小加的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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03-10

全球需求复苏？

中国前两月出口激增，大幅超出预期，顺差继续创历史新高今年1月至2月，中国出口同比增长21.8%，超过路透社调查的经济学家预期的7.1%的增幅。贸易顺差飙升至 2136.2 亿美元，而预期为 1796 亿美元。海关数据显示，今年前两个月进口额同比增长19.8%，高于此前预期的6.3%的增幅。与上年同期相比，中国与美国的贸易额下降16.9%至6097.1亿元人民币(约合882.2亿美元)

全球需求复苏？

03-05

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-05

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股每股均价222.5304港元

03-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

油价冲击何时引爆真正的危机？历史揭示三大触发信号

03-04

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-04

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-03

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-03

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-02

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

03-02

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

02-27

$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$

02-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

央行：将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率下调为0

02-27

Exclusive：REUTERS CITES SOURCES REPORTING THAT CHINESE AI FIRM DEEPSEEK COULD UNVEIL ITS V4 MODEL AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. DEEPSEEK DENIED EARLY ACCESS TO ITS LATEST AI MODEL TO U.S. CHIPMAKERS, INCLUDING NVIDIA. WALL STREET IS NOW FEARING THE "DEEPSEEK TRADE." THE FIRM'S PREVIOUS LAUNCH CAUSED NVIDIA'S STOCK PRICE TO PLUMMET BY 16%.

《大空头》原型Michael Burry：英伟达的“采购承诺”与思科在互联网泡沫顶峰时期的情况如出一辙

02-26

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@w奔波儿霸:韩国科技投机逆袭中国

02-26

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

02-26

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ 看看到底能跌到哪

02-21

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

02-21

$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$

02-04

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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</a>&nbsp;","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7213d3ac6eb4638df05e924b39fdebc5","width":"1122","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539411547738712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539411186820624,"gmtCreate":1772710317115,"gmtModify":1772716166697,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f056060bc29accd20b4943fab9a9aab1","width":"1122","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539411186820624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539059285049496,"gmtCreate":1772627240128,"gmtModify":1772627242083,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539059285049496","repostId":"2616314375","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2616314375","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772621891,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616314375?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-04 18:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股 每股均价222.5304港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616314375","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月27日，BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股，每股均价222.5304港元，总金额约为1.09亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1726.96万股，持股比例为5.06%。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月27日，BlackRock, Inc增持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>(09626)48.8208万股，每股均价222.5304港元，总金额约为1.09亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1726.96万股，持股比例为5.06%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股 每股均价222.5304港元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股 每股均价222.5304港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 18:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410030.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月27日，BlackRock, Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股，每股均价222.5304港元，总金额约为1.09亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1726.96万股，持股比例为5.06%。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410030.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1599440770.SGD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4526":"热门中概股","SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4563":"昨日强势股","IE00BDGV0183.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) INC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) 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Inc增持哔哩哔哩(09626)48.8208万股，每股均价222.5304港元，总金额约为1.09亿港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1726.96万股，持股比例为5.06%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BILI":1.97,"09626":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539059419209744,"gmtCreate":1772627171928,"gmtModify":1772627174191,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539059419209744","repostId":"1185632161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185632161","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772613768,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185632161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-04 16:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"油价冲击何时引爆真正的危机？历史揭示三大触发信号","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185632161","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伊朗局势动荡油价连续多日大涨，市场神经再度绷紧，高度关注冲击会否进一步扩散。目前，上述三个条件均未被触发。德银得出结论，当前的油价波动在历史上属于\"中等偏下\"量级，尚不构成系统性风险的触发条件。2022年，正是美联储的激进加息周期与油价冲击形成共振，导致标普500出现金融危机后首次连续三个季度下跌的局面。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德意志银行认为，历史上真正引爆美股深跌15%以上的油价危机，必须同时具备油价持续飙升50%-100%、宏观经济滑向衰退、央行被迫激进加息三大条件之一。当前三项条件均未触发，WTI油价仍低于2024年均价，标普500距历史高点仅跌1.4%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伊朗局势动荡油价连续多日大涨，市场神经再度绷紧，高度关注冲击会否进一步扩散。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen在最新研报中指出：<strong>仅凭当前的油价涨幅，历史上从未足以引发持续性的市场危机。</strong> 真正让美股跌超15%的油价冲击，历史上无一例外地需要满足以下三个条件之一：</p><blockquote><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>大幅且持续的油价飙升</strong>：涨幅至少达到50%至100%，且维持数月之久；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>宏观经济实质受损</strong>：油价冲击足以将本已放缓的经济推入衰退；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>央行被迫鹰派转向</strong>：通胀压力迫使美联储等主要央行大幅加息。</p></li></ol></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，上述三个条件均未被触发。德意志银行明确提示，这是一个动态演进的局势，未来数日至数周将是关键窗口期：</p><h2 id=\"id_2997502758\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当前油价冲击属于&#34;中等偏下&#34;量级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">布伦特原油3月2日单日上涨+7.3%，创下自2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅，欧洲债券和股市随之下挫。然而，将这一波动放入更长的历史坐标系中审视，结论却大相径庭：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">WTI油价绝对水平仍低于2024年均价（75.8美元/桶），远未达到历史重大危机时的价格水平；自1990年以来，单日涨幅达到此次量级的情况已出现过55次，并非罕见事件；</p></li><li><p>欧洲天然气价格虽同样录得2022年以来最大单日涨幅，但绝对价格水平仍远低于2022年峰值，甚至尚未回到2025年的高点。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">标普500指数周一实际小幅上涨，距历史高点仅下跌1.4%；这与2022年俄乌冲突爆发时市场迅速进入熊市的反应形成了鲜明对比。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cb305065d2e00c71a184955b065836\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"418\"/></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银得出结论，当前的油价波动在历史上属于&#34;中等偏下&#34;量级，尚不构成系统性风险的触发条件。</p><h2 id=\"736a239a\">历史上四次油价引爆危机的共同密码</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德意志银行研究了历史上油价冲击演变为标普500超过15%深度回撤的所有重大案例，提炼出三个共同特征：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>条件一：油价涨幅至少达到50%至100%，且持续数月</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>1973年石油危机：OAPEC实施石油禁运，油价近乎翻四倍，美国、英国相继陷入衰退，标普500在一年内暴跌逾40%。</p></li><li><p>1979年伊朗革命与两伊战争：油价再度翻倍以上，伊朗产能大幅下滑，供给冲击持续。</p></li><li><p>1990年海湾战争：伊拉克入侵科威特后油价翻倍以上，标普500在1990年7月至10月间下跌19.9%。</p></li><li><p>2022年俄乌冲突：布伦特原油从年初约80美元/桶飙升至3月8日收盘价128美元/桶，涨幅约60%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>条件二：宏观经济受到实质性冲击，经济下行风险显著上升</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">油价冲击并非孤立存在。1990年时，美联储在1988至1989年已完成一轮加息，经济增速本已放缓，此时的油价冲击成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，将美国推入衰退。研报强调，当前尚未出现数据层面的实质性恶化——即便2024年夏季出现过短暂的衰退恐慌，市场也迅速企稳。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>条件三：央行被迫转向鹰派，大幅加息以对抗通胀</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1979年，时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克启动史无前例的货币紧缩周期，叠加油价冲击，美国于1980年初陷入衰退，标普500再度下挫17%。2022年，正是美联储的激进加息周期与油价冲击形成共振，导致标普500出现金融危机后首次连续三个季度下跌的局面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前，市场对美联储或欧洲央行加息的定价仍属&#34;尾部风险&#34;而非基准情景，远未达到上述历史案例中的鹰派程度。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价冲击何时引爆真正的危机？历史揭示三大触发信号</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价冲击何时引爆真正的危机？历史揭示三大触发信号\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 16:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766699><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>德意志银行认为，历史上真正引爆美股深跌15%以上的油价危机，必须同时具备油价持续飙升50%-100%、宏观经济滑向衰退、央行被迫激进加息三大条件之一。当前三项条件均未触发，WTI油价仍低于2024年均价，标普500距历史高点仅跌1.4%。伊朗局势动荡油价连续多日大涨，市场神经再度绷紧，高度关注冲击会否进一步扩散。据追风交易台，德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen在最新研报中指出：仅凭当前的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766699\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b869860fd524e1c4d1e42b2d81d1a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766699","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185632161","content_text":"德意志银行认为，历史上真正引爆美股深跌15%以上的油价危机，必须同时具备油价持续飙升50%-100%、宏观经济滑向衰退、央行被迫激进加息三大条件之一。当前三项条件均未触发，WTI油价仍低于2024年均价，标普500距历史高点仅跌1.4%。伊朗局势动荡油价连续多日大涨，市场神经再度绷紧，高度关注冲击会否进一步扩散。据追风交易台，德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen在最新研报中指出：仅凭当前的油价涨幅，历史上从未足以引发持续性的市场危机。 真正让美股跌超15%的油价冲击，历史上无一例外地需要满足以下三个条件之一：大幅且持续的油价飙升：涨幅至少达到50%至100%，且维持数月之久；宏观经济实质受损：油价冲击足以将本已放缓的经济推入衰退；央行被迫鹰派转向：通胀压力迫使美联储等主要央行大幅加息。目前，上述三个条件均未被触发。德意志银行明确提示，这是一个动态演进的局势，未来数日至数周将是关键窗口期：当前油价冲击属于\"中等偏下\"量级布伦特原油3月2日单日上涨+7.3%，创下自2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅，欧洲债券和股市随之下挫。然而，将这一波动放入更长的历史坐标系中审视，结论却大相径庭：WTI油价绝对水平仍低于2024年均价（75.8美元/桶），远未达到历史重大危机时的价格水平；自1990年以来，单日涨幅达到此次量级的情况已出现过55次，并非罕见事件；欧洲天然气价格虽同样录得2022年以来最大单日涨幅，但绝对价格水平仍远低于2022年峰值，甚至尚未回到2025年的高点。标普500指数周一实际小幅上涨，距历史高点仅下跌1.4%；这与2022年俄乌冲突爆发时市场迅速进入熊市的反应形成了鲜明对比。德银得出结论，当前的油价波动在历史上属于\"中等偏下\"量级，尚不构成系统性风险的触发条件。历史上四次油价引爆危机的共同密码德意志银行研究了历史上油价冲击演变为标普500超过15%深度回撤的所有重大案例，提炼出三个共同特征：条件一：油价涨幅至少达到50%至100%，且持续数月1973年石油危机：OAPEC实施石油禁运，油价近乎翻四倍，美国、英国相继陷入衰退，标普500在一年内暴跌逾40%。1979年伊朗革命与两伊战争：油价再度翻倍以上，伊朗产能大幅下滑，供给冲击持续。1990年海湾战争：伊拉克入侵科威特后油价翻倍以上，标普500在1990年7月至10月间下跌19.9%。2022年俄乌冲突：布伦特原油从年初约80美元/桶飙升至3月8日收盘价128美元/桶，涨幅约60%。条件二：宏观经济受到实质性冲击，经济下行风险显著上升油价冲击并非孤立存在。1990年时，美联储在1988至1989年已完成一轮加息，经济增速本已放缓，此时的油价冲击成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，将美国推入衰退。研报强调，当前尚未出现数据层面的实质性恶化——即便2024年夏季出现过短暂的衰退恐慌，市场也迅速企稳。条件三：央行被迫转向鹰派，大幅加息以对抗通胀1979年，时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克启动史无前例的货币紧缩周期，叠加油价冲击，美国于1980年初陷入衰退，标普500再度下挫17%。2022年，正是美联储的激进加息周期与油价冲击形成共振，导致标普500出现金融危机后首次连续三个季度下跌的局面。目前，市场对美联储或欧洲央行加息的定价仍属\"尾部风险\"而非基准情景，远未达到上述历史案例中的鹰派程度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539001320108184,"gmtCreate":1772613088531,"gmtModify":1772613100077,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGQ\">$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGQ\">$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53c1c5d43bdf1fa7670f8c065831095","width":"1122","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537306418189280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":537121636421880,"gmtCreate":1772154182553,"gmtModify":1772154184760,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537121636421880","repostId":"1199174815","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199174815","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1772152492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199174815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 08:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"央行：将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率下调为0","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199174815","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月27日，中国人民银行发布消息，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月27日，中国人民银行发布消息，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1fa33dec842e7783e4e4826649b1cc\" tg-width=\"1404\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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08:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2月27日，中国人民银行发布消息，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1fa33dec842e7783e4e4826649b1cc\" tg-width=\"1404\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199174815","content_text":"2月27日，中国人民银行发布消息，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":536989301092632,"gmtCreate":1772121854818,"gmtModify":1772121857857,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Exclusive：REUTERS CITES SOURCES REPORTING THAT CHINESE AI FIRM DEEPSEEK COULD UNVEIL ITS V4 MODEL AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. DEEPSEEK DENIED EARLY ACCESS TO ITS LATEST AI MODEL TO U.S. CHIPMAKERS, INCLUDING NVIDIA. WALL STREET IS NOW FEARING THE \"DEEPSEEK TRADE.\" THE FIRM'S PREVIOUS LAUNCH CAUSED NVIDIA'S STOCK PRICE TO PLUMMET BY 16%.","listText":"Exclusive：REUTERS CITES SOURCES REPORTING THAT CHINESE AI FIRM DEEPSEEK COULD UNVEIL ITS V4 MODEL AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. DEEPSEEK DENIED EARLY ACCESS TO ITS LATEST AI MODEL TO U.S. CHIPMAKERS, INCLUDING NVIDIA. WALL STREET IS NOW FEARING THE \"DEEPSEEK TRADE.\" THE FIRM'S PREVIOUS LAUNCH CAUSED NVIDIA'S STOCK PRICE TO PLUMMET BY 16%.","text":"Exclusive：REUTERS CITES SOURCES REPORTING THAT CHINESE AI FIRM DEEPSEEK COULD UNVEIL ITS V4 MODEL AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. DEEPSEEK DENIED EARLY ACCESS TO ITS LATEST AI MODEL TO U.S. CHIPMAKERS, INCLUDING NVIDIA. WALL STREET IS NOW FEARING THE \"DEEPSEEK TRADE.\" THE FIRM'S PREVIOUS LAUNCH CAUSED NVIDIA'S STOCK PRICE TO PLUMMET BY 16%.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536989301092632","repostId":"1135715002","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135715002","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1772120011,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135715002?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-26 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"《大空头》原型Michael Burry：英伟达的“采购承诺”与思科在互联网泡沫顶峰时期的情况如出一辙","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135715002","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因《大空头》成名的迈克尔·贝里正在加倍坚持他对英伟达的看空观点，对该芯片制造商最新财报中的一项数据敲响警钟，称其与上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫顶峰时期的模式相似。贝里在周四发布于Substack的新闻通讯中指出，英伟达的采购义务激增，从去年同期的161亿美元攀升至952亿美元。诚然，这位投资者指出，英伟达目前超过70%的利润率高于当时思科的水平，这可能提供一些下行保护。英伟达股价周四早盘跌幅超5%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">因《大空头》成名的迈克尔·贝里（Michael Burry）正在加倍坚持他对英伟达的看空观点，对该芯片制造商最新财报中的一项数据敲响警钟，称其与上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫顶峰时期的模式相似。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">贝里在周四发布于Substack的新闻通讯中指出，英伟达的采购义务激增，从去年同期的161亿美元攀升至952亿美元。包括库存和采购协议在内的总供应义务目前约为1170亿美元，几乎与英伟达的年运营现金流相当。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在周三的公司第四财季财报电话会议上，英伟达首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯表示，库存环比增长了8%，并且英伟达&#34;战略性地锁定了库存和产能，以满足比通常更远的未来几个季度的需求&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在贝里看来，英伟达的表态表明，这家美国最大的上市公司在确切了解未来需求强度之前，就承诺购买大量供应。这意味着更多资金被更长时间地困在库存中。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>&#34;并非暂时现象&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">他写道：&#34;现在发生的一切并非暂时现象。这不是出口冲击，甚至不是外部因素造成的。这源于其商业计划内部。这一新现实反映了一个深思熟虑的决定，即比以往任何时候都更进一步地锁定供应链产能。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这位著名投资者将当前情况与上世纪90年代末至2000年代初互联网泡沫顶峰时期的思科公司相提并论。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在2000年和2001年，思科为确保产能以满足其快速增长预期，锁定了大量的供应承诺。当企业技术支出突然骤降时，思科面临的是无法消化的过剩库存和合同义务。该公司最终不得不减记数十亿美元，其股价也随之暴跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">&#34;这并非业务如常。这是风险，&#34;贝里在谈到英伟达时表示。&#34;在2000-2001年期间，思科延长了与供应商的采购承诺，以确保其预期的50%年增长率所需的产能，&#34;他说。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">诚然，这位投资者指出，英伟达目前超过70%的利润率高于当时思科的水平，这可能提供一些下行保护。但贝里认为，这些利润率是由异常强劲的需求和英伟达的提价能力所推动的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">他写道：&#34;这类利润率可能会随着需求的变化而迅速回落。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>回应担忧</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">尽管如此，并非所有人都将这种积压视为警示信号。罗森布拉特证券（Rosenblatt Securities）的分析师表示，管理层在本季度回应了投资者的多重担忧，包括GPU产能、来自定制芯片的竞争、电力供应、内存供应和客户融资等问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">罗森布拉特分析师在给客户的报告中写道：&#34;我们认为这是一个充满信心的管理团队，他们将支持客户对其下一代平台的需求，并继续引领人工智能市场的发展。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这家华尔街公司周四将对英伟达的12个月目标价从245美元上调至300美元，这意味着未来一年有超过50%的上涨空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达股价周四早盘跌幅超5%。在ChatGPT推出后，该股在2023-2025年期间曾大幅飙升，但进入2026年以来，其涨幅不到1%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faa4f7dc20572ad2edc6778390adc845\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>《大空头》原型Michael Burry：英伟达的“采购承诺”与思科在互联网泡沫顶峰时期的情况如出一辙</title>\n<style 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style=\"text-align: start;\">因《大空头》成名的迈克尔·贝里（Michael Burry）正在加倍坚持他对英伟达的看空观点，对该芯片制造商最新财报中的一项数据敲响警钟，称其与上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫顶峰时期的模式相似。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">贝里在周四发布于Substack的新闻通讯中指出，英伟达的采购义务激增，从去年同期的161亿美元攀升至952亿美元。包括库存和采购协议在内的总供应义务目前约为1170亿美元，几乎与英伟达的年运营现金流相当。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在周三的公司第四财季财报电话会议上，英伟达首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯表示，库存环比增长了8%，并且英伟达&#34;战略性地锁定了库存和产能，以满足比通常更远的未来几个季度的需求&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在贝里看来，英伟达的表态表明，这家美国最大的上市公司在确切了解未来需求强度之前，就承诺购买大量供应。这意味着更多资金被更长时间地困在库存中。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>&#34;并非暂时现象&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">他写道：&#34;现在发生的一切并非暂时现象。这不是出口冲击，甚至不是外部因素造成的。这源于其商业计划内部。这一新现实反映了一个深思熟虑的决定，即比以往任何时候都更进一步地锁定供应链产能。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这位著名投资者将当前情况与上世纪90年代末至2000年代初互联网泡沫顶峰时期的思科公司相提并论。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">在2000年和2001年，思科为确保产能以满足其快速增长预期，锁定了大量的供应承诺。当企业技术支出突然骤降时，思科面临的是无法消化的过剩库存和合同义务。该公司最终不得不减记数十亿美元，其股价也随之暴跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">&#34;这并非业务如常。这是风险，&#34;贝里在谈到英伟达时表示。&#34;在2000-2001年期间，思科延长了与供应商的采购承诺，以确保其预期的50%年增长率所需的产能，&#34;他说。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">诚然，这位投资者指出，英伟达目前超过70%的利润率高于当时思科的水平，这可能提供一些下行保护。但贝里认为，这些利润率是由异常强劲的需求和英伟达的提价能力所推动的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">他写道：&#34;这类利润率可能会随着需求的变化而迅速回落。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>回应担忧</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">尽管如此，并非所有人都将这种积压视为警示信号。罗森布拉特证券（Rosenblatt Securities）的分析师表示，管理层在本季度回应了投资者的多重担忧，包括GPU产能、来自定制芯片的竞争、电力供应、内存供应和客户融资等问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">罗森布拉特分析师在给客户的报告中写道：&#34;我们认为这是一个充满信心的管理团队，他们将支持客户对其下一代平台的需求，并继续引领人工智能市场的发展。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这家华尔街公司周四将对英伟达的12个月目标价从245美元上调至300美元，这意味着未来一年有超过50%的上涨空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达股价周四早盘跌幅超5%。在ChatGPT推出后，该股在2023-2025年期间曾大幅飙升，但进入2026年以来，其涨幅不到1%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faa4f7dc20572ad2edc6778390adc845\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae469a7b0a9accd31adbf51772f5ec50","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135715002","content_text":"因《大空头》成名的迈克尔·贝里（Michael Burry）正在加倍坚持他对英伟达的看空观点，对该芯片制造商最新财报中的一项数据敲响警钟，称其与上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫顶峰时期的模式相似。贝里在周四发布于Substack的新闻通讯中指出，英伟达的采购义务激增，从去年同期的161亿美元攀升至952亿美元。包括库存和采购协议在内的总供应义务目前约为1170亿美元，几乎与英伟达的年运营现金流相当。在周三的公司第四财季财报电话会议上，英伟达首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯表示，库存环比增长了8%，并且英伟达\"战略性地锁定了库存和产能，以满足比通常更远的未来几个季度的需求\"。在贝里看来，英伟达的表态表明，这家美国最大的上市公司在确切了解未来需求强度之前，就承诺购买大量供应。这意味着更多资金被更长时间地困在库存中。\"并非暂时现象\"他写道：\"现在发生的一切并非暂时现象。这不是出口冲击，甚至不是外部因素造成的。这源于其商业计划内部。这一新现实反映了一个深思熟虑的决定，即比以往任何时候都更进一步地锁定供应链产能。\"这位著名投资者将当前情况与上世纪90年代末至2000年代初互联网泡沫顶峰时期的思科公司相提并论。在2000年和2001年，思科为确保产能以满足其快速增长预期，锁定了大量的供应承诺。当企业技术支出突然骤降时，思科面临的是无法消化的过剩库存和合同义务。该公司最终不得不减记数十亿美元，其股价也随之暴跌。\"这并非业务如常。这是风险，\"贝里在谈到英伟达时表示。\"在2000-2001年期间，思科延长了与供应商的采购承诺，以确保其预期的50%年增长率所需的产能，\"他说。诚然，这位投资者指出，英伟达目前超过70%的利润率高于当时思科的水平，这可能提供一些下行保护。但贝里认为，这些利润率是由异常强劲的需求和英伟达的提价能力所推动的。他写道：\"这类利润率可能会随着需求的变化而迅速回落。\"回应担忧尽管如此，并非所有人都将这种积压视为警示信号。罗森布拉特证券（Rosenblatt Securities）的分析师表示，管理层在本季度回应了投资者的多重担忧，包括GPU产能、来自定制芯片的竞争、电力供应、内存供应和客户融资等问题。罗森布拉特分析师在给客户的报告中写道：\"我们认为这是一个充满信心的管理团队，他们将支持客户对其下一代平台的需求，并继续引领人工智能市场的发展。\"这家华尔街公司周四将对英伟达的12个月目标价从245美元上调至300美元，这意味着未来一年有超过50%的上涨空间。英伟达股价周四早盘跌幅超5%。在ChatGPT推出后，该股在2023-2025年期间曾大幅飙升，但进入2026年以来，其涨幅不到1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":536972446875808,"gmtCreate":1772117758339,"gmtModify":1772117760911,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536972446875808","repostId":"536914396655712","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":536914396655712,"gmtCreate":1772005560000,"gmtModify":1772104582818,"author":{"id":"3518519652748814","authorId":"3518519652748814","name":"w奔波儿霸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518519652748814","idStr":"3518519652748814"},"themes":[],"title":"韩国科技投机逆袭中国","htmlText":"美国股市总是悠长的，哪怕近几年的纳斯达克科技牛市，从22年10月涨到25年10月，三年才从1万点涨到2万四。中国股市一直都是疯牛，经常在一年内就实现巨大涨幅。中国股市和美股的区别是，美股无论何种行情，大体上都要看业绩看估值，中国股市可以完全不看业绩，脱离业绩束缚才能短期暴涨。所以，中国股市一直都是全球科技投机的中军，无论是15年创业板，还是20年恒科中概。但最近这一轮，韩国股市逆袭了中国在科技投机的中军地位，韩国游资也逆袭了中国游资。对比下三轮科技投机的爆发力：创业板2015年初到6月，从1429涨到4037，2.82倍。同期韩国指数毫无反应。中概互联2020年3月到2021年2月，从32.28涨到87.68，2.71倍。同期韩国指数从1439涨到3316，2.3倍。韩国指数2025年4月到2026年2月至今，从2284涨到6144，2.69倍。同期创业板从1756涨到3416，1.94倍。韩国科技投机从15年的小透明，到20年的略施拳脚，到25 26年终于完成逆袭，成为科技投机的中军。从参与者成分来看，15年基本是中国资金主导，20年就有bill huang这样的韩国游资参与，25年韩国游资已经逆袭中国游资，开始主导。这轮投机牛市能持续多久，空间多大？看a股意义不大，因为韩国股市是主战场，中国股市是在做韩股映射。所以韩国股市才是具备决定性意义的。可以跟前两轮科技投机对比，本轮韩股从空间看涨幅已经非常接近15年创业板和20年中概，2.69倍/2.82 2.71，从时间看已经非常接近20年中概，10.5个月/11个月。15年创业板只有半年，是场外配资的加速作用。21年中概最后一轮上涨 持续了12个交易日，本轮韩股从2月9号至今 持续了10个交易日。为什么这一轮科技投机牛市，中国资产退居二线，韩股逆袭了？大概是因为中国有主力，每次股市一加速 主力就砸盘控稳，涨的不痛快不顺畅，比","listText":"美国股市总是悠长的，哪怕近几年的纳斯达克科技牛市，从22年10月涨到25年10月，三年才从1万点涨到2万四。中国股市一直都是疯牛，经常在一年内就实现巨大涨幅。中国股市和美股的区别是，美股无论何种行情，大体上都要看业绩看估值，中国股市可以完全不看业绩，脱离业绩束缚才能短期暴涨。所以，中国股市一直都是全球科技投机的中军，无论是15年创业板，还是20年恒科中概。但最近这一轮，韩国股市逆袭了中国在科技投机的中军地位，韩国游资也逆袭了中国游资。对比下三轮科技投机的爆发力：创业板2015年初到6月，从1429涨到4037，2.82倍。同期韩国指数毫无反应。中概互联2020年3月到2021年2月，从32.28涨到87.68，2.71倍。同期韩国指数从1439涨到3316，2.3倍。韩国指数2025年4月到2026年2月至今，从2284涨到6144，2.69倍。同期创业板从1756涨到3416，1.94倍。韩国科技投机从15年的小透明，到20年的略施拳脚，到25 26年终于完成逆袭，成为科技投机的中军。从参与者成分来看，15年基本是中国资金主导，20年就有bill huang这样的韩国游资参与，25年韩国游资已经逆袭中国游资，开始主导。这轮投机牛市能持续多久，空间多大？看a股意义不大，因为韩国股市是主战场，中国股市是在做韩股映射。所以韩国股市才是具备决定性意义的。可以跟前两轮科技投机对比，本轮韩股从空间看涨幅已经非常接近15年创业板和20年中概，2.69倍/2.82 2.71，从时间看已经非常接近20年中概，10.5个月/11个月。15年创业板只有半年，是场外配资的加速作用。21年中概最后一轮上涨 持续了12个交易日，本轮韩股从2月9号至今 持续了10个交易日。为什么这一轮科技投机牛市，中国资产退居二线，韩股逆袭了？大概是因为中国有主力，每次股市一加速 主力就砸盘控稳，涨的不痛快不顺畅，比","text":"美国股市总是悠长的，哪怕近几年的纳斯达克科技牛市，从22年10月涨到25年10月，三年才从1万点涨到2万四。中国股市一直都是疯牛，经常在一年内就实现巨大涨幅。中国股市和美股的区别是，美股无论何种行情，大体上都要看业绩看估值，中国股市可以完全不看业绩，脱离业绩束缚才能短期暴涨。所以，中国股市一直都是全球科技投机的中军，无论是15年创业板，还是20年恒科中概。但最近这一轮，韩国股市逆袭了中国在科技投机的中军地位，韩国游资也逆袭了中国游资。对比下三轮科技投机的爆发力：创业板2015年初到6月，从1429涨到4037，2.82倍。同期韩国指数毫无反应。中概互联2020年3月到2021年2月，从32.28涨到87.68，2.71倍。同期韩国指数从1439涨到3316，2.3倍。韩国指数2025年4月到2026年2月至今，从2284涨到6144，2.69倍。同期创业板从1756涨到3416，1.94倍。韩国科技投机从15年的小透明，到20年的略施拳脚，到25 26年终于完成逆袭，成为科技投机的中军。从参与者成分来看，15年基本是中国资金主导，20年就有bill huang这样的韩国游资参与，25年韩国游资已经逆袭中国游资，开始主导。这轮投机牛市能持续多久，空间多大？看a股意义不大，因为韩国股市是主战场，中国股市是在做韩股映射。所以韩国股市才是具备决定性意义的。可以跟前两轮科技投机对比，本轮韩股从空间看涨幅已经非常接近15年创业板和20年中概，2.69倍/2.82 2.71，从时间看已经非常接近20年中概，10.5个月/11个月。15年创业板只有半年，是场外配资的加速作用。21年中概最后一轮上涨 持续了12个交易日，本轮韩股从2月9号至今 持续了10个交易日。为什么这一轮科技投机牛市，中国资产退居二线，韩股逆袭了？大概是因为中国有主力，每次股市一加速 主力就砸盘控稳，涨的不痛快不顺畅，比","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536914396655712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":536885828965408,"gmtCreate":1772094726383,"gmtModify":1772095451651,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f27efa632c755a5c3dab61c26e53d6","width":"1122","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536885828965408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":536878343467888,"gmtCreate":1772094699796,"gmtModify":1772094712202,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a> 看看到底能跌到哪","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a> 看看到底能跌到哪","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ 看看到底能跌到哪","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1137132442939e96516fc56ce09229","width":"1122","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536878343467888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535126697481336,"gmtCreate":1771667054459,"gmtModify":1771667057158,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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[哟哟]","text":"恆生科技你敢做多? [哟哟]","html":"恆生科技你敢做多? 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</a>&nbsp;","text":"$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1355aa0e1fef1df66903a9dcafc850f7","width":"1122","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521681873228920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":921048615,"gmtCreate":1586006359237,"gmtModify":1704359983119,"author":{"id":"3532739630466926","authorId":"3532739630466926","name":"小加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d548cb70159d701d25de6b0be9a5eb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532739630466926","idStr":"3532739630466926"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/140328448054650\">@期权经略</a>: 巴菲特都食言了，三月中旬采访时表示不会出售航空公司股票！！！！想想巴老爷子，得多悲观，违背他的操作原则<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAC\">$太平洋航空(PAC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">$联合大陆航空(UAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYA.UK\">$瑞安航空(RYA.UK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALK\">$阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司(ALK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/140328448054650\">@期权经略</a>: 巴菲特都食言了，三月中旬采访时表示不会出售航空公司股票！！！！想想巴老爷子，得多悲观，违背他的操作原则<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAC\">$太平洋航空(PAC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">$联合大陆航空(UAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYA.UK\">$瑞安航空(RYA.UK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALK\">$阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司(ALK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>","text":"//@期权经略: 巴菲特都食言了，三月中旬采访时表示不会出售航空公司股票！！！！想想巴老爷子，得多悲观，违背他的操作原则$达美航空(DAL)$$西南航空(LUV)$$美国航空(AAL)$$太平洋航空(PAC)$$联合大陆航空(UAL)$$瑞安航空(RYA.UK)$$阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司(ALK)$$波音(BA)$$星巴克(SBUX)$$拼多多(PDD)$$苹果(AAPL)$$达美航空(DAL)$$美国航空(AAL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921048615","repostId":"2024797414","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2024797414","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1585971720,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2024797414?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-04 11:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2024797414","media":"金融界","summary":"原标题：巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场 来源：财联社北京时间4月4日消息，沃伦巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司周五表示，本周已出售了其持有的约18％的达美航空股份和4％的美国西南航空股份，因疫情","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场 来源：财联社</p><p>北京时间4月4日消息，沃伦巴菲特旗下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦公司周五表示，本周已出售了其持有的约18％的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>股份和4％的美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>股份，因疫情恐将航空业推入有史以来最大危机。受消息带动，达美航空股价盘后大跌11％。</p><p>巴菲特曾在3月中旬采访时表示，尽管市场遭到抛售，但他“不会出售航空公司股票”。</p><p>但根据提交给监管机构的文件，伯克希尔以约3.14亿美元出售了近1300万股达美航空的股票（出售价格在24.15美元附近），并以约7400万美元出售了约230万股西南航空的股票。</p><p>文件显示，出售是在周三和周四进行的。据Refinitiv的数据显示，伯克希尔此前持有达美航空约11.1％的股份，西南航空约10.4％的股份。巴菲特自2016年第三季度开始买进航空股，彼时达美航空股价平均在38美元左右，随后一路走高，期间巴菲特不断增持。伯克希尔是美国四大航空公司——达美航空、西南航空、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>集团和联合航空控股公司的最大股东之一。</p><p>1个月前曾抄底 如今果断“割肉”</p><p>往前追溯一个多月，根据美国证券交易委员会的文件，2月27日，在市场开始恐慌下跌之际，伯克希尔曾以平均46.40美元的价格购买了97.6万股达美航空，这笔投资如果按24美元的平均出售价格计算，股神亏损了48％。</p><p>达美航空：预计营收还要降90％</p><p>美国达美航空公司周五预计，接下来三个月的营收将骤降90％。</p><p>该公司首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安 （Ed Bastian）3日表示，“达美航空每天‘烧掉’超过6000万美元，而且这种情况还看不到底。”达美航空4月份已经取消了11.5万架次，即至少80％的航班。“我们不知道需要多久疫情才能得到控制，人们重新开始坐飞机。” 巴斯蒂安证实，根据上个月通过的2万亿美元经济救助法案，达美航空已经提交申请250亿美元援助。</p><p>不止“跌倒”过一次</p><p>其实，早在1989年巴菲特就曾“重仓”全美航空（该公司在2015年正式并入美国航空，成为全美及全球最大航空公司），耗资3.6亿美元购入全美航空优先股。巴菲特刚刚进场，该公司股票就开始下跌，到1995年时，这笔投资的净值已降至8950万美元，亏损75％。</p><p>但好在巴菲特最终以2.5亿美元的盈利将该笔投资出手，但其直到2007年还对航空业耿耿于怀：“千万别碰那些正在快速扩张的行业，这些行业的增长是建立在大量资金需求之上的。在快速扩张期间，这些公司根本就没法产生收益。航空公司就是典型代表。这类公司自始至终都没有建立持久的竞争优势。”</p><div></div><div></div></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-04 11:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-04-04/doc-iimxyqwa5049336.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场 来源：财联社北京时间4月4日消息，沃伦巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司周五表示，本周已出售了其持有的约18％的达美航空股份和4％的美国西南航空股份，因疫情恐将航空业推入有史以来最大危机。受消息带动，达美航空股价盘后大跌11％。巴菲特曾在3月中旬采访时表示，尽管市场遭到抛售，但他“不会出售航空公司股票”。但根据提交给监管机构的文件，伯克希尔以约3.14...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-04-04/doc-iimxyqwa5049336.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6582e9d3e5678a7425a15465867abe5","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","DAL":"达美航空","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-04-04/doc-iimxyqwa5049336.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2024797414","content_text":"原标题：巴菲特抛售航空股 “抄底”后亏50%出场 来源：财联社北京时间4月4日消息，沃伦巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司周五表示，本周已出售了其持有的约18％的达美航空股份和4％的美国西南航空股份，因疫情恐将航空业推入有史以来最大危机。受消息带动，达美航空股价盘后大跌11％。巴菲特曾在3月中旬采访时表示，尽管市场遭到抛售，但他“不会出售航空公司股票”。但根据提交给监管机构的文件，伯克希尔以约3.14亿美元出售了近1300万股达美航空的股票（出售价格在24.15美元附近），并以约7400万美元出售了约230万股西南航空的股票。文件显示，出售是在周三和周四进行的。据Refinitiv的数据显示，伯克希尔此前持有达美航空约11.1％的股份，西南航空约10.4％的股份。巴菲特自2016年第三季度开始买进航空股，彼时达美航空股价平均在38美元左右，随后一路走高，期间巴菲特不断增持。伯克希尔是美国四大航空公司——达美航空、西南航空、美国航空集团和联合航空控股公司的最大股东之一。1个月前曾抄底 如今果断“割肉”往前追溯一个多月，根据美国证券交易委员会的文件，2月27日，在市场开始恐慌下跌之际，伯克希尔曾以平均46.40美元的价格购买了97.6万股达美航空，这笔投资如果按24美元的平均出售价格计算，股神亏损了48％。达美航空：预计营收还要降90％美国达美航空公司周五预计，接下来三个月的营收将骤降90％。该公司首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安 （Ed Bastian）3日表示，“达美航空每天‘烧掉’超过6000万美元，而且这种情况还看不到底。”达美航空4月份已经取消了11.5万架次，即至少80％的航班。“我们不知道需要多久疫情才能得到控制，人们重新开始坐飞机。” 巴斯蒂安证实，根据上个月通过的2万亿美元经济救助法案，达美航空已经提交申请250亿美元援助。不止“跌倒”过一次其实，早在1989年巴菲特就曾“重仓”全美航空（该公司在2015年正式并入美国航空，成为全美及全球最大航空公司），耗资3.6亿美元购入全美航空优先股。巴菲特刚刚进场，该公司股票就开始下跌，到1995年时，这笔投资的净值已降至8950万美元，亏损75％。但好在巴菲特最终以2.5亿美元的盈利将该笔投资出手，但其直到2007年还对航空业耿耿于怀：“千万别碰那些正在快速扩张的行业，这些行业的增长是建立在大量资金需求之上的。在快速扩张期间，这些公司根本就没法产生收益。航空公司就是典型代表。这类公司自始至终都没有建立持久的竞争优势。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":1,"BRK.B":1,"DAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"80690914587468","authorId":"80690914587468","name":"老陆点五","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"80690914587468","idStr":"80690914587468"},"content":"你的意思是巴菲特，包括他团队里无数的手下，必须无条件给美国股市护盘，站岗？连短线高抛低吸也不允许？ 于情于理说不通吖。","text":"你的意思是巴菲特，包括他团队里无数的手下，必须无条件给美国股市护盘，站岗？连短线高抛低吸也不允许？ 于情于理说不通吖。","html":"你的意思是巴菲特，包括他团队里无数的手下，必须无条件给美国股市护盘，站岗？连短线高抛低吸也不允许？ 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