse, Southwest Airlines has offered many of its employees -- including flight attendants, ground crew, and cargo staff -- double pay to work overtime in the first seven days of July.\nUnfortunately, it couldn't reach an agreement with its pilots for a similar arrangement. That may limit the effectiveness of this premium pay program, as pilot staffing is particularly tight right now. Over 600 Southwest pilotstook early retirement offersduring the depths of the pandemic last year. Hundreds more remain out on voluntary leaves. Moreover, many pilots need catch-up training to be cleared to fly again.\nSouthwest Airlines needs to fix this quickly\nSo far, Southwest's attempt to fix its reliability issues by throwing money at the problem doesn't seem to be working. The airline canceled 212 flights on Thursday -- more than 5% of its schedule -- and 194 on Friday, according to FlightAware. Another 40% of the carrier's flights were delayed on Thursday, and on-time performance wasn't much better on Friday.\nThe recent rash of delays and (especially) cancellations is aggravating customers, causing some to reevaluate their loyalty to Southwest Airlines. For now, these are just anecdotes, but as the number of impacted customers rises, the likelihood of significant damage to Southwest's reputation increases, too.\nSouthwest Airlines has been gearing up for a big growth push recently. It has added 18 cities to its route map since early 2020 and recently exercised 34 Boeing737 MAX 7 options, more than doubling its scheduled aircraft deliveries for 2022. This could cause its staffing shortages to linger, unless it rapidly hires and trains additional employees. At the same time, if the carrier alienates a lot of customers in 2021, demand could fall short of its projections next year.\nCustomers typically don't care why their flight was canceled. They care about missing a meeting or the disruption to their vacation plans. Southwest Airlines can't make excuses for its poor operational performance over the past few weeks. The airline just needs to fix its operation as soon as possible. If it doesn't, the company could permanently damage its brand -- and its long-term growth prospects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LUV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154954243,"gmtCreate":1625472470382,"gmtModify":1631885716428,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wowowo","listText":"Wowowo","text":"Wowowo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154954243","repostId":"2149387896","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154954838,"gmtCreate":1625472438424,"gmtModify":1631885716440,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worth a lookout&nbsp;","listText":"Worth a lookout&nbsp;","text":"Worth a lookout","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cb3290dad12cecaa54e6d7e2d98268","width":"750","height":"1570"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154954838","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168742201,"gmtCreate":1623984720103,"gmtModify":1631885716453,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and like back!!","listText":"Like and like back!!","text":"Like and like back!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168742201","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168741935,"gmtCreate":1623984668627,"gmtModify":1631885716463,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moooon","listText":"To the moooon","text":"To the moooon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95901df1ec48a045233a062425fcd89f","width":"750","height":"1679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168741935","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357122517,"gmtCreate":1617248806939,"gmtModify":1631885716476,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is so good&nbsp;","listText":"This is so good&nbsp;","text":"This is so 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this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357122344","repostId":"1138291357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138291357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617248516,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138291357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 11:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden Infrastructure Plan Could Be Boon For These EV Stocks<blockquote>拜登基础设施计划可能有利于这些电动汽车股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138291357","media":"yahoo","summary":"The plan, which the president will unveil today in Pittsburgh, also includes an initiative on renewable energy and the electric grid as part of a broad goal to supercharge the economy and fight climate change.In particular, it earmarks $174 billion for electric-vehicle efforts, such as EV rebates, charging ports and electric school buses.Biden's plan will \"enable automakers to spur domestic supply chains from raw materials to parts, retool factories to compete globally and support American worke","content":"<p>President Joe Biden's $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan calls for massive investments in electric vehicles and related technologies, a potential boon for EV stocks like<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) as well as charging station operators<b>ChargePoint</b>(CHPT) and<b>Blink Charging</b>(BLNK).</p><p><blockquote>乔·拜登总统的2.5万亿美元基础设施计划评级对电动汽车和相关技术进行大规模投资，这对电动汽车股票来说是一个潜在的福音，例如<b>特斯拉</b>(TSLA)以及充电站运营商<b>充电点</b>（CHPT）和<b>闪烁充电</b>（BLNK）。</blockquote></p><p>The plan, which the president will unveil today in Pittsburgh, also includes an initiative on renewable energy and the electric grid as part of a broad goal to supercharge the economy and fight climate change.</p><p><blockquote>总统今天将在匹兹堡公布该计划，还包括一项关于可再生能源和电网的倡议，作为提振经济和应对气候变化的广泛目标的一部分。</blockquote></p><p>In particular, it earmarks $174 billion for electric-vehicle efforts, such as EV rebates, charging ports and electric school buses.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，它拨款1740亿美元用于电动汽车项目，例如电动汽车回扣、充电端口和电动校车。</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan will \"enable automakers to spur domestic supply chains from raw materials to parts, retool factories to compete globally and support American workers to make batteries and EVs,\" according to afact sheeton WhiteHouse.gov.</p><p><blockquote>据WhiteHouse.gov报道，拜登的计划将“使汽车制造商能够刺激从原材料到零部件的国内供应链，重组工厂以参与全球竞争，并支持美国工人制造电池和电动汽车”。</blockquote></p><p>EV Stocks: Tax Credit Benefits</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票：税收抵免优惠</blockquote></p><p>Biden is asking Congress to keep tax incentives that encourage motorists and add point-of-sale rebates to buy EVs. Currently, consumers can claim tax credits of as much as $7,500 when they buy an electric car.</p><p><blockquote>拜登要求国会保留鼓励驾车者购买电动汽车的税收优惠政策，并增加销售点回扣。目前，消费者在购买电动汽车时可以申请高达7500美元的税收抵免。</blockquote></p><p>But Tesla and<b>General Motors</b>(GM) have already passed the 200,000 limit at which point carmakers no longer qualify for the rebates.</p><p><blockquote>但是特斯拉和<b>通用汽车</b>（通用汽车）已经超过了20万辆的限额，届时汽车制造商不再有资格获得回扣。</blockquote></p><p>Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says he expects the ceiling will be lifted. He adds that an expansion of the tax credits to the $10,000 range or potentially higher in a tiered system is possible.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯表示，他预计上限将会取消。他补充说，在分级系统中，税收抵免有可能扩大到10,000美元或更高。</blockquote></p><p>EV Initiatives: Infrastructure</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车计划：基础设施</blockquote></p><p>There are about 41,400 EV charging stations in the U.S., according to the Department of Energy, though one station can have multiple ports that can serve several cars at a time. That compares with more than 136,400 gas stations, according to GasBuddy.</p><p><blockquote>根据能源部的数据，美国大约有41,400个电动汽车充电站，尽管一个充电站可以有多个端口，一次可以为几辆汽车提供服务。据GasBuddy称，相比之下，加油站数量超过136,400个。</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan will establish grant and incentive programs for state and local governments and the private sector to build a national network of 500,000 EV chargers by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的计划将为州和地方政府以及私营部门建立拨款和激励计划，到2030年建立一个由50万个电动汽车充电器组成的全国网络。</blockquote></p><p>Ives calls this part of the plan a linchpin of these EV initiatives. \"Today there are roughly 100,000 public charging ports with another 300,000/400,000 needed over the next decade to support this groundswell EV green tidal wave for consumers/trucking.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯·评级计划的这一部分是这些电动汽车计划的关键。“如今，大约有100,000个公共充电端口，未来十年还需要300,000/400,000个，以支持消费者/卡车运输的电动汽车绿色浪潮。”</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan also calls for the replacement of 50,000 diesel transit vehicles and electrification of at least 20% of school buses. It looks to also electrify the federal fleet, including the United States Postal Service.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的计划还为更换5万辆柴油运输车辆和至少20%的校车电气化开了评级。它还有望为包括美国邮政署在内的联邦车队提供电气化。</blockquote></p><p>EV Stocks</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票</blockquote></p><p>Tesla jumped 5.1% to 667.93 on thestock market today. TSLA stock has lost more than a quarter of its value since skyrocketing to an all-time high of 900.40 intraday on Jan. 25.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉今天股市上涨5.1%，至667.93点。自1月25日盘中飙升至900.40的历史高点以来，特斯拉股价已下跌超过四分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The company is also expected to report Q4 deliveries later this week. Wall Street expects deliveries of 174,000 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司还将在本周晚些时候报告第四季度的交付情况。华尔街预计交付量为174,000辆。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, ChargePoint surged 19%. Blink Charging stock soared 11. And<b>Climate Change Crisis Rea</b>l (CLII), a blank check company that is taking EVgo public, rose 3%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，ChargePoint飙升19%。Blink Charging股价飙升11。和<b>气候变化危机</b>将EVgo上市的空白支票公司l(CLII)上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p>But legacy auto giants making a big push in EVs were down.GM stockslipped 1.8%,<b>Ford</b>(F) fell 1.7%, and German automaker<b>Volkswagen</b>(VWAGY) sank 3.8%.</p><p><blockquote>但大力推动电动汽车的传统汽车巨头股价下跌。通用汽车股价下跌1.8%，<b>福特</b>(F)下跌1.7%，德国汽车制造商<b>大众汽车</b>(VWAGY)下跌3.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Even newly public EV stocks were relatively muted.<b>Canoo</b>(GOEV) fell 2.9%,<b>Lordstown</b>(RIDE) rose 1.6%, and<b>Fisker</b>(FSR) advanced 3%.</p><p><blockquote>即使是新上市的电动汽车股票也相对低迷。<b>独木舟</b>(GOEV)下跌2.9%，<b>洛兹敦</b>(RIDE)上涨1.6%，<b>菲斯克</b>(FSR)上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden Infrastructure Plan Could Be Boon For These EV Stocks<blockquote>拜登基础设施计划可能有利于这些电动汽车股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden Infrastructure Plan Could Be Boon For These EV Stocks<blockquote>拜登基础设施计划可能有利于这些电动汽车股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-01 11:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>President Joe Biden's $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan calls for massive investments in electric vehicles and related technologies, a potential boon for EV stocks like<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) as well as charging station operators<b>ChargePoint</b>(CHPT) and<b>Blink Charging</b>(BLNK).</p><p><blockquote>乔·拜登总统的2.5万亿美元基础设施计划评级对电动汽车和相关技术进行大规模投资，这对电动汽车股票来说是一个潜在的福音，例如<b>特斯拉</b>(TSLA)以及充电站运营商<b>充电点</b>（CHPT）和<b>闪烁充电</b>（BLNK）。</blockquote></p><p>The plan, which the president will unveil today in Pittsburgh, also includes an initiative on renewable energy and the electric grid as part of a broad goal to supercharge the economy and fight climate change.</p><p><blockquote>总统今天将在匹兹堡公布该计划，还包括一项关于可再生能源和电网的倡议，作为提振经济和应对气候变化的广泛目标的一部分。</blockquote></p><p>In particular, it earmarks $174 billion for electric-vehicle efforts, such as EV rebates, charging ports and electric school buses.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，它拨款1740亿美元用于电动汽车项目，例如电动汽车回扣、充电端口和电动校车。</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan will \"enable automakers to spur domestic supply chains from raw materials to parts, retool factories to compete globally and support American workers to make batteries and EVs,\" according to afact sheeton WhiteHouse.gov.</p><p><blockquote>据WhiteHouse.gov报道，拜登的计划将“使汽车制造商能够刺激从原材料到零部件的国内供应链，重组工厂以参与全球竞争，并支持美国工人制造电池和电动汽车”。</blockquote></p><p>EV Stocks: Tax Credit Benefits</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票：税收抵免优惠</blockquote></p><p>Biden is asking Congress to keep tax incentives that encourage motorists and add point-of-sale rebates to buy EVs. Currently, consumers can claim tax credits of as much as $7,500 when they buy an electric car.</p><p><blockquote>拜登要求国会保留鼓励驾车者购买电动汽车的税收优惠政策，并增加销售点回扣。目前，消费者在购买电动汽车时可以申请高达7500美元的税收抵免。</blockquote></p><p>But Tesla and<b>General Motors</b>(GM) have already passed the 200,000 limit at which point carmakers no longer qualify for the rebates.</p><p><blockquote>但是特斯拉和<b>通用汽车</b>（通用汽车）已经超过了20万辆的限额，届时汽车制造商不再有资格获得回扣。</blockquote></p><p>Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says he expects the ceiling will be lifted. He adds that an expansion of the tax credits to the $10,000 range or potentially higher in a tiered system is possible.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯表示，他预计上限将会取消。他补充说，在分级系统中，税收抵免有可能扩大到10,000美元或更高。</blockquote></p><p>EV Initiatives: Infrastructure</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车计划：基础设施</blockquote></p><p>There are about 41,400 EV charging stations in the U.S., according to the Department of Energy, though one station can have multiple ports that can serve several cars at a time. That compares with more than 136,400 gas stations, according to GasBuddy.</p><p><blockquote>根据能源部的数据，美国大约有41,400个电动汽车充电站，尽管一个充电站可以有多个端口，一次可以为几辆汽车提供服务。据GasBuddy称，相比之下，加油站数量超过136,400个。</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan will establish grant and incentive programs for state and local governments and the private sector to build a national network of 500,000 EV chargers by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的计划将为州和地方政府以及私营部门建立拨款和激励计划，到2030年建立一个由50万个电动汽车充电器组成的全国网络。</blockquote></p><p>Ives calls this part of the plan a linchpin of these EV initiatives. \"Today there are roughly 100,000 public charging ports with another 300,000/400,000 needed over the next decade to support this groundswell EV green tidal wave for consumers/trucking.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯·评级计划的这一部分是这些电动汽车计划的关键。“如今，大约有100,000个公共充电端口，未来十年还需要300,000/400,000个，以支持消费者/卡车运输的电动汽车绿色浪潮。”</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan also calls for the replacement of 50,000 diesel transit vehicles and electrification of at least 20% of school buses. It looks to also electrify the federal fleet, including the United States Postal Service.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的计划还为更换5万辆柴油运输车辆和至少20%的校车电气化开了评级。它还有望为包括美国邮政署在内的联邦车队提供电气化。</blockquote></p><p>EV Stocks</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票</blockquote></p><p>Tesla jumped 5.1% to 667.93 on thestock market today. TSLA stock has lost more than a quarter of its value since skyrocketing to an all-time high of 900.40 intraday on Jan. 25.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉今天股市上涨5.1%，至667.93点。自1月25日盘中飙升至900.40的历史高点以来，特斯拉股价已下跌超过四分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The company is also expected to report Q4 deliveries later this week. Wall Street expects deliveries of 174,000 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司还将在本周晚些时候报告第四季度的交付情况。华尔街预计交付量为174,000辆。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, ChargePoint surged 19%. Blink Charging stock soared 11. And<b>Climate Change Crisis Rea</b>l (CLII), a blank check company that is taking EVgo public, rose 3%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，ChargePoint飙升19%。Blink Charging股价飙升11。和<b>气候变化危机</b>将EVgo上市的空白支票公司l(CLII)上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p>But legacy auto giants making a big push in EVs were down.GM stockslipped 1.8%,<b>Ford</b>(F) fell 1.7%, and German automaker<b>Volkswagen</b>(VWAGY) sank 3.8%.</p><p><blockquote>但大力推动电动汽车的传统汽车巨头股价下跌。通用汽车股价下跌1.8%，<b>福特</b>(F)下跌1.7%，德国汽车制造商<b>大众汽车</b>(VWAGY)下跌3.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Even newly public EV stocks were relatively muted.<b>Canoo</b>(GOEV) fell 2.9%,<b>Lordstown</b>(RIDE) rose 1.6%, and<b>Fisker</b>(FSR) advanced 3%.</p><p><blockquote>即使是新上市的电动汽车股票也相对低迷。<b>独木舟</b>(GOEV)下跌2.9%，<b>洛兹敦</b>(RIDE)上涨1.6%，<b>菲斯克</b>(FSR)上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/ev-stocks-winner-biden-infrastructure-plan-174-billion-investment/?src=A00220\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc.","BLNK":"Blink Charging","VWAGY":"大众汽车ADR","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/news/ev-stocks-winner-biden-infrastructure-plan-174-billion-investment/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138291357","content_text":"President Joe Biden's $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan calls for massive investments in electric vehicles and related technologies, a potential boon for EV stocks likeTesla(TSLA) as well as charging station operatorsChargePoint(CHPT) andBlink Charging(BLNK).The plan, which the president will unveil today in Pittsburgh, also includes an initiative on renewable energy and the electric grid as part of a broad goal to supercharge the economy and fight climate change.In particular, it earmarks $174 billion for electric-vehicle efforts, such as EV rebates, charging ports and electric school buses.Biden's plan will \"enable automakers to spur domestic supply chains from raw materials to parts, retool factories to compete globally and support American workers to make batteries and EVs,\" according to afact sheeton WhiteHouse.gov.EV Stocks: Tax Credit BenefitsBiden is asking Congress to keep tax incentives that encourage motorists and add point-of-sale rebates to buy EVs. Currently, consumers can claim tax credits of as much as $7,500 when they buy an electric car.But Tesla andGeneral Motors(GM) have already passed the 200,000 limit at which point carmakers no longer qualify for the rebates.Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says he expects the ceiling will be lifted. He adds that an expansion of the tax credits to the $10,000 range or potentially higher in a tiered system is possible.EV Initiatives: InfrastructureThere are about 41,400 EV charging stations in the U.S., according to the Department of Energy, though one station can have multiple ports that can serve several cars at a time. That compares with more than 136,400 gas stations, according to GasBuddy.Biden's plan will establish grant and incentive programs for state and local governments and the private sector to build a national network of 500,000 EV chargers by 2030.Ives calls this part of the plan a linchpin of these EV initiatives. \"Today there are roughly 100,000 public charging ports with another 300,000/400,000 needed over the next decade to support this groundswell EV green tidal wave for consumers/trucking.\"Biden's plan also calls for the replacement of 50,000 diesel transit vehicles and electrification of at least 20% of school buses. It looks to also electrify the federal fleet, including the United States Postal Service.EV StocksTesla jumped 5.1% to 667.93 on thestock market today. TSLA stock has lost more than a quarter of its value since skyrocketing to an all-time high of 900.40 intraday on Jan. 25.The company is also expected to report Q4 deliveries later this week. Wall Street expects deliveries of 174,000 vehicles.Meanwhile, ChargePoint surged 19%. Blink Charging stock soared 11. AndClimate Change Crisis Real (CLII), a blank check company that is taking EVgo public, rose 3%.But legacy auto giants making a big push in EVs were down.GM stockslipped 1.8%,Ford(F) fell 1.7%, and German automakerVolkswagen(VWAGY) sank 3.8%.Even newly public EV stocks were relatively muted.Canoo(GOEV) fell 2.9%,Lordstown(RIDE) rose 1.6%, andFisker(FSR) advanced 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIDE":0.9,"VWAGY":0.9,"F":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BLNK":0.9,"CLII":0.9,"GOEV":0.9,"CHPT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357126430,"gmtCreate":1617248707620,"gmtModify":1631890932039,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357126430","repostId":"1129134980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350406629,"gmtCreate":1616245189061,"gmtModify":1631890932054,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really","listText":"Really","text":"Really","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350406629","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的任何行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的任何行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350406101,"gmtCreate":1616245155003,"gmtModify":1631890169113,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEAM\">$Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$</a>it’s a good hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEAM\">$Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$</a>it’s a good hold","text":"$Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$it’s a good hold","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca304d4169dd241884cd68e9cd6a4aa","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350406101","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350929830,"gmtCreate":1616151780820,"gmtModify":1631890932063,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350929830","repostId":"2120159191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327941791,"gmtCreate":1616054719913,"gmtModify":1703496937632,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upvote me","listText":"Upvote me","text":"Upvote me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327941791","repostId":"2119971630","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119971630","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616054515,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119971630?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119971630","media":"Insider Monkey","summary":"We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitati","content":"<p>We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square, Inc</a>. (NYSE:SQ).</p><p><blockquote>我们知道，从长远来看，对冲基金会产生强劲的、经过风险调整的回报，因此模仿他们共同看好的选择对于散户投资者来说可能是一种有利可图的策略。聪明的投资者拥有数十亿美元的资产，必须进行复杂的分析，花费大量资源，并使用普通大众并不总是可用的工具。这并不意味着他们没有偶尔的巨大损失；确实如此（就像Melvin Capital最近在游戏驿站的损失一样）。然而，密切关注对冲基金活动仍然是一个好主意。考虑到这一点，由于本轮13F备案刚刚结束，让我们来看看聪明资金对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">广场公司</a>.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell?</b>&nbsp;Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的股票是买入还是卖出？</b>知名投资者变得更加乐观。近几个月看涨对冲基金持仓数量增加了16个。截至2020年第四季度末，Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）参与了89家对冲基金的投资组合。这一统计数据的历史最高值此前是73。这意味着对冲基金对该股的看涨头寸数量目前处于历史最高水平。我们的计算还显示，SQ并未跻身对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</h2>At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote><h2>对冲基金认为SQ是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</h2>截至第四季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有89家看好该股，较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>季度前。相比之下，一年前有56家对冲基金持有SQ的股票或看涨看涨期权期权。随着对冲基金情绪的波动，著名对冲基金经理的“上层”正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fe39e494f0228e0898f738c1f67842\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.</p><p><blockquote>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的最大股份由ARK Investment Management持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值15.414亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是Coatue Management，头寸为13.352亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Bares Capital Management、Lone Pine Capital和Whale Rock Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Bares Capital Management将最大的权重分配给了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ），约占其13F投资组合的21.35%。Tekne Capital Management也相对非常看好该股，将其13F股票投资组合的16.68%指定为SQ。</blockquote></p><p>As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>随着总利息的增加，特定的基金经理已经一头扎进了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。由蔡斯·科尔曼(Chase Coleman)管理的老虎全球管理有限责任公司(Tiger Global Management LLC)在Square，Inc.(NYSE：SQ)建立了最大的头寸。截至本季度末，Tiger Global Management LLC向该公司投资了8890万美元。Renaissance Technologies本季度还对该股进行了5990万美元的投资。以下基金也在新的SQ投资者之列：Christopher Lyle的SCGE Management、Paul Marshall和Ian Wace的Marshall Wace LLP，以及Michael Kharitonov和Jon David McAuliffe的Voleon Capital。</blockquote></p><p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc (NYSE:SNOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下与Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）类似的其他股票的对冲基金活动。这些股票包括奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MO）、京东公司（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）、KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">雪花</a>公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）和Crown Castle International Corp.(REIT)（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCI）。这组股票的市值最接近SQ的市值。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125cad2d7e35d8c0582071c4dd3626c9\" tg-width=\"1154\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有58.7个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为55.24亿美元。SQ的这一数字为88.19亿美元。Booking Holdings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有30个看涨对冲基金头寸。Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）不是这一组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对SQ的总体对冲基金情绪得分为77.8。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。我们的计算显示，对冲基金最受欢迎的前30只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为81.2%，跑赢标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）26个百分点。截至3月12日，这些股票在2021年上涨了7%，仍跑赢大盘1.6个百分点。对冲基金押注SQ也是正确的，因为该股自第四季度末（截至3/12）以来回报率为11.2%，表现优于市场。对冲基金因其相对看涨而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606273129822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Insider Monkey</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square, Inc</a>. (NYSE:SQ).</p><p><blockquote>我们知道，从长远来看，对冲基金会产生强劲的、经过风险调整的回报，因此模仿他们共同看好的选择对于散户投资者来说可能是一种有利可图的策略。聪明的投资者拥有数十亿美元的资产，必须进行复杂的分析，花费大量资源，并使用普通大众并不总是可用的工具。这并不意味着他们没有偶尔的巨大损失；确实如此（就像Melvin Capital最近在游戏驿站的损失一样）。然而，密切关注对冲基金活动仍然是一个好主意。考虑到这一点，由于本轮13F备案刚刚结束，让我们来看看聪明资金对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">广场公司</a>.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell?</b>&nbsp;Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的股票是买入还是卖出？</b>知名投资者变得更加乐观。近几个月看涨对冲基金持仓数量增加了16个。截至2020年第四季度末，Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）参与了89家对冲基金的投资组合。这一统计数据的历史最高值此前是73。这意味着对冲基金对该股的看涨头寸数量目前处于历史最高水平。我们的计算还显示，SQ并未跻身对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</h2>At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote><h2>对冲基金认为SQ是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</h2>截至第四季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有89家看好该股，较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>季度前。相比之下，一年前有56家对冲基金持有SQ的股票或看涨看涨期权期权。随着对冲基金情绪的波动，著名对冲基金经理的“上层”正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fe39e494f0228e0898f738c1f67842\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.</p><p><blockquote>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的最大股份由ARK Investment Management持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值15.414亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是Coatue Management，头寸为13.352亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Bares Capital Management、Lone Pine Capital和Whale Rock Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Bares Capital Management将最大的权重分配给了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ），约占其13F投资组合的21.35%。Tekne Capital Management也相对非常看好该股，将其13F股票投资组合的16.68%指定为SQ。</blockquote></p><p>As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>随着总利息的增加，特定的基金经理已经一头扎进了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。由蔡斯·科尔曼(Chase Coleman)管理的老虎全球管理有限责任公司(Tiger Global Management LLC)在Square，Inc.(NYSE：SQ)建立了最大的头寸。截至本季度末，Tiger Global Management LLC向该公司投资了8890万美元。Renaissance Technologies本季度还对该股进行了5990万美元的投资。以下基金也在新的SQ投资者之列：Christopher Lyle的SCGE Management、Paul Marshall和Ian Wace的Marshall Wace LLP，以及Michael Kharitonov和Jon David McAuliffe的Voleon Capital。</blockquote></p><p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc (NYSE:SNOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下与Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）类似的其他股票的对冲基金活动。这些股票包括奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MO）、京东公司（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）、KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">雪花</a>公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）和Crown Castle International Corp.(REIT)（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCI）。这组股票的市值最接近SQ的市值。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125cad2d7e35d8c0582071c4dd3626c9\" tg-width=\"1154\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有58.7个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为55.24亿美元。SQ的这一数字为88.19亿美元。Booking Holdings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有30个看涨对冲基金头寸。Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）不是这一组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对SQ的总体对冲基金情绪得分为77.8。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。我们的计算显示，对冲基金最受欢迎的前30只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为81.2%，跑赢标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）26个百分点。截至3月12日，这些股票在2021年上涨了7%，仍跑赢大盘1.6个百分点。对冲基金押注SQ也是正确的，因为该股自第四季度末（截至3/12）以来回报率为11.2%，表现优于市场。对冲基金因其相对看涨而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-square-sq-stock-a-buy-or-sell-924395/\">Insider Monkey</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-square-sq-stock-a-buy-or-sell-924395/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119971630","content_text":"We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ).Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell? Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from one quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW), Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327949411,"gmtCreate":1616054617333,"gmtModify":1703496934860,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good insight&nbsp;","listText":"Good insight&nbsp;","text":"Good insight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327949411","repostId":"1144305771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144305771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616052165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144305771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 15:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍沃伦·巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144305771","media":"GoBankingRates","summary":"This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.\nWhen Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—an","content":"<p>This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该接受沃伦·巴菲特的建议。</blockquote></p><p> When Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—and they should. He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a&nbsp;bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.</p><p><blockquote>当沃伦·巴菲特讲话时，全世界都会倾听——他们应该倾听。毕竟，他是有史以来最成功的投资者之一，也是世界上第四富有的人。在押注雪佛龙10周内赚了超过10亿美元后，巴菲特短暂地成为仅有的6名净资产增长到12位数的人之一，尽管他目前的净资产已回落到1000亿美元以下。他是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的首席执行官，该公司是巴菲特和他的投资伙伴查尔斯·芒格共同经营的控股公司。</blockquote></p><p> His prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.</p><p><blockquote>他对股票和市场有先见之明的评级为他赢得了“奥马哈先知”的绰号，以纪念他居住的内布拉斯加城市。巴菲特在2017年9月做出了他最引人注目的市场预测之一，当时他预测到2117年，道琼斯工业平均指数将达到100万点。</blockquote></p><p> While Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然巴菲特不会亲眼目睹他的预测是否会成真，但这反映了他对美国经济实力和美国股市长期韧性的终生信念。以下是他的一些最成功和最大的投资预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America Will Rise Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行将再次崛起</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>2011年，美国银行正遭受次贷危机的余震。由于股票交易价格低于每股7美元，而前一年为19美元，巴菲特嗅到了便宜货，购买了价值50亿美元的美国银行优先股。</blockquote></p><p> The preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.</p><p><blockquote>优先股支付了6%的高额收益率，为公司带来了3.36亿美元的年度股息。更好的是，优先股附带认股权证，允许巴菲特以每股7.14美元的价格购买7亿股美国银行股票。</blockquote></p><p> At the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.</p><p><blockquote>当时，巴菲特在年度投资信中做出了这样的预测：“我们购买7亿股美国银行股票的认股权证在到期前很可能具有巨大的价值。”当巴菲特在2017年行使认股权证时，他赚了120亿美元。如今，美国银行的交易价格约为每股37.40美元，巴菲特以每股24.24美元的平均价格购买了伯克希尔超过10.3亿股股票——这是他投资组合中的第二大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Time to Start Investing is Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在是开始投资的时候了</b></blockquote></p><p> Buffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is&nbsp;the time to start investing.”</p><p><blockquote>1974年末，当道琼斯指数低于600点时，巴菲特告诉《福布斯》杂志，他认为市场“……就像后宫里性欲过剩的男人。现在是开始投资的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> By the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”</p><p><blockquote>到采访发表时，道琼斯指数已经上涨了近15%，达到660点。巴菲特的预测是在1973年至1974年臭名昭著的熊市之后做出的。也许比其他任何预测都更突出了巴菲特“在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪”的哲学。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率将为6%</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.</p><p><blockquote>1999年，股市即将结束一场令人难以置信的上涨。从1982年开始，市场开始大幅上涨，1995年至1999年的回报率分别为37.58%、22.96%、33.36%、28.58%和21.04%。在所有这些热情中，奥马哈先知做出了一个戏剧性的、长期的、反趋势的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特自信地预测，接下来17年的股市回报将与前17年完全不同。事实上，他认为未来17年“最有可能的回报”是6%。</blockquote></p><p> By 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.</p><p><blockquote>到2016年，在17年期间结束时，股票回报率为5.9%——在如此长的时间内，这是一个令人惊讶的准确预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Index Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指数基金将跑赢对冲基金</b></blockquote></p><p> What might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&amp;P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最引人注目的预测出现在2007年，当时巴菲特提出以50万美元打赌，在接下来的10年里，如果计入费用，标普500指数的表现将优于对冲基金投资组合。Protege Partners的对冲基金经理泰德·塞德斯(Ted Seides)接受了这一赌注。</blockquote></p><p> When 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&amp;P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that&nbsp;indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.</p><p><blockquote>当2017年到来时，塞德斯是必须付钱的人。事实上，这个赌注是如此不平衡，以至于塞德斯在整个10年到期前就认输了。当时，Seides收集的基金年收益仅为2.2%，而标普500指数的年收益超过7%，因此支持了Buffett的观点，即指数化通常可以击败主动管理型基金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs is Down But Not Out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛陷入困境但并未出局</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.</p><p><blockquote>2008年9月下旬，投资银行高盛是一个受伤的巨人，陷入了它帮助制造的金融内爆的漩涡。巴菲特预测高盛不仅会生存下来，而且会蓬勃发展，因此向该公司投资了50亿美元。作为交换，高盛给了巴菲特优先股，每年的收益高达10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.</p><p><blockquote>此外，巴菲特还获得了50亿美元的认股权证，允许他以每股115美元的价格购买该股票。到2013年，巴菲特的预测以惊人的准确性实现了——他在市场低迷时投资后获利32亿美元。当然，你和你的401k可能不会像巴菲特那样获得优先认股权证地位，但如果你在巴菲特的时候扣动扳机，你仍然会赚很多钱。2008年11月，高盛的交易价格低于80美元，目前正飙升至344美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Coca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可口可乐是长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最大的股市胜利之一可以追溯到1988年开始的一项投资，那一年他首次买入可口可乐。如今，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司拥有4亿股股票，超过该公司的9%。1988年1月1日，可口可乐的交易价格为2.39美元。虽然该股经历了起起落落，但今天的交易价格仍高于每股50美元。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes&nbsp;the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”</p><p><blockquote>从很多方面来说，可口可乐是沃伦·巴菲特整个投资方法的缩影——在表现良好且您了解其商业模式的大型老牌公司中持有长期头寸。巴菲特对樱桃可乐的热爱是传奇——他在饮用百事可乐近50年后改变了。他平均每天喝五罐这种东西——营养相当于垃圾债券——总共占他每日热量摄入的25%。2015年，他对《财富》杂志说过一句名言：“我是四分之一的可口可乐。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks Are Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Another one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus</p><p><blockquote>尽管有病毒的阻碍，巴菲特的另一个更著名的预测还是实现了</blockquote></p><p> On Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.</p><p><blockquote>2017年2月27日，巴菲特对CNBC的贝基·奎克(Becky Quick)表示，“……我们并没有处于泡沫区域或类似的区域”，尽管许多市场观察人士表示当前的牛市正在变得泡沫。事实上，巴菲特继续说道，“以利率来衡量，与历史估值相比，股票实际上是便宜的。”换句话说，巴菲特预测股票被低估了，是时候再次买入了。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特做出这一预测的当天，道琼斯工业平均指数收于20,837.44点。仅仅七个多月后，道琼斯指数收于22,773.67点，涨幅为9.29%。快进到2020年3月10日，随着新冠疫情的缓解，道琼斯指数飙升至创纪录的收盘价32,297.02点。这比巴菲特下注当天该指数收盘价上涨了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Home Capital Group Is Undervalued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Home Capital Group被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.</p><p><blockquote>2017年年中，巴菲特将触角伸向美国以外，投资了加拿大银行Home Capital Group。与巴菲特的许多其他交易一样，他从一开始就在这次购买中获得了一笔不错的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特以9%至9.5%的利率借给该公司15亿美元。巴菲特还享有以低于市价20%的价格购买最多20%的公司股票的权利，并预测股票在他购买后会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.</p><p><blockquote>股票交易使他能够以每股10美元的价格收购Home Capital。2020年3月15日，其交易价格为32.50美元，这意味着巴菲特的投资加上变化将增加两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买并持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b></blockquote></p><p> One of&nbsp;Buffett’s best investments of all time&nbsp;was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特有史以来最好的投资之一是他现在经营的公司伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。1964年，该公司提出以每股11.50美元的价格购买巴菲特的股票，他同意了。后来，公司降低了报价，这迫使巴菲特不仅取消了出售，还购买了足够的股票来控制公司，并解雇了降低最初报价的经理。巴菲特用他的钱包再次预测伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股价会随着时间的推移而上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特的预言再次成真。现在，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的一股售价约为28.1万美元。作为巴菲特持有时间最长的投资，伯克希尔哈撒韦提醒投资者，“买入并持有”确实可以带来巨大收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616052142951","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍沃伦·巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍沃伦·巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">GoBankingRates</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 15:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该接受沃伦·巴菲特的建议。</blockquote></p><p> When Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—and they should. He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a&nbsp;bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.</p><p><blockquote>当沃伦·巴菲特讲话时，全世界都会倾听——他们应该倾听。毕竟，他是有史以来最成功的投资者之一，也是世界上第四富有的人。在押注雪佛龙10周内赚了超过10亿美元后，巴菲特短暂地成为仅有的6名净资产增长到12位数的人之一，尽管他目前的净资产已回落到1000亿美元以下。他是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的首席执行官，该公司是巴菲特和他的投资伙伴查尔斯·芒格共同经营的控股公司。</blockquote></p><p> His prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.</p><p><blockquote>他对股票和市场有先见之明的评级为他赢得了“奥马哈先知”的绰号，以纪念他居住的内布拉斯加城市。巴菲特在2017年9月做出了他最引人注目的市场预测之一，当时他预测到2117年，道琼斯工业平均指数将达到100万点。</blockquote></p><p> While Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然巴菲特不会亲眼目睹他的预测是否会成真，但这反映了他对美国经济实力和美国股市长期韧性的终生信念。以下是他的一些最成功和最大的投资预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America Will Rise Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行将再次崛起</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>2011年，美国银行正遭受次贷危机的余震。由于股票交易价格低于每股7美元，而前一年为19美元，巴菲特嗅到了便宜货，购买了价值50亿美元的美国银行优先股。</blockquote></p><p> The preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.</p><p><blockquote>优先股支付了6%的高额收益率，为公司带来了3.36亿美元的年度股息。更好的是，优先股附带认股权证，允许巴菲特以每股7.14美元的价格购买7亿股美国银行股票。</blockquote></p><p> At the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.</p><p><blockquote>当时，巴菲特在年度投资信中做出了这样的预测：“我们购买7亿股美国银行股票的认股权证在到期前很可能具有巨大的价值。”当巴菲特在2017年行使认股权证时，他赚了120亿美元。如今，美国银行的交易价格约为每股37.40美元，巴菲特以每股24.24美元的平均价格购买了伯克希尔超过10.3亿股股票——这是他投资组合中的第二大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Time to Start Investing is Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在是开始投资的时候了</b></blockquote></p><p> Buffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is&nbsp;the time to start investing.”</p><p><blockquote>1974年末，当道琼斯指数低于600点时，巴菲特告诉《福布斯》杂志，他认为市场“……就像后宫里性欲过剩的男人。现在是开始投资的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> By the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”</p><p><blockquote>到采访发表时，道琼斯指数已经上涨了近15%，达到660点。巴菲特的预测是在1973年至1974年臭名昭著的熊市之后做出的。也许比其他任何预测都更突出了巴菲特“在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪”的哲学。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率将为6%</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.</p><p><blockquote>1999年，股市即将结束一场令人难以置信的上涨。从1982年开始，市场开始大幅上涨，1995年至1999年的回报率分别为37.58%、22.96%、33.36%、28.58%和21.04%。在所有这些热情中，奥马哈先知做出了一个戏剧性的、长期的、反趋势的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特自信地预测，接下来17年的股市回报将与前17年完全不同。事实上，他认为未来17年“最有可能的回报”是6%。</blockquote></p><p> By 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.</p><p><blockquote>到2016年，在17年期间结束时，股票回报率为5.9%——在如此长的时间内，这是一个令人惊讶的准确预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Index Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指数基金将跑赢对冲基金</b></blockquote></p><p> What might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&amp;P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最引人注目的预测出现在2007年，当时巴菲特提出以50万美元打赌，在接下来的10年里，如果计入费用，标普500指数的表现将优于对冲基金投资组合。Protege Partners的对冲基金经理泰德·塞德斯(Ted Seides)接受了这一赌注。</blockquote></p><p> When 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&amp;P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that&nbsp;indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.</p><p><blockquote>当2017年到来时，塞德斯是必须付钱的人。事实上，这个赌注是如此不平衡，以至于塞德斯在整个10年到期前就认输了。当时，Seides收集的基金年收益仅为2.2%，而标普500指数的年收益超过7%，因此支持了Buffett的观点，即指数化通常可以击败主动管理型基金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs is Down But Not Out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛陷入困境但并未出局</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.</p><p><blockquote>2008年9月下旬，投资银行高盛是一个受伤的巨人，陷入了它帮助制造的金融内爆的漩涡。巴菲特预测高盛不仅会生存下来，而且会蓬勃发展，因此向该公司投资了50亿美元。作为交换，高盛给了巴菲特优先股，每年的收益高达10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.</p><p><blockquote>此外，巴菲特还获得了50亿美元的认股权证，允许他以每股115美元的价格购买该股票。到2013年，巴菲特的预测以惊人的准确性实现了——他在市场低迷时投资后获利32亿美元。当然，你和你的401k可能不会像巴菲特那样获得优先认股权证地位，但如果你在巴菲特的时候扣动扳机，你仍然会赚很多钱。2008年11月，高盛的交易价格低于80美元，目前正飙升至344美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Coca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可口可乐是长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最大的股市胜利之一可以追溯到1988年开始的一项投资，那一年他首次买入可口可乐。如今，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司拥有4亿股股票，超过该公司的9%。1988年1月1日，可口可乐的交易价格为2.39美元。虽然该股经历了起起落落，但今天的交易价格仍高于每股50美元。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes&nbsp;the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”</p><p><blockquote>从很多方面来说，可口可乐是沃伦·巴菲特整个投资方法的缩影——在表现良好且您了解其商业模式的大型老牌公司中持有长期头寸。巴菲特对樱桃可乐的热爱是传奇——他在饮用百事可乐近50年后改变了。他平均每天喝五罐这种东西——营养相当于垃圾债券——总共占他每日热量摄入的25%。2015年，他对《财富》杂志说过一句名言：“我是四分之一的可口可乐。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks Are Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Another one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus</p><p><blockquote>尽管有病毒的阻碍，巴菲特的另一个更著名的预测还是实现了</blockquote></p><p> On Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.</p><p><blockquote>2017年2月27日，巴菲特对CNBC的贝基·奎克(Becky Quick)表示，“……我们并没有处于泡沫区域或类似的区域”，尽管许多市场观察人士表示当前的牛市正在变得泡沫。事实上，巴菲特继续说道，“以利率来衡量，与历史估值相比，股票实际上是便宜的。”换句话说，巴菲特预测股票被低估了，是时候再次买入了。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特做出这一预测的当天，道琼斯工业平均指数收于20,837.44点。仅仅七个多月后，道琼斯指数收于22,773.67点，涨幅为9.29%。快进到2020年3月10日，随着新冠疫情的缓解，道琼斯指数飙升至创纪录的收盘价32,297.02点。这比巴菲特下注当天该指数收盘价上涨了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Home Capital Group Is Undervalued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Home Capital Group被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.</p><p><blockquote>2017年年中，巴菲特将触角伸向美国以外，投资了加拿大银行Home Capital Group。与巴菲特的许多其他交易一样，他从一开始就在这次购买中获得了一笔不错的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特以9%至9.5%的利率借给该公司15亿美元。巴菲特还享有以低于市价20%的价格购买最多20%的公司股票的权利，并预测股票在他购买后会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.</p><p><blockquote>股票交易使他能够以每股10美元的价格收购Home Capital。2020年3月15日，其交易价格为32.50美元，这意味着巴菲特的投资加上变化将增加两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买并持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b></blockquote></p><p> One of&nbsp;Buffett’s best investments of all time&nbsp;was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特有史以来最好的投资之一是他现在经营的公司伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。1964年，该公司提出以每股11.50美元的价格购买巴菲特的股票，他同意了。后来，公司降低了报价，这迫使巴菲特不仅取消了出售，还购买了足够的股票来控制公司，并解雇了降低最初报价的经理。巴菲特用他的钱包再次预测伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股价会随着时间的推移而上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特的预言再次成真。现在，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的一股售价约为28.1万美元。作为巴菲特持有时间最长的投资，伯克希尔哈撒韦提醒投资者，“买入并持有”确实可以带来巨大收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/stocks/times-warren-buffett-predicted-stock-market-accurately/#10\">GoBankingRates</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GS":"高盛","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","KO":"可口可乐","HMCBF":"Home Capital Group Inc.","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/stocks/times-warren-buffett-predicted-stock-market-accurately/#10","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144305771","content_text":"This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.\nWhen Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—and they should. He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.\nHis prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.\nWhile Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.\nBank of America Will Rise Again\nIn 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.\nThe preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.\nAt the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.\nThe Time to Start Investing is Now\nBuffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is the time to start investing.”\nBy the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”\nStock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent\nIn 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.\nBuffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.\nBy 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.\nIndex Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds\nWhat might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.\nWhen 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.\nGoldman Sachs is Down But Not Out\nIn late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.\nAdditionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.\nCoca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy\nOne of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.\nIn many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”\nStocks Are Cheap\nAnother one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus\nOn Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.\nThe Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.\nHome Capital Group Is Undervalued\nIn mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.\nBuffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.\nThe stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.\nBuy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway\nOne of Buffett’s best investments of all time was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.\nOnce again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9,"GS":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"KO":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"HMCBF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327949246,"gmtCreate":1616054603385,"gmtModify":1703496934688,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not bad","listText":"Not bad","text":"Not bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327949246","repostId":"2120004158","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327052890,"gmtCreate":1616042165310,"gmtModify":1703496784567,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577886329853489","idStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>what is this","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>what is this","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$what is this","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62af53116b2f8e4954f739309aa56d4e","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327052890","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":357122344,"gmtCreate":1617248764588,"gmtModify":1631890932027,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment on this!&nbsp;","listText":"Comment on this!&nbsp;","text":"Comment on this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357122344","repostId":"1138291357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138291357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617248516,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138291357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 11:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden Infrastructure Plan Could Be Boon For These EV Stocks<blockquote>拜登基础设施计划可能有利于这些电动汽车股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138291357","media":"yahoo","summary":"The plan, which the president will unveil today in Pittsburgh, also includes an initiative on renewable energy and the electric grid as part of a broad goal to supercharge the economy and fight climate change.In particular, it earmarks $174 billion for electric-vehicle efforts, such as EV rebates, charging ports and electric school buses.Biden's plan will \"enable automakers to spur domestic supply chains from raw materials to parts, retool factories to compete globally and support American worke","content":"<p>President Joe Biden's $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan calls for massive investments in electric vehicles and related technologies, a potential boon for EV stocks like<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) as well as charging station operators<b>ChargePoint</b>(CHPT) and<b>Blink Charging</b>(BLNK).</p><p><blockquote>乔·拜登总统的2.5万亿美元基础设施计划评级对电动汽车和相关技术进行大规模投资，这对电动汽车股票来说是一个潜在的福音，例如<b>特斯拉</b>(TSLA)以及充电站运营商<b>充电点</b>（CHPT）和<b>闪烁充电</b>（BLNK）。</blockquote></p><p>The plan, which the president will unveil today in Pittsburgh, also includes an initiative on renewable energy and the electric grid as part of a broad goal to supercharge the economy and fight climate change.</p><p><blockquote>总统今天将在匹兹堡公布该计划，还包括一项关于可再生能源和电网的倡议，作为提振经济和应对气候变化的广泛目标的一部分。</blockquote></p><p>In particular, it earmarks $174 billion for electric-vehicle efforts, such as EV rebates, charging ports and electric school buses.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，它拨款1740亿美元用于电动汽车项目，例如电动汽车回扣、充电端口和电动校车。</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan will \"enable automakers to spur domestic supply chains from raw materials to parts, retool factories to compete globally and support American workers to make batteries and EVs,\" according to afact sheeton WhiteHouse.gov.</p><p><blockquote>据WhiteHouse.gov报道，拜登的计划将“使汽车制造商能够刺激从原材料到零部件的国内供应链，重组工厂以参与全球竞争，并支持美国工人制造电池和电动汽车”。</blockquote></p><p>EV Stocks: Tax Credit Benefits</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票：税收抵免优惠</blockquote></p><p>Biden is asking Congress to keep tax incentives that encourage motorists and add point-of-sale rebates to buy EVs. Currently, consumers can claim tax credits of as much as $7,500 when they buy an electric car.</p><p><blockquote>拜登要求国会保留鼓励驾车者购买电动汽车的税收优惠政策，并增加销售点回扣。目前，消费者在购买电动汽车时可以申请高达7500美元的税收抵免。</blockquote></p><p>But Tesla and<b>General Motors</b>(GM) have already passed the 200,000 limit at which point carmakers no longer qualify for the rebates.</p><p><blockquote>但是特斯拉和<b>通用汽车</b>（通用汽车）已经超过了20万辆的限额，届时汽车制造商不再有资格获得回扣。</blockquote></p><p>Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says he expects the ceiling will be lifted. He adds that an expansion of the tax credits to the $10,000 range or potentially higher in a tiered system is possible.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯表示，他预计上限将会取消。他补充说，在分级系统中，税收抵免有可能扩大到10,000美元或更高。</blockquote></p><p>EV Initiatives: Infrastructure</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车计划：基础设施</blockquote></p><p>There are about 41,400 EV charging stations in the U.S., according to the Department of Energy, though one station can have multiple ports that can serve several cars at a time. That compares with more than 136,400 gas stations, according to GasBuddy.</p><p><blockquote>根据能源部的数据，美国大约有41,400个电动汽车充电站，尽管一个充电站可以有多个端口，一次可以为几辆汽车提供服务。据GasBuddy称，相比之下，加油站数量超过136,400个。</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan will establish grant and incentive programs for state and local governments and the private sector to build a national network of 500,000 EV chargers by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的计划将为州和地方政府以及私营部门建立拨款和激励计划，到2030年建立一个由50万个电动汽车充电器组成的全国网络。</blockquote></p><p>Ives calls this part of the plan a linchpin of these EV initiatives. \"Today there are roughly 100,000 public charging ports with another 300,000/400,000 needed over the next decade to support this groundswell EV green tidal wave for consumers/trucking.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯·评级计划的这一部分是这些电动汽车计划的关键。“如今，大约有100,000个公共充电端口，未来十年还需要300,000/400,000个，以支持消费者/卡车运输的电动汽车绿色浪潮。”</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan also calls for the replacement of 50,000 diesel transit vehicles and electrification of at least 20% of school buses. It looks to also electrify the federal fleet, including the United States Postal Service.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的计划还为更换5万辆柴油运输车辆和至少20%的校车电气化开了评级。它还有望为包括美国邮政署在内的联邦车队提供电气化。</blockquote></p><p>EV Stocks</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票</blockquote></p><p>Tesla jumped 5.1% to 667.93 on thestock market today. TSLA stock has lost more than a quarter of its value since skyrocketing to an all-time high of 900.40 intraday on Jan. 25.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉今天股市上涨5.1%，至667.93点。自1月25日盘中飙升至900.40的历史高点以来，特斯拉股价已下跌超过四分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The company is also expected to report Q4 deliveries later this week. Wall Street expects deliveries of 174,000 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司还将在本周晚些时候报告第四季度的交付情况。华尔街预计交付量为174,000辆。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, ChargePoint surged 19%. Blink Charging stock soared 11. And<b>Climate Change Crisis Rea</b>l (CLII), a blank check company that is taking EVgo public, rose 3%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，ChargePoint飙升19%。Blink Charging股价飙升11。和<b>气候变化危机</b>将EVgo上市的空白支票公司l(CLII)上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p>But legacy auto giants making a big push in EVs were down.GM stockslipped 1.8%,<b>Ford</b>(F) fell 1.7%, and German automaker<b>Volkswagen</b>(VWAGY) sank 3.8%.</p><p><blockquote>但大力推动电动汽车的传统汽车巨头股价下跌。通用汽车股价下跌1.8%，<b>福特</b>(F)下跌1.7%，德国汽车制造商<b>大众汽车</b>(VWAGY)下跌3.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Even newly public EV stocks were relatively muted.<b>Canoo</b>(GOEV) fell 2.9%,<b>Lordstown</b>(RIDE) rose 1.6%, and<b>Fisker</b>(FSR) advanced 3%.</p><p><blockquote>即使是新上市的电动汽车股票也相对低迷。<b>独木舟</b>(GOEV)下跌2.9%，<b>洛兹敦</b>(RIDE)上涨1.6%，<b>菲斯克</b>(FSR)上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden Infrastructure Plan Could Be Boon For These EV Stocks<blockquote>拜登基础设施计划可能有利于这些电动汽车股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden Infrastructure Plan Could Be Boon For These EV Stocks<blockquote>拜登基础设施计划可能有利于这些电动汽车股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-01 11:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>President Joe Biden's $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan calls for massive investments in electric vehicles and related technologies, a potential boon for EV stocks like<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) as well as charging station operators<b>ChargePoint</b>(CHPT) and<b>Blink Charging</b>(BLNK).</p><p><blockquote>乔·拜登总统的2.5万亿美元基础设施计划评级对电动汽车和相关技术进行大规模投资，这对电动汽车股票来说是一个潜在的福音，例如<b>特斯拉</b>(TSLA)以及充电站运营商<b>充电点</b>（CHPT）和<b>闪烁充电</b>（BLNK）。</blockquote></p><p>The plan, which the president will unveil today in Pittsburgh, also includes an initiative on renewable energy and the electric grid as part of a broad goal to supercharge the economy and fight climate change.</p><p><blockquote>总统今天将在匹兹堡公布该计划，还包括一项关于可再生能源和电网的倡议，作为提振经济和应对气候变化的广泛目标的一部分。</blockquote></p><p>In particular, it earmarks $174 billion for electric-vehicle efforts, such as EV rebates, charging ports and electric school buses.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，它拨款1740亿美元用于电动汽车项目，例如电动汽车回扣、充电端口和电动校车。</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan will \"enable automakers to spur domestic supply chains from raw materials to parts, retool factories to compete globally and support American workers to make batteries and EVs,\" according to afact sheeton WhiteHouse.gov.</p><p><blockquote>据WhiteHouse.gov报道，拜登的计划将“使汽车制造商能够刺激从原材料到零部件的国内供应链，重组工厂以参与全球竞争，并支持美国工人制造电池和电动汽车”。</blockquote></p><p>EV Stocks: Tax Credit Benefits</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票：税收抵免优惠</blockquote></p><p>Biden is asking Congress to keep tax incentives that encourage motorists and add point-of-sale rebates to buy EVs. Currently, consumers can claim tax credits of as much as $7,500 when they buy an electric car.</p><p><blockquote>拜登要求国会保留鼓励驾车者购买电动汽车的税收优惠政策，并增加销售点回扣。目前，消费者在购买电动汽车时可以申请高达7500美元的税收抵免。</blockquote></p><p>But Tesla and<b>General Motors</b>(GM) have already passed the 200,000 limit at which point carmakers no longer qualify for the rebates.</p><p><blockquote>但是特斯拉和<b>通用汽车</b>（通用汽车）已经超过了20万辆的限额，届时汽车制造商不再有资格获得回扣。</blockquote></p><p>Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says he expects the ceiling will be lifted. He adds that an expansion of the tax credits to the $10,000 range or potentially higher in a tiered system is possible.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯表示，他预计上限将会取消。他补充说，在分级系统中，税收抵免有可能扩大到10,000美元或更高。</blockquote></p><p>EV Initiatives: Infrastructure</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车计划：基础设施</blockquote></p><p>There are about 41,400 EV charging stations in the U.S., according to the Department of Energy, though one station can have multiple ports that can serve several cars at a time. That compares with more than 136,400 gas stations, according to GasBuddy.</p><p><blockquote>根据能源部的数据，美国大约有41,400个电动汽车充电站，尽管一个充电站可以有多个端口，一次可以为几辆汽车提供服务。据GasBuddy称，相比之下，加油站数量超过136,400个。</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan will establish grant and incentive programs for state and local governments and the private sector to build a national network of 500,000 EV chargers by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的计划将为州和地方政府以及私营部门建立拨款和激励计划，到2030年建立一个由50万个电动汽车充电器组成的全国网络。</blockquote></p><p>Ives calls this part of the plan a linchpin of these EV initiatives. \"Today there are roughly 100,000 public charging ports with another 300,000/400,000 needed over the next decade to support this groundswell EV green tidal wave for consumers/trucking.\"</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯·评级计划的这一部分是这些电动汽车计划的关键。“如今，大约有100,000个公共充电端口，未来十年还需要300,000/400,000个，以支持消费者/卡车运输的电动汽车绿色浪潮。”</blockquote></p><p>Biden's plan also calls for the replacement of 50,000 diesel transit vehicles and electrification of at least 20% of school buses. It looks to also electrify the federal fleet, including the United States Postal Service.</p><p><blockquote>拜登的计划还为更换5万辆柴油运输车辆和至少20%的校车电气化开了评级。它还有望为包括美国邮政署在内的联邦车队提供电气化。</blockquote></p><p>EV Stocks</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票</blockquote></p><p>Tesla jumped 5.1% to 667.93 on thestock market today. TSLA stock has lost more than a quarter of its value since skyrocketing to an all-time high of 900.40 intraday on Jan. 25.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉今天股市上涨5.1%，至667.93点。自1月25日盘中飙升至900.40的历史高点以来，特斯拉股价已下跌超过四分之一。</blockquote></p><p>The company is also expected to report Q4 deliveries later this week. Wall Street expects deliveries of 174,000 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司还将在本周晚些时候报告第四季度的交付情况。华尔街预计交付量为174,000辆。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, ChargePoint surged 19%. Blink Charging stock soared 11. And<b>Climate Change Crisis Rea</b>l (CLII), a blank check company that is taking EVgo public, rose 3%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，ChargePoint飙升19%。Blink Charging股价飙升11。和<b>气候变化危机</b>将EVgo上市的空白支票公司l(CLII)上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p>But legacy auto giants making a big push in EVs were down.GM stockslipped 1.8%,<b>Ford</b>(F) fell 1.7%, and German automaker<b>Volkswagen</b>(VWAGY) sank 3.8%.</p><p><blockquote>但大力推动电动汽车的传统汽车巨头股价下跌。通用汽车股价下跌1.8%，<b>福特</b>(F)下跌1.7%，德国汽车制造商<b>大众汽车</b>(VWAGY)下跌3.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Even newly public EV stocks were relatively muted.<b>Canoo</b>(GOEV) fell 2.9%,<b>Lordstown</b>(RIDE) rose 1.6%, and<b>Fisker</b>(FSR) advanced 3%.</p><p><blockquote>即使是新上市的电动汽车股票也相对低迷。<b>独木舟</b>(GOEV)下跌2.9%，<b>洛兹敦</b>(RIDE)上涨1.6%，<b>菲斯克</b>(FSR)上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/ev-stocks-winner-biden-infrastructure-plan-174-billion-investment/?src=A00220\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc.","BLNK":"Blink Charging","VWAGY":"大众汽车ADR","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/news/ev-stocks-winner-biden-infrastructure-plan-174-billion-investment/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138291357","content_text":"President Joe Biden's $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan calls for massive investments in electric vehicles and related technologies, a potential boon for EV stocks likeTesla(TSLA) as well as charging station operatorsChargePoint(CHPT) andBlink Charging(BLNK).The plan, which the president will unveil today in Pittsburgh, also includes an initiative on renewable energy and the electric grid as part of a broad goal to supercharge the economy and fight climate change.In particular, it earmarks $174 billion for electric-vehicle efforts, such as EV rebates, charging ports and electric school buses.Biden's plan will \"enable automakers to spur domestic supply chains from raw materials to parts, retool factories to compete globally and support American workers to make batteries and EVs,\" according to afact sheeton WhiteHouse.gov.EV Stocks: Tax Credit BenefitsBiden is asking Congress to keep tax incentives that encourage motorists and add point-of-sale rebates to buy EVs. Currently, consumers can claim tax credits of as much as $7,500 when they buy an electric car.But Tesla andGeneral Motors(GM) have already passed the 200,000 limit at which point carmakers no longer qualify for the rebates.Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says he expects the ceiling will be lifted. He adds that an expansion of the tax credits to the $10,000 range or potentially higher in a tiered system is possible.EV Initiatives: InfrastructureThere are about 41,400 EV charging stations in the U.S., according to the Department of Energy, though one station can have multiple ports that can serve several cars at a time. That compares with more than 136,400 gas stations, according to GasBuddy.Biden's plan will establish grant and incentive programs for state and local governments and the private sector to build a national network of 500,000 EV chargers by 2030.Ives calls this part of the plan a linchpin of these EV initiatives. \"Today there are roughly 100,000 public charging ports with another 300,000/400,000 needed over the next decade to support this groundswell EV green tidal wave for consumers/trucking.\"Biden's plan also calls for the replacement of 50,000 diesel transit vehicles and electrification of at least 20% of school buses. It looks to also electrify the federal fleet, including the United States Postal Service.EV StocksTesla jumped 5.1% to 667.93 on thestock market today. TSLA stock has lost more than a quarter of its value since skyrocketing to an all-time high of 900.40 intraday on Jan. 25.The company is also expected to report Q4 deliveries later this week. Wall Street expects deliveries of 174,000 vehicles.Meanwhile, ChargePoint surged 19%. Blink Charging stock soared 11. AndClimate Change Crisis Real (CLII), a blank check company that is taking EVgo public, rose 3%.But legacy auto giants making a big push in EVs were down.GM stockslipped 1.8%,Ford(F) fell 1.7%, and German automakerVolkswagen(VWAGY) sank 3.8%.Even newly public EV stocks were relatively muted.Canoo(GOEV) fell 2.9%,Lordstown(RIDE) rose 1.6%, andFisker(FSR) advanced 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIDE":0.9,"VWAGY":0.9,"F":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BLNK":0.9,"CLII":0.9,"GOEV":0.9,"CHPT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168742201,"gmtCreate":1623984720103,"gmtModify":1631885716453,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and like back!!","listText":"Like and like back!!","text":"Like and like back!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168742201","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350929830,"gmtCreate":1616151780820,"gmtModify":1631890932063,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350929830","repostId":"2120159191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327941791,"gmtCreate":1616054719913,"gmtModify":1703496937632,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upvote me","listText":"Upvote me","text":"Upvote me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327941791","repostId":"2119971630","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119971630","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616054515,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119971630?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119971630","media":"Insider Monkey","summary":"We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitati","content":"<p>We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square, Inc</a>. (NYSE:SQ).</p><p><blockquote>我们知道，从长远来看，对冲基金会产生强劲的、经过风险调整的回报，因此模仿他们共同看好的选择对于散户投资者来说可能是一种有利可图的策略。聪明的投资者拥有数十亿美元的资产，必须进行复杂的分析，花费大量资源，并使用普通大众并不总是可用的工具。这并不意味着他们没有偶尔的巨大损失；确实如此（就像Melvin Capital最近在游戏驿站的损失一样）。然而，密切关注对冲基金活动仍然是一个好主意。考虑到这一点，由于本轮13F备案刚刚结束，让我们来看看聪明资金对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">广场公司</a>.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell?</b>&nbsp;Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的股票是买入还是卖出？</b>知名投资者变得更加乐观。近几个月看涨对冲基金持仓数量增加了16个。截至2020年第四季度末，Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）参与了89家对冲基金的投资组合。这一统计数据的历史最高值此前是73。这意味着对冲基金对该股的看涨头寸数量目前处于历史最高水平。我们的计算还显示，SQ并未跻身对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</h2>At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote><h2>对冲基金认为SQ是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</h2>截至第四季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有89家看好该股，较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>季度前。相比之下，一年前有56家对冲基金持有SQ的股票或看涨看涨期权期权。随着对冲基金情绪的波动，著名对冲基金经理的“上层”正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fe39e494f0228e0898f738c1f67842\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.</p><p><blockquote>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的最大股份由ARK Investment Management持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值15.414亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是Coatue Management，头寸为13.352亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Bares Capital Management、Lone Pine Capital和Whale Rock Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Bares Capital Management将最大的权重分配给了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ），约占其13F投资组合的21.35%。Tekne Capital Management也相对非常看好该股，将其13F股票投资组合的16.68%指定为SQ。</blockquote></p><p>As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>随着总利息的增加，特定的基金经理已经一头扎进了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。由蔡斯·科尔曼(Chase Coleman)管理的老虎全球管理有限责任公司(Tiger Global Management LLC)在Square，Inc.(NYSE：SQ)建立了最大的头寸。截至本季度末，Tiger Global Management LLC向该公司投资了8890万美元。Renaissance Technologies本季度还对该股进行了5990万美元的投资。以下基金也在新的SQ投资者之列：Christopher Lyle的SCGE Management、Paul Marshall和Ian Wace的Marshall Wace LLP，以及Michael Kharitonov和Jon David McAuliffe的Voleon Capital。</blockquote></p><p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc (NYSE:SNOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下与Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）类似的其他股票的对冲基金活动。这些股票包括奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MO）、京东公司（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）、KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">雪花</a>公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）和Crown Castle International Corp.(REIT)（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCI）。这组股票的市值最接近SQ的市值。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125cad2d7e35d8c0582071c4dd3626c9\" tg-width=\"1154\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有58.7个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为55.24亿美元。SQ的这一数字为88.19亿美元。Booking Holdings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有30个看涨对冲基金头寸。Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）不是这一组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对SQ的总体对冲基金情绪得分为77.8。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。我们的计算显示，对冲基金最受欢迎的前30只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为81.2%，跑赢标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）26个百分点。截至3月12日，这些股票在2021年上涨了7%，仍跑赢大盘1.6个百分点。对冲基金押注SQ也是正确的，因为该股自第四季度末（截至3/12）以来回报率为11.2%，表现优于市场。对冲基金因其相对看涨而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606273129822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Insider Monkey</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square, Inc</a>. (NYSE:SQ).</p><p><blockquote>我们知道，从长远来看，对冲基金会产生强劲的、经过风险调整的回报，因此模仿他们共同看好的选择对于散户投资者来说可能是一种有利可图的策略。聪明的投资者拥有数十亿美元的资产，必须进行复杂的分析，花费大量资源，并使用普通大众并不总是可用的工具。这并不意味着他们没有偶尔的巨大损失；确实如此（就像Melvin Capital最近在游戏驿站的损失一样）。然而，密切关注对冲基金活动仍然是一个好主意。考虑到这一点，由于本轮13F备案刚刚结束，让我们来看看聪明资金对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">广场公司</a>.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell?</b>&nbsp;Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的股票是买入还是卖出？</b>知名投资者变得更加乐观。近几个月看涨对冲基金持仓数量增加了16个。截至2020年第四季度末，Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）参与了89家对冲基金的投资组合。这一统计数据的历史最高值此前是73。这意味着对冲基金对该股的看涨头寸数量目前处于历史最高水平。我们的计算还显示，SQ并未跻身对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</h2>At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote><h2>对冲基金认为SQ是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</h2>截至第四季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有89家看好该股，较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>季度前。相比之下，一年前有56家对冲基金持有SQ的股票或看涨看涨期权期权。随着对冲基金情绪的波动，著名对冲基金经理的“上层”正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fe39e494f0228e0898f738c1f67842\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.</p><p><blockquote>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的最大股份由ARK Investment Management持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值15.414亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是Coatue Management，头寸为13.352亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Bares Capital Management、Lone Pine Capital和Whale Rock Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Bares Capital Management将最大的权重分配给了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ），约占其13F投资组合的21.35%。Tekne Capital Management也相对非常看好该股，将其13F股票投资组合的16.68%指定为SQ。</blockquote></p><p>As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>随着总利息的增加，特定的基金经理已经一头扎进了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。由蔡斯·科尔曼(Chase Coleman)管理的老虎全球管理有限责任公司(Tiger Global Management LLC)在Square，Inc.(NYSE：SQ)建立了最大的头寸。截至本季度末，Tiger Global Management LLC向该公司投资了8890万美元。Renaissance Technologies本季度还对该股进行了5990万美元的投资。以下基金也在新的SQ投资者之列：Christopher Lyle的SCGE Management、Paul Marshall和Ian Wace的Marshall Wace LLP，以及Michael Kharitonov和Jon David McAuliffe的Voleon Capital。</blockquote></p><p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc (NYSE:SNOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下与Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）类似的其他股票的对冲基金活动。这些股票包括奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MO）、京东公司（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）、KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">雪花</a>公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）和Crown Castle International Corp.(REIT)（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCI）。这组股票的市值最接近SQ的市值。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125cad2d7e35d8c0582071c4dd3626c9\" tg-width=\"1154\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有58.7个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为55.24亿美元。SQ的这一数字为88.19亿美元。Booking Holdings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有30个看涨对冲基金头寸。Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）不是这一组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对SQ的总体对冲基金情绪得分为77.8。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。我们的计算显示，对冲基金最受欢迎的前30只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为81.2%，跑赢标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）26个百分点。截至3月12日，这些股票在2021年上涨了7%，仍跑赢大盘1.6个百分点。对冲基金押注SQ也是正确的，因为该股自第四季度末（截至3/12）以来回报率为11.2%，表现优于市场。对冲基金因其相对看涨而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-square-sq-stock-a-buy-or-sell-924395/\">Insider Monkey</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-square-sq-stock-a-buy-or-sell-924395/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119971630","content_text":"We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ).Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell? Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from one quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW), Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154954243,"gmtCreate":1625472470382,"gmtModify":1631885716428,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wowowo","listText":"Wowowo","text":"Wowowo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154954243","repostId":"2149387896","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357122517,"gmtCreate":1617248806939,"gmtModify":1631885716476,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is so good&nbsp;","listText":"This is so good&nbsp;","text":"This is so good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357122517","repostId":"1166613273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357126430,"gmtCreate":1617248707620,"gmtModify":1631890932039,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357126430","repostId":"1129134980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350406629,"gmtCreate":1616245189061,"gmtModify":1631890932054,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really","listText":"Really","text":"Really","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350406629","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的任何行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 22:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的任何行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325877526,"gmtCreate":1615890603765,"gmtModify":1703494540590,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Look at this!!","listText":"Look at this!!","text":"Look at this!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e136cdcd24f4832450c43f89f2cc1b7","width":"750","height":"1871"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325877526","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140011841,"gmtCreate":1625619191483,"gmtModify":1631885716369,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes for likes!","listText":"Likes for likes!","text":"Likes for likes!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140011841","repostId":"1122166072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154957955,"gmtCreate":1625472513077,"gmtModify":1631885716417,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hehe","listText":"Hehe","text":"Hehe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154957955","repostId":"1172665496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172665496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625466971,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172665496?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Southwest Airlines Flight Cancellations Mount as Summer Begins<blockquote>夏季开始，西南航空航班取消数量增加</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172665496","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Southwest Airlines(NYSE:LUV)has a flight cancellation problem.\nAs air travel demand has come roaring","content":"<p><b>Southwest Airlines</b>(NYSE:LUV)has a flight cancellation problem.</p><p><blockquote><b>西南航空</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LUV）存在航班取消问题。</blockquote></p><p> As air travel demand has come roaring back in 2021, thelow-fare airlinegiant has rapidly ramped up flight volumes. However, it has struggled to operate its schedule reliably in recent weeks, because of a combination of staffing shortages, an IT outage, and bad weather. If Southwest can't get its operations back on track quickly, the airline could squander the growth opportunities it has been pursuing over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>随着2021年航空旅行需求的激增，这家低票价航空巨头迅速增加了航班量。然而，最近几周，由于人员短缺、IT中断和恶劣天气的综合影响，该公司一直在努力可靠地执行其计划。如果西南航空不能迅速让运营重回正轨，该航空公司可能会浪费过去一年一直在追求的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Flight cancellations mount</p><p><blockquote>航班取消数量增加</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Southwest Airlines canceled 2,687 flights, an average of about 90 per day. More than 34,000 of its flights were delayed. The carrier underperformed its top competitors by a wide margin on both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，西南航空取消了2687个航班，平均每天约90个。超过34,000个航班延误。该航空公司在这两个指标上的表现都远远落后于其主要竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> The trouble began around the middle of the month. A problem with a weather data provider on June 14 caused Southwest to delay more than 1,400 flights. The following day, a separate IT outage forced it to cancel about 500 flights and delay more than 1,300 others. Flight cancellations continued at an elevated rate in the subsequent days, as Southwest struggled to reposition flights and crews following these disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>麻烦大约在本月中旬开始。6月14日，天气数据提供商出现问题，导致西南航空延误了1400多个航班。第二天，另一次IT中断迫使该公司取消了约500个航班，并延误了1300多个航班。在随后的几天里，航班取消率继续上升，因为西南航空在这些中断后努力重新定位航班和机组人员。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines has continued to cancel lots of flights over the past two weeks. The airline primarily blamed bad weather. Southwest executives have also noted that while the carrier is still operating fewer flights than it did before the pandemic, its flying is spread across more routes and more cities. That has added operational complexity, making it hard to recover from weather events and other external challenges.</p><p><blockquote>过去两周，西南航空公司继续取消大量航班。航空公司主要归咎于恶劣天气。西南航空高管还指出，虽然该航空公司运营的航班数量仍比大流行前少，但其航班分布在更多航线和更多城市。这增加了运营的复杂性，使其难以从天气事件和其他外部挑战中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, Southwest's pilot union claims that management has scheduled way too many flights given current pilot availability. Indeed, while the carrier's schedule might be feasible under ideal circumstances, the rash of delays and cancellations in recent weeks suggests that management didn't build in an adequate margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，西南航空的飞行员工会声称，考虑到目前飞行员的可用性，管理层安排了太多航班。事实上，虽然该航空公司的时间表在理想情况下可能是可行的，但最近几周的大量延误和取消表明管理层没有建立足够的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> Trying to stop the bleeding</p><p><blockquote>试图止血</blockquote></p><p> It's not surprising that Southwest Airlines' flight cancellation problem has been getting worse rather than better. Last month, the airline said it planned for capacity to be just 7% below 2019 levels in June and 3% below 2019 levels in July, compared to an 18% reduction in May. Capacity typically increases sequentially from May to July as well, so Southwest has ramped up its flight schedule by more than 20% in a matter of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空的航班取消问题一直在恶化而不是好转，这并不奇怪。上个月，该航空公司表示，计划6月份的运力仅比2019年水平低7%，7月份的运力仅比2019年水平低3%，而5月份则减少了18%。从5月到7月，运力通常也会连续增加，因此西南航空在几周内将航班时刻表增加了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In an attempt to prevent things from getting worse, Southwest Airlines has offered many of its employees -- including flight attendants, ground crew, and cargo staff -- double pay to work overtime in the first seven days of July.</p><p><blockquote>为了防止情况变得更糟，西南航空向许多员工（包括空乘人员、地勤人员和货运人员）提供了7月前7天加班的双倍工资。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, it couldn't reach an agreement with its pilots for a similar arrangement. That may limit the effectiveness of this premium pay program, as pilot staffing is particularly tight right now. Over 600 Southwest pilotstook early retirement offersduring the depths of the pandemic last year. Hundreds more remain out on voluntary leaves. Moreover, many pilots need catch-up training to be cleared to fly again.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，它无法与飞行员就类似的安排达成协议。这可能会限制这一溢价计划的有效性，因为目前飞行员人员配备特别紧张。去年疫情最严重期间，超过600名西南航空飞行员接受了提前退休的提议。还有数百人自愿休假。此外，许多飞行员需要进行追赶训练才能获得再次飞行的许可。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines needs to fix this quickly</p><p><blockquote>西南航空需要迅速解决这个问题</blockquote></p><p> So far, Southwest's attempt to fix its reliability issues by throwing money at the problem doesn't seem to be working. The airline canceled 212 flights on Thursday -- more than 5% of its schedule -- and 194 on Friday, according to FlightAware. Another 40% of the carrier's flights were delayed on Thursday, and on-time performance wasn't much better on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，西南航空试图通过砸钱来解决可靠性问题的尝试似乎没有奏效。据FlightAware称，该航空公司周四取消了212个航班，占其计划的5%以上，周五取消了194个航班。周四，该航空公司另外40%的航班延误，周五的准点表现也好不到哪里去。</blockquote></p><p> The recent rash of delays and (especially) cancellations is aggravating customers, causing some to reevaluate their loyalty to Southwest Airlines. For now, these are just anecdotes, but as the number of impacted customers rises, the likelihood of significant damage to Southwest's reputation increases, too.</p><p><blockquote>最近一连串的延误和（尤其是）取消让客户感到恼火，导致一些人重新评估他们对西南航空的忠诚度。目前，这些只是轶事，但随着受影响客户数量的增加，西南航空声誉遭受重大损害的可能性也会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines has been gearing up for a big growth push recently. It has added 18 cities to its route map since early 2020 and recently exercised 34&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>737 MAX 7 options, more than doubling its scheduled aircraft deliveries for 2022. This could cause its staffing shortages to linger, unless it rapidly hires and trains additional employees. At the same time, if the carrier alienates a lot of customers in 2021, demand could fall short of its projections next year.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空最近一直在为大幅增长做准备。自2020年初以来，它已在路线图中添加了18个城市，最近行使了34个城市<b>波音公司</b>737 MAX 7选项，是其2022年预定飞机交付量的两倍多。这可能会导致其人员短缺持续存在，除非它迅速雇用和培训更多员工。与此同时，如果该航空公司在2021年疏远了大量客户，明年的需求可能会低于其预测。</blockquote></p><p> Customers typically don't care why their flight was canceled. They care about missing a meeting or the disruption to their vacation plans. Southwest Airlines can't make excuses for its poor operational performance over the past few weeks. The airline just needs to fix its operation as soon as possible. If it doesn't, the company could permanently damage its brand -- and its long-term growth prospects.</p><p><blockquote>顾客通常不关心他们的航班被取消的原因。他们关心错过会议或假期计划的中断。西南航空不能为过去几周糟糕的运营表现找借口。航空公司只需要尽快修复运营。如果不这样做，该公司可能会永久损害其品牌及其长期增长前景。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Southwest Airlines Flight Cancellations Mount as Summer Begins<blockquote>夏季开始，西南航空航班取消数量增加</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSouthwest Airlines Flight Cancellations Mount as Summer Begins<blockquote>夏季开始，西南航空航班取消数量增加</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Southwest Airlines</b>(NYSE:LUV)has a flight cancellation problem.</p><p><blockquote><b>西南航空</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LUV）存在航班取消问题。</blockquote></p><p> As air travel demand has come roaring back in 2021, thelow-fare airlinegiant has rapidly ramped up flight volumes. However, it has struggled to operate its schedule reliably in recent weeks, because of a combination of staffing shortages, an IT outage, and bad weather. If Southwest can't get its operations back on track quickly, the airline could squander the growth opportunities it has been pursuing over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>随着2021年航空旅行需求的激增，这家低票价航空巨头迅速增加了航班量。然而，最近几周，由于人员短缺、IT中断和恶劣天气的综合影响，该公司一直在努力可靠地执行其计划。如果西南航空不能迅速让运营重回正轨，该航空公司可能会浪费过去一年一直在追求的增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Flight cancellations mount</p><p><blockquote>航班取消数量增加</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Southwest Airlines canceled 2,687 flights, an average of about 90 per day. More than 34,000 of its flights were delayed. The carrier underperformed its top competitors by a wide margin on both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，西南航空取消了2687个航班，平均每天约90个。超过34,000个航班延误。该航空公司在这两个指标上的表现都远远落后于其主要竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> The trouble began around the middle of the month. A problem with a weather data provider on June 14 caused Southwest to delay more than 1,400 flights. The following day, a separate IT outage forced it to cancel about 500 flights and delay more than 1,300 others. Flight cancellations continued at an elevated rate in the subsequent days, as Southwest struggled to reposition flights and crews following these disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>麻烦大约在本月中旬开始。6月14日，天气数据提供商出现问题，导致西南航空延误了1400多个航班。第二天，另一次IT中断迫使该公司取消了约500个航班，并延误了1300多个航班。在随后的几天里，航班取消率继续上升，因为西南航空在这些中断后努力重新定位航班和机组人员。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines has continued to cancel lots of flights over the past two weeks. The airline primarily blamed bad weather. Southwest executives have also noted that while the carrier is still operating fewer flights than it did before the pandemic, its flying is spread across more routes and more cities. That has added operational complexity, making it hard to recover from weather events and other external challenges.</p><p><blockquote>过去两周，西南航空公司继续取消大量航班。航空公司主要归咎于恶劣天气。西南航空高管还指出，虽然该航空公司运营的航班数量仍比大流行前少，但其航班分布在更多航线和更多城市。这增加了运营的复杂性，使其难以从天气事件和其他外部挑战中恢复。</blockquote></p><p> By contrast, Southwest's pilot union claims that management has scheduled way too many flights given current pilot availability. Indeed, while the carrier's schedule might be feasible under ideal circumstances, the rash of delays and cancellations in recent weeks suggests that management didn't build in an adequate margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，西南航空的飞行员工会声称，考虑到目前飞行员的可用性，管理层安排了太多航班。事实上，虽然该航空公司的时间表在理想情况下可能是可行的，但最近几周的大量延误和取消表明管理层没有建立足够的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> Trying to stop the bleeding</p><p><blockquote>试图止血</blockquote></p><p> It's not surprising that Southwest Airlines' flight cancellation problem has been getting worse rather than better. Last month, the airline said it planned for capacity to be just 7% below 2019 levels in June and 3% below 2019 levels in July, compared to an 18% reduction in May. Capacity typically increases sequentially from May to July as well, so Southwest has ramped up its flight schedule by more than 20% in a matter of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空的航班取消问题一直在恶化而不是好转，这并不奇怪。上个月，该航空公司表示，计划6月份的运力仅比2019年水平低7%，7月份的运力仅比2019年水平低3%，而5月份则减少了18%。从5月到7月，运力通常也会连续增加，因此西南航空在几周内将航班时刻表增加了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In an attempt to prevent things from getting worse, Southwest Airlines has offered many of its employees -- including flight attendants, ground crew, and cargo staff -- double pay to work overtime in the first seven days of July.</p><p><blockquote>为了防止情况变得更糟，西南航空向许多员工（包括空乘人员、地勤人员和货运人员）提供了7月前7天加班的双倍工资。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, it couldn't reach an agreement with its pilots for a similar arrangement. That may limit the effectiveness of this premium pay program, as pilot staffing is particularly tight right now. Over 600 Southwest pilotstook early retirement offersduring the depths of the pandemic last year. Hundreds more remain out on voluntary leaves. Moreover, many pilots need catch-up training to be cleared to fly again.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，它无法与飞行员就类似的安排达成协议。这可能会限制这一溢价计划的有效性，因为目前飞行员人员配备特别紧张。去年疫情最严重期间，超过600名西南航空飞行员接受了提前退休的提议。还有数百人自愿休假。此外，许多飞行员需要进行追赶训练才能获得再次飞行的许可。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines needs to fix this quickly</p><p><blockquote>西南航空需要迅速解决这个问题</blockquote></p><p> So far, Southwest's attempt to fix its reliability issues by throwing money at the problem doesn't seem to be working. The airline canceled 212 flights on Thursday -- more than 5% of its schedule -- and 194 on Friday, according to FlightAware. Another 40% of the carrier's flights were delayed on Thursday, and on-time performance wasn't much better on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，西南航空试图通过砸钱来解决可靠性问题的尝试似乎没有奏效。据FlightAware称，该航空公司周四取消了212个航班，占其计划的5%以上，周五取消了194个航班。周四，该航空公司另外40%的航班延误，周五的准点表现也好不到哪里去。</blockquote></p><p> The recent rash of delays and (especially) cancellations is aggravating customers, causing some to reevaluate their loyalty to Southwest Airlines. For now, these are just anecdotes, but as the number of impacted customers rises, the likelihood of significant damage to Southwest's reputation increases, too.</p><p><blockquote>最近一连串的延误和（尤其是）取消让客户感到恼火，导致一些人重新评估他们对西南航空的忠诚度。目前，这些只是轶事，但随着受影响客户数量的增加，西南航空声誉遭受重大损害的可能性也会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Southwest Airlines has been gearing up for a big growth push recently. It has added 18 cities to its route map since early 2020 and recently exercised 34&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>737 MAX 7 options, more than doubling its scheduled aircraft deliveries for 2022. This could cause its staffing shortages to linger, unless it rapidly hires and trains additional employees. At the same time, if the carrier alienates a lot of customers in 2021, demand could fall short of its projections next year.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空最近一直在为大幅增长做准备。自2020年初以来，它已在路线图中添加了18个城市，最近行使了34个城市<b>波音公司</b>737 MAX 7选项，是其2022年预定飞机交付量的两倍多。这可能会导致其人员短缺持续存在，除非它迅速雇用和培训更多员工。与此同时，如果该航空公司在2021年疏远了大量客户，明年的需求可能会低于其预测。</blockquote></p><p> Customers typically don't care why their flight was canceled. They care about missing a meeting or the disruption to their vacation plans. Southwest Airlines can't make excuses for its poor operational performance over the past few weeks. The airline just needs to fix its operation as soon as possible. If it doesn't, the company could permanently damage its brand -- and its long-term growth prospects.</p><p><blockquote>顾客通常不关心他们的航班被取消的原因。他们关心错过会议或假期计划的中断。西南航空不能为过去几周糟糕的运营表现找借口。航空公司只需要尽快修复运营。如果不这样做，该公司可能会永久损害其品牌及其长期增长前景。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/04/southwest-airlines-flight-cancellations-mount-as-s/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LUV":"西南航空"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/04/southwest-airlines-flight-cancellations-mount-as-s/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172665496","content_text":"Southwest Airlines(NYSE:LUV)has a flight cancellation problem.\nAs air travel demand has come roaring back in 2021, thelow-fare airlinegiant has rapidly ramped up flight volumes. However, it has struggled to operate its schedule reliably in recent weeks, because of a combination of staffing shortages, an IT outage, and bad weather. If Southwest can't get its operations back on track quickly, the airline could squander the growth opportunities it has been pursuing over the past year.\nFlight cancellations mount\nLast month, Southwest Airlines canceled 2,687 flights, an average of about 90 per day. More than 34,000 of its flights were delayed. The carrier underperformed its top competitors by a wide margin on both metrics.\nThe trouble began around the middle of the month. A problem with a weather data provider on June 14 caused Southwest to delay more than 1,400 flights. The following day, a separate IT outage forced it to cancel about 500 flights and delay more than 1,300 others. Flight cancellations continued at an elevated rate in the subsequent days, as Southwest struggled to reposition flights and crews following these disruptions.\nSouthwest Airlines has continued to cancel lots of flights over the past two weeks. The airline primarily blamed bad weather. Southwest executives have also noted that while the carrier is still operating fewer flights than it did before the pandemic, its flying is spread across more routes and more cities. That has added operational complexity, making it hard to recover from weather events and other external challenges.\nBy contrast, Southwest's pilot union claims that management has scheduled way too many flights given current pilot availability. Indeed, while the carrier's schedule might be feasible under ideal circumstances, the rash of delays and cancellations in recent weeks suggests that management didn't build in an adequate margin of safety.\nTrying to stop the bleeding\nIt's not surprising that Southwest Airlines' flight cancellation problem has been getting worse rather than better. Last month, the airline said it planned for capacity to be just 7% below 2019 levels in June and 3% below 2019 levels in July, compared to an 18% reduction in May. Capacity typically increases sequentially from May to July as well, so Southwest has ramped up its flight schedule by more than 20% in a matter of weeks.\nIn an attempt to prevent things from getting worse, Southwest Airlines has offered many of its employees -- including flight attendants, ground crew, and cargo staff -- double pay to work overtime in the first seven days of July.\nUnfortunately, it couldn't reach an agreement with its pilots for a similar arrangement. That may limit the effectiveness of this premium pay program, as pilot staffing is particularly tight right now. Over 600 Southwest pilotstook early retirement offersduring the depths of the pandemic last year. Hundreds more remain out on voluntary leaves. Moreover, many pilots need catch-up training to be cleared to fly again.\nSouthwest Airlines needs to fix this quickly\nSo far, Southwest's attempt to fix its reliability issues by throwing money at the problem doesn't seem to be working. The airline canceled 212 flights on Thursday -- more than 5% of its schedule -- and 194 on Friday, according to FlightAware. Another 40% of the carrier's flights were delayed on Thursday, and on-time performance wasn't much better on Friday.\nThe recent rash of delays and (especially) cancellations is aggravating customers, causing some to reevaluate their loyalty to Southwest Airlines. For now, these are just anecdotes, but as the number of impacted customers rises, the likelihood of significant damage to Southwest's reputation increases, too.\nSouthwest Airlines has been gearing up for a big growth push recently. It has added 18 cities to its route map since early 2020 and recently exercised 34 Boeing737 MAX 7 options, more than doubling its scheduled aircraft deliveries for 2022. This could cause its staffing shortages to linger, unless it rapidly hires and trains additional employees. At the same time, if the carrier alienates a lot of customers in 2021, demand could fall short of its projections next year.\nCustomers typically don't care why their flight was canceled. They care about missing a meeting or the disruption to their vacation plans. Southwest Airlines can't make excuses for its poor operational performance over the past few weeks. The airline just needs to fix its operation as soon as possible. If it doesn't, the company could permanently damage its brand -- and its long-term growth prospects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LUV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325875847,"gmtCreate":1615890465089,"gmtModify":1703494537181,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hey follow tiger","listText":"Hey follow tiger","text":"Hey follow tiger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325875847","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350406101,"gmtCreate":1616245155003,"gmtModify":1631890169113,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEAM\">$Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$</a>it’s a good hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEAM\">$Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$</a>it’s a good hold","text":"$Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$it’s a good 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a lookout&nbsp;","listText":"Worth a lookout&nbsp;","text":"Worth a lookout","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cb3290dad12cecaa54e6d7e2d98268","width":"750","height":"1570"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154954838","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168741935,"gmtCreate":1623984668627,"gmtModify":1631885716463,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moooon","listText":"To the moooon","text":"To the moooon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95901df1ec48a045233a062425fcd89f","width":"750","height":"1679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168741935","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327949411,"gmtCreate":1616054617333,"gmtModify":1703496934860,"author":{"id":"3577886329853489","authorId":"3577886329853489","name":"Trader27481","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec97a6c6ae10f0c189feb26f5fe23b9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577886329853489","authorIdStr":"3577886329853489"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good insight&nbsp;","listText":"Good insight&nbsp;","text":"Good insight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327949411","repostId":"1144305771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144305771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616052165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144305771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 15:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍沃伦·巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144305771","media":"GoBankingRates","summary":"This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.\nWhen Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—an","content":"<p>This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该接受沃伦·巴菲特的建议。</blockquote></p><p> When Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—and they should. He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a&nbsp;bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.</p><p><blockquote>当沃伦·巴菲特讲话时，全世界都会倾听——他们应该倾听。毕竟，他是有史以来最成功的投资者之一，也是世界上第四富有的人。在押注雪佛龙10周内赚了超过10亿美元后，巴菲特短暂地成为仅有的6名净资产增长到12位数的人之一，尽管他目前的净资产已回落到1000亿美元以下。他是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的首席执行官，该公司是巴菲特和他的投资伙伴查尔斯·芒格共同经营的控股公司。</blockquote></p><p> His prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.</p><p><blockquote>他对股票和市场有先见之明的评级为他赢得了“奥马哈先知”的绰号，以纪念他居住的内布拉斯加城市。巴菲特在2017年9月做出了他最引人注目的市场预测之一，当时他预测到2117年，道琼斯工业平均指数将达到100万点。</blockquote></p><p> While Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然巴菲特不会亲眼目睹他的预测是否会成真，但这反映了他对美国经济实力和美国股市长期韧性的终生信念。以下是他的一些最成功和最大的投资预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America Will Rise Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行将再次崛起</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>2011年，美国银行正遭受次贷危机的余震。由于股票交易价格低于每股7美元，而前一年为19美元，巴菲特嗅到了便宜货，购买了价值50亿美元的美国银行优先股。</blockquote></p><p> The preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.</p><p><blockquote>优先股支付了6%的高额收益率，为公司带来了3.36亿美元的年度股息。更好的是，优先股附带认股权证，允许巴菲特以每股7.14美元的价格购买7亿股美国银行股票。</blockquote></p><p> At the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.</p><p><blockquote>当时，巴菲特在年度投资信中做出了这样的预测：“我们购买7亿股美国银行股票的认股权证在到期前很可能具有巨大的价值。”当巴菲特在2017年行使认股权证时，他赚了120亿美元。如今，美国银行的交易价格约为每股37.40美元，巴菲特以每股24.24美元的平均价格购买了伯克希尔超过10.3亿股股票——这是他投资组合中的第二大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Time to Start Investing is Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在是开始投资的时候了</b></blockquote></p><p> Buffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is&nbsp;the time to start investing.”</p><p><blockquote>1974年末，当道琼斯指数低于600点时，巴菲特告诉《福布斯》杂志，他认为市场“……就像后宫里性欲过剩的男人。现在是开始投资的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> By the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”</p><p><blockquote>到采访发表时，道琼斯指数已经上涨了近15%，达到660点。巴菲特的预测是在1973年至1974年臭名昭著的熊市之后做出的。也许比其他任何预测都更突出了巴菲特“在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪”的哲学。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率将为6%</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.</p><p><blockquote>1999年，股市即将结束一场令人难以置信的上涨。从1982年开始，市场开始大幅上涨，1995年至1999年的回报率分别为37.58%、22.96%、33.36%、28.58%和21.04%。在所有这些热情中，奥马哈先知做出了一个戏剧性的、长期的、反趋势的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特自信地预测，接下来17年的股市回报将与前17年完全不同。事实上，他认为未来17年“最有可能的回报”是6%。</blockquote></p><p> By 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.</p><p><blockquote>到2016年，在17年期间结束时，股票回报率为5.9%——在如此长的时间内，这是一个令人惊讶的准确预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Index Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指数基金将跑赢对冲基金</b></blockquote></p><p> What might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&amp;P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最引人注目的预测出现在2007年，当时巴菲特提出以50万美元打赌，在接下来的10年里，如果计入费用，标普500指数的表现将优于对冲基金投资组合。Protege Partners的对冲基金经理泰德·塞德斯(Ted Seides)接受了这一赌注。</blockquote></p><p> When 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&amp;P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that&nbsp;indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.</p><p><blockquote>当2017年到来时，塞德斯是必须付钱的人。事实上，这个赌注是如此不平衡，以至于塞德斯在整个10年到期前就认输了。当时，Seides收集的基金年收益仅为2.2%，而标普500指数的年收益超过7%，因此支持了Buffett的观点，即指数化通常可以击败主动管理型基金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs is Down But Not Out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛陷入困境但并未出局</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.</p><p><blockquote>2008年9月下旬，投资银行高盛是一个受伤的巨人，陷入了它帮助制造的金融内爆的漩涡。巴菲特预测高盛不仅会生存下来，而且会蓬勃发展，因此向该公司投资了50亿美元。作为交换，高盛给了巴菲特优先股，每年的收益高达10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.</p><p><blockquote>此外，巴菲特还获得了50亿美元的认股权证，允许他以每股115美元的价格购买该股票。到2013年，巴菲特的预测以惊人的准确性实现了——他在市场低迷时投资后获利32亿美元。当然，你和你的401k可能不会像巴菲特那样获得优先认股权证地位，但如果你在巴菲特的时候扣动扳机，你仍然会赚很多钱。2008年11月，高盛的交易价格低于80美元，目前正飙升至344美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Coca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可口可乐是长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最大的股市胜利之一可以追溯到1988年开始的一项投资，那一年他首次买入可口可乐。如今，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司拥有4亿股股票，超过该公司的9%。1988年1月1日，可口可乐的交易价格为2.39美元。虽然该股经历了起起落落，但今天的交易价格仍高于每股50美元。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes&nbsp;the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”</p><p><blockquote>从很多方面来说，可口可乐是沃伦·巴菲特整个投资方法的缩影——在表现良好且您了解其商业模式的大型老牌公司中持有长期头寸。巴菲特对樱桃可乐的热爱是传奇——他在饮用百事可乐近50年后改变了。他平均每天喝五罐这种东西——营养相当于垃圾债券——总共占他每日热量摄入的25%。2015年，他对《财富》杂志说过一句名言：“我是四分之一的可口可乐。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks Are Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Another one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus</p><p><blockquote>尽管有病毒的阻碍，巴菲特的另一个更著名的预测还是实现了</blockquote></p><p> On Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.</p><p><blockquote>2017年2月27日，巴菲特对CNBC的贝基·奎克(Becky Quick)表示，“……我们并没有处于泡沫区域或类似的区域”，尽管许多市场观察人士表示当前的牛市正在变得泡沫。事实上，巴菲特继续说道，“以利率来衡量，与历史估值相比，股票实际上是便宜的。”换句话说，巴菲特预测股票被低估了，是时候再次买入了。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特做出这一预测的当天，道琼斯工业平均指数收于20,837.44点。仅仅七个多月后，道琼斯指数收于22,773.67点，涨幅为9.29%。快进到2020年3月10日，随着新冠疫情的缓解，道琼斯指数飙升至创纪录的收盘价32,297.02点。这比巴菲特下注当天该指数收盘价上涨了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Home Capital Group Is Undervalued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Home Capital Group被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.</p><p><blockquote>2017年年中，巴菲特将触角伸向美国以外，投资了加拿大银行Home Capital Group。与巴菲特的许多其他交易一样，他从一开始就在这次购买中获得了一笔不错的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特以9%至9.5%的利率借给该公司15亿美元。巴菲特还享有以低于市价20%的价格购买最多20%的公司股票的权利，并预测股票在他购买后会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.</p><p><blockquote>股票交易使他能够以每股10美元的价格收购Home Capital。2020年3月15日，其交易价格为32.50美元，这意味着巴菲特的投资加上变化将增加两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买并持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b></blockquote></p><p> One of&nbsp;Buffett’s best investments of all time&nbsp;was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特有史以来最好的投资之一是他现在经营的公司伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。1964年，该公司提出以每股11.50美元的价格购买巴菲特的股票，他同意了。后来，公司降低了报价，这迫使巴菲特不仅取消了出售，还购买了足够的股票来控制公司，并解雇了降低最初报价的经理。巴菲特用他的钱包再次预测伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股价会随着时间的推移而上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特的预言再次成真。现在，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的一股售价约为28.1万美元。作为巴菲特持有时间最长的投资，伯克希尔哈撒韦提醒投资者，“买入并持有”确实可以带来巨大收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616052142951","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍沃伦·巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍沃伦·巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">GoBankingRates</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 15:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该接受沃伦·巴菲特的建议。</blockquote></p><p> When Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—and they should. He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a&nbsp;bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.</p><p><blockquote>当沃伦·巴菲特讲话时，全世界都会倾听——他们应该倾听。毕竟，他是有史以来最成功的投资者之一，也是世界上第四富有的人。在押注雪佛龙10周内赚了超过10亿美元后，巴菲特短暂地成为仅有的6名净资产增长到12位数的人之一，尽管他目前的净资产已回落到1000亿美元以下。他是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的首席执行官，该公司是巴菲特和他的投资伙伴查尔斯·芒格共同经营的控股公司。</blockquote></p><p> His prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.</p><p><blockquote>他对股票和市场有先见之明的评级为他赢得了“奥马哈先知”的绰号，以纪念他居住的内布拉斯加城市。巴菲特在2017年9月做出了他最引人注目的市场预测之一，当时他预测到2117年，道琼斯工业平均指数将达到100万点。</blockquote></p><p> While Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然巴菲特不会亲眼目睹他的预测是否会成真，但这反映了他对美国经济实力和美国股市长期韧性的终生信念。以下是他的一些最成功和最大的投资预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America Will Rise Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行将再次崛起</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>2011年，美国银行正遭受次贷危机的余震。由于股票交易价格低于每股7美元，而前一年为19美元，巴菲特嗅到了便宜货，购买了价值50亿美元的美国银行优先股。</blockquote></p><p> The preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.</p><p><blockquote>优先股支付了6%的高额收益率，为公司带来了3.36亿美元的年度股息。更好的是，优先股附带认股权证，允许巴菲特以每股7.14美元的价格购买7亿股美国银行股票。</blockquote></p><p> At the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.</p><p><blockquote>当时，巴菲特在年度投资信中做出了这样的预测：“我们购买7亿股美国银行股票的认股权证在到期前很可能具有巨大的价值。”当巴菲特在2017年行使认股权证时，他赚了120亿美元。如今，美国银行的交易价格约为每股37.40美元，巴菲特以每股24.24美元的平均价格购买了伯克希尔超过10.3亿股股票——这是他投资组合中的第二大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Time to Start Investing is Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在是开始投资的时候了</b></blockquote></p><p> Buffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is&nbsp;the time to start investing.”</p><p><blockquote>1974年末，当道琼斯指数低于600点时，巴菲特告诉《福布斯》杂志，他认为市场“……就像后宫里性欲过剩的男人。现在是开始投资的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> By the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”</p><p><blockquote>到采访发表时，道琼斯指数已经上涨了近15%，达到660点。巴菲特的预测是在1973年至1974年臭名昭著的熊市之后做出的。也许比其他任何预测都更突出了巴菲特“在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪”的哲学。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率将为6%</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.</p><p><blockquote>1999年，股市即将结束一场令人难以置信的上涨。从1982年开始，市场开始大幅上涨，1995年至1999年的回报率分别为37.58%、22.96%、33.36%、28.58%和21.04%。在所有这些热情中，奥马哈先知做出了一个戏剧性的、长期的、反趋势的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特自信地预测，接下来17年的股市回报将与前17年完全不同。事实上，他认为未来17年“最有可能的回报”是6%。</blockquote></p><p> By 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.</p><p><blockquote>到2016年，在17年期间结束时，股票回报率为5.9%——在如此长的时间内，这是一个令人惊讶的准确预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Index Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指数基金将跑赢对冲基金</b></blockquote></p><p> What might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&amp;P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最引人注目的预测出现在2007年，当时巴菲特提出以50万美元打赌，在接下来的10年里，如果计入费用，标普500指数的表现将优于对冲基金投资组合。Protege Partners的对冲基金经理泰德·塞德斯(Ted Seides)接受了这一赌注。</blockquote></p><p> When 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&amp;P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that&nbsp;indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.</p><p><blockquote>当2017年到来时，塞德斯是必须付钱的人。事实上，这个赌注是如此不平衡，以至于塞德斯在整个10年到期前就认输了。当时，Seides收集的基金年收益仅为2.2%，而标普500指数的年收益超过7%，因此支持了Buffett的观点，即指数化通常可以击败主动管理型基金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs is Down But Not Out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛陷入困境但并未出局</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.</p><p><blockquote>2008年9月下旬，投资银行高盛是一个受伤的巨人，陷入了它帮助制造的金融内爆的漩涡。巴菲特预测高盛不仅会生存下来，而且会蓬勃发展，因此向该公司投资了50亿美元。作为交换，高盛给了巴菲特优先股，每年的收益高达10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.</p><p><blockquote>此外，巴菲特还获得了50亿美元的认股权证，允许他以每股115美元的价格购买该股票。到2013年，巴菲特的预测以惊人的准确性实现了——他在市场低迷时投资后获利32亿美元。当然，你和你的401k可能不会像巴菲特那样获得优先认股权证地位，但如果你在巴菲特的时候扣动扳机，你仍然会赚很多钱。2008年11月，高盛的交易价格低于80美元，目前正飙升至344美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Coca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可口可乐是长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最大的股市胜利之一可以追溯到1988年开始的一项投资，那一年他首次买入可口可乐。如今，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司拥有4亿股股票，超过该公司的9%。1988年1月1日，可口可乐的交易价格为2.39美元。虽然该股经历了起起落落，但今天的交易价格仍高于每股50美元。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes&nbsp;the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”</p><p><blockquote>从很多方面来说，可口可乐是沃伦·巴菲特整个投资方法的缩影——在表现良好且您了解其商业模式的大型老牌公司中持有长期头寸。巴菲特对樱桃可乐的热爱是传奇——他在饮用百事可乐近50年后改变了。他平均每天喝五罐这种东西——营养相当于垃圾债券——总共占他每日热量摄入的25%。2015年，他对《财富》杂志说过一句名言：“我是四分之一的可口可乐。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks Are Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Another one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus</p><p><blockquote>尽管有病毒的阻碍，巴菲特的另一个更著名的预测还是实现了</blockquote></p><p> On Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.</p><p><blockquote>2017年2月27日，巴菲特对CNBC的贝基·奎克(Becky Quick)表示，“……我们并没有处于泡沫区域或类似的区域”，尽管许多市场观察人士表示当前的牛市正在变得泡沫。事实上，巴菲特继续说道，“以利率来衡量，与历史估值相比，股票实际上是便宜的。”换句话说，巴菲特预测股票被低估了，是时候再次买入了。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特做出这一预测的当天，道琼斯工业平均指数收于20,837.44点。仅仅七个多月后，道琼斯指数收于22,773.67点，涨幅为9.29%。快进到2020年3月10日，随着新冠疫情的缓解，道琼斯指数飙升至创纪录的收盘价32,297.02点。这比巴菲特下注当天该指数收盘价上涨了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Home Capital Group Is Undervalued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Home Capital Group被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.</p><p><blockquote>2017年年中，巴菲特将触角伸向美国以外，投资了加拿大银行Home Capital Group。与巴菲特的许多其他交易一样，他从一开始就在这次购买中获得了一笔不错的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特以9%至9.5%的利率借给该公司15亿美元。巴菲特还享有以低于市价20%的价格购买最多20%的公司股票的权利，并预测股票在他购买后会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.</p><p><blockquote>股票交易使他能够以每股10美元的价格收购Home Capital。2020年3月15日，其交易价格为32.50美元，这意味着巴菲特的投资加上变化将增加两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买并持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b></blockquote></p><p> One of&nbsp;Buffett’s best investments of all time&nbsp;was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特有史以来最好的投资之一是他现在经营的公司伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。1964年，该公司提出以每股11.50美元的价格购买巴菲特的股票，他同意了。后来，公司降低了报价，这迫使巴菲特不仅取消了出售，还购买了足够的股票来控制公司，并解雇了降低最初报价的经理。巴菲特用他的钱包再次预测伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股价会随着时间的推移而上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特的预言再次成真。现在，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的一股售价约为28.1万美元。作为巴菲特持有时间最长的投资，伯克希尔哈撒韦提醒投资者，“买入并持有”确实可以带来巨大收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/stocks/times-warren-buffett-predicted-stock-market-accurately/#10\">GoBankingRates</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GS":"高盛","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","KO":"可口可乐","HMCBF":"Home Capital Group Inc.","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/stocks/times-warren-buffett-predicted-stock-market-accurately/#10","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144305771","content_text":"This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.\nWhen Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—and they should. He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.\nHis prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.\nWhile Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.\nBank of America Will Rise Again\nIn 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.\nThe preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.\nAt the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.\nThe Time to Start Investing is Now\nBuffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is the time to start investing.”\nBy the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”\nStock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent\nIn 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.\nBuffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.\nBy 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.\nIndex Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds\nWhat might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.\nWhen 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.\nGoldman Sachs is Down But Not Out\nIn late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.\nAdditionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.\nCoca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy\nOne of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.\nIn many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”\nStocks Are Cheap\nAnother one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus\nOn Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.\nThe Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.\nHome Capital Group Is Undervalued\nIn mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.\nBuffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.\nThe stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.\nBuy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway\nOne of Buffett’s best investments of all time was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.\nOnce again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9,"GS":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"KO":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"HMCBF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}