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2021-08-23
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The Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote>
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What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111103954","media":"Barrons","summary":"Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.\nBack then, the worl","content":"<p>Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>半导体可能是新的石油——这可能会使2020年代成为新的1970年代。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.</p><p><blockquote>当时，世界依赖石油——供应的任何变化都会对需求产生巨大影响。当欧佩克在20世纪70年代对美国实施禁运时，原油价格从本世纪初的每桶约3美元上涨到世纪末的每桶13美元。美国甚至在1974年发行了汽油配给券。</blockquote></p><p> The spike was good news for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil</a>, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.</p><p><blockquote>这一飙升对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>20世纪70年代，该公司的回报率分别约为100%和70%，但随着通货膨胀的加剧，这对其他所有人来说都是痛苦的。十年来，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别仅上涨17%和5%。</blockquote></p><p> If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.</p><p><blockquote>如果说石油是20世纪70年代经济的必要组成部分，那么芯片在21世纪20年代也提供了同样的功能。它们为从我们的电脑和电话到我们的汽车和电器的一切提供动力。而且，众所周知，根据Susquehanna Financial Group的数据，现在存在短缺，交货时间延长至20周以上。</blockquote></p><p> Roughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.</p><p><blockquote>全球大约80%的芯片是在东北亚制造的。政治家们意识到这是一个多么大的问题，他们已经开始要求本地制造，总统乔·拜登今年早些时候推出了一项500亿美元的芯片研究计划。包括半导体在内的任何行业回流都是一个长达数年的过程，需要数十亿美元的资本。会有赢家和输家。而如果持续太久，就会渗透到各类商品的价格中。</blockquote></p><p> “Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.</p><p><blockquote>TS Lombard的罗里·格林(Rory Green)和史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)在一月份写道：“与需求快速上升相关的短缺可能会引发通货膨胀。”当时芯片——“一种以价格稳步下降而闻名的产品”——的短缺还处于起步阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a> this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺全年都是汽车行业的眼中钉。它本应在2021年下半年自行解决。但宣布的更多减产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>过去的一周表明这个问题不会很快消失。事实上，加拿大皇家银行分析师约瑟夫·斯帕克认为，短缺可能会持续数年。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.</p><p><blockquote>斯帕克说，部分问题是结构性的。电动汽车需要更多的计算能力，但汽车行业通常依赖于老一代芯片技术，芯片制造商不太容易增加容量。相反，他们更愿意专注于消费电子行业更新、更高端的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> The result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：加油站不再排队，而是汽车经销商排队。新车和二手车库存较低推高了价格，并导致通胀上升。2021年上半年二手车价格上涨约20%，新车价格上涨约3%。二手车价格上涨开始放缓，但新车价格上涨正在加速，7月份同比上涨约7%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a> shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>这对消费者不利，但汽车制造商将受益。生产受限将导致持续低库存和更高定价。公司将销售更少的汽车，但这被更高的价格所抵消。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>2021年，该公司股价分别上涨43%和17%，两家公司的市盈率仍约为2022年市盈率的七倍。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a>. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.</p><p><blockquote>这还只是汽车行业。芯片短缺持续的时间越长，各类产品的价格上涨就越多。这将有利于芯片制造商，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>华尔街看到了后者的优势。约三分之二的分析师表示买入该股，平均目标价意味着约33%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望RadioShack外面会排起长队，但预计芯片短缺也会有同样的感觉。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Chip Shortage Looks Like the Oil Shortage of the 1970s. What It Means for Stocks and the Economy.<blockquote>芯片短缺看起来就像20世纪70年代的石油短缺。这对股票和经济意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>半导体可能是新的石油——这可能会使2020年代成为新的1970年代。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.</p><p><blockquote>当时，世界依赖石油——供应的任何变化都会对需求产生巨大影响。当欧佩克在20世纪70年代对美国实施禁运时，原油价格从本世纪初的每桶约3美元上涨到世纪末的每桶13美元。美国甚至在1974年发行了汽油配给券。</blockquote></p><p> The spike was good news for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil</a>, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.</p><p><blockquote>这一飙升对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>20世纪70年代，该公司的回报率分别约为100%和70%，但随着通货膨胀的加剧，这对其他所有人来说都是痛苦的。十年来，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别仅上涨17%和5%。</blockquote></p><p> If oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.</p><p><blockquote>如果说石油是20世纪70年代经济的必要组成部分，那么芯片在21世纪20年代也提供了同样的功能。它们为从我们的电脑和电话到我们的汽车和电器的一切提供动力。而且，众所周知，根据Susquehanna Financial Group的数据，现在存在短缺，交货时间延长至20周以上。</blockquote></p><p> Roughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.</p><p><blockquote>全球大约80%的芯片是在东北亚制造的。政治家们意识到这是一个多么大的问题，他们已经开始要求本地制造，总统乔·拜登今年早些时候推出了一项500亿美元的芯片研究计划。包括半导体在内的任何行业回流都是一个长达数年的过程，需要数十亿美元的资本。会有赢家和输家。而如果持续太久，就会渗透到各类商品的价格中。</blockquote></p><p> “Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.</p><p><blockquote>TS Lombard的罗里·格林(Rory Green)和史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)在一月份写道：“与需求快速上升相关的短缺可能会引发通货膨胀。”当时芯片——“一种以价格稳步下降而闻名的产品”——的短缺还处于起步阶段。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota</a> this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺全年都是汽车行业的眼中钉。它本应在2021年下半年自行解决。但宣布的更多减产<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田</a>过去的一周表明这个问题不会很快消失。事实上，加拿大皇家银行分析师约瑟夫·斯帕克认为，短缺可能会持续数年。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.</p><p><blockquote>斯帕克说，部分问题是结构性的。电动汽车需要更多的计算能力，但汽车行业通常依赖于老一代芯片技术，芯片制造商不太容易增加容量。相反，他们更愿意专注于消费电子行业更新、更高端的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> The result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：加油站不再排队，而是汽车经销商排队。新车和二手车库存较低推高了价格，并导致通胀上升。2021年上半年二手车价格上涨约20%，新车价格上涨约3%。二手车价格上涨开始放缓，但新车价格上涨正在加速，7月份同比上涨约7%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a> shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>这对消费者不利，但汽车制造商将受益。生产受限将导致持续低库存和更高定价。公司将销售更少的汽车，但这被更高的价格所抵消。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>2021年，该公司股价分别上涨43%和17%，两家公司的市盈率仍约为2022年市盈率的七倍。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a>. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.</p><p><blockquote>这还只是汽车行业。芯片短缺持续的时间越长，各类产品的价格上涨就越多。这将有利于芯片制造商，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>华尔街看到了后者的优势。约三分之二的分析师表示买入该股，平均目标价意味着约33%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望RadioShack外面会排起长队，但预计芯片短缺也会有同样的感觉。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-stocks-economy-51629507891?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CVX":"雪佛龙","XOM":"埃克森美孚","INTC":"英特尔","MU":"美光科技","TSM":"台积电","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-shortage-stocks-economy-51629507891?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111103954","content_text":"Semiconductors might be the new oil—and that could make the 2020s the new 1970s.\nBack then, the world ran on oil—and any change in supply had a massive impact on demand. When OPEC embargoed the U.S. in the 1970s, the price of crude rose from about $3 a barrel at the beginning of the decade to $13 a barrel by its end. The U.S. even issued gas ration coupons in 1974.\nThe spike was good news for Chevron and Exxon Mobil, which returned roughly 100% and 70%, respectively, in the 1970s, but painful for everyone else, as inflation raged. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 17% and 5%, respectively, over the decade.\nIf oil was the necessary component for the 1970s economy, chips provide the same function in the 2020s. They power everything from our computers and phones to our cars and appliances. And, as everyone knows by now, there is a shortage, with delivery times growing to more than 20 weeks, per Susquehanna Financial Group data.\nRoughly 80% of all the chips in the world are made in Northeast Asia. Politicians realize how big a problem this is, and they have started to demand local manufacturing, with President Joe Biden introducing a plan for $50 billion in chip research earlier this year. Reshoring any industry, including semiconductors, is a yearslong process that requires billions in capital. There will be winners and losers. And if it goes on too long, it will filter into the prices of all kinds of goods.\n“Shortages related to rapid upswings in demand could become inflationary,” TS Lombard’s Rory Green and Steven Blitz wrote back in January, when the scarcity of chips—”a product more known for steadily declining prices”—was in its infancy.\nThe global semiconductor shortage has been a particular thorn in the side of the automotive industry all year. It was supposed to resolve itself by the second half of 2021. But more production cuts announced by Toyota this past week shows the problem isn’t going away soon. In fact, RBC analyst Joseph Spak argues the shortage could last for years.\nPart of the problem is structural, Spak says. Electric vehicles need more computing power, but the auto industry typically relies on older-generation chip technology, where capacity isn’t being as readily added by chip makers. Instead, they prefer to focus on newer, higher-end chips for the consumer electronics industry.\nThe result: Instead of lines at the gas stations, there are lines at the automotive dealerships. Low new- and used-car inventories have pushed up pricing and contributed to rising inflation. Used-car prices rose about 20% in the first half of 2021, while new-car prices rose about 3%. The rise in used-car prices has started to slow, but new-car price gains are accelerating, rising about 7% year over year in July.\nThat’s not good for consumers, but auto makers stand to benefit. Constrained production will lead to persistently low inventories and higher pricing. Companies will sell fewer cars, but that’s been offset by higher prices. Ford and General Motors shares are up 43% and 17%, respectively, in 2021, and both still trade for about seven times 2022 earnings.\nAnd that’s just the auto industry. The longer the chip shortage goes on, the more prices will rise in all types of products. That will benefit chip makers such as Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. Wall Street sees upside in the latter. Some two-thirds of analysts covering the stock rate it Buy, and the average price target implies about a 33% upside.\nDon’t expect long lines outside RadioShack, but expect the chip shortage to be felt just the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"XOM":0.9,"MU":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"CVX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/835298463"}
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