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百忍Byron

百忍Byron

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2021-10-06

Wow

Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>

2021-10-02

Yea

Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>

2021-10-01

Ok

Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>

2021-09-12

Ok

Tesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote>

2021-08-27

Over

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-25

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-25

Alright

Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high<blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，创下新高</blockquote>

2021-08-24

Like leh

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-23

Ok

The Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote>

2021-08-22

Yea

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-18

Yea

6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-08-14

As usual

Virgin Galactic falls as billionaire Branson sells stake worth $300 million<blockquote>亿万富翁布兰森出售价值3亿美元股份，维珍银河股价下跌</blockquote>

2021-08-10

Wow

EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>

2021-08-02

Nice

NIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, and rose 1% in premarket trading<blockquote>蔚来2021年7月交付7,931辆汽车，盘前交易上涨1%</blockquote>

2021-07-31

Wow

AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>

2021-07-26

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

Hoprfully it dips

What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>

2021-07-25

Nah

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-22

Scary

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-20

Like

抱歉，原内容已删除

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633078771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199143925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199143925","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro ide","content":"<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-01 16:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","NWSA":"新闻集团","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199143925","content_text":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.\nTake a look at CNBC Pro’s list.Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&P 500′s 16% gain.\nAlaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.\nPower generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.\nOther names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"NWSA":0.9,"TMUS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864472509,"gmtCreate":1633143233255,"gmtModify":1633143233356,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yea","listText":"Yea","text":"Yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864472509","repostId":"1199143925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199143925","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633078771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199143925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199143925","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro ide","content":"<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-01 16:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","NWSA":"新闻集团","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199143925","content_text":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.\nTake a look at CNBC Pro’s list.Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&P 500′s 16% gain.\nAlaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.\nPower generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.\nOther names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"NWSA":0.9,"TMUS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864867358,"gmtCreate":1633090835046,"gmtModify":1633090835160,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864867358","repostId":"1199143925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199143925","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633078771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199143925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199143925","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro ide","content":"<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-01 16:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","NWSA":"新闻集团","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199143925","content_text":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.\nTake a look at CNBC Pro’s list.Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&P 500′s 16% gain.\nAlaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.\nPower generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.\nOther names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"NWSA":0.9,"TMUS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888350599,"gmtCreate":1631442545511,"gmtModify":1631892025856,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888350599","repostId":"2166726753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166726753","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631326722,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2166726753?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 10:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166726753","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.","content":"<p>Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示将高性能Model Y在华售价提高1万元至38.79万元-特斯拉微博。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491c8dbad3baf69e3c07a30dbacd6b95\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-11 10:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示将高性能Model Y在华售价提高1万元至38.79万元-特斯拉微博。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491c8dbad3baf69e3c07a30dbacd6b95\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166726753","content_text":"Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819980772,"gmtCreate":1630027257196,"gmtModify":1704954794836,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Over","listText":"Over","text":"Over","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819980772","repostId":"2162507820","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837370813,"gmtCreate":1629859947132,"gmtModify":1631892025881,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837370813","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837347596,"gmtCreate":1629859906215,"gmtModify":1631892025893,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837347596","repostId":"1118949007","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118949007","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629815206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118949007?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 22:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high<blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，创下新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118949007","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high.\n\nBy and large, investors know Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) as the ","content":"<p>Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab79065de74f4b0228bb6a8dd5a1ec02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> By and large, investors know Alphabet Inc. (<b>GOOGL</b>) as the parent company of the search engine that everybody and their uncle uses: Google. I am definitely bullish on GOOGL stock.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，投资者都知道Alphabet公司（<b>GOOGL</b>）作为每个人和他们的叔叔使用的搜索引擎的母公司：谷歌。我绝对看好GOOGL股票。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, the Google search portal is so famous that in the popular lexicon, “Google” is both a noun and a verb.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，谷歌搜索门户如此著名，以至于在流行词典中，“谷歌”既是名词又是动词。</blockquote></p><p> It’s perfectly fine to invest in GOOGL stock because so many people use the company’s search engine. However, stock traders might also choose to look at other angles when considering an investment.</p><p><blockquote>投资GOOGL股票完全没问题，因为很多人使用该公司的搜索引擎。然而，股票交易者在考虑投资时也可能选择从其他角度考虑。</blockquote></p><p> As we’ll see, the stock could actually be considered a bargain. Moreover, Google’s products give customers what they want: the latest in cutting-edge communications technology.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们将看到的，该股票实际上可以被认为是便宜货。此外，谷歌的产品为客户提供了他们想要的：最新的尖端通信技术。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Quick Look at GOOGL Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速浏览GOOGL股票</b></blockquote></p><p> At first glance, it might seem ridiculous to say that GOOGL stock is cheap. After all, this is a stock that costs nearly $3,000 per share.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，说GOOGL股票便宜似乎很荒谬。毕竟，这是一只每股价值近3000美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, GOOGL stock reached a new 52-week high of $2,817.49 on Monday. It has steadily gone up over the past year, with hardly any breaks or corrections.</p><p><blockquote>此外，GOOGL股价周一创下2817.49美元的52周新高。在过去的一年里，它稳步上升，几乎没有任何突破或修正。</blockquote></p><p> That should be fine for momentum-focused traders, but value-oriented investors might think that GOOGL stock is too expensive to buy now.</p><p><blockquote>这对于注重动量的交易者来说应该没问题，但价值导向的投资者可能会认为GOOGL股票太贵了，现在不值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, let’s consider a different angle. If the company’s earnings are robust, then the high price tag of the stock might be fully justified.</p><p><blockquote>然而，让我们考虑一个不同的角度。如果公司的盈利强劲，那么该股的高价可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> As it turns out, Alphabet’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 30.5. That’s not too bad, especially for a technology stock in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，Alphabet过去12个月的市盈率为30.5。这还不算太糟糕，尤其是对于2021年的科技股来说。</blockquote></p><p> So, just maybe, GOOGL stock is still a bargain after all.</p><p><blockquote>所以，也许GOOGL的股票仍然很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the New Google Meet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>认识新的Google Meet</b></blockquote></p><p> If you’re going to take away anything from this, it should be that there’s more to Google than its search engine.</p><p><blockquote>如果你要从中得到什么，那应该是谷歌不仅仅是它的搜索引擎。</blockquote></p><p> One example would be Google Meet, the company’s video-conferencing software.</p><p><blockquote>一个例子是该公司的视频会议软件Google Meet。</blockquote></p><p> Without a doubt, Google would like to capture a bigger share of the visual-communication software market.<i>Fortune Business Insights</i>reported that this market was worth $5.77 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，谷歌希望在视觉通信软件市场占据更大的份额。<i>财富商业洞察</i>报道称，2020年这一市场价值57.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, this market is projected to reach $6.28 billion in 2021, and $12.99 billion in 2028, thereby exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% from 2021 to 2028.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该市场预计将在2021年达到62.8亿美元，在2028年达到129.9亿美元，因此从2021年到2028年的CAGR为10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Google Meet’s new features should help the company take a bigger slice of this rich pie.</p><p><blockquote>Google Meet的新功能应该有助于该公司在这块丰厚的蛋糕中分得更大的一杯羹。</blockquote></p><p> The new features include the ability to add up to 25 co-hosts for meetings. Furthermore, hosts and co-hosts will be able to limit the number of users who can share screens, send messages, and mute others.</p><p><blockquote>新功能包括能够为会议添加多达25名共同主持人。此外，主持人和共同主持人将能够限制可以共享屏幕、发送消息和使其他人静音的用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Affordable Smartphone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济实惠的智能手机</b></blockquote></p><p> Let’s face it: not everyone is ready to buy a $1,200 smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>让我们面对现实吧：不是每个人都准备好购买1200美元的智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, people want high quality. Now, with the launch of the Google Pixel 5a, shoppers don’t have to compromise quality or affordability.</p><p><blockquote>同时，人们想要高质量。现在，随着谷歌Pixel 5a的推出，购物者不必在质量或可负担性上妥协。</blockquote></p><p> Granted, Google already unveiled its Pixel 6 and Pixel Pro smartphones, but those are high-end and pricier. There’s a market for lower-priced smartphones, and Google is aggressively pursuing this market with the Pixel 5a.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，谷歌已经推出了Pixel 6和Pixel Pro智能手机，但这些都是高端且价格更高。低价智能手机有一个市场，谷歌正通过Pixel 5a积极开拓这个市场。</blockquote></p><p> We’re talking about a $449 price tag, which is less than half the price of the most expensive smartphones on the market today.</p><p><blockquote>我们谈论的是449美元的价格标签，不到当今市场上最昂贵的智能手机价格的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the phone’s features include 5G functionality, a dual-camera system, and IP67 water and dust resistance.</p><p><blockquote>这款手机的一些功能包括5G功能、双摄像头系统和IP67防水防尘性能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street Weighs In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街也参与其中</b></blockquote></p><p> According to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, GOOGL is a Strong Buy, based on 29 unanimous Buy ratings. The&nbsp;average Alphabet price target&nbsp;is $3,176.18, implying 13.4% upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>根据TipRanks的分析师评级共识，基于29个一致买入评级，GOOGL的评级为强力买入。Alphabet的平均目标价为3,176.18美元，意味着13.4%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28be6712f40ae45fa1c1ca53a6200ce0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> </p><p> <b>Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> While GOOGL stock might seem expensive — and there’s no denying that it’s pricey — a valuation analysis reveals that it’s also a pretty good bargain.</p><p><blockquote>虽然GOOGL的股票可能看起来很贵——不可否认它很贵——但估值分析显示它也很划算。</blockquote></p><p> Just as importantly, Alphabet shouldn’t be pigeonholed as just a search-engine provider.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是，Alphabet不应该仅仅被归类为搜索引擎提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The company is expanding quickly into other value-added markets with intriguing products and services, which prospective investors should take into consideration.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在迅速扩展到其他增值市场，提供引人入胜的产品和服务，潜在投资者应该考虑这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high<blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，创下新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high<blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，创下新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-24 22:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab79065de74f4b0228bb6a8dd5a1ec02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> By and large, investors know Alphabet Inc. (<b>GOOGL</b>) as the parent company of the search engine that everybody and their uncle uses: Google. I am definitely bullish on GOOGL stock.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，投资者都知道Alphabet公司（<b>GOOGL</b>）作为每个人和他们的叔叔使用的搜索引擎的母公司：谷歌。我绝对看好GOOGL股票。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, the Google search portal is so famous that in the popular lexicon, “Google” is both a noun and a verb.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，谷歌搜索门户如此著名，以至于在流行词典中，“谷歌”既是名词又是动词。</blockquote></p><p> It’s perfectly fine to invest in GOOGL stock because so many people use the company’s search engine. However, stock traders might also choose to look at other angles when considering an investment.</p><p><blockquote>投资GOOGL股票完全没问题，因为很多人使用该公司的搜索引擎。然而，股票交易者在考虑投资时也可能选择从其他角度考虑。</blockquote></p><p> As we’ll see, the stock could actually be considered a bargain. Moreover, Google’s products give customers what they want: the latest in cutting-edge communications technology.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们将看到的，该股票实际上可以被认为是便宜货。此外，谷歌的产品为客户提供了他们想要的：最新的尖端通信技术。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Quick Look at GOOGL Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速浏览GOOGL股票</b></blockquote></p><p> At first glance, it might seem ridiculous to say that GOOGL stock is cheap. After all, this is a stock that costs nearly $3,000 per share.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，说GOOGL股票便宜似乎很荒谬。毕竟，这是一只每股价值近3000美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, GOOGL stock reached a new 52-week high of $2,817.49 on Monday. It has steadily gone up over the past year, with hardly any breaks or corrections.</p><p><blockquote>此外，GOOGL股价周一创下2817.49美元的52周新高。在过去的一年里，它稳步上升，几乎没有任何突破或修正。</blockquote></p><p> That should be fine for momentum-focused traders, but value-oriented investors might think that GOOGL stock is too expensive to buy now.</p><p><blockquote>这对于注重动量的交易者来说应该没问题，但价值导向的投资者可能会认为GOOGL股票太贵了，现在不值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, let’s consider a different angle. If the company’s earnings are robust, then the high price tag of the stock might be fully justified.</p><p><blockquote>然而，让我们考虑一个不同的角度。如果公司的盈利强劲，那么该股的高价可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> As it turns out, Alphabet’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 30.5. That’s not too bad, especially for a technology stock in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，Alphabet过去12个月的市盈率为30.5。这还不算太糟糕，尤其是对于2021年的科技股来说。</blockquote></p><p> So, just maybe, GOOGL stock is still a bargain after all.</p><p><blockquote>所以，也许GOOGL的股票仍然很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the New Google Meet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>认识新的Google Meet</b></blockquote></p><p> If you’re going to take away anything from this, it should be that there’s more to Google than its search engine.</p><p><blockquote>如果你要从中得到什么，那应该是谷歌不仅仅是它的搜索引擎。</blockquote></p><p> One example would be Google Meet, the company’s video-conferencing software.</p><p><blockquote>一个例子是该公司的视频会议软件Google Meet。</blockquote></p><p> Without a doubt, Google would like to capture a bigger share of the visual-communication software market.<i>Fortune Business Insights</i>reported that this market was worth $5.77 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，谷歌希望在视觉通信软件市场占据更大的份额。<i>财富商业洞察</i>报道称，2020年这一市场价值57.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, this market is projected to reach $6.28 billion in 2021, and $12.99 billion in 2028, thereby exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% from 2021 to 2028.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该市场预计将在2021年达到62.8亿美元，在2028年达到129.9亿美元，因此从2021年到2028年的CAGR为10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Google Meet’s new features should help the company take a bigger slice of this rich pie.</p><p><blockquote>Google Meet的新功能应该有助于该公司在这块丰厚的蛋糕中分得更大的一杯羹。</blockquote></p><p> The new features include the ability to add up to 25 co-hosts for meetings. Furthermore, hosts and co-hosts will be able to limit the number of users who can share screens, send messages, and mute others.</p><p><blockquote>新功能包括能够为会议添加多达25名共同主持人。此外，主持人和共同主持人将能够限制可以共享屏幕、发送消息和使其他人静音的用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Affordable Smartphone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济实惠的智能手机</b></blockquote></p><p> Let’s face it: not everyone is ready to buy a $1,200 smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>让我们面对现实吧：不是每个人都准备好购买1200美元的智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, people want high quality. Now, with the launch of the Google Pixel 5a, shoppers don’t have to compromise quality or affordability.</p><p><blockquote>同时，人们想要高质量。现在，随着谷歌Pixel 5a的推出，购物者不必在质量或可负担性上妥协。</blockquote></p><p> Granted, Google already unveiled its Pixel 6 and Pixel Pro smartphones, but those are high-end and pricier. There’s a market for lower-priced smartphones, and Google is aggressively pursuing this market with the Pixel 5a.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，谷歌已经推出了Pixel 6和Pixel Pro智能手机，但这些都是高端且价格更高。低价智能手机有一个市场，谷歌正通过Pixel 5a积极开拓这个市场。</blockquote></p><p> We’re talking about a $449 price tag, which is less than half the price of the most expensive smartphones on the market today.</p><p><blockquote>我们谈论的是449美元的价格标签，不到当今市场上最昂贵的智能手机价格的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the phone’s features include 5G functionality, a dual-camera system, and IP67 water and dust resistance.</p><p><blockquote>这款手机的一些功能包括5G功能、双摄像头系统和IP67防水防尘性能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street Weighs In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街也参与其中</b></blockquote></p><p> According to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, GOOGL is a Strong Buy, based on 29 unanimous Buy ratings. The&nbsp;average Alphabet price target&nbsp;is $3,176.18, implying 13.4% upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>根据TipRanks的分析师评级共识，基于29个一致买入评级，GOOGL的评级为强力买入。Alphabet的平均目标价为3,176.18美元，意味着13.4%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28be6712f40ae45fa1c1ca53a6200ce0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> </p><p> <b>Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> While GOOGL stock might seem expensive — and there’s no denying that it’s pricey — a valuation analysis reveals that it’s also a pretty good bargain.</p><p><blockquote>虽然GOOGL的股票可能看起来很贵——不可否认它很贵——但估值分析显示它也很划算。</blockquote></p><p> Just as importantly, Alphabet shouldn’t be pigeonholed as just a search-engine provider.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是，Alphabet不应该仅仅被归类为搜索引擎提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The company is expanding quickly into other value-added markets with intriguing products and services, which prospective investors should take into consideration.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在迅速扩展到其他增值市场，提供引人入胜的产品和服务，潜在投资者应该考虑这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118949007","content_text":"Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high.\n\nBy and large, investors know Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) as the parent company of the search engine that everybody and their uncle uses: Google. I am definitely bullish on GOOGL stock.\nAmazingly, the Google search portal is so famous that in the popular lexicon, “Google” is both a noun and a verb.\nIt’s perfectly fine to invest in GOOGL stock because so many people use the company’s search engine. However, stock traders might also choose to look at other angles when considering an investment.\nAs we’ll see, the stock could actually be considered a bargain. Moreover, Google’s products give customers what they want: the latest in cutting-edge communications technology.\nA Quick Look at GOOGL Stock\nAt first glance, it might seem ridiculous to say that GOOGL stock is cheap. After all, this is a stock that costs nearly $3,000 per share.\nMoreover, GOOGL stock reached a new 52-week high of $2,817.49 on Monday. It has steadily gone up over the past year, with hardly any breaks or corrections.\nThat should be fine for momentum-focused traders, but value-oriented investors might think that GOOGL stock is too expensive to buy now.\nYet, let’s consider a different angle. If the company’s earnings are robust, then the high price tag of the stock might be fully justified.\nAs it turns out, Alphabet’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 30.5. That’s not too bad, especially for a technology stock in 2021.\nSo, just maybe, GOOGL stock is still a bargain after all.\nMeet the New Google Meet\nIf you’re going to take away anything from this, it should be that there’s more to Google than its search engine.\nOne example would be Google Meet, the company’s video-conferencing software.\nWithout a doubt, Google would like to capture a bigger share of the visual-communication software market.Fortune Business Insightsreported that this market was worth $5.77 billion in 2020.\nFurthermore, this market is projected to reach $6.28 billion in 2021, and $12.99 billion in 2028, thereby exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% from 2021 to 2028.\nGoogle Meet’s new features should help the company take a bigger slice of this rich pie.\nThe new features include the ability to add up to 25 co-hosts for meetings. Furthermore, hosts and co-hosts will be able to limit the number of users who can share screens, send messages, and mute others.\nAn Affordable Smartphone\nLet’s face it: not everyone is ready to buy a $1,200 smartphone.\nAt the same time, people want high quality. Now, with the launch of the Google Pixel 5a, shoppers don’t have to compromise quality or affordability.\nGranted, Google already unveiled its Pixel 6 and Pixel Pro smartphones, but those are high-end and pricier. There’s a market for lower-priced smartphones, and Google is aggressively pursuing this market with the Pixel 5a.\nWe’re talking about a $449 price tag, which is less than half the price of the most expensive smartphones on the market today.\nSome of the phone’s features include 5G functionality, a dual-camera system, and IP67 water and dust resistance.\nWall Street Weighs In\nAccording to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, GOOGL is a Strong Buy, based on 29 unanimous Buy ratings. The average Alphabet price target is $3,176.18, implying 13.4% upside potential.\n\n\n\nTakeaways\nWhile GOOGL stock might seem expensive — and there’s no denying that it’s pricey — a valuation analysis reveals that it’s also a pretty good bargain.\nJust as importantly, Alphabet shouldn’t be pigeonholed as just a search-engine provider.\nThe company is expanding quickly into other value-added markets with intriguing products and services, which prospective investors should take into consideration.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834302891,"gmtCreate":1629770014013,"gmtModify":1631892025906,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like leh","listText":"Like leh","text":"Like leh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834302891","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835298463,"gmtCreate":1629718383652,"gmtModify":1631892025920,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835298463","repostId":"1111103954","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111103954","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629675616,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111103954?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111103954","media":"Barrons","summary":"Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.\nBack then, the worl","content":"<p>Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>半导体可能是新的石油——这可能会使2020年代成为新的1970年代。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.</p><p><blockquote>当时，世界依赖石油——供应的任何变化都会对需求产生巨大影响。当欧佩克在20世纪70年代对美国实施禁运时，原油价格从本世纪初的每桶约3美元上涨到世纪末的每桶13美元。美国甚至在1974年发行了汽油配给券。</blockquote></p><p> The spike was good news for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil</a>, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.</p><p><blockquote>这一飙升对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>20世纪70年代，该公司的回报率分别约为100%和70%，但随着通货膨胀的加剧，这对其他所有人来说都是痛苦的。十年来，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别仅上涨17%和5%。</blockquote></p><p> If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.</p><p><blockquote>如果说石油是20世纪70年代经济的必要组成部分，那么芯片在21世纪20年代也提供了同样的功能。它们为从我们的电脑和电话到我们的汽车和电器的一切提供动力。而且，众所周知，根据Susquehanna Financial Group的数据，现在存在短缺，交货时间延长至20周以上。</blockquote></p><p> Roughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.</p><p><blockquote>全球大约80%的芯片是在东北亚制造的。政治家们意识到这是一个多么大的问题，他们已经开始要求本地制造，总统乔·拜登今年早些时候推出了一项500亿美元的芯片研究计划。包括半导体在内的任何行业回流都是一个长达数年的过程，需要数十亿美元的资本。会有赢家和输家。而如果持续太久，就会渗透到各类商品的价格中。</blockquote></p><p> “Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.</p><p><blockquote>TS Lombard的罗里·格林(Rory Green)和史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)在一月份写道：“与需求快速上升相关的短缺可能会引发通货膨胀。”当时芯片——“一种以价格稳步下降而闻名的产品”——的短缺还处于起步阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>&nbsp;this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺全年都是汽车行业的眼中钉。它本应在2021年下半年自行解决。但宣布的更多减产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>过去的一周表明这个问题不会很快消失。事实上，加拿大皇家银行分析师约瑟夫·斯帕克认为，短缺可能会持续数年。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.</p><p><blockquote>斯帕克说，部分问题是结构性的。电动汽车需要更多的计算能力，但汽车行业通常依赖于老一代芯片技术，芯片制造商不太容易增加容量。相反，他们更愿意专注于消费电子行业更新、更高端的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> The result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：加油站不再排队，而是汽车经销商排队。新车和二手车库存较低推高了价格，并导致通胀上升。2021年上半年二手车价格上涨约20%，新车价格上涨约3%。二手车价格上涨开始放缓，但新车价格上涨正在加速，7月份同比上涨约7%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a> shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>这对消费者不利，但汽车制造商将受益。生产受限将导致持续低库存和更高定价。公司将销售更少的汽车，但这被更高的价格所抵消。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>2021年，该公司股价分别上涨43%和17%，两家公司的市盈率仍约为2022年市盈率的七倍。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a>. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.</p><p><blockquote>这还只是汽车行业。芯片短缺持续的时间越长，各类产品的价格上涨就越多。这将有利于芯片制造商，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>华尔街看到了后者的优势。约三分之二的分析师表示买入该股，平均目标价意味着约33%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望RadioShack外面会排起长队，但预计芯片短缺也会有同样的感觉。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>半导体可能是新的石油——这可能会使2020年代成为新的1970年代。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.</p><p><blockquote>当时，世界依赖石油——供应的任何变化都会对需求产生巨大影响。当欧佩克在20世纪70年代对美国实施禁运时，原油价格从本世纪初的每桶约3美元上涨到世纪末的每桶13美元。美国甚至在1974年发行了汽油配给券。</blockquote></p><p> The spike was good news for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil</a>, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.</p><p><blockquote>这一飙升对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>20世纪70年代，该公司的回报率分别约为100%和70%，但随着通货膨胀的加剧，这对其他所有人来说都是痛苦的。十年来，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别仅上涨17%和5%。</blockquote></p><p> If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.</p><p><blockquote>如果说石油是20世纪70年代经济的必要组成部分，那么芯片在21世纪20年代也提供了同样的功能。它们为从我们的电脑和电话到我们的汽车和电器的一切提供动力。而且，众所周知，根据Susquehanna Financial Group的数据，现在存在短缺，交货时间延长至20周以上。</blockquote></p><p> Roughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.</p><p><blockquote>全球大约80%的芯片是在东北亚制造的。政治家们意识到这是一个多么大的问题，他们已经开始要求本地制造，总统乔·拜登今年早些时候推出了一项500亿美元的芯片研究计划。包括半导体在内的任何行业回流都是一个长达数年的过程，需要数十亿美元的资本。会有赢家和输家。而如果持续太久，就会渗透到各类商品的价格中。</blockquote></p><p> “Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.</p><p><blockquote>TS Lombard的罗里·格林(Rory Green)和史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)在一月份写道：“与需求快速上升相关的短缺可能会引发通货膨胀。”当时芯片——“一种以价格稳步下降而闻名的产品”——的短缺还处于起步阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>&nbsp;this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺全年都是汽车行业的眼中钉。它本应在2021年下半年自行解决。但宣布的更多减产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>过去的一周表明这个问题不会很快消失。事实上，加拿大皇家银行分析师约瑟夫·斯帕克认为，短缺可能会持续数年。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.</p><p><blockquote>斯帕克说，部分问题是结构性的。电动汽车需要更多的计算能力，但汽车行业通常依赖于老一代芯片技术，芯片制造商不太容易增加容量。相反，他们更愿意专注于消费电子行业更新、更高端的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> The result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：加油站不再排队，而是汽车经销商排队。新车和二手车库存较低推高了价格，并导致通胀上升。2021年上半年二手车价格上涨约20%，新车价格上涨约3%。二手车价格上涨开始放缓，但新车价格上涨正在加速，7月份同比上涨约7%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a> shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>这对消费者不利，但汽车制造商将受益。生产受限将导致持续低库存和更高定价。公司将销售更少的汽车，但这被更高的价格所抵消。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>2021年，该公司股价分别上涨43%和17%，两家公司的市盈率仍约为2022年市盈率的七倍。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a>. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.</p><p><blockquote>这还只是汽车行业。芯片短缺持续的时间越长，各类产品的价格上涨就越多。这将有利于芯片制造商，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>华尔街看到了后者的优势。约三分之二的分析师表示买入该股，平均目标价意味着约33%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望RadioShack外面会排起长队，但预计芯片短缺也会有同样的感觉。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-stocks-economy-51629507891?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚","AMD":"美国超微公司","TSM":"台积电","INTC":"英特尔","MU":"美光科技","CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-stocks-economy-51629507891?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111103954","content_text":"Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.\nBack then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.\nThe spike was good news for Chevron and Exxon Mobil, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.\nIf oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.\nRoughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.\n“Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.\nThe global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by Toyota this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.\nPart of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.\nThe result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.\nThat’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. Ford and General Motors shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.\nAnd that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.\nDon’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"CVX":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"XOM":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832808621,"gmtCreate":1629602677363,"gmtModify":1631892025930,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yea","listText":"Yea","text":"Yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832808621","repostId":"2161745814","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831397711,"gmtCreate":1629286558233,"gmtModify":1631892025945,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yea","listText":"Yea","text":"Yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831397711","repostId":"1119160710","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119160710","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629269542,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119160710?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p><p><blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了<b><i>6-积极的市场月份</i></b>排成一行。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i>   <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i>   <i>“</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“另一个‘危险信号’是标普500已连续6个月获得正回报。</i><i><b>如下图10年月图表所示，这样的条纹很少见，当它们真的出现时，它们通常会遇到一个月甚至更长时间的负收益。</b></i><i>“</i><i>（同样值得注意的是，当12个月RSI处于这种超买状态时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</i></blockquote></p><p> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，在上面的图表中，我只回到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6-积极的市场月份-长期</b></blockquote></p><p> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p><p><blockquote>利用罗伯特·希勒博士的长期名义股票市场数据，我计算了每月的正回报，然后突出显示了6个月或更长时间的正市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p><p><blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>  <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>  <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>所有连续表演的时期最终都会结束。</b><i>（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期牛市期间往往会忘记这一点。）</i></li><li><i>鉴于极长的市场历史，</i><i><b>如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</b></i></li><li><i>这样的表演期经常，但不总是，</i><i><b>在相当不错的市场调整或熊市之前。</b></i></li></ol>下表显示了连续2个月或以上正回报的所有时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p><p><blockquote>该表显示，在近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后是至少一个月的消极表现。23%的时间出现连续三个阳性月，只有14%的时间持续到4个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p><p><blockquote><b>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次6个月或更长时间的正回报。</b>总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或更长时间的周期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有调整。</blockquote></p><p> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在每个时期，这种运行都以至少一个负回报月结束，但绝大多数都以更深的调整结束。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>这次不一样</u></b></blockquote></p><p> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，不存在对<i>“风险”</i>在金融市场作为<i>“看涨偏见”</i>仍然不受约束。由于美联储仍每月动用1200亿美元的流动性，投资者了解到<i>“殴打将继续下去，直到士气好转。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p><p><blockquote>市场上涨当然有可能继续有增无减，进入历史上最长的时期之一。唯一的问题是什么时候结束，回调幅度有多大？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p><p><blockquote><b>什么会导致修正不得而知？</b>原因在于，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者<i>“价格”</i>那个<i>“风险”</i>进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格会迅速下跌<i>“风险”</i>减少。</blockquote></p><p> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么市场在2020年2月的“疫情”面前表现得相当好。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的“外生”事件是完整的<i>“关机”</i>经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p><p><blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者纷纷“退出”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>修正的大小</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</b></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场极度偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线上方。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，通常会导致20%或更多的修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们在<i><b>“过去的表现并不能保证。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>  There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p><p><blockquote><i>“这也是投资者应该关注他们所承担的‘风险’的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延伸、偏离和看涨。”</i>历史上只有6次市场同时如此长期、看涨和超买。这些时期中的每一个都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p><p><blockquote>重要的是，72个月移动平均线自1925年以来一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反该移动平均线的情况很少见，并且仅发生在<i>“均值回复”</i>熊市。<b>目前，修正72个月移动平均线需要下跌36.5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p><p><blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能<i>“看涨情绪。”</i>然而，在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前，同样的情绪比比皆是。</blockquote></p><p> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于与长期均值的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>进入野兽的肚子</u></b></blockquote></p><p> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p><p><blockquote>目前市场定价为完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p><p><blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望，而此时许多层面的估值仍然过高。</blockquote></p><p> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p><p><blockquote>由于各种原因，八月和九月的市场表现历来疲软。然而，鉴于市场已经出现了6个积极的月份，回调的风险已经明显上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>新总统的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。</b>随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储潜在讨论<i>“逐渐变细”</i>资产购买，以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要做<i>“幽灵”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p><p><blockquote>关键是<i>“风险”</i>修正的幅度现在提高了。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>这意味着什么和不意味着什么</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p><p><blockquote>让我重复以下内容，以免混淆。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>  As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“这种分析并不意味着你应该‘卖掉一切’和‘藏在现金里’。”</b></i>一如既往，长期投资组合管理是关于管理<i>“风险”</i>由<i>“调整”</i>随着时间的推移。</blockquote></p><p> If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有<i>“马马虎虎”</i>在牌桌上，你可以少下注或弃牌。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着你站起来完全离开桌子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这一分析最支持的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>修剪获胜位置</i></b><i>回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即止盈）</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>卖出那些不起作用的头寸。</i></b><i>如果它们在反弹期间没有与市场一起反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会下跌更多。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>向上移动跟踪止损</i></b><i>达到新的水平。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>根据您的风险承受能力检查您的投资组合分配。</i></b><i>如果您在市场周期的这个阶段对股票进行了积极的配置，您可能需要尝试回忆一下您在2008年的感受。提高现金水平，并相应增加固定收益，以减少相对市场敞口。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p><p><blockquote><b>我会错吗？</b>绝对的。</blockquote></p><p> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果这些指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote></p><p> What’s worse:</p><p><blockquote>更糟的是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i>暂时错过长期进步的初始阶段，或者；</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>花时间恢复平衡，这和赚钱不一样。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的<b><i>交易规则：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>   <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b>   <b>&nbsp;–</b>   <i>Todd Harrison</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><b><i>弥补机会比损失资本容易得多。”</i></b><b> –</b><i>托德·哈里森</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 14:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p><p><blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了<b><i>6-积极的市场月份</i></b>排成一行。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i>   <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i>   <i>“</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“另一个‘危险信号’是标普500已连续6个月获得正回报。</i><i><b>如下图10年月图表所示，这样的条纹很少见，当它们真的出现时，它们通常会遇到一个月甚至更长时间的负收益。</b></i><i>“</i><i>（同样值得注意的是，当12个月RSI处于这种超买状态时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</i></blockquote></p><p> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，在上面的图表中，我只回到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6-积极的市场月份-长期</b></blockquote></p><p> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p><p><blockquote>利用罗伯特·希勒博士的长期名义股票市场数据，我计算了每月的正回报，然后突出显示了6个月或更长时间的正市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p><p><blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>  <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>  <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>所有连续表演的时期最终都会结束。</b><i>（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期牛市期间往往会忘记这一点。）</i></li><li><i>鉴于极长的市场历史，</i><i><b>如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</b></i></li><li><i>这样的表演期经常，但不总是，</i><i><b>在相当不错的市场调整或熊市之前。</b></i></li></ol>下表显示了连续2个月或以上正回报的所有时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p><p><blockquote>该表显示，在近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后是至少一个月的消极表现。23%的时间出现连续三个阳性月，只有14%的时间持续到4个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p><p><blockquote><b>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次6个月或更长时间的正回报。</b>总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或更长时间的周期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有调整。</blockquote></p><p> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在每个时期，这种运行都以至少一个负回报月结束，但绝大多数都以更深的调整结束。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>这次不一样</u></b></blockquote></p><p> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，不存在对<i>“风险”</i>在金融市场作为<i>“看涨偏见”</i>仍然不受约束。由于美联储仍每月动用1200亿美元的流动性，投资者了解到<i>“殴打将继续下去，直到士气好转。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p><p><blockquote>市场上涨当然有可能继续有增无减，进入历史上最长的时期之一。唯一的问题是什么时候结束，回调幅度有多大？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p><p><blockquote><b>什么会导致修正不得而知？</b>原因在于，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者<i>“价格”</i>那个<i>“风险”</i>进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格会迅速下跌<i>“风险”</i>减少。</blockquote></p><p> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么市场在2020年2月的“疫情”面前表现得相当好。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的“外生”事件是完整的<i>“关机”</i>经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p><p><blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者纷纷“退出”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>修正的大小</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</b></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场极度偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线上方。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，通常会导致20%或更多的修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们在<i><b>“过去的表现并不能保证。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>  There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p><p><blockquote><i>“这也是投资者应该关注他们所承担的‘风险’的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延伸、偏离和看涨。”</i>历史上只有6次市场同时如此长期、看涨和超买。这些时期中的每一个都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p><p><blockquote>重要的是，72个月移动平均线自1925年以来一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反该移动平均线的情况很少见，并且仅发生在<i>“均值回复”</i>熊市。<b>目前，修正72个月移动平均线需要下跌36.5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p><p><blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能<i>“看涨情绪。”</i>然而，在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前，同样的情绪比比皆是。</blockquote></p><p> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于与长期均值的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>进入野兽的肚子</u></b></blockquote></p><p> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p><p><blockquote>目前市场定价为完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p><p><blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望，而此时许多层面的估值仍然过高。</blockquote></p><p> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p><p><blockquote>由于各种原因，八月和九月的市场表现历来疲软。然而，鉴于市场已经出现了6个积极的月份，回调的风险已经明显上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>新总统的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。</b>随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储潜在讨论<i>“逐渐变细”</i>资产购买，以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要做<i>“幽灵”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p><p><blockquote>关键是<i>“风险”</i>修正的幅度现在提高了。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>这意味着什么和不意味着什么</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p><p><blockquote>让我重复以下内容，以免混淆。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>  As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“这种分析并不意味着你应该‘卖掉一切’和‘藏在现金里’。”</b></i>一如既往，长期投资组合管理是关于管理<i>“风险”</i>由<i>“调整”</i>随着时间的推移。</blockquote></p><p> If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有<i>“马马虎虎”</i>在牌桌上，你可以少下注或弃牌。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着你站起来完全离开桌子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这一分析最支持的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>修剪获胜位置</i></b><i>回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即止盈）</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>卖出那些不起作用的头寸。</i></b><i>如果它们在反弹期间没有与市场一起反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会下跌更多。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>向上移动跟踪止损</i></b><i>达到新的水平。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>根据您的风险承受能力检查您的投资组合分配。</i></b><i>如果您在市场周期的这个阶段对股票进行了积极的配置，您可能需要尝试回忆一下您在2008年的感受。提高现金水平，并相应增加固定收益，以减少相对市场敞口。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p><p><blockquote><b>我会错吗？</b>绝对的。</blockquote></p><p> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果这些指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote></p><p> What’s worse:</p><p><blockquote>更糟的是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i>暂时错过长期进步的初始阶段，或者；</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>花时间恢复平衡，这和赚钱不一样。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的<b><i>交易规则：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>   <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b>   <b>&nbsp;–</b>   <i>Todd Harrison</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><b><i>弥补机会比损失资本容易得多。”</i></b><b> –</b><i>托德·哈里森</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897883535,"gmtCreate":1628905627327,"gmtModify":1631892025957,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As usual","listText":"As usual","text":"As usual","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897883535","repostId":"1114512346","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114512346","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628862113,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114512346?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 21:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic falls as billionaire Branson sells stake worth $300 million<blockquote>亿万富翁布兰森出售价值3亿美元股份，维珍银河股价下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114512346","media":"Reuters","summary":"Shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc fell more than 1% on Friday after its founder and British bil","content":"<p>Shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc fell more than 1% on Friday after its founder and British billionaire Richard Branson sold a portion of his stake for nearly $300 million.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河控股公司(Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc)创始人、英国亿万富翁理查德·布兰森(Richard Branson)以近3亿美元的价格出售了部分股份，该公司股价周五下跌超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Branson sold more than 10 million shares between Aug. 10 and 12, according to a regulatory filing&nbsp;from late Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>根据周四晚间提交的监管文件，布兰森在8月10日至12日期间出售了超过1000万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> The move comes a month after the space tourism company completed its first fully crewed test flight into space with Branson on board.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，这家太空旅游公司完成了首次载人太空试飞，布兰森也在船上。</blockquote></p><p> The latest share sale leaves Branson with about 46.3 million shares worth roughly $1.2 billion as of stock's last closing price. He had in April sold stock worth over $150 million.</p><p><blockquote>最新的股票出售使布兰森拥有约4630万股股票，截至股票最后收盘价，价值约12亿美元。他在4月份出售了价值超过1.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Branson's Virgin Investments is one of the biggest shareholders of the space tourism company and has a stake of about 22% as of June, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，布兰森的维珍投资公司是这家太空旅游公司的最大股东之一，截至6月份持有约22%的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic falls as billionaire Branson sells stake worth $300 million<blockquote>亿万富翁布兰森出售价值3亿美元股份，维珍银河股价下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic falls as billionaire Branson sells stake worth $300 million<blockquote>亿万富翁布兰森出售价值3亿美元股份，维珍银河股价下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 21:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc fell more than 1% on Friday after its founder and British billionaire Richard Branson sold a portion of his stake for nearly $300 million.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河控股公司(Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc)创始人、英国亿万富翁理查德·布兰森(Richard Branson)以近3亿美元的价格出售了部分股份，该公司股价周五下跌超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Branson sold more than 10 million shares between Aug. 10 and 12, according to a regulatory filing&nbsp;from late Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>根据周四晚间提交的监管文件，布兰森在8月10日至12日期间出售了超过1000万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> The move comes a month after the space tourism company completed its first fully crewed test flight into space with Branson on board.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，这家太空旅游公司完成了首次载人太空试飞，布兰森也在船上。</blockquote></p><p> The latest share sale leaves Branson with about 46.3 million shares worth roughly $1.2 billion as of stock's last closing price. He had in April sold stock worth over $150 million.</p><p><blockquote>最新的股票出售使布兰森拥有约4630万股股票，截至股票最后收盘价，价值约12亿美元。他在4月份出售了价值超过1.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Branson's Virgin Investments is one of the biggest shareholders of the space tourism company and has a stake of about 22% as of June, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，布兰森的维珍投资公司是这家太空旅游公司的最大股东之一，截至6月份持有约22%的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virgin-galactic-falls-billionaire-branson-132508203.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virgin-galactic-falls-billionaire-branson-132508203.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114512346","content_text":"Shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc fell more than 1% on Friday after its founder and British billionaire Richard Branson sold a portion of his stake for nearly $300 million.\nBranson sold more than 10 million shares between Aug. 10 and 12, according to a regulatory filing from late Thursday.\nThe move comes a month after the space tourism company completed its first fully crewed test flight into space with Branson on board.\nThe latest share sale leaves Branson with about 46.3 million shares worth roughly $1.2 billion as of stock's last closing price. He had in April sold stock worth over $150 million.\nBranson's Virgin Investments is one of the biggest shareholders of the space tourism company and has a stake of about 22% as of June, according to Refinitiv data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896600189,"gmtCreate":1628573313941,"gmtModify":1631892025971,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896600189","repostId":"1122174975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122174975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628257533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122174975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122174975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 6)&nbsp;$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell 0.41%; $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ , $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ fell over 1%; $Li Auto(LI)$ fell 0.80%.","content":"<p>(Aug 6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> fell 0.41%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a> fell over 1%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a> fell 0.80%.</p><p><blockquote>（8月6日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌0.41%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超1%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>下跌0.80%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc49234e47a8e48665d95c05d103786\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-06 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> fell 0.41%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a> fell over 1%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a> fell 0.80%.</p><p><blockquote>（8月6日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌0.41%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超1%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>下跌0.80%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc49234e47a8e48665d95c05d103786\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122174975","content_text":"(Aug 6) Tesla Motors fell 0.41%; NIO Inc. , XPeng Inc. fell over 1%; Li Auto fell 0.80%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805762091,"gmtCreate":1627907856913,"gmtModify":1633755419629,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805762091","repostId":"1193646270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193646270","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627891794,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193646270?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 16:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, and rose 1% in premarket trading<blockquote>蔚来2021年7月交付7,931辆汽车，盘前交易上涨1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193646270","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" $NIO Inc.$ delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, representing a strong 124.5% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,702 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,669 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,560 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. As of July 31, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 125,528 vehicles.","content":"<p>(August&nbsp;2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, representing a strong 124.5% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,702 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,669 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,560 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. As of July 31, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 125,528 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>（8月2日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>2021年7月交付7,931辆汽车，同比强劲增长124.5%。交付量包括1,702辆ES8（该公司的六座或七座旗舰高级智能电动SUV）、3,669辆ES6（该公司的五座高性能高级智能电动SUV）以及2,560辆EC6（该公司的五座高级智能电动轿跑SUV）。截至2021年7月31日，ES8、ES6和EC6的累计交付量达到125,528辆。</blockquote></p><p> NIO rose about 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在盘前交易中上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ee37756815b9785621385b00cfc549\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, and rose 1% in premarket trading<blockquote>蔚来2021年7月交付7,931辆汽车，盘前交易上涨1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, and rose 1% in premarket trading<blockquote>蔚来2021年7月交付7,931辆汽车，盘前交易上涨1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 16:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August&nbsp;2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, representing a strong 124.5% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,702 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,669 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,560 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. As of July 31, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 125,528 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>（8月2日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>2021年7月交付7,931辆汽车，同比强劲增长124.5%。交付量包括1,702辆ES8（该公司的六座或七座旗舰高级智能电动SUV）、3,669辆ES6（该公司的五座高性能高级智能电动SUV）以及2,560辆EC6（该公司的五座高级智能电动轿跑SUV）。截至2021年7月31日，ES8、ES6和EC6的累计交付量达到125,528辆。</blockquote></p><p> NIO rose about 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在盘前交易中上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ee37756815b9785621385b00cfc549\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193646270","content_text":"(August 2) NIO Inc. delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, representing a strong 124.5% year-over-year growth. The deliveries consisted of 1,702 ES8s, the Company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV, 3,669 ES6s, the Company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV, and 2,560 EC6s, the Company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV. As of July 31, 2021, cumulative deliveries of the ES8, ES6 and EC6 reached 125,528 vehicles.\nNIO rose about 1% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802023105,"gmtCreate":1627700280307,"gmtModify":1633756976574,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802023105","repostId":"1135561812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135561812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627637430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135561812?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135561812","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors  and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这是很低的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 17:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这是很低的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135561812","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.\nAMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.\n\nJay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images\nAMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.\nWhy AMD is worth $120\nBefore I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.\nI expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.\nTurning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.\n(Source:AMD)\nThe most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.\n(Source:AMD)\nTurning to cash flow.\nAMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.\nAMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nAMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.\n(Source:AMD)\nAMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.\nChallenges to my price target\nThe biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.\nSoftening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.\nFinal thoughts\nAMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800500275,"gmtCreate":1627307226497,"gmtModify":1633766304287,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800500275","repostId":"2154570979","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177101887,"gmtCreate":1627184112449,"gmtModify":1633767357449,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hoprfully it dips","listText":"Hoprfully it dips","text":"Hoprfully it dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177101887","repostId":"2153938547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153938547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627085070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153938547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望实现智能手机业务的大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 08:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望实现智能手机业务的大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177103524,"gmtCreate":1627184078668,"gmtModify":1633767358144,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nah","listText":"Nah","text":"Nah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177103524","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176770678,"gmtCreate":1626918190194,"gmtModify":1633769755051,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Scary&nbsp;","listText":"Scary&nbsp;","text":"Scary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176770678","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171423217,"gmtCreate":1626757741639,"gmtModify":1633771295310,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171423217","repostId":"1116573791","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":888350599,"gmtCreate":1631442545511,"gmtModify":1631892025856,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888350599","repostId":"2166726753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166726753","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631326722,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2166726753?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 10:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166726753","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.","content":"<p>Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示将高性能Model Y在华售价提高1万元至38.79万元-特斯拉微博。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491c8dbad3baf69e3c07a30dbacd6b95\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-11 10:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示将高性能Model Y在华售价提高1万元至38.79万元-特斯拉微博。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491c8dbad3baf69e3c07a30dbacd6b95\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166726753","content_text":"Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176770678,"gmtCreate":1626918190194,"gmtModify":1633769755051,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Scary&nbsp;","listText":"Scary&nbsp;","text":"Scary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176770678","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864472509,"gmtCreate":1633143233255,"gmtModify":1633143233356,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yea","listText":"Yea","text":"Yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864472509","repostId":"1199143925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199143925","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633078771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199143925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199143925","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro ide","content":"<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-01 16:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","NWSA":"新闻集团","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199143925","content_text":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.\nTake a look at CNBC Pro’s list.Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&P 500′s 16% gain.\nAlaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.\nPower generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.\nOther names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"NWSA":0.9,"TMUS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832808621,"gmtCreate":1629602677363,"gmtModify":1631892025930,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yea","listText":"Yea","text":"Yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832808621","repostId":"2161745814","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149728199,"gmtCreate":1625749860211,"gmtModify":1631888361184,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149728199","repostId":"1140589344","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864867358,"gmtCreate":1633090835046,"gmtModify":1633090835160,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864867358","repostId":"1199143925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199143925","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633078771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199143925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199143925","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro ide","content":"<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 stocks that Wall Street’s picks for Q4<blockquote>华尔街第四季度精选的十大股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-01 16:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.</p><p><blockquote>为了找到华尔街认为可能在第四季度推动市场走高的股票，CNBC Pro确定了至少70%分析师表示买入的股票。然后，我们发现该池中排名前10的股票按共识12个月价格目标上涨空间排名。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at CNBC Pro’s list.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae083b97e4feaf3496a1e1d77d78429\" tg-width=\"1360\" tg-height=\"1466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&amp;P 500′s 16% gain.</p><p><blockquote>看看CNBC Pro的列表。位居潜在上涨榜首的是《华尔街日报》出版商道琼斯的母公司新闻集团。分析师平均预计该股在未来12个月内将上涨37.4%。该股今年的表现也优于大盘，上涨了33%，而标普500的涨幅为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Alaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.</p><p><blockquote>阿拉斯加航空集团是屏幕上最受欢迎的股票。93%的分析师对该航空公司股票给予买入评级。分析师认为阿拉斯加航空明年可能上涨27.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Power generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.</p><p><blockquote>发电机公司Generac制作了CNBC Pro的屏幕，并在榜单中拥有今年迄今为止最好的表现。截至周三收盘，该股已上涨近80%。华尔街认为Generac还有更大的运行空间，共识潜在上涨空间为25.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Other names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>其他出现在CNBC Pro屏幕上的公司包括通用汽车、T-Mobile和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","NWSA":"新闻集团","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199143925","content_text":"To find the names Wall Street thinks could take the market higher in th fourth quarter, CNBC Pro identified the stocks with at least 70% of analysts say to buy. We then found the top 10 stocks from that pool ranked by consensus 12-month price target upside.\nTake a look at CNBC Pro’s list.Topping the list for potential upside is News Corp, the parent company of The Wall Street Journal-publisher Dow Jones. Analysts on average see the stock rallying 37.4% in the next 12-months. The stock is also outperforming the market this year, rising 33% compared with the S&P 500′s 16% gain.\nAlaska Air Group is the most liked stock on the Street from the screen. The airline stock has a buy rating from 93% of analysts covering the name. Analysts think Alaska Air can rise 27.7% in the next year.\nPower generator company Generac makes CNBC Pro’s screen and has the best year-to-date performance out of the list. The stock has gained nearly 80% as of Wednesday’s close. Wall Street thinks Generac has more room to run with consensus potential upside of 25.4%.\nOther names to make CNBC Pro’s screen include General Motors, T-Mobile and PayPal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"NWSA":0.9,"TMUS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":837370813,"gmtCreate":1629859947132,"gmtModify":1631892025881,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837370813","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177103524,"gmtCreate":1627184078668,"gmtModify":1633767358144,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nah","listText":"Nah","text":"Nah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177103524","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146120693,"gmtCreate":1626060211712,"gmtModify":1631884665235,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"China rebound. US correction.&nbsp;","listText":"China rebound. US correction.&nbsp;","text":"China rebound. US correction.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146120693","repostId":"1172063633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148250431,"gmtCreate":1625981421823,"gmtModify":1633931121147,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazon!","listText":"Amazon!","text":"Amazon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148250431","repostId":"1177397700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834302891,"gmtCreate":1629770014013,"gmtModify":1631892025906,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like leh","listText":"Like leh","text":"Like leh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834302891","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177101887,"gmtCreate":1627184112449,"gmtModify":1633767357449,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hoprfully it dips","listText":"Hoprfully it dips","text":"Hoprfully it dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177101887","repostId":"2153938547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153938547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627085070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153938547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望实现智能手机业务的大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 08:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望实现智能手机业务的大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173083394,"gmtCreate":1626585830018,"gmtModify":1631885615574,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Netflix wins for the moment.","listText":"Netflix wins for the moment.","text":"Netflix wins for the moment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173083394","repostId":"2152897876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837347596,"gmtCreate":1629859906215,"gmtModify":1631892025893,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837347596","repostId":"1118949007","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118949007","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629815206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118949007?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 22:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high<blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，创下新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118949007","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high.\n\nBy and large, investors know Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) as the ","content":"<p>Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab79065de74f4b0228bb6a8dd5a1ec02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> By and large, investors know Alphabet Inc. (<b>GOOGL</b>) as the parent company of the search engine that everybody and their uncle uses: Google. I am definitely bullish on GOOGL stock.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，投资者都知道Alphabet公司（<b>GOOGL</b>）作为每个人和他们的叔叔使用的搜索引擎的母公司：谷歌。我绝对看好GOOGL股票。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, the Google search portal is so famous that in the popular lexicon, “Google” is both a noun and a verb.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，谷歌搜索门户如此著名，以至于在流行词典中，“谷歌”既是名词又是动词。</blockquote></p><p> It’s perfectly fine to invest in GOOGL stock because so many people use the company’s search engine. However, stock traders might also choose to look at other angles when considering an investment.</p><p><blockquote>投资GOOGL股票完全没问题，因为很多人使用该公司的搜索引擎。然而，股票交易者在考虑投资时也可能选择从其他角度考虑。</blockquote></p><p> As we’ll see, the stock could actually be considered a bargain. Moreover, Google’s products give customers what they want: the latest in cutting-edge communications technology.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们将看到的，该股票实际上可以被认为是便宜货。此外，谷歌的产品为客户提供了他们想要的：最新的尖端通信技术。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Quick Look at GOOGL Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速浏览GOOGL股票</b></blockquote></p><p> At first glance, it might seem ridiculous to say that GOOGL stock is cheap. After all, this is a stock that costs nearly $3,000 per share.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，说GOOGL股票便宜似乎很荒谬。毕竟，这是一只每股价值近3000美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, GOOGL stock reached a new 52-week high of $2,817.49 on Monday. It has steadily gone up over the past year, with hardly any breaks or corrections.</p><p><blockquote>此外，GOOGL股价周一创下2817.49美元的52周新高。在过去的一年里，它稳步上升，几乎没有任何突破或修正。</blockquote></p><p> That should be fine for momentum-focused traders, but value-oriented investors might think that GOOGL stock is too expensive to buy now.</p><p><blockquote>这对于注重动量的交易者来说应该没问题，但价值导向的投资者可能会认为GOOGL股票太贵了，现在不值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, let’s consider a different angle. If the company’s earnings are robust, then the high price tag of the stock might be fully justified.</p><p><blockquote>然而，让我们考虑一个不同的角度。如果公司的盈利强劲，那么该股的高价可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> As it turns out, Alphabet’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 30.5. That’s not too bad, especially for a technology stock in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，Alphabet过去12个月的市盈率为30.5。这还不算太糟糕，尤其是对于2021年的科技股来说。</blockquote></p><p> So, just maybe, GOOGL stock is still a bargain after all.</p><p><blockquote>所以，也许GOOGL的股票仍然很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the New Google Meet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>认识新的Google Meet</b></blockquote></p><p> If you’re going to take away anything from this, it should be that there’s more to Google than its search engine.</p><p><blockquote>如果你要从中得到什么，那应该是谷歌不仅仅是它的搜索引擎。</blockquote></p><p> One example would be Google Meet, the company’s video-conferencing software.</p><p><blockquote>一个例子是该公司的视频会议软件Google Meet。</blockquote></p><p> Without a doubt, Google would like to capture a bigger share of the visual-communication software market.<i>Fortune Business Insights</i>reported that this market was worth $5.77 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，谷歌希望在视觉通信软件市场占据更大的份额。<i>财富商业洞察</i>报道称，2020年这一市场价值57.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, this market is projected to reach $6.28 billion in 2021, and $12.99 billion in 2028, thereby exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% from 2021 to 2028.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该市场预计将在2021年达到62.8亿美元，在2028年达到129.9亿美元，因此从2021年到2028年的CAGR为10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Google Meet’s new features should help the company take a bigger slice of this rich pie.</p><p><blockquote>Google Meet的新功能应该有助于该公司在这块丰厚的蛋糕中分得更大的一杯羹。</blockquote></p><p> The new features include the ability to add up to 25 co-hosts for meetings. Furthermore, hosts and co-hosts will be able to limit the number of users who can share screens, send messages, and mute others.</p><p><blockquote>新功能包括能够为会议添加多达25名共同主持人。此外，主持人和共同主持人将能够限制可以共享屏幕、发送消息和使其他人静音的用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Affordable Smartphone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济实惠的智能手机</b></blockquote></p><p> Let’s face it: not everyone is ready to buy a $1,200 smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>让我们面对现实吧：不是每个人都准备好购买1200美元的智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, people want high quality. Now, with the launch of the Google Pixel 5a, shoppers don’t have to compromise quality or affordability.</p><p><blockquote>同时，人们想要高质量。现在，随着谷歌Pixel 5a的推出，购物者不必在质量或可负担性上妥协。</blockquote></p><p> Granted, Google already unveiled its Pixel 6 and Pixel Pro smartphones, but those are high-end and pricier. There’s a market for lower-priced smartphones, and Google is aggressively pursuing this market with the Pixel 5a.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，谷歌已经推出了Pixel 6和Pixel Pro智能手机，但这些都是高端且价格更高。低价智能手机有一个市场，谷歌正通过Pixel 5a积极开拓这个市场。</blockquote></p><p> We’re talking about a $449 price tag, which is less than half the price of the most expensive smartphones on the market today.</p><p><blockquote>我们谈论的是449美元的价格标签，不到当今市场上最昂贵的智能手机价格的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the phone’s features include 5G functionality, a dual-camera system, and IP67 water and dust resistance.</p><p><blockquote>这款手机的一些功能包括5G功能、双摄像头系统和IP67防水防尘性能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street Weighs In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街也参与其中</b></blockquote></p><p> According to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, GOOGL is a Strong Buy, based on 29 unanimous Buy ratings. The&nbsp;average Alphabet price target&nbsp;is $3,176.18, implying 13.4% upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>根据TipRanks的分析师评级共识，基于29个一致买入评级，GOOGL的评级为强力买入。Alphabet的平均目标价为3,176.18美元，意味着13.4%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28be6712f40ae45fa1c1ca53a6200ce0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> </p><p> <b>Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> While GOOGL stock might seem expensive — and there’s no denying that it’s pricey — a valuation analysis reveals that it’s also a pretty good bargain.</p><p><blockquote>虽然GOOGL的股票可能看起来很贵——不可否认它很贵——但估值分析显示它也很划算。</blockquote></p><p> Just as importantly, Alphabet shouldn’t be pigeonholed as just a search-engine provider.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是，Alphabet不应该仅仅被归类为搜索引擎提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The company is expanding quickly into other value-added markets with intriguing products and services, which prospective investors should take into consideration.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在迅速扩展到其他增值市场，提供引人入胜的产品和服务，潜在投资者应该考虑这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high<blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，创下新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high<blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，创下新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-24 22:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet股价上涨1.3%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab79065de74f4b0228bb6a8dd5a1ec02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> By and large, investors know Alphabet Inc. (<b>GOOGL</b>) as the parent company of the search engine that everybody and their uncle uses: Google. I am definitely bullish on GOOGL stock.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，投资者都知道Alphabet公司（<b>GOOGL</b>）作为每个人和他们的叔叔使用的搜索引擎的母公司：谷歌。我绝对看好GOOGL股票。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, the Google search portal is so famous that in the popular lexicon, “Google” is both a noun and a verb.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，谷歌搜索门户如此著名，以至于在流行词典中，“谷歌”既是名词又是动词。</blockquote></p><p> It’s perfectly fine to invest in GOOGL stock because so many people use the company’s search engine. However, stock traders might also choose to look at other angles when considering an investment.</p><p><blockquote>投资GOOGL股票完全没问题，因为很多人使用该公司的搜索引擎。然而，股票交易者在考虑投资时也可能选择从其他角度考虑。</blockquote></p><p> As we’ll see, the stock could actually be considered a bargain. Moreover, Google’s products give customers what they want: the latest in cutting-edge communications technology.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们将看到的，该股票实际上可以被认为是便宜货。此外，谷歌的产品为客户提供了他们想要的：最新的尖端通信技术。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Quick Look at GOOGL Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速浏览GOOGL股票</b></blockquote></p><p> At first glance, it might seem ridiculous to say that GOOGL stock is cheap. After all, this is a stock that costs nearly $3,000 per share.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，说GOOGL股票便宜似乎很荒谬。毕竟，这是一只每股价值近3000美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, GOOGL stock reached a new 52-week high of $2,817.49 on Monday. It has steadily gone up over the past year, with hardly any breaks or corrections.</p><p><blockquote>此外，GOOGL股价周一创下2817.49美元的52周新高。在过去的一年里，它稳步上升，几乎没有任何突破或修正。</blockquote></p><p> That should be fine for momentum-focused traders, but value-oriented investors might think that GOOGL stock is too expensive to buy now.</p><p><blockquote>这对于注重动量的交易者来说应该没问题，但价值导向的投资者可能会认为GOOGL股票太贵了，现在不值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, let’s consider a different angle. If the company’s earnings are robust, then the high price tag of the stock might be fully justified.</p><p><blockquote>然而，让我们考虑一个不同的角度。如果公司的盈利强劲，那么该股的高价可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> As it turns out, Alphabet’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 30.5. That’s not too bad, especially for a technology stock in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，Alphabet过去12个月的市盈率为30.5。这还不算太糟糕，尤其是对于2021年的科技股来说。</blockquote></p><p> So, just maybe, GOOGL stock is still a bargain after all.</p><p><blockquote>所以，也许GOOGL的股票仍然很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the New Google Meet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>认识新的Google Meet</b></blockquote></p><p> If you’re going to take away anything from this, it should be that there’s more to Google than its search engine.</p><p><blockquote>如果你要从中得到什么，那应该是谷歌不仅仅是它的搜索引擎。</blockquote></p><p> One example would be Google Meet, the company’s video-conferencing software.</p><p><blockquote>一个例子是该公司的视频会议软件Google Meet。</blockquote></p><p> Without a doubt, Google would like to capture a bigger share of the visual-communication software market.<i>Fortune Business Insights</i>reported that this market was worth $5.77 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，谷歌希望在视觉通信软件市场占据更大的份额。<i>财富商业洞察</i>报道称，2020年这一市场价值57.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, this market is projected to reach $6.28 billion in 2021, and $12.99 billion in 2028, thereby exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% from 2021 to 2028.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该市场预计将在2021年达到62.8亿美元，在2028年达到129.9亿美元，因此从2021年到2028年的CAGR为10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Google Meet’s new features should help the company take a bigger slice of this rich pie.</p><p><blockquote>Google Meet的新功能应该有助于该公司在这块丰厚的蛋糕中分得更大的一杯羹。</blockquote></p><p> The new features include the ability to add up to 25 co-hosts for meetings. Furthermore, hosts and co-hosts will be able to limit the number of users who can share screens, send messages, and mute others.</p><p><blockquote>新功能包括能够为会议添加多达25名共同主持人。此外，主持人和共同主持人将能够限制可以共享屏幕、发送消息和使其他人静音的用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Affordable Smartphone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济实惠的智能手机</b></blockquote></p><p> Let’s face it: not everyone is ready to buy a $1,200 smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>让我们面对现实吧：不是每个人都准备好购买1200美元的智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, people want high quality. Now, with the launch of the Google Pixel 5a, shoppers don’t have to compromise quality or affordability.</p><p><blockquote>同时，人们想要高质量。现在，随着谷歌Pixel 5a的推出，购物者不必在质量或可负担性上妥协。</blockquote></p><p> Granted, Google already unveiled its Pixel 6 and Pixel Pro smartphones, but those are high-end and pricier. There’s a market for lower-priced smartphones, and Google is aggressively pursuing this market with the Pixel 5a.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，谷歌已经推出了Pixel 6和Pixel Pro智能手机，但这些都是高端且价格更高。低价智能手机有一个市场，谷歌正通过Pixel 5a积极开拓这个市场。</blockquote></p><p> We’re talking about a $449 price tag, which is less than half the price of the most expensive smartphones on the market today.</p><p><blockquote>我们谈论的是449美元的价格标签，不到当今市场上最昂贵的智能手机价格的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the phone’s features include 5G functionality, a dual-camera system, and IP67 water and dust resistance.</p><p><blockquote>这款手机的一些功能包括5G功能、双摄像头系统和IP67防水防尘性能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street Weighs In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街也参与其中</b></blockquote></p><p> According to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, GOOGL is a Strong Buy, based on 29 unanimous Buy ratings. The&nbsp;average Alphabet price target&nbsp;is $3,176.18, implying 13.4% upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>根据TipRanks的分析师评级共识，基于29个一致买入评级，GOOGL的评级为强力买入。Alphabet的平均目标价为3,176.18美元，意味着13.4%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28be6712f40ae45fa1c1ca53a6200ce0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> </p><p> <b>Takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> While GOOGL stock might seem expensive — and there’s no denying that it’s pricey — a valuation analysis reveals that it’s also a pretty good bargain.</p><p><blockquote>虽然GOOGL的股票可能看起来很贵——不可否认它很贵——但估值分析显示它也很划算。</blockquote></p><p> Just as importantly, Alphabet shouldn’t be pigeonholed as just a search-engine provider.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是，Alphabet不应该仅仅被归类为搜索引擎提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The company is expanding quickly into other value-added markets with intriguing products and services, which prospective investors should take into consideration.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在迅速扩展到其他增值市场，提供引人入胜的产品和服务，潜在投资者应该考虑这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118949007","content_text":"Alphabet shares rose 1.3% to a new high.\n\nBy and large, investors know Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) as the parent company of the search engine that everybody and their uncle uses: Google. I am definitely bullish on GOOGL stock.\nAmazingly, the Google search portal is so famous that in the popular lexicon, “Google” is both a noun and a verb.\nIt’s perfectly fine to invest in GOOGL stock because so many people use the company’s search engine. However, stock traders might also choose to look at other angles when considering an investment.\nAs we’ll see, the stock could actually be considered a bargain. Moreover, Google’s products give customers what they want: the latest in cutting-edge communications technology.\nA Quick Look at GOOGL Stock\nAt first glance, it might seem ridiculous to say that GOOGL stock is cheap. After all, this is a stock that costs nearly $3,000 per share.\nMoreover, GOOGL stock reached a new 52-week high of $2,817.49 on Monday. It has steadily gone up over the past year, with hardly any breaks or corrections.\nThat should be fine for momentum-focused traders, but value-oriented investors might think that GOOGL stock is too expensive to buy now.\nYet, let’s consider a different angle. If the company’s earnings are robust, then the high price tag of the stock might be fully justified.\nAs it turns out, Alphabet’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 30.5. That’s not too bad, especially for a technology stock in 2021.\nSo, just maybe, GOOGL stock is still a bargain after all.\nMeet the New Google Meet\nIf you’re going to take away anything from this, it should be that there’s more to Google than its search engine.\nOne example would be Google Meet, the company’s video-conferencing software.\nWithout a doubt, Google would like to capture a bigger share of the visual-communication software market.Fortune Business Insightsreported that this market was worth $5.77 billion in 2020.\nFurthermore, this market is projected to reach $6.28 billion in 2021, and $12.99 billion in 2028, thereby exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% from 2021 to 2028.\nGoogle Meet’s new features should help the company take a bigger slice of this rich pie.\nThe new features include the ability to add up to 25 co-hosts for meetings. Furthermore, hosts and co-hosts will be able to limit the number of users who can share screens, send messages, and mute others.\nAn Affordable Smartphone\nLet’s face it: not everyone is ready to buy a $1,200 smartphone.\nAt the same time, people want high quality. Now, with the launch of the Google Pixel 5a, shoppers don’t have to compromise quality or affordability.\nGranted, Google already unveiled its Pixel 6 and Pixel Pro smartphones, but those are high-end and pricier. There’s a market for lower-priced smartphones, and Google is aggressively pursuing this market with the Pixel 5a.\nWe’re talking about a $449 price tag, which is less than half the price of the most expensive smartphones on the market today.\nSome of the phone’s features include 5G functionality, a dual-camera system, and IP67 water and dust resistance.\nWall Street Weighs In\nAccording to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, GOOGL is a Strong Buy, based on 29 unanimous Buy ratings. The average Alphabet price target is $3,176.18, implying 13.4% upside potential.\n\n\n\nTakeaways\nWhile GOOGL stock might seem expensive — and there’s no denying that it’s pricey — a valuation analysis reveals that it’s also a pretty good bargain.\nJust as importantly, Alphabet shouldn’t be pigeonholed as just a search-engine provider.\nThe company is expanding quickly into other value-added markets with intriguing products and services, which prospective investors should take into consideration.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831397711,"gmtCreate":1629286558233,"gmtModify":1631892025945,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yea","listText":"Yea","text":"Yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831397711","repostId":"1119160710","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119160710","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629269542,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119160710?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p><p><blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了<b><i>6-积极的市场月份</i></b>排成一行。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i>   <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i>   <i>“</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“另一个‘危险信号’是标普500已连续6个月获得正回报。</i><i><b>如下图10年月图表所示，这样的条纹很少见，当它们真的出现时，它们通常会遇到一个月甚至更长时间的负收益。</b></i><i>“</i><i>（同样值得注意的是，当12个月RSI处于这种超买状态时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</i></blockquote></p><p> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，在上面的图表中，我只回到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6-积极的市场月份-长期</b></blockquote></p><p> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p><p><blockquote>利用罗伯特·希勒博士的长期名义股票市场数据，我计算了每月的正回报，然后突出显示了6个月或更长时间的正市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p><p><blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>  <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>  <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>所有连续表演的时期最终都会结束。</b><i>（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期牛市期间往往会忘记这一点。）</i></li><li><i>鉴于极长的市场历史，</i><i><b>如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</b></i></li><li><i>这样的表演期经常，但不总是，</i><i><b>在相当不错的市场调整或熊市之前。</b></i></li></ol>下表显示了连续2个月或以上正回报的所有时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p><p><blockquote>该表显示，在近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后是至少一个月的消极表现。23%的时间出现连续三个阳性月，只有14%的时间持续到4个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p><p><blockquote><b>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次6个月或更长时间的正回报。</b>总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或更长时间的周期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有调整。</blockquote></p><p> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在每个时期，这种运行都以至少一个负回报月结束，但绝大多数都以更深的调整结束。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>这次不一样</u></b></blockquote></p><p> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，不存在对<i>“风险”</i>在金融市场作为<i>“看涨偏见”</i>仍然不受约束。由于美联储仍每月动用1200亿美元的流动性，投资者了解到<i>“殴打将继续下去，直到士气好转。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p><p><blockquote>市场上涨当然有可能继续有增无减，进入历史上最长的时期之一。唯一的问题是什么时候结束，回调幅度有多大？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p><p><blockquote><b>什么会导致修正不得而知？</b>原因在于，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者<i>“价格”</i>那个<i>“风险”</i>进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格会迅速下跌<i>“风险”</i>减少。</blockquote></p><p> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么市场在2020年2月的“疫情”面前表现得相当好。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的“外生”事件是完整的<i>“关机”</i>经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p><p><blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者纷纷“退出”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>修正的大小</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</b></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场极度偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线上方。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，通常会导致20%或更多的修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们在<i><b>“过去的表现并不能保证。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>  There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p><p><blockquote><i>“这也是投资者应该关注他们所承担的‘风险’的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延伸、偏离和看涨。”</i>历史上只有6次市场同时如此长期、看涨和超买。这些时期中的每一个都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p><p><blockquote>重要的是，72个月移动平均线自1925年以来一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反该移动平均线的情况很少见，并且仅发生在<i>“均值回复”</i>熊市。<b>目前，修正72个月移动平均线需要下跌36.5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p><p><blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能<i>“看涨情绪。”</i>然而，在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前，同样的情绪比比皆是。</blockquote></p><p> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于与长期均值的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>进入野兽的肚子</u></b></blockquote></p><p> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p><p><blockquote>目前市场定价为完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p><p><blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望，而此时许多层面的估值仍然过高。</blockquote></p><p> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p><p><blockquote>由于各种原因，八月和九月的市场表现历来疲软。然而，鉴于市场已经出现了6个积极的月份，回调的风险已经明显上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>新总统的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。</b>随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储潜在讨论<i>“逐渐变细”</i>资产购买，以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要做<i>“幽灵”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p><p><blockquote>关键是<i>“风险”</i>修正的幅度现在提高了。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>这意味着什么和不意味着什么</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p><p><blockquote>让我重复以下内容，以免混淆。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>  As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“这种分析并不意味着你应该‘卖掉一切’和‘藏在现金里’。”</b></i>一如既往，长期投资组合管理是关于管理<i>“风险”</i>由<i>“调整”</i>随着时间的推移。</blockquote></p><p> If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有<i>“马马虎虎”</i>在牌桌上，你可以少下注或弃牌。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着你站起来完全离开桌子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这一分析最支持的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>修剪获胜位置</i></b><i>回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即止盈）</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>卖出那些不起作用的头寸。</i></b><i>如果它们在反弹期间没有与市场一起反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会下跌更多。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>向上移动跟踪止损</i></b><i>达到新的水平。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>根据您的风险承受能力检查您的投资组合分配。</i></b><i>如果您在市场周期的这个阶段对股票进行了积极的配置，您可能需要尝试回忆一下您在2008年的感受。提高现金水平，并相应增加固定收益，以减少相对市场敞口。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p><p><blockquote><b>我会错吗？</b>绝对的。</blockquote></p><p> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果这些指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote></p><p> What’s worse:</p><p><blockquote>更糟的是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i>暂时错过长期进步的初始阶段，或者；</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>花时间恢复平衡，这和赚钱不一样。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的<b><i>交易规则：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>   <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b>   <b>&nbsp;–</b>   <i>Todd Harrison</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><b><i>弥补机会比损失资本容易得多。”</i></b><b> –</b><i>托德·哈里森</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>连续6个月积极的市场...接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 14:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p><p><blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了<b><i>6-积极的市场月份</i></b>排成一行。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i>   <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i>   <i>“</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“另一个‘危险信号’是标普500已连续6个月获得正回报。</i><i><b>如下图10年月图表所示，这样的条纹很少见，当它们真的出现时，它们通常会遇到一个月甚至更长时间的负收益。</b></i><i>“</i><i>（同样值得注意的是，当12个月RSI处于这种超买状态时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</i></blockquote></p><p> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，在上面的图表中，我只回到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6-积极的市场月份-长期</b></blockquote></p><p> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p><p><blockquote>利用罗伯特·希勒博士的长期名义股票市场数据，我计算了每月的正回报，然后突出显示了6个月或更长时间的正市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p><p><blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>  <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>  <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>所有连续表演的时期最终都会结束。</b><i>（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期牛市期间往往会忘记这一点。）</i></li><li><i>鉴于极长的市场历史，</i><i><b>如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</b></i></li><li><i>这样的表演期经常，但不总是，</i><i><b>在相当不错的市场调整或熊市之前。</b></i></li></ol>下表显示了连续2个月或以上正回报的所有时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p><p><blockquote>该表显示，在近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后是至少一个月的消极表现。23%的时间出现连续三个阳性月，只有14%的时间持续到4个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p><p><blockquote><b>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次6个月或更长时间的正回报。</b>总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或更长时间的周期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有调整。</blockquote></p><p> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在每个时期，这种运行都以至少一个负回报月结束，但绝大多数都以更深的调整结束。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>这次不一样</u></b></blockquote></p><p> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，不存在对<i>“风险”</i>在金融市场作为<i>“看涨偏见”</i>仍然不受约束。由于美联储仍每月动用1200亿美元的流动性，投资者了解到<i>“殴打将继续下去，直到士气好转。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p><p><blockquote>市场上涨当然有可能继续有增无减，进入历史上最长的时期之一。唯一的问题是什么时候结束，回调幅度有多大？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p><p><blockquote><b>什么会导致修正不得而知？</b>原因在于，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者<i>“价格”</i>那个<i>“风险”</i>进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格会迅速下跌<i>“风险”</i>减少。</blockquote></p><p> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么市场在2020年2月的“疫情”面前表现得相当好。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的“外生”事件是完整的<i>“关机”</i>经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p><p><blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者纷纷“退出”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>修正的大小</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</b></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场极度偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线上方。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，通常会导致20%或更多的修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们在<i><b>“过去的表现并不能保证。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>  There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p><p><blockquote><i>“这也是投资者应该关注他们所承担的‘风险’的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延伸、偏离和看涨。”</i>历史上只有6次市场同时如此长期、看涨和超买。这些时期中的每一个都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p><p><blockquote>重要的是，72个月移动平均线自1925年以来一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反该移动平均线的情况很少见，并且仅发生在<i>“均值回复”</i>熊市。<b>目前，修正72个月移动平均线需要下跌36.5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p><p><blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能<i>“看涨情绪。”</i>然而，在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前，同样的情绪比比皆是。</blockquote></p><p> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于与长期均值的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>进入野兽的肚子</u></b></blockquote></p><p> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p><p><blockquote>目前市场定价为完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p><p><blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望，而此时许多层面的估值仍然过高。</blockquote></p><p> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p><p><blockquote>由于各种原因，八月和九月的市场表现历来疲软。然而，鉴于市场已经出现了6个积极的月份，回调的风险已经明显上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>新总统的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。</b>随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储潜在讨论<i>“逐渐变细”</i>资产购买，以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要做<i>“幽灵”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p><p><blockquote>关键是<i>“风险”</i>修正的幅度现在提高了。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>这意味着什么和不意味着什么</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p><p><blockquote>让我重复以下内容，以免混淆。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>  As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“这种分析并不意味着你应该‘卖掉一切’和‘藏在现金里’。”</b></i>一如既往，长期投资组合管理是关于管理<i>“风险”</i>由<i>“调整”</i>随着时间的推移。</blockquote></p><p> If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有<i>“马马虎虎”</i>在牌桌上，你可以少下注或弃牌。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着你站起来完全离开桌子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这一分析最支持的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>修剪获胜位置</i></b><i>回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即止盈）</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>卖出那些不起作用的头寸。</i></b><i>如果它们在反弹期间没有与市场一起反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会下跌更多。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>向上移动跟踪止损</i></b><i>达到新的水平。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>根据您的风险承受能力检查您的投资组合分配。</i></b><i>如果您在市场周期的这个阶段对股票进行了积极的配置，您可能需要尝试回忆一下您在2008年的感受。提高现金水平，并相应增加固定收益，以减少相对市场敞口。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p><p><blockquote><b>我会错吗？</b>绝对的。</blockquote></p><p> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果这些指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote></p><p> What’s worse:</p><p><blockquote>更糟的是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i>暂时错过长期进步的初始阶段，或者；</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>花时间恢复平衡，这和赚钱不一样。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的<b><i>交易规则：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>   <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b>   <b>&nbsp;–</b>   <i>Todd Harrison</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><b><i>弥补机会比损失资本容易得多。”</i></b><b> –</b><i>托德·哈里森</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896600189,"gmtCreate":1628573313941,"gmtModify":1631892025971,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896600189","repostId":"1122174975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122174975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628257533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122174975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122174975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 6)&nbsp;$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell 0.41%; $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ , $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ fell over 1%; $Li Auto(LI)$ fell 0.80%.","content":"<p>(Aug 6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> fell 0.41%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a> fell over 1%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a> fell 0.80%.</p><p><blockquote>（8月6日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌0.41%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超1%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>下跌0.80%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc49234e47a8e48665d95c05d103786\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-06 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> fell 0.41%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a> fell over 1%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a> fell 0.80%.</p><p><blockquote>（8月6日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌0.41%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超1%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>下跌0.80%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc49234e47a8e48665d95c05d103786\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122174975","content_text":"(Aug 6) Tesla Motors fell 0.41%; NIO Inc. , XPeng Inc. fell over 1%; Li Auto fell 0.80%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802023105,"gmtCreate":1627700280307,"gmtModify":1633756976574,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802023105","repostId":"1135561812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135561812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627637430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135561812?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135561812","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors  and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这是很低的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 17:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这是很低的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135561812","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.\nAMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.\n\nJay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images\nAMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.\nWhy AMD is worth $120\nBefore I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.\nI expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.\nTurning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.\n(Source:AMD)\nThe most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.\n(Source:AMD)\nTurning to cash flow.\nAMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.\nAMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nAMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.\n(Source:AMD)\nAMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.\nChallenges to my price target\nThe biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.\nSoftening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.\nFinal thoughts\nAMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171423217,"gmtCreate":1626757741639,"gmtModify":1633771295310,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171423217","repostId":"1116573791","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148259842,"gmtCreate":1625981464886,"gmtModify":1633931120541,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risky","listText":"Risky","text":"Risky","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148259842","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","BB":"黑莓","SCHW":"嘉信理财","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"BB":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"NEGG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835298463,"gmtCreate":1629718383652,"gmtModify":1631892025920,"author":{"id":"3561436465282078","authorId":"3561436465282078","name":"百忍Byron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f42d83174a08f936555b91b01acb3c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561436465282078","idStr":"3561436465282078"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835298463","repostId":"1111103954","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111103954","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629675616,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111103954?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111103954","media":"Barrons","summary":"Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.\nBack then, the worl","content":"<p>Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>半导体可能是新的石油——这可能会使2020年代成为新的1970年代。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.</p><p><blockquote>当时，世界依赖石油——供应的任何变化都会对需求产生巨大影响。当欧佩克在20世纪70年代对美国实施禁运时，原油价格从本世纪初的每桶约3美元上涨到世纪末的每桶13美元。美国甚至在1974年发行了汽油配给券。</blockquote></p><p> The spike was good news for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil</a>, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.</p><p><blockquote>这一飙升对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>20世纪70年代，该公司的回报率分别约为100%和70%，但随着通货膨胀的加剧，这对其他所有人来说都是痛苦的。十年来，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别仅上涨17%和5%。</blockquote></p><p> If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.</p><p><blockquote>如果说石油是20世纪70年代经济的必要组成部分，那么芯片在21世纪20年代也提供了同样的功能。它们为从我们的电脑和电话到我们的汽车和电器的一切提供动力。而且，众所周知，根据Susquehanna Financial Group的数据，现在存在短缺，交货时间延长至20周以上。</blockquote></p><p> Roughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.</p><p><blockquote>全球大约80%的芯片是在东北亚制造的。政治家们意识到这是一个多么大的问题，他们已经开始要求本地制造，总统乔·拜登今年早些时候推出了一项500亿美元的芯片研究计划。包括半导体在内的任何行业回流都是一个长达数年的过程，需要数十亿美元的资本。会有赢家和输家。而如果持续太久，就会渗透到各类商品的价格中。</blockquote></p><p> “Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.</p><p><blockquote>TS Lombard的罗里·格林(Rory Green)和史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)在一月份写道：“与需求快速上升相关的短缺可能会引发通货膨胀。”当时芯片——“一种以价格稳步下降而闻名的产品”——的短缺还处于起步阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>&nbsp;this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺全年都是汽车行业的眼中钉。它本应在2021年下半年自行解决。但宣布的更多减产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>过去的一周表明这个问题不会很快消失。事实上，加拿大皇家银行分析师约瑟夫·斯帕克认为，短缺可能会持续数年。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.</p><p><blockquote>斯帕克说，部分问题是结构性的。电动汽车需要更多的计算能力，但汽车行业通常依赖于老一代芯片技术，芯片制造商不太容易增加容量。相反，他们更愿意专注于消费电子行业更新、更高端的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> The result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：加油站不再排队，而是汽车经销商排队。新车和二手车库存较低推高了价格，并导致通胀上升。2021年上半年二手车价格上涨约20%，新车价格上涨约3%。二手车价格上涨开始放缓，但新车价格上涨正在加速，7月份同比上涨约7%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a> shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>这对消费者不利，但汽车制造商将受益。生产受限将导致持续低库存和更高定价。公司将销售更少的汽车，但这被更高的价格所抵消。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>2021年，该公司股价分别上涨43%和17%，两家公司的市盈率仍约为2022年市盈率的七倍。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a>. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.</p><p><blockquote>这还只是汽车行业。芯片短缺持续的时间越长，各类产品的价格上涨就越多。这将有利于芯片制造商，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>华尔街看到了后者的优势。约三分之二的分析师表示买入该股，平均目标价意味着约33%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望RadioShack外面会排起长队，但预计芯片短缺也会有同样的感觉。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>半导体可能是新的石油——这可能会使2020年代成为新的1970年代。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.</p><p><blockquote>当时，世界依赖石油——供应的任何变化都会对需求产生巨大影响。当欧佩克在20世纪70年代对美国实施禁运时，原油价格从本世纪初的每桶约3美元上涨到世纪末的每桶13美元。美国甚至在1974年发行了汽油配给券。</blockquote></p><p> The spike was good news for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil</a>, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.</p><p><blockquote>这一飙升对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>20世纪70年代，该公司的回报率分别约为100%和70%，但随着通货膨胀的加剧，这对其他所有人来说都是痛苦的。十年来，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别仅上涨17%和5%。</blockquote></p><p> If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.</p><p><blockquote>如果说石油是20世纪70年代经济的必要组成部分，那么芯片在21世纪20年代也提供了同样的功能。它们为从我们的电脑和电话到我们的汽车和电器的一切提供动力。而且，众所周知，根据Susquehanna Financial Group的数据，现在存在短缺，交货时间延长至20周以上。</blockquote></p><p> Roughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.</p><p><blockquote>全球大约80%的芯片是在东北亚制造的。政治家们意识到这是一个多么大的问题，他们已经开始要求本地制造，总统乔·拜登今年早些时候推出了一项500亿美元的芯片研究计划。包括半导体在内的任何行业回流都是一个长达数年的过程，需要数十亿美元的资本。会有赢家和输家。而如果持续太久，就会渗透到各类商品的价格中。</blockquote></p><p> “Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.</p><p><blockquote>TS Lombard的罗里·格林(Rory Green)和史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)在一月份写道：“与需求快速上升相关的短缺可能会引发通货膨胀。”当时芯片——“一种以价格稳步下降而闻名的产品”——的短缺还处于起步阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a>&nbsp;this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺全年都是汽车行业的眼中钉。它本应在2021年下半年自行解决。但宣布的更多减产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>过去的一周表明这个问题不会很快消失。事实上，加拿大皇家银行分析师约瑟夫·斯帕克认为，短缺可能会持续数年。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.</p><p><blockquote>斯帕克说，部分问题是结构性的。电动汽车需要更多的计算能力，但汽车行业通常依赖于老一代芯片技术，芯片制造商不太容易增加容量。相反，他们更愿意专注于消费电子行业更新、更高端的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> The result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：加油站不再排队，而是汽车经销商排队。新车和二手车库存较低推高了价格，并导致通胀上升。2021年上半年二手车价格上涨约20%，新车价格上涨约3%。二手车价格上涨开始放缓，但新车价格上涨正在加速，7月份同比上涨约7%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a> shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>这对消费者不利，但汽车制造商将受益。生产受限将导致持续低库存和更高定价。公司将销售更少的汽车，但这被更高的价格所抵消。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>2021年，该公司股价分别上涨43%和17%，两家公司的市盈率仍约为2022年市盈率的七倍。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a>. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.</p><p><blockquote>这还只是汽车行业。芯片短缺持续的时间越长，各类产品的价格上涨就越多。这将有利于芯片制造商，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>华尔街看到了后者的优势。约三分之二的分析师表示买入该股，平均目标价意味着约33%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望RadioShack外面会排起长队，但预计芯片短缺也会有同样的感觉。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-stocks-economy-51629507891?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚","AMD":"美国超微公司","TSM":"台积电","INTC":"英特尔","MU":"美光科技","CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-stocks-economy-51629507891?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111103954","content_text":"Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.\nBack then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.\nThe spike was good news for Chevron and Exxon Mobil, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.\nIf oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.\nRoughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.\n“Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.\nThe global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by Toyota this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.\nPart of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.\nThe result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.\nThat’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. Ford and General Motors shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.\nAnd that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.\nDon’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"CVX":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"XOM":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}