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06-26

牛逼恒科

06-23

mmp

06-11

！

06-08

🐮

06-02

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

06-02

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

04-16

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

04-16

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

04-02

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-10

全球需求复苏？

中国前两月出口激增，大幅超出预期，顺差继续创历史新高今年1月至2月，中国出口同比增长21.8%，超过路透社调查的经济学家预期的7.1%的增幅。贸易顺差飙升至 2136.2 亿美元，而预期为 1796 亿美元。海关数据显示，今年前两个月进口额同比增长19.8%，高于此前预期的6.3%的增幅。与上年同期相比，中国与美国的贸易额下降16.9%至6097.1亿元人民币(约合882.2亿美元)

全球需求复苏？

03-05

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-05

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股每股均价222.5304港元

03-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

油价冲击何时引爆真正的危机？历史揭示三大触发信号

03-04

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-04

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-03

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-03

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-02

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-02

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

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</a>&nbsp;","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a09b26d4e4a48fcbb64ba2d93cbdb60","width":"1122","height":"1608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570845213684840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573207889319078","authorId":"3573207889319078","name":"布尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/385adcbcbd0b9fc455f4ccac394d3040","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3573207889319078","idStr":"3573207889319078"},"content":"这是加仓降低成本到盈利吗？楼主好厉害","text":"这是加仓降低成本到盈利吗？楼主好厉害","html":"这是加仓降低成本到盈利吗？楼主好厉害"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":570845042149504,"gmtCreate":1780390666616,"gmtModify":1780392498296,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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</a>&nbsp;","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd3812057d0c8ba63e862da50f3589c","width":"1046","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549365468899184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":541113008148632,"gmtCreate":1773133237301,"gmtModify":1773133367760,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"全球需求复苏？","htmlText":"中国前两月出口激增，大幅超出预期，顺差继续创历史新高 今年1月至2月，中国出口同比增长21.8%，超过路透社调查的经济学家预期的7.1%的增幅。 贸易顺差飙升至 2136.2 亿美元，而预期为 1796 亿美元。 海关数据显示，今年前两个月进口额同比增长19.8%，高于此前预期的6.3%的增幅。 与上年同期相比，中国与美国的贸易额下降16.9%至6097.1亿元人民币(约合882.2亿美元)","listText":"中国前两月出口激增，大幅超出预期，顺差继续创历史新高 今年1月至2月，中国出口同比增长21.8%，超过路透社调查的经济学家预期的7.1%的增幅。 贸易顺差飙升至 2136.2 亿美元，而预期为 1796 亿美元。 海关数据显示，今年前两个月进口额同比增长19.8%，高于此前预期的6.3%的增幅。 与上年同期相比，中国与美国的贸易额下降16.9%至6097.1亿元人民币(约合882.2亿美元)","text":"中国前两月出口激增，大幅超出预期，顺差继续创历史新高 今年1月至2月，中国出口同比增长21.8%，超过路透社调查的经济学家预期的7.1%的增幅。 贸易顺差飙升至 2136.2 亿美元，而预期为 1796 亿美元。 海关数据显示，今年前两个月进口额同比增长19.8%，高于此前预期的6.3%的增幅。 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</a>&nbsp;","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7213d3ac6eb4638df05e924b39fdebc5","width":"1122","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539411547738712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539411186820624,"gmtCreate":1772710317115,"gmtModify":1772716166697,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f056060bc29accd20b4943fab9a9aab1","width":"1122","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539411186820624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539059285049496,"gmtCreate":1772627240128,"gmtModify":1772627242083,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539059285049496","repostId":"2616314375","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2616314375","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772621891,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616314375?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-04 18:58","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股 每股均价222.5304港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616314375","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月27日，BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股，每股均价222.5304港元，总金额约为1.09亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1726.96万股，持股比例为5.06%。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月27日，BlackRock, Inc增持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>(09626)48.8208万股，每股均价222.5304港元，总金额约为1.09亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1726.96万股，持股比例为5.06%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股 每股均价222.5304港元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股 每股均价222.5304港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 18:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410030.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月27日，BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股，每股均价222.5304港元，总金额约为1.09亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1726.96万股，持股比例为5.06%。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410030.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","BK1575":"同股不同权","IE00B64PRP62.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","IE00B3QW5Z07.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4577":"网络游戏","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK1618":"Manus概念股","LU0772969993.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1481011671.HKD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","BK1588":"回港中概股","LU1291159041.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Silver Age A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4510":"在线教育","LU1481011911.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","BK1104":"互动家庭娱乐","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK1615":"港股-互联网","IE00BVYPNW00.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin 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ACC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BDGV0183.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) INC","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","BK4588":"碎股","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410030.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2616314375","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月27日，BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股，每股均价222.5304港元，总金额约为1.09亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1726.96万股，持股比例为5.06%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09626":1.97,"BILI":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539059419209744,"gmtCreate":1772627171928,"gmtModify":1772627174191,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539059419209744","repostId":"1185632161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185632161","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772613768,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185632161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-04 16:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"油价冲击何时引爆真正的危机？历史揭示三大触发信号","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185632161","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伊朗局势动荡油价连续多日大涨，市场神经再度绷紧，高度关注冲击会否进一步扩散。目前，上述三个条件均未被触发。德银得出结论，当前的油价波动在历史上属于\"中等偏下\"量级，尚不构成系统性风险的触发条件。2022年，正是美联储的激进加息周期与油价冲击形成共振，导致标普500出现金融危机后首次连续三个季度下跌的局面。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德意志银行认为，历史上真正引爆美股深跌15%以上的油价危机，必须同时具备油价持续飙升50%-100%、宏观经济滑向衰退、央行被迫激进加息三大条件之一。当前三项条件均未触发，WTI油价仍低于2024年均价，标普500距历史高点仅跌1.4%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗局势动荡油价连续多日大涨，市场神经再度绷紧，高度关注冲击会否进一步扩散。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen在最新研报中指出：<strong>仅凭当前的油价涨幅，历史上从未足以引发持续性的市场危机。</strong> 真正让美股跌超15%的油价冲击，历史上无一例外地需要满足以下三个条件之一：</p><blockquote><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>大幅且持续的油价飙升</strong>：涨幅至少达到50%至100%，且维持数月之久；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>宏观经济实质受损</strong>：油价冲击足以将本已放缓的经济推入衰退；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>央行被迫鹰派转向</strong>：通胀压力迫使美联储等主要央行大幅加息。</p></li></ol></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，上述三个条件均未被触发。德意志银行明确提示，这是一个动态演进的局势，未来数日至数周将是关键窗口期：</p><h2 id=\"id_2997502758\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当前油价冲击属于&#34;中等偏下&#34;量级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">布伦特原油3月2日单日上涨+7.3%，创下自2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅，欧洲债券和股市随之下挫。然而，将这一波动放入更长的历史坐标系中审视，结论却大相径庭：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">WTI油价绝对水平仍低于2024年均价（75.8美元/桶），远未达到历史重大危机时的价格水平；自1990年以来，单日涨幅达到此次量级的情况已出现过55次，并非罕见事件；</p></li><li><p>欧洲天然气价格虽同样录得2022年以来最大单日涨幅，但绝对价格水平仍远低于2022年峰值，甚至尚未回到2025年的高点。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">标普500指数周一实际小幅上涨，距历史高点仅下跌1.4%；这与2022年俄乌冲突爆发时市场迅速进入熊市的反应形成了鲜明对比。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cb305065d2e00c71a184955b065836\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"418\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银得出结论，当前的油价波动在历史上属于&#34;中等偏下&#34;量级，尚不构成系统性风险的触发条件。</p><h2 id=\"736a239a\">历史上四次油价引爆危机的共同密码</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德意志银行研究了历史上油价冲击演变为标普500超过15%深度回撤的所有重大案例，提炼出三个共同特征：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>条件一：油价涨幅至少达到50%至100%，且持续数月</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>1973年石油危机：OAPEC实施石油禁运，油价近乎翻四倍，美国、英国相继陷入衰退，标普500在一年内暴跌逾40%。</p></li><li><p>1979年伊朗革命与两伊战争：油价再度翻倍以上，伊朗产能大幅下滑，供给冲击持续。</p></li><li><p>1990年海湾战争：伊拉克入侵科威特后油价翻倍以上，标普500在1990年7月至10月间下跌19.9%。</p></li><li><p>2022年俄乌冲突：布伦特原油从年初约80美元/桶飙升至3月8日收盘价128美元/桶，涨幅约60%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>条件二：宏观经济受到实质性冲击，经济下行风险显著上升</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">油价冲击并非孤立存在。1990年时，美联储在1988至1989年已完成一轮加息，经济增速本已放缓，此时的油价冲击成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，将美国推入衰退。研报强调，当前尚未出现数据层面的实质性恶化——即便2024年夏季出现过短暂的衰退恐慌，市场也迅速企稳。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>条件三：央行被迫转向鹰派，大幅加息以对抗通胀</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1979年，时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克启动史无前例的货币紧缩周期，叠加油价冲击，美国于1980年初陷入衰退，标普500再度下挫17%。2022年，正是美联储的激进加息周期与油价冲击形成共振，导致标普500出现金融危机后首次连续三个季度下跌的局面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，市场对美联储或欧洲央行加息的定价仍属&#34;尾部风险&#34;而非基准情景，远未达到上述历史案例中的鹰派程度。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价冲击何时引爆真正的危机？历史揭示三大触发信号</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价冲击何时引爆真正的危机？历史揭示三大触发信号\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 16:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766699><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>德意志银行认为，历史上真正引爆美股深跌15%以上的油价危机，必须同时具备油价持续飙升50%-100%、宏观经济滑向衰退、央行被迫激进加息三大条件之一。当前三项条件均未触发，WTI油价仍低于2024年均价，标普500距历史高点仅跌1.4%。伊朗局势动荡油价连续多日大涨，市场神经再度绷紧，高度关注冲击会否进一步扩散。据追风交易台，德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen在最新研报中指出：仅凭当前的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766699\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b869860fd524e1c4d1e42b2d81d1a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766699","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185632161","content_text":"德意志银行认为，历史上真正引爆美股深跌15%以上的油价危机，必须同时具备油价持续飙升50%-100%、宏观经济滑向衰退、央行被迫激进加息三大条件之一。当前三项条件均未触发，WTI油价仍低于2024年均价，标普500距历史高点仅跌1.4%。伊朗局势动荡油价连续多日大涨，市场神经再度绷紧，高度关注冲击会否进一步扩散。据追风交易台，德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen在最新研报中指出：仅凭当前的油价涨幅，历史上从未足以引发持续性的市场危机。 真正让美股跌超15%的油价冲击，历史上无一例外地需要满足以下三个条件之一：大幅且持续的油价飙升：涨幅至少达到50%至100%，且维持数月之久；宏观经济实质受损：油价冲击足以将本已放缓的经济推入衰退；央行被迫鹰派转向：通胀压力迫使美联储等主要央行大幅加息。目前，上述三个条件均未被触发。德意志银行明确提示，这是一个动态演进的局势，未来数日至数周将是关键窗口期：当前油价冲击属于\"中等偏下\"量级布伦特原油3月2日单日上涨+7.3%，创下自2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅，欧洲债券和股市随之下挫。然而，将这一波动放入更长的历史坐标系中审视，结论却大相径庭：WTI油价绝对水平仍低于2024年均价（75.8美元/桶），远未达到历史重大危机时的价格水平；自1990年以来，单日涨幅达到此次量级的情况已出现过55次，并非罕见事件；欧洲天然气价格虽同样录得2022年以来最大单日涨幅，但绝对价格水平仍远低于2022年峰值，甚至尚未回到2025年的高点。标普500指数周一实际小幅上涨，距历史高点仅下跌1.4%；这与2022年俄乌冲突爆发时市场迅速进入熊市的反应形成了鲜明对比。德银得出结论，当前的油价波动在历史上属于\"中等偏下\"量级，尚不构成系统性风险的触发条件。历史上四次油价引爆危机的共同密码德意志银行研究了历史上油价冲击演变为标普500超过15%深度回撤的所有重大案例，提炼出三个共同特征：条件一：油价涨幅至少达到50%至100%，且持续数月1973年石油危机：OAPEC实施石油禁运，油价近乎翻四倍，美国、英国相继陷入衰退，标普500在一年内暴跌逾40%。1979年伊朗革命与两伊战争：油价再度翻倍以上，伊朗产能大幅下滑，供给冲击持续。1990年海湾战争：伊拉克入侵科威特后油价翻倍以上，标普500在1990年7月至10月间下跌19.9%。2022年俄乌冲突：布伦特原油从年初约80美元/桶飙升至3月8日收盘价128美元/桶，涨幅约60%。条件二：宏观经济受到实质性冲击，经济下行风险显著上升油价冲击并非孤立存在。1990年时，美联储在1988至1989年已完成一轮加息，经济增速本已放缓，此时的油价冲击成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，将美国推入衰退。研报强调，当前尚未出现数据层面的实质性恶化——即便2024年夏季出现过短暂的衰退恐慌，市场也迅速企稳。条件三：央行被迫转向鹰派，大幅加息以对抗通胀1979年，时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克启动史无前例的货币紧缩周期，叠加油价冲击，美国于1980年初陷入衰退，标普500再度下挫17%。2022年，正是美联储的激进加息周期与油价冲击形成共振，导致标普500出现金融危机后首次连续三个季度下跌的局面。目前，市场对美联储或欧洲央行加息的定价仍属\"尾部风险\"而非基准情景，远未达到上述历史案例中的鹰派程度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539001320108184,"gmtCreate":1772613088531,"gmtModify":1772613100077,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAC\">$太平洋航空(PAC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">$联合大陆航空(UAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYA.UK\">$瑞安航空(RYA.UK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALK\">$阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司(ALK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/140328448054650\">@期权经略</a>: 巴菲特都食言了，三月中旬采访时表示不会出售航空公司股票！！！！想想巴老爷子，得多悲观，违背他的操作原则<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAC\">$太平洋航空(PAC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">$联合大陆航空(UAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYA.UK\">$瑞安航空(RYA.UK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALK\">$阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司(ALK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>","text":"//@期权经略: 巴菲特都食言了，三月中旬采访时表示不会出售航空公司股票！！！！想想巴老爷子，得多悲观，违背他的操作原则$达美航空(DAL)$$西南航空(LUV)$$美国航空(AAL)$$太平洋航空(PAC)$$联合大陆航空(UAL)$$瑞安航空(RYA.UK)$$阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司(ALK)$$波音(BA)$$星巴克(SBUX)$$拼多多(PDD)$$苹果(AAPL)$$达美航空(DAL)$$美国航空(AAL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921048615","repostId":"2024797414","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2024797414","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1585971720,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2024797414?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-04 11:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2024797414","media":"金融界","summary":"原标题：巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场 来源：财联社北京时间4月4日消息，沃伦巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司周五表示，本周已出售了其持有的约18％的达美航空股份和4％的美国西南航空股份，因疫情","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场 来源：财联社</p><p>北京时间4月4日消息，沃伦巴菲特旗下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦公司周五表示，本周已出售了其持有的约18％的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>股份和4％的美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>股份，因疫情恐将航空业推入有史以来最大危机。受消息带动，达美航空股价盘后大跌11％。</p><p>巴菲特曾在3月中旬采访时表示，尽管市场遭到抛售，但他“不会出售航空公司股票”。</p><p>但根据提交给监管机构的文件，伯克希尔以约3.14亿美元出售了近1300万股达美航空的股票（出售价格在24.15美元附近），并以约7400万美元出售了约230万股西南航空的股票。</p><p>文件显示，出售是在周三和周四进行的。据Refinitiv的数据显示，伯克希尔此前持有达美航空约11.1％的股份，西南航空约10.4％的股份。巴菲特自2016年第三季度开始买进航空股，彼时达美航空股价平均在38美元左右，随后一路走高，期间巴菲特不断增持。伯克希尔是美国四大航空公司——达美航空、西南航空、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>集团和联合航空控股公司的最大股东之一。</p><p>1个月前曾抄底 如今果断“割肉”</p><p>往前追溯一个多月，根据美国证券交易委员会的文件，2月27日，在市场开始恐慌下跌之际，伯克希尔曾以平均46.40美元的价格购买了97.6万股达美航空，这笔投资如果按24美元的平均出售价格计算，股神亏损了48％。</p><p>达美航空：预计营收还要降90％</p><p>美国达美航空公司周五预计，接下来三个月的营收将骤降90％。</p><p>该公司首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安 （Ed Bastian）3日表示，“达美航空每天‘烧掉’超过6000万美元，而且这种情况还看不到底。”达美航空4月份已经取消了11.5万架次，即至少80％的航班。“我们不知道需要多久疫情才能得到控制，人们重新开始坐飞机。” 巴斯蒂安证实，根据上个月通过的2万亿美元经济救助法案，达美航空已经提交申请250亿美元援助。</p><p>不止“跌倒”过一次</p><p>其实，早在1989年巴菲特就曾“重仓”全美航空（该公司在2015年正式并入美国航空，成为全美及全球最大航空公司），耗资3.6亿美元购入全美航空优先股。巴菲特刚刚进场，该公司股票就开始下跌，到1995年时，这笔投资的净值已降至8950万美元，亏损75％。</p><p>但好在巴菲特最终以2.5亿美元的盈利将该笔投资出手，但其直到2007年还对航空业耿耿于怀：“千万别碰那些正在快速扩张的行业，这些行业的增长是建立在大量资金需求之上的。在快速扩张期间，这些公司根本就没法产生收益。航空公司就是典型代表。这类公司自始至终都没有建立持久的竞争优势。”</p><div></div><div></div></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-04 11:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-04-04/doc-iimxyqwa5049336.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场 来源：财联社北京时间4月4日消息，沃伦巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司周五表示，本周已出售了其持有的约18％的达美航空股份和4％的美国西南航空股份，因疫情恐将航空业推入有史以来最大危机。受消息带动，达美航空股价盘后大跌11％。巴菲特曾在3月中旬采访时表示，尽管市场遭到抛售，但他“不会出售航空公司股票”。但根据提交给监管机构的文件，伯克希尔以约3.14...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-04-04/doc-iimxyqwa5049336.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6582e9d3e5678a7425a15465867abe5","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","DAL":"达美航空","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-04-04/doc-iimxyqwa5049336.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2024797414","content_text":"原标题：巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场 来源：财联社北京时间4月4日消息，沃伦巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司周五表示，本周已出售了其持有的约18％的达美航空股份和4％的美国西南航空股份，因疫情恐将航空业推入有史以来最大危机。受消息带动，达美航空股价盘后大跌11％。巴菲特曾在3月中旬采访时表示，尽管市场遭到抛售，但他“不会出售航空公司股票”。但根据提交给监管机构的文件，伯克希尔以约3.14亿美元出售了近1300万股达美航空的股票（出售价格在24.15美元附近），并以约7400万美元出售了约230万股西南航空的股票。文件显示，出售是在周三和周四进行的。据Refinitiv的数据显示，伯克希尔此前持有达美航空约11.1％的股份，西南航空约10.4％的股份。巴菲特自2016年第三季度开始买进航空股，彼时达美航空股价平均在38美元左右，随后一路走高，期间巴菲特不断增持。伯克希尔是美国四大航空公司——达美航空、西南航空、美国航空集团和联合航空控股公司的最大股东之一。1个月前曾抄底 如今果断“割肉”往前追溯一个多月，根据美国证券交易委员会的文件，2月27日，在市场开始恐慌下跌之际，伯克希尔曾以平均46.40美元的价格购买了97.6万股达美航空，这笔投资如果按24美元的平均出售价格计算，股神亏损了48％。达美航空：预计营收还要降90％美国达美航空公司周五预计，接下来三个月的营收将骤降90％。该公司首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安 （Ed Bastian）3日表示，“达美航空每天‘烧掉’超过6000万美元，而且这种情况还看不到底。”达美航空4月份已经取消了11.5万架次，即至少80％的航班。“我们不知道需要多久疫情才能得到控制，人们重新开始坐飞机。” 巴斯蒂安证实，根据上个月通过的2万亿美元经济救助法案，达美航空已经提交申请250亿美元援助。不止“跌倒”过一次其实，早在1989年巴菲特就曾“重仓”全美航空（该公司在2015年正式并入美国航空，成为全美及全球最大航空公司），耗资3.6亿美元购入全美航空优先股。巴菲特刚刚进场，该公司股票就开始下跌，到1995年时，这笔投资的净值已降至8950万美元，亏损75％。但好在巴菲特最终以2.5亿美元的盈利将该笔投资出手，但其直到2007年还对航空业耿耿于怀：“千万别碰那些正在快速扩张的行业，这些行业的增长是建立在大量资金需求之上的。在快速扩张期间，这些公司根本就没法产生收益。航空公司就是典型代表。这类公司自始至终都没有建立持久的竞争优势。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":1,"DAL":0.9,"BRK.B":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"80690914587468","authorId":"80690914587468","name":"老陆点五","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"80690914587468","authorIdStr":"80690914587468"},"content":"你的意思是巴菲特，包括他团队里无数的手下，必须无条件给美国股市护盘，站岗？连短线高抛低吸也不允许？ 于情于理说不通吖。","text":"你的意思是巴菲特，包括他团队里无数的手下，必须无条件给美国股市护盘，站岗？连短线高抛低吸也不允许？ 于情于理说不通吖。","html":"你的意思是巴菲特，包括他团队里无数的手下，必须无条件给美国股市护盘，站岗？连短线高抛低吸也不允许？ 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