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2021-10-21

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PayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，尾巴我赢</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":853845750,"tweetId":"853845750","gmtCreate":1634792641753,"gmtModify":1634792642448,"author":{"id":3570852047190387,"idStr":"3570852047190387","authorId":3570852047190387,"authorIdStr":"3570852047190387","name":"tyng8825","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96881c116505f25bd9b7404b76c5e06d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":38,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853845750","repostId":1118528593,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118528593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634788571,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118528593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，尾巴我赢</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118528593","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFirst, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.\nSecond, I explain how this improv","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.</li> <li>Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.</li> <li>Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.</li> <li>Fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44adcd1b54b3a4b65c37aded8b348f75\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1009\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sean Gallup/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>首先，我简单讨论一下关于PYPL购买PIN的新闻。</li><li>其次，我解释了这如何为投资者提高了 PYPL 的价格。</li><li>第三，我描述了PINS如何适应PYPL，以及它是如何增值的。</li><li>第四，我还概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</li></ul>肖恩·盖洛普/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> The purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.<blockquote>本文的目的是根据最近关于PYPL收购Pinterest（PINS）的新闻，对PayPal（PYPL）有一个全局。坦率地说，我不在乎他们是否购买别针或交易失败。这就是我要报道的。</blockquote> Here's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.<blockquote>文章是这样展开的。首先，我简单讨论一下关于PYPL购买PIN的新闻。其次，我解释了这如何为投资者提高了 PYPL 的价格。第三，我描述了引脚如何适应PYPL，它可能是好的。然而，第四，我也概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</blockquote> The \"Shocking\" News<blockquote>令人震惊的消息</blockquote> If you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.<blockquote>如果你正在读这篇文章，那么你可能已经熟悉这个消息了。据彭博社报道， PayPal 正在探索收购Pinterest。</blockquote> San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said. That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58. And, as a result, here's what happened:<blockquote>知情人士称，总部位于加州圣何塞的PayPal最近就潜在交易与Pinterest接洽，要求匿名，因为谈判是私下进行的。知情人士称，两家公司已经讨论了每股 70 美元左右的潜在价格。这将使Pinterest整个公司（包括其 B 类股票）的估值约为 450 亿美元。在这个水平上的交易将比Pinterest周二 55.58 美元的收盘价溢价约 26%。结果，事情是这样的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cbd27e17802078aeed4126cdf0e93d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> You might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.<blockquote>你可能会笑我展示的是六个月的图表，这才是重点。六个月内，PYPL 从 264 美元跌至 258 美元，略有下降。PINS 实际上在六个月内下跌了约 25%，从 71 美元降至 63 美元，跌幅相当大。对于 PINS 来说，今天 13% 的涨幅是一份真正的礼物，至少就价格走势而言是如此。</blockquote> Let's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,in just one day, it's easy to see huge changes:<blockquote>让我们在更短的时间内再来看看这个。仅从价格角度来看，仅仅一天，很容易看到巨大的变化：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a27f8e192506cc9637083edd81c405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa06cd8a6b48ca229a014e6c5440d294\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> On the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.<blockquote>从表面上看，看起来确实像是PINS着火了，PYPL受到了打击。但是，根据我上面的第一张图表，即使在今天的走势之后，PINS 的价格仍然疲软。而且，PYPL 已接近六个月前的盈亏平衡。</blockquote> In an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.<blockquote>从绝对意义上来说，我对PINS的关心远不如PYPL，因为我拥有PYPL，我喜欢这家公司。所以，有偏见，只是100%清楚。</blockquote> With that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -especially PYPL investors.<blockquote>抛开这种观点，我的偏见也充分显现出来，让我们看看这一切对投资者意味着什么 -尤其是PYPL投资者.</blockquote> Heads I Win, Part 1<blockquote>我赢的头，第 1 部分</blockquote> So, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.<blockquote>所以，当消息传出时，我预计PYPL会小幅下跌。当我看到跌破260美元时，我变得贪婪。郑重声明，我花255.62美元买了更多的PYPL，脸上带着微笑。</blockquote> PYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)<blockquote>PYPL变得更便宜，但价值与1-2天前相同，甚至更好。我稍后会解释更多。现在，只考虑我的观点，即PYPL的价格走低了，所以我的钱得到了更多。因为一些适度的好消息，我最终得到了5%的折扣。（稍后会有更多内容。）</blockquote> So, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.<blockquote>因此，在继续之前，我强烈建议你回顾一下我在2021年8月初写的一篇文章：PayPal：明星业务。</blockquote> <ul> <li>PYPL is in a high growth industry.</li> <li>PYPL commands significant market share.</li> <li>PYPL is growing very fast.</li> <li>PYPL is innovating like crazy.</li> </ul> Furthermore, I was very clear:<blockquote><ul><li>PYPL 处于高增长行业。</li><li>PYPL拥有巨大的市场份额。</li><li>PYPL发展非常快。</li><li>PYPL正在疯狂创新。</li></ul>此外，我非常清楚：</blockquote> I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens. Therefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount.<blockquote>我非常看好PYPL低于250美元，看好275美元。事实上，我最近以275美元的价格建立了一个首发位置。如果发生这种情况，我会继续在下降过程中添加少量。因此，在255美元的价格下，我对购买更多PYPL感到非常满意。在快速增长的市场中，这是高质量、管理良好的业务。简而言之，当价格下跌5%左右时，这仅仅意味着以折扣价获得更多 PYPL.</blockquote> Tails I Win<blockquote>尾巴我赢了</blockquote> Now, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.<blockquote>现在，让我们假设PINS交易失败了。在这种情况下，我很高兴，因为我能够以更低的价格购买更多的PYPL。还是同一家公司，但更划算。</blockquote> Furthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.<blockquote>此外，让我们假设交易失败，市场对此进行了反思。我的感觉是，投资者会简单地将 PYPL 重新定价，接近 270 美元至 275 美元或更高。</blockquote> I have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.<blockquote>我不知道这种“重新评级”需要多长时间，但没有理由认为购买别针的提议会永久损害PYPL。我就是看不出来。提出报价通常不会造成任何真正的损害。如果你有其他数据，请提供。</blockquote> Heads I Win, Part 2<blockquote>我赢的头，第 2 部分</blockquote> With all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:<blockquote>排除了所有这些，也许 PINS 是一家好公司，这对 PYPL 也有好处。嗯，从表面上看，我喜欢我在这里看到的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4128074a4ab4bea3095477286834fe0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Business of Apps<blockquote>来源：应用业务</blockquote> And, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:<blockquote>而且，尽管 2021 年第二季度有所下降，但用户群正在强劲增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2dc758204cd1b7173cfdc68b4af6f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Business of Apps<blockquote>来源：应用业务</blockquote> Here's more color on that drop:<blockquote>以下是该滴的更多颜色：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3819d2ba7bf53060011a2edb152ce91f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report<blockquote>资料来源：Pinterest 2021 年第二季度收益报告</blockquote> The drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.<blockquote>下降并没有让我太担心。毕竟，由于疫情在家工作的影响，Pinterest享受到了提振。此外，你可以看到实际的同比数字，一个季度到一个季度，它们至少令人满意。</blockquote> For what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann&nbsp;explains the drop off&nbsp;it quite well:<blockquote>PINS 首席执行官本杰明·西尔伯曼 (Benjamin Silbermann) 很好地解释了放弃它的原因：</blockquote> One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs. That perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.Moving on.<blockquote>第一，在家的总体时间发生了变化。第二，去年特别相关的许多用例，比如重新装修你的家，在家教育你的孩子，在家做饭，这些都减少了。现在说随着时间的推移，这些将如何正常化还为时过早。我不会完全相同地描述当前的用户行为或当前的社会环境，但我们看到了一些有希望的早期迹象。这也完全符合我的直觉。继续前进。</blockquote> I'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:<blockquote>我也很喜欢这些数据，正确地分解以供检查：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c5df28f93bef395b5a99aa6914b196\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report<blockquote>资料来源：Pinterest 2021 年第二季度收益报告</blockquote> While I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.<blockquote>虽然我确实关心这些数字，以及随着时间的推移的改进，但我更感兴趣的是PYPL在这里可能会看到什么。也就是说，用户有价值，因为用户在购物，在购买。想象一下，如果PYPL能够通过这些用户推动更多的电子商务，或者任何类型的交易。显然，他们花钱。</blockquote> Consider the&nbsp;usage, adoption and general activity flow:<blockquote>考虑使用、采用和一般活动流程：</blockquote> “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has&nbsp; 380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month.” [Emphasis: Author's] User activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, andliterally shopping. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:<blockquote>“彭博情报高级金融科技行业分析师 Julie Chariell 说：”如果PayPal真的收购Pinterest，这家金融科技公司将在社交媒体上获得与 Instagram 相媲美的影响力，吸引高度参与度的消费者，并帮助商家销售产品。“PayPal获益匪浅： Pinterest获益匪浅3.8亿月活跃用户每月使用该应用程序37次，而PayPal用户每月活跃8到9次[强调：作者的]用户活动非常棒。现在，想象一下用户活动不仅仅是看有趣的猫视频或大峡谷的图片。相反，Pinterest上的活动非常注重浏览购买，并且字面上的购物我的意思是，这几乎就是我收集到的全部重点。数据说明了一切：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Nearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.</li> <li>4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.</li> <li>Half of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.</li> <li>Nearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.</li> <li>85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.</li> </ul> And, PINS is looking to continue down the&nbsp;user monetization path.<blockquote><ul><li>近80%的美国千禧一代女性使用Pinterest。</li><li>五分之四的美国妈妈活跃在Pinterest上。</li><li>一半的美国用户也在使用Pinterest购物。</li><li>近十分之九的用户在Pinterest上计划购买和寻找灵感。</li><li>85%的用户是根据看到品牌别针进行购买的。</li></ul>此外，PINS希望继续走用户货币化的道路。</blockquote> “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.” And, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:<blockquote>“Pinterest一直致力于提高其平台的购物能力，”他指出，“在Pinterest扩大 Shopify 合作伙伴关系的推动下”，第二季度产品库存增长了近 50%。而且，我听到很多人谈论PYPL扩大用户群的计划，因为如果他们拥有用户，他们就有一条相对容易的货币化路径。例如：</blockquote> PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now, it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's] I definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -I don't hate this deal, and that's usually a good sign.<blockquote>PayPal拥有超过 4 亿注册用户，他们是客户，但他们也是未来的产品，因为PayPal在其平台上也拥有超过 3000 万商家，这是其目前的主要目标之一，它正在努力扩大用户群，力争到 2025 年拥有 7.5 亿用户但它正试图让他们在平台上进行越来越多的交易，这就是为什么它推出了这些新产品和服务，例如先买后付；加密货币；像这样的事情。它希望基本上了解消费者的所有交易、所有金融交易，因为这样它就可以获取这些数据并将其提供给商家。【强调：作者的】我绝对看到PYPL如何帮助PINS社交电子商务更上一层楼，甚至更有效地与Shopify（商店）合作。正如我刚才对几个人说的-我不讨厌这笔交易这通常是个好兆头。</blockquote> Tails I Win, Part 2<blockquote>我赢的尾巴，第 2 部分</blockquote> At this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.<blockquote>在这一点上，根据上面的数据，你可能非常渴望看到PYPL购买PIN。我当然不反对，知道我所知道的。PINS用户相当狂热，我可以看到巨大的协同作用。这几乎让我想起了PYPL和eBay（易贝）曾经是如何在一个屋檐下的。但是，我认为在这个时代，PINS要优越得多。也就是说，在这一点上，PYPL比易贝做得更好——我对此毫不怀疑。</blockquote> I should also mention that&nbsp;the price is better now&nbsp;than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:<blockquote>我还应该提到，现在的价格比微软 (MSFT) 考虑交易时要好：</blockquote> Price tag–wise, Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high&nbsp;in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's] Even if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.<blockquote>就价格标签而言，Pinterest股价较历史高点下跌约 30%2 月份，由于该平台一直在流失用户，这一数字比今年早些时候有报道称微软正在考虑以约 510 亿美元收购该公司时有所折扣。【强调：作者】即使交易失败，我仍然认为对话是富有成效的，我仍然认为未来一些合作活动会增加。你不需要结婚才能在派对上跳舞。</blockquote> Furthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's&nbsp;messy:<blockquote>此外，我不喜欢大交易，但我确实喜欢聪明的对话。换句话说，PYPL 计划斥资 450 亿美元购买 PINS。太大了。而且很乱：</blockquote> Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “ would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's] And...<blockquote>巴克莱银行的 El-Assal 评论说，收购Pinterest将是PayPal历史上最大的一笔交易，而且 “需要不同的资金组合，而不仅仅是手头的现金就像以前的收购一样。”【强调：作者的】和……</blockquote> It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016. They can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&amp;A. According to theHarvard Business Review:<blockquote>这将是社交媒体公司最大的收购，超过了微软公司在2016年以262亿美元收购LinkedIn。他们不能只用现金买。对于 PYPL 来说，这不是一个简单的“附加”。而且，老实说，如果失败了，我会稍微欢呼一下，因为这项研究反对大型并购。根据哈佛商业评论:</blockquote> ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%. Wrap-Up<blockquote>一项又一项研究表明，并购的失败率在70%到90%之间。总结</blockquote> I hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)<blockquote>我希望有几件事是清楚的。首先，我看好 PYPL，我很高兴以 250 美元左右的价格购买。我甚至愿意买275美元，但当然，我会接受更低的价格。（感谢您的任何折扣。）</blockquote> Second,I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.<blockquote>第二，我确实明白 PINS 对 PYPL 来说是一笔不错的购买.这符合他们的用户增长和一般业务增长的使命。收入和用户货币化机会即使不是很好，也很有趣。此外，用户群本身喜欢购物和购买，这对PYPL来说是完美的。</blockquote> Third, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,Godzilla-size M&amp;A doesn't have a great record.<blockquote>第三，如果交易没有通过，那么我不会震惊，也不会难过。PIN 的价格似乎大致合适，甚至可能略有折扣 - 特别是考虑到其对 PYPL 的潜在长期价值。但是，如果谈判失败，也不会让我跳过一个节拍，或者对PYPL失去信心。事实上，我甚至会感到如释重负。再一次，哥斯拉规模的并购并没有很好的记录.</blockquote> And, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.<blockquote>最后，我看到的最大风险很简单。也就是说，PYPL决定把报价越来越高。目前，作为 PYPL 股东，这个价格是可以接受的。但是，如果价格标签继续上涨，不管出于什么原因，那么我会不那么热情。事实上，如果要约价格上涨太多，我可能不得不修改我的整个PYPL论文。资本配置不良是致命的。我想要一笔大交易，或者没有交易。我们拭目以待。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，尾巴我赢</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Heads I Win, Tails I Win<blockquote>PayPal：正面我赢，尾巴我赢</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-21 11:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.</li> <li>Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.</li> <li>Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.</li> <li>Fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44adcd1b54b3a4b65c37aded8b348f75\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1009\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sean Gallup/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>首先，我简单讨论一下关于PYPL购买PIN的新闻。</li><li>其次，我解释了这如何为投资者提高了 PYPL 的价格。</li><li>第三，我描述了PINS如何适应PYPL，以及它是如何增值的。</li><li>第四，我还概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</li></ul>肖恩·盖洛普/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> The purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.<blockquote>本文的目的是根据最近关于PYPL收购Pinterest（PINS）的新闻，对PayPal（PYPL）有一个全局。坦率地说，我不在乎他们是否购买别针或交易失败。这就是我要报道的。</blockquote> Here's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.<blockquote>文章是这样展开的。首先，我简单讨论一下关于PYPL购买PIN的新闻。其次，我解释了这如何为投资者提高了 PYPL 的价格。第三，我描述了引脚如何适应PYPL，它可能是好的。然而，第四，我也概述了为什么“死交易”也是可以接受的。</blockquote> The \"Shocking\" News<blockquote>令人震惊的消息</blockquote> If you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.<blockquote>如果你正在读这篇文章，那么你可能已经熟悉这个消息了。据彭博社报道， PayPal 正在探索收购Pinterest。</blockquote> San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said. That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58. And, as a result, here's what happened:<blockquote>知情人士称，总部位于加州圣何塞的PayPal最近就潜在交易与Pinterest接洽，要求匿名，因为谈判是私下进行的。知情人士称，两家公司已经讨论了每股 70 美元左右的潜在价格。这将使Pinterest整个公司（包括其 B 类股票）的估值约为 450 亿美元。在这个水平上的交易将比Pinterest周二 55.58 美元的收盘价溢价约 26%。结果，事情是这样的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cbd27e17802078aeed4126cdf0e93d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> You might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.<blockquote>你可能会笑我展示的是六个月的图表，这才是重点。六个月内，PYPL 从 264 美元跌至 258 美元，略有下降。PINS 实际上在六个月内下跌了约 25%，从 71 美元降至 63 美元，跌幅相当大。对于 PINS 来说，今天 13% 的涨幅是一份真正的礼物，至少就价格走势而言是如此。</blockquote> Let's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,in just one day, it's easy to see huge changes:<blockquote>让我们在更短的时间内再来看看这个。仅从价格角度来看，仅仅一天，很容易看到巨大的变化：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a27f8e192506cc9637083edd81c405\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa06cd8a6b48ca229a014e6c5440d294\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> On the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.<blockquote>从表面上看，看起来确实像是PINS着火了，PYPL受到了打击。但是，根据我上面的第一张图表，即使在今天的走势之后，PINS 的价格仍然疲软。而且，PYPL 已接近六个月前的盈亏平衡。</blockquote> In an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.<blockquote>从绝对意义上来说，我对PINS的关心远不如PYPL，因为我拥有PYPL，我喜欢这家公司。所以，有偏见，只是100%清楚。</blockquote> With that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -especially PYPL investors.<blockquote>抛开这种观点，我的偏见也充分显现出来，让我们看看这一切对投资者意味着什么 -尤其是PYPL投资者.</blockquote> Heads I Win, Part 1<blockquote>我赢的头，第 1 部分</blockquote> So, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.<blockquote>所以，当消息传出时，我预计PYPL会小幅下跌。当我看到跌破260美元时，我变得贪婪。郑重声明，我花255.62美元买了更多的PYPL，脸上带着微笑。</blockquote> PYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)<blockquote>PYPL变得更便宜，但价值与1-2天前相同，甚至更好。我稍后会解释更多。现在，只考虑我的观点，即PYPL的价格走低了，所以我的钱得到了更多。因为一些适度的好消息，我最终得到了5%的折扣。（稍后会有更多内容。）</blockquote> So, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.<blockquote>因此，在继续之前，我强烈建议你回顾一下我在2021年8月初写的一篇文章：PayPal：明星业务。</blockquote> <ul> <li>PYPL is in a high growth industry.</li> <li>PYPL commands significant market share.</li> <li>PYPL is growing very fast.</li> <li>PYPL is innovating like crazy.</li> </ul> Furthermore, I was very clear:<blockquote><ul><li>PYPL 处于高增长行业。</li><li>PYPL拥有巨大的市场份额。</li><li>PYPL发展非常快。</li><li>PYPL正在疯狂创新。</li></ul>此外，我非常清楚：</blockquote> I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens. Therefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount.<blockquote>我非常看好PYPL低于250美元，看好275美元。事实上，我最近以275美元的价格建立了一个首发位置。如果发生这种情况，我会继续在下降过程中添加少量。因此，在255美元的价格下，我对购买更多PYPL感到非常满意。在快速增长的市场中，这是高质量、管理良好的业务。简而言之，当价格下跌5%左右时，这仅仅意味着以折扣价获得更多 PYPL.</blockquote> Tails I Win<blockquote>尾巴我赢了</blockquote> Now, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.<blockquote>现在，让我们假设PINS交易失败了。在这种情况下，我很高兴，因为我能够以更低的价格购买更多的PYPL。还是同一家公司，但更划算。</blockquote> Furthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.<blockquote>此外，让我们假设交易失败，市场对此进行了反思。我的感觉是，投资者会简单地将 PYPL 重新定价，接近 270 美元至 275 美元或更高。</blockquote> I have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.<blockquote>我不知道这种“重新评级”需要多长时间，但没有理由认为购买别针的提议会永久损害PYPL。我就是看不出来。提出报价通常不会造成任何真正的损害。如果你有其他数据，请提供。</blockquote> Heads I Win, Part 2<blockquote>我赢的头，第 2 部分</blockquote> With all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:<blockquote>排除了所有这些，也许 PINS 是一家好公司，这对 PYPL 也有好处。嗯，从表面上看，我喜欢我在这里看到的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4128074a4ab4bea3095477286834fe0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Business of Apps<blockquote>来源：应用业务</blockquote> And, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:<blockquote>而且，尽管 2021 年第二季度有所下降，但用户群正在强劲增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2dc758204cd1b7173cfdc68b4af6f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Business of Apps<blockquote>来源：应用业务</blockquote> Here's more color on that drop:<blockquote>以下是该滴的更多颜色：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3819d2ba7bf53060011a2edb152ce91f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report<blockquote>资料来源：Pinterest 2021 年第二季度收益报告</blockquote> The drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.<blockquote>下降并没有让我太担心。毕竟，由于疫情在家工作的影响，Pinterest享受到了提振。此外，你可以看到实际的同比数字，一个季度到一个季度，它们至少令人满意。</blockquote> For what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann&nbsp;explains the drop off&nbsp;it quite well:<blockquote>PINS 首席执行官本杰明·西尔伯曼 (Benjamin Silbermann) 很好地解释了放弃它的原因：</blockquote> One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs. That perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.Moving on.<blockquote>第一，在家的总体时间发生了变化。第二，去年特别相关的许多用例，比如重新装修你的家，在家教育你的孩子，在家做饭，这些都减少了。现在说随着时间的推移，这些将如何正常化还为时过早。我不会完全相同地描述当前的用户行为或当前的社会环境，但我们看到了一些有希望的早期迹象。这也完全符合我的直觉。继续前进。</blockquote> I'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:<blockquote>我也很喜欢这些数据，正确地分解以供检查：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c5df28f93bef395b5a99aa6914b196\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report<blockquote>资料来源：Pinterest 2021 年第二季度收益报告</blockquote> While I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.<blockquote>虽然我确实关心这些数字，以及随着时间的推移的改进，但我更感兴趣的是PYPL在这里可能会看到什么。也就是说，用户有价值，因为用户在购物，在购买。想象一下，如果PYPL能够通过这些用户推动更多的电子商务，或者任何类型的交易。显然，他们花钱。</blockquote> Consider the&nbsp;usage, adoption and general activity flow:<blockquote>考虑使用、采用和一般活动流程：</blockquote> “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has&nbsp; 380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month.” [Emphasis: Author's] User activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, andliterally shopping. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:<blockquote>“彭博情报高级金融科技行业分析师 Julie Chariell 说：”如果PayPal真的收购Pinterest，这家金融科技公司将在社交媒体上获得与 Instagram 相媲美的影响力，吸引高度参与度的消费者，并帮助商家销售产品。“PayPal获益匪浅： Pinterest获益匪浅3.8亿月活跃用户每月使用该应用程序37次，而PayPal用户每月活跃8到9次[强调：作者的]用户活动非常棒。现在，想象一下用户活动不仅仅是看有趣的猫视频或大峡谷的图片。相反，Pinterest上的活动非常注重浏览购买，并且字面上的购物我的意思是，这几乎就是我收集到的全部重点。数据说明了一切：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Nearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.</li> <li>4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.</li> <li>Half of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.</li> <li>Nearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.</li> <li>85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.</li> </ul> And, PINS is looking to continue down the&nbsp;user monetization path.<blockquote><ul><li>近80%的美国千禧一代女性使用Pinterest。</li><li>五分之四的美国妈妈活跃在Pinterest上。</li><li>一半的美国用户也在使用Pinterest购物。</li><li>近十分之九的用户在Pinterest上计划购买和寻找灵感。</li><li>85%的用户是根据看到品牌别针进行购买的。</li></ul>此外，PINS希望继续走用户货币化的道路。</blockquote> “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.” And, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:<blockquote>“Pinterest一直致力于提高其平台的购物能力，”他指出，“在Pinterest扩大 Shopify 合作伙伴关系的推动下”，第二季度产品库存增长了近 50%。而且，我听到很多人谈论PYPL扩大用户群的计划，因为如果他们拥有用户，他们就有一条相对容易的货币化路径。例如：</blockquote> PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now, it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's] I definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -I don't hate this deal, and that's usually a good sign.<blockquote>PayPal拥有超过 4 亿注册用户，他们是客户，但他们也是未来的产品，因为PayPal在其平台上也拥有超过 3000 万商家，这是其目前的主要目标之一，它正在努力扩大用户群，力争到 2025 年拥有 7.5 亿用户但它正试图让他们在平台上进行越来越多的交易，这就是为什么它推出了这些新产品和服务，例如先买后付；加密货币；像这样的事情。它希望基本上了解消费者的所有交易、所有金融交易，因为这样它就可以获取这些数据并将其提供给商家。【强调：作者的】我绝对看到PYPL如何帮助PINS社交电子商务更上一层楼，甚至更有效地与Shopify（商店）合作。正如我刚才对几个人说的-我不讨厌这笔交易这通常是个好兆头。</blockquote> Tails I Win, Part 2<blockquote>我赢的尾巴，第 2 部分</blockquote> At this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.<blockquote>在这一点上，根据上面的数据，你可能非常渴望看到PYPL购买PIN。我当然不反对，知道我所知道的。PINS用户相当狂热，我可以看到巨大的协同作用。这几乎让我想起了PYPL和eBay（易贝）曾经是如何在一个屋檐下的。但是，我认为在这个时代，PINS要优越得多。也就是说，在这一点上，PYPL比易贝做得更好——我对此毫不怀疑。</blockquote> I should also mention that&nbsp;the price is better now&nbsp;than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:<blockquote>我还应该提到，现在的价格比微软 (MSFT) 考虑交易时要好：</blockquote> Price tag–wise, Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high&nbsp;in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's] Even if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.<blockquote>就价格标签而言，Pinterest股价较历史高点下跌约 30%2 月份，由于该平台一直在流失用户，这一数字比今年早些时候有报道称微软正在考虑以约 510 亿美元收购该公司时有所折扣。【强调：作者】即使交易失败，我仍然认为对话是富有成效的，我仍然认为未来一些合作活动会增加。你不需要结婚才能在派对上跳舞。</blockquote> Furthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's&nbsp;messy:<blockquote>此外，我不喜欢大交易，但我确实喜欢聪明的对话。换句话说，PYPL 计划斥资 450 亿美元购买 PINS。太大了。而且很乱：</blockquote> Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “ would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's] And...<blockquote>巴克莱银行的 El-Assal 评论说，收购Pinterest将是PayPal历史上最大的一笔交易，而且 “需要不同的资金组合，而不仅仅是手头的现金就像以前的收购一样。”【强调：作者的】和……</blockquote> It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016. They can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&amp;A. According to theHarvard Business Review:<blockquote>这将是社交媒体公司最大的收购，超过了微软公司在2016年以262亿美元收购LinkedIn。他们不能只用现金买。对于 PYPL 来说，这不是一个简单的“附加”。而且，老实说，如果失败了，我会稍微欢呼一下，因为这项研究反对大型并购。根据哈佛商业评论:</blockquote> ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%. Wrap-Up<blockquote>一项又一项研究表明，并购的失败率在70%到90%之间。总结</blockquote> I hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)<blockquote>我希望有几件事是清楚的。首先，我看好 PYPL，我很高兴以 250 美元左右的价格购买。我甚至愿意买275美元，但当然，我会接受更低的价格。（感谢您的任何折扣。）</blockquote> Second,I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.<blockquote>第二，我确实明白 PINS 对 PYPL 来说是一笔不错的购买.这符合他们的用户增长和一般业务增长的使命。收入和用户货币化机会即使不是很好，也很有趣。此外，用户群本身喜欢购物和购买，这对PYPL来说是完美的。</blockquote> Third, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,Godzilla-size M&amp;A doesn't have a great record.<blockquote>第三，如果交易没有通过，那么我不会震惊，也不会难过。PIN 的价格似乎大致合适，甚至可能略有折扣 - 特别是考虑到其对 PYPL 的潜在长期价值。但是，如果谈判失败，也不会让我跳过一个节拍，或者对PYPL失去信心。事实上，我甚至会感到如释重负。再一次，哥斯拉规模的并购并没有很好的记录.</blockquote> And, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.<blockquote>最后，我看到的最大风险很简单。也就是说，PYPL决定把报价越来越高。目前，作为 PYPL 股东，这个价格是可以接受的。但是，如果价格标签继续上涨，不管出于什么原因，那么我会不那么热情。事实上，如果要约价格上涨太多，我可能不得不修改我的整个PYPL论文。资本配置不良是致命的。我想要一笔大交易，或者没有交易。我们拭目以待。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460962-paypal-stock-pinterest-acquisition\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460962-paypal-stock-pinterest-acquisition","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118528593","content_text":"Summary\n\nFirst, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS.\nSecond, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors.\nThird, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and how it could be accretive.\nFourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also quite acceptable.\n\nSean Gallup/Getty Images News\nThe purpose of this article is to take a big picture view of PayPal (PYPL) in light of the recent news regarding PYPL buying Pinterest (PINS). Quite frankly, I don't care if they buy PINS or the deal falls through. That's what I'm covering.\nHere's how the article plays out. First, I briefly discuss the news about PYPL buying PINS. Second, I explain how this improved PYPL's price for investors. Third, I describe how PINS fits into PYPL and it could be good. However, fourth, I also outline why a \"dead deal\" is also acceptable.\nThe \"Shocking\" News\nIf you're reading this, then you're probably already familiar with the news. As Bloomberg reports,PayPal Is Exploring a Purchase of Pinterest.\n\n San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, the people said.\n\n\n That would value Pinterest at about $45 billion for the entire company, including its Class B shares. A deal at that level would represent about a 26% premium to Pinterest’s Tuesday closing price of $55.58.\n\nAnd, as a result, here's what happened:\nData by YCharts\nYou might laugh that I'm showing the six month chart and that's the point. In six months, PYPL from $264 to $258, for a slight drift down. PINS is actually down about 25% over six months, from $71 to $63, for a pretty big drop. For PINS, the 13% gain today was a real gift, at least in terms of price action.\nLet's take another peek at this, in a much shorter timeframe. From a price perspective alone,in just one day, it's easy to see huge changes:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn the surface, it sure does look like PINS is on fire and PYPL is taking a hit. But, as per my very first chart above, PINS is still weak on price, even after the movement today. And, PYPL is close to breakeven from six months ago.\nIn an absolute sense, I care far less about PINS than PYPL, since I own PYPL and I like the company. So, there's a bias, just to be 100% clear.\nWith that perspective out of the way, and my bias on full display, let's take a look at what this all means for investors -especially PYPL investors.\nHeads I Win, Part 1\nSo, when the news broke, I expected a slight drop in PYPL. When I saw the drop down below $260, I got greedy. For the record, I bought more PYPL at $255.62 with a smile on my face.\nPYPL got cheaper but the value is the same, or better, as it was just 1-2 days ago. I'll explain more shortly. For now, just consider my point of view, which is that the price of PYPL went lower so I got more for my money. I ended up with a 5% discount because of some moderately good news. (More on that soon.)\nSo, before going on, I strongly encourage you to review an article that I wrote back in early August 2021:PayPal: The Star Business.\n\nPYPL is in a high growth industry.\nPYPL commands significant market share.\nPYPL is growing very fast.\nPYPL is innovating like crazy.\n\nFurthermore, I was very clear:\n\n I'm very bullish on PYPL below $250 and I'm bullish at $275. And, in fact, I've established a starter position recently at $275. I'll continue to add small amounts on the way down, if that happens.\n\nTherefore, at $255, I feel very good about buying more PYPL. It's high quality, well managed business, in a rapidly growing market. In short, when the price dropped about 5%,it simply meant getting more PYPL at a discount.\nTails I Win\nNow, let's suppose that the PINS deal falls through. In that case, I am happy because I was able to purchase more PYPL at a lower price. Again, same company, but a better bargain.\nFurthermore, let's assume the deal falls through and markets reflect on this. It's my feeling that investors will simply reprice PYPL back upwards, toward $270 to $275, or higher.\nI have no idea how long that \"rerating\" would take, but there's no reason to think that an offer to buy PINS would permanently impair PYPL. I just don't see it. Making an offer doesn't usually cause any real damage. If you have data otherwise, please offer it up.\nHeads I Win, Part 2\nWith all of that out of the way, perhaps PINS is a good company, and it's good for PYPL. Well, on the surface, I like what I see here:\nSource: Business of Apps\nAnd, the user base is growing strongly, although Q2 2021 took a dip:\nSource: Business of Apps\nHere's more color on that drop:\nSource: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report\nThe drop doesn't worry me too much. After all, Pinterest enjoyed a boost due to the stay-at-home, work-from-home effects of the pandemic. Furthermore, you can see the actual YoY numbers, quarter to quarter, and they are at least satisfactory.\nFor what it's worth, PINS CEO Benjamin Silbermann explains the drop off it quite well:\n\n One, overall time at home has shifted. And two, a lot of the use cases that were especially relevant last year, things like redecorating your home, educating your kid at home, cooking meals at home, those have lessened. Now it's early to say how those will normalize over time. I wouldn't describe the current user behavior or the current social environment exactly the same, but we're seeing some promising early signs.\n\nThat perfectly lines up with my intuition as well.Moving on.\nI'm also enjoying this data, properly broken out for inspection:\nSource: Pinterest Q2 2021 Earnings Report\nWhile I do care about the numbers, and the improvements over time, I'm more interested in what PYPL might see here. That is, users have value, because users are shopping and buying. Imagine if PYPL was able to push more e-commerce, or really any kind of transaction, through these users. Clearly, they spend money.\nConsider the usage, adoption and general activity flow:\n\n “If PayPal does buy Pinterest, the fintech gains a social media presence rivaling Instagram, bringing in highly engaged consumers and helping merchants sell products,” said Julie Chariell, Bloomberg Intelligence senior fintech industry analyst. “PayPal has much to gain: Pinterest has \n 380 million monthly active users who use the app 37 times a month, compared with 80 million PayPal users who are active eight to nine times a month.” [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nUser activity is wonderful. Now, imagine how user activity isn't just looking at funny cat videos or pictures of the Grand Canyon. Instead, the activity on Pinterest is very heavy on browsing-to-buy, andliterally shopping. I mean, that's almost entirely the point from what I gather.The data speaks volumes:\n\nNearly 80% of U.S. Millennial women are on Pinterest.\n4 in 5 U.S. moms have an active presence on Pinterest.\nHalf of U.S. users are also using Pinterest to shop.\nNearly 9 in 10 users are on Pinterest to plan purchases and find inspiration.\n85% of users have made a purchase based on seeing a branded pin.\n\nAnd, PINS is looking to continue down the user monetization path.\n\n “Pinterest has been intently focused on driving greater shoppability into its platform,” and he notes that product inventory grew almost 50% in the second quarter “driven by Pinterest’s Shopify partnership expansion.”\n\nAnd, I have heard plenty of people talk about PYPL's plans to expand their user base, since they have a relatively easy monetization path if they have the users.For example:\n\n PayPal has over 400 million registered users, and they are the customers, but they're also the product going forward because PayPal also has over 30 million merchants on its platform and one of its main goals right now,\n it's trying to grow its user base, it's trying to get 750 million users by 2025. But it's trying to get them to transact more and more on the platform, that's why it's launching these new products and services like buy now, pay later; cryptocurrency; things like this. It wants to basically know all of the transactions, all the financial dealings of its consumers, because then it can take that data and give it to merchants. [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nI definitely see how PYPL could help take PINS social e-commerce to the next level, and even more effectively partner with Shopify (SHOP) along the way. As I've said to several people now -I don't hate this deal, and that's usually a good sign.\nTails I Win, Part 2\nAt this point, per the data above, you might be very keen to see PYPL buying PINS. I am certainly not against it, knowing what I know. PINS users are rather fanatical, and I could see great synergy. It almost reminds me of how PYPL and eBay (EBAY) were once under one roof. But, I think PINS is far superior in this day and age. That is, PYPL is better off with PINS than EBAY at this point in time - I have no doubt about that in my mind.\nI should also mention that the price is better now than when Microsoft (MSFT) was considering a deal:\n\n Price tag–wise,\n Pinterest’s stock is off roughly 30% from its all-time high in February as the platform has been losing users—a discount from when reports swirled that Microsoft was looking into buying the firm at around $51 billion early this year. [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nEven if the deal falls through, I still see the conversations as being productive, and I still see some partnership activity increasing in the future. You don't need to be married to dance at the party.\nFurthermore, I don't like big deals, but I do like intelligent conversations. Put another way, PYPL is looking to spend $45 billion for PINS. That's huge. And it's messy:\n\n Barclays’ El-Assal commented that a deal for Pinterest would be the biggest one that PayPal has attempted in its history and “\n would necessitate a different mix of funding than just cash on hand, as has been the case for previous acquisitions.” [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nAnd...\n\n It would be the biggest acquisition of a social media company, surpassing Microsoft Corp's $26.2 billion purchase of LinkedIn in 2016.\n\nThey can't just buy it with cash. This isn't a simple \"bolt on\" for PYPL. And, if it fails, quite honestly, I'll cheer a little because the research is against big M&A. According to theHarvard Business Review:\n\n ...study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70% and 90%.\n\nWrap-Up\nI hope a few things are clear. First, I'm bullish on PYPL and I'm happy to be buying at prices around $250. I'm even willing to buy up to $275, but I'll take a lower price, of course. (Thank you for any discount.)\nSecond,I do see how PINS could be a great purchase for PYPL. It fits their mission for user growth, and general business growth. The revenue and user monetization opportunity is intriguing, if not excellent. Furthermore, the user base itself likes to shop and buy, which is perfect for PYPL.\nThird, if the deal does not go through, then I won't be shocked, and I won't be sad. The price for PINS seems about right, and it might even be at a slight discount - especially in its potential long-term value to PYPL. But, if talks fail, it won't cause me to skip a beat, or lose faith in PYPL whatsoever. And, in fact, I might even feel relief. Again,Godzilla-size M&A doesn't have a great record.\nAnd, finally, the biggest risk that I see is quite simple. Namely, that PYPL decides to raise the offer price, higher and higher. Right now, the price is acceptable as a PYPL shareholder. But, if the price tag keeps going up, for whatever reason, then I'll be much less enthusiastic. In fact, if the offer price goes up too much, I might have to revise my entire PYPL thesis. Poor capital allocation is deadly. I want a great deal, or no deal. We'll see how it plays out.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3170,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853845750"}