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egtan

egtan

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2021-03-19

Hmmm.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-01

Comment please

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-28

Oh no

HP Falls On Warning Chip Shortage May Hurt Supplies<blockquote>惠普因警告芯片短缺可能损害供应而下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-25

Comment this

Li Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚新政是支撑长江资产股价的最新举措</blockquote>

2021-06-18

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$[白眼]

2021-03-22

Like

The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>

2021-03-14

Yes.

US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Like for points

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-18

Hopefully tml will be better

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-13

Comment plz

Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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.","listText":"Hmm .","text":"Hmm .","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160639440","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160005909,"gmtCreate":1623765738501,"gmtModify":1634028658865,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm join the fray","listText":"Hmmm join the fray","text":"Hmmm join the fray","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160005909","repostId":"1180911259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180911259","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623765092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180911259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Blockchain stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>区块链股票早盘涨跌互现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180911259","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 15) Blockchain stocks mixed in morning trading.","content":"<p>(June&nbsp;15)&nbsp;Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;mixed&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月15日）区块链股早盘涨跌不一。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2add04248d60bb69c41121475aca5e34\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-15 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June&nbsp;15)&nbsp;Blockchain&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;mixed&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月15日）区块链股早盘涨跌不一。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2add04248d60bb69c41121475aca5e34\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EBON":"亿邦国际","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","CAN":"嘉楠科技","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","MARA":"MARA Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180911259","content_text":"(June 15) Blockchain stocks mixed in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EBON":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"MARA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119156123,"gmtCreate":1622530166862,"gmtModify":1634100770678,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go up","listText":"Go up","text":"Go 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please","listText":"Comment please","text":"Comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101388172","repostId":"1142063705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134112436,"gmtCreate":1622211107425,"gmtModify":1634182794293,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134112436","repostId":"1143584507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143584507","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622210956,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143584507?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"HP Falls On Warning Chip Shortage May Hurt Supplies<blockquote>惠普因警告芯片短缺可能损害供应而下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143584507","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Shares of HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) fell by more than 8% as the company’s warning that the semiconductor chi","content":"<p>Shares of HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) fell by more than 8%&nbsp;as the company’s warning that the semiconductor chip shortage would limit its ability to supply personal computing devices and printers at least until the end of the year overshadowed its robust quarterly earnings.</p><p><blockquote>惠普公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）股价下跌超过8%，该公司警告称，半导体芯片短缺将限制其至少在年底前供应个人计算设备和打印机的能力，这掩盖了其强劲的季度收益。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b2133d316e99117f646de1446db8c4\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Not&nbsp;with&nbsp;standing shortage of raw materials that go into devices, the maker of desktops, laptops, printers and other IT peripherals retains a bullish outlook about the overall demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于设备原材料持续短缺，这家台式机、笔记本电脑、打印机和其他IT外围设备制造商对整体需求保持乐观前景。</blockquote></p><p>But the company’s caution only added to what many have been fearing and that is that sales of its PCs might have peaked. The contention is that increasing vaccinations will bring more people back into their offices, diluting the need for personal computers as they no longer work from home.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的谨慎只是加剧了许多人的担忧，那就是其个人电脑的销量可能已经见顶。争论的焦点是，增加疫苗接种将使更多的人回到办公室，稀释对个人电脑的需求，因为他们不再在家工作。</blockquote></p><p>According to TheStreet, analysts atCitigroup(NYSE:C) pointed to HP not getting “… the full sales upside to flow through the EPS,” which “will likely raise a new question for investors: “Is this the peak?”</p><p><blockquote>据TheStreet报道，花旗集团（纽约证券交易所股票代码：C）的分析师指出，惠普没有“……通过每股收益实现全部销售上涨”，这“可能会给投资者提出一个新问题：“这是峰值吗？”</blockquote></p><p>Still, Citigroup has a buy rating on the stock and a year’s target of $40, TheStreet said. This is approximately 25% higher from its last close of $32.10.</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet表示，花旗集团仍对该股给予买入评级，一年目标为40美元。这比上次收盘价32.10美元高出约25%。</blockquote></p><p>HP reported second quarter non-GAAP diluted net EPS of $0.93 on revenue of $15.9 billion which rose 27.3% from a year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>惠普公布第二季度非GAAP摊薄后净每股收益为0.93美元，营收为159亿美元，同比增长27.3%。</blockquote></p><p>For the third quarter, HP estimates non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.81 to $0.85.</p><p><blockquote>惠普预计第三季度非GAAP摊薄后净每股收益在0.81美元至0.85美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>For fiscal 2021, non-GAAP diluted net EPS is seen between $3.40 and $3.50.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年，非GAAP摊薄净每股收益预计在3.40美元至3.50美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HP Falls On Warning Chip Shortage May Hurt Supplies<blockquote>惠普因警告芯片短缺可能损害供应而下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHP Falls On Warning Chip Shortage May Hurt Supplies<blockquote>惠普因警告芯片短缺可能损害供应而下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-28 22:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) fell by more than 8%&nbsp;as the company’s warning that the semiconductor chip shortage would limit its ability to supply personal computing devices and printers at least until the end of the year overshadowed its robust quarterly earnings.</p><p><blockquote>惠普公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）股价下跌超过8%，该公司警告称，半导体芯片短缺将限制其至少在年底前供应个人计算设备和打印机的能力，这掩盖了其强劲的季度收益。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b2133d316e99117f646de1446db8c4\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Not&nbsp;with&nbsp;standing shortage of raw materials that go into devices, the maker of desktops, laptops, printers and other IT peripherals retains a bullish outlook about the overall demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于设备原材料持续短缺，这家台式机、笔记本电脑、打印机和其他IT外围设备制造商对整体需求保持乐观前景。</blockquote></p><p>But the company’s caution only added to what many have been fearing and that is that sales of its PCs might have peaked. The contention is that increasing vaccinations will bring more people back into their offices, diluting the need for personal computers as they no longer work from home.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的谨慎只是加剧了许多人的担忧，那就是其个人电脑的销量可能已经见顶。争论的焦点是，增加疫苗接种将使更多的人回到办公室，稀释对个人电脑的需求，因为他们不再在家工作。</blockquote></p><p>According to TheStreet, analysts atCitigroup(NYSE:C) pointed to HP not getting “… the full sales upside to flow through the EPS,” which “will likely raise a new question for investors: “Is this the peak?”</p><p><blockquote>据TheStreet报道，花旗集团（纽约证券交易所股票代码：C）的分析师指出，惠普没有“……通过每股收益实现全部销售上涨”，这“可能会给投资者提出一个新问题：“这是峰值吗？”</blockquote></p><p>Still, Citigroup has a buy rating on the stock and a year’s target of $40, TheStreet said. This is approximately 25% higher from its last close of $32.10.</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet表示，花旗集团仍对该股给予买入评级，一年目标为40美元。这比上次收盘价32.10美元高出约25%。</blockquote></p><p>HP reported second quarter non-GAAP diluted net EPS of $0.93 on revenue of $15.9 billion which rose 27.3% from a year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>惠普公布第二季度非GAAP摊薄后净每股收益为0.93美元，营收为159亿美元，同比增长27.3%。</blockquote></p><p>For the third quarter, HP estimates non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.81 to $0.85.</p><p><blockquote>惠普预计第三季度非GAAP摊薄后净每股收益在0.81美元至0.85美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>For fiscal 2021, non-GAAP diluted net EPS is seen between $3.40 and $3.50.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年，非GAAP摊薄净每股收益预计在3.40美元至3.50美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HPQ":"惠普"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143584507","content_text":"Shares of HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) fell by more than 8% as the company’s warning that the semiconductor chip shortage would limit its ability to supply personal computing devices and printers at least until the end of the year overshadowed its robust quarterly earnings.Not with standing shortage of raw materials that go into devices, the maker of desktops, laptops, printers and other IT peripherals retains a bullish outlook about the overall demand.But the company’s caution only added to what many have been fearing and that is that sales of its PCs might have peaked. The contention is that increasing vaccinations will bring more people back into their offices, diluting the need for personal computers as they no longer work from home.According to TheStreet, analysts atCitigroup(NYSE:C) pointed to HP not getting “… the full sales upside to flow through the EPS,” which “will likely raise a new question for investors: “Is this the peak?”Still, Citigroup has a buy rating on the stock and a year’s target of $40, TheStreet said. This is approximately 25% higher from its last close of $32.10.HP reported second quarter non-GAAP diluted net EPS of $0.93 on revenue of $15.9 billion which rose 27.3% from a year-ago period.For the third quarter, HP estimates non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.81 to $0.85.For fiscal 2021, non-GAAP diluted net EPS is seen between $3.40 and $3.50.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HPQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358072664,"gmtCreate":1616645784558,"gmtModify":1634524750903,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment this","listText":"Comment this","text":"Comment this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358072664","repostId":"1118856005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118856005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616641208,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118856005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 11:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Li Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚新政是支撑长江资产股价的最新举措</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118856005","media":"bloomberg","summary":"Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the ","content":"<p>Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.</p><p><blockquote>香港亿万富翁李嘉诚和他的长子李嘉诚正在加大力度提振家族企业CK Asset Holdings Ltd.的股价，此前个人斥资44亿港元（合5.66亿美元）购买该公司股票未能扭转股价暴跌的局面。</blockquote></p><p> Li’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.</p><p><blockquote>李嘉诚的慈善机构李嘉诚基金会正在以170亿港元的股票向长江实业出售持有英国和荷兰基础设施业务股份的四家公司。为避免稀释现有股东，公司将以较前收盘价溢价8.4%的价格从市场上回购相同数量的股份。</blockquote></p><p> By undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>长江实业希望通过进行约两年半来的首次回购，提振自2019年初以来已下跌超过16%的股价，而基准恒生指数则上涨了8%。</blockquote></p><p> CK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>李氏家族长江集团(CK Group)的房地产旗舰长江实业(CK Asset)的房地产开发、飞机租赁和酒吧运营等业务在2019年年中开始的香港反北京抗议活动以及冠状病毒大流行之后遭受重创。长江实业没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”</p><p><blockquote>大和资本市场分析师乔纳斯·坎(Jonas Kan)在公告发布后的一份报告中表示，“这笔交易的一个关键信息是，CKA不会放弃”回购。“如果CKA未来更加积极地回购，我们不会感到惊讶，这将支撑其股价。”</blockquote></p><p> The shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>交易宣布后的第二天，该公司股价飙升7.2%。此后，它们抹去了部分涨幅，与恒生指数更广泛的下跌一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a006d1652c46f3d8e915d216590742\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步增加交易的甜头，基金会将确保长江实业今明两年从基建资产中获得至少9.1亿港元的股息、利息和其他现金分配。该公司还承诺这两年的股息高于2020年支付的股息。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这笔交易让一些投资者质疑该公司的治理，该安排允许李氏家族将其在长江实业的股份从目前的36%增加到45%。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者本尼·钟(Benny Chung)周一在网上发布的专栏中表示，他减持的部分原因是该交易似乎以牺牲少数股东的利益为代价增加了家族的控制权。他表示，尽管存在回购溢价，但每股51港元的报价仍较公司资产净值折价47%。</blockquote></p><p> “The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”</p><p><blockquote>银河联昌分析师Raymond Cheng表示：“该家族正在以相当大的折扣间接增持长江实业。”“一些股东对此不太高兴。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚新政是支撑长江资产股价的最新举措</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Ka-shing’s New Deal is Latest Effort to Prop Up CK Asset Share Price<blockquote>李嘉诚新政是支撑长江资产股价的最新举措</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.</p><p><blockquote>香港亿万富翁李嘉诚和他的长子李嘉诚正在加大力度提振家族企业CK Asset Holdings Ltd.的股价，此前个人斥资44亿港元（合5.66亿美元）购买该公司股票未能扭转股价暴跌的局面。</blockquote></p><p> Li’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.</p><p><blockquote>李嘉诚的慈善机构李嘉诚基金会正在以170亿港元的股票向长江实业出售持有英国和荷兰基础设施业务股份的四家公司。为避免稀释现有股东，公司将以较前收盘价溢价8.4%的价格从市场上回购相同数量的股份。</blockquote></p><p> By undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>长江实业希望通过进行约两年半来的首次回购，提振自2019年初以来已下跌超过16%的股价，而基准恒生指数则上涨了8%。</blockquote></p><p> CK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.</p><p><blockquote>李氏家族长江集团(CK Group)的房地产旗舰长江实业(CK Asset)的房地产开发、飞机租赁和酒吧运营等业务在2019年年中开始的香港反北京抗议活动以及冠状病毒大流行之后遭受重创。长江实业没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”</p><p><blockquote>大和资本市场分析师乔纳斯·坎(Jonas Kan)在公告发布后的一份报告中表示，“这笔交易的一个关键信息是，CKA不会放弃”回购。“如果CKA未来更加积极地回购，我们不会感到惊讶，这将支撑其股价。”</blockquote></p><p> The shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.</p><p><blockquote>交易宣布后的第二天，该公司股价飙升7.2%。此后，它们抹去了部分涨幅，与恒生指数更广泛的下跌一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a006d1652c46f3d8e915d216590742\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>为了进一步增加交易的甜头，基金会将确保长江实业今明两年从基建资产中获得至少9.1亿港元的股息、利息和其他现金分配。该公司还承诺这两年的股息高于2020年支付的股息。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这笔交易让一些投资者质疑该公司的治理，该安排允许李氏家族将其在长江实业的股份从目前的36%增加到45%。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者本尼·钟(Benny Chung)周一在网上发布的专栏中表示，他减持的部分原因是该交易似乎以牺牲少数股东的利益为代价增加了家族的控制权。他表示，尽管存在回购溢价，但每股51港元的报价仍较公司资产净值折价47%。</blockquote></p><p> “The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”</p><p><blockquote>银河联昌分析师Raymond Cheng表示：“该家族正在以相当大的折扣间接增持长江实业。”“一些股东对此不太高兴。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/li-s-new-deal-is-latest-effort-to-prop-up-ck-asset-share-price\">bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/li-s-new-deal-is-latest-effort-to-prop-up-ck-asset-share-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118856005","content_text":"Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his eldest son Victor Li are stepping up efforts to boost the stock of family businessCK Asset Holdings Ltd., after HK$4.4 billion ($566 million) of personal purchases of the company’s shares failed to reverse slumping prices.\nLi’s charity, theLi Ka Shing Foundation, is selling CK Asset four companies holding stakes in infrastructure operations in the U.K. and the Netherlands for HK$17 billion in stock. To avoid diluting current shareholders, the company will buy back the same amount of shares from the market at an 8.4% premium to the previous closing price.\nBy undertaking its first buyback in about 2 1/2-years, CK Asset is hoping to boost a share price that has slumped more than 16% since the start of 2019, compared with an 8% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.\nCK Asset, the real-estate flagship of the Li family’s CK Group, has seen its businesses including property development, aircraft leasing and pub operations hit hard after months of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong starting mid-2019 were followed by the coronavirus pandemic. CK Asset didn’t respond to requests for comment.\n“One key message of this deal is that CKA isn’t abandoning” buybacks, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jonas Kan said in a note following the announcement. “We will not be surprised if CKA turns more active in buybacks in the future, which shall be supportive for its share price.”\nThe shares surged 7.2% the day after the deal was announced. They have since erased some of those gains, in line with a broader decline in the Hang Seng Index.\n\nFurther sweetening the deal, the foundation will ensure CK Asset receives dividends, interest and other cash distributions from the infrastructure assets of at least HK$910 million both this year and next. The company also promises higher dividends for those two years than were paid in 2020.\nYet the deal has left some investors questioning the company’s governance, with the arrangement allowing the Li family to increase its stake in CK Asset to as much as 45% from 36% currently.\nIndividual investor Benny Chung reduced his holdings partly because the deal appears to have increased the family’s control at the expense of minority shareholders, he said in acolumnposted online Monday. Despite the buyback premium, the HK$51 per share offer is still a 47% discount to the company’s net asset value, he said.\n“The family is indirectly increasing its holding in CK Asset at quite a deep discount,” said analyst Raymond Cheng of CGS-CIMB. “Some shareholders aren’t very happy about that.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166762494,"gmtCreate":1624025577018,"gmtModify":1634023915637,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$</a>[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$[白眼]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68b5a366313e605c3cfdd469bdb06467","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166762494","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359167577,"gmtCreate":1616375058399,"gmtModify":1634526198934,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359167577","repostId":"1160065206","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160065206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616374606,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160065206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160065206","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHow","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li>  <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li>  <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间走低的前景正是股市想听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致美国收益率飙升。</li><li>较高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找援助之手？阅读市场的成员可以获得应对任何气候的独家想法和指导。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的东西，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长股和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也会效仿，因为市场上几乎没有“廉价”板块。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储将让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不满意。3月18日利率大幅上升，10年期国债收益率目前略低于1.75%。曲线继续抬升，因为债券市场担心火热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更快加息敞开了大门，也可能比预期快得多。这导致债券收益率推高。此外，随着另一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务进入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息一开始似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么可以取悦股市和债市。美联储选择安抚股市。但股价是由利率衍生出来的，随着利率上升，股价需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续以较低的水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&amp;P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期国债，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间持平。在现代历史上，在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&amp;P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&amp;P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前在1.44%左右，而且只是在世纪之交的另一个时期较低。而现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率会拉低标普500的股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自2010年以来，10年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价21个基点。目前为20个基点，这意味着从此时开始升至10年期高点可能会导致溢价扩大，或拖累标普500收益率与10年期国债收益率一起走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&amp;P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率的上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货再膨胀型股票。问题是已经没有便宜货了——没有“价值”贸易。便宜的股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面很弱。半年来，标普500价值ETF的前十大重仓股暴涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Name</td>    <td>Symbol</td>    <td>3/18/2021</td>    <td>10/31/2020</td>    <td>% Change</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td>    <td>XOM</td>    <td>58.25</td>    <td>$ 32.62</td>    <td>78.57%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td>    <td>BAC</td>    <td>39.9274</td>    <td>$ 23.70</td>    <td>68.47%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td>    <td>JPM</td>    <td>161.48</td>    <td>$ 98.04</td>    <td>64.71%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td>    <td>DIS</td>    <td>193.735</td>    <td>$ 121.25</td>    <td>59.78%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CHEVRON ORD</td>    <td>CVX</td>    <td>106.65</td>    <td>$ 69.50</td>    <td>53.45%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>INTEL ORD</td>    <td>INTC.O</td>    <td>64.98</td>    <td>$ 44.28</td>    <td>46.75%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td>    <td>BRKb</td>    <td>255.2</td>    <td>$ 201.90</td>    <td>26.40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JOHNSON &amp; JOHNSON ORD</td>    <td>JNJ</td>    <td>161.1501</td>    <td>$ 137.11</td>    <td>17.53%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AT&amp;T ORD</td>    <td>T</td>    <td>30.245</td>    <td>$ 27.02</td>    <td>11.94%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td>    <td>VZ</td>    <td>56.095</td>    <td>$ 56.99</td>    <td>-1.57%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚订单</td><td>XOM</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行订单</td><td>BAC</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通订单</td><td>JPM</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>迪斯尼秩序</td><td>说</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>雪佛龙订单</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔订单</td><td>INTC.O</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司CL B ORD</td><td>BRKb</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生订单</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>AT&amp;T订单</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也变得捉襟见肘，许多银行的交易价格处于历史高位，而且相对于10年期国债利率，该行业的交易估值自2017年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。工业部门相对于10年期利率只有一次如此昂贵，那是在2018年1月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源行业可能还存在一些价值。但这两个板块与其所代表的大宗商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，从而拖累这些行业走低。美元似乎准备升值。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心通胀，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率再次开始上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元，提振美元价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元上涨已经帮助油价脱离高点，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会持续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在突破66.50美元左右的关键阻力位后已经突破。此外，它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使该商品回到54美元。这很容易扭转能源行业的火爆局面。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意让它继续改善，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会越走强，相对来说，估值越高的股票就会增长，从而迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed May Have Just Sealed The Stock Market's Fate<blockquote>美联储可能刚刚决定了股市的命运</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-22 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.</li>  <li>However, that has sent US yields soaring.</li>  <li>The higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.</li>  <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li> </ul> The Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储尽可能长时间走低的前景正是股市想听到的。</li><li>然而，这导致美国收益率飙升。</li><li>较高的收益率将迫使股票估值大幅重新定价。</li><li>在市场上寻找援助之手？阅读市场的成员可以获得应对任何气候的独家想法和指导。</li></ul>美联储给了股市它想要的东西，尽可能长时间地走低。不幸的是，债券市场似乎并不高兴，这对股市来说将是一个可怕的消息。利率上升正在压垮成长股和科技股，很快市场的其他部分也会效仿，因为市场上几乎没有“廉价”板块。</blockquote></p><p> In essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.</p><p><blockquote>从本质上讲，美联储将让经济过热，而债券市场似乎对此一点也不满意。3月18日利率大幅上升，10年期国债收益率目前略低于1.75%。曲线继续抬升，因为债券市场担心火热的经济可能会迅速过热，导致价格上涨，通胀成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> It leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.</p><p><blockquote>这为美联储开始缩减债券购买规模并比预期更快加息敞开了大门，也可能比预期快得多。这导致债券收益率推高。此外，随着另一轮财政刺激计划的通过，大量债务进入市场，更多的供应将需要更多的需求。</blockquote></p><p> While the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这个消息一开始似乎是股市想听到的一切，但这并不是好消息。事实上，美联储在3月17日几乎没有什么可以取悦股市和债市。美联储选择安抚股市。但股价是由利率衍生出来的，随着利率上升，股价需要重新定价。他们一直在重新定价，并将继续以较低的水平重新定价。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&amp;P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，现在，相对于10年期国债，标普500的估值与2018年1月和2018年10月期间持平。在现代历史上，在这个低利率的世界里，该指数的相对价格从未如此昂贵。2008年，当我们从高利率转向低利率世界时，一切都发生了变化，所以1999年的时期不是一个公平的比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06eb49f0f96fe3d05081b17e0de7ca77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> From another angle, the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&amp;P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&amp;P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.</p><p><blockquote>从另一个角度来看，标普500的股息收益率目前在1.44%左右，而且只是在世纪之交的另一个时期较低。而现在，10年期国债的收益率再次高于标普500。那么随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率会拉低标普500的股息收益率吗？似乎有可能。自2010年以来，10年期国债的交易价格比标普500股息收益率溢价21个基点。目前为20个基点，这意味着从此时开始升至10年期高点可能会导致溢价扩大，或拖累标普500收益率与10年期国债收益率一起走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d0b5613b7b88e02f76e004aededbcaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&amp;P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场收益率的上升促使投资者将注意力从成长型和科技股重新转向价值型和通货再膨胀型股票。问题是已经没有便宜货了——没有“价值”贸易。便宜的股票便宜是有原因的，因为它们的基本面很弱。半年来，标普500价值ETF的前十大重仓股暴涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Name</td>    <td>Symbol</td>    <td>3/18/2021</td>    <td>10/31/2020</td>    <td>% Change</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EXXON MOBIL ORD</td>    <td>XOM</td>    <td>58.25</td>    <td>$ 32.62</td>    <td>78.57%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BANK OF AMERICA ORD</td>    <td>BAC</td>    <td>39.9274</td>    <td>$ 23.70</td>    <td>68.47%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JPMORGAN CHASE ORD</td>    <td>JPM</td>    <td>161.48</td>    <td>$ 98.04</td>    <td>64.71%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>WALT DISNEY ORD</td>    <td>DIS</td>    <td>193.735</td>    <td>$ 121.25</td>    <td>59.78%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>CHEVRON ORD</td>    <td>CVX</td>    <td>106.65</td>    <td>$ 69.50</td>    <td>53.45%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>INTEL ORD</td>    <td>INTC.O</td>    <td>64.98</td>    <td>$ 44.28</td>    <td>46.75%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD</td>    <td>BRKb</td>    <td>255.2</td>    <td>$ 201.90</td>    <td>26.40%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>JOHNSON &amp; JOHNSON ORD</td>    <td>JNJ</td>    <td>161.1501</td>    <td>$ 137.11</td>    <td>17.53%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AT&amp;T ORD</td>    <td>T</td>    <td>30.245</td>    <td>$ 27.02</td>    <td>11.94%</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD</td>    <td>VZ</td>    <td>56.095</td>    <td>$ 56.99</td>    <td>-1.57%</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> The banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>名字</td><td>象征</td><td>3/18/2021</td><td>10/31/2020</td><td>%变化</td></tr><tr><td>埃克森美孚订单</td><td>XOM</td><td>58.25</td><td>$32.62</td><td>78.57%</td></tr><tr><td>美国银行订单</td><td>BAC</td><td>39.9274</td><td>$23.70</td><td>68.47%</td></tr><tr><td>摩根大通订单</td><td>JPM</td><td>161.48</td><td>$98.04</td><td>64.71%</td></tr><tr><td>迪斯尼秩序</td><td>说</td><td>193.735</td><td>$121.25</td><td>59.78%</td></tr><tr><td>雪佛龙订单</td><td>CVX</td><td>106.65</td><td>$69.50</td><td>53.45%</td></tr><tr><td>英特尔订单</td><td>INTC.O</td><td>64.98</td><td>$44.28</td><td>46.75%</td></tr><tr><td>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司CL B ORD</td><td>BRKb</td><td>255.2</td><td>$201.90</td><td>26.40%</td></tr><tr><td>强生订单</td><td>JNJ</td><td>161.1501</td><td>$137.11</td><td>17.53%</td></tr><tr><td>AT&amp;T订单</td><td>T</td><td>30.245</td><td>$27.02</td><td>11.94%</td></tr><tr><td>威瑞森通信订单</td><td>VZ</td><td>56.095</td><td>$56.99</td><td>-1.57%</td></tr></tbody></table>银行股大幅上涨，这是有充分理由的，因为收益率上升，利差扩大。但即使是银行也变得捉襟见肘，许多银行的交易价格处于历史高位，而且相对于10年期国债利率，该行业的交易估值自2017年以来从未见过，这使得银行成为估值最低的行业之一。工业部门相对于10年期利率只有一次如此昂贵，那是在2018年1月，随后近两年毫无进展。</blockquote></p><p> Sure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.</p><p><blockquote>当然，材料和能源行业可能还存在一些价值。但这两个板块与其所代表的大宗商品高度相关。随着美元开始走强，这些大宗商品价格可能会开始大幅下跌，从而拖累这些行业走低。美元似乎准备升值。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心通胀，美元最初开始下跌，但当美国利率再次开始上升时，这种情况很快逆转。这使得全球利率之间的利差扩大。美国和德国10年期国债之间的利差目前为2%，而美国和日本10年期国债为1.65%。利差越大，美国收益率就越有吸引力。这将带来外国投资者买入美国债券，卖出本币，买入美元，支撑美元，提振美元价值。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38756db2fb8fdb2e613fa9d05a36e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> The rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.</p><p><blockquote>美元上涨已经帮助油价脱离高点，随着美元进一步走强，这一趋势可能会持续下去。从技术角度来看，油价在突破66.50美元左右的关键阻力位后已经突破。此外，它还打破了一个主要的上升趋势，跌破59.50美元，使该商品回到54美元。这很容易扭转能源行业的火爆局面。</blockquote></p><p> Source: TradingView</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote></p><p> If the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济将继续改善，并且美联储非常乐意让它继续改善，那么收益率没有理由不继续上升。他们筹集的资金越多，美元就会越走强，相对来说，估值越高的股票就会增长，从而迫使大规模重新定价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414816-fed-may-just-sealed-stock-markets-fate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160065206","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed's outlook of lower for as long as possible was just what stocks wanted to hear.\nHowever, that has sent US yields soaring.\nThe higher yields will force a massive repricing of equity valuation.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Reading The Markets get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe Fed gave the equity market exactly what it wanted, lower for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bond market doesn't seem as pleased, which will be horrible news for the stock market. Rising rates are crushing growth and technology stocks, and soon the rest of the market will follow because there are very few if any \"cheap\" sectors left in the market.\nIn essence, the Fed will let the economy run hot, and the bond market does not seem the least bit comfortable with that. Rates are rising sharply on March 18, with the 10-Year now trading just under 1.75%. The curve continues to lift because the bond market fears that a hot economy could quickly overheat, causing prices to rise, and inflation becomes an issue.\nIt leaves the door open for the Fed to start having to taper its bond purchases and to raise rates much sooner than expected and potentially much faster than indicated. This is resulting in bond yields pushing higher. Additionally, there's a tremendous amount of debt coming to the market, with another round of fiscal stimulus passed, and more supply will need a lot more demand.\nWhile the news at first seems to be everything the stock market wants to hear, it's not good news. In fact, there was very little the Fed could have on March 17 to please both the stock and bond market. The Fed chose to placate the stock market. But stock prices are derived from interest rates, and as interest rates rise, stock prices need to reprice. They have been repricing and shall continue to reprice at lower levels.\nThe problem is that now, relative to the 10-year note, the S&P 500 has a valuation on par with the periods in January 2018 and October 2018. At no other time in modern history has the index been this expensive on a relative basis in this low-interest rate world. Everything changed in 2008 when we flipped from a high rate to a low rate world, so the period of 1999 would not be a fair comparison.\n\nFrom another angle, the S&P 500 dividend yield is currently around 1.44%, and it has only been lower one other period in time, at the turn of the century. And now, the 10-Year once again has a higher yield than the S&P 500. So will the 10-Year yield pull the S&P 500 dividend yield over time? It seems possible. Since 2010 the 10-year has traded with a premium over the S&P 500 dividend yield of 21 bps. It is currently 20 bps, which means that a movement high in the 10-year from this point is likely to result in the premium growing wider, or dragging the S&P 500 yield higher along with the 10-year.\n\nThe rising yields in the bond market have prompted investors to refocus from growth and technology stocks to value and reflation stocks. The problem is that there is no bargain sector left - there's no \"value\" trade. The cheap stocks are cheap for a reason and because they have weak fundamentals. Over the past six months, the top ten holdings in the S&P 500 Value ETF have skyrocketed.\n\n\n\nName\nSymbol\n3/18/2021\n10/31/2020\n% Change\n\n\nEXXON MOBIL ORD\nXOM\n58.25\n$ 32.62\n78.57%\n\n\nBANK OF AMERICA ORD\nBAC\n39.9274\n$ 23.70\n68.47%\n\n\nJPMORGAN CHASE ORD\nJPM\n161.48\n$ 98.04\n64.71%\n\n\nWALT DISNEY ORD\nDIS\n193.735\n$ 121.25\n59.78%\n\n\nCHEVRON ORD\nCVX\n106.65\n$ 69.50\n53.45%\n\n\nINTEL ORD\nINTC.O\n64.98\n$ 44.28\n46.75%\n\n\nBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B ORD\nBRKb\n255.2\n$ 201.90\n26.40%\n\n\nJOHNSON & JOHNSON ORD\nJNJ\n161.1501\n$ 137.11\n17.53%\n\n\nAT&T ORD\nT\n30.245\n$ 27.02\n11.94%\n\n\nVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS ORD\nVZ\n56.095\n$ 56.99\n-1.57%\n\n\n\nThe banks have risen sharply and for good reasons because yields have risen and spreads have widened. But even the banks are getting stretched with many trading at all-time highs, and the sector trading at valuations not witnessed since 2017, relative to the 10-year Treasury rate, making the banks one of the least overvalued sectors. The industrial sector has only been this expensive relative to the 10-year rate one time and that was in January of 2018, which was followed by nearly two years of going nowhere.\nSure, there may be some value left out there in the materials and energy sector. But these two sectors are highly correlated to the commodities they represent. As the dollar begins to strengthen, those commodity prices are likely to begin falling rather sharply, dragging the sectors lower with them. That dollar seems poised to rise.\nThe dollar initially began to fall following the fears of inflation, but that quickly reversed when US rates began to rise again. That allowed the spread between global rates to widen. The spread between the US and German 10-Year now stands at 2%, while US and Japanese 10-years are at 1.65%. The wider the spreads get, the more attractive US yields become. This will bring foreign investors to buy US bonds, sell local currency, and buy US dollars, supporting the dollar and boosting its value.\n\nSource: TradingView\nThe rising dollar already has helped to bring oil prices off their highs, and that's a trend that's likely to continue as the dollar strengthens further. Oil has already broken down from a technical standpoint after failing at a key level of resistance around $66.50. It has additionally broken a major uptrend, with a drop below $59.50, sending the commodity back to $54. This could easily reverse the very hot rotation into the energy sector.\nSource: TradingView\nIf the economy will continue to improve, and the Fed is more than happy to let it, then there's no reason yields shouldn't continue to rise. The more they raise, the more the dollar will strengthen, and the more overvalued equities will grow on a relative basis, forcing a massive repricing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326434730,"gmtCreate":1615695128220,"gmtModify":1703492168703,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes.","listText":"Yes.","text":"Yes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326434730","repostId":"1199156489","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199156489","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615452861,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199156489?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 16:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199156489","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving tim","content":"<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p><blockquote>从美国东部时间3月14日（本周日）02：00开始，北美地区进入夏令时，直到美国东部时间2021年11月7日02：00结束。</blockquote></p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><blockquote>于是，从3月14日周一开始，美国市场将在北美夏令时期间提前一小时开盘和收盘，即美国交易时间改为北京时间21:30至次日凌晨04:00，交易前时间为16:00至21:30，交易后时间为04:00至8:00。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是夏令时？</b></blockquote></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p><blockquote>夏令时是在夏季将时钟拨快一小时的做法，这样白天会持续更长时间到晚上。北美和欧洲的大部分地区遵循这一习俗，而其他地方的大多数国家则不这样做。</blockquote></p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>夏威夷、美属萨摩亚、关岛、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛和亚利桑那州大部分地区不实行夏令时。坚持现状是义不容辞的责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-11 16:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p><blockquote>从美国东部时间3月14日（本周日）02：00开始，北美地区进入夏令时，直到美国东部时间2021年11月7日02：00结束。</blockquote></p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><blockquote>于是，从3月14日周一开始，美国市场将在北美夏令时期间提前一小时开盘和收盘，即美国交易时间改为北京时间21:30至次日凌晨04:00，交易前时间为16:00至21:30，交易后时间为04:00至8:00。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是夏令时？</b></blockquote></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p><blockquote>夏令时是在夏季将时钟拨快一小时的做法，这样白天会持续更长时间到晚上。北美和欧洲的大部分地区遵循这一习俗，而其他地方的大多数国家则不这样做。</blockquote></p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>夏威夷、美属萨摩亚、关岛、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛和亚利桑那州大部分地区不实行夏令时。坚持现状是义不容辞的责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199156489","content_text":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving time,until 02:00 U.S. East time ends on November 7,2021.So,starting on Monday,March 14,the U.S. market will open and close one hour ahead of schedule during north american daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S. trading time will be changed to 21:30 beijing time to 04:00 a.m.the next day,pre-trade time will be 16:00 to 21:30,after-trade time will be 04:00 to 8:00.What is daylight saving time?The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167360291,"gmtCreate":1624247549713,"gmtModify":1631892197026,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like for points","listText":"Like for points","text":"Like for points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167360291","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195557859,"gmtCreate":1621303595971,"gmtModify":1634192612825,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully tml will be better","listText":"Hopefully tml will be better","text":"Hopefully tml will be better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195557859","repostId":"2136295438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191435574,"gmtCreate":1620897340398,"gmtModify":1634195474791,"author":{"id":"3572044425484197","authorId":"3572044425484197","name":"egtan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a7ae60d50de6203ec5cee5f6e8f73a6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572044425484197","idStr":"3572044425484197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment plz","listText":"Comment plz","text":"Comment plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191435574","repostId":"1134419676","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134419676","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620892887,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134419676?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-13 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134419676","media":"zerohedge","summary":"I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of i","content":"<p>I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说在通货膨胀完全到来之前，其他任何东西都无法完成这项工作，只是说如果没有其他东西，我所写的那种通货膨胀肯定会完成这项工作。这就是市场的恐惧，而且有一个很好的理由，这可能不是一些投资者首先想到的。</blockquote></p><p>Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.</p><p><blockquote>许多人谈论投资股票的“风险溢价”。随着通胀上升，债券收益率上升，以抵消通胀造成的损失。随着债券收益率上升，股票竞争力下降。</blockquote></p><p>That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.</p><p><blockquote>这是个问题，但不是大问题。这次不行。</blockquote></p><p>The big&nbsp;problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是，我们都知道购买股票的资金来自哪里——美联储和美国政府通过借入和分配美联储印刷的资金。所以，最大的问题是美联储。</blockquote></p><p><b>Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储正陷入自己造成的混乱之中</b></blockquote></p><p>Having made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.</p><p><blockquote>在证明高通胀已经成为必然之后，用不了多久，美联储就会陷入一个陷阱，需要继续创造货币以保持市场上涨并继续刺激经济，但它不会。这就是为什么我们听到美联储不停地谈论通胀现在是“暂时的”。美联储需要让所有投资者相信通胀的快速曙光期将会很短，因此可以忽略它。美联储需要市场相信它能够也将继续印钞。</blockquote></p><p>However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储只是在自欺欺人。它声称通货膨胀是暂时的，以便它可以忽略快速上升的数字，通货膨胀就会越失控，因为美联储和联邦政府继续印钞和运送钞票的装甲车昼夜不停地运行。（当然是比喻性的。）</blockquote></p><p>The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会欺骗自己（和我们）的长期伤害，但它不太可能欺骗市场太久，因为这些数字将太高，市场无法忽视。周三，我们在市场对多年来最高通胀消息的反应中看到了这一点——4月份的年化通胀为4.2%，远低于我们今年夏天即将看到的通胀水平。这只是球场的结束。</blockquote></p><p><b>How inflation will fight the Fed and win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀将如何对抗美联储并获胜</b></blockquote></p><p>The danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀带来的危险是，如果通胀升至我确定的水平（两位数），那么美联储将被迫提高利率目标，因为市场无论如何都会推高利率，这使得美联储看起来很愚蠢。声称自己无法持有的利率目标。美联储将无法在不通过创造新货币造成更大通胀的情况下压低利率。</blockquote></p><p>However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不仅仅是债券义务警员会从美联储手中夺取利息控制权，股市也会迫使美联储通过担心通胀来应对通胀，无论美联储是否表示应该这样做。消费者还将向国会施压，要求美联储应对通胀。拖延的时间越长，美联储就必须加息的幅度就越大，就像保罗·沃尔克在80年代为控制通胀所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p>This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.</p><p><blockquote>在股市处于荒谬的危险高度之际，这个难题现在开始成为现实。对通胀的微弱认识不再那么微弱，这就是市场动力不足的原因。投资者开始相信美联储将失去对利率的控制。投资者开始怀疑美联储的信心之言。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>当然，要崩溃，势头必须转向下行，而在市场确定美联储将失去控制之前，这种情况不太可能发生；但这可能会像2018年那样缓慢发生，然后很快发生。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀是美联储背上的定时炸弹。我的论点是，现在每个月美联储都会发现越来越难维持这样的幻想：它可以继续创造货币，将其注入普通投资者（散户投资者、罗宾汉人群等）手中。）通过政府刺激计划（应政府的要求），并继续努力保持低利率，通过贷款资助的公司股票回购向股市注入资金。通货膨胀会压垮宽松的货币。它统治着。美联储可以统治它，但只能通过拿走资金并摧毁完全依赖这些资金的市场。</blockquote></p><p>The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.</p><p><blockquote>盘子旋转器开始失去对所有盘子的控制，它必须在小棍子的末端保持旋转。今天的市场走势表明，随着通胀表现得比投资者担心的更糟糕，市场开始关注板块下跌的声音。The<i>真的</i>恐惧——直到现在才被预示的深度瘫痪恐惧——不是来自债券收益率上升的竞争（尽管这肯定会到来），而是通胀将变得足够激烈，以至于美联储将被迫关闭所有的go果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀有能力突然扭转市场情绪，因为，嗯，跟随资金回到它的来源。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. <i>MarketWatch</i>Inflation jitters will become inflation&nbsp;<i>panic</i>&nbsp;when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>一份报告显示，随着新冠疫情的复苏，截至4月份的一年里，美国通胀率以约13年来最快的速度上升，通胀担忧再次蔓延，股市大幅走低。<i>市场观察</i>通胀不安将变成通胀<i>恐慌</i>当很明显，升至4.2不仅仅是一个暂时现象，而是消费者方面未来许多步骤中的第一步。希望我的读者中没有人太关注那些预测只有3.6%的经济学家。</blockquote></p><p>“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.&nbsp; <b><i>But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.</i></b>”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>Incapital交易主管帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)在接受MarketWatch采访时表示：“通货膨胀会摧毁财富。就这样。”“我们看到通货膨胀出现在市场上。如果它确实是暂时的，市场可以接受。<b><i>但如果它不是暂时的，那么它就会成为股市的麻烦。</i></b>“财富的破坏是一个担忧，但我认为，更大的担忧是亚马逊规模的、轻松流入市场的资金的损失。这就是为什么当就业报告非常糟糕时，市场会上涨。就业疲软的报告缓解了人们对通胀的担忧，导致美联储关闭了资金流动。这就是为什么今天市场因与通胀高于许多人预期相反的可靠消息而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten,<i>&nbsp;regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.</i></p><p><blockquote>美联储的手可能很快就会被现实所迫；如果你一直在这里阅读——尤其是那些重点关注通货膨胀的顾客帖子，你就会对即将发生的事情有一个很好的了解。然而，人们不必等到美联储收紧政策才能阻止通胀；人们只需要等到股票投资者确信美联储将不得不收紧货币政策，<i>不管美联储声称如何向投资者保证不会。</i></blockquote></p><p>As&nbsp;<i>MarketWatch</i>&nbsp;noted yesterday,</p><p><blockquote>作为<i>市场观察</i>昨天指出，</blockquote></p><p>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,&nbsp; <b><i>as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</i></b>&nbsp;After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear&nbsp; <b><i>Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.</i></b>The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.</p><p><blockquote>周二股市看起来充满风险，尤其是科技股，<b><i>随着通胀不安情绪继续波及整个市场。该行业一直首当其冲，人们担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束COVID-19大流行推动的宽松立场。</i></b>在上周就业意外下滑之后，一些人感到担忧<b><i>周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。</i></b>市场在自身负荷下头重脚轻、紧张不安，如果仅仅相信美联储将被迫紧缩，市场就会崩溃。这就是为什么今天它像前震一样震动，但如果你一直在这里阅读，它根本不是一个冲击。这是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Inflation is the “</i></b> <b>worst-case</b> <b><i>&nbsp;scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors,</i></b>&nbsp;warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the&nbsp;<i>key</i>:</p><p><blockquote><b><i>通货膨胀是“</i></b><b>最坏情况</b><b><i>情景”对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场，</i></b>《股票交易者日报》总裁兼首席执行官兼Equity Logic投资组合经理Thomas H.Kee Jr.警告我们当天的看涨期权。这是<i>钥匙</i>：</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.&nbsp; <b><i>If inflation comes back,</i></b> <b>all</b> <b><i>&nbsp;of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be</i></b> <b>able</b> <b><i>&nbsp;to come back to save the day</i></b>,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and <b><i>&nbsp;if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen</i></b>&nbsp;either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ <b><i>When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!</i></b>”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed&nbsp;<i>wants</i>&nbsp;higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施成为可能的唯一原因是因为没有通货膨胀。<b><i>如果通胀卷土重来，</i></b><b>全部</b><b><i>投资者获得的保障措施（刺激计划中的免费资金）将被解散，而且不会</i></b><b>能干</b><b><i>回来拯救世界</i></b>，”Kee告诉MarketWatch……他表示，最近的就业数据确实表明价格上涨将“比之前想象的更严重……”“下降幅度可能比25%严重得多<b><i>如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因为通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者已经习惯的快速反弹将不会发生</i></b>基说。“SPX SPX(^GSPC)的公允价值倍数不是30-[至]35倍。更像是15倍……”让这一点变得现实的是投资者自然风险认知的回归——目前这种认知严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划全面生效，投资者根本没有察觉到任何风险。那是最危险的事情！”纪说……”<b><i>当大买家不在那里时…那就是对风险的自然感知回来的时候，如果发生这种情况…请注意下面！！</i></b>“你看，通胀上升有能力让美联储屈服。我一直在写的那种通胀可能会让美联储失去魔力，这就是为什么鲍威尔已经在尽最大努力让金融市场相信美联储<i>想要</i>更高的通胀，并让他们相信它想要的更高通胀在开始之前就是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Market susceptibility</p><p><blockquote>市场易感性</blockquote></p><p>Notes Lance Roberts,</p><p><blockquote>兰斯·罗伯茨指出，</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b><i>There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market,</i></b>&nbsp;but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” <i>Seeking Alpha</i>How much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?</p><p><blockquote><b><i>这次牛市不可能不以非常糟糕的方式结束。我们都知道这是这个流动性推动的市场的现实，</i></b>但我们继续投资是因为“害怕错过”。<i>寻求阿尔法</i>美联储和美联储涌入市场的所有刺激资金创造了多少现金流，使过去一年的疯狂成为可能？</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.</p><p><blockquote>过去5个月，涌入股市的资金比过去12年的总和还要多。算一算，问问你自己，如果货币不得不被关闭，会发生什么，因为通货膨胀迫使美联储停止在商品很少的环境中创造大量新货币，这是由于以前的COVID关闭短缺和他们已经建立的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p>And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):</p><p><blockquote>而且，如果您不认为市场因宽松资金而不稳定地走高，请看看保证金债务（欠经纪人的钱）上升导致市场上涨了多少：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca87d635f36dfaa1c989d7e459550d1\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>When the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储面临加息和停止印钞的压力时，经纪人就不会如此自由地放贷了。现在，以几乎免费的利率轻松赚钱。然而，更重要的是，当市场因担心美联储切断宽松货币供应而开始下跌时，所有保证金债务都开始匆忙平仓，因为人们被迫出售资产并减少保证金债务。</blockquote></p><p>As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:</p><p><blockquote>正如您还可以看到的，市场债务往往会在严重崩盘之前发生像这样的巨大、快速飙升：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff13864e0443e2a448952529cdf6e2c\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.</p><p><blockquote>短期来看，基本面并不重要。然而，从长远来看，它们非常重要。情绪可能会导致投资者长期忽视经济基本面，但在高利润率债务的环境下，对长期被忽视的基本面看法的突然变化会带来人们的快速修正框架参考。</blockquote></p><p>Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者忽视了经济和盈利将改善的基本面，以证明市场高估的合理性。这不太可能发生。即使是这样，大多数圈子对金融格局（货币的核心价值）的看法也过于乐观，正如今天的冲击所表明的那样；但你可以看到一年后的情况。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.</p><p><blockquote>美联储说得好像它仍然没有看到即将发生的事情，但这是同一个美联储谈论紧缩将是多么容易。它似乎不知道自己没有一个不会导致市场情绪急剧下降并导致市场崩溃的退出计划。然而，那些不在费德神父脚下敬拜的人，多年后也能看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&amp;P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>当复苏预期落空时，市场将开始为其内在价值重新定价。鉴于市场目前的交易水平是潜在经济增长水平的两倍多，而潜在经济增长是企业利润的来源，这表明存在重大风险。这就是为什么道琼斯指数今天下跌682点（2%），标准普尔指数下跌2.14%，纳斯达克下跌368点（2.67%）。股票中没有太多安全的空间。</blockquote></p><p>Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.</p><p><blockquote>别告诉我通货膨胀对这个市场无关紧要。六个月来最糟糕的一天。在另一个顾客帖子中会有更多的介绍。</blockquote></p><p>Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我再一次做我说过的在这个时候是必不可少的那种纠正性报告。一、假新闻：</blockquote></p><p>One big reason for the acceleration was&nbsp; <i>base effects</i>&nbsp;– at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,</p><p><blockquote>加速的一个重要原因是<i>基础效应</i>-一年前的这个时候，经济受到了新冠疫情最严重的打击，通货膨胀率异常低。CNBC这并不准确。正如我在上一篇赞助人帖子中所说，我还列出了统计事实和来源来支持我的声明，</blockquote></p><p>Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:</p><p><blockquote>尽管发生了疫情，食品价格和许多其他价格仍像去年三月一样上涨。事实上，3月份之后，它们的涨幅比正常情况更糟糕，2020年剩余时间里每个月的年化涨幅都在3.5%至4%之间。“通胀海啸警报正在尖叫！”我特别注意到一位经济学家，他说食品杂货和燃料现在只是在弥补上次的损失：</blockquote></p><p>So,&nbsp; <i>like groceries,</i>&nbsp;gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that&nbsp;<i>fuel</i>&nbsp;prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but&nbsp;<i>groceries</i>? Come on!</p><p><blockquote>所以，<i>比如食品杂货，</i>气体正在赶上回到我们实际预期的位置…去年主要发生的是<i>燃料</i>由于没有任何东西被运输，缺乏度假和通勤，价格暴跌，但<i>杂货</i>？来吧！</blockquote></p><p></p><p>“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.<b><i>So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of facts</i></b><b>if</b><b><i>&nbsp;the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如果你回顾2018年的价格，汽油的“追赶”可能是真的，但当你在评论中接受杂货时，这完全是马粪。食品杂货没有什么可做的。2020年全年食品的平均通胀率为3.4%，相比之下，自2011年以来，每年的平均通胀率为0.3%-2.5%。3.6%。虽然去年4月至6月的整体通胀率低于正常水平，但这与今年有什么关系呢？【总体】去年物价仍上涨；因此，这并不是说你在与一个反常的年份进行比较，在这几个月里，整体价格下跌，这意味着今年的一些涨幅只是弥补了去年的反常损失。那么你就可以如实地说有一个基数效应。<b><i>因此，通货膨胀的到来比美联储让人们相信的要严重得多；而且，正如我最近的赞助人帖子所展示的那样，生产者方面已经酝酿了更多的通货膨胀，这肯定会被传递出去。我注意到你现在可以期待看到这一点开始出现在消费者方面，你也确实做到了。这将是一个通胀炎热的夏天，这可能会恶化市场情绪，因此股市不会很好地适应。可以肯定的是，无论如何，仍然有很多睾丸激素决心推高股市，但炎热潮湿的夏天将会摧毁这种情绪，就像今天一样；无论图表读者根据当前的情绪趋势做出什么预测，它都会继续波动。在事实面前，趋势会很快改变</i></b><b>如果</b><b><i>事实以足够的活力闯入。我认为高通胀是一个令人恐惧的事实，它可以通过阻止美联储计划的推进来突破。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储真的继续带着同样的盲目无知和顽固的决心前进，以证明自己是正确的，这导致它继续推行经济紧缩制度（正如我在2018年声称的那样，这与良好的判断相反），它真的会让事情变得更糟，更难驯服。我认为这不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p>“ <b><i>There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,</i></b>” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,</p><p><blockquote>“<b><i>有些人认为美联储不仅仅落后于形势，他们可能没有抓住要点，当他们开始追赶时，已经太晚了，</i></b>华尔街资深人士Art Cashin周三表示CNBCAS的一位经济学家指出，</blockquote></p><p>“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.&nbsp; <b><i>“It’s just that there’s a</i></b> <b>lot more</b> <b><i>&nbsp;‘transitory’ than they were expecting.</i></b>”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯(Michael Pearce)写道：“我们怀疑这份报告能否改变官员们的看法，即通胀压力‘很大程度上是暂时的’。”<b><i>“只是有一个</i></b><b>更多</b><b><i>比他们预期的“短暂”。</i></b>“CNBC确实如此。更多。当他们用完一个假的基础效应来指责它时，他们会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p>Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!</p><p><blockquote>喜欢吗？花点时间在Patreon上支持大卫·哈吉斯！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Will Kill This Stock Market<blockquote>通货膨胀会扼杀这个股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说在通货膨胀完全到来之前，其他任何东西都无法完成这项工作，只是说如果没有其他东西，我所写的那种通货膨胀肯定会完成这项工作。这就是市场的恐惧，而且有一个很好的理由，这可能不是一些投资者首先想到的。</blockquote></p><p>Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.</p><p><blockquote>许多人谈论投资股票的“风险溢价”。随着通胀上升，债券收益率上升，以抵消通胀造成的损失。随着债券收益率上升，股票竞争力下降。</blockquote></p><p>That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.</p><p><blockquote>这是个问题，但不是大问题。这次不行。</blockquote></p><p>The big&nbsp;problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是，我们都知道购买股票的资金来自哪里——美联储和美国政府通过借入和分配美联储印刷的资金。所以，最大的问题是美联储。</blockquote></p><p><b>Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own making</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储正陷入自己造成的混乱之中</b></blockquote></p><p>Having made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.</p><p><blockquote>在证明高通胀已经成为必然之后，用不了多久，美联储就会陷入一个陷阱，需要继续创造货币以保持市场上涨并继续刺激经济，但它不会。这就是为什么我们听到美联储不停地谈论通胀现在是“暂时的”。美联储需要让所有投资者相信通胀的快速曙光期将会很短，因此可以忽略它。美联储需要市场相信它能够也将继续印钞。</blockquote></p><p>However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储只是在自欺欺人。它声称通货膨胀是暂时的，以便它可以忽略快速上升的数字，通货膨胀就会越失控，因为美联储和联邦政府继续印钞和运送钞票的装甲车昼夜不停地运行。（当然是比喻性的。）</blockquote></p><p>The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会欺骗自己（和我们）的长期伤害，但它不太可能欺骗市场太久，因为这些数字将太高，市场无法忽视。周三，我们在市场对多年来最高通胀消息的反应中看到了这一点——4月份的年化通胀为4.2%，远低于我们今年夏天即将看到的通胀水平。这只是球场的结束。</blockquote></p><p><b>How inflation will fight the Fed and win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀将如何对抗美联储并获胜</b></blockquote></p><p>The danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀带来的危险是，如果通胀升至我确定的水平（两位数），那么美联储将被迫提高利率目标，因为市场无论如何都会推高利率，这使得美联储看起来很愚蠢。声称自己无法持有的利率目标。美联储将无法在不通过创造新货币造成更大通胀的情况下压低利率。</blockquote></p><p>However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不仅仅是债券义务警员会从美联储手中夺取利息控制权，股市也会迫使美联储通过担心通胀来应对通胀，无论美联储是否表示应该这样做。消费者还将向国会施压，要求美联储应对通胀。拖延的时间越长，美联储就必须加息的幅度就越大，就像保罗·沃尔克在80年代为控制通胀所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p>This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.</p><p><blockquote>在股市处于荒谬的危险高度之际，这个难题现在开始成为现实。对通胀的微弱认识不再那么微弱，这就是市场动力不足的原因。投资者开始相信美联储将失去对利率的控制。投资者开始怀疑美联储的信心之言。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>当然，要崩溃，势头必须转向下行，而在市场确定美联储将失去控制之前，这种情况不太可能发生；但这可能会像2018年那样缓慢发生，然后很快发生。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.</p><p><blockquote>通胀是美联储背上的定时炸弹。我的论点是，现在每个月美联储都会发现越来越难维持这样的幻想：它可以继续创造货币，将其注入普通投资者（散户投资者、罗宾汉人群等）手中。）通过政府刺激计划（应政府的要求），并继续努力保持低利率，通过贷款资助的公司股票回购向股市注入资金。通货膨胀会压垮宽松的货币。它统治着。美联储可以统治它，但只能通过拿走资金并摧毁完全依赖这些资金的市场。</blockquote></p><p>The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.</p><p><blockquote>盘子旋转器开始失去对所有盘子的控制，它必须在小棍子的末端保持旋转。今天的市场走势表明，随着通胀表现得比投资者担心的更糟糕，市场开始关注板块下跌的声音。The<i>真的</i>恐惧——直到现在才被预示的深度瘫痪恐惧——不是来自债券收益率上升的竞争（尽管这肯定会到来），而是通胀将变得足够激烈，以至于美联储将被迫关闭所有的go果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀有能力突然扭转市场情绪，因为，嗯，跟随资金回到它的来源。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. <i>MarketWatch</i>Inflation jitters will become inflation&nbsp;<i>panic</i>&nbsp;when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.</p><p><blockquote>一份报告显示，随着新冠疫情的复苏，截至4月份的一年里，美国通胀率以约13年来最快的速度上升，通胀担忧再次蔓延，股市大幅走低。<i>市场观察</i>通胀不安将变成通胀<i>恐慌</i>当很明显，升至4.2不仅仅是一个暂时现象，而是消费者方面未来许多步骤中的第一步。希望我的读者中没有人太关注那些预测只有3.6%的经济学家。</blockquote></p><p>“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.&nbsp; <b><i>But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.</i></b>”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>Incapital交易主管帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)在接受MarketWatch采访时表示：“通货膨胀会摧毁财富。就这样。”“我们看到通货膨胀出现在市场上。如果它确实是暂时的，市场可以接受。<b><i>但如果它不是暂时的，那么它就会成为股市的麻烦。</i></b>“财富的破坏是一个担忧，但我认为，更大的担忧是亚马逊规模的、轻松流入市场的资金的损失。这就是为什么当就业报告非常糟糕时，市场会上涨。就业疲软的报告缓解了人们对通胀的担忧，导致美联储关闭了资金流动。这就是为什么今天市场因与通胀高于许多人预期相反的可靠消息而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten,<i>&nbsp;regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.</i></p><p><blockquote>美联储的手可能很快就会被现实所迫；如果你一直在这里阅读——尤其是那些重点关注通货膨胀的顾客帖子，你就会对即将发生的事情有一个很好的了解。然而，人们不必等到美联储收紧政策才能阻止通胀；人们只需要等到股票投资者确信美联储将不得不收紧货币政策，<i>不管美联储声称如何向投资者保证不会。</i></blockquote></p><p>As&nbsp;<i>MarketWatch</i>&nbsp;noted yesterday,</p><p><blockquote>作为<i>市场观察</i>昨天指出，</blockquote></p><p>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,&nbsp; <b><i>as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</i></b>&nbsp;After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear&nbsp; <b><i>Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.</i></b>The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.</p><p><blockquote>周二股市看起来充满风险，尤其是科技股，<b><i>随着通胀不安情绪继续波及整个市场。该行业一直首当其冲，人们担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束COVID-19大流行推动的宽松立场。</i></b>在上周就业意外下滑之后，一些人感到担忧<b><i>周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。</i></b>市场在自身负荷下头重脚轻、紧张不安，如果仅仅相信美联储将被迫紧缩，市场就会崩溃。这就是为什么今天它像前震一样震动，但如果你一直在这里阅读，它根本不是一个冲击。这是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p><b><i>Inflation is the “</i></b> <b>worst-case</b> <b><i>&nbsp;scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors,</i></b>&nbsp;warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the&nbsp;<i>key</i>:</p><p><blockquote><b><i>通货膨胀是“</i></b><b>最坏情况</b><b><i>情景”对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场，</i></b>《股票交易者日报》总裁兼首席执行官兼Equity Logic投资组合经理Thomas H.Kee Jr.警告我们当天的看涨期权。这是<i>钥匙</i>：</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.&nbsp; <b><i>If inflation comes back,</i></b> <b>all</b> <b><i>&nbsp;of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be</i></b> <b>able</b> <b><i>&nbsp;to come back to save the day</i></b>,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and <b><i>&nbsp;if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen</i></b>&nbsp;either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ <b><i>When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!</i></b>”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed&nbsp;<i>wants</i>&nbsp;higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施成为可能的唯一原因是因为没有通货膨胀。<b><i>如果通胀卷土重来，</i></b><b>全部</b><b><i>投资者获得的保障措施（刺激计划中的免费资金）将被解散，而且不会</i></b><b>能干</b><b><i>回来拯救世界</i></b>，”Kee告诉MarketWatch……他表示，最近的就业数据确实表明价格上涨将“比之前想象的更严重……”“下降幅度可能比25%严重得多<b><i>如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因为通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者已经习惯的快速反弹将不会发生</i></b>基说。“SPX SPX(^GSPC)的公允价值倍数不是30-[至]35倍。更像是15倍……”让这一点变得现实的是投资者自然风险认知的回归——目前这种认知严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划全面生效，投资者根本没有察觉到任何风险。那是最危险的事情！”纪说……”<b><i>当大买家不在那里时…那就是对风险的自然感知回来的时候，如果发生这种情况…请注意下面！！</i></b>“你看，通胀上升有能力让美联储屈服。我一直在写的那种通胀可能会让美联储失去魔力，这就是为什么鲍威尔已经在尽最大努力让金融市场相信美联储<i>想要</i>更高的通胀，并让他们相信它想要的更高通胀在开始之前就是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Market susceptibility</p><p><blockquote>市场易感性</blockquote></p><p>Notes Lance Roberts,</p><p><blockquote>兰斯·罗伯茨指出，</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b><i>There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market,</i></b>&nbsp;but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” <i>Seeking Alpha</i>How much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?</p><p><blockquote><b><i>这次牛市不可能不以非常糟糕的方式结束。我们都知道这是这个流动性推动的市场的现实，</i></b>但我们继续投资是因为“害怕错过”。<i>寻求阿尔法</i>美联储和美联储涌入市场的所有刺激资金创造了多少现金流，使过去一年的疯狂成为可能？</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.</p><p><blockquote>过去5个月，涌入股市的资金比过去12年的总和还要多。算一算，问问你自己，如果货币不得不被关闭，会发生什么，因为通货膨胀迫使美联储停止在商品很少的环境中创造大量新货币，这是由于以前的COVID关闭短缺和他们已经建立的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p>And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):</p><p><blockquote>而且，如果您不认为市场因宽松资金而不稳定地走高，请看看保证金债务（欠经纪人的钱）上升导致市场上涨了多少：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca87d635f36dfaa1c989d7e459550d1\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>When the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储面临加息和停止印钞的压力时，经纪人就不会如此自由地放贷了。现在，以几乎免费的利率轻松赚钱。然而，更重要的是，当市场因担心美联储切断宽松货币供应而开始下跌时，所有保证金债务都开始匆忙平仓，因为人们被迫出售资产并减少保证金债务。</blockquote></p><p>As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:</p><p><blockquote>正如您还可以看到的，市场债务往往会在严重崩盘之前发生像这样的巨大、快速飙升：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff13864e0443e2a448952529cdf6e2c\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Seeking Alpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>寻求阿尔法</i></blockquote></p><p>In the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.</p><p><blockquote>短期来看，基本面并不重要。然而，从长远来看，它们非常重要。情绪可能会导致投资者长期忽视经济基本面，但在高利润率债务的环境下，对长期被忽视的基本面看法的突然变化会带来人们的快速修正框架参考。</blockquote></p><p>Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.</p><p><blockquote>目前，投资者忽视了经济和盈利将改善的基本面，以证明市场高估的合理性。这不太可能发生。即使是这样，大多数圈子对金融格局（货币的核心价值）的看法也过于乐观，正如今天的冲击所表明的那样；但你可以看到一年后的情况。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.</p><p><blockquote>美联储说得好像它仍然没有看到即将发生的事情，但这是同一个美联储谈论紧缩将是多么容易。它似乎不知道自己没有一个不会导致市场情绪急剧下降并导致市场崩溃的退出计划。然而，那些不在费德神父脚下敬拜的人，多年后也能看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&amp;P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>当复苏预期落空时，市场将开始为其内在价值重新定价。鉴于市场目前的交易水平是潜在经济增长水平的两倍多，而潜在经济增长是企业利润的来源，这表明存在重大风险。这就是为什么道琼斯指数今天下跌682点（2%），标准普尔指数下跌2.14%，纳斯达克下跌368点（2.67%）。股票中没有太多安全的空间。</blockquote></p><p>Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.</p><p><blockquote>别告诉我通货膨胀对这个市场无关紧要。六个月来最糟糕的一天。在另一个顾客帖子中会有更多的介绍。</blockquote></p><p>Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我再一次做我说过的在这个时候是必不可少的那种纠正性报告。一、假新闻：</blockquote></p><p>One big reason for the acceleration was&nbsp; <i>base effects</i>&nbsp;– at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,</p><p><blockquote>加速的一个重要原因是<i>基础效应</i>-一年前的这个时候，经济受到了新冠疫情最严重的打击，通货膨胀率异常低。CNBC这并不准确。正如我在上一篇赞助人帖子中所说，我还列出了统计事实和来源来支持我的声明，</blockquote></p><p>Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:</p><p><blockquote>尽管发生了疫情，食品价格和许多其他价格仍像去年三月一样上涨。事实上，3月份之后，它们的涨幅比正常情况更糟糕，2020年剩余时间里每个月的年化涨幅都在3.5%至4%之间。“通胀海啸警报正在尖叫！”我特别注意到一位经济学家，他说食品杂货和燃料现在只是在弥补上次的损失：</blockquote></p><p>So,&nbsp; <i>like groceries,</i>&nbsp;gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that&nbsp;<i>fuel</i>&nbsp;prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but&nbsp;<i>groceries</i>? Come on!</p><p><blockquote>所以，<i>比如食品杂货，</i>气体正在赶上回到我们实际预期的位置…去年主要发生的是<i>燃料</i>由于没有任何东西被运输，缺乏度假和通勤，价格暴跌，但<i>杂货</i>？来吧！</blockquote></p><p></p><p>“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.<b><i>So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of facts</i></b><b>if</b><b><i>&nbsp;the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如果你回顾2018年的价格，汽油的“追赶”可能是真的，但当你在评论中接受杂货时，这完全是马粪。食品杂货没有什么可做的。2020年全年食品的平均通胀率为3.4%，相比之下，自2011年以来，每年的平均通胀率为0.3%-2.5%。3.6%。虽然去年4月至6月的整体通胀率低于正常水平，但这与今年有什么关系呢？【总体】去年物价仍上涨；因此，这并不是说你在与一个反常的年份进行比较，在这几个月里，整体价格下跌，这意味着今年的一些涨幅只是弥补了去年的反常损失。那么你就可以如实地说有一个基数效应。<b><i>因此，通货膨胀的到来比美联储让人们相信的要严重得多；而且，正如我最近的赞助人帖子所展示的那样，生产者方面已经酝酿了更多的通货膨胀，这肯定会被传递出去。我注意到你现在可以期待看到这一点开始出现在消费者方面，你也确实做到了。这将是一个通胀炎热的夏天，这可能会恶化市场情绪，因此股市不会很好地适应。可以肯定的是，无论如何，仍然有很多睾丸激素决心推高股市，但炎热潮湿的夏天将会摧毁这种情绪，就像今天一样；无论图表读者根据当前的情绪趋势做出什么预测，它都会继续波动。在事实面前，趋势会很快改变</i></b><b>如果</b><b><i>事实以足够的活力闯入。我认为高通胀是一个令人恐惧的事实，它可以通过阻止美联储计划的推进来突破。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储真的继续带着同样的盲目无知和顽固的决心前进，以证明自己是正确的，这导致它继续推行经济紧缩制度（正如我在2018年声称的那样，这与良好的判断相反），它真的会让事情变得更糟，更难驯服。我认为这不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p>“ <b><i>There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,</i></b>” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,</p><p><blockquote>“<b><i>有些人认为美联储不仅仅落后于形势，他们可能没有抓住要点，当他们开始追赶时，已经太晚了，</i></b>华尔街资深人士Art Cashin周三表示CNBCAS的一位经济学家指出，</blockquote></p><p>“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.&nbsp; <b><i>“It’s just that there’s a</i></b> <b>lot more</b> <b><i>&nbsp;‘transitory’ than they were expecting.</i></b>”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯(Michael Pearce)写道：“我们怀疑这份报告能否改变官员们的看法，即通胀压力‘很大程度上是暂时的’。”<b><i>“只是有一个</i></b><b>更多</b><b><i>比他们预期的“短暂”。</i></b>“CNBC确实如此。更多。当他们用完一个假的基础效应来指责它时，他们会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p>Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!</p><p><blockquote>喜欢吗？花点时间在Patreon上支持大卫·哈吉斯！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-12/inflation-will-kill-stock-market\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-12/inflation-will-kill-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134419676","content_text":"I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ minds.Many talk about the “risk premium” of investing in stocks. As inflation rises, bond yields rise to offset what will be lost to inflation. As bond yields rise, stocks become less competitive.That’s a problem, but it’s not the big problem. Not this time.The big problem is that we all know where the money for stocks is coming from — the Federal reserve and the US government by borrowing and distributing the money the Fed prints. So, the big problem is the Fed.Fed is getting tangled in a mess of its own makingHaving made the case that high inflation is now already a given, it won’t be long before the Fed is caught in a trap where it needs to continue creating money in order to keep the market rising and to keep stimulating the economy, but it won’t be able to. That’s why we hear the Fed talking incessantly about how inflation is “transitory” right now. The Fed NEEDS to have all investors believe that the rapidly dawning period of inflation will be short so it can be ignored. The Fed needs the market to believe it CAN and WILL keep printing money.However, the Fed is just fooling itself. The longer it claims inflation is temporary so that it can ignore the rapidly rising numbers, the more inflation will move out of control because the Fed and the federal government keep the money printing and the armored cars for transporting it running around the clock. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)The Fed may fool itself to its (and our) longterm harm, but it is not likely to fool the market much longer because the numbers will be coming in too high for the market to ignore. We’ve saw that on Wednesday in how the market responded to news of the highest inflation in years — a number annualized at 4.2% in April, which is well below the level of inflation we’re about to see this summer. That’s just the wind-up for the pitch.How inflation will fight the Fed and winThe danger inflation imposes is that, if it rises as high as I am certain it is going to rise (double digits), then the Fed will be forced to raise its interest targets because the market will shove interest up regardless, making the Fed look dumb for claiming an interest target it cannot hold. The Fed won’t be able to what it takes to hold interest down without creating massively greater inflation through its creation of new money.However, it is not just that the bond vigilantes will wrest control of interest out of the Fed’s hands, it’s that the stock market will force the Fed to deal with inflation by fearing it whether the Fed says it should or not. Consumers will also press congress to press the Fed to deal with inflation. The longer it delays, the more massively the Fed will have to raise interest rates, just as Paul Volker did in the 80’s to get inflation under control.This conundrum is starting to materialize now at a time when the stock market is at absurdly perilous heights. Faint realizations of inflation are no longer so faint, which is why the market is running out of momentum. Investors are starting to believe the Fed will lose control of interest rates. Investors are starting to doubt the Fed’s words of confidence.Of course, to crash, momentum has to turn downward, and that won’t likely happen until the market is certain the Fed is going to lose control; but that can happen slowly at first and then quickly as it did in 2018.Inflation is a time bomb on the Fed’s back. My thesis is that every month now the Fed is going to find it harder and harder to maintain the illusion that it can keep creating money, pumping it into mom-and-pop investor hands (retail investors, the Robinhood crowed, etc.) through government stimulus programs (at the government’s demand) and keep trying to maintain low interest to pump money into the stock market via corporate stock buybacks funded on loans. Inflation will crush easy money. It rule. The Fed can rule over it, but only by taking away money and crashing markets that are utterly dependent on that money.The plate spinner is starting to lose control of all the plates it has to keep twirling on the ends of little sticks. Today’s action in the market shows the market is starting to pay attention to the clatter of falling plates as inflation shows up worse than investors feared. The real fear — the deep paralyzing fear that is only now being foreshadowed — is not competition from rising bond yields (certain as that is to come) but that inflation will become hot enough that the Fed will be forced to turn off all of its go juice.Inflation has the power to suddenly turn market sentiment on its head because, well, follow the money back to where it is coming from.Stocks headed sharply lower as inflation jitters percolated again, following a report showing U.S. inflation in the year to April rose at its fastest pace in about 13 years, amid the recovery from the COVID pandemic. MarketWatchInflation jitters will become inflation panic when it becomes clear that the rise to 4.2 is not just a blip but the first step on the consumer side of many steps to come. Hopefully none of my readers were paying much attention to economists who were forecasting a meager 3.6%.“Inflation destroys wealth. Period,” said Patrick Leary, head of trading at Incapital, in an interview with MarketWatch. “We see inflation showing up in markets. If it’s indeed transitory, markets can live with it.  But if it’s not transitory, that’s when it is going to become troubling for stocks.”The destruction of wealth is one concern, but the bigger concern, I believe, is the loss of the Amazon-scale, easy-money stream into the market. This is why the market went up when the jobs report was truly horrible. The report of slackening employment eased feelings of concern about inflation causing the Fed to turn off the flow. Its why the market plunged today on solid news to the contrary of higher inflation than many were expecting.The Fed’s hand may soon be forced by reality; and if you’ve been reading here — particularly the Patron Posts that focused intensively on inflation, you’ve had a good idea of what is coming. One won’t have to wait until the Fed tightens to stop inflation, however; one only has to wait until stock investors become convinced the Fed will have to tighten, regardless of what the Fed claims to assure investors it won’t.As MarketWatch noted yesterday,Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space,  as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance. After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear  Wednesday’s consumer price data could also deliver a nasty shock.The market is top-heavy and jittery under its own load to such an extent that it will crash if it merely believes the Fed will be forced to tighten. That’s why it jolted as a foreshock today, but it wasn’t a shock at all if you’ve been reading here. It was expected.Inflation is the “ worst-case  scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns our call of the day from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.And here’s the key:“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation.  If inflation comes back, all  of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able  to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch…. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought….”“The declines can be much worse than 25% and  if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPX SPX (^GSPC) is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x….”What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said….“ When the big buyer is not there … that is when natural perceptions of risk come back, and if that happens … watch out below!!”You see, rising inflation has the power to cut the Fed off at the knees. The kind of inflation I’ve been writing about can suck the mojo right out of the Fed, and that is why Powell is already doing his best to convince financial markets that the Fed wants higher inflation and convince them that the higher inflation it wants is temporary before it even begins.Market susceptibilityNotes Lance Roberts,There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly. We all know that is the reality of this liquidity-fueled market, but we keep investing for “Fear Of Missing Out.” Seeking AlphaHow much does all that stimulus money from Fed and Feds pouring into the market create the cashflow that made the past year’s insanity possible?Over the past 5-MONTHS, more money has poured into the equity markets than in the last 12-YEARS combined.Do the math and ask yourself what happens if the money HAS to be turned off because inflation forces the Fed to stop creating to much new money in an environment of to few goods due to previous COVID-shutdown shortages and the continuing problems they’ve set up.And, if you don’t think the market is precariously riding high on easy money, look at how much it is rising on rising margin debt (money owed to brokers):Seeking AlphaWhen the Fed is pressed hard to raise interest rates and stop printing money, brokers aren’t going to be so free in lending money. Right now, it’s easy money at almost free rates. More to the point, though, when the market does start coming down because of concerns about the Fed cutting off easy money, all that margin debt starts unwinding in a hurry as people are forced to sell assets and reduce their margin debt.As you can also see, huge, rapid spikes like this in market debt tend to happen right before severe crashes:Seeking AlphaIn the short term, fundamentals do not matter. However, in the long term, they matter a lot.Sentiment can cause investors to overlook economic fundamentals for a long time, but a sudden change in perception of fundamentals long overlooked in an environment of high margin debt and bring a rapid correction of one’s frame of reference.Currently, investors are overlooking fundamentals on the expectation the economy and earnings will improve to justify the market overvaluation.That is not likely to happen. Even if it does, perception of the financial landscape (the core value of of money) has been far too optimistic in most circles, as seen by the shock today; but you could see this coming from a year away.The Fed talks as though it still doesn’t see what is coming, but that’s the same Fed that talked about how easy tightening was going to be. It appears it had no idea that it didn’t have an exit plan that wouldn’t send sentiment sharply south and crash the market. Yet, that, too, could be seen from years away by those who were not worshipping at the feet of Father Fed.When, or if, expectations of recovery are disappointed, the market will begin to reprice itself for its intrinsic value. Given that the market is currently trading more than twice the level of underlying economic growth, which is where corporate profits come from, such suggests a significant risk.That’s why the Dow fell 682 points (2%) today, and the S&P fell 2.14% and the NASDAQ, 368 points (2.67%). There wasn’t much of a safe space to be found in stocks.Don’t tell me inflation doesn’t matter to this market. Worst day in six months. More on this in another Patron Post.Now let me, once again, do the kind of corrective reporting I said was going to be essential at this time. First, the fake news:One big reason for the acceleration was  base effects – at this time a year ago, the economy was hit with the worst of the Covid pandemic and inflation was unusually low.CNBCThat isn’t accurate. As I said in my last Patron Post, wherein I also laid out the statistical facts and source to back up my statement,Food prices and many other prices rose like they normally do last March, in spite of the pandemic. In fact, after March, they rose worse than normal with every month in the remainder of 2020 coming in between 3.5% and 4% on an annualized basis.“Inflation Tsunami Sirens Are Screaming!“I noted in particular one economist who said groceries and fuel were now just making up for last time:So,  like groceries, gas is catching up to get back to where we would actually expect it to be….What predominantly happened last year was that fuel prices plummeted due to nothing being transported and lack of vacationing and lack of commuting, but groceries? Come on!“Catching up” may be true for gas if you look back to where prices were in 2018, but it’s total horse manure when you embrace groceries in the comment. Groceries have no catching up to do whatsoever. The average rate of inflation for food for all of 2020 was 3.4%, which compares to rates that 0.3%-2.5% for every year going back until 2011 where the average for the year was. 3.6%.And while overall inflation was less than normal for April through June last year, what does that have to do with this year? [Overall] prices still rose last year; so, it is NOT as if you are comparing to an anomalous year where overall prices fell in those months, meaning some of this year’s gain was just making up for last year’s unusual loss. Then you could truthfully say there was a base effect.So, inflation is coming in much hotter than the Fed led people to believe; and, as my recent Patron Posts have laid out, there is plenty more inflation already baked in on the producer side that will certainly be passed through. I noted you could expect to see that starting to show up on the consumer side now, and you just did. It’s going to be an inflation-hot summer, which can sour sentiment, so stocks won’t take well to that. To be sure, there is a lot of testosterone still determined to press stocks up no matter what, but a hot and humid summer will zap that sentiment, as it did today; and it will keep zapping it no matter what the charts readers are prognosticating based on current sentimental trends. Trends can change quickly in the face of factsif the facts crash in with enough vigor. I think high inflation is the much-feared fact that can break through by stopping the Fed’s plans from moving forward.If the Fed does keep moving forward with the same kind of blind ignorance and stubborn resolve to prove itself right that led it to keep pursuing its economic tightening regime (as I claimed it would do for too long in 2018, contrary to good judgment), it will really be making things worse for itself and harder to tame. I think that is not unlikely.“ There are people who think the Fed is not just behind the curve, they’re maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catch up, it’s too late,” Wall Street veteran Art Cashin said WednesdayCNBCAs one economist noted,“We doubt this report will change the view of officials that inflationary pressures are ‘largely transitory,‘” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.  “It’s just that there’s a lot more  ‘transitory’ than they were expecting.”CNBCIndeed. A lot more. What will they do when they run out of a fake base effect to blame it on?Liked it? Take a second to support David Haggith on Patreon!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}