li1986
2021-06-03
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DoorDash: Best Case Scenario, This Is Fairly Priced Now<blockquote>DoorDash：最好的情况，现在价格合理</blockquote>
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Worst case, the stock is very expensive for what it is.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf069f93e17a1c17f3903683376a3070\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对DoorDash的投资会带来许多问题，例如，一旦经济重新开放，DoorDash的稳定收入增长率是多少。</li><li>投资者被要求支付44倍的远期贡献利润——这是一个丰厚的价格标签。</li><li>在最好的情况下，这项投资已经定价合理。最坏的情况是，该股票就其本身而言非常昂贵。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)is a fast-growing food delivery platform. Yet, it's very difficult to find its sustainable revenue growth rate for the coming twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>DoorDash（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DASH）是一个快速增长的食品配送平台。然而，很难找到未来12个月的可持续收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, given that the stock is already valued at close to 44x forward contribution profits, I don't see this investment as particularly compelling.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，鉴于该股的估值已经接近44倍的远期贡献利润，我认为这项投资并不特别引人注目。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, even if DoorDash's growth rates start to stabilize, I am unsure of whether this business has enough pricing power to be rewarded with such a premium valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，即使DoorDash的增长率开始稳定，我也不确定这项业务是否有足够的定价权来获得如此溢价的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates Aren't the Full Story</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率并不是全部</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fa2e884d0a9f8e36e9404097228d05\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Q1 2021 Investor Letter</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021年第一季度投资者信</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the graph above describes one story. The story that bulls are holding on to. Specifically, bulls make the case that DoorDash is evidently growing at such a fast clip with Q1 2021 reporting 198% y/y revenue growth that investors should be willing to pay up for these sort of revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，上图描述了一个故事。多头坚持的故事。具体来说，看多者认为，DoorDash的增长速度显然如此之快，2021年第一季度的收入同比增长198%，投资者应该愿意为这种收入增长率买单。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, bears contend that if we consider DoorDash's guidance for the quarter ahead it's pointing towards Marketplace GOV of $9.9 billion at the high end, which equates to roughly 61% y/y growth for Marketplace GOV.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，看空者认为，如果我们考虑DoorDash对未来季度的指引，它指向Marketplace GOV的高端目标为99亿美元，这相当于Marketplace GOV的同比增长约61%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Digging Into the Positive and Negatives of DoorDash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>挖掘DoorDash的优点和缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> Presently we are faced with a slight problem.</p><p><blockquote>目前我们面临一个小问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the bullish thesis to work out positively, investors need to be confident as to what DoorDash's sustainable revenue growth rates are going to be as we move over the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>为了使看涨论点取得积极成果，投资者需要对未来12个月DoorDash的可持续收入增长率充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Because for a high growth stock to guide towards decelerating revenue growth rates, that's always going to cause investor anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>因为对于一只高增长股票来说，引导收入增长率减速总是会引起投资者的焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Although, it's inevitable that at <i>some point</i> DoorDash's revenue growth rates are bound to<i>start</i> to decelerate. In fact, it's fairly obvious that DoorDash wasn't going to continue growing its revenues at north of 170% y/y for a prolonged period of time.</p><p><blockquote>虽然，不可避免的是<i>某一点</i>DoorDash的收入增长率必然会<i>开始</i>减速。事实上，很明显，DoorDash的收入不会在很长一段时间内继续以超过170%的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, the issue gets further complicated because the<i>pace</i>at which DoorDash is slowing growth is causing some questions to surface, such as, at what revenue growth rate will DoorDash stabilize?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这个问题变得更加复杂，因为<i>步伐</i>DoorDash的增长放缓引发了一些问题，例如，DoorDash的收入增长率将稳定在多少？</blockquote></p><p> If, for instance, DoorDash was able to somehow report more than 80% y/y revenue growth rates for its quarter ending June 2021, this would largely put to the rest of the overarching concern investors have that as the economy reopens, that the demand for its platform is slowing demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果DoorDash能够以某种方式报告截至2021年6月的季度收入同比增长率超过80%，这将在很大程度上解决投资者对经济重新开放的其他首要担忧，即对其平台的需求正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, if DoorDash could indeed grow its revenues at 80% y/y, this would demonstrate to investors that DoorDash's business is not maturing and that it has a leading position in a rapidly growing market and that investors are justified in paying a very large multiple for this high growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果DoorDash的收入确实能够同比增长80%，这将向投资者表明DoorDash的业务尚未成熟，并且它在快速增长的市场中处于领先地位，投资者有理由支付非常高的价格这只高增长股票的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> Having said all this, even if DoorDash were to somehow indeed report 80% y/y revenue growth for its upcoming Q2 2021 period, bears would be right to at least<i>tentatively</i>make the argument that, during Q1 2021, DoorDash's revenue growth rates were close to 200%, whereas 90 days later its growth rates have slowed down by more than 100% from one quarter to the next.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，即使DoorDash确实报告即将到来的2021年第二季度收入同比增长80%，看空者至少是正确的<i>暂时地</i>可以说，在2021年第一季度，DoorDash的收入增长率接近200%，而90天后，其增长率从一个季度到下一个季度放缓了100%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Please note, I'm not comparing sequential growth rates between Q1 and Q2 2021, but y/y growth rates. Consequently, I'm declaring that DoorDash's growth rates are unpredictable.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，我不是在比较Q1和Q2 2021年的环比增长率，而是同比增长率。因此，我宣布DoorDash的增长率是不可预测的。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the case remains, that as DoorDash comes up against those particularly challenging comps, the most pressing of which being Q3 2021. Investors are going to be tested on their ultimate conviction as to whether DoorDash has enough of a moat around its operation, or not. And, if DoorDash can deliver more value to Dashers than other food delivery companies to their own merchants, or not.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，DoorDash仍然面临着那些特别具有挑战性的竞争，其中最紧迫的是2021年第三季度。投资者的最终信念将受到考验，即DoorDash的运营是否有足够的护城河。而且，DoorDash是否能为Dashers提供比其他食品配送公司为自己的商家提供更多的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation -- Difficult to Find Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——难寻上行空间</b></blockquote></p><p> I know that DoorDash is not a ''bottom-line stock''. It's a story stock where the narrative is squared on it being a high-growth stock. However, our discussion allows us to momentarily focus on its EBITDA trend.</p><p><blockquote>我知道DoorDash不是一只“底线股票”。这是一只故事股票，其叙事与它是一只高增长股票相一致。然而，我们的讨论使我们能够暂时关注其EBITDA趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Q2 2021, DoorDash is guiding for $100 million of EBITDA. This is a 27% y/y increase with the same period a year ago. But when a company is largely expected to grow its top-line by somewhere around 60% and perhaps as much as 80% y/y in the quarter ahead, while its EBITDA is only being guided to grow for sub 30% y/y growth, this forces the question as to whether DoorDash has positive operating leverage or not?</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度，DoorDash预计EBITDA为1亿美元。与去年同期相比，同比增长27%。但是，当一家公司的营收预计将在未来一个季度同比增长60%左右，甚至可能高达80%，而其EBITDA仅被引导同比增长低于30%时，这就提出了DoorDash是否具有正运营杠杆的问题？</blockquote></p><p> Consider that DoorDash's guided $38 billion Marketplace GOV and let us further make the bullish argument that DoorDash's contribution margin reaches a high of 3% for 2021. This would imply that DoorDash's contribution profit for the year reaches $1.1 billion. In that case, DoorDash is valued at approximately 44x forward contribution profits.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下DoorDash指导的380亿美元Marketplace GOV，让我们进一步提出看涨论点，即DoorDash的贡献率在2021年将达到3%的高位。这意味着DoorDash今年的贡献利润将达到11亿美元。在这种情况下，DoorDash的估值约为远期贡献利润的44倍。</blockquote></p><p> For a company without tangible pricing power around its operations, and a rapidly decelerating top-line growth, I am struggling to find its upside potential here.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家在运营方面没有切实定价权且营收增长迅速放缓的公司来说，我很难在这里找到它的上升潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I have attempted to lay out a balanced argument of the puts and takes that investors should consider when it comes to DoorDash.</p><p><blockquote>我试图对投资者在谈到DoorDash时应该考虑的看跌期权和看涨期权提出一个平衡的论点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Bulls would be correct to argue that DoorDash is not looking to maximize its profits at this stage in the game</i>. For now, DoorDash will do whatever it can to reinvest its bottom line, in order to sustainably grow its top line and carve out market share.</p><p><blockquote><i>多头认为DoorDash在游戏的现阶段并不寻求利润最大化，这是正确的</i>目前，DoorDash将尽一切努力对其利润进行再投资，以可持续地增长其营收并开拓市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> However, given that its revenue growth rates are rapidly decelerating, we are only right to question whether DoorDash's reinvestment of its profit carries compelling ROI?</p><p><blockquote>然而，鉴于其收入增长率正在迅速减速，我们质疑DoorDash的利润再投资是否会带来令人信服的投资回报率是正确的？</blockquote></p><p> I declare that these questions are very difficult to correctly answer so I will be looking elsewhere to deploy my own capital. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>我声明这些问题很难正确回答，所以我将寻找其他地方来部署我自己的资本。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DoorDash: Best Case Scenario, This Is Fairly Priced Now<blockquote>DoorDash：最好的情况，现在价格合理</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoorDash: Best Case Scenario, This Is Fairly Priced Now<blockquote>DoorDash：最好的情况，现在价格合理</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 22:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>An investment in DoorDash brings up many questions, such as, what's DoorDash's stable revenue growth rate once the economy reopens.</li> <li>Investors are being asked to pay up 44x forward contribution profits - a rich price tag.</li> <li>In the best case, this investment is already fairly priced. Worst case, the stock is very expensive for what it is.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf069f93e17a1c17f3903683376a3070\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对DoorDash的投资会带来许多问题，例如，一旦经济重新开放，DoorDash的稳定收入增长率是多少。</li><li>投资者被要求支付44倍的远期贡献利润——这是一个丰厚的价格标签。</li><li>在最好的情况下，这项投资已经定价合理。最坏的情况是，该股票就其本身而言非常昂贵。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)is a fast-growing food delivery platform. Yet, it's very difficult to find its sustainable revenue growth rate for the coming twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>DoorDash（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DASH）是一个快速增长的食品配送平台。然而，很难找到未来12个月的可持续收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, given that the stock is already valued at close to 44x forward contribution profits, I don't see this investment as particularly compelling.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，鉴于该股的估值已经接近44倍的远期贡献利润，我认为这项投资并不特别引人注目。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, even if DoorDash's growth rates start to stabilize, I am unsure of whether this business has enough pricing power to be rewarded with such a premium valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，即使DoorDash的增长率开始稳定，我也不确定这项业务是否有足够的定价权来获得如此溢价的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates Aren't the Full Story</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率并不是全部</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fa2e884d0a9f8e36e9404097228d05\" tg-width=\"413\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Q1 2021 Investor Letter</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：2021年第一季度投资者信</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the graph above describes one story. The story that bulls are holding on to. Specifically, bulls make the case that DoorDash is evidently growing at such a fast clip with Q1 2021 reporting 198% y/y revenue growth that investors should be willing to pay up for these sort of revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，上图描述了一个故事。多头坚持的故事。具体来说，看多者认为，DoorDash的增长速度显然如此之快，2021年第一季度的收入同比增长198%，投资者应该愿意为这种收入增长率买单。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, bears contend that if we consider DoorDash's guidance for the quarter ahead it's pointing towards Marketplace GOV of $9.9 billion at the high end, which equates to roughly 61% y/y growth for Marketplace GOV.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，看空者认为，如果我们考虑DoorDash对未来季度的指引，它指向Marketplace GOV的高端目标为99亿美元，这相当于Marketplace GOV的同比增长约61%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Digging Into the Positive and Negatives of DoorDash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>挖掘DoorDash的优点和缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> Presently we are faced with a slight problem.</p><p><blockquote>目前我们面临一个小问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the bullish thesis to work out positively, investors need to be confident as to what DoorDash's sustainable revenue growth rates are going to be as we move over the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>为了使看涨论点取得积极成果，投资者需要对未来12个月DoorDash的可持续收入增长率充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Because for a high growth stock to guide towards decelerating revenue growth rates, that's always going to cause investor anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>因为对于一只高增长股票来说，引导收入增长率减速总是会引起投资者的焦虑。</blockquote></p><p> Although, it's inevitable that at <i>some point</i> DoorDash's revenue growth rates are bound to<i>start</i> to decelerate. In fact, it's fairly obvious that DoorDash wasn't going to continue growing its revenues at north of 170% y/y for a prolonged period of time.</p><p><blockquote>虽然，不可避免的是<i>某一点</i>DoorDash的收入增长率必然会<i>开始</i>减速。事实上，很明显，DoorDash的收入不会在很长一段时间内继续以超过170%的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, the issue gets further complicated because the<i>pace</i>at which DoorDash is slowing growth is causing some questions to surface, such as, at what revenue growth rate will DoorDash stabilize?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这个问题变得更加复杂，因为<i>步伐</i>DoorDash的增长放缓引发了一些问题，例如，DoorDash的收入增长率将稳定在多少？</blockquote></p><p> If, for instance, DoorDash was able to somehow report more than 80% y/y revenue growth rates for its quarter ending June 2021, this would largely put to the rest of the overarching concern investors have that as the economy reopens, that the demand for its platform is slowing demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果DoorDash能够以某种方式报告截至2021年6月的季度收入同比增长率超过80%，这将在很大程度上解决投资者对经济重新开放的其他首要担忧，即对其平台的需求正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, if DoorDash could indeed grow its revenues at 80% y/y, this would demonstrate to investors that DoorDash's business is not maturing and that it has a leading position in a rapidly growing market and that investors are justified in paying a very large multiple for this high growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果DoorDash的收入确实能够同比增长80%，这将向投资者表明DoorDash的业务尚未成熟，并且它在快速增长的市场中处于领先地位，投资者有理由支付非常高的价格这只高增长股票的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> Having said all this, even if DoorDash were to somehow indeed report 80% y/y revenue growth for its upcoming Q2 2021 period, bears would be right to at least<i>tentatively</i>make the argument that, during Q1 2021, DoorDash's revenue growth rates were close to 200%, whereas 90 days later its growth rates have slowed down by more than 100% from one quarter to the next.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，即使DoorDash确实报告即将到来的2021年第二季度收入同比增长80%，看空者至少是正确的<i>暂时地</i>可以说，在2021年第一季度，DoorDash的收入增长率接近200%，而90天后，其增长率从一个季度到下一个季度放缓了100%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Please note, I'm not comparing sequential growth rates between Q1 and Q2 2021, but y/y growth rates. Consequently, I'm declaring that DoorDash's growth rates are unpredictable.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，我不是在比较Q1和Q2 2021年的环比增长率，而是同比增长率。因此，我宣布DoorDash的增长率是不可预测的。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the case remains, that as DoorDash comes up against those particularly challenging comps, the most pressing of which being Q3 2021. Investors are going to be tested on their ultimate conviction as to whether DoorDash has enough of a moat around its operation, or not. And, if DoorDash can deliver more value to Dashers than other food delivery companies to their own merchants, or not.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，DoorDash仍然面临着那些特别具有挑战性的竞争，其中最紧迫的是2021年第三季度。投资者的最终信念将受到考验，即DoorDash的运营是否有足够的护城河。而且，DoorDash是否能为Dashers提供比其他食品配送公司为自己的商家提供更多的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation -- Difficult to Find Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——难寻上行空间</b></blockquote></p><p> I know that DoorDash is not a ''bottom-line stock''. It's a story stock where the narrative is squared on it being a high-growth stock. However, our discussion allows us to momentarily focus on its EBITDA trend.</p><p><blockquote>我知道DoorDash不是一只“底线股票”。这是一只故事股票，其叙事与它是一只高增长股票相一致。然而，我们的讨论使我们能够暂时关注其EBITDA趋势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Q2 2021, DoorDash is guiding for $100 million of EBITDA. This is a 27% y/y increase with the same period a year ago. But when a company is largely expected to grow its top-line by somewhere around 60% and perhaps as much as 80% y/y in the quarter ahead, while its EBITDA is only being guided to grow for sub 30% y/y growth, this forces the question as to whether DoorDash has positive operating leverage or not?</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第二季度，DoorDash预计EBITDA为1亿美元。与去年同期相比，同比增长27%。但是，当一家公司的营收预计将在未来一个季度同比增长60%左右，甚至可能高达80%，而其EBITDA仅被引导同比增长低于30%时，这就提出了DoorDash是否具有正运营杠杆的问题？</blockquote></p><p> Consider that DoorDash's guided $38 billion Marketplace GOV and let us further make the bullish argument that DoorDash's contribution margin reaches a high of 3% for 2021. This would imply that DoorDash's contribution profit for the year reaches $1.1 billion. In that case, DoorDash is valued at approximately 44x forward contribution profits.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下DoorDash指导的380亿美元Marketplace GOV，让我们进一步提出看涨论点，即DoorDash的贡献率在2021年将达到3%的高位。这意味着DoorDash今年的贡献利润将达到11亿美元。在这种情况下，DoorDash的估值约为远期贡献利润的44倍。</blockquote></p><p> For a company without tangible pricing power around its operations, and a rapidly decelerating top-line growth, I am struggling to find its upside potential here.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家在运营方面没有切实定价权且营收增长迅速放缓的公司来说，我很难在这里找到它的上升潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I have attempted to lay out a balanced argument of the puts and takes that investors should consider when it comes to DoorDash.</p><p><blockquote>我试图对投资者在谈到DoorDash时应该考虑的看跌期权和看涨期权提出一个平衡的论点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Bulls would be correct to argue that DoorDash is not looking to maximize its profits at this stage in the game</i>. For now, DoorDash will do whatever it can to reinvest its bottom line, in order to sustainably grow its top line and carve out market share.</p><p><blockquote><i>多头认为DoorDash在游戏的现阶段并不寻求利润最大化，这是正确的</i>目前，DoorDash将尽一切努力对其利润进行再投资，以可持续地增长其营收并开拓市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> However, given that its revenue growth rates are rapidly decelerating, we are only right to question whether DoorDash's reinvestment of its profit carries compelling ROI?</p><p><blockquote>然而，鉴于其收入增长率正在迅速减速，我们质疑DoorDash的利润再投资是否会带来令人信服的投资回报率是正确的？</blockquote></p><p> I declare that these questions are very difficult to correctly answer so I will be looking elsewhere to deploy my own capital. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>我声明这些问题很难正确回答，所以我将寻找其他地方来部署我自己的资本。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432590-doordash-best-case-scenario-this-is-fairly-priced-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DASH":"DoorDash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432590-doordash-best-case-scenario-this-is-fairly-priced-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136539394","content_text":"Summary\n\nAn investment in DoorDash brings up many questions, such as, what's DoorDash's stable revenue growth rate once the economy reopens.\nInvestors are being asked to pay up 44x forward contribution profits - a rich price tag.\nIn the best case, this investment is already fairly priced. Worst case, the stock is very expensive for what it is.\n\nPhoto by Tibrina Hobson/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nDoorDash(NYSE:DASH)is a fast-growing food delivery platform. Yet, it's very difficult to find its sustainable revenue growth rate for the coming twelve months.\nWhat's more, given that the stock is already valued at close to 44x forward contribution profits, I don't see this investment as particularly compelling.\nMoreover, even if DoorDash's growth rates start to stabilize, I am unsure of whether this business has enough pricing power to be rewarded with such a premium valuation.\nRevenue Growth Rates Aren't the Full Story\nSource: Q1 2021 Investor Letter\nOn the one hand, the graph above describes one story. The story that bulls are holding on to. Specifically, bulls make the case that DoorDash is evidently growing at such a fast clip with Q1 2021 reporting 198% y/y revenue growth that investors should be willing to pay up for these sort of revenue growth rates.\nOn the other hand, bears contend that if we consider DoorDash's guidance for the quarter ahead it's pointing towards Marketplace GOV of $9.9 billion at the high end, which equates to roughly 61% y/y growth for Marketplace GOV.\nDigging Into the Positive and Negatives of DoorDash\nPresently we are faced with a slight problem.\nFor the bullish thesis to work out positively, investors need to be confident as to what DoorDash's sustainable revenue growth rates are going to be as we move over the next twelve months.\nBecause for a high growth stock to guide towards decelerating revenue growth rates, that's always going to cause investor anxiety.\nAlthough, it's inevitable that at some point DoorDash's revenue growth rates are bound tostart to decelerate. In fact, it's fairly obvious that DoorDash wasn't going to continue growing its revenues at north of 170% y/y for a prolonged period of time.\nNonetheless, the issue gets further complicated because thepaceat which DoorDash is slowing growth is causing some questions to surface, such as, at what revenue growth rate will DoorDash stabilize?\nIf, for instance, DoorDash was able to somehow report more than 80% y/y revenue growth rates for its quarter ending June 2021, this would largely put to the rest of the overarching concern investors have that as the economy reopens, that the demand for its platform is slowing demand.\nFurthermore, if DoorDash could indeed grow its revenues at 80% y/y, this would demonstrate to investors that DoorDash's business is not maturing and that it has a leading position in a rapidly growing market and that investors are justified in paying a very large multiple for this high growth stock.\nHaving said all this, even if DoorDash were to somehow indeed report 80% y/y revenue growth for its upcoming Q2 2021 period, bears would be right to at leasttentativelymake the argument that, during Q1 2021, DoorDash's revenue growth rates were close to 200%, whereas 90 days later its growth rates have slowed down by more than 100% from one quarter to the next.\nPlease note, I'm not comparing sequential growth rates between Q1 and Q2 2021, but y/y growth rates. Consequently, I'm declaring that DoorDash's growth rates are unpredictable.\nNevertheless, the case remains, that as DoorDash comes up against those particularly challenging comps, the most pressing of which being Q3 2021. Investors are going to be tested on their ultimate conviction as to whether DoorDash has enough of a moat around its operation, or not. And, if DoorDash can deliver more value to Dashers than other food delivery companies to their own merchants, or not.\nValuation -- Difficult to Find Upside Potential\nI know that DoorDash is not a ''bottom-line stock''. It's a story stock where the narrative is squared on it being a high-growth stock. However, our discussion allows us to momentarily focus on its EBITDA trend.\nFor Q2 2021, DoorDash is guiding for $100 million of EBITDA. This is a 27% y/y increase with the same period a year ago. But when a company is largely expected to grow its top-line by somewhere around 60% and perhaps as much as 80% y/y in the quarter ahead, while its EBITDA is only being guided to grow for sub 30% y/y growth, this forces the question as to whether DoorDash has positive operating leverage or not?\nConsider that DoorDash's guided $38 billion Marketplace GOV and let us further make the bullish argument that DoorDash's contribution margin reaches a high of 3% for 2021. This would imply that DoorDash's contribution profit for the year reaches $1.1 billion. In that case, DoorDash is valued at approximately 44x forward contribution profits.\nFor a company without tangible pricing power around its operations, and a rapidly decelerating top-line growth, I am struggling to find its upside potential here.\nThe Bottom Line\nI have attempted to lay out a balanced argument of the puts and takes that investors should consider when it comes to DoorDash.\nBulls would be correct to argue that DoorDash is not looking to maximize its profits at this stage in the game. For now, DoorDash will do whatever it can to reinvest its bottom line, in order to sustainably grow its top line and carve out market share.\nHowever, given that its revenue growth rates are rapidly decelerating, we are only right to question whether DoorDash's reinvestment of its profit carries compelling ROI?\nI declare that these questions are very difficult to correctly answer so I will be looking elsewhere to deploy my own capital. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DASH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/111830643"}
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