egtan的个人主页 - 老虎社区

egtan

egtan

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2021-06-25

Hmm why not yet

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-24

Go go

2021-06-24

Hmmm please viral

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-24

Hmmmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-21

Like for points

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-21

To the moon

2021-06-20

Uhmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-20

Hmmmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-19

need more omphhh to go up

2021-06-19

Oh no.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$[白眼]

2021-06-18

Go go

2021-06-18

Who will win ? Fb or tiktok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

Go go go

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-17

$GoodRx Holdings, Inc.(GDRX)$sigh

2021-06-17

Undervalued?

2021-06-16

Hmm .

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-06-15

Hmmm join the fray

Blockchain stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>区块链股票早盘涨跌互现</blockquote>

2021-06-01

Go up

2021-06-01

Hmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Inc.(GDRX)$sigh","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03020bf404da5b301c30f49c24c77922","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163420147","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163467961,"gmtCreate":1623891624853,"gmtModify":1634026359648,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Undervalued?","listText":"Undervalued?","text":"Undervalued?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e91b2e8c1b9d497568ec3f680866f8ba","width":"1080","height":"1947"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163467961","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160639440,"gmtCreate":1623793190280,"gmtModify":1634028256857,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm .","listText":"Hmm .","text":"Hmm .","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160639440","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160005909,"gmtCreate":1623765738501,"gmtModify":1634028658865,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmm join the fray","listText":"Hmmm join the fray","text":"Hmmm join the fray","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160005909","repostId":"1180911259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180911259","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623765092,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180911259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Blockchain stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>区块链股票早盘涨跌互现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180911259","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 15) Blockchain stocks mixed in morning trading.","content":"<p>(June&nbsp;15)&nbsp;Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;mixed&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月15日）区块链股票早盘涨跌互现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2add04248d60bb69c41121475aca5e34\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Blockchain stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>区块链股票早盘涨跌互现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlockchain stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>区块链股票早盘涨跌互现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-15 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June&nbsp;15)&nbsp;Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;mixed&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月15日）区块链股票早盘涨跌互现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2add04248d60bb69c41121475aca5e34\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","EBON":"亿邦国际","MARA":"MARA Holdings","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","CAN":"嘉楠科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180911259","content_text":"(June 15) Blockchain stocks mixed in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MARA":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"EBON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119156123,"gmtCreate":1622530166862,"gmtModify":1634100770678,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go up","listText":"Go up","text":"Go up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81084ccae3c6769e5b3a2bb2ba05f188","width":"1080","height":"1947"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119156123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119151437,"gmtCreate":1622529991129,"gmtModify":1634100771650,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119151437","repostId":"1163643126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":327511276,"gmtCreate":1616109402595,"gmtModify":1634527232246,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmm.","listText":"Hmmm.","text":"Hmmm.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327511276","repostId":"2120163660","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101388172,"gmtCreate":1619845668496,"gmtModify":1634209500257,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment please","listText":"Comment please","text":"Comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101388172","repostId":"1142063705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134112436,"gmtCreate":1622211107425,"gmtModify":1634182794293,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134112436","repostId":"1143584507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143584507","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622210956,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143584507?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"HP Falls On Warning Chip Shortage May Hurt Supplies<blockquote>惠普警告芯片短缺可能会损害供应</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143584507","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Shares of HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) fell by more than 8% as the company’s warning that the semiconductor chi","content":"<p>Shares of HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) fell by more than 8%&nbsp;as the company’s warning that the semiconductor chip shortage would limit its ability to supply personal computing devices and printers at least until the end of the year overshadowed its robust quarterly earnings.</p><p><blockquote>惠普公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）股价下跌超过 8%，原因是该公司警告称，半导体芯片短缺将限制其至少在今年年底前供应个人计算设备和打印机的能力，这给其强劲的季度收益蒙上了阴影。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b2133d316e99117f646de1446db8c4\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Not&nbsp;with&nbsp;standing shortage of raw materials that go into devices, the maker of desktops, laptops, printers and other IT peripherals retains a bullish outlook about the overall demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于设备原材料长期短缺，这家台式机、笔记本电脑、打印机和其他 IT 外围设备制造商对整体需求保持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p>But the company’s caution only added to what many have been fearing and that is that sales of its PCs might have peaked. The contention is that increasing vaccinations will bring more people back into their offices, diluting the need for personal computers as they no longer work from home.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的谨慎只会加剧许多人的担忧，那就是其个人电脑的销量可能已经见顶。争论是，增加疫苗接种将使更多的人回到他们的办公室，随着他们不再在家工作，对个人电脑的需求被稀释。</blockquote></p><p>According to TheStreet, analysts atCitigroup(NYSE:C) pointed to HP not getting “… the full sales upside to flow through the EPS,” which “will likely raise a new question for investors: “Is this the peak?”</p><p><blockquote>据 TheStreet 报道，花旗集团（纽约证券交易所股票代码：C）的分析师指出，惠普没有 “.销售额的全部上涨空间通过每股收益流动”，这 “可能会给投资者提出一个新的问题： “这是巅峰吗？”</blockquote></p><p>Still, Citigroup has a buy rating on the stock and a year’s target of $40, TheStreet said. This is approximately 25% higher from its last close of $32.10.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，花旗集团仍对该股给予买入评级，一年目标价为 40 美元。这比最后收盘价 32.10 美元上涨了约 25%。</blockquote></p><p>HP reported second quarter non-GAAP diluted net EPS of $0.93 on revenue of $15.9 billion which rose 27.3% from a year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>惠普公布第二季度非 GAAP 摊薄净每股收益为 0.93 美元，营收为 159 亿美元，同比增长 27.3%。</blockquote></p><p>For the third quarter, HP estimates non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.81 to $0.85.</p><p><blockquote>惠普预计第三季度非 GAAP 摊薄净每股收益将在 0.81 美元至 0.85 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>For fiscal 2021, non-GAAP diluted net EPS is seen between $3.40 and $3.50.</p><p><blockquote>2021 财年，非 GAAP 摊薄净每股收益预计在 3.40 美元至 3.50 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HP Falls On Warning Chip Shortage May Hurt Supplies<blockquote>惠普警告芯片短缺可能会损害供应</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHP Falls On Warning Chip Shortage May Hurt Supplies<blockquote>惠普警告芯片短缺可能会损害供应</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-28 22:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) fell by more than 8%&nbsp;as the company’s warning that the semiconductor chip shortage would limit its ability to supply personal computing devices and printers at least until the end of the year overshadowed its robust quarterly earnings.</p><p><blockquote>惠普公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）股价下跌超过 8%，原因是该公司警告称，半导体芯片短缺将限制其至少在今年年底前供应个人计算设备和打印机的能力，这给其强劲的季度收益蒙上了阴影。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b2133d316e99117f646de1446db8c4\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Not&nbsp;with&nbsp;standing shortage of raw materials that go into devices, the maker of desktops, laptops, printers and other IT peripherals retains a bullish outlook about the overall demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于设备原材料长期短缺，这家台式机、笔记本电脑、打印机和其他 IT 外围设备制造商对整体需求保持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p>But the company’s caution only added to what many have been fearing and that is that sales of its PCs might have peaked. The contention is that increasing vaccinations will bring more people back into their offices, diluting the need for personal computers as they no longer work from home.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的谨慎只会加剧许多人的担忧，那就是其个人电脑的销量可能已经见顶。争论是，增加疫苗接种将使更多的人回到他们的办公室，随着他们不再在家工作，对个人电脑的需求被稀释。</blockquote></p><p>According to TheStreet, analysts atCitigroup(NYSE:C) pointed to HP not getting “… the full sales upside to flow through the EPS,” which “will likely raise a new question for investors: “Is this the peak?”</p><p><blockquote>据 TheStreet 报道，花旗集团（纽约证券交易所股票代码：C）的分析师指出，惠普没有 “.销售额的全部上涨空间通过每股收益流动”，这 “可能会给投资者提出一个新的问题： “这是巅峰吗？”</blockquote></p><p>Still, Citigroup has a buy rating on the stock and a year’s target of $40, TheStreet said. This is approximately 25% higher from its last close of $32.10.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，花旗集团仍对该股给予买入评级，一年目标价为 40 美元。这比最后收盘价 32.10 美元上涨了约 25%。</blockquote></p><p>HP reported second quarter non-GAAP diluted net EPS of $0.93 on revenue of $15.9 billion which rose 27.3% from a year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>惠普公布第二季度非 GAAP 摊薄净每股收益为 0.93 美元，营收为 159 亿美元，同比增长 27.3%。</blockquote></p><p>For the third quarter, HP estimates non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.81 to $0.85.</p><p><blockquote>惠普预计第三季度非 GAAP 摊薄净每股收益将在 0.81 美元至 0.85 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>For fiscal 2021, non-GAAP diluted net EPS is seen between $3.40 and $3.50.</p><p><blockquote>2021 财年，非 GAAP 摊薄净每股收益预计在 3.40 美元至 3.50 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HPQ":"惠普"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143584507","content_text":"Shares of HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) fell by more than 8% as the company’s warning that the semiconductor chip shortage would limit its ability to supply personal computing devices and printers at least until the end of the year overshadowed its robust quarterly earnings.Not with standing shortage of raw materials that go into devices, the maker of desktops, laptops, printers and other IT peripherals retains a bullish outlook about the overall demand.But the company’s caution only added to what many have been fearing and that is that sales of its PCs might have peaked. The contention is that increasing vaccinations will bring more people back into their offices, diluting the need for personal computers as they no longer work from home.According to TheStreet, analysts atCitigroup(NYSE:C) pointed to HP not getting “… the full sales upside to flow through the EPS,” which “will likely raise a new question for investors: “Is this the peak?”Still, Citigroup has a buy rating on the stock and a year’s target of $40, TheStreet said. This is approximately 25% higher from its last close of $32.10.HP reported second quarter non-GAAP diluted net EPS of $0.93 on revenue of $15.9 billion which rose 27.3% from a year-ago period.For the third quarter, HP estimates non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.81 to $0.85.For fiscal 2021, non-GAAP diluted net EPS is seen between $3.40 and $3.50.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HPQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358072664,"gmtCreate":1616645784558,"gmtModify":1634524750903,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment this","listText":"Comment this","text":"Comment this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358072664","repostId":"1118856005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118856005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616641208,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118856005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 11:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Li Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚的新交易是支撑长实股价的最新举措</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118856005","media":"bloomberg","summary":"Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the ","content":"<p>Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.</p><p><blockquote>香港亿万富翁李嘉诚（Li Ka-shing）和他的长子李维胜（Victor Li）正在加紧努力提振家族企业SCK资产控股有限公司（SCK Asset Holdings Ltd.）的股票，此前他们以44亿港元（约合5.66亿美元）的价格购买了该公司股票，但未能扭转暴跌的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Li’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.</p><p><blockquote>李嘉诚的慈善机构李嘉诚基金会（theLi Ka Shing Foundation）将以 170 亿港元的股票向长实出售持有英国和荷兰基础设施运营股份的四家公司。为避免稀释现有股东，公司将以较前收盘价溢价8.4%的价格从市场上回购相同数量的股份。</blockquote></p><p> By undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>通过进行约两年半以来的首次回购，长江实业希望提振自2019年初以来已下跌超过16%的股价，而基准恒生指数则上涨了8%。</blockquote></p><p> CK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>李氏家族长江集团旗下的房地产旗舰长江实业（CK Asset）在2019年年中开始的香港反北京抗议活动以及冠状病毒大流行之后，其房地产开发、飞机租赁和酒吧业务等业务受到了沉重打击。长江资产没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”</p><p><blockquote>“大和资本市场（Daiwa Capital Markets）分析师乔纳斯-坎（Jonas Kan）在公告发布后的一份报告中说：”这笔交易的一个关键信息是，CKA 并没有放弃 ”回购。“如果 CKA 未来在回购方面变得更加积极，我们不会感到惊讶，这将对其股价形成支撑。”</blockquote></p><p> The shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>交易宣布后的第二天，该股股价飙升 7.2%。此后，他们抹去了其中一些收益，这与恒生指数的更广泛下降相一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a006d1652c46f3d8e915d216590742\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该基金会将确保长江实业在今年和明年从基建资产中获得至少9.1亿港元的股息、利息和其他现金分配，这将使交易更加甜蜜。该公司还承诺这两年的股息高于 2020 年支付的股息。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这笔交易让一些投资者对公司的治理提出了质疑，该安排允许李氏家族将其在长江实业的持股比例从目前的 36% 增加到 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者本尼-钟（Benny Chung）在周一网上发表的一篇专栏文章中说，他减持的部分原因是这笔交易似乎以牺牲少数股东为代价增加了家族的控制权。他说，尽管有回购溢价，但每股 51 港元的要约仍比公司资产净值折让了 47%。</blockquote></p><p> “The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”</p><p><blockquote>“CGS-CIMB 分析师 Raymond Cheng 说：”该家族正在以相当大的折扣间接增持长江资产。“一些股东对此不太满意”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚的新交易是支撑长实股价的最新举措</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚的新交易是支撑长实股价的最新举措</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.</p><p><blockquote>香港亿万富翁李嘉诚（Li Ka-shing）和他的长子李维胜（Victor Li）正在加紧努力提振家族企业SCK资产控股有限公司（SCK Asset Holdings Ltd.）的股票，此前他们以44亿港元（约合5.66亿美元）的价格购买了该公司股票，但未能扭转暴跌的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Li’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.</p><p><blockquote>李嘉诚的慈善机构李嘉诚基金会（theLi Ka Shing Foundation）将以 170 亿港元的股票向长实出售持有英国和荷兰基础设施运营股份的四家公司。为避免稀释现有股东，公司将以较前收盘价溢价8.4%的价格从市场上回购相同数量的股份。</blockquote></p><p> By undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>通过进行约两年半以来的首次回购，长江实业希望提振自2019年初以来已下跌超过16%的股价，而基准恒生指数则上涨了8%。</blockquote></p><p> CK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>李氏家族长江集团旗下的房地产旗舰长江实业（CK Asset）在2019年年中开始的香港反北京抗议活动以及冠状病毒大流行之后，其房地产开发、飞机租赁和酒吧业务等业务受到了沉重打击。长江资产没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”</p><p><blockquote>“大和资本市场（Daiwa Capital Markets）分析师乔纳斯-坎（Jonas Kan）在公告发布后的一份报告中说：”这笔交易的一个关键信息是，CKA 并没有放弃 ”回购。“如果 CKA 未来在回购方面变得更加积极，我们不会感到惊讶，这将对其股价形成支撑。”</blockquote></p><p> The shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>交易宣布后的第二天，该股股价飙升 7.2%。此后，他们抹去了其中一些收益，这与恒生指数的更广泛下降相一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a006d1652c46f3d8e915d216590742\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该基金会将确保长江实业在今年和明年从基建资产中获得至少9.1亿港元的股息、利息和其他现金分配，这将使交易更加甜蜜。该公司还承诺这两年的股息高于 2020 年支付的股息。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这笔交易让一些投资者对公司的治理提出了质疑，该安排允许李氏家族将其在长江实业的持股比例从目前的 36% 增加到 45%。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者本尼-钟（Benny Chung）在周一网上发表的一篇专栏文章中说，他减持的部分原因是这笔交易似乎以牺牲少数股东为代价增加了家族的控制权。他说，尽管有回购溢价，但每股 51 港元的要约仍比公司资产净值折让了 47%。</blockquote></p><p> “The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”</p><p><blockquote>“CGS-CIMB 分析师 Raymond Cheng 说：”该家族正在以相当大的折扣间接增持长江资产。“一些股东对此不太满意”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/li-s-new-deal-is-latest-effort-to-prop-up-ck-asset-share-price\">bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/li-s-new-deal-is-latest-effort-to-prop-up-ck-asset-share-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118856005","content_text":"Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.\nLi’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.\nBy undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.\nCK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.\n“One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”\nThe shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.\n\nFurther sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.\nYet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.\nIndividual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.\n“The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166762494,"gmtCreate":1624025577018,"gmtModify":1634023915637,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$[白眼]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68b5a366313e605c3cfdd469bdb06467","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166762494","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359167577,"gmtCreate":1616375058399,"gmtModify":1634526198934,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359167577","repostId":"1160065206","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160065206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616374606,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160065206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160065206","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHow","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li>  <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li>  <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间地降低利率的前景正是股市希望听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致我们的收益率飙升。</li><li>更高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？阅读市场的会员可以获得独家的想法和指导，以适应任何气候。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不那么高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长型和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也将紧随其后，因为市场上几乎没有“便宜”的板块了。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储会让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不舒服。3 月 18 日利率大幅上升，10 年期国债目前交易价格略低于 1.75%。曲线继续上升，因为债券市场担心过热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通货膨胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更早、甚至可能比预期更快地加息打开了大门。这导致债券收益率走高。此外，随着新一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务流入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息乍一看似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么能让股市和债市满意。美联储选择安抚股市。但股票价格来源于利率，随着利率上升，股票价格需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续在较低水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&amp;P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期票据，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间相当。在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&amp;P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&amp;P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前约为1.44%，只是在世纪之交的另一个时期更低。现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么，随着时间的推移，10年期收益率会拉低标普500股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自 2010 年以来，10 年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价 21 个基点。目前为 20 个基点，这意味着从这一点开始，10 年期国债的高位移动可能会导致溢价扩大，或者拖累标普500收益率随着 10 年期国债的走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&amp;P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货膨胀型股票。问题是没有讨价还价的部门了——没有“价值”贸易。廉价股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面薄弱。过去六个月，标普500价值ETF的前十大持仓量飙升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Name</td>    <td>Symbol</td>    <td>3/18/2021</td>    <td>10/31/2020</td>    <td>% Change</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td>    <td>XOM</td>    <td>58.25</td>    <td>$ 32.62</td>    <td>78.57%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td>    <td>BAC</td>    <td>39.9274</td>    <td>$ 23.70</td>    <td>68.47%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td>    <td>JPM</td>    <td>161.48</td>    <td>$ 98.04</td>    <td>64.71%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td>    <td>DIS</td>    <td>193.735</td>    <td>$ 121.25</td>    <td>59.78%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CHEVRON ORD</td>    <td>CVX</td>    <td>106.65</td>    <td>$ 69.50</td>    <td>53.45%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>INTEL ORD</td>    <td>INTC.O</td>    <td>64.98</td>    <td>$ 44.28</td>    <td>46.75%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td>    <td>BRKb</td>    <td>255.2</td>    <td>$ 201.90</td>    <td>26.40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JOHNSON &amp; JOHNSON ORD</td>    <td>JNJ</td>    <td>161.1501</td>    <td>$ 137.11</td>    <td>17.53%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AT&amp;T ORD</td>    <td>T</td>    <td>30.245</td>    <td>$ 27.02</td>    <td>11.94%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td>    <td>VZ</td>    <td>56.095</td>    <td>$ 56.99</td>    <td>-1.57%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚ORD</td><td>生的</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行秩序</td><td>巴克</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通ORD</td><td>摩根大通</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>沃尔特·迪士尼</td><td>迪斯</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>人字形字</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔字</td><td>国际组织</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 CL B ORD</td><td>布尔克布</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生公司</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>美国电话电报公司</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也因许多交易处于历史高位而捉襟见肘，相对于 10 年期国债利率，该行业的估值自 2017 年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。相对于 10 年期利率，工业部门只出现过一次如此昂贵的情况，那是在 2018 年 1 月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源领域可能还有一些价值。但这两个部门与它们所代表的商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，从而拖累各行业走低。美元似乎准备上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率开始再次上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债之间的利差为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元并提振其价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价摆脱高位，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会继续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在跌破 66.50 美元左右的关键阻力位后已经下跌。它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使大宗商品回到54美元。这可以很容易地扭转能源领域的火热轮换。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意允许这种情况发生，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会走强，被高估的股票就会相对增长，迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li>  <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li>  <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间地降低利率的前景正是股市希望听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致我们的收益率飙升。</li><li>更高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找帮助？阅读市场的会员可以获得独家的想法和指导，以适应任何气候。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不那么高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长型和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也将紧随其后，因为市场上几乎没有“便宜”的板块了。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储会让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不舒服。3 月 18 日利率大幅上升，10 年期国债目前交易价格略低于 1.75%。曲线继续上升，因为债券市场担心过热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通货膨胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更早、甚至可能比预期更快地加息打开了大门。这导致债券收益率走高。此外，随着新一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务流入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息乍一看似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么能让股市和债市满意。美联储选择安抚股市。但股票价格来源于利率，随着利率上升，股票价格需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续在较低水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&amp;P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期票据，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间相当。在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&amp;P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&amp;P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前约为1.44%，只是在世纪之交的另一个时期更低。现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么，随着时间的推移，10年期收益率会拉低标普500股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自 2010 年以来，10 年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价 21 个基点。目前为 20 个基点，这意味着从这一点开始，10 年期国债的高位移动可能会导致溢价扩大，或者拖累标普500收益率随着 10 年期国债的走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&amp;P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货膨胀型股票。问题是没有讨价还价的部门了——没有“价值”贸易。廉价股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面薄弱。过去六个月，标普500价值ETF的前十大持仓量飙升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Name</td>    <td>Symbol</td>    <td>3/18/2021</td>    <td>10/31/2020</td>    <td>% Change</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td>    <td>XOM</td>    <td>58.25</td>    <td>$ 32.62</td>    <td>78.57%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td>    <td>BAC</td>    <td>39.9274</td>    <td>$ 23.70</td>    <td>68.47%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td>    <td>JPM</td>    <td>161.48</td>    <td>$ 98.04</td>    <td>64.71%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td>    <td>DIS</td>    <td>193.735</td>    <td>$ 121.25</td>    <td>59.78%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CHEVRON ORD</td>    <td>CVX</td>    <td>106.65</td>    <td>$ 69.50</td>    <td>53.45%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>INTEL ORD</td>    <td>INTC.O</td>    <td>64.98</td>    <td>$ 44.28</td>    <td>46.75%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td>    <td>BRKb</td>    <td>255.2</td>    <td>$ 201.90</td>    <td>26.40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JOHNSON &amp; JOHNSON ORD</td>    <td>JNJ</td>    <td>161.1501</td>    <td>$ 137.11</td>    <td>17.53%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AT&amp;T ORD</td>    <td>T</td>    <td>30.245</td>    <td>$ 27.02</td>    <td>11.94%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td>    <td>VZ</td>    <td>56.095</td>    <td>$ 56.99</td>    <td>-1.57%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚ORD</td><td>生的</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行秩序</td><td>巴克</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通ORD</td><td>摩根大通</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>沃尔特·迪士尼</td><td>迪斯</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>人字形字</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔字</td><td>国际组织</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 CL B ORD</td><td>布尔克布</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生公司</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>美国电话电报公司</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也因许多交易处于历史高位而捉襟见肘，相对于 10 年期国债利率，该行业的估值自 2017 年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。相对于 10 年期利率，工业部门只出现过一次如此昂贵的情况，那是在 2018 年 1 月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源领域可能还有一些价值。但这两个部门与它们所代表的商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，从而拖累各行业走低。美元似乎准备上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于对通胀的担忧，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率开始再次上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债之间的利差为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元并提振其价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元升值已经帮助油价摆脱高位，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会继续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在跌破 66.50 美元左右的关键阻力位后已经下跌。它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使大宗商品回到54美元。这可以很容易地扭转能源领域的火热轮换。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意允许这种情况发生，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会走强，被高估的股票就会相对增长，迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160065206","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHowever, that has sent US yields soaring.\nThe higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.\nIn essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.\nIt leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.\nWhile the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.\nThe problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.\n\nFrom another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.\n\nThe rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.\n\n\n\nName\nSymbol\n3/18/2021\n10/31/2020\n% Change\n\n\nEXXON MOBIL ORD\nXOM\n58.25\n$ 32.62\n78.57%\n\n\nBANK OF AMERICA ORD\nBAC\n39.9274\n$ 23.70\n68.47%\n\n\nJPMORGAN CHASE ORD\nJPM\n161.48\n$ 98.04\n64.71%\n\n\nWALT DISNEY ORD\nDIS\n193.735\n$ 121.25\n59.78%\n\n\nCHEVRON ORD\nCVX\n106.65\n$ 69.50\n53.45%\n\n\nINTEL ORD\nINTC.O\n64.98\n$ 44.28\n46.75%\n\n\nBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD\nBRKb\n255.2\n$ 201.90\n26.40%\n\n\nJOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD\nJNJ\n161.1501\n$ 137.11\n17.53%\n\n\nAT&T ORD\nT\n30.245\n$ 27.02\n11.94%\n\n\nVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD\nVZ\n56.095\n$ 56.99\n-1.57%\n\n\n\nThe banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.\nSure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.\nThe dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.\n\nSource: TradingView\nThe rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.\nSource: TradingView\nIf the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326434730,"gmtCreate":1615695128220,"gmtModify":1703492168703,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes.","listText":"Yes.","text":"Yes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326434730","repostId":"1199156489","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199156489","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615452861,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199156489?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 16:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199156489","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving tim","content":"<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p><blockquote>从美国东部时间3月14日（本周日）02:00开始， 北美地区进入夏令时， 直到美国东部时间2021年11月7日02:00结束。</blockquote></p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从3月14日（星期一）开始，美国市场将在北美夏令时提前一小时开盘和收盘，即美国交易时间将改为北京时间21:30至凌晨04:00，交易前时间为16:00至21:30，交易后时间为04:00至8:00。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是夏令时？</b></blockquote></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p><blockquote>夏令时是在夏季将时钟拨快一小时的做法，这样白天就能持续到晚上。大多数北美和欧洲都遵循这一习俗，而其他大多数国家则不遵循这一习俗。</blockquote></p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>夏威夷、美属萨摩亚、关岛、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛和亚利桑那州大部分地区不实行夏令时。维持现状是当务之急。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-11 16:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p><blockquote>从美国东部时间3月14日（本周日）02:00开始， 北美地区进入夏令时， 直到美国东部时间2021年11月7日02:00结束。</blockquote></p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从3月14日（星期一）开始，美国市场将在北美夏令时提前一小时开盘和收盘，即美国交易时间将改为北京时间21:30至凌晨04:00，交易前时间为16:00至21:30，交易后时间为04:00至8:00。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是夏令时？</b></blockquote></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p><blockquote>夏令时是在夏季将时钟拨快一小时的做法，这样白天就能持续到晚上。大多数北美和欧洲都遵循这一习俗，而其他大多数国家则不遵循这一习俗。</blockquote></p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>夏威夷、美属萨摩亚、关岛、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛和亚利桑那州大部分地区不实行夏令时。维持现状是当务之急。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199156489","content_text":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving time,until 02:00 U.S. East time ends on November 7,2021.So,starting on Monday,March 14,the U.S. market will open and close one hour ahead of schedule during north american daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S. trading time will be changed to 21:30 beijing time to 04:00 a.m.the next day,pre-trade time will be 16:00 to 21:30,after-trade time will be 04:00 to 8:00.What is daylight saving time?The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167360291,"gmtCreate":1624247549713,"gmtModify":1631892197026,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like for points","listText":"Like for points","text":"Like for points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167360291","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195557859,"gmtCreate":1621303595971,"gmtModify":1634192612825,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hopefully tml will be better","listText":"Hopefully tml will be better","text":"Hopefully tml will be better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195557859","repostId":"2136295438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191435574,"gmtCreate":1620897340398,"gmtModify":1634195474791,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572044425484197","authorIdStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment plz","listText":"Comment plz","text":"Comment plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191435574","repostId":"1134419676","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134419676","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620892887,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134419676?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-13 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134419676","media":"zerohedge","summary":"I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of i","content":"<p>I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说在通货膨胀完全到来之前，没有其他方法可以做到这一点，只是说，如果其他方法都做不到，我一直在写的那种通货膨胀肯定会做到这一点。这就是让市场感到恐惧的原因，这可能不是一些投资者首先想到的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.</p><p><blockquote>许多人都在谈论投资股票的 “风险溢价”。随着通货膨胀上升，债券收益率上升以抵消通货膨胀造成的损失。随着债券收益率上升，股票的竞争力下降。</blockquote></p><p>That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.</p><p><blockquote>这是个问题，但不是大问题。这次不行。</blockquote></p><p>The big&nbsp;problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是，我们都知道股票的资金来源——美联储和美国政府通过借入和分配美联储印制的货币。所以，最大的问题是美联储。</blockquote></p><p><b>Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储陷入了自己造成的混乱</b></blockquote></p><p>Having made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.</p><p><blockquote>美联储已经证明高通胀已成定局，用不了多久，美联储就会陷入一个陷阱：它需要继续创造货币，以保持市场上涨并继续刺激经济，但它将无法做到这一点。这就是为什么我们现在不断听到美联储在谈论通货膨胀是 “短暂的”。美联储需要让所有投资者相信通货膨胀迅速出现的时期将是短暂的，因此可以忽略不计。美联储需要市场相信它能够并且将会继续印钞。</blockquote></p><p>However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储只是在自欺欺人。它声称通货膨胀是暂时的，以便可以忽略快速增长的数字，通货膨胀就会越失控，因为美联储和联邦政府继续印钞和运输货币的装甲车昼夜不停地行驶。（当然，这是比喻。）</blockquote></p><p>The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会欺骗自己（和我们）的长期伤害，但它不太可能欺骗市场太久，因为这些数字将变得太高，市场无法忽视。周三，我们从市场对多年来最高通胀率消息的反应中看到了这一点--4 月份的年化通胀率为 4.2%，远低于我们今年夏天即将看到的通胀率水平。这只是球场的收尾。</blockquote></p><p><b>How inflation will fight the Fed and win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀将如何对抗美联储并取得胜利</b></blockquote></p><p>The danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀带来的危险是，如果它上升到我确信它会上涨的高度（两位数），那么美联储将被迫提高利率目标，因为市场无论如何都会推高利率，使美联储看起来很愚蠢，因为它声称利率目标是它无法持有的。美联储将无法在不通过创造新货币造成更大通胀的情况下不惜一切代价压低利率。</blockquote></p><p>However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不仅仅是债券义务警员将从美联储手中夺走利率控制权，股市还将迫使美联储应对通货膨胀，因为无论美联储是否表示应该这样做。消费者还将向国会施压，要求美联储应对通货膨胀。拖延的时间越长，美联储就必须大幅提高利率，就像保罗-沃尔克（Paul Volker）在 80 年代为控制通胀所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p>This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.</p><p><blockquote>在股市处于荒谬危险的高度之际，这个难题现在开始成为现实。对通货膨胀的模糊认识不再那么模糊，这就是为什么市场正在耗尽动力。投资者开始相信美联储将失去对利率的控制。投资者开始怀疑美联储的信心。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>当然，要崩盘，势头必须向下，而在市场确信美联储将失去控制之前，这种情况不太可能发生；但这种情况一开始可能会缓慢发生，然后像 2018 年那样迅速发生。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀是美联储背上的一颗定时炸弹。我的论点是，现在每个月，美联储都会发现越来越难维持一种幻觉，即它可以继续创造货币，通过政府刺激计划（应政府要求）将货币注入夫妻俩投资者（散户投资者、罗宾汉人群等）手中，并继续试图保持低利率，通过贷款资助的公司股票回购将资金注入股市。通货膨胀将压垮宽松货币。它统治。美联储可以控制它，但只能通过拿走资金并摧毁完全依赖资金的市场。</blockquote></p><p>The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.</p><p><blockquote>盘子旋转器开始失去对所有盘子的控制，它必须在小棒的末端保持旋转。今天的市场走势表明，随着通胀比投资者担心的更糟糕，市场开始关注板块下跌的声音。这个<i>真的</i>恐惧——直到现在才被预示的深度瘫痪恐惧——不是来自债券收益率上升的竞争（这肯定会到来），而是通胀将变得足够热，以至于美联储将被迫关闭所有的动力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀有能力突然改变市场情绪，因为，嗯，跟随资金回到它的来源。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. <i>MarketWatch</i>Inflation jitters will become inflation&nbsp;<i>panic</i>&nbsp;when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>一份报告显示，随着新冠疫情的复苏，截至 4 月份的一年中，美国通胀率以约 13 年来最快的速度上升，通胀担忧再次蔓延，股市大幅走低。<i>市场观察</i>通货膨胀恐慌将变成通货膨胀<i>恐慌</i>当人们清楚地认识到，升至 4.2 不仅仅是昙花一现，而是未来许多步骤中消费者方面的第一步时。希望我的读者都没有太关注那些预测只有3.6%的经济学家。</blockquote></p><p>“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.&nbsp; <b><i>But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.</i></b>”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀摧毁财富。Incapital 交易主管帕特里克-利里（Patrick Leary）在接受 MarketWatch 采访时说：”通货膨胀摧毁财富。“我们看到通货膨胀出现在市场上。如果通货膨胀确实是暂时的，市场就能忍受通货膨胀。<b><i>但如果不是暂时的，那就会成为股市的麻烦。</i></b>“财富的毁灭是一个问题，但我认为，更大的问题是亚马逊规模的轻松资金流入市场的流失。这就是为什么当就业报告真的很糟糕时，市场上涨了。就业放缓的报告缓解了对通胀的担忧，导致美联储关闭了这一流动。这就是为什么市场今天因与许多人预期相反的可靠消息而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten,<i>&nbsp;regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.</i></p><p><blockquote>美联储的手可能很快就会被现实所迫；如果你一直在阅读这里--尤其是《赞助人》中那些重点关注通货膨胀的帖子，你就会对即将发生的事情有一个很好的了解。然而，人们不必等到美联储收紧货币政策才能阻止通货膨胀；人们只需等到股票投资者确信美联储将不得不收紧货币政策，<i>无论美联储声称向投资者保证什么，它都不会。</i></blockquote></p><p>As&nbsp;<i>MarketWatch</i>&nbsp;noted yesterday,</p><p><blockquote>作为<i>市场观察</i>昨天指出，</blockquote></p><p>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,&nbsp; <b><i>as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</i></b>&nbsp;After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear&nbsp; <b><i>Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.</i></b>The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.</p><p><blockquote>周二股市看起来很危险，尤其是科技领域，<b><i>随着通胀紧张情绪继续波及整个市场。由于担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束因 COVID-19 大流行病而采取的宽松立场，该行业一直首当其冲。</i></b>继上周就业意外之后，一些人感到担忧<b><i>周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。</i></b>市场在自己的负担下不堪重负和紧张，以至于如果它仅仅相信美联储将被迫收紧货币政策，它就会崩溃。这就是为什么它今天会像预震一样震动，但如果你一直在阅读这里的内容，那就一点也不震动了。这是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Inflation is the “</i></b> <b>worst-case</b> <b><i>&nbsp;scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors,</i></b>&nbsp;warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the&nbsp;<i>key</i>:</p><p><blockquote><b><i>通货膨胀是“</i></b><b>最坏情况</b><b><i>对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场，</i></b>Stock Traders Daily 总裁兼首席执行官兼 Equity Logic 投资组合经理 Thomas H. Kee Jr. 警告我们今天的看涨期权。这是<i>钥匙</i>:</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.&nbsp; <b><i>If inflation comes back,</i></b> <b>all</b> <b><i>&nbsp;of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be</i></b> <b>able</b> <b><i>&nbsp;to come back to save the day</i></b>,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and <b><i>&nbsp;if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen</i></b>&nbsp;either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ <b><i>When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!</i></b>”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed&nbsp;<i>wants</i>&nbsp;higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施之所以成为可能，唯一的原因就是没有通货膨胀。<b><i>如果通货膨胀再次出现，</i></b><b>全部</b><b><i>投资者获得的保障措施（刺激措施带来的免费资金）将被取消，并且不会……</i></b><b>能</b><b><i>回来拯救世界</i></b>Kee告诉MarketWatch……他说，最近的就业数据确实表明，物价上涨将“比之前想象的更严重……”。“降幅可能比25%严重得多，<b><i>如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者习以为常的快速反弹将不会发生</i></b>基说。“SPX SPX (^GSPC) 的公允价值倍数不是 30 倍，而是 35 倍。更像是 15 倍.”投资者对自然风险意识的回归--而目前这种意识严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划正在全面发挥作用，投资者根本感觉不到任何风险。这才是最危险的!”基说……”<b><i>当大买家不在的时候…那就是对风险的自然感知回来的时候，如果发生这种情况…小心下面!!</i></b>“你看，不断上升的通货膨胀有能力让美联储屈服。我一直在写的那种通货膨胀会让美联储失去魔力，这就是为什么鲍威尔已经在竭尽全力让金融市场相信美联储<i>想要</i>更高的通胀，并让他们相信它想要的更高通胀在开始之前是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Market susceptibility</p><p><blockquote>市场敏感性</blockquote></p><p>Notes Lance Roberts,</p><p><blockquote>兰斯·罗伯茨指出，</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b><i>There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market,</i></b>&nbsp;but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” <i>Seeking Alpha</i>How much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?</p><p><blockquote><b><i>这轮牛市不可能不会以非常糟糕的方式结束。我们都知道这是这个流动性驱动的市场的现实，</i></b>但我们继续投资是为了 “害怕错过 ”。<i>寻求阿尔法</i>美联储和联储涌入市场的所有刺激资金究竟创造了多少现金流，使去年的疯狂成为可能？</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.</p><p><blockquote>过去5个月，流入股市的资金比过去12年的总和还要多。算一算，问问自己，如果因为通货膨胀迫使美联储在商品太少的环境下停止创造太多的新货币，而不得不关闭货币，会发生什么，因为之前的 COVID 关闭短缺以及它们造成的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p>And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):</p><p><blockquote>而且，如果你不认为市场在轻松货币的推动下岌岌可危，那就看看保证金债务（欠经纪人的钱）上涨了多少：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca87d635f36dfaa1c989d7e459550d1\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>When the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储面临加息和停止印钞的巨大压力时，经纪人在放贷时就不会那么自由了。目前，几乎免费的利率很容易赚钱。不过，更重要的是，当市场因担心美联储切断宽松货币而开始下跌时，随着人们被迫出售资产并减少保证金债务，所有保证金债务都开始匆忙解除。</blockquote></p><p>As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，像这样的市场债务的巨大、快速飙升往往发生在严重崩溃之前：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff13864e0443e2a448952529cdf6e2c\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.</p><p><blockquote>短期来看，基本面并不重要。然而，从长远来看，它们非常重要。情绪可能会导致投资者在很长一段时间内忽视经济基本面，但在高利润率债务环境下，对长期被忽视的基本面看法的突然改变会导致人们的参照系迅速修正。</blockquote></p><p>Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者忽视了基本面，预期经济和盈利将改善，以证明市场高估是合理的。这不太可能发生。即使确实如此，从今天的冲击来看，大多数圈子里对金融格局（货币的核心价值）的看法也过于乐观；但你可以在一年后看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的言论就好像它仍然看不到未来会发生什么，但这正是美联储谈论紧缩政策将有多容易。它似乎并不知道自己没有一个不会导致市场情绪急剧下跌并导致市场崩溃的退出计划。然而，这一点，也可以被那些没有在美德神父脚下敬拜的人看到。</blockquote></p><p>When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&amp;P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>当或如果复苏预期落空，市场将开始重新定价其内在价值。鉴于市场目前的交易价格是潜在经济增长水平的两倍多，而潜在经济增长是企业利润的来源，这表明存在重大风险。这就是为什么道琼斯指数今天下跌 682 点（2%），标准普尔指数下跌 2.14%，纳斯达克指数下跌 368 点（2.67%）。股票中没有太多的安全空间。</blockquote></p><p>Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.</p><p><blockquote>别告诉我通货膨胀对这个市场无关紧要。六个月来最糟糕的一天。更多详情请见另一篇赞助人帖子。</blockquote></p><p>Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我再一次做我所说的此时必不可少的纠正性报告。首先，假新闻：</blockquote></p><p>One big reason for the acceleration was&nbsp; <i>base effects</i>&nbsp;– at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,</p><p><blockquote>加速的一个重要原因是<i>基底效应</i>- 一年前的这个时候，经济受到了科维德大流行病最严重的打击，通货膨胀率异常低。正如我在上一篇赞助人帖子中所说，我还列出了支持我声明的统计数据和来源，</blockquote></p><p>Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:</p><p><blockquote>尽管有疫情，食品价格和许多其他价格像去年3月一样上涨。事实上，在 3 月份之后，它们的涨幅比正常水平更差，2020 年剩余时间里，每个月的年化涨幅都在 3.5% 到 4% 之间。“通胀海啸警报正在尖叫!”我特别注意到一位经济学家说，食品杂货和燃料现在刚刚弥补了上一次的涨幅：</blockquote></p><p>So,&nbsp; <i>like groceries,</i>&nbsp;gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that&nbsp;<i>fuel</i>&nbsp;prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but&nbsp;<i>groceries</i>? Come on!</p><p><blockquote>所以，<i>比如杂货，</i>天然气正在赶上，回到我们实际期望的地方…去年主要发生的事情是<i>燃料</i>由于没有运输任何东西，缺乏假期和通勤，价格暴跌，但是<i>杂货</i>?快点!</blockquote></p><p></p><p>“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.<b><i>So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of facts</i></b><b>if</b><b><i>&nbsp;the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如果你回顾一下 2018 年的汽油价格，“迎头赶上 ”可能是真的，但当你在评论中拥抱杂货时，这完全是马粪。杂货店什么都赶不上。2020年全年食品的平均通货膨胀率为3.4%，而2011年之前每年的平均通货膨胀率为0.3%-2.5%。3.6%。虽然去年4月至6月的总体通胀率低于正常水平，但这与今年有什么关系？【总体】去年价格仍在上涨；因此，这并不是说你在与一个异常的年份进行比较，因为在那几个月里，整体价格都在下跌，这意味着今年的部分涨幅只是弥补了去年不寻常的损失。然后你可以如实地说有一个基数效应。<b><i>因此，通胀的到来比美联储让人们相信的要快得多；而且，正如我最近的赞助人帖子所说，生产者方面已经酝酿了更多的通货膨胀，这些通货膨胀肯定会被传递出去。我注意到你可以期待看到这一点现在开始出现在消费者方面，而你确实做到了。这将是一个通胀高涨的夏天，这可能会影响市场情绪，因此股市不会对此感到满意。可以肯定的是，无论如何，仍有大量的睾丸激素决心推高股票，但炎热潮湿的夏天将削弱这种情绪，就像今天一样；无论图表读者根据当前的情绪趋势做出什么预测，它都将继续改变它。面对事实，趋势可能会迅速改变</i></b><b>如果</b><b><i>事实以足够的活力撞击。我认为，高通胀是一个令人担忧的事实，它可能会阻止美联储的计划向前推进。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储确实继续以同样的盲目无知和顽固决心证明自己是正确的，这导致它继续推行经济紧缩制度（正如我在2018年声称的那样，它会这样做太久，与良好的判断相反），它真的会让事情变得更糟，更难驯服。我认为这并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p>“ <b><i>There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,</i></b>” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,</p><p><blockquote>“<b><i>有些人认为美联储不仅落后于曲线，他们可能没有抓住要点，当他们开始追赶时，已经太晚了、</i></b>华尔街资深人士阿特·卡申周三在接受CNBC采访时表示，</blockquote></p><p>“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.&nbsp; <b><i>“It’s just that there’s a</i></b> <b>lot more</b> <b><i>&nbsp;‘transitory’ than they were expecting.</i></b>”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?</p><p><blockquote>“凯投宏观（Capital Economics）美国高级经济学家迈克尔-皮尔斯（Michael Pearce）写道：”我们怀疑这份报告是否会改变官员们的观点，即通胀压力'在很大程度上是暂时的'。<b><i>“只是有一个</i></b><b>更多</b><b><i>比他们预期的要'短暂'。</i></b>“CNBC确实。更多。当他们用完了一个假的基地效应来指责它时，他们会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p>Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!</p><p><blockquote>喜欢吗？花点时间在Patreon上支持大卫·哈吉斯!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说在通货膨胀完全到来之前，没有其他方法可以做到这一点，只是说，如果其他方法都做不到，我一直在写的那种通货膨胀肯定会做到这一点。这就是让市场感到恐惧的原因，这可能不是一些投资者首先想到的原因。</blockquote></p><p>Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.</p><p><blockquote>许多人都在谈论投资股票的 “风险溢价”。随着通货膨胀上升，债券收益率上升以抵消通货膨胀造成的损失。随着债券收益率上升，股票的竞争力下降。</blockquote></p><p>That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.</p><p><blockquote>这是个问题，但不是大问题。这次不行。</blockquote></p><p>The big&nbsp;problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是，我们都知道股票的资金来源——美联储和美国政府通过借入和分配美联储印制的货币。所以，最大的问题是美联储。</blockquote></p><p><b>Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储陷入了自己造成的混乱</b></blockquote></p><p>Having made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.</p><p><blockquote>美联储已经证明高通胀已成定局，用不了多久，美联储就会陷入一个陷阱：它需要继续创造货币，以保持市场上涨并继续刺激经济，但它将无法做到这一点。这就是为什么我们现在不断听到美联储在谈论通货膨胀是 “短暂的”。美联储需要让所有投资者相信通货膨胀迅速出现的时期将是短暂的，因此可以忽略不计。美联储需要市场相信它能够并且将会继续印钞。</blockquote></p><p>However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储只是在自欺欺人。它声称通货膨胀是暂时的，以便可以忽略快速增长的数字，通货膨胀就会越失控，因为美联储和联邦政府继续印钞和运输货币的装甲车昼夜不停地行驶。（当然，这是比喻。）</blockquote></p><p>The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会欺骗自己（和我们）的长期伤害，但它不太可能欺骗市场太久，因为这些数字将变得太高，市场无法忽视。周三，我们从市场对多年来最高通胀率消息的反应中看到了这一点--4 月份的年化通胀率为 4.2%，远低于我们今年夏天即将看到的通胀率水平。这只是球场的收尾。</blockquote></p><p><b>How inflation will fight the Fed and win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀将如何对抗美联储并取得胜利</b></blockquote></p><p>The danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀带来的危险是，如果它上升到我确信它会上涨的高度（两位数），那么美联储将被迫提高利率目标，因为市场无论如何都会推高利率，使美联储看起来很愚蠢，因为它声称利率目标是它无法持有的。美联储将无法在不通过创造新货币造成更大通胀的情况下不惜一切代价压低利率。</blockquote></p><p>However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不仅仅是债券义务警员将从美联储手中夺走利率控制权，股市还将迫使美联储应对通货膨胀，因为无论美联储是否表示应该这样做。消费者还将向国会施压，要求美联储应对通货膨胀。拖延的时间越长，美联储就必须大幅提高利率，就像保罗-沃尔克（Paul Volker）在 80 年代为控制通胀所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p>This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.</p><p><blockquote>在股市处于荒谬危险的高度之际，这个难题现在开始成为现实。对通货膨胀的模糊认识不再那么模糊，这就是为什么市场正在耗尽动力。投资者开始相信美联储将失去对利率的控制。投资者开始怀疑美联储的信心。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>当然，要崩盘，势头必须向下，而在市场确信美联储将失去控制之前，这种情况不太可能发生；但这种情况一开始可能会缓慢发生，然后像 2018 年那样迅速发生。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀是美联储背上的一颗定时炸弹。我的论点是，现在每个月，美联储都会发现越来越难维持一种幻觉，即它可以继续创造货币，通过政府刺激计划（应政府要求）将货币注入夫妻俩投资者（散户投资者、罗宾汉人群等）手中，并继续试图保持低利率，通过贷款资助的公司股票回购将资金注入股市。通货膨胀将压垮宽松货币。它统治。美联储可以控制它，但只能通过拿走资金并摧毁完全依赖资金的市场。</blockquote></p><p>The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.</p><p><blockquote>盘子旋转器开始失去对所有盘子的控制，它必须在小棒的末端保持旋转。今天的市场走势表明，随着通胀比投资者担心的更糟糕，市场开始关注板块下跌的声音。这个<i>真的</i>恐惧——直到现在才被预示的深度瘫痪恐惧——不是来自债券收益率上升的竞争（这肯定会到来），而是通胀将变得足够热，以至于美联储将被迫关闭所有的动力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀有能力突然改变市场情绪，因为，嗯，跟随资金回到它的来源。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. <i>MarketWatch</i>Inflation jitters will become inflation&nbsp;<i>panic</i>&nbsp;when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>一份报告显示，随着新冠疫情的复苏，截至 4 月份的一年中，美国通胀率以约 13 年来最快的速度上升，通胀担忧再次蔓延，股市大幅走低。<i>市场观察</i>通货膨胀恐慌将变成通货膨胀<i>恐慌</i>当人们清楚地认识到，升至 4.2 不仅仅是昙花一现，而是未来许多步骤中消费者方面的第一步时。希望我的读者都没有太关注那些预测只有3.6%的经济学家。</blockquote></p><p>“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.&nbsp; <b><i>But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.</i></b>”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀摧毁财富。Incapital 交易主管帕特里克-利里（Patrick Leary）在接受 MarketWatch 采访时说：”通货膨胀摧毁财富。“我们看到通货膨胀出现在市场上。如果通货膨胀确实是暂时的，市场就能忍受通货膨胀。<b><i>但如果不是暂时的，那就会成为股市的麻烦。</i></b>“财富的毁灭是一个问题，但我认为，更大的问题是亚马逊规模的轻松资金流入市场的流失。这就是为什么当就业报告真的很糟糕时，市场上涨了。就业放缓的报告缓解了对通胀的担忧，导致美联储关闭了这一流动。这就是为什么市场今天因与许多人预期相反的可靠消息而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten,<i>&nbsp;regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.</i></p><p><blockquote>美联储的手可能很快就会被现实所迫；如果你一直在阅读这里--尤其是《赞助人》中那些重点关注通货膨胀的帖子，你就会对即将发生的事情有一个很好的了解。然而，人们不必等到美联储收紧货币政策才能阻止通货膨胀；人们只需等到股票投资者确信美联储将不得不收紧货币政策，<i>无论美联储声称向投资者保证什么，它都不会。</i></blockquote></p><p>As&nbsp;<i>MarketWatch</i>&nbsp;noted yesterday,</p><p><blockquote>作为<i>市场观察</i>昨天指出，</blockquote></p><p>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,&nbsp; <b><i>as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</i></b>&nbsp;After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear&nbsp; <b><i>Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.</i></b>The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.</p><p><blockquote>周二股市看起来很危险，尤其是科技领域，<b><i>随着通胀紧张情绪继续波及整个市场。由于担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束因 COVID-19 大流行病而采取的宽松立场，该行业一直首当其冲。</i></b>继上周就业意外之后，一些人感到担忧<b><i>周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。</i></b>市场在自己的负担下不堪重负和紧张，以至于如果它仅仅相信美联储将被迫收紧货币政策，它就会崩溃。这就是为什么它今天会像预震一样震动，但如果你一直在阅读这里的内容，那就一点也不震动了。这是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Inflation is the “</i></b> <b>worst-case</b> <b><i>&nbsp;scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors,</i></b>&nbsp;warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the&nbsp;<i>key</i>:</p><p><blockquote><b><i>通货膨胀是“</i></b><b>最坏情况</b><b><i>对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场，</i></b>Stock Traders Daily 总裁兼首席执行官兼 Equity Logic 投资组合经理 Thomas H. Kee Jr. 警告我们今天的看涨期权。这是<i>钥匙</i>:</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.&nbsp; <b><i>If inflation comes back,</i></b> <b>all</b> <b><i>&nbsp;of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be</i></b> <b>able</b> <b><i>&nbsp;to come back to save the day</i></b>,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and <b><i>&nbsp;if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen</i></b>&nbsp;either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ <b><i>When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!</i></b>”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed&nbsp;<i>wants</i>&nbsp;higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施之所以成为可能，唯一的原因就是没有通货膨胀。<b><i>如果通货膨胀再次出现，</i></b><b>全部</b><b><i>投资者获得的保障措施（刺激措施带来的免费资金）将被取消，并且不会……</i></b><b>能</b><b><i>回来拯救世界</i></b>Kee告诉MarketWatch……他说，最近的就业数据确实表明，物价上涨将“比之前想象的更严重……”。“降幅可能比25%严重得多，<b><i>如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者习以为常的快速反弹将不会发生</i></b>基说。“SPX SPX (^GSPC) 的公允价值倍数不是 30 倍，而是 35 倍。更像是 15 倍.”投资者对自然风险意识的回归--而目前这种意识严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划正在全面发挥作用，投资者根本感觉不到任何风险。这才是最危险的!”基说……”<b><i>当大买家不在的时候…那就是对风险的自然感知回来的时候，如果发生这种情况…小心下面!!</i></b>“你看，不断上升的通货膨胀有能力让美联储屈服。我一直在写的那种通货膨胀会让美联储失去魔力，这就是为什么鲍威尔已经在竭尽全力让金融市场相信美联储<i>想要</i>更高的通胀，并让他们相信它想要的更高通胀在开始之前是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Market susceptibility</p><p><blockquote>市场敏感性</blockquote></p><p>Notes Lance Roberts,</p><p><blockquote>兰斯·罗伯茨指出，</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b><i>There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market,</i></b>&nbsp;but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” <i>Seeking Alpha</i>How much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?</p><p><blockquote><b><i>这轮牛市不可能不会以非常糟糕的方式结束。我们都知道这是这个流动性驱动的市场的现实，</i></b>但我们继续投资是为了 “害怕错过 ”。<i>寻求阿尔法</i>美联储和联储涌入市场的所有刺激资金究竟创造了多少现金流，使去年的疯狂成为可能？</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.</p><p><blockquote>过去5个月，流入股市的资金比过去12年的总和还要多。算一算，问问自己，如果因为通货膨胀迫使美联储在商品太少的环境下停止创造太多的新货币，而不得不关闭货币，会发生什么，因为之前的 COVID 关闭短缺以及它们造成的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p>And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):</p><p><blockquote>而且，如果你不认为市场在轻松货币的推动下岌岌可危，那就看看保证金债务（欠经纪人的钱）上涨了多少：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca87d635f36dfaa1c989d7e459550d1\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>When the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储面临加息和停止印钞的巨大压力时，经纪人在放贷时就不会那么自由了。目前，几乎免费的利率很容易赚钱。不过，更重要的是，当市场因担心美联储切断宽松货币而开始下跌时，随着人们被迫出售资产并减少保证金债务，所有保证金债务都开始匆忙解除。</blockquote></p><p>As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，像这样的市场债务的巨大、快速飙升往往发生在严重崩溃之前：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff13864e0443e2a448952529cdf6e2c\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.</p><p><blockquote>短期来看，基本面并不重要。然而，从长远来看，它们非常重要。情绪可能会导致投资者在很长一段时间内忽视经济基本面，但在高利润率债务环境下，对长期被忽视的基本面看法的突然改变会导致人们的参照系迅速修正。</blockquote></p><p>Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者忽视了基本面，预期经济和盈利将改善，以证明市场高估是合理的。这不太可能发生。即使确实如此，从今天的冲击来看，大多数圈子里对金融格局（货币的核心价值）的看法也过于乐观；但你可以在一年后看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的言论就好像它仍然看不到未来会发生什么，但这正是美联储谈论紧缩政策将有多容易。它似乎并不知道自己没有一个不会导致市场情绪急剧下跌并导致市场崩溃的退出计划。然而，这一点，也可以被那些没有在美德神父脚下敬拜的人看到。</blockquote></p><p>When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&amp;P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>当或如果复苏预期落空，市场将开始重新定价其内在价值。鉴于市场目前的交易价格是潜在经济增长水平的两倍多，而潜在经济增长是企业利润的来源，这表明存在重大风险。这就是为什么道琼斯指数今天下跌 682 点（2%），标准普尔指数下跌 2.14%，纳斯达克指数下跌 368 点（2.67%）。股票中没有太多的安全空间。</blockquote></p><p>Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.</p><p><blockquote>别告诉我通货膨胀对这个市场无关紧要。六个月来最糟糕的一天。更多详情请见另一篇赞助人帖子。</blockquote></p><p>Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我再一次做我所说的此时必不可少的纠正性报告。首先，假新闻：</blockquote></p><p>One big reason for the acceleration was&nbsp; <i>base effects</i>&nbsp;– at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,</p><p><blockquote>加速的一个重要原因是<i>基底效应</i>- 一年前的这个时候，经济受到了科维德大流行病最严重的打击，通货膨胀率异常低。正如我在上一篇赞助人帖子中所说，我还列出了支持我声明的统计数据和来源，</blockquote></p><p>Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:</p><p><blockquote>尽管有疫情，食品价格和许多其他价格像去年3月一样上涨。事实上，在 3 月份之后，它们的涨幅比正常水平更差，2020 年剩余时间里，每个月的年化涨幅都在 3.5% 到 4% 之间。“通胀海啸警报正在尖叫!”我特别注意到一位经济学家说，食品杂货和燃料现在刚刚弥补了上一次的涨幅：</blockquote></p><p>So,&nbsp; <i>like groceries,</i>&nbsp;gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that&nbsp;<i>fuel</i>&nbsp;prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but&nbsp;<i>groceries</i>? Come on!</p><p><blockquote>所以，<i>比如杂货，</i>天然气正在赶上，回到我们实际期望的地方…去年主要发生的事情是<i>燃料</i>由于没有运输任何东西，缺乏假期和通勤，价格暴跌，但是<i>杂货</i>?快点!</blockquote></p><p></p><p>“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.<b><i>So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of facts</i></b><b>if</b><b><i>&nbsp;the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如果你回顾一下 2018 年的汽油价格，“迎头赶上 ”可能是真的，但当你在评论中拥抱杂货时，这完全是马粪。杂货店什么都赶不上。2020年全年食品的平均通货膨胀率为3.4%，而2011年之前每年的平均通货膨胀率为0.3%-2.5%。3.6%。虽然去年4月至6月的总体通胀率低于正常水平，但这与今年有什么关系？【总体】去年价格仍在上涨；因此，这并不是说你在与一个异常的年份进行比较，因为在那几个月里，整体价格都在下跌，这意味着今年的部分涨幅只是弥补了去年不寻常的损失。然后你可以如实地说有一个基数效应。<b><i>因此，通胀的到来比美联储让人们相信的要快得多；而且，正如我最近的赞助人帖子所说，生产者方面已经酝酿了更多的通货膨胀，这些通货膨胀肯定会被传递出去。我注意到你可以期待看到这一点现在开始出现在消费者方面，而你确实做到了。这将是一个通胀高涨的夏天，这可能会影响市场情绪，因此股市不会对此感到满意。可以肯定的是，无论如何，仍有大量的睾丸激素决心推高股票，但炎热潮湿的夏天将削弱这种情绪，就像今天一样；无论图表读者根据当前的情绪趋势做出什么预测，它都将继续改变它。面对事实，趋势可能会迅速改变</i></b><b>如果</b><b><i>事实以足够的活力撞击。我认为，高通胀是一个令人担忧的事实，它可能会阻止美联储的计划向前推进。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储确实继续以同样的盲目无知和顽固决心证明自己是正确的，这导致它继续推行经济紧缩制度（正如我在2018年声称的那样，它会这样做太久，与良好的判断相反），它真的会让事情变得更糟，更难驯服。我认为这并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p>“ <b><i>There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,</i></b>” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,</p><p><blockquote>“<b><i>有些人认为美联储不仅落后于曲线，他们可能没有抓住要点，当他们开始追赶时，已经太晚了、</i></b>华尔街资深人士阿特·卡申周三在接受CNBC采访时表示，</blockquote></p><p>“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.&nbsp; <b><i>“It’s just that there’s a</i></b> <b>lot more</b> <b><i>&nbsp;‘transitory’ than they were expecting.</i></b>”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?</p><p><blockquote>“凯投宏观（Capital Economics）美国高级经济学家迈克尔-皮尔斯（Michael Pearce）写道：”我们怀疑这份报告是否会改变官员们的观点，即通胀压力'在很大程度上是暂时的'。<b><i>“只是有一个</i></b><b>更多</b><b><i>比他们预期的要'短暂'。</i></b>“CNBC确实。更多。当他们用完了一个假的基地效应来指责它时，他们会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p>Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!</p><p><blockquote>喜欢吗？花点时间在Patreon上支持大卫·哈吉斯!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-12/inflation-will-kill-stock-market\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-12/inflation-will-kill-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134419676","content_text":"I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.The big problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own makingHaving made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.How inflation will fight the Fed and winThe danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The real fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. MarketWatchInflation jitters will become inflation panic when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.  But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten, regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.As MarketWatch noted yesterday,Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,  as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance. After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear  Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.Inflation is the “ worst-case  scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the key:“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.  If inflation comes back, all  of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able  to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and  if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed wants higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.Market susceptibilityNotes Lance Roberts,There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market, but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” Seeking AlphaHow much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):Seeking AlphaWhen the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:Seeking AlphaIn the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:One big reason for the acceleration was  base effects – at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:So,  like groceries, gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that fuel prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but groceries? Come on!“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of factsif the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.“ There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.  “It’s just that there’s a lot more  ‘transitory’ than they were expecting.”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}