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2021-11-17
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Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":878085686,"tweetId":"878085686","gmtCreate":1637124421963,"gmtModify":1637124422393,"author":{"id":3561606993964516,"idStr":"3561606993964516","authorId":3561606993964516,"authorIdStr":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":20,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Comment</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Comment</p></body></html>","text":"Comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878085686","repostId":1116775921,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116775921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637120007,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116775921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-17 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116775921","media":"Barrons","summary":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, an","content":"<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，未来四年谁将领导美联储的决定迫在眉睫，其影响将超越何时开始加息。</blockquote></p><p> The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p><p><blockquote>这场赛马目前在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德之间进行。在货币政策问题上，两人在整个任期内一直意见一致。但在监管和政治问题上，存在重要分歧。乔·拜登总统的决定可能会取决于这些因素，以及谁能在参议院获得50票的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社周一晚间报道，参议院银行业主席谢罗德·布朗（俄亥俄州民主党人）表示，白宫官员告诉他，美联储主席的决定“迫在眉睫”，而拜登则在11月2日表示，这一选择将“相当迅速”宣布。”鲍威尔明年二月主席任期届满时谁将领导央行的选择通常会在几周前做出，但显然政府已经忙着让国会通过其关键立法举措。</blockquote></p><p> As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p><p><blockquote>正如目前在参议院陷入困境的社会支出措施“重建得更好”的斗争一样，美联储的选择归结为支持鲍威尔的温和派和更愿意用布雷纳德取代他的进步派之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔是共和党人，在2011年被前总统巴拉克·奥巴马选为美联储理事后，被前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名为美联储主席。鲍威尔不是训练有素的经济学家。相反，他拥有法律学位并在私募股权领域工作。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德是民主党人和经济学家，曾在奥巴马和克林顿政府任职。她还为希拉里·克林顿2016年失败的总统竞选做出了贡献。</blockquote></p><p> On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p><p><blockquote>在货币政策问题上——货币政策的中心是央行设定利率和买卖证券以指导整体经济——鲍威尔和布雷纳德之间几乎没有什么区别。他监督了美联储方法的重大变化，称为灵活的平均通胀目标，或美联储观察人士的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p><p><blockquote>新策略让美联储将通胀率控制在2%的名义目标之上，以弥补之前的不足。实际上，FAIT允许经济在联邦基金利率目标上调之前达到“最大就业”，联邦基金利率目标仍处于0%-0.25%的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p><p><blockquote>美联储才刚刚开始从2020年3月因遏制新冠肺炎而引发的危机期间开始的每月1200亿美元的规模减少大规模证券购买。根据消费者价格指数的最新数据，随着大规模财政注入，这种超宽松的货币政策已将通胀率推高至每年6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认通胀上升幅度超过预期，但他继续看涨期权通胀是暂时的，并认为当供应链问题得到解决后，通胀将会消退。布雷纳德同意美联储缩减购债规模的决定，但可能倾向于在加息前对通胀保持更多耐心。但到目前为止，两者在这一点上的差异很小。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布雷纳德在金融监管问题上一直更加强硬，经常反对放松限制的决定，包括2008-09年金融危机后颁布的多德弗兰克立法所施加的限制。鲍威尔普遍投票支持放松一些限制，这刺激了马萨诸塞州民主党参议员Elizabeth Warren。）对看涨期权来说，他是一个“危险的人”，她说她会反对他的再次提名。</blockquote></p><p> Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔曾被认为是连任的热门人选。耶伦公开支持他保持连续性，并回归第一任总统继续担任美联储主席的传统，即使此人来自另一方。她本人被特朗普拒绝连任美联储主席。她的前任、共和党人本·伯南克被奥巴马授予第二个任期。同样，共和党人艾伦·格林斯潘被比尔·克林顿重新提名，民主党人保罗·沃尔克被罗纳德·里根连任。</blockquote></p><p> But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p><p><blockquote>但最近，耶伦回避了她的支持。“我说过，我认为鲍威尔主席在管理美联储、解决问题方面做得非常好，特别是在大流行来袭时出现的问题，”她周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对全国》节目中表示。“但重要的是拜登总统选择了一个有经验且可信的人，而且候选人有很多。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，鲍威尔和布雷纳德上周都在白宫接受了采访，只有拜登和国家经济委员会主席布莱恩·迪斯在场。考虑到耶伦作为财政部长和前美联储主席的身份，她的缺席值得注意。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p><p><blockquote>“像参议院银行业主席和许多进步民主党人一样，迪斯先生坚信货币政策可以用来应对和解决气候变化、消除种族主义，甚至可能让我12岁的儿子始终如一地整理床铺。没有什么是货币政策——在正确的领导下——解决不了的。这是激进的、非常进步的……甚至是实验性的政策，”总部位于芝加哥的机构期货经纪商R.J.的机构销售董事总经理约翰·布雷迪说。奥布莱恩在一份客户备忘录中尖刻地写道。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德被认为比鲍威尔更同情这种对美联储职权范围的更广泛观点。因此，达拉斯联储前行长理查德·费舍尔的前顾问、奎尔情报咨询服务出版商丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯认为，拜登现在提名布雷纳德将是一场“巨大的赌博”。</blockquote></p><p> She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>她认为两周前的选举结果，特别是共和党在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中的胜利，使民主党更倾向于温和派。此外，她在接受采访时补充道，鲍威尔所代表的美联储连续性的转变会扰乱市场，这是拜登现在最不需要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>迪马蒂诺·布斯还注意到了最后一个奇怪的进展：据彭博社报道，罗杰·弗格森周一晚间表示，在宣布加入阿波罗集团不到一个月后，他不会加入这家私募股权巨头。给出的理由是他仍然对TIAA-CREF负有义务，并于去年3月辞去了该公司首席执行官的职务。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，弗格森曾于1999-2006年担任美联储副主席，并在9/11事件后赢得了美联储危机管理者的赞誉，当时时任美联储主席的格林斯潘在美国遭受恐怖袭击后被困在国外。弗格森也是黑人，考虑到央行多元化的目标，这是一个考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p><p><blockquote>在Predictit上，鲍威尔仍然是最受欢迎的人，他有73%的概率连任，布雷纳德的概率为23%。当然，下注者不会决定结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho Will Be the Next Fed Chair? Why Brainard Is Gaining on Powell.<blockquote>谁将成为下一任美联储主席？为什么布雷纳德正在超越鲍威尔。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-17 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，未来四年谁将领导美联储的决定迫在眉睫，其影响将超越何时开始加息。</blockquote></p><p> The horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.</p><p><blockquote>这场赛马目前在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储理事之一莱尔·布雷纳德之间进行。在货币政策问题上，两人在整个任期内一直意见一致。但在监管和政治问题上，存在重要分歧。乔·拜登总统的决定可能会取决于这些因素，以及谁能在参议院获得50票的重要问题。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社周一晚间报道，参议院银行业主席谢罗德·布朗（俄亥俄州民主党人）表示，白宫官员告诉他，美联储主席的决定“迫在眉睫”，而拜登则在11月2日表示，这一选择将“相当迅速”宣布。”鲍威尔明年二月主席任期届满时谁将领导央行的选择通常会在几周前做出，但显然政府已经忙着让国会通过其关键立法举措。</blockquote></p><p> As with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.</p><p><blockquote>正如目前在参议院陷入困境的社会支出措施“重建得更好”的斗争一样，美联储的选择归结为支持鲍威尔的温和派和更愿意用布雷纳德取代他的进步派之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> Powell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔是共和党人，在2011年被前总统巴拉克·奥巴马选为美联储理事后，被前总统唐纳德·特朗普提名为美联储主席。鲍威尔不是训练有素的经济学家。相反，他拥有法律学位并在私募股权领域工作。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德是民主党人和经济学家，曾在奥巴马和克林顿政府任职。她还为希拉里·克林顿2016年失败的总统竞选做出了贡献。</blockquote></p><p> On matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.</p><p><blockquote>在货币政策问题上——货币政策的中心是央行设定利率和买卖证券以指导整体经济——鲍威尔和布雷纳德之间几乎没有什么区别。他监督了美联储方法的重大变化，称为灵活的平均通胀目标，或美联储观察人士的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.</p><p><blockquote>新策略让美联储将通胀率控制在2%的名义目标之上，以弥补之前的不足。实际上，FAIT允许经济在联邦基金利率目标上调之前达到“最大就业”，联邦基金利率目标仍处于0%-0.25%的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.</p><p><blockquote>美联储才刚刚开始从2020年3月因遏制新冠肺炎而引发的危机期间开始的每月1200亿美元的规模减少大规模证券购买。根据消费者价格指数的最新数据，随着大规模财政注入，这种超宽松的货币政策已将通胀率推高至每年6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Powell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认通胀上升幅度超过预期，但他继续看涨期权通胀是暂时的，并认为当供应链问题得到解决后，通胀将会消退。布雷纳德同意美联储缩减购债规模的决定，但可能倾向于在加息前对通胀保持更多耐心。但到目前为止，两者在这一点上的差异很小。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布雷纳德在金融监管问题上一直更加强硬，经常反对放松限制的决定，包括2008-09年金融危机后颁布的多德弗兰克立法所施加的限制。鲍威尔普遍投票支持放松一些限制，这刺激了马萨诸塞州民主党参议员Elizabeth Warren。）对看涨期权来说，他是一个“危险的人”，她说她会反对他的再次提名。</blockquote></p><p> Powell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔曾被认为是连任的热门人选。耶伦公开支持他保持连续性，并回归第一任总统继续担任美联储主席的传统，即使此人来自另一方。她本人被特朗普拒绝连任美联储主席。她的前任、共和党人本·伯南克被奥巴马授予第二个任期。同样，共和党人艾伦·格林斯潘被比尔·克林顿重新提名，民主党人保罗·沃尔克被罗纳德·里根连任。</blockquote></p><p> But more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”</p><p><blockquote>但最近，耶伦回避了她的支持。“我说过，我认为鲍威尔主席在管理美联储、解决问题方面做得非常好，特别是在大流行来袭时出现的问题，”她周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对全国》节目中表示。“但重要的是拜登总统选择了一个有经验且可信的人，而且候选人有很多。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，鲍威尔和布雷纳德上周都在白宫接受了采访，只有拜登和国家经济委员会主席布莱恩·迪斯在场。考虑到耶伦作为财政部长和前美联储主席的身份，她的缺席值得注意。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.</p><p><blockquote>“像参议院银行业主席和许多进步民主党人一样，迪斯先生坚信货币政策可以用来应对和解决气候变化、消除种族主义，甚至可能让我12岁的儿子始终如一地整理床铺。没有什么是货币政策——在正确的领导下——解决不了的。这是激进的、非常进步的……甚至是实验性的政策，”总部位于芝加哥的机构期货经纪商R.J.的机构销售董事总经理约翰·布雷迪说。奥布莱恩在一份客户备忘录中尖刻地写道。</blockquote></p><p> Brainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德被认为比鲍威尔更同情这种对美联储职权范围的更广泛观点。因此，达拉斯联储前行长理查德·费舍尔的前顾问、奎尔情报咨询服务出版商丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯认为，拜登现在提名布雷纳德将是一场“巨大的赌博”。</blockquote></p><p> She sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>她认为两周前的选举结果，特别是共和党在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中的胜利，使民主党更倾向于温和派。此外，她在接受采访时补充道，鲍威尔所代表的美联储连续性的转变会扰乱市场，这是拜登现在最不需要的事情。</blockquote></p><p> One final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>迪马蒂诺·布斯还注意到了最后一个奇怪的进展：据彭博社报道，罗杰·弗格森周一晚间表示，在宣布加入阿波罗集团不到一个月后，他不会加入这家私募股权巨头。给出的理由是他仍然对TIAA-CREF负有义务，并于去年3月辞去了该公司首席执行官的职务。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，弗格森曾于1999-2006年担任美联储副主席，并在9/11事件后赢得了美联储危机管理者的赞誉，当时时任美联储主席的格林斯潘在美国遭受恐怖袭击后被困在国外。弗格森也是黑人，考虑到央行多元化的目标，这是一个考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> On Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.</p><p><blockquote>在Predictit上，鲍威尔仍然是最受欢迎的人，他有73%的概率连任，布雷纳德的概率为23%。当然，下注者不会决定结果。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/who-will-be-the-next-fed-chair-weighing-the-odds-for-brainard-vs-powell-51637080993?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116775921","content_text":"The decision on who will lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years is reportedly imminent, and the implications will go beyond when interest rates will begin to be raised.\nThe horse race currently is between the current chair, Jerome Powell, and Lael Brainard, one of the Fed Board governors. On matters of monetary policy, the two have been on the same page throughout their tenures. But on regulatory and political matters, there are important differences. The decision by President Joe Biden will likely turn on those factors—plus the important question of who can garner 50 votes in the Senate to be confirmed.\nSenate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) said he was told by White House officials a decision on the Fed chair is “imminent,” Bloomberg reported late Monday, while Biden said on Nov. 2 that the choice would be announced “fairly quickly.” The choice of who would lead the central bank when Powell’s term as chair expires next February typically would have been made weeks ago, but apparently the administration has had its hands full getting its key legislative initiatives through Congress.\nAs with the fight over Build Back Better, the social spending measure now mired in the Senate, the choice at the Fed comes down to the tug of war between moderates, who favor Powell, and progressives, who would prefer to replace him with Brainard.\nPowell is a Republican who was nominated by former President Donald Trump as Fed chair after having been picked as a Fed governor by former President Barack Obama in 2011. Powell isn’t a trained economist. Instead, he has a law degree and worked in private equity.\nBrainard is a Democrat and an economist who served in the Obama and Clinton administrations. She also contributed to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 unsuccessful presidential campaign.\nOn matters of monetary policy—which centers on the setting of interest rates and the purchase or sale of securities by the central bank to guide the overall economy—there is little difference between Powell and Brainard. He has overseen a significant change in the Fed’s approach, called Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, or FAIT to Fed watchers.\nThe new tack lets the Fed have inflation run above its 2% nominal target to make up for previous shortfalls. In practical terms, FAIT allows the economy to reach “maximum employment” before the federal-funds rate target, which remains at a rock-bottom 0%-0.25%, is raised.\nThe Fed is only beginning to reduce its massive securities purchases from the $120 billion monthly pace started during the crisis period of March 2020 triggered by the shutdowns to curb Covid-19. Along with massive fiscal injections, this ultra-easy monetary policy has lifted inflation to over 6% annually, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.\nPowell has admitted inflation has risen more than expected, but he continues to call it transitory and argue it will subside when supply-chain kinks are worked out. Brainard concurred with the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying but may lean toward more patience on inflation before hiking rates. But until now, the differences on that score are minimal between the two.\nBrainard, however, has been tougher on matters of financial regulation, dissenting regularly on decisions to ease restraints, including those imposed by the Dodd-Frank legislation enacted following the 2008-09 financial crisis. Powell has generally voted in favor of loosening some curbs, which spurred Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) to call him a “dangerous man” whose renomination she said she would would oppose.\nPowell had been thought to be the favorite to be tapped for a second term. Yellen has publicly backed him to maintain continuity and to return to the tradition of a first-term president keeping the sitting Fed chair, even if that person was from the other party. She herself was denied a second term as Fed chair by Trump. Her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, a Republican, was given a second term by Obama. Similarly, Republican Alan Greenspan was renominated by Bill Clinton, and Democrat Paul Volcker was given a second term by Ronald Reagan.\nBut more recently, Yellen has hedged her endorsement. “I’ve said that I think chair Powell has done a very good job of running the Fed, of addressing the issues, particularly that arose when the pandemic struck,” she said Sunday on CBS ‘s Face the Nation. “But what’s important is that President Biden choose someone who’s experienced and credible and there are a range of candidates.”\nPowell and Brainard were both reported to have been interviewed at the White House last week, with only Biden and National Economic Council head Brian Deese present. Yellen’s absence was notable given both her status as Treasury secretary and as the former Fed chair.\n“Like the Senate Banking Chairman and many progressive Democrats, Mr. Deese firmly believes that monetary policy can be used to tackle and solve climate change, eliminate racism, and perhaps even get my 12-year-old son to consistently make his bed. There’s NOTHING that monetary policy—with the right leadership—cannot solve. It’s activist, very progressive…even experimental policy,” John Brady, managing director of institutional sales at Chicago-based institutional futures broker R.J. O’Brien, acidly writes in a client note.\nBrainard is seen as more sympathetic to this broader view of the Fed’s remit than Powell. As such, Danielle DiMartino Booth, former adviser to Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Fed president, and publisher of the Quill Intelligence advisory service, thinks it would be a “massive gamble” for Biden to nominate Brainard now.\nShe sees the election results of two weeks ago, especially the Republican victory in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as moving Democrats more toward the moderates. Moreover, a shift away from the continuity at the Fed that Powell represents would like roil the markets, which is the last thing Biden needs now, she adds in an interview.\nOne final curious development also noted by DiMartino Booth: Roger Ferguson late Monday said he wouldn’t join Apollo Group less than a month after the announcement he would come aboard the private-equity powerhouse, according to Bloomberg. The reason given was he still had obligations to TIAA-CREF, from which he resigned last March as chief executive.\nBefore that, Ferguson was Fed vice chair in 1999-2006 and won plaudits as the central bank’s crisis manager after 9/11, when Greenspan, then the Fed chief, was stuck out of the country following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. Ferguson also is Black, a consideration given the goal of diversity at the central bank.\nOn Predictit, Powell is still the heavy betting favorite, with a 73% probability of getting another term with Brainard at 23%. Of course, the bettors don’t set the outcome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":889,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/878085686"}
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