T111240的个人主页 - 老虎社区

T111240

T111240

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IP属地：广东

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07-10

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

OpenAI：ChatGPT Works将率先向Pro、Enterprise及Edu用户开放，Plus与Business版本将在未来数日内跟进

04-30

我都无语极了，又踩雷

2025-12-25

瑞银都自己干死自己了，还评别人[捂脸]

瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？

2025-12-11

记住了，他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元

比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫：部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛

2025-11-28

他就是用价格战最多的人，说这话有点恶心。

美团王兴：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续

2025-11-22

跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司"，市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的

自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温，特斯拉股价连日下跌

2025-11-20

SpaceX换字节，鬼佬换不[开心]

字节跳动仍受资本追捧，估值升至4800亿美元

2025-11-16

搞了40年这个鸟样，会讲不会做

图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta！我搞了40年AI，大模型是死路

2025-08-30

不是所有看轻人都是扎克

OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职

2025-02-24

他要是下几亿美金空单我就信了

特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机

2025-02-20

为什么国内的互联网企业就喜欢卷这些应用程序？补贴入场，大家亏损，然后再涨价，一点新的创造力都没？投这些企业的意义是什么？

2025-02-19

SA B 20年前说到现在

增长放缓，投资者过于乐观，亚马逊隐忧频现！

2025-02-09

干不过就禁，权力真是个好东西。

重磅！国资委权威解答：央企资产转让不应在阿里和京东交易

2024-12-26

听了十几年了，泡沫来了也不重要了

美股科技泡沫正在变得可怕，当心对冲基金抛售！

2024-12-10

真是个笑话

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-10-11

打他脸

富国银行第四季度交易策略，建议做空特斯拉

2024-09-22

难道高通的高管不清楚这些人人看得到的问题？我们想了解的是看不到的那些。例如制造板块是否会分离出去独立，芯片业务独立，各部分分离后的市场技术竞争力与估值，美国的政策方向。

郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难

2024-09-21

英特尔的代工业务估值应该好几百亿美元吧？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-09-13

拼多多真的是一群混蛋，搞坏了原有的市场环境，赔钱害大家

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-06-28

拿几千工资的人，评价万亿的企业与千亿的企业家

抱歉，原内容已删除

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01:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OpenAI宣布，其ChatGPT Works功能将开始面向专业版、企业版及教育版用户，在网页端与移动端同步推出。而Plus版与商业版用户则将在接下来的几天内陆续获得此功能更新。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU0859254822.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357627491.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"AH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2047632596.USD":"T.ROWE MULTI-ASSET GLOBAL 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18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元，并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；</p><p>•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；</p><p>•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) 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H2-SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2594625231","content_text":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：•美国市场拖累显著：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年利率贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；•欧洲市场环比回暖：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；•中国市场温和回升：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。��互动时间你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509649668694776,"gmtCreate":1765464227040,"gmtModify":1765464229731,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"记住了，他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","listText":"记住了，他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","text":"记住了，他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509649668694776","repostId":"2590560306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2590560306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765436015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2590560306?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-11 14:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫：部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2590560306","media":"ITBEAR科技资讯","summary":"比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时，就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出，当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间，这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折，建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。\"盖茨强调，当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象，某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。\"盖茨特别强调，投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值，避免将两者混为一谈。","content":"<html><body><article><p>比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时，就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出，当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间，这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折，建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。</p><p>\"人工智能无疑是改变人类文明进程的关键技术，但这不意味着所有高估值企业都能存活。\"盖茨强调，当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象，某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。他特别提到，当技术突破进入平台期后，市场将经历残酷的洗牌过程。</p><p>数据显示，部分科技企业的财务指标已出现显著偏离。以数据分析公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>和电动汽车巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>为例，其市盈率分别达到215倍和203倍，而同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分股的平均市盈率仅为25倍左右。这种悬殊的估值差异，正在引发市场对泡沫化的广泛讨论。</p><p>全球资本市场已开始显现调整迹象。11月全球主要股指集体回落，纳斯达克科技指数单月跌幅达5.6%。盖茨分析认为，这种波动本质上是对前期非理性繁荣的修正，特别是那些缺乏核心技术壁垒的企业，其估值泡沫破裂的风险正在累积。</p><p>尽管对短期风险保持警惕，这位科技巨头创始人仍对AI技术发展持坚定乐观态度。他详细列举了医疗诊断、个性化教育、精准农业等应用场景，认为这些领域将因AI技术产生革命性突破。\"当技术真正解决人类重大挑战时，其创造的价值将远超当前市场想象。\"盖茨特别强调，投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值，避免将两者混为一谈。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫：部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫：部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-11 14:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211150948979c3f1d&s=b><strong>ITBEAR科技资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时，就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出，当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间，这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折，建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。\"人工智能无疑是改变人类文明进程的关键技术，但这不意味着所有高估值企业都能存活。\"盖茨强调，当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象，某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。他特别提到，当技术突破...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211150948979c3f1d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) 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INCOME PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211150948979c3f1d&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2590560306","content_text":"比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时，就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出，当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间，这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折，建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。\"人工智能无疑是改变人类文明进程的关键技术，但这不意味着所有高估值企业都能存活。\"盖茨强调，当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象，某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。他特别提到，当技术突破进入平台期后，市场将经历残酷的洗牌过程。数据显示，部分科技企业的财务指标已出现显著偏离。以数据分析公司Palantir和电动汽车巨头特斯拉为例，其市盈率分别达到215倍和203倍，而同期标普500指数成分股的平均市盈率仅为25倍左右。这种悬殊的估值差异，正在引发市场对泡沫化的广泛讨论。全球资本市场已开始显现调整迹象。11月全球主要股指集体回落，纳斯达克科技指数单月跌幅达5.6%。盖茨分析认为，这种波动本质上是对前期非理性繁荣的修正，特别是那些缺乏核心技术壁垒的企业，其估值泡沫破裂的风险正在累积。尽管对短期风险保持警惕，这位科技巨头创始人仍对AI技术发展持坚定乐观态度。他详细列举了医疗诊断、个性化教育、精准农业等应用场景，认为这些领域将因AI技术产生革命性突破。\"当技术真正解决人类重大挑战时，其创造的价值将远超当前市场想象。\"盖茨特别强调，投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值，避免将两者混为一谈。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505088268247904,"gmtCreate":1764331417654,"gmtModify":1764331420425,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他就是用价格战最多的人，说这话有点恶心。","listText":"他就是用价格战最多的人，说这话有点恶心。","text":"他就是用价格战最多的人，说这话有点恶心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505088268247904","repostId":"2586011789","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2586011789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764329918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586011789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-28 19:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美团王兴：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586011789","media":"第一财经","summary":"11月28日晚，在美团第三季度财报电话会上，美团CEO王兴表示，“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场，外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争，我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续。”他表示，美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位，创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到，近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位，美团在实付超过15元的订单有2/3以上的份额，实付超过30元以上的订单有70%以上的份额。（第一财经记者 陆涵之）","content":"<div>\n<p>11月28日晚，在美团第三季度财报电话会上，美团CEO王兴表示，“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场，外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争，我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续。”他表示，美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位，创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到，近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位，美团在实付超过15元的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美团王兴：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-28 19:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月28日晚，在美团第三季度财报电话会上，美团CEO王兴表示，“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场，外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争，我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续。”他表示，美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位，创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到，近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位，美团在实付超过15元的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586011789","content_text":"11月28日晚，在美团第三季度财报电话会上，美团CEO王兴表示，“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场，外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争，我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续。”他表示，美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位，创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到，近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位，美团在实付超过15元的订单有2/3以上的份额，实付超过30元以上的订单有70%以上的份额。（第一财经记者 陆涵之）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":1.5,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"METmain":0.6,"MPNGY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502774035546600,"gmtCreate":1763775643137,"gmtModify":1763775645611,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\"，市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","listText":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\"，市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","text":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\"，市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502774035546600","repostId":"2585124479","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585124479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763770500,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585124479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-22 08:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温，特斯拉股价连日下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585124479","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，周五，特斯拉股价收低，盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待，与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯，使股价走势承压。尽管市场担忧升温，特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。他指出，特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域，并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。与此同时，特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价收低，盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待，与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯，使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中，特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌，该股周四跌幅超过2%，周五再度走低超1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d252e4da4a5335c145c1b167cd28082\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施，而部分项目尚未产生正向现金流。在此背景下，特斯拉以其在数据中心、AI芯片以及FSD(完全自动驾驶)软件方面的投入，被投资者视为“AI机器人公司”的代表之一，这也使其股价更受情绪影响。</p><p>尽管市场担忧升温，特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。</p><p>据报道，特斯拉近日完成在内华达州运营机器人出租车的自我认证程序，并获得当地机动车管理局颁发的“运营合规证书”，允许其在公共道路测试无人驾驶车辆，但商业化运营仍需获得内华达州交通管理局批准。</p><p>同一周内，亚利桑那州交通运输厅也确认，特斯拉已完成当地机器人出租车业务所需的全部流程，首期项目将继续配备安全员，模式与特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区的服务类似。目前，美国市场上已有竞争对手如Waymo在部分城市提供无需安全员的L4级自动驾驶服务。</p><p>华尔街对特斯拉的自动驾驶前景保持关注。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFB\">Stifel</a>分析师Stephen Gengaro本周上调特斯拉目标价至508美元，并继续给予“买入”评级。他指出，特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域，并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。</p><p>与此同时，特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。据报道，特斯拉在华盛顿州遭遇新的诉讼，涉及2023年初的一起 Model 3事故。一辆车辆据称在失控加速后撞上电线杆并起火，事故导致一人死亡、一人严重受伤。诉状称，事故发生后救援人员因车辆门把手无法正常操作而难以及时进入车内。这起案件是继威斯康星州另一宗涉及Model S的诉讼之后，近期关于电动车门机构争议的最新案例。相关案件仍在法律程序中。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五，特斯拉股价收低，盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待，与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯，使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中，特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌，该股周四跌幅超过2%，周五再度走低超1%。近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施，而部分项目尚未产生正向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585124479","content_text":"周五，特斯拉股价收低，盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待，与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯，使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中，特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌，该股周四跌幅超过2%，周五再度走低超1%。近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施，而部分项目尚未产生正向现金流。在此背景下，特斯拉以其在数据中心、AI芯片以及FSD(完全自动驾驶)软件方面的投入，被投资者视为“AI机器人公司”的代表之一，这也使其股价更受情绪影响。尽管市场担忧升温，特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。据报道，特斯拉近日完成在内华达州运营机器人出租车的自我认证程序，并获得当地机动车管理局颁发的“运营合规证书”，允许其在公共道路测试无人驾驶车辆，但商业化运营仍需获得内华达州交通管理局批准。同一周内，亚利桑那州交通运输厅也确认，特斯拉已完成当地机器人出租车业务所需的全部流程，首期项目将继续配备安全员，模式与特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区的服务类似。目前，美国市场上已有竞争对手如Waymo在部分城市提供无需安全员的L4级自动驾驶服务。华尔街对特斯拉的自动驾驶前景保持关注。Stifel分析师Stephen Gengaro本周上调特斯拉目标价至508美元，并继续给予“买入”评级。他指出，特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域，并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。与此同时，特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。据报道，特斯拉在华盛顿州遭遇新的诉讼，涉及2023年初的一起 Model 3事故。一辆车辆据称在失控加速后撞上电线杆并起火，事故导致一人死亡、一人严重受伤。诉状称，事故发生后救援人员因车辆门把手无法正常操作而难以及时进入车内。这起案件是继威斯康星州另一宗涉及Model S的诉讼之后，近期关于电动车门机构争议的最新案例。相关案件仍在法律程序中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502247317508304,"gmtCreate":1763638056890,"gmtModify":1763638059370,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"SpaceX换字节，鬼佬换不[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"SpaceX换字节，鬼佬换不[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"SpaceX换字节，鬼佬换不[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502247317508304","repostId":"2584513860","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2584513860","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1763635686,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584513860?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-20 18:48","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"字节跳动仍受资本追捧，估值升至4800亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584513860","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今日资本近日通过股权拍卖，以约4800亿美元估值从字节跳动早期投资方中银集团投资有限公司收购部分股权，成交金额达3亿美元，成为该公司年内最大规模的二级市场交易之一。知情人士称，竞价过程激烈，反映出资本市场对字节跳动在AI技术布局与全球业务拓展方面的持续看好。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本<strong>，在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份，资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。</strong></p>\n<p>11月20日，据媒体报道，今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构，从字节跳动早期投资方<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02388\">中银</a>集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等多家互联网巨头。</p>\n<p>据媒体援引知情人士，该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值，定价约2亿美元。<strong>随着七家机构参与竞价，最终成交价推高至约3亿美元，对应估值接近5000亿美元。</strong>知情人士表示，这笔交易是今年字节跳动最大的二级市场交易之一。</p>\n<p>有分析人士表示，此次拍卖中如此激烈的竞价，很可能源于本次股份出售的稀缺性，以及投资者对字节跳动AI技术与全球业务增长前景的认可。</p>\n<h2>估值大幅上涨</h2>\n<p>根据媒体报道，<strong>字节跳动估值在近期交易中呈现显著上升趋势。</strong>知情人士指出，该公司去年9月推出的员工股票回购计划对应估值约为3300亿美元。他们还补充说，该公司此后一直在筹备面向机构股东的年度股票回购计划。</p>\n<p>此前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>和富达投资在内的多家主要投资者，已将其持有的字节跳动股份估值上调至超过4000亿美元。</p>\n<p>据CB Insights数据显示，若以当前市场估值计算，字节跳动已超越SpaceX（估值约4000亿美元），成为全球估值排名第二的初创企业，仅次于估值达5000亿美元的OpenAI。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>字节跳动仍受资本追捧，估值升至4800亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n字节跳动仍受资本追捧，估值升至4800亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-20 18:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本<strong>，在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份，资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。</strong></p>\n<p>11月20日，据媒体报道，今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构，从字节跳动早期投资方<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02388\">中银</a>集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等多家互联网巨头。</p>\n<p>据媒体援引知情人士，该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值，定价约2亿美元。<strong>随着七家机构参与竞价，最终成交价推高至约3亿美元，对应估值接近5000亿美元。</strong>知情人士表示，这笔交易是今年字节跳动最大的二级市场交易之一。</p>\n<p>有分析人士表示，此次拍卖中如此激烈的竞价，很可能源于本次股份出售的稀缺性，以及投资者对字节跳动AI技术与全球业务增长前景的认可。</p>\n<h2>估值大幅上涨</h2>\n<p>根据媒体报道，<strong>字节跳动估值在近期交易中呈现显著上升趋势。</strong>知情人士指出，该公司去年9月推出的员工股票回购计划对应估值约为3300亿美元。他们还补充说，该公司此后一直在筹备面向机构股东的年度股票回购计划。</p>\n<p>此前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>和富达投资在内的多家主要投资者，已将其持有的字节跳动股份估值上调至超过4000亿美元。</p>\n<p>据CB Insights数据显示，若以当前市场估值计算，字节跳动已超越SpaceX（估值约4000亿美元），成为全球估值排名第二的初创企业，仅次于估值达5000亿美元的OpenAI。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2958907307044929d330311c413c1a4f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759807","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2584513860","content_text":"“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本，在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份，资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。\n11月20日，据媒体报道，今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构，从字节跳动早期投资方中银集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资美团、京东等多家互联网巨头。\n据媒体援引知情人士，该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值，定价约2亿美元。随着七家机构参与竞价，最终成交价推高至约3亿美元，对应估值接近5000亿美元。知情人士表示，这笔交易是今年字节跳动最大的二级市场交易之一。\n有分析人士表示，此次拍卖中如此激烈的竞价，很可能源于本次股份出售的稀缺性，以及投资者对字节跳动AI技术与全球业务增长前景的认可。\n估值大幅上涨\n根据媒体报道，字节跳动估值在近期交易中呈现显著上升趋势。知情人士指出，该公司去年9月推出的员工股票回购计划对应估值约为3300亿美元。他们还补充说，该公司此后一直在筹备面向机构股东的年度股票回购计划。\n此前，包括软银集团和富达投资在内的多家主要投资者，已将其持有的字节跳动股份估值上调至超过4000亿美元。\n据CB Insights数据显示，若以当前市场估值计算，字节跳动已超越SpaceX（估值约4000亿美元），成为全球估值排名第二的初创企业，仅次于估值达5000亿美元的OpenAI。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500789181395032,"gmtCreate":1763303291387,"gmtModify":1763344103645,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"搞了40年这个鸟样，会讲不会做","listText":"搞了40年这个鸟样，会讲不会做","text":"搞了40年这个鸟样，会讲不会做","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500789181395032","repostId":"2583663018","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2583663018","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763270531,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2583663018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-16 13:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta！我搞了40年AI，大模型是死路","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2583663018","media":"新智元","summary":"新智元报道编辑：KingHZ图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳！今年夏天，年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官，让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。媒体不断有消息放出，Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。现在，LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”，终于要离职了。LeCun离开Meta，或为了世界模型此前报道，他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资，组建专注世界模型的团队。","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/35B2F44437EC56FA89DE0FA77763972EDF47BCBA_size47_w1080_h459.jpg\"/></p><p><strong>新智元报道</strong></p><p>编辑：KingHZ</p><p><strong>【新智元导读】图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳！LLM邪路一条，“世界模型才是”未来。</strong></p><p>Meta风向已变，Yann LeCun承认马上离职！</p><p>据多家权威媒体报道，Meta首席AI科学家、负责“基础AI研究”（FAIR）的Yann LeCun，预计将很快离职。</p><p>这位65岁的AI界元老，在Meta这家全球最大的科技公司之一担任核心大脑，可以说拥有无限的资源。</p><p>Meta可谓挥金如土。它用天价薪酬疯狂从对手那里挖角顶尖AI专家。</p><p>在7月，扎克伯格甚至宣称“超级智能已近在眼前”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/1987A151D37CD19E73C0A7E1EC6DCEB0F40447E1_size181_w1080_h564.png\"/></p><p>那么，LeCun为何要离开Meta呢？只是因为Meta的人事动荡吗？背后有何隐情？</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/DBAE50AA0E166C71D164747F2EE8B1CC86E81C35_size119_w1080_h475.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>小扎转向，LeCun失势？</strong></p><p>今年夏天，年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官，让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。</p><p>此外，Meta今年还任命了另一位相对年轻的首席科学家赵晟佳（Shengjia Zhao），职位也在LeCun之上。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/77C4A7773204D72C23595A5C1980FB461C16B7B5_size359_w1080_h584.png\"/></p><p>在官方公告中，Meta盛赞了赵晟佳在scaling方面带来的“突破”。而LeCun恰恰对scaling失去了信心。</p><p>他还告诫博士生：“不要做LLM”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/11EC829A0F617926A8887B8F1D2BC9D62EFA4CA7_size176_w1080_h458.png\"/></p><p>如果你好奇为什么LeCun和Zhao都是首席科学家，那是因为Meta的AI部门组织架构相当奇特，分成了多个独立的团队。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/7707187829EA9D520B8EA4DB7009BF4EF25B70CE_size185_w1080_h752.png\"/></p><p>媒体不断有消息放出，Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。</p><p>上个月，Meta超级AI实验室裁掉了数百人，包括10年老将田渊栋。据称，这是为了理顺这种混乱的局面。</p><p>这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/E42B36BD65F4E9A36DBF8AF3228B09C81D4BB33D_size202_w1080_h521.png\"/></p><p>而那支曾由LeCun领导、风头一时无两的FAIR，如今早已<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301100\">风光</a>不再。据现任与前员工透露，这个部门经历了裁员、预算缩水，内部影响力也明显下降。</p><p>曾几何时，FAIR是Meta内部思想最活跃的“象牙塔”，研究人员可以探讨各种AI未来路径，甚至可以做些“未必能成”的实验，完全不用担心产品化问题。</p><p>而现在，Meta新组建的AI研究部门招来一大批高薪新兵，由Wang主导，目标明确：要快、要落地、要产品化。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>在AI上，他领先了40年</strong></p><p>LeCun一向走在时代前沿——</p><p>早在“机器学习”还不被主流认可时，他就开始研究这个方向。</p><p>他曾在多伦多的Geoffrey Hinton实验室工作，那时Hinton还没成为AI传奇人物。</p><p>之后，他的职业生涯大多时间都在新泽西州的贝尔实验室度过，这家机构因诞生众多创新发明而闻名。</p><p>1947年，贝尔实验室发明晶体管</p><p>“最让我兴奋的事情，就是和比我聪明的人共事，因为这会放大你的能力。”LeCun在2023年杂志采访时说道。</p><p>在贝尔实验室，LeCun曾参与开发手写识别技术，这项技术后来被广泛应用于银行自动读取支票。他还参与了一个项目，致力于将纸质文档数字化并通过互联网分发。</p><p>LeCun曾表示，自己从小就对物理感兴趣，在贝尔实验室期间也主要和物理学家合作，看了不少物理教材。</p><p>我学到了很多表面上与AI或计算机科学无关的东西（我本科是电气工程，计算机方面的正规训练其实很少）。</p><p>2003年，LeCun开始在纽约大学教授计算机科学，后来成为该校数据科学中心的创始主任。</p><p>2013年，扎克伯格亲自邀请他加入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>（当时还未更名为Meta），组建全新的AI实验室。</p><p>他领导这个团队四年，2018年卸任，转为公司首席AI科学家，以“个人研究员”身份继续探索技术前沿。</p><p>2018年，他与Geoffrey Hinton和Yoshua Bengio共同获得图灵奖——计算机界的最高荣誉，以表彰三人在神经网络方面的奠基性工作。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/09D6644675C1986FC32304EA2ECFADE129E6A8A3_size83_w1080_h608.jpg\"/></p><p>自那之后，LeCun就逐渐转为“象征性人物”角色。他没有参与Meta首个开源大语言模型Llama的研发，也早就不再参与这类项目的日常工作。</p><p>据与他共事的人透露，LeCun现在主要在做自己的研究项目，也经常出席各种技术会议，发表对AI技术的看法。</p><p>面对媒体的报道，Yann LeCun只是指出了报道中的“小错误”，并没有否认即将离职的消息。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/FAA6081315B65652272BA9584C773B1C83E14F6E_size429_w1080_h942.png\"/></p><p>他知道自己在包括Meta在内的整个硅谷技术圈内，备受冷落。上个月在MIT的一次研讨会上，65岁的LeCun直言：</p><p>这些年，我在硅谷、包括Meta的很多角落都不太受欢迎，因为我一直在说，3到5年内，世界模型将成为主流AI架构，没人再会愿意用现在这种LLM。</p><p>但他坚信自己对AI未来的判断。他的老朋友Léon Bottou曾告诉媒体，LeCun“倔强得可爱”——他会听别人意见，但更有自己坚守的信念。</p><p>现在，LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”，终于要离职了。</p><p>实际上，他早已多次暗示答案。</p><p>在通往通用人工智能的道路上，LeCun近来以其对大语言模型的尖锐批评而闻名。</p><p>他认为，无论科技巨头如何扩大其规模，我们目前所理解的大语言模型都已是“强弩之末”，是一条“岔路、干扰，一条死胡同”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/2EC3C9ACE52BE9259EFAD471D6465B9149B16EA8_size748_w1080_h608.png\"/></p><p>他投身AI研究已有40年，对AI的判断屡屡应验。如今，他认为大多数人都错了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/B448D064609E4F6D631150F6AAEECE9F083E5CFC_size254_w1080_h423.png\"/></p><p>他为现代AI奠定了诸多基础。而现在他坚信，领域内的大多数人都被大语言模型的“海妖之歌”引入了歧途。</p><p>这为他的离职提供了更多可能的解释。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>LeCun离开Meta，或为了世界模型</strong></p><p>此前报道，他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资，组建专注世界模型的团队。</p><p><strong>所谓“世界模型”，类似小动物或婴儿那样，通过视觉等感知数据主动学习世界规律；而LLM只是依赖海量文本做预测的模型。</strong></p><p>LeCun本人也从不避讳解释为何他认为“世界模型”才是AI的答案。</p><p>Meta的Llama、OpenAI的GPT、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的Bard这些模型，都是靠<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>训练出来的。LeCun估算，如果让人去读完它们训练所需的所有文本，大概得花10万年。</p><p><strong>但人类学习的主要方式，并不是读文本。</strong></p><p>我们从与世界的互动中，获取的信息要多得多。LeCun估计，一个普通的四岁小孩接触过的数据量，是目前最大的LLM的50倍。</p><p>大部分人类知识，其实不是语言。</p><p>所以这些系统永远不可能达到人类水平的智能——除非你彻底改掉它们的架构。</p><p>而他自己，早就准备好了替代方案。他称之为“目标驱动的AI”（objective-driven AI）。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/273AF6B25BF7A5657B07F12D49EEBC8D97B77AC1_size362_w1080_h609.png\"/></p><p>目标驱动的AI系统的构建宗旨，是完成人类设定的特定目标。</p><p>与仅靠纯文本数据驱动不同，它们通过传感器和视频数据训练来认知物理世界。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/33B51034C7EE219E640017371643222B1ED8069F_size92_w612_h590.jpg\"/></p><p>由此构建出的“世界模型”能呈现行动带来的影响，所有潜在变化都会实时更新至系统记忆。</p><p><strong><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/EA67F8318234F4BA42DD687A2695DE1D0AA7B3C8_size3_w292_h73.png\"/></strong></p><p><strong>他为何对世界模型如此沉迷？</strong></p><p>在年初的“巴黎AI峰会”上，Yann LeCun明确指出，他是可穿戴设备的坚定信徒。</p><p>他认为，未来，我们需要与可穿戴设备互动，就像与人交流一样，而大语言模型根本不像人类那样理解世界。</p><p>对于大语言模型，我们甚至无法复制猫或老鼠的智能，更不用说狗了。</p><p>这些动物能完成惊人的壮举，它们理解物理世界。任何一只家猫都能规划出极其复杂的行动，<strong>因为它们拥有关于世界的因果模型</strong>。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/60B1A2297A4890E473BD69CE9D9C9045380C1A21_size347_w1080_h508.png\"/></p><p>为了说明这一点，LeCun设计了一个<strong>思想实验</strong>：“想象一个立方体悬浮在你面前的空中。好，现在让这个立方体绕着垂直轴旋转90度。它会是什么样子？”</p><p>他认为任何人类都能轻松完成，而大语言模型却无能为力：</p><p>“对人来说，在脑海中构建一个旋转立方体的心理模型，非常容易。”</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/99ACBB5B2E39B6F9C017055D1E9CD91BCA531AE5_size452_w1080_h724.png\"/></p><p>当然，大语言模型可以毫不费力地写一首关于悬浮旋转立方体的打油诗，<strong>但它无法真正帮助你与这个立方体互动。</strong></p><p><strong>LeCun断言，这是因为文本数据与处理非文本世界所获得的数据之间存在本质差异。</strong></p><p>他指出，尽管大语言模型训练所用的文本量需要一个人花45万年才能读完，但一个四岁的孩子在醒着的16000小时里，通过眼睛看、用手触摸，已经处理了高达1.4x10^14字节的关于世界的感觉数据——</p><p>他认为这比大语言模型处理的数据还要多。</p><p>顺便一提，这些只是LeCun在演讲中给出的估算，他在其他场合也给过不同的数字。但这些数字指向的核心观点是：<strong>大语言模型存在着局限，而LeCun相信世界模型能够克服这些局限。</strong></p><p><strong><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/EA67F8318234F4BA42DD687A2695DE1D0AA7B3C8_size3_w292_h73.png\"/></strong></p><p><strong>他又将如何构建世界模型？</strong></p><p>在Meta时，LeCun其实已经开始研究世界模型——他还拍了一个介绍视频，开头就让你想象一个旋转的立方体。</p><p>在AI行动峰会的演讲中，他<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>中的模型包含一个对“当前世界状态的估计”，以某种抽象形式呈现与当前情境相关的一切。它不再是按顺序预测token，而是“预测在你采取一系列行动后，世界将达到的最终状态”。</p><p>他表示，世界模型将使未来的计算机科学家能够构建出“可以规划行动——可能是分层级的——以实现某个目标的系统，以及能够进行推理的系统。”</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/91E70EFF149E4F3F202C2A471EF7B8FD7BA72C5E_size592_w1080_h611.png\"/></p><p>LeCun还坚称，这类系统将拥有更强大的安全特性，因为控制它们的方式是内置的，而不是像现在这样，面对一个神秘莫测、只会输出文本的黑箱，只能通过微调来加以修正。</p><p>LeCun所说的经典AI——例如搜索引擎中使用的软件——所有问题都可以归结为优化问题。</p><p>他提出，他的世界模型将审视当前的世界状态，并通过寻找高效的解决方案，来寻求与某个不同状态的兼容性。</p><p>LeCun在演讲中解释道：“你需要一个能量函数来衡量不兼容性，给定一个x，找到一个对于该x能量较低的y”。</p><p>如果说，我们从LeCun的公开言论中拼凑出的“真相”很粗糙、有些模糊，甚至完全错误，那也完全正常。</p><p>LeCun似乎正在构想一个“登月计划”——</p><p>他希望推动AI领域迎来又一次类似ChatGPT那样的、诞生惊人能力的爆发式发展。</p><p>但这可能需要耗费数年——甚至永远无法实现——更不用说数十亿美元的投资了，才可能看到任何真正了不起的成果。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta！我搞了40年AI，大模型是死路</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta！我搞了40年AI，大模型是死路\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-16 13:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oKJxCr1I89><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新智元报道编辑：KingHZ【新智元导读】图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳！LLM邪路一条，“世界模型才是”未来。Meta风向已变，Yann LeCun承认马上离职！据多家权威媒体报道，Meta首席AI科学家、负责“基础AI研究”（FAIR）的Yann LeCun，预计将很快离职。这位65岁的AI界元老，在Meta这家全球最大的科技公司之一担任核心大脑，可以说拥有无限的资源。Meta可谓...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oKJxCr1I89\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","LU2764263039.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0784383803.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A\" (USD) INC A","LU1697837992.HKD":"BGF DYNAMIC HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2764262908.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 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LeCun，预计将很快离职。这位65岁的AI界元老，在Meta这家全球最大的科技公司之一担任核心大脑，可以说拥有无限的资源。Meta可谓挥金如土。它用天价薪酬疯狂从对手那里挖角顶尖AI专家。在7月，扎克伯格甚至宣称“超级智能已近在眼前”。那么，LeCun为何要离开Meta呢？只是因为Meta的人事动荡吗？背后有何隐情？小扎转向，LeCun失势？今年夏天，年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官，让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。此外，Meta今年还任命了另一位相对年轻的首席科学家赵晟佳（Shengjia Zhao），职位也在LeCun之上。在官方公告中，Meta盛赞了赵晟佳在scaling方面带来的“突破”。而LeCun恰恰对scaling失去了信心。他还告诫博士生：“不要做LLM”。如果你好奇为什么LeCun和Zhao都是首席科学家，那是因为Meta的AI部门组织架构相当奇特，分成了多个独立的团队。媒体不断有消息放出，Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。上个月，Meta超级AI实验室裁掉了数百人，包括10年老将田渊栋。据称，这是为了理顺这种混乱的局面。这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。而那支曾由LeCun领导、风头一时无两的FAIR，如今早已风光不再。据现任与前员工透露，这个部门经历了裁员、预算缩水，内部影响力也明显下降。曾几何时，FAIR是Meta内部思想最活跃的“象牙塔”，研究人员可以探讨各种AI未来路径，甚至可以做些“未必能成”的实验，完全不用担心产品化问题。而现在，Meta新组建的AI研究部门招来一大批高薪新兵，由Wang主导，目标明确：要快、要落地、要产品化。在AI上，他领先了40年LeCun一向走在时代前沿——早在“机器学习”还不被主流认可时，他就开始研究这个方向。他曾在多伦多的Geoffrey Hinton实验室工作，那时Hinton还没成为AI传奇人物。之后，他的职业生涯大多时间都在新泽西州的贝尔实验室度过，这家机构因诞生众多创新发明而闻名。1947年，贝尔实验室发明晶体管“最让我兴奋的事情，就是和比我聪明的人共事，因为这会放大你的能力。”LeCun在2023年杂志采访时说道。在贝尔实验室，LeCun曾参与开发手写识别技术，这项技术后来被广泛应用于银行自动读取支票。他还参与了一个项目，致力于将纸质文档数字化并通过互联网分发。LeCun曾表示，自己从小就对物理感兴趣，在贝尔实验室期间也主要和物理学家合作，看了不少物理教材。我学到了很多表面上与AI或计算机科学无关的东西（我本科是电气工程，计算机方面的正规训练其实很少）。2003年，LeCun开始在纽约大学教授计算机科学，后来成为该校数据科学中心的创始主任。2013年，扎克伯格亲自邀请他加入Facebook（当时还未更名为Meta），组建全新的AI实验室。他领导这个团队四年，2018年卸任，转为公司首席AI科学家，以“个人研究员”身份继续探索技术前沿。2018年，他与Geoffrey Hinton和Yoshua Bengio共同获得图灵奖——计算机界的最高荣誉，以表彰三人在神经网络方面的奠基性工作。自那之后，LeCun就逐渐转为“象征性人物”角色。他没有参与Meta首个开源大语言模型Llama的研发，也早就不再参与这类项目的日常工作。据与他共事的人透露，LeCun现在主要在做自己的研究项目，也经常出席各种技术会议，发表对AI技术的看法。面对媒体的报道，Yann LeCun只是指出了报道中的“小错误”，并没有否认即将离职的消息。他知道自己在包括Meta在内的整个硅谷技术圈内，备受冷落。上个月在MIT的一次研讨会上，65岁的LeCun直言：这些年，我在硅谷、包括Meta的很多角落都不太受欢迎，因为我一直在说，3到5年内，世界模型将成为主流AI架构，没人再会愿意用现在这种LLM。但他坚信自己对AI未来的判断。他的老朋友Léon Bottou曾告诉媒体，LeCun“倔强得可爱”——他会听别人意见，但更有自己坚守的信念。现在，LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”，终于要离职了。实际上，他早已多次暗示答案。在通往通用人工智能的道路上，LeCun近来以其对大语言模型的尖锐批评而闻名。他认为，无论科技巨头如何扩大其规模，我们目前所理解的大语言模型都已是“强弩之末”，是一条“岔路、干扰，一条死胡同”。他投身AI研究已有40年，对AI的判断屡屡应验。如今，他认为大多数人都错了。他为现代AI奠定了诸多基础。而现在他坚信，领域内的大多数人都被大语言模型的“海妖之歌”引入了歧途。这为他的离职提供了更多可能的解释。LeCun离开Meta，或为了世界模型此前报道，他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资，组建专注世界模型的团队。所谓“世界模型”，类似小动物或婴儿那样，通过视觉等感知数据主动学习世界规律；而LLM只是依赖海量文本做预测的模型。LeCun本人也从不避讳解释为何他认为“世界模型”才是AI的答案。Meta的Llama、OpenAI的GPT、谷歌的Bard这些模型，都是靠海量数据训练出来的。LeCun估算，如果让人去读完它们训练所需的所有文本，大概得花10万年。但人类学习的主要方式，并不是读文本。我们从与世界的互动中，获取的信息要多得多。LeCun估计，一个普通的四岁小孩接触过的数据量，是目前最大的LLM的50倍。大部分人类知识，其实不是语言。所以这些系统永远不可能达到人类水平的智能——除非你彻底改掉它们的架构。而他自己，早就准备好了替代方案。他称之为“目标驱动的AI”（objective-driven AI）。目标驱动的AI系统的构建宗旨，是完成人类设定的特定目标。与仅靠纯文本数据驱动不同，它们通过传感器和视频数据训练来认知物理世界。由此构建出的“世界模型”能呈现行动带来的影响，所有潜在变化都会实时更新至系统记忆。他为何对世界模型如此沉迷？在年初的“巴黎AI峰会”上，Yann LeCun明确指出，他是可穿戴设备的坚定信徒。他认为，未来，我们需要与可穿戴设备互动，就像与人交流一样，而大语言模型根本不像人类那样理解世界。对于大语言模型，我们甚至无法复制猫或老鼠的智能，更不用说狗了。这些动物能完成惊人的壮举，它们理解物理世界。任何一只家猫都能规划出极其复杂的行动，因为它们拥有关于世界的因果模型。为了说明这一点，LeCun设计了一个思想实验：“想象一个立方体悬浮在你面前的空中。好，现在让这个立方体绕着垂直轴旋转90度。它会是什么样子？”他认为任何人类都能轻松完成，而大语言模型却无能为力：“对人来说，在脑海中构建一个旋转立方体的心理模型，非常容易。”当然，大语言模型可以毫不费力地写一首关于悬浮旋转立方体的打油诗，但它无法真正帮助你与这个立方体互动。LeCun断言，这是因为文本数据与处理非文本世界所获得的数据之间存在本质差异。他指出，尽管大语言模型训练所用的文本量需要一个人花45万年才能读完，但一个四岁的孩子在醒着的16000小时里，通过眼睛看、用手触摸，已经处理了高达1.4x10^14字节的关于世界的感觉数据——他认为这比大语言模型处理的数据还要多。顺便一提，这些只是LeCun在演讲中给出的估算，他在其他场合也给过不同的数字。但这些数字指向的核心观点是：大语言模型存在着局限，而LeCun相信世界模型能够克服这些局限。他又将如何构建世界模型？在Meta时，LeCun其实已经开始研究世界模型——他还拍了一个介绍视频，开头就让你想象一个旋转的立方体。在AI行动峰会的演讲中，他理想中的模型包含一个对“当前世界状态的估计”，以某种抽象形式呈现与当前情境相关的一切。它不再是按顺序预测token，而是“预测在你采取一系列行动后，世界将达到的最终状态”。他表示，世界模型将使未来的计算机科学家能够构建出“可以规划行动——可能是分层级的——以实现某个目标的系统，以及能够进行推理的系统。”LeCun还坚称，这类系统将拥有更强大的安全特性，因为控制它们的方式是内置的，而不是像现在这样，面对一个神秘莫测、只会输出文本的黑箱，只能通过微调来加以修正。LeCun所说的经典AI——例如搜索引擎中使用的软件——所有问题都可以归结为优化问题。他提出，他的世界模型将审视当前的世界状态，并通过寻找高效的解决方案，来寻求与某个不同状态的兼容性。LeCun在演讲中解释道：“你需要一个能量函数来衡量不兼容性，给定一个x，找到一个对于该x能量较低的y”。如果说，我们从LeCun的公开言论中拼凑出的“真相”很粗糙、有些模糊，甚至完全错误，那也完全正常。LeCun似乎正在构想一个“登月计划”——他希望推动AI领域迎来又一次类似ChatGPT那样的、诞生惊人能力的爆发式发展。但这可能需要耗费数年——甚至永远无法实现——更不用说数十亿美元的投资了，才可能看到任何真正了不起的成果。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.5,"FB":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472944432316488,"gmtCreate":1756517421113,"gmtModify":1756517422805,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不是所有看轻人都是扎克","listText":"不是所有看轻人都是扎克","text":"不是所有看轻人都是扎克","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472944432316488","repostId":"1115034373","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115034373","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球快讯第一时间播报","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美股速递","id":"1004306016","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a"},"pubTimestamp":1756461888,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115034373?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 18:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115034373","media":"美股速递","summary":"OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职","content":"<p>OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1004306016\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股速递 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-29 18:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OpenAI ChatGPT联合创始人赵圣嘉加入Meta几天内就威胁辞职</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2092937221.SGD":"Blackrock Circular Economy A2 SGD-H","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0256863902.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1235295455.SGD":"Fidelity Global Multi Asset Growth & Income A-ACC-SGD","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1032466523.USD":"高盛全球多资产收益组合Acc","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1043141396.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) 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Now he&#39;s doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-02-24 13:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：</strong></p><p><strong>1． FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2． 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3． 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4． 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk&#39;s biggest believer. Now he&#39;s doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74682068d49f2901bc7ff0be69cf3e49","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103660322","content_text":"他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。2月24日，特斯拉投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：1． FSD“行不通”格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”2． 马斯克分心了从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”3． 电动汽车销售放缓虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。4． 特斯拉估值较高相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的英伟达（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。摩根大通对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk's biggest believer. Now he's doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"TSLL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405385664462880,"gmtCreate":1740016588910,"gmtModify":1740016591073,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"为什么国内的互联网企业就喜欢卷这些应用程序？补贴入场，大家亏损，然后再涨价，一点新的创造力都没？投这些企业的意义是什么？","listText":"为什么国内的互联网企业就喜欢卷这些应用程序？补贴入场，大家亏损，然后再涨价，一点新的创造力都没？投这些企业的意义是什么？","text":"为什么国内的互联网企业就喜欢卷这些应用程序？补贴入场，大家亏损，然后再涨价，一点新的创造力都没？投这些企业的意义是什么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405385664462880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405277920514264,"gmtCreate":1739968980834,"gmtModify":1739968982555,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"SA B 20年前说到现在","listText":"SA B 20年前说到现在","text":"SA B 20年前说到现在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405277920514264","repostId":"2512510574","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2512510574","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1739965407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2512510574?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-19 19:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"增长放缓，投资者过于乐观，亚马逊隐忧频现！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2512510574","media":"美股研究社","summary":"虽然 SMA 显示该股仍存在长期看涨势头，但亚马逊的短期走势可能令人担忧，因为 EMA 即将出现看跌交叉，而布林带明确证实上升趋势已经结束。总体而言，该指引较弱，因为预计收入增长将放缓，且营业收入增长也将大幅减弱。如上所述，目前，收入增长略低于平均水平，并处于令人担忧的下行趋势。此外，指引显示，2025 年第一季度的增长将进一步放缓，并将处于多年来的低点。尽管如此，与同行相比，亚马逊的估值可能被高估。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>“</strong><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>目前的估值适中。</strong>”</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdLpnkcwO2SlbEuMicbUvKD0H3ezZfxhQQbcicAxKRRnhBrPvBoTsXE6oOzecd2CerGPUkb22ypbKE6Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5W9micvoGodUycJF7R8ADrdm2nGwQyBYjPL0qpEuo2R7ibr7Vdj11tBgA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>作者 | Bay Area Ideas</strong></p><p><strong>编译 | 华尔街大事件</strong></p><p><strong>自11月份以来，亚马逊公司 (NASDAQ: AMZN )已上涨近 10%。就基本面而言，最近的收益显示出弹性，<span>每股收益</span>强劲，但收入增长略低于预期。</strong>在他们的指引中，他们表明，<strong>预计收入增长将进一步放缓，预计 2025 年第一季度的<span>营业收入</span>增长也将大幅下降。</strong>在分析了相对于增长和行业的 P/S 和 P/E 比率后，分析师得出结论，该股目前被中度高估。由于技术面转为净看跌，且股价目前有点高估。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5SeUUE7860JooH1I6c4LcrVH4SibeyqoicKvF0xdvONuL1bSURzo8OACg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>亚马逊股价最近突破了自 10 月底开始的上涨趋势。这条<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>在多个场合都提供了非常强劲的支撑，因此这次<span>跌破</span>是一个重大事件。该股尚未形成明显的下跌趋势，因此这很可能意味着涨幅放缓或出现一些横向漂移。然而，展望未来，前一条上涨趋势线可能成为阻力。</p><p><strong>亚马逊有两个重要的近期<span>支撑位</span>。第一个支撑位在 220 左右，是 12 月中下旬的关键支撑位，应该是该股最近的支撑位。另一个支撑位在 210 左右，是 11 月的主要<span>阻力位</span>，但在 1 月是支撑位。</strong></p><p><strong>除了前一条上升趋势线外，目前股价上方还有另外两个阻力位。</strong>较近的一个阻力位在 230 点下方，是 12 月和几天前的阻力位，也是 1 月底的支撑位。另一个阻力位是成交量较大的重大下行缺口。股价可能难以突破该区域。</p><p>总体而言，这张图表对亚马逊来说是中性的。该股不再处于上升趋势，但这可能只是意味着涨幅可能已经下降。支撑和阻力也相当平衡，因为前一个上升趋势线的相关性将随着它继续向上倾斜而降低。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5463H9mJpjrvb5r58GGPOhmIpxibnMr8xhrTgE7p7uhd36EjyEXj9iceQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>过去六个月中，50 日均线一直位于 200 日均线之上，表明该股长期看涨势头持续。<span>均线</span>之间的差距已大幅扩大，表明势头强劲。尽管股价跌破上升趋势线，但仍高于两条均线，目前似乎在 50 日均线处获得一些支撑。</p><p>目前，9 日 EMA 和 21 日 EMA 似乎处于同一水平，但鉴于 9 日 EMA 的负向轨迹非常明显，看跌交叉可能即将出现，反映出该股近期的疲软。该股目前的交易价格低于两条 EMA，但仍然相对接近，因此在看跌交叉后，EMA 之间的差距可能不会迅速扩大。</p><p><strong>该股最近跌破布林带中线，这是另一个疲软信号。</strong>这也证实了该股的上涨趋势可能已经结束。目前，布林带正处于波动性收缩阶段，因此即使该股从这里开始横向交易，也可能出现超卖。因此，近期可能会出现超卖反弹。</p><p>虽然 SMA 显示该股仍存在长期看涨势头，但亚马逊的短期走势可能令人担忧，因为 EMA 即将出现看跌交叉，而布林带明确证实上升趋势已经结束。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf59uiaeHzicDMTFog0v8t2soeFedCgticZT8IFh3PYibarEzA6zXlxbJl1rA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>本月初，MACD 跌破信号线，发出看跌信号。线与线之间的差距也显著扩大，如看跌的直方图所示。这表明该股近期的看跌势头正在加速。本月初，MACD 在历史高点期间也出现了负向背离，因为 MACD 未能达到 12 月高点的最佳水平。</p><p>RSI 近期跌破 50 水平，目前读数为 47.46。这表明空头现在略微控制了该股。与 MACD 一样，RSI 也显示出历史高点的看跌背离，因为它也未能创下比 12 月高点更高的峰值。</p><p>从 1 月底到 2 月初，随机指标出现大量交叉，但最近终于出现了明显的看跌交叉，%K 跌破 %D，正好位于超买的 80 区域。交叉后，两条线均跌破 50 水平，表明空头占据主导地位。事实上，%K 线已跌至 20 区域，表明目前存在稳固的看跌控制。</p><p><strong>这些指标对亚马逊股票来说都是压倒性的看跌。</strong>MACD 显示近期看跌势头加速，RSI 跌破 50，随机指标 %K 显示该股极度疲软。从长期来看，MACD 和 RSI 均显示本月早些时候创下历史新高的看跌背离，因此即使是长期投资者也应对该股保持谨慎。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5u6ibQeKGPGSKP6qfFCgicXmLEpdDIPXesNLUIZSloHROeCicd0ekZhTicw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>亚马逊本月初发布了2024 年第四季度的收益，整体业绩可观。</strong>他们报告称，营收为 1878 亿美元，同比增长 10%，摊薄后 GAAP 每股收益为 1.86 美元，高于去年同期的 1.00 美元。对于至关重要的 AWS 部门，营收同比增长 19% 至 288 亿美元，反映出业绩具有韧性但不出色。如上图所示，目前的收入增长大约在过去三年的平均水平，甚至可能略低于平均水平。自 2024 年初以来，收入增长似乎确实处于下降趋势，因此这可能有点令人担忧。就每股收益而言，第四季度的业绩是过去三年中最好的，并且延续了这一数字的上升趋势。与普遍预期相比，他们的表现也非常强劲，收入超出预期 5.6326 亿美元，每股收益超出预期 0.38 美元。</p><p>亚马逊在其收益报告中提供了 2025 年第一季度的指引。他们表示，<strong>预计第一季度的收入将在 1510 亿美元至 1555 亿美元之间，这反映了 5% 至 9% 的同比增长。</strong>因此，该指引意味着收入增长预计将进一步减速，并表明该数字的下降趋势将继续。然而，他们确实表示，该指引中包含了异常大的不利外汇影响，因此减速在一定程度上不受公司的控制。亚马逊还提供了第一季度 140 亿美元至 180 亿美元之间的营业收入指引，由于 2024 年第一季度营业收入为 153 亿美元，该指引意味着增长率在 -8.5% 至 17.6% 之间。第四季度营业收入为 212 亿美元，同比增长 60.6%，因此该指引也显示该数字的增长大幅减弱。总体而言，该指引较弱，因为预计收入增长将放缓，且营业收入增长也将大幅减弱。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL1dCEleVlqliaiafMCJJ7gf5oR7HTjGqIleqjNXx7ibyD0ufcFvq3FrUlzW6P2LRKFlJlcTzUrsjIdg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>目前的市销率远高于过去三年的平均水平</strong>，因为其 3.843 的读数较 2024 年初的 3.0 以下水平有大幅增长。我认为这一比率表明亚马逊股票被严重高估，因为它似乎与收入增长高度脱节。如上所述，目前，收入增长略低于平均水平，并处于令人担忧的下行趋势。此外，指引显示，2025 年第一季度的增长将进一步放缓，并将处于多年来的低点。这些不是你会与市销率大幅扩张联系起来的结果。因此，这个比率表明相对于基本面而言被严重高估。目前非必需消费品行业的平均市销率为0.99，虽然由于他们的 AWS 业务可能存在一些可比性问题，但该股仍比同行有大幅溢价，这也可能表明估值过高。</p><p>市盈率目前为 41.35，与市销率不同，截至目前，它实际上远低于平均水平。该比率始于 2024 年，远高于 50 的水平，因此自那时以来出现了显着的倍数收缩。这个比率显示了亚马逊股票更公平的估值。如上所述，每股收益目前处于强劲上升趋势，第四季度同比增长率高达 86%。在指引中，他们没有提供第一季度的每股收益预测，但从营业收入指引来看，可以推断，每股收益增长在第一季度也可能大幅放缓。即使是这样，我仍然预计每股收益增长总体上将处于弹性水平。因此，市盈率远低于平均水平可能表明亚马逊的每股收益增长存在一定程度的低估。该行业的平均市盈率目前为 19.97，由于亚马逊在云计算领域的主导地位值得大幅溢价，因此该数字可能再次存在一些可比性问题。尽管如此，与同行相比，亚马逊的估值可能被高估。</p><p><strong>亚马逊目前的估值适中。</strong>市销率与收入增长明显脱节，因为该比率有所扩大，但增长正在放缓，而且市盈率也远高于该行业。就市盈率而言，该比率表明，与历史每股收益数据相比，该股票实际上相当便宜，但该比率仍远高于其行业，因此，该比率总体上显示出公平估值。总的来说，这些比率反映了亚马逊股票的适度高估。</p><p>在上面的分析中，技术面已对亚马逊股票产生净看跌影响。虽然图表相对中性且 SMA 仍然强劲，但大多数迹象表明该股未来可能走弱。就基本面而言，收益具有弹性但总体上并不令人鼓舞，每股收益强劲，但收入增长处于可能令人担忧的下行趋势中。指引总体上看跌，因为对收入和营业收入的预测较弱。如上所述，P/S 和 P/E 倍数一起显示股票被适度高估。因此，由于技术和基本面相对不具吸引力，分析师将亚马逊的评级下调至卖出。</p><p>【如需和我们交流可后台回复“进群”加社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdINMNSa4Col1mWNkYY9WyMrrJswRSEF8cpHQicJo4tfSTFa6Z3rAnT2PZrthVUrfLj18tAYRrVu6Wg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&amp;from=appmsg\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>增长放缓，投资者过于乐观，亚马逊隐忧频现！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n增长放缓，投资者过于乐观，亚马逊隐忧频现！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-19 19:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219195621a24bd3d6&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“亚马逊目前的估值适中。”作者 | Bay Area Ideas编译 | 华尔街大事件自11月份以来，亚马逊公司 (NASDAQ: AMZN )已上涨近 10%。就基本面而言，最近的收益显示出弹性，每股收益强劲，但收入增长略低于预期。在他们的指引中，他们表明，预计收入增长将进一步放缓，预计 2025 年第一季度的营业收入增长也将大幅下降。在分析了相对于增长和行业的 P/S 和 P/E 比率后，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219195621a24bd3d6&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2452424414.USD":"BGF ESG MULTI-ASSET \"A10\" (USDHDG) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A 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SGD-H","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250219195621a24bd3d6&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2512510574","content_text":"“亚马逊目前的估值适中。”作者 | Bay Area Ideas编译 | 华尔街大事件自11月份以来，亚马逊公司 (NASDAQ: AMZN )已上涨近 10%。就基本面而言，最近的收益显示出弹性，每股收益强劲，但收入增长略低于预期。在他们的指引中，他们表明，预计收入增长将进一步放缓，预计 2025 年第一季度的营业收入增长也将大幅下降。在分析了相对于增长和行业的 P/S 和 P/E 比率后，分析师得出结论，该股目前被中度高估。由于技术面转为净看跌，且股价目前有点高估。亚马逊股价最近突破了自 10 月底开始的上涨趋势。这条趋势线在多个场合都提供了非常强劲的支撑，因此这次跌破是一个重大事件。该股尚未形成明显的下跌趋势，因此这很可能意味着涨幅放缓或出现一些横向漂移。然而，展望未来，前一条上涨趋势线可能成为阻力。亚马逊有两个重要的近期支撑位。第一个支撑位在 220 左右，是 12 月中下旬的关键支撑位，应该是该股最近的支撑位。另一个支撑位在 210 左右，是 11 月的主要阻力位，但在 1 月是支撑位。除了前一条上升趋势线外，目前股价上方还有另外两个阻力位。较近的一个阻力位在 230 点下方，是 12 月和几天前的阻力位，也是 1 月底的支撑位。另一个阻力位是成交量较大的重大下行缺口。股价可能难以突破该区域。总体而言，这张图表对亚马逊来说是中性的。该股不再处于上升趋势，但这可能只是意味着涨幅可能已经下降。支撑和阻力也相当平衡，因为前一个上升趋势线的相关性将随着它继续向上倾斜而降低。过去六个月中，50 日均线一直位于 200 日均线之上，表明该股长期看涨势头持续。均线之间的差距已大幅扩大，表明势头强劲。尽管股价跌破上升趋势线，但仍高于两条均线，目前似乎在 50 日均线处获得一些支撑。目前，9 日 EMA 和 21 日 EMA 似乎处于同一水平，但鉴于 9 日 EMA 的负向轨迹非常明显，看跌交叉可能即将出现，反映出该股近期的疲软。该股目前的交易价格低于两条 EMA，但仍然相对接近，因此在看跌交叉后，EMA 之间的差距可能不会迅速扩大。该股最近跌破布林带中线，这是另一个疲软信号。这也证实了该股的上涨趋势可能已经结束。目前，布林带正处于波动性收缩阶段，因此即使该股从这里开始横向交易，也可能出现超卖。因此，近期可能会出现超卖反弹。虽然 SMA 显示该股仍存在长期看涨势头，但亚马逊的短期走势可能令人担忧，因为 EMA 即将出现看跌交叉，而布林带明确证实上升趋势已经结束。本月初，MACD 跌破信号线，发出看跌信号。线与线之间的差距也显著扩大，如看跌的直方图所示。这表明该股近期的看跌势头正在加速。本月初，MACD 在历史高点期间也出现了负向背离，因为 MACD 未能达到 12 月高点的最佳水平。RSI 近期跌破 50 水平，目前读数为 47.46。这表明空头现在略微控制了该股。与 MACD 一样，RSI 也显示出历史高点的看跌背离，因为它也未能创下比 12 月高点更高的峰值。从 1 月底到 2 月初，随机指标出现大量交叉，但最近终于出现了明显的看跌交叉，%K 跌破 %D，正好位于超买的 80 区域。交叉后，两条线均跌破 50 水平，表明空头占据主导地位。事实上，%K 线已跌至 20 区域，表明目前存在稳固的看跌控制。这些指标对亚马逊股票来说都是压倒性的看跌。MACD 显示近期看跌势头加速，RSI 跌破 50，随机指标 %K 显示该股极度疲软。从长期来看，MACD 和 RSI 均显示本月早些时候创下历史新高的看跌背离，因此即使是长期投资者也应对该股保持谨慎。亚马逊本月初发布了2024 年第四季度的收益，整体业绩可观。他们报告称，营收为 1878 亿美元，同比增长 10%，摊薄后 GAAP 每股收益为 1.86 美元，高于去年同期的 1.00 美元。对于至关重要的 AWS 部门，营收同比增长 19% 至 288 亿美元，反映出业绩具有韧性但不出色。如上图所示，目前的收入增长大约在过去三年的平均水平，甚至可能略低于平均水平。自 2024 年初以来，收入增长似乎确实处于下降趋势，因此这可能有点令人担忧。就每股收益而言，第四季度的业绩是过去三年中最好的，并且延续了这一数字的上升趋势。与普遍预期相比，他们的表现也非常强劲，收入超出预期 5.6326 亿美元，每股收益超出预期 0.38 美元。亚马逊在其收益报告中提供了 2025 年第一季度的指引。他们表示，预计第一季度的收入将在 1510 亿美元至 1555 亿美元之间，这反映了 5% 至 9% 的同比增长。因此，该指引意味着收入增长预计将进一步减速，并表明该数字的下降趋势将继续。然而，他们确实表示，该指引中包含了异常大的不利外汇影响，因此减速在一定程度上不受公司的控制。亚马逊还提供了第一季度 140 亿美元至 180 亿美元之间的营业收入指引，由于 2024 年第一季度营业收入为 153 亿美元，该指引意味着增长率在 -8.5% 至 17.6% 之间。第四季度营业收入为 212 亿美元，同比增长 60.6%，因此该指引也显示该数字的增长大幅减弱。总体而言，该指引较弱，因为预计收入增长将放缓，且营业收入增长也将大幅减弱。目前的市销率远高于过去三年的平均水平，因为其 3.843 的读数较 2024 年初的 3.0 以下水平有大幅增长。我认为这一比率表明亚马逊股票被严重高估，因为它似乎与收入增长高度脱节。如上所述，目前，收入增长略低于平均水平，并处于令人担忧的下行趋势。此外，指引显示，2025 年第一季度的增长将进一步放缓，并将处于多年来的低点。这些不是你会与市销率大幅扩张联系起来的结果。因此，这个比率表明相对于基本面而言被严重高估。目前非必需消费品行业的平均市销率为0.99，虽然由于他们的 AWS 业务可能存在一些可比性问题，但该股仍比同行有大幅溢价，这也可能表明估值过高。市盈率目前为 41.35，与市销率不同，截至目前，它实际上远低于平均水平。该比率始于 2024 年，远高于 50 的水平，因此自那时以来出现了显着的倍数收缩。这个比率显示了亚马逊股票更公平的估值。如上所述，每股收益目前处于强劲上升趋势，第四季度同比增长率高达 86%。在指引中，他们没有提供第一季度的每股收益预测，但从营业收入指引来看，可以推断，每股收益增长在第一季度也可能大幅放缓。即使是这样，我仍然预计每股收益增长总体上将处于弹性水平。因此，市盈率远低于平均水平可能表明亚马逊的每股收益增长存在一定程度的低估。该行业的平均市盈率目前为 19.97，由于亚马逊在云计算领域的主导地位值得大幅溢价，因此该数字可能再次存在一些可比性问题。尽管如此，与同行相比，亚马逊的估值可能被高估。亚马逊目前的估值适中。市销率与收入增长明显脱节，因为该比率有所扩大，但增长正在放缓，而且市盈率也远高于该行业。就市盈率而言，该比率表明，与历史每股收益数据相比，该股票实际上相当便宜，但该比率仍远高于其行业，因此，该比率总体上显示出公平估值。总的来说，这些比率反映了亚马逊股票的适度高估。在上面的分析中，技术面已对亚马逊股票产生净看跌影响。虽然图表相对中性且 SMA 仍然强劲，但大多数迹象表明该股未来可能走弱。就基本面而言，收益具有弹性但总体上并不令人鼓舞，每股收益强劲，但收入增长处于可能令人担忧的下行趋势中。指引总体上看跌，因为对收入和营业收入的预测较弱。如上所述，P/S 和 P/E 倍数一起显示股票被适度高估。因此，由于技术和基本面相对不具吸引力，分析师将亚马逊的评级下调至卖出。【如需和我们交流可后台回复“进群”加社群】","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USAW.SI":0.6,"AMZN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":401838094201256,"gmtCreate":1739112539090,"gmtModify":1739112540957,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"干不过就禁，权力真是个好东西。","listText":"干不过就禁，权力真是个好东西。","text":"干不过就禁，权力真是个好东西。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/401838094201256","repostId":"2510043293","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2510043293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1739100960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2510043293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-09 19:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"重磅！国资委权威解答：央企资产转让不应在阿里和京东交易","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2510043293","media":"市场资讯","summary":"地方国有企业国有资产交易应当在所属省级国资监管机构公布的产权交易机构中进行。即央企国有资产交易只能在上述两份文件的产权交易机构中进行，目前不能在阿里资产和京东资产交易平台上进行。案例二：2016年，宁波市海曙区国有资产管理中心近日在阿里巴巴的资产交易平台“闲鱼”上公开挂牌转让一批商业用房。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div><img cms-height=\"346.797\" cms-width=\"578\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250209/224/w640h384/20250209/cc3a-73d017d72327c74dc0f755631ba35e94.png\"/><span></span></div><div><img cms-height=\"404.578\" cms-width=\"626\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250209/178/w1080h698/20250209/daa5-d77d1e87a4e36f5825effddadddb923e.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\">2025年1月国务院国资委网站政务咨询栏目部分网友提出的咨询，我们初步做出了认真的回应，现选择五条关注度高、点击量高的问题，再次推荐分享。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">1.关于32号令以非公开协议方式进行股权转让问题的咨询</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">要点：同一国家出资企业及其各级控股企业之间的股权转让造成标的公司股权比例变动时，如经过同一国家出资企业审批，也可以非公开协议转让方式进行股权转让。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">2.关于国有私募证券基金管理人所管理基金产品开展衍生品投资问题的咨询</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">要点：国有私募证券基金管理人开展代客资产管理、期货经纪、风险管理服务试点等业务，以及除货币类和商品类的其他衍生业务，都不适用于《关于切实加强金融衍生业务管理有关事项的通知》（国资发财评规[2020]8号文），除以上情况外都要符合该文件的规定。也就是说，国有私募证券基金管理人开展涉及非货币和商品类的衍生业务和金融服务性业务都不适用该文要求，除此之外都要严格按该文要求开展业务</font>。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">3.关于参股企业股权无偿划转审计评估委托人问题的咨询</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">要点：参股企业股权无偿划转工作需要聘请审计中介机构出具审计报告和清产核资报告时，审计中介机构可由划转双方和被划转企业共同协商确定。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">4.关于国有资产转让的产权交易机构问题的咨询</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">要点：中央企业国有资产交易应当在《关于调整从事的通知》(国资厅产权〔2020〕333号)、《关于的通知》(国资厅产权[2021〕137号)确定的产权交易机构中进行。地方国有企业国有资产交易应当在所属省级国资监管机构公布的产权交易机构中进行。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold underline color0\">即央企国有资产交易只能在上述两份文件的产权交易机构中进行，目前不能在阿里资产和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>资产交易平台上进行。但，只要在省级国资监管机构公布的产权交易机构名单内，地方企业国有资产可以在阿里资产和京东资产交易平台上交易。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold underline color0\">案例一：</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold underline color0\"></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold underline color0\">2024年8 月 28 日，阿里资产平台与宣城市首个资产处置合作项目——宣城市消防救援支队报废车辆项目在阿里资产平台完成交易。该标的评估价为 1.39 万元，起始价1.39 万元，参拍需缴纳保证金为1000元，每次增价幅度为100元，为经过 395 轮激烈竞价，最终由济南祥润报废机动车回收有限公司以 5.63 万元竞得，溢价率达 305%。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold underline color0\">案例二：</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold underline color0\">2016年，宁波市海曙区国有资产管理中心近日在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>的资产交易平台“闲鱼”上公开挂牌转让一批商业用房。类似拍卖已经进行了两轮，分别于2016年月31日和7月5日结束，挂牌标的分别为10套和20套商业用房。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">5.关于《企业国有资产交易监督管理办法》问题的咨询</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color0\">要点：国有企业从地方资产管理公司AMC购买债权（不良资产）再转让给非国有企业的行为不属于《企业国有资产交易监督管理办法》(国务院国资委 财政部令第32号)的规范范围，应适用包括但不限于《民法典》、最高人民法院《关于审理涉及金融不良债权转让案件工作座谈会纪要》、金融监管总局发布的《金融资产管理公司不良资产业务管理办法》和《关于印发金融资产管理公司不良资产业务管理办法的通知》等其他法律政策文件。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">正式回复如下：</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">1.关于32号令以非公开协议方式进行股权转让问题的咨询</p><div><img cms-height=\"393.375\" cms-width=\"626\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250209/760/w958h602/20250209/a00a-c78aa001030029da2bc9668b540c3b2b.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">2.关于国有私募证券基金管理人所管理基金产品开展衍生品投资问题的咨询</p><div><img cms-height=\"483.484\" cms-width=\"626\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250209/105/w962h743/20250209/d233-382cd8472dd972ae7a807b58c09bdec0.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">3.关于参股企业股权无偿划转审计评估委托人问题的咨询</p><div><img cms-height=\"354.641\" cms-width=\"626\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250209/707/w962h545/20250209/255f-fecb95bff95a61d73d25fed788602756.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">4.关于国有资产转让的产权交易机构问题的咨询</p><div><img cms-height=\"437.203\" cms-width=\"626\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250209/788/w935h653/20250209/3910-c217793cdf2fa13a71bcc2608f194bb4.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">5.关于《企业国有资产交易监督管理办法》问题的咨询</p><div><img cms-height=\"446.312\" cms-width=\"626\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250209/53/w965h688/20250209/178f-6c18cb2d10fc14c501e3740278509918.png\"/><span></span></div><div><img cms-height=\"276.484\" cms-width=\"626\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20250209/757/w1080h477/20250209/e7e8-2e888ed238f0b348e8a4e3b782c54390.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Center\">关于调整从事中央企业国有资产交易业务产权交易机构的通知</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Center\">国资厅产权〔2020〕333号</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">各中央企业：</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">为充分发挥市场配置资源作用，促进产权市场更好服务国有企业改革发展和结构调整，根据《企业国有资产交易监督管理办法》（国资委 财政部令第32号）等有关规定，我委定期对从事中央企业国有资产交易业务的产权交易机构进行调整。经组织相关部门和中央企业进行评审，现将新确定的中央企业资产交易业务产权交易机构名单通知如下：</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">一、从事中央企业权益类业务（产权转让、企业增资）机构名单</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1.</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">北京产权交易所</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">有限公司</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">2.上海联合产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">3.广东联合产权交易中心有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">4.山东产权交易中心有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">5.重庆联合产权交易所集团股份有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">二、从事中央企业实物资产转让业务机构名单</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">1.北京产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2.天津</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">产权交易中心</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">3.河北产权市场有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">4.山西省产权交易市场有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">5.内蒙古产权交易中心有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">6.沈阳联合产权交易所有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">7.吉林长春产权交易中心（集团）有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">8.黑龙江联合产权交易所有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">9.上海联合产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">10.江苏省产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">11.浙江产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">12.安徽省产权交易中心有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">13.福建省产权交易中心</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">14.江西省产权交易所</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">15.山东产权交易中心有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">16.河南中原产权交易有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">17.武汉光谷联合产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">18.湖南省联合产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">19.广东联合产权交易中心有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">20.北部湾产权交易所集团股份有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">21.海南产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">22.重庆联合产权交易所集团股份有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">23.西南联合产权交易所有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">24.贵州阳光产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">25.云南产权交易所有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">26.西藏产权交易中心有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">27.西部产权交易所有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">28.甘肃省产权交易所股份有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">29.青海省</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">产权交易市场</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">30.宁夏科技资源与产权交易所（有限公司）</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">31.新疆产权交易所有限责任公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">32.青岛产权交易所</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">33.宁波产权交易中心有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">34.厦门产权交易中心有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">35.大连产权交易所（有限责任公司）</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">36.深圳联合产权交易所股份有限公司</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">三、其他事项</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">自2021年1月1日起，请各中央企业分别选择上述机构开展权益类和实物资产类交易业务。已在产权交易机构进行预挂牌、正式挂牌的项目，可继续在原交易机构进行。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">请各中央企业及时将资产交易中遇到的问题向国资委产权管理局反映</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">联系人及电话：国资委产权管理局 张良、刘颖（010）63193538、63193273</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\">国资委办公厅</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\">2020年12月27日</p><p>（转自：不良资产行业观研）</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重磅！国资委权威解答：央企资产转让不应在阿里和京东交易\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-09 19:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-02-09/doc-ineiwvfv1039918.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年1月国务院国资委网站政务咨询栏目部分网友提出的咨询，我们初步做出了认真的回应，现选择五条关注度高、点击量高的问题，再次推荐分享。1.关于32号令以非公开协议方式进行股权转让问题的咨询要点：同一国家出资企业及其各级控股企业之间的股权转让造成标的公司股权比例变动时，如经过同一国家出资企业审批，也可以非公开协议转让方式进行股权转让。2.关于国有私募证券基金管理人所管理基金产品开展衍生品投资问题...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-02-09/doc-ineiwvfv1039918.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89618":"京东集团-SWR","BK4558":"双十一","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4502":"阿里概念","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC","LU0456846285.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Greater China A (acc) SGD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","SG9999002562.SGD":"LionGlobal Asia Pacific SGD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0588545730.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"ADM\" (USD) INC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","SG9999002828.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Dragon Peacock A SGD","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0431992006.USD":"摩根大通新兴市场机会A（acc）","09618":"京东集团-SW","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK4607":"DeepSeek概念股","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BGV7N243.SGD":"FSSA Global Emerging Markets Focus I Acc SGD","BK1575":"同股不同权","JD":"京东","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","BK1591":"就地过年概念","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU0315179316.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN DYNAMIC \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-02-09/doc-ineiwvfv1039918.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2510043293","content_text":"2025年1月国务院国资委网站政务咨询栏目部分网友提出的咨询，我们初步做出了认真的回应，现选择五条关注度高、点击量高的问题，再次推荐分享。1.关于32号令以非公开协议方式进行股权转让问题的咨询要点：同一国家出资企业及其各级控股企业之间的股权转让造成标的公司股权比例变动时，如经过同一国家出资企业审批，也可以非公开协议转让方式进行股权转让。2.关于国有私募证券基金管理人所管理基金产品开展衍生品投资问题的咨询要点：国有私募证券基金管理人开展代客资产管理、期货经纪、风险管理服务试点等业务，以及除货币类和商品类的其他衍生业务，都不适用于《关于切实加强金融衍生业务管理有关事项的通知》（国资发财评规[2020]8号文），除以上情况外都要符合该文件的规定。也就是说，国有私募证券基金管理人开展涉及非货币和商品类的衍生业务和金融服务性业务都不适用该文要求，除此之外都要严格按该文要求开展业务。3.关于参股企业股权无偿划转审计评估委托人问题的咨询要点：参股企业股权无偿划转工作需要聘请审计中介机构出具审计报告和清产核资报告时，审计中介机构可由划转双方和被划转企业共同协商确定。4.关于国有资产转让的产权交易机构问题的咨询要点：中央企业国有资产交易应当在《关于调整从事的通知》(国资厅产权〔2020〕333号)、《关于的通知》(国资厅产权[2021〕137号)确定的产权交易机构中进行。地方国有企业国有资产交易应当在所属省级国资监管机构公布的产权交易机构中进行。即央企国有资产交易只能在上述两份文件的产权交易机构中进行，目前不能在阿里资产和京东资产交易平台上进行。但，只要在省级国资监管机构公布的产权交易机构名单内，地方企业国有资产可以在阿里资产和京东资产交易平台上交易。案例一：2024年8 月 28 日，阿里资产平台与宣城市首个资产处置合作项目——宣城市消防救援支队报废车辆项目在阿里资产平台完成交易。该标的评估价为 1.39 万元，起始价1.39 万元，参拍需缴纳保证金为1000元，每次增价幅度为100元，为经过 395 轮激烈竞价，最终由济南祥润报废机动车回收有限公司以 5.63 万元竞得，溢价率达 305%。案例二：2016年，宁波市海曙区国有资产管理中心近日在阿里巴巴的资产交易平台“闲鱼”上公开挂牌转让一批商业用房。类似拍卖已经进行了两轮，分别于2016年月31日和7月5日结束，挂牌标的分别为10套和20套商业用房。5.关于《企业国有资产交易监督管理办法》问题的咨询要点：国有企业从地方资产管理公司AMC购买债权（不良资产）再转让给非国有企业的行为不属于《企业国有资产交易监督管理办法》(国务院国资委 财政部令第32号)的规范范围，应适用包括但不限于《民法典》、最高人民法院《关于审理涉及金融不良债权转让案件工作座谈会纪要》、金融监管总局发布的《金融资产管理公司不良资产业务管理办法》和《关于印发金融资产管理公司不良资产业务管理办法的通知》等其他法律政策文件。正式回复如下：1.关于32号令以非公开协议方式进行股权转让问题的咨询2.关于国有私募证券基金管理人所管理基金产品开展衍生品投资问题的咨询3.关于参股企业股权无偿划转审计评估委托人问题的咨询4.关于国有资产转让的产权交易机构问题的咨询5.关于《企业国有资产交易监督管理办法》问题的咨询关于调整从事中央企业国有资产交易业务产权交易机构的通知国资厅产权〔2020〕333号各中央企业：为充分发挥市场配置资源作用，促进产权市场更好服务国有企业改革发展和结构调整，根据《企业国有资产交易监督管理办法》（国资委 财政部令第32号）等有关规定，我委定期对从事中央企业国有资产交易业务的产权交易机构进行调整。经组织相关部门和中央企业进行评审，现将新确定的中央企业资产交易业务产权交易机构名单通知如下：一、从事中央企业权益类业务（产权转让、企业增资）机构名单1.北京产权交易所有限公司2.上海联合产权交易所有限公司3.广东联合产权交易中心有限公司4.山东产权交易中心有限公司5.重庆联合产权交易所集团股份有限公司二、从事中央企业实物资产转让业务机构名单1.北京产权交易所有限公司2.天津产权交易中心3.河北产权市场有限公司4.山西省产权交易市场有限责任公司5.内蒙古产权交易中心有限责任公司6.沈阳联合产权交易所有限责任公司7.吉林长春产权交易中心（集团）有限公司8.黑龙江联合产权交易所有限责任公司9.上海联合产权交易所有限公司10.江苏省产权交易所有限公司11.浙江产权交易所有限公司12.安徽省产权交易中心有限责任公司13.福建省产权交易中心14.江西省产权交易所15.山东产权交易中心有限公司16.河南中原产权交易有限公司17.武汉光谷联合产权交易所有限公司18.湖南省联合产权交易所有限公司19.广东联合产权交易中心有限公司20.北部湾产权交易所集团股份有限公司21.海南产权交易所有限公司22.重庆联合产权交易所集团股份有限公司23.西南联合产权交易所有限责任公司24.贵州阳光产权交易所有限公司25.云南产权交易所有限公司26.西藏产权交易中心有限责任公司27.西部产权交易所有限责任公司28.甘肃省产权交易所股份有限公司29.青海省产权交易市场30.宁夏科技资源与产权交易所（有限公司）31.新疆产权交易所有限责任公司32.青岛产权交易所33.宁波产权交易中心有限公司34.厦门产权交易中心有限公司35.大连产权交易所（有限责任公司）36.深圳联合产权交易所股份有限公司三、其他事项自2021年1月1日起，请各中央企业分别选择上述机构开展权益类和实物资产类交易业务。已在产权交易机构进行预挂牌、正式挂牌的项目，可继续在原交易机构进行。请各中央企业及时将资产交易中遇到的问题向国资委产权管理局反映联系人及电话：国资委产权管理局 张良、刘颖（010）63193538、63193273国资委办公厅2020年12月27日（转自：不良资产行业观研）\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"JD":1,"BABA":1,"09988":0.6,"09618":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385424033103976,"gmtCreate":1735142539470,"gmtModify":1735142541814,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"听了十几年了，泡沫来了也不重要了","listText":"听了十几年了，泡沫来了也不重要了","text":"听了十几年了，泡沫来了也不重要了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385424033103976","repostId":"2494801115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2494801115","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1735124813,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2494801115?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-25 19:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股科技泡沫正在变得可怕，当心对冲基金抛售！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2494801115","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师表示，在2000年的互联网泡沫破裂中，并没有明显的触发因素导致崩盘，“除了最终有少数人开始卖出。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>分析师表示，在2000年的互联网泡沫破裂中，并没有明显的触发因素导致崩盘，“除了最终有少数人开始卖出。”</p></blockquote><p>2024年带给我们的一个教训是，<strong>科技股仍然是华尔街的驱动力，而华尔街在2025年似乎也不愿意对它们产生怀疑。</strong></p><p>True Contrarian博客和通讯的首席执行官Steven Jon Kaplan在今年早些时候就提出了对科技股的反向押注，尽管这一预测尚未实现，但他坚持自己的看法，<strong>并且在他看来，现在的泡沫更大。</strong>他的成功记录包括建议在2020年的疫情抛售期间买入以及准确预测了近几年的一些科技股抛售。</p><p>四月份时，Kaplan预测追踪纳斯达克100指数的交易所交易基金Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 （QQQ）将在一年内跌至300点，并在三年内跌破100点。该指数已从当时的427点升至522点。</p><p>Kaplan说，“我仍然认为2025年的某个时间，我们将看到QQQ低于300点”，这意味着可能从现在水平下跌50%<strong>，他今年一直在周期性地做空QQQ。</strong></p><p>他对公司利润预期过高以及越来越多的证据表明大型科技公司在人工智能上的支出并未转化为丰厚利润表示担忧。</p><p>Kaplan指出，<strong>强大的对冲基金可能会开始卖出</strong>，这些对冲基金占每日科技股成交量的很大比例。他提到，<strong>在2000年的互联网泡沫破裂中，并没有明显的触发因素导致崩盘，“除了最终有少数人开始卖出。”</strong></p><p>目前，大多数对冲基金遵循“趋势算法”，这意味着如果像QQQ这样的指数最终下跌20%，那么那些价值数万亿美元的资金将同时卖出，他说。如果QQQ跌至360点，第一波卖出潮可能会到来——商品期货交易委员会的数据是他观察对冲基金活动的一个地方。</p><p>Kaplan还注意到了今年公司内部人士的卖出行为，例如Nvidia、Microsoft、Apple、Amazon、Costco和Walmart等公司。他注意到内部人士卖出在7月达到了历史最高纪录，8月有所缓解，但在11月和12月再次超过历史记录。</p><p>他说：“这是一个非常庞大的数量，而且这种趋势已经从大型科技股扩展到许多其他成分股，很多其他美国大公司也是如此，”</p><p>那么Kaplan现在把钱投在哪里呢？他认为是被视作“无聊的投资”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（TLT），该ETF价格从2020年3月的180美元下降到了当前的87美元。他预计只有当投资者开始看到股市损失时，才会出现大规模转向TLT的情况。</p><p>他还通过Aberdeen Physical Palladium Shares ETF（PALL）投资钯金，因为大型对冲基金一直在做空这种金属。“人们仍然需要诸如燃料电池和汽车之类的基本物品，这些都需要钯金，这使得它成为了一个真正被遗忘的好买卖，”他说。</p><p>根据他的分析，<strong>当前的熊市可能已经开始。</strong>他将当前的牛市追溯到2009年3月，之前的牛市分别从1990年10月持续到2000年3月，以及从1921年8月持续到1929年9月。随后的熊市分别为31个月和34个月，<strong>因此他估计下一个熊市将在2027年下半年触底，开启另一轮强劲的牛市。</strong></p><p>在这之前可能出现反弹——可能是明年夏天的一次大幅反弹，然后又会下跌。“它将基本上通过反复横跳来混淆大量投资者，就像2000年至2002年间所做的那样，”他说。</p><p>在市场崩溃之后，大型科技股和知名股票可能会由于投资者的负面记忆而表现突出。相反，<strong>他建议关注2002年至2007年的赢家：“新兴市场、黄金矿业股、大宗商品生产商，以及小型和中型股，而不是大型股。”</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股科技泡沫正在变得可怕，当心对冲基金抛售！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股科技泡沫正在变得可怕，当心对冲基金抛售！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-25 19:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=157052&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>分析师表示，在2000年的互联网泡沫破裂中，并没有明显的触发因素导致崩盘，“除了最终有少数人开始卖出。”2024年带给我们的一个教训是，科技股仍然是华尔街的驱动力，而华尔街在2025年似乎也不愿意对它们产生怀疑。True Contrarian博客和通讯的首席执行官Steven Jon Kaplan在今年早些时候就提出了对科技股的反向押注，尽管这一预测尚未实现，但他坚持自己的看法，并且在他看来，现在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=157052&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa9d1dcb8bc21d9d1210d1fab98c8ec","relate_stocks":{"PALL":"abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4593":"纳斯达克ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","03086":"华夏纳指","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=157052&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2494801115","content_text":"分析师表示，在2000年的互联网泡沫破裂中，并没有明显的触发因素导致崩盘，“除了最终有少数人开始卖出。”2024年带给我们的一个教训是，科技股仍然是华尔街的驱动力，而华尔街在2025年似乎也不愿意对它们产生怀疑。True Contrarian博客和通讯的首席执行官Steven Jon Kaplan在今年早些时候就提出了对科技股的反向押注，尽管这一预测尚未实现，但他坚持自己的看法，并且在他看来，现在的泡沫更大。他的成功记录包括建议在2020年的疫情抛售期间买入以及准确预测了近几年的一些科技股抛售。四月份时，Kaplan预测追踪纳斯达克100指数的交易所交易基金Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 （QQQ）将在一年内跌至300点，并在三年内跌破100点。该指数已从当时的427点升至522点。Kaplan说，“我仍然认为2025年的某个时间，我们将看到QQQ低于300点”，这意味着可能从现在水平下跌50%，他今年一直在周期性地做空QQQ。他对公司利润预期过高以及越来越多的证据表明大型科技公司在人工智能上的支出并未转化为丰厚利润表示担忧。Kaplan指出，强大的对冲基金可能会开始卖出，这些对冲基金占每日科技股成交量的很大比例。他提到，在2000年的互联网泡沫破裂中，并没有明显的触发因素导致崩盘，“除了最终有少数人开始卖出。”目前，大多数对冲基金遵循“趋势算法”，这意味着如果像QQQ这样的指数最终下跌20%，那么那些价值数万亿美元的资金将同时卖出，他说。如果QQQ跌至360点，第一波卖出潮可能会到来——商品期货交易委员会的数据是他观察对冲基金活动的一个地方。Kaplan还注意到了今年公司内部人士的卖出行为，例如Nvidia、Microsoft、Apple、Amazon、Costco和Walmart等公司。他注意到内部人士卖出在7月达到了历史最高纪录，8月有所缓解，但在11月和12月再次超过历史记录。他说：“这是一个非常庞大的数量，而且这种趋势已经从大型科技股扩展到许多其他成分股，很多其他美国大公司也是如此，”那么Kaplan现在把钱投在哪里呢？他认为是被视作“无聊的投资”的iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（TLT），该ETF价格从2020年3月的180美元下降到了当前的87美元。他预计只有当投资者开始看到股市损失时，才会出现大规模转向TLT的情况。他还通过Aberdeen Physical Palladium Shares ETF（PALL）投资钯金，因为大型对冲基金一直在做空这种金属。“人们仍然需要诸如燃料电池和汽车之类的基本物品，这些都需要钯金，这使得它成为了一个真正被遗忘的好买卖，”他说。根据他的分析，当前的熊市可能已经开始。他将当前的牛市追溯到2009年3月，之前的牛市分别从1990年10月持续到2000年3月，以及从1921年8月持续到1929年9月。随后的熊市分别为31个月和34个月，因此他估计下一个熊市将在2027年下半年触底，开启另一轮强劲的牛市。在这之前可能出现反弹——可能是明年夏天的一次大幅反弹，然后又会下跌。“它将基本上通过反复横跳来混淆大量投资者，就像2000年至2002年间所做的那样，”他说。在市场崩溃之后，大型科技股和知名股票可能会由于投资者的负面记忆而表现突出。相反，他建议关注2002年至2007年的赢家：“新兴市场、黄金矿业股、大宗商品生产商，以及小型和中型股，而不是大型股。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLT":1,"TTTN":0.65,"FDN":0.65,"03086":0.65,"PALL":1,"QQQ":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380175609549032,"gmtCreate":1733841781827,"gmtModify":1733841785851,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"真是个笑话","listText":"真是个笑话","text":"真是个笑话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380175609549032","repostId":"2490169010","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358692486258936,"gmtCreate":1728611578664,"gmtModify":1728611580585,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"打他脸","listText":"打他脸","text":"打他脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358692486258936","repostId":"2474241707","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2474241707","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1728605163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2474241707?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-11 08:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"富国银行第四季度交易策略，建议做空特斯拉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2474241707","media":"金融界","summary":"富国银行在2024年第四季度的几大交易策略之一是做空Elon Musk的电动汽车公司特斯拉。富国银行的最佳建议之一是做空特斯拉，押注其股价将下跌。Langan表示：“我们预计由于需求下降和价格下调效果减弱，特斯拉的交付增长将放缓。”展望年底，富国银行还提出了第四季度的其他战术性交易建议：其中之一是赌场运营商Las Vegas Sands，其2024年股价上涨了约5%，远低于大盘。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>在2024年第四季度的几大交易策略之一是做空Elon Musk的电动汽车公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA）。</p><p>截至10月，市场在月初的低迷之后有所反弹，投资者密切关注中东局势升级以及11月5日的美国总统大选。周三，股市小幅上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数创下新的盘中纪录，科技股领涨，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和Super Micro Computer。</p><p>富国银行的最佳建议之一是做空特斯拉，押注其股价将下跌。分析师Colin Langan的目标价为每股120美元，意味着相较周二收盘价244.50美元有超过50%的下行空间。</p><p>Langan表示：“我们预计由于需求下降和价格下调效果减弱，特斯拉的交付增长将放缓。”</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623347.png\"/></p><p>他还预计，特斯拉的汽车毛利率（不包括碳排放积分）将在公司继续降价和提供融资促销的情况下同比下滑400个基点。</p><p>“此外，我们对2025年后的Model 2需求和利润率感到担忧，”Langan补充道。“我们对其估值与‘科技七巨头’相比保持谨慎，并看到AI战略的风险。”</p><p>展望年底，富国银行还提出了第四季度的其他战术性交易建议：</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623575.png\"/></p><p>其中之一是赌场运营商Las Vegas Sands（LVS），其2024年股价上涨了约5%，远低于大盘。</p><p>富国银行分析师Dan Politzer认为，支持其每股60美元目标价的正面因素包括中国近期推出的一系列旨在提振经济的刺激措施，以及管理层对其澳门伦敦人项目的约25.5亿美元投资回报的信心。这些因素，加上盈利势头的改善，可能使Las Vegas Sands成为一个“独特的自救故事以及澳门/中国的宏观主题。”</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623772.png\"/></p><p>Politzer补充道：“我们认为LVS正走向盈利增长，并且是2025年的一个引人注目的投资机会。其施工干扰已经达到顶峰，有望在2025年逐季恢复总博彩收入份额并增加EBITDA。”</p><p>富国银行还密切关注保险服务公司Willis Towers Watson（WTW）。该公司2024年股价上涨了23%。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623989.png\"/></p><p>富国银行分析师Elyse Greenspan预计，改善的有机收入增长、自由现金流转换和利润率增加将推动其股价上涨。Greenspan还指出，Willis 12月的投资者日可能成为股价的潜在刺激因素，届时预计公司将进一步披露其长期增长目标</p>\n<div>\n<div>\r\n            责任编辑：栎树\r\n          </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>富国银行第四季度交易策略，建议做空特斯拉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n富国银行第四季度交易策略，建议做空特斯拉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-11 08:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/10/11080643900943.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>富国银行在2024年第四季度的几大交易策略之一是做空Elon Musk的电动汽车公司特斯拉（TSLA）。截至10月，市场在月初的低迷之后有所反弹，投资者密切关注中东局势升级以及11月5日的美国总统大选。周三，股市小幅上涨，标普500指数创下新的盘中纪录，科技股领涨，其中包括亚马逊和Super Micro Computer。富国银行的最佳建议之一是做空特斯拉，押注其股价将下跌。分析师Colin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/10/11080643900943.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://imgcloud.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623347.png","relate_stocks":{"SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO 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Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD"},"source_url":"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/10/11080643900943.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2474241707","content_text":"富国银行在2024年第四季度的几大交易策略之一是做空Elon Musk的电动汽车公司特斯拉（TSLA）。截至10月，市场在月初的低迷之后有所反弹，投资者密切关注中东局势升级以及11月5日的美国总统大选。周三，股市小幅上涨，标普500指数创下新的盘中纪录，科技股领涨，其中包括亚马逊和Super Micro Computer。富国银行的最佳建议之一是做空特斯拉，押注其股价将下跌。分析师Colin Langan的目标价为每股120美元，意味着相较周二收盘价244.50美元有超过50%的下行空间。Langan表示：“我们预计由于需求下降和价格下调效果减弱，特斯拉的交付增长将放缓。”他还预计，特斯拉的汽车毛利率（不包括碳排放积分）将在公司继续降价和提供融资促销的情况下同比下滑400个基点。“此外，我们对2025年后的Model 2需求和利润率感到担忧，”Langan补充道。“我们对其估值与‘科技七巨头’相比保持谨慎，并看到AI战略的风险。”展望年底，富国银行还提出了第四季度的其他战术性交易建议：其中之一是赌场运营商Las Vegas Sands（LVS），其2024年股价上涨了约5%，远低于大盘。富国银行分析师Dan Politzer认为，支持其每股60美元目标价的正面因素包括中国近期推出的一系列旨在提振经济的刺激措施，以及管理层对其澳门伦敦人项目的约25.5亿美元投资回报的信心。这些因素，加上盈利势头的改善，可能使Las Vegas Sands成为一个“独特的自救故事以及澳门/中国的宏观主题。”Politzer补充道：“我们认为LVS正走向盈利增长，并且是2025年的一个引人注目的投资机会。其施工干扰已经达到顶峰，有望在2025年逐季恢复总博彩收入份额并增加EBITDA。”富国银行还密切关注保险服务公司Willis Towers Watson（WTW）。该公司2024年股价上涨了23%。富国银行分析师Elyse Greenspan预计，改善的有机收入增长、自由现金流转换和利润率增加将推动其股价上涨。Greenspan还指出，Willis 12月的投资者日可能成为股价的潜在刺激因素，届时预计公司将进一步披露其长期增长目标\n\n\r\n            责任编辑：栎树","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":0.6,"TSLA":1,"TSLL":1,"WFC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352165427785912,"gmtCreate":1727016884101,"gmtModify":1727016886422,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"难道高通的高管不清楚这些人人看得到的问题？我们想了解的是看不到的那些。例如制造板块是否会分离出去独立，芯片业务独立，各部分分离后的市场技术竞争力与估值，美国的政策方向。","listText":"难道高通的高管不清楚这些人人看得到的问题？我们想了解的是看不到的那些。例如制造板块是否会分离出去独立，芯片业务独立，各部分分离后的市场技术竞争力与估值，美国的政策方向。","text":"难道高通的高管不清楚这些人人看得到的问题？我们想了解的是看不到的那些。例如制造板块是否会分离出去独立，芯片业务独立，各部分分离后的市场技术竞争力与估值，美国的政策方向。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352165427785912","repostId":"1122650552","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122650552","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1726986700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122650552?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-22 14:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122650552","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"天风国际知名苹果分析师郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的AI PC晶片业务有帮助。但从微软对WoA的承诺 (其最新Surface机型都采用高通处理器/ARM架构)，高通在PC市场成长只是早晚问题。此外，单从英特尔市值约930亿美元来看，此并购案对高通的财务压力极大，且对获利能力会有立即性的负面影响，净利率可能从现在的20%+降到个位数甚至亏损 (晶圆代工业务是最大累赘)。加之考虑到各国之后的反垄断调查，此并购案很难在短期内完成。如此看来，高通应该没有强烈动机去并购英特尔才是，此并购案若发生，对高通可说是灾难一场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。<strong>然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难</strong>。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60c7b389b04d4c5b5f848eb1dcdd40f\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"512\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），<strong>高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题</strong>。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤还称：</p><blockquote><p>为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。</p><p><strong>英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限</strong>。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。</p><p>高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，<strong>仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力</strong>。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。</p><p>高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。</p><p>考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，<strong>此次收购很难在短期内完成</strong>。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。</p><p>出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：<strong>高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性</strong>。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">3、AI 服务器芯片：高通的弱项。</p></li></ul><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-22 14:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。<strong>然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难</strong>。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60c7b389b04d4c5b5f848eb1dcdd40f\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"512\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），<strong>高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题</strong>。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤还称：</p><blockquote><p>为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。</p><p><strong>英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限</strong>。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。</p><p>高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，<strong>仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力</strong>。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。</p><p>高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。</p><p>考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，<strong>此次收购很难在短期内完成</strong>。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。</p><p>出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：<strong>高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性</strong>。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">3、AI 服务器芯片：高通的弱项。</p></li></ul><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/994ce736e6a1ce2b6fe2a8e8040fed18","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122650552","content_text":"天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难。”郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。郭明錤还称：为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，此次收购很难在短期内完成。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性。郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。3、AI 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13:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103660322","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：</strong></p><p><strong>1． FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2． 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3． 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4． 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk&#39;s biggest believer. Now he&#39;s doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-02-24 13:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：</strong></p><p><strong>1． FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2． 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3． 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4． 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk&#39;s biggest believer. Now he&#39;s doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74682068d49f2901bc7ff0be69cf3e49","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103660322","content_text":"他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。2月24日，特斯拉投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：1． FSD“行不通”格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”2． 马斯克分心了从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”3． 电动汽车销售放缓虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。4． 特斯拉估值较高相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的英伟达（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。摩根大通对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk's biggest believer. Now he's doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"TSLL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509649668694776,"gmtCreate":1765464227040,"gmtModify":1765464229731,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"记住了，他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","listText":"记住了，他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","text":"记住了，他做空特斯拉亏了上百亿美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509649668694776","repostId":"2590560306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2590560306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765436015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2590560306?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-11 14:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫：部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2590560306","media":"ITBEAR科技资讯","summary":"比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时，就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出，当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间，这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折，建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。\"盖茨强调，当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象，某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。\"盖茨特别强调，投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值，避免将两者混为一谈。","content":"<html><body><article><p>比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时，就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出，当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间，这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折，建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。</p><p>\"人工智能无疑是改变人类文明进程的关键技术，但这不意味着所有高估值企业都能存活。\"盖茨强调，当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象，某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。他特别提到，当技术突破进入平台期后，市场将经历残酷的洗牌过程。</p><p>数据显示，部分科技企业的财务指标已出现显著偏离。以数据分析公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>和电动汽车巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>为例，其市盈率分别达到215倍和203倍，而同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分股的平均市盈率仅为25倍左右。这种悬殊的估值差异，正在引发市场对泡沫化的广泛讨论。</p><p>全球资本市场已开始显现调整迹象。11月全球主要股指集体回落，纳斯达克科技指数单月跌幅达5.6%。盖茨分析认为，这种波动本质上是对前期非理性繁荣的修正，特别是那些缺乏核心技术壁垒的企业，其估值泡沫破裂的风险正在累积。</p><p>尽管对短期风险保持警惕，这位科技巨头创始人仍对AI技术发展持坚定乐观态度。他详细列举了医疗诊断、个性化教育、精准农业等应用场景，认为这些领域将因AI技术产生革命性突破。\"当技术真正解决人类重大挑战时，其创造的价值将远超当前市场想象。\"盖茨特别强调，投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值，避免将两者混为一谈。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫：部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比尔·盖茨警示AI泡沫：部分高估值公司或难逃“超级竞争”淘汰赛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-11 14:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211150948979c3f1d&s=b><strong>ITBEAR科技资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时，就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出，当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间，这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折，建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。\"人工智能无疑是改变人类文明进程的关键技术，但这不意味着所有高估值企业都能存活。\"盖茨强调，当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象，某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。他特别提到，当技术突破...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211150948979c3f1d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) 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(M)"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211150948979c3f1d&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2590560306","content_text":"比尔·盖茨在近期接受CNBC专访时，就人工智能行业估值问题发表了独到见解。他直言不讳地指出，当前部分AI企业估值已脱离合理区间，这类公司在即将到来的\"白热化竞争\"中可能遭遇重大挫折，建议投资者审慎评估市场风险。\"人工智能无疑是改变人类文明进程的关键技术，但这不意味着所有高估值企业都能存活。\"盖茨强调，当前行业估值体系存在明显扭曲现象，某些公司的资本定价已远超其实际价值支撑。他特别提到，当技术突破进入平台期后，市场将经历残酷的洗牌过程。数据显示，部分科技企业的财务指标已出现显著偏离。以数据分析公司Palantir和电动汽车巨头特斯拉为例，其市盈率分别达到215倍和203倍，而同期标普500指数成分股的平均市盈率仅为25倍左右。这种悬殊的估值差异，正在引发市场对泡沫化的广泛讨论。全球资本市场已开始显现调整迹象。11月全球主要股指集体回落，纳斯达克科技指数单月跌幅达5.6%。盖茨分析认为，这种波动本质上是对前期非理性繁荣的修正，特别是那些缺乏核心技术壁垒的企业，其估值泡沫破裂的风险正在累积。尽管对短期风险保持警惕，这位科技巨头创始人仍对AI技术发展持坚定乐观态度。他详细列举了医疗诊断、个性化教育、精准农业等应用场景，认为这些领域将因AI技术产生革命性突破。\"当技术真正解决人类重大挑战时，其创造的价值将远超当前市场想象。\"盖茨特别强调，投资者应区分技术前景与公司估值，避免将两者混为一谈。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308302926405944,"gmtCreate":1716291111417,"gmtModify":1716291113290,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"国人的公司真的很多坑","listText":"国人的公司真的很多坑","text":"国人的公司真的很多坑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308302926405944","repostId":"2437495789","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2437495789","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Share your news with media, investors, and consumers with targeted distribution options from one of the world’s largest and most trusted newswires.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"GlobeNewswire","id":"1016364462","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31bb960c88eab45f27ccc9fce75dee9a"},"pubTimestamp":1716280778,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2437495789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-21 16:39","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"JD.com Drops 5% After the Company Announces Proposed Offering of US$1.5 Billion Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>京东宣布拟议发行 15 亿美元可转换优先票据后股价下跌 5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2437495789","media":"GlobeNewswire","summary":"BEIJING, May  21, 2024  (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (“JD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: JD and HKEX: 9618 (HKD counter) and 89618 (RMB counter)), a leading supply chain-based technology and service ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>JD.com stock dropped 5% in premarket trading after the company announces proposed offering of US$1.5 billion convertible senior notes.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>京东宣布拟议发行 15 亿美元可转换优先票据后，该公司股价在盘前交易中下跌 5%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64a800228a11cef45f2243f80c55bc1b\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p>BEIJING, May 21, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (“JD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: JD and HKEX: 9618 (HKD counter) and 89618 (RMB counter)), a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider, today announced a proposed offering (the “Notes Offering”) of convertible senior notes in an aggregate principal amount of US$1.5 billion due 2029 (the “Notes”), subject to market conditions and other factors. The Company intends to grant an option to the initial purchasers in the Notes Offering, exercisable within a 30-day period, beginning on and including the date of the Notes Offering, to purchase up to an additional US$225 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes.<br/></p><p><blockquote>北京，2024 年 5 月 21 日 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 领先的供应链技术和服务提供商京东公司（“JD”或“公司”）（纳斯达克代码：JD 和香港联交所代码：9618（港元柜台）和 89618（人民币柜台））今天宣布拟议发行（“票据发行”）2029 年到期的本金总额为 15 亿美元的可转换优先票据（“票据”），但需视市场状况和其他因素而定。本公司拟向票据发售中的初始买家授予购股权，购股权可于票据发售当日（包括当日）开始的 30 天内行使，以额外购买最多 2.25 亿美元的票据本金总额。<br/></blockquote></p><p>The Company plans to use the net proceeds from the Notes Offering (a) for the Concurrent Repurchase (as described below) and to repurchase on the open market, after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time, additional Class A ordinary shares and/or American depositary shares (“ADSs”), each representing two Class A ordinary shares, of the Company pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), (b) to expand its overseas business, (c) to further improve its supply chain network and (d) for working capital needs.</p><p><blockquote>本公司计划将票据发售所得款项净额用于(a)同时购回（如下所述），并于票据定价后于公开市场上不时购回本公司额外的A类普通股及╱或美国存托股份（“美国存托股份”），每股代表两股A类普通股，(b)扩展其海外业务，(c)进一步改善其供应链网络，及(d)满足营运资金需求。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Expected Terms of the Notes</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>票据的预期条款</strong></blockquote></p><p>When issued, the Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company. The Notes will mature on June 1, 2029, unless earlier redeemed, repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date.</p><p><blockquote>发行时，票据将是本公司的优先无抵押债务。票据将于2029年6月1日到期，除非在该日期之前根据其条款提前赎回、回购或转换。</blockquote></p><p>Holders of the Notes may convert their Notes at their option at any time prior to the close of business on the third scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date. Upon conversion, the Company will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, ADSs, or a combination of cash and ADSs, at the Company’s election. Holders may elect to receive Class A ordinary shares in lieu of any ADSs deliverable upon conversion, which will be fungible with the Company’s Class A ordinary shares listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“Hong Kong Stock Exchange”) after the resale restriction termination date (as set forth in the terms of the Notes). The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes.</p><p><blockquote>票据持有人可于紧接到期日前第三个预定交易日收市前随时选择兑换其票据。转换后，公司将根据公司的选择支付或交付现金、美国存托凭证或现金与美国存托凭证的组合（视情况而定）。持有人可选择收取A类普通股以代替兑换时可交付的任何美国存托凭证，该等股份将于转售限制终止日期（如附注条款所载）后可与本公司于香港联合交易所有限公司（「香港联交所」）上市的A类普通股互换。票据的利率、初始兑换率及其他条款将于票据定价时厘定。</blockquote></p><p>Holders of the Notes may require the Company to repurchase all or part of their Notes for cash on June 1, 2027 or in the event of certain fundamental changes, at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant repurchase date. In addition, on or after June 8, 2027, the Company may redeem all or part of the Notes for cash subject to certain conditions, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant optional redemption date. Furthermore, the Company may redeem all but not part of the Notes in the event of certain changes in the tax laws or if less than 10% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes originally issued remains outstanding at such time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the related redemption date.</p><p><blockquote>票据持有人可要求本公司于二零二七年六月一日或倘发生若干基本变动，以相等于拟购回票据本金额100%的购回价格，另加截至（但不包括）相关购回日期的应计及未付利息（如有），以现金方式购回全部或部分票据。此外，于2027年6月8日或之后，本公司可在若干条件下赎回全部或部分票据以换取现金，赎回价相等于拟赎回票据本金额的100%，另加截至（但不包括）相关可选赎回日期的应计及未付利息（如有）。此外，倘税法出现若干变动，或倘当时原先发行的票据本金总额少于10%仍未偿还，本公司可赎回全部（但不包括部分）票据，赎回价相等于拟赎回票据本金的100%，另加截至（但不包括）相关赎回日期的应计及未付利息（如有）。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Concurrent and Future Repurchases</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>并行及未来回购</strong></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Concurrently with the pricing of the Notes, the Company plans to repurchase a number of its Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs to be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes from certain purchasers of the Notes in off-market privately negotiated transactions effected through one of the initial purchasers or its affiliates, as the Company’s agent (such transactions, the “Concurrent Repurchase”). The Concurrent Repurchase is expected to facilitate the initial hedging by purchasers of the Notes who desire to hedge their investments in the Notes, as the Company intends to repurchase the entire initial delta of the transaction. This will allow such purchasers of the Notes to establish short positions that generally correspond to commercially reasonable initial hedges of their investments in the Notes. The Concurrent Repurchase will be made pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program announced in March 2024. The Company expects the purchase price in the Concurrent Repurchase to be (i) in the case of ADSs, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024 as adjusted for the ADS-to-share ratio at a pre-determined exchange rate for U.S. dollars and (ii) in the case of Class A ordinary shares, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024.</p><p><blockquote>在票据定价的同时，本公司计划通过其中一名初始购买者或其联属公司（作为本公司代理人）进行的场外私下协商交易，从票据定价时确定的若干票据购买者手中回购若干A类普通股及╱或美国存托凭证（该等交易称为「同时回购」）。由于本公司打算购回交易的全部初始增量，因此预计同时购回有利于希望对冲票据投资的票据购买者进行初步对冲。此举将允许票据买家建立淡仓，通常相当于彼等于票据投资的商业上合理的初始对冲。同时回购将根据公司于 2024 年 3 月宣布的股票回购计划进行。本公司预计同时购回的收购价为(i) 就美国存托凭证而言，为香港联交所A类普通股于2024年5月21日的收市价，并按预定美元汇率就美国存托凭证与股份的比率进行调整；及(ii) 就A类普通股而言，为香港联交所A类普通股于2024年5月21日的收市价。</blockquote></p><p>In addition to the Concurrent Repurchase, the Company may also repurchase additional Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs on the open market after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time. The Concurrent Repurchase and future repurchases pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program(s) will be funded by the net proceeds of the Notes Offering and other cash on hand, and, in the aggregate, are generally expected to offset potential dilution to the holders of the Company’s ordinary shares (including in the form of ADSs) upon conversion of the Notes.</p><p><blockquote>除同时购回外，本公司亦可于票据定价后及不时于公开市场购回额外A类普通股及╱或美国存托凭证。根据公司股份购回计划进行的同时购回和未来购回将由票据发售所得款项净额和其他手头现金提供资金，总体而言，预计票据转换后，将抵销公司普通股（包括美国存托凭证）持有人的潜在摊薄。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Other Matters</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>其他事项</strong></blockquote></p><p>The repurchase activities by the Company, whether in the Concurrent Repurchase or otherwise pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), could increase, or reduce the magnitude of any decrease in, the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes.</p><p><blockquote>本公司的购回活动（无论是同时购回或根据其股份购回计划进行）可增加或减少美国存讬股份及╱或A类普通股市价及╱或票据交易价格的任何跌幅。</blockquote></p><p>The Company expects that potential purchasers of the Notes may employ a convertible arbitrage strategy to hedge their exposure in connection with the Notes. Any such activities by potential purchasers of the Notes following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity date could affect the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes. The effect, if any, of the activities described in this paragraph, including the direction or magnitude, on the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes will depend on a variety of factors, including market conditions, and cannot be ascertained at this time.</p><p><blockquote>本公司预期票据的潜在买家可能会采用可转换套利策略来对冲彼等与票据相关的风险。票据的潜在买家于票据定价后及到期日前进行的任何该等活动可能会影响美国存托凭证及╱或A类普通股的市价及╱或票据的交易价格。本段所述活动对美国存托凭证及╱或A类普通股市价及╱或票据交易价格的影响（如有）将取决于多种因素，包括市况，目前无法确定。</blockquote></p><p>The Notes, the ADSs deliverable upon conversion of the Notes, if any, and the Class A ordinary shares represented thereby or deliverable upon conversion of Notes in lieu thereof have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or securities laws of any other places. They may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. persons, except to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 144A under the Securities Act and to certain non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act.</p><p><blockquote>票据、兑换票据时可交付的美国存托凭证（如有）以及由此代表或兑换票据时可交付的A类普通股尚未且将不会根据经修订的1933年证券法（「证券法」）或任何其他地方的证券法登记。它们不得在美国境内或向美国人发售或出售，但根据《证券法》第144A条规定的注册豁免被合理认为是合格机构买家的人，以及根据《证券法》第S条规定的离岸交易中的某些非美国人除外。</blockquote></p><p>This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, nor shall there be a sale of the securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿不构成出售要约或购买任何证券的要约邀约，也不构成在此类要约、邀约或出售非法的任何州或司法管辖区出售证券。</blockquote></p><p>This press release contains information about the pending Notes Offering, and there can be no assurance that the Notes Offering will be completed.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿包含有关未决票据发行的信息，不能保证票据发行将会完成。</blockquote></p><p><strong>About JD.com, Inc.</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>关于京东公司。</strong></blockquote></p><p>JD.com is a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.</p><p><blockquote>京东是一家领先的供应链技术和服务提供商。该公司尖端的零售基础设施旨在让消费者能够随时随地购买他们想要的任何东西。该公司已向合作伙伴、品牌和其他行业开放其技术和基础设施，作为其零售即服务产品的一部分，以帮助推动一系列行业的生产力和创新。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Safe Harbor Statement</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>安全港声明</strong></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “confident” and similar statements. JD.com may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in announcements made on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about JD.com’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: JD.com’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; its ability to attract and retain new customers and to increase revenues generated from repeat customers; its expectations regarding demand for and market acceptance of its products and services; trends and competition in China’s e-commerce market; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of the Chinese e-commerce market; laws, regulations and governmental policies relating to the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate; potential changes in laws, regulations and governmental policies or changes in the interpretation and implementation of laws, regulations and governmental policies that could adversely affect the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate, including, among others, initiatives to enhance supervision of companies listed on an overseas exchange and tighten scrutiny over data privacy and data security; risks associated with JD.com’s acquisitions, investments and alliances, including fluctuation in the market value of JD.com’s investment portfolio; natural disasters and geopolitical events; change in tax rates and financial risks; intensity of competition; and general market and economic conditions in China and globally. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in JD.com’s filings with the SEC and the announcements on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. All information provided herein is as of the date of this announcement, and JD.com undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含前瞻性陈述。这些声明是根据 1995 年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的 “安全港 ”条款作出的。这些前瞻性陈述可以用 “将 ”、 “期望 ”、 “预期 ”、 “未来 ”、 “打算 ”、 “计划 ”、 “相信 ”、 “估计 ”、 “有信心 ”等术语来识别。京东亦可在向美国证券交易委员会（「SEC」）提交的定期报告、在香港联交所网站发布的公告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及其高级职员、董事或雇员向第三方作出的口头陈述中作出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。非历史事实的陈述，包括有关京东信念和期望的陈述，都是前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述涉及固有的风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下内容： 京东的增长战略；其未来业务发展、经营业绩及财务状况；其吸引及保留新客户及增加回头客收入的能力；其对其产品及服务的需求及市场接受度的预期；中国电子商务市场的趋势和竞争；其收入及若干成本或开支项目的变动；中国电子商务市场的预期增长；与京东或其业务伙伴经营所在行业有关的法律、法规及政府政策；法律、法规及政府政策的潜在变动，或法律、法规及政府政策的诠释及实施变动，可能对京东或其业务合作伙伴经营的行业造成不利影响，包括（其中包括）加强对海外交易所上市公司的监管及加强对数据隐私及数据安全的审查的举措；与京东收购、投资和联盟相关的风险，包括京东投资组合市场价值的波动；自然灾害和地缘政治事件；税率变动及财务风险；竞争激烈程度；以及中国和全球的整体市场和经济状况。有关这些风险和其他风险的更多信息，请参阅京东向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件和香港联交所网站上的公告。此处提供的所有信息截至本公告发布之日，京东不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非适用法律要求。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2196de8ba412c60c22ab491af7b1409\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\"/></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD.com Drops 5% After the Company Announces Proposed Offering of US$1.5 Billion Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>京东宣布拟议发行 15 亿美元可转换优先票据后股价下跌 5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD.com Drops 5% After the Company Announces Proposed Offering of US$1.5 Billion Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>京东宣布拟议发行 15 亿美元可转换优先票据后股价下跌 5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1016364462\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/31bb960c88eab45f27ccc9fce75dee9a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">GlobeNewswire </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2024-05-21 16:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>JD.com stock dropped 5% in premarket trading after the company announces proposed offering of US$1.5 billion convertible senior notes.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>京东宣布拟议发行 15 亿美元可转换优先票据后，该公司股价在盘前交易中下跌 5%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64a800228a11cef45f2243f80c55bc1b\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p>BEIJING, May 21, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (“JD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: JD and HKEX: 9618 (HKD counter) and 89618 (RMB counter)), a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider, today announced a proposed offering (the “Notes Offering”) of convertible senior notes in an aggregate principal amount of US$1.5 billion due 2029 (the “Notes”), subject to market conditions and other factors. The Company intends to grant an option to the initial purchasers in the Notes Offering, exercisable within a 30-day period, beginning on and including the date of the Notes Offering, to purchase up to an additional US$225 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes.<br/></p><p><blockquote>北京，2024 年 5 月 21 日 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 领先的供应链技术和服务提供商京东公司（“JD”或“公司”）（纳斯达克代码：JD 和香港联交所代码：9618（港元柜台）和 89618（人民币柜台））今天宣布拟议发行（“票据发行”）2029 年到期的本金总额为 15 亿美元的可转换优先票据（“票据”），但需视市场状况和其他因素而定。本公司拟向票据发售中的初始买家授予购股权，购股权可于票据发售当日（包括当日）开始的 30 天内行使，以额外购买最多 2.25 亿美元的票据本金总额。<br/></blockquote></p><p>The Company plans to use the net proceeds from the Notes Offering (a) for the Concurrent Repurchase (as described below) and to repurchase on the open market, after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time, additional Class A ordinary shares and/or American depositary shares (“ADSs”), each representing two Class A ordinary shares, of the Company pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), (b) to expand its overseas business, (c) to further improve its supply chain network and (d) for working capital needs.</p><p><blockquote>本公司计划将票据发售所得款项净额用于(a)同时购回（如下所述），并于票据定价后于公开市场上不时购回本公司额外的A类普通股及╱或美国存托股份（“美国存托股份”），每股代表两股A类普通股，(b)扩展其海外业务，(c)进一步改善其供应链网络，及(d)满足营运资金需求。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Expected Terms of the Notes</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>票据的预期条款</strong></blockquote></p><p>When issued, the Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company. The Notes will mature on June 1, 2029, unless earlier redeemed, repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date.</p><p><blockquote>发行时，票据将是本公司的优先无抵押债务。票据将于2029年6月1日到期，除非在该日期之前根据其条款提前赎回、回购或转换。</blockquote></p><p>Holders of the Notes may convert their Notes at their option at any time prior to the close of business on the third scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date. Upon conversion, the Company will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, ADSs, or a combination of cash and ADSs, at the Company’s election. Holders may elect to receive Class A ordinary shares in lieu of any ADSs deliverable upon conversion, which will be fungible with the Company’s Class A ordinary shares listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“Hong Kong Stock Exchange”) after the resale restriction termination date (as set forth in the terms of the Notes). The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes.</p><p><blockquote>票据持有人可于紧接到期日前第三个预定交易日收市前随时选择兑换其票据。转换后，公司将根据公司的选择支付或交付现金、美国存托凭证或现金与美国存托凭证的组合（视情况而定）。持有人可选择收取A类普通股以代替兑换时可交付的任何美国存托凭证，该等股份将于转售限制终止日期（如附注条款所载）后可与本公司于香港联合交易所有限公司（「香港联交所」）上市的A类普通股互换。票据的利率、初始兑换率及其他条款将于票据定价时厘定。</blockquote></p><p>Holders of the Notes may require the Company to repurchase all or part of their Notes for cash on June 1, 2027 or in the event of certain fundamental changes, at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant repurchase date. In addition, on or after June 8, 2027, the Company may redeem all or part of the Notes for cash subject to certain conditions, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant optional redemption date. Furthermore, the Company may redeem all but not part of the Notes in the event of certain changes in the tax laws or if less than 10% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes originally issued remains outstanding at such time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the related redemption date.</p><p><blockquote>票据持有人可要求本公司于二零二七年六月一日或倘发生若干基本变动，以相等于拟购回票据本金额100%的购回价格，另加截至（但不包括）相关购回日期的应计及未付利息（如有），以现金方式购回全部或部分票据。此外，于2027年6月8日或之后，本公司可在若干条件下赎回全部或部分票据以换取现金，赎回价相等于拟赎回票据本金额的100%，另加截至（但不包括）相关可选赎回日期的应计及未付利息（如有）。此外，倘税法出现若干变动，或倘当时原先发行的票据本金总额少于10%仍未偿还，本公司可赎回全部（但不包括部分）票据，赎回价相等于拟赎回票据本金的100%，另加截至（但不包括）相关赎回日期的应计及未付利息（如有）。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Concurrent and Future Repurchases</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>并行及未来回购</strong></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Concurrently with the pricing of the Notes, the Company plans to repurchase a number of its Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs to be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes from certain purchasers of the Notes in off-market privately negotiated transactions effected through one of the initial purchasers or its affiliates, as the Company’s agent (such transactions, the “Concurrent Repurchase”). The Concurrent Repurchase is expected to facilitate the initial hedging by purchasers of the Notes who desire to hedge their investments in the Notes, as the Company intends to repurchase the entire initial delta of the transaction. This will allow such purchasers of the Notes to establish short positions that generally correspond to commercially reasonable initial hedges of their investments in the Notes. The Concurrent Repurchase will be made pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program announced in March 2024. The Company expects the purchase price in the Concurrent Repurchase to be (i) in the case of ADSs, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024 as adjusted for the ADS-to-share ratio at a pre-determined exchange rate for U.S. dollars and (ii) in the case of Class A ordinary shares, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024.</p><p><blockquote>在票据定价的同时，本公司计划通过其中一名初始购买者或其联属公司（作为本公司代理人）进行的场外私下协商交易，从票据定价时确定的若干票据购买者手中回购若干A类普通股及╱或美国存托凭证（该等交易称为「同时回购」）。由于本公司打算购回交易的全部初始增量，因此预计同时购回有利于希望对冲票据投资的票据购买者进行初步对冲。此举将允许票据买家建立淡仓，通常相当于彼等于票据投资的商业上合理的初始对冲。同时回购将根据公司于 2024 年 3 月宣布的股票回购计划进行。本公司预计同时购回的收购价为(i) 就美国存托凭证而言，为香港联交所A类普通股于2024年5月21日的收市价，并按预定美元汇率就美国存托凭证与股份的比率进行调整；及(ii) 就A类普通股而言，为香港联交所A类普通股于2024年5月21日的收市价。</blockquote></p><p>In addition to the Concurrent Repurchase, the Company may also repurchase additional Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs on the open market after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time. The Concurrent Repurchase and future repurchases pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program(s) will be funded by the net proceeds of the Notes Offering and other cash on hand, and, in the aggregate, are generally expected to offset potential dilution to the holders of the Company’s ordinary shares (including in the form of ADSs) upon conversion of the Notes.</p><p><blockquote>除同时购回外，本公司亦可于票据定价后及不时于公开市场购回额外A类普通股及╱或美国存托凭证。根据公司股份购回计划进行的同时购回和未来购回将由票据发售所得款项净额和其他手头现金提供资金，总体而言，预计票据转换后，将抵销公司普通股（包括美国存托凭证）持有人的潜在摊薄。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Other Matters</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>其他事项</strong></blockquote></p><p>The repurchase activities by the Company, whether in the Concurrent Repurchase or otherwise pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), could increase, or reduce the magnitude of any decrease in, the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes.</p><p><blockquote>本公司的购回活动（无论是同时购回或根据其股份购回计划进行）可增加或减少美国存讬股份及╱或A类普通股市价及╱或票据交易价格的任何跌幅。</blockquote></p><p>The Company expects that potential purchasers of the Notes may employ a convertible arbitrage strategy to hedge their exposure in connection with the Notes. Any such activities by potential purchasers of the Notes following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity date could affect the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes. The effect, if any, of the activities described in this paragraph, including the direction or magnitude, on the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes will depend on a variety of factors, including market conditions, and cannot be ascertained at this time.</p><p><blockquote>本公司预期票据的潜在买家可能会采用可转换套利策略来对冲彼等与票据相关的风险。票据的潜在买家于票据定价后及到期日前进行的任何该等活动可能会影响美国存托凭证及╱或A类普通股的市价及╱或票据的交易价格。本段所述活动对美国存托凭证及╱或A类普通股市价及╱或票据交易价格的影响（如有）将取决于多种因素，包括市况，目前无法确定。</blockquote></p><p>The Notes, the ADSs deliverable upon conversion of the Notes, if any, and the Class A ordinary shares represented thereby or deliverable upon conversion of Notes in lieu thereof have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or securities laws of any other places. They may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. persons, except to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 144A under the Securities Act and to certain non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act.</p><p><blockquote>票据、兑换票据时可交付的美国存托凭证（如有）以及由此代表或兑换票据时可交付的A类普通股尚未且将不会根据经修订的1933年证券法（「证券法」）或任何其他地方的证券法登记。它们不得在美国境内或向美国人发售或出售，但根据《证券法》第144A条规定的注册豁免被合理认为是合格机构买家的人，以及根据《证券法》第S条规定的离岸交易中的某些非美国人除外。</blockquote></p><p>This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, nor shall there be a sale of the securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿不构成出售要约或购买任何证券的要约邀约，也不构成在此类要约、邀约或出售非法的任何州或司法管辖区出售证券。</blockquote></p><p>This press release contains information about the pending Notes Offering, and there can be no assurance that the Notes Offering will be completed.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿包含有关未决票据发行的信息，不能保证票据发行将会完成。</blockquote></p><p><strong>About JD.com, Inc.</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>关于京东公司。</strong></blockquote></p><p>JD.com is a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.</p><p><blockquote>京东是一家领先的供应链技术和服务提供商。该公司尖端的零售基础设施旨在让消费者能够随时随地购买他们想要的任何东西。该公司已向合作伙伴、品牌和其他行业开放其技术和基础设施，作为其零售即服务产品的一部分，以帮助推动一系列行业的生产力和创新。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Safe Harbor Statement</strong></p><p><blockquote><strong>安全港声明</strong></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “confident” and similar statements. JD.com may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in announcements made on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about JD.com’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: JD.com’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; its ability to attract and retain new customers and to increase revenues generated from repeat customers; its expectations regarding demand for and market acceptance of its products and services; trends and competition in China’s e-commerce market; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of the Chinese e-commerce market; laws, regulations and governmental policies relating to the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate; potential changes in laws, regulations and governmental policies or changes in the interpretation and implementation of laws, regulations and governmental policies that could adversely affect the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate, including, among others, initiatives to enhance supervision of companies listed on an overseas exchange and tighten scrutiny over data privacy and data security; risks associated with JD.com’s acquisitions, investments and alliances, including fluctuation in the market value of JD.com’s investment portfolio; natural disasters and geopolitical events; change in tax rates and financial risks; intensity of competition; and general market and economic conditions in China and globally. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in JD.com’s filings with the SEC and the announcements on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. All information provided herein is as of the date of this announcement, and JD.com undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p><blockquote>本公告包含前瞻性陈述。这些声明是根据 1995 年美国私人证券诉讼改革法案的 “安全港 ”条款作出的。这些前瞻性陈述可以用 “将 ”、 “期望 ”、 “预期 ”、 “未来 ”、 “打算 ”、 “计划 ”、 “相信 ”、 “估计 ”、 “有信心 ”等术语来识别。京东亦可在向美国证券交易委员会（「SEC」）提交的定期报告、在香港联交所网站发布的公告、向股东提交的年度报告、新闻稿和其他书面材料以及其高级职员、董事或雇员向第三方作出的口头陈述中作出书面或口头前瞻性陈述。非历史事实的陈述，包括有关京东信念和期望的陈述，都是前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述涉及固有的风险和不确定性。许多因素可能导致实际结果与任何前瞻性陈述中包含的结果存在重大差异，包括但不限于以下内容： 京东的增长战略；其未来业务发展、经营业绩及财务状况；其吸引及保留新客户及增加回头客收入的能力；其对其产品及服务的需求及市场接受度的预期；中国电子商务市场的趋势和竞争；其收入及若干成本或开支项目的变动；中国电子商务市场的预期增长；与京东或其业务伙伴经营所在行业有关的法律、法规及政府政策；法律、法规及政府政策的潜在变动，或法律、法规及政府政策的诠释及实施变动，可能对京东或其业务合作伙伴经营的行业造成不利影响，包括（其中包括）加强对海外交易所上市公司的监管及加强对数据隐私及数据安全的审查的举措；与京东收购、投资和联盟相关的风险，包括京东投资组合市场价值的波动；自然灾害和地缘政治事件；税率变动及财务风险；竞争激烈程度；以及中国和全球的整体市场和经济状况。有关这些风险和其他风险的更多信息，请参阅京东向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件和香港联交所网站上的公告。此处提供的所有信息截至本公告发布之日，京东不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，除非适用法律要求。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2196de8ba412c60c22ab491af7b1409\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\"/></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89618":"京东集团-SWR","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","BK1502":"双十一","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","LU0315179316.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN DYNAMIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1249":"综合零售","BK4558":"双十一","BK4588":"碎股","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0588545904.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income ASDM SGD","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU1366334651.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0588545730.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"ADM\" (USD) INC","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1044876610.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) ASIAN CONTRARIAN EQUITY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU1366334578.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","BK1588":"回港中概股","09618":"京东集团-SW","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU0456842615.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","JD":"京东","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0431992006.USD":"摩根大通新兴市场机会A（acc）","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU1044875133.USD":"天利亚洲反向股票 AU Acc","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD"},"source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/05/21/2885338/0/en/JD-com-Announces-Proposed-Offering-of-US-1-5-Billion-Convertible-Senior-Notes.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2437495789","content_text":"JD.com stock dropped 5% in premarket trading after the company announces proposed offering of US$1.5 billion convertible senior notes.BEIJING, May 21, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (“JD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: JD and HKEX: 9618 (HKD counter) and 89618 (RMB counter)), a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider, today announced a proposed offering (the “Notes Offering”) of convertible senior notes in an aggregate principal amount of US$1.5 billion due 2029 (the “Notes”), subject to market conditions and other factors. The Company intends to grant an option to the initial purchasers in the Notes Offering, exercisable within a 30-day period, beginning on and including the date of the Notes Offering, to purchase up to an additional US$225 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes.The Company plans to use the net proceeds from the Notes Offering (a) for the Concurrent Repurchase (as described below) and to repurchase on the open market, after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time, additional Class A ordinary shares and/or American depositary shares (“ADSs”), each representing two Class A ordinary shares, of the Company pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), (b) to expand its overseas business, (c) to further improve its supply chain network and (d) for working capital needs.Expected Terms of the NotesWhen issued, the Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company. The Notes will mature on June 1, 2029, unless earlier redeemed, repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date.Holders of the Notes may convert their Notes at their option at any time prior to the close of business on the third scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date. Upon conversion, the Company will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, ADSs, or a combination of cash and ADSs, at the Company’s election. Holders may elect to receive Class A ordinary shares in lieu of any ADSs deliverable upon conversion, which will be fungible with the Company’s Class A ordinary shares listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“Hong Kong Stock Exchange”) after the resale restriction termination date (as set forth in the terms of the Notes). The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes.Holders of the Notes may require the Company to repurchase all or part of their Notes for cash on June 1, 2027 or in the event of certain fundamental changes, at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant repurchase date. In addition, on or after June 8, 2027, the Company may redeem all or part of the Notes for cash subject to certain conditions, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant optional redemption date. Furthermore, the Company may redeem all but not part of the Notes in the event of certain changes in the tax laws or if less than 10% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes originally issued remains outstanding at such time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the related redemption date.Concurrent and Future RepurchasesConcurrently with the pricing of the Notes, the Company plans to repurchase a number of its Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs to be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes from certain purchasers of the Notes in off-market privately negotiated transactions effected through one of the initial purchasers or its affiliates, as the Company’s agent (such transactions, the “Concurrent Repurchase”). The Concurrent Repurchase is expected to facilitate the initial hedging by purchasers of the Notes who desire to hedge their investments in the Notes, as the Company intends to repurchase the entire initial delta of the transaction. This will allow such purchasers of the Notes to establish short positions that generally correspond to commercially reasonable initial hedges of their investments in the Notes. The Concurrent Repurchase will be made pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program announced in March 2024. The Company expects the purchase price in the Concurrent Repurchase to be (i) in the case of ADSs, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024 as adjusted for the ADS-to-share ratio at a pre-determined exchange rate for U.S. dollars and (ii) in the case of Class A ordinary shares, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024.In addition to the Concurrent Repurchase, the Company may also repurchase additional Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs on the open market after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time. The Concurrent Repurchase and future repurchases pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program(s) will be funded by the net proceeds of the Notes Offering and other cash on hand, and, in the aggregate, are generally expected to offset potential dilution to the holders of the Company’s ordinary shares (including in the form of ADSs) upon conversion of the Notes.Other MattersThe repurchase activities by the Company, whether in the Concurrent Repurchase or otherwise pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), could increase, or reduce the magnitude of any decrease in, the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes.The Company expects that potential purchasers of the Notes may employ a convertible arbitrage strategy to hedge their exposure in connection with the Notes. Any such activities by potential purchasers of the Notes following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity date could affect the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes. The effect, if any, of the activities described in this paragraph, including the direction or magnitude, on the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes will depend on a variety of factors, including market conditions, and cannot be ascertained at this time.The Notes, the ADSs deliverable upon conversion of the Notes, if any, and the Class A ordinary shares represented thereby or deliverable upon conversion of Notes in lieu thereof have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or securities laws of any other places. They may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. persons, except to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 144A under the Securities Act and to certain non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act.This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, nor shall there be a sale of the securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.This press release contains information about the pending Notes Offering, and there can be no assurance that the Notes Offering will be completed.About JD.com, Inc.JD.com is a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.Safe Harbor StatementThis announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “confident” and similar statements. JD.com may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in announcements made on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about JD.com’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: JD.com’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; its ability to attract and retain new customers and to increase revenues generated from repeat customers; its expectations regarding demand for and market acceptance of its products and services; trends and competition in China’s e-commerce market; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of the Chinese e-commerce market; laws, regulations and governmental policies relating to the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate; potential changes in laws, regulations and governmental policies or changes in the interpretation and implementation of laws, regulations and governmental policies that could adversely affect the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate, including, among others, initiatives to enhance supervision of companies listed on an overseas exchange and tighten scrutiny over data privacy and data security; risks associated with JD.com’s acquisitions, investments and alliances, including fluctuation in the market value of JD.com’s investment portfolio; natural disasters and geopolitical events; change in tax rates and financial risks; intensity of competition; and general market and economic conditions in China and globally. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in JD.com’s filings with the SEC and the announcements on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. All information provided herein is as of the date of this announcement, and JD.com undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"JD":1,"09618":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3437340877473194","authorId":"3437340877473194","name":"Cjfsky201610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/990f83875eb3fd831df53d5601c8bd7c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3437340877473194","idStr":"3437340877473194"},"content":"为什么这么说？怎么分析","text":"为什么这么说？怎么分析","html":"为什么这么说？怎么分析"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584055381955080,"gmtCreate":1783623161889,"gmtModify":1783623163986,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584055381955080","repostId":"1108356178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108356178","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球快讯第一时间播报","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美股速递","id":"1004306016","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a"},"pubTimestamp":1783616521,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108356178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-10 01:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OpenAI：ChatGPT Works将率先向Pro、Enterprise及Edu用户开放，Plus与Business版本将在未来数日内跟进","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108356178","media":"美股速递","summary":"OpenAI宣布，其ChatGPT Works功能将开始面向专业版、企业版及教育版用户，在网页端与移动端同步推出。而Plus版与商业版用户则将在接下来的几天内陆续获得此功能更新。","content":"<p>OpenAI宣布，其ChatGPT Works功能将开始面向专业版、企业版及教育版用户，在网页端与移动端同步推出。而Plus版与商业版用户则将在接下来的几天内陆续获得此功能更新。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OpenAI：ChatGPT Works将率先向Pro、Enterprise及Edu用户开放，Plus与Business版本将在未来数日内跟进</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpenAI：ChatGPT Works将率先向Pro、Enterprise及Edu用户开放，Plus与Business版本将在未来数日内跟进\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1004306016\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股速递 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-10 01:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OpenAI宣布，其ChatGPT Works功能将开始面向专业版、企业版及教育版用户，在网页端与移动端同步推出。而Plus版与商业版用户则将在接下来的几天内陆续获得此功能更新。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU0859254822.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357627491.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"AH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2047632596.USD":"T.ROWE MULTI-ASSET GLOBAL 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18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元，并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；</p><p>•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；</p><p>•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) 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H2-SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2594625231","content_text":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：•美国市场拖累显著：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年利率贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；•欧洲市场环比回暖：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；•中国市场温和回升：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。��互动时间你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505088268247904,"gmtCreate":1764331417654,"gmtModify":1764331420425,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"他就是用价格战最多的人，说这话有点恶心。","listText":"他就是用价格战最多的人，说这话有点恶心。","text":"他就是用价格战最多的人，说这话有点恶心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505088268247904","repostId":"2586011789","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2586011789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764329918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586011789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-28 19:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美团王兴：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586011789","media":"第一财经","summary":"11月28日晚，在美团第三季度财报电话会上，美团CEO王兴表示，“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场，外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争，我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续。”他表示，美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位，创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到，近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位，美团在实付超过15元的订单有2/3以上的份额，实付超过30元以上的订单有70%以上的份额。（第一财经记者 陆涵之）","content":"<div>\n<p>11月28日晚，在美团第三季度财报电话会上，美团CEO王兴表示，“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场，外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争，我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续。”他表示，美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位，创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到，近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位，美团在实付超过15元的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美团王兴：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美团王兴：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-28 19:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月28日晚，在美团第三季度财报电话会上，美团CEO王兴表示，“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场，外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争，我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续。”他表示，美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位，创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到，近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位，美团在实付超过15元的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202511281939159784bb18&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586011789","content_text":"11月28日晚，在美团第三季度财报电话会上，美团CEO王兴表示，“我们重申在过去两个季度阐明的立场，外卖价格战是低质低价的‘内卷式’竞争，我们坚决反对。半年来的市场结果已经充分证明：外卖价格战没有为行业创造价值，不可持续。”他表示，美团有信心捍卫即时零售的市场地位，创造真正的长期价值。王兴提到，近期美团餐饮外卖订单市占稳步回升。美团继续保持在中高价订单市场GTV的领先地位，美团在实付超过15元的订单有2/3以上的份额，实付超过30元以上的订单有70%以上的份额。（第一财经记者 陆涵之）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":1.5,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"METmain":0.6,"MPNGY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502774035546600,"gmtCreate":1763775643137,"gmtModify":1763775645611,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\"，市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","listText":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\"，市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","text":"跌的时候称为“AI机器人公司\"，市场涨的时侯他死趴趴熊的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502774035546600","repostId":"2585124479","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585124479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763770500,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2585124479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-22 08:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温，特斯拉股价连日下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585124479","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，周五，特斯拉股价收低，盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待，与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯，使股价走势承压。尽管市场担忧升温，特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。他指出，特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域，并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。与此同时，特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价收低，盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待，与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯，使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中，特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌，该股周四跌幅超过2%，周五再度走低超1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d252e4da4a5335c145c1b167cd28082\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施，而部分项目尚未产生正向现金流。在此背景下，特斯拉以其在数据中心、AI芯片以及FSD(完全自动驾驶)软件方面的投入，被投资者视为“AI机器人公司”的代表之一，这也使其股价更受情绪影响。</p><p>尽管市场担忧升温，特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。</p><p>据报道，特斯拉近日完成在内华达州运营机器人出租车的自我认证程序，并获得当地机动车管理局颁发的“运营合规证书”，允许其在公共道路测试无人驾驶车辆，但商业化运营仍需获得内华达州交通管理局批准。</p><p>同一周内，亚利桑那州交通运输厅也确认，特斯拉已完成当地机器人出租车业务所需的全部流程，首期项目将继续配备安全员，模式与特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区的服务类似。目前，美国市场上已有竞争对手如Waymo在部分城市提供无需安全员的L4级自动驾驶服务。</p><p>华尔街对特斯拉的自动驾驶前景保持关注。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFB\">Stifel</a>分析师Stephen Gengaro本周上调特斯拉目标价至508美元，并继续给予“买入”评级。他指出，特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域，并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。</p><p>与此同时，特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。据报道，特斯拉在华盛顿州遭遇新的诉讼，涉及2023年初的一起 Model 3事故。一辆车辆据称在失控加速后撞上电线杆并起火，事故导致一人死亡、一人严重受伤。诉状称，事故发生后救援人员因车辆门把手无法正常操作而难以及时进入车内。这起案件是继威斯康星州另一宗涉及Model S的诉讼之后，近期关于电动车门机构争议的最新案例。相关案件仍在法律程序中。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温，特斯拉股价连日下跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自驾与机器人出租车积极进展难敌市场避险情绪升温，特斯拉股价连日下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-22 08:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五，特斯拉股价收低，盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待，与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯，使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中，特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌，该股周四跌幅超过2%，周五再度走低超1%。近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施，而部分项目尚未产生正向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372401.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585124479","content_text":"周五，特斯拉股价收低，盘中一度上涨的走势未能延续。市场对机器人出租车业务的期待，与近期对AI投资泡沫的担忧形成拉锯，使股价走势承压。在此前一天的科技股抛售中，特斯拉与其他“七巨头”均出现明显下跌，该股周四跌幅超过2%，周五再度走低超1%。近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的企业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施，而部分项目尚未产生正向现金流。在此背景下，特斯拉以其在数据中心、AI芯片以及FSD(完全自动驾驶)软件方面的投入，被投资者视为“AI机器人公司”的代表之一，这也使其股价更受情绪影响。尽管市场担忧升温，特斯拉在自动驾驶和机器人出租车布局方面仍取得积极进展。据报道，特斯拉近日完成在内华达州运营机器人出租车的自我认证程序，并获得当地机动车管理局颁发的“运营合规证书”，允许其在公共道路测试无人驾驶车辆，但商业化运营仍需获得内华达州交通管理局批准。同一周内，亚利桑那州交通运输厅也确认，特斯拉已完成当地机器人出租车业务所需的全部流程，首期项目将继续配备安全员，模式与特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区的服务类似。目前，美国市场上已有竞争对手如Waymo在部分城市提供无需安全员的L4级自动驾驶服务。华尔街对特斯拉的自动驾驶前景保持关注。Stifel分析师Stephen Gengaro本周上调特斯拉目标价至508美元，并继续给予“买入”评级。他指出，特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8至10个大都市区域，并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。与此同时，特斯拉在美部分地区面临产品安全诉讼有新情况。据报道，特斯拉在华盛顿州遭遇新的诉讼，涉及2023年初的一起 Model 3事故。一辆车辆据称在失控加速后撞上电线杆并起火，事故导致一人死亡、一人严重受伤。诉状称，事故发生后救援人员因车辆门把手无法正常操作而难以及时进入车内。这起案件是继威斯康星州另一宗涉及Model S的诉讼之后，近期关于电动车门机构争议的最新案例。相关案件仍在法律程序中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502247317508304,"gmtCreate":1763638056890,"gmtModify":1763638059370,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"SpaceX换字节，鬼佬换不[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"SpaceX换字节，鬼佬换不[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"SpaceX换字节，鬼佬换不[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502247317508304","repostId":"2584513860","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2584513860","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1763635686,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584513860?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-20 18:48","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"字节跳动仍受资本追捧，估值升至4800亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584513860","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今日资本近日通过股权拍卖，以约4800亿美元估值从字节跳动早期投资方中银集团投资有限公司收购部分股权，成交金额达3亿美元，成为该公司年内最大规模的二级市场交易之一。知情人士称，竞价过程激烈，反映出资本市场对字节跳动在AI技术布局与全球业务拓展方面的持续看好。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本<strong>，在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份，资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。</strong></p>\n<p>11月20日，据媒体报道，今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构，从字节跳动早期投资方<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02388\">中银</a>集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等多家互联网巨头。</p>\n<p>据媒体援引知情人士，该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值，定价约2亿美元。<strong>随着七家机构参与竞价，最终成交价推高至约3亿美元，对应估值接近5000亿美元。</strong>知情人士表示，这笔交易是今年字节跳动最大的二级市场交易之一。</p>\n<p>有分析人士表示，此次拍卖中如此激烈的竞价，很可能源于本次股份出售的稀缺性，以及投资者对字节跳动AI技术与全球业务增长前景的认可。</p>\n<h2>估值大幅上涨</h2>\n<p>根据媒体报道，<strong>字节跳动估值在近期交易中呈现显著上升趋势。</strong>知情人士指出，该公司去年9月推出的员工股票回购计划对应估值约为3300亿美元。他们还补充说，该公司此后一直在筹备面向机构股东的年度股票回购计划。</p>\n<p>此前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>和富达投资在内的多家主要投资者，已将其持有的字节跳动股份估值上调至超过4000亿美元。</p>\n<p>据CB Insights数据显示，若以当前市场估值计算，字节跳动已超越SpaceX（估值约4000亿美元），成为全球估值排名第二的初创企业，仅次于估值达5000亿美元的OpenAI。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>字节跳动仍受资本追捧，估值升至4800亿美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n字节跳动仍受资本追捧，估值升至4800亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-20 18:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本<strong>，在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份，资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。</strong></p>\n<p>11月20日，据媒体报道，今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构，从字节跳动早期投资方<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02388\">中银</a>集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等多家互联网巨头。</p>\n<p>据媒体援引知情人士，该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值，定价约2亿美元。<strong>随着七家机构参与竞价，最终成交价推高至约3亿美元，对应估值接近5000亿美元。</strong>知情人士表示，这笔交易是今年字节跳动最大的二级市场交易之一。</p>\n<p>有分析人士表示，此次拍卖中如此激烈的竞价，很可能源于本次股份出售的稀缺性，以及投资者对字节跳动AI技术与全球业务增长前景的认可。</p>\n<h2>估值大幅上涨</h2>\n<p>根据媒体报道，<strong>字节跳动估值在近期交易中呈现显著上升趋势。</strong>知情人士指出，该公司去年9月推出的员工股票回购计划对应估值约为3300亿美元。他们还补充说，该公司此后一直在筹备面向机构股东的年度股票回购计划。</p>\n<p>此前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>和富达投资在内的多家主要投资者，已将其持有的字节跳动股份估值上调至超过4000亿美元。</p>\n<p>据CB Insights数据显示，若以当前市场估值计算，字节跳动已超越SpaceX（估值约4000亿美元），成为全球估值排名第二的初创企业，仅次于估值达5000亿美元的OpenAI。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2958907307044929d330311c413c1a4f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759807","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2584513860","content_text":"“风投女王”徐新创立的风投机构今日资本，在股权拍卖中以4800亿美元估值收购字节跳动部分股份，资本市场对TikTok母公司仍持续看好。\n11月20日，据媒体报道，今日资本在竞拍中击败多家机构，从字节跳动早期投资方中银集团投资有限公司手中收购相应股权。今日资本曾投资美团、京东等多家互联网巨头。\n据媒体援引知情人士，该笔交易最初以3600亿美元估值，定价约2亿美元。随着七家机构参与竞价，最终成交价推高至约3亿美元，对应估值接近5000亿美元。知情人士表示，这笔交易是今年字节跳动最大的二级市场交易之一。\n有分析人士表示，此次拍卖中如此激烈的竞价，很可能源于本次股份出售的稀缺性，以及投资者对字节跳动AI技术与全球业务增长前景的认可。\n估值大幅上涨\n根据媒体报道，字节跳动估值在近期交易中呈现显著上升趋势。知情人士指出，该公司去年9月推出的员工股票回购计划对应估值约为3300亿美元。他们还补充说，该公司此后一直在筹备面向机构股东的年度股票回购计划。\n此前，包括软银集团和富达投资在内的多家主要投资者，已将其持有的字节跳动股份估值上调至超过4000亿美元。\n据CB Insights数据显示，若以当前市场估值计算，字节跳动已超越SpaceX（估值约4000亿美元），成为全球估值排名第二的初创企业，仅次于估值达5000亿美元的OpenAI。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500789181395032,"gmtCreate":1763303291387,"gmtModify":1763344103645,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519254194891755","idStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"搞了40年这个鸟样，会讲不会做","listText":"搞了40年这个鸟样，会讲不会做","text":"搞了40年这个鸟样，会讲不会做","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500789181395032","repostId":"2583663018","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2583663018","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763270531,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2583663018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-16 13:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta！我搞了40年AI，大模型是死路","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2583663018","media":"新智元","summary":"新智元报道编辑：KingHZ图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳！今年夏天，年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官，让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。媒体不断有消息放出，Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。现在，LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”，终于要离职了。LeCun离开Meta，或为了世界模型此前报道，他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资，组建专注世界模型的团队。","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/35B2F44437EC56FA89DE0FA77763972EDF47BCBA_size47_w1080_h459.jpg\"/></p><p><strong>新智元报道</strong></p><p>编辑：KingHZ</p><p><strong>【新智元导读】图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳！LLM邪路一条，“世界模型才是”未来。</strong></p><p>Meta风向已变，Yann LeCun承认马上离职！</p><p>据多家权威媒体报道，Meta首席AI科学家、负责“基础AI研究”（FAIR）的Yann LeCun，预计将很快离职。</p><p>这位65岁的AI界元老，在Meta这家全球最大的科技公司之一担任核心大脑，可以说拥有无限的资源。</p><p>Meta可谓挥金如土。它用天价薪酬疯狂从对手那里挖角顶尖AI专家。</p><p>在7月，扎克伯格甚至宣称“超级智能已近在眼前”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/1987A151D37CD19E73C0A7E1EC6DCEB0F40447E1_size181_w1080_h564.png\"/></p><p>那么，LeCun为何要离开Meta呢？只是因为Meta的人事动荡吗？背后有何隐情？</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/DBAE50AA0E166C71D164747F2EE8B1CC86E81C35_size119_w1080_h475.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>小扎转向，LeCun失势？</strong></p><p>今年夏天，年仅28岁的Alexandr Wang成为Meta的首席AI官，让这位初出茅庐的大语言模型狂热者成了LeCun的上司。</p><p>此外，Meta今年还任命了另一位相对年轻的首席科学家赵晟佳（Shengjia Zhao），职位也在LeCun之上。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/77C4A7773204D72C23595A5C1980FB461C16B7B5_size359_w1080_h584.png\"/></p><p>在官方公告中，Meta盛赞了赵晟佳在scaling方面带来的“突破”。而LeCun恰恰对scaling失去了信心。</p><p>他还告诫博士生：“不要做LLM”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/11EC829A0F617926A8887B8F1D2BC9D62EFA4CA7_size176_w1080_h458.png\"/></p><p>如果你好奇为什么LeCun和Zhao都是首席科学家，那是因为Meta的AI部门组织架构相当奇特，分成了多个独立的团队。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/7707187829EA9D520B8EA4DB7009BF4EF25B70CE_size185_w1080_h752.png\"/></p><p>媒体不断有消息放出，Meta要对其AI组织结构动刀。</p><p>上个月，Meta超级AI实验室裁掉了数百人，包括10年老将田渊栋。据称，这是为了理顺这种混乱的局面。</p><p>这已经是Meta在半年之内第四次调整AI业务了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/E42B36BD65F4E9A36DBF8AF3228B09C81D4BB33D_size202_w1080_h521.png\"/></p><p>而那支曾由LeCun领导、风头一时无两的FAIR，如今早已<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301100\">风光</a>不再。据现任与前员工透露，这个部门经历了裁员、预算缩水，内部影响力也明显下降。</p><p>曾几何时，FAIR是Meta内部思想最活跃的“象牙塔”，研究人员可以探讨各种AI未来路径，甚至可以做些“未必能成”的实验，完全不用担心产品化问题。</p><p>而现在，Meta新组建的AI研究部门招来一大批高薪新兵，由Wang主导，目标明确：要快、要落地、要产品化。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>在AI上，他领先了40年</strong></p><p>LeCun一向走在时代前沿——</p><p>早在“机器学习”还不被主流认可时，他就开始研究这个方向。</p><p>他曾在多伦多的Geoffrey Hinton实验室工作，那时Hinton还没成为AI传奇人物。</p><p>之后，他的职业生涯大多时间都在新泽西州的贝尔实验室度过，这家机构因诞生众多创新发明而闻名。</p><p>1947年，贝尔实验室发明晶体管</p><p>“最让我兴奋的事情，就是和比我聪明的人共事，因为这会放大你的能力。”LeCun在2023年杂志采访时说道。</p><p>在贝尔实验室，LeCun曾参与开发手写识别技术，这项技术后来被广泛应用于银行自动读取支票。他还参与了一个项目，致力于将纸质文档数字化并通过互联网分发。</p><p>LeCun曾表示，自己从小就对物理感兴趣，在贝尔实验室期间也主要和物理学家合作，看了不少物理教材。</p><p>我学到了很多表面上与AI或计算机科学无关的东西（我本科是电气工程，计算机方面的正规训练其实很少）。</p><p>2003年，LeCun开始在纽约大学教授计算机科学，后来成为该校数据科学中心的创始主任。</p><p>2013年，扎克伯格亲自邀请他加入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>（当时还未更名为Meta），组建全新的AI实验室。</p><p>他领导这个团队四年，2018年卸任，转为公司首席AI科学家，以“个人研究员”身份继续探索技术前沿。</p><p>2018年，他与Geoffrey Hinton和Yoshua Bengio共同获得图灵奖——计算机界的最高荣誉，以表彰三人在神经网络方面的奠基性工作。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/09D6644675C1986FC32304EA2ECFADE129E6A8A3_size83_w1080_h608.jpg\"/></p><p>自那之后，LeCun就逐渐转为“象征性人物”角色。他没有参与Meta首个开源大语言模型Llama的研发，也早就不再参与这类项目的日常工作。</p><p>据与他共事的人透露，LeCun现在主要在做自己的研究项目，也经常出席各种技术会议，发表对AI技术的看法。</p><p>面对媒体的报道，Yann LeCun只是指出了报道中的“小错误”，并没有否认即将离职的消息。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/FAA6081315B65652272BA9584C773B1C83E14F6E_size429_w1080_h942.png\"/></p><p>他知道自己在包括Meta在内的整个硅谷技术圈内，备受冷落。上个月在MIT的一次研讨会上，65岁的LeCun直言：</p><p>这些年，我在硅谷、包括Meta的很多角落都不太受欢迎，因为我一直在说，3到5年内，世界模型将成为主流AI架构，没人再会愿意用现在这种LLM。</p><p>但他坚信自己对AI未来的判断。他的老朋友Léon Bottou曾告诉媒体，LeCun“倔强得可爱”——他会听别人意见，但更有自己坚守的信念。</p><p>现在，LeCun在Meta好像“忍无可忍”，终于要离职了。</p><p>实际上，他早已多次暗示答案。</p><p>在通往通用人工智能的道路上，LeCun近来以其对大语言模型的尖锐批评而闻名。</p><p>他认为，无论科技巨头如何扩大其规模，我们目前所理解的大语言模型都已是“强弩之末”，是一条“岔路、干扰，一条死胡同”。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/2EC3C9ACE52BE9259EFAD471D6465B9149B16EA8_size748_w1080_h608.png\"/></p><p>他投身AI研究已有40年，对AI的判断屡屡应验。如今，他认为大多数人都错了。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/B448D064609E4F6D631150F6AAEECE9F083E5CFC_size254_w1080_h423.png\"/></p><p>他为现代AI奠定了诸多基础。而现在他坚信，领域内的大多数人都被大语言模型的“海妖之歌”引入了歧途。</p><p>这为他的离职提供了更多可能的解释。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/ECE39149CFF0F8E9AC3F1173BC5554567DC41A9F_size2_w112_h59.png\"/></p><p><strong>LeCun离开Meta，或为了世界模型</strong></p><p>此前报道，他正在与业内同行商议创办公司、寻找投资，组建专注世界模型的团队。</p><p><strong>所谓“世界模型”，类似小动物或婴儿那样，通过视觉等感知数据主动学习世界规律；而LLM只是依赖海量文本做预测的模型。</strong></p><p>LeCun本人也从不避讳解释为何他认为“世界模型”才是AI的答案。</p><p>Meta的Llama、OpenAI的GPT、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的Bard这些模型，都是靠<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>训练出来的。LeCun估算，如果让人去读完它们训练所需的所有文本，大概得花10万年。</p><p><strong>但人类学习的主要方式，并不是读文本。</strong></p><p>我们从与世界的互动中，获取的信息要多得多。LeCun估计，一个普通的四岁小孩接触过的数据量，是目前最大的LLM的50倍。</p><p>大部分人类知识，其实不是语言。</p><p>所以这些系统永远不可能达到人类水平的智能——除非你彻底改掉它们的架构。</p><p>而他自己，早就准备好了替代方案。他称之为“目标驱动的AI”（objective-driven AI）。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/273AF6B25BF7A5657B07F12D49EEBC8D97B77AC1_size362_w1080_h609.png\"/></p><p>目标驱动的AI系统的构建宗旨，是完成人类设定的特定目标。</p><p>与仅靠纯文本数据驱动不同，它们通过传感器和视频数据训练来认知物理世界。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/33B51034C7EE219E640017371643222B1ED8069F_size92_w612_h590.jpg\"/></p><p>由此构建出的“世界模型”能呈现行动带来的影响，所有潜在变化都会实时更新至系统记忆。</p><p><strong><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/EA67F8318234F4BA42DD687A2695DE1D0AA7B3C8_size3_w292_h73.png\"/></strong></p><p><strong>他为何对世界模型如此沉迷？</strong></p><p>在年初的“巴黎AI峰会”上，Yann LeCun明确指出，他是可穿戴设备的坚定信徒。</p><p>他认为，未来，我们需要与可穿戴设备互动，就像与人交流一样，而大语言模型根本不像人类那样理解世界。</p><p>对于大语言模型，我们甚至无法复制猫或老鼠的智能，更不用说狗了。</p><p>这些动物能完成惊人的壮举，它们理解物理世界。任何一只家猫都能规划出极其复杂的行动，<strong>因为它们拥有关于世界的因果模型</strong>。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/60B1A2297A4890E473BD69CE9D9C9045380C1A21_size347_w1080_h508.png\"/></p><p>为了说明这一点，LeCun设计了一个<strong>思想实验</strong>：“想象一个立方体悬浮在你面前的空中。好，现在让这个立方体绕着垂直轴旋转90度。它会是什么样子？”</p><p>他认为任何人类都能轻松完成，而大语言模型却无能为力：</p><p>“对人来说，在脑海中构建一个旋转立方体的心理模型，非常容易。”</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/99ACBB5B2E39B6F9C017055D1E9CD91BCA531AE5_size452_w1080_h724.png\"/></p><p>当然，大语言模型可以毫不费力地写一首关于悬浮旋转立方体的打油诗，<strong>但它无法真正帮助你与这个立方体互动。</strong></p><p><strong>LeCun断言，这是因为文本数据与处理非文本世界所获得的数据之间存在本质差异。</strong></p><p>他指出，尽管大语言模型训练所用的文本量需要一个人花45万年才能读完，但一个四岁的孩子在醒着的16000小时里，通过眼睛看、用手触摸，已经处理了高达1.4x10^14字节的关于世界的感觉数据——</p><p>他认为这比大语言模型处理的数据还要多。</p><p>顺便一提，这些只是LeCun在演讲中给出的估算，他在其他场合也给过不同的数字。但这些数字指向的核心观点是：<strong>大语言模型存在着局限，而LeCun相信世界模型能够克服这些局限。</strong></p><p><strong><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/EA67F8318234F4BA42DD687A2695DE1D0AA7B3C8_size3_w292_h73.png\"/></strong></p><p><strong>他又将如何构建世界模型？</strong></p><p>在Meta时，LeCun其实已经开始研究世界模型——他还拍了一个介绍视频，开头就让你想象一个旋转的立方体。</p><p>在AI行动峰会的演讲中，他<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>中的模型包含一个对“当前世界状态的估计”，以某种抽象形式呈现与当前情境相关的一切。它不再是按顺序预测token，而是“预测在你采取一系列行动后，世界将达到的最终状态”。</p><p>他表示，世界模型将使未来的计算机科学家能够构建出“可以规划行动——可能是分层级的——以实现某个目标的系统，以及能够进行推理的系统。”</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2025_47/91E70EFF149E4F3F202C2A471EF7B8FD7BA72C5E_size592_w1080_h611.png\"/></p><p>LeCun还坚称，这类系统将拥有更强大的安全特性，因为控制它们的方式是内置的，而不是像现在这样，面对一个神秘莫测、只会输出文本的黑箱，只能通过微调来加以修正。</p><p>LeCun所说的经典AI——例如搜索引擎中使用的软件——所有问题都可以归结为优化问题。</p><p>他提出，他的世界模型将审视当前的世界状态，并通过寻找高效的解决方案，来寻求与某个不同状态的兼容性。</p><p>LeCun在演讲中解释道：“你需要一个能量函数来衡量不兼容性，给定一个x，找到一个对于该x能量较低的y”。</p><p>如果说，我们从LeCun的公开言论中拼凑出的“真相”很粗糙、有些模糊，甚至完全错误，那也完全正常。</p><p>LeCun似乎正在构想一个“登月计划”——</p><p>他希望推动AI领域迎来又一次类似ChatGPT那样的、诞生惊人能力的爆发式发展。</p><p>但这可能需要耗费数年——甚至永远无法实现——更不用说数十亿美元的投资了，才可能看到任何真正了不起的成果。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta！我搞了40年AI，大模型是死路</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n图灵奖得主LeCun最后警告Meta！我搞了40年AI，大模型是死路\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-16 13:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oKJxCr1I89><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新智元报道编辑：KingHZ【新智元导读】图灵奖得主LeCun与Meta分道扬镳！LLM邪路一条，“世界模型才是”未来。Meta风向已变，Yann LeCun承认马上离职！据多家权威媒体报道，Meta首席AI科学家、负责“基础AI研究”（FAIR）的Yann LeCun，预计将很快离职。这位65岁的AI界元老，在Meta这家全球最大的科技公司之一担任核心大脑，可以说拥有无限的资源。Meta可谓...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oKJxCr1I89\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","LU2764263039.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0784383803.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A\" (USD) INC A","LU1697837992.HKD":"BGF DYNAMIC HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2764262908.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 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