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2021-12-31

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2021-12-30

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2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大型股市场非常好...但其他的就不多了</blockquote>

2021-12-29

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2021-12-26

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2021-12-25

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Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，另一些则持谨慎态度</blockquote>

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2021-11-17

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Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote>

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up","listText":"Nice up","text":"Nice up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692898420","repostId":"2195468434","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692346597,"gmtCreate":1640860150036,"gmtModify":1640860150288,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Testing up","listText":"Testing up","text":"Testing up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692346597","repostId":"1190455875","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190455875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640849654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190455875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 15:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大型股市场非常好...但其他的就不多了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190455875","media":"Realmoney","summary":"We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&amp;P 500 and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>我们很快就会看到许多关于股市度过了美好一年的新闻报道。这些故事将引用标普500和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100，道琼斯增长20%。股票如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL)上涨了约40%，将作为今年表现良好的例子。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.</p><p><blockquote>对于与大盘股和高级指数表现相关的投资组合来说，这种回报是个好消息。许多退休和401(k)账户的分配选项从这种强劲的表现中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p>However, the big story this year isn&#39;t how well the indexes have performed --  it&#39;s how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.</p><p><blockquote>然而，今年的大新闻不是指数的表现有多好，而是它们在多大程度上未能反映大盘的真实情况。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10只个股在标普500权重30%左右，25只个股接近一半。这些股票表现良好，因此指数表现也很好。</blockquote></p><p>The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.</p><p><blockquote>这些指数本质上是大盘股的特定资产类别，该资产类别今年表现非常好。然而，如果我们深入挖掘，情况就不那么吸引人了。</blockquote></p><p>If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>, close to 85% were trailing the S&amp;P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> stated, &#34;if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&amp;P 500.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>如果你只看交易价格低于20美元的股票，那么50%的股票较高点下跌了20%或更多。63%低于10美元的股票下跌20%或更多。—James DePorre(@RevShark)2021年12月29日了解指数如何夸大大盘表现的最简单方法之一是查看美国股票产生的回报基金。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">街道</a>截至11月底，近85%的股票落后于标普500，而12月份二级股票再次遭受重创时，这一比例可能有所下降。在星期二<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>表示，“如果你把高盛对冲基金VIP篮子今年迄今为止的总回报率提高两倍，你仍然达不到标普500的水平。”</blockquote></p><p>Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.</p><p><blockquote>大盘股以外的股票市场表现有多糟糕的另一个例子是，近60%的股票价格低于200天简单移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>普遍接受的熊市定义是股票比高点低20%。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。这占所有股票的42.9%，但这些指数目前接近历史高点。</blockquote></p><p>There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>有大量统计数据说明了2021年市场的两级性质，但它们很少受到关注，因为指数是简单的头条新闻，并且对大多数金融媒体和传统华尔街都有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>普遍接受的熊市定义是股票比高点低20%。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。</blockquote></p><p>For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> (GME) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数股票来说，市场在二月份见顶，并在过去九个月中陷入熊市。社交媒体交易的狂热标志着2月份的顶部，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>（GME）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>(AMC)被推高，部分原因是空头挤压以及Reddit和Discord聊天室上的协调交易者。</blockquote></p><p>These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with &#34;diamond hands&#34; eventually gave up.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易员继续积极推动各种交易，大多是小盘股和交易清淡的股票，但创造持续走势的能力很快减弱，那些一直在用“钻石手”推动持有股票的人最终放弃了。</blockquote></p><p>This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态以及许多使用刺激资金进行交易的新的和小型交易者的损失是伤害许多二级股票和小盘股的部分原因，但今年的另一个主要问题是特殊目的收购公司或SPAC的涌入。</blockquote></p><p>In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO&#39;ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，超过600家SPAC首次公开募股，筹集了超过1600亿美元的资本。其中许多SPAC的基本面并不出色，但它们吸引了受到10美元赎回保护的投机者。如果可以在某个时候以相同的价格赎回，那么以10美元的价格赞助和出售SPAC是很容易的。</blockquote></p><p>A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>大量SPAC的交易价格处于低点，并从其他投机行业吸收了资金。</blockquote></p><p>There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.</p><p><blockquote>仍有超过570家SPAC在寻求交易，其中约90家已经被清算。即使SPAC找到了交易，随着10美元的赎回价格消失，以及那些持有PIPE股票的人试图收回一些资本，许多公司的交易也非常糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>SPAC在这一年吸收了大量资本，其糟糕的表现是许多小型股票表现不佳的重要原因。不仅有大量SPAC处于低点交易，而且它们还从其他投机行业吸收了资金。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.</p><p><blockquote>生物技术和大麻是2021年因流动性不足而遭受重创的两个行业。两者的交易价格都接近低点，并且今年都出现了大幅亏损。总体而言，约有2,700只股票，占所有股票的32%，距离12个月低点不到10%。</blockquote></p><p>Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.</p><p><blockquote>请为有关今年市场表现如何的故事做好准备，但事实是有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>表现非常好的资产类别，那就是巨型股。2021年大盘表现非常艰难，但除非你做一些挖掘，否则你不会知道。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大型股市场非常好...但其他的就不多了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Year in Review: A Very Good Market for Mega-Cap Stocks... But Not Much Else<blockquote>2021年回顾：大型股市场非常好...但其他的就不多了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Realmoney</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&amp;P 500 and the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>我们很快就会看到许多关于股市度过了美好一年的新闻报道。这些故事将引用标普500和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100，道琼斯增长20%。股票如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL)上涨了约40%，将作为今年表现良好的例子。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.</p><p><blockquote>对于与大盘股和高级指数表现相关的投资组合来说，这种回报是个好消息。许多退休和401(k)账户的分配选项从这种强劲的表现中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p>However, the big story this year isn&#39;t how well the indexes have performed --  it&#39;s how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.</p><p><blockquote>然而，今年的大新闻不是指数的表现有多好，而是它们在多大程度上未能反映大盘的真实情况。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10只个股在标普500权重30%左右，25只个股接近一半。这些股票表现良好，因此指数表现也很好。</blockquote></p><p>The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.</p><p><blockquote>这些指数本质上是大盘股的特定资产类别，该资产类别今年表现非常好。然而，如果我们深入挖掘，情况就不那么吸引人了。</blockquote></p><p>If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>, close to 85% were trailing the S&amp;P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> stated, &#34;if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&amp;P 500.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>如果你只看交易价格低于20美元的股票，那么50%的股票较高点下跌了20%或更多。63%低于10美元的股票下跌20%或更多。—James DePorre(@RevShark)2021年12月29日了解指数如何夸大大盘表现的最简单方法之一是查看美国股票产生的回报基金。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">街道</a>截至11月底，近85%的股票落后于标普500，而12月份二级股票再次遭受重创时，这一比例可能有所下降。在星期二<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>表示，“如果你把高盛对冲基金VIP篮子今年迄今为止的总回报率提高两倍，你仍然达不到标普500的水平。”</blockquote></p><p>Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.</p><p><blockquote>大盘股以外的股票市场表现有多糟糕的另一个例子是，近60%的股票价格低于200天简单移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>普遍接受的熊市定义是股票比高点低20%。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。这占所有股票的42.9%，但这些指数目前接近历史高点。</blockquote></p><p>There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>有大量统计数据说明了2021年市场的两级性质，但它们很少受到关注，因为指数是简单的头条新闻，并且对大多数金融媒体和传统华尔街都有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>普遍接受的熊市定义是股票比高点低20%。目前，总共8,433只股票中有3,616只处于熊市。</blockquote></p><p>For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a> (GME) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.</p><p><blockquote>对于大多数股票来说，市场在二月份见顶，并在过去九个月中陷入熊市。社交媒体交易的狂热标志着2月份的顶部，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>（GME）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>(AMC)被推高，部分原因是空头挤压以及Reddit和Discord聊天室上的协调交易者。</blockquote></p><p>These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with &#34;diamond hands&#34; eventually gave up.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易员继续积极推动各种交易，大多是小盘股和交易清淡的股票，但创造持续走势的能力很快减弱，那些一直在用“钻石手”推动持有股票的人最终放弃了。</blockquote></p><p>This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态以及许多使用刺激资金进行交易的新的和小型交易者的损失是伤害许多二级股票和小盘股的部分原因，但今年的另一个主要问题是特殊目的收购公司或SPAC的涌入。</blockquote></p><p>In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO&#39;ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，超过600家SPAC首次公开募股，筹集了超过1600亿美元的资本。其中许多SPAC的基本面并不出色，但它们吸引了受到10美元赎回保护的投机者。如果可以在某个时候以相同的价格赎回，那么以10美元的价格赞助和出售SPAC是很容易的。</blockquote></p><p>A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>大量SPAC的交易价格处于低点，并从其他投机行业吸收了资金。</blockquote></p><p>There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.</p><p><blockquote>仍有超过570家SPAC在寻求交易，其中约90家已经被清算。即使SPAC找到了交易，随着10美元的赎回价格消失，以及那些持有PIPE股票的人试图收回一些资本，许多公司的交易也非常糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.</p><p><blockquote>SPAC在这一年吸收了大量资本，其糟糕的表现是许多小型股票表现不佳的重要原因。不仅有大量SPAC处于低点交易，而且它们还从其他投机行业吸收了资金。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.</p><p><blockquote>生物技术和大麻是2021年因流动性不足而遭受重创的两个行业。两者的交易价格都接近低点，并且今年都出现了大幅亏损。总体而言，约有2,700只股票，占所有股票的32%，距离12个月低点不到10%。</blockquote></p><p>Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.</p><p><blockquote>请为有关今年市场表现如何的故事做好准备，但事实是有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>表现非常好的资产类别，那就是巨型股。2021年大盘表现非常艰难，但除非你做一些挖掘，否则你不会知道。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611\">Realmoney</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/markets/2021-market-in-review-a-very-good-year-for-mega-cap-stocks-but-not-much-else-15871611","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190455875","content_text":"We will soon be seeing numerous news stories about how the stock market had a fantastic year. These stories will cite a 30% gain in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 and a 20% gain in the DJIA. Stocks such as Apple (AAPL) , which is up around 40%, will be offered as examples of what a fine year it has been.These sorts of returns are great news for portfolios that are tied to the performance of big-caps and the senior indexes. Many retirement and 401(k) accounts have allocation options that benefited greatly from this strong performance.However, the big story this year isn't how well the indexes have performed --  it's how much they failed to reflect what was really going on in the broader market. Just 10 stocks are around 30% of the weight of the S&P 500, and 25 stocks are close to half. These stocks did well, and therefore the indexes did very well.The indexes are essentially a specific asset class of very large-cap stocks, and that asset class had a very good year. If we dig deeper, though, the picture is not quite as attractive.If you look only at stocks that are trading under $20 then 50% are down 20% or more from highs. 63% of stocks under $10 are down 20% or more.— James DePorre (@RevShark) December 29, 2021One of the easiest ways to see how the indexes have overstated the performance of the broader market is to look at returns produced by U.S. equity funds. According to TheStreet, close to 85% were trailing the S&P 500 as of the end of November, and that had probably declined in December when secondary stocks were hit hard once again. On Tuesday Goldman Sachs stated, \"if you take the year-to-date total return of the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund VIP basket and you triple it, you still fall short of the S&P 500.\"Another illustration of how poor the market has been for stocks other than mega-caps is that nearly 60% of all stocks are below their 200-day simple moving average of price.The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market. That is 42.9% of all stocks, yet the indexes are currently close to all-time highs.There are a tremendous number of stats that illustrate the two-tiered nature of the market in 2021, but they will garner little attention because the indexes are the easy headline and they appeal to most of the financial media and traditional Wall Street.The generally accepted definition of a bear market is when a stock is 20% below its highs. Currently, 3,616 stocks out of a total of 8,433 are in a bear market.For the majority of stocks, the market topped in February and has fallen into bear markets over the last nine months. A frenzy of social media trading marked the February top when stocks such as GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) were pushed higher due in part to short-squeezes as well as the coordinated traders on Reddit and in Discord chat rooms.These traders continued to aggressively push various trades, mostly in small-caps and thinly traded stocks, but the ability to create sustained movement quickly diminished, and those that had been promoting the holding of stocks with \"diamond hands\" eventually gave up.This dynamic and the loss of many newer and small traders who were using stimulus money to trade was part of what hurt many of the secondary stocks and small-caps, but another major issue this year was the flood of special purpose acquisition companies or SPACs.In 2021, more than 600 SPACs IPO'ed and raised over $160 billion in capital. Many of these SPACs had less than stellar fundamentals, but they attracted speculators that were protected by the $10 redemption. It was easy to sponsor and sell a SPAC at $10 if it could be redeemed at that same price at some point.A significant number of SPACs are trading at their lows and have taken capital from other speculative sectors.There are more than 570 SPACs still looking for a deal, and around 90 have already been liquidated. Even when a SPAC has found a deal, many have traded very poorly as the $10 redemption price disappears and those that are holding PIPE shares try to recover some capital.SPACs sucked up a tremendous amount of capital during the year, and their poor performance is a big part of why so many smaller stocks have acted poorly as well. Not only are there are a significant number of SPACs that are trading at their lows, but they have taken capital from other speculative sectors.Two sectors that have suffered greatly from this lack of liquidity in 2021 are biotechnology and cannabis. Both are trading close to their lows and have substantial losses for the year. Overall there are around 2,700 stocks or 32% of all stocks, within 10% of their 12-month lows.Be prepared for the stories about how well the market did this year, but the truth is that there is one asset class that did very well, and that is mega-cap stocks. The broader market had a very tough go of it in 2021, but you would not know it unless you did some digging.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696528173,"gmtCreate":1640737966793,"gmtModify":1640737967066,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696528173","repostId":"1186633322","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698481129,"gmtCreate":1640492569777,"gmtModify":1640492570036,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698481129","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698230902,"gmtCreate":1640400310268,"gmtModify":1640400310511,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698230902","repostId":"1195213621","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195213621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640324974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195213621?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，另一些则持谨慎态度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195213621","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempe","content":"<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p><p><blockquote>策略师们已经开始发表对明年股市的展望——在今年两位数的涨幅之后，许多人正在降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p><p><blockquote>在疫苗接种、放松封锁措施和广泛经济重新开放的背景下，截至12月22日收盘，标普500在2021年上涨了约25%。蓝筹股指数也较2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些专家的预测，标普500明年不太可能重复这种回报。随着市场参与者预计美联储至少会加息一次，重新开放带来的初步提振，以及货币和财政刺激的消退，本周期的轻松上涨可能已经成为过去。不止一位策略师认为，明年股市将至少从当前水平小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街顶级公司的一些策略师对明年股市的预测。</blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥本海默（5330）：“源于负面投射的噪音...不应掩盖进步的信号”</b></blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯(John Stoltzfus)对2022年股市持特别乐观的态度，预计随着经济增长依然强劲以及政策制定者采取行动解决对物价上涨的担忧，2022年股市将再次出现两位数涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer的展望预计，到2022年底，标普500将攀升至5,330。这将比12月22日收盘价上涨约13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>“我们建议投资者不要让近期的不确定性掩盖正在取得的进展，因为央行调整货币政策以满足高于预期的通胀，以及美国和全球经济应对当前COVID-19变种带来的重新开放挑战。供应链中断，”Stoltzfus在12月20日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为，最近一些交易员、怀疑论者、空头和恐慌者的负面预测所产生的噪音不应掩盖自2020年3月疫情在全球爆发以来社会和经济取得进展的信号。今天，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stoltzfus指出，该公司仍然跑赢大盘美国股票，同时“保持对发达市场和新兴市场的有意义的投资，因为预计美国国内经济从COVID-19紧急情况中复苏将有助于促进全球经济增长并导致全球经济增长”。经济扩张。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>就板块而言，奥本海默更青睐信息技术和周期性股票，而不是防御性板块。就风格而言，斯托尔茨福斯。至于投资风格，奥本海默表示，考虑到明年利率可能会上升但仍处于历史低位的背景，它更喜欢包括价值股和成长股的杠铃方法。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>瑞士信贷(5,200)：“基于对经济增长的强劲预测”，标普500目标上调</b></blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub对2022年股市越来越看好。</blockquote></p><p> The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将2022年标普500目标价从之前的5,000辆上调至5,200辆。更新后的预测还预测，该指数将再一年实现两位数升值，预计较12月22日收盘价上涨近11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布在一份报告中写道：“这种建设性的前景是基于对实际和名义经济增长的强劲预测、周期性群体的利润率进一步上升、回购增加以及尽管美联储收紧政策但仍有利的贴现率。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还将标普500 2022年每股总收益(EPS)预期从之前的230美元上调至235美元。此次修订假设华盛顿以外的公司税率上调明年不会生效。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对“强劲的GDP和通胀”以及持续的盈利势头的预期，瑞信跑赢大盘周期性行业，包括能源、材料、工业和非必需消费品（不包括互联网零售商）。该公司是市场重量级“TECH+”，即技术、互联网服务和互联网零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布写道：“如果收益率曲线进一步变平、名义增长减弱或盈利趋势逆转，我们将重新评估这一定位。”“由于2022年增长前景疲软，我们将金融和医疗保健行业的评级下调至跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根大通（目标5,050）：“2022年将是经济复苏和周期性资产表现强劲的一年”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通预计明年股市将继续上涨，尽管涨幅比过去几年要慢。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇表示，随着利率即将上升，美国和国际市场的周期性领域将成为表现最强劲的领域之一。</blockquote></p><p> The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预测，到2022年底，标普500将达到5,050点，较12月22日收盘水平上涨约7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p><p><blockquote>Kolanovic写道：“与我们2021年的预测相比，这意味着升值百分比较小；然而，我们确实认为国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将显着跑赢大盘，并带来2-3倍的高回报。”“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者，”他补充道。摩根大通预计，到明年年底，基准10年期国债收益率将攀升至2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> \"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点面临哪些风险？随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会注入波动性，”科拉诺维奇补充道。“2022年投资者还需要监控和管理其他风险。其中包括欧洲和亚洲地缘政治紧张局势加剧（特别是与乌克兰和伊朗有关）、迫在眉睫的能源危机、围绕高通胀的不确定性以及货币政策正常化的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DWS Group（目标：5,000）：“就市盈率而言，他们站在债券市场的肩膀上”</b></blockquote></p><p> DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团预计，在持续（如果放缓）的盈利和经济增长以及利率上升幅度有限的共同支撑下，明年标普500将进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团美洲首席投资官David Bianco在12月1日的媒体看涨期权上表示：“我们对风险资产的看法很简单，2022年应该是又一个好年景。”“随着通胀下降、通胀放缓，我们应该对名义利率和实际利率仅小幅攀升的想法感到满意。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计2022年底标普500将达到5,000点，较12月22日收盘水平增长近6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，长期利率仅小幅攀升，而对美国股市和全球股市PE（市盈率）至关重要的长期实际利率仍接近历史低点，”他补充道。“说到PE倍数，他们是站在债市的肩膀上的。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco预计，该标普500的市盈率（目前市盈率约为22倍）将持续到明年。该公司还预计标普500公司2022年每股收益(EPS)总额将约为228美元，比今年预计的213美元增长7%。这一盈利观点假设2022年美国不会提高企业税。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点是，股市、标准普尔指数的估值基本合理，但长期以来我们的偏好仍然是数字业务——技术、通信、一般成长型股票，以及对无形业务的偏好——我们认为这些类型的企业实际上确实提供了极好的通胀保护，”比安科说。“这已经不是20世纪70年代了。通常，我们认为抵御通胀的最好办法就是拥有最好的企业。寻找那些提高生产率而不是提高价格的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco还表示，该公司是医疗保健和金融行业的跑赢大盘，鉴于美联储明年可能至少加息一次，后者是利率上升的受益者。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行（目标：4,600）：寻找“通胀保值收益率”</b></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p><p><blockquote>美银的Savita Subramanian表示，到2022年底，标普500将略低于目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2022年展望预计该指数明年收于4,600点，较12月22日收盘价下跌2%。与此同时，盈利增长也将放缓，根据Subramanian的预测，标普500明年每股收益将仅增长6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p><p><blockquote>对更高贴现率的预期是这一前景的主要驱动因素之一，预计明年的更高利率环境将打压股票估值。此外，Subramanian补充说，随着利率上升，明年其他资产将争夺投资者的注意力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果现金收益率与标普500 1.3%的股息收益率相媲美，并且10年期收益率到2022年底达到2%，那么TINA（股票别无选择）论点会发生什么变化？股息增长需要因此，我们的主题是：通胀保值收益率，”萨勃拉曼尼亚说。“通胀保值收益率有利于能源、金融和房地产。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们回顾今天时，我们会说什么？可能与2000年后见类似的评论：高期望、华尔街股票配置增加约20[百分点]、零售/民主化市场、疯狂的IPO活动；美联储首次加息进入高估市场。并接受不可思议的事情：00年的股权成本为负，今天的实际利率为负。”她说。“但泡沫的最后一个迹象——企业/消费者杠杆率过高——已经转移到了政府身上。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p><p><blockquote>就青睐的资产类别而言，Subramanian表示，2022年优先考虑大宗商品，然后是现金，然后是股票，然后是债券。她还表示，她更喜欢小盘股而不是大盘股，价值股而不是成长股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛（目标：5,100）：“股市牛市将持续”</b></blockquote></p><p> Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin表示，企业利润将成为明年股市进一步上涨的驱动力。该公司预计，到2022年底，标普500将攀升至5,100点，较12月22日收盘价上涨近9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>一名交易员在纽约证券交易所工作时抬头看着电脑屏幕上的图表。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊（美国-标签：每日商业TPX图片）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>Kostin在一份报告中写道：“利润增长占了标普500 2021年的全部回报，并将继续推动2022年的收益。”“2022年标普500每股收益将增长8%至226美元，2023年将增长4%至236美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀预测，尽管投入成本压力和供应链挑战依然存在，但公司可能会继续扩大利润率，并补充说，他预计明年标普500公司的总利润率将再扩大40个基点，达到12.6%。尽管如此，他建议避免投资劳动力成本高的公司，并青睐高利润率的成长型股票，而不是低利润率或无利可图的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀表示，虽然经济复苏和企业利润的相应强劲可能会延续到明年，但明年的投资环境将发生变化，并给估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储将在7月开始加息，”科斯汀说。“实际利率将上升，巩固估值倍数的上限，并推动股市内的轮动。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，当前股市的其他方面将持续存在。实际利率虽然上升，但仍将为负，投资者的股票配置将继续创下历史新高，”他补充道。“与我们过去一年的预期相反，企业税率可能在2022年保持不变，并在2023年上升。企业盈利将增长并提振股价。股市牛市将持续。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利（目标：4,400）：'O</b><b>你的关键信息围绕多重收缩”</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利认为明年股市将下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson预计，明年标普500将跌至4,400点，较12月7日收盘价下跌6.3%。下跌的最大驱动因素将是多重压缩，随着盈利增长继续放缓，明年利率上升的环境将给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们思考未来一年的预测时，我们的关键信息集中在中期评级持续下调、债券收益率上升以及经济和盈利增长的多重收缩上。”<i>不确定性，”</i>威尔逊在一份说明中说。“虽然整体指数的盈利仍然持久，但赢家和输家将更加分散，增长率将大幅放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> \"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对2023年的整体盈利预测与共识大致一致（245美元；增长8%），但我们认为存在显着分散的空间——这表明即使该指数没有表现，股票选择也将在2022年提供大量机会。点对点做太多，”他补充道。“我们认为，最重要的是，2022年将更多地关注股票，而不是行业或风格。”</blockquote></p><p> As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出，随着明年利率将走高，相对于长期成长型股票，银行股可能会受益并跑赢大盘，因为长期成长型股票的估值受利率上升的压力最大。然而，他补充说，“合理定价的增长和防御质量也应该保持下去”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值与增长的痴迷将开始消退。”“就像2021年一样，我们可能会看到价值和增长表现优异的时期，这取决于市场当前在宏观增长和利率方面的状况。目前，我们对价值有轻微的偏见，因为它对利率上升和通胀的杠杆作用较高，这应该会伴随我们到年底。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，另一些则持谨慎态度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，另一些则持谨慎态度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 13:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p><p><blockquote>策略师们已经开始发表对明年股市的展望——在今年两位数的涨幅之后，许多人正在降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p><p><blockquote>在疫苗接种、放松封锁措施和广泛经济重新开放的背景下，截至12月22日收盘，标普500在2021年上涨了约25%。蓝筹股指数也较2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些专家的预测，标普500明年不太可能重复这种回报。随着市场参与者预计美联储至少会加息一次，重新开放带来的初步提振，以及货币和财政刺激的消退，本周期的轻松上涨可能已经成为过去。不止一位策略师认为，明年股市将至少从当前水平小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街顶级公司的一些策略师对明年股市的预测。</blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥本海默（5330）：“源于负面投射的噪音...不应掩盖进步的信号”</b></blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯(John Stoltzfus)对2022年股市持特别乐观的态度，预计随着经济增长依然强劲以及政策制定者采取行动解决对物价上涨的担忧，2022年股市将再次出现两位数涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer的展望预计，到2022年底，标普500将攀升至5,330。这将比12月22日收盘价上涨约13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>“我们建议投资者不要让近期的不确定性掩盖正在取得的进展，因为央行调整货币政策以满足高于预期的通胀，以及美国和全球经济应对当前COVID-19变种带来的重新开放挑战。供应链中断，”Stoltzfus在12月20日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为，最近一些交易员、怀疑论者、空头和恐慌者的负面预测所产生的噪音不应掩盖自2020年3月疫情在全球爆发以来社会和经济取得进展的信号。今天，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stoltzfus指出，该公司仍然跑赢大盘美国股票，同时“保持对发达市场和新兴市场的有意义的投资，因为预计美国国内经济从COVID-19紧急情况中复苏将有助于促进全球经济增长并导致全球经济增长”。经济扩张。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>就板块而言，奥本海默更青睐信息技术和周期性股票，而不是防御性板块。就风格而言，斯托尔茨福斯。至于投资风格，奥本海默表示，考虑到明年利率可能会上升但仍处于历史低位的背景，它更喜欢包括价值股和成长股的杠铃方法。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>瑞士信贷(5,200)：“基于对经济增长的强劲预测”，标普500目标上调</b></blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub对2022年股市越来越看好。</blockquote></p><p> The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将2022年标普500目标价从之前的5,000辆上调至5,200辆。更新后的预测还预测，该指数将再一年实现两位数升值，预计较12月22日收盘价上涨近11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布在一份报告中写道：“这种建设性的前景是基于对实际和名义经济增长的强劲预测、周期性群体的利润率进一步上升、回购增加以及尽管美联储收紧政策但仍有利的贴现率。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还将标普500 2022年每股总收益(EPS)预期从之前的230美元上调至235美元。此次修订假设华盛顿以外的公司税率上调明年不会生效。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对“强劲的GDP和通胀”以及持续的盈利势头的预期，瑞信跑赢大盘周期性行业，包括能源、材料、工业和非必需消费品（不包括互联网零售商）。该公司是市场重量级“TECH+”，即技术、互联网服务和互联网零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布写道：“如果收益率曲线进一步变平、名义增长减弱或盈利趋势逆转，我们将重新评估这一定位。”“由于2022年增长前景疲软，我们将金融和医疗保健行业的评级下调至跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根大通（目标5,050）：“2022年将是经济复苏和周期性资产表现强劲的一年”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通预计明年股市将继续上涨，尽管涨幅比过去几年要慢。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇表示，随着利率即将上升，美国和国际市场的周期性领域将成为表现最强劲的领域之一。</blockquote></p><p> The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预测，到2022年底，标普500将达到5,050点，较12月22日收盘水平上涨约7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p><p><blockquote>Kolanovic写道：“与我们2021年的预测相比，这意味着升值百分比较小；然而，我们确实认为国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将显着跑赢大盘，并带来2-3倍的高回报。”“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者，”他补充道。摩根大通预计，到明年年底，基准10年期国债收益率将攀升至2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> \"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点面临哪些风险？随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会注入波动性，”科拉诺维奇补充道。“2022年投资者还需要监控和管理其他风险。其中包括欧洲和亚洲地缘政治紧张局势加剧（特别是与乌克兰和伊朗有关）、迫在眉睫的能源危机、围绕高通胀的不确定性以及货币政策正常化的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DWS Group（目标：5,000）：“就市盈率而言，他们站在债券市场的肩膀上”</b></blockquote></p><p> DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团预计，在持续（如果放缓）的盈利和经济增长以及利率上升幅度有限的共同支撑下，明年标普500将进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团美洲首席投资官David Bianco在12月1日的媒体看涨期权上表示：“我们对风险资产的看法很简单，2022年应该是又一个好年景。”“随着通胀下降、通胀放缓，我们应该对名义利率和实际利率仅小幅攀升的想法感到满意。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计2022年底标普500将达到5,000点，较12月22日收盘水平增长近6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，长期利率仅小幅攀升，而对美国股市和全球股市PE（市盈率）至关重要的长期实际利率仍接近历史低点，”他补充道。“说到PE倍数，他们是站在债市的肩膀上的。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco预计，该标普500的市盈率（目前市盈率约为22倍）将持续到明年。该公司还预计标普500公司2022年每股收益(EPS)总额将约为228美元，比今年预计的213美元增长7%。这一盈利观点假设2022年美国不会提高企业税。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点是，股市、标准普尔指数的估值基本合理，但长期以来我们的偏好仍然是数字业务——技术、通信、一般成长型股票，以及对无形业务的偏好——我们认为这些类型的企业实际上确实提供了极好的通胀保护，”比安科说。“这已经不是20世纪70年代了。通常，我们认为抵御通胀的最好办法就是拥有最好的企业。寻找那些提高生产率而不是提高价格的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco还表示，该公司是医疗保健和金融行业的跑赢大盘，鉴于美联储明年可能至少加息一次，后者是利率上升的受益者。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行（目标：4,600）：寻找“通胀保值收益率”</b></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p><p><blockquote>美银的Savita Subramanian表示，到2022年底，标普500将略低于目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2022年展望预计该指数明年收于4,600点，较12月22日收盘价下跌2%。与此同时，盈利增长也将放缓，根据Subramanian的预测，标普500明年每股收益将仅增长6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p><p><blockquote>对更高贴现率的预期是这一前景的主要驱动因素之一，预计明年的更高利率环境将打压股票估值。此外，Subramanian补充说，随着利率上升，明年其他资产将争夺投资者的注意力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果现金收益率与标普500 1.3%的股息收益率相媲美，并且10年期收益率到2022年底达到2%，那么TINA（股票别无选择）论点会发生什么变化？股息增长需要因此，我们的主题是：通胀保值收益率，”萨勃拉曼尼亚说。“通胀保值收益率有利于能源、金融和房地产。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们回顾今天时，我们会说什么？可能与2000年后见类似的评论：高期望、华尔街股票配置增加约20[百分点]、零售/民主化市场、疯狂的IPO活动；美联储首次加息进入高估市场。并接受不可思议的事情：00年的股权成本为负，今天的实际利率为负。”她说。“但泡沫的最后一个迹象——企业/消费者杠杆率过高——已经转移到了政府身上。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p><p><blockquote>就青睐的资产类别而言，Subramanian表示，2022年优先考虑大宗商品，然后是现金，然后是股票，然后是债券。她还表示，她更喜欢小盘股而不是大盘股，价值股而不是成长股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛（目标：5,100）：“股市牛市将持续”</b></blockquote></p><p> Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin表示，企业利润将成为明年股市进一步上涨的驱动力。该公司预计，到2022年底，标普500将攀升至5,100点，较12月22日收盘价上涨近9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>一名交易员在纽约证券交易所工作时抬头看着电脑屏幕上的图表。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊（美国-标签：每日商业TPX图片）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>Kostin在一份报告中写道：“利润增长占了标普500 2021年的全部回报，并将继续推动2022年的收益。”“2022年标普500每股收益将增长8%至226美元，2023年将增长4%至236美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀预测，尽管投入成本压力和供应链挑战依然存在，但公司可能会继续扩大利润率，并补充说，他预计明年标普500公司的总利润率将再扩大40个基点，达到12.6%。尽管如此，他建议避免投资劳动力成本高的公司，并青睐高利润率的成长型股票，而不是低利润率或无利可图的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀表示，虽然经济复苏和企业利润的相应强劲可能会延续到明年，但明年的投资环境将发生变化，并给估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储将在7月开始加息，”科斯汀说。“实际利率将上升，巩固估值倍数的上限，并推动股市内的轮动。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，当前股市的其他方面将持续存在。实际利率虽然上升，但仍将为负，投资者的股票配置将继续创下历史新高，”他补充道。“与我们过去一年的预期相反，企业税率可能在2022年保持不变，并在2023年上升。企业盈利将增长并提振股价。股市牛市将持续。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利（目标：4,400）：'O</b><b>你的关键信息围绕多重收缩”</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利认为明年股市将下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson预计，明年标普500将跌至4,400点，较12月7日收盘价下跌6.3%。下跌的最大驱动因素将是多重压缩，随着盈利增长继续放缓，明年利率上升的环境将给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们思考未来一年的预测时，我们的关键信息集中在中期评级持续下调、债券收益率上升以及经济和盈利增长的多重收缩上。”<i>不确定性，”</i>威尔逊在一份说明中说。“虽然整体指数的盈利仍然持久，但赢家和输家将更加分散，增长率将大幅放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> \"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对2023年的整体盈利预测与共识大致一致（245美元；增长8%），但我们认为存在显着分散的空间——这表明即使该指数没有表现，股票选择也将在2022年提供大量机会。点对点做太多，”他补充道。“我们认为，最重要的是，2022年将更多地关注股票，而不是行业或风格。”</blockquote></p><p> As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出，随着明年利率将走高，相对于长期成长型股票，银行股可能会受益并跑赢大盘，因为长期成长型股票的估值受利率上升的压力最大。然而，他补充说，“合理定价的增长和防御质量也应该保持下去”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值与增长的痴迷将开始消退。”“就像2021年一样，我们可能会看到价值和增长表现优异的时期，这取决于市场当前在宏观增长和利率方面的状况。目前，我们对价值有轻微的偏见，因为它对利率上升和通胀的杠杆作用较高，这应该会伴随我们到年底。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195213621","content_text":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.\nAgainst a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&P 500 rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.\n\nThe S&P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.\nHere's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.\n—\nOppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'\nOppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.\nOppenheimer's outlook sees the S&P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.\n\"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.\nStoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"\nIn terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nCredit Suisse (5,200): S&P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'\nCredit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.\nThe firm raised its 2022 S&P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.\nThe firm also raised its 2022 S&P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.\nCredit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.\n\"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nJPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'\nJPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.\nThe firm forecasted that the S&P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.\n\"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nDWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'\nDWS Group expects the S&P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.\n\"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"\nThe firm expects to see the S&P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"\nBianco expects the S&P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.\n\"Our view is that the equity market, the S&P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"\nBianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nBank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'\nThe S&P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.\nThe firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.\nExpectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.\n\"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"\n\"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"\nIn terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nGoldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'\nCorporate profits are set to be the driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.\nA trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)\n\"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"\nCompanies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.\nWhile the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.\n\"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"\n\"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nMorgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'Our key message centers around multiple contraction'\nMorgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.\nMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.\n\"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earningsuncertainty,\"Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"\n\"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"\nAs interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.\n\"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693931584,"gmtCreate":1639959091358,"gmtModify":1639959091617,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693931584","repostId":"1130472386","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605070575,"gmtCreate":1639097120696,"gmtModify":1639097120915,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commenting","listText":"Commenting","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605070575","repostId":"1154976653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606518993,"gmtCreate":1638891979810,"gmtModify":1638891980030,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment 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11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116775921","media":"Barrons","summary":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, an","content":"<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，未来四年谁将领导美联储的决定迫在眉睫，其影响将超越何时开始加息。</blockquote></p><p> The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p><p><blockquote>这场赛马目前在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德之间进行。在货币政策问题上，两人在整个任期内一直意见一致。但在监管和政治问题上，存在重要分歧。乔·拜登总统的决定可能会取决于这些因素，以及谁能在参议院获得50票的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社周一晚间报道，参议院银行业主席谢罗德·布朗（俄亥俄州民主党人）表示，白宫官员告诉他，美联储主席的决定“迫在眉睫”，而拜登则在11月2日表示，这一选择将“相当迅速”宣布。”鲍威尔明年二月主席任期届满时谁将领导央行的选择通常会在几周前做出，但显然政府已经忙着让国会通过其关键立法举措。</blockquote></p><p> As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p><p><blockquote>正如目前在参议院陷入困境的社会支出措施“重建得更好”的斗争一样，美联储的选择归结为支持鲍威尔的温和派和更愿意用布雷纳德取代他的进步派之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔是共和党人，在2011年被前总统巴拉克·奥巴马选为美联储理事后，被前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名为美联储主席。鲍威尔不是训练有素的经济学家。相反，他拥有法律学位并在私募股权领域工作。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德是民主党人和经济学家，曾在奥巴马和克林顿政府任职。她还为希拉里·克林顿2016年失败的总统竞选做出了贡献。</blockquote></p><p> On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p><p><blockquote>在货币政策问题上——货币政策的中心是央行设定利率和买卖证券以指导整体经济——鲍威尔和布雷纳德之间几乎没有什么区别。他监督了美联储方法的重大变化，称为灵活的平均通胀目标，或美联储观察人士的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p><p><blockquote>新策略让美联储将通胀率控制在2%的名义目标之上，以弥补之前的不足。实际上，FAIT允许经济在联邦基金利率目标上调之前达到“最大就业”，联邦基金利率目标仍处于0%-0.25%的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p><p><blockquote>美联储才刚刚开始从2020年3月因遏制新冠肺炎而引发的危机期间开始的每月1200亿美元的规模减少大规模证券购买。根据消费者价格指数的最新数据，随着大规模财政注入，这种超宽松的货币政策已将通胀率推高至每年6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认通胀上升幅度超过预期，但他继续看涨期权通胀是暂时的，并认为当供应链问题得到解决后，通胀将会消退。布雷纳德同意美联储缩减购债规模的决定，但可能倾向于在加息前对通胀保持更多耐心。但到目前为止，两者在这一点上的差异很小。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布雷纳德在金融监管问题上一直更加强硬，经常反对放松限制的决定，包括2008-09年金融危机后颁布的多德弗兰克立法所施加的限制。鲍威尔普遍投票支持放松一些限制，这刺激了马萨诸塞州民主党参议员Elizabeth Warren。）对看涨期权来说，他是一个“危险的人”，她说她会反对他的再次提名。</blockquote></p><p> Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔曾被认为是连任的热门人选。耶伦公开支持他保持连续性，并回归第一任总统继续担任美联储主席的传统，即使此人来自另一方。她本人被特朗普拒绝连任美联储主席。她的前任、共和党人本·伯南克被奥巴马授予第二个任期。同样，共和党人艾伦·格林斯潘被比尔·克林顿重新提名，民主党人保罗·沃尔克被罗纳德·里根连任。</blockquote></p><p> But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p><p><blockquote>但最近，耶伦回避了她的支持。“我说过，我认为鲍威尔主席在管理美联储、解决问题方面做得非常好，特别是在大流行来袭时出现的问题，”她周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对全国》节目中表示。“但重要的是拜登总统选择了一个有经验且可信的人，而且候选人有很多。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，鲍威尔和布雷纳德上周都在白宫接受了采访，只有拜登和国家经济委员会主席布莱恩·迪斯在场。考虑到耶伦作为财政部长和前美联储主席的身份，她的缺席值得注意。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p><p><blockquote>“像参议院银行业主席和许多进步民主党人一样，迪斯先生坚信货币政策可以用来应对和解决气候变化、消除种族主义，甚至可能让我12岁的儿子始终如一地整理床铺。没有什么是货币政策——在正确的领导下——解决不了的。这是激进的、非常进步的……甚至是实验性的政策，”总部位于芝加哥的机构期货经纪商R.J.的机构销售董事总经理约翰·布雷迪说。奥布莱恩在一份客户备忘录中尖刻地写道。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德被认为比鲍威尔更同情这种对美联储职权范围的更广泛观点。因此，达拉斯联储前行长理查德·费舍尔的前顾问、奎尔情报咨询服务出版商丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯认为，拜登现在提名布雷纳德将是一场“巨大的赌博”。</blockquote></p><p> She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>她认为两周前的选举结果，特别是共和党在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中的胜利，使民主党更倾向于温和派。此外，她在接受采访时补充道，鲍威尔所代表的美联储连续性的转变会扰乱市场，这是拜登现在最不需要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>迪马蒂诺·布斯还注意到了最后一个奇怪的进展：据彭博社报道，罗杰·弗格森周一晚间表示，在宣布加入阿波罗集团不到一个月后，他不会加入这家私募股权巨头。给出的理由是他仍然对TIAA-CREF负有义务，并于去年3月辞去了该公司首席执行官的职务。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，弗格森曾于1999-2006年担任美联储副主席，并在9/11事件后赢得了美联储危机管理者的赞誉，当时时任美联储主席的格林斯潘在美国遭受恐怖袭击后被困在国外。弗格森也是黑人，考虑到央行多元化的目标，这是一个考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p><p><blockquote>在Predictit上，鲍威尔仍然是最受欢迎的人，他有73%的概率连任，布雷纳德的概率为23%。当然，下注者不会决定结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-17 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，未来四年谁将领导美联储的决定迫在眉睫，其影响将超越何时开始加息。</blockquote></p><p> The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p><p><blockquote>这场赛马目前在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德之间进行。在货币政策问题上，两人在整个任期内一直意见一致。但在监管和政治问题上，存在重要分歧。乔·拜登总统的决定可能会取决于这些因素，以及谁能在参议院获得50票的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社周一晚间报道，参议院银行业主席谢罗德·布朗（俄亥俄州民主党人）表示，白宫官员告诉他，美联储主席的决定“迫在眉睫”，而拜登则在11月2日表示，这一选择将“相当迅速”宣布。”鲍威尔明年二月主席任期届满时谁将领导央行的选择通常会在几周前做出，但显然政府已经忙着让国会通过其关键立法举措。</blockquote></p><p> As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p><p><blockquote>正如目前在参议院陷入困境的社会支出措施“重建得更好”的斗争一样，美联储的选择归结为支持鲍威尔的温和派和更愿意用布雷纳德取代他的进步派之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔是共和党人，在2011年被前总统巴拉克·奥巴马选为美联储理事后，被前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名为美联储主席。鲍威尔不是训练有素的经济学家。相反，他拥有法律学位并在私募股权领域工作。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德是民主党人和经济学家，曾在奥巴马和克林顿政府任职。她还为希拉里·克林顿2016年失败的总统竞选做出了贡献。</blockquote></p><p> On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p><p><blockquote>在货币政策问题上——货币政策的中心是央行设定利率和买卖证券以指导整体经济——鲍威尔和布雷纳德之间几乎没有什么区别。他监督了美联储方法的重大变化，称为灵活的平均通胀目标，或美联储观察人士的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p><p><blockquote>新策略让美联储将通胀率控制在2%的名义目标之上，以弥补之前的不足。实际上，FAIT允许经济在联邦基金利率目标上调之前达到“最大就业”，联邦基金利率目标仍处于0%-0.25%的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p><p><blockquote>美联储才刚刚开始从2020年3月因遏制新冠肺炎而引发的危机期间开始的每月1200亿美元的规模减少大规模证券购买。根据消费者价格指数的最新数据，随着大规模财政注入，这种超宽松的货币政策已将通胀率推高至每年6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认通胀上升幅度超过预期，但他继续看涨期权通胀是暂时的，并认为当供应链问题得到解决后，通胀将会消退。布雷纳德同意美联储缩减购债规模的决定，但可能倾向于在加息前对通胀保持更多耐心。但到目前为止，两者在这一点上的差异很小。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布雷纳德在金融监管问题上一直更加强硬，经常反对放松限制的决定，包括2008-09年金融危机后颁布的多德弗兰克立法所施加的限制。鲍威尔普遍投票支持放松一些限制，这刺激了马萨诸塞州民主党参议员Elizabeth Warren。）对看涨期权来说，他是一个“危险的人”，她说她会反对他的再次提名。</blockquote></p><p> Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔曾被认为是连任的热门人选。耶伦公开支持他保持连续性，并回归第一任总统继续担任美联储主席的传统，即使此人来自另一方。她本人被特朗普拒绝连任美联储主席。她的前任、共和党人本·伯南克被奥巴马授予第二个任期。同样，共和党人艾伦·格林斯潘被比尔·克林顿重新提名，民主党人保罗·沃尔克被罗纳德·里根连任。</blockquote></p><p> But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p><p><blockquote>但最近，耶伦回避了她的支持。“我说过，我认为鲍威尔主席在管理美联储、解决问题方面做得非常好，特别是在大流行来袭时出现的问题，”她周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对全国》节目中表示。“但重要的是拜登总统选择了一个有经验且可信的人，而且候选人有很多。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，鲍威尔和布雷纳德上周都在白宫接受了采访，只有拜登和国家经济委员会主席布莱恩·迪斯在场。考虑到耶伦作为财政部长和前美联储主席的身份，她的缺席值得注意。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p><p><blockquote>“像参议院银行业主席和许多进步民主党人一样，迪斯先生坚信货币政策可以用来应对和解决气候变化、消除种族主义，甚至可能让我12岁的儿子始终如一地整理床铺。没有什么是货币政策——在正确的领导下——解决不了的。这是激进的、非常进步的……甚至是实验性的政策，”总部位于芝加哥的机构期货经纪商R.J.的机构销售董事总经理约翰·布雷迪说。奥布莱恩在一份客户备忘录中尖刻地写道。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德被认为比鲍威尔更同情这种对美联储职权范围的更广泛观点。因此，达拉斯联储前行长理查德·费舍尔的前顾问、奎尔情报咨询服务出版商丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯认为，拜登现在提名布雷纳德将是一场“巨大的赌博”。</blockquote></p><p> She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>她认为两周前的选举结果，特别是共和党在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中的胜利，使民主党更倾向于温和派。此外，她在接受采访时补充道，鲍威尔所代表的美联储连续性的转变会扰乱市场，这是拜登现在最不需要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>迪马蒂诺·布斯还注意到了最后一个奇怪的进展：据彭博社报道，罗杰·弗格森周一晚间表示，在宣布加入阿波罗集团不到一个月后，他不会加入这家私募股权巨头。给出的理由是他仍然对TIAA-CREF负有义务，并于去年3月辞去了该公司首席执行官的职务。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，弗格森曾于1999-2006年担任美联储副主席，并在9/11事件后赢得了美联储危机管理者的赞誉，当时时任美联储主席的格林斯潘在美国遭受恐怖袭击后被困在国外。弗格森也是黑人，考虑到央行多元化的目标，这是一个考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p><p><blockquote>在Predictit上，鲍威尔仍然是最受欢迎的人，他有73%的概率连任，布雷纳德的概率为23%。当然，下注者不会决定结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116775921","content_text":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.\nThe horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.\nSenate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.\nAs with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.\nPowell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.\nBrainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.\nOn matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.\nThe new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.\nThe Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.\nPowell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.\nBrainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.\nPowell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.\nBut more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”\nPowell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.\n“Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.\nBrainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.\nShe sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.\nOne final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.\nBefore that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.\nOn Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844398900,"gmtCreate":1636386641246,"gmtModify":1636386770292,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","text":"$Quantumscape 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Solar(CSIQ)$share","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522de52ff86eb2526b8027c451859238","width":"1440","height":"3700"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851990826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":862506267,"gmtCreate":1632886945307,"gmtModify":1632886945656,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments pls","listText":"Comments pls","text":"Comments pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862506267","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近顶峰时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略会自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近顶峰时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略会自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163410557,"gmtCreate":1623890999079,"gmtModify":1634026386083,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163410557","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":874053999,"gmtCreate":1637714169109,"gmtModify":1637714169283,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commenting&nbsp;","listText":"Commenting&nbsp;","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874053999","repostId":"2185336565","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859844569,"gmtCreate":1634689304563,"gmtModify":1634689304909,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>share coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>share coin","text":"$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$share coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4c59b61d0312f10ff26b5f095fdbc3","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859844569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127801914,"gmtCreate":1624841823738,"gmtModify":1633948172748,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127801914","repostId":"1119512620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":605070575,"gmtCreate":1639097120696,"gmtModify":1639097120915,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commenting","listText":"Commenting","text":"Commenting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605070575","repostId":"1154976653","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127801628,"gmtCreate":1624841848064,"gmtModify":1631890705681,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment like","listText":"Comment like","text":"Comment like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127801628","repostId":"1133201828","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133201828","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624839570,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133201828?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 08:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Brookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire<blockquote>Brookfield部门签署价值50亿美元的TDR支持的Modulaire协议</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133201828","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the Eur","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, beating out interest from rival Canadian investment firm Onex Corp.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博）-布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司（Brookfield Asset Management Inc.）的一个部门同意以约50亿美元的价格收购由收购公司TDR Capital支持的欧洲模块化工作空间设计师Modulaire Group，击败了竞争对手加拿大投资公司Onex Corp.的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> “We look forward to bringing our global scale and capabilities in owning and operating leading infrastructure services businesses to support Modulaire’s growth, in partnership with the management team,” Anuj Ranjan, managing partner of Brookfield Business Partners LP, said in a statement Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>Brookfield Business Partners LP管理合伙人Anuj Ranjan在周日的一份声明中表示：“我们期待与管理团队合作，利用我们拥有和运营领先基础设施服务业务的全球规模和能力来支持Modulaire的增长。”</blockquote></p><p> Bloomberg News reported the parties were closing in on the deal earlier, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道称，双方早些时候正在接近达成交易。</blockquote></p><p> The deal ranks among the biggest private equity transactions in Europe this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also be among the largest-ever deals for the Canadian investment firm’s European private equity business.</p><p><blockquote>根据彭博汇编的数据，该交易是今年欧洲最大的私募股权交易之一。这也是这家加拿大投资公司欧洲私募股权业务有史以来最大的交易之一。</blockquote></p><p> Modulaire designs modular buildings that can be rented for work and living, as well as portable storage units. Demand for these services have picked up amid the pandemic as businesses seek to cut costs and shy away from longer-term work-space contracts. The company operates across Europe and in Asia. TDR acquired the company in 2004 and has since expanded it through a string of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>Modulaire设计可出租用于工作和生活的模块化建筑，以及便携式存储单元。随着企业寻求削减成本并回避长期工作空间合同，疫情对这些服务的需求有所增加。该公司在欧洲和亚洲开展业务。TDR于2004年收购了该公司，此后通过一系列收购扩大了规模。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported a 27% increase in revenue, including from acquisitions, to 320 million euros in the first quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 44% during the period to 97 million euros, including acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，第一季度收入（包括收购）增长了27%，达到3.2亿欧元。包括收购在内，期内息税折旧摊销前利润增长44%至9700万欧元。</blockquote></p><p> Brookfield Business Partners is a unit of the Canadian firm which invests in business services and industrial sectors. The investment firm is weighing a sale of U.K.-based biofuel provider Greenergy, Bloomberg News reported in May.</p><p><blockquote>Brookfield Business Partners是这家加拿大公司的一个部门，投资于商业服务和工业领域。据彭博社5月份报道，该投资公司正在考虑出售英国生物燃料供应商Greenergy。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire<blockquote>Brookfield部门签署价值50亿美元的TDR支持的Modulaire协议</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrookfield Unit Signs $5 Billion Deal for TDR-Backed Modulaire<blockquote>Brookfield部门签署价值50亿美元的TDR支持的Modulaire协议</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 08:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, beating out interest from rival Canadian investment firm Onex Corp.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博）-布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司（Brookfield Asset Management Inc.）的一个部门同意以约50亿美元的价格收购由收购公司TDR Capital支持的欧洲模块化工作空间设计师Modulaire Group，击败了竞争对手加拿大投资公司Onex Corp.的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> “We look forward to bringing our global scale and capabilities in owning and operating leading infrastructure services businesses to support Modulaire’s growth, in partnership with the management team,” Anuj Ranjan, managing partner of Brookfield Business Partners LP, said in a statement Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>Brookfield Business Partners LP管理合伙人Anuj Ranjan在周日的一份声明中表示：“我们期待与管理团队合作，利用我们拥有和运营领先基础设施服务业务的全球规模和能力来支持Modulaire的增长。”</blockquote></p><p> Bloomberg News reported the parties were closing in on the deal earlier, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道称，双方早些时候正在接近达成交易。</blockquote></p><p> The deal ranks among the biggest private equity transactions in Europe this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also be among the largest-ever deals for the Canadian investment firm’s European private equity business.</p><p><blockquote>根据彭博汇编的数据，该交易是今年欧洲最大的私募股权交易之一。这也是这家加拿大投资公司欧洲私募股权业务有史以来最大的交易之一。</blockquote></p><p> Modulaire designs modular buildings that can be rented for work and living, as well as portable storage units. Demand for these services have picked up amid the pandemic as businesses seek to cut costs and shy away from longer-term work-space contracts. The company operates across Europe and in Asia. TDR acquired the company in 2004 and has since expanded it through a string of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>Modulaire设计可出租用于工作和生活的模块化建筑，以及便携式存储单元。随着企业寻求削减成本并回避长期工作空间合同，疫情对这些服务的需求有所增加。该公司在欧洲和亚洲开展业务。TDR于2004年收购了该公司，此后通过一系列收购扩大了规模。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported a 27% increase in revenue, including from acquisitions, to 320 million euros in the first quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 44% during the period to 97 million euros, including acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>该公司报告称，第一季度收入（包括收购）增长了27%，达到3.2亿欧元。包括收购在内，期内息税折旧摊销前利润增长44%至9700万欧元。</blockquote></p><p> Brookfield Business Partners is a unit of the Canadian firm which invests in business services and industrial sectors. The investment firm is weighing a sale of U.K.-based biofuel provider Greenergy, Bloomberg News reported in May.</p><p><blockquote>Brookfield Business Partners是这家加拿大公司的一个部门，投资于商业服务和工业领域。据彭博社5月份报道，该投资公司正在考虑出售英国生物燃料供应商Greenergy。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBU":"Brookfield Business Partners"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-unit-nears-deal-tdr-190001266.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133201828","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- A unit of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire Modulaire Group, the European designer of modular work spaces backed by buyout firm TDR Capital, for about $5 billion, beating out interest from rival Canadian investment firm Onex Corp.\n“We look forward to bringing our global scale and capabilities in owning and operating leading infrastructure services businesses to support Modulaire’s growth, in partnership with the management team,” Anuj Ranjan, managing partner of Brookfield Business Partners LP, said in a statement Sunday.\nBloomberg News reported the parties were closing in on the deal earlier, citing people familiar with the matter.\nThe deal ranks among the biggest private equity transactions in Europe this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s also be among the largest-ever deals for the Canadian investment firm’s European private equity business.\nModulaire designs modular buildings that can be rented for work and living, as well as portable storage units. Demand for these services have picked up amid the pandemic as businesses seek to cut costs and shy away from longer-term work-space contracts. The company operates across Europe and in Asia. TDR acquired the company in 2004 and has since expanded it through a string of acquisitions.\nThe company reported a 27% increase in revenue, including from acquisitions, to 320 million euros in the first quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 44% during the period to 97 million euros, including acquisitions.\nBrookfield Business Partners is a unit of the Canadian firm which invests in business services and industrial sectors. The investment firm is weighing a sale of U.K.-based biofuel provider Greenergy, Bloomberg News reported in May.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182577095,"gmtCreate":1623593962917,"gmtModify":1634031338990,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182577095","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"PDCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":600703966,"gmtCreate":1638195484476,"gmtModify":1638195484841,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Testing&nbsp;","listText":"Testing&nbsp;","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600703966","repostId":"1106111099","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698481129,"gmtCreate":1640492569777,"gmtModify":1640492570036,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment 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LTD.(AIY.SI)$test","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60283e3e8a547feb036e29ba2e673a1e","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848138384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185995561,"gmtCreate":1623629591553,"gmtModify":1634031060706,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185995561","repostId":"1101883141","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":696528173,"gmtCreate":1640737966793,"gmtModify":1640737967066,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696528173","repostId":"1186633322","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698230902,"gmtCreate":1640400310268,"gmtModify":1640400310511,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Testing","listText":"Testing","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698230902","repostId":"1195213621","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195213621","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640324974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195213621?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，另一些则持谨慎态度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195213621","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempe","content":"<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p><p><blockquote>策略师们已经开始发表对明年股市的展望——在今年两位数的涨幅之后，许多人正在降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p><p><blockquote>在疫苗接种、放松封锁措施和广泛经济重新开放的背景下，截至12月22日收盘，标普500在2021年上涨了约25%。蓝筹股指数也较2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些专家的预测，标普500明年不太可能重复这种回报。随着市场参与者预计美联储至少会加息一次，重新开放带来的初步提振，以及货币和财政刺激的消退，本周期的轻松上涨可能已经成为过去。不止一位策略师认为，明年股市将至少从当前水平小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街顶级公司的一些策略师对明年股市的预测。</blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥本海默（5330）：“源于负面投射的噪音...不应掩盖进步的信号”</b></blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯(John Stoltzfus)对2022年股市持特别乐观的态度，预计随着经济增长依然强劲以及政策制定者采取行动解决对物价上涨的担忧，2022年股市将再次出现两位数涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer的展望预计，到2022年底，标普500将攀升至5,330。这将比12月22日收盘价上涨约13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>“我们建议投资者不要让近期的不确定性掩盖正在取得的进展，因为央行调整货币政策以满足高于预期的通胀，以及美国和全球经济应对当前COVID-19变种带来的重新开放挑战。供应链中断，”Stoltzfus在12月20日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为，最近一些交易员、怀疑论者、空头和恐慌者的负面预测所产生的噪音不应掩盖自2020年3月疫情在全球爆发以来社会和经济取得进展的信号。今天，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stoltzfus指出，该公司仍然跑赢大盘美国股票，同时“保持对发达市场和新兴市场的有意义的投资，因为预计美国国内经济从COVID-19紧急情况中复苏将有助于促进全球经济增长并导致全球经济增长”。经济扩张。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>就板块而言，奥本海默更青睐信息技术和周期性股票，而不是防御性板块。就风格而言，斯托尔茨福斯。至于投资风格，奥本海默表示，考虑到明年利率可能会上升但仍处于历史低位的背景，它更喜欢包括价值股和成长股的杠铃方法。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>瑞士信贷(5,200)：“基于对经济增长的强劲预测”，标普500目标上调</b></blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub对2022年股市越来越看好。</blockquote></p><p> The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将2022年标普500目标价从之前的5,000辆上调至5,200辆。更新后的预测还预测，该指数将再一年实现两位数升值，预计较12月22日收盘价上涨近11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布在一份报告中写道：“这种建设性的前景是基于对实际和名义经济增长的强劲预测、周期性群体的利润率进一步上升、回购增加以及尽管美联储收紧政策但仍有利的贴现率。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还将标普500 2022年每股总收益(EPS)预期从之前的230美元上调至235美元。此次修订假设华盛顿以外的公司税率上调明年不会生效。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对“强劲的GDP和通胀”以及持续的盈利势头的预期，瑞信跑赢大盘周期性行业，包括能源、材料、工业和非必需消费品（不包括互联网零售商）。该公司是市场重量级“TECH+”，即技术、互联网服务和互联网零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布写道：“如果收益率曲线进一步变平、名义增长减弱或盈利趋势逆转，我们将重新评估这一定位。”“由于2022年增长前景疲软，我们将金融和医疗保健行业的评级下调至跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根大通（目标5,050）：“2022年将是经济复苏和周期性资产表现强劲的一年”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通预计明年股市将继续上涨，尽管涨幅比过去几年要慢。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇表示，随着利率即将上升，美国和国际市场的周期性领域将成为表现最强劲的领域之一。</blockquote></p><p> The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预测，到2022年底，标普500将达到5,050点，较12月22日收盘水平上涨约7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p><p><blockquote>Kolanovic写道：“与我们2021年的预测相比，这意味着升值百分比较小；然而，我们确实认为国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将显着跑赢大盘，并带来2-3倍的高回报。”“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者，”他补充道。摩根大通预计，到明年年底，基准10年期国债收益率将攀升至2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> \"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点面临哪些风险？随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会注入波动性，”科拉诺维奇补充道。“2022年投资者还需要监控和管理其他风险。其中包括欧洲和亚洲地缘政治紧张局势加剧（特别是与乌克兰和伊朗有关）、迫在眉睫的能源危机、围绕高通胀的不确定性以及货币政策正常化的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DWS Group（目标：5,000）：“就市盈率而言，他们站在债券市场的肩膀上”</b></blockquote></p><p> DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团预计，在持续（如果放缓）的盈利和经济增长以及利率上升幅度有限的共同支撑下，明年标普500将进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团美洲首席投资官David Bianco在12月1日的媒体看涨期权上表示：“我们对风险资产的看法很简单，2022年应该是又一个好年景。”“随着通胀下降、通胀放缓，我们应该对名义利率和实际利率仅小幅攀升的想法感到满意。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计2022年底标普500将达到5,000点，较12月22日收盘水平增长近6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，长期利率仅小幅攀升，而对美国股市和全球股市PE（市盈率）至关重要的长期实际利率仍接近历史低点，”他补充道。“说到PE倍数，他们是站在债市的肩膀上的。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco预计，该标普500的市盈率（目前市盈率约为22倍）将持续到明年。该公司还预计标普500公司2022年每股收益(EPS)总额将约为228美元，比今年预计的213美元增长7%。这一盈利观点假设2022年美国不会提高企业税。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点是，股市、标准普尔指数的估值基本合理，但长期以来我们的偏好仍然是数字业务——技术、通信、一般成长型股票，以及对无形业务的偏好——我们认为这些类型的企业实际上确实提供了极好的通胀保护，”比安科说。“这已经不是20世纪70年代了。通常，我们认为抵御通胀的最好办法就是拥有最好的企业。寻找那些提高生产率而不是提高价格的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco还表示，该公司是医疗保健和金融行业的跑赢大盘，鉴于美联储明年可能至少加息一次，后者是利率上升的受益者。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行（目标：4,600）：寻找“通胀保值收益率”</b></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p><p><blockquote>美银的Savita Subramanian表示，到2022年底，标普500将略低于目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2022年展望预计该指数明年收于4,600点，较12月22日收盘价下跌2%。与此同时，盈利增长也将放缓，根据Subramanian的预测，标普500明年每股收益将仅增长6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p><p><blockquote>对更高贴现率的预期是这一前景的主要驱动因素之一，预计明年的更高利率环境将打压股票估值。此外，Subramanian补充说，随着利率上升，明年其他资产将争夺投资者的注意力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果现金收益率与标普500 1.3%的股息收益率相媲美，并且10年期收益率到2022年底达到2%，那么TINA（股票别无选择）论点会发生什么变化？股息增长需要因此，我们的主题是：通胀保值收益率，”萨勃拉曼尼亚说。“通胀保值收益率有利于能源、金融和房地产。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们回顾今天时，我们会说什么？可能与2000年后见类似的评论：高期望、华尔街股票配置增加约20[百分点]、零售/民主化市场、疯狂的IPO活动；美联储首次加息进入高估市场。并接受不可思议的事情：00年的股权成本为负，今天的实际利率为负。”她说。“但泡沫的最后一个迹象——企业/消费者杠杆率过高——已经转移到了政府身上。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p><p><blockquote>就青睐的资产类别而言，Subramanian表示，2022年优先考虑大宗商品，然后是现金，然后是股票，然后是债券。她还表示，她更喜欢小盘股而不是大盘股，价值股而不是成长股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛（目标：5,100）：“股市牛市将持续”</b></blockquote></p><p> Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin表示，企业利润将成为明年股市进一步上涨的驱动力。该公司预计，到2022年底，标普500将攀升至5,100点，较12月22日收盘价上涨近9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>一名交易员在纽约证券交易所工作时抬头看着电脑屏幕上的图表。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊（美国-标签：每日商业TPX图片）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>Kostin在一份报告中写道：“利润增长占了标普500 2021年的全部回报，并将继续推动2022年的收益。”“2022年标普500每股收益将增长8%至226美元，2023年将增长4%至236美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀预测，尽管投入成本压力和供应链挑战依然存在，但公司可能会继续扩大利润率，并补充说，他预计明年标普500公司的总利润率将再扩大40个基点，达到12.6%。尽管如此，他建议避免投资劳动力成本高的公司，并青睐高利润率的成长型股票，而不是低利润率或无利可图的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀表示，虽然经济复苏和企业利润的相应强劲可能会延续到明年，但明年的投资环境将发生变化，并给估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储将在7月开始加息，”科斯汀说。“实际利率将上升，巩固估值倍数的上限，并推动股市内的轮动。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，当前股市的其他方面将持续存在。实际利率虽然上升，但仍将为负，投资者的股票配置将继续创下历史新高，”他补充道。“与我们过去一年的预期相反，企业税率可能在2022年保持不变，并在2023年上升。企业盈利将增长并提振股价。股市牛市将持续。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利（目标：4,400）：'O</b><b>你的关键信息围绕多重收缩”</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利认为明年股市将下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson预计，明年标普500将跌至4,400点，较12月7日收盘价下跌6.3%。下跌的最大驱动因素将是多重压缩，随着盈利增长继续放缓，明年利率上升的环境将给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们思考未来一年的预测时，我们的关键信息集中在中期评级持续下调、债券收益率上升以及经济和盈利增长的多重收缩上。”<i>不确定性，”</i>威尔逊在一份说明中说。“虽然整体指数的盈利仍然持久，但赢家和输家将更加分散，增长率将大幅放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> \"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对2023年的整体盈利预测与共识大致一致（245美元；增长8%），但我们认为存在显着分散的空间——这表明即使该指数没有表现，股票选择也将在2022年提供大量机会。点对点做太多，”他补充道。“我们认为，最重要的是，2022年将更多地关注股票，而不是行业或风格。”</blockquote></p><p> As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出，随着明年利率将走高，相对于长期成长型股票，银行股可能会受益并跑赢大盘，因为长期成长型股票的估值受利率上升的压力最大。然而，他补充说，“合理定价的增长和防御质量也应该保持下去”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值与增长的痴迷将开始消退。”“就像2021年一样，我们可能会看到价值和增长表现优异的时期，这取决于市场当前在宏观增长和利率方面的状况。目前，我们对价值有轻微的偏见，因为它对利率上升和通胀的杠杆作用较高，这应该会伴随我们到年底。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，另一些则持谨慎态度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market 2022: Some Wall Street strategists bullish, while others strike a cautious tone<blockquote>2022年股市：一些华尔街策略师看涨，另一些则持谨慎态度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 13:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.</p><p><blockquote>策略师们已经开始发表对明年股市的展望——在今年两位数的涨幅之后，许多人正在降低预期。</blockquote></p><p> Against a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.</p><p><blockquote>在疫苗接种、放松封锁措施和广泛经济重新开放的背景下，截至12月22日收盘，标普500在2021年上涨了约25%。蓝筹股指数也较2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc520db74600e8e9c46338ba7ac718c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些专家的预测，标普500明年不太可能重复这种回报。随着市场参与者预计美联储至少会加息一次，重新开放带来的初步提振，以及货币和财政刺激的消退，本周期的轻松上涨可能已经成为过去。不止一位策略师认为，明年股市将至少从当前水平小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街顶级公司的一些策略师对明年股市的预测。</blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥本海默（5330）：“源于负面投射的噪音...不应掩盖进步的信号”</b></blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus&nbsp;has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.</p><p><blockquote>奥本海默策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯(John Stoltzfus)对2022年股市持特别乐观的态度，预计随着经济增长依然强劲以及政策制定者采取行动解决对物价上涨的担忧，2022年股市将再次出现两位数涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer's outlook sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer的展望预计，到2022年底，标普500将攀升至5,330。这将比12月22日收盘价上涨约13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.</p><p><blockquote>“我们建议投资者不要让近期的不确定性掩盖正在取得的进展，因为央行调整货币政策以满足高于预期的通胀，以及美国和全球经济应对当前COVID-19变种带来的重新开放挑战。供应链中断，”Stoltzfus在12月20日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> \"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为，最近一些交易员、怀疑论者、空头和恐慌者的负面预测所产生的噪音不应掩盖自2020年3月疫情在全球爆发以来社会和经济取得进展的信号。今天，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Stoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"</p><p><blockquote>Stoltzfus指出，该公司仍然跑赢大盘美国股票，同时“保持对发达市场和新兴市场的有意义的投资，因为预计美国国内经济从COVID-19紧急情况中复苏将有助于促进全球经济增长并导致全球经济增长”。经济扩张。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.</p><p><blockquote>就板块而言，奥本海默更青睐信息技术和周期性股票，而不是防御性板块。就风格而言，斯托尔茨福斯。至于投资风格，奥本海默表示，考虑到明年利率可能会上升但仍处于历史低位的背景，它更喜欢包括价值股和成长股的杠铃方法。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Credit Suisse (5,200): S&amp;P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>瑞士信贷(5,200)：“基于对经济增长的强劲预测”，标普500目标上调</b></blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub对2022年股市越来越看好。</blockquote></p><p> The firm raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将2022年标普500目标价从之前的5,000辆上调至5,200辆。更新后的预测还预测，该指数将再一年实现两位数升值，预计较12月22日收盘价上涨近11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布在一份报告中写道：“这种建设性的前景是基于对实际和名义经济增长的强劲预测、周期性群体的利润率进一步上升、回购增加以及尽管美联储收紧政策但仍有利的贴现率。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm also raised its 2022 S&amp;P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还将标普500 2022年每股总收益(EPS)预期从之前的230美元上调至235美元。此次修订假设华盛顿以外的公司税率上调明年不会生效。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对“强劲的GDP和通胀”以及持续的盈利势头的预期，瑞信跑赢大盘周期性行业，包括能源、材料、工业和非必需消费品（不包括互联网零售商）。该公司是市场重量级“TECH+”，即技术、互联网服务和互联网零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>戈卢布写道：“如果收益率曲线进一步变平、名义增长减弱或盈利趋势逆转，我们将重新评估这一定位。”“由于2022年增长前景疲软，我们将金融和医疗保健行业的评级下调至跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>JPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根大通（目标5,050）：“2022年将是经济复苏和周期性资产表现强劲的一年”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> JPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通预计明年股市将继续上涨，尽管涨幅比过去几年要慢。摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇表示，随着利率即将上升，美国和国际市场的周期性领域将成为表现最强劲的领域之一。</blockquote></p><p> The firm forecasted that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预测，到2022年底，标普500将达到5,050点，较12月22日收盘水平上涨约7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"</p><p><blockquote>Kolanovic写道：“与我们2021年的预测相比，这意味着升值百分比较小；然而，我们确实认为国际股票、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将显着跑赢大盘，并带来2-3倍的高回报。”“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者，”他补充道。摩根大通预计，到明年年底，基准10年期国债收益率将攀升至2.25%。</blockquote></p><p> \"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点面临哪些风险？随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会注入波动性，”科拉诺维奇补充道。“2022年投资者还需要监控和管理其他风险。其中包括欧洲和亚洲地缘政治紧张局势加剧（特别是与乌克兰和伊朗有关）、迫在眉睫的能源危机、围绕高通胀的不确定性以及货币政策正常化的路径。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>DWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>DWS Group（目标：5,000）：“就市盈率而言，他们站在债券市场的肩膀上”</b></blockquote></p><p> DWS Group expects the S&amp;P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团预计，在持续（如果放缓）的盈利和经济增长以及利率上升幅度有限的共同支撑下，明年标普500将进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"</p><p><blockquote>DWS集团美洲首席投资官David Bianco在12月1日的媒体看涨期权上表示：“我们对风险资产的看法很简单，2022年应该是又一个好年景。”“随着通胀下降、通胀放缓，我们应该对名义利率和实际利率仅小幅攀升的想法感到满意。”</blockquote></p><p> The firm expects to see the S&amp;P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.</p><p><blockquote>该公司预计2022年底标普500将达到5,000点，较12月22日收盘水平增长近6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> \"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，长期利率仅小幅攀升，而对美国股市和全球股市PE（市盈率）至关重要的长期实际利率仍接近历史低点，”他补充道。“说到PE倍数，他们是站在债市的肩膀上的。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco expects the S&amp;P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&amp;P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco预计，该标普500的市盈率（目前市盈率约为22倍）将持续到明年。该公司还预计标普500公司2022年每股收益(EPS)总额将约为228美元，比今年预计的213美元增长7%。这一盈利观点假设2022年美国不会提高企业税。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our view is that the equity market, the S&amp;P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的观点是，股市、标准普尔指数的估值基本合理，但长期以来我们的偏好仍然是数字业务——技术、通信、一般成长型股票，以及对无形业务的偏好——我们认为这些类型的企业实际上确实提供了极好的通胀保护，”比安科说。“这已经不是20世纪70年代了。通常，我们认为抵御通胀的最好办法就是拥有最好的企业。寻找那些提高生产率而不是提高价格的企业。”</blockquote></p><p> Bianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.</p><p><blockquote>Bianco还表示，该公司是医疗保健和金融行业的跑赢大盘，鉴于美联储明年可能至少加息一次，后者是利率上升的受益者。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of December 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年12月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行（目标：4,600）：寻找“通胀保值收益率”</b></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.</p><p><blockquote>美银的Savita Subramanian表示，到2022年底，标普500将略低于目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&amp;P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2022年展望预计该指数明年收于4,600点，较12月22日收盘价下跌2%。与此同时，盈利增长也将放缓，根据Subramanian的预测，标普500明年每股收益将仅增长6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.</p><p><blockquote>对更高贴现率的预期是这一前景的主要驱动因素之一，预计明年的更高利率环境将打压股票估值。此外，Subramanian补充说，随着利率上升，明年其他资产将争夺投资者的注意力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&amp;P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果现金收益率与标普500 1.3%的股息收益率相媲美，并且10年期收益率到2022年底达到2%，那么TINA（股票别无选择）论点会发生什么变化？股息增长需要因此，我们的主题是：通胀保值收益率，”萨勃拉曼尼亚说。“通胀保值收益率有利于能源、金融和房地产。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们回顾今天时，我们会说什么？可能与2000年后见类似的评论：高期望、华尔街股票配置增加约20[百分点]、零售/民主化市场、疯狂的IPO活动；美联储首次加息进入高估市场。并接受不可思议的事情：00年的股权成本为负，今天的实际利率为负。”她说。“但泡沫的最后一个迹象——企业/消费者杠杆率过高——已经转移到了政府身上。”</blockquote></p><p> In terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.</p><p><blockquote>就青睐的资产类别而言，Subramanian表示，2022年优先考虑大宗商品，然后是现金，然后是股票，然后是债券。她还表示，她更喜欢小盘股而不是大盘股，价值股而不是成长股。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛（目标：5,100）：“股市牛市将持续”</b></blockquote></p><p> Corporate profits are set to be the&nbsp;driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&amp;P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin表示，企业利润将成为明年股市进一步上涨的驱动力。该公司预计，到2022年底，标普500将攀升至5,100点，较12月22日收盘价上涨近9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d62556aecb6ba8e396c1bda82f9d5c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>一名交易员在纽约证券交易所工作时抬头看着电脑屏幕上的图表。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊（美国-标签：每日商业TPX图片）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&amp;P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&amp;P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"</p><p><blockquote>Kostin在一份报告中写道：“利润增长占了标普500 2021年的全部回报，并将继续推动2022年的收益。”“2022年标普500每股收益将增长8%至226美元，2023年将增长4%至236美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&amp;P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀预测，尽管投入成本压力和供应链挑战依然存在，但公司可能会继续扩大利润率，并补充说，他预计明年标普500公司的总利润率将再扩大40个基点，达到12.6%。尽管如此，他建议避免投资劳动力成本高的公司，并青睐高利润率的成长型股票，而不是低利润率或无利可图的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> While the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀表示，虽然经济复苏和企业利润的相应强劲可能会延续到明年，但明年的投资环境将发生变化，并给估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储将在7月开始加息，”科斯汀说。“实际利率将上升，巩固估值倍数的上限，并推动股市内的轮动。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，当前股市的其他方面将持续存在。实际利率虽然上升，但仍将为负，投资者的股票配置将继续创下历史新高，”他补充道。“与我们过去一年的预期相反，企业税率可能在2022年保持不变，并在2023年上升。企业盈利将增长并提振股价。股市牛市将持续。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p> —</p><p><blockquote>—</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'O</b><b>ur key message centers around multiple contraction'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利（目标：4,400）：'O</b><b>你的关键信息围绕多重收缩”</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利认为明年股市将下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&amp;P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson预计，明年标普500将跌至4,400点，较12月7日收盘价下跌6.3%。下跌的最大驱动因素将是多重压缩，随着盈利增长继续放缓，明年利率上升的环境将给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earnings<i>uncertainty,\"</i>Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"</p><p><blockquote>“当我们思考未来一年的预测时，我们的关键信息集中在中期评级持续下调、债券收益率上升以及经济和盈利增长的多重收缩上。”<i>不确定性，”</i>威尔逊在一份说明中说。“虽然整体指数的盈利仍然持久，但赢家和输家将更加分散，增长率将大幅放缓。”</blockquote></p><p> \"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对2023年的整体盈利预测与共识大致一致（245美元；增长8%），但我们认为存在显着分散的空间——这表明即使该指数没有表现，股票选择也将在2022年提供大量机会。点对点做太多，”他补充道。“我们认为，最重要的是，2022年将更多地关注股票，而不是行业或风格。”</blockquote></p><p> As interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊指出，随着明年利率将走高，相对于长期成长型股票，银行股可能会受益并跑赢大盘，因为长期成长型股票的估值受利率上升的压力最大。然而，他补充说，“合理定价的增长和防御质量也应该保持下去”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示：“我们认为，随着特殊风险成为关键，对价值与增长的痴迷将开始消退。”“就像2021年一样，我们可能会看到价值和增长表现优异的时期，这取决于市场当前在宏观增长和利率方面的状况。目前，我们对价值有轻微的偏见，因为它对利率上升和通胀的杠杆作用较高，这应该会伴随我们到年底。”</blockquote></p><p> <i>Price target as of November 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><i>截至2021年11月的价格目标</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-equity-outlook-2022-193659328.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195213621","content_text":"Strategists have begun to deliver their outlooks for the stock market next year — and many are tempering expectations after this year's double-digit gains.\nAgainst a backdrop of vaccinations, easing lockdown measures and a broad-based economic reopening, the S&P 500 rose by about 25% in 2021 through market close on Dec. 22. The blue-chip index has also more than doubled from its March 23, 2020 nadir.\n\nThe S&P 500 is unlikely to repeat these kinds of returns next year, based on the projections of a number of pundits. With market participants pricing in at least one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and an initial boost from the reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus fading, the easy gains for this cycle are likely in the past. And more than one strategist thinks stocks are set to decline at least modestly next year from current levels.\nHere's what some strategists from top Wall Street firms are predicting for the stock market next year.\n—\nOppenheimer (5,330): 'The noise stemming from negative projections ... should not obscure the signals of progress'\nOppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus has struck an especially upbeat tone on stocks for 2022, projecting another year of double-digit gains as economic growth remains robust and policymakers move to address concerns over rising prices.\nOppenheimer's outlook sees the S&P 500 climbing to 5,330 by year-end 2022. This would represent an about 13.5% increase from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"We suggest that investors not let near-term uncertainty obfuscate progress being made as the central bank adjusts monetary policy to meet higher-than-expected inflation and as the U.S. and global economy navigate current challenges to re-openings posed by COVID-19 variants and supply chain disruptions,\" Stoltzfus wrote in a note published on Dec. 20.\n\"In our view, the noise stemming from negative projections coming from some traders, skeptics, bears and fear-mongers of late should not obscure the signals of progress that have been made societally and economically since the pandemic struck globally in March 2020 through to the current day,\" he added.\nStoltzfus noted that the firm remains overweight U.S. equities, while also \"maintaining meaningful exposure to both developed and emerging markets on expectations that an economic recovery stateside coming out of the COVID-19 emergency will help boost economic growth around the world and lead to a global economic expansion.\"\nIn terms of sectors, Oppenheimer favors information technology and cyclical stocks over defensive sectors. And in terms of style, Stoltzfus. And for investing style, Oppenheimer said it prefers a barbell approach that includes both value and growth stocks, given the backdrop of what is likely to be rising, but still historically low interest rates next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nCredit Suisse (5,200): S&P 500 target raised 'on robust projections for economic growth'\nCredit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub is getting more bullish on stocks for 2022.\nThe firm raised its 2022 S&P 500 price target to 5,200, from the 5,000 seen previously. The updated forecast also predicts another year of double-digit appreciation for the index, with an estimated rise of nearly 11% from closing prices on Dec. 22.\n\"This constructive outlook is based on robust projections for economic growth in both real and nominal terms, further margin upside in cyclical groups, a pickup in buybacks and a favorable discount rate despite Fed tightening,\" Golub wrote in a note.\nThe firm also raised its 2022 S&P 500 aggregate earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $235, up from the $230 seen previously. The revision assumes that a corporate tax rate increase will not take effect next year out of Washington.\nCredit Suisse is Overweight cyclical sectors including energy, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary (excluding internet retailers), given expectations for \"robust GDP and inflation\" and continued earnings momentum. The firm is market weight \"TECH+,\" or technology, internet services and internet retail firms.\n\"We would reevaluate this positioning should the yield curve flatten further, nominal growth fade, or earnings trends reverse,\" Golub wrote. \"We are downgrading Financials and Health Care to Underweight, on weaker growth prospects in 2022.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nJPMorgan (Target 5,050): '2022 will be a strong year for economic recovery and performance of cyclical assets'\nJPMorgan sees stocks building on gains next year, albeit at a slower clip than in the last few years. And with interest rates poised to rise, cyclical areas of the market — both in the U.S. and internationally — are set to be some of the strongest performers, suggested Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan.\nThe firm forecasted that the S&P 500 would reach 5,050 by year-end 2022, representing a rise of about 7.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"This represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to our 2021 forecast; however, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver 2-3 times higher returns,\" Kolanovic wrote. \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" he added. JPMorgan expects the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to climb to 2.25% by the end of next year.\n\"What are the risks to our view? As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility,\" Kolanovic added. \"There are other risks that investors will need to monitor and manage in 2022. They include increased geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia (in particular related to Ukraine and Iran), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties around high inflation, and the path of monetary policy normalization.\"\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nDWS Group (Target: 5,000): 'When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market'\nDWS Group expects the S&P 500 will rise further into next year, supported by a combination of sustained — if slowing, earnings and economic growth — and a contained rise in rates.\n\"Our view for risk assets is simply, it should be another good year in 2022,\" David Bianco, DWS Group chief investment officer, Americas, said during a media call on Dec. 1. \"With lower inflation, slowing inflation, we should be comfortable with the idea that interest rates, both nominal and real, only climb modestly.\"\nThe firm expects to see the S&P 500 end 2022 at 5,000, growing by nearly 6.5% from closing levels on Dec. 22.\n\"So far, long-term interest rates have only climbed slightly, and long-term real interest rates which are key for the PE [price-earnings ratio] of U.S. equities and equities worldwide, they're still near all-time lows,\" he added. \"When it comes to PE multiples, they stand on the shoulders of the bond market.\"\nBianco expects the S&P 500's PE multiple, which has been trading at about 22 times current earnings, will be sustained through next year. The firm also anticipates S&P 500 companies' aggregate earnings per share (EPS) will come in at about $228 for 2022, growing by 7% from an estimated $213 level this year. This earnings view assumes no corporate tax hikes in the U.S. in 2022.\n\"Our view is that the equity market, the S&P, is largely fairly valued, but our preferences for a long time have remained the digital businesses — technology, communications, growth stocks in general, a preference for intangible businesses — we've argued that these types of businesses actually do provide terrific inflation protection,\" Bianco said. \"This is not the 1970s, and often, we think the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best quality businesses. And look for businesses that are raising productivity, rather than raising price.\"\nBianco also said the firm was Overweight the health care and financials sectors, with the latter constituting a beneficiary of higher rates given the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike next year.\nPrice target as of December 2021\n—\nBank of America (Target: 4,600): Look for 'inflation-protected yield'\nThe S&P 500 is poised to end 2022 slightly lower compared to present levels, according to Bank of America's Savita Subramanian.\nThe firm's 2022 outlook sees the index ending next year at 4,600, or down by 2% compared to closing prices on Dec. 22. That would come alongside slowing earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings per share set to rise just 6.5% next year, based on Subramanian's projections.\nExpectations for a higher discount rate serve as one of the main drivers for this outlook, with next year's predicted higher-rate environment weighing on stock valuations. Plus, as rates rise, other assets will compete for investor attention next year, Subramanian added.\n\"What happens to the TINA ('There is no alternative' to stocks) argument if cash yields rival the S&P 500's 1.3% dividend yield, and the 10-year yield hits 2% by YE [year-end] 2022? Dividend growth needs to keep up, thus, our theme: inflation-protected yield,\" Subramanian said. \"Inflation-protected yield favors Energy, Financials and Real Estate.\"\n\"What will we say when we look back at today? Probably similar comments to 2000 hindsight: lofty expectations, Wall St. stock allocations up ~20 [percentage points], retail/democratized markets, frenzied IPO activity; first Fed hike into an overvalued market. And acceptance of the unthinkable: a negative cost of equity in '00, negative real rates today.\" she said. \"But the last sign of a bubble — excessive corporate/ consumer leverage — has been transferred to the government.\"\nIn terms of asset classes to favor, Subramanian said prioritize commodities, then cash, then stocks and then bonds in 2022. She also said she prefers small caps versus large caps and value stocks versus growth.\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nGoldman Sachs (Target: 5,100): 'The equity bull market will continue'\nCorporate profits are set to be the driving force for a further rise in the stock market next year,according to David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist. The firm expects the S&P 500 to climb to 5,100 by the end of 2022, marking a nearly 9% rise from Dec. 22's closing prices.\nA trader looks up at a chart on his computer screen while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)\n\"Profit growth has accounted for the entire S&P 500 return in 2021 and will continue to drive gains in 2022,\" wrote Kostin in a note. \"S&P 500 EPS will grow by 8% to $226 in 2022 and by 4% to $236 in 2023.\"\nCompanies will likely continue to expand profit margins even as input cost pressures and supply chain challenges linger, Kostin predicted, adding that he expects aggregate S&P 500 company profit margins to expand by another 40 basis points to reach 12.6% next year. Still, he suggested avoiding investing in firms with high labor costs, and favoring growth stocks with high margins over low-margin or unprofitable growth stocks.\nWhile the economic recovery and commensurate strength in corporate profits will likely extend into next year, one key factor will shift in next year's investing environment and apply pressure to valuations, Kostin said.\n\"The Fed will begin to hike rates in July,\" Kostin said. \"Real interest rates will rise, solidifying the ceiling on valuation multiples and driving rotations within the equity market.\"\n\"However, other aspects of the current equity market will persist. Real rates, while rising, will remain negative, and investor equity allocations will continue to establish record highs,\" he added. \"In contrast with our expectation during the past year, corporate tax rates will likely remain unchanged in 2022 and rise in 2023. Corporate earnings will grow and lift share prices. The equity bull market will continue.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021\n—\nMorgan Stanley (Target: 4,400): 'Our key message centers around multiple contraction'\nMorgan Stanley thinks stocks are going down next year.\nMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, sees the S&P 500 dipping to 4,400 next year, representing a drop of 6.3%, compared to Dec. 7's closing prices.The biggest driver of the dip will be multiple compression, with a higher-rate environment next year pressuring stock valuations as earnings growth continues at a slower rate.\n\"As we think about our forecasts for the year ahead, our key message centers around multiple contraction amid a continued mid-cycle de-rating, higher bond yields, and greater economic and earningsuncertainty,\"Wilson said in a note. \"While earnings for the overall index remain durable, there will be greater dispersion of winners and losers and growth rates will slow materially.\"\n\"While our overall earnings forecast for 2023 is about in-line with consensus ($245; 8% growth), we believe there is scope for significant dispersion — suggesting stock selection will provide plenty of opportunity in 2022 even if the index doesn't do much point to point,\" he added. \"Bottom line, 2022 will be more about stocks than sectors or styles, in our view.\"\nAs interest rates set to move higher next year, bank stocks may benefit and outperform relative to long-duration growth stocks that would see valuations most pressured by rising rates, Wilson noted. However, \"reasonably priced growth and defensive quality should hold up\" as well, he added.\n\"We think the obsession with Value vs. Growth will start to die down as idiosyncratic risk becomes the key,\" Wilson said. \"Much like 2021, we could see periods of Value and Growth outperformance that is dependent on the market's current posture regarding macro growth and rates. For the moment, we have a slight bias toward Value given its higher leverage to rising interest rates and inflation, which should be with us through year-end.\"\nPrice target as of November 2021","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878085686,"gmtCreate":1637124421963,"gmtModify":1637124422393,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878085686","repostId":"1116775921","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116775921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637120007,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116775921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-17 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116775921","media":"Barrons","summary":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, an","content":"<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，未来四年谁将领导美联储的决定迫在眉睫，其影响将超越何时开始加息。</blockquote></p><p> The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p><p><blockquote>这场赛马目前在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德之间进行。在货币政策问题上，两人在整个任期内一直意见一致。但在监管和政治问题上，存在重要分歧。乔·拜登总统的决定可能会取决于这些因素，以及谁能在参议院获得50票的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社周一晚间报道，参议院银行业主席谢罗德·布朗（俄亥俄州民主党人）表示，白宫官员告诉他，美联储主席的决定“迫在眉睫”，而拜登则在11月2日表示，这一选择将“相当迅速”宣布。”鲍威尔明年二月主席任期届满时谁将领导央行的选择通常会在几周前做出，但显然政府已经忙着让国会通过其关键立法举措。</blockquote></p><p> As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p><p><blockquote>正如目前在参议院陷入困境的社会支出措施“重建得更好”的斗争一样，美联储的选择归结为支持鲍威尔的温和派和更愿意用布雷纳德取代他的进步派之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔是共和党人，在2011年被前总统巴拉克·奥巴马选为美联储理事后，被前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名为美联储主席。鲍威尔不是训练有素的经济学家。相反，他拥有法律学位并在私募股权领域工作。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德是民主党人和经济学家，曾在奥巴马和克林顿政府任职。她还为希拉里·克林顿2016年失败的总统竞选做出了贡献。</blockquote></p><p> On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p><p><blockquote>在货币政策问题上——货币政策的中心是央行设定利率和买卖证券以指导整体经济——鲍威尔和布雷纳德之间几乎没有什么区别。他监督了美联储方法的重大变化，称为灵活的平均通胀目标，或美联储观察人士的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p><p><blockquote>新策略让美联储将通胀率控制在2%的名义目标之上，以弥补之前的不足。实际上，FAIT允许经济在联邦基金利率目标上调之前达到“最大就业”，联邦基金利率目标仍处于0%-0.25%的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p><p><blockquote>美联储才刚刚开始从2020年3月因遏制新冠肺炎而引发的危机期间开始的每月1200亿美元的规模减少大规模证券购买。根据消费者价格指数的最新数据，随着大规模财政注入，这种超宽松的货币政策已将通胀率推高至每年6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认通胀上升幅度超过预期，但他继续看涨期权通胀是暂时的，并认为当供应链问题得到解决后，通胀将会消退。布雷纳德同意美联储缩减购债规模的决定，但可能倾向于在加息前对通胀保持更多耐心。但到目前为止，两者在这一点上的差异很小。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布雷纳德在金融监管问题上一直更加强硬，经常反对放松限制的决定，包括2008-09年金融危机后颁布的多德弗兰克立法所施加的限制。鲍威尔普遍投票支持放松一些限制，这刺激了马萨诸塞州民主党参议员Elizabeth Warren。）对看涨期权来说，他是一个“危险的人”，她说她会反对他的再次提名。</blockquote></p><p> Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔曾被认为是连任的热门人选。耶伦公开支持他保持连续性，并回归第一任总统继续担任美联储主席的传统，即使此人来自另一方。她本人被特朗普拒绝连任美联储主席。她的前任、共和党人本·伯南克被奥巴马授予第二个任期。同样，共和党人艾伦·格林斯潘被比尔·克林顿重新提名，民主党人保罗·沃尔克被罗纳德·里根连任。</blockquote></p><p> But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p><p><blockquote>但最近，耶伦回避了她的支持。“我说过，我认为鲍威尔主席在管理美联储、解决问题方面做得非常好，特别是在大流行来袭时出现的问题，”她周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对全国》节目中表示。“但重要的是拜登总统选择了一个有经验且可信的人，而且候选人有很多。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，鲍威尔和布雷纳德上周都在白宫接受了采访，只有拜登和国家经济委员会主席布莱恩·迪斯在场。考虑到耶伦作为财政部长和前美联储主席的身份，她的缺席值得注意。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p><p><blockquote>“像参议院银行业主席和许多进步民主党人一样，迪斯先生坚信货币政策可以用来应对和解决气候变化、消除种族主义，甚至可能让我12岁的儿子始终如一地整理床铺。没有什么是货币政策——在正确的领导下——解决不了的。这是激进的、非常进步的……甚至是实验性的政策，”总部位于芝加哥的机构期货经纪商R.J.的机构销售董事总经理约翰·布雷迪说。奥布莱恩在一份客户备忘录中尖刻地写道。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德被认为比鲍威尔更同情这种对美联储职权范围的更广泛观点。因此，达拉斯联储前行长理查德·费舍尔的前顾问、奎尔情报咨询服务出版商丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯认为，拜登现在提名布雷纳德将是一场“巨大的赌博”。</blockquote></p><p> She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>她认为两周前的选举结果，特别是共和党在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中的胜利，使民主党更倾向于温和派。此外，她在接受采访时补充道，鲍威尔所代表的美联储连续性的转变会扰乱市场，这是拜登现在最不需要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>迪马蒂诺·布斯还注意到了最后一个奇怪的进展：据彭博社报道，罗杰·弗格森周一晚间表示，在宣布加入阿波罗集团不到一个月后，他不会加入这家私募股权巨头。给出的理由是他仍然对TIAA-CREF负有义务，并于去年3月辞去了该公司首席执行官的职务。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，弗格森曾于1999-2006年担任美联储副主席，并在9/11事件后赢得了美联储危机管理者的赞誉，当时时任美联储主席的格林斯潘在美国遭受恐怖袭击后被困在国外。弗格森也是黑人，考虑到央行多元化的目标，这是一个考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p><p><blockquote>在Predictit上，鲍威尔仍然是最受欢迎的人，他有73%的概率连任，布雷纳德的概率为23%。当然，下注者不会决定结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-17 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，未来四年谁将领导美联储的决定迫在眉睫，其影响将超越何时开始加息。</blockquote></p><p> The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p><p><blockquote>这场赛马目前在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德之间进行。在货币政策问题上，两人在整个任期内一直意见一致。但在监管和政治问题上，存在重要分歧。乔·拜登总统的决定可能会取决于这些因素，以及谁能在参议院获得50票的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社周一晚间报道，参议院银行业主席谢罗德·布朗（俄亥俄州民主党人）表示，白宫官员告诉他，美联储主席的决定“迫在眉睫”，而拜登则在11月2日表示，这一选择将“相当迅速”宣布。”鲍威尔明年二月主席任期届满时谁将领导央行的选择通常会在几周前做出，但显然政府已经忙着让国会通过其关键立法举措。</blockquote></p><p> As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p><p><blockquote>正如目前在参议院陷入困境的社会支出措施“重建得更好”的斗争一样，美联储的选择归结为支持鲍威尔的温和派和更愿意用布雷纳德取代他的进步派之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔是共和党人，在2011年被前总统巴拉克·奥巴马选为美联储理事后，被前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名为美联储主席。鲍威尔不是训练有素的经济学家。相反，他拥有法律学位并在私募股权领域工作。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德是民主党人和经济学家，曾在奥巴马和克林顿政府任职。她还为希拉里·克林顿2016年失败的总统竞选做出了贡献。</blockquote></p><p> On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p><p><blockquote>在货币政策问题上——货币政策的中心是央行设定利率和买卖证券以指导整体经济——鲍威尔和布雷纳德之间几乎没有什么区别。他监督了美联储方法的重大变化，称为灵活的平均通胀目标，或美联储观察人士的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p><p><blockquote>新策略让美联储将通胀率控制在2%的名义目标之上，以弥补之前的不足。实际上，FAIT允许经济在联邦基金利率目标上调之前达到“最大就业”，联邦基金利率目标仍处于0%-0.25%的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p><p><blockquote>美联储才刚刚开始从2020年3月因遏制新冠肺炎而引发的危机期间开始的每月1200亿美元的规模减少大规模证券购买。根据消费者价格指数的最新数据，随着大规模财政注入，这种超宽松的货币政策已将通胀率推高至每年6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认通胀上升幅度超过预期，但他继续看涨期权通胀是暂时的，并认为当供应链问题得到解决后，通胀将会消退。布雷纳德同意美联储缩减购债规模的决定，但可能倾向于在加息前对通胀保持更多耐心。但到目前为止，两者在这一点上的差异很小。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布雷纳德在金融监管问题上一直更加强硬，经常反对放松限制的决定，包括2008-09年金融危机后颁布的多德弗兰克立法所施加的限制。鲍威尔普遍投票支持放松一些限制，这刺激了马萨诸塞州民主党参议员Elizabeth Warren。）对看涨期权来说，他是一个“危险的人”，她说她会反对他的再次提名。</blockquote></p><p> Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔曾被认为是连任的热门人选。耶伦公开支持他保持连续性，并回归第一任总统继续担任美联储主席的传统，即使此人来自另一方。她本人被特朗普拒绝连任美联储主席。她的前任、共和党人本·伯南克被奥巴马授予第二个任期。同样，共和党人艾伦·格林斯潘被比尔·克林顿重新提名，民主党人保罗·沃尔克被罗纳德·里根连任。</blockquote></p><p> But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p><p><blockquote>但最近，耶伦回避了她的支持。“我说过，我认为鲍威尔主席在管理美联储、解决问题方面做得非常好，特别是在大流行来袭时出现的问题，”她周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对全国》节目中表示。“但重要的是拜登总统选择了一个有经验且可信的人，而且候选人有很多。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，鲍威尔和布雷纳德上周都在白宫接受了采访，只有拜登和国家经济委员会主席布莱恩·迪斯在场。考虑到耶伦作为财政部长和前美联储主席的身份，她的缺席值得注意。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p><p><blockquote>“像参议院银行业主席和许多进步民主党人一样，迪斯先生坚信货币政策可以用来应对和解决气候变化、消除种族主义，甚至可能让我12岁的儿子始终如一地整理床铺。没有什么是货币政策——在正确的领导下——解决不了的。这是激进的、非常进步的……甚至是实验性的政策，”总部位于芝加哥的机构期货经纪商R.J.的机构销售董事总经理约翰·布雷迪说。奥布莱恩在一份客户备忘录中尖刻地写道。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德被认为比鲍威尔更同情这种对美联储职权范围的更广泛观点。因此，达拉斯联储前行长理查德·费舍尔的前顾问、奎尔情报咨询服务出版商丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯认为，拜登现在提名布雷纳德将是一场“巨大的赌博”。</blockquote></p><p> She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>她认为两周前的选举结果，特别是共和党在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中的胜利，使民主党更倾向于温和派。此外，她在接受采访时补充道，鲍威尔所代表的美联储连续性的转变会扰乱市场，这是拜登现在最不需要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>迪马蒂诺·布斯还注意到了最后一个奇怪的进展：据彭博社报道，罗杰·弗格森周一晚间表示，在宣布加入阿波罗集团不到一个月后，他不会加入这家私募股权巨头。给出的理由是他仍然对TIAA-CREF负有义务，并于去年3月辞去了该公司首席执行官的职务。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，弗格森曾于1999-2006年担任美联储副主席，并在9/11事件后赢得了美联储危机管理者的赞誉，当时时任美联储主席的格林斯潘在美国遭受恐怖袭击后被困在国外。弗格森也是黑人，考虑到央行多元化的目标，这是一个考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p><p><blockquote>在Predictit上，鲍威尔仍然是最受欢迎的人，他有73%的概率连任，布雷纳德的概率为23%。当然，下注者不会决定结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116775921","content_text":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.\nThe horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.\nSenate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.\nAs with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.\nPowell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.\nBrainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.\nOn matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.\nThe new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.\nThe Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.\nPowell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.\nBrainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.\nPowell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.\nBut more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”\nPowell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.\n“Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.\nBrainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.\nShe sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.\nOne final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.\nBefore that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.\nOn Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844398900,"gmtCreate":1636386641246,"gmtModify":1636386770292,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>coin","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a132ef1c401321c14384bb5e96687c48","width":"1440","height":"2442"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844398900","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827941530,"gmtCreate":1634396977152,"gmtModify":1634396977534,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>comment coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>comment coin","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$comment coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f343c732bd9c66d1017281520f6f9c5","width":"1440","height":"3942"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827941530","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822698695,"gmtCreate":1634123001347,"gmtModify":1634123001462,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorIdStr":"3561606993964516"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>share coin","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>share coin","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$share coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20352531598e44a5a43edcffa2f0b8f6","width":"1440","height":"2113"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822698695","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}