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LarryLi
06-09
真牛逼啊，每次都能把油价打下去！
37次“即将达成”！特朗普不断预告伊朗协议，却一次次落空
LarryLi
06-07
华尔街这么说的目的就是让你在低位把筹码交出去，你们交不交？不交是吧！继续砸盘！再砸百分之10！
债券巨头买入债券，为AI泡沫破裂做准备
LarryLi
06-06
华尔街这帮，来回收割！
美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点
LarryLi
04-02
霍尔木兹海峡不开放，美国怎么可能退缩，要的就是石油
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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19:05","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"37次“即将达成”！特朗普不断预告伊朗协议，却一次次落空","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642464134","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"37次“即将达成”协议，0次落地。特朗普6月9日再称美伊谈判‘两到三天内’敲定，但自3月以来其乐观表态已导致市场敏感性下降。分析人士指出，此类口头信号的可信度已严重受损。大宗商品投资者在评估“即将达成”类声明时，宜维持较高的预期折扣系数。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>37次“即将达成”协议，0次落地。特朗普6月9日再称美伊谈判‘两到三天内’敲定，但自3月以来其乐观表态已导致市场敏感性下降。分析人士指出，此类口头信号的可信度已严重受损。大宗商品投资者在评估“即将达成”类声明时，宜维持较高的预期折扣系数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当地时间6月9日，特朗普再度表示，美伊谈判已进入“最后关头”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社，特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。<strong>当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，据媒体统计，过去两个多月间，<strong>特朗普已至少37次公开释放类似乐观信号</strong>。自4月7日宣布停火以来，其措辞从“非常接近协议”到“伊朗愿给一切”不断升级，<strong>但始终未见实质性成果落地</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，<strong>此类反复出现的表态模式正削弱其市场参考价值</strong>。无论出于稳定金融市场考量，还是制造舆论压力推动谈判，缺乏具体进展支撑的口头信号，已引发投资者系统性降低敏感度。</p><h2 id=\"id_2290830803\" style=\"text-align: left;\">37次“即将达成”：一份未能落地的表态时间线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CNN统计，自3月23日以来，<strong>特朗普已至少37次公开表示美伊协议“即将达成”或伊朗“迫切希望谈判”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">时间线显示，这一模式始于停火之前。3月23日，特朗普称双方已就“几乎所有要点”达成共识，但伊朗随即否认存在任何谈判。此后其措辞逐步升级：3月25日称伊朗“非常想达成协议”，3月26日称伊朗“在乞求达成协议”，3月29日则称“我确实预见到伊朗协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4月7日宣布停火后，<strong>特朗普将原定两周的谈判窗口描述为协议“最终确定”所需时间，但两周后协议并未落地</strong>。此后，他在4月15日、17日前后多次重申协议“非常接近”，4月30日又称伊朗“渴望达成协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">进入5月，表态节奏未见放缓。5月18日，他以中东国家请求为由，将军事打击推迟“两三天”，理由是各方“认为非常接近达成协议”。5月23日，他表示协议“基本谈完，等待最终确认”，并称将“很快”宣布。5月28日，他在访谈中再次表示“接近一项非常好的协议”。</p><h2 id=\"id_3129771225\" style=\"text-align: left;\">信号失灵：反复口头表态侵蚀市场参考价值</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普本人在5月18日罕见承认此前预测落空：“我们曾有过几段时期，以为相当接近达成协议，但最终没有成功。”尽管他补充称“这次有些不同”，但后续走势再度证明情况并无实质变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CNN分析指出，<strong>特朗普持续发出此类信号，或源于判断失误，或为稳定金融市场而有意为之，亦或试图通过反复表态将其“自我实现”。但无论动机如何，这一模式已严重侵蚀相关声明的市场信号价值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对依赖地缘风险溢价定价的大宗商品及能源市场而言，单一政治表态已难以构成可靠的交易依据。在协议实质性落地之前，市场有充分理由对“即将达成”类口头声明维持较高的预期折扣。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>37次“即将达成”！特朗普不断预告伊朗协议，却一次次落空</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n37次“即将达成”！特朗普不断预告伊朗协议，却一次次落空\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-09 19:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>37次“即将达成”协议，0次落地。特朗普6月9日再称美伊谈判‘两到三天内’敲定，但自3月以来其乐观表态已导致市场敏感性下降。分析人士指出，此类口头信号的可信度已严重受损。大宗商品投资者在评估“即将达成”类声明时，宜维持较高的预期折扣系数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当地时间6月9日，特朗普再度表示，美伊谈判已进入“最后关头”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社，特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。<strong>当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，据媒体统计，过去两个多月间，<strong>特朗普已至少37次公开释放类似乐观信号</strong>。自4月7日宣布停火以来，其措辞从“非常接近协议”到“伊朗愿给一切”不断升级，<strong>但始终未见实质性成果落地</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，<strong>此类反复出现的表态模式正削弱其市场参考价值</strong>。无论出于稳定金融市场考量，还是制造舆论压力推动谈判，缺乏具体进展支撑的口头信号，已引发投资者系统性降低敏感度。</p><h2 id=\"id_2290830803\" style=\"text-align: left;\">37次“即将达成”：一份未能落地的表态时间线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CNN统计，自3月23日以来，<strong>特朗普已至少37次公开表示美伊协议“即将达成”或伊朗“迫切希望谈判”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">时间线显示，这一模式始于停火之前。3月23日，特朗普称双方已就“几乎所有要点”达成共识，但伊朗随即否认存在任何谈判。此后其措辞逐步升级：3月25日称伊朗“非常想达成协议”，3月26日称伊朗“在乞求达成协议”，3月29日则称“我确实预见到伊朗协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4月7日宣布停火后，<strong>特朗普将原定两周的谈判窗口描述为协议“最终确定”所需时间，但两周后协议并未落地</strong>。此后，他在4月15日、17日前后多次重申协议“非常接近”，4月30日又称伊朗“渴望达成协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">进入5月，表态节奏未见放缓。5月18日，他以中东国家请求为由，将军事打击推迟“两三天”，理由是各方“认为非常接近达成协议”。5月23日，他表示协议“基本谈完，等待最终确认”，并称将“很快”宣布。5月28日，他在访谈中再次表示“接近一项非常好的协议”。</p><h2 id=\"id_3129771225\" style=\"text-align: left;\">信号失灵：反复口头表态侵蚀市场参考价值</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普本人在5月18日罕见承认此前预测落空：“我们曾有过几段时期，以为相当接近达成协议，但最终没有成功。”尽管他补充称“这次有些不同”，但后续走势再度证明情况并无实质变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CNN分析指出，<strong>特朗普持续发出此类信号，或源于判断失误，或为稳定金融市场而有意为之，亦或试图通过反复表态将其“自我实现”。但无论动机如何，这一模式已严重侵蚀相关声明的市场信号价值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对依赖地缘风险溢价定价的大宗商品及能源市场而言，单一政治表态已难以构成可靠的交易依据。在协议实质性落地之前，市场有充分理由对“即将达成”类口头声明维持较高的预期折扣。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774230","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642464134","content_text":"37次“即将达成”协议，0次落地。特朗普6月9日再称美伊谈判‘两到三天内’敲定，但自3月以来其乐观表态已导致市场敏感性下降。分析人士指出，此类口头信号的可信度已严重受损。大宗商品投资者在评估“即将达成”类声明时，宜维持较高的预期折扣系数。当地时间6月9日，特朗普再度表示，美伊谈判已进入“最后关头”。据新华社，特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”然而，据媒体统计，过去两个多月间，特朗普已至少37次公开释放类似乐观信号。自4月7日宣布停火以来，其措辞从“非常接近协议”到“伊朗愿给一切”不断升级，但始终未见实质性成果落地。分析人士认为，此类反复出现的表态模式正削弱其市场参考价值。无论出于稳定金融市场考量，还是制造舆论压力推动谈判，缺乏具体进展支撑的口头信号，已引发投资者系统性降低敏感度。37次“即将达成”：一份未能落地的表态时间线据CNN统计，自3月23日以来，特朗普已至少37次公开表示美伊协议“即将达成”或伊朗“迫切希望谈判”。时间线显示，这一模式始于停火之前。3月23日，特朗普称双方已就“几乎所有要点”达成共识，但伊朗随即否认存在任何谈判。此后其措辞逐步升级：3月25日称伊朗“非常想达成协议”，3月26日称伊朗“在乞求达成协议”，3月29日则称“我确实预见到伊朗协议”。4月7日宣布停火后，特朗普将原定两周的谈判窗口描述为协议“最终确定”所需时间，但两周后协议并未落地。此后，他在4月15日、17日前后多次重申协议“非常接近”，4月30日又称伊朗“渴望达成协议”。进入5月，表态节奏未见放缓。5月18日，他以中东国家请求为由，将军事打击推迟“两三天”，理由是各方“认为非常接近达成协议”。5月23日，他表示协议“基本谈完，等待最终确认”，并称将“很快”宣布。5月28日，他在访谈中再次表示“接近一项非常好的协议”。信号失灵：反复口头表态侵蚀市场参考价值特朗普本人在5月18日罕见承认此前预测落空：“我们曾有过几段时期，以为相当接近达成协议，但最终没有成功。”尽管他补充称“这次有些不同”，但后续走势再度证明情况并无实质变化。CNN分析指出，特朗普持续发出此类信号，或源于判断失误，或为稳定金融市场而有意为之，亦或试图通过反复表态将其“自我实现”。但无论动机如何，这一模式已严重侵蚀相关声明的市场信号价值。对依赖地缘风险溢价定价的大宗商品及能源市场而言，单一政治表态已难以构成可靠的交易依据。在协议实质性落地之前，市场有充分理由对“即将达成”类口头声明维持较高的预期折扣。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572551787489648,"gmtCreate":1780805551001,"gmtModify":1780806795343,"author":{"id":"3567595867321306","authorId":"3567595867321306","name":"LarryLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa302a201e5a4ddf627eb5348aa2169","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567595867321306","idStr":"3567595867321306"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街这么说的目的就是让你在低位把筹码交出去，你们交不交？不交是吧！继续砸盘！再砸百分之10！","listText":"华尔街这么说的目的就是让你在低位把筹码交出去，你们交不交？不交是吧！继续砸盘！再砸百分之10！","text":"华尔街这么说的目的就是让你在低位把筹码交出去，你们交不交？不交是吧！继续砸盘！再砸百分之10！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572551787489648","repostId":"2641178949","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2641178949","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1780801062,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2641178949?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-07 10:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"债券巨头买入债券，为AI泡沫破裂做准备","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641178949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"双线资本基金经理Robert Cohen认为，债券价格和估值虽然目前尚未过热，但随着科技公司持续向AI倾注巨资，未来数月或数年内无疑将达到泡沫水平，投资者需要寻找那些通过结构性安排或强大资产负债表就能存活的标的。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>信用债巨头双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）和橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）正在为AI泡沫可能的破裂提前布局——买入能在深度信贷周期中存活的债券。</p>\n<p>"AI泡沫的概率有多大？我会说大概是100%。"双线资本基金经理Robert Cohen周三在彭博全球信用债论坛上说。</p>\n<h2>涌入市场的巨量AI债务</h2>\n<p>AI基础设施建设引发的举债规模正在迅速膨胀。</p>\n<p>据巴克莱5月21日报告，美国超大规模科技公司今年在全球发行的无担保债券已超1550亿美元，较去年全年发行总量高出逾45%。彭博智库预测，未来五年企业用于AI的资本开支将达约5万亿美元，其中很大一部分来自债务融资。</p>\n<p>超级科技公司之外的融资同样火热。仅本周，数据中心公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUT\">Hut 8</a>就发行了约40亿美元投资级债券为德克萨斯州项目融资，这笔与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>相关的债券获得了四倍超额认购；一笔为AI模型开发商Anthropic采购芯片的360亿美元债券发售也接近完成。</p>\n<h2>"什么样的信用债能挺过深度周期"</h2>\n<p>债务洪流之下，没有哪个资金管理人能视而不见。但Cohen认为，债券价格和估值虽然目前尚未过热，但随着科技公司持续向AI倾注巨资，未来数月或数年内无疑将达到泡沫水平。</p>\n<p>投资AI相关债务的核心难题在于：许多在售债券要数十年后才到期，届时当前技术可能已经过时。数据中心尤其面临过度建设风险——建设周期漫长，而大量项目正在同时上马。</p>\n<p>"你必须思考什么样的信用债能够挺过一个深度周期，"Cohen说，"你需要的是那些通过结构性安排或强大资产负债表就能存活的标的。"</p>\n<p>Cohen将信用泡沫定义为：投资者向那些需要实际增长才能偿付债务的公司提供融资。历史上的技术繁荣，往往正是以这种方式走向泡沫。</p>\n<h2>买，但要挑着买</h2>\n<p>橡树资本的策略如出一辙——即便尚无法确知泡沫何时到来，该公司已按照未来可能出现投机过度的前提进行投资布局。</p>\n<p>橡树资本私人信贷联席投资组合经理Christina Lee表示，数据中心融资是一个庞大且仍在增长的机会，"但我们必须精挑细选，因为确实还不清楚这场竞争中谁会胜出、谁会出局。"</p>\n<p>橡树资本联合创始人Howard Marks去年12月撰文警示："没有人应该在不承认面临毁灭风险的前提下全仓押注。但同样，没有人应该完全袖手旁观，而错过一次伟大的技术跃迁。"</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>投资管理公司（PIMCO）集团首席投资官Dan Ivascyn则更为审慎。他表示AI不是一个适合超配的板块，但正因融资需求巨大，"你可以在整体敞口上保持防御，同时释放巨大的价值。"他还警告，一旦出现违约，损失幅度可能超出投资者以往的经验。随着大量债务持续涌入，PIMCO希望凭借自身体量捕捉其中真正有吸引力的机会。</p>\n<p>桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio本周在彭博电视上指出，大规模技术革命在历史上总是伴随投机过度。企业面临的困境是："要么砸重金抢市场份额，不管是否花多了；要么花得不够，把市场份额拱手让人。"</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>债券巨头买入债券，为AI泡沫破裂做准备</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n债券巨头买入债券，为AI泡沫破裂做准备\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-07 10:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>信用债巨头双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）和橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）正在为AI泡沫可能的破裂提前布局——买入能在深度信贷周期中存活的债券。</p>\n<p>"AI泡沫的概率有多大？我会说大概是100%。"双线资本基金经理Robert Cohen周三在彭博全球信用债论坛上说。</p>\n<h2>涌入市场的巨量AI债务</h2>\n<p>AI基础设施建设引发的举债规模正在迅速膨胀。</p>\n<p>据巴克莱5月21日报告，美国超大规模科技公司今年在全球发行的无担保债券已超1550亿美元，较去年全年发行总量高出逾45%。彭博智库预测，未来五年企业用于AI的资本开支将达约5万亿美元，其中很大一部分来自债务融资。</p>\n<p>超级科技公司之外的融资同样火热。仅本周，数据中心公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUT\">Hut 8</a>就发行了约40亿美元投资级债券为德克萨斯州项目融资，这笔与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>相关的债券获得了四倍超额认购；一笔为AI模型开发商Anthropic采购芯片的360亿美元债券发售也接近完成。</p>\n<h2>"什么样的信用债能挺过深度周期"</h2>\n<p>债务洪流之下，没有哪个资金管理人能视而不见。但Cohen认为，债券价格和估值虽然目前尚未过热，但随着科技公司持续向AI倾注巨资，未来数月或数年内无疑将达到泡沫水平。</p>\n<p>投资AI相关债务的核心难题在于：许多在售债券要数十年后才到期，届时当前技术可能已经过时。数据中心尤其面临过度建设风险——建设周期漫长，而大量项目正在同时上马。</p>\n<p>"你必须思考什么样的信用债能够挺过一个深度周期，"Cohen说，"你需要的是那些通过结构性安排或强大资产负债表就能存活的标的。"</p>\n<p>Cohen将信用泡沫定义为：投资者向那些需要实际增长才能偿付债务的公司提供融资。历史上的技术繁荣，往往正是以这种方式走向泡沫。</p>\n<h2>买，但要挑着买</h2>\n<p>橡树资本的策略如出一辙——即便尚无法确知泡沫何时到来，该公司已按照未来可能出现投机过度的前提进行投资布局。</p>\n<p>橡树资本私人信贷联席投资组合经理Christina Lee表示，数据中心融资是一个庞大且仍在增长的机会，"但我们必须精挑细选，因为确实还不清楚这场竞争中谁会胜出、谁会出局。"</p>\n<p>橡树资本联合创始人Howard Marks去年12月撰文警示："没有人应该在不承认面临毁灭风险的前提下全仓押注。但同样，没有人应该完全袖手旁观，而错过一次伟大的技术跃迁。"</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>投资管理公司（PIMCO）集团首席投资官Dan Ivascyn则更为审慎。他表示AI不是一个适合超配的板块，但正因融资需求巨大，"你可以在整体敞口上保持防御，同时释放巨大的价值。"他还警告，一旦出现违约，损失幅度可能超出投资者以往的经验。随着大量债务持续涌入，PIMCO希望凭借自身体量捕捉其中真正有吸引力的机会。</p>\n<p>桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio本周在彭博电视上指出，大规模技术革命在历史上总是伴随投机过度。企业面临的困境是："要么砸重金抢市场份额，不管是否花多了；要么花得不够，把市场份额拱手让人。"</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ece06f0d5f47ced3643ec6cfcc433e","relate_stocks":{"DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income 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ETN","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774027","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2641178949","content_text":"信用债巨头双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）和橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）正在为AI泡沫可能的破裂提前布局——买入能在深度信贷周期中存活的债券。\n\"AI泡沫的概率有多大？我会说大概是100%。\"双线资本基金经理Robert Cohen周三在彭博全球信用债论坛上说。\n涌入市场的巨量AI债务\nAI基础设施建设引发的举债规模正在迅速膨胀。\n据巴克莱5月21日报告，美国超大规模科技公司今年在全球发行的无担保债券已超1550亿美元，较去年全年发行总量高出逾45%。彭博智库预测，未来五年企业用于AI的资本开支将达约5万亿美元，其中很大一部分来自债务融资。\n超级科技公司之外的融资同样火热。仅本周，数据中心公司Hut 8就发行了约40亿美元投资级债券为德克萨斯州项目融资，这笔与英伟达相关的债券获得了四倍超额认购；一笔为AI模型开发商Anthropic采购芯片的360亿美元债券发售也接近完成。\n\"什么样的信用债能挺过深度周期\"\n债务洪流之下，没有哪个资金管理人能视而不见。但Cohen认为，债券价格和估值虽然目前尚未过热，但随着科技公司持续向AI倾注巨资，未来数月或数年内无疑将达到泡沫水平。\n投资AI相关债务的核心难题在于：许多在售债券要数十年后才到期，届时当前技术可能已经过时。数据中心尤其面临过度建设风险——建设周期漫长，而大量项目正在同时上马。\n\"你必须思考什么样的信用债能够挺过一个深度周期，\"Cohen说，\"你需要的是那些通过结构性安排或强大资产负债表就能存活的标的。\"\nCohen将信用泡沫定义为：投资者向那些需要实际增长才能偿付债务的公司提供融资。历史上的技术繁荣，往往正是以这种方式走向泡沫。\n买，但要挑着买\n橡树资本的策略如出一辙——即便尚无法确知泡沫何时到来，该公司已按照未来可能出现投机过度的前提进行投资布局。\n橡树资本私人信贷联席投资组合经理Christina Lee表示，数据中心融资是一个庞大且仍在增长的机会，\"但我们必须精挑细选，因为确实还不清楚这场竞争中谁会胜出、谁会出局。\"\n橡树资本联合创始人Howard Marks去年12月撰文警示：\"没有人应该在不承认面临毁灭风险的前提下全仓押注。但同样，没有人应该完全袖手旁观，而错过一次伟大的技术跃迁。\"\n太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）集团首席投资官Dan Ivascyn则更为审慎。他表示AI不是一个适合超配的板块，但正因融资需求巨大，\"你可以在整体敞口上保持防御，同时释放巨大的价值。\"他还警告，一旦出现违约，损失幅度可能超出投资者以往的经验。随着大量债务持续涌入，PIMCO希望凭借自身体量捕捉其中真正有吸引力的机会。\n桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio本周在彭博电视上指出，大规模技术革命在历史上总是伴随投机过度。企业面临的困境是：\"要么砸重金抢市场份额，不管是否花多了；要么花得不够，把市场份额拱手让人。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPXU":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":2,"AGIX":1.5,"BND":2,"TBT":2,"UDOW":0.6,"HYG":2,"VOO":0.6,"BNDW":1.5,"TMV":2,"VGIT":2,"GOVT":2,"SPYM":0.6,"TLH":2,"YSPY":0.6,"AIPO":1.5,"DXD":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"TLT":2,"SHV":2,"SPXS":0.6,".IXIC":2,"DMAX":0.6,"BOXX":2,"SHY":2,".DJI":2,".SPX":2,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SCHO":2,"DIA":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"EDV":2,"IVV":0.6,"ARTY":1.5,"TMF":2,"TLTW":2,"SPXL":0.6,"IEF":2,"AGG":2,"SGOV":2,"SPY":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"UBT":2,"VGLT":2,"VGSH":2,"HIBL":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"NQmain":2,"YMmain":2,"MMAX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572283475583536,"gmtCreate":1780740232095,"gmtModify":1780744309526,"author":{"id":"3567595867321306","authorId":"3567595867321306","name":"LarryLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa302a201e5a4ddf627eb5348aa2169","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567595867321306","idStr":"3567595867321306"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街这帮，来回收割！","listText":"华尔街这帮，来回收割！","text":"华尔街这帮，来回收割！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572283475583536","repostId":"2641112596","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2641112596","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1780714169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2641112596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-06 10:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641112596","media":"智通财经","summary":"美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美股三大指数周五集体重挫。道琼斯指数跌1.35%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数跌2.64%，创2025年10月以来最大单日跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数跌4.18%，跌幅超1100点，创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局周五公布的数据显示，5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，超过所有经济学家预期，4月增幅则从此前公布的11.5万人大幅上修至17.9万人，这使得美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平;失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">就业强劲叠加能源价格高企，可能进一步加大美联储考虑加息以遏制通胀的压力。多位美联储官员已经表示，在美国通胀指标持续高于2%目标且偏离程度不断扩大的情况下，他们无法支持降息。近几周以来，这些官员对于进一步加息的态度也开始变得更加开放。利率掉期市场显示，交易员预计美联储将在12月政策会议前加息25个基点，并认为10月加息的概率约为60%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>集团美洲股票执行服务主管约翰·弗拉德认为，周五美股的回调为投资者提供了增持仓位的机会，而非撤退的理由。他认为，标普500指数今年达到8000点存在一条清晰的上行路径。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，美股周五的下跌很可能是由投资者在周末前获利了结、以及市场预期首次公开募股(IPO)将带来更多股票供给所推动。而历史经验表明，这类抛售往往会为买入者带来回报。他表示：“今年可供买入的回调并不多。从历史上看，在标普500指数回调2%时买入往往能够获得回报，我认为现在依然如此。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，投资者目前最常提及的问题包括通胀、涉及伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势以及私募信贷市场风险。但他认为，这些担忧更像是一堵健康的“忧虑之墙”，而非市场信心恶化的证据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他认为，更广泛的市场背景仍然具有支撑作用。尽管标普500指数今年已经创下24次历史新高，但高盛的专有市场情绪指标——该指标综合了对冲基金、共同基金、散户投资者以及海外投资者的仓位情况——目前仍接近中性水平。他表示：“尽管从指数层面来看，股市已经接近历史高点，但市场上依然存在大量担忧情绪。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19f1579e2b449c78d17a47c5850bbc92\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从机构投资者角度来看，弗拉德认为当前仓位管理依然较为克制，而非过度亢奋。高盛主经纪业务数据显示，对冲基金总敞口(即多头与空头仓位之和)已接近历史最高水平。投资者目前仍持有大量人工智能(AI)和科技股多头仓位，同时也在股票指数和交易所交易基金(ETF)等宏观工具上维持大规模空头头寸。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示：“这告诉我，市场对于未来走势依然保持着健康的怀疑态度。”他补充称，如果对冲基金未来开始回补这些对冲仓位，可能会推动股市开启下一轮上涨行情。与此同时，共同基金的现金持有比例仍接近长期平均水平，意味着投资者手中依然拥有可投入股市的资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于新股发行，弗拉德表示，机构投资者的需求强度是他职业生涯中所见最强之一。他提到了有关<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>(META.US)正考虑进行大规模股票发行的报道。此前，本周早些时候，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>(GOOGL.US)完成了一笔备受关注的大型交易。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，大型科技公司进行大规模股权融资反映的是市场需求健康，而非投机泡沫。他表示：“对于这些股票发行项目的需求，从未像现在这样强劲。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在散户投资者方面，弗拉德预计，只要就业市场保持稳健，买盘活动就将继续保持韧性。高盛数据显示，自2020年3月疫情最严重时期以来，美国散户投资者从未连续超过一周成为美国股票市场的净卖家。他表示：“除非我们开始看到就业岗位大规模流失，否则散户买盘很可能会继续成为市场中一个稳定而健康的力量。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在弗拉德看来，最有可能挑战其乐观预期的因素，是美国企业整体盈利表现出现广泛性失望。不过目前，他并未看到这样的迹象。他指出：“如果标普500指数成分股整体盈利表现令人失望，那将是一个非常值得担忧的信号。但我们目前还没有看到任何这方面的证据。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着一系列备受瞩目的IPO即将到来——其中包括SpaceX和Anthropic的上市计划，弗拉德表示，目前的新股发行管道更符合基本面逻辑，而非市场见顶信号。他还预计，企业股票回购需求将抵消IPO带来的新增供给。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">至于短期战术性风险，弗拉德指出，在经历了强劲的一年之后，商品交易顾问(CTA)以及波动率控制基金等系统化投资者目前已经持有相对较高比例的标普500指数敞口。他表示，如果未来连续多个交易日出现股市走弱，这类投资者可能转而成为卖方。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过截至目前，弗拉德依然坚定看多市场。他表示：“我们认为这些回调都是买入机会。今年标普500指数迈向8000点甚至更高水平，存在一条清晰的路径。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-06 10:49 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1451063.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股三大指数周五集体重挫。道琼斯指数跌1.35%;标普500指数跌2.64%，创2025年10月以来最大单日跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数跌4.18%，跌幅超1100点，创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。美国劳工统计局...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1451063.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a33c23f8e5a366189f532d19af270ed","relate_stocks":{"LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237957902.USD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","TSPY":"TappAlpha SPY Growth & Daily Income ETF","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND 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INC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1451063.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2641112596","content_text":"美股三大指数周五集体重挫。道琼斯指数跌1.35%;标普500指数跌2.64%，创2025年10月以来最大单日跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数跌4.18%，跌幅超1100点，创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。美国劳工统计局周五公布的数据显示，5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，超过所有经济学家预期，4月增幅则从此前公布的11.5万人大幅上修至17.9万人，这使得美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平;失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%。就业强劲叠加能源价格高企，可能进一步加大美联储考虑加息以遏制通胀的压力。多位美联储官员已经表示，在美国通胀指标持续高于2%目标且偏离程度不断扩大的情况下，他们无法支持降息。近几周以来，这些官员对于进一步加息的态度也开始变得更加开放。利率掉期市场显示，交易员预计美联储将在12月政策会议前加息25个基点，并认为10月加息的概率约为60%。不过，高盛集团美洲股票执行服务主管约翰·弗拉德认为，周五美股的回调为投资者提供了增持仓位的机会，而非撤退的理由。他认为，标普500指数今年达到8000点存在一条清晰的上行路径。弗拉德表示，美股周五的下跌很可能是由投资者在周末前获利了结、以及市场预期首次公开募股(IPO)将带来更多股票供给所推动。而历史经验表明，这类抛售往往会为买入者带来回报。他表示：“今年可供买入的回调并不多。从历史上看，在标普500指数回调2%时买入往往能够获得回报，我认为现在依然如此。”弗拉德表示，投资者目前最常提及的问题包括通胀、涉及伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势以及私募信贷市场风险。但他认为，这些担忧更像是一堵健康的“忧虑之墙”，而非市场信心恶化的证据。他认为，更广泛的市场背景仍然具有支撑作用。尽管标普500指数今年已经创下24次历史新高，但高盛的专有市场情绪指标——该指标综合了对冲基金、共同基金、散户投资者以及海外投资者的仓位情况——目前仍接近中性水平。他表示：“尽管从指数层面来看，股市已经接近历史高点，但市场上依然存在大量担忧情绪。”从机构投资者角度来看，弗拉德认为当前仓位管理依然较为克制，而非过度亢奋。高盛主经纪业务数据显示，对冲基金总敞口(即多头与空头仓位之和)已接近历史最高水平。投资者目前仍持有大量人工智能(AI)和科技股多头仓位，同时也在股票指数和交易所交易基金(ETF)等宏观工具上维持大规模空头头寸。弗拉德表示：“这告诉我，市场对于未来走势依然保持着健康的怀疑态度。”他补充称，如果对冲基金未来开始回补这些对冲仓位，可能会推动股市开启下一轮上涨行情。与此同时，共同基金的现金持有比例仍接近长期平均水平，意味着投资者手中依然拥有可投入股市的资金。对于新股发行，弗拉德表示，机构投资者的需求强度是他职业生涯中所见最强之一。他提到了有关Meta Platforms(META.US)正考虑进行大规模股票发行的报道。此前，本周早些时候，谷歌(GOOGL.US)完成了一笔备受关注的大型交易。弗拉德表示，大型科技公司进行大规模股权融资反映的是市场需求健康，而非投机泡沫。他表示：“对于这些股票发行项目的需求，从未像现在这样强劲。”在散户投资者方面，弗拉德预计，只要就业市场保持稳健，买盘活动就将继续保持韧性。高盛数据显示，自2020年3月疫情最严重时期以来，美国散户投资者从未连续超过一周成为美国股票市场的净卖家。他表示：“除非我们开始看到就业岗位大规模流失，否则散户买盘很可能会继续成为市场中一个稳定而健康的力量。”在弗拉德看来，最有可能挑战其乐观预期的因素，是美国企业整体盈利表现出现广泛性失望。不过目前，他并未看到这样的迹象。他指出：“如果标普500指数成分股整体盈利表现令人失望，那将是一个非常值得担忧的信号。但我们目前还没有看到任何这方面的证据。”随着一系列备受瞩目的IPO即将到来——其中包括SpaceX和Anthropic的上市计划，弗拉德表示，目前的新股发行管道更符合基本面逻辑，而非市场见顶信号。他还预计，企业股票回购需求将抵消IPO带来的新增供给。至于短期战术性风险，弗拉德指出，在经历了强劲的一年之后，商品交易顾问(CTA)以及波动率控制基金等系统化投资者目前已经持有相对较高比例的标普500指数敞口。他表示，如果未来连续多个交易日出现股市走弱，这类投资者可能转而成为卖方。不过截至目前，弗拉德依然坚定看多市场。他表示：“我们认为这些回调都是买入机会。今年标普500指数迈向8000点甚至更高水平，存在一条清晰的路径。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIA":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"GPIX":0.6,"SPYV":0.6,".DJI":2,"RSPU":0.6,"VEU":0.6,"JEPI":0.6,"DBSC":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"TQQQ":2,"UVIX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPUS":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"RSPN":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"ALLW":0.6,"VIXmain":2,"SPDN":0.6,"HIBS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"XDTE":0.6,"SPYB":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"GSX":0.6,"SFY":0.6,"TSPY":0.6,".IXIC":2,"VIXY":2,"VTV":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"ITOT":0.6,"NQmain":2,"XYLD":0.6,"ESmain":2,"NOBL":0.6,"RSPA":0.6,"SPMO":0.6,"IVE":0.6,"SPLV":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"XLG":0.6,"VV":0.6,"VTI":0.6,"ACWI":0.6,"IJR":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPHQ":0.6,"VXX":2,"MOAT":0.6,"SPYG":0.6,"SQQQ":2,"VBK":0.6,"IJH":0.6,"SCHB":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"RSP":0.6,"VIX":2,"SVIX":0.6,"SVXY":0.6,"QQQ":2,"DDM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVW":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"ETFT":0.6,"BMAY":0.6,"SPGP":0.6,"YMmain":2,"SPYQ":0.6,".SPX":2,"SCHX":0.6,"SPHD":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"SPYD":0.6,"GSLC":0.6,"IVV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549296579957480,"gmtCreate":1775127442112,"gmtModify":1775135135968,"author":{"id":"3567595867321306","authorId":"3567595867321306","name":"LarryLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa302a201e5a4ddf627eb5348aa2169","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567595867321306","idStr":"3567595867321306"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"霍尔木兹海峡不开放，美国怎么可能退缩，要的就是石油","listText":"霍尔木兹海峡不开放，美国怎么可能退缩，要的就是石油","text":"霍尔木兹海峡不开放，美国怎么可能退缩，要的就是石油","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6206ff4a399811d14625e06122352bb6","width":"960","height":"1503"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549296579957480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":549296579957480,"gmtCreate":1775127442112,"gmtModify":1775135135968,"author":{"id":"3567595867321306","authorId":"3567595867321306","name":"LarryLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa302a201e5a4ddf627eb5348aa2169","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567595867321306","authorIdStr":"3567595867321306"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"霍尔木兹海峡不开放，美国怎么可能退缩，要的就是石油","listText":"霍尔木兹海峡不开放，美国怎么可能退缩，要的就是石油","text":"霍尔木兹海峡不开放，美国怎么可能退缩，要的就是石油","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6206ff4a399811d14625e06122352bb6","width":"960","height":"1503"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549296579957480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573337744539832,"gmtCreate":1781004674371,"gmtModify":1781005850289,"author":{"id":"3567595867321306","authorId":"3567595867321306","name":"LarryLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa302a201e5a4ddf627eb5348aa2169","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567595867321306","authorIdStr":"3567595867321306"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"真牛逼啊，每次都能把油价打下去！","listText":"真牛逼啊，每次都能把油价打下去！","text":"真牛逼啊，每次都能把油价打下去！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573337744539832","repostId":"2642464134","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2642464134","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1781003101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2642464134?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-09 19:05","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"37次“即将达成”！特朗普不断预告伊朗协议，却一次次落空","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642464134","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"37次“即将达成”协议，0次落地。特朗普6月9日再称美伊谈判‘两到三天内’敲定，但自3月以来其乐观表态已导致市场敏感性下降。分析人士指出，此类口头信号的可信度已严重受损。大宗商品投资者在评估“即将达成”类声明时，宜维持较高的预期折扣系数。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>37次“即将达成”协议，0次落地。特朗普6月9日再称美伊谈判‘两到三天内’敲定，但自3月以来其乐观表态已导致市场敏感性下降。分析人士指出，此类口头信号的可信度已严重受损。大宗商品投资者在评估“即将达成”类声明时，宜维持较高的预期折扣系数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当地时间6月9日，特朗普再度表示，美伊谈判已进入“最后关头”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社，特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。<strong>当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，据媒体统计，过去两个多月间，<strong>特朗普已至少37次公开释放类似乐观信号</strong>。自4月7日宣布停火以来，其措辞从“非常接近协议”到“伊朗愿给一切”不断升级，<strong>但始终未见实质性成果落地</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，<strong>此类反复出现的表态模式正削弱其市场参考价值</strong>。无论出于稳定金融市场考量，还是制造舆论压力推动谈判，缺乏具体进展支撑的口头信号，已引发投资者系统性降低敏感度。</p><h2 id=\"id_2290830803\" style=\"text-align: left;\">37次“即将达成”：一份未能落地的表态时间线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CNN统计，自3月23日以来，<strong>特朗普已至少37次公开表示美伊协议“即将达成”或伊朗“迫切希望谈判”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">时间线显示，这一模式始于停火之前。3月23日，特朗普称双方已就“几乎所有要点”达成共识，但伊朗随即否认存在任何谈判。此后其措辞逐步升级：3月25日称伊朗“非常想达成协议”，3月26日称伊朗“在乞求达成协议”，3月29日则称“我确实预见到伊朗协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4月7日宣布停火后，<strong>特朗普将原定两周的谈判窗口描述为协议“最终确定”所需时间，但两周后协议并未落地</strong>。此后，他在4月15日、17日前后多次重申协议“非常接近”，4月30日又称伊朗“渴望达成协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">进入5月，表态节奏未见放缓。5月18日，他以中东国家请求为由，将军事打击推迟“两三天”，理由是各方“认为非常接近达成协议”。5月23日，他表示协议“基本谈完，等待最终确认”，并称将“很快”宣布。5月28日，他在访谈中再次表示“接近一项非常好的协议”。</p><h2 id=\"id_3129771225\" style=\"text-align: left;\">信号失灵：反复口头表态侵蚀市场参考价值</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普本人在5月18日罕见承认此前预测落空：“我们曾有过几段时期，以为相当接近达成协议，但最终没有成功。”尽管他补充称“这次有些不同”，但后续走势再度证明情况并无实质变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CNN分析指出，<strong>特朗普持续发出此类信号，或源于判断失误，或为稳定金融市场而有意为之，亦或试图通过反复表态将其“自我实现”。但无论动机如何，这一模式已严重侵蚀相关声明的市场信号价值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对依赖地缘风险溢价定价的大宗商品及能源市场而言，单一政治表态已难以构成可靠的交易依据。在协议实质性落地之前，市场有充分理由对“即将达成”类口头声明维持较高的预期折扣。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>37次“即将达成”！特朗普不断预告伊朗协议，却一次次落空</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n37次“即将达成”！特朗普不断预告伊朗协议，却一次次落空\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-09 19:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>37次“即将达成”协议，0次落地。特朗普6月9日再称美伊谈判‘两到三天内’敲定，但自3月以来其乐观表态已导致市场敏感性下降。分析人士指出，此类口头信号的可信度已严重受损。大宗商品投资者在评估“即将达成”类声明时，宜维持较高的预期折扣系数。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当地时间6月9日，特朗普再度表示，美伊谈判已进入“最后关头”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据新华社，特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。<strong>当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，据媒体统计，过去两个多月间，<strong>特朗普已至少37次公开释放类似乐观信号</strong>。自4月7日宣布停火以来，其措辞从“非常接近协议”到“伊朗愿给一切”不断升级，<strong>但始终未见实质性成果落地</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，<strong>此类反复出现的表态模式正削弱其市场参考价值</strong>。无论出于稳定金融市场考量，还是制造舆论压力推动谈判，缺乏具体进展支撑的口头信号，已引发投资者系统性降低敏感度。</p><h2 id=\"id_2290830803\" style=\"text-align: left;\">37次“即将达成”：一份未能落地的表态时间线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据CNN统计，自3月23日以来，<strong>特朗普已至少37次公开表示美伊协议“即将达成”或伊朗“迫切希望谈判”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">时间线显示，这一模式始于停火之前。3月23日，特朗普称双方已就“几乎所有要点”达成共识，但伊朗随即否认存在任何谈判。此后其措辞逐步升级：3月25日称伊朗“非常想达成协议”，3月26日称伊朗“在乞求达成协议”，3月29日则称“我确实预见到伊朗协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4月7日宣布停火后，<strong>特朗普将原定两周的谈判窗口描述为协议“最终确定”所需时间，但两周后协议并未落地</strong>。此后，他在4月15日、17日前后多次重申协议“非常接近”，4月30日又称伊朗“渴望达成协议”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">进入5月，表态节奏未见放缓。5月18日，他以中东国家请求为由，将军事打击推迟“两三天”，理由是各方“认为非常接近达成协议”。5月23日，他表示协议“基本谈完，等待最终确认”，并称将“很快”宣布。5月28日，他在访谈中再次表示“接近一项非常好的协议”。</p><h2 id=\"id_3129771225\" style=\"text-align: left;\">信号失灵：反复口头表态侵蚀市场参考价值</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特朗普本人在5月18日罕见承认此前预测落空：“我们曾有过几段时期，以为相当接近达成协议，但最终没有成功。”尽管他补充称“这次有些不同”，但后续走势再度证明情况并无实质变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CNN分析指出，<strong>特朗普持续发出此类信号，或源于判断失误，或为稳定金融市场而有意为之，亦或试图通过反复表态将其“自我实现”。但无论动机如何，这一模式已严重侵蚀相关声明的市场信号价值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对依赖地缘风险溢价定价的大宗商品及能源市场而言，单一政治表态已难以构成可靠的交易依据。在协议实质性落地之前，市场有充分理由对“即将达成”类口头声明维持较高的预期折扣。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774230","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642464134","content_text":"37次“即将达成”协议，0次落地。特朗普6月9日再称美伊谈判‘两到三天内’敲定，但自3月以来其乐观表态已导致市场敏感性下降。分析人士指出，此类口头信号的可信度已严重受损。大宗商品投资者在评估“即将达成”类声明时，宜维持较高的预期折扣系数。当地时间6月9日，特朗普再度表示，美伊谈判已进入“最后关头”。据新华社，特朗普9日在纽约肯尼迪国际机场接受记者采访时说，“我们正处在最后关头，将达成一份非常、非常棒的协议”。当被问及谈判还需耗时多久，特朗普回答：“两到三天。”然而，据媒体统计，过去两个多月间，特朗普已至少37次公开释放类似乐观信号。自4月7日宣布停火以来，其措辞从“非常接近协议”到“伊朗愿给一切”不断升级，但始终未见实质性成果落地。分析人士认为，此类反复出现的表态模式正削弱其市场参考价值。无论出于稳定金融市场考量，还是制造舆论压力推动谈判，缺乏具体进展支撑的口头信号，已引发投资者系统性降低敏感度。37次“即将达成”：一份未能落地的表态时间线据CNN统计，自3月23日以来，特朗普已至少37次公开表示美伊协议“即将达成”或伊朗“迫切希望谈判”。时间线显示，这一模式始于停火之前。3月23日，特朗普称双方已就“几乎所有要点”达成共识，但伊朗随即否认存在任何谈判。此后其措辞逐步升级：3月25日称伊朗“非常想达成协议”，3月26日称伊朗“在乞求达成协议”，3月29日则称“我确实预见到伊朗协议”。4月7日宣布停火后，特朗普将原定两周的谈判窗口描述为协议“最终确定”所需时间，但两周后协议并未落地。此后，他在4月15日、17日前后多次重申协议“非常接近”，4月30日又称伊朗“渴望达成协议”。进入5月，表态节奏未见放缓。5月18日，他以中东国家请求为由，将军事打击推迟“两三天”，理由是各方“认为非常接近达成协议”。5月23日，他表示协议“基本谈完，等待最终确认”，并称将“很快”宣布。5月28日，他在访谈中再次表示“接近一项非常好的协议”。信号失灵：反复口头表态侵蚀市场参考价值特朗普本人在5月18日罕见承认此前预测落空：“我们曾有过几段时期，以为相当接近达成协议，但最终没有成功。”尽管他补充称“这次有些不同”，但后续走势再度证明情况并无实质变化。CNN分析指出，特朗普持续发出此类信号，或源于判断失误，或为稳定金融市场而有意为之，亦或试图通过反复表态将其“自我实现”。但无论动机如何，这一模式已严重侵蚀相关声明的市场信号价值。对依赖地缘风险溢价定价的大宗商品及能源市场而言，单一政治表态已难以构成可靠的交易依据。在协议实质性落地之前，市场有充分理由对“即将达成”类口头声明维持较高的预期折扣。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572551787489648,"gmtCreate":1780805551001,"gmtModify":1780806795343,"author":{"id":"3567595867321306","authorId":"3567595867321306","name":"LarryLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa302a201e5a4ddf627eb5348aa2169","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567595867321306","authorIdStr":"3567595867321306"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街这么说的目的就是让你在低位把筹码交出去，你们交不交？不交是吧！继续砸盘！再砸百分之10！","listText":"华尔街这么说的目的就是让你在低位把筹码交出去，你们交不交？不交是吧！继续砸盘！再砸百分之10！","text":"华尔街这么说的目的就是让你在低位把筹码交出去，你们交不交？不交是吧！继续砸盘！再砸百分之10！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572551787489648","repostId":"2641178949","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2641178949","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1780801062,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2641178949?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-07 10:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"债券巨头买入债券，为AI泡沫破裂做准备","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641178949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"双线资本基金经理Robert Cohen认为，债券价格和估值虽然目前尚未过热，但随着科技公司持续向AI倾注巨资，未来数月或数年内无疑将达到泡沫水平，投资者需要寻找那些通过结构性安排或强大资产负债表就能存活的标的。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>信用债巨头双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）和橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）正在为AI泡沫可能的破裂提前布局——买入能在深度信贷周期中存活的债券。</p>\n<p>"AI泡沫的概率有多大？我会说大概是100%。"双线资本基金经理Robert Cohen周三在彭博全球信用债论坛上说。</p>\n<h2>涌入市场的巨量AI债务</h2>\n<p>AI基础设施建设引发的举债规模正在迅速膨胀。</p>\n<p>据巴克莱5月21日报告，美国超大规模科技公司今年在全球发行的无担保债券已超1550亿美元，较去年全年发行总量高出逾45%。彭博智库预测，未来五年企业用于AI的资本开支将达约5万亿美元，其中很大一部分来自债务融资。</p>\n<p>超级科技公司之外的融资同样火热。仅本周，数据中心公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUT\">Hut 8</a>就发行了约40亿美元投资级债券为德克萨斯州项目融资，这笔与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>相关的债券获得了四倍超额认购；一笔为AI模型开发商Anthropic采购芯片的360亿美元债券发售也接近完成。</p>\n<h2>"什么样的信用债能挺过深度周期"</h2>\n<p>债务洪流之下，没有哪个资金管理人能视而不见。但Cohen认为，债券价格和估值虽然目前尚未过热，但随着科技公司持续向AI倾注巨资，未来数月或数年内无疑将达到泡沫水平。</p>\n<p>投资AI相关债务的核心难题在于：许多在售债券要数十年后才到期，届时当前技术可能已经过时。数据中心尤其面临过度建设风险——建设周期漫长，而大量项目正在同时上马。</p>\n<p>"你必须思考什么样的信用债能够挺过一个深度周期，"Cohen说，"你需要的是那些通过结构性安排或强大资产负债表就能存活的标的。"</p>\n<p>Cohen将信用泡沫定义为：投资者向那些需要实际增长才能偿付债务的公司提供融资。历史上的技术繁荣，往往正是以这种方式走向泡沫。</p>\n<h2>买，但要挑着买</h2>\n<p>橡树资本的策略如出一辙——即便尚无法确知泡沫何时到来，该公司已按照未来可能出现投机过度的前提进行投资布局。</p>\n<p>橡树资本私人信贷联席投资组合经理Christina Lee表示，数据中心融资是一个庞大且仍在增长的机会，"但我们必须精挑细选，因为确实还不清楚这场竞争中谁会胜出、谁会出局。"</p>\n<p>橡树资本联合创始人Howard Marks去年12月撰文警示："没有人应该在不承认面临毁灭风险的前提下全仓押注。但同样，没有人应该完全袖手旁观，而错过一次伟大的技术跃迁。"</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>投资管理公司（PIMCO）集团首席投资官Dan Ivascyn则更为审慎。他表示AI不是一个适合超配的板块，但正因融资需求巨大，"你可以在整体敞口上保持防御，同时释放巨大的价值。"他还警告，一旦出现违约，损失幅度可能超出投资者以往的经验。随着大量债务持续涌入，PIMCO希望凭借自身体量捕捉其中真正有吸引力的机会。</p>\n<p>桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio本周在彭博电视上指出，大规模技术革命在历史上总是伴随投机过度。企业面临的困境是："要么砸重金抢市场份额，不管是否花多了；要么花得不够，把市场份额拱手让人。"</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>债券巨头买入债券，为AI泡沫破裂做准备</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n债券巨头买入债券，为AI泡沫破裂做准备\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-07 10:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>信用债巨头双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）和橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）正在为AI泡沫可能的破裂提前布局——买入能在深度信贷周期中存活的债券。</p>\n<p>"AI泡沫的概率有多大？我会说大概是100%。"双线资本基金经理Robert Cohen周三在彭博全球信用债论坛上说。</p>\n<h2>涌入市场的巨量AI债务</h2>\n<p>AI基础设施建设引发的举债规模正在迅速膨胀。</p>\n<p>据巴克莱5月21日报告，美国超大规模科技公司今年在全球发行的无担保债券已超1550亿美元，较去年全年发行总量高出逾45%。彭博智库预测，未来五年企业用于AI的资本开支将达约5万亿美元，其中很大一部分来自债务融资。</p>\n<p>超级科技公司之外的融资同样火热。仅本周，数据中心公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUT\">Hut 8</a>就发行了约40亿美元投资级债券为德克萨斯州项目融资，这笔与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>相关的债券获得了四倍超额认购；一笔为AI模型开发商Anthropic采购芯片的360亿美元债券发售也接近完成。</p>\n<h2>"什么样的信用债能挺过深度周期"</h2>\n<p>债务洪流之下，没有哪个资金管理人能视而不见。但Cohen认为，债券价格和估值虽然目前尚未过热，但随着科技公司持续向AI倾注巨资，未来数月或数年内无疑将达到泡沫水平。</p>\n<p>投资AI相关债务的核心难题在于：许多在售债券要数十年后才到期，届时当前技术可能已经过时。数据中心尤其面临过度建设风险——建设周期漫长，而大量项目正在同时上马。</p>\n<p>"你必须思考什么样的信用债能够挺过一个深度周期，"Cohen说，"你需要的是那些通过结构性安排或强大资产负债表就能存活的标的。"</p>\n<p>Cohen将信用泡沫定义为：投资者向那些需要实际增长才能偿付债务的公司提供融资。历史上的技术繁荣，往往正是以这种方式走向泡沫。</p>\n<h2>买，但要挑着买</h2>\n<p>橡树资本的策略如出一辙——即便尚无法确知泡沫何时到来，该公司已按照未来可能出现投机过度的前提进行投资布局。</p>\n<p>橡树资本私人信贷联席投资组合经理Christina Lee表示，数据中心融资是一个庞大且仍在增长的机会，"但我们必须精挑细选，因为确实还不清楚这场竞争中谁会胜出、谁会出局。"</p>\n<p>橡树资本联合创始人Howard Marks去年12月撰文警示："没有人应该在不承认面临毁灭风险的前提下全仓押注。但同样，没有人应该完全袖手旁观，而错过一次伟大的技术跃迁。"</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>投资管理公司（PIMCO）集团首席投资官Dan Ivascyn则更为审慎。他表示AI不是一个适合超配的板块，但正因融资需求巨大，"你可以在整体敞口上保持防御，同时释放巨大的价值。"他还警告，一旦出现违约，损失幅度可能超出投资者以往的经验。随着大量债务持续涌入，PIMCO希望凭借自身体量捕捉其中真正有吸引力的机会。</p>\n<p>桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio本周在彭博电视上指出，大规模技术革命在历史上总是伴随投机过度。企业面临的困境是："要么砸重金抢市场份额，不管是否花多了；要么花得不够，把市场份额拱手让人。"</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ece06f0d5f47ced3643ec6cfcc433e","relate_stocks":{"DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income 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ETN","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774027","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2641178949","content_text":"信用债巨头双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）和橡树资本（Oaktree Capital）正在为AI泡沫可能的破裂提前布局——买入能在深度信贷周期中存活的债券。\n\"AI泡沫的概率有多大？我会说大概是100%。\"双线资本基金经理Robert Cohen周三在彭博全球信用债论坛上说。\n涌入市场的巨量AI债务\nAI基础设施建设引发的举债规模正在迅速膨胀。\n据巴克莱5月21日报告，美国超大规模科技公司今年在全球发行的无担保债券已超1550亿美元，较去年全年发行总量高出逾45%。彭博智库预测，未来五年企业用于AI的资本开支将达约5万亿美元，其中很大一部分来自债务融资。\n超级科技公司之外的融资同样火热。仅本周，数据中心公司Hut 8就发行了约40亿美元投资级债券为德克萨斯州项目融资，这笔与英伟达相关的债券获得了四倍超额认购；一笔为AI模型开发商Anthropic采购芯片的360亿美元债券发售也接近完成。\n\"什么样的信用债能挺过深度周期\"\n债务洪流之下，没有哪个资金管理人能视而不见。但Cohen认为，债券价格和估值虽然目前尚未过热，但随着科技公司持续向AI倾注巨资，未来数月或数年内无疑将达到泡沫水平。\n投资AI相关债务的核心难题在于：许多在售债券要数十年后才到期，届时当前技术可能已经过时。数据中心尤其面临过度建设风险——建设周期漫长，而大量项目正在同时上马。\n\"你必须思考什么样的信用债能够挺过一个深度周期，\"Cohen说，\"你需要的是那些通过结构性安排或强大资产负债表就能存活的标的。\"\nCohen将信用泡沫定义为：投资者向那些需要实际增长才能偿付债务的公司提供融资。历史上的技术繁荣，往往正是以这种方式走向泡沫。\n买，但要挑着买\n橡树资本的策略如出一辙——即便尚无法确知泡沫何时到来，该公司已按照未来可能出现投机过度的前提进行投资布局。\n橡树资本私人信贷联席投资组合经理Christina Lee表示，数据中心融资是一个庞大且仍在增长的机会，\"但我们必须精挑细选，因为确实还不清楚这场竞争中谁会胜出、谁会出局。\"\n橡树资本联合创始人Howard Marks去年12月撰文警示：\"没有人应该在不承认面临毁灭风险的前提下全仓押注。但同样，没有人应该完全袖手旁观，而错过一次伟大的技术跃迁。\"\n太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）集团首席投资官Dan Ivascyn则更为审慎。他表示AI不是一个适合超配的板块，但正因融资需求巨大，\"你可以在整体敞口上保持防御，同时释放巨大的价值。\"他还警告，一旦出现违约，损失幅度可能超出投资者以往的经验。随着大量债务持续涌入，PIMCO希望凭借自身体量捕捉其中真正有吸引力的机会。\n桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio本周在彭博电视上指出，大规模技术革命在历史上总是伴随投机过度。企业面临的困境是：\"要么砸重金抢市场份额，不管是否花多了；要么花得不够，把市场份额拱手让人。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPXU":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":2,"AGIX":1.5,"BND":2,"TBT":2,"UDOW":0.6,"HYG":2,"VOO":0.6,"BNDW":1.5,"TMV":2,"VGIT":2,"GOVT":2,"SPYM":0.6,"TLH":2,"YSPY":0.6,"AIPO":1.5,"DXD":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"TLT":2,"SHV":2,"SPXS":0.6,".IXIC":2,"DMAX":0.6,"BOXX":2,"SHY":2,".DJI":2,".SPX":2,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SCHO":2,"DIA":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"EDV":2,"IVV":0.6,"ARTY":1.5,"TMF":2,"TLTW":2,"SPXL":0.6,"IEF":2,"AGG":2,"SGOV":2,"SPY":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"UBT":2,"VGLT":2,"VGSH":2,"HIBL":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"NQmain":2,"YMmain":2,"MMAX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572283475583536,"gmtCreate":1780740232095,"gmtModify":1780744309526,"author":{"id":"3567595867321306","authorId":"3567595867321306","name":"LarryLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa302a201e5a4ddf627eb5348aa2169","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567595867321306","authorIdStr":"3567595867321306"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街这帮，来回收割！","listText":"华尔街这帮，来回收割！","text":"华尔街这帮，来回收割！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572283475583536","repostId":"2641112596","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2641112596","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1780714169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2641112596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-06 10:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641112596","media":"智通财经","summary":"美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美股三大指数周五集体重挫。道琼斯指数跌1.35%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数跌2.64%，创2025年10月以来最大单日跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数跌4.18%，跌幅超1100点，创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局周五公布的数据显示，5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，超过所有经济学家预期，4月增幅则从此前公布的11.5万人大幅上修至17.9万人，这使得美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平;失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">就业强劲叠加能源价格高企，可能进一步加大美联储考虑加息以遏制通胀的压力。多位美联储官员已经表示，在美国通胀指标持续高于2%目标且偏离程度不断扩大的情况下，他们无法支持降息。近几周以来，这些官员对于进一步加息的态度也开始变得更加开放。利率掉期市场显示，交易员预计美联储将在12月政策会议前加息25个基点，并认为10月加息的概率约为60%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>集团美洲股票执行服务主管约翰·弗拉德认为，周五美股的回调为投资者提供了增持仓位的机会，而非撤退的理由。他认为，标普500指数今年达到8000点存在一条清晰的上行路径。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，美股周五的下跌很可能是由投资者在周末前获利了结、以及市场预期首次公开募股(IPO)将带来更多股票供给所推动。而历史经验表明，这类抛售往往会为买入者带来回报。他表示：“今年可供买入的回调并不多。从历史上看，在标普500指数回调2%时买入往往能够获得回报，我认为现在依然如此。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，投资者目前最常提及的问题包括通胀、涉及伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势以及私募信贷市场风险。但他认为，这些担忧更像是一堵健康的“忧虑之墙”，而非市场信心恶化的证据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他认为，更广泛的市场背景仍然具有支撑作用。尽管标普500指数今年已经创下24次历史新高，但高盛的专有市场情绪指标——该指标综合了对冲基金、共同基金、散户投资者以及海外投资者的仓位情况——目前仍接近中性水平。他表示：“尽管从指数层面来看，股市已经接近历史高点，但市场上依然存在大量担忧情绪。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19f1579e2b449c78d17a47c5850bbc92\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从机构投资者角度来看，弗拉德认为当前仓位管理依然较为克制，而非过度亢奋。高盛主经纪业务数据显示，对冲基金总敞口(即多头与空头仓位之和)已接近历史最高水平。投资者目前仍持有大量人工智能(AI)和科技股多头仓位，同时也在股票指数和交易所交易基金(ETF)等宏观工具上维持大规模空头头寸。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示：“这告诉我，市场对于未来走势依然保持着健康的怀疑态度。”他补充称，如果对冲基金未来开始回补这些对冲仓位，可能会推动股市开启下一轮上涨行情。与此同时，共同基金的现金持有比例仍接近长期平均水平，意味着投资者手中依然拥有可投入股市的资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于新股发行，弗拉德表示，机构投资者的需求强度是他职业生涯中所见最强之一。他提到了有关<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>(META.US)正考虑进行大规模股票发行的报道。此前，本周早些时候，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>(GOOGL.US)完成了一笔备受关注的大型交易。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">弗拉德表示，大型科技公司进行大规模股权融资反映的是市场需求健康，而非投机泡沫。他表示：“对于这些股票发行项目的需求，从未像现在这样强劲。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在散户投资者方面，弗拉德预计，只要就业市场保持稳健，买盘活动就将继续保持韧性。高盛数据显示，自2020年3月疫情最严重时期以来，美国散户投资者从未连续超过一周成为美国股票市场的净卖家。他表示：“除非我们开始看到就业岗位大规模流失，否则散户买盘很可能会继续成为市场中一个稳定而健康的力量。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在弗拉德看来，最有可能挑战其乐观预期的因素，是美国企业整体盈利表现出现广泛性失望。不过目前，他并未看到这样的迹象。他指出：“如果标普500指数成分股整体盈利表现令人失望，那将是一个非常值得担忧的信号。但我们目前还没有看到任何这方面的证据。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着一系列备受瞩目的IPO即将到来——其中包括SpaceX和Anthropic的上市计划，弗拉德表示，目前的新股发行管道更符合基本面逻辑，而非市场见顶信号。他还预计，企业股票回购需求将抵消IPO带来的新增供给。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">至于短期战术性风险，弗拉德指出，在经历了强劲的一年之后，商品交易顾问(CTA)以及波动率控制基金等系统化投资者目前已经持有相对较高比例的标普500指数敞口。他表示，如果未来连续多个交易日出现股市走弱，这类投资者可能转而成为卖方。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过截至目前，弗拉德依然坚定看多市场。他表示：“我们认为这些回调都是买入机会。今年标普500指数迈向8000点甚至更高水平，存在一条清晰的路径。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股遭遇“黑色星期五”！高盛却逆势发声：回调提供买入良机 标普500剑指8000点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-06 10:49 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1451063.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股三大指数周五集体重挫。道琼斯指数跌1.35%;标普500指数跌2.64%，创2025年10月以来最大单日跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数跌4.18%，跌幅超1100点，创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。美国劳工统计局...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1451063.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a33c23f8e5a366189f532d19af270ed","relate_stocks":{"LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237957902.USD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","TSPY":"TappAlpha SPY Growth & Daily Income ETF","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND 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Global Income A (div) SGD","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1451063.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2641112596","content_text":"美股三大指数周五集体重挫。道琼斯指数跌1.35%;标普500指数跌2.64%，创2025年10月以来最大单日跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数跌4.18%，跌幅超1100点，创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。美股上演“黑色星期五”的主要原因在于，强劲的就业数据提振了市场对美联储可能在更长时间内维持限制性货币政策、乃至加息的预期，而高利率环境是股市面临的主要压力源，尤其是对于成长股和科技股而言。美国劳工统计局周五公布的数据显示，5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人，超过所有经济学家预期，4月增幅则从此前公布的11.5万人大幅上修至17.9万人，这使得美国过去三个月的就业增幅达到两年多以来最强水平;失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%。就业强劲叠加能源价格高企，可能进一步加大美联储考虑加息以遏制通胀的压力。多位美联储官员已经表示，在美国通胀指标持续高于2%目标且偏离程度不断扩大的情况下，他们无法支持降息。近几周以来，这些官员对于进一步加息的态度也开始变得更加开放。利率掉期市场显示，交易员预计美联储将在12月政策会议前加息25个基点，并认为10月加息的概率约为60%。不过，高盛集团美洲股票执行服务主管约翰·弗拉德认为，周五美股的回调为投资者提供了增持仓位的机会，而非撤退的理由。他认为，标普500指数今年达到8000点存在一条清晰的上行路径。弗拉德表示，美股周五的下跌很可能是由投资者在周末前获利了结、以及市场预期首次公开募股(IPO)将带来更多股票供给所推动。而历史经验表明，这类抛售往往会为买入者带来回报。他表示：“今年可供买入的回调并不多。从历史上看，在标普500指数回调2%时买入往往能够获得回报，我认为现在依然如此。”弗拉德表示，投资者目前最常提及的问题包括通胀、涉及伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势以及私募信贷市场风险。但他认为，这些担忧更像是一堵健康的“忧虑之墙”，而非市场信心恶化的证据。他认为，更广泛的市场背景仍然具有支撑作用。尽管标普500指数今年已经创下24次历史新高，但高盛的专有市场情绪指标——该指标综合了对冲基金、共同基金、散户投资者以及海外投资者的仓位情况——目前仍接近中性水平。他表示：“尽管从指数层面来看，股市已经接近历史高点，但市场上依然存在大量担忧情绪。”从机构投资者角度来看，弗拉德认为当前仓位管理依然较为克制，而非过度亢奋。高盛主经纪业务数据显示，对冲基金总敞口(即多头与空头仓位之和)已接近历史最高水平。投资者目前仍持有大量人工智能(AI)和科技股多头仓位，同时也在股票指数和交易所交易基金(ETF)等宏观工具上维持大规模空头头寸。弗拉德表示：“这告诉我，市场对于未来走势依然保持着健康的怀疑态度。”他补充称，如果对冲基金未来开始回补这些对冲仓位，可能会推动股市开启下一轮上涨行情。与此同时，共同基金的现金持有比例仍接近长期平均水平，意味着投资者手中依然拥有可投入股市的资金。对于新股发行，弗拉德表示，机构投资者的需求强度是他职业生涯中所见最强之一。他提到了有关Meta Platforms(META.US)正考虑进行大规模股票发行的报道。此前，本周早些时候，谷歌(GOOGL.US)完成了一笔备受关注的大型交易。弗拉德表示，大型科技公司进行大规模股权融资反映的是市场需求健康，而非投机泡沫。他表示：“对于这些股票发行项目的需求，从未像现在这样强劲。”在散户投资者方面，弗拉德预计，只要就业市场保持稳健，买盘活动就将继续保持韧性。高盛数据显示，自2020年3月疫情最严重时期以来，美国散户投资者从未连续超过一周成为美国股票市场的净卖家。他表示：“除非我们开始看到就业岗位大规模流失，否则散户买盘很可能会继续成为市场中一个稳定而健康的力量。”在弗拉德看来，最有可能挑战其乐观预期的因素，是美国企业整体盈利表现出现广泛性失望。不过目前，他并未看到这样的迹象。他指出：“如果标普500指数成分股整体盈利表现令人失望，那将是一个非常值得担忧的信号。但我们目前还没有看到任何这方面的证据。”随着一系列备受瞩目的IPO即将到来——其中包括SpaceX和Anthropic的上市计划，弗拉德表示，目前的新股发行管道更符合基本面逻辑，而非市场见顶信号。他还预计，企业股票回购需求将抵消IPO带来的新增供给。至于短期战术性风险，弗拉德指出，在经历了强劲的一年之后，商品交易顾问(CTA)以及波动率控制基金等系统化投资者目前已经持有相对较高比例的标普500指数敞口。他表示，如果未来连续多个交易日出现股市走弱，这类投资者可能转而成为卖方。不过截至目前，弗拉德依然坚定看多市场。他表示：“我们认为这些回调都是买入机会。今年标普500指数迈向8000点甚至更高水平，存在一条清晰的路径。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIA":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"GPIX":0.6,"SPYV":0.6,".DJI":2,"RSPU":0.6,"VEU":0.6,"JEPI":0.6,"DBSC":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"TQQQ":2,"UVIX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPUS":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"RSPN":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"ALLW":0.6,"VIXmain":2,"SPDN":0.6,"HIBS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"XDTE":0.6,"SPYB":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"GSX":0.6,"SFY":0.6,"TSPY":0.6,".IXIC":2,"VIXY":2,"VTV":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"ITOT":0.6,"NQmain":2,"XYLD":0.6,"ESmain":2,"NOBL":0.6,"RSPA":0.6,"SPMO":0.6,"IVE":0.6,"SPLV":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"XLG":0.6,"VV":0.6,"VTI":0.6,"ACWI":0.6,"IJR":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPHQ":0.6,"VXX":2,"MOAT":0.6,"SPYG":0.6,"SQQQ":2,"VBK":0.6,"IJH":0.6,"SCHB":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"RSP":0.6,"VIX":2,"SVIX":0.6,"SVXY":0.6,"QQQ":2,"DDM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVW":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"ETFT":0.6,"BMAY":0.6,"SPGP":0.6,"YMmain":2,"SPYQ":0.6,".SPX":2,"SCHX":0.6,"SPHD":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"SPYD":0.6,"GSLC":0.6,"IVV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
