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2021-12-13

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2021-11-29

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Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>

2021-11-23

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5 Stocks To Watch For November 23, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 23 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>

2021-11-15

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2021-10-21

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PayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，尾巴我赢</blockquote>

2021-10-15

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2021-10-01

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2021-09-17

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2021-09-07

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Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在 2022 年上涨</blockquote>

2021-09-03

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2021-09-03

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2021-09-02

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Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨幅</blockquote>

2021-09-01

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2021-08-31

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2021-08-30

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2021-08-27

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2021-08-27

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Snowflake: Why Jim Cramer Thinks Every Fortune 500 Company Will Be a Customer<blockquote>雪花：为什么吉姆·克莱默认为每家财富 500 强公司都会成为客户</blockquote>

2021-08-26

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2021-08-25

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2021-08-24

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07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2187329491","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do","content":"<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎!</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型、快速传播的 B.1.1.529 冠状病毒株为令人担忧的变种，在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧，此前抛售抹去了标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数 11 月份的涨幅，并导致道琼斯工业平均指数创下 2020 年 10 月 28 日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和中国香港发现并首次在非洲南部发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传染性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五缩短交易时段期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制下表现更好的资产的相应撤离，帮助掩盖了人们通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出大量相关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的道路取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，最新的冠状病毒发展是否会对市场造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预期成功避免从 5% 以上峰值下跌的股市将下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，成交量为 34.79 亿股，远低于年初至今 50.99 亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台上的交易在内的总综合交易量为 87.60 亿美元，而年初至今的平均水平为 111.96 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的 Bill Watts 援引 Arbeter Investments 的 Mark Arbeter 周五的研究写道，标普500周五收于 4,594.62 点后，下一个值得关注的支撑位是 4,570 点，即 50 天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤；4,550，创9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能会因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现更多坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在周五的研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C。全明星图表博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4500点，事情可能会变得危险，低于4500点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后不会有什么好事发生吗？在标普500，4500 以下不会有什么好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有星图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷特写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能会出现更大的问题，18 个月来最严重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士说，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官 Michael Strobaek 在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种的传播速度似乎比之前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）快得多，这一事实需要非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变体在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有COVID疫苗的有效性存在一些问题。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>由分析师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 领导的杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经在逐渐下降，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“临界点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去 24 小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了巨大变化——‘尾随国债拍卖’数量增加、股票市场广度下降以及美国零售偏好似乎没有被注意到的不易察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的股票之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞的研究表明，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快减少央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，这可能不利于风险资产。高盛预计美联储将从每月 150 亿美元缩减规模加大至 300 亿美元，并预计 2022 年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，夏普比率（衡量每单位风险回报的指标）将适用于全球股市。我们预计风险资产和避险资产的表现之间的差距将会缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰富瑞</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>斯特罗贝克写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们将此视为选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“在这一点上，我们重申我们对最新投资委员会报告的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会在任何下跌时买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未显示出重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来捉襟见肘，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流动）尚未特别扩大。”花旗在衡量全球市场时触发了 18 个危险信号中的 7.5 个，而美国则触发了 18 个危险信号中的 9.5 个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港 AXS Investments 首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克 (Greg Bassuk) 表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者遭遇黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度假日购物季的非官方开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是针对那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍然拥有强劲基本面的股票，随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动它们上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在奥密克戎宣言发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，买家似乎都可能在下周生效，并可能影响 2021 年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在12月14日至15日联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前的媒体封锁期开始之前提供他们的最终想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎!</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型、快速传播的 B.1.1.529 冠状病毒株为令人担忧的变种，在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧，此前抛售抹去了标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数 11 月份的涨幅，并导致道琼斯工业平均指数创下 2020 年 10 月 28 日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和中国香港发现并首次在非洲南部发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传染性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五缩短交易时段期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制下表现更好的资产的相应撤离，帮助掩盖了人们通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出大量相关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的道路取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，最新的冠状病毒发展是否会对市场造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预期成功避免从 5% 以上峰值下跌的股市将下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，成交量为 34.79 亿股，远低于年初至今 50.99 亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台上的交易在内的总综合交易量为 87.60 亿美元，而年初至今的平均水平为 111.96 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的 Bill Watts 援引 Arbeter Investments 的 Mark Arbeter 周五的研究写道，标普500周五收于 4,594.62 点后，下一个值得关注的支撑位是 4,570 点，即 50 天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤；4,550，创9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能会因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现更多坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在周五的研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C。全明星图表博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4500点，事情可能会变得危险，低于4500点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后不会有什么好事发生吗？在标普500，4500 以下不会有什么好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有星图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷特写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能会出现更大的问题，18 个月来最严重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士说，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官 Michael Strobaek 在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种的传播速度似乎比之前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）快得多，这一事实需要非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变体在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有COVID疫苗的有效性存在一些问题。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>由分析师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 领导的杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经在逐渐下降，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“临界点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去 24 小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了巨大变化——‘尾随国债拍卖’数量增加、股票市场广度下降以及美国零售偏好似乎没有被注意到的不易察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的股票之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞的研究表明，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快减少央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，这可能不利于风险资产。高盛预计美联储将从每月 150 亿美元缩减规模加大至 300 亿美元，并预计 2022 年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，夏普比率（衡量每单位风险回报的指标）将适用于全球股市。我们预计风险资产和避险资产的表现之间的差距将会缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰富瑞</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>斯特罗贝克写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们将此视为选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“在这一点上，我们重申我们对最新投资委员会报告的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会在任何下跌时买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未显示出重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来捉襟见肘，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流动）尚未特别扩大。”花旗在衡量全球市场时触发了 18 个危险信号中的 7.5 个，而美国则触发了 18 个危险信号中的 9.5 个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港 AXS Investments 首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克 (Greg Bassuk) 表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者遭遇黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度假日购物季的非官方开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是针对那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍然拥有强劲基本面的股票，随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动它们上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在奥密克戎宣言发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，买家似乎都可能在下周生效，并可能影响 2021 年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在12月14日至15日联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前的媒体封锁期开始之前提供他们的最终想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4007":"制药","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PFE":"辉瑞","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4139":"生物科技"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2187329491","content_text":"OMG, omicron!\nThe new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.\nWHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.\nThe emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.\nThe market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.\nWhat isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.\nIn theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.\nThe Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange -owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nStill, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.\nMarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.\n\"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.\nJ.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.\n\"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.\nAll Star Charts\n\"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.\nSome analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.\n\"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.\nAnalyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.\n\"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.\n\"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.\nJefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.\n\"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.\nvia Jefferies\nThe situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.\nStrobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"\n\"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.\nAnalysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.\nCiti Research\nGreg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.\n\"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote\nThat said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.\nEither way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.\nTrading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.\nIt will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"END":0.9,"ICE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875229117,"gmtCreate":1637659472171,"gmtModify":1637659472349,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875229117","repostId":"2185638587","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2185638587","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1637659145,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2185638587?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 17:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For November 23, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 23 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2185638587","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\tWall Street expects  Best Buy Co Inc  (NYSE: BBY) to report quarterly earnings at $1.91 per share on revenue of $11.56 billion before the opening bell. Best Buy shares rose 0.7% to $139.00 in after-hours trading.\n","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b> Best Buy Co Inc </b> (NYSE:BBY) to report quarterly earnings at $1.91 per share on revenue of $11.56 billion before the opening bell. Best Buy shares rose 0.7% to $139.00 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications Inc </b> (NASDAQ:ZM) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter on Monday. The company reported its customers that contribute more than $100,000 in the trailing 12 months totaled 2,507, up 94% year-over-year. Zoom Video shares, however, dropped 6.8% to $225.80 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree, Inc.</a> </b> (NASDAQ:DLTR) to have earned $0.96 per share on revenue of $6.41 billion in the recent quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Dollar Tree shares fell 0.7% to $131.70 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">Urban Outfitters</a>, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:URBN) posted upbeat earnings and sales results for the third quarter. Its same-store sales climbed 14.6% year-over-year during the quarter. Urban Outfitters shares tumbled 12.1% to $32.78 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts expect <b> HP Inc </b> (NYSE:HPQ) to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $15.40 billion after the closing bell. HP shares rose 0.2% to $32.00 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>百思买公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BBY）将公布季度收益，每股 1.91 美元，开盘前营收为 115.6 亿美元。百思买股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.7%，至 139.00 美元。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>视频通信公司</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）周一公布了好于预期的第三季度业绩。该公司报告称，过去 12 个月内捐款超过 10 万美元的客户总数为 2,507 家，同比增长 94%。然而，Zoom Video股价在盘后交易时段下跌 6.8%，至 225.80 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">美元树公司。</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DLTR）最近一个季度每股收益 0.96 美元，营收为 64.1 亿美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。Dollar Tree 股价在盘后交易中下跌 0.7%，至 131.70 美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">城市用品公司</a>，公司。</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：URBN）公布了乐观的第三季度盈利和销售业绩。本季度同店销售额同比增长 14.6%。Urban Outfitters 股价在盘后交易时段下跌 12.1%，至 32.78 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>惠普公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）收盘后公布季度收益为每股 0.88 美元，营收为 154.0 亿美元。惠普股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.2%，至 32.00 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For November 23, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 23 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For November 23, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 23 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-23 17:19</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b> Best Buy Co Inc </b> (NYSE:BBY) to report quarterly earnings at $1.91 per share on revenue of $11.56 billion before the opening bell. Best Buy shares rose 0.7% to $139.00 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications Inc </b> (NASDAQ:ZM) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter on Monday. The company reported its customers that contribute more than $100,000 in the trailing 12 months totaled 2,507, up 94% year-over-year. Zoom Video shares, however, dropped 6.8% to $225.80 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree, Inc.</a> </b> (NASDAQ:DLTR) to have earned $0.96 per share on revenue of $6.41 billion in the recent quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Dollar Tree shares fell 0.7% to $131.70 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">Urban Outfitters</a>, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:URBN) posted upbeat earnings and sales results for the third quarter. Its same-store sales climbed 14.6% year-over-year during the quarter. Urban Outfitters shares tumbled 12.1% to $32.78 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts expect <b> HP Inc </b> (NYSE:HPQ) to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $15.40 billion after the closing bell. HP shares rose 0.2% to $32.00 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>百思买公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BBY）将公布季度收益，每股 1.91 美元，开盘前营收为 115.6 亿美元。百思买股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.7%，至 139.00 美元。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>视频通信公司</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ZM）周一公布了好于预期的第三季度业绩。该公司报告称，过去 12 个月内捐款超过 10 万美元的客户总数为 2,507 家，同比增长 94%。然而，Zoom Video股价在盘后交易时段下跌 6.8%，至 225.80 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">美元树公司。</a></b>（纳斯达克股票代码：DLTR）最近一个季度每股收益 0.96 美元，营收为 64.1 亿美元。该公司将在开盘前发布财报。Dollar Tree 股价在盘后交易中下跌 0.7%，至 131.70 美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">城市用品公司</a>，公司。</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：URBN）公布了乐观的第三季度盈利和销售业绩。本季度同店销售额同比增长 14.6%。Urban Outfitters 股价在盘后交易时段下跌 12.1%，至 32.78 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>惠普公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）收盘后公布季度收益为每股 0.88 美元，营收为 154.0 亿美元。惠普股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.2%，至 32.00 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","DLTR":"美元树公司","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4094":"服装零售","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4114":"综合货品商店","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BK4528":"SaaS概念","ZM":"Zoom","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BBY":"百思买","BK4504":"桥水持仓","URBN":"都市服饰"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2185638587","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects  Best Buy Co Inc  (NYSE:BBY) to report quarterly earnings at $1.91 per share on revenue of $11.56 billion before the opening bell. Best Buy shares rose 0.7% to $139.00 in after-hours trading.\nZoom Video Communications Inc  (NASDAQ:ZM) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter on Monday. The company reported its customers that contribute more than $100,000 in the trailing 12 months totaled 2,507, up 94% year-over-year. Zoom Video shares, however, dropped 6.8% to $225.80 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting  Dollar Tree, Inc.  (NASDAQ:DLTR) to have earned $0.96 per share on revenue of $6.41 billion in the recent quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Dollar Tree shares fell 0.7% to $131.70 in after-hours trading.\n\n\nUrban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) posted upbeat earnings and sales results for the third quarter. Its same-store sales climbed 14.6% year-over-year during the quarter. Urban Outfitters shares tumbled 12.1% to $32.78 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect  HP Inc  (NYSE:HPQ) to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $15.40 billion after the closing bell. HP shares rose 0.2% to $32.00 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9,"BBY":0.9,"URBN":0.9,"DLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873248493,"gmtCreate":1636952669999,"gmtModify":1636952670221,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873248493","repostId":"2183536049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853845750,"gmtCreate":1634792641753,"gmtModify":1634792642448,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853845750","repostId":"1118528593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118528593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634788571,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118528593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，尾巴我赢</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118528593","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFirst, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.\nSecond, I explain how this improv","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.</li>  <li>Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.</li>  <li>Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.</li>  <li>Fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44adcd1b54b3a4b65c37aded8b348f75\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1009\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sean Gallup/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，我简单讨论一下关于PYPL购买PIN的新闻。</li><li>其次，我解释了这如何为投资者提高了 PYPL 的价格。</li><li>第三，我描述了PINS如何适应PYPL，以及它是如何增值的。</li><li>第四，我还概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>肖恩·盖洛普/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.</p><p><blockquote>本文的目的是根据最近关于PYPL收购Pinterest（PINS）的新闻，对PayPal（PYPL）有一个全局。坦率地说，我不在乎他们是否购买别针或交易失败。这就是我要报道的。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.</p><p><blockquote>文章是这样展开的。首先，我简单讨论一下关于PYPL购买PIN的新闻。其次，我解释了这如何为投资者提高了 PYPL 的价格。第三，我描述了引脚如何适应PYPL，它可能是好的。然而，第四，我也概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The \"Shocking\" News</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人震惊的消息</b></blockquote></p><p> If you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.</p><p><blockquote>如果你正在读这篇文章，那么你可能已经熟悉这个消息了。据彭博社报道， PayPal 正在探索收购Pinterest。</blockquote></p><p>   San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said.    That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58.  And, as a result, here's what happened:</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，总部位于加州圣何塞的PayPal最近就潜在交易与Pinterest接洽，要求匿名，因为谈判是私下进行的。知情人士称，两家公司已经讨论了每股 70 美元左右的潜在价格。这将使Pinterest整个公司（包括其 B 类股票）的估值约为 450 亿美元。在这个水平上的交易将比Pinterest周二 55.58 美元的收盘价溢价约 26%。结果，事情是这样的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cbd27e17802078aeed4126cdf0e93d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会笑我展示的是六个月的图表，这才是重点。六个月内，PYPL 从 264 美元跌至 258 美元，略有下降。PINS 实际上在六个月内下跌了约 25%，从 71 美元降至 63 美元，跌幅相当大。对于 PINS 来说，今天 13% 的涨幅是一份真正的礼物，至少就价格走势而言是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,<i>in just one day</i>, it's easy to see huge changes:</p><p><blockquote>让我们在更短的时间内再来看看这个。仅从价格角度来看，<i>仅仅一天</i>，很容易看到巨大的变化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a27f8e192506cc9637083edd81c405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa06cd8a6b48ca229a014e6c5440d294\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，看起来确实像是PINS着火了，PYPL受到了打击。但是，根据我上面的第一张图表，即使在今天的走势之后，PINS 的价格仍然疲软。而且，PYPL 已接近六个月前的盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> In an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.</p><p><blockquote>从绝对意义上来说，我对PINS的关心远不如PYPL，因为我拥有PYPL，我喜欢这家公司。所以，有偏见，只是100%清楚。</blockquote></p><p> With that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -<i>especially PYPL investors</i>.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这种观点，我的偏见也充分显现出来，让我们看看这一切对投资者意味着什么 -<i>尤其是PYPL投资者</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Heads I Win, Part 1</p><p><blockquote>我赢的头，第 1 部分</blockquote></p><p> So, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.</p><p><blockquote>所以，当消息传出时，我预计PYPL会小幅下跌。当我看到跌破260美元时，我变得贪婪。郑重声明，我花255.62美元买了更多的PYPL，脸上带着微笑。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)</p><p><blockquote>PYPL变得更便宜，但价值与1-2天前相同，甚至更好。我稍后会解释更多。现在，只考虑我的观点，即PYPL的价格走低了，所以我的钱得到了更多。因为一些适度的好消息，我最终得到了5%的折扣。（稍后会有更多内容。）</blockquote></p><p> So, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在继续之前，我强烈建议你回顾一下我在2021年8月初写的一篇文章：PayPal：明星业务。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PYPL is in a high growth industry.</li>  <li>PYPL commands significant market share.</li>  <li>PYPL is growing very fast.</li>  <li>PYPL is innovating like crazy.</li> </ul> Furthermore, I was very clear:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PYPL 处于高增长行业。</li><li>PYPL拥有巨大的市场份额。</li><li>PYPL发展非常快。</li><li>PYPL正在疯狂创新。</li></ul>此外，我非常清楚：</blockquote></p><p>   I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens.  Therefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,<i>it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我非常看好PYPL低于250美元，看好275美元。事实上，我最近以275美元的价格建立了一个首发位置。如果发生这种情况，我会继续在下降过程中添加少量。因此，在255美元的价格下，我对购买更多PYPL感到非常满意。在快速增长的市场中，这是高质量、管理良好的业务。简而言之，当价格下跌5%左右时，<i>这仅仅意味着以折扣价获得更多 PYPL</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tails I Win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尾巴我赢了</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们假设PINS交易失败了。在这种情况下，我很高兴，因为我能够以更低的价格购买更多的PYPL。还是同一家公司，但更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Furthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.</p><p><blockquote>此外，让我们假设交易失败，市场对此进行了反思。我的感觉是，投资者会简单地将 PYPL 重新定价，接近 270 美元至 275 美元或更高。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道这种“重新评级”需要多长时间，但没有理由认为购买别针的提议会永久损害PYPL。我就是看不出来。提出报价通常不会造成任何真正的损害。如果你有其他数据，请提供。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Heads I Win, Part 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢的头，第 2 部分</b></blockquote></p><p> With all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:</p><p><blockquote>排除了所有这些，也许 PINS 是一家好公司，这对 PYPL 也有好处。嗯，从表面上看，我喜欢我在这里看到的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4128074a4ab4bea3095477286834fe0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business of Apps</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：应用业务</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:</p><p><blockquote>而且，尽管 2021 年第二季度有所下降，但用户群正在强劲增长：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2dc758204cd1b7173cfdc68b4af6f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business of Apps</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：应用业务</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here's more color on that drop:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该滴的更多颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3819d2ba7bf53060011a2edb152ce91f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Pinterest 2021 年第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.</p><p><blockquote>下降并没有让我太担心。毕竟，由于疫情在家工作的影响，Pinterest享受到了提振。此外，你可以看到实际的同比数字，一个季度到一个季度，它们至少令人满意。</blockquote></p><p> For what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann&nbsp;explains the drop off&nbsp;it quite well:</p><p><blockquote>PINS 首席执行官本杰明·西尔伯曼 (Benjamin Silbermann) 很好地解释了放弃它的原因：</blockquote></p><p>   One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs.  That perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.<i>Moving on.</i></p><p><blockquote>第一，在家的总体时间发生了变化。第二，去年特别相关的许多用例，比如重新装修你的家，在家教育你的孩子，在家做饭，这些都减少了。现在说随着时间的推移，这些将如何正常化还为时过早。我不会完全相同地描述当前的用户行为或当前的社会环境，但我们看到了一些有希望的早期迹象。这也完全符合我的直觉。<i>继续前进。</i></blockquote></p><p> I'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:</p><p><blockquote>我也很喜欢这些数据，正确地分解以供检查：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c5df28f93bef395b5a99aa6914b196\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Pinterest 2021 年第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我确实关心这些数字，以及随着时间的推移的改进，但我更感兴趣的是PYPL在这里可能会看到什么。也就是说，用户有价值，因为用户在购物，在购买。想象一下，如果PYPL能够通过这些用户推动更多的电子商务，或者任何类型的交易。显然，他们花钱。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the&nbsp;usage, adoption and general activity flow:</p><p><blockquote>考虑使用、采用和一般活动流程：</blockquote></p><p>   “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has&nbsp;  <b>380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month</b>.” [Emphasis: Author's]  User activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, and<i>literally shopping</i>. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:</p><p><blockquote>“彭博情报高级金融科技行业分析师 Julie Chariell 说：”如果PayPal真的收购Pinterest，这家金融科技公司将在社交媒体上获得与 Instagram 相媲美的影响力，吸引高度参与度的消费者，并帮助商家销售产品。“PayPal获益匪浅： Pinterest获益匪浅<b>3.8亿月活跃用户每月使用该应用程序37次，而PayPal用户每月活跃8到9次</b>[强调：作者的]用户活动非常棒。现在，想象一下用户活动不仅仅是看有趣的猫视频或大峡谷的图片。相反，Pinterest上的活动非常注重浏览购买，并且<i>字面上的购物</i>我的意思是，这几乎就是我收集到的全部重点。数据说明了一切：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.</li>  <li>4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.</li>  <li>Half of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.</li>  <li>Nearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.</li>  <li>85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.</li> </ul> And, PINS is looking to continue down the&nbsp;user monetization path.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>近80%的美国千禧一代女性使用Pinterest。</li><li>五分之四的美国妈妈活跃在Pinterest上。</li><li>一半的美国用户也在使用Pinterest购物。</li><li>近十分之九的用户在Pinterest上计划购买和寻找灵感。</li><li>85%的用户是根据看到品牌别针进行购买的。</li></ul>此外，PINS希望继续走用户货币化的道路。</blockquote></p><p>   “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.”  And, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:</p><p><blockquote>“Pinterest一直致力于提高其平台的购物能力，”他指出，“在Pinterest扩大 Shopify 合作伙伴关系的推动下”，第二季度产品库存增长了近 50%。而且，我听到很多人谈论PYPL扩大用户群的计划，因为如果他们拥有用户，他们就有一条相对容易的货币化路径。例如：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now,  <b>it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025</b>. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's]  I definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -<i>I don't hate this deal</i>, and that's usually a good sign.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal拥有超过 4 亿注册用户，他们是客户，但他们也是未来的产品，因为PayPal在其平台上也拥有超过 3000 万商家，这是其目前的主要目标之一，<b>它正在努力扩大用户群，力争到 2025 年拥有 7.5 亿用户</b>但它正试图让他们在平台上进行越来越多的交易，这就是为什么它推出了这些新产品和服务，例如先买后付；加密货币；像这样的事情。它希望基本上了解消费者的所有交易、所有金融交易，因为这样它就可以获取这些数据并将其提供给商家。【强调：作者的】我绝对看到PYPL如何帮助PINS社交电子商务更上一层楼，甚至更有效地与Shopify（商店）合作。正如我刚才对几个人说的-<i>我不讨厌这笔交易</i>这通常是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tails I Win, Part 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢的尾巴，第 2 部分</b></blockquote></p><p> At this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，根据上面的数据，你可能非常渴望看到PYPL购买PIN。我当然不反对，知道我所知道的。PINS用户相当狂热，我可以看到巨大的协同作用。这几乎让我想起了PYPL和eBay（易贝）曾经是如何在一个屋檐下的。但是，我认为在这个时代，PINS要优越得多。也就是说，在这一点上，PYPL比易贝做得更好——我对此毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> I should also mention that&nbsp;the price is better now&nbsp;than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:</p><p><blockquote>我还应该提到，现在的价格比微软 (MSFT) 考虑交易时要好：</blockquote></p><p>   Price tag–wise,  <b>Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high</b>&nbsp;in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's]  Even if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.</p><p><blockquote>就价格标签而言，<b>Pinterest股价较历史高点下跌约 30%</b>2 月份，由于该平台一直在流失用户，这一数字比今年早些时候有报道称微软正在考虑以约 510 亿美元收购该公司时有所折扣。【强调：作者】即使交易失败，我仍然认为对话是富有成效的，我仍然认为未来一些合作活动会增加。你不需要结婚才能在派对上跳舞。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's&nbsp;messy:</p><p><blockquote>此外，我不喜欢大交易，但我确实喜欢聪明的对话。换句话说，PYPL 计划斥资 450 亿美元购买 PINS。太大了。而且很乱：</blockquote></p><p>   Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “  <b>would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand</b>, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's]  And...</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行的 El-Assal 评论说，收购Pinterest将是PayPal历史上最大的一笔交易，而且 “<b>需要不同的资金组合，而不仅仅是手头的现金</b>就像以前的收购一样。”【强调：作者的】和……</blockquote></p><p>   It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016.  They can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&amp;A. According to the<i>Harvard Business Review</i>:</p><p><blockquote>这将是社交媒体公司最大的收购，超过了微软公司在2016年以262亿美元收购LinkedIn。他们不能只用现金买。对于 PYPL 来说，这不是一个简单的“附加”。而且，老实说，如果失败了，我会稍微欢呼一下，因为这项研究反对大型并购。根据<i>哈佛商业评论</i>:</blockquote></p><p>   ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%.  <b>Wrap-Up</b></p><p><blockquote>一项又一项研究表明，并购的失败率在70%到90%之间。<b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> I hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)</p><p><blockquote>我希望有几件事是清楚的。首先，我看好 PYPL，我很高兴以 250 美元左右的价格购买。我甚至愿意买275美元，但当然，我会接受更低的价格。（感谢您的任何折扣。）</blockquote></p><p> Second,<i>I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL</i>. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.</p><p><blockquote>第二，<i>我确实明白 PINS 对 PYPL 来说是一笔不错的购买</i>.这符合他们的用户增长和一般业务增长的使命。收入和用户货币化机会即使不是很好，也很有趣。此外，用户群本身喜欢购物和购买，这对PYPL来说是完美的。</blockquote></p><p> Third, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,<i>Godzilla-size M&amp;A doesn't have a great record</i>.</p><p><blockquote>第三，如果交易没有通过，那么我不会震惊，也不会难过。PIN 的价格似乎大致合适，甚至可能略有折扣 - 特别是考虑到其对 PYPL 的潜在长期价值。但是，如果谈判失败，也不会让我跳过一个节拍，或者对PYPL失去信心。事实上，我甚至会感到如释重负。再一次，<i>哥斯拉规模的并购并没有很好的记录</i>.</blockquote></p><p> And, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我看到的最大风险很简单。也就是说，PYPL决定把报价越来越高。目前，作为 PYPL 股东，这个价格是可以接受的。但是，如果价格标签继续上涨，不管出于什么原因，那么我会不那么热情。事实上，如果要约价格上涨太多，我可能不得不修改我的整个PYPL论文。资本配置不良是致命的。我想要一笔大交易，或者没有交易。我们拭目以待。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，尾巴我赢</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，尾巴我赢</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.</li>  <li>Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.</li>  <li>Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.</li>  <li>Fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44adcd1b54b3a4b65c37aded8b348f75\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1009\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sean Gallup/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首先，我简单讨论一下关于PYPL购买PIN的新闻。</li><li>其次，我解释了这如何为投资者提高了 PYPL 的价格。</li><li>第三，我描述了PINS如何适应PYPL，以及它是如何增值的。</li><li>第四，我还概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>肖恩·盖洛普/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.</p><p><blockquote>本文的目的是根据最近关于PYPL收购Pinterest（PINS）的新闻，对PayPal（PYPL）有一个全局。坦率地说，我不在乎他们是否购买别针或交易失败。这就是我要报道的。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.</p><p><blockquote>文章是这样展开的。首先，我简单讨论一下关于PYPL购买PIN的新闻。其次，我解释了这如何为投资者提高了 PYPL 的价格。第三，我描述了引脚如何适应PYPL，它可能是好的。然而，第四，我也概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The \"Shocking\" News</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人震惊的消息</b></blockquote></p><p> If you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.</p><p><blockquote>如果你正在读这篇文章，那么你可能已经熟悉这个消息了。据彭博社报道， PayPal 正在探索收购Pinterest。</blockquote></p><p>   San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said.    That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58.  And, as a result, here's what happened:</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，总部位于加州圣何塞的PayPal最近就潜在交易与Pinterest接洽，要求匿名，因为谈判是私下进行的。知情人士称，两家公司已经讨论了每股 70 美元左右的潜在价格。这将使Pinterest整个公司（包括其 B 类股票）的估值约为 450 亿美元。在这个水平上的交易将比Pinterest周二 55.58 美元的收盘价溢价约 26%。结果，事情是这样的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cbd27e17802078aeed4126cdf0e93d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会笑我展示的是六个月的图表，这才是重点。六个月内，PYPL 从 264 美元跌至 258 美元，略有下降。PINS 实际上在六个月内下跌了约 25%，从 71 美元降至 63 美元，跌幅相当大。对于 PINS 来说，今天 13% 的涨幅是一份真正的礼物，至少就价格走势而言是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,<i>in just one day</i>, it's easy to see huge changes:</p><p><blockquote>让我们在更短的时间内再来看看这个。仅从价格角度来看，<i>仅仅一天</i>，很容易看到巨大的变化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a27f8e192506cc9637083edd81c405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa06cd8a6b48ca229a014e6c5440d294\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，看起来确实像是PINS着火了，PYPL受到了打击。但是，根据我上面的第一张图表，即使在今天的走势之后，PINS 的价格仍然疲软。而且，PYPL 已接近六个月前的盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> In an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.</p><p><blockquote>从绝对意义上来说，我对PINS的关心远不如PYPL，因为我拥有PYPL，我喜欢这家公司。所以，有偏见，只是100%清楚。</blockquote></p><p> With that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -<i>especially PYPL investors</i>.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这种观点，我的偏见也充分显现出来，让我们看看这一切对投资者意味着什么 -<i>尤其是PYPL投资者</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Heads I Win, Part 1</p><p><blockquote>我赢的头，第 1 部分</blockquote></p><p> So, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.</p><p><blockquote>所以，当消息传出时，我预计PYPL会小幅下跌。当我看到跌破260美元时，我变得贪婪。郑重声明，我花255.62美元买了更多的PYPL，脸上带着微笑。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)</p><p><blockquote>PYPL变得更便宜，但价值与1-2天前相同，甚至更好。我稍后会解释更多。现在，只考虑我的观点，即PYPL的价格走低了，所以我的钱得到了更多。因为一些适度的好消息，我最终得到了5%的折扣。（稍后会有更多内容。）</blockquote></p><p> So, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在继续之前，我强烈建议你回顾一下我在2021年8月初写的一篇文章：PayPal：明星业务。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PYPL is in a high growth industry.</li>  <li>PYPL commands significant market share.</li>  <li>PYPL is growing very fast.</li>  <li>PYPL is innovating like crazy.</li> </ul> Furthermore, I was very clear:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PYPL 处于高增长行业。</li><li>PYPL拥有巨大的市场份额。</li><li>PYPL发展非常快。</li><li>PYPL正在疯狂创新。</li></ul>此外，我非常清楚：</blockquote></p><p>   I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens.  Therefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,<i>it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我非常看好PYPL低于250美元，看好275美元。事实上，我最近以275美元的价格建立了一个首发位置。如果发生这种情况，我会继续在下降过程中添加少量。因此，在255美元的价格下，我对购买更多PYPL感到非常满意。在快速增长的市场中，这是高质量、管理良好的业务。简而言之，当价格下跌5%左右时，<i>这仅仅意味着以折扣价获得更多 PYPL</i>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tails I Win</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尾巴我赢了</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们假设PINS交易失败了。在这种情况下，我很高兴，因为我能够以更低的价格购买更多的PYPL。还是同一家公司，但更划算。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Furthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.</p><p><blockquote>此外，让我们假设交易失败，市场对此进行了反思。我的感觉是，投资者会简单地将 PYPL 重新定价，接近 270 美元至 275 美元或更高。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道这种“重新评级”需要多长时间，但没有理由认为购买别针的提议会永久损害PYPL。我就是看不出来。提出报价通常不会造成任何真正的损害。如果你有其他数据，请提供。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Heads I Win, Part 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢的头，第 2 部分</b></blockquote></p><p> With all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:</p><p><blockquote>排除了所有这些，也许 PINS 是一家好公司，这对 PYPL 也有好处。嗯，从表面上看，我喜欢我在这里看到的：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4128074a4ab4bea3095477286834fe0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business of Apps</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：应用业务</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:</p><p><blockquote>而且，尽管 2021 年第二季度有所下降，但用户群正在强劲增长：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2dc758204cd1b7173cfdc68b4af6f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business of Apps</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：应用业务</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here's more color on that drop:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该滴的更多颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3819d2ba7bf53060011a2edb152ce91f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Pinterest 2021 年第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.</p><p><blockquote>下降并没有让我太担心。毕竟，由于疫情在家工作的影响，Pinterest享受到了提振。此外，你可以看到实际的同比数字，一个季度到一个季度，它们至少令人满意。</blockquote></p><p> For what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann&nbsp;explains the drop off&nbsp;it quite well:</p><p><blockquote>PINS 首席执行官本杰明·西尔伯曼 (Benjamin Silbermann) 很好地解释了放弃它的原因：</blockquote></p><p>   One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs.  That perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.<i>Moving on.</i></p><p><blockquote>第一，在家的总体时间发生了变化。第二，去年特别相关的许多用例，比如重新装修你的家，在家教育你的孩子，在家做饭，这些都减少了。现在说随着时间的推移，这些将如何正常化还为时过早。我不会完全相同地描述当前的用户行为或当前的社会环境，但我们看到了一些有希望的早期迹象。这也完全符合我的直觉。<i>继续前进。</i></blockquote></p><p> I'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:</p><p><blockquote>我也很喜欢这些数据，正确地分解以供检查：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c5df28f93bef395b5a99aa6914b196\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Pinterest 2021 年第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我确实关心这些数字，以及随着时间的推移的改进，但我更感兴趣的是PYPL在这里可能会看到什么。也就是说，用户有价值，因为用户在购物，在购买。想象一下，如果PYPL能够通过这些用户推动更多的电子商务，或者任何类型的交易。显然，他们花钱。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the&nbsp;usage, adoption and general activity flow:</p><p><blockquote>考虑使用、采用和一般活动流程：</blockquote></p><p>   “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has&nbsp;  <b>380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month</b>.” [Emphasis: Author's]  User activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, and<i>literally shopping</i>. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:</p><p><blockquote>“彭博情报高级金融科技行业分析师 Julie Chariell 说：”如果PayPal真的收购Pinterest，这家金融科技公司将在社交媒体上获得与 Instagram 相媲美的影响力，吸引高度参与度的消费者，并帮助商家销售产品。“PayPal获益匪浅： Pinterest获益匪浅<b>3.8亿月活跃用户每月使用该应用程序37次，而PayPal用户每月活跃8到9次</b>[强调：作者的]用户活动非常棒。现在，想象一下用户活动不仅仅是看有趣的猫视频或大峡谷的图片。相反，Pinterest上的活动非常注重浏览购买，并且<i>字面上的购物</i>我的意思是，这几乎就是我收集到的全部重点。数据说明了一切：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.</li>  <li>4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.</li>  <li>Half of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.</li>  <li>Nearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.</li>  <li>85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.</li> </ul> And, PINS is looking to continue down the&nbsp;user monetization path.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>近80%的美国千禧一代女性使用Pinterest。</li><li>五分之四的美国妈妈活跃在Pinterest上。</li><li>一半的美国用户也在使用Pinterest购物。</li><li>近十分之九的用户在Pinterest上计划购买和寻找灵感。</li><li>85%的用户是根据看到品牌别针进行购买的。</li></ul>此外，PINS希望继续走用户货币化的道路。</blockquote></p><p>   “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.”  And, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:</p><p><blockquote>“Pinterest一直致力于提高其平台的购物能力，”他指出，“在Pinterest扩大 Shopify 合作伙伴关系的推动下”，第二季度产品库存增长了近 50%。而且，我听到很多人谈论PYPL扩大用户群的计划，因为如果他们拥有用户，他们就有一条相对容易的货币化路径。例如：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now,  <b>it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025</b>. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's]  I definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -<i>I don't hate this deal</i>, and that's usually a good sign.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal拥有超过 4 亿注册用户，他们是客户，但他们也是未来的产品，因为PayPal在其平台上也拥有超过 3000 万商家，这是其目前的主要目标之一，<b>它正在努力扩大用户群，力争到 2025 年拥有 7.5 亿用户</b>但它正试图让他们在平台上进行越来越多的交易，这就是为什么它推出了这些新产品和服务，例如先买后付；加密货币；像这样的事情。它希望基本上了解消费者的所有交易、所有金融交易，因为这样它就可以获取这些数据并将其提供给商家。【强调：作者的】我绝对看到PYPL如何帮助PINS社交电子商务更上一层楼，甚至更有效地与Shopify（商店）合作。正如我刚才对几个人说的-<i>我不讨厌这笔交易</i>这通常是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tails I Win, Part 2</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我赢的尾巴，第 2 部分</b></blockquote></p><p> At this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，根据上面的数据，你可能非常渴望看到PYPL购买PIN。我当然不反对，知道我所知道的。PINS用户相当狂热，我可以看到巨大的协同作用。这几乎让我想起了PYPL和eBay（易贝）曾经是如何在一个屋檐下的。但是，我认为在这个时代，PINS要优越得多。也就是说，在这一点上，PYPL比易贝做得更好——我对此毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> I should also mention that&nbsp;the price is better now&nbsp;than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:</p><p><blockquote>我还应该提到，现在的价格比微软 (MSFT) 考虑交易时要好：</blockquote></p><p>   Price tag–wise,  <b>Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high</b>&nbsp;in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's]  Even if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.</p><p><blockquote>就价格标签而言，<b>Pinterest股价较历史高点下跌约 30%</b>2 月份，由于该平台一直在流失用户，这一数字比今年早些时候有报道称微软正在考虑以约 510 亿美元收购该公司时有所折扣。【强调：作者】即使交易失败，我仍然认为对话是富有成效的，我仍然认为未来一些合作活动会增加。你不需要结婚才能在派对上跳舞。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's&nbsp;messy:</p><p><blockquote>此外，我不喜欢大交易，但我确实喜欢聪明的对话。换句话说，PYPL 计划斥资 450 亿美元购买 PINS。太大了。而且很乱：</blockquote></p><p>   Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “  <b>would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand</b>, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's]  And...</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行的 El-Assal 评论说，收购Pinterest将是PayPal历史上最大的一笔交易，而且 “<b>需要不同的资金组合，而不仅仅是手头的现金</b>就像以前的收购一样。”【强调：作者的】和……</blockquote></p><p>   It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016.  They can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&amp;A. According to the<i>Harvard Business Review</i>:</p><p><blockquote>这将是社交媒体公司最大的收购，超过了微软公司在2016年以262亿美元收购LinkedIn。他们不能只用现金买。对于 PYPL 来说，这不是一个简单的“附加”。而且，老实说，如果失败了，我会稍微欢呼一下，因为这项研究反对大型并购。根据<i>哈佛商业评论</i>:</blockquote></p><p>   ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%.  <b>Wrap-Up</b></p><p><blockquote>一项又一项研究表明，并购的失败率在70%到90%之间。<b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> I hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)</p><p><blockquote>我希望有几件事是清楚的。首先，我看好 PYPL，我很高兴以 250 美元左右的价格购买。我甚至愿意买275美元，但当然，我会接受更低的价格。（感谢您的任何折扣。）</blockquote></p><p> Second,<i>I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL</i>. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.</p><p><blockquote>第二，<i>我确实明白 PINS 对 PYPL 来说是一笔不错的购买</i>.这符合他们的用户增长和一般业务增长的使命。收入和用户货币化机会即使不是很好，也很有趣。此外，用户群本身喜欢购物和购买，这对PYPL来说是完美的。</blockquote></p><p> Third, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,<i>Godzilla-size M&amp;A doesn't have a great record</i>.</p><p><blockquote>第三，如果交易没有通过，那么我不会震惊，也不会难过。PIN 的价格似乎大致合适，甚至可能略有折扣 - 特别是考虑到其对 PYPL 的潜在长期价值。但是，如果谈判失败，也不会让我跳过一个节拍，或者对PYPL失去信心。事实上，我甚至会感到如释重负。再一次，<i>哥斯拉规模的并购并没有很好的记录</i>.</blockquote></p><p> And, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我看到的最大风险很简单。也就是说，PYPL决定把报价越来越高。目前，作为 PYPL 股东，这个价格是可以接受的。但是，如果价格标签继续上涨，不管出于什么原因，那么我会不那么热情。事实上，如果要约价格上涨太多，我可能不得不修改我的整个PYPL论文。资本配置不良是致命的。我想要一笔大交易，或者没有交易。我们拭目以待。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460962-paypal-stock-pinterest-acquisition\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460962-paypal-stock-pinterest-acquisition","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118528593","content_text":"Summary\n\nFirst, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.\nSecond, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.\nThird, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.\nFourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.\n\nSean Gallup/Getty Images News\nThe purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.\nHere's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.\nThe \"Shocking\" News\nIf you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.\n\n San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said.\n\n\n That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58.\n\nAnd, as a result, here's what happened:\nData by YCharts\nYou might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.\nLet's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,in just one day, it's easy to see huge changes:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.\nIn an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.\nWith that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -especially PYPL investors.\nHeads I Win, Part 1\nSo, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.\nPYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)\nSo, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.\n\nPYPL is in a high growth industry.\nPYPL commands significant market share.\nPYPL is growing very fast.\nPYPL is innovating like crazy.\n\nFurthermore, I was very clear:\n\n I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens.\n\nTherefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount.\nTails I Win\nNow, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.\nFurthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.\nI have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.\nHeads I Win, Part 2\nWith all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:\nSource: Business of Apps\nAnd, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:\nSource: Business of Apps\nHere's more color on that drop:\nSource: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report\nThe drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.\nFor what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann explains the drop off it quite well:\n\n One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs.\n\nThat perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.Moving on.\nI'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:\nSource: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report\nWhile I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.\nConsider the usage, adoption and general activity flow:\n\n “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has \n 380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month.” [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nUser activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, andliterally shopping. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:\n\nNearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.\n4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.\nHalf of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.\nNearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.\n85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.\n\nAnd, PINS is looking to continue down the user monetization path.\n\n “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.”\n\nAnd, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:\n\n PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now,\n it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nI definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -I don't hate this deal, and that's usually a good sign.\nTails I Win, Part 2\nAt this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.\nI should also mention that the price is better now than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:\n\n Price tag–wise,\n Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nEven if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.\nFurthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's messy:\n\n Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “\n would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nAnd...\n\n It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016.\n\nThey can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&A. According to theHarvard Business Review:\n\n ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%.\n\nWrap-Up\nI hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)\nSecond,I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.\nThird, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,Godzilla-size M&A doesn't have a great record.\nAnd, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825752215,"gmtCreate":1634258989397,"gmtModify":1634274403794,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825752215","repostId":"2175185761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864104878,"gmtCreate":1633066245323,"gmtModify":1633066245974,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864104878","repostId":"2172095220","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884974417,"gmtCreate":1631852130839,"gmtModify":1631890506184,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884974417","repostId":"1101501778","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817515415,"gmtCreate":1630974701137,"gmtModify":1631890506196,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817515415","repostId":"1113754693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113754693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630974255,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1113754693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 08:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在 2022 年上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113754693","media":"Nikkei Asia","summary":"Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns\nTSMC's move to ","content":"<p><div> Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns TSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji TAIPEI...</p><p><blockquote><div>在没有重大经济放缓的情况下，半导体和电子产品价格将会上涨台积电提高芯片生产服务费的举措让许多业内人士感到意外。©法新社/时事台北...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在 2022 年上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在 2022 年上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nikkei Asia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 08:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns TSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji TAIPEI...</p><p><blockquote><div>在没有重大经济放缓的情况下，半导体和电子产品价格将会上涨台积电提高芯片生产服务费的举措让许多业内人士感到意外。©法新社/时事台北...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">Nikkei Asia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UMC":"联电","QCOM":"高通","AAPL":"苹果","TSM":"台积电","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113754693","content_text":"Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns\nTSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji\nTAIPEI/HSINCHU, Taiwan -- The price of chips -- and the electronic devices they power -- are on track to rise into 2022 as the world's biggest contract chipmaker joins its rivals in ramping up production fees.\nPrices of semiconductors have been climbing since the last quarter of 2020 amid a global supply crunch. But news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was preparing its biggest price hike in a decade still came as a shock to some, bringing home just how entrenched chip price inflation has become.\nTSMC controls over half the global foundry market, making chips for the likes of Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Known for its cutting-edge tech and high quality, the Taiwanese company normally commands production fees around 20% higher than its rivals, according to industry insiders.\nSince the end of last year, however, smaller foundries have repeatedly ramped up their own prices, so that United Microelectronics, the world's No. 3 player, now charges more than its bigger compatriot for some services, four industry executives told Nikkei Asia.\nThese higher prices stem from a range of factors, including higher material and logistics costs as well as the race by device makers to secure adequate chip supplies, that have emerged since the chip shortage first began to bite late last year.\nTSMC has been slower than most other chip companies in raising its prices, in part because it already enjoyed such a hefty premium. But with investment costs also rising -- the company has pledged $100 billion in spending over the next three years -- the chip giant felt compelled to pass on some of the burden, sources briefed on the matter said.\nMore urgently, industry sources say, the company is keen to weed out so-called double-booking, in which clients place orders for more chips than they actually need in hopes of securing production line space and support from contract chipmakers amid the global supply crunch. This, in turn, has made it difficult for TSMC to grasp the \"real demand\" picture, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei.\nClient reactions to the planned price rise are mixed.\n\"We are glad that TSMC eventually adjusted prices so that it could fend off the practice of double-booking, when industry players race to secure enough chip production capacity during a shortage,\" K.S. Pua, chairman and CEO of Phison Electronics, told Nikkei. The leading NAND flash controller chip and solution provider is a client of both TSMC and UMC.\n\"We are still short of supplies and want more chip capacity to support our growth for the second half of 2021,\" Pua said.\nPhison raised its own chip prices around April this year to reflect the rising supply chain costs, and Pua said his company will have discussions with clients about further increases.\nOthers, however, have expressed concern over whether they will be able to pass on these higher costs to customers.\n\"We are all in a great shock and all of our account managers need to speak to our customers to see if we can renegotiate some of the contracts,\" a chip executive told Nikkei. \"We haven't seen TSMC introduce such a broad rate increase in over a decade.\"\nThe impact of TSMC's price will be felt more obviously from next year, analysts say, as the company is still working through existing orders. Customers will also negotiate their own specific terms with TSMC before Oct. 1, when the price hikes officially take effect, they said.\nOverall chip prices, however, have already surged.\nAccording to Dale Gai, research director of Counterpoint Research, chip developers are paying 40% higher production fees for legacy chips that are in the shortest supply.\n\nElectronics makers, meanwhile, face even steeper increases as they try to source enough chips to complete their devices. The price of some microcontroller chips, for example, has jumped from $0.20 each to more than $1, supply chain executives and distributors told Nikkei -- a 400% increase in less than a year.\nThe reason is that these chips, while not necessarily the most important part of a smartphone or server, are still essential and not easily replaced. Such chips can also be stockpiled more easily than, say, CPUs, which quickly become obsolete, so anyone who has extra inventory can name their price if they find a buyer in need.\nPrices have risen in just about every step of the chip supply chain, from basic materials to chip packing and testing services -- the last step before chips are mounted on printed circuit boards.\nFor top chip developers that outsource production -- namely Qualcomm, Nvidia, MediaTek and Advanced Micro Devices -- this translated to an increase in \"cost of sales\" in 2020, according to a Nikkei analysis. Defined as the total cost of production, materials and delivery of goods, cost of sales continued to surge in the first half of 2021.\nMobile chip giant Qualcomm's accumulated cost of sales from last October until June this year jumped nearly 60% on the year, while that of MediaTek, its key Asia rival, increased more than 64% for the same period. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue surged even more during the period, however, indicating they have adjusted the selling prices of their chips, which are used by the world's major smartphone makers.\nIndustry players and analysts predict strong chip demand -- and thus higher prices -- to continue into next year.\nDoris Hsu, chair and CEO of Globalwafers, the world's third-largest wafer material maker, said the price of wafers -- the essential substrate that all chips are fabricated on -- is set to go up.\n\"Materials and chemicals used in production and transportation logistics costs are all on the rise,\" Hsu said. \"That means we have to adjust the selling price of our wafers, otherwise our profit margin could be affected.\"\nPeter Hanbury, a partner specializing in chip and tech supply chain at Bain & Co., told Nikkei chip prices will likely rise into next year due to the time it takes to expand production capacity.\nChip developers such as Qualcomm, NXP and Nvidia, he added, will likely negotiate to pass these price increases onto their own customers -- namely device makers and electronics builders such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, HP, Dell and Ford.\n\"[For] products like smartphones and PCs, the price increases will be more noticeable, while for other devices with limited semiconductor content you may not even notice,\" Hanbury said, referring to the retail prices.\nGai, of Counterpoint Research, said the rising cost of chips may even impact smartphone makers' business strategies.\n\"The net profit margin for smartphone makers excluding Apple is only about 5% to 10%. In that case, the rising chip costs will definitely push all the industry players to roll out higher-end handset models for next year to offset the cost impacts rather than focus on midrange or lower-end phones,\" he said.\nMeanwhile, the race to develop cutting-edge technologies is also expected to keep chip prices high for the long term, particularly the more advanced offerings.\n\"Advanced chip production, such as 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and future 3-nanometer, is extremely expensive,\" Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, told Nikkei. \"Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel could afford the investment. I am not going to say those advanced chip prices will never fall, but it's not easy for them to go down much given the scale of the investment,\" Li said.\nFor smaller players and for more mature production technology, Li said the market \"could be more volatile once there is an economic slowdown. The correction could be quite substantial and quick, too.\"\nLi said the most important factor in determining prices, however, is the same as always: demand.\n\"Chip plants operate like airlines. Airlines must shoulder fixed costs even if there are only one or two passengers on board. Chipmaking plants are the same. If the demand slows, they have to lower prices to lure more clients and maintain utilization rates.\"\nTSMC told Nikkei that it will not comment on pricing adjustment but referred to CEO C.C. Wei's statement during an earnings briefing in July, when he said, \"TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodities cost. Therefore, we are firming up our wafer pricing.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"UMC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815383811,"gmtCreate":1630644161633,"gmtModify":1631890506209,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815383811","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815383348,"gmtCreate":1630644153684,"gmtModify":1631890506219,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815383348","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812314003,"gmtCreate":1630552545402,"gmtModify":1631890506232,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812314003","repostId":"1105808841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105808841","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630547089,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105808841?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 09:44","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨幅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105808841","media":"AFP","summary":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their ","content":"<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周四早盘再次上涨，投资者在本周末美国关键就业数据公布前等待时机。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.67%或175.23点，至26,203.52点。</blockquote></p><p> The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.</p><p><blockquote>上证综指下跌 0.20% 或 7.20 点，至 3,559.90 点；中国第二大交易所深圳综合指数下跌 0.22% 或 5.32 点，至 2,412.57 点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1605843958005","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨幅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨幅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AFP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周四早盘再次上涨，投资者在本周末美国关键就业数据公布前等待时机。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.67%或175.23点，至26,203.52点。</blockquote></p><p> The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.</p><p><blockquote>上证综指下跌 0.20% 或 7.20 点，至 3,559.90 点；中国第二大交易所深圳综合指数下跌 0.22% 或 5.32 点，至 2,412.57 点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-extend-gains-at-open-3\">AFP</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-extend-gains-at-open-3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105808841","content_text":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.\nThe Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.\nThe Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816116452,"gmtCreate":1630477272376,"gmtModify":1631890506248,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816116452","repostId":"1136153067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818928681,"gmtCreate":1630371689943,"gmtModify":1704959234060,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818928681","repostId":"1181079166","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811380842,"gmtCreate":1630289382286,"gmtModify":1704957868923,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811380842","repostId":"1199324498","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819386514,"gmtCreate":1630034365038,"gmtModify":1704954948688,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819386514","repostId":"1190762172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819386838,"gmtCreate":1630034342124,"gmtModify":1704954948342,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819386838","repostId":"1177482103","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177482103","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630032656,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177482103?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snowflake: Why Jim Cramer Thinks Every Fortune 500 Company Will Be a Customer<blockquote>雪花：为什么吉姆·克莱默认为每家财富 500 强公司都会成为客户</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177482103","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Cloud software company Snowflake (SNOW) reported a second-quarter loss of 64 cents a share onrevenue","content":"<p>Cloud software company Snowflake&nbsp;(<b>SNOW</b>)&nbsp;reported a second-quarter loss of 64 cents a share onrevenue of $272.2 million, up 104% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>云软件公司雪花（<b>雪</b>）报告第二季度每股亏损 64 美分，营收为 2.722 亿美元，同比增长 104%。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake CEO Frank Slootman told Jim Cramer on \"Mad Money\" that Snowflake doesn't create demand for its products, it enables it. A lot more is possible with Snowflake when technology no longer holds companies back, Slootman said.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake 首席执行官 Frank Slootman 在《Mad Money》节目中告诉 Jim Cramer，Snowflake 不会为其产品创造需求，而是促成了需求。斯洛特曼说，当技术不再阻碍公司发展时，雪花还有更多可能。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer told Action Alerts PLUS senior analyst Jeff Marks that Snowflake's 'pay as you go' use model will make it so every customer in the Fortune 500 is a customer.</p><p><blockquote>Cramer 告诉 Action Alerts PLUS 高级分析师 Jeff Marks，Snowflake 的“现收现付”使用模式将使财富 500 强中的每个客户都成为客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"[Snowflake] is the way of the future, right now,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>“[雪花]现在是未来的道路，”克莱默说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake: Why Jim Cramer Thinks Every Fortune 500 Company Will Be a Customer<blockquote>雪花：为什么吉姆·克莱默认为每家财富 500 强公司都会成为客户</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake: Why Jim Cramer Thinks Every Fortune 500 Company Will Be a Customer<blockquote>雪花：为什么吉姆·克莱默认为每家财富 500 强公司都会成为客户</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cloud software company Snowflake&nbsp;(<b>SNOW</b>)&nbsp;reported a second-quarter loss of 64 cents a share onrevenue of $272.2 million, up 104% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>云软件公司雪花（<b>雪</b>）报告第二季度每股亏损 64 美分，营收为 2.722 亿美元，同比增长 104%。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake CEO Frank Slootman told Jim Cramer on \"Mad Money\" that Snowflake doesn't create demand for its products, it enables it. A lot more is possible with Snowflake when technology no longer holds companies back, Slootman said.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake 首席执行官 Frank Slootman 在《Mad Money》节目中告诉 Jim Cramer，Snowflake 不会为其产品创造需求，而是促成了需求。斯洛特曼说，当技术不再阻碍公司发展时，雪花还有更多可能。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer told Action Alerts PLUS senior analyst Jeff Marks that Snowflake's 'pay as you go' use model will make it so every customer in the Fortune 500 is a customer.</p><p><blockquote>Cramer 告诉 Action Alerts PLUS 高级分析师 Jeff Marks，Snowflake 的“现收现付”使用模式将使财富 500 强中的每个客户都成为客户。</blockquote></p><p> \"[Snowflake] is the way of the future, right now,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>“[雪花]现在是未来的道路，”克莱默说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-snowflake-customers-every-fortune-500-company\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-snowflake-customers-every-fortune-500-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177482103","content_text":"Cloud software company Snowflake (SNOW) reported a second-quarter loss of 64 cents a share onrevenue of $272.2 million, up 104% from a year earlier.\nSnowflake CEO Frank Slootman told Jim Cramer on \"Mad Money\" that Snowflake doesn't create demand for its products, it enables it. A lot more is possible with Snowflake when technology no longer holds companies back, Slootman said.\nCramer told Action Alerts PLUS senior analyst Jeff Marks that Snowflake's 'pay as you go' use model will make it so every customer in the Fortune 500 is a customer.\n\"[Snowflake] is the way of the future, right now,\" Cramer said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810991749,"gmtCreate":1629937904481,"gmtModify":1633681349064,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810991749","repostId":"2162063590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837831358,"gmtCreate":1629871749174,"gmtModify":1633681791073,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837831358","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834185865,"gmtCreate":1629780338357,"gmtModify":1633682475034,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","idStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834185865","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":873248493,"gmtCreate":1636952669999,"gmtModify":1636952670221,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873248493","repostId":"2183536049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":811380842,"gmtCreate":1630289382286,"gmtModify":1704957868923,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811380842","repostId":"1199324498","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149866912,"gmtCreate":1625715251236,"gmtModify":1633938056988,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149866912","repostId":"1176865752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817515415,"gmtCreate":1630974701137,"gmtModify":1631890506196,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"theme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08:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在 2022 年上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113754693","media":"Nikkei Asia","summary":"Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns\nTSMC's move to ","content":"<p><div> Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns TSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji TAIPEI...</p><p><blockquote><div>在没有重大经济放缓的情况下，半导体和电子产品价格将会上涨台积电提高芯片生产服务费的举措让许多业内人士感到意外。©法新社/时事台北...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在 2022 年上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip prices set to rise into 2022 as TSMC hikes rates<blockquote>随着台积电加息，芯片价格将在 2022 年上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nikkei Asia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 08:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns TSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji TAIPEI...</p><p><blockquote><div>在没有重大经济放缓的情况下，半导体和电子产品价格将会上涨台积电提高芯片生产服务费的举措让许多业内人士感到意外。©法新社/时事台北...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates\">Nikkei Asia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UMC":"联电","QCOM":"高通","AAPL":"苹果","TSM":"台积电","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-prices-set-to-rise-into-2022-as-TSMC-hikes-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113754693","content_text":"Semiconductor and electronics prices are set to rise absent major economic slowdowns\nTSMC's move to raise its fees for chip production services took many in the industry by surprise. © AFP/Jiji\nTAIPEI/HSINCHU, Taiwan -- The price of chips -- and the electronic devices they power -- are on track to rise into 2022 as the world's biggest contract chipmaker joins its rivals in ramping up production fees.\nPrices of semiconductors have been climbing since the last quarter of 2020 amid a global supply crunch. But news that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was preparing its biggest price hike in a decade still came as a shock to some, bringing home just how entrenched chip price inflation has become.\nTSMC controls over half the global foundry market, making chips for the likes of Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Known for its cutting-edge tech and high quality, the Taiwanese company normally commands production fees around 20% higher than its rivals, according to industry insiders.\nSince the end of last year, however, smaller foundries have repeatedly ramped up their own prices, so that United Microelectronics, the world's No. 3 player, now charges more than its bigger compatriot for some services, four industry executives told Nikkei Asia.\nThese higher prices stem from a range of factors, including higher material and logistics costs as well as the race by device makers to secure adequate chip supplies, that have emerged since the chip shortage first began to bite late last year.\nTSMC has been slower than most other chip companies in raising its prices, in part because it already enjoyed such a hefty premium. But with investment costs also rising -- the company has pledged $100 billion in spending over the next three years -- the chip giant felt compelled to pass on some of the burden, sources briefed on the matter said.\nMore urgently, industry sources say, the company is keen to weed out so-called double-booking, in which clients place orders for more chips than they actually need in hopes of securing production line space and support from contract chipmakers amid the global supply crunch. This, in turn, has made it difficult for TSMC to grasp the \"real demand\" picture, sources briefed on the matter told Nikkei.\nClient reactions to the planned price rise are mixed.\n\"We are glad that TSMC eventually adjusted prices so that it could fend off the practice of double-booking, when industry players race to secure enough chip production capacity during a shortage,\" K.S. Pua, chairman and CEO of Phison Electronics, told Nikkei. The leading NAND flash controller chip and solution provider is a client of both TSMC and UMC.\n\"We are still short of supplies and want more chip capacity to support our growth for the second half of 2021,\" Pua said.\nPhison raised its own chip prices around April this year to reflect the rising supply chain costs, and Pua said his company will have discussions with clients about further increases.\nOthers, however, have expressed concern over whether they will be able to pass on these higher costs to customers.\n\"We are all in a great shock and all of our account managers need to speak to our customers to see if we can renegotiate some of the contracts,\" a chip executive told Nikkei. \"We haven't seen TSMC introduce such a broad rate increase in over a decade.\"\nThe impact of TSMC's price will be felt more obviously from next year, analysts say, as the company is still working through existing orders. Customers will also negotiate their own specific terms with TSMC before Oct. 1, when the price hikes officially take effect, they said.\nOverall chip prices, however, have already surged.\nAccording to Dale Gai, research director of Counterpoint Research, chip developers are paying 40% higher production fees for legacy chips that are in the shortest supply.\n\nElectronics makers, meanwhile, face even steeper increases as they try to source enough chips to complete their devices. The price of some microcontroller chips, for example, has jumped from $0.20 each to more than $1, supply chain executives and distributors told Nikkei -- a 400% increase in less than a year.\nThe reason is that these chips, while not necessarily the most important part of a smartphone or server, are still essential and not easily replaced. Such chips can also be stockpiled more easily than, say, CPUs, which quickly become obsolete, so anyone who has extra inventory can name their price if they find a buyer in need.\nPrices have risen in just about every step of the chip supply chain, from basic materials to chip packing and testing services -- the last step before chips are mounted on printed circuit boards.\nFor top chip developers that outsource production -- namely Qualcomm, Nvidia, MediaTek and Advanced Micro Devices -- this translated to an increase in \"cost of sales\" in 2020, according to a Nikkei analysis. Defined as the total cost of production, materials and delivery of goods, cost of sales continued to surge in the first half of 2021.\nMobile chip giant Qualcomm's accumulated cost of sales from last October until June this year jumped nearly 60% on the year, while that of MediaTek, its key Asia rival, increased more than 64% for the same period. Both Qualcomm and MediaTek's revenue surged even more during the period, however, indicating they have adjusted the selling prices of their chips, which are used by the world's major smartphone makers.\nIndustry players and analysts predict strong chip demand -- and thus higher prices -- to continue into next year.\nDoris Hsu, chair and CEO of Globalwafers, the world's third-largest wafer material maker, said the price of wafers -- the essential substrate that all chips are fabricated on -- is set to go up.\n\"Materials and chemicals used in production and transportation logistics costs are all on the rise,\" Hsu said. \"That means we have to adjust the selling price of our wafers, otherwise our profit margin could be affected.\"\nPeter Hanbury, a partner specializing in chip and tech supply chain at Bain & Co., told Nikkei chip prices will likely rise into next year due to the time it takes to expand production capacity.\nChip developers such as Qualcomm, NXP and Nvidia, he added, will likely negotiate to pass these price increases onto their own customers -- namely device makers and electronics builders such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, HP, Dell and Ford.\n\"[For] products like smartphones and PCs, the price increases will be more noticeable, while for other devices with limited semiconductor content you may not even notice,\" Hanbury said, referring to the retail prices.\nGai, of Counterpoint Research, said the rising cost of chips may even impact smartphone makers' business strategies.\n\"The net profit margin for smartphone makers excluding Apple is only about 5% to 10%. In that case, the rising chip costs will definitely push all the industry players to roll out higher-end handset models for next year to offset the cost impacts rather than focus on midrange or lower-end phones,\" he said.\nMeanwhile, the race to develop cutting-edge technologies is also expected to keep chip prices high for the long term, particularly the more advanced offerings.\n\"Advanced chip production, such as 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer and future 3-nanometer, is extremely expensive,\" Mark Li, a veteran semiconductor analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, told Nikkei. \"Only TSMC, Samsung and Intel could afford the investment. I am not going to say those advanced chip prices will never fall, but it's not easy for them to go down much given the scale of the investment,\" Li said.\nFor smaller players and for more mature production technology, Li said the market \"could be more volatile once there is an economic slowdown. The correction could be quite substantial and quick, too.\"\nLi said the most important factor in determining prices, however, is the same as always: demand.\n\"Chip plants operate like airlines. Airlines must shoulder fixed costs even if there are only one or two passengers on board. Chipmaking plants are the same. If the demand slows, they have to lower prices to lure more clients and maintain utilization rates.\"\nTSMC told Nikkei that it will not comment on pricing adjustment but referred to CEO C.C. Wei's statement during an earnings briefing in July, when he said, \"TSMC's pricing strategy is strategic, not opportunistic. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading node, new investment in mature nodes, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodities cost. Therefore, we are firming up our wafer pricing.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"UMC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816116452,"gmtCreate":1630477272376,"gmtModify":1631890506248,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816116452","repostId":"1136153067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893993996,"gmtCreate":1628226509515,"gmtModify":1633752410955,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893993996","repostId":"1199377263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199377263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628222564,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199377263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强大--但这些 “内部因素 ”远没有那么积极</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199377263","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered ","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数继续加速上行。周二创下历史收盘新高。然而，市场的 “内部因素 ”仍然处于糟糕得多的状态。这种情况已经持续了一段时间（至少从6月11日开始），而且这种情况可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> But as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.</p><p><blockquote>但只要标准普尔图表为正值且高于支撑位，就建议持有 “核心 ”多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> The first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.</p><p><blockquote>第一个支撑位现在大约是4370。这是 SPX 最近两天抛售然后反弹的低点——7 月 27 日和周二（是的，就是 SPX 从该水平反弹然后收于历史新高的同一天）。由于它已经过双重测试，这使得它成为一个可行的支持级别。盘中历史高点4430点存在阻力。</blockquote></p><p> You can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.</p><p><blockquote>你可以从随附的图表中看到，自7月23日以来，SPX一直处于相当正确的交易状态——在4370到4430之间。</blockquote></p><p> A breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.</p><p><blockquote>突破该范围将意义重大。如果它向下突破，这将对 SPX 图表产生负面影响。在该处下方，4233 处存在一个主要支撑区域，在跌破 4370 后可能会很快受到测试。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).</p><p><blockquote>因此，SPX 图表仍然为正值，但有一个麦克米伦波动率波段 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表上的绿色 “S”）。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看包含大量股票的一些指标。你会发现他们远没有那么积极。首先是纯股票看跌看涨期权比率。这些价格已经上涨了一个月，这意味着它们在此期间一直处于卖出信号。相对于看涨期权成交量，看跌期权成交量一直很大，这就是导致这些比率上升的原因。标准比率的图表似乎有轻微的 “波动”，但计算机分析程序说这并不明显。</blockquote></p><p> The larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.</p><p><blockquote>更大的情况是，随着许多股票的下跌，期权交易者一直在购买这些股票的看跌期权，迫使这些纯股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率走高。只要比率上升，他们就会保持卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).</p><p><blockquote>自 6 月中旬以来，市场广度（涨幅减去跌幅）一直很糟糕。也就是说，大多数股票都在下跌，尽管 SPX 正在上涨。事实上，推动这个市场的是少数纳斯达克大盘股（FAANG股票加微软是最强的股票）。</blockquote></p><p> Things have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周情况有所改善，因此我们的宽度振荡器处于买入信号，但仍处于负值区域。通常情况下，当SPX创下历史新高时，宽度振荡指标将进入正值区域，反映出整体市场强劲。但现在情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.</p><p><blockquote>此外，累计宽度（每日涨幅减去跌幅的运行总和）自6月11日以来没有创下历史新高。此后，SPX 已连续 19 个交易日创下收盘或盘中新高。这是一个巨大的负面市场背离，但这本身并不是卖出信号。相反，这是一个强烈的警告，要保持警惕——避免自满。</blockquote></p><p> New 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所52周新高继续创下52周新低。最近，使用纳斯达克或 “仅股票 ”数据时，有一些孤立的日子出现了新低超过新高的情况，但使用纽约证券交易所数据时不会出现这种情况。这意味着该指标仍然看好股票。如果纽约证券交易所新低超过新高并且足够大，它就会变成负值，但这种情况还没有发生。</blockquote></p><p> There is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).</p><p><blockquote>还有一个已实现的波动率卖出信号。当标准普尔的 20 天历史波动率先跌破 8%（6 月中旬），随后又升至 11%（7 月下旬）以上时，就发生了这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> Implied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，就股市而言，隐含波动率仍处于看涨状态。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。此外，VIX 200日移动平均线仍在下降，并且远高于VIX的价格。VIX 指数在过去一个月里从 15 点缓慢 “爬升 ”至 19 点，但这似乎并不是一个明显的趋势变化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.</p><p><blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构对股市仍然有利。VIX 期货的交易价格高于 VIX，并且这些 VIX 期货和芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构呈上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍然是积极的。这是最重要的事实。在这种情况改变之前，建议做多“核心”头寸。围绕这一点，人们可以交易确认的信号——买入和卖出。SPX 突破 4370 区域将使情况发生负面变化，但突破 4430 上方的历史新高将加强看涨理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：有条件 SPX 卖出信号</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:</p><p><blockquote>根据上述文章，我们将列出一些关于在 SPX 支撑位被突破时采取看跌头寸的参数：</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX交易价格低于4370并在那里停留一个小时，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）实值看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并以惊人的低25点的价格卖出1个SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition,</p><p><blockquote>此外，</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX closes below 4370,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果 SPX 收盘低于 4370，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy another bear spread:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后再买一个熊市价差：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买 1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）实值看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并卖出 1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）看跌期权，价格低 25 点。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，在不满足第一个条件的情况下，第二个条件（收盘价低于 4370）可能会出现（如果 SPX 在交易日晚些时候跌破 4370）。如果是这样的话，那么在收盘时买入其中的两个价差。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果这些价差成立，当SPX收盘价高于4430时，停止所有这些熊市价差。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强大--但这些 “内部因素 ”远没有那么积极</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强大--但这些 “内部因素 ”远没有那么积极</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数继续加速上行。周二创下历史收盘新高。然而，市场的 “内部因素 ”仍然处于糟糕得多的状态。这种情况已经持续了一段时间（至少从6月11日开始），而且这种情况可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> But as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.</p><p><blockquote>但只要标准普尔图表为正值且高于支撑位，就建议持有 “核心 ”多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> The first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.</p><p><blockquote>第一个支撑位现在大约是4370。这是 SPX 最近两天抛售然后反弹的低点——7 月 27 日和周二（是的，就是 SPX 从该水平反弹然后收于历史新高的同一天）。由于它已经过双重测试，这使得它成为一个可行的支持级别。盘中历史高点4430点存在阻力。</blockquote></p><p> You can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.</p><p><blockquote>你可以从随附的图表中看到，自7月23日以来，SPX一直处于相当正确的交易状态——在4370到4430之间。</blockquote></p><p> A breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.</p><p><blockquote>突破该范围将意义重大。如果它向下突破，这将对 SPX 图表产生负面影响。在该处下方，4233 处存在一个主要支撑区域，在跌破 4370 后可能会很快受到测试。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).</p><p><blockquote>因此，SPX 图表仍然为正值，但有一个麦克米伦波动率波段 (MVB) 卖出信号（图表上的绿色 “S”）。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看包含大量股票的一些指标。你会发现他们远没有那么积极。首先是纯股票看跌看涨期权比率。这些价格已经上涨了一个月，这意味着它们在此期间一直处于卖出信号。相对于看涨期权成交量，看跌期权成交量一直很大，这就是导致这些比率上升的原因。标准比率的图表似乎有轻微的 “波动”，但计算机分析程序说这并不明显。</blockquote></p><p> The larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.</p><p><blockquote>更大的情况是，随着许多股票的下跌，期权交易者一直在购买这些股票的看跌期权，迫使这些纯股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率走高。只要比率上升，他们就会保持卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).</p><p><blockquote>自 6 月中旬以来，市场广度（涨幅减去跌幅）一直很糟糕。也就是说，大多数股票都在下跌，尽管 SPX 正在上涨。事实上，推动这个市场的是少数纳斯达克大盘股（FAANG股票加微软是最强的股票）。</blockquote></p><p> Things have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周情况有所改善，因此我们的宽度振荡器处于买入信号，但仍处于负值区域。通常情况下，当SPX创下历史新高时，宽度振荡指标将进入正值区域，反映出整体市场强劲。但现在情况并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.</p><p><blockquote>此外，累计宽度（每日涨幅减去跌幅的运行总和）自6月11日以来没有创下历史新高。此后，SPX 已连续 19 个交易日创下收盘或盘中新高。这是一个巨大的负面市场背离，但这本身并不是卖出信号。相反，这是一个强烈的警告，要保持警惕——避免自满。</blockquote></p><p> New 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所52周新高继续创下52周新低。最近，使用纳斯达克或 “仅股票 ”数据时，有一些孤立的日子出现了新低超过新高的情况，但使用纽约证券交易所数据时不会出现这种情况。这意味着该指标仍然看好股票。如果纽约证券交易所新低超过新高并且足够大，它就会变成负值，但这种情况还没有发生。</blockquote></p><p> There is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).</p><p><blockquote>还有一个已实现的波动率卖出信号。当标准普尔的 20 天历史波动率先跌破 8%（6 月中旬），随后又升至 11%（7 月下旬）以上时，就发生了这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> Implied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，就股市而言，隐含波动率仍处于看涨状态。7 月 20 日的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。此外，VIX 200日移动平均线仍在下降，并且远高于VIX的价格。VIX 指数在过去一个月里从 15 点缓慢 “爬升 ”至 19 点，但这似乎并不是一个明显的趋势变化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.</p><p><blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构对股市仍然有利。VIX 期货的交易价格高于 VIX，并且这些 VIX 期货和芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构呈上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍然是积极的。这是最重要的事实。在这种情况改变之前，建议做多“核心”头寸。围绕这一点，人们可以交易确认的信号——买入和卖出。SPX 突破 4370 区域将使情况发生负面变化，但突破 4430 上方的历史新高将加强看涨理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：有条件 SPX 卖出信号</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:</p><p><blockquote>根据上述文章，我们将列出一些关于在 SPX 支撑位被突破时采取看跌头寸的参数：</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果SPX交易价格低于4370并在那里停留一个小时，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）实值看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并以惊人的低25点的价格卖出1个SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition,</p><p><blockquote>此外，</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF SPX closes below 4370,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果 SPX 收盘低于 4370，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy another bear spread:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后再买一个熊市价差：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买 1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）实值看跌期权</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并卖出 1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8 月（27 日）看跌期权，价格低 25 点。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，在不满足第一个条件的情况下，第二个条件（收盘价低于 4370）可能会出现（如果 SPX 在交易日晚些时候跌破 4370）。如果是这样的话，那么在收盘时买入其中的两个价差。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果这些价差成立，当SPX收盘价高于4430时，停止所有这些熊市价差。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199377263","content_text":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.\nBut as long as the S&P chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.\nThe first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.\nYou can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.\nA breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nSo the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).\nNow let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.\nThe larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nMarket breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).\nThings have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.\nMoreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.\nNew 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.\nThere is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).\nImplied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.\nThe SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.\nNew recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal\nBased on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:\nIF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,\nTHEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nIn addition,\nIF SPX closes below 4370,\nTHEN buy another bear spread:\n            Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nNote that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.\nFinally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802284379,"gmtCreate":1627783077091,"gmtModify":1633756464352,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802284379","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803686122,"gmtCreate":1627436218966,"gmtModify":1633765012183,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803686122","repostId":"2154991792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809319595,"gmtCreate":1627347709817,"gmtModify":1633765898640,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809319595","repostId":"1153028059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153028059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627340900,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153028059?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量激增98%；公司提高低成本电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153028059","media":"Reuters","summary":" -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operati","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，得益于其价格较低的电动汽车销量大幅增加，同时提高了价格以提高利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这是制造业务财务状况不断改善的迹象。特斯拉通过削减其认为未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值的汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨了 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权上，特斯拉高管表示，批量生产增长将取决于零部件的可用性，马斯克警告说，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“马斯克说：”全球芯片短缺形势仍然相当严重。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，马斯克表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯州和德国在建工厂开始生产 Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年将产量增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，特斯拉本季度的交付量仍创下历史新高，这要归功于包括 Model 3 轿车和 Model Ys 在内的廉价车型的销售。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从去年同期的 60.4 亿美元跃升至 119.6 亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Refinitiv 的 IBES 数据，分析师此前预计收入约为 113 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>不包括项目，特斯拉公布的每股利润为 1.45 美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股利润 98 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，经营利润随着销量增长和成本降低而上涨，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失 2300 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力往往依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管积分，但在第二季度，特斯拉自 2019 年底以来首次在没有这些积分的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度 GAAP 净利润为 11.4 亿美元。信贷收入总计仅3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>“Investing.com 高级分析师杰西-科恩（Jesse Cohen）说：”特斯拉的数据给人留下了深刻的印象，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商 Stellantis 预计今年将在不从特斯拉购买环境信用额度的情况下实现欧洲二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将半挂卡车计划的启动时间推迟到 2022 年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型 4680 电池尚未准备好批量生产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时会得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在一旁表示，他 “很可能不会在财报评级上 ”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级一直是马斯克用来谈论特斯拉技术或回击竞争对手或批评者的丰富多彩的季度仪式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量激增98%；公司提高低成本电动汽车的利润率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量激增98%；公司提高低成本电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社） - 特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，得益于其价格较低的电动汽车销量大幅增加，同时提高了价格以提高利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这是制造业务财务状况不断改善的迹象。特斯拉通过削减其认为未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值的汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨了 1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权上，特斯拉高管表示，批量生产增长将取决于零部件的可用性，马斯克警告说，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“马斯克说：”全球芯片短缺形势仍然相当严重。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，马斯克表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯州和德国在建工厂开始生产 Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年将产量增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，特斯拉本季度的交付量仍创下历史新高，这要归功于包括 Model 3 轿车和 Model Ys 在内的廉价车型的销售。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从去年同期的 60.4 亿美元跃升至 119.6 亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Refinitiv 的 IBES 数据，分析师此前预计收入约为 113 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>不包括项目，特斯拉公布的每股利润为 1.45 美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股利润 98 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，经营利润随着销量增长和成本降低而上涨，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失 2300 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力往往依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管积分，但在第二季度，特斯拉自 2019 年底以来首次在没有这些积分的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度 GAAP 净利润为 11.4 亿美元。信贷收入总计仅3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>“Investing.com 高级分析师杰西-科恩（Jesse Cohen）说：”特斯拉的数据给人留下了深刻的印象，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商 Stellantis 预计今年将在不从特斯拉购买环境信用额度的情况下实现欧洲二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将半挂卡车计划的启动时间推迟到 2022 年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型 4680 电池尚未准备好批量生产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时会得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在一旁表示，他 “很可能不会在财报评级上 ”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级一直是马斯克用来谈论特斯拉技术或回击竞争对手或批评者的丰富多彩的季度仪式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153028059","content_text":"(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.\nTesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.\nFor the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.\nShares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.\nIn a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.\n“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.\nStill, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.\nDespite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.\nThe carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.\nAnalysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.\nTesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.\nTesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.\n“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.\nCarmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.\nTesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.\nBut the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.\nIn an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177603930,"gmtCreate":1627203313520,"gmtModify":1633767182416,"author":{"id":"3570852047190387","authorId":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorIdStr":"3570852047190387"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177603930","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}