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宝贝歪歪
07-22 13:47
最近这些公募不得亏麻了
公募基金二季报：腾讯退出前十大重仓股，成为Q2被减仓最多的公司
宝贝歪歪
06-01
对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。
暴跌2万亿！
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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12:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"公募基金二季报：腾讯退出前十大重仓股，成为Q2被减仓最多的公司","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159240255","media":"大滑头","summary":"2026年一季度，腾讯已经被公募减持245.74亿元，同样位居减持榜首。连续两个季度下来，腾讯在公募重仓口径下的减持市值超过430亿元。当时，近1200只基金重仓持有腾讯，持股数量超过1.5亿股，重仓市值接近694亿港元。基金经理卖腾讯，也存在现实的组合管理因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月22日，腾讯控股盘中一度跌近6%。这场突如其来的下跌，直接导火索来自前一晚披露的公募基金二季报：<strong>腾讯退出公募前十大重仓股，并以187.37亿元的减持市值，成为二季度被公募减仓最多的公司。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23731919562df80e6e286b1721f3bea\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这笔资金撤退并非一天之内发生。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年一季度，腾讯已经被公募减持245.74亿元，同样位居减持榜首。连续两个季度下来，腾讯在公募重仓口径下的减持市值超过430亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要注意，所谓“减持市值”是根据基金季报持仓变化统计得出的历史数据，并不等于7月22日当天有187亿元资金集中卖出。二季报披露真正产生的影响，是把此前隐藏在水面下的机构调仓公开化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">问题也随之而来：一家利润仍在增长、现金流充裕、持续回购股票的公司，为什么会被公募资金连续抛售？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">答案藏在当前市场最激烈的一场资金迁徙中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一、从头号重仓到减持第一，腾讯输给了资金的“时间表”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">时间倒回2025年一季度，腾讯曾取代宁德时代，首次成为公募基金头号重仓股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当时，近1200只基金重仓持有腾讯，持股数量超过1.5亿股，重仓市值接近694亿港元。港股互联网估值修复、游戏业务恢复增长、广告利润率改善，共同推动腾讯成为基金经理眼中的“低估值科技核心资产”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一年多之后，市场偏好已经完全改变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年二季度，公募前十大重仓股几乎被AI硬件产业链占领。中际旭创、新易盛位居前两名，寒武纪、中微公司、北方华创、兆易创新、源杰科技等公司进入前十。光模块、AI芯片、半导体设备和电子制造，成为主动基金最集中的配置方向；腾讯、阿里巴巴、贵州茅台、中国平安等传统核心资产则集体退出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种变化意味着，基金经理并没有简单地从科技股撤退，而是在科技板块内部重新选择增长速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯代表的是相对稳定的利润、现金流和回购。AI硬件公司代表的是订单增长、产能扩张和利润预测快速上修。在一场以年度排名和短期业绩为考核尺度的行情中，后者天然更容易获得资金追逐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯2025年调整后归母净利润已经达到2596亿元，同比增长17%。如此庞大的利润基数，让公司即使增加数百亿元利润，增速也很难与处于景气爆发期的光模块、芯片设备公司相比。对长期资金而言，这是确定性；对追求超额收益的主动基金而言，却意味着弹性不足。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公募卖出的其实是一段增长速度，而非腾讯的生存能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>二、腾讯依然赚钱，但AI正在重新分配利润</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从财务数据看，腾讯并没有出现经营恶化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年，公司收入达到7518亿元，同比增长14%；调整后归母净利润增长17%至2596亿元；自由现金流达到1826亿元，同比增长18%。全年腾讯还投入约800亿港元回购股票。无论盈利质量、现金储备还是股东回报能力，腾讯仍是中国互联网公司中最稳健的资产之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">进入2026年，这种稳定性仍在延续。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度腾讯收入1965亿元，同比增长9%；调整后归母净利润679亿元，同比增长11%。营销服务收入增长20%，企业服务收入增长20%，AI广告推荐已经推动广告转化效率和定价提升，AI相关云服务需求也在增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但财报中还有一组更值得关注的数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯一季度调整后经营利润增长9%；剔除混元、元宝、CodeBuddy、WorkBuddy和QClaw等新AI产品的收入、成本和费用后，经营利润原本可以增长17%。换句话说，新一轮AI投入已经将腾讯的经营利润增速压低了约8个百分点。同期，公司资本开支达到319亿元，同比增长16%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这正是基金经理最难定价的地方。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI已经能够帮助腾讯改善广告效率、提升游戏运营能力和推动云业务增长，但这些收益目前主要体现为原有业务的效率提升。与此同时，模型训练、算力基础设施、人才招聘和AI产品推广产生的成本，会立即进入财务报表。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场由此看到了一种暂时错位：AI收益正在缓慢渗透，AI成本却快速确认。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于腾讯而言，这些投入是在为微信AI Agent、混元模型和企业级智能体建立长期入口；对于考核周期只有几个季度的资金而言，利润增速放缓会直接影响估值提升空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯的AI优势需要时间兑现，公募基金的净值排名却不会暂停。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三、被卖出的还有“互联网估值”，资金正在追逐产业链利润</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯遭遇减持，还反映出AI行情定价方式的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI行情早期，市场愿意为模型能力、用户入口和应用想象力买单。进入资本开支加速阶段后，资金开始优先寻找能够直接确认收入的环节：光模块卖出了多少、芯片设备交付了多少、存储价格涨了多少、订单能见度能够延伸到几个季度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">硬件公司获得订单后，收入和利润可以迅速体现在财报中；平台公司推出AI产品后，还要经历用户教育、商业模式设计、推理成本控制和生态整合。两条路径最终都可能创造价值，但利润兑现的时间并不同步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯恰好处在最容易被资金忽视的阶段：传统业务已经足够成熟，AI业务又尚未形成独立且可量化的收入曲线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也解释了一个看似矛盾的现象：腾讯一边被公募减持，一边仍然具备强劲现金流、庞大用户入口和持续回购能力。资金降低腾讯仓位，更多是在提高组合对AI景气度的敏感性，并不能直接推导出腾讯基本面见顶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基金经理卖腾讯，也存在现实的组合管理因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯市值大、流动性好、机构持仓长期集中。当基金需要迅速增加光模块、芯片和半导体设备仓位时，减持腾讯、阿里和传统龙头，是释放资金最直接的方式。腾讯因此承担了“资金来源股”的角色：企业经营没有发生突变，却会在市场风格剧烈切换时承受集中卖压。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种卖压具有自我强化效应。基金减仓压低股价，股价弱势降低短期相对收益，排名压力又促使更多资金转向强势板块。直到腾讯估值足够低，或者AI商业化出现能够被财报验证的拐点，资金循环才可能反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>结语：公募在追逐利润斜率，腾讯在等待AI收入拐点</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯被公募大规模减持，是一场关于时间、弹性和机会成本的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公募基金需要在有限仓位中追逐增长最快的产业环节，当前答案指向光模块、芯片和半导体设备。腾讯拥有更稳定的利润、更强的现金流和更广阔的用户入口，但这些优势暂时无法提供同等幅度的盈利预测上修。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，腾讯接下来真正需要证明的，并非游戏还能不能赚钱、广告还能不能增长。这些业务已经足够成熟。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场等待的是三件事：AI投入增速何时趋稳，微信及企业级AI产品何时形成规模收入，AI带来的新增利润何时超过模型和算力成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一旦这三个问题得到财报验证，腾讯的身份可能从“成熟互联网现金流资产”重新转向“AI应用平台”。在此之前，公募更愿意购买看得见的订单；腾讯只能用现金流、回购和持续增长，为下一轮估值切换争取时间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公募资金卖掉的是当下的速度，腾讯需要交付的是未来的第二条增长曲线。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1784696265122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>公募基金二季报：腾讯退出前十大重仓股，成为Q2被减仓最多的公司</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n公募基金二季报：腾讯退出前十大重仓股，成为Q2被减仓最多的公司\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-22 12:56 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_3k-sLbXeIg0tqs4Td7qxg><strong>大滑头</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月22日，腾讯控股盘中一度跌近6%。这场突如其来的下跌，直接导火索来自前一晚披露的公募基金二季报：腾讯退出公募前十大重仓股，并以187.37亿元的减持市值，成为二季度被公募减仓最多的公司。但这笔资金撤退并非一天之内发生。2026年一季度，腾讯已经被公募减持245.74亿元，同样位居减持榜首。连续两个季度下来，腾讯在公募重仓口径下的减持市值超过430亿元。需要注意，所谓“减持市值”是根据基金季报...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_3k-sLbXeIg0tqs4Td7qxg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_3k-sLbXeIg0tqs4Td7qxg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159240255","content_text":"7月22日，腾讯控股盘中一度跌近6%。这场突如其来的下跌，直接导火索来自前一晚披露的公募基金二季报：腾讯退出公募前十大重仓股，并以187.37亿元的减持市值，成为二季度被公募减仓最多的公司。但这笔资金撤退并非一天之内发生。2026年一季度，腾讯已经被公募减持245.74亿元，同样位居减持榜首。连续两个季度下来，腾讯在公募重仓口径下的减持市值超过430亿元。需要注意，所谓“减持市值”是根据基金季报持仓变化统计得出的历史数据，并不等于7月22日当天有187亿元资金集中卖出。二季报披露真正产生的影响，是把此前隐藏在水面下的机构调仓公开化。问题也随之而来：一家利润仍在增长、现金流充裕、持续回购股票的公司，为什么会被公募资金连续抛售？答案藏在当前市场最激烈的一场资金迁徙中。一、从头号重仓到减持第一，腾讯输给了资金的“时间表”时间倒回2025年一季度，腾讯曾取代宁德时代，首次成为公募基金头号重仓股。当时，近1200只基金重仓持有腾讯，持股数量超过1.5亿股，重仓市值接近694亿港元。港股互联网估值修复、游戏业务恢复增长、广告利润率改善，共同推动腾讯成为基金经理眼中的“低估值科技核心资产”。一年多之后，市场偏好已经完全改变。2026年二季度，公募前十大重仓股几乎被AI硬件产业链占领。中际旭创、新易盛位居前两名，寒武纪、中微公司、北方华创、兆易创新、源杰科技等公司进入前十。光模块、AI芯片、半导体设备和电子制造，成为主动基金最集中的配置方向；腾讯、阿里巴巴、贵州茅台、中国平安等传统核心资产则集体退出。这种变化意味着，基金经理并没有简单地从科技股撤退，而是在科技板块内部重新选择增长速度。腾讯代表的是相对稳定的利润、现金流和回购。AI硬件公司代表的是订单增长、产能扩张和利润预测快速上修。在一场以年度排名和短期业绩为考核尺度的行情中，后者天然更容易获得资金追逐。腾讯2025年调整后归母净利润已经达到2596亿元，同比增长17%。如此庞大的利润基数，让公司即使增加数百亿元利润，增速也很难与处于景气爆发期的光模块、芯片设备公司相比。对长期资金而言，这是确定性；对追求超额收益的主动基金而言，却意味着弹性不足。公募卖出的其实是一段增长速度，而非腾讯的生存能力。二、腾讯依然赚钱，但AI正在重新分配利润从财务数据看，腾讯并没有出现经营恶化。2025年，公司收入达到7518亿元，同比增长14%；调整后归母净利润增长17%至2596亿元；自由现金流达到1826亿元，同比增长18%。全年腾讯还投入约800亿港元回购股票。无论盈利质量、现金储备还是股东回报能力，腾讯仍是中国互联网公司中最稳健的资产之一。进入2026年，这种稳定性仍在延续。一季度腾讯收入1965亿元，同比增长9%；调整后归母净利润679亿元，同比增长11%。营销服务收入增长20%，企业服务收入增长20%，AI广告推荐已经推动广告转化效率和定价提升，AI相关云服务需求也在增加。但财报中还有一组更值得关注的数据。腾讯一季度调整后经营利润增长9%；剔除混元、元宝、CodeBuddy、WorkBuddy和QClaw等新AI产品的收入、成本和费用后，经营利润原本可以增长17%。换句话说，新一轮AI投入已经将腾讯的经营利润增速压低了约8个百分点。同期，公司资本开支达到319亿元，同比增长16%。这正是基金经理最难定价的地方。AI已经能够帮助腾讯改善广告效率、提升游戏运营能力和推动云业务增长，但这些收益目前主要体现为原有业务的效率提升。与此同时，模型训练、算力基础设施、人才招聘和AI产品推广产生的成本，会立即进入财务报表。市场由此看到了一种暂时错位：AI收益正在缓慢渗透，AI成本却快速确认。对于腾讯而言，这些投入是在为微信AI Agent、混元模型和企业级智能体建立长期入口；对于考核周期只有几个季度的资金而言，利润增速放缓会直接影响估值提升空间。腾讯的AI优势需要时间兑现，公募基金的净值排名却不会暂停。三、被卖出的还有“互联网估值”，资金正在追逐产业链利润腾讯遭遇减持，还反映出AI行情定价方式的变化。AI行情早期，市场愿意为模型能力、用户入口和应用想象力买单。进入资本开支加速阶段后，资金开始优先寻找能够直接确认收入的环节：光模块卖出了多少、芯片设备交付了多少、存储价格涨了多少、订单能见度能够延伸到几个季度。硬件公司获得订单后，收入和利润可以迅速体现在财报中；平台公司推出AI产品后，还要经历用户教育、商业模式设计、推理成本控制和生态整合。两条路径最终都可能创造价值，但利润兑现的时间并不同步。腾讯恰好处在最容易被资金忽视的阶段：传统业务已经足够成熟，AI业务又尚未形成独立且可量化的收入曲线。这也解释了一个看似矛盾的现象：腾讯一边被公募减持，一边仍然具备强劲现金流、庞大用户入口和持续回购能力。资金降低腾讯仓位，更多是在提高组合对AI景气度的敏感性，并不能直接推导出腾讯基本面见顶。基金经理卖腾讯，也存在现实的组合管理因素。腾讯市值大、流动性好、机构持仓长期集中。当基金需要迅速增加光模块、芯片和半导体设备仓位时，减持腾讯、阿里和传统龙头，是释放资金最直接的方式。腾讯因此承担了“资金来源股”的角色：企业经营没有发生突变，却会在市场风格剧烈切换时承受集中卖压。这种卖压具有自我强化效应。基金减仓压低股价，股价弱势降低短期相对收益，排名压力又促使更多资金转向强势板块。直到腾讯估值足够低，或者AI商业化出现能够被财报验证的拐点，资金循环才可能反转。结语：公募在追逐利润斜率，腾讯在等待AI收入拐点腾讯被公募大规模减持，是一场关于时间、弹性和机会成本的选择。公募基金需要在有限仓位中追逐增长最快的产业环节，当前答案指向光模块、芯片和半导体设备。腾讯拥有更稳定的利润、更强的现金流和更广阔的用户入口，但这些优势暂时无法提供同等幅度的盈利预测上修。因此，腾讯接下来真正需要证明的，并非游戏还能不能赚钱、广告还能不能增长。这些业务已经足够成熟。市场等待的是三件事：AI投入增速何时趋稳，微信及企业级AI产品何时形成规模收入，AI带来的新增利润何时超过模型和算力成本。一旦这三个问题得到财报验证，腾讯的身份可能从“成熟互联网现金流资产”重新转向“AI应用平台”。在此之前，公募更愿意购买看得见的订单；腾讯只能用现金流、回购和持续增长，为下一轮估值切换争取时间。公募资金卖掉的是当下的速度，腾讯需要交付的是未来的第二条增长曲线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":2,"TCEHY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":570515660349656,"gmtCreate":1780292792820,"gmtModify":1780294136772,"author":{"id":"3474922744686452","authorId":"3474922744686452","name":"宝贝歪歪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474922744686452","idStr":"3474922744686452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","listText":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","text":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570515660349656","repostId":"2639606596","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2639606596","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1780126241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2639606596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-30 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"暴跌2万亿！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2639606596","media":"格隆汇","summary":"还行吗？","content":"<html><body><p>本文作者 | 深鹏</p><p><span><span>数据</span></span><span><span>支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-ab365baf-330d-4094-bb61-345e0812125b.jpg?guru_height=44&guru_width=1080&guru_size=6688\"/></p><p><span><span><span>经历了连日的下跌，周五<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>终于反弹了。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>游戏发布会上，</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不过，去年</span></span><span><span>9</span></span><span><span>月时，其股价曾经冲高到</span></span><span><span>677</span></span><span><span>港元，距离</span></span><span><span>21</span></span><span><span>年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过</span></span><span><span>30%</span></span><span><span>，市值蒸发超过</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万亿港币。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/54879-62f1e81e-bc52-4a51-bb2a-70d3e8a8bd18.jpg?guru_height=554&guru_width=865&guru_size=57506\"/></p><p><span><span><span>从走势上看，虽然中间有一些反弹，但下行趋势确实很明显。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>吊诡的是，同一时期交出的财报并不难看</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>游戏收入稳健增长，广告业务增速亮眼，微信月活稳居</span></span><span><span>14</span></span><span><span>亿以上。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>业绩在涨，股价在跌。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>究竟是意料之外，还是情理之中？</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">怎么啦？</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>市值的下跌，虽然有一些交易层、资金层和政策层的原因，但最被广泛接受的解释，是其在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>上投入不足，进展缓慢。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>毕竟，现在很多科技公司的估值溢价，只因两个字：</span></span><b><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>有一张图很直观，元宝明显落后，这与微信在社交领域中的绝对垄断地位形成鲜明对比。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/534af-291a9493-c9a7-4ff0-92f2-4ca160eed8de.jpg?guru_height=381&guru_width=579&guru_size=30932\"/></p><p><span><span><span>更不安的是，抖音系应用的用户时长占比在</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>月达到</span></span><span><span>37.4%</span></span><span><span>，首次超过腾讯的</span></span><span><span>30.0%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>从产业端的角度看，同行都在砸钱做</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>算力投资，它却异常低调和克制。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，</span></span><span><span>其</span></span><span><span>资本开支</span></span><span><span>792</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长仅</span></span><span><span>3%</span></span><span><span>；同期字节跳动资本开支飙升至</span></span><span><span>1600</span></span><span><span>亿以上</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>26</span></span><span><span>年追加到</span></span><span><span>2000</span></span><span><span>亿，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a></span></span><span><span>3800</span></span><span><span>亿（未来数年累积）的资本开支，更是一度疯狂刷屏。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>是没有钱吗？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>当然不是。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>刚公布的</span></span><span><span>26Q1</span></span><span><span>财报，其现金及等价物高达</span></span><span><span>2178</span></span><span><span>亿，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>的</span></span><span><span>1315</span></span><span><span>亿，自由现金流（净流入）</span></span><span><span>567</span></span><span><span>亿，而阿里是净流出</span></span><span><span>173</span></span><span><span>亿。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>现在，全球科技巨头都在疯狂砸钱买</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>，虽然屡遭质疑，并因此导致股价大幅下跌，但反过来说，如果不肯投钱，后果会是什么呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>先发优势丧失！</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这可能是</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>投资最大的悖论：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>烧钱，利润和现金流跌，但估值有溢价（尽管也经常面对质疑）；不烧钱，利润和现金流保住，但估值溢价消失。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>腾讯的</span></span><span><span>PE</span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span>TTM</span></span><span><span>）已经跌穿</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>倍，落后于阿里（约</span></span><span><span>20</span></span><span><span>倍）。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种估值水位，已经滑向公用事业，不能说完全抹掉</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>溢价，但即使有，也很小了。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>当然，</span></span><span><span>也有观点认为，</span></span><span><span>这是</span></span><span><span>“等”字诀的体现</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>等算力成本下降，等国产替代成熟，等开源模型拉平差距</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>属于典型的</span></span><span><span>“追随者”策略</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但</span></span><span><span>资本是势利眼</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>既然你</span></span><span><span>“投入不足”</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>那我就</span></span><span><span>“先走为敬”了，等你哪天“又行了”，我再回来。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">旧路径</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>任何具体的经营行为、决策动作，其实都是战略层面的体现。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>腾讯在战略上，一直以</span></span><span><span>“稳”著称。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>将这种战略转化成具体的经营行为，一个是</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><b><span><span>对内做流量</span></span></b><span><span>”，</span><span>另一个是</span><span>“</span></span><b><span><span>对外做投资</span></span></b><span><span>”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为手握社交聊天工具这个天然流量王牌，以及社交、广告、游戏等天然的现金流工具，它当然有底气做这些行为。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2015</span></span><span><span>年，</span></span><span><span>小马哥</span></span><span><span>在全球合作伙伴大会上首次公开阐释了这一理念：</span></span><span><span>“我喜欢自留‘半条命’这个说法，把另外半条命交给合作伙伴。”</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>此后，这一表述成为</span></span><span><span>公司</span></span><span><span>战略思想的标签</span></span><span><span>：</span></span><b><span><span>只做自己最擅长的事情，把其他领域让给生态伙伴。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>2016</span></span><span><span>年与清华大学经管学院院长的对谈中，</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>进一步阐述了这一理念的演化逻辑：</span></span><span><span>“几年前，腾讯的战略是不开放的，很多业务都自己做，好多都失败。我们电商做不过人家，卖掉了；搜索也一样。我们思考如何让各种物种在大树下成长？如何让大树变成一片森林？”</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这套逻辑的底层是风险规避思维：与其在非核心领域与专业对手死磕，不如通过投资和合作建立生态。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这既是一种战略选择，也是一种资源约束下的生存智慧。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>与</span></span><span><span>“半条命”理论相辅相成的，是</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>对</span></span><span><span>“速度”的独特理解。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年初的员工大会上，</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>明确表示：</span></span><span><span>“每个企业的基因不同、体质不同，腾讯的风格就是稳扎稳打。”</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>他强调，在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>战略上，腾讯有自己的考虑和节奏，核心是“产品的长期竞争力和用户的体验”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种</span></span><span><span>“稳扎稳打”体现在具体的战略判断上。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>面对外界对</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>投入不足的质疑，</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>曾给出一个极具代表性的类比：</span></span><span><span>“对于工业革命而言，早一个月拿出电灯泡，在长周期维度下并不那么重要。”</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种理念与</span></span><span><span>其</span></span><span><span>核心业务的属性高度匹配：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>社交和游戏业务具有极强的网络效应和用户粘性，一旦建立起优势，很难被颠覆。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因此，</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>有底气</span></span><span><span>“等一等”，让竞争对手先去试错，自己再择机入场。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在游戏、社交网络、支付领域，都曾验证过这一路径的有效性</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>也形成了</span></span><span><span>在核心业务上保持稳健，在新业务上保持克制</span></span><span><span>的经营风格。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">开新路？</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>要说腾讯在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>上毫不作为，也不对。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>从</span></span><span><span>公开信息</span></span><span><span>中</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>其</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>领域投资</span></span><span><span>是有布局的，而且收益上还相当可以。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>例如，</span></span><span><span>MiniMax</span></span><span><span>上市后回报</span></span><span><span>19.78</span></span><span><span>倍，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>回报</span></span><span><span>36.6</span></span><span><span>倍，摩尔线程约</span></span><span><span>17</span></span><span><span>倍。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不过，在自建方面，确实没有太多动作。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>暂时可以得出一个结论，他依然沿用过去的思维。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>于是，最核心问题来了，过去的成功路径，是否还适用于</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>时代呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>说实话，现在还真的无法定论。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不过，这并不妨碍我们做一个推理，先声明，以下推理都是基于已经公开信息，无法穿透到企业内部，存在未尽事宜，仅供参考。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>即：如果沿用</span></span><span><span>“给钱给流量”的做法，会呈现什么样的一个情景呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>比如，如果看上了一个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>，腾讯可以几十亿上百亿地入股，并把微信的流量都倒给它。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但创业公司拿到了钱，也拿到了流量，是否就可以成长为一个头部</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型公司呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>资金和流量当然是好东西，但最终也要取决于他们的模型能力，比如参数、训练效果、推理能力，还有具体的市占率、渗透率等等。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>更直白的解释是，如果豆包的回答确实比元宝好，用户会无视微信里满屏的元宝接口，也不会介意从微信切换到豆包</span></span><span><span>APP</span></span><span><span>所浪费的时间。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不能说对外投资完全不行，因为</span></span><span><span>open AI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>claude</span></span><span><span>就是成功例子。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>问题只是，目前模型公司基本呈现三足鼎立的态势，美国是</span></span><span><span>open AI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>claude</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>gemini</span></span><span><span>，中国是豆包、阿里和</span></span><span><span>DS</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>腾讯即便有机会入股这些公司，但股权占比不会高，主导权更别提了，而排名靠后的模型公司，价格很便宜，主导权也给你，但你还想要吗？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这让我不由得回想起当年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个经典的失败案例，说明当头部阵营（当年是</span></span><span><span>IOS</span></span><span><span>、安卓）确立之后，即使再有钱，技术能力也很顶级，也难撼动。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为</span></span><span><span>IT</span></span><span><span>世界存在一个物理定律</span></span><span><span>--</span></span><b><span><span>赢家通吃</span></span></b><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力的问题，逻辑其实也一样，腾讯可以看上一些专门提供算力的公司（海外就有像</span></span><span><span>coreweave</span></span><span><span>这类纯算力出租商），然后大把大把地给钱，又给很多社交媒体流量，但这就能催生出一个大型</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>云计算公司呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>如果说模型还可以用</span></span><span><span>open AI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>claude</span></span><span><span>扯一下，这个问题就没有“帮手”了。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为，直到现在，大厂们全都是自己建算力，他们也会做一些外购，但比例都不高，用做暂时过渡或小比例互补。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>正如硬币不可能同时呈现两面，对于自建算力这个事，烧钱的和不烧钱的，肯定有一个是错的。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>至于微信流量，在算力这个事上，可以略过。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">04</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">结语</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>说了这么多，不管逻辑自洽不自洽，其实还是得承认，市场讯息万变，答案并不是简单的</span></span><span><span>yes </span></span><span><span>或 </span></span><span><span>no</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>尤其是对于腾讯，钱又有，能力也不差。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有一点很重要，那就是其庞大的数据资源，包括社交、娱乐、购物、支付、金融等等，涵盖了各个领域。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这些数据在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>时代价值连城，是训练和推理</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型最重要的“原材料”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因此，如果因为腾讯求稳，就说它不行了，也不尽然。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而且，他们已经正式对外宣布，</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>投入将“至少翻倍”，并调整资金优先级——减少回购，为</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>算力让路。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>回到股价，现在鹅厂和资本的博弈，确实很焦灼。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但我想，这对企业自身乃至整个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业、资本市场、投资者，甚至更广阔的领域，都绝不是坏事。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而且，任何人都不能排除，哪天它启动大改革，全力以赴做</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>，逻辑反转，绝地反弹的可能性。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>要知道，这种旧科技公司翻身的案例，在资本市场上并不少，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、微软。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为很多时候，向左还是向右，就在老板的一念之间。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>以资本的嗅觉，一旦他们觉得你逻辑反转了，扫货的速度，那就是超音速。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>至于这场博弈终局会是如此，我们这里不再推测了，一切等时间证明吧。</span></span><span><span>（全文完）</span></span></span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>暴跌2万亿！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暴跌2万亿！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-30 15:30 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文作者 | 深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）经历了连日的下跌，周五腾讯终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。从走势上看，虽然...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/192cd-95c90cf0-7720-4341-8632-9695efae6579.jpg?guru_height=5344&guru_width=9504&guru_size=2660124","relate_stocks":{"LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0828238088.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLBL EMGNG MKT OPPS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1725190679.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS MULTI-ASSET \"A\" (HKD) INC MF","IE00BF5LJ272.USD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Global Emerging Markets A Acc USD","LU0700851271.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS MULTI-ASSET \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2362540622.SGD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001903.USD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity USD","LU0348783233.USD":"安联东方收入型 CI A Dis美元","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","SG9999006514.SGD":"United Asia Consumer Fund 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2639606596","content_text":"本文作者 | 深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）经历了连日的下跌，周五腾讯终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。从走势上看，虽然中间有一些反弹，但下行趋势确实很明显。吊诡的是，同一时期交出的财报并不难看，游戏收入稳健增长，广告业务增速亮眼，微信月活稳居14亿以上。业绩在涨，股价在跌。究竟是意料之外，还是情理之中？01怎么啦？市值的下跌，虽然有一些交易层、资金层和政策层的原因，但最被广泛接受的解释，是其在AI上投入不足，进展缓慢。毕竟，现在很多科技公司的估值溢价，只因两个字：AI。有一张图很直观，元宝明显落后，这与微信在社交领域中的绝对垄断地位形成鲜明对比。更不安的是，抖音系应用的用户时长占比在2026年1月达到37.4%，首次超过腾讯的30.0%。从产业端的角度看，同行都在砸钱做AI算力投资，它却异常低调和克制。2025年，其资本开支792亿元，同比增长仅3%；同期字节跳动资本开支飙升至1600亿以上，26年追加到2000亿，而阿里3800亿（未来数年累积）的资本开支，更是一度疯狂刷屏。是没有钱吗？当然不是。刚公布的26Q1财报，其现金及等价物高达2178亿，超过阿里的1315亿，自由现金流（净流入）567亿，而阿里是净流出173亿。现在，全球科技巨头都在疯狂砸钱买GPU，虽然屡遭质疑，并因此导致股价大幅下跌，但反过来说，如果不肯投钱，后果会是什么呢？先发优势丧失！这可能是AI投资最大的悖论：烧钱，利润和现金流跌，但估值有溢价（尽管也经常面对质疑）；不烧钱，利润和现金流保住，但估值溢价消失。腾讯的PE（TTM）已经跌穿15倍，落后于阿里（约20倍）。这种估值水位，已经滑向公用事业，不能说完全抹掉AI溢价，但即使有，也很小了。当然，也有观点认为，这是“等”字诀的体现，等算力成本下降，等国产替代成熟，等开源模型拉平差距，属于典型的“追随者”策略。但资本是势利眼，既然你“投入不足”，那我就“先走为敬”了，等你哪天“又行了”，我再回来。02旧路径任何具体的经营行为、决策动作，其实都是战略层面的体现。腾讯在战略上，一直以“稳”著称。将这种战略转化成具体的经营行为，一个是“对内做流量”，另一个是“对外做投资”。因为手握社交聊天工具这个天然流量王牌，以及社交、广告、游戏等天然的现金流工具，它当然有底气做这些行为。2015年，小马哥在全球合作伙伴大会上首次公开阐释了这一理念：“我喜欢自留‘半条命’这个说法，把另外半条命交给合作伙伴。”此后，这一表述成为公司战略思想的标签：只做自己最擅长的事情，把其他领域让给生态伙伴。在2016年与清华大学经管学院院长的对谈中，他进一步阐述了这一理念的演化逻辑：“几年前，腾讯的战略是不开放的，很多业务都自己做，好多都失败。我们电商做不过人家，卖掉了；搜索也一样。我们思考如何让各种物种在大树下成长？如何让大树变成一片森林？”这套逻辑的底层是风险规避思维：与其在非核心领域与专业对手死磕，不如通过投资和合作建立生态。这既是一种战略选择，也是一种资源约束下的生存智慧。与“半条命”理论相辅相成的，是他对“速度”的独特理解。在2026年初的员工大会上，他明确表示：“每个企业的基因不同、体质不同，腾讯的风格就是稳扎稳打。”他强调，在AI战略上，腾讯有自己的考虑和节奏，核心是“产品的长期竞争力和用户的体验”。这种“稳扎稳打”体现在具体的战略判断上。面对外界对AI投入不足的质疑，他曾给出一个极具代表性的类比：“对于工业革命而言，早一个月拿出电灯泡，在长周期维度下并不那么重要。”这种理念与其核心业务的属性高度匹配：社交和游戏业务具有极强的网络效应和用户粘性，一旦建立起优势，很难被颠覆。因此，他有底气“等一等”，让竞争对手先去试错，自己再择机入场。在游戏、社交网络、支付领域，都曾验证过这一路径的有效性，也形成了在核心业务上保持稳健，在新业务上保持克制的经营风格。03开新路？要说腾讯在AI上毫不作为，也不对。从公开信息中，其AI领域投资是有布局的，而且收益上还相当可以。例如，MiniMax上市后回报19.78倍，智谱回报36.6倍，摩尔线程约17倍。不过，在自建方面，确实没有太多动作。暂时可以得出一个结论，他依然沿用过去的思维。于是，最核心问题来了，过去的成功路径，是否还适用于AI时代呢？说实话，现在还真的无法定论。不过，这并不妨碍我们做一个推理，先声明，以下推理都是基于已经公开信息，无法穿透到企业内部，存在未尽事宜，仅供参考。即：如果沿用“给钱给流量”的做法，会呈现什么样的一个情景呢？比如，如果看上了一个AI模型创业公司，腾讯可以几十亿上百亿地入股，并把微信的流量都倒给它。但创业公司拿到了钱，也拿到了流量，是否就可以成长为一个头部AI模型公司呢？资金和流量当然是好东西，但最终也要取决于他们的模型能力，比如参数、训练效果、推理能力，还有具体的市占率、渗透率等等。更直白的解释是，如果豆包的回答确实比元宝好，用户会无视微信里满屏的元宝接口，也不会介意从微信切换到豆包APP所浪费的时间。不能说对外投资完全不行，因为open AI、claude就是成功例子。问题只是，目前模型公司基本呈现三足鼎立的态势，美国是open AI、claude、gemini，中国是豆包、阿里和DS。腾讯即便有机会入股这些公司，但股权占比不会高，主导权更别提了，而排名靠后的模型公司，价格很便宜，主导权也给你，但你还想要吗？这让我不由得回想起当年微软收购诺基亚。这个经典的失败案例，说明当头部阵营（当年是IOS、安卓）确立之后，即使再有钱，技术能力也很顶级，也难撼动。因为IT世界存在一个物理定律--赢家通吃。算力的问题，逻辑其实也一样，腾讯可以看上一些专门提供算力的公司（海外就有像coreweave这类纯算力出租商），然后大把大把地给钱，又给很多社交媒体流量，但这就能催生出一个大型AI云计算公司呢？如果说模型还可以用open AI、claude扯一下，这个问题就没有“帮手”了。因为，直到现在，大厂们全都是自己建算力，他们也会做一些外购，但比例都不高，用做暂时过渡或小比例互补。正如硬币不可能同时呈现两面，对于自建算力这个事，烧钱的和不烧钱的，肯定有一个是错的。至于微信流量，在算力这个事上，可以略过。04结语说了这么多，不管逻辑自洽不自洽，其实还是得承认，市场讯息万变，答案并不是简单的yes 或 no。尤其是对于腾讯，钱又有，能力也不差。还有一点很重要，那就是其庞大的数据资源，包括社交、娱乐、购物、支付、金融等等，涵盖了各个领域。这些数据在AI时代价值连城，是训练和推理AI模型最重要的“原材料”。因此，如果因为腾讯求稳，就说它不行了，也不尽然。而且，他们已经正式对外宣布，2026年AI投入将“至少翻倍”，并调整资金优先级——减少回购，为AI算力让路。回到股价，现在鹅厂和资本的博弈，确实很焦灼。但我想，这对企业自身乃至整个AI产业、资本市场、投资者，甚至更广阔的领域，都绝不是坏事。而且，任何人都不能排除，哪天它启动大改革，全力以赴做AI，逻辑反转，绝地反弹的可能性。要知道，这种旧科技公司翻身的案例，在资本市场上并不少，例如苹果、微软。因为很多时候，向左还是向右，就在老板的一念之间。以资本的嗅觉，一旦他们觉得你逻辑反转了，扫货的速度，那就是超音速。至于这场博弈终局会是如此，我们这里不再推测了，一切等时间证明吧。（全文完）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":1.97,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"00700":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":570515660349656,"gmtCreate":1780292792820,"gmtModify":1780294136772,"author":{"id":"3474922744686452","authorId":"3474922744686452","name":"宝贝歪歪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474922744686452","idStr":"3474922744686452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","listText":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","text":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570515660349656","repostId":"2639606596","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2639606596","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1780126241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2639606596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-30 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"暴跌2万亿！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2639606596","media":"格隆汇","summary":"还行吗？","content":"<html><body><p>本文作者 | 深鹏</p><p><span><span>数据</span></span><span><span>支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-ab365baf-330d-4094-bb61-345e0812125b.jpg?guru_height=44&guru_width=1080&guru_size=6688\"/></p><p><span><span><span>经历了连日的下跌，周五<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>终于反弹了。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>游戏发布会上，</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不过，去年</span></span><span><span>9</span></span><span><span>月时，其股价曾经冲高到</span></span><span><span>677</span></span><span><span>港元，距离</span></span><span><span>21</span></span><span><span>年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过</span></span><span><span>30%</span></span><span><span>，市值蒸发超过</span></span><span><span>2</span></span><span><span>万亿港币。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/54879-62f1e81e-bc52-4a51-bb2a-70d3e8a8bd18.jpg?guru_height=554&guru_width=865&guru_size=57506\"/></p><p><span><span><span>从走势上看，虽然中间有一些反弹，但下行趋势确实很明显。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>吊诡的是，同一时期交出的财报并不难看</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>游戏收入稳健增长，广告业务增速亮眼，微信月活稳居</span></span><span><span>14</span></span><span><span>亿以上。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>业绩在涨，股价在跌。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>究竟是意料之外，还是情理之中？</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">怎么啦？</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>市值的下跌，虽然有一些交易层、资金层和政策层的原因，但最被广泛接受的解释，是其在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>上投入不足，进展缓慢。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>毕竟，现在很多科技公司的估值溢价，只因两个字：</span></span><b><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>有一张图很直观，元宝明显落后，这与微信在社交领域中的绝对垄断地位形成鲜明对比。</span></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/534af-291a9493-c9a7-4ff0-92f2-4ca160eed8de.jpg?guru_height=381&guru_width=579&guru_size=30932\"/></p><p><span><span><span>更不安的是，抖音系应用的用户时长占比在</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>1</span></span><span><span>月达到</span></span><span><span>37.4%</span></span><span><span>，首次超过腾讯的</span></span><span><span>30.0%</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>从产业端的角度看，同行都在砸钱做</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>算力投资，它却异常低调和克制。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2025</span></span><span><span>年，</span></span><span><span>其</span></span><span><span>资本开支</span></span><span><span>792</span></span><span><span>亿元，同比增长仅</span></span><span><span>3%</span></span><span><span>；同期字节跳动资本开支飙升至</span></span><span><span>1600</span></span><span><span>亿以上</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>26</span></span><span><span>年追加到</span></span><span><span>2000</span></span><span><span>亿，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a></span></span><span><span>3800</span></span><span><span>亿（未来数年累积）的资本开支，更是一度疯狂刷屏。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>是没有钱吗？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>当然不是。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>刚公布的</span></span><span><span>26Q1</span></span><span><span>财报，其现金及等价物高达</span></span><span><span>2178</span></span><span><span>亿，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>的</span></span><span><span>1315</span></span><span><span>亿，自由现金流（净流入）</span></span><span><span>567</span></span><span><span>亿，而阿里是净流出</span></span><span><span>173</span></span><span><span>亿。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>现在，全球科技巨头都在疯狂砸钱买</span></span><span><span>GPU</span></span><span><span>，虽然屡遭质疑，并因此导致股价大幅下跌，但反过来说，如果不肯投钱，后果会是什么呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>先发优势丧失！</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这可能是</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>投资最大的悖论：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>烧钱，利润和现金流跌，但估值有溢价（尽管也经常面对质疑）；不烧钱，利润和现金流保住，但估值溢价消失。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>腾讯的</span></span><span><span>PE</span></span><span><span>（</span></span><span><span>TTM</span></span><span><span>）已经跌穿</span></span><span><span>15</span></span><span><span>倍，落后于阿里（约</span></span><span><span>20</span></span><span><span>倍）。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种估值水位，已经滑向公用事业，不能说完全抹掉</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>溢价，但即使有，也很小了。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>当然，</span></span><span><span>也有观点认为，</span></span><span><span>这是</span></span><span><span>“等”字诀的体现</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>等算力成本下降，等国产替代成熟，等开源模型拉平差距</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>属于典型的</span></span><span><span>“追随者”策略</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但</span></span><span><span>资本是势利眼</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>既然你</span></span><span><span>“投入不足”</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>那我就</span></span><span><span>“先走为敬”了，等你哪天“又行了”，我再回来。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">旧路径</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>任何具体的经营行为、决策动作，其实都是战略层面的体现。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>腾讯在战略上，一直以</span></span><span><span>“稳”著称。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>将这种战略转化成具体的经营行为，一个是</span></span><span><span>“</span></span><b><span><span>对内做流量</span></span></b><span><span>”，</span><span>另一个是</span><span>“</span></span><b><span><span>对外做投资</span></span></b><span><span>”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为手握社交聊天工具这个天然流量王牌，以及社交、广告、游戏等天然的现金流工具，它当然有底气做这些行为。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>2015</span></span><span><span>年，</span></span><span><span>小马哥</span></span><span><span>在全球合作伙伴大会上首次公开阐释了这一理念：</span></span><span><span>“我喜欢自留‘半条命’这个说法，把另外半条命交给合作伙伴。”</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>此后，这一表述成为</span></span><span><span>公司</span></span><span><span>战略思想的标签</span></span><span><span>：</span></span><b><span><span>只做自己最擅长的事情，把其他领域让给生态伙伴。</span></span></b></span></p><p><span><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>2016</span></span><span><span>年与清华大学经管学院院长的对谈中，</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>进一步阐述了这一理念的演化逻辑：</span></span><span><span>“几年前，腾讯的战略是不开放的，很多业务都自己做，好多都失败。我们电商做不过人家，卖掉了；搜索也一样。我们思考如何让各种物种在大树下成长？如何让大树变成一片森林？”</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这套逻辑的底层是风险规避思维：与其在非核心领域与专业对手死磕，不如通过投资和合作建立生态。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这既是一种战略选择，也是一种资源约束下的生存智慧。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>与</span></span><span><span>“半条命”理论相辅相成的，是</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>对</span></span><span><span>“速度”的独特理解。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年初的员工大会上，</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>明确表示：</span></span><span><span>“每个企业的基因不同、体质不同，腾讯的风格就是稳扎稳打。”</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>他强调，在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>战略上，腾讯有自己的考虑和节奏，核心是“产品的长期竞争力和用户的体验”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种</span></span><span><span>“稳扎稳打”体现在具体的战略判断上。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>面对外界对</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>投入不足的质疑，</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>曾给出一个极具代表性的类比：</span></span><span><span>“对于工业革命而言，早一个月拿出电灯泡，在长周期维度下并不那么重要。”</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这种理念与</span></span><span><span>其</span></span><span><span>核心业务的属性高度匹配：</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>社交和游戏业务具有极强的网络效应和用户粘性，一旦建立起优势，很难被颠覆。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因此，</span></span><span><span>他</span></span><span><span>有底气</span></span><span><span>“等一等”，让竞争对手先去试错，自己再择机入场。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>在游戏、社交网络、支付领域，都曾验证过这一路径的有效性</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>也形成了</span></span><span><span>在核心业务上保持稳健，在新业务上保持克制</span></span><span><span>的经营风格。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">开新路？</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>要说腾讯在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>上毫不作为，也不对。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>从</span></span><span><span>公开信息</span></span><span><span>中</span></span><span><span>，</span></span><span><span>其</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>领域投资</span></span><span><span>是有布局的，而且收益上还相当可以。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>例如，</span></span><span><span>MiniMax</span></span><span><span>上市后回报</span></span><span><span>19.78</span></span><span><span>倍，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>回报</span></span><span><span>36.6</span></span><span><span>倍，摩尔线程约</span></span><span><span>17</span></span><span><span>倍。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不过，在自建方面，确实没有太多动作。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>暂时可以得出一个结论，他依然沿用过去的思维。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>于是，最核心问题来了，过去的成功路径，是否还适用于</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>时代呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>说实话，现在还真的无法定论。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不过，这并不妨碍我们做一个推理，先声明，以下推理都是基于已经公开信息，无法穿透到企业内部，存在未尽事宜，仅供参考。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>即：如果沿用</span></span><span><span>“给钱给流量”的做法，会呈现什么样的一个情景呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>比如，如果看上了一个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>，腾讯可以几十亿上百亿地入股，并把微信的流量都倒给它。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但创业公司拿到了钱，也拿到了流量，是否就可以成长为一个头部</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型公司呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>资金和流量当然是好东西，但最终也要取决于他们的模型能力，比如参数、训练效果、推理能力，还有具体的市占率、渗透率等等。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>更直白的解释是，如果豆包的回答确实比元宝好，用户会无视微信里满屏的元宝接口，也不会介意从微信切换到豆包</span></span><span><span>APP</span></span><span><span>所浪费的时间。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>不能说对外投资完全不行，因为</span></span><span><span>open AI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>claude</span></span><span><span>就是成功例子。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>问题只是，目前模型公司基本呈现三足鼎立的态势，美国是</span></span><span><span>open AI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>claude</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>gemini</span></span><span><span>，中国是豆包、阿里和</span></span><span><span>DS</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>腾讯即便有机会入股这些公司，但股权占比不会高，主导权更别提了，而排名靠后的模型公司，价格很便宜，主导权也给你，但你还想要吗？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这让我不由得回想起当年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这个经典的失败案例，说明当头部阵营（当年是</span></span><span><span>IOS</span></span><span><span>、安卓）确立之后，即使再有钱，技术能力也很顶级，也难撼动。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为</span></span><span><span>IT</span></span><span><span>世界存在一个物理定律</span></span><span><span>--</span></span><b><span><span>赢家通吃</span></span></b><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>算力的问题，逻辑其实也一样，腾讯可以看上一些专门提供算力的公司（海外就有像</span></span><span><span>coreweave</span></span><span><span>这类纯算力出租商），然后大把大把地给钱，又给很多社交媒体流量，但这就能催生出一个大型</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>云计算公司呢？</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>如果说模型还可以用</span></span><span><span>open AI</span></span><span><span>、</span></span><span><span>claude</span></span><span><span>扯一下，这个问题就没有“帮手”了。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为，直到现在，大厂们全都是自己建算力，他们也会做一些外购，但比例都不高，用做暂时过渡或小比例互补。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>正如硬币不可能同时呈现两面，对于自建算力这个事，烧钱的和不烧钱的，肯定有一个是错的。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>至于微信流量，在算力这个事上，可以略过。</span></span></span></p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">04</font></span></strong></h3><h3><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">结语</font></span></strong></span></h3><p><span><span><span>说了这么多，不管逻辑自洽不自洽，其实还是得承认，市场讯息万变，答案并不是简单的</span></span><span><span>yes </span></span><span><span>或 </span></span><span><span>no</span></span><span><span>。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>尤其是对于腾讯，钱又有，能力也不差。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>还有一点很重要，那就是其庞大的数据资源，包括社交、娱乐、购物、支付、金融等等，涵盖了各个领域。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>这些数据在</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>时代价值连城，是训练和推理</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>模型最重要的“原材料”。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因此，如果因为腾讯求稳，就说它不行了，也不尽然。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而且，他们已经正式对外宣布，</span></span><span><span>2026</span></span><span><span>年</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>投入将“至少翻倍”，并调整资金优先级——减少回购，为</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>算力让路。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>回到股价，现在鹅厂和资本的博弈，确实很焦灼。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>但我想，这对企业自身乃至整个</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>产业、资本市场、投资者，甚至更广阔的领域，都绝不是坏事。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>而且，任何人都不能排除，哪天它启动大改革，全力以赴做</span></span><span><span>AI</span></span><span><span>，逻辑反转，绝地反弹的可能性。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>要知道，这种旧科技公司翻身的案例，在资本市场上并不少，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、微软。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>因为很多时候，向左还是向右，就在老板的一念之间。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>以资本的嗅觉，一旦他们觉得你逻辑反转了，扫货的速度，那就是超音速。</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>至于这场博弈终局会是如此，我们这里不再推测了，一切等时间证明吧。</span></span><span><span>（全文完）</span></span></span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>暴跌2万亿！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暴跌2万亿！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-30 15:30 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文作者 | 深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）经历了连日的下跌，周五腾讯终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。从走势上看，虽然...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/192cd-95c90cf0-7720-4341-8632-9695efae6579.jpg?guru_height=5344&guru_width=9504&guru_size=2660124","relate_stocks":{"LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0828238088.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLBL EMGNG MKT OPPS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1725190679.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS MULTI-ASSET \"A\" (HKD) INC MF","IE00BF5LJ272.USD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Global Emerging Markets A Acc USD","LU0700851271.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS MULTI-ASSET \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2362540622.SGD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001903.USD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity USD","LU0348783233.USD":"安联东方收入型 CI A Dis美元","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","SG9999006514.SGD":"United Asia Consumer Fund 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2639606596","content_text":"本文作者 | 深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）经历了连日的下跌，周五腾讯终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。从走势上看，虽然中间有一些反弹，但下行趋势确实很明显。吊诡的是，同一时期交出的财报并不难看，游戏收入稳健增长，广告业务增速亮眼，微信月活稳居14亿以上。业绩在涨，股价在跌。究竟是意料之外，还是情理之中？01怎么啦？市值的下跌，虽然有一些交易层、资金层和政策层的原因，但最被广泛接受的解释，是其在AI上投入不足，进展缓慢。毕竟，现在很多科技公司的估值溢价，只因两个字：AI。有一张图很直观，元宝明显落后，这与微信在社交领域中的绝对垄断地位形成鲜明对比。更不安的是，抖音系应用的用户时长占比在2026年1月达到37.4%，首次超过腾讯的30.0%。从产业端的角度看，同行都在砸钱做AI算力投资，它却异常低调和克制。2025年，其资本开支792亿元，同比增长仅3%；同期字节跳动资本开支飙升至1600亿以上，26年追加到2000亿，而阿里3800亿（未来数年累积）的资本开支，更是一度疯狂刷屏。是没有钱吗？当然不是。刚公布的26Q1财报，其现金及等价物高达2178亿，超过阿里的1315亿，自由现金流（净流入）567亿，而阿里是净流出173亿。现在，全球科技巨头都在疯狂砸钱买GPU，虽然屡遭质疑，并因此导致股价大幅下跌，但反过来说，如果不肯投钱，后果会是什么呢？先发优势丧失！这可能是AI投资最大的悖论：烧钱，利润和现金流跌，但估值有溢价（尽管也经常面对质疑）；不烧钱，利润和现金流保住，但估值溢价消失。腾讯的PE（TTM）已经跌穿15倍，落后于阿里（约20倍）。这种估值水位，已经滑向公用事业，不能说完全抹掉AI溢价，但即使有，也很小了。当然，也有观点认为，这是“等”字诀的体现，等算力成本下降，等国产替代成熟，等开源模型拉平差距，属于典型的“追随者”策略。但资本是势利眼，既然你“投入不足”，那我就“先走为敬”了，等你哪天“又行了”，我再回来。02旧路径任何具体的经营行为、决策动作，其实都是战略层面的体现。腾讯在战略上，一直以“稳”著称。将这种战略转化成具体的经营行为，一个是“对内做流量”，另一个是“对外做投资”。因为手握社交聊天工具这个天然流量王牌，以及社交、广告、游戏等天然的现金流工具，它当然有底气做这些行为。2015年，小马哥在全球合作伙伴大会上首次公开阐释了这一理念：“我喜欢自留‘半条命’这个说法，把另外半条命交给合作伙伴。”此后，这一表述成为公司战略思想的标签：只做自己最擅长的事情，把其他领域让给生态伙伴。在2016年与清华大学经管学院院长的对谈中，他进一步阐述了这一理念的演化逻辑：“几年前，腾讯的战略是不开放的，很多业务都自己做，好多都失败。我们电商做不过人家，卖掉了；搜索也一样。我们思考如何让各种物种在大树下成长？如何让大树变成一片森林？”这套逻辑的底层是风险规避思维：与其在非核心领域与专业对手死磕，不如通过投资和合作建立生态。这既是一种战略选择，也是一种资源约束下的生存智慧。与“半条命”理论相辅相成的，是他对“速度”的独特理解。在2026年初的员工大会上，他明确表示：“每个企业的基因不同、体质不同，腾讯的风格就是稳扎稳打。”他强调，在AI战略上，腾讯有自己的考虑和节奏，核心是“产品的长期竞争力和用户的体验”。这种“稳扎稳打”体现在具体的战略判断上。面对外界对AI投入不足的质疑，他曾给出一个极具代表性的类比：“对于工业革命而言，早一个月拿出电灯泡，在长周期维度下并不那么重要。”这种理念与其核心业务的属性高度匹配：社交和游戏业务具有极强的网络效应和用户粘性，一旦建立起优势，很难被颠覆。因此，他有底气“等一等”，让竞争对手先去试错，自己再择机入场。在游戏、社交网络、支付领域，都曾验证过这一路径的有效性，也形成了在核心业务上保持稳健，在新业务上保持克制的经营风格。03开新路？要说腾讯在AI上毫不作为，也不对。从公开信息中，其AI领域投资是有布局的，而且收益上还相当可以。例如，MiniMax上市后回报19.78倍，智谱回报36.6倍，摩尔线程约17倍。不过，在自建方面，确实没有太多动作。暂时可以得出一个结论，他依然沿用过去的思维。于是，最核心问题来了，过去的成功路径，是否还适用于AI时代呢？说实话，现在还真的无法定论。不过，这并不妨碍我们做一个推理，先声明，以下推理都是基于已经公开信息，无法穿透到企业内部，存在未尽事宜，仅供参考。即：如果沿用“给钱给流量”的做法，会呈现什么样的一个情景呢？比如，如果看上了一个AI模型创业公司，腾讯可以几十亿上百亿地入股，并把微信的流量都倒给它。但创业公司拿到了钱，也拿到了流量，是否就可以成长为一个头部AI模型公司呢？资金和流量当然是好东西，但最终也要取决于他们的模型能力，比如参数、训练效果、推理能力，还有具体的市占率、渗透率等等。更直白的解释是，如果豆包的回答确实比元宝好，用户会无视微信里满屏的元宝接口，也不会介意从微信切换到豆包APP所浪费的时间。不能说对外投资完全不行，因为open AI、claude就是成功例子。问题只是，目前模型公司基本呈现三足鼎立的态势，美国是open AI、claude、gemini，中国是豆包、阿里和DS。腾讯即便有机会入股这些公司，但股权占比不会高，主导权更别提了，而排名靠后的模型公司，价格很便宜，主导权也给你，但你还想要吗？这让我不由得回想起当年微软收购诺基亚。这个经典的失败案例，说明当头部阵营（当年是IOS、安卓）确立之后，即使再有钱，技术能力也很顶级，也难撼动。因为IT世界存在一个物理定律--赢家通吃。算力的问题，逻辑其实也一样，腾讯可以看上一些专门提供算力的公司（海外就有像coreweave这类纯算力出租商），然后大把大把地给钱，又给很多社交媒体流量，但这就能催生出一个大型AI云计算公司呢？如果说模型还可以用open AI、claude扯一下，这个问题就没有“帮手”了。因为，直到现在，大厂们全都是自己建算力，他们也会做一些外购，但比例都不高，用做暂时过渡或小比例互补。正如硬币不可能同时呈现两面，对于自建算力这个事，烧钱的和不烧钱的，肯定有一个是错的。至于微信流量，在算力这个事上，可以略过。04结语说了这么多，不管逻辑自洽不自洽，其实还是得承认，市场讯息万变，答案并不是简单的yes 或 no。尤其是对于腾讯，钱又有，能力也不差。还有一点很重要，那就是其庞大的数据资源，包括社交、娱乐、购物、支付、金融等等，涵盖了各个领域。这些数据在AI时代价值连城，是训练和推理AI模型最重要的“原材料”。因此，如果因为腾讯求稳，就说它不行了，也不尽然。而且，他们已经正式对外宣布，2026年AI投入将“至少翻倍”，并调整资金优先级——减少回购，为AI算力让路。回到股价，现在鹅厂和资本的博弈，确实很焦灼。但我想，这对企业自身乃至整个AI产业、资本市场、投资者，甚至更广阔的领域，都绝不是坏事。而且，任何人都不能排除，哪天它启动大改革，全力以赴做AI，逻辑反转，绝地反弹的可能性。要知道，这种旧科技公司翻身的案例，在资本市场上并不少，例如苹果、微软。因为很多时候，向左还是向右，就在老板的一念之间。以资本的嗅觉，一旦他们觉得你逻辑反转了，扫货的速度，那就是超音速。至于这场博弈终局会是如此，我们这里不再推测了，一切等时间证明吧。（全文完）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":1.97,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"00700":1.97}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588463253279632,"gmtCreate":1784699221539,"gmtModify":1784701915519,"author":{"id":"3474922744686452","authorId":"3474922744686452","name":"宝贝歪歪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474922744686452","idStr":"3474922744686452"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"最近这些公募不得亏麻了","listText":"最近这些公募不得亏麻了","text":"最近这些公募不得亏麻了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588463253279632","repostId":"1159240255","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1159240255","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1784696214,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159240255?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-22 12:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"公募基金二季报：腾讯退出前十大重仓股，成为Q2被减仓最多的公司","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159240255","media":"大滑头","summary":"2026年一季度，腾讯已经被公募减持245.74亿元，同样位居减持榜首。连续两个季度下来，腾讯在公募重仓口径下的减持市值超过430亿元。当时，近1200只基金重仓持有腾讯，持股数量超过1.5亿股，重仓市值接近694亿港元。基金经理卖腾讯，也存在现实的组合管理因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月22日，腾讯控股盘中一度跌近6%。这场突如其来的下跌，直接导火索来自前一晚披露的公募基金二季报：<strong>腾讯退出公募前十大重仓股，并以187.37亿元的减持市值，成为二季度被公募减仓最多的公司。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23731919562df80e6e286b1721f3bea\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这笔资金撤退并非一天之内发生。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年一季度，腾讯已经被公募减持245.74亿元，同样位居减持榜首。连续两个季度下来，腾讯在公募重仓口径下的减持市值超过430亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要注意，所谓“减持市值”是根据基金季报持仓变化统计得出的历史数据，并不等于7月22日当天有187亿元资金集中卖出。二季报披露真正产生的影响，是把此前隐藏在水面下的机构调仓公开化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">问题也随之而来：一家利润仍在增长、现金流充裕、持续回购股票的公司，为什么会被公募资金连续抛售？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">答案藏在当前市场最激烈的一场资金迁徙中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一、从头号重仓到减持第一，腾讯输给了资金的“时间表”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">时间倒回2025年一季度，腾讯曾取代宁德时代，首次成为公募基金头号重仓股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当时，近1200只基金重仓持有腾讯，持股数量超过1.5亿股，重仓市值接近694亿港元。港股互联网估值修复、游戏业务恢复增长、广告利润率改善，共同推动腾讯成为基金经理眼中的“低估值科技核心资产”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一年多之后，市场偏好已经完全改变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年二季度，公募前十大重仓股几乎被AI硬件产业链占领。中际旭创、新易盛位居前两名，寒武纪、中微公司、北方华创、兆易创新、源杰科技等公司进入前十。光模块、AI芯片、半导体设备和电子制造，成为主动基金最集中的配置方向；腾讯、阿里巴巴、贵州茅台、中国平安等传统核心资产则集体退出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种变化意味着，基金经理并没有简单地从科技股撤退，而是在科技板块内部重新选择增长速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯代表的是相对稳定的利润、现金流和回购。AI硬件公司代表的是订单增长、产能扩张和利润预测快速上修。在一场以年度排名和短期业绩为考核尺度的行情中，后者天然更容易获得资金追逐。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯2025年调整后归母净利润已经达到2596亿元，同比增长17%。如此庞大的利润基数，让公司即使增加数百亿元利润，增速也很难与处于景气爆发期的光模块、芯片设备公司相比。对长期资金而言，这是确定性；对追求超额收益的主动基金而言，却意味着弹性不足。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公募卖出的其实是一段增长速度，而非腾讯的生存能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>二、腾讯依然赚钱，但AI正在重新分配利润</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从财务数据看，腾讯并没有出现经营恶化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年，公司收入达到7518亿元，同比增长14%；调整后归母净利润增长17%至2596亿元；自由现金流达到1826亿元，同比增长18%。全年腾讯还投入约800亿港元回购股票。无论盈利质量、现金储备还是股东回报能力，腾讯仍是中国互联网公司中最稳健的资产之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">进入2026年，这种稳定性仍在延续。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度腾讯收入1965亿元，同比增长9%；调整后归母净利润679亿元，同比增长11%。营销服务收入增长20%，企业服务收入增长20%，AI广告推荐已经推动广告转化效率和定价提升，AI相关云服务需求也在增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但财报中还有一组更值得关注的数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯一季度调整后经营利润增长9%；剔除混元、元宝、CodeBuddy、WorkBuddy和QClaw等新AI产品的收入、成本和费用后，经营利润原本可以增长17%。换句话说，新一轮AI投入已经将腾讯的经营利润增速压低了约8个百分点。同期，公司资本开支达到319亿元，同比增长16%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这正是基金经理最难定价的地方。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI已经能够帮助腾讯改善广告效率、提升游戏运营能力和推动云业务增长，但这些收益目前主要体现为原有业务的效率提升。与此同时，模型训练、算力基础设施、人才招聘和AI产品推广产生的成本，会立即进入财务报表。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场由此看到了一种暂时错位：AI收益正在缓慢渗透，AI成本却快速确认。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于腾讯而言，这些投入是在为微信AI Agent、混元模型和企业级智能体建立长期入口；对于考核周期只有几个季度的资金而言，利润增速放缓会直接影响估值提升空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯的AI优势需要时间兑现，公募基金的净值排名却不会暂停。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三、被卖出的还有“互联网估值”，资金正在追逐产业链利润</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯遭遇减持，还反映出AI行情定价方式的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI行情早期，市场愿意为模型能力、用户入口和应用想象力买单。进入资本开支加速阶段后，资金开始优先寻找能够直接确认收入的环节：光模块卖出了多少、芯片设备交付了多少、存储价格涨了多少、订单能见度能够延伸到几个季度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">硬件公司获得订单后，收入和利润可以迅速体现在财报中；平台公司推出AI产品后，还要经历用户教育、商业模式设计、推理成本控制和生态整合。两条路径最终都可能创造价值，但利润兑现的时间并不同步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯恰好处在最容易被资金忽视的阶段：传统业务已经足够成熟，AI业务又尚未形成独立且可量化的收入曲线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也解释了一个看似矛盾的现象：腾讯一边被公募减持，一边仍然具备强劲现金流、庞大用户入口和持续回购能力。资金降低腾讯仓位，更多是在提高组合对AI景气度的敏感性，并不能直接推导出腾讯基本面见顶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基金经理卖腾讯，也存在现实的组合管理因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯市值大、流动性好、机构持仓长期集中。当基金需要迅速增加光模块、芯片和半导体设备仓位时，减持腾讯、阿里和传统龙头，是释放资金最直接的方式。腾讯因此承担了“资金来源股”的角色：企业经营没有发生突变，却会在市场风格剧烈切换时承受集中卖压。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种卖压具有自我强化效应。基金减仓压低股价，股价弱势降低短期相对收益，排名压力又促使更多资金转向强势板块。直到腾讯估值足够低，或者AI商业化出现能够被财报验证的拐点，资金循环才可能反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>结语：公募在追逐利润斜率，腾讯在等待AI收入拐点</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯被公募大规模减持，是一场关于时间、弹性和机会成本的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公募基金需要在有限仓位中追逐增长最快的产业环节，当前答案指向光模块、芯片和半导体设备。腾讯拥有更稳定的利润、更强的现金流和更广阔的用户入口，但这些优势暂时无法提供同等幅度的盈利预测上修。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，腾讯接下来真正需要证明的，并非游戏还能不能赚钱、广告还能不能增长。这些业务已经足够成熟。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场等待的是三件事：AI投入增速何时趋稳，微信及企业级AI产品何时形成规模收入，AI带来的新增利润何时超过模型和算力成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一旦这三个问题得到财报验证，腾讯的身份可能从“成熟互联网现金流资产”重新转向“AI应用平台”。在此之前，公募更愿意购买看得见的订单；腾讯只能用现金流、回购和持续增长，为下一轮估值切换争取时间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公募资金卖掉的是当下的速度，腾讯需要交付的是未来的第二条增长曲线。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1784696265122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>公募基金二季报：腾讯退出前十大重仓股，成为Q2被减仓最多的公司</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n公募基金二季报：腾讯退出前十大重仓股，成为Q2被减仓最多的公司\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-22 12:56 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_3k-sLbXeIg0tqs4Td7qxg><strong>大滑头</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月22日，腾讯控股盘中一度跌近6%。这场突如其来的下跌，直接导火索来自前一晚披露的公募基金二季报：腾讯退出公募前十大重仓股，并以187.37亿元的减持市值，成为二季度被公募减仓最多的公司。但这笔资金撤退并非一天之内发生。2026年一季度，腾讯已经被公募减持245.74亿元，同样位居减持榜首。连续两个季度下来，腾讯在公募重仓口径下的减持市值超过430亿元。需要注意，所谓“减持市值”是根据基金季报...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_3k-sLbXeIg0tqs4Td7qxg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_3k-sLbXeIg0tqs4Td7qxg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159240255","content_text":"7月22日，腾讯控股盘中一度跌近6%。这场突如其来的下跌，直接导火索来自前一晚披露的公募基金二季报：腾讯退出公募前十大重仓股，并以187.37亿元的减持市值，成为二季度被公募减仓最多的公司。但这笔资金撤退并非一天之内发生。2026年一季度，腾讯已经被公募减持245.74亿元，同样位居减持榜首。连续两个季度下来，腾讯在公募重仓口径下的减持市值超过430亿元。需要注意，所谓“减持市值”是根据基金季报持仓变化统计得出的历史数据，并不等于7月22日当天有187亿元资金集中卖出。二季报披露真正产生的影响，是把此前隐藏在水面下的机构调仓公开化。问题也随之而来：一家利润仍在增长、现金流充裕、持续回购股票的公司，为什么会被公募资金连续抛售？答案藏在当前市场最激烈的一场资金迁徙中。一、从头号重仓到减持第一，腾讯输给了资金的“时间表”时间倒回2025年一季度，腾讯曾取代宁德时代，首次成为公募基金头号重仓股。当时，近1200只基金重仓持有腾讯，持股数量超过1.5亿股，重仓市值接近694亿港元。港股互联网估值修复、游戏业务恢复增长、广告利润率改善，共同推动腾讯成为基金经理眼中的“低估值科技核心资产”。一年多之后，市场偏好已经完全改变。2026年二季度，公募前十大重仓股几乎被AI硬件产业链占领。中际旭创、新易盛位居前两名，寒武纪、中微公司、北方华创、兆易创新、源杰科技等公司进入前十。光模块、AI芯片、半导体设备和电子制造，成为主动基金最集中的配置方向；腾讯、阿里巴巴、贵州茅台、中国平安等传统核心资产则集体退出。这种变化意味着，基金经理并没有简单地从科技股撤退，而是在科技板块内部重新选择增长速度。腾讯代表的是相对稳定的利润、现金流和回购。AI硬件公司代表的是订单增长、产能扩张和利润预测快速上修。在一场以年度排名和短期业绩为考核尺度的行情中，后者天然更容易获得资金追逐。腾讯2025年调整后归母净利润已经达到2596亿元，同比增长17%。如此庞大的利润基数，让公司即使增加数百亿元利润，增速也很难与处于景气爆发期的光模块、芯片设备公司相比。对长期资金而言，这是确定性；对追求超额收益的主动基金而言，却意味着弹性不足。公募卖出的其实是一段增长速度，而非腾讯的生存能力。二、腾讯依然赚钱，但AI正在重新分配利润从财务数据看，腾讯并没有出现经营恶化。2025年，公司收入达到7518亿元，同比增长14%；调整后归母净利润增长17%至2596亿元；自由现金流达到1826亿元，同比增长18%。全年腾讯还投入约800亿港元回购股票。无论盈利质量、现金储备还是股东回报能力，腾讯仍是中国互联网公司中最稳健的资产之一。进入2026年，这种稳定性仍在延续。一季度腾讯收入1965亿元，同比增长9%；调整后归母净利润679亿元，同比增长11%。营销服务收入增长20%，企业服务收入增长20%，AI广告推荐已经推动广告转化效率和定价提升，AI相关云服务需求也在增加。但财报中还有一组更值得关注的数据。腾讯一季度调整后经营利润增长9%；剔除混元、元宝、CodeBuddy、WorkBuddy和QClaw等新AI产品的收入、成本和费用后，经营利润原本可以增长17%。换句话说，新一轮AI投入已经将腾讯的经营利润增速压低了约8个百分点。同期，公司资本开支达到319亿元，同比增长16%。这正是基金经理最难定价的地方。AI已经能够帮助腾讯改善广告效率、提升游戏运营能力和推动云业务增长，但这些收益目前主要体现为原有业务的效率提升。与此同时，模型训练、算力基础设施、人才招聘和AI产品推广产生的成本，会立即进入财务报表。市场由此看到了一种暂时错位：AI收益正在缓慢渗透，AI成本却快速确认。对于腾讯而言，这些投入是在为微信AI Agent、混元模型和企业级智能体建立长期入口；对于考核周期只有几个季度的资金而言，利润增速放缓会直接影响估值提升空间。腾讯的AI优势需要时间兑现，公募基金的净值排名却不会暂停。三、被卖出的还有“互联网估值”，资金正在追逐产业链利润腾讯遭遇减持，还反映出AI行情定价方式的变化。AI行情早期，市场愿意为模型能力、用户入口和应用想象力买单。进入资本开支加速阶段后，资金开始优先寻找能够直接确认收入的环节：光模块卖出了多少、芯片设备交付了多少、存储价格涨了多少、订单能见度能够延伸到几个季度。硬件公司获得订单后，收入和利润可以迅速体现在财报中；平台公司推出AI产品后，还要经历用户教育、商业模式设计、推理成本控制和生态整合。两条路径最终都可能创造价值，但利润兑现的时间并不同步。腾讯恰好处在最容易被资金忽视的阶段：传统业务已经足够成熟，AI业务又尚未形成独立且可量化的收入曲线。这也解释了一个看似矛盾的现象：腾讯一边被公募减持，一边仍然具备强劲现金流、庞大用户入口和持续回购能力。资金降低腾讯仓位，更多是在提高组合对AI景气度的敏感性，并不能直接推导出腾讯基本面见顶。基金经理卖腾讯，也存在现实的组合管理因素。腾讯市值大、流动性好、机构持仓长期集中。当基金需要迅速增加光模块、芯片和半导体设备仓位时，减持腾讯、阿里和传统龙头，是释放资金最直接的方式。腾讯因此承担了“资金来源股”的角色：企业经营没有发生突变，却会在市场风格剧烈切换时承受集中卖压。这种卖压具有自我强化效应。基金减仓压低股价，股价弱势降低短期相对收益，排名压力又促使更多资金转向强势板块。直到腾讯估值足够低，或者AI商业化出现能够被财报验证的拐点，资金循环才可能反转。结语：公募在追逐利润斜率，腾讯在等待AI收入拐点腾讯被公募大规模减持，是一场关于时间、弹性和机会成本的选择。公募基金需要在有限仓位中追逐增长最快的产业环节，当前答案指向光模块、芯片和半导体设备。腾讯拥有更稳定的利润、更强的现金流和更广阔的用户入口，但这些优势暂时无法提供同等幅度的盈利预测上修。因此，腾讯接下来真正需要证明的，并非游戏还能不能赚钱、广告还能不能增长。这些业务已经足够成熟。市场等待的是三件事：AI投入增速何时趋稳，微信及企业级AI产品何时形成规模收入，AI带来的新增利润何时超过模型和算力成本。一旦这三个问题得到财报验证，腾讯的身份可能从“成熟互联网现金流资产”重新转向“AI应用平台”。在此之前，公募更愿意购买看得见的订单；腾讯只能用现金流、回购和持续增长，为下一轮估值切换争取时间。公募资金卖掉的是当下的速度，腾讯需要交付的是未来的第二条增长曲线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":2,"TCEHY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
