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DeepValueMaking

DeepValueMaking

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DeepValueMaking

09-16

如果结果是不加息，市场会发生什么？

今晚，"鸽派加息"？

DeepValueMaking

09-04

既然敢推出就不怕审查

特斯拉(TSLA.US)自动驾驶出租车Cybercab亮相奥斯汀无方向盘设计引发监管审查

DeepValueMaking

08-20

‌$宇树科技-W(688836)$ ‌王兴兴不笑是有道理的

DeepValueMaking

08-20

到家里跳舞吗？

宇树科技CEO：期望数年内让机器人进入千家万户，完成80%家务

DeepValueMaking

08-20

‌$宇树科技-W(688836)$ ‌今天散户开始抛了，量太大，机构也接不住。

DeepValueMaking

08-19

‌$宇树科技(688836)$ ‌熄火了

DeepValueMaking

08-18

‌$蜜雪集团(02097)$ ‌好久没有关注了，今天回来一看，现在居然跌成这样了。看来是被弃了，毕竟奶茶能讲出多少故事。

DeepValueMaking

08-18

‌$MINIMAX-W(00100)$ ‌财报前，应该能涨一波

DeepValueMaking

08-18

‌财报前，应该能涨一波

DeepValueMaking

08-10

‌$MINIMAX-W(00100)$ ‌感觉今天要开始跌了。

DeepValueMaking

07-28

‌$IBM(IBM)$ ‌看来止跌了

DeepValueMaking

07-24

‌$MINIMAX-W(00100)$ ‌马上触及165发行价了

DeepValueMaking

07-22

‌$MINIMAX-W(00100)$ ‌昨天是拉高出货，今天开始继续抛售

DeepValueMaking

07-20

木头姐这次又超前了

美股异动 | SpaceX(SPCX.US)跌逾2% 木头姐逆势大手笔加仓

DeepValueMaking

07-17

‌$SpaceX(SPCX)$ ‌赌他第十四次发射成功

DeepValueMaking

07-14

‌$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ ‌看来今天是要破200的走势

DeepValueMaking

07-13

‌$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ ‌基本零成本的解禁股给钱就卖

DeepValueMaking

07-09

‌$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ ‌拉高出货，又套了不少人

DeepValueMaking

07-08

‌$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ ‌又套了一批

DeepValueMaking

07-08

‌$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ ‌今天破300

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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11:53","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"今晚，\"鸽派加息\"？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2667867435","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储今夜加息几成定局，但关键是“加完说什么”。花旗定调此次为“微调”，暗示未来无必然加息，但警告主席沃什若无明确前瞻指引，将引发市场剧烈波动；高盛则直言此次加息缺乏充分经济基础，通胀仅为一次性因素，预计将是一场“无信号加息”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街正屏息等待周三美联储的利率决议。花旗与高盛罕见地在核心判断上高度趋同：此次加息几成定局，但这将是一次&#34;鸽派加息&#34;——加息本身不是重点，重点是加息之后美联储说了什么，或者，没说什么。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，花旗在9月15日的最新研报指出，基准预测显示，<strong>美联储将把此次加息定义为一次“微调（calibration）”，并暗示未来没有进一步加息的必然性</strong>。高盛则在9月13日的研报中指出，<strong>今晚将是一次“无信号加息”</strong>，并明确表示，不认为此次加息有充分经济基础，通胀超出2%目标的部分可全部归因于一次性因素，经济并未过热。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗与高盛均预计，<strong>中位数点阵图将显示2026年仅剩一次额外加息，降息将于2027年恢复。核心PCE预测因方法论修订料将较6月数据向下修正，为停止加息提供数据背书。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>尽管基准情形偏鸽，但沃什的新闻发布会将是市场最大的悬念。</strong>花旗认为，若美联储主席沃什拒绝提供明确前瞻指引、仅强调&#34;还有工作要做&#34;，市场可能重新定价10月和12月连续加息，引发资产价格剧烈波动。高盛认为，沃什需要在发布会上强调委员会将“仔细评估”即将到来的数据，以暗示等待更多信息，从而<strong>引导市场放弃对10月加息的过度自信。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，今晚的关键不是&#34;加不加&#34;，而是&#34;加完之后说什么&#34;。<strong>沃什的每一句话，都将被市场用放大镜审视。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鸽派基准情形：被动加息与“微调”定调</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前的市场定价已逼迫美联储做出选择。高盛认为，8月CPI数据公布后，市场对加息的定价概率已逼近90%，美联储为了避免按兵不动引发的市场剧烈反应，将被迫在此次会议上加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但这将是一次彻头彻尾的鸽派行动。</strong>花旗的基准预测显示，伴随加息而来的前瞻指引将不再指向进一步的政策利率上升。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储主席沃什大概率会把政策利率的上升轻描淡写地称为一次“轻微调整（slight adjustment）”或“微调（calibration）”，并向市场暗示，如果通胀显示出向目标回落的迹象，可能就不需要进一步加息了。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样预期，美联储在声明中只会做出最低限度的必要修改，避免提供关于未来路径的前瞻指引，即<strong>呈现一次“无信号加息”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，高盛预计美联储理事沃勒（Waller）将投下反对票。原因在于，过去三个月核心PCE通胀的年化速率（含预期的方法论修订影响）已降至约2.5%，低于沃勒此前在公开场合设定的2.8%“维持不动”门槛。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛：不认为此次加息有充分经济基础</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与花旗的策略分析视角不同，高盛经济研究团队从基本面出发，明确表示不认为此次上调联邦基金利率有充分的经济理由。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛的核心论点是：<strong>通胀超出2%目标的全部幅度，均可归因于影响将会消退的一次性因素，包括关税效应、能源/伊朗冲突影响、软件及配件价格效应以及投资组合管理效应等。</strong>高盛认为，核心PCE通胀在6月至8月期间改善至年化约2.5%的速率（含预期方法论修订），正是这些一次性冲击效果消退的早期迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在通胀广度问题上，高盛同样持异议。尽管近期有更多品类价格以3%以上的年化速率上涨，但高盛指出，一旦剔除关税效应，通胀的广度与历史上2%通胀时期的水平基本相当——而关税冲击大概率已基本落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，高盛的“瓶颈追踪指标（Bottlenecks Tracker）”显示，行业层面的产能约束如今甚至比疫情前还略少，且主要集中在与AI热潮密切相关的少数行业。经济并未过热——而经济过热，恰恰是通常情况下加息的核心理由。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">宏观证据也表明，有限幅度的加息不太可能有效抵消供给冲击带来的更大通胀效应。这意味着，无论美联储加息与否，其主要政策逻辑仍是等待过去冲击的影响随时间自然消散。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正因为此，<strong>高盛认为部分FOMC委员与其通胀判断高度一致，FOMC整体上不愿在本次会议上发出任何进一步加息的信号。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SEP经济预测：点阵图与核心PCE下调构成鸽派支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">经济预测摘要（SEP）的多个组成部分将共同强化这一鸽派印象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗指出，<strong>中位数点阵图将显示今年仅有一次额外加息，降息将在2027年恢复。</strong>这一路径符合美联储当前的内部逻辑：4%左右的政策利率已属于“略微限制性”，随着通胀回归目标，这种限制性理应被逐步解除。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f77313ed296db8877b16ccbad6d49eb0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"694\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛对点阵图分布的判断同样具体而精准：预计将以10票对8票的微弱多数显示2026年仅加息一次（其中沃勒及可能的其他委员票数为零次加息）。高盛给出这一判断的理由是：<strong>部分委员对本次加息本身持矛盾态度，部分委员则不希望进一步推高市场对额外加息的预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但高盛也明确指出尾部风险：若更多委员将本周加息视为应对油价上涨和AI需求的正常反应、并将其视为一轮连续加息的开端，则出现多数票支持两次加息的风险不可忽视。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在通胀预测方面，两家机构均预计核心PCE通胀预测将因方法论修订而向下修正。高盛预计9月SEP中，2026年核心PCE通胀中位预测将从6月的3.3%小幅下调至3.2%，这为停止加息提供了数据支撑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什的新闻发布会：市场最大的悬念</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>尽管基准情形偏鸽，花旗警告称，决定整体基调最重要也最难预测的变量，是主席沃什究竟如何谈论此次加息。</strong>沃什个人风格倾向于给出较少的前瞻指引，这给市场留下了定价更鹰派政策的巨大空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗认为，<strong>如果沃什仅仅强调“还有工作要做（more work to do）”而不提供近期利率指引，这可能被市场视为一个危险信号。</strong>在这种鹰派风险情形下，市场可能预期10月和12月的FOMC会议均将加息，甚至将进一步加息的风险定价延伸至2027年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛对这一场景的判断则更为具体：<strong>FOMC可能希望引导市场降低对10月加息的定价信心（目前已接近50%），但不会在声明中明说。</strong>相反，沃什可能在新闻发布会上表示，在决定进一步行动之前，FOMC将“仔细评估（carefully assess）”即将公布的数据，或希望看到多份（plural）即将发布的通胀报告，或观察潜在通胀趋势如何演变——上述任何表述，<strong>都将暗示委员会希望多收集一段时间的数据再行动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛还补充，<strong>由于许多投资者已将11月初的中期选举视为10月加息的政治障碍，阻止市场将10月加息设为&#34;默认基线&#34;并非难事。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛设置了三种情景：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基准情形（概率50%）：仅加息一次（本次），2027年9月和12月各降息一次，终端利率为3.25%-3.5%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多次加息情形（概率35%）：最终加息两至三次，终端利率更高；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">衰退情形（概率15%）：经济下行，货币政策转向。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>即便充分考虑多次加息情形的尾部风险，高盛的概率加权联邦基金利率预测，仍远比当前市场定价更为鸽派。</strong>高盛同时将终端利率预测从此前的3%-3.25%上调至3.25%-3.5%，并<strong>将2027年首次降息时间从6月推迟至9月。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而花旗特别指出，近期WTI原油和美国平均汽油价格的剧烈波动，<strong>为通胀前景和美联储政策路径增添了额外的复杂性。</strong>若能源价格持续偏高，可能动摇美联储对&#34;通胀已走向目标&#34;的判断，进而强化鹰派委员的立场。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/255ee3c27261513bbdcf3d30cb4f9348\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"686\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今晚，\"鸽派加息\"？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今晚，\"鸽派加息\"？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-16 11:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街正屏息等待周三美联储的利率决议。花旗与高盛罕见地在核心判断上高度趋同：此次加息几成定局，但这将是一次&#34;鸽派加息&#34;——加息本身不是重点，重点是加息之后美联储说了什么，或者，没说什么。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，花旗在9月15日的最新研报指出，基准预测显示，<strong>美联储将把此次加息定义为一次“微调（calibration）”，并暗示未来没有进一步加息的必然性</strong>。高盛则在9月13日的研报中指出，<strong>今晚将是一次“无信号加息”</strong>，并明确表示，不认为此次加息有充分经济基础，通胀超出2%目标的部分可全部归因于一次性因素，经济并未过热。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗与高盛均预计，<strong>中位数点阵图将显示2026年仅剩一次额外加息，降息将于2027年恢复。核心PCE预测因方法论修订料将较6月数据向下修正，为停止加息提供数据背书。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>尽管基准情形偏鸽，但沃什的新闻发布会将是市场最大的悬念。</strong>花旗认为，若美联储主席沃什拒绝提供明确前瞻指引、仅强调&#34;还有工作要做&#34;，市场可能重新定价10月和12月连续加息，引发资产价格剧烈波动。高盛认为，沃什需要在发布会上强调委员会将“仔细评估”即将到来的数据，以暗示等待更多信息，从而<strong>引导市场放弃对10月加息的过度自信。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士认为，今晚的关键不是&#34;加不加&#34;，而是&#34;加完之后说什么&#34;。<strong>沃什的每一句话，都将被市场用放大镜审视。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鸽派基准情形：被动加息与“微调”定调</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前的市场定价已逼迫美联储做出选择。高盛认为，8月CPI数据公布后，市场对加息的定价概率已逼近90%，美联储为了避免按兵不动引发的市场剧烈反应，将被迫在此次会议上加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但这将是一次彻头彻尾的鸽派行动。</strong>花旗的基准预测显示，伴随加息而来的前瞻指引将不再指向进一步的政策利率上升。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储主席沃什大概率会把政策利率的上升轻描淡写地称为一次“轻微调整（slight adjustment）”或“微调（calibration）”，并向市场暗示，如果通胀显示出向目标回落的迹象，可能就不需要进一步加息了。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛同样预期，美联储在声明中只会做出最低限度的必要修改，避免提供关于未来路径的前瞻指引，即<strong>呈现一次“无信号加息”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，高盛预计美联储理事沃勒（Waller）将投下反对票。原因在于，过去三个月核心PCE通胀的年化速率（含预期的方法论修订影响）已降至约2.5%，低于沃勒此前在公开场合设定的2.8%“维持不动”门槛。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛：不认为此次加息有充分经济基础</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与花旗的策略分析视角不同，高盛经济研究团队从基本面出发，明确表示不认为此次上调联邦基金利率有充分的经济理由。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛的核心论点是：<strong>通胀超出2%目标的全部幅度，均可归因于影响将会消退的一次性因素，包括关税效应、能源/伊朗冲突影响、软件及配件价格效应以及投资组合管理效应等。</strong>高盛认为，核心PCE通胀在6月至8月期间改善至年化约2.5%的速率（含预期方法论修订），正是这些一次性冲击效果消退的早期迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在通胀广度问题上，高盛同样持异议。尽管近期有更多品类价格以3%以上的年化速率上涨，但高盛指出，一旦剔除关税效应，通胀的广度与历史上2%通胀时期的水平基本相当——而关税冲击大概率已基本落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，高盛的“瓶颈追踪指标（Bottlenecks Tracker）”显示，行业层面的产能约束如今甚至比疫情前还略少，且主要集中在与AI热潮密切相关的少数行业。经济并未过热——而经济过热，恰恰是通常情况下加息的核心理由。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">宏观证据也表明，有限幅度的加息不太可能有效抵消供给冲击带来的更大通胀效应。这意味着，无论美联储加息与否，其主要政策逻辑仍是等待过去冲击的影响随时间自然消散。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正因为此，<strong>高盛认为部分FOMC委员与其通胀判断高度一致，FOMC整体上不愿在本次会议上发出任何进一步加息的信号。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SEP经济预测：点阵图与核心PCE下调构成鸽派支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">经济预测摘要（SEP）的多个组成部分将共同强化这一鸽派印象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗指出，<strong>中位数点阵图将显示今年仅有一次额外加息，降息将在2027年恢复。</strong>这一路径符合美联储当前的内部逻辑：4%左右的政策利率已属于“略微限制性”，随着通胀回归目标，这种限制性理应被逐步解除。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f77313ed296db8877b16ccbad6d49eb0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"694\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛对点阵图分布的判断同样具体而精准：预计将以10票对8票的微弱多数显示2026年仅加息一次（其中沃勒及可能的其他委员票数为零次加息）。高盛给出这一判断的理由是：<strong>部分委员对本次加息本身持矛盾态度，部分委员则不希望进一步推高市场对额外加息的预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但高盛也明确指出尾部风险：若更多委员将本周加息视为应对油价上涨和AI需求的正常反应、并将其视为一轮连续加息的开端，则出现多数票支持两次加息的风险不可忽视。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在通胀预测方面，两家机构均预计核心PCE通胀预测将因方法论修订而向下修正。高盛预计9月SEP中，2026年核心PCE通胀中位预测将从6月的3.3%小幅下调至3.2%，这为停止加息提供了数据支撑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什的新闻发布会：市场最大的悬念</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>尽管基准情形偏鸽，花旗警告称，决定整体基调最重要也最难预测的变量，是主席沃什究竟如何谈论此次加息。</strong>沃什个人风格倾向于给出较少的前瞻指引，这给市场留下了定价更鹰派政策的巨大空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗认为，<strong>如果沃什仅仅强调“还有工作要做（more work to do）”而不提供近期利率指引，这可能被市场视为一个危险信号。</strong>在这种鹰派风险情形下，市场可能预期10月和12月的FOMC会议均将加息，甚至将进一步加息的风险定价延伸至2027年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛对这一场景的判断则更为具体：<strong>FOMC可能希望引导市场降低对10月加息的定价信心（目前已接近50%），但不会在声明中明说。</strong>相反，沃什可能在新闻发布会上表示，在决定进一步行动之前，FOMC将“仔细评估（carefully assess）”即将公布的数据，或希望看到多份（plural）即将发布的通胀报告，或观察潜在通胀趋势如何演变——上述任何表述，<strong>都将暗示委员会希望多收集一段时间的数据再行动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛还补充，<strong>由于许多投资者已将11月初的中期选举视为10月加息的政治障碍，阻止市场将10月加息设为&#34;默认基线&#34;并非难事。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛设置了三种情景：</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基准情形（概率50%）：仅加息一次（本次），2027年9月和12月各降息一次，终端利率为3.25%-3.5%；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多次加息情形（概率35%）：最终加息两至三次，终端利率更高；</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">衰退情形（概率15%）：经济下行，货币政策转向。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>即便充分考虑多次加息情形的尾部风险，高盛的概率加权联邦基金利率预测，仍远比当前市场定价更为鸽派。</strong>高盛同时将终端利率预测从此前的3%-3.25%上调至3.25%-3.5%，并<strong>将2027年首次降息时间从6月推迟至9月。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而花旗特别指出，近期WTI原油和美国平均汽油价格的剧烈波动，<strong>为通胀前景和美联储政策路径增添了额外的复杂性。</strong>若能源价格持续偏高，可能动摇美联储对&#34;通胀已走向目标&#34;的判断，进而强化鹰派委员的立场。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/255ee3c27261513bbdcf3d30cb4f9348\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"686\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c8fa797b8d8847b460d12bfcea47adf","relate_stocks":{"TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TMV":"3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion","SHV":"Ishares Trust Trust Ishares 0-1 YEAR Treasury BOND ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","USTB":"VictoryShares Short-Term Bond ETF","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","SGOV":"Ishares Trust Ishares 0-3 Month Treasury BOND ETF","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3781862","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2667867435","content_text":"华尔街正屏息等待周三美联储的利率决议。花旗与高盛罕见地在核心判断上高度趋同：此次加息几成定局，但这将是一次\"鸽派加息\"——加息本身不是重点，重点是加息之后美联储说了什么，或者，没说什么。据追风交易台消息，花旗在9月15日的最新研报指出，基准预测显示，美联储将把此次加息定义为一次“微调（calibration）”，并暗示未来没有进一步加息的必然性。高盛则在9月13日的研报中指出，今晚将是一次“无信号加息”，并明确表示，不认为此次加息有充分经济基础，通胀超出2%目标的部分可全部归因于一次性因素，经济并未过热。花旗与高盛均预计，中位数点阵图将显示2026年仅剩一次额外加息，降息将于2027年恢复。核心PCE预测因方法论修订料将较6月数据向下修正，为停止加息提供数据背书。尽管基准情形偏鸽，但沃什的新闻发布会将是市场最大的悬念。花旗认为，若美联储主席沃什拒绝提供明确前瞻指引、仅强调\"还有工作要做\"，市场可能重新定价10月和12月连续加息，引发资产价格剧烈波动。高盛认为，沃什需要在发布会上强调委员会将“仔细评估”即将到来的数据，以暗示等待更多信息，从而引导市场放弃对10月加息的过度自信。分析人士认为，今晚的关键不是\"加不加\"，而是\"加完之后说什么\"。沃什的每一句话，都将被市场用放大镜审视。鸽派基准情形：被动加息与“微调”定调当前的市场定价已逼迫美联储做出选择。高盛认为，8月CPI数据公布后，市场对加息的定价概率已逼近90%，美联储为了避免按兵不动引发的市场剧烈反应，将被迫在此次会议上加息25个基点。但这将是一次彻头彻尾的鸽派行动。花旗的基准预测显示，伴随加息而来的前瞻指引将不再指向进一步的政策利率上升。美联储主席沃什大概率会把政策利率的上升轻描淡写地称为一次“轻微调整（slight adjustment）”或“微调（calibration）”，并向市场暗示，如果通胀显示出向目标回落的迹象，可能就不需要进一步加息了。高盛同样预期，美联储在声明中只会做出最低限度的必要修改，避免提供关于未来路径的前瞻指引，即呈现一次“无信号加息”。值得注意的是，高盛预计美联储理事沃勒（Waller）将投下反对票。原因在于，过去三个月核心PCE通胀的年化速率（含预期的方法论修订影响）已降至约2.5%，低于沃勒此前在公开场合设定的2.8%“维持不动”门槛。高盛：不认为此次加息有充分经济基础与花旗的策略分析视角不同，高盛经济研究团队从基本面出发，明确表示不认为此次上调联邦基金利率有充分的经济理由。高盛的核心论点是：通胀超出2%目标的全部幅度，均可归因于影响将会消退的一次性因素，包括关税效应、能源/伊朗冲突影响、软件及配件价格效应以及投资组合管理效应等。高盛认为，核心PCE通胀在6月至8月期间改善至年化约2.5%的速率（含预期方法论修订），正是这些一次性冲击效果消退的早期迹象。在通胀广度问题上，高盛同样持异议。尽管近期有更多品类价格以3%以上的年化速率上涨，但高盛指出，一旦剔除关税效应，通胀的广度与历史上2%通胀时期的水平基本相当——而关税冲击大概率已基本落地。此外，高盛的“瓶颈追踪指标（Bottlenecks Tracker）”显示，行业层面的产能约束如今甚至比疫情前还略少，且主要集中在与AI热潮密切相关的少数行业。经济并未过热——而经济过热，恰恰是通常情况下加息的核心理由。宏观证据也表明，有限幅度的加息不太可能有效抵消供给冲击带来的更大通胀效应。这意味着，无论美联储加息与否，其主要政策逻辑仍是等待过去冲击的影响随时间自然消散。正因为此，高盛认为部分FOMC委员与其通胀判断高度一致，FOMC整体上不愿在本次会议上发出任何进一步加息的信号。SEP经济预测：点阵图与核心PCE下调构成鸽派支撑经济预测摘要（SEP）的多个组成部分将共同强化这一鸽派印象。花旗指出，中位数点阵图将显示今年仅有一次额外加息，降息将在2027年恢复。这一路径符合美联储当前的内部逻辑：4%左右的政策利率已属于“略微限制性”，随着通胀回归目标，这种限制性理应被逐步解除。高盛对点阵图分布的判断同样具体而精准：预计将以10票对8票的微弱多数显示2026年仅加息一次（其中沃勒及可能的其他委员票数为零次加息）。高盛给出这一判断的理由是：部分委员对本次加息本身持矛盾态度，部分委员则不希望进一步推高市场对额外加息的预期。但高盛也明确指出尾部风险：若更多委员将本周加息视为应对油价上涨和AI需求的正常反应、并将其视为一轮连续加息的开端，则出现多数票支持两次加息的风险不可忽视。在通胀预测方面，两家机构均预计核心PCE通胀预测将因方法论修订而向下修正。高盛预计9月SEP中，2026年核心PCE通胀中位预测将从6月的3.3%小幅下调至3.2%，这为停止加息提供了数据支撑。沃什的新闻发布会：市场最大的悬念尽管基准情形偏鸽，花旗警告称，决定整体基调最重要也最难预测的变量，是主席沃什究竟如何谈论此次加息。沃什个人风格倾向于给出较少的前瞻指引，这给市场留下了定价更鹰派政策的巨大空间。花旗认为，如果沃什仅仅强调“还有工作要做（more work to do）”而不提供近期利率指引，这可能被市场视为一个危险信号。在这种鹰派风险情形下，市场可能预期10月和12月的FOMC会议均将加息，甚至将进一步加息的风险定价延伸至2027年。高盛对这一场景的判断则更为具体：FOMC可能希望引导市场降低对10月加息的定价信心（目前已接近50%），但不会在声明中明说。相反，沃什可能在新闻发布会上表示，在决定进一步行动之前，FOMC将“仔细评估（carefully assess）”即将公布的数据，或希望看到多份（plural）即将发布的通胀报告，或观察潜在通胀趋势如何演变——上述任何表述，都将暗示委员会希望多收集一段时间的数据再行动。高盛还补充，由于许多投资者已将11月初的中期选举视为10月加息的政治障碍，阻止市场将10月加息设为\"默认基线\"并非难事。高盛设置了三种情景：基准情形（概率50%）：仅加息一次（本次），2027年9月和12月各降息一次，终端利率为3.25%-3.5%；多次加息情形（概率35%）：最终加息两至三次，终端利率更高；衰退情形（概率15%）：经济下行，货币政策转向。即便充分考虑多次加息情形的尾部风险，高盛的概率加权联邦基金利率预测，仍远比当前市场定价更为鸽派。高盛同时将终端利率预测从此前的3%-3.25%上调至3.25%-3.5%，并将2027年首次降息时间从6月推迟至9月。而花旗特别指出，近期WTI原油和美国平均汽油价格的剧烈波动，为通胀前景和美联储政策路径增添了额外的复杂性。若能源价格持续偏高，可能动摇美联储对\"通胀已走向目标\"的判断，进而强化鹰派委员的立场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TBT":2,"SGOV":2,".IXIC":2,"VGIT":2,"UBT":2,".SPX":2,"USTB":2,"GOVT":2,"VGLT":2,"SHV":2,"TMF":0.6,"SCHO":2,"BOXX":2,".DJI":2,"US2Y.BOND":2,"TMV":2,"TLH":2,"AGG":2,"US7Y.BOND":2,"NQmain":2,"YMmain":2,"TLTW":0.6,"US30Y.BOND":2,"US5Y.BOND":2,"HYG":2,"TLT":0.6,"US12M.BOND":2,"EDV":2,"US10Y.BOND":2,"TIP":2,"ESmain":2,"IEF":2,"US3Y.BOND":2,"VGSH":2,"SHY":2,"US6M.BOND":2,"BND":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604128374825848,"gmtCreate":1788529264771,"gmtModify":1788529266870,"author":{"id":"3516613750658094","authorId":"3516613750658094","name":"DeepValueMaking","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a41dde8572c0ebfaa895f829b9231e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3516613750658094","idStr":"3516613750658094"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"既然敢推出就不怕审查","listText":"既然敢推出就不怕审查","text":"既然敢推出就不怕审查","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604128374825848","repostId":"2664339747","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2664339747","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1788521745,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2664339747?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-04 19:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉(TSLA.US)自动驾驶出租车Cybercab亮相奥斯汀 无方向盘设计引发监管审查","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2664339747","media":"智通财经","summary":"【特斯拉(TSLA.US)自动驾驶出租车Cybercab亮相奥斯汀 无方向盘设计引发监管审查】智通财经APP获悉，当地时间9月3日(周四)，特斯拉(TSLA.US)在德克萨斯州奥斯汀举行独家发布活动，","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n<b>【特斯拉(TSLA.US)自动驾驶出租车Cybercab亮相奥斯汀 无方向盘设计引发监管审查】</b>智通财经APP获悉，当地时间9月3日(周四)，特斯拉(TSLA.US)在德克萨斯州奥斯汀举行独家发布活动，正式推出其首款原生自动驾驶出租车Cybercab，并于次日向公众开放限定区域乘车服务。这款金色外观、蝴蝶门设计的双座车型没有方向盘和踏板，而是依靠摄像头视觉与传感器实现自动驾驶。这一突破传统的设计引发监管关注。                </div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉(TSLA.US)自动驾驶出租车Cybercab亮相奥斯汀 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉(TSLA.US)自动驾驶出租车Cybercab亮相奥斯汀 无方向盘设计引发监管审查\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-04 19:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【特斯拉(TSLA.US)自动驾驶出租车Cybercab亮相奥斯汀 无方向盘设计引发监管审查】智通财经APP获悉，当地时间9月3日(周四)，特斯拉(TSLA.US)在德克萨斯州奥斯汀举行独家发布活动，正式推出其首款原生自动驾驶出租车Cybercab，并于次日向公众开放限定区域乘车服务。这款金色外观、蝴蝶门设计的双座车型没有方向盘和踏板，而是依靠摄像头视觉与传感器实现自动驾驶。这一突破传统的设计引发...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","09366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉-U","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","FDRV":"Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation ETF","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA 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09:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>中国宇树科技首席执行官近日表示，他满怀期待地展望未来——在短短几年内，一款能够胜任家庭中八成日常任务的机器人，有望真正走入普通人的日常生活。这一愿景不仅勾勒出智能家居的崭新图景，也折射出中国机器人产业迅猛攀升的雄心。这位掌门人强调，技术的演进正以令人目眩的速度推进，而将机器人从实验室带入客厅，已然不再是遥不可及的科幻想象。他坦言，实现这一目标仍需跨越诸多工程与成本挑战，但团队正全力攻关，力求让机器人从“能看”走向“能干”，从“辅助”迈向“主力”。在他看来，未来家庭中，机器人将不再是冷冰冰的机械装置，而是能够分担家务、解放双手的贴心伙伴。话语间，那份笃定与热忱，仿佛已勾勒出智能生活触手可及的轮廓。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"688836":"宇树科技-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124131273","content_text":"中国宇树科技首席执行官近日表示，他满怀期待地展望未来——在短短几年内，一款能够胜任家庭中八成日常任务的机器人，有望真正走入普通人的日常生活。这一愿景不仅勾勒出智能家居的崭新图景，也折射出中国机器人产业迅猛攀升的雄心。这位掌门人强调，技术的演进正以令人目眩的速度推进，而将机器人从实验室带入客厅，已然不再是遥不可及的科幻想象。他坦言，实现这一目标仍需跨越诸多工程与成本挑战，但团队正全力攻关，力求让机器人从“能看”走向“能干”，从“辅助”迈向“主力”。在他看来，未来家庭中，机器人将不再是冷冰冰的机械装置，而是能够分担家务、解放双手的贴心伙伴。话语间，那份笃定与热忱，仿佛已勾勒出智能生活触手可及的轮廓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688836":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":598689598951536,"gmtCreate":1787190254290,"gmtModify":1787190256218,"author":{"id":"3516613750658094","authorId":"3516613750658094","name":"DeepValueMaking","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a41dde8572c0ebfaa895f829b9231e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3516613750658094","idStr":"3516613750658094"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"‌<a 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今天抛的可不是散户"},{"author":{"id":"3516613750658094","authorId":"3516613750658094","name":"DeepValueMaking","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a41dde8572c0ebfaa895f829b9231e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3516613750658094","authorIdStr":"3516613750658094"},"content":"中单也净卖出22亿了。","text":"中单也净卖出22亿了。","html":"中单也净卖出22亿了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":566884764059432,"gmtCreate":1779433991483,"gmtModify":1779433993489,"author":{"id":"3516613750658094","authorId":"3516613750658094","name":"DeepValueMaking","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a41dde8572c0ebfaa895f829b9231e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516613750658094","authorIdStr":"3516613750658094"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00100\">$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ &nbsp;</a>‌800 附近是 5 月中旬套牢区，大量筹码等着解套，一到就砸。","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00100\">$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ &nbsp;</a>‌800 附近是 5 月中旬套牢区，大量筹码等着解套，一到就砸。","text":"‌$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ ‌800 附近是 5 月中旬套牢区，大量筹码等着解套，一到就砸。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566884764059432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3552557288000440","authorId":"3552557288000440","name":"bestpredict","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bc7a2340d3cf8ba40f462b4281f6259","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3552557288000440","authorIdStr":"3552557288000440"},"content":"你肯定做空了吧 t[龇牙]","text":"你肯定做空了吧 t[龇牙]","html":"你肯定做空了吧 t[龇牙]"},{"author":{"id":"3516613750658094","authorId":"3516613750658094","name":"DeepValueMaking","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a41dde8572c0ebfaa895f829b9231e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3516613750658094","authorIdStr":"3516613750658094"},"content":"不是，只是学会分析了。","text":"不是，只是学会分析了。","html":"不是，只是学会分析了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}