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0勋章

2021-09-14

$AIMS APAC REIT(O5RU.SI)$wait

2021-06-25

[思考]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-25

Like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-25

[微笑]

2021-06-23

$MEDTECS INTERNATIONAL CORP LTD(546.SI)$[心碎]

2021-04-16

[疑问]

Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>加密货币的长期发展：前景如何？</blockquote>

2021-04-16

[无语]

2021-04-13

Like n Comment

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-13

[无语]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-06

[强]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-06

[思考]

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>

2021-04-01

[可爱]

2021-03-31

[OK]

Value vs. Growth Stocks – How to Pick the Right Stocks for Your Portfoli<blockquote>价值股与成长型股票——如何为您的投资组合选择合适的股票</blockquote>

2021-03-30

$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$[无语]

2021-03-25

[思考]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-20

[思考]

2021-03-16

$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$hope

2021-02-17

Yup

抱歉，原内容已删除

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LTD(546.SI)$[心碎]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53173ca2023817a4952a41191161e76d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123303004","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370131929,"gmtCreate":1618561208661,"gmtModify":1631890448703,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"[疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370131929","repostId":"1196603230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196603230","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618559780,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1196603230?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>加密货币的长期发展：前景如何？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196603230","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘inno","content":"<p>It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘innovator’ stage</p><p><blockquote>它尚未证明自己是一种真正的货币，但它仍处于 “创新者 ”阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752a1b5c6700b38a9a9d7d5702e18949\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"788\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As cryptocurrencies take a big step into adulthood this week with the trading debut of broker Coinbase on Nasdaq, it may be time to consider their long-term outlook. A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the&nbsp;MarketWatch-Barron’s event&nbsp;Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着经纪商 Coinbase 在纳斯达克上首次交易，加密货币本周向成年迈出了一大步，可能是时候考虑它们的长期前景了。在周三举行的 MarketWatch-Barron 投资加密货币活动上，两位金融市场专家就这个问题发表了看法。</blockquote></p><p> Katie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员、Fairlead Strategies 创始人凯蒂-斯托克顿（Katie Stockton）指出，技术分析表明，比特币的价格 “明显走高 ”。她指出，事后看来，我们可以看到 2018 年和 2020 年的低点是一个巨大的双底。</blockquote></p><p> After taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿说，在突破 2017 年的高点后，比特币股价跃升至 3.4 万美元以上，“从那以后就再也没有回头”。她表示，从长远来看，历史新高是一件好事，从短期来看，小幅突破是一件好事，表明价格会稳步上涨至略高于 69,000 美元。然而，上涨动力的丧失意味着上升趋势应该变得更加渐进。</blockquote></p><p> Bryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.</p><p><blockquote>卡内基梅隆大学泰珀商学院金融学教授布莱恩·劳特利奇指出，加密货币有几个用例。最重要的是，它们代表着对一项新技术的投资，一项对未来经济有重要影响的技术。</blockquote></p><p> That’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.</p><p><blockquote>劳特利奇说，这种情况以前也发生过--想想二十年前的网络泡沫。但现在，投资新技术通常不涉及投资一家新公司，而是购买一项新资产。</blockquote></p><p> In the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，与互联网时代相比，有很多失败的公司。到目前为止，经常讨论的加密货币用例之一--作为字面货币--还没有真正实现。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.</p><p><blockquote>主持人评论道，出于基本面原因，比特币经常被比作黄金，但也有一些技术原因。</blockquote></p><p> Since last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>Stockton表示，自去年8月黄金见顶、比特币爆发以来，黄金七个月中有六个月下跌，而比特币七个月中有六个月走高。她的理论是，比特币现在可能被视为一种价值储存手段，而黄金并没有因为市场上更强烈的风险偏好态度而得到帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿指出，急剧的上升趋势表明比特币目前更像是一种风险资产，但它似乎正在抢走黄金的买家。她说，从对冲基金界的角度来看，这是一个 “受欢迎 ”的另类资产类别。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents &nbsp;opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿说，考虑到这一点，比特币和更广泛的加密货币还处于早期阶段。“我认为我们可能仍处于'创新者'阶段，这代表着机遇，但它往往伴随着波动”。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.</p><p><blockquote>她说，很难预测波动性何时会消退，但 “这种新的资产类别可能需要很长时间才能显现出来，人们才能了解它是什么，找到不同的投资方式，并让它成为一种交易媒介。交易员会说，这是他们可以利用的东西”，即使长期投资者不得不忍气吞声度过难关。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>一位主持人指出，比特币本应是去中心化的，但围绕它发展起来的金融业使其更加中心化。劳特利奇也认为，这是 “令人震惊的 ”中央集权。他指出，人们通常不会购买比特币，而是购买通常通过 Coinbase 或其他中间环节运行的负债。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>加密货币的长期发展：前景如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>加密货币的长期发展：前景如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘innovator’ stage</p><p><blockquote>它尚未证明自己是一种真正的货币，但它仍处于 “创新者 ”阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752a1b5c6700b38a9a9d7d5702e18949\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"788\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As cryptocurrencies take a big step into adulthood this week with the trading debut of broker Coinbase on Nasdaq, it may be time to consider their long-term outlook. A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the&nbsp;MarketWatch-Barron’s event&nbsp;Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着经纪商 Coinbase 在纳斯达克上首次交易，加密货币本周向成年迈出了一大步，可能是时候考虑它们的长期前景了。在周三举行的 MarketWatch-Barron 投资加密货币活动上，两位金融市场专家就这个问题发表了看法。</blockquote></p><p> Katie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员、Fairlead Strategies 创始人凯蒂-斯托克顿（Katie Stockton）指出，技术分析表明，比特币的价格 “明显走高 ”。她指出，事后看来，我们可以看到 2018 年和 2020 年的低点是一个巨大的双底。</blockquote></p><p> After taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿说，在突破 2017 年的高点后，比特币股价跃升至 3.4 万美元以上，“从那以后就再也没有回头”。她表示，从长远来看，历史新高是一件好事，从短期来看，小幅突破是一件好事，表明价格会稳步上涨至略高于 69,000 美元。然而，上涨动力的丧失意味着上升趋势应该变得更加渐进。</blockquote></p><p> Bryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.</p><p><blockquote>卡内基梅隆大学泰珀商学院金融学教授布莱恩·劳特利奇指出，加密货币有几个用例。最重要的是，它们代表着对一项新技术的投资，一项对未来经济有重要影响的技术。</blockquote></p><p> That’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.</p><p><blockquote>劳特利奇说，这种情况以前也发生过--想想二十年前的网络泡沫。但现在，投资新技术通常不涉及投资一家新公司，而是购买一项新资产。</blockquote></p><p> In the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，与互联网时代相比，有很多失败的公司。到目前为止，经常讨论的加密货币用例之一--作为字面货币--还没有真正实现。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.</p><p><blockquote>主持人评论道，出于基本面原因，比特币经常被比作黄金，但也有一些技术原因。</blockquote></p><p> Since last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>Stockton表示，自去年8月黄金见顶、比特币爆发以来，黄金七个月中有六个月下跌，而比特币七个月中有六个月走高。她的理论是，比特币现在可能被视为一种价值储存手段，而黄金并没有因为市场上更强烈的风险偏好态度而得到帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿指出，急剧的上升趋势表明比特币目前更像是一种风险资产，但它似乎正在抢走黄金的买家。她说，从对冲基金界的角度来看，这是一个 “受欢迎 ”的另类资产类别。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents &nbsp;opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿说，考虑到这一点，比特币和更广泛的加密货币还处于早期阶段。“我认为我们可能仍处于'创新者'阶段，这代表着机遇，但它往往伴随着波动”。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.</p><p><blockquote>她说，很难预测波动性何时会消退，但 “这种新的资产类别可能需要很长时间才能显现出来，人们才能了解它是什么，找到不同的投资方式，并让它成为一种交易媒介。交易员会说，这是他们可以利用的东西”，即使长期投资者不得不忍气吞声度过难关。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>一位主持人指出，比特币本应是去中心化的，但围绕它发展起来的金融业使其更加中心化。劳特利奇也认为，这是 “令人震惊的 ”中央集权。他指出，人们通常不会购买比特币，而是购买通常通过 Coinbase 或其他中间环节运行的负债。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-for-the-long-term-whats-the-outlook-11618505367?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","PYPL":"PayPal","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-for-the-long-term-whats-the-outlook-11618505367?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196603230","content_text":"It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘innovator’ stage\nISTOCKPHOTO\nAs cryptocurrencies take a big step into adulthood this week with the trading debut of broker Coinbase on Nasdaq, it may be time to consider their long-term outlook. A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the MarketWatch-Barron’s event Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.\nKatie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.\nAfter taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.\nBryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.\nThat’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.\nIn the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.\nBitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.\nSince last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.\nThe steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.\nWith that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents  opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”\nIt’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.\nBitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370139633,"gmtCreate":1618561065922,"gmtModify":1631890448704,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"[无语]&nbsp;","text":"[无语]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba475f9e2389013c8168a400dae277df","width":"1080","height":"3021"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370139633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345177607,"gmtCreate":1618294125809,"gmtModify":1631890448711,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n Comment","listText":"Like n Comment","text":"Like n Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345177607","repostId":"1146450605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342766895,"gmtCreate":1618243445817,"gmtModify":1631890448709,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"[无语]&nbsp;","text":"[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342766895","repostId":"2126060698","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343859849,"gmtCreate":1617705781181,"gmtModify":1631890448713,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343859849","repostId":"1186551401","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343892817,"gmtCreate":1617699042739,"gmtModify":1631890448717,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343892817","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357113235,"gmtCreate":1617245233127,"gmtModify":1631890448717,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[可爱]&nbsp;","listText":"[可爱]&nbsp;","text":"[可爱]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e6e7fcc06a14346577d625713944ae","width":"1080","height":"3021"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357113235","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354537439,"gmtCreate":1617186612121,"gmtModify":1631892376883,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354537439","repostId":"1135110939","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135110939","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617183851,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135110939?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-31 17:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Value vs. Growth Stocks – How to Pick the Right Stocks for Your Portfoli<blockquote>价值股与成长型股票——如何为您的投资组合选择合适的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135110939","media":"VantagePoint","summary":"When investing in the stock market, people use different approaches to select which company is worth","content":"<p><b>When investing in the stock market, people use different approaches to select which company is worth it. For some investors, the brand is everything – they simply like the product and want to own shares in the company (e.g., Coca-Cola).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当投资股票市场时，人们使用不同的方法来选择哪家公司值得投资。对于一些投资者来说，品牌就是一切——他们只是喜欢产品，并希望拥有公司的股份（例如可口可乐）。</b></blockquote></p><p>For others, picking up a company to invest in comes at the end of a complicated process. Conservative investors will always prefer dividend-paying companies and compound the returns over multiple periods.</p><p><blockquote>对于其他人来说，选择一家公司进行投资是在一个复杂过程的最后。保守的投资者总是更喜欢支付股息的公司，并在多个时期内复合回报。</blockquote></p><p>As dividends are paid quarterly in the United States, the power of compounding immediately yields results in a few years. Taxes also play an important role in defining a short- or long-term investment. Longer-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate, the idea behind being to avoid unnecessary speculation.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国按季度支付股息，因此几年后立即复利收益率的力量就会产生效果。税收在定义短期或长期投资方面也起着重要作用。长期资本利得的税率较低，其背后的想法是为了避免不必要的投机。</blockquote></p><p>Most retail investors split the market into two broad categories – growth and value. Growth and valuestocksare two fundamental approaches, two ways of looking at the broad equity market.</p><p><blockquote>大多数散户投资者将市场分为两大类——增长和价值。增长和价值股票是两种基本方法，是看待整个股票市场的两种方式。</blockquote></p><p>Growth investors look for companies that historically delivered strong earnings growth, while value investors look for companies that they believe aretradingat a discount. More precisely, they use various models to find the intrinsic value of a company’s share price (e.g., dividend discount models, capital asset pricing model) and then compare it to the market value. If the intrinsic value exceeds the market price, the company is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>成长型投资者寻找历史上盈利强劲增长的公司，而价值投资者则寻找他们认为正在折扣交易的公司。更准确地说，他们使用各种模型来寻找公司股价的内在价值（例如，股息贴现模型、资本资产定价模型），然后将其与市场价值进行比较。如果内在价值超过市场价格，则该公司是买入。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cf5b66baf9f3849787469e2d810e16\" tg-width=\"1216\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond Yield Changes and Value vs. Growth Returns</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率变化和价值与增长回报</blockquote></p><p>Since the new year started, bond yields are on the rise in the United States. The move higher reflects the ongoing economic recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic and triggered higher yields in other parts of the world. Because higher yields implicitly bring tighter financial conditions, central banks try to intervene so the economic recovery is not hurt and accommodative measures remain.</p><p><blockquote>自新年伊始，美国债券收益率一直在上升。这一走高反映了经济正在从疫情引起的衰退中复苏，并引发了世界其他地区的更高收益率。由于较高的收益率隐含地带来了更紧缩的金融环境，各国央行试图进行干预，以便经济复苏不会受到损害，宽松措施仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p>What is interesting is that historically, there is a correlation between rising yields and value stocks. The benchmark widely used is the Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth, and in the last three years that ended last February, the correlation has been +0.28. However, in the long term, the correlation declines, which brings back the question – value or growth for long-term investments?</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，从历史上看，收益率上升与价值股之间存在相关性。广泛使用的基准是罗素1000值与。增长，在截至去年2月的过去三年中，相关性为+0.28。然而，从长远来看，相关性会下降，这又带来了一个问题——长期投资的价值还是增长？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebff81f957dcf359f3f12eb4c6c21fd0\" tg-width=\"1845\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The truth is that no rule of thumb exists. Value stocks are typically cyclical and defensive, while growth stocks are mainly healthcare, technology, and communication.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没有经验法则。价值股通常是周期性和防御性的，而成长型股主要是医疗保健、科技和通信。</blockquote></p><p>A close look at the previous four decades shows mixed results. As such, investors would be better off looking to diversify between the two, trying to get a balanced exposure based on where the economy is on the business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>仔细观察过去四十年，结果喜忧参半。因此，投资者最好在两者之间进行多元化投资，试图根据经济在商业周期中的位置获得平衡的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1615437168461","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value vs. Growth Stocks – How to Pick the Right Stocks for Your Portfoli<blockquote>价值股与成长型股票——如何为您的投资组合选择合适的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue vs. Growth Stocks – How to Pick the Right Stocks for Your Portfoli<blockquote>价值股与成长型股票——如何为您的投资组合选择合适的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">VantagePoint</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-31 17:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>When investing in the stock market, people use different approaches to select which company is worth it. For some investors, the brand is everything – they simply like the product and want to own shares in the company (e.g., Coca-Cola).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当投资股票市场时，人们使用不同的方法来选择哪家公司值得投资。对于一些投资者来说，品牌就是一切——他们只是喜欢产品，并希望拥有公司的股份（例如可口可乐）。</b></blockquote></p><p>For others, picking up a company to invest in comes at the end of a complicated process. Conservative investors will always prefer dividend-paying companies and compound the returns over multiple periods.</p><p><blockquote>对于其他人来说，选择一家公司进行投资是在一个复杂过程的最后。保守的投资者总是更喜欢支付股息的公司，并在多个时期内复合回报。</blockquote></p><p>As dividends are paid quarterly in the United States, the power of compounding immediately yields results in a few years. Taxes also play an important role in defining a short- or long-term investment. Longer-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate, the idea behind being to avoid unnecessary speculation.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国按季度支付股息，因此几年后立即复利收益率的力量就会产生效果。税收在定义短期或长期投资方面也起着重要作用。长期资本利得的税率较低，其背后的想法是为了避免不必要的投机。</blockquote></p><p>Most retail investors split the market into two broad categories – growth and value. Growth and valuestocksare two fundamental approaches, two ways of looking at the broad equity market.</p><p><blockquote>大多数散户投资者将市场分为两大类——增长和价值。增长和价值股票是两种基本方法，是看待整个股票市场的两种方式。</blockquote></p><p>Growth investors look for companies that historically delivered strong earnings growth, while value investors look for companies that they believe aretradingat a discount. More precisely, they use various models to find the intrinsic value of a company’s share price (e.g., dividend discount models, capital asset pricing model) and then compare it to the market value. If the intrinsic value exceeds the market price, the company is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>成长型投资者寻找历史上盈利强劲增长的公司，而价值投资者则寻找他们认为正在折扣交易的公司。更准确地说，他们使用各种模型来寻找公司股价的内在价值（例如，股息贴现模型、资本资产定价模型），然后将其与市场价值进行比较。如果内在价值超过市场价格，则该公司是买入。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cf5b66baf9f3849787469e2d810e16\" tg-width=\"1216\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond Yield Changes and Value vs. Growth Returns</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率变化和价值与增长回报</blockquote></p><p>Since the new year started, bond yields are on the rise in the United States. The move higher reflects the ongoing economic recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic and triggered higher yields in other parts of the world. Because higher yields implicitly bring tighter financial conditions, central banks try to intervene so the economic recovery is not hurt and accommodative measures remain.</p><p><blockquote>自新年伊始，美国债券收益率一直在上升。这一走高反映了经济正在从疫情引起的衰退中复苏，并引发了世界其他地区的更高收益率。由于较高的收益率隐含地带来了更紧缩的金融环境，各国央行试图进行干预，以便经济复苏不会受到损害，宽松措施仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p>What is interesting is that historically, there is a correlation between rising yields and value stocks. The benchmark widely used is the Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth, and in the last three years that ended last February, the correlation has been +0.28. However, in the long term, the correlation declines, which brings back the question – value or growth for long-term investments?</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，从历史上看，收益率上升与价值股之间存在相关性。广泛使用的基准是罗素1000值与。增长，在截至去年2月的过去三年中，相关性为+0.28。然而，从长远来看，相关性会下降，这又带来了一个问题——长期投资的价值还是增长？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebff81f957dcf359f3f12eb4c6c21fd0\" tg-width=\"1845\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The truth is that no rule of thumb exists. Value stocks are typically cyclical and defensive, while growth stocks are mainly healthcare, technology, and communication.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没有经验法则。价值股通常是周期性和防御性的，而成长型股主要是医疗保健、科技和通信。</blockquote></p><p>A close look at the previous four decades shows mixed results. As such, investors would be better off looking to diversify between the two, trying to get a balanced exposure based on where the economy is on the business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>仔细观察过去四十年，结果喜忧参半。因此，投资者最好在两者之间进行多元化投资，试图根据经济在商业周期中的位置获得平衡的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/value-vs-growth-stocks-how-to-pick-the-right-stocks-for-your-portfolio/\">VantagePoint</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c143530e3957463946d55d6aea33d21a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/value-vs-growth-stocks-how-to-pick-the-right-stocks-for-your-portfolio/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135110939","content_text":"When investing in the stock market, people use different approaches to select which company is worth it. For some investors, the brand is everything – they simply like the product and want to own shares in the company (e.g., Coca-Cola).For others, picking up a company to invest in comes at the end of a complicated process. Conservative investors will always prefer dividend-paying companies and compound the returns over multiple periods.As dividends are paid quarterly in the United States, the power of compounding immediately yields results in a few years. Taxes also play an important role in defining a short- or long-term investment. Longer-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate, the idea behind being to avoid unnecessary speculation.Most retail investors split the market into two broad categories – growth and value. Growth and valuestocksare two fundamental approaches, two ways of looking at the broad equity market.Growth investors look for companies that historically delivered strong earnings growth, while value investors look for companies that they believe aretradingat a discount. More precisely, they use various models to find the intrinsic value of a company’s share price (e.g., dividend discount models, capital asset pricing model) and then compare it to the market value. If the intrinsic value exceeds the market price, the company is a buy.Bond Yield Changes and Value vs. Growth ReturnsSince the new year started, bond yields are on the rise in the United States. The move higher reflects the ongoing economic recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic and triggered higher yields in other parts of the world. Because higher yields implicitly bring tighter financial conditions, central banks try to intervene so the economic recovery is not hurt and accommodative measures remain.What is interesting is that historically, there is a correlation between rising yields and value stocks. The benchmark widely used is the Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth, and in the last three years that ended last February, the correlation has been +0.28. However, in the long term, the correlation declines, which brings back the question – value or growth for long-term investments?The truth is that no rule of thumb exists. Value stocks are typically cyclical and defensive, while growth stocks are mainly healthcare, technology, and communication.A close look at the previous four decades shows mixed results. As such, investors would be better off looking to diversify between the two, trying to get a balanced exposure based on where the economy is on the business cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355527332,"gmtCreate":1617088551326,"gmtModify":1631885389725,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>[无语]&nbsp;","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION 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BHD(BVA.SI)$hope","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c68a25ada35a9ace2f93a994ab71aa","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325206951","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385504784,"gmtCreate":1613560658448,"gmtModify":1631892376888,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385504784","repostId":"1109567373","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":358939911,"gmtCreate":1616648095733,"gmtModify":1631892376886,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358939911","repostId":"1118856005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118856005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616641208,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118856005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 11:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Li Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚的新交易是支撑长实股价的最新举措</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118856005","media":"bloomberg","summary":"Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the ","content":"<p>Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.</p><p><blockquote>香港亿万富翁李嘉诚（Li Ka-shing）和他的长子李维胜（Victor Li）正在加紧努力提振家族企业SCK资产控股有限公司（SCK Asset Holdings Ltd.）的股票，此前他们以44亿港元（约合5.66亿美元）的价格购买了该公司股票，但未能扭转暴跌的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Li’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.</p><p><blockquote>李嘉诚的慈善机构李嘉诚基金会（theLi Ka Shing Foundation）将以 170 亿港元的股票向长实出售持有英国和荷兰基础设施运营股份的四家公司。为避免稀释现有股东，公司将以较前收盘价溢价8.4%的价格从市场上回购相同数量的股份。</blockquote></p><p> By undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>通过进行约两年半以来的首次回购，长江实业希望提振自2019年初以来已下跌超过16%的股价，而基准恒生指数则上涨了8%。</blockquote></p><p> CK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>李氏家族长江集团旗下的房地产旗舰长江实业（CK Asset）在2019年年中开始的香港反北京抗议活动以及冠状病毒大流行之后，其房地产开发、飞机租赁和酒吧业务等业务受到了沉重打击。长江资产没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”</p><p><blockquote>“大和资本市场（Daiwa Capital Markets）分析师乔纳斯-坎（Jonas Kan）在公告发布后的一份报告中说：”这笔交易的一个关键信息是，CKA 并没有放弃 ”回购。“如果 CKA 未来在回购方面变得更加积极，我们不会感到惊讶，这将对其股价形成支撑。”</blockquote></p><p> The shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>交易宣布后的第二天，该股股价飙升 7.2%。此后，他们抹去了其中一些收益，这与恒生指数的更广泛下降相一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a006d1652c46f3d8e915d216590742\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该基金会将确保长江实业在今年和明年从基建资产中获得至少9.1亿港元的股息、利息和其他现金分配，这将使交易更加甜蜜。该公司还承诺这两年的股息高于 2020 年支付的股息。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这笔交易让一些投资者对公司的治理提出了质疑，该安排允许李氏家族将其在长江实业的持股比例从目前的 36% 增加到 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者本尼-钟（Benny Chung）在周一网上发表的一篇专栏文章中说，他减持的部分原因是这笔交易似乎以牺牲少数股东为代价增加了家族的控制权。他说，尽管有回购溢价，但每股 51 港元的要约仍比公司资产净值折让了 47%。</blockquote></p><p> “The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”</p><p><blockquote>“CGS-CIMB 分析师 Raymond Cheng 说：”该家族正在以相当大的折扣间接增持长江资产。“一些股东对此不太满意”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚的新交易是支撑长实股价的最新举措</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚的新交易是支撑长实股价的最新举措</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.</p><p><blockquote>香港亿万富翁李嘉诚（Li Ka-shing）和他的长子李维胜（Victor Li）正在加紧努力提振家族企业SCK资产控股有限公司（SCK Asset Holdings Ltd.）的股票，此前他们以44亿港元（约合5.66亿美元）的价格购买了该公司股票，但未能扭转暴跌的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Li’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.</p><p><blockquote>李嘉诚的慈善机构李嘉诚基金会（theLi Ka Shing Foundation）将以 170 亿港元的股票向长实出售持有英国和荷兰基础设施运营股份的四家公司。为避免稀释现有股东，公司将以较前收盘价溢价8.4%的价格从市场上回购相同数量的股份。</blockquote></p><p> By undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>通过进行约两年半以来的首次回购，长江实业希望提振自2019年初以来已下跌超过16%的股价，而基准恒生指数则上涨了8%。</blockquote></p><p> CK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>李氏家族长江集团旗下的房地产旗舰长江实业（CK Asset）在2019年年中开始的香港反北京抗议活动以及冠状病毒大流行之后，其房地产开发、飞机租赁和酒吧业务等业务受到了沉重打击。长江资产没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”</p><p><blockquote>“大和资本市场（Daiwa Capital Markets）分析师乔纳斯-坎（Jonas Kan）在公告发布后的一份报告中说：”这笔交易的一个关键信息是，CKA 并没有放弃 ”回购。“如果 CKA 未来在回购方面变得更加积极，我们不会感到惊讶，这将对其股价形成支撑。”</blockquote></p><p> The shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>交易宣布后的第二天，该股股价飙升 7.2%。此后，他们抹去了其中一些收益，这与恒生指数的更广泛下降相一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a006d1652c46f3d8e915d216590742\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该基金会将确保长江实业在今年和明年从基建资产中获得至少9.1亿港元的股息、利息和其他现金分配，这将使交易更加甜蜜。该公司还承诺这两年的股息高于 2020 年支付的股息。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这笔交易让一些投资者对公司的治理提出了质疑，该安排允许李氏家族将其在长江实业的持股比例从目前的 36% 增加到 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者本尼-钟（Benny Chung）在周一网上发表的一篇专栏文章中说，他减持的部分原因是这笔交易似乎以牺牲少数股东为代价增加了家族的控制权。他说，尽管有回购溢价，但每股 51 港元的要约仍比公司资产净值折让了 47%。</blockquote></p><p> “The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”</p><p><blockquote>“CGS-CIMB 分析师 Raymond Cheng 说：”该家族正在以相当大的折扣间接增持长江资产。“一些股东对此不太满意”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/li-s-new-deal-is-latest-effort-to-prop-up-ck-asset-share-price\">bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/li-s-new-deal-is-latest-effort-to-prop-up-ck-asset-share-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118856005","content_text":"Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.\nLi’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.\nBy undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.\nCK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.\n“One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”\nThe shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.\n\nFurther sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.\nYet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.\nIndividual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.\n“The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345177607,"gmtCreate":1618294125809,"gmtModify":1631890448711,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n Comment","listText":"Like n Comment","text":"Like n Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345177607","repostId":"1146450605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343892817,"gmtCreate":1617699042739,"gmtModify":1631890448717,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343892817","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355527332,"gmtCreate":1617088551326,"gmtModify":1631885389725,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>[无语]&nbsp;","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$[无语]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2fe8eb0ad3705d29bf6159cccfcdc19","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355527332","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370131929,"gmtCreate":1618561208661,"gmtModify":1631890448703,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"[疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370131929","repostId":"1196603230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196603230","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618559780,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1196603230?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>加密货币的长期发展：前景如何？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196603230","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘inno","content":"<p>It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘innovator’ stage</p><p><blockquote>它尚未证明自己是一种真正的货币，但它仍处于 “创新者 ”阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752a1b5c6700b38a9a9d7d5702e18949\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"788\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As cryptocurrencies take a big step into adulthood this week with the trading debut of broker Coinbase on Nasdaq, it may be time to consider their long-term outlook. A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the&nbsp;MarketWatch-Barron’s event&nbsp;Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着经纪商 Coinbase 在纳斯达克上首次交易，加密货币本周向成年迈出了一大步，可能是时候考虑它们的长期前景了。在周三举行的 MarketWatch-Barron 投资加密货币活动上，两位金融市场专家就这个问题发表了看法。</blockquote></p><p> Katie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员、Fairlead Strategies 创始人凯蒂-斯托克顿（Katie Stockton）指出，技术分析表明，比特币的价格 “明显走高 ”。她指出，事后看来，我们可以看到 2018 年和 2020 年的低点是一个巨大的双底。</blockquote></p><p> After taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿说，在突破 2017 年的高点后，比特币股价跃升至 3.4 万美元以上，“从那以后就再也没有回头”。她表示，从长远来看，历史新高是一件好事，从短期来看，小幅突破是一件好事，表明价格会稳步上涨至略高于 69,000 美元。然而，上涨动力的丧失意味着上升趋势应该变得更加渐进。</blockquote></p><p> Bryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.</p><p><blockquote>卡内基梅隆大学泰珀商学院金融学教授布莱恩·劳特利奇指出，加密货币有几个用例。最重要的是，它们代表着对一项新技术的投资，一项对未来经济有重要影响的技术。</blockquote></p><p> That’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.</p><p><blockquote>劳特利奇说，这种情况以前也发生过--想想二十年前的网络泡沫。但现在，投资新技术通常不涉及投资一家新公司，而是购买一项新资产。</blockquote></p><p> In the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，与互联网时代相比，有很多失败的公司。到目前为止，经常讨论的加密货币用例之一--作为字面货币--还没有真正实现。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.</p><p><blockquote>主持人评论道，出于基本面原因，比特币经常被比作黄金，但也有一些技术原因。</blockquote></p><p> Since last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>Stockton表示，自去年8月黄金见顶、比特币爆发以来，黄金七个月中有六个月下跌，而比特币七个月中有六个月走高。她的理论是，比特币现在可能被视为一种价值储存手段，而黄金并没有因为市场上更强烈的风险偏好态度而得到帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿指出，急剧的上升趋势表明比特币目前更像是一种风险资产，但它似乎正在抢走黄金的买家。她说，从对冲基金界的角度来看，这是一个 “受欢迎 ”的另类资产类别。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents &nbsp;opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿说，考虑到这一点，比特币和更广泛的加密货币还处于早期阶段。“我认为我们可能仍处于'创新者'阶段，这代表着机遇，但它往往伴随着波动”。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.</p><p><blockquote>她说，很难预测波动性何时会消退，但 “这种新的资产类别可能需要很长时间才能显现出来，人们才能了解它是什么，找到不同的投资方式，并让它成为一种交易媒介。交易员会说，这是他们可以利用的东西”，即使长期投资者不得不忍气吞声度过难关。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>一位主持人指出，比特币本应是去中心化的，但围绕它发展起来的金融业使其更加中心化。劳特利奇也认为，这是 “令人震惊的 ”中央集权。他指出，人们通常不会购买比特币，而是购买通常通过 Coinbase 或其他中间环节运行的负债。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>加密货币的长期发展：前景如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto for the long term: what’s the outlook?<blockquote>加密货币的长期发展：前景如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘innovator’ stage</p><p><blockquote>它尚未证明自己是一种真正的货币，但它仍处于 “创新者 ”阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752a1b5c6700b38a9a9d7d5702e18949\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"788\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As cryptocurrencies take a big step into adulthood this week with the trading debut of broker Coinbase on Nasdaq, it may be time to consider their long-term outlook. A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the&nbsp;MarketWatch-Barron’s event&nbsp;Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>随着经纪商 Coinbase 在纳斯达克上首次交易，加密货币本周向成年迈出了一大步，可能是时候考虑它们的长期前景了。在周三举行的 MarketWatch-Barron 投资加密货币活动上，两位金融市场专家就这个问题发表了看法。</blockquote></p><p> Katie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员、Fairlead Strategies 创始人凯蒂-斯托克顿（Katie Stockton）指出，技术分析表明，比特币的价格 “明显走高 ”。她指出，事后看来，我们可以看到 2018 年和 2020 年的低点是一个巨大的双底。</blockquote></p><p> After taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿说，在突破 2017 年的高点后，比特币股价跃升至 3.4 万美元以上，“从那以后就再也没有回头”。她表示，从长远来看，历史新高是一件好事，从短期来看，小幅突破是一件好事，表明价格会稳步上涨至略高于 69,000 美元。然而，上涨动力的丧失意味着上升趋势应该变得更加渐进。</blockquote></p><p> Bryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.</p><p><blockquote>卡内基梅隆大学泰珀商学院金融学教授布莱恩·劳特利奇指出，加密货币有几个用例。最重要的是，它们代表着对一项新技术的投资，一项对未来经济有重要影响的技术。</blockquote></p><p> That’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.</p><p><blockquote>劳特利奇说，这种情况以前也发生过--想想二十年前的网络泡沫。但现在，投资新技术通常不涉及投资一家新公司，而是购买一项新资产。</blockquote></p><p> In the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，与互联网时代相比，有很多失败的公司。到目前为止，经常讨论的加密货币用例之一--作为字面货币--还没有真正实现。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.</p><p><blockquote>主持人评论道，出于基本面原因，比特币经常被比作黄金，但也有一些技术原因。</blockquote></p><p> Since last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>Stockton表示，自去年8月黄金见顶、比特币爆发以来，黄金七个月中有六个月下跌，而比特币七个月中有六个月走高。她的理论是，比特币现在可能被视为一种价值储存手段，而黄金并没有因为市场上更强烈的风险偏好态度而得到帮助。</blockquote></p><p> The steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿指出，急剧的上升趋势表明比特币目前更像是一种风险资产，但它似乎正在抢走黄金的买家。她说，从对冲基金界的角度来看，这是一个 “受欢迎 ”的另类资产类别。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents &nbsp;opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”</p><p><blockquote>斯托克顿说，考虑到这一点，比特币和更广泛的加密货币还处于早期阶段。“我认为我们可能仍处于'创新者'阶段，这代表着机遇，但它往往伴随着波动”。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.</p><p><blockquote>她说，很难预测波动性何时会消退，但 “这种新的资产类别可能需要很长时间才能显现出来，人们才能了解它是什么，找到不同的投资方式，并让它成为一种交易媒介。交易员会说，这是他们可以利用的东西”，即使长期投资者不得不忍气吞声度过难关。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>一位主持人指出，比特币本应是去中心化的，但围绕它发展起来的金融业使其更加中心化。劳特利奇也认为，这是 “令人震惊的 ”中央集权。他指出，人们通常不会购买比特币，而是购买通常通过 Coinbase 或其他中间环节运行的负债。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-for-the-long-term-whats-the-outlook-11618505367?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","PYPL":"PayPal","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-for-the-long-term-whats-the-outlook-11618505367?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196603230","content_text":"It hasn’t proven itself as an actual currency yet, but it’s still in what one expert calls the ‘innovator’ stage\nISTOCKPHOTO\nAs cryptocurrencies take a big step into adulthood this week with the trading debut of broker Coinbase on Nasdaq, it may be time to consider their long-term outlook. A pair of financial-markets experts weighed in on that question at the MarketWatch-Barron’s event Investing In Crypto, held Wednesday.\nKatie Stockton, a market technician and founder of Fairlead Strategies, noted that technical analysis shows a trend that’s “clearly higher” for the price of Bitcoin.In hindsight, we can see that the lows in 2018 and 2020 served as a massive double bottom, she noted.\nAfter taking out its 2017 high, Bitcoin jumped above $34,000, and “hasn’t looked back since then,” Stockton said. New all-time highs are a good thing in the long term, she said, and the minor breakout is a good thing, short-term, suggesting a measured move up to just over $69,000. However, the loss of upside momentum means the uptrend should become more gradual.\nBryan Routledge, a professor of finance at the Tepper School of Business of Carnegie Mellon University, noted that cryptocurrencies have several use cases. Most importantly, they represent an investment in a new technology, and one that has important implications for the economy in the future.\nThat’s happened before — think of the dot-com bubble of two decades ago, Routledge said. But now, investing in the new technology has generally not involved investing in a new company but buying a new asset.\nIn the analogy to the dot-com era, there are lots of failed companies, he noted. As of now, one of the use cases often discussed for cryptos — as literal currencies — hasn’t really come to pass yet.\nBitcoin is often compared to gold for fundamental reasons, but there are some technical ones as well, the moderator commented.\nSince last August, when gold peaked and Bitcoin broke out, gold has been down six out of seven months, while Bitcoin has been higher in six out of seven months, Stockton said. She theorizes that Bitcoin might be viewed as a store of value now, while gold hasn’t been helped by a stronger risk-on attitude in the markets.\nThe steep uptrend suggests Bitcoin is more of a risk asset, for now, but it seems to be stealing buyers from gold, Stockton noted. From the perspective of the hedge fund community, it’s a “welcome” alternative asset class, she said.\nWith that in mind, it’s still early days for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly, Stockton said. “I think we’re probably still in the ‘innovator’ stage, which represents  opportunity, but it does often come with volatility.”\nIt’s hard to forecast when the volatility will die down, she said, but “it will probably take a long time for this new asset class to play out, for people to understand what it is and find different ways to invest in it and for it to become a medium of exchange. Traders would say it’s something they can take advantage of,” even as long-term investors have to hold their stomachs through the chop.\nBitcoin was meant to be decentralized but the financial industry that’s grown up around it makes it more centralized, a moderator observed. It’s “stunningly” centralized, Routledge agreed. People usually aren’t buying bitcoins, they’re buying liabilities often run through Coinbase or other go-betweens, he noted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126220643,"gmtCreate":1624576277682,"gmtModify":1631890448701,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126220643","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122058794,"gmtCreate":1624589602418,"gmtModify":1631890448697,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122058794","repostId":"2146021095","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325206951,"gmtCreate":1615899883073,"gmtModify":1703494689904,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>hope","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>hope","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$hope","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c68a25ada35a9ace2f93a994ab71aa","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325206951","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385504784,"gmtCreate":1613560658448,"gmtModify":1631892376888,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385504784","repostId":"1109567373","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886835146,"gmtCreate":1631579301685,"gmtModify":1631889144932,"author":{"id":"3575584209294285","authorId":"3575584209294285","name":"TSquare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7d2496d9cde731e866e67da91471fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575584209294285","idStr":"3575584209294285"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O5RU.SI\">$AIMS APAC REIT(O5RU.SI)$</a>wait","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O5RU.SI\">$AIMS APAC REIT(O5RU.SI)$</a>wait","text":"$AIMS APAC REIT(O5RU.SI)$wait","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ce0666fe9e19783a0a53312b96decf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886835146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}