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Eskimo1989
08-31
然后狠狠通胀？
特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗
Eskimo1989
08-15
请把问号改成叹号🤣
本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？
Eskimo1989
07-10
把问号改成叹号
五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？
Eskimo1989
05-06
这不就100了哈哈哈
以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响
Eskimo1989
2021-02-16
利好电车？
以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响
Eskimo1989
2021-02-14
所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？
抱歉，原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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21:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129121966","media":"CCTV 国际视讯","summary":"据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。</span><br/><span>当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be8a95e1c4b730405f139b7b658f434c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1292\" tg-height=\"382\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1721357159105","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-31 21:12 北京时间 <a href=https://weibo.com/u/1371701597><strong>CCTV 国际视讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://weibo.com/u/1371701597\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c7890b392eb05e9c52fa3cef1b0d5dd","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://weibo.com/u/1371701597","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129121966","content_text":"据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":597009562883008,"gmtCreate":1786772450679,"gmtModify":1786772452562,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","listText":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","text":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/597009562883008","repostId":"2659127667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2659127667","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786770596,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659127667?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-15 13:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659127667","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国7月CPI、PPI及零售销售数据全面走软，叠加就业降温，市场对美联储9月加息概率从75%骤降至25%，推动全球股市连续三周上涨。然而，油价仍处高位，美债收益率曲线陡化，债市长端持续为通胀与财政赤字定价，两周后杰克逊霍尔会议将成关键风向标。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一"暂停叙事"发出挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e8121c9c39547a4c19ff680b9d8c631\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"605\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市在欢呼"美联储转向"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月CPI</strong>环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月PPI</strong>环比持平，低于预期；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月零售销售</strong>环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/365b1f93752001eefef125f3af8a3a1e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值"大概率已经过去"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但鹰派声音并未沉默。</strong>毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">债市长端发出截然不同的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d30b1711e2dd3d3881915cb0f1afca95\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26544a0a238b06055b143bf818adbbda\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff82eedd30d882be0755c127a5273a7b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"650\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易"美联储即将停止加息"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-15 13:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一"暂停叙事"发出挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e8121c9c39547a4c19ff680b9d8c631\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"605\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市在欢呼"美联储转向"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月CPI</strong>环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月PPI</strong>环比持平，低于预期；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月零售销售</strong>环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/365b1f93752001eefef125f3af8a3a1e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值"大概率已经过去"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但鹰派声音并未沉默。</strong>毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">债市长端发出截然不同的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d30b1711e2dd3d3881915cb0f1afca95\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26544a0a238b06055b143bf818adbbda\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff82eedd30d882be0755c127a5273a7b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"650\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易"美联储即将停止加息"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e69e2b1cc0cbb2a2ca0853d058e325d","relate_stocks":{"JULD":"Premium Income 10 Barrier ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","UVIX":"2倍做多恐慌指数期货ETF","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","MYCN":"SPDR SSGA My2034 Corporate Bond ETF","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","VEXC":"Vanguard Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","HMOP":"Hartford Municipal Opportunities ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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DB","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","SVIX":"1倍做空短期期货恐慌指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779497","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659127667","content_text":"美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一\"暂停叙事\"发出挑战。9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。股市在欢呼\"美联储转向\"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：7月CPI环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；7月PPI环比持平，低于预期；7月零售销售环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。Evercore ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，\"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险\"。EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值\"大概率已经过去\"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，\"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生\"。但鹰派声音并未沉默。毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。债市长端发出截然不同的信号本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易\"美联储即将停止加息\"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但\"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑\"。在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UDN":1.5,"QQQ":2,"AGG":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,"SVXY":0.6,"MUB":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"VIX":2,"SHY":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"ESmain":2,"KBE":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"VIXY":2,"CIVG":1.5,"VXX":2,".DJI":2,"PBDC":1.5,"NEMD":1.5,"SVIX":0.6,"VGSH":1.5,"JULD":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"UVXY":0.6,"BOXX":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"UVIX":0.6,"EBUF":1.5,"IEF":1.5,".IXIC":2,"VCSH":1.5,"VEXC":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"SQQQ":2,"VIXmain":2,"BND":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"SHV":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"TBIL":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"NQmain":2,"UBT":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"TMF":1.5,".SPX":2,"FAZ":1.5,"YMmain":2,"SPY":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"MYCN":1.5,"LIAJ":1.5,"TQQQ":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584209367617952,"gmtCreate":1783660669555,"gmtModify":1783663135833,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"把问号改成叹号","listText":"把问号改成叹号","text":"把问号改成叹号","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584209367617952","repostId":"2650901472","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2650901472","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1783660020,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2650901472?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-10 13:07","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2650901472","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？</title>\n<style 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13:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"LU2362541273.HKD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0124676726.USD":"AB SICAV I - SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2362541513.USD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2491049909.HKD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2491050071.SGD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) 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战略收益基金 P类港元","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU1221951129.SGD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (SGDHDG) INC","HK0000304797.USD":"PICTET 战略收益基金 P类 美元","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776621","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2650901472","content_text":"美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量\"真实服务量\"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，变更的选择方式\"看起来是为了降低通胀\"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的\"统一战线\"，计划分三步推进。第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，\"基本是1999年的镜像\"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。沃什表示，美国经济\"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有\"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GPIQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"07568":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"09834":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"03086":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"IGV":0.6,".IXIC":2,"VOO":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"RTH":0.6,"FSTA":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"03455":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"03034":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"07261":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,".DJI":2,"QDEC":0.6,"09086":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,".SPX":2,"CNEQ":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"UGE":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPYB":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"07266":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"SH":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NDX":2,"SNPE":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"XLP":0.6,"07522":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561297443738264,"gmtCreate":1778067205849,"gmtModify":1778072257248,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","listText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","text":"这不就100了哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561297443738264","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385058969,"gmtCreate":1613489958551,"gmtModify":1613489958551,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"利好电车？","listText":"利好电车？","text":"利好电车？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385058969","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382058205,"gmtCreate":1613314668407,"gmtModify":1613353107548,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","listText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","text":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382058205","repostId":"2111008373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":602714097980328,"gmtCreate":1788183984712,"gmtModify":1788183986588,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"然后狠狠通胀？","listText":"然后狠狠通胀？","text":"然后狠狠通胀？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602714097980328","repostId":"1129121966","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129121966","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1788181920,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129121966?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-31 21:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129121966","media":"CCTV 国际视讯","summary":"据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。</span><br/><span>当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be8a95e1c4b730405f139b7b658f434c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1292\" tg-height=\"382\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1721357159105","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普：将狠狠打击伊朗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-31 21:12 北京时间 <a href=https://weibo.com/u/1371701597><strong>CCTV 国际视讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://weibo.com/u/1371701597\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c7890b392eb05e9c52fa3cef1b0d5dd","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://weibo.com/u/1371701597","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129121966","content_text":"据美国福克斯新闻台今天（8月31日）报道，美国总统特朗普表示将对伊朗打击驻约旦美军作出回应。特朗普称，“我们将狠狠打击他们”。当地时间8月30日晚，美军袭击伊朗南部拉腊克岛。伊朗随即对地区美军基地进行导弹和无人机打击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584209367617952,"gmtCreate":1783660669555,"gmtModify":1783663135833,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"把问号改成叹号","listText":"把问号改成叹号","text":"把问号改成叹号","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584209367617952","repostId":"2650901472","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2650901472","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1783660020,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2650901472?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-10 13:07","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2650901472","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>五大工作组来了，沃什“统一战线”，意在降息？</title>\n<style 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13:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。<strong>五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：<strong>相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong>中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：<strong>人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4235029153\">五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。</p></li><li><p>资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。</p></li><li><p>经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。</p></li><li><p>生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。</p></li><li><p>通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2975400858\">PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量"真实服务量"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，<strong>变更的选择方式"看起来是为了降低通胀"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_36246795\">中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的"统一战线"，计划分三步推进。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。</p></li><li><p>第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。</p></li><li><p>第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，"基本是1999年的镜像"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什表示，美国经济"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"LU2362541273.HKD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0124676726.USD":"AB SICAV I - SUSTAINABLE US THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2362541513.USD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2491049909.HKD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2491050071.SGD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) 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战略收益基金 P类港元","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU1221951129.SGD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (SGDHDG) INC","HK0000304797.USD":"PICTET 战略收益基金 P类 美元","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776621","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2650901472","content_text":"美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革进入实质阶段——五大工作组7月9日正式亮相，汇聚前英国央行行长、诺贝尔经济学奖得主及Marc Andreessen等重量级人士。叠加此前，BEA悄然调整PCE统计方法，高盛、瑞银警示通胀读数将被系统性压低。中信建投预演了一套清晰的三步走路线图：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，终点直指四季度降息。美联储主席沃什推动的政策框架改革迈入实质阶段。随着五大工作组领导班子于7月9日正式揭晓，这场被外界视为“统一战线”的内部重组，正沿着一条清晰的三步路线图向前推进——而其最终指向，或许是四季度的降息交易重启。美联储隔夜公布的领导名单汇聚了前英国央行行长Mervyn King、印度央行前行长Raghuram Rajan、硅谷知名投资人Marc Andreessen、哈佛大学经济学教授Greg Mankiw及诺贝尔经济学奖得主Thomas Sargent等重量级人士，覆盖全球央行、顶尖学界与科技产业。五个工作组将分别围绕货币政策沟通、资产负债表、经济数据、生产率与就业以及通胀框架展开评估，并于年底前提交研究报告。此前，美国经济分析局（BEA）宣布的PCE统计方法调整，已引发高盛、瑞银等机构警示：相关变更将系统性压低核心PCE通胀读数。中信建投则在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述动向串联为一套完整的政策叙事：人事布局、框架重塑、鸽派转向，三步走，目标直指降息。工作组的正式落地，似乎正在印证这一判断。五大工作组亮相，阵容横跨央行、学界与硅谷根据美联储7月9日公告，五个工作组各由三位来自不同领域的专家共同领衔，并获美联储工作人员支持。货币政策沟通工作组由Mervyn King、华盛顿大学福斯特商学院教授兼美国财政部前高级官员Peter Fisher，以及巴西央行前行长、Gávea Investimentos创始人Arminio Fraga共同领导，重点评估美联储如何在不确定环境下改进政策沟通方式。资产负债表工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Karen Dynan、Raghuram Rajan及哈佛大学经济学教授兼美联储前理事Jeremy Stein领衔，将系统评估量化宽松、量化紧缩及长期准备金体系的成本与收益。经济数据工作组由哈佛大学经济学教授Raj Chetty、沃尔玛前CEO Doug McMillon及芝加哥大学经济学教授Kevin Murphy组成，研究方向为提升经济指标的质量、及时性与可用性。生产率与就业工作组是此次改革中科技色彩最为浓厚的安排，由Andreessen Horowitz联合创始人Marc Andreessen、斯坦福大学经济学教授Charles Jones及微软执行副总裁Asha Sharma领衔，重点评估AI等通用目的技术对生产率、就业市场和长期增长潜力的影响。通胀框架工作组则由Greg Mankiw、Thomas Sargent及国际清算银行前经济顾问William White组成，将重新审视美联储分析通胀驱动因素和制定政策反应的框架。沃什在声明中表示，每个工作组都将认真评估决策者所采用的方法、分析工具和政策路径是否能够进一步改进，“目标非常明确，就是确保美联储在这一关键时期能够以最佳状态履行其职责”。PCE统计方法悄然调整，高盛瑞银警示通胀读数将被压低在工作组名单公布之前，另一条线索已悄然浮现。BEA宣布将对PCE价格指数的三个分项进行方法论调整，将于2026年9月30日正式生效，并追溯调整历史数据。据追风交易台消息，高盛和瑞银发布研究报告认为，这些变更将系统性地压低核心PCE通胀读数。三项调整中，影响最大的是投资组合管理服务分项。现行方法直接以该行业PPI平减名义支出，由于资产价格上涨推高管理费，该分项近12个月同比涨幅高达21.6%，是核心PCE通胀的第二大贡献项。新方法改用就业调查中的总工时增长衡量\"真实服务量\"，由于工时增长远慢于资产规模增长，计算出的价格涨幅将大幅下降。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister等估算，此项变更将使核心PCE同比通胀减少约0.21个百分点。电脑软件及配件分项方面，高盛分析师Manuel Abecasis等估计，新方法将使核心PCE同比通胀在5月下降0.05至0.1个百分点，在12月下降0.1至0.2个百分点。法律服务分项的调整则将使通胀在5月小幅上升约0.04个百分点，部分对冲前两项的下行效应。综合三项变更，高盛和瑞银均认为净效果是核心PCE通胀读数的系统性下移。瑞银更直接指出，变更的选择方式\"看起来是为了降低通胀\"，并警告新方法透明度不足，外界难以独立核验，存在数据被操纵的风险。中信建投：三步走路线图，终点是降息中信建投研究员钱伟在工作组名单公布前发布研报，将上述一系列动向纳入一套完整的政策框架加以解读。研报认为，沃什上任后面临联储内部根基不深、独立性质疑、立场分歧等多重挑战，其核心任务是完成对联储的\"统一战线\"，计划分三步推进。第一步（7月）：人事安排。通过工作组人事任命制衡委员会，赋予工作组核心政策地位，后续由工作组承担部分引导市场预期的任务。第二步（三季度）：框架调整。传统就业和通胀指标短期波动大、难以形成共识，AI革命为沃什提供了引入供给侧新框架的机会。新框架的核心逻辑是：生产率上行可以控制通胀，从而为货币宽松创造空间。中信建投援引1995至1998年案例指出，彼时尽管薪资高增、经济强势，但劳动生产率增速趋势上行、通胀回落，薪资与物价的联动被生产率提升所打破，美联储最终选择降息。第三步（四季度）：立场转换。在前两步铺垫下，美联储转鸽，降息交易重启。中信建投指出，目前劳动生产率增速爬坡、薪资增速下行、科技行业裁员、就业市场不紧，\"基本是1999年的镜像\"。若就业和CPI数据适度配合，工作组最终结论大概率帮助美联储立场转鸽，加息交易退潮。从时间线来看，而工作组的落地，似乎印证了这一叙事的内在逻辑——人事布局已然完成，框架调整和通胀数据的重新诠释正在同步推进。通胀框架工作组将重新审视美联储分析通胀的方法论，经济数据工作组将研究如何提升指标质量，生产率与就业工作组则将为供给侧新框架提供学术支撑。三者合力，构成了为降息铺路的完整闭环。沃什表示，美国经济\"在过去一代人的时间里发生了巨大变化，而且当下的变化速度前所未有\"，美联储有必要重新检视自身的政策工具和分析方法。各工作组将于年底前提交研究报告，届时政策框架调整的轮廓将进一步清晰。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GPIQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"07568":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"09834":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"03086":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"IGV":0.6,".IXIC":2,"VOO":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"RTH":0.6,"FSTA":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"03455":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"03034":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"02834":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"07261":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,".DJI":2,"QDEC":0.6,"09086":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,".SPX":2,"CNEQ":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"UGE":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"SPYB":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"07266":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"SH":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NDX":2,"SNPE":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"XLP":0.6,"07522":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561297443738264,"gmtCreate":1778067205849,"gmtModify":1778072257248,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","listText":"这不就100了哈哈哈","text":"这不就100了哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/561297443738264","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385058969,"gmtCreate":1613489958551,"gmtModify":1613489958551,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"利好电车？","listText":"利好电车？","text":"利好电车？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385058969","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":597009562883008,"gmtCreate":1786772450679,"gmtModify":1786772452562,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","listText":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","text":"请把问号改成叹号🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/597009562883008","repostId":"2659127667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2659127667","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786770596,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2659127667?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-15 13:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659127667","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国7月CPI、PPI及零售销售数据全面走软，叠加就业降温，市场对美联储9月加息概率从75%骤降至25%，推动全球股市连续三周上涨。然而，油价仍处高位，美债收益率曲线陡化，债市长端持续为通胀与财政赤字定价，两周后杰克逊霍尔会议将成关键风向标。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一"暂停叙事"发出挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e8121c9c39547a4c19ff680b9d8c631\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"605\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市在欢呼"美联储转向"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月CPI</strong>环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月PPI</strong>环比持平，低于预期；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月零售销售</strong>环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/365b1f93752001eefef125f3af8a3a1e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值"大概率已经过去"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但鹰派声音并未沉默。</strong>毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">债市长端发出截然不同的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d30b1711e2dd3d3881915cb0f1afca95\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26544a0a238b06055b143bf818adbbda\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff82eedd30d882be0755c127a5273a7b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"650\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易"美联储即将停止加息"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n本周市场的“核心逻辑”：美联储9月不加息了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-15 13:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一"暂停叙事"发出挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e8121c9c39547a4c19ff680b9d8c631\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"605\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市在欢呼"美联储转向"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月CPI</strong>环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月PPI</strong>环比持平，低于预期；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>7月零售销售</strong>环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/365b1f93752001eefef125f3af8a3a1e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值"大概率已经过去"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但鹰派声音并未沉默。</strong>毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">债市长端发出截然不同的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d30b1711e2dd3d3881915cb0f1afca95\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"635\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26544a0a238b06055b143bf818adbbda\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"631\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff82eedd30d882be0755c127a5273a7b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"650\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易"美联储即将停止加息"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e69e2b1cc0cbb2a2ca0853d058e325d","relate_stocks":{"JULD":"Premium Income 10 Barrier ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","UVIX":"2倍做多恐慌指数期货ETF","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","MYCN":"SPDR SSGA My2034 Corporate Bond ETF","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","VEXC":"Vanguard Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","HMOP":"Hartford Municipal Opportunities ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PBDC":"Putnam Bdc Income ETF","NEMD":"Neuberger Emerging Markets Debt Hard Currency ETF","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","WAMA":"WisdomTree U.S. Adaptive Moving Average Fund","BOND":"Pimco Total Return ETF","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","VIX":"标普500波动率指数","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","CIVG":"Corgi 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","EBUF":"Innovator Emerging Markets 10 Buffer ETF - Quarterly","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","SVIX":"1倍做空短期期货恐慌指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779497","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659127667","content_text":"美国通胀数据意外降温，叠加就业与消费走软，本周市场对美联储9月加息的押注急剧退潮，但债券市场长端的异常信号、油价飙升以及鹰派官员的坚持，正在向这一\"暂停叙事\"发出挑战。9月加息概率从7月下旬的75%骤降至约25%，带动全球股市连续第三周上涨，美股主要指数维持历史高位附近。AI基础设施相关财报持续强劲，为科技股提供了额外支撑，令权益市场暂时得以忽视油价冲击与债市长端的警告音。然而，伊朗/霍尔木兹海峡危机推动布伦特原油周内涨幅接近6%，逼近90美元/桶；美国30年期国债标售收益率触及25年来最高水平。股市在欢呼\"美联储转向\"，债市长端却在为通胀与财政赤字定价——两套逻辑并行，谁对谁错，可能是今年下半年最重要的交易命题。通胀降温，9月加息预期崩塌本周宏观面的最大驱动来自一系列偏软的美国数据：7月CPI环比仅上涨约0.1%，同比约3.4%，核心通胀压力继续温和回落；7月PPI环比持平，低于预期；7月零售销售环比下滑0.6%，创逾一年最大单月降幅，大幅不及市场预期的小幅上涨，汽车、油价及若干时间性因素均构成拖累。叠加上周已公布的非农就业数据（减少2.3万人并遭下修），软数据组合使市场对美联储近期加息的预期全面瓦解，抹去了沃什接任美联储主席以来积累的全部鹰派溢价。Evercore ISI经济学家Marco Casiraghi认为，CPI与PPI数据的组合支持9月维持利率不变，但加息选项尚未完全关闭，\"仍存在使委员会更倾向加息的风险\"。EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco则表达了更明确的乐观立场，认为与伊朗冲突相关的油价驱动的通胀峰值\"大概率已经过去\"，支持美联储保持耐心，并预计美联储将全年按兵不动。Capital Economics首席北美经济学家Stephen Brown估计7月核心PCE环比仅升0.16%，若属实，\"9月加息——正如我们此前预测的——现在看来不太可能发生\"。但鹰派声音并未沉默。毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家Diane Swonk警示称，核心PCE同比可能仍粘在3.3%附近，Diane Swonk说：温和的CPI并未将9月加息排除在外，这一数字不仅可能强化鹰派的决心，还可能在美联储领导层内部凝聚更多支持加息的票数。克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack，在CPI报告公布后再度表态，认为美联储需要立即加息才能压制通胀。此前FOMC会议上Beth Hammack投票支持加息的。债市长端发出截然不同的信号本周市场中最重要、却也最被忽视的信号来自美债长端。尽管通胀数据偏软，美联储加息预期大幅回落，本周30年期国债标售收益率仍创25年来新高，10年期标售收益率亦处于历史高位区间。30年期国债收益率全周上行逾6个基点，并触及近19年高点，而2年期收益率则跌至约一个月低点。2年/30年期利差显著走阔，收益率曲线大幅陡化。这一分化揭示了两套截然不同的定价逻辑：短端在交易\"美联储即将停止加息\"，长端则在为庞大的财政赤字、持续的通胀不确定性、大规模国债供给以及美联储公信力存疑等因素定价，投资者要求更高的久期风险补偿。正如分析人士所指出的，市场或许相信美联储已完成加息。但这并不等同于市场相信通胀已被彻底压制。这一分歧，可能演变为今年下半年最具决定性意义的交易主线之一。杰克逊霍尔将成关键试金石当美联储官员两周后齐聚杰克逊霍尔，这将是主席沃什就任以来首次公开发言，市场将从中寻找关于经济前景与货币政策路径的明确信号。历史上，美联储主席惯于利用该论坛为9月政策行动预先铺垫，或宣布重大框架调整。前亚特兰大联储主席Dennis Lockhart在接受雅虎财经采访时直言：这是一个相当紧张的时刻——经济形势充满不确定性，市场对7月新闻发布会做出了激烈反应，委员会内部出现分歧，围绕沃什初期表现的质疑也未散去。Lockhart指出，有观点认为，随着关税影响消退、霍尔木兹问题得到解决，通胀将自然回落至2%目标，但\"这是一场赌注，我认为有些官员对以此作为决策依据保持着合理的谨慎甚至怀疑\"。在他看来，一两个月的通胀软数据并不足以改变美联储的基本叙事。通胀已持续五年以上高于目标，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业，就业市场是否真正走软尚无定论。8月26日的PCE数据将在杰克逊霍尔会议前夕发布，而8月CPI往往波动较大，将在9月会议前数日才能落地。这意味着，9月加息与否，最终仍将是纯粹的数据依赖，任何一个意外的数字都可能令当前市场定价再度逆转。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UDN":1.5,"QQQ":2,"AGG":1.5,"WAMA":1.5,"SVXY":0.6,"MUB":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"VIX":2,"SHY":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"VGIT":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"ESmain":2,"KBE":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"VIXY":2,"CIVG":1.5,"VXX":2,".DJI":2,"PBDC":1.5,"NEMD":1.5,"SVIX":0.6,"VGSH":1.5,"JULD":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"UVXY":0.6,"BOXX":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"UVIX":0.6,"EBUF":1.5,"IEF":1.5,".IXIC":2,"VCSH":1.5,"VEXC":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"SQQQ":2,"VIXmain":2,"BND":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"TLTW":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"SHV":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"TBIL":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"VCIT":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"NQmain":2,"UBT":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"TMF":1.5,".SPX":2,"FAZ":1.5,"YMmain":2,"SPY":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"MYCN":1.5,"LIAJ":1.5,"TQQQ":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382058205,"gmtCreate":1613314668407,"gmtModify":1613353107548,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","idStr":"3574914618440647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","listText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","text":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382058205","repostId":"2111008373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
