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Eskimo1989
05-06
这不就100了哈哈哈
以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响
Eskimo1989
2021-02-16
利好电车？
以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响
Eskimo1989
07-10 13:17
把问号改成叹号
五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？
Eskimo1989
2021-02-14
所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？
抱歉，原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-10 13:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU1989773731.SGD":"CPR Invest - Education A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","OGIG":"ALPS O'Shares Global Internet Giants ETF","LU2244417387.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1400636574.HKD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","03455":"景顺QQQ","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) 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(M)","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU2452424414.USD":"BGF ESG MULTI-ASSET \"A10\" (USDHDG) INC","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU1228905037.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0871640123.AUD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INC \"A8\" (AUD HDG) INC","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","LU0784385170.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI ASSET INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHGD) INC","LU0133085943.USD":"T ROWE PRICE US BLUE CHIP EQUITY \"A\" ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776621","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2650901472","content_text":"美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量\"真实服务量\"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，变更的选择方式\"看起来是为了降低通胀\"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的\"统一战线\"，计划分三步推进。第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，\"基本是1999年的镜像\"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。沃什表示，美国经济\"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有\"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SH":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"RTH":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"07261":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,".SPX":2,"VGT":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"XLP":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"09086":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"03086":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPYB":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"UGE":0.6,"07266":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"02834":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"FSTA":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":2,"QMAR":0.6,"07568":0.6,"QID":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"NDX":2,"MMAX":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,".IXIC":2,"03034":0.6,"03455":0.6,"07522":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561297443738264,"gmtCreate":1778067205849,"gmtModify":1778072257248,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","listText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","text":"这不就100了哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561297443738264","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385058969,"gmtCreate":1613489958551,"gmtModify":1613489958551,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"利好电车？","listText":"利好电车？","text":"利好电车？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385058969","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382058205,"gmtCreate":1613314668407,"gmtModify":1613353107548,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","listText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","text":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382058205","repostId":"2111008373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":561297443738264,"gmtCreate":1778067205849,"gmtModify":1778072257248,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","listText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","text":"这不就100了哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561297443738264","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385058969,"gmtCreate":1613489958551,"gmtModify":1613489958551,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"利好电车？","listText":"利好电车？","text":"利好电车？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385058969","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584209367617952,"gmtCreate":1783660669555,"gmtModify":1783663135833,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"把问号改成叹号","listText":"把问号改成叹号","text":"把问号改成叹号","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584209367617952","repostId":"2650901472","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2650901472","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1783660020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2650901472?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-10 13:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2650901472","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-10 13:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU1989773731.SGD":"CPR Invest - Education A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","OGIG":"ALPS O'Shares Global Internet Giants ETF","LU2244417387.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1400636574.HKD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","03455":"景顺QQQ","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) 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Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量\"真实服务量\"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，变更的选择方式\"看起来是为了降低通胀\"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的\"统一战线\"，计划分三步推进。第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，\"基本是1999年的镜像\"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。沃什表示，美国经济\"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有\"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SH":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"RTH":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"07261":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,".SPX":2,"VGT":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"XLP":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"09086":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"03086":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPYB":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"UGE":0.6,"07266":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"02834":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"FSTA":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":2,"QMAR":0.6,"07568":0.6,"QID":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"NDX":2,"MMAX":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,".IXIC":2,"03034":0.6,"03455":0.6,"07522":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382058205,"gmtCreate":1613314668407,"gmtModify":1613353107548,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","listText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","text":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382058205","repostId":"2111008373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
