虎虎是羊的个人主页 - 老虎社区

虎虎是羊

虎虎是羊

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2021-06-15

Testing

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2021-03-03

Wsb

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2021-03-03

Meet beyond

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2021-03-02

There

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2021-03-01

Go pfizer

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2021-02-26

I guess buy the dip?

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2021-02-26

$Apple(AAPL)$buy opportunities

2021-02-26

iCar?

Wall Street Is Obsessed With an Apple Car. Why Tech Analysts Might Be Too Excited.<blockquote>华尔街痴迷于苹果汽车。为什么科技分析师可能过于兴奋。</blockquote>

2021-02-23

Why?

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2021-02-21

$GameStop(GME)$The game has stopped?

2021-02-19

@Kiongdaddy elon has spoken

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2021-02-18

Profits are halved and they resumed dividends payout? Why though

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2021-02-17

What about visa

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2021-02-16

@Seanc17 @Kiongbullish again lol

With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>

2021-02-16

Oh? This is interesting

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2021-02-16

Wonder if he is using a budget line

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2021-02-15

Reminder to self: Read this more in-depth in the morning

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2021-02-15

I guess covid affects cooking now...

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2021-02-13

Interesting.

2021-02-12

Interesting..

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去老虎APP查看更多动态

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dip?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368566946","repostId":"2114326273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368962460,"gmtCreate":1614274158950,"gmtModify":1703475748513,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>buy opportunities&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>buy opportunities&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$buy 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18:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Is Obsessed With an Apple Car. Why Tech Analysts Might Be Too Excited.<blockquote>华尔街痴迷于苹果汽车。为什么科技分析师可能过于兴奋。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165777611","media":"Barrons","summary":"Implications of Apple’s entry into the car business continues to generate muchspeculationand manyana","content":"<p>Implications of Apple’s entry into the car business continues to generate muchspeculationand manyanalyst reportsfrom various stockbrokerage firms. Piper Sandler weighed into the debate Wednesday, saying an Apple car makes perfect sense. Investors, however, should remember that producing an automobile is very, very different from making a smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>苹果进入汽车行业的影响继续引发许多猜测和来自各股票经纪公司的许多分析师报告。派珀·桑德勒(Piper Sandler)周三参与了辩论，称苹果汽车非常有意义。然而，投资者应该记住，生产汽车与制造智能手机非常非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> Piper tech analystHarsh Kumarsays the timing is right for an&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(ticker: AAPL) car. “The company can enter the market at a time of peak technology disruption while avoiding the risk of forming the market,” wrote the analyst in a Wednesday research report. Electric vehicles are proliferating, and autonomous driving technology is advancing. Cars will drive and feel different in the future—an Apple car would likely be an all-electric vehicle with self-driving options.</p><p><blockquote>Piper tech分析师Harsh Kumar表示，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）汽车的时机恰到好处。该分析师在周三的研究报告中写道：“该公司可以在技术颠覆高峰期进入市场，同时避免形成市场的风险。”电动汽车激增，自动驾驶技术进步。未来汽车的驾驶和感觉将会有所不同——苹果汽车很可能是一款具有自动驾驶选项的全电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has so far declined to comment about any car plans recently.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，苹果拒绝对最近的任何汽车计划发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> Kumar covers Apple and other technology stocks. His 23-page report dives deep into the auto business—for tech investors. Industry size and market segmentation between, say, luxury cars and economy sedans, covered in his report, are par for the course in auto research.</p><p><blockquote>Kumar涵盖了苹果和其他科技股。他长达23页的报告深入探讨了汽车行业——面向科技投资者。他的报告中涵盖的豪华汽车和经济型轿车之间的行业规模和市场细分在汽车研究中是正常的。</blockquote></p><p> He assumes Apple, down the road, will sell 100,000 cars in year one. That might be aggressive.NIO(NIO),Li Auto(LI), andXPeng(XPEV) are threeEV startupsthat have been in business for years. They managed to sell about 100,000 vehicles on a combined basis in 2020. Kumar thinks Apple can be delivering 1 million cars by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>他假设苹果未来第一年将售出10万辆汽车。这可能很激进。蔚来（蔚来）、理想汽车（LI）和小鹏汽车（XPEV）是三家已经经营多年的电动汽车初创公司。2020年，他们总共售出了约10万辆汽车。Kumar认为苹果到2030年可以交付100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> For tech analysts at this point, the Apple car appears to be an exercise in fun with numbers. They are attracted to the huge market size: New car sales top $2.5 trillion annually. But auto analysts’ enthusiasm for an Apple vehicle is more tempered, and perhaps for good reason.</p><p><blockquote>对于目前的科技分析师来说，苹果汽车似乎是一次玩弄数字的练习。他们被巨大的市场规模所吸引：每年新车销售额超过2.5万亿美元。但汽车分析师对苹果汽车的热情更加温和，这或许是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p> One factor that might hamper Apple’s ambitions is that cars are, of course, significantly more expensive than phones, making the purchase decision very different. In addition, “the regulatory side of the auto business is brutal and takes years to get through,” Benchmark auto analystMike Wardtells<i>Barron’s</i>.</p><p><blockquote>可能阻碍苹果雄心的一个因素是，汽车当然比手机贵得多，这使得购买决定非常不同。此外，Benchmark汽车分析师迈克·沃德(Mike Wardt)表示，“汽车行业的监管非常残酷，需要数年时间才能通过”<i>巴伦周刊</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Ward says he isn’t hearing Apple buzz in the auto industry. It’s “pretty tough to keep that quiet in the auto industry—thousands of suppliers, [government] approvals, the size of the factory needed, etc.” He isn’t saying it can’t happen, but it is harder than many investors might expect.</p><p><blockquote>沃德表示，他没有听到汽车行业的苹果热议。“在汽车行业保持这种安静是相当困难的——数以千计的供应商、[政府]批准、所需工厂的规模等等。”他并不是说这不可能发生，但这比许多投资者预期的要困难。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonasalso covers cars mainly. He doesn’t appear certain an Apple car is on the way, but if one does show up, “don’t expect steering wheels.” That means full self-driving, which also means the Apple car is still years away.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯也主要研究汽车。他似乎不确定是否有一辆苹果汽车在路上，但如果确实出现，“不要指望方向盘。”这意味着完全自动驾驶，这也意味着苹果汽车还需要数年时间。</blockquote></p><p> He believes an Apple car can accelerate EV penetration. That could help existing auto makers with more progressive approaches to the EV market. But higher penetration isn’t a panacea for the car business. “At some point, today’s EV players must share the sandbox,” wrote the analyst in a recent report.</p><p><blockquote>他相信苹果汽车可以加速电动汽车的渗透。这可以帮助现有汽车制造商对电动汽车市场采取更先进的方法。但更高的渗透率并不是汽车行业的灵丹妙药。这位分析师在最近的一份报告中写道：“在某些时候，今天的电动汽车玩家必须共享沙盒。”</blockquote></p><p> That threat isn’t affecting his ratings on competitors yet. He rate Tesla stock Buy and callsGeneral Motors(GM) a top pick.</p><p><blockquote>这种威胁尚未影响他对竞争对手的评级。他将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将通用汽车(GM)列为首选。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan‘s tech and car teams produced a joint report recently, and they don’t see an Apple car coming soon. They agreed if an Apple car is on the way, it will be delayed until full self-driving capability is more widely available.Robotaxi services, which can handle city driving, are planned in the next couple of years. But full self-driving capabilities are farther away—the cost of sensors needs to fall, and the software still needs to improve.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通的技术和汽车团队最近发布了一份联合报告，他们认为苹果汽车不会很快推出。他们一致认为，如果苹果汽车即将上市，它将被推迟，直到全自动驾驶功能更广泛可用。可以处理城市驾驶的机器人出租车服务计划在未来几年内推出。但全自动驾驶能力还很遥远——传感器的成本需要下降，软件仍需改进。</blockquote></p><p> The firm’s U.S. auto analystRyan Brinkmanadded that a new competitor the size and strength of Apple is a negative for existing auto makers, but, like Ward, he hasn’t heard about any collaboration in the auto-supply base.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的美国汽车分析师扬·布林克曼补充说，像苹果这样规模和实力的新竞争对手对现有汽车制造商来说是负面的，但和沃德一样，他没有听说汽车供应基地有任何合作。</blockquote></p><p> Another thing J.P. Morgan agrees on is outsourced manufacturing, meaning that Apple isn’t likely to assemble its car. That creates an opportunity for some existing car marker to build more volume. What company would win, however, isanyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通同意的另一件事是外包制造，这意味着苹果不太可能组装其汽车。这为一些现有的汽车标记创造了增加销量的机会。然而，谁也说不准哪家公司会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analystDan Ives, who covers disruptive technology, which includes Apple and EV makerTesla(TSLA), is placing his bets onVolkswagen(VOW.Germany). “We assign a 85%-plus chance that Apple will announce an EV partnership/collaboration over the next 3 to 6 months,” wrote Ives in a recent report. “We continue to strongly believe that VW is a top candidate for an Apple EV partnership/JV given the company’s modular factory footprint as well as the keyQuantumScapeownership.”</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives研究颠覆性技术，包括苹果和电动汽车制造商特斯拉(TSLA)，他将赌注押在大众汽车(VOW.Germany)上。Ives在最近的一份报告中写道：“我们认为苹果将在未来3到6个月内宣布电动汽车合作伙伴关系/合作的可能性超过85%。”“鉴于大众汽车的模块化工厂足迹以及KeyQuantumScape所有权，我们仍然坚信大众汽车是苹果电动汽车合作伙伴/合资企业的首选候选者。”</blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape&nbsp;(QS) is&nbsp;pioneering&nbsp;solid-state lithium anode batteries that promise to improve electric-vehicle range and safety, while lowering costs and charge time.</p><p><blockquote>QuantumScape(QS)是固态锂阳极电池的先驱，有望提高电动汽车的续航里程和安全性，同时降低成本和充电时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple car hopes aren’t affecting investors much yet. Since new reports of a possible Apple car surfaced in December, GM and Tesla shares are up about 26% and 10%, respectively. TheS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average,for comparison, are up about 5% and 4%, respectively. Apple shares are down about 6%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果汽车的希望尚未对投资者产生太大影响。自去年12月有关可能推出苹果汽车的新报道浮出水面以来，通用汽车和特斯拉的股价分别上涨了约26%和10%。相比之下，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨约5%和4%。苹果股价下跌约6%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, it appears, have other more pressing issues on their minds.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎还有其他更紧迫的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Is Obsessed With an Apple Car. Why Tech Analysts Might Be Too Excited.<blockquote>华尔街痴迷于苹果汽车。为什么科技分析师可能过于兴奋。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Is Obsessed With an Apple Car. Why Tech Analysts Might Be Too Excited.<blockquote>华尔街痴迷于苹果汽车。为什么科技分析师可能过于兴奋。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-25 18:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Implications of Apple’s entry into the car business continues to generate muchspeculationand manyanalyst reportsfrom various stockbrokerage firms. Piper Sandler weighed into the debate Wednesday, saying an Apple car makes perfect sense. Investors, however, should remember that producing an automobile is very, very different from making a smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>苹果进入汽车行业的影响继续引发许多猜测和来自各股票经纪公司的许多分析师报告。派珀·桑德勒(Piper Sandler)周三参与了辩论，称苹果汽车非常有意义。然而，投资者应该记住，生产汽车与制造智能手机非常非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> Piper tech analystHarsh Kumarsays the timing is right for an&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;(ticker: AAPL) car. “The company can enter the market at a time of peak technology disruption while avoiding the risk of forming the market,” wrote the analyst in a Wednesday research report. Electric vehicles are proliferating, and autonomous driving technology is advancing. Cars will drive and feel different in the future—an Apple car would likely be an all-electric vehicle with self-driving options.</p><p><blockquote>Piper tech分析师Harsh Kumar表示，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）汽车的时机恰到好处。该分析师在周三的研究报告中写道：“该公司可以在技术颠覆高峰期进入市场，同时避免形成市场的风险。”电动汽车激增，自动驾驶技术进步。未来汽车的驾驶和感觉将会有所不同——苹果汽车很可能是一款具有自动驾驶选项的全电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has so far declined to comment about any car plans recently.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，苹果拒绝对最近的任何汽车计划发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> Kumar covers Apple and other technology stocks. His 23-page report dives deep into the auto business—for tech investors. Industry size and market segmentation between, say, luxury cars and economy sedans, covered in his report, are par for the course in auto research.</p><p><blockquote>Kumar涵盖了苹果和其他科技股。他长达23页的报告深入探讨了汽车行业——面向科技投资者。他的报告中涵盖的豪华汽车和经济型轿车之间的行业规模和市场细分在汽车研究中是正常的。</blockquote></p><p> He assumes Apple, down the road, will sell 100,000 cars in year one. That might be aggressive.NIO(NIO),Li Auto(LI), andXPeng(XPEV) are threeEV startupsthat have been in business for years. They managed to sell about 100,000 vehicles on a combined basis in 2020. Kumar thinks Apple can be delivering 1 million cars by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>他假设苹果未来第一年将售出10万辆汽车。这可能很激进。蔚来（蔚来）、理想汽车（LI）和小鹏汽车（XPEV）是三家已经经营多年的电动汽车初创公司。2020年，他们总共售出了约10万辆汽车。Kumar认为苹果到2030年可以交付100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> For tech analysts at this point, the Apple car appears to be an exercise in fun with numbers. They are attracted to the huge market size: New car sales top $2.5 trillion annually. But auto analysts’ enthusiasm for an Apple vehicle is more tempered, and perhaps for good reason.</p><p><blockquote>对于目前的科技分析师来说，苹果汽车似乎是一次玩弄数字的练习。他们被巨大的市场规模所吸引：每年新车销售额超过2.5万亿美元。但汽车分析师对苹果汽车的热情更加温和，这或许是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p> One factor that might hamper Apple’s ambitions is that cars are, of course, significantly more expensive than phones, making the purchase decision very different. In addition, “the regulatory side of the auto business is brutal and takes years to get through,” Benchmark auto analystMike Wardtells<i>Barron’s</i>.</p><p><blockquote>可能阻碍苹果雄心的一个因素是，汽车当然比手机贵得多，这使得购买决定非常不同。此外，Benchmark汽车分析师迈克·沃德(Mike Wardt)表示，“汽车行业的监管非常残酷，需要数年时间才能通过”<i>巴伦周刊</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Ward says he isn’t hearing Apple buzz in the auto industry. It’s “pretty tough to keep that quiet in the auto industry—thousands of suppliers, [government] approvals, the size of the factory needed, etc.” He isn’t saying it can’t happen, but it is harder than many investors might expect.</p><p><blockquote>沃德表示，他没有听到汽车行业的苹果热议。“在汽车行业保持这种安静是相当困难的——数以千计的供应商、[政府]批准、所需工厂的规模等等。”他并不是说这不可能发生，但这比许多投资者预期的要困难。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonasalso covers cars mainly. He doesn’t appear certain an Apple car is on the way, but if one does show up, “don’t expect steering wheels.” That means full self-driving, which also means the Apple car is still years away.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯也主要研究汽车。他似乎不确定是否有一辆苹果汽车在路上，但如果确实出现，“不要指望方向盘。”这意味着完全自动驾驶，这也意味着苹果汽车还需要数年时间。</blockquote></p><p> He believes an Apple car can accelerate EV penetration. That could help existing auto makers with more progressive approaches to the EV market. But higher penetration isn’t a panacea for the car business. “At some point, today’s EV players must share the sandbox,” wrote the analyst in a recent report.</p><p><blockquote>他相信苹果汽车可以加速电动汽车的渗透。这可以帮助现有汽车制造商对电动汽车市场采取更先进的方法。但更高的渗透率并不是汽车行业的灵丹妙药。这位分析师在最近的一份报告中写道：“在某些时候，今天的电动汽车玩家必须共享沙盒。”</blockquote></p><p> That threat isn’t affecting his ratings on competitors yet. He rate Tesla stock Buy and callsGeneral Motors(GM) a top pick.</p><p><blockquote>这种威胁尚未影响他对竞争对手的评级。他将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将通用汽车(GM)列为首选。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan‘s tech and car teams produced a joint report recently, and they don’t see an Apple car coming soon. They agreed if an Apple car is on the way, it will be delayed until full self-driving capability is more widely available.Robotaxi services, which can handle city driving, are planned in the next couple of years. But full self-driving capabilities are farther away—the cost of sensors needs to fall, and the software still needs to improve.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通的技术和汽车团队最近发布了一份联合报告，他们认为苹果汽车不会很快推出。他们一致认为，如果苹果汽车即将上市，它将被推迟，直到全自动驾驶功能更广泛可用。可以处理城市驾驶的机器人出租车服务计划在未来几年内推出。但全自动驾驶能力还很遥远——传感器的成本需要下降，软件仍需改进。</blockquote></p><p> The firm’s U.S. auto analystRyan Brinkmanadded that a new competitor the size and strength of Apple is a negative for existing auto makers, but, like Ward, he hasn’t heard about any collaboration in the auto-supply base.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的美国汽车分析师扬·布林克曼补充说，像苹果这样规模和实力的新竞争对手对现有汽车制造商来说是负面的，但和沃德一样，他没有听说汽车供应基地有任何合作。</blockquote></p><p> Another thing J.P. Morgan agrees on is outsourced manufacturing, meaning that Apple isn’t likely to assemble its car. That creates an opportunity for some existing car marker to build more volume. What company would win, however, isanyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通同意的另一件事是外包制造，这意味着苹果不太可能组装其汽车。这为一些现有的汽车标记创造了增加销量的机会。然而，谁也说不准哪家公司会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analystDan Ives, who covers disruptive technology, which includes Apple and EV makerTesla(TSLA), is placing his bets onVolkswagen(VOW.Germany). “We assign a 85%-plus chance that Apple will announce an EV partnership/collaboration over the next 3 to 6 months,” wrote Ives in a recent report. “We continue to strongly believe that VW is a top candidate for an Apple EV partnership/JV given the company’s modular factory footprint as well as the keyQuantumScapeownership.”</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives研究颠覆性技术，包括苹果和电动汽车制造商特斯拉(TSLA)，他将赌注押在大众汽车(VOW.Germany)上。Ives在最近的一份报告中写道：“我们认为苹果将在未来3到6个月内宣布电动汽车合作伙伴关系/合作的可能性超过85%。”“鉴于大众汽车的模块化工厂足迹以及KeyQuantumScape所有权，我们仍然坚信大众汽车是苹果电动汽车合作伙伴/合资企业的首选候选者。”</blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape&nbsp;(QS) is&nbsp;pioneering&nbsp;solid-state lithium anode batteries that promise to improve electric-vehicle range and safety, while lowering costs and charge time.</p><p><blockquote>QuantumScape(QS)是固态锂阳极电池的先驱，有望提高电动汽车的续航里程和安全性，同时降低成本和充电时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple car hopes aren’t affecting investors much yet. Since new reports of a possible Apple car surfaced in December, GM and Tesla shares are up about 26% and 10%, respectively. TheS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average,for comparison, are up about 5% and 4%, respectively. Apple shares are down about 6%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果汽车的希望尚未对投资者产生太大影响。自去年12月有关可能推出苹果汽车的新报道浮出水面以来，通用汽车和特斯拉的股价分别上涨了约26%和10%。相比之下，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨约5%和4%。苹果股价下跌约6%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, it appears, have other more pressing issues on their minds.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎还有其他更紧迫的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-apple-stock-ev-tech-car-51614187099?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-apple-stock-ev-tech-car-51614187099?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165777611","content_text":"Implications of Apple’s entry into the car business continues to generate muchspeculationand manyanalyst reportsfrom various stockbrokerage firms. Piper Sandler weighed into the debate Wednesday, saying an Apple car makes perfect sense. Investors, however, should remember that producing an automobile is very, very different from making a smartphone.\nPiper tech analystHarsh Kumarsays the timing is right for an Apple (ticker: AAPL) car. “The company can enter the market at a time of peak technology disruption while avoiding the risk of forming the market,” wrote the analyst in a Wednesday research report. Electric vehicles are proliferating, and autonomous driving technology is advancing. Cars will drive and feel different in the future—an Apple car would likely be an all-electric vehicle with self-driving options.\nApple has so far declined to comment about any car plans recently.\nKumar covers Apple and other technology stocks. His 23-page report dives deep into the auto business—for tech investors. Industry size and market segmentation between, say, luxury cars and economy sedans, covered in his report, are par for the course in auto research.\nHe assumes Apple, down the road, will sell 100,000 cars in year one. That might be aggressive.NIO(NIO),Li Auto(LI), andXPeng(XPEV) are threeEV startupsthat have been in business for years. They managed to sell about 100,000 vehicles on a combined basis in 2020. Kumar thinks Apple can be delivering 1 million cars by 2030.\nFor tech analysts at this point, the Apple car appears to be an exercise in fun with numbers. They are attracted to the huge market size: New car sales top $2.5 trillion annually. But auto analysts’ enthusiasm for an Apple vehicle is more tempered, and perhaps for good reason.\nOne factor that might hamper Apple’s ambitions is that cars are, of course, significantly more expensive than phones, making the purchase decision very different. In addition, “the regulatory side of the auto business is brutal and takes years to get through,” Benchmark auto analystMike WardtellsBarron’s.\nWard says he isn’t hearing Apple buzz in the auto industry. It’s “pretty tough to keep that quiet in the auto industry—thousands of suppliers, [government] approvals, the size of the factory needed, etc.” He isn’t saying it can’t happen, but it is harder than many investors might expect.\nMorgan Stanley analystAdam Jonasalso covers cars mainly. He doesn’t appear certain an Apple car is on the way, but if one does show up, “don’t expect steering wheels.” That means full self-driving, which also means the Apple car is still years away.\nHe believes an Apple car can accelerate EV penetration. That could help existing auto makers with more progressive approaches to the EV market. But higher penetration isn’t a panacea for the car business. “At some point, today’s EV players must share the sandbox,” wrote the analyst in a recent report.\nThat threat isn’t affecting his ratings on competitors yet. He rate Tesla stock Buy and callsGeneral Motors(GM) a top pick.\nJ.P. Morgan‘s tech and car teams produced a joint report recently, and they don’t see an Apple car coming soon. They agreed if an Apple car is on the way, it will be delayed until full self-driving capability is more widely available.Robotaxi services, which can handle city driving, are planned in the next couple of years. But full self-driving capabilities are farther away—the cost of sensors needs to fall, and the software still needs to improve.\nThe firm’s U.S. auto analystRyan Brinkmanadded that a new competitor the size and strength of Apple is a negative for existing auto makers, but, like Ward, he hasn’t heard about any collaboration in the auto-supply base.\nAnother thing J.P. Morgan agrees on is outsourced manufacturing, meaning that Apple isn’t likely to assemble its car. That creates an opportunity for some existing car marker to build more volume. What company would win, however, isanyone’s guess.\nWedbush analystDan Ives, who covers disruptive technology, which includes Apple and EV makerTesla(TSLA), is placing his bets onVolkswagen(VOW.Germany). “We assign a 85%-plus chance that Apple will announce an EV partnership/collaboration over the next 3 to 6 months,” wrote Ives in a recent report. “We continue to strongly believe that VW is a top candidate for an Apple EV partnership/JV given the company’s modular factory footprint as well as the keyQuantumScapeownership.”\nQuantumScape (QS) is pioneering solid-state lithium anode batteries that promise to improve electric-vehicle range and safety, while lowering costs and charge time.\nApple car hopes aren’t affecting investors much yet. Since new reports of a possible Apple car surfaced in December, GM and Tesla shares are up about 26% and 10%, respectively. TheS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average,for comparison, are up about 5% and 4%, respectively. Apple shares are down about 6%.\nInvestors, it appears, have other more pressing issues on their minds.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363027921,"gmtCreate":1614085291163,"gmtModify":1634551242649,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why?","listText":"Why?","text":"Why?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363027921","repostId":"1178144401","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360198272,"gmtCreate":1613866079396,"gmtModify":1634552042999,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>The game has stopped?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>The game has stopped?","text":"$GameStop(GME)$The game has stopped?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860917ba3942e8ab5ff135f8ef85ccc4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360198272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387631830,"gmtCreate":1613744077420,"gmtModify":1634552405652,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>daddy elon has spoken","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>daddy elon has spoken","text":"@Kiongdaddy elon has spoken","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387631830","repostId":"2112819819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384246059,"gmtCreate":1613658890371,"gmtModify":1634552744858,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Profits are halved and they resumed dividends payout? Why though","listText":"Profits are halved and they resumed dividends payout? Why though","text":"Profits are halved and they resumed dividends payout? Why though","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384246059","repostId":"2112866301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385722712,"gmtCreate":1613577272136,"gmtModify":1634553067941,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What about visa","listText":"What about visa","text":"What about visa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385722712","repostId":"1109567373","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382737190,"gmtCreate":1613482890310,"gmtModify":1634553486885,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569113789905631\">@Seanc17</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>bullish again lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569113789905631\">@Seanc17</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>bullish again lol","text":"@Seanc17@Kiongbullish again lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382737190","repostId":"1108705396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108705396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613469786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108705396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 18:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108705396","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a doubl","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington&nbsp;and millions of families were about to&nbsp;lose crucial benefits.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>2020年底，饱受新冠疫情蹂躏的美国经济濒临陷入双底衰退。疫情正在加剧，僵局使华盛顿陷入瘫痪，数百万家庭即将失去重要福利。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward two months, and the&nbsp;economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>快进两个月，经济仍在挣扎，但对复苏的信心正在迅速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家正在迅速上调GDP和失业率预测，并将美联储能够提高最低利率的日期提前。高盛预测美国经济将以三十多年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the&nbsp;health crisis is easing&nbsp;and Uncle Sam is&nbsp;coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p><p><blockquote>重新燃起的乐观情绪是由两个主要因素推动的：健康危机正在缓解，山姆大叔正在提供惊人数量的援助——比几个月前似乎多了数千亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>根据穆迪分析公司的数据，继去年提供4万亿美元的救助后，华盛顿预计将在2021年再提供2万亿美元的赤字融资支持。这相当于美国年度GDP的四分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> \"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)告诉CNN Business：“这是大量的经济动力。”</blockquote></p><p> The turning point happened last month&nbsp;when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p><p><blockquote>转折点发生在上个月，当时民主党在佐治亚州的决选中以微弱优势控制了美国参议院。这为乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划开辟了道路，该计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、提高失业救济金以及向州和地方政府提供3500亿美元的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季迷你热潮”</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a&nbsp;forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote>在佐治亚州选举之前，赞迪认为美国经济要到2023年春季或夏季才能恢复充分就业（强劲的劳动力市场，失业率为4%）。现在，他预计这一成就将在明年春天实现，这与财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的预测相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近给客户的一份报告中写道，“超级财政政策”意味着美国经济增长快于其他国家的论点“似乎日益强烈”。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco呼吁美国出现“夏季小繁荣”，2021年GDP增长5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>同样，杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家表示，“爆炸性的收入增长（得益于财政刺激）可能会推动美国GDP今年增长6.4%，明年增长近5%。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞在最近的一份报告中告诉客户：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们的预测可能过于保守。”他指出，其观点仅纳入了拜登计划的1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，高盛本周早些时候将2021年GDP预期上调至6.8%，因为这家华尔街银行现在假设额外财政救助为1.5万亿美元，高于此前的1.1万亿美元。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，如果高盛的预测成真，这将是美国自1989年以来最快的年度GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的GDP预测远高于美联储的要求。去年12月，美联储预计2021年GDP增长仅为4.2%，并表示失业率要到2023年才会降至4%以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>避免了双底衰退</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对经济预测趋于保守。而且，至关重要的是，美联储的预测是在DC政治功能失调给美国经济蒙上阴影之际发布的。</blockquote></p><p> For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，共和党和民主党试图就延长计划失效的关键失业和驱逐福利以及向小企业提供更多可原谅贷款达成协议，但未能达成协议。然后当最终达成协议时，前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要炸毁它。</blockquote></p><p> At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一刻，特朗普将9000亿美元的救助计划签署成为法律，避免了经济灾难。</blockquote></p><p> \"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“如果没有这一点，我们将陷入双底衰退。”</blockquote></p><p> Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States&nbsp;added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p><p><blockquote>受疫情冲击，美国经济一瘸一拐地走到2020年底，今年开局缓慢。12月，雇主自春季以来首次裁员。美国1月份仅增加了49,000个就业岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数仍然高得惊人。仅上周就有793,000名美国人首次申请失业救济。就背景而言，这高于大衰退的最严重水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗拯救生命</b></blockquote></p><p> But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情仍有一线希望。尽管Covid死亡人数仍然高得难以想象，但住院人数和病例数已经下降。</blockquote></p><p> Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，冠状病毒疫苗的推出正在加速。据摩根士丹利称，在总共分发的6600万支疫苗中，约70%已经接种。</blockquote></p><p> And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday&nbsp;that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p><p><blockquote>美国顶级传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周四告诉NBC新闻，美国可能能够在夏季中期或结束前为大多数美国人接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些使得包括加利福尼亚、纽约和新泽西在内的州放松了对餐馆和其他小企业的健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants&nbsp;force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说疫情已经结束。事实上，一个风险是，新的Covid-19变种迫使美国各州和城市再次收紧健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>低薪工人仍然受到严重伤害</b></blockquote></p><p> Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，许多经济学家敦促华盛顿推进激进的财政刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> \"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“请把脚平放在油门上。”“政策制定101说，错误在于做得太多，而不是做得太少。”</blockquote></p><p> Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p><p><blockquote>做得太少可能会加剧美国的不平等问题。这是因为与之前的衰退相比，这次衰退对餐馆、儿童保育和酒店业等遭受重创行业的低收入工人造成了不成比例的伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据Opportunity Insights经济跟踪系统的数据，低工资工人（年收入低于27,000美元的人）的就业水平仍下降了20%以上。相比之下，年收入超过6万美元的人的就业水平高于危机前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的经济学家在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果收入和种族群体之间的充分就业情况不明显，拜登的团队就不太可能为实现充分就业而开香槟。”</blockquote></p><p> However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，前美联储官员、现任Quill Intelligence首席执行官丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth)担心，专注于提供收入，而不是投资基础设施和再培训工人，会让该国沉迷于刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯说：“经济将变成这个依赖患者，总是等待下一次注射。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Bring it on'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“来吧”</b></blockquote></p><p> Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington&nbsp;overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p><p><blockquote>包括前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的一些经济学家警告说，华盛顿注入过多支持可能会导致经济过热。</blockquote></p><p> \"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯表示：“未来几个月可能会出现相当大的通胀恐慌，这将考验债券市场和美联储。”</blockquote></p><p> And that in turn would spook the&nbsp;red-hot stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这反过来又会惊动炙手可热的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p><p><blockquote>美联储观察人士正在提前确定美联储何时能够结束紧急政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>高盛援引“通胀前景走强的迹象”，目前预计美联储将在2022年初开始“缩减”资产购买规模，并在2024年上半年加息。</blockquote></p><p> Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p><p><blockquote>赞迪并没有因为通货膨胀而失眠，主要是因为美国还远未实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一种被大大夸大的担忧，”他说。“来吧。十多年来，我们最大的问题一直是低通胀。更高的通胀将是一个高级问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 18:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington&nbsp;and millions of families were about to&nbsp;lose crucial benefits.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>2020年底，饱受新冠疫情蹂躏的美国经济濒临陷入双底衰退。疫情正在加剧，僵局使华盛顿陷入瘫痪，数百万家庭即将失去重要福利。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward two months, and the&nbsp;economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>快进两个月，经济仍在挣扎，但对复苏的信心正在迅速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家正在迅速上调GDP和失业率预测，并将美联储能够提高最低利率的日期提前。高盛预测美国经济将以三十多年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the&nbsp;health crisis is easing&nbsp;and Uncle Sam is&nbsp;coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p><p><blockquote>重新燃起的乐观情绪是由两个主要因素推动的：健康危机正在缓解，山姆大叔正在提供惊人数量的援助——比几个月前似乎多了数千亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>根据穆迪分析公司的数据，继去年提供4万亿美元的救助后，华盛顿预计将在2021年再提供2万亿美元的赤字融资支持。这相当于美国年度GDP的四分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> \"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)告诉CNN Business：“这是大量的经济动力。”</blockquote></p><p> The turning point happened last month&nbsp;when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p><p><blockquote>转折点发生在上个月，当时民主党在佐治亚州的决选中以微弱优势控制了美国参议院。这为乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划开辟了道路，该计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、提高失业救济金以及向州和地方政府提供3500亿美元的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季迷你热潮”</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a&nbsp;forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote>在佐治亚州选举之前，赞迪认为美国经济要到2023年春季或夏季才能恢复充分就业（强劲的劳动力市场，失业率为4%）。现在，他预计这一成就将在明年春天实现，这与财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的预测相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近给客户的一份报告中写道，“超级财政政策”意味着美国经济增长快于其他国家的论点“似乎日益强烈”。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco呼吁美国出现“夏季小繁荣”，2021年GDP增长5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>同样，杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家表示，“爆炸性的收入增长（得益于财政刺激）可能会推动美国GDP今年增长6.4%，明年增长近5%。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞在最近的一份报告中告诉客户：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们的预测可能过于保守。”他指出，其观点仅纳入了拜登计划的1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，高盛本周早些时候将2021年GDP预期上调至6.8%，因为这家华尔街银行现在假设额外财政救助为1.5万亿美元，高于此前的1.1万亿美元。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，如果高盛的预测成真，这将是美国自1989年以来最快的年度GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的GDP预测远高于美联储的要求。去年12月，美联储预计2021年GDP增长仅为4.2%，并表示失业率要到2023年才会降至4%以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>避免了双底衰退</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对经济预测趋于保守。而且，至关重要的是，美联储的预测是在DC政治功能失调给美国经济蒙上阴影之际发布的。</blockquote></p><p> For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，共和党和民主党试图就延长计划失效的关键失业和驱逐福利以及向小企业提供更多可原谅贷款达成协议，但未能达成协议。然后当最终达成协议时，前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要炸毁它。</blockquote></p><p> At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一刻，特朗普将9000亿美元的救助计划签署成为法律，避免了经济灾难。</blockquote></p><p> \"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“如果没有这一点，我们将陷入双底衰退。”</blockquote></p><p> Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States&nbsp;added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p><p><blockquote>受疫情冲击，美国经济一瘸一拐地走到2020年底，今年开局缓慢。12月，雇主自春季以来首次裁员。美国1月份仅增加了49,000个就业岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数仍然高得惊人。仅上周就有793,000名美国人首次申请失业救济。就背景而言，这高于大衰退的最严重水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗拯救生命</b></blockquote></p><p> But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情仍有一线希望。尽管Covid死亡人数仍然高得难以想象，但住院人数和病例数已经下降。</blockquote></p><p> Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，冠状病毒疫苗的推出正在加速。据摩根士丹利称，在总共分发的6600万支疫苗中，约70%已经接种。</blockquote></p><p> And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday&nbsp;that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p><p><blockquote>美国顶级传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周四告诉NBC新闻，美国可能能够在夏季中期或结束前为大多数美国人接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些使得包括加利福尼亚、纽约和新泽西在内的州放松了对餐馆和其他小企业的健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants&nbsp;force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说疫情已经结束。事实上，一个风险是，新的Covid-19变种迫使美国各州和城市再次收紧健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>低薪工人仍然受到严重伤害</b></blockquote></p><p> Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，许多经济学家敦促华盛顿推进激进的财政刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> \"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“请把脚平放在油门上。”“政策制定101说，错误在于做得太多，而不是做得太少。”</blockquote></p><p> Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p><p><blockquote>做得太少可能会加剧美国的不平等问题。这是因为与之前的衰退相比，这次衰退对餐馆、儿童保育和酒店业等遭受重创行业的低收入工人造成了不成比例的伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据Opportunity Insights经济跟踪系统的数据，低工资工人（年收入低于27,000美元的人）的就业水平仍下降了20%以上。相比之下，年收入超过6万美元的人的就业水平高于危机前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的经济学家在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果收入和种族群体之间的充分就业情况不明显，拜登的团队就不太可能为实现充分就业而开香槟。”</blockquote></p><p> However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，前美联储官员、现任Quill Intelligence首席执行官丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth)担心，专注于提供收入，而不是投资基础设施和再培训工人，会让该国沉迷于刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯说：“经济将变成这个依赖患者，总是等待下一次注射。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Bring it on'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“来吧”</b></blockquote></p><p> Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington&nbsp;overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p><p><blockquote>包括前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的一些经济学家警告说，华盛顿注入过多支持可能会导致经济过热。</blockquote></p><p> \"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯表示：“未来几个月可能会出现相当大的通胀恐慌，这将考验债券市场和美联储。”</blockquote></p><p> And that in turn would spook the&nbsp;red-hot stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这反过来又会惊动炙手可热的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p><p><blockquote>美联储观察人士正在提前确定美联储何时能够结束紧急政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>高盛援引“通胀前景走强的迹象”，目前预计美联储将在2022年初开始“缩减”资产购买规模，并在2024年上半年加息。</blockquote></p><p> Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p><p><blockquote>赞迪并没有因为通货膨胀而失眠，主要是因为美国还远未实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一种被大大夸大的担忧，”他说。“来吧。十多年来，我们最大的问题一直是低通胀。更高的通胀将是一个高级问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108705396","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and millions of families were about to lose crucial benefits.\nFast forward two months, and the economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.\nEconomists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.\nThe renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the health crisis is easing and Uncle Sam is coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.\nAfter supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.\n\"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.\nThe turning point happened last month when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.\n'Summer mini-boom'\nBefore the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\n\"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.\nOxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.\nLikewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"\n\"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.\nIndeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.\nThe rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.\nDouble-dip recession averted\nThe Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.\nFor months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.\nAt the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.\n\"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.\nSlammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States added just 49,000 jobs in January.\nJobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.\nVaccines to the rescue\nBut there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.\nCritically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.\nAnd Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.\nAll of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.\nThat's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.\nLow-wage workers are still hurting badly\nAgainst this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.\n\"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"\nDoing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.\nEmployment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.\n\"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.\nHowever, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.\n\"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.\n'Bring it on'\nSome economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington overheats the economy by injecting too much support.\n\"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.\nAnd that in turn would spook the red-hot stock market.\nFed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.\nCiting \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.\nZandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.\n\"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382834448,"gmtCreate":1613406760884,"gmtModify":1634553744415,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh? This is interesting","listText":"Oh? This is interesting","text":"Oh? This is interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382834448","repostId":"2110549049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382834217,"gmtCreate":1613406736239,"gmtModify":1634553744660,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wonder if he is using a budget line","listText":"Wonder if he is using a budget line","text":"Wonder if he is using a budget line","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382834217","repostId":"2110049524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382078937,"gmtCreate":1613320320329,"gmtModify":1634553944669,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569296375283882","idStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reminder to self: Read this more in-depth in the morning","listText":"Reminder to self: Read this more in-depth in the morning","text":"Reminder to self: Read this more in-depth in the 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to the moon and beyond","listText":"Flying to the moon and beyond","text":"Flying to the moon and beyond","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380228904","repostId":"1132260998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381108160,"gmtCreate":1612940281350,"gmtModify":1703767175976,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Daddy elon has spoken <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>","listText":"Daddy elon has spoken <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>","text":"Daddy elon has spoken @Kiong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381108160","repostId":"1154979914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314843294,"gmtCreate":1612337980418,"gmtModify":1703760507298,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Elon coins","listText":"Elon coins","text":"Elon coins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314843294","repostId":"1163068052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163068052","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612335216,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163068052?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-03 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk's banter with Robinhood CEO triggers stampede for Clubhouse app<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)与Robinhood首席执行官的玩笑引发了Clubhouse应用程序的热潮</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163068052","media":"reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - A surprise chat between tech billionaire Elon Musk and Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on new a","content":"<p>(Reuters) - A surprise chat between tech billionaire Elon Musk and Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on new audio-based social network Clubhouse has helped propel the app to the top of the startup charts and sparked a scramble for invitations to the exclusive service.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)和Robinhood首席执行官弗拉德·特涅夫(Vlad Tenev)在新的基于音频的社交网络Clubhouse上进行了一次令人惊讶的聊天，帮助该应用程序登上了初创公司排行榜的榜首，并引发了对独家服务邀请的争夺。</blockquote></p><p> The interaction between the two entrepreneurs on the platform on Sunday came amid intense interest in news around Robinhood, the online brokerage caught up in a wild stockmarket battle between retail investors and big Wall Street funds.</p><p><blockquote>周日，两位企业家在该平台上的互动正值人们对Robinhood的新闻产生浓厚兴趣之际，这家在线经纪公司陷入了散户投资者和华尔街大型基金之间的激烈股市之战。</blockquote></p><p> Demand for invitations to the less-than-a-year-old service -- members get to invite a limited number of friends during its pre-launch period -- is so hot, a market for them has grown on platforms like Reddit, eBay, and Craigslist.</p><p><blockquote>这项推出不到一年的服务——会员在推出前可以邀请有限数量的朋友——对邀请的需求如此之大，以至于在Reddit、eBay和Craigslist等平台上，他们的市场已经增长。</blockquote></p><p> In China, invitations are being sold on Alibaba’s second-hand market place Idle Fish, even though Clubhouse isn’t available in Apple’s app store in that country.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，邀请函正在阿里巴巴-SW的二手市场Idle Fish上出售，尽管苹果在中国的应用商店中没有Clubhouse。</blockquote></p><p> In Japan investors, tech workers and the media have swarmed the service.</p><p><blockquote>在日本，投资者、科技工作者和媒体纷纷涌向这项服务。</blockquote></p><p> As of Tuesday, data analytics firm Sensor Tower said there were about 3.6 million installs worldwide for the app--only available on Apple’s iPhone--with 1.1 million of them coming in the last six days.</p><p><blockquote>截至周二，数据分析公司Sensor Tower表示，该应用程序在全球范围内的安装量约为360万次（仅在苹果的iPhone上可用），其中110万次是在过去六天内安装的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were so eager for a piece of the action that at one point on Monday they pushed up shares in Clubhouse Media Group [CMGR.PK], a completely unrelated stock, by 117%.</p><p><blockquote>投资者如此渴望分一杯羹，以至于周一他们一度将完全不相关的Clubhouse Media Group[CMGR.PK]的股价推高了117%。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese tech firm Agora Inc, listed on Nasdaq, saw its shares jump 30% on media reports that it may be a technology partner to Clubhouse. Agora declined to comment while a Clubhouse spokeswoman declined to comment on questions about technology partners.</p><p><blockquote>在纳斯达克上市的中国科技公司Agora Inc，因媒体报道其可能成为Clubhouse的技术合作伙伴，其股价上涨30%。Agora拒绝置评，而Clubhouse发言人拒绝就有关技术合作伙伴的问题发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> The San Francisco-based company’s latest round of financing in Jan. 24 valued the company at $1 billion, a source familiar with the matter said. The funding was led by Andreessen Horowitz, a leading Silicon Valley venture capital firm.</p><p><blockquote>一位知情人士称，这家总部位于旧金山的公司1月24日的最新一轮融资对该公司的估值为10亿美元。这笔资金由硅谷领先的风险投资公司Andreessen Horowitz牵头。</blockquote></p><p> CLUBBY</p><p><blockquote>俱乐部</blockquote></p><p> Amid the buzz, Clubhouse has also drawn backlash from those who criticize the closed-door nature of chats like the one between Musk and Tenev.</p><p><blockquote>在一片喧嚣声中，Clubhouse也引起了那些批评马斯克和特涅夫之间聊天闭门性质的人的强烈反对。</blockquote></p><p> Jessica Lessin, editor-in-chief of tech news outlet The Information tweeted that Marc Andreessen, a founding partner of Andreessen Horowitz, which also backs Robinhood, had blocked many reporters from listening in on Musk’s talk.</p><p><blockquote>科技新闻媒体The Information的主编杰西卡·莱辛(Jessica Lessin)在推特上表示，安德森·霍洛维茨(Andreessen Horowitz)的创始合伙人马克·安德森(Marc Andreessen)也支持罗宾汉(Robinhood)，他阻止了许多记者监听马斯克的讲话。</blockquote></p><p> The chat between Musk and Tenev took place on a regular Clubhouse event called “The Good Time Show.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克和特涅夫之间的聊天发生在一场名为“美好时光秀”的常规俱乐部活动上。</blockquote></p><p> Andreessen Horowitz didn’t reply to Reuters’ request for comment on this issue.</p><p><blockquote>安德森·霍洛维茨没有回复路透社就此问题的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> However, Clubhouse CEO Paul Davidson told Bloomberg TV on Monday event hosts could choose who is allowed to listen, underscoring concerns about the clubby nature of the app.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Clubhouse首席执行官保罗·戴维森周一告诉彭博电视台，活动主持人可以选择谁可以收听，这突显了人们对该应用程序俱乐部性质的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Andreessen Horowitz separately said in a blog in January that it was launching new “media property,” adding to its already active podcasting and blogging activities.</p><p><blockquote>安德森·霍洛维茨(Andreessen Horowitz)在1月份的一篇博客中单独表示，它将推出新的“媒体资产”，增加其已经活跃的播客和博客活动。</blockquote></p><p> Clubhouse aspires to make the app widely available, and foresees business opportunities in subscriptions or tickets to events like the one Musk starred in.</p><p><blockquote>Clubhouse渴望让该应用程序广泛使用，并预见到订阅或马斯克主演的活动门票等业务机会。</blockquote></p><p> It will have to contend with moderating the kind of site abuses, from hate speech to harassment, that major social media platforms face. Clubhouse has been criticized over reports of harassment and hate speech in its rooms, some of which are private and some public.</p><p><blockquote>它将不得不应对主要社交媒体平台面临的从仇恨言论到骚扰的网站滥用行为。Clubhouse因其房间内存在骚扰和仇恨言论的报道而受到批评，其中一些房间是私人的，一些是公共的。</blockquote></p><p> A spokeswoman for the app said it has already banned some individual users from the platform for violating its rules but declined to share more details.</p><p><blockquote>该应用的一位发言人表示，它已经禁止一些违反规则的个人用户使用该平台，但拒绝透露更多细节。</blockquote></p><p> The company has said it does not allow racism, hate speech, sexism and abuse on the network, though it says it does allow “general rudeness.” It has said users who found clubs on the app will be able to set rules for their communities.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，不允许网络上出现种族主义、仇恨言论、性别歧视和虐待行为，但表示确实允许“普遍的粗鲁行为”。该公司表示，在该应用程序上找到俱乐部的用户将能够为他们的社区制定规则。</blockquote></p><p> The Clubhouse spokeswoman said it currently has about 10 staff. The company has said it is investing in tools that detect and prevent abuse as well as features for users to moderate.</p><p><blockquote>会所发言人表示，目前约有10名员工。该公司表示，它正在投资于检测和防止滥用的工具以及供用户调节的功能。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk's banter with Robinhood CEO triggers stampede for Clubhouse app<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)与Robinhood首席执行官的玩笑引发了Clubhouse应用程序的热潮</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk's banter with Robinhood CEO triggers stampede for Clubhouse app<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)与Robinhood首席执行官的玩笑引发了Clubhouse应用程序的热潮</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-03 14:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - A surprise chat between tech billionaire Elon Musk and Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on new audio-based social network Clubhouse has helped propel the app to the top of the startup charts and sparked a scramble for invitations to the exclusive service.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)和Robinhood首席执行官弗拉德·特涅夫(Vlad Tenev)在新的基于音频的社交网络Clubhouse上进行了一次令人惊讶的聊天，帮助该应用程序登上了初创公司排行榜的榜首，并引发了对独家服务邀请的争夺。</blockquote></p><p> The interaction between the two entrepreneurs on the platform on Sunday came amid intense interest in news around Robinhood, the online brokerage caught up in a wild stockmarket battle between retail investors and big Wall Street funds.</p><p><blockquote>周日，两位企业家在该平台上的互动正值人们对Robinhood的新闻产生浓厚兴趣之际，这家在线经纪公司陷入了散户投资者和华尔街大型基金之间的激烈股市之战。</blockquote></p><p> Demand for invitations to the less-than-a-year-old service -- members get to invite a limited number of friends during its pre-launch period -- is so hot, a market for them has grown on platforms like Reddit, eBay, and Craigslist.</p><p><blockquote>这项推出不到一年的服务——会员在推出前可以邀请有限数量的朋友——对邀请的需求如此之大，以至于在Reddit、eBay和Craigslist等平台上，他们的市场已经增长。</blockquote></p><p> In China, invitations are being sold on Alibaba’s second-hand market place Idle Fish, even though Clubhouse isn’t available in Apple’s app store in that country.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，邀请函正在阿里巴巴-SW的二手市场Idle Fish上出售，尽管苹果在中国的应用商店中没有Clubhouse。</blockquote></p><p> In Japan investors, tech workers and the media have swarmed the service.</p><p><blockquote>在日本，投资者、科技工作者和媒体纷纷涌向这项服务。</blockquote></p><p> As of Tuesday, data analytics firm Sensor Tower said there were about 3.6 million installs worldwide for the app--only available on Apple’s iPhone--with 1.1 million of them coming in the last six days.</p><p><blockquote>截至周二，数据分析公司Sensor Tower表示，该应用程序在全球范围内的安装量约为360万次（仅在苹果的iPhone上可用），其中110万次是在过去六天内安装的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were so eager for a piece of the action that at one point on Monday they pushed up shares in Clubhouse Media Group [CMGR.PK], a completely unrelated stock, by 117%.</p><p><blockquote>投资者如此渴望分一杯羹，以至于周一他们一度将完全不相关的Clubhouse Media Group[CMGR.PK]的股价推高了117%。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese tech firm Agora Inc, listed on Nasdaq, saw its shares jump 30% on media reports that it may be a technology partner to Clubhouse. Agora declined to comment while a Clubhouse spokeswoman declined to comment on questions about technology partners.</p><p><blockquote>在纳斯达克上市的中国科技公司Agora Inc，因媒体报道其可能成为Clubhouse的技术合作伙伴，其股价上涨30%。Agora拒绝置评，而Clubhouse发言人拒绝就有关技术合作伙伴的问题发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> The San Francisco-based company’s latest round of financing in Jan. 24 valued the company at $1 billion, a source familiar with the matter said. The funding was led by Andreessen Horowitz, a leading Silicon Valley venture capital firm.</p><p><blockquote>一位知情人士称，这家总部位于旧金山的公司1月24日的最新一轮融资对该公司的估值为10亿美元。这笔资金由硅谷领先的风险投资公司Andreessen Horowitz牵头。</blockquote></p><p> CLUBBY</p><p><blockquote>俱乐部</blockquote></p><p> Amid the buzz, Clubhouse has also drawn backlash from those who criticize the closed-door nature of chats like the one between Musk and Tenev.</p><p><blockquote>在一片喧嚣声中，Clubhouse也引起了那些批评马斯克和特涅夫之间聊天闭门性质的人的强烈反对。</blockquote></p><p> Jessica Lessin, editor-in-chief of tech news outlet The Information tweeted that Marc Andreessen, a founding partner of Andreessen Horowitz, which also backs Robinhood, had blocked many reporters from listening in on Musk’s talk.</p><p><blockquote>科技新闻媒体The Information的主编杰西卡·莱辛(Jessica Lessin)在推特上表示，安德森·霍洛维茨(Andreessen Horowitz)的创始合伙人马克·安德森(Marc Andreessen)也支持罗宾汉(Robinhood)，他阻止了许多记者监听马斯克的讲话。</blockquote></p><p> The chat between Musk and Tenev took place on a regular Clubhouse event called “The Good Time Show.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克和特涅夫之间的聊天发生在一场名为“美好时光秀”的常规俱乐部活动上。</blockquote></p><p> Andreessen Horowitz didn’t reply to Reuters’ request for comment on this issue.</p><p><blockquote>安德森·霍洛维茨没有回复路透社就此问题的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> However, Clubhouse CEO Paul Davidson told Bloomberg TV on Monday event hosts could choose who is allowed to listen, underscoring concerns about the clubby nature of the app.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Clubhouse首席执行官保罗·戴维森周一告诉彭博电视台，活动主持人可以选择谁可以收听，这突显了人们对该应用程序俱乐部性质的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Andreessen Horowitz separately said in a blog in January that it was launching new “media property,” adding to its already active podcasting and blogging activities.</p><p><blockquote>安德森·霍洛维茨(Andreessen Horowitz)在1月份的一篇博客中单独表示，它将推出新的“媒体资产”，增加其已经活跃的播客和博客活动。</blockquote></p><p> Clubhouse aspires to make the app widely available, and foresees business opportunities in subscriptions or tickets to events like the one Musk starred in.</p><p><blockquote>Clubhouse渴望让该应用程序广泛使用，并预见到订阅或马斯克主演的活动门票等业务机会。</blockquote></p><p> It will have to contend with moderating the kind of site abuses, from hate speech to harassment, that major social media platforms face. Clubhouse has been criticized over reports of harassment and hate speech in its rooms, some of which are private and some public.</p><p><blockquote>它将不得不应对主要社交媒体平台面临的从仇恨言论到骚扰的网站滥用行为。Clubhouse因其房间内存在骚扰和仇恨言论的报道而受到批评，其中一些房间是私人的，一些是公共的。</blockquote></p><p> A spokeswoman for the app said it has already banned some individual users from the platform for violating its rules but declined to share more details.</p><p><blockquote>该应用的一位发言人表示，它已经禁止一些违反规则的个人用户使用该平台，但拒绝透露更多细节。</blockquote></p><p> The company has said it does not allow racism, hate speech, sexism and abuse on the network, though it says it does allow “general rudeness.” It has said users who found clubs on the app will be able to set rules for their communities.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，不允许网络上出现种族主义、仇恨言论、性别歧视和虐待行为，但表示确实允许“普遍的粗鲁行为”。该公司表示，在该应用程序上找到俱乐部的用户将能够为他们的社区制定规则。</blockquote></p><p> The Clubhouse spokeswoman said it currently has about 10 staff. The company has said it is investing in tools that detect and prevent abuse as well as features for users to moderate.</p><p><blockquote>会所发言人表示，目前约有10名员工。该公司表示，它正在投资于检测和防止滥用的工具以及供用户调节的功能。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-social-media-clubhouse/elon-musks-banter-with-robinhood-ceo-triggers-stampede-for-clubhouse-app-idUSKBN2A30R6?il=0\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-social-media-clubhouse/elon-musks-banter-with-robinhood-ceo-triggers-stampede-for-clubhouse-app-idUSKBN2A30R6?il=0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163068052","content_text":"(Reuters) - A surprise chat between tech billionaire Elon Musk and Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on new audio-based social network Clubhouse has helped propel the app to the top of the startup charts and sparked a scramble for invitations to the exclusive service.\nThe interaction between the two entrepreneurs on the platform on Sunday came amid intense interest in news around Robinhood, the online brokerage caught up in a wild stockmarket battle between retail investors and big Wall Street funds.\nDemand for invitations to the less-than-a-year-old service -- members get to invite a limited number of friends during its pre-launch period -- is so hot, a market for them has grown on platforms like Reddit, eBay, and Craigslist.\nIn China, invitations are being sold on Alibaba’s second-hand market place Idle Fish, even though Clubhouse isn’t available in Apple’s app store in that country.\nIn Japan investors, tech workers and the media have swarmed the service.\nAs of Tuesday, data analytics firm Sensor Tower said there were about 3.6 million installs worldwide for the app--only available on Apple’s iPhone--with 1.1 million of them coming in the last six days.\nInvestors were so eager for a piece of the action that at one point on Monday they pushed up shares in Clubhouse Media Group [CMGR.PK], a completely unrelated stock, by 117%.\nChinese tech firm Agora Inc, listed on Nasdaq, saw its shares jump 30% on media reports that it may be a technology partner to Clubhouse. Agora declined to comment while a Clubhouse spokeswoman declined to comment on questions about technology partners.\nThe San Francisco-based company’s latest round of financing in Jan. 24 valued the company at $1 billion, a source familiar with the matter said. The funding was led by Andreessen Horowitz, a leading Silicon Valley venture capital firm.\nCLUBBY\nAmid the buzz, Clubhouse has also drawn backlash from those who criticize the closed-door nature of chats like the one between Musk and Tenev.\nJessica Lessin, editor-in-chief of tech news outlet The Information tweeted that Marc Andreessen, a founding partner of Andreessen Horowitz, which also backs Robinhood, had blocked many reporters from listening in on Musk’s talk.\nThe chat between Musk and Tenev took place on a regular Clubhouse event called “The Good Time Show.”\nAndreessen Horowitz didn’t reply to Reuters’ request for comment on this issue.\nHowever, Clubhouse CEO Paul Davidson told Bloomberg TV on Monday event hosts could choose who is allowed to listen, underscoring concerns about the clubby nature of the app.\nAndreessen Horowitz separately said in a blog in January that it was launching new “media property,” adding to its already active podcasting and blogging activities.\nClubhouse aspires to make the app widely available, and foresees business opportunities in subscriptions or tickets to events like the one Musk starred in.\nIt will have to contend with moderating the kind of site abuses, from hate speech to harassment, that major social media platforms face. Clubhouse has been criticized over reports of harassment and hate speech in its rooms, some of which are private and some public.\nA spokeswoman for the app said it has already banned some individual users from the platform for violating its rules but declined to share more details.\nThe company has said it does not allow racism, hate speech, sexism and abuse on the network, though it says it does allow “general rudeness.” It has said users who found clubs on the app will be able to set rules for their communities.\nThe Clubhouse spokeswoman said it currently has about 10 staff. The company has said it is investing in tools that detect and prevent abuse as well as features for users to moderate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360198272,"gmtCreate":1613866079396,"gmtModify":1634552042999,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>The game has stopped?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>The game has stopped?","text":"$GameStop(GME)$The game has stopped?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860917ba3942e8ab5ff135f8ef85ccc4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360198272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384246059,"gmtCreate":1613658890371,"gmtModify":1634552744858,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Profits are halved and they resumed dividends payout? Why though","listText":"Profits are halved and they resumed dividends payout? Why though","text":"Profits are halved and they resumed dividends payout? Why though","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384246059","repostId":"2112866301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386382071,"gmtCreate":1613137173393,"gmtModify":1634554385952,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting..","listText":"Interesting..","text":"Interesting..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386382071","repostId":"2110204192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389131266,"gmtCreate":1612712950155,"gmtModify":1703764418823,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"虎虎生风","listText":"虎虎生风","text":"虎虎生风","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389131266","repostId":"2109727286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389902860,"gmtCreate":1612657331250,"gmtModify":1703764119361,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Amitabha","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Amitabha","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Amitabha","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b68a2a39e6e72a3de0b1ccaffdbedf15","width":"828","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389902860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382834448,"gmtCreate":1613406760884,"gmtModify":1634553744415,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh? This is interesting","listText":"Oh? This is interesting","text":"Oh? This is interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382834448","repostId":"2110549049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380793539,"gmtCreate":1612584519021,"gmtModify":1703763848796,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>A day, keeps the doctor away","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>A day, keeps the doctor away","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$A day, keeps the doctor away","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24488f5ab2d97c9984f407710782a12f","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380793539","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385722712,"gmtCreate":1613577272136,"gmtModify":1634553067941,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What about visa","listText":"What about visa","text":"What about visa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385722712","repostId":"1109567373","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382071581,"gmtCreate":1613320232643,"gmtModify":1634553944913,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I guess covid affects cooking now...","listText":"I guess covid affects cooking now...","text":"I guess covid affects cooking now...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382071581","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380376553,"gmtCreate":1612519342972,"gmtModify":1703763008372,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>i guess we need to go mars","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>i guess we need to go mars","text":"@Kiongi guess we need to go mars","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380376553","repostId":"1180970570","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180970570","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612501989,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180970570?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-05 13:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The dark side of the GameStop bubble: Driving stock prices to the moon can hurt America<blockquote>游戏驿站泡沫的阴暗面：将股价推上月球会伤害美国</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180970570","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Shares of GameStop and other companies or assets that shot upin value in recent weeks are now droppi","content":"<p>Shares of GameStop&nbsp;and other companies or&nbsp;assets that shot upin value in recent weeks are now&nbsp;dropping&nbsp;like stones. While I feel sorry for the many investors who will likely lose a lot of money, the stocks’ return to Earth is actually a good thing — if you want to avoid financial meltdown to the long list of crises the U.S. is facing.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和其他最近几周价值飙升的公司或资产的股价现在像石头一样下跌。虽然我为许多可能会损失很多钱的投资者感到难过，但如果你想避免金融崩溃成为美国面临的一长串危机，股票回归地球实际上是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>The reason has to do with what financial markets are — and what they are not — as well as what happens when prices of stocks and other securities become untethered from the fundamental value of the assets they’re meant to represent.</p><p><blockquote>原因与金融市场是什么以及它们不是什么有关，以及当股票和其他证券的价格脱离它们所代表的资产的基本价值时会发生什么有关。</blockquote></p><p>As a finance professor who does&nbsp;research on how markets respond to new information, I believe it is important to maintain a close link between security prices and fundamentals. When that stops happening, a market collapse may be not far behind.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名研究市场如何对新信息做出反应的金融学教授，我认为保持证券价格和基本面之间的密切联系非常重要。当这种情况停止发生时，市场崩溃可能就在不远处。</blockquote></p><p>Capital markets aren’t casinos</p><p><blockquote>资本市场不是赌场</blockquote></p><p>Some have portrayed&nbsp;GameStopGME,-42.11%as a David vs. Goliath story. According to that narrative, the big guys on Wall Street have been getting rich gambling on the stock marketSPX,+1.09%for years. What’s the problem when the little guy gets a chance?</p><p><blockquote>有些人将GameStopGME(-42.11%)描绘成大卫与歌利亚的故事。根据这种说法，华尔街的大佬们多年来一直在股市SPX上赌博致富，+1.09%。小家伙一有机会有什么问题？</blockquote></p><p>The first thing to keep in mind is that markets aren’t a big casino,&nbsp;as some seem to believe. Their core purpose is to efficiently connect investors with companies and other organizations that will make the most productive use of their cash.</p><p><blockquote>首先要记住的是，市场并不像一些人认为的那样是一个大赌场。他们的核心目的是有效地将投资者与公司和其他组织联系起来，最有效地利用他们的现金。</blockquote></p><p>Accurate market prices, meant to reflect a company’s expected profits and overall risk level, provide an important signal to investors whether they should hand over their money and what they should get in return. Companies like AppleAAPL,+2.58%and AmazonAMZN,+0.56%simply would not exist as we know them today without&nbsp;access to capital markets.</p><p><blockquote>准确的市场价格旨在反映公司的预期利润和整体风险水平，为投资者提供了一个重要信号，即他们是否应该交出资金以及应该获得什么回报。如果没有资本市场，像AppleAAPL(+2.58%)和AmazonAMZN(+0.56%)这样的公司就不会像我们今天所知的那样存在。</blockquote></p><p>The more jaundiced view of markets focuses on episodes when&nbsp;markets seemingly go crazy&nbsp;and on the&nbsp;speculative gambling behavior of some traders, such as&nbsp;hedge funds. The GameStop saga feeds into this storyline.</p><p><blockquote>对市场更有偏见的看法集中在市场似乎变得疯狂的时候，以及一些交易者（如对冲基金）的投机赌博行为。游戏驿站传奇融入了这个故事情节。</blockquote></p><p>But GameStop also illustrates what happens when stock prices don’t reflect reality.</p><p><blockquote>但游戏驿站也说明了当股价不能反映现实时会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p>The GameStop bubble</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站泡沫</blockquote></p><p>GameStop fundamentals&nbsp;are, to put it mildly, lackluster.</p><p><blockquote>委婉地说，游戏驿站的基本面黯淡无光。</blockquote></p><p>The company is a brick-and-mortar chain of video game stores. Most video game sales now&nbsp;take place as digital downloads. GameStop&nbsp;has been slow&nbsp;to adapt to this new reality. Its revenue peaked in&nbsp;2012 at US$9.55 billion&nbsp;and had dropped by a third&nbsp;as of 2019. It hasn’t earned a profit since 2017. Put simply, it is a money-losing company in a competitive and quickly changing industry.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是一家实体视频游戏连锁店。现在大多数视频游戏销售都是以数字下载的形式进行的。游戏驿站在适应这一新现实方面进展缓慢。其收入在2012年达到95.5亿美元的峰值，截至2019年下降了三分之一。自2017年以来，它就没有盈利过。简单来说，就是在竞争激烈、瞬息万变的行业中，它是一家亏损的公司。</blockquote></p><p>The recent speculative frenzy, however, increased the GameStop stock price&nbsp;from under $20 in early January to as high as $483&nbsp;in a little over two weeks,&nbsp;driven by retail investors on Reddit&nbsp;who coordinated their buying to harm hedge funds,&nbsp;costing the professionals billions of dollars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近的投机狂潮使游戏驿站股价在两周多一点的时间内从1月初的不到20美元上涨至483美元，这是由Reddit上的散户投资者推动的，他们协调购买以损害对冲基金，使专业人士损失了数十亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>It is&nbsp;clearly a speculative price bubble&nbsp;and has some characteristics of a Ponzi scheme. Many small investors who “get on the train” late and buy at the inflated prices — especially&nbsp;those attracted by the extreme price moves&nbsp;and media coverage — will be left holding the bag.</p><p><blockquote>这显然是一个投机性的价格泡沫，具有庞氏骗局的一些特征。许多晚“上车”并以虚高的价格买入的小投资者——尤其是那些被极端价格走势和媒体报道吸引的小投资者——将背黑锅。</blockquote></p><p>And sooner or later, the stock price will likely come back to Earth to a level that can be supported by the fundamentals of the company. Before midday on Feb. 4, shares&nbsp;were trading near $70for the first time since Jan. 25.</p><p><blockquote>股价迟早会回到能够得到公司基本面支撑的水平。2月4日中午之前，股价自1月25日以来首次接近70美元。</blockquote></p><p>The problems begin when that doesn’t happen until too late.</p><p><blockquote>当为时已晚时，问题就开始了。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles are made to pop</p><p><blockquote>泡泡被制造出来</blockquote></p><p>Financial markets are made up of people. People are imperfect, and so are markets. This means market prices are not always “right” — and it’s often hard to know what the “right” price is.</p><p><blockquote>金融市场是由人组成的。人是不完美的，市场也是。这意味着市场价格并不总是“正确”的——而且通常很难知道什么是“正确”的价格。</blockquote></p><p>That is true when it comes to the price bubbles in individual stocks like GameStop. But it’s also true on a much bigger scale, when it comes to a market as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>当涉及到游戏驿站等个股的价格泡沫时，情况确实如此。但当涉及到整个市场时，在更大的范围内也是如此。</blockquote></p><p>Price bubbles and crashes are good for neither Wall Street nor Main Street. When the dot-com bubble popped in 2000 —&nbsp;after prices of dozens of tech stocks soared exponentially in the late 1990s&nbsp;— an&nbsp;economic recession&nbsp;followed soon after. The bursting of a&nbsp;housing bubble in 2008&nbsp;triggered a global financial crisis and the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>价格泡沫和崩盘对华尔街和大街都没有好处。当2000年互联网泡沫破裂时——在20世纪90年代末数十只科技股的价格呈指数级飙升——经济衰退随之而来。2008年房地产泡沫的破裂引发了全球金融危机和大衰退。</blockquote></p><p>Too much momentum</p><p><blockquote>动力太大</blockquote></p><p>So markets fail sometimes, and we need sensible regulation and enforcement to make such failures less likely.</p><p><blockquote>因此，市场有时会失灵，我们需要明智的监管和执法来减少这种失灵的可能性。</blockquote></p><p>Taken in isolation, the GameStop craze is unlikely to trigger a disruption to the overall stock market, especially if its price continues to fall more in line with the company’s fundamental value. Unfortunately, this was not an isolated case. Nor was GameStop the first sign of problems.</p><p><blockquote>孤立地看，游戏驿站热潮不太可能引发整体股市的混乱，特别是如果其价格继续下跌，更符合公司的基本价值。不幸的是，这不是一个孤立的案例。游戏驿站也不是问题的第一个迹象。</blockquote></p><p>In recent days, Reddit users have also driven up the&nbsp;prices of silverSI00,0.61%&nbsp;and&nbsp;companies&nbsp;such as BlackBerryBB,+1.25%and movie theater giant AMC EntertainmentAMC,-20.96%.Popular trading apps like Robinhood&nbsp;have made trading easy, fun&nbsp;and basically free.</p><p><blockquote>最近几天，Reddit用户还推高了silverSI00(0.61%)以及BlackBerryBB(+1.25%)和电影院巨头AMC EntertainmentAMC(-20.96%)等公司的价格。Robinhood等流行的交易应用程序使交易变得轻松、有趣且基本上免费。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The share price of TeslaTSLA,-0.55%,for example,&nbsp;skyrocketed 720% last year, in large part when investors bought the stock because it was already rising. This is called&nbsp;momentum investing, a trading strategy in which investors buy securities because they are going up — selling them only when they think the price has peaked.</p><p><blockquote>例如，特斯拉TSLA(-0.55%)的股价去年飙升了720%，很大程度上是因为投资者买入该股是因为该股已经在上涨。这被称为动量投资，这是一种交易策略，投资者购买证券是因为他们正在上涨，只有当他们认为价格已经见顶时才出售。</blockquote></p><p>If this continues, it will likely lead to more financial bubbles and crashes that could make it harder for companies to raise capital, posing a threat to the&nbsp;already limping U.S. economic recovery. Even if the worst doesn’t happen, large price movements and allegations of price manipulation&nbsp;could hurt public confidence&nbsp;in financial markets, which would make people more reluctant to invest in retirement and other programs.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种情况持续下去，可能会导致更多的金融泡沫和崩溃，使企业更难筹集资金，对本已步履蹒跚的美国经济复苏构成威胁。即使最坏的情况没有发生，价格大幅波动和价格操纵指控也可能损害公众对金融市场的信心，这将使人们更不愿意投资于退休和其他项目。</blockquote></p><p>Warren Buffett&nbsp;once said&nbsp;about stock market behavior: “The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.”</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经谈到股市行为时说过：“灯可以随时从绿色变成红色，而不会在黄色时暂停。”</blockquote></p><p>What he meant was that markets can turn on a dime and plunge. He saw these moments as opportunities to find deals in the market, but for most people they result in panic, heavy losses and economic consequences like mass unemployment — as we saw in 1929, 2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，市场可能会突然转向并暴跌。他认为这些时刻是在市场上寻找交易的机会，但对大多数人来说，它们会导致恐慌、重大损失和大规模失业等经济后果——就像我们在1929年、2000年和2008年看到的那样。</blockquote></p><p>There’s no particular reason it won’t happen again.</p><p><blockquote>没有什么特别的理由不会再发生。</blockquote></p><p><i>Alexander Kurov is a professor of finance and holds the Fred T. Tattersall Research Chair in Finance at West Virginia University In Morgantown. This was first published byThe Conversation— “Wall Street isn’t just a casino where traders can bet on GameStop and other stocks – it’s essential to keeping capitalism from&nbsp;crashing“.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚历山大·库罗夫是摩根敦西弗吉尼亚大学金融学教授，并担任弗雷德·T·塔特索尔金融学研究主席。这篇文章最初由The Conversation发表——“华尔街不仅仅是交易者可以押注游戏驿站和其他股票的赌场——它对于防止资本主义崩溃至关重要”。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The dark side of the GameStop bubble: Driving stock prices to the moon can hurt America<blockquote>游戏驿站泡沫的阴暗面：将股价推上月球会伤害美国</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe dark side of the GameStop bubble: Driving stock prices to the moon can hurt America<blockquote>游戏驿站泡沫的阴暗面：将股价推上月球会伤害美国</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-05 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of GameStop&nbsp;and other companies or&nbsp;assets that shot upin value in recent weeks are now&nbsp;dropping&nbsp;like stones. While I feel sorry for the many investors who will likely lose a lot of money, the stocks’ return to Earth is actually a good thing — if you want to avoid financial meltdown to the long list of crises the U.S. is facing.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和其他最近几周价值飙升的公司或资产的股价现在像石头一样下跌。虽然我为许多可能会损失很多钱的投资者感到难过，但如果你想避免金融崩溃成为美国面临的一长串危机，股票回归地球实际上是一件好事。</blockquote></p><p>The reason has to do with what financial markets are — and what they are not — as well as what happens when prices of stocks and other securities become untethered from the fundamental value of the assets they’re meant to represent.</p><p><blockquote>原因与金融市场是什么以及它们不是什么有关，以及当股票和其他证券的价格脱离它们所代表的资产的基本价值时会发生什么有关。</blockquote></p><p>As a finance professor who does&nbsp;research on how markets respond to new information, I believe it is important to maintain a close link between security prices and fundamentals. When that stops happening, a market collapse may be not far behind.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名研究市场如何对新信息做出反应的金融学教授，我认为保持证券价格和基本面之间的密切联系非常重要。当这种情况停止发生时，市场崩溃可能就在不远处。</blockquote></p><p>Capital markets aren’t casinos</p><p><blockquote>资本市场不是赌场</blockquote></p><p>Some have portrayed&nbsp;GameStopGME,-42.11%as a David vs. Goliath story. According to that narrative, the big guys on Wall Street have been getting rich gambling on the stock marketSPX,+1.09%for years. What’s the problem when the little guy gets a chance?</p><p><blockquote>有些人将GameStopGME(-42.11%)描绘成大卫与歌利亚的故事。根据这种说法，华尔街的大佬们多年来一直在股市SPX上赌博致富，+1.09%。小家伙一有机会有什么问题？</blockquote></p><p>The first thing to keep in mind is that markets aren’t a big casino,&nbsp;as some seem to believe. Their core purpose is to efficiently connect investors with companies and other organizations that will make the most productive use of their cash.</p><p><blockquote>首先要记住的是，市场并不像一些人认为的那样是一个大赌场。他们的核心目的是有效地将投资者与公司和其他组织联系起来，最有效地利用他们的现金。</blockquote></p><p>Accurate market prices, meant to reflect a company’s expected profits and overall risk level, provide an important signal to investors whether they should hand over their money and what they should get in return. Companies like AppleAAPL,+2.58%and AmazonAMZN,+0.56%simply would not exist as we know them today without&nbsp;access to capital markets.</p><p><blockquote>准确的市场价格旨在反映公司的预期利润和整体风险水平，为投资者提供了一个重要信号，即他们是否应该交出资金以及应该获得什么回报。如果没有资本市场，像AppleAAPL(+2.58%)和AmazonAMZN(+0.56%)这样的公司就不会像我们今天所知的那样存在。</blockquote></p><p>The more jaundiced view of markets focuses on episodes when&nbsp;markets seemingly go crazy&nbsp;and on the&nbsp;speculative gambling behavior of some traders, such as&nbsp;hedge funds. The GameStop saga feeds into this storyline.</p><p><blockquote>对市场更有偏见的看法集中在市场似乎变得疯狂的时候，以及一些交易者（如对冲基金）的投机赌博行为。游戏驿站传奇融入了这个故事情节。</blockquote></p><p>But GameStop also illustrates what happens when stock prices don’t reflect reality.</p><p><blockquote>但游戏驿站也说明了当股价不能反映现实时会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p>The GameStop bubble</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站泡沫</blockquote></p><p>GameStop fundamentals&nbsp;are, to put it mildly, lackluster.</p><p><blockquote>委婉地说，游戏驿站的基本面黯淡无光。</blockquote></p><p>The company is a brick-and-mortar chain of video game stores. Most video game sales now&nbsp;take place as digital downloads. GameStop&nbsp;has been slow&nbsp;to adapt to this new reality. Its revenue peaked in&nbsp;2012 at US$9.55 billion&nbsp;and had dropped by a third&nbsp;as of 2019. It hasn’t earned a profit since 2017. Put simply, it is a money-losing company in a competitive and quickly changing industry.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是一家实体视频游戏连锁店。现在大多数视频游戏销售都是以数字下载的形式进行的。游戏驿站在适应这一新现实方面进展缓慢。其收入在2012年达到95.5亿美元的峰值，截至2019年下降了三分之一。自2017年以来，它就没有盈利过。简单来说，就是在竞争激烈、瞬息万变的行业中，它是一家亏损的公司。</blockquote></p><p>The recent speculative frenzy, however, increased the GameStop stock price&nbsp;from under $20 in early January to as high as $483&nbsp;in a little over two weeks,&nbsp;driven by retail investors on Reddit&nbsp;who coordinated their buying to harm hedge funds,&nbsp;costing the professionals billions of dollars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近的投机狂潮使游戏驿站股价在两周多一点的时间内从1月初的不到20美元上涨至483美元，这是由Reddit上的散户投资者推动的，他们协调购买以损害对冲基金，使专业人士损失了数十亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>It is&nbsp;clearly a speculative price bubble&nbsp;and has some characteristics of a Ponzi scheme. Many small investors who “get on the train” late and buy at the inflated prices — especially&nbsp;those attracted by the extreme price moves&nbsp;and media coverage — will be left holding the bag.</p><p><blockquote>这显然是一个投机性的价格泡沫，具有庞氏骗局的一些特征。许多晚“上车”并以虚高的价格买入的小投资者——尤其是那些被极端价格走势和媒体报道吸引的小投资者——将背黑锅。</blockquote></p><p>And sooner or later, the stock price will likely come back to Earth to a level that can be supported by the fundamentals of the company. Before midday on Feb. 4, shares&nbsp;were trading near $70for the first time since Jan. 25.</p><p><blockquote>股价迟早会回到能够得到公司基本面支撑的水平。2月4日中午之前，股价自1月25日以来首次接近70美元。</blockquote></p><p>The problems begin when that doesn’t happen until too late.</p><p><blockquote>当为时已晚时，问题就开始了。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles are made to pop</p><p><blockquote>泡泡被制造出来</blockquote></p><p>Financial markets are made up of people. People are imperfect, and so are markets. This means market prices are not always “right” — and it’s often hard to know what the “right” price is.</p><p><blockquote>金融市场是由人组成的。人是不完美的，市场也是。这意味着市场价格并不总是“正确”的——而且通常很难知道什么是“正确”的价格。</blockquote></p><p>That is true when it comes to the price bubbles in individual stocks like GameStop. But it’s also true on a much bigger scale, when it comes to a market as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>当涉及到游戏驿站等个股的价格泡沫时，情况确实如此。但当涉及到整个市场时，在更大的范围内也是如此。</blockquote></p><p>Price bubbles and crashes are good for neither Wall Street nor Main Street. When the dot-com bubble popped in 2000 —&nbsp;after prices of dozens of tech stocks soared exponentially in the late 1990s&nbsp;— an&nbsp;economic recession&nbsp;followed soon after. The bursting of a&nbsp;housing bubble in 2008&nbsp;triggered a global financial crisis and the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>价格泡沫和崩盘对华尔街和大街都没有好处。当2000年互联网泡沫破裂时——在20世纪90年代末数十只科技股的价格呈指数级飙升——经济衰退随之而来。2008年房地产泡沫的破裂引发了全球金融危机和大衰退。</blockquote></p><p>Too much momentum</p><p><blockquote>动力太大</blockquote></p><p>So markets fail sometimes, and we need sensible regulation and enforcement to make such failures less likely.</p><p><blockquote>因此，市场有时会失灵，我们需要明智的监管和执法来减少这种失灵的可能性。</blockquote></p><p>Taken in isolation, the GameStop craze is unlikely to trigger a disruption to the overall stock market, especially if its price continues to fall more in line with the company’s fundamental value. Unfortunately, this was not an isolated case. Nor was GameStop the first sign of problems.</p><p><blockquote>孤立地看，游戏驿站热潮不太可能引发整体股市的混乱，特别是如果其价格继续下跌，更符合公司的基本价值。不幸的是，这不是一个孤立的案例。游戏驿站也不是问题的第一个迹象。</blockquote></p><p>In recent days, Reddit users have also driven up the&nbsp;prices of silverSI00,0.61%&nbsp;and&nbsp;companies&nbsp;such as BlackBerryBB,+1.25%and movie theater giant AMC EntertainmentAMC,-20.96%.Popular trading apps like Robinhood&nbsp;have made trading easy, fun&nbsp;and basically free.</p><p><blockquote>最近几天，Reddit用户还推高了silverSI00(0.61%)以及BlackBerryBB(+1.25%)和电影院巨头AMC EntertainmentAMC(-20.96%)等公司的价格。Robinhood等流行的交易应用程序使交易变得轻松、有趣且基本上免费。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The share price of TeslaTSLA,-0.55%,for example,&nbsp;skyrocketed 720% last year, in large part when investors bought the stock because it was already rising. This is called&nbsp;momentum investing, a trading strategy in which investors buy securities because they are going up — selling them only when they think the price has peaked.</p><p><blockquote>例如，特斯拉TSLA(-0.55%)的股价去年飙升了720%，很大程度上是因为投资者买入该股是因为该股已经在上涨。这被称为动量投资，这是一种交易策略，投资者购买证券是因为他们正在上涨，只有当他们认为价格已经见顶时才出售。</blockquote></p><p>If this continues, it will likely lead to more financial bubbles and crashes that could make it harder for companies to raise capital, posing a threat to the&nbsp;already limping U.S. economic recovery. Even if the worst doesn’t happen, large price movements and allegations of price manipulation&nbsp;could hurt public confidence&nbsp;in financial markets, which would make people more reluctant to invest in retirement and other programs.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种情况持续下去，可能会导致更多的金融泡沫和崩溃，使企业更难筹集资金，对本已步履蹒跚的美国经济复苏构成威胁。即使最坏的情况没有发生，价格大幅波动和价格操纵指控也可能损害公众对金融市场的信心，这将使人们更不愿意投资于退休和其他项目。</blockquote></p><p>Warren Buffett&nbsp;once said&nbsp;about stock market behavior: “The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.”</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经谈到股市行为时说过：“灯可以随时从绿色变成红色，而不会在黄色时暂停。”</blockquote></p><p>What he meant was that markets can turn on a dime and plunge. He saw these moments as opportunities to find deals in the market, but for most people they result in panic, heavy losses and economic consequences like mass unemployment — as we saw in 1929, 2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，市场可能会突然转向并暴跌。他认为这些时刻是在市场上寻找交易的机会，但对大多数人来说，它们会导致恐慌、重大损失和大规模失业等经济后果——就像我们在1929年、2000年和2008年看到的那样。</blockquote></p><p>There’s no particular reason it won’t happen again.</p><p><blockquote>没有什么特别的理由不会再发生。</blockquote></p><p><i>Alexander Kurov is a professor of finance and holds the Fred T. Tattersall Research Chair in Finance at West Virginia University In Morgantown. This was first published byThe Conversation— “Wall Street isn’t just a casino where traders can bet on GameStop and other stocks – it’s essential to keeping capitalism from&nbsp;crashing“.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚历山大·库罗夫是摩根敦西弗吉尼亚大学金融学教授，并担任弗雷德·T·塔特索尔金融学研究主席。这篇文章最初由The Conversation发表——“华尔街不仅仅是交易者可以押注游戏驿站和其他股票的赌场——它对于防止资本主义崩溃至关重要”。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dark-side-of-the-gamestop-bubble-driving-stock-prices-to-the-moon-can-hurt-america-11612457839?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72bab52a7d49e9d26088350ab4826c1","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dark-side-of-the-gamestop-bubble-driving-stock-prices-to-the-moon-can-hurt-america-11612457839?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180970570","content_text":"Shares of GameStop and other companies or assets that shot upin value in recent weeks are now dropping like stones. While I feel sorry for the many investors who will likely lose a lot of money, the stocks’ return to Earth is actually a good thing — if you want to avoid financial meltdown to the long list of crises the U.S. is facing.The reason has to do with what financial markets are — and what they are not — as well as what happens when prices of stocks and other securities become untethered from the fundamental value of the assets they’re meant to represent.As a finance professor who does research on how markets respond to new information, I believe it is important to maintain a close link between security prices and fundamentals. When that stops happening, a market collapse may be not far behind.Capital markets aren’t casinosSome have portrayed GameStopGME,-42.11%as a David vs. Goliath story. According to that narrative, the big guys on Wall Street have been getting rich gambling on the stock marketSPX,+1.09%for years. What’s the problem when the little guy gets a chance?The first thing to keep in mind is that markets aren’t a big casino, as some seem to believe. Their core purpose is to efficiently connect investors with companies and other organizations that will make the most productive use of their cash.Accurate market prices, meant to reflect a company’s expected profits and overall risk level, provide an important signal to investors whether they should hand over their money and what they should get in return. Companies like AppleAAPL,+2.58%and AmazonAMZN,+0.56%simply would not exist as we know them today without access to capital markets.The more jaundiced view of markets focuses on episodes when markets seemingly go crazy and on the speculative gambling behavior of some traders, such as hedge funds. The GameStop saga feeds into this storyline.But GameStop also illustrates what happens when stock prices don’t reflect reality.The GameStop bubbleGameStop fundamentals are, to put it mildly, lackluster.The company is a brick-and-mortar chain of video game stores. Most video game sales now take place as digital downloads. GameStop has been slow to adapt to this new reality. Its revenue peaked in 2012 at US$9.55 billion and had dropped by a third as of 2019. It hasn’t earned a profit since 2017. Put simply, it is a money-losing company in a competitive and quickly changing industry.The recent speculative frenzy, however, increased the GameStop stock price from under $20 in early January to as high as $483 in a little over two weeks, driven by retail investors on Reddit who coordinated their buying to harm hedge funds, costing the professionals billions of dollars.It is clearly a speculative price bubble and has some characteristics of a Ponzi scheme. Many small investors who “get on the train” late and buy at the inflated prices — especially those attracted by the extreme price moves and media coverage — will be left holding the bag.And sooner or later, the stock price will likely come back to Earth to a level that can be supported by the fundamentals of the company. Before midday on Feb. 4, shares were trading near $70for the first time since Jan. 25.The problems begin when that doesn’t happen until too late.Bubbles are made to popFinancial markets are made up of people. People are imperfect, and so are markets. This means market prices are not always “right” — and it’s often hard to know what the “right” price is.That is true when it comes to the price bubbles in individual stocks like GameStop. But it’s also true on a much bigger scale, when it comes to a market as a whole.Price bubbles and crashes are good for neither Wall Street nor Main Street. When the dot-com bubble popped in 2000 — after prices of dozens of tech stocks soared exponentially in the late 1990s — an economic recession followed soon after. The bursting of a housing bubble in 2008 triggered a global financial crisis and the Great Recession.Too much momentumSo markets fail sometimes, and we need sensible regulation and enforcement to make such failures less likely.Taken in isolation, the GameStop craze is unlikely to trigger a disruption to the overall stock market, especially if its price continues to fall more in line with the company’s fundamental value. Unfortunately, this was not an isolated case. Nor was GameStop the first sign of problems.In recent days, Reddit users have also driven up the prices of silverSI00,0.61% and companies such as BlackBerryBB,+1.25%and movie theater giant AMC EntertainmentAMC,-20.96%.Popular trading apps like Robinhood have made trading easy, fun and basically free.The share price of TeslaTSLA,-0.55%,for example, skyrocketed 720% last year, in large part when investors bought the stock because it was already rising. This is called momentum investing, a trading strategy in which investors buy securities because they are going up — selling them only when they think the price has peaked.If this continues, it will likely lead to more financial bubbles and crashes that could make it harder for companies to raise capital, posing a threat to the already limping U.S. economic recovery. Even if the worst doesn’t happen, large price movements and allegations of price manipulation could hurt public confidence in financial markets, which would make people more reluctant to invest in retirement and other programs.Warren Buffett once said about stock market behavior: “The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.”What he meant was that markets can turn on a dime and plunge. He saw these moments as opportunities to find deals in the market, but for most people they result in panic, heavy losses and economic consequences like mass unemployment — as we saw in 1929, 2000 and 2008.There’s no particular reason it won’t happen again.Alexander Kurov is a professor of finance and holds the Fred T. Tattersall Research Chair in Finance at West Virginia University In Morgantown. This was first published byThe Conversation— “Wall Street isn’t just a casino where traders can bet on GameStop and other stocks – it’s essential to keeping capitalism from crashing“.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382078937,"gmtCreate":1613320320329,"gmtModify":1634553944669,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reminder to self: Read this more in-depth in the morning","listText":"Reminder to self: Read this more in-depth in the morning","text":"Reminder to self: Read this more in-depth in the 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beyond","listText":"Meet beyond","text":"Meet beyond","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364017487","repostId":"1119372981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366497123,"gmtCreate":1614533165662,"gmtModify":1703478050227,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go pfizer","listText":"Go pfizer","text":"Go pfizer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366497123","repostId":"2114371822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368962460,"gmtCreate":1614274158950,"gmtModify":1703475748513,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>buy opportunities&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>buy opportunities&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$buy opportunities","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d71d63a34fe5b4aba79cb7ed61350aa","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368962460","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363027921,"gmtCreate":1614085291163,"gmtModify":1634551242649,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why?","listText":"Why?","text":"Why?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363027921","repostId":"1178144401","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382737190,"gmtCreate":1613482890310,"gmtModify":1634553486885,"author":{"id":"3569296375283882","authorId":"3569296375283882","name":"虎虎是羊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c705cdb86291cf5420e68b5bff01abdd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569296375283882","authorIdStr":"3569296375283882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569113789905631\">@Seanc17</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>bullish again lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569113789905631\">@Seanc17</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569114286730144\">@Kiong</a>bullish again lol","text":"@Seanc17@Kiongbullish again lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382737190","repostId":"1108705396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108705396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613469786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108705396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 18:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108705396","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a doubl","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington&nbsp;and millions of families were about to&nbsp;lose crucial benefits.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>2020年底，饱受新冠疫情蹂躏的美国经济濒临陷入双底衰退。疫情正在加剧，僵局使华盛顿陷入瘫痪，数百万家庭即将失去重要福利。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward two months, and the&nbsp;economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>快进两个月，经济仍在挣扎，但对复苏的信心正在迅速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家正在迅速上调GDP和失业率预测，并将美联储能够提高最低利率的日期提前。高盛预测美国经济将以三十多年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the&nbsp;health crisis is easing&nbsp;and Uncle Sam is&nbsp;coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p><p><blockquote>重新燃起的乐观情绪是由两个主要因素推动的：健康危机正在缓解，山姆大叔正在提供惊人数量的援助——比几个月前似乎多了数千亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>根据穆迪分析公司的数据，继去年提供4万亿美元的救助后，华盛顿预计将在2021年再提供2万亿美元的赤字融资支持。这相当于美国年度GDP的四分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> \"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)告诉CNN Business：“这是大量的经济动力。”</blockquote></p><p> The turning point happened last month&nbsp;when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p><p><blockquote>转折点发生在上个月，当时民主党在佐治亚州的决选中以微弱优势控制了美国参议院。这为乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划开辟了道路，该计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、提高失业救济金以及向州和地方政府提供3500亿美元的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季迷你热潮”</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a&nbsp;forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote>在佐治亚州选举之前，赞迪认为美国经济要到2023年春季或夏季才能恢复充分就业（强劲的劳动力市场，失业率为4%）。现在，他预计这一成就将在明年春天实现，这与财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的预测相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近给客户的一份报告中写道，“超级财政政策”意味着美国经济增长快于其他国家的论点“似乎日益强烈”。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco呼吁美国出现“夏季小繁荣”，2021年GDP增长5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>同样，杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家表示，“爆炸性的收入增长（得益于财政刺激）可能会推动美国GDP今年增长6.4%，明年增长近5%。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞在最近的一份报告中告诉客户：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们的预测可能过于保守。”他指出，其观点仅纳入了拜登计划的1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，高盛本周早些时候将2021年GDP预期上调至6.8%，因为这家华尔街银行现在假设额外财政救助为1.5万亿美元，高于此前的1.1万亿美元。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，如果高盛的预测成真，这将是美国自1989年以来最快的年度GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的GDP预测远高于美联储的要求。去年12月，美联储预计2021年GDP增长仅为4.2%，并表示失业率要到2023年才会降至4%以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>避免了双底衰退</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对经济预测趋于保守。而且，至关重要的是，美联储的预测是在DC政治功能失调给美国经济蒙上阴影之际发布的。</blockquote></p><p> For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，共和党和民主党试图就延长计划失效的关键失业和驱逐福利以及向小企业提供更多可原谅贷款达成协议，但未能达成协议。然后当最终达成协议时，前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要炸毁它。</blockquote></p><p> At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一刻，特朗普将9000亿美元的救助计划签署成为法律，避免了经济灾难。</blockquote></p><p> \"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“如果没有这一点，我们将陷入双底衰退。”</blockquote></p><p> Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States&nbsp;added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p><p><blockquote>受疫情冲击，美国经济一瘸一拐地走到2020年底，今年开局缓慢。12月，雇主自春季以来首次裁员。美国1月份仅增加了49,000个就业岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数仍然高得惊人。仅上周就有793,000名美国人首次申请失业救济。就背景而言，这高于大衰退的最严重水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗拯救生命</b></blockquote></p><p> But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情仍有一线希望。尽管Covid死亡人数仍然高得难以想象，但住院人数和病例数已经下降。</blockquote></p><p> Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，冠状病毒疫苗的推出正在加速。据摩根士丹利称，在总共分发的6600万支疫苗中，约70%已经接种。</blockquote></p><p> And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday&nbsp;that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p><p><blockquote>美国顶级传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周四告诉NBC新闻，美国可能能够在夏季中期或结束前为大多数美国人接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些使得包括加利福尼亚、纽约和新泽西在内的州放松了对餐馆和其他小企业的健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants&nbsp;force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说疫情已经结束。事实上，一个风险是，新的Covid-19变种迫使美国各州和城市再次收紧健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>低薪工人仍然受到严重伤害</b></blockquote></p><p> Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，许多经济学家敦促华盛顿推进激进的财政刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> \"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“请把脚平放在油门上。”“政策制定101说，错误在于做得太多，而不是做得太少。”</blockquote></p><p> Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p><p><blockquote>做得太少可能会加剧美国的不平等问题。这是因为与之前的衰退相比，这次衰退对餐馆、儿童保育和酒店业等遭受重创行业的低收入工人造成了不成比例的伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据Opportunity Insights经济跟踪系统的数据，低工资工人（年收入低于27,000美元的人）的就业水平仍下降了20%以上。相比之下，年收入超过6万美元的人的就业水平高于危机前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的经济学家在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果收入和种族群体之间的充分就业情况不明显，拜登的团队就不太可能为实现充分就业而开香槟。”</blockquote></p><p> However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，前美联储官员、现任Quill Intelligence首席执行官丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth)担心，专注于提供收入，而不是投资基础设施和再培训工人，会让该国沉迷于刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯说：“经济将变成这个依赖患者，总是等待下一次注射。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Bring it on'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“来吧”</b></blockquote></p><p> Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington&nbsp;overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p><p><blockquote>包括前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的一些经济学家警告说，华盛顿注入过多支持可能会导致经济过热。</blockquote></p><p> \"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯表示：“未来几个月可能会出现相当大的通胀恐慌，这将考验债券市场和美联储。”</blockquote></p><p> And that in turn would spook the&nbsp;red-hot stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这反过来又会惊动炙手可热的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p><p><blockquote>美联储观察人士正在提前确定美联储何时能够结束紧急政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>高盛援引“通胀前景走强的迹象”，目前预计美联储将在2022年初开始“缩减”资产购买规模，并在2024年上半年加息。</blockquote></p><p> Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p><p><blockquote>赞迪并没有因为通货膨胀而失眠，主要是因为美国还远未实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一种被大大夸大的担忧，”他说。“来吧。十多年来，我们最大的问题一直是低通胀。更高的通胀将是一个高级问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 18:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington&nbsp;and millions of families were about to&nbsp;lose crucial benefits.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>2020年底，饱受新冠疫情蹂躏的美国经济濒临陷入双底衰退。疫情正在加剧，僵局使华盛顿陷入瘫痪，数百万家庭即将失去重要福利。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward two months, and the&nbsp;economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>快进两个月，经济仍在挣扎，但对复苏的信心正在迅速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家正在迅速上调GDP和失业率预测，并将美联储能够提高最低利率的日期提前。高盛预测美国经济将以三十多年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the&nbsp;health crisis is easing&nbsp;and Uncle Sam is&nbsp;coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p><p><blockquote>重新燃起的乐观情绪是由两个主要因素推动的：健康危机正在缓解，山姆大叔正在提供惊人数量的援助——比几个月前似乎多了数千亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>根据穆迪分析公司的数据，继去年提供4万亿美元的救助后，华盛顿预计将在2021年再提供2万亿美元的赤字融资支持。这相当于美国年度GDP的四分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> \"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)告诉CNN Business：“这是大量的经济动力。”</blockquote></p><p> The turning point happened last month&nbsp;when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p><p><blockquote>转折点发生在上个月，当时民主党在佐治亚州的决选中以微弱优势控制了美国参议院。这为乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划开辟了道路，该计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、提高失业救济金以及向州和地方政府提供3500亿美元的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季迷你热潮”</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a&nbsp;forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote>在佐治亚州选举之前，赞迪认为美国经济要到2023年春季或夏季才能恢复充分就业（强劲的劳动力市场，失业率为4%）。现在，他预计这一成就将在明年春天实现，这与财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的预测相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近给客户的一份报告中写道，“超级财政政策”意味着美国经济增长快于其他国家的论点“似乎日益强烈”。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco呼吁美国出现“夏季小繁荣”，2021年GDP增长5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>同样，杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家表示，“爆炸性的收入增长（得益于财政刺激）可能会推动美国GDP今年增长6.4%，明年增长近5%。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞在最近的一份报告中告诉客户：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们的预测可能过于保守。”他指出，其观点仅纳入了拜登计划的1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，高盛本周早些时候将2021年GDP预期上调至6.8%，因为这家华尔街银行现在假设额外财政救助为1.5万亿美元，高于此前的1.1万亿美元。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，如果高盛的预测成真，这将是美国自1989年以来最快的年度GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的GDP预测远高于美联储的要求。去年12月，美联储预计2021年GDP增长仅为4.2%，并表示失业率要到2023年才会降至4%以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>避免了双底衰退</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对经济预测趋于保守。而且，至关重要的是，美联储的预测是在DC政治功能失调给美国经济蒙上阴影之际发布的。</blockquote></p><p> For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，共和党和民主党试图就延长计划失效的关键失业和驱逐福利以及向小企业提供更多可原谅贷款达成协议，但未能达成协议。然后当最终达成协议时，前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要炸毁它。</blockquote></p><p> At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一刻，特朗普将9000亿美元的救助计划签署成为法律，避免了经济灾难。</blockquote></p><p> \"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“如果没有这一点，我们将陷入双底衰退。”</blockquote></p><p> Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States&nbsp;added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p><p><blockquote>受疫情冲击，美国经济一瘸一拐地走到2020年底，今年开局缓慢。12月，雇主自春季以来首次裁员。美国1月份仅增加了49,000个就业岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数仍然高得惊人。仅上周就有793,000名美国人首次申请失业救济。就背景而言，这高于大衰退的最严重水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗拯救生命</b></blockquote></p><p> But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情仍有一线希望。尽管Covid死亡人数仍然高得难以想象，但住院人数和病例数已经下降。</blockquote></p><p> Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，冠状病毒疫苗的推出正在加速。据摩根士丹利称，在总共分发的6600万支疫苗中，约70%已经接种。</blockquote></p><p> And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday&nbsp;that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p><p><blockquote>美国顶级传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周四告诉NBC新闻，美国可能能够在夏季中期或结束前为大多数美国人接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些使得包括加利福尼亚、纽约和新泽西在内的州放松了对餐馆和其他小企业的健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants&nbsp;force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说疫情已经结束。事实上，一个风险是，新的Covid-19变种迫使美国各州和城市再次收紧健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>低薪工人仍然受到严重伤害</b></blockquote></p><p> Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，许多经济学家敦促华盛顿推进激进的财政刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> \"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“请把脚平放在油门上。”“政策制定101说，错误在于做得太多，而不是做得太少。”</blockquote></p><p> Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p><p><blockquote>做得太少可能会加剧美国的不平等问题。这是因为与之前的衰退相比，这次衰退对餐馆、儿童保育和酒店业等遭受重创行业的低收入工人造成了不成比例的伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据Opportunity Insights经济跟踪系统的数据，低工资工人（年收入低于27,000美元的人）的就业水平仍下降了20%以上。相比之下，年收入超过6万美元的人的就业水平高于危机前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的经济学家在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果收入和种族群体之间的充分就业情况不明显，拜登的团队就不太可能为实现充分就业而开香槟。”</blockquote></p><p> However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，前美联储官员、现任Quill Intelligence首席执行官丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth)担心，专注于提供收入，而不是投资基础设施和再培训工人，会让该国沉迷于刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯说：“经济将变成这个依赖患者，总是等待下一次注射。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Bring it on'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“来吧”</b></blockquote></p><p> Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington&nbsp;overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p><p><blockquote>包括前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的一些经济学家警告说，华盛顿注入过多支持可能会导致经济过热。</blockquote></p><p> \"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯表示：“未来几个月可能会出现相当大的通胀恐慌，这将考验债券市场和美联储。”</blockquote></p><p> And that in turn would spook the&nbsp;red-hot stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这反过来又会惊动炙手可热的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p><p><blockquote>美联储观察人士正在提前确定美联储何时能够结束紧急政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>高盛援引“通胀前景走强的迹象”，目前预计美联储将在2022年初开始“缩减”资产购买规模，并在2024年上半年加息。</blockquote></p><p> Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p><p><blockquote>赞迪并没有因为通货膨胀而失眠，主要是因为美国还远未实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一种被大大夸大的担忧，”他说。“来吧。十多年来，我们最大的问题一直是低通胀。更高的通胀将是一个高级问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108705396","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and millions of families were about to lose crucial benefits.\nFast forward two months, and the economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.\nEconomists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.\nThe renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the health crisis is easing and Uncle Sam is coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.\nAfter supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.\n\"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.\nThe turning point happened last month when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.\n'Summer mini-boom'\nBefore the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\n\"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.\nOxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.\nLikewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"\n\"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.\nIndeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.\nThe rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.\nDouble-dip recession averted\nThe Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.\nFor months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.\nAt the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.\n\"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.\nSlammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States added just 49,000 jobs in January.\nJobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.\nVaccines to the rescue\nBut there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.\nCritically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.\nAnd Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.\nAll of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.\nThat's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.\nLow-wage workers are still hurting badly\nAgainst this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.\n\"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"\nDoing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.\nEmployment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.\n\"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.\nHowever, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.\n\"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.\n'Bring it on'\nSome economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington overheats the economy by injecting too much support.\n\"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.\nAnd that in turn would spook the red-hot stock market.\nFed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.\nCiting \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.\nZandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.\n\"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}