li1986的个人主页 - 老虎社区

li1986

li1986

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

9关注

2粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-07-30

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$time to load up more?

2021-06-26

Cool

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-13

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

Ok

The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>

2021-06-11

Cool

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-11

Cool

Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>

2021-06-11

france and mbappe!!

@话题虎:端午节福利：欧洲杯明天开幕！有些看点？

2021-06-11

Cool

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-10

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-08

Ok cool

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-07

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-06

Ok

Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>

2021-06-06

Alright man

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-04

Seemsgoodtime

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-03

Cool

DoorDash: Best Case Scenario, This Is Fairly Priced Now<blockquote>DoorDash：最好的情况，现在价格合理</blockquote>

2021-06-02

Ok

Zoom Video to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>Zoom Video将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>

2021-06-02

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-31

I see

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-26

Alright

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-24

Cool//@Alanleejw: Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3573205405294282","uuid":"3573205405294282","gmtCreate":1610111538051,"gmtModify":1619598154728,"name":"li1986","pinyin":"li1986","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":9,"tweetSize":25,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":2,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":806387949,"gmtCreate":1627633050681,"gmtModify":1631889357210,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>time to load up more?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>time to load up more?","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$time to load up more?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806387949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125551076,"gmtCreate":1624681658695,"gmtModify":1631889357231,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125551076","repostId":"1198714523","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186403308,"gmtCreate":1623515676104,"gmtModify":1631889357272,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186403308","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188648173,"gmtCreate":1623436174792,"gmtModify":1631889357275,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188648173","repostId":"1114257617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114257617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623425495,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114257617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114257617","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on","content":"<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带！通货膨胀来了！”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在整个美国飙升”）的有害影响，促使即使是无聊的卖方研究也变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通胀即将爆发”，“让全球经济坐在一颗定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚吐遍了美联储的“暂时”论点”）现在公开声称<i>美联储错了</i>美国正面临前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通胀时期，德国央行甚至警告<i>“政策制定者将面临自上世纪80年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</i></blockquote></p><p> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>但所有这些都没有吓到美联储承认——或相信——通胀只不过是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯...更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p><p><blockquote><b>出示附件A</b>：两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登令人兴奋的财富将结束，很快他们将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起6个月）在3个主要支出类别：住宅、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p><p><blockquote>降幅如此之大，相当于购买家电意向的最大单月降幅...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and homes...</p><p><blockquote>...还有家...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p><p><blockquote>这证实了我们之前提到的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜哪一个最终会很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p><p><blockquote>快进到今天我们刚刚得到<b>证据B：六月密歇根情绪调查。</b></blockquote></p><p> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但未来1年和5-10年的通胀预期均略有下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p><p><blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷(Richard Curtin)所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家庭耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创纪录以来的最糟糕水平。</blockquote></p><p> And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如科廷补充的那样，“<b>这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和房屋的整体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。</b>对于收入排名前三分之一的人来说，这些下降尤其严重，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote></p><p> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p><p><blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“不良购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于价格飙升，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p><p><blockquote>不管是好是坏，<b>尖叫的不仅是滞胀，还有永久上涨的价格，</b>正如柯廷所阐述的：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i>   <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>  The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p><p><blockquote><i>...在疫情的出现中，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低。</i><i><b>如果退出时间很长，人们接受疫情导致的价格上涨，使得通胀心理更有可能站稳脚跟。</b></i>问题是：刺激迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经被固定得更高，祝你好运，试图拉低价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>  Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p><p><blockquote><i>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然是必要的，但随之而来的通胀上升将造成分配不均的影响。六月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会浇灭任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。</i>哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主们非常清楚，延长失业救济金的繁荣将于9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌入劳动力市场，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主不提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯...只要等到10月份，一切都会逆转，山姆大叔不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p><p><blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于满足需求并大幅推高价格（而不是大幅上涨）的生产商和零售商将面临严峻的选择：要么直接拉低价格，要么销售更少的商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote></p><p> One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的：<b>从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会更加丑陋。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 23:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带！通货膨胀来了！”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在整个美国飙升”）的有害影响，促使即使是无聊的卖方研究也变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通胀即将爆发”，“让全球经济坐在一颗定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚吐遍了美联储的“暂时”论点”）现在公开声称<i>美联储错了</i>美国正面临前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通胀时期，德国央行甚至警告<i>“政策制定者将面临自上世纪80年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</i></blockquote></p><p> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>但所有这些都没有吓到美联储承认——或相信——通胀只不过是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯...更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p><p><blockquote><b>出示附件A</b>：两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登令人兴奋的财富将结束，很快他们将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起6个月）在3个主要支出类别：住宅、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p><p><blockquote>降幅如此之大，相当于购买家电意向的最大单月降幅...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and homes...</p><p><blockquote>...还有家...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p><p><blockquote>这证实了我们之前提到的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜哪一个最终会很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p><p><blockquote>快进到今天我们刚刚得到<b>证据B：六月密歇根情绪调查。</b></blockquote></p><p> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但未来1年和5-10年的通胀预期均略有下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p><p><blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷(Richard Curtin)所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家庭耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创纪录以来的最糟糕水平。</blockquote></p><p> And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如科廷补充的那样，“<b>这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和房屋的整体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。</b>对于收入排名前三分之一的人来说，这些下降尤其严重，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote></p><p> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p><p><blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“不良购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于价格飙升，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p><p><blockquote>不管是好是坏，<b>尖叫的不仅是滞胀，还有永久上涨的价格，</b>正如柯廷所阐述的：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i>   <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>  The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p><p><blockquote><i>...在疫情的出现中，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低。</i><i><b>如果退出时间很长，人们接受疫情导致的价格上涨，使得通胀心理更有可能站稳脚跟。</b></i>问题是：刺激迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经被固定得更高，祝你好运，试图拉低价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>  Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p><p><blockquote><i>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然是必要的，但随之而来的通胀上升将造成分配不均的影响。六月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会浇灭任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。</i>哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主们非常清楚，延长失业救济金的繁荣将于9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌入劳动力市场，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主不提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯...只要等到10月份，一切都会逆转，山姆大叔不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p><p><blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于满足需求并大幅推高价格（而不是大幅上涨）的生产商和零售商将面临严峻的选择：要么直接拉低价格，要么销售更少的商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote></p><p> One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的：<b>从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会更加丑陋。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114257617","content_text":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"\nBut none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.\nPresenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.\n\nThe drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...\n\n... and homes...\n\nThis confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.\n\nFast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.\nWhile there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...\n\n... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.\nAnd as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"\nThis can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.\n\nThis, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:\n\n... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.\nThe acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.\n\nThe problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.\n\nWhile expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.\n\nOh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.\nWhat does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.\nOne thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188087451,"gmtCreate":1623416509273,"gmtModify":1631889357288,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188087451","repostId":"1131879907","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188002643,"gmtCreate":1623414811282,"gmtModify":1631889357310,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188002643","repostId":"1147816654","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147816654","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623411742,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147816654?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147816654","media":"The Street","summary":"In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop","content":"<p>  <b>In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.</b>  The Reddit army is back in full force!</p><p><blockquote><b>在上次meme股票上涨中，继游戏驿站和AMC之后，贵金属成为Reddit交易者的目标。</b>Reddit大军全面回归！</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.</p><p><blockquote>在网站上WallStreetBets论坛成员寻求做空大型对冲基金的推动下，Meme股票在2021年初首次崭露头角。游戏驿站（GME）是首选股票，其股价从元旦的每股18美元左右上涨至最高点的近500美元。很快，AMC院线(AMC)、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)、Express(EXPR)和黑莓(BB)等公司也加入了进来。经过短暂的中断后，该集团重新将AMC作为他们的首选股票。</blockquote></p><p> One stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was the<b>iShares Silver Trust (SLV)</b>. It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>这群人追逐的一只股票根本不是股票。这是<b>iShares白银信托(SLV)</b>毫不奇怪，它始于Eddit的一篇帖子，一位交易员在帖子中辩称，贵金属价格多年来一直被大银行操纵，可能是下一次大挤压的理想目标。</blockquote></p><p> So they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.</p><p><blockquote>所以他们尝试了一下，并且成功了.......一天。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1d77c395486d36223fb07516c1b28c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"308\">Silver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.</p><p><blockquote>有消息称WallStreetBets人群将追捧白银，白银价格（以及SLV的价格）上涨了约10%，但涨势是短暂的。第二天股价回落至飙升前的水平，但仍未再次接近之前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> It turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，移动一只股票，比如AMC，和移动白银的价格是完全不同的两件事。虽然许多人一想到银就会想到珠宝和银器，但实际上，银的主要需求来自重工业。</blockquote></p><p> It's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars &amp; coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.</p><p><blockquote>它用于生产太阳能电池板、电子元件、保险丝、汽车和工业粘合剂。2020年，用于工业制造的Silverdemandin是珠宝市场的三倍多，银条和银币的两倍多，银器的15倍多。</blockquote></p><p> With that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球对白银的需求如此稳定，预计只会继续增长，因此很难大幅调整其价格（尤其是达到Reddit呼吁的每盎司1,000美元的价格目标）。老实说，我有点惊讶，仅靠模因股票投机，它就能够在一天内产生10%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站等股票规模足够小（从技术上讲，它们可能不再被视为“小”），只要有足够的交易量，它们就可以在相当短的时间内大幅上涨。此外，Reddit交易员瞄准的股票已经有很高的空头兴趣，这意味着任何大规模的购买活动都可能因人们为了止血而进行空头回补而加剧。</blockquote></p><p> That's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.</p><p><blockquote>对于白银来说，这将很难实现。我的猜测是，WallStreetBets集团再也不会向白银发起攻击了。它似乎满足于寻找新的目标，如三叶草（CLOV），试图向月球推进。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 19:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.</b>  The Reddit army is back in full force!</p><p><blockquote><b>在上次meme股票上涨中，继游戏驿站和AMC之后，贵金属成为Reddit交易者的目标。</b>Reddit大军全面回归！</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.</p><p><blockquote>在网站上WallStreetBets论坛成员寻求做空大型对冲基金的推动下，Meme股票在2021年初首次崭露头角。游戏驿站（GME）是首选股票，其股价从元旦的每股18美元左右上涨至最高点的近500美元。很快，AMC院线(AMC)、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)、Express(EXPR)和黑莓(BB)等公司也加入了进来。经过短暂的中断后，该集团重新将AMC作为他们的首选股票。</blockquote></p><p> One stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was the<b>iShares Silver Trust (SLV)</b>. It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>这群人追逐的一只股票根本不是股票。这是<b>iShares白银信托(SLV)</b>毫不奇怪，它始于Eddit的一篇帖子，一位交易员在帖子中辩称，贵金属价格多年来一直被大银行操纵，可能是下一次大挤压的理想目标。</blockquote></p><p> So they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.</p><p><blockquote>所以他们尝试了一下，并且成功了.......一天。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1d77c395486d36223fb07516c1b28c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"308\">Silver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.</p><p><blockquote>有消息称WallStreetBets人群将追捧白银，白银价格（以及SLV的价格）上涨了约10%，但涨势是短暂的。第二天股价回落至飙升前的水平，但仍未再次接近之前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> It turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，移动一只股票，比如AMC，和移动白银的价格是完全不同的两件事。虽然许多人一想到银就会想到珠宝和银器，但实际上，银的主要需求来自重工业。</blockquote></p><p> It's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars &amp; coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.</p><p><blockquote>它用于生产太阳能电池板、电子元件、保险丝、汽车和工业粘合剂。2020年，用于工业制造的Silverdemandin是珠宝市场的三倍多，银条和银币的两倍多，银器的15倍多。</blockquote></p><p> With that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球对白银的需求如此稳定，预计只会继续增长，因此很难大幅调整其价格（尤其是达到Reddit呼吁的每盎司1,000美元的价格目标）。老实说，我有点惊讶，仅靠模因股票投机，它就能够在一天内产生10%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站等股票规模足够小（从技术上讲，它们可能不再被视为“小”），只要有足够的交易量，它们就可以在相当短的时间内大幅上涨。此外，Reddit交易员瞄准的股票已经有很高的空头兴趣，这意味着任何大规模的购买活动都可能因人们为了止血而进行空头回补而加剧。</blockquote></p><p> That's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.</p><p><blockquote>对于白银来说，这将很难实现。我的猜测是，WallStreetBets集团再也不会向白银发起攻击了。它似乎满足于寻找新的目标，如三叶草（CLOV），试图向月球推进。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/will-wallstreetbets-crowd-come-after-silver\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/will-wallstreetbets-crowd-come-after-silver","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147816654","content_text":"In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.\n\nThe Reddit army is back in full force!\nMeme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.\nOne stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was theiShares Silver Trust (SLV). It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.\nSo they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.\nSilver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.\nIt turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.\nIt's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars & coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.\nWith that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.\nStocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.\nThat's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181552677,"gmtCreate":1623403337099,"gmtModify":1631889357322,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"france and mbappe!!","listText":"france and mbappe!!","text":"france and mbappe!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181552677","repostId":"181584887","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":181584887,"gmtCreate":1623401994645,"gmtModify":1623404570813,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502767768442965","authorIdStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"端午节福利：欧洲杯明天开幕！有些看点？","htmlText":"北京时间明天（6月12日）凌晨，第16届欧洲杯将正式开赛。C罗、姆巴佩、德布劳内、凯恩、诺伊尔……各路巨星同场竞技，豪门球队神仙打架，全欧11座城市共同举办，看点满满！ 快收好这份观赛指南，这个夏天，一起享受足球盛宴↓↓↓ 入门篇 仅适用于对足球完全不了解的朋友 “欧洲杯能看到梅西吗？” 如果你的一位爱好足球的朋友听到了这样的问题，内心可能就如上图表情包所示……要想愉快地聊欧洲杯，可以先学学这些小知识，避免出现常识性错误。 进阶篇 本届欧洲杯，哪个小组被称为“死亡之组”？有哪些精彩看点？熬夜看球又该注意些什么？且听小编为你一一道来。 （以上内容转自：央视新闻） 足球运动是人类最伟大、最精彩的运动之一，巧的是这次开幕式正好赶上咱们的端午节，可谓是球迷们的福利啦~ 趁着这些天不开盘，虎友们也可以好好地放松一下！ 啤酒、爆米花、花生米燥起来！🤣 …… 最后，大家聊一聊： 你是否喜欢足球运动？看好哪些球队or球星？ 精彩留言用户可获得888社区积分噢！ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>","listText":"北京时间明天（6月12日）凌晨，第16届欧洲杯将正式开赛。C罗、姆巴佩、德布劳内、凯恩、诺伊尔……各路巨星同场竞技，豪门球队神仙打架，全欧11座城市共同举办，看点满满！ 快收好这份观赛指南，这个夏天，一起享受足球盛宴↓↓↓ 入门篇 仅适用于对足球完全不了解的朋友 “欧洲杯能看到梅西吗？” 如果你的一位爱好足球的朋友听到了这样的问题，内心可能就如上图表情包所示……要想愉快地聊欧洲杯，可以先学学这些小知识，避免出现常识性错误。 进阶篇 本届欧洲杯，哪个小组被称为“死亡之组”？有哪些精彩看点？熬夜看球又该注意些什么？且听小编为你一一道来。 （以上内容转自：央视新闻） 足球运动是人类最伟大、最精彩的运动之一，巧的是这次开幕式正好赶上咱们的端午节，可谓是球迷们的福利啦~ 趁着这些天不开盘，虎友们也可以好好地放松一下！ 啤酒、爆米花、花生米燥起来！🤣 …… 最后，大家聊一聊： 你是否喜欢足球运动？看好哪些球队or球星？ 精彩留言用户可获得888社区积分噢！ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>","text":"北京时间明天（6月12日）凌晨，第16届欧洲杯将正式开赛。C罗、姆巴佩、德布劳内、凯恩、诺伊尔……各路巨星同场竞技，豪门球队神仙打架，全欧11座城市共同举办，看点满满！ 快收好这份观赛指南，这个夏天，一起享受足球盛宴↓↓↓ 入门篇 仅适用于对足球完全不了解的朋友 “欧洲杯能看到梅西吗？” 如果你的一位爱好足球的朋友听到了这样的问题，内心可能就如上图表情包所示……要想愉快地聊欧洲杯，可以先学学这些小知识，避免出现常识性错误。 进阶篇 本届欧洲杯，哪个小组被称为“死亡之组”？有哪些精彩看点？熬夜看球又该注意些什么？且听小编为你一一道来。 （以上内容转自：央视新闻） 足球运动是人类最伟大、最精彩的运动之一，巧的是这次开幕式正好赶上咱们的端午节，可谓是球迷们的福利啦~ 趁着这些天不开盘，虎友们也可以好好地放松一下！ 啤酒、爆米花、花生米燥起来！🤣 …… 最后，大家聊一聊： 你是否喜欢足球运动？看好哪些球队or球星？ 精彩留言用户可获得888社区积分噢！ $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b9eaa22e8b15bc372b5519f69295e3","width":"1080","height":"3336"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b408705efb6828321245d11440099f6a","width":"1080","height":"895"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6968eee982e196011498e7f1789856","width":"1080","height":"2500"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181584887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":13,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181527925,"gmtCreate":1623402984767,"gmtModify":1631889357336,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181527925","repostId":"2142240312","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183570906,"gmtCreate":1623337848105,"gmtModify":1631889357346,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183570906","repostId":"1128810191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114442133,"gmtCreate":1623100609622,"gmtModify":1631889357367,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok cool","listText":"Ok cool","text":"Ok cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114442133","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115267782,"gmtCreate":1623014337646,"gmtModify":1631891040076,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115267782","repostId":"1102972710","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115157024,"gmtCreate":1622962329068,"gmtModify":1631891040079,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115157024","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并且可能会让ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍连续下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并且可能会让ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍连续下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115155141,"gmtCreate":1622962168383,"gmtModify":1631891040089,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright man","listText":"Alright man","text":"Alright man","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115155141","repostId":"2140540596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118463168,"gmtCreate":1622754735354,"gmtModify":1631891040084,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seemsgoodtime","listText":"Seemsgoodtime","text":"Seemsgoodtime","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118463168","repostId":"2140247164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111830643,"gmtCreate":1622674203482,"gmtModify":1631891040121,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111830643","repostId":"1136539394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136539394","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622645429,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136539394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 22:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DoorDash: Best Case Scenario, This Is Fairly Priced Now<blockquote>DoorDash：最好的情况，现在价格合理</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136539394","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAn investment in DoorDash brings up many questions, such as, what's DoorDash's stable reven","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An investment in DoorDash brings up many questions, such as, what's DoorDash's stable revenue growth rate once the economy reopens.</li>  <li>Investors are being asked to pay up 44x forward contribution profits - a rich price tag.</li>  <li>In the best case, this investment is already fairly priced. Worst case, the stock is very expensive for what it is.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf069f93e17a1c17f3903683376a3070\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对DoorDash的投资会带来许多问题，例如，一旦经济重新开放，DoorDash的稳定收入增长率是多少。</li><li>投资者被要求支付44倍的远期贡献利润——这是一个丰厚的价格标签。</li><li>在最好的情况下，这项投资已经定价合理。最坏的情况是，该股票就其本身而言非常昂贵。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)is a fast-growing food delivery platform. Yet, it's very difficult to find its sustainable revenue growth rate for the coming twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>DoorDash（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DASH）是一个快速增长的食品配送平台。然而，很难找到未来12个月的可持续收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, given that the stock is already valued at close to 44x forward contribution profits, I don't see this investment as particularly compelling.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，鉴于该股的估值已经接近44倍的远期贡献利润，我认为这项投资并不特别引人注目。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, even if DoorDash's growth rates start to stabilize, I am unsure of whether this business has enough pricing power to be rewarded with such a premium valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，即使DoorDash的增长率开始稳定，我也不确定这项业务是否有足够的定价权来获得如此溢价的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates Aren't the Full Story</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率并不是全部</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fa2e884d0a9f8e36e9404097228d05\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Q1 2021 Investor Letter</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021年第一季度投资者信</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the graph above describes one story. The story that bulls are holding on to. Specifically, bulls make the case that DoorDash is evidently growing at such a fast clip with Q1 2021 reporting 198% y/y revenue growth that investors should be willing to pay up for these sort of revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，上图描述了一个故事。多头坚持的故事。具体来说，看多者认为，DoorDash的增长速度显然如此之快，2021年第一季度的收入同比增长198%，投资者应该愿意为这种收入增长率买单。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, bears contend that if we consider DoorDash's guidance for the quarter ahead it's pointing towards Marketplace GOV of $9.9 billion at the high end, which equates to roughly 61% y/y growth for Marketplace GOV.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，看空者认为，如果我们考虑DoorDash对未来季度的指引，它指向Marketplace GOV的高端目标为99亿美元，这相当于Marketplace GOV的同比增长约61%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Digging Into the Positive and Negatives of DoorDash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>挖掘DoorDash的优点和缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> Presently we are faced with a slight problem.</p><p><blockquote>目前我们面临一个小问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the bullish thesis to work out positively, investors need to be confident as to what DoorDash's sustainable revenue growth rates are going to be as we move over the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>为了使看涨论点取得积极成果，投资者需要对未来12个月DoorDash的可持续收入增长率充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Because for a high growth stock to&nbsp;guide&nbsp;towards decelerating revenue growth rates, that's always going to cause investor anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>因为对于一只高增长股票来说，引导收入增长率减速总是会引起投资者的焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Although, it's inevitable that at&nbsp;<i>some point</i>&nbsp;DoorDash's revenue growth rates are bound to<i>start</i>&nbsp;to decelerate. In fact, it's fairly obvious that DoorDash wasn't going to continue growing its revenues at north of 170% y/y for a prolonged period of time.</p><p><blockquote>虽然，不可避免的是<i>某一点</i>DoorDash的收入增长率必然会<i>开始</i>减速。事实上，很明显，DoorDash的收入不会在很长一段时间内继续以超过170%的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, the issue gets further complicated because the<i>pace</i>at which DoorDash is slowing growth is causing some questions to surface, such as, at what revenue growth rate will DoorDash stabilize?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这个问题变得更加复杂，因为<i>步伐</i>DoorDash的增长放缓引发了一些问题，例如，DoorDash的收入增长率将稳定在多少？</blockquote></p><p> If, for instance, DoorDash was able to somehow report more than 80% y/y revenue growth rates for its quarter ending June 2021, this would largely put to the rest of the overarching concern investors have that as the economy reopens, that the demand for its platform is slowing demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果DoorDash能够以某种方式报告截至2021年6月的季度收入同比增长率超过80%，这将在很大程度上解决投资者对经济重新开放的其他首要担忧，即对其平台的需求正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, if DoorDash could indeed grow its revenues at 80% y/y, this would demonstrate to investors that DoorDash's business is not maturing and that it has a leading position in a rapidly growing market and that investors are justified in paying a very large multiple for this high growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果DoorDash的收入确实能够同比增长80%，这将向投资者表明DoorDash的业务尚未成熟，并且它在快速增长的市场中处于领先地位，投资者有理由支付非常高的价格这只高增长股票的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> Having said all this, even if DoorDash were to somehow indeed report 80% y/y revenue growth for its upcoming Q2 2021 period, bears would be right to at least<i>tentatively</i>make the argument that, during Q1 2021, DoorDash's revenue growth rates were close to 200%, whereas 90 days later its growth rates have slowed down by more than 100% from one quarter to the next.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，即使DoorDash确实报告即将到来的2021年第二季度收入同比增长80%，看空者至少是正确的<i>暂时地</i>可以说，在2021年第一季度，DoorDash的收入增长率接近200%，而90天后，其增长率从一个季度到下一个季度放缓了100%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Please note, I'm not comparing sequential growth rates between Q1 and Q2 2021, but y/y growth rates. Consequently, I'm declaring that DoorDash's growth rates are unpredictable.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，我不是在比较Q1和Q2 2021年的环比增长率，而是同比增长率。因此，我宣布DoorDash的增长率是不可预测的。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the case remains, that as DoorDash comes up against those particularly challenging comps, the most pressing of which being Q3 2021. Investors are going to be tested on their ultimate conviction as to whether DoorDash has enough of a moat around its operation, or not. And, if DoorDash can deliver more value to Dashers than other food delivery companies to their own merchants, or not.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，DoorDash仍然面临着那些特别具有挑战性的竞争，其中最紧迫的是2021年第三季度。投资者的最终信念将受到考验，即DoorDash的运营是否有足够的护城河。而且，DoorDash是否能为Dashers提供比其他食品配送公司为自己的商家提供更多的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation -- Difficult to Find Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——难寻上行空间</b></blockquote></p><p> I know that DoorDash is not a ''bottom-line stock''. It's a story stock where the narrative is squared on it being a high-growth stock. However, our discussion allows us to momentarily focus on its EBITDA trend.</p><p><blockquote>我知道DoorDash不是一只“底线股票”。这是一只故事股票，其叙事与它是一只高增长股票相一致。然而，我们的讨论使我们能够暂时关注其EBITDA趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Q2 2021, DoorDash is guiding for $100 million of EBITDA. This is a 27% y/y increase with the same period a year ago. But when a company is largely expected to grow its top-line by somewhere around 60% and perhaps as much as 80% y/y in the quarter ahead, while its EBITDA is only being guided to grow for sub 30% y/y growth, this forces the question as to whether DoorDash has positive operating leverage or not?</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度，DoorDash预计EBITDA为1亿美元。与去年同期相比，同比增长27%。但是，当一家公司的营收预计将在未来一个季度同比增长60%左右，甚至可能高达80%，而其EBITDA仅被引导同比增长低于30%时，这就提出了DoorDash是否具有正运营杠杆的问题？</blockquote></p><p> Consider that DoorDash's guided $38 billion Marketplace GOV and let us further make the bullish argument that DoorDash's contribution margin reaches a high of 3% for 2021. This would imply that DoorDash's contribution profit for the year reaches $1.1 billion. In that case, DoorDash is valued at approximately 44x forward contribution profits.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下DoorDash指导的380亿美元Marketplace GOV，让我们进一步提出看涨论点，即DoorDash的贡献率在2021年将达到3%的高位。这意味着DoorDash今年的贡献利润将达到11亿美元。在这种情况下，DoorDash的估值约为远期贡献利润的44倍。</blockquote></p><p> For a company without tangible pricing power around its operations, and a rapidly decelerating top-line growth, I am struggling to find its upside potential here.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家在运营方面没有切实定价权且营收增长迅速放缓的公司来说，我很难在这里找到它的上升潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I have attempted to lay out a balanced argument of the puts and takes that investors should consider when it comes to DoorDash.</p><p><blockquote>我试图对投资者在谈到DoorDash时应该考虑的看跌期权和看涨期权提出一个平衡的论点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Bulls would be correct to argue that DoorDash is not looking to maximize its profits at this stage in the game</i>. For now, DoorDash will do whatever it can to reinvest its bottom line, in order to sustainably grow its top line and carve out market share.</p><p><blockquote><i>多头认为DoorDash在游戏的现阶段并不寻求利润最大化，这是正确的</i>目前，DoorDash将尽一切努力对其利润进行再投资，以可持续地增长其营收并开拓市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> However, given that its revenue growth rates are rapidly decelerating, we are only right to question whether DoorDash's reinvestment of its profit carries compelling ROI?</p><p><blockquote>然而，鉴于其收入增长率正在迅速减速，我们质疑DoorDash的利润再投资是否会带来令人信服的投资回报率是正确的？</blockquote></p><p> I declare that these questions are very difficult to correctly answer so I will be looking elsewhere to deploy my own capital. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>我声明这些问题很难正确回答，所以我将寻找其他地方来部署我自己的资本。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DoorDash: Best Case Scenario, This Is Fairly Priced Now<blockquote>DoorDash：最好的情况，现在价格合理</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoorDash: Best Case Scenario, This Is Fairly Priced Now<blockquote>DoorDash：最好的情况，现在价格合理</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 22:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An investment in DoorDash brings up many questions, such as, what's DoorDash's stable revenue growth rate once the economy reopens.</li>  <li>Investors are being asked to pay up 44x forward contribution profits - a rich price tag.</li>  <li>In the best case, this investment is already fairly priced. Worst case, the stock is very expensive for what it is.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf069f93e17a1c17f3903683376a3070\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对DoorDash的投资会带来许多问题，例如，一旦经济重新开放，DoorDash的稳定收入增长率是多少。</li><li>投资者被要求支付44倍的远期贡献利润——这是一个丰厚的价格标签。</li><li>在最好的情况下，这项投资已经定价合理。最坏的情况是，该股票就其本身而言非常昂贵。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)is a fast-growing food delivery platform. Yet, it's very difficult to find its sustainable revenue growth rate for the coming twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>DoorDash（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DASH）是一个快速增长的食品配送平台。然而，很难找到未来12个月的可持续收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, given that the stock is already valued at close to 44x forward contribution profits, I don't see this investment as particularly compelling.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，鉴于该股的估值已经接近44倍的远期贡献利润，我认为这项投资并不特别引人注目。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, even if DoorDash's growth rates start to stabilize, I am unsure of whether this business has enough pricing power to be rewarded with such a premium valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，即使DoorDash的增长率开始稳定，我也不确定这项业务是否有足够的定价权来获得如此溢价的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates Aren't the Full Story</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率并不是全部</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fa2e884d0a9f8e36e9404097228d05\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Q1 2021 Investor Letter</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021年第一季度投资者信</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the graph above describes one story. The story that bulls are holding on to. Specifically, bulls make the case that DoorDash is evidently growing at such a fast clip with Q1 2021 reporting 198% y/y revenue growth that investors should be willing to pay up for these sort of revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，上图描述了一个故事。多头坚持的故事。具体来说，看多者认为，DoorDash的增长速度显然如此之快，2021年第一季度的收入同比增长198%，投资者应该愿意为这种收入增长率买单。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, bears contend that if we consider DoorDash's guidance for the quarter ahead it's pointing towards Marketplace GOV of $9.9 billion at the high end, which equates to roughly 61% y/y growth for Marketplace GOV.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，看空者认为，如果我们考虑DoorDash对未来季度的指引，它指向Marketplace GOV的高端目标为99亿美元，这相当于Marketplace GOV的同比增长约61%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Digging Into the Positive and Negatives of DoorDash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>挖掘DoorDash的优点和缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> Presently we are faced with a slight problem.</p><p><blockquote>目前我们面临一个小问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the bullish thesis to work out positively, investors need to be confident as to what DoorDash's sustainable revenue growth rates are going to be as we move over the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>为了使看涨论点取得积极成果，投资者需要对未来12个月DoorDash的可持续收入增长率充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Because for a high growth stock to&nbsp;guide&nbsp;towards decelerating revenue growth rates, that's always going to cause investor anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>因为对于一只高增长股票来说，引导收入增长率减速总是会引起投资者的焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Although, it's inevitable that at&nbsp;<i>some point</i>&nbsp;DoorDash's revenue growth rates are bound to<i>start</i>&nbsp;to decelerate. In fact, it's fairly obvious that DoorDash wasn't going to continue growing its revenues at north of 170% y/y for a prolonged period of time.</p><p><blockquote>虽然，不可避免的是<i>某一点</i>DoorDash的收入增长率必然会<i>开始</i>减速。事实上，很明显，DoorDash的收入不会在很长一段时间内继续以超过170%的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, the issue gets further complicated because the<i>pace</i>at which DoorDash is slowing growth is causing some questions to surface, such as, at what revenue growth rate will DoorDash stabilize?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这个问题变得更加复杂，因为<i>步伐</i>DoorDash的增长放缓引发了一些问题，例如，DoorDash的收入增长率将稳定在多少？</blockquote></p><p> If, for instance, DoorDash was able to somehow report more than 80% y/y revenue growth rates for its quarter ending June 2021, this would largely put to the rest of the overarching concern investors have that as the economy reopens, that the demand for its platform is slowing demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果DoorDash能够以某种方式报告截至2021年6月的季度收入同比增长率超过80%，这将在很大程度上解决投资者对经济重新开放的其他首要担忧，即对其平台的需求正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, if DoorDash could indeed grow its revenues at 80% y/y, this would demonstrate to investors that DoorDash's business is not maturing and that it has a leading position in a rapidly growing market and that investors are justified in paying a very large multiple for this high growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果DoorDash的收入确实能够同比增长80%，这将向投资者表明DoorDash的业务尚未成熟，并且它在快速增长的市场中处于领先地位，投资者有理由支付非常高的价格这只高增长股票的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> Having said all this, even if DoorDash were to somehow indeed report 80% y/y revenue growth for its upcoming Q2 2021 period, bears would be right to at least<i>tentatively</i>make the argument that, during Q1 2021, DoorDash's revenue growth rates were close to 200%, whereas 90 days later its growth rates have slowed down by more than 100% from one quarter to the next.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，即使DoorDash确实报告即将到来的2021年第二季度收入同比增长80%，看空者至少是正确的<i>暂时地</i>可以说，在2021年第一季度，DoorDash的收入增长率接近200%，而90天后，其增长率从一个季度到下一个季度放缓了100%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Please note, I'm not comparing sequential growth rates between Q1 and Q2 2021, but y/y growth rates. Consequently, I'm declaring that DoorDash's growth rates are unpredictable.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，我不是在比较Q1和Q2 2021年的环比增长率，而是同比增长率。因此，我宣布DoorDash的增长率是不可预测的。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the case remains, that as DoorDash comes up against those particularly challenging comps, the most pressing of which being Q3 2021. Investors are going to be tested on their ultimate conviction as to whether DoorDash has enough of a moat around its operation, or not. And, if DoorDash can deliver more value to Dashers than other food delivery companies to their own merchants, or not.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，DoorDash仍然面临着那些特别具有挑战性的竞争，其中最紧迫的是2021年第三季度。投资者的最终信念将受到考验，即DoorDash的运营是否有足够的护城河。而且，DoorDash是否能为Dashers提供比其他食品配送公司为自己的商家提供更多的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation -- Difficult to Find Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——难寻上行空间</b></blockquote></p><p> I know that DoorDash is not a ''bottom-line stock''. It's a story stock where the narrative is squared on it being a high-growth stock. However, our discussion allows us to momentarily focus on its EBITDA trend.</p><p><blockquote>我知道DoorDash不是一只“底线股票”。这是一只故事股票，其叙事与它是一只高增长股票相一致。然而，我们的讨论使我们能够暂时关注其EBITDA趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Q2 2021, DoorDash is guiding for $100 million of EBITDA. This is a 27% y/y increase with the same period a year ago. But when a company is largely expected to grow its top-line by somewhere around 60% and perhaps as much as 80% y/y in the quarter ahead, while its EBITDA is only being guided to grow for sub 30% y/y growth, this forces the question as to whether DoorDash has positive operating leverage or not?</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度，DoorDash预计EBITDA为1亿美元。与去年同期相比，同比增长27%。但是，当一家公司的营收预计将在未来一个季度同比增长60%左右，甚至可能高达80%，而其EBITDA仅被引导同比增长低于30%时，这就提出了DoorDash是否具有正运营杠杆的问题？</blockquote></p><p> Consider that DoorDash's guided $38 billion Marketplace GOV and let us further make the bullish argument that DoorDash's contribution margin reaches a high of 3% for 2021. This would imply that DoorDash's contribution profit for the year reaches $1.1 billion. In that case, DoorDash is valued at approximately 44x forward contribution profits.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下DoorDash指导的380亿美元Marketplace GOV，让我们进一步提出看涨论点，即DoorDash的贡献率在2021年将达到3%的高位。这意味着DoorDash今年的贡献利润将达到11亿美元。在这种情况下，DoorDash的估值约为远期贡献利润的44倍。</blockquote></p><p> For a company without tangible pricing power around its operations, and a rapidly decelerating top-line growth, I am struggling to find its upside potential here.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家在运营方面没有切实定价权且营收增长迅速放缓的公司来说，我很难在这里找到它的上升潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I have attempted to lay out a balanced argument of the puts and takes that investors should consider when it comes to DoorDash.</p><p><blockquote>我试图对投资者在谈到DoorDash时应该考虑的看跌期权和看涨期权提出一个平衡的论点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Bulls would be correct to argue that DoorDash is not looking to maximize its profits at this stage in the game</i>. For now, DoorDash will do whatever it can to reinvest its bottom line, in order to sustainably grow its top line and carve out market share.</p><p><blockquote><i>多头认为DoorDash在游戏的现阶段并不寻求利润最大化，这是正确的</i>目前，DoorDash将尽一切努力对其利润进行再投资，以可持续地增长其营收并开拓市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> However, given that its revenue growth rates are rapidly decelerating, we are only right to question whether DoorDash's reinvestment of its profit carries compelling ROI?</p><p><blockquote>然而，鉴于其收入增长率正在迅速减速，我们质疑DoorDash的利润再投资是否会带来令人信服的投资回报率是正确的？</blockquote></p><p> I declare that these questions are very difficult to correctly answer so I will be looking elsewhere to deploy my own capital. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>我声明这些问题很难正确回答，所以我将寻找其他地方来部署我自己的资本。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432590-doordash-best-case-scenario-this-is-fairly-priced-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DASH":"DoorDash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432590-doordash-best-case-scenario-this-is-fairly-priced-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136539394","content_text":"Summary\n\nAn investment in DoorDash brings up many questions, such as, what's DoorDash's stable revenue growth rate once the economy reopens.\nInvestors are being asked to pay up 44x forward contribution profits - a rich price tag.\nIn the best case, this investment is already fairly priced. Worst case, the stock is very expensive for what it is.\n\nPhoto by Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nDoorDash(NYSE:DASH)is a fast-growing food delivery platform. Yet, it's very difficult to find its sustainable revenue growth rate for the coming twelve months.\nWhat's more, given that the stock is already valued at close to 44x forward contribution profits, I don't see this investment as particularly compelling.\nMoreover, even if DoorDash's growth rates start to stabilize, I am unsure of whether this business has enough pricing power to be rewarded with such a premium valuation.\nRevenue Growth Rates Aren't the Full Story\nSource: Q1 2021 Investor Letter\nOn the one hand, the graph above describes one story. The story that bulls are holding on to. Specifically, bulls make the case that DoorDash is evidently growing at such a fast clip with Q1 2021 reporting 198% y/y revenue growth that investors should be willing to pay up for these sort of revenue growth rates.\nOn the other hand, bears contend that if we consider DoorDash's guidance for the quarter ahead it's pointing towards Marketplace GOV of $9.9 billion at the high end, which equates to roughly 61% y/y growth for Marketplace GOV.\nDigging Into the Positive and Negatives of DoorDash\nPresently we are faced with a slight problem.\nFor the bullish thesis to work out positively, investors need to be confident as to what DoorDash's sustainable revenue growth rates are going to be as we move over the next twelve months.\nBecause for a high growth stock to guide towards decelerating revenue growth rates, that's always going to cause investor anxiety.\nAlthough, it's inevitable that at some point DoorDash's revenue growth rates are bound tostart to decelerate. In fact, it's fairly obvious that DoorDash wasn't going to continue growing its revenues at north of 170% y/y for a prolonged period of time.\nNonetheless, the issue gets further complicated because thepaceat which DoorDash is slowing growth is causing some questions to surface, such as, at what revenue growth rate will DoorDash stabilize?\nIf, for instance, DoorDash was able to somehow report more than 80% y/y revenue growth rates for its quarter ending June 2021, this would largely put to the rest of the overarching concern investors have that as the economy reopens, that the demand for its platform is slowing demand.\nFurthermore, if DoorDash could indeed grow its revenues at 80% y/y, this would demonstrate to investors that DoorDash's business is not maturing and that it has a leading position in a rapidly growing market and that investors are justified in paying a very large multiple for this high growth stock.\nHaving said all this, even if DoorDash were to somehow indeed report 80% y/y revenue growth for its upcoming Q2 2021 period, bears would be right to at leasttentativelymake the argument that, during Q1 2021, DoorDash's revenue growth rates were close to 200%, whereas 90 days later its growth rates have slowed down by more than 100% from one quarter to the next.\nPlease note, I'm not comparing sequential growth rates between Q1 and Q2 2021, but y/y growth rates. Consequently, I'm declaring that DoorDash's growth rates are unpredictable.\nNevertheless, the case remains, that as DoorDash comes up against those particularly challenging comps, the most pressing of which being Q3 2021. Investors are going to be tested on their ultimate conviction as to whether DoorDash has enough of a moat around its operation, or not. And, if DoorDash can deliver more value to Dashers than other food delivery companies to their own merchants, or not.\nValuation -- Difficult to Find Upside Potential\nI know that DoorDash is not a ''bottom-line stock''. It's a story stock where the narrative is squared on it being a high-growth stock. However, our discussion allows us to momentarily focus on its EBITDA trend.\nFor Q2 2021, DoorDash is guiding for $100 million of EBITDA. This is a 27% y/y increase with the same period a year ago. But when a company is largely expected to grow its top-line by somewhere around 60% and perhaps as much as 80% y/y in the quarter ahead, while its EBITDA is only being guided to grow for sub 30% y/y growth, this forces the question as to whether DoorDash has positive operating leverage or not?\nConsider that DoorDash's guided $38 billion Marketplace GOV and let us further make the bullish argument that DoorDash's contribution margin reaches a high of 3% for 2021. This would imply that DoorDash's contribution profit for the year reaches $1.1 billion. In that case, DoorDash is valued at approximately 44x forward contribution profits.\nFor a company without tangible pricing power around its operations, and a rapidly decelerating top-line growth, I am struggling to find its upside potential here.\nThe Bottom Line\nI have attempted to lay out a balanced argument of the puts and takes that investors should consider when it comes to DoorDash.\nBulls would be correct to argue that DoorDash is not looking to maximize its profits at this stage in the game. For now, DoorDash will do whatever it can to reinvest its bottom line, in order to sustainably grow its top line and carve out market share.\nHowever, given that its revenue growth rates are rapidly decelerating, we are only right to question whether DoorDash's reinvestment of its profit carries compelling ROI?\nI declare that these questions are very difficult to correctly answer so I will be looking elsewhere to deploy my own capital. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DASH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113080053,"gmtCreate":1622585087772,"gmtModify":1631891040089,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113080053","repostId":"2138889344","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138889344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546894,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2138889344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zoom Video to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>Zoom Video将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138889344","media":"Zacks","summary":"Zoom Video Communications is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 1.For the quarte","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications</b> is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 1.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>视频通信</b>定于6月1日公布2022财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>For the quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings between 95 cents and 97 cents per share. Total revenues are expected between $900 million and $905 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计本季度非GAAP每股收益在95美分至97美分之间。总收入预计在9亿美元至9.05亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stayed at 97 cents per share over the past 30 days. The company had reported earnings of 20 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>过去30天，Zacks对收益的一致预期保持在每股97美分。该公司报告去年同期每股收益为20美分。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $905.2 million, suggesting 175.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>收入的共识为9.052亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长175.8%。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc75f53073be8992ce4f8cf58d4ebd0a\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"264\"><span>Zoom Video Communications, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Quote</span></p><p><blockquote><h3>Zoom Video通信公司。价格和每股收益惊喜</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Zoom Video通信公司价格-每股收益-惊喜|Zoom Video通信公司报价</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Zoom’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 73.2%.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom的收益在过去四个季度都超过了Zacks的普遍预期，平均意外率为73.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看这个公告的进展如何。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Factors to Watch</h3>Zoom’s fiscal first-quarter revenues are expected to have benefited from the coronavirus-induced work-from-home and online-learning wave despite the vaccination campaigns.</p><p><blockquote><h3>值得关注的因素</h3>尽管开展了疫苗接种活动，但Zoom第一财季的收入预计仍将受益于冠状病毒引发的在家工作和在线学习浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Notably, the company’s freemium business model helps it win customers rapidly, whom it can later convert into paying customers. Net dollar-expansion rate on a trailing twelve-month basis was more than 156% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021. The momentum is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司的免费增值商业模式帮助其快速赢得客户，然后可以将这些客户转化为付费客户。2021财年第四季度，过去12个月的美元净增长率超过156%。预计这一势头将在即将报告的季度持续下去。</blockquote></p><p>Further, the availability of Zoom For Home, which supports remote working for business professionals, has been a key catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>此外，支持商务专业人士远程工作的Zoom For Home的可用性是一个关键的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p>Additionally, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s strong partner base, that includes the likes of <b>Atlassian</b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a></b> and Dropbox, is expected to have benefited the company in winning enterprise customers in fiscal first quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这家Zacks排名第二（购买）的公司拥有强大的合作伙伴基础，其中包括<b>Atlassian</b>,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">服务现在</a></b>和Dropbox，预计将使该公司在第一财季赢得企业客户方面受益。你可以在这里看到今天咤克斯排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表。</blockquote></p><p>However, Zoom Video continues to face significant competition from the likes of <b>Cisco</b>, Microsoft and Google Meet. This might have led to loss in small and medium business customers, which is likely to have hurt top-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Zoom Video继续面临来自以下公司的激烈竞争<b>思科</b>、微软和谷歌相遇。这可能会导致中小型企业客户的流失，从而可能会损害营收增长。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Key Q1 Highlights</h3>During the to-be-reported quarter, Zoom announced $100 million venture fund called Zoom Apps Fund, aimed at stimulating growth of Zoom’s ecosystem of Zoom Apps, integrations, developer platform and hardware.</p><p><blockquote><h3>第一季度主要亮点</h3>在即将报告的季度中，Zoom宣布了一项名为Zoom Apps Fund的1亿美元风险基金，旨在刺激Zoom的Zoom应用、集成、开发者平台和硬件生态系统的增长。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, during the quarter, Zoom and Formula 1 announced that they have entered a new extensive multi-year partnership across the upcoming 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship racing season and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在本季度，Zoom和一级方程式宣布，他们已在即将到来的2021年国际汽联一级方程式世界锦标赛赛季及以后建立了新的广泛的多年合作伙伴关系。</blockquote></p><p>Further, in February, Zoom announced the availability of Zoom Rooms that will help organizations safely re-enter the office and sustain an “everywhere workforce”.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在2月份，Zoom宣布推出Zoom Rooms，这将帮助组织安全地重新进入办公室，并维持“无处不在的员工”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom Video to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>Zoom Video将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom Video to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>Zoom Video将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Zacks</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-01 19:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications</b> is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 1.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>视频通信</b>定于6月1日公布2022财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>For the quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings between 95 cents and 97 cents per share. Total revenues are expected between $900 million and $905 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计本季度非GAAP每股收益在95美分至97美分之间。总收入预计在9亿美元至9.05亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stayed at 97 cents per share over the past 30 days. The company had reported earnings of 20 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>过去30天，Zacks对收益的一致预期保持在每股97美分。该公司报告去年同期每股收益为20美分。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $905.2 million, suggesting 175.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>收入的共识为9.052亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长175.8%。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc75f53073be8992ce4f8cf58d4ebd0a\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"264\"><span>Zoom Video Communications, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Quote</span></p><p><blockquote><h3>Zoom Video通信公司。价格和每股收益惊喜</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Zoom Video通信公司价格-每股收益-惊喜|Zoom Video通信公司报价</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Zoom’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 73.2%.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom的收益在过去四个季度都超过了Zacks的普遍预期，平均意外率为73.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看这个公告的进展如何。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Factors to Watch</h3>Zoom’s fiscal first-quarter revenues are expected to have benefited from the coronavirus-induced work-from-home and online-learning wave despite the vaccination campaigns.</p><p><blockquote><h3>值得关注的因素</h3>尽管开展了疫苗接种活动，但Zoom第一财季的收入预计仍将受益于冠状病毒引发的在家工作和在线学习浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Notably, the company’s freemium business model helps it win customers rapidly, whom it can later convert into paying customers. Net dollar-expansion rate on a trailing twelve-month basis was more than 156% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021. The momentum is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司的免费增值商业模式帮助其快速赢得客户，然后可以将这些客户转化为付费客户。2021财年第四季度，过去12个月的美元净增长率超过156%。预计这一势头将在即将报告的季度持续下去。</blockquote></p><p>Further, the availability of Zoom For Home, which supports remote working for business professionals, has been a key catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>此外，支持商务专业人士远程工作的Zoom For Home的可用性是一个关键的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p>Additionally, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s strong partner base, that includes the likes of <b>Atlassian</b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a></b> and Dropbox, is expected to have benefited the company in winning enterprise customers in fiscal first quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这家Zacks排名第二（购买）的公司拥有强大的合作伙伴基础，其中包括<b>Atlassian</b>,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">服务现在</a></b>和Dropbox，预计将使该公司在第一财季赢得企业客户方面受益。你可以在这里看到今天咤克斯排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表。</blockquote></p><p>However, Zoom Video continues to face significant competition from the likes of <b>Cisco</b>, Microsoft and Google Meet. This might have led to loss in small and medium business customers, which is likely to have hurt top-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Zoom Video继续面临来自以下公司的激烈竞争<b>思科</b>、微软和谷歌相遇。这可能会导致中小型企业客户的流失，从而可能会损害营收增长。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Key Q1 Highlights</h3>During the to-be-reported quarter, Zoom announced $100 million venture fund called Zoom Apps Fund, aimed at stimulating growth of Zoom’s ecosystem of Zoom Apps, integrations, developer platform and hardware.</p><p><blockquote><h3>第一季度主要亮点</h3>在即将报告的季度中，Zoom宣布了一项名为Zoom Apps Fund的1亿美元风险基金，旨在刺激Zoom的Zoom应用、集成、开发者平台和硬件生态系统的增长。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, during the quarter, Zoom and Formula 1 announced that they have entered a new extensive multi-year partnership across the upcoming 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship racing season and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在本季度，Zoom和一级方程式宣布，他们已在即将到来的2021年国际汽联一级方程式世界锦标赛赛季及以后建立了新的广泛的多年合作伙伴关系。</blockquote></p><p>Further, in February, Zoom announced the availability of Zoom Rooms that will help organizations safely re-enter the office and sustain an “everywhere workforce”.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在2月份，Zoom宣布推出Zoom Rooms，这将帮助组织安全地重新进入办公室，并维持“无处不在的员工”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1619568/zoom-video-zm-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID05-txt-1619568\">Zacks</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1619568/zoom-video-zm-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID05-txt-1619568","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138889344","content_text":"Zoom Video Communications is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 1.For the quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings between 95 cents and 97 cents per share. Total revenues are expected between $900 million and $905 million.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stayed at 97 cents per share over the past 30 days. The company had reported earnings of 20 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $905.2 million, suggesting 175.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Price and EPS SurpriseZoom Video Communications, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Zoom Video Communications, Inc. QuoteZoom’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 73.2%.Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.Factors to WatchZoom’s fiscal first-quarter revenues are expected to have benefited from the coronavirus-induced work-from-home and online-learning wave despite the vaccination campaigns.Notably, the company’s freemium business model helps it win customers rapidly, whom it can later convert into paying customers. Net dollar-expansion rate on a trailing twelve-month basis was more than 156% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021. The momentum is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.Further, the availability of Zoom For Home, which supports remote working for business professionals, has been a key catalyst.Additionally, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s strong partner base, that includes the likes of Atlassian, ServiceNow and Dropbox, is expected to have benefited the company in winning enterprise customers in fiscal first quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.However, Zoom Video continues to face significant competition from the likes of Cisco, Microsoft and Google Meet. This might have led to loss in small and medium business customers, which is likely to have hurt top-line growth.Key Q1 HighlightsDuring the to-be-reported quarter, Zoom announced $100 million venture fund called Zoom Apps Fund, aimed at stimulating growth of Zoom’s ecosystem of Zoom Apps, integrations, developer platform and hardware.Moreover, during the quarter, Zoom and Formula 1 announced that they have entered a new extensive multi-year partnership across the upcoming 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship racing season and beyond.Further, in February, Zoom announced the availability of Zoom Rooms that will help organizations safely re-enter the office and sustain an “everywhere workforce”.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113017515,"gmtCreate":1622585043537,"gmtModify":1631891040125,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113017515","repostId":"2140249804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137729533,"gmtCreate":1622396472722,"gmtModify":1631891040124,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137729533","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138742186,"gmtCreate":1621980001845,"gmtModify":1631891040123,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138742186","repostId":"2138193407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133799857,"gmtCreate":1621807900679,"gmtModify":1631891040127,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573205405294282","authorIdStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573201524091165\">@Alanleejw</a>: Ok","listText":"Cool//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573201524091165\">@Alanleejw</a>: Ok","text":"Cool//@Alanleejw: Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133799857","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":133194182,"gmtCreate":1621725304746,"gmtModify":1631893187724,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133194182","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113080053,"gmtCreate":1622585087772,"gmtModify":1631891040089,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113080053","repostId":"2138889344","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138889344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546894,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2138889344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zoom Video to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>Zoom Video将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138889344","media":"Zacks","summary":"Zoom Video Communications is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 1.For the quarte","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications</b> is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 1.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>视频通信</b>定于6月1日公布2022财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>For the quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings between 95 cents and 97 cents per share. Total revenues are expected between $900 million and $905 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计本季度非GAAP每股收益在95美分至97美分之间。总收入预计在9亿美元至9.05亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stayed at 97 cents per share over the past 30 days. The company had reported earnings of 20 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>过去30天，Zacks对收益的一致预期保持在每股97美分。该公司报告去年同期每股收益为20美分。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $905.2 million, suggesting 175.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>收入的共识为9.052亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长175.8%。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc75f53073be8992ce4f8cf58d4ebd0a\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"264\"><span>Zoom Video Communications, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Quote</span></p><p><blockquote><h3>Zoom Video通信公司。价格和每股收益惊喜</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Zoom Video通信公司价格-每股收益-惊喜|Zoom Video通信公司报价</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Zoom’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 73.2%.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom的收益在过去四个季度都超过了Zacks的普遍预期，平均意外率为73.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看这个公告的进展如何。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Factors to Watch</h3>Zoom’s fiscal first-quarter revenues are expected to have benefited from the coronavirus-induced work-from-home and online-learning wave despite the vaccination campaigns.</p><p><blockquote><h3>值得关注的因素</h3>尽管开展了疫苗接种活动，但Zoom第一财季的收入预计仍将受益于冠状病毒引发的在家工作和在线学习浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Notably, the company’s freemium business model helps it win customers rapidly, whom it can later convert into paying customers. Net dollar-expansion rate on a trailing twelve-month basis was more than 156% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021. The momentum is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司的免费增值商业模式帮助其快速赢得客户，然后可以将这些客户转化为付费客户。2021财年第四季度，过去12个月的美元净增长率超过156%。预计这一势头将在即将报告的季度持续下去。</blockquote></p><p>Further, the availability of Zoom For Home, which supports remote working for business professionals, has been a key catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>此外，支持商务专业人士远程工作的Zoom For Home的可用性是一个关键的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p>Additionally, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s strong partner base, that includes the likes of <b>Atlassian</b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a></b> and Dropbox, is expected to have benefited the company in winning enterprise customers in fiscal first quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这家Zacks排名第二（购买）的公司拥有强大的合作伙伴基础，其中包括<b>Atlassian</b>,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">服务现在</a></b>和Dropbox，预计将使该公司在第一财季赢得企业客户方面受益。你可以在这里看到今天咤克斯排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表。</blockquote></p><p>However, Zoom Video continues to face significant competition from the likes of <b>Cisco</b>, Microsoft and Google Meet. This might have led to loss in small and medium business customers, which is likely to have hurt top-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Zoom Video继续面临来自以下公司的激烈竞争<b>思科</b>、微软和谷歌相遇。这可能会导致中小型企业客户的流失，从而可能会损害营收增长。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Key Q1 Highlights</h3>During the to-be-reported quarter, Zoom announced $100 million venture fund called Zoom Apps Fund, aimed at stimulating growth of Zoom’s ecosystem of Zoom Apps, integrations, developer platform and hardware.</p><p><blockquote><h3>第一季度主要亮点</h3>在即将报告的季度中，Zoom宣布了一项名为Zoom Apps Fund的1亿美元风险基金，旨在刺激Zoom的Zoom应用、集成、开发者平台和硬件生态系统的增长。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, during the quarter, Zoom and Formula 1 announced that they have entered a new extensive multi-year partnership across the upcoming 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship racing season and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在本季度，Zoom和一级方程式宣布，他们已在即将到来的2021年国际汽联一级方程式世界锦标赛赛季及以后建立了新的广泛的多年合作伙伴关系。</blockquote></p><p>Further, in February, Zoom announced the availability of Zoom Rooms that will help organizations safely re-enter the office and sustain an “everywhere workforce”.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在2月份，Zoom宣布推出Zoom Rooms，这将帮助组织安全地重新进入办公室，并维持“无处不在的员工”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom Video to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>Zoom Video将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom Video to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?<blockquote>Zoom Video将报告第一季度收益：前景如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Zacks</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-01 19:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications</b> is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 1.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>视频通信</b>定于6月1日公布2022财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>For the quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings between 95 cents and 97 cents per share. Total revenues are expected between $900 million and $905 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计本季度非GAAP每股收益在95美分至97美分之间。总收入预计在9亿美元至9.05亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stayed at 97 cents per share over the past 30 days. The company had reported earnings of 20 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>过去30天，Zacks对收益的一致预期保持在每股97美分。该公司报告去年同期每股收益为20美分。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $905.2 million, suggesting 175.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>收入的共识为9.052亿美元，比去年同期报告的数字增长175.8%。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc75f53073be8992ce4f8cf58d4ebd0a\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"264\"><span>Zoom Video Communications, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Quote</span></p><p><blockquote><h3>Zoom Video通信公司。价格和每股收益惊喜</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Zoom Video通信公司价格-每股收益-惊喜|Zoom Video通信公司报价</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Zoom’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 73.2%.</p><p><blockquote>Zoom的收益在过去四个季度都超过了Zacks的普遍预期，平均意外率为73.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.</p><p><blockquote>让我们看看这个公告的进展如何。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Factors to Watch</h3>Zoom’s fiscal first-quarter revenues are expected to have benefited from the coronavirus-induced work-from-home and online-learning wave despite the vaccination campaigns.</p><p><blockquote><h3>值得关注的因素</h3>尽管开展了疫苗接种活动，但Zoom第一财季的收入预计仍将受益于冠状病毒引发的在家工作和在线学习浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Notably, the company’s freemium business model helps it win customers rapidly, whom it can later convert into paying customers. Net dollar-expansion rate on a trailing twelve-month basis was more than 156% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021. The momentum is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司的免费增值商业模式帮助其快速赢得客户，然后可以将这些客户转化为付费客户。2021财年第四季度，过去12个月的美元净增长率超过156%。预计这一势头将在即将报告的季度持续下去。</blockquote></p><p>Further, the availability of Zoom For Home, which supports remote working for business professionals, has been a key catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>此外，支持商务专业人士远程工作的Zoom For Home的可用性是一个关键的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p>Additionally, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s strong partner base, that includes the likes of <b>Atlassian</b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a></b> and Dropbox, is expected to have benefited the company in winning enterprise customers in fiscal first quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这家Zacks排名第二（购买）的公司拥有强大的合作伙伴基础，其中包括<b>Atlassian</b>,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">服务现在</a></b>和Dropbox，预计将使该公司在第一财季赢得企业客户方面受益。你可以在这里看到今天咤克斯排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表。</blockquote></p><p>However, Zoom Video continues to face significant competition from the likes of <b>Cisco</b>, Microsoft and Google Meet. This might have led to loss in small and medium business customers, which is likely to have hurt top-line growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Zoom Video继续面临来自以下公司的激烈竞争<b>思科</b>、微软和谷歌相遇。这可能会导致中小型企业客户的流失，从而可能会损害营收增长。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Key Q1 Highlights</h3>During the to-be-reported quarter, Zoom announced $100 million venture fund called Zoom Apps Fund, aimed at stimulating growth of Zoom’s ecosystem of Zoom Apps, integrations, developer platform and hardware.</p><p><blockquote><h3>第一季度主要亮点</h3>在即将报告的季度中，Zoom宣布了一项名为Zoom Apps Fund的1亿美元风险基金，旨在刺激Zoom的Zoom应用、集成、开发者平台和硬件生态系统的增长。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, during the quarter, Zoom and Formula 1 announced that they have entered a new extensive multi-year partnership across the upcoming 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship racing season and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在本季度，Zoom和一级方程式宣布，他们已在即将到来的2021年国际汽联一级方程式世界锦标赛赛季及以后建立了新的广泛的多年合作伙伴关系。</blockquote></p><p>Further, in February, Zoom announced the availability of Zoom Rooms that will help organizations safely re-enter the office and sustain an “everywhere workforce”.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在2月份，Zoom宣布推出Zoom Rooms，这将帮助组织安全地重新进入办公室，并维持“无处不在的员工”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1619568/zoom-video-zm-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID05-txt-1619568\">Zacks</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1619568/zoom-video-zm-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID05-txt-1619568","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138889344","content_text":"Zoom Video Communications is set to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 1.For the quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings between 95 cents and 97 cents per share. Total revenues are expected between $900 million and $905 million.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stayed at 97 cents per share over the past 30 days. The company had reported earnings of 20 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $905.2 million, suggesting 175.8% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Price and EPS SurpriseZoom Video Communications, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Zoom Video Communications, Inc. QuoteZoom’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 73.2%.Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.Factors to WatchZoom’s fiscal first-quarter revenues are expected to have benefited from the coronavirus-induced work-from-home and online-learning wave despite the vaccination campaigns.Notably, the company’s freemium business model helps it win customers rapidly, whom it can later convert into paying customers. Net dollar-expansion rate on a trailing twelve-month basis was more than 156% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021. The momentum is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.Further, the availability of Zoom For Home, which supports remote working for business professionals, has been a key catalyst.Additionally, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s strong partner base, that includes the likes of Atlassian, ServiceNow and Dropbox, is expected to have benefited the company in winning enterprise customers in fiscal first quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.However, Zoom Video continues to face significant competition from the likes of Cisco, Microsoft and Google Meet. This might have led to loss in small and medium business customers, which is likely to have hurt top-line growth.Key Q1 HighlightsDuring the to-be-reported quarter, Zoom announced $100 million venture fund called Zoom Apps Fund, aimed at stimulating growth of Zoom’s ecosystem of Zoom Apps, integrations, developer platform and hardware.Moreover, during the quarter, Zoom and Formula 1 announced that they have entered a new extensive multi-year partnership across the upcoming 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship racing season and beyond.Further, in February, Zoom announced the availability of Zoom Rooms that will help organizations safely re-enter the office and sustain an “everywhere workforce”.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806387949,"gmtCreate":1627633050681,"gmtModify":1631889357210,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>time to load up more?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>time to load up more?","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$time to load up more?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806387949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118463168,"gmtCreate":1622754735354,"gmtModify":1631891040084,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seemsgoodtime","listText":"Seemsgoodtime","text":"Seemsgoodtime","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118463168","repostId":"2140247164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196362415,"gmtCreate":1621026982037,"gmtModify":1631893187725,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196362415","repostId":"2135710626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113017515,"gmtCreate":1622585043537,"gmtModify":1631891040125,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113017515","repostId":"2140249804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138742186,"gmtCreate":1621980001845,"gmtModify":1631891040123,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138742186","repostId":"2138193407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186403308,"gmtCreate":1623515676104,"gmtModify":1631889357272,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186403308","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188648173,"gmtCreate":1623436174792,"gmtModify":1631889357275,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188648173","repostId":"1114257617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114257617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623425495,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114257617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114257617","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on","content":"<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带！通货膨胀来了！”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在整个美国飙升”）的有害影响，促使即使是无聊的卖方研究也变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通胀即将爆发”，“让全球经济坐在一颗定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚吐遍了美联储的“暂时”论点”）现在公开声称<i>美联储错了</i>美国正面临前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通胀时期，德国央行甚至警告<i>“政策制定者将面临自上世纪80年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</i></blockquote></p><p> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>但所有这些都没有吓到美联储承认——或相信——通胀只不过是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯...更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p><p><blockquote><b>出示附件A</b>：两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登令人兴奋的财富将结束，很快他们将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起6个月）在3个主要支出类别：住宅、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p><p><blockquote>降幅如此之大，相当于购买家电意向的最大单月降幅...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and homes...</p><p><blockquote>...还有家...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p><p><blockquote>这证实了我们之前提到的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜哪一个最终会很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p><p><blockquote>快进到今天我们刚刚得到<b>证据B：六月密歇根情绪调查。</b></blockquote></p><p> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但未来1年和5-10年的通胀预期均略有下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p><p><blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷(Richard Curtin)所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家庭耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创纪录以来的最糟糕水平。</blockquote></p><p> And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如科廷补充的那样，“<b>这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和房屋的整体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。</b>对于收入排名前三分之一的人来说，这些下降尤其严重，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote></p><p> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p><p><blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“不良购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于价格飙升，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p><p><blockquote>不管是好是坏，<b>尖叫的不仅是滞胀，还有永久上涨的价格，</b>正如柯廷所阐述的：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i>   <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>  The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p><p><blockquote><i>...在疫情的出现中，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低。</i><i><b>如果退出时间很长，人们接受疫情导致的价格上涨，使得通胀心理更有可能站稳脚跟。</b></i>问题是：刺激迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经被固定得更高，祝你好运，试图拉低价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>  Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p><p><blockquote><i>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然是必要的，但随之而来的通胀上升将造成分配不均的影响。六月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会浇灭任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。</i>哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主们非常清楚，延长失业救济金的繁荣将于9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌入劳动力市场，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主不提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯...只要等到10月份，一切都会逆转，山姆大叔不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p><p><blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于满足需求并大幅推高价格（而不是大幅上涨）的生产商和零售商将面临严峻的选择：要么直接拉低价格，要么销售更少的商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote></p><p> One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的：<b>从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会更加丑陋。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans<blockquote>宿醉来了：爆炸性通货膨胀导致房屋和汽车购买计划创纪录崩溃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 23:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，我们一直在警告价格飙升对企业（“系好安全带！通货膨胀来了！”）和消费者（“这不是暂时的”：对恶性通货膨胀的担忧正在整个美国飙升”）的有害影响，促使即使是无聊的卖方研究也变得（超级）令人兴奋，德意志银行（本周警告称“通胀即将爆发”，“让全球经济坐在一颗定时炸弹上”）和美国银行（“刚刚吐遍了美联储的“暂时”论点”）现在公开声称<i>美联储错了</i>美国正面临前所未有的高得多的非暂时性通胀时期，德国央行甚至警告<i>“政策制定者将面临自上世纪80年代沃尔克/里根时期以来最具挑战性的几年。”</i></blockquote></p><p> But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>但所有这些都没有吓到美联储承认——或相信——通胀只不过是暂时的。也许就这一次，美联储说得有道理，因为在其他条件相同的情况下，我们指的是工资没有上涨，解决物价上涨的最佳方法是，嗯...更高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p><p><blockquote><b>出示附件A</b>：两周前，我们观察到，预计拜登令人兴奋的财富将结束，很快他们将不得不再次量入为出，根据世界大型企业联合会的衡量，美国人的购买意愿（从今天起6个月）在3个主要支出类别：住宅、汽车和主要家用电器。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p><p><blockquote>降幅如此之大，相当于购买家电意向的最大单月降幅...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and homes...</p><p><blockquote>...还有家...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p><p><blockquote>这证实了我们之前提到的，即购房者信心崩溃（由于创纪录的房价）和房屋建筑商信心飙升（也由于创纪录的房价）之间的创纪录差异。猜猜哪一个最终会很重要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p><p><blockquote>快进到今天我们刚刚得到<b>证据B：六月密歇根情绪调查。</b></blockquote></p><p> While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p><p><blockquote>虽然这里有一些好消息，但未来1年和5-10年的通胀预期均略有下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p><p><blockquote>...我们发现更令人担忧的是首席经济学家理查德·科廷(Richard Curtin)所说的，即由于“通胀上升仍然是消费者最关心的问题”，房屋、汽车和家庭耐用品市场价格的自发参考跌至自1974年11月创纪录以来的最糟糕水平。</blockquote></p><p> And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如科廷补充的那样，“<b>这些对市场价格的不利看法将汽车和房屋的整体购买态度降至1982年以来的最低点。</b>对于收入排名前三分之一的人来说，这些下降尤其严重，他们占零售额的一半以上。”</blockquote></p><p> This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p><p><blockquote>这可以从下图中看出，该图显示了由于房屋、耐用品和汽车价格高企而导致的“不良购买条件”的全面记录。换句话说，由于价格飙升，美国正在进行买家罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p><p><blockquote>不管是好是坏，<b>尖叫的不仅是滞胀，还有永久上涨的价格，</b>正如柯廷所阐述的：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i>   <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>  The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p><p><blockquote><i>...在疫情的出现中，由于被压抑的需求和创纪录的储蓄以及就业和收入前景的改善，消费者对价格的敏感度暂时降低。</i><i><b>如果退出时间很长，人们接受疫情导致的价格上涨，使得通胀心理更有可能站稳脚跟。</b></i>问题是：刺激迟早会结束，但到那时价格已经被固定得更高，祝你好运，试图拉低价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>  Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p><p><blockquote><i>虽然扩张性货币和财政政策仍然是必要的，但随之而来的通胀上升将造成分配不均的影响。六月份，老年人和低收入家庭已经注意到了这些影响。美联储政策语言的转变可能会浇灭任何初期的通胀心理，这对消费者来说并不奇怪，因为三分之二的人已经预计未来一年利率会上升。</i>哦，对于那些说工资上涨可能是永久性的人来说，我们有一些坏消息：雇主们非常清楚，延长失业救济金的繁荣将于9月份结束，届时数百万目前失业的工人将涌入劳动力市场，导致工资大幅下降，这就是为什么大多数潜在雇主不提高基本工资，而是提供一次性奖金，顾名思义，这是一次性的。至于更高的工资压力，嗯...只要等到10月份，一切都会逆转，山姆大叔不再是美国私营部门薪酬更高的竞争对手，工资也会暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p><p><blockquote>这对经济意味着什么？好吧，所有那些习惯于满足需求并大幅推高价格（而不是大幅上涨）的生产商和零售商将面临严峻的选择：要么直接拉低价格，要么销售更少的商品和服务。或者只是等待下一次救助。</blockquote></p><p> One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的：<b>从今天起六个月后，美国经济将会更加丑陋。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114257617","content_text":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"\nBut none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.\nPresenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.\n\nThe drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...\n\n... and homes...\n\nThis confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.\n\nFast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.\nWhile there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...\n\n... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.\nAnd as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"\nThis can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.\n\nThis, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:\n\n... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.\nThe acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.\n\nThe problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.\n\nWhile expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.\n\nOh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.\nWhat does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.\nOne thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137729533,"gmtCreate":1622396472722,"gmtModify":1631891040124,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137729533","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114442133,"gmtCreate":1623100609622,"gmtModify":1631889357367,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok cool","listText":"Ok cool","text":"Ok cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114442133","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115267782,"gmtCreate":1623014337646,"gmtModify":1631891040076,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115267782","repostId":"1102972710","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125551076,"gmtCreate":1624681658695,"gmtModify":1631889357231,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125551076","repostId":"1198714523","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183570906,"gmtCreate":1623337848105,"gmtModify":1631889357346,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183570906","repostId":"1128810191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115157024,"gmtCreate":1622962329068,"gmtModify":1631891040079,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115157024","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并且可能会让ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍连续下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并且可能会让ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍连续下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133799857,"gmtCreate":1621807900679,"gmtModify":1631891040127,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573201524091165\">@Alanleejw</a>: Ok","listText":"Cool//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573201524091165\">@Alanleejw</a>: Ok","text":"Cool//@Alanleejw: Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133799857","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188087451,"gmtCreate":1623416509273,"gmtModify":1631889357288,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188087451","repostId":"1131879907","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188002643,"gmtCreate":1623414811282,"gmtModify":1631889357310,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188002643","repostId":"1147816654","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147816654","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623411742,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147816654?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147816654","media":"The Street","summary":"In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop","content":"<p>  <b>In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.</b>  The Reddit army is back in full force!</p><p><blockquote><b>在上次meme股票上涨中，继游戏驿站和AMC之后，贵金属成为Reddit交易者的目标。</b>Reddit大军全面回归！</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.</p><p><blockquote>在网站上WallStreetBets论坛成员寻求做空大型对冲基金的推动下，Meme股票在2021年初首次崭露头角。游戏驿站（GME）是首选股票，其股价从元旦的每股18美元左右上涨至最高点的近500美元。很快，AMC院线(AMC)、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)、Express(EXPR)和黑莓(BB)等公司也加入了进来。经过短暂的中断后，该集团重新将AMC作为他们的首选股票。</blockquote></p><p> One stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was the<b>iShares Silver Trust (SLV)</b>. It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>这群人追逐的一只股票根本不是股票。这是<b>iShares白银信托(SLV)</b>毫不奇怪，它始于Eddit的一篇帖子，一位交易员在帖子中辩称，贵金属价格多年来一直被大银行操纵，可能是下一次大挤压的理想目标。</blockquote></p><p> So they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.</p><p><blockquote>所以他们尝试了一下，并且成功了.......一天。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1d77c395486d36223fb07516c1b28c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"308\">Silver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.</p><p><blockquote>有消息称WallStreetBets人群将追捧白银，白银价格（以及SLV的价格）上涨了约10%，但涨势是短暂的。第二天股价回落至飙升前的水平，但仍未再次接近之前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> It turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，移动一只股票，比如AMC，和移动白银的价格是完全不同的两件事。虽然许多人一想到银就会想到珠宝和银器，但实际上，银的主要需求来自重工业。</blockquote></p><p> It's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars &amp; coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.</p><p><blockquote>它用于生产太阳能电池板、电子元件、保险丝、汽车和工业粘合剂。2020年，用于工业制造的Silverdemandin是珠宝市场的三倍多，银条和银币的两倍多，银器的15倍多。</blockquote></p><p> With that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球对白银的需求如此稳定，预计只会继续增长，因此很难大幅调整其价格（尤其是达到Reddit呼吁的每盎司1,000美元的价格目标）。老实说，我有点惊讶，仅靠模因股票投机，它就能够在一天内产生10%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站等股票规模足够小（从技术上讲，它们可能不再被视为“小”），只要有足够的交易量，它们就可以在相当短的时间内大幅上涨。此外，Reddit交易员瞄准的股票已经有很高的空头兴趣，这意味着任何大规模的购买活动都可能因人们为了止血而进行空头回补而加剧。</blockquote></p><p> That's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.</p><p><blockquote>对于白银来说，这将很难实现。我的猜测是，WallStreetBets集团再也不会向白银发起攻击了。它似乎满足于寻找新的目标，如三叶草（CLOV），试图向月球推进。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 19:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.</b>  The Reddit army is back in full force!</p><p><blockquote><b>在上次meme股票上涨中，继游戏驿站和AMC之后，贵金属成为Reddit交易者的目标。</b>Reddit大军全面回归！</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.</p><p><blockquote>在网站上WallStreetBets论坛成员寻求做空大型对冲基金的推动下，Meme股票在2021年初首次崭露头角。游戏驿站（GME）是首选股票，其股价从元旦的每股18美元左右上涨至最高点的近500美元。很快，AMC院线(AMC)、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)、Express(EXPR)和黑莓(BB)等公司也加入了进来。经过短暂的中断后，该集团重新将AMC作为他们的首选股票。</blockquote></p><p> One stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was the<b>iShares Silver Trust (SLV)</b>. It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>这群人追逐的一只股票根本不是股票。这是<b>iShares白银信托(SLV)</b>毫不奇怪，它始于Eddit的一篇帖子，一位交易员在帖子中辩称，贵金属价格多年来一直被大银行操纵，可能是下一次大挤压的理想目标。</blockquote></p><p> So they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.</p><p><blockquote>所以他们尝试了一下，并且成功了.......一天。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1d77c395486d36223fb07516c1b28c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"308\">Silver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.</p><p><blockquote>有消息称WallStreetBets人群将追捧白银，白银价格（以及SLV的价格）上涨了约10%，但涨势是短暂的。第二天股价回落至飙升前的水平，但仍未再次接近之前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> It turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，移动一只股票，比如AMC，和移动白银的价格是完全不同的两件事。虽然许多人一想到银就会想到珠宝和银器，但实际上，银的主要需求来自重工业。</blockquote></p><p> It's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars &amp; coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.</p><p><blockquote>它用于生产太阳能电池板、电子元件、保险丝、汽车和工业粘合剂。2020年，用于工业制造的Silverdemandin是珠宝市场的三倍多，银条和银币的两倍多，银器的15倍多。</blockquote></p><p> With that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球对白银的需求如此稳定，预计只会继续增长，因此很难大幅调整其价格（尤其是达到Reddit呼吁的每盎司1,000美元的价格目标）。老实说，我有点惊讶，仅靠模因股票投机，它就能够在一天内产生10%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站等股票规模足够小（从技术上讲，它们可能不再被视为“小”），只要有足够的交易量，它们就可以在相当短的时间内大幅上涨。此外，Reddit交易员瞄准的股票已经有很高的空头兴趣，这意味着任何大规模的购买活动都可能因人们为了止血而进行空头回补而加剧。</blockquote></p><p> That's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.</p><p><blockquote>对于白银来说，这将很难实现。我的猜测是，WallStreetBets集团再也不会向白银发起攻击了。它似乎满足于寻找新的目标，如三叶草（CLOV），试图向月球推进。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/will-wallstreetbets-crowd-come-after-silver\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/will-wallstreetbets-crowd-come-after-silver","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147816654","content_text":"In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.\n\nThe Reddit army is back in full force!\nMeme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.\nOne stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was theiShares Silver Trust (SLV). It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.\nSo they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.\nSilver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.\nIt turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.\nIt's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars & coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.\nWith that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.\nStocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.\nThat's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102212757,"gmtCreate":1620217476179,"gmtModify":1631893187728,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102212757","repostId":"2133528918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181552677,"gmtCreate":1623403337099,"gmtModify":1631889357322,"author":{"id":"3573205405294282","authorId":"3573205405294282","name":"li1986","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3fac0e4b817f045ba87890b5ab650","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573205405294282","idStr":"3573205405294282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"france and mbappe!!","listText":"france and mbappe!!","text":"france and mbappe!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181552677","repostId":"181584887","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":181584887,"gmtCreate":1623401994645,"gmtModify":1623404570813,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502767768442965","idStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"端午节福利：欧洲杯明天开幕！有些看点？","htmlText":"北京时间明天（6月12日）凌晨，第16届欧洲杯将正式开赛。C罗、姆巴佩、德布劳内、凯恩、诺伊尔……各路巨星同场竞技，豪门球队神仙打架，全欧11座城市共同举办，看点满满！ 快收好这份观赛指南，这个夏天，一起享受足球盛宴↓↓↓ 入门篇 仅适用于对足球完全不了解的朋友 “欧洲杯能看到梅西吗？” 如果你的一位爱好足球的朋友听到了这样的问题，内心可能就如上图表情包所示……要想愉快地聊欧洲杯，可以先学学这些小知识，避免出现常识性错误。 进阶篇 本届欧洲杯，哪个小组被称为“死亡之组”？有哪些精彩看点？熬夜看球又该注意些什么？且听小编为你一一道来。 （以上内容转自：央视新闻） 足球运动是人类最伟大、最精彩的运动之一，巧的是这次开幕式正好赶上咱们的端午节，可谓是球迷们的福利啦~ 趁着这些天不开盘，虎友们也可以好好地放松一下！ 啤酒、爆米花、花生米燥起来！🤣 …… 最后，大家聊一聊： 你是否喜欢足球运动？看好哪些球队or球星？ 精彩留言用户可获得888社区积分噢！ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>","listText":"北京时间明天（6月12日）凌晨，第16届欧洲杯将正式开赛。C罗、姆巴佩、德布劳内、凯恩、诺伊尔……各路巨星同场竞技，豪门球队神仙打架，全欧11座城市共同举办，看点满满！ 快收好这份观赛指南，这个夏天，一起享受足球盛宴↓↓↓ 入门篇 仅适用于对足球完全不了解的朋友 “欧洲杯能看到梅西吗？” 如果你的一位爱好足球的朋友听到了这样的问题，内心可能就如上图表情包所示……要想愉快地聊欧洲杯，可以先学学这些小知识，避免出现常识性错误。 进阶篇 本届欧洲杯，哪个小组被称为“死亡之组”？有哪些精彩看点？熬夜看球又该注意些什么？且听小编为你一一道来。 （以上内容转自：央视新闻） 足球运动是人类最伟大、最精彩的运动之一，巧的是这次开幕式正好赶上咱们的端午节，可谓是球迷们的福利啦~ 趁着这些天不开盘，虎友们也可以好好地放松一下！ 啤酒、爆米花、花生米燥起来！🤣 …… 最后，大家聊一聊： 你是否喜欢足球运动？看好哪些球队or球星？ 精彩留言用户可获得888社区积分噢！ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>","text":"北京时间明天（6月12日）凌晨，第16届欧洲杯将正式开赛。C罗、姆巴佩、德布劳内、凯恩、诺伊尔……各路巨星同场竞技，豪门球队神仙打架，全欧11座城市共同举办，看点满满！ 快收好这份观赛指南，这个夏天，一起享受足球盛宴↓↓↓ 入门篇 仅适用于对足球完全不了解的朋友 “欧洲杯能看到梅西吗？” 如果你的一位爱好足球的朋友听到了这样的问题，内心可能就如上图表情包所示……要想愉快地聊欧洲杯，可以先学学这些小知识，避免出现常识性错误。 进阶篇 本届欧洲杯，哪个小组被称为“死亡之组”？有哪些精彩看点？熬夜看球又该注意些什么？且听小编为你一一道来。 （以上内容转自：央视新闻） 足球运动是人类最伟大、最精彩的运动之一，巧的是这次开幕式正好赶上咱们的端午节，可谓是球迷们的福利啦~ 趁着这些天不开盘，虎友们也可以好好地放松一下！ 啤酒、爆米花、花生米燥起来！🤣 …… 最后，大家聊一聊： 你是否喜欢足球运动？看好哪些球队or球星？ 精彩留言用户可获得888社区积分噢！ $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b9eaa22e8b15bc372b5519f69295e3","width":"1080","height":"3336"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b408705efb6828321245d11440099f6a","width":"1080","height":"895"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6968eee982e196011498e7f1789856","width":"1080","height":"2500"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181584887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":13,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}