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巴韭隆
个人简介:承认自己是个韭菜,所以我是来买voo、qqq的。
IP属地:广东
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巴韭隆
04-30
$COIN 20240426 252.5 CALL$
备对,喝点汤
巴韭隆
04-24
$腾讯控股(00700)$
还行,目前满意。
巴韭隆
04-24
$腾讯控股(00700)$
今年开局就连续卖put,接了几手盘,后面继续卖put。 再长就做备对卖call。 这次节奏不错。
巴韭隆
04-23
$TLT 20240426 92.5 CALL$
备对增厚
巴韭隆
04-15
$COIN 20240419 275.0 CALL$
covered call ,扣点是点
巴韭隆
04-13
$COIN 20240412 280.0 CALL$
逗死了,40也[捂脸] 真搬砖
巴韭隆
04-13
$COIN 20240412 215.0 PUT$
这个节奏也挺好
巴韭隆
04-13
$COIN 20240412 250.0 PUT$
睡了,害怕后半夜跌穿接盘了。[流泪] 忽然就不想要了
巴韭隆
04-08
$COIN 20240405 245.0 PUT$
最终在245 接了一手coinbase。 希望这周别崩吧。浮亏500。
巴韭隆
04-08
$TCH.HK 20240429 285.00 PUT$
蚊子肉也是肉,希望tx不要跌穿260
巴韭隆
04-05
$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$
有耐心的,可以开定投了,大不了跌回82 今年不降息那就明年降,先拿4.5%的利息再说。
巴韭隆
04-05
$COIN 20240405 250.0 PUT$
贪了,平仓。 重新 sell 1张 245 put,看昨晚的状态,今天铁定叠穿。
巴韭隆
04-05
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
这个跳水,适合赌一天的末日期权
巴韭隆
04-04
$COIN 20240412 250.0 PUT$
本周肯定是接不到了,下周250试试看。 涨起来我就当个苦命人赚700。 暴跌我就当个套牢的苦命人
巴韭隆
04-04
$COIN 20240412 215.0 PUT$
跌了就接
巴韭隆
04-02
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
两张covered call 让打掉了 本周希望250以下接回来裸卖两张put
巴韭隆
04-02
$COIN 20240405 250.0 PUT$
好,准备接,认了
巴韭隆
03-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
开空单 十个点就走,亏十个点也走
巴韭隆
03-05
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
fomo,卖put,等倒车接人
巴韭隆
03-05
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
如此大的波动,风险和机遇并存。只有疯狂和运气才能赚钱。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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还行,目前满意。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 还行,目前满意。","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 还行,目前满意。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e346a6bbe78f7c72c72e7d6f984825","width":"1290","height":"2796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298715560345616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298714990686264,"gmtCreate":1713937175561,"gmtModify":1713937274970,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 今年开局就连续卖put,接了几手盘,后面继续卖put。 再长就做备对卖call。 这次节奏不错。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ 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这次节奏不错。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d7d98e1637ce28e183a434bed65940","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298714990686264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"准备再接5手。拿到年底看看。","text":"准备再接5手。拿到年底看看。","html":"准备再接5手。拿到年底看看。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298214177542152,"gmtCreate":1713834994294,"gmtModify":1713835432007,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20240426 92.5 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240419 275.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240419 275.0 CALL$</a> covered call ,扣点是点","text":"$COIN 20240419 275.0 CALL$ covered call ,扣点是点","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bdeed08b48823545a2db96629806b2","width":"1092","height":"1716"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/295666185912648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294624677261608,"gmtCreate":1712942995026,"gmtModify":1712943870497,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240412 280.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240412 280.0 CALL$</a> 逗死了,40也[捂脸] 真搬砖","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240412 280.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240412 280.0 CALL$</a> 逗死了,40也[捂脸] 真搬砖","text":"$COIN 20240412 280.0 CALL$ 逗死了,40也[捂脸] 真搬砖","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39e08912e22eb6cfb30a0d479316aed6","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294624677261608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574609203076960","authorId":"3574609203076960","name":"目光之后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516d9fcad49f5c5a9d0f19b33ab3b62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"下周coinbase出现大单买入看涨期权,我要全仓了老哥","text":"下周coinbase出现大单买入看涨期权,我要全仓了老哥","html":"下周coinbase出现大单买入看涨期权,我要全仓了老哥"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294624693457176,"gmtCreate":1712942946786,"gmtModify":1712943866759,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL$</a> 跟单Sell Call 10张","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL$</a> 跟单Sell Call 10张","text":"$COIN 20240119 142.0 CALL$ 跟单Sell Call 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">$新东方在线(01797)$</a>美股开盘,再开空单","text":"$新东方在线(01797)$美股开盘,再开空单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683007205","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566900685391720","authorId":"3566900685391720","name":"非洲韭菜盒子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"美股没这个","text":"美股没这个","html":"美股没这个"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261017500930176,"gmtCreate":1704735028316,"gmtModify":1704744109574,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL$</a> 舒服了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL\">$COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL$</a> 舒服了","text":"$COIN 20240119 200.0 CALL$ 舒服了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1399dadc96e2e6f0748981a333d9e7","width":"1092","height":"1716"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261017500930176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662507580,"gmtCreate":1666620256840,"gmtModify":1666620257878,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a>好家伙,可算等着了,空单拿了快仨月了","listText":"<a 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10:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美股虽弱,但难阻A股反转","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137925561","media":"格隆汇","summary":"展望4季度,拐点临近,当下市场已进入较好布局期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者:樊继拓 等</p><p><b>相比1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高,认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市,但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年,美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。目前A股的经济、投资者仓位、估值、汇率环境非常类似2019年8月初的低点,后续可能会再次出现V型反转,建议投资者积极做多。配置上我们认为,市场的风格正在往价值转变,这一转变至少是季度的,甚至有很大的概率演变为年度的风格转变。</b></p><p><b>(1)国内风险可控,投资者担心美股的风险。</b>相比较1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高。国内的经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。美国经济所面临的利率大幅上行、通胀波动大、经济衰退等风险,很多都是十年甚至几十年一遇的,这已经成为影响A股反转的最后障碍。从美股的调整幅度来看,2010到2021年,除了疫情期间,其他历次经济小级别衰退(可以理解为软着陆),美股调整幅度均不超过20%。而年初以来,标普500最大回撤幅度高达25%,基本上已经意味着资本市场认为,美国经济很难软着陆。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e8553e0c68b5dcdfeeb34a8a7c82fe\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>现在的关键是,对A股的影响会有多大?2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市。2000-2002年,标普500最大跌幅-49%,上证综指最大跌幅-41%;2007-2008年,标普500最大跌幅-57%,上证综指最大跌幅-72%,这次甚至A股的跌幅更大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee501ed7b9b59111257b74af011c9dd1\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(2)但这一次中美股市所处的估值位置完全不同,美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。</b>之所以2000-2002、2007-2008年,A股比美股调整更剧烈,背后很重要的原因是2000年底和2007年底,A股本身处在估值泡沫化的顶点,但这一次A股股市是处在历史很低的位置。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c243c96cd4d66eecf3d90e806ce0c19\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>更低的估值意味着,虽然美股调整对A股的负面影响还在,但已经非常小了。从2009-2021年美国历次小级别熊市对A股影响幅度,已经能看到类似的结论了。2011、2015、2018和2020年,美国经历过4次小级别熊市,前两次恰好是A股估值处在高位,后两次A股估值处在低位,后两次对A股的影响非常小。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea755fed81faf5026bb18a9563d2981a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(3)美国经济会影响出口,但这是滞后指标。</b>从基本面的角度,投资者担心如果海外衰退,可能会导致出口下滑,从而压制国内的经济。我们认为,这一影响肯定是存在的。但由于2000年以来,中国经济的历次周期都是早于欧美的,所以出口大多是经济的滞后指标。经济下滑的时候,出口滞后下滑,经济企稳的时候,出口滞后企稳。股市的企稳主要取决于国内经济的韧性,随着稳增长的推进,房地产政策正在不断宽松,信贷社融的改善虽然有所反复,但大方向上,依然是在改善的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2a3e90e802fc588da40abd8d6472d6a\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f4fdc811b0f338929362726c2b5829a\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(4)策略观点:可能会再次V型反转。</b>7月以后,经济预期再次回落,导致上证50等指数最先开始走弱,8月下旬开始,由于疫情、美股调整、风格转变等影响,指数再次走弱。我们认为指数层面的调整已经接近尾声,但风格转变可能才刚刚开始。10月开始,在稳增长等因素的驱动下,指数有可能止跌再次V型反转。整体上来看,2022年7月-2023年中,指数将会是宽幅震荡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8113bfff648a82888401a8a93e6240\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb729e7b7ecfe937485a1ff55097d2d\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>行业配置建议:全面增配价值股。</b>8月开始,我们不断提示“提前开始风格转换”,部分投资者认为长期产业逻辑、当期景气度比估值更重要,犹豫不决的投资者依然很多。需要警惕的是,即使是2016年白酒牛市和2019年半导体牛市,在风格转变初期的时候,风格变化也是领先业绩的。当下的风格转变至少是季度的,甚至有很大的概率发展为年度风格变化。<b>(1)成长股的季度性反弹已经结束,建议配置上转向价值股。</b>由于市场年度的风格是拉锯期,所以价值成长会伴随指数的涨跌出现快速的变化,4-8月成长的反弹类似2015年Q4和2019年Q1,季度涨幅过后可能会休整一个季度。如果明年初经济改善或成长业绩出现不好的变化,则时间可能更久。三季报期间可能会有成长股小的喘息窗口,时间和级别会比4-8月小很多。<b>(2)可以在半年内超配金融地产。</b>银行地产的超额收益大多出现在经济下降后期到经济回升早期,在经济确定改善之前,反而更容易产生超额收益。非银估值位置更好,但近期正面催化剂较少,启动时间可能比银行地产略晚,但依然建议超配。<b>(3)消费的逻辑演绎还不充分。</b>疫情后投资者开始逐渐预期经济恢复,这一恢复的过程虽然受到房地产销售的波折,但大方向上还能持续。建议优先关注疫后产能格局优化的酒店、航空,后续等待稳增长效果,逐渐增配和经济相关度高的家电等。<b>(4)周期股长期逻辑完美,短期正在承受美国经济可能会衰退的影响。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00271d7cc42cca1b7993dd3b602f975c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股虽弱,但难阻A股反转</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股虽弱,但难阻A股反转\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 10:36 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:樊继拓 等相比1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高,认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市,但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年,美股风险可能只是个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1137925561","content_text":"作者:樊继拓 等相比1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高,认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市,但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年,美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。目前A股的经济、投资者仓位、估值、汇率环境非常类似2019年8月初的低点,后续可能会再次出现V型反转,建议投资者积极做多。配置上我们认为,市场的风格正在往价值转变,这一转变至少是季度的,甚至有很大的概率演变为年度的风格转变。(1)国内风险可控,投资者担心美股的风险。相比较1-4月的调整,8月底以来,投资者对海外风险的关注度更高。国内的经济风险(疫情、房地产下行)虽然依然存在,但是下行的速度慢很多,而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。美国经济所面临的利率大幅上行、通胀波动大、经济衰退等风险,很多都是十年甚至几十年一遇的,这已经成为影响A股反转的最后障碍。从美股的调整幅度来看,2010到2021年,除了疫情期间,其他历次经济小级别衰退(可以理解为软着陆),美股调整幅度均不超过20%。而年初以来,标普500最大回撤幅度高达25%,基本上已经意味着资本市场认为,美国经济很难软着陆。现在的关键是,对A股的影响会有多大?2000-2002年和2007-2008年,伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市,A股也是大级别熊市。2000-2002年,标普500最大跌幅-49%,上证综指最大跌幅-41%;2007-2008年,标普500最大跌幅-57%,上证综指最大跌幅-72%,这次甚至A股的跌幅更大。(2)但这一次中美股市所处的估值位置完全不同,美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。之所以2000-2002、2007-2008年,A股比美股调整更剧烈,背后很重要的原因是2000年底和2007年底,A股本身处在估值泡沫化的顶点,但这一次A股股市是处在历史很低的位置。更低的估值意味着,虽然美股调整对A股的负面影响还在,但已经非常小了。从2009-2021年美国历次小级别熊市对A股影响幅度,已经能看到类似的结论了。2011、2015、2018和2020年,美国经历过4次小级别熊市,前两次恰好是A股估值处在高位,后两次A股估值处在低位,后两次对A股的影响非常小。(3)美国经济会影响出口,但这是滞后指标。从基本面的角度,投资者担心如果海外衰退,可能会导致出口下滑,从而压制国内的经济。我们认为,这一影响肯定是存在的。但由于2000年以来,中国经济的历次周期都是早于欧美的,所以出口大多是经济的滞后指标。经济下滑的时候,出口滞后下滑,经济企稳的时候,出口滞后企稳。股市的企稳主要取决于国内经济的韧性,随着稳增长的推进,房地产政策正在不断宽松,信贷社融的改善虽然有所反复,但大方向上,依然是在改善的。(4)策略观点:可能会再次V型反转。7月以后,经济预期再次回落,导致上证50等指数最先开始走弱,8月下旬开始,由于疫情、美股调整、风格转变等影响,指数再次走弱。我们认为指数层面的调整已经接近尾声,但风格转变可能才刚刚开始。10月开始,在稳增长等因素的驱动下,指数有可能止跌再次V型反转。整体上来看,2022年7月-2023年中,指数将会是宽幅震荡。行业配置建议:全面增配价值股。8月开始,我们不断提示“提前开始风格转换”,部分投资者认为长期产业逻辑、当期景气度比估值更重要,犹豫不决的投资者依然很多。需要警惕的是,即使是2016年白酒牛市和2019年半导体牛市,在风格转变初期的时候,风格变化也是领先业绩的。当下的风格转变至少是季度的,甚至有很大的概率发展为年度风格变化。(1)成长股的季度性反弹已经结束,建议配置上转向价值股。由于市场年度的风格是拉锯期,所以价值成长会伴随指数的涨跌出现快速的变化,4-8月成长的反弹类似2015年Q4和2019年Q1,季度涨幅过后可能会休整一个季度。如果明年初经济改善或成长业绩出现不好的变化,则时间可能更久。三季报期间可能会有成长股小的喘息窗口,时间和级别会比4-8月小很多。(2)可以在半年内超配金融地产。银行地产的超额收益大多出现在经济下降后期到经济回升早期,在经济确定改善之前,反而更容易产生超额收益。非银估值位置更好,但近期正面催化剂较少,启动时间可能比银行地产略晚,但依然建议超配。(3)消费的逻辑演绎还不充分。疫情后投资者开始逐渐预期经济恢复,这一恢复的过程虽然受到房地产销售的波折,但大方向上还能持续。建议优先关注疫后产能格局优化的酒店、航空,后续等待稳增长效果,逐渐增配和经济相关度高的家电等。(4)周期股长期逻辑完美,短期正在承受美国经济可能会衰退的影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291407093666104,"gmtCreate":1712170199690,"gmtModify":1712174552388,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240412 215.0 PUT\">$COIN 20240412 215.0 PUT$</a> 跌了就接","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240412 215.0 PUT\">$COIN 20240412 215.0 PUT$</a> 跌了就接","text":"$COIN 20240412 215.0 PUT$ 跌了就接","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2421382ab18e022613197dc8d0c73d83","width":"1125","height":"2670"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291407093666104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3545685759748130","authorId":"3545685759748130","name":"小明1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e38c44870768c637e0a4e88fb4a3aa42","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这是看多?","text":"这是看多?","html":"这是看多?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667248739,"gmtCreate":1668933546621,"gmtModify":1668933547873,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$ </a>再创新高,就形成上涨趋势了。大家都等着这一波的吧。重回200均线且新高。牛市回来了?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$ </a>再创新高,就形成上涨趋势了。大家都等着这一波的吧。重回200均线且新高。牛市回来了?","text":"$新东方(EDU)$ 再创新高,就形成上涨趋势了。大家都等着这一波的吧。重回200均线且新高。牛市回来了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667248739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298715560345616,"gmtCreate":1713937364724,"gmtModify":1713937368881,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 还行,目前满意。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 还行,目前满意。","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 还行,目前满意。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e346a6bbe78f7c72c72e7d6f984825","width":"1290","height":"2796"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298715560345616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":280871418392880,"gmtCreate":1709601207512,"gmtModify":1709618684023,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 如此大的波动,风险和机遇并存。只有疯狂和运气才能赚钱。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a> 如此大的波动,风险和机遇并存。只有疯狂和运气才能赚钱。","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 如此大的波动,风险和机遇并存。只有疯狂和运气才能赚钱。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/280871418392880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":266745537921168,"gmtCreate":1706151246003,"gmtModify":1706151247184,"author":{"id":"3547151250655817","authorId":"3547151250655817","name":"巴韭隆","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df56ae4df226af9682b048b9dd74b15","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 如果单边下行,往80去了,那就买put,或者卖callb","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 如果单边下行,往80去了,那就买put,或者卖callb","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 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