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盲人摸大象

盲人摸大象

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盲人摸大象

00:39

[强]

盲人摸大象

12-05 22:08

美团与阿里，当然选阿里！阿里从行业与经营上都比美团有优势！

盲人摸大象

12-05 00:32

[强]

盲人摸大象

12-05 00:32

[强]

盲人摸大象

12-04 00:33

，1

意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增

盲人摸大象

12-03

上串下跳的，没个准！

美股异动 | 加密货币概念股上涨，BitMine涨超7%，Strategy涨近7%

盲人摸大象

11-22

[强][强]

盲人摸大象

11-22

[强]

盲人摸大象

11-22

仓位控制最重要‼️但理性的情绪控制是基础，不然很容易判断错误。

盲人摸大象

11-22

[强]

夜读｜谁来挽救当前美股的颓势？

盲人摸大象

11-22

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

夜读｜谁来挽救当前美股的颓势？

盲人摸大象

11-21

[强]

盲人摸大象

11-21

非农预计数据不佳，又是先涨后跌

盲人摸大象

11-20

[强][强][强]

盲人摸大象

11-20

[强][强]

盲人摸大象

11-19

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$真是一个大坑啊[捂脸][捂脸][捂脸]

盲人摸大象

11-18

👍

盲人摸大象

11-18

1

盲人摸大象

11-18

1

@辛勤的老蜜蜂:$特斯拉(TSLA)$

盲人摸大象

11-18

1

@RocketBull:$博通(AVGO)$

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198185238","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，就业市场面临的压力正在加大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c814666c27c1cc1ef673dedce5dcdd27\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">小型企业成为裁员重灾区。<strong>员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。</strong>相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">薪资增速同步放缓。<strong>留任员工的薪资同比增长4.4%，较10月下降0.1个百分点</strong>。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，雇主正在应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，招聘活动近期波动明显。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。期货交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对是否需要进一步放松政策存在疑虑。</p><h2 id=\"id_3536275615\">小型企业遭遇裁员潮</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">劳动力市场的疲软主要集中在小型企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，<strong>为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅</strong>，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。其中，20至49人规模的企业裁员<strong>7.4万人</strong>，贡献了小型企业裁员总量的大部分。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed1d4a9fa1d44c84fecd7234e49f1253\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"680\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此形成鲜明对比的是，员工数达到50人以上的大型企业实际净增9万个岗位，显示不同规模企业在当前经济环境下的抗压能力存在显著差异。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一总计3.2万人的就业下滑，较10月上修后的增加4.7万个岗位出现急剧转向。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson在声明中表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;近期招聘一直不稳定，雇主正应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，11月的放缓具有广泛性，但主要由小企业的收缩引领。&#34;</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1065308018\">行业表现分化明显</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就业数据在行业层面呈现广泛下滑趋势。专业和商业服务业裁员2.6万人，成为减员最多的行业。信息服务业减少2万个岗位，制造业裁员1.8万人，金融活动和建筑业各减少9000个岗位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仅有少数行业实现就业增长。教育和医疗服务业领涨，新增3.3万个岗位，休闲和酒店业增加1.3万个岗位。但这些增长不足以抵消其他行业的广泛下滑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85d4c02206352ee630f006026b2466a5\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"1779\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_154258377\">薪资增长降温</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">劳动力市场走弱的迹象同样体现在薪资数据上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室合作发布的报告显示，跳槽者的薪资增幅为6.3%，为2021年2月以来最低水平。<strong>留在原岗位的员工薪资增幅为4.4%</strong>。该数据基于覆盖超过2600万美国私营部门雇员的工资单。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd985990d600cb8a5b09f8f9822f8d3\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据报道，直到最近，经济学家还普遍认为劳动力市场处于低招聘、低解雇状态，但包括苹果公司和Verizon Communications在内的多家大型企业近期已裁员或宣布裁员计划，这可能推动失业率上升。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077836169\">美联储面临政策抉择</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份报告将成为美联储12月政策会议前的重要参考。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期货市场显示，交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对进一步放松政策持保留态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近几周，美联储政策制定者的观点出现分歧。一方认为降息是防止劳动力市场进一步恶化的必要手段，另一方则担心额外降息可能加剧通胀，而通胀水平仍显著高于美联储2%的目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国劳工统计局将于12月16日发布官方非农就业数据，该日期因政府关门而有所推迟。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-03 23:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198185238","content_text":"ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，就业市场面临的压力正在加大。小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。薪资增速同步放缓。留任员工的薪资同比增长4.4%，较10月下降0.1个百分点。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，雇主正在应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，招聘活动近期波动明显。这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。期货交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对是否需要进一步放松政策存在疑虑。小型企业遭遇裁员潮劳动力市场的疲软主要集中在小型企业。员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。其中，20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人，贡献了小型企业裁员总量的大部分。与此形成鲜明对比的是，员工数达到50人以上的大型企业实际净增9万个岗位，显示不同规模企业在当前经济环境下的抗压能力存在显著差异。这一总计3.2万人的就业下滑，较10月上修后的增加4.7万个岗位出现急剧转向。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson在声明中表示：\"近期招聘一直不稳定，雇主正应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，11月的放缓具有广泛性，但主要由小企业的收缩引领。\"行业表现分化明显就业数据在行业层面呈现广泛下滑趋势。专业和商业服务业裁员2.6万人，成为减员最多的行业。信息服务业减少2万个岗位，制造业裁员1.8万人，金融活动和建筑业各减少9000个岗位。仅有少数行业实现就业增长。教育和医疗服务业领涨，新增3.3万个岗位，休闲和酒店业增加1.3万个岗位。但这些增长不足以抵消其他行业的广泛下滑。薪资增长降温劳动力市场走弱的迹象同样体现在薪资数据上。ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室合作发布的报告显示，跳槽者的薪资增幅为6.3%，为2021年2月以来最低水平。留在原岗位的员工薪资增幅为4.4%。该数据基于覆盖超过2600万美国私营部门雇员的工资单。据报道，直到最近，经济学家还普遍认为劳动力市场处于低招聘、低解雇状态，但包括苹果公司和Verizon Communications在内的多家大型企业近期已裁员或宣布裁员计划，这可能推动失业率上升。美联储面临政策抉择这份报告将成为美联储12月政策会议前的重要参考。期货市场显示，交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对进一步放松政策持保留态度。近几周，美联储政策制定者的观点出现分歧。一方认为降息是防止劳动力市场进一步恶化的必要手段，另一方则担心额外降息可能加剧通胀，而通胀水平仍显著高于美联储2%的目标。美国劳工统计局将于12月16日发布官方非农就业数据，该日期因政府关门而有所推迟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":506515989648320,"gmtCreate":1764691805556,"gmtModify":1764691807900,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"上串下跳的，没个准！","listText":"上串下跳的，没个准！","text":"上串下跳的，没个准！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506515989648320","repostId":"1115073010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115073010","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1764686115,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115073010?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-02 22:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股异动 | 加密货币概念股上涨，BitMine涨超7%，Strategy涨近7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115073010","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月2日，加密货币概念股盘初上涨，$BitMine(BMNR)$涨超7%，$Strategy(MSTR)$涨近7%，$CleanSpark(CLSK)$涨超4%，$MARA Holdings(MARA)$、$Robinhood(HOOD)$、$Coinbase(COIN)$、$Circle(CRCL)$跟涨。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月2日，加密货币概念股盘初上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMNR\">BitMine</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">Strategy</a>涨近7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">CleanSpark</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">MARA Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">Circle</a>跟涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da722b79618ed4a5065f3c68801e5227\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股异动 | 加密货币概念股上涨，BitMine涨超7%，Strategy涨近7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股异动 | 加密货币概念股上涨，BitMine涨超7%，Strategy涨近7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-02 22:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月2日，加密货币概念股盘初上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMNR\">BitMine</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">Strategy</a>涨近7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">CleanSpark</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">MARA Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">Circle</a>跟涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da722b79618ed4a5065f3c68801e5227\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9712b6f035d7a01dae3855140d621802","relate_stocks":{"BK4595":"比特币概念","BK4596":"哈里斯概念","BMNR":"BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.","BK4600":"加密货币概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115073010","content_text":"12月2日，加密货币概念股盘初上涨，BitMine涨超7%，Strategy涨近7%，CleanSpark涨超4%，MARA Holdings、Robinhood、Coinbase、Circle跟涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BMNR":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502769896534744,"gmtCreate":1763774634425,"gmtModify":1763774636569,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强][强]","listText":"[强][强]","text":"[强][强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502769896534744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502769439055936,"gmtCreate":1763774595469,"gmtModify":1763774597494,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502769439055936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502673682534480,"gmtCreate":1763751517800,"gmtModify":1763751520318,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"仓位控制最重要‼️但理性的情绪控制是基础，不然很容易判断错误。","listText":"仓位控制最重要‼️但理性的情绪控制是基础，不然很容易判断错误。","text":"仓位控制最重要‼️但理性的情绪控制是基础，不然很容易判断错误。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502673682534480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000659","authorId":"9000000000000659","name":"CarolFelix","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000659","authorIdStr":"9000000000000659"},"content":"仓位管理确实需要强大的心理素质，心态崩了操作全乱","text":"仓位管理确实需要强大的心理素质，心态崩了操作全乱","html":"仓位管理确实需要强大的心理素质，心态崩了操作全乱"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502667630416640,"gmtCreate":1763750097458,"gmtModify":1763750099487,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502667630416640","repostId":"1150363539","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150363539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763739021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150363539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读｜谁来挽救当前美股的颓势？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150363539","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"但考虑到后续缺乏完整的官方经济数据，11月报告将延迟至12月16日发布，晚于FOMC会议时间，而美联储在9月和10月已经连续降息，12月再次降息的决策变得更加困难。而风险资产却呈现显著降温，比特币跌破9万美元，美股则在高开后大幅跳水，创下四月对等关税以来盘中最大逆转，英伟达财报的超预期并未挽救美股颓势，海外市场风险偏好仍在下行。英伟达的财报公布完，标志着长达3-4个月的业绩信息空窗期正式开始。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>阔别两个月后，9月美国非农“姗姗来迟”，如何理解这一份迟到的就业数据？</strong>9月非农公布的时点相对“尴尬”：如果数据正常发布，大超预期的新增非农可能提前一个月改变市场的乐观定价，但站在当前的时点上，数据似乎显得有些过时；但另一方面，由于11月就业报告的推迟，这又是美联储评估12月议息会议降息与否唯一的官方数据。</p><p><strong>我们认为，9月数据并未给出一致且明确的政策信号：超预期上行的新增非农和失业率互相矛盾，给了市场充分的解读空间，甚至可能进一步加剧了联储内部的分歧。</strong>随着宏观信息的逐步回归，利率逐步逼近点阵图终点（3.5%左右），后续联储的降息决策会更加犹豫，如果没有政治力量的干预，停止降息进入观察基本面变化似乎是合理的。</p><p><strong>而对于风险资产而言，</strong>对AI资本开支以及联储降息空间的担忧持续扰动风险偏好，英伟达的财报更像被市场交易为利多出尽。随着业绩信息空窗期的开始，市场短时间内找不到新的材料来炒作，调整才是对高估值的尊重，当然过度的担心似乎也没有必要。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b05ea96d55e23804388678d80997deea\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p><strong>具体来看，9月非农呈现出复杂且矛盾的信号：</strong></p><p><strong>一方面，新增非农就业人数超预期上行，</strong>11.9万人的增长相当于市场预期的两倍，而这一点我们在此前报告中早已提示，前期市场对劳动力市场走弱的风险定价到极致，而9月数据由于季调方法往往有上修风险，导致降息预期回调，不过因为政府关门导致这一影响明显滞后；</p><p><strong>从结构上来看，</strong>教育和保健（5.9万人）、休闲和住宿（4.7）行业贡献了最主要的就业增长，政府部门就业也在9月转为正增长（2.2万人）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2509f739556870afd2b5bd08af21647d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"772\"/></p><p><strong>但另一方面，前值的下修、失业率的走高等又给这份数据的强劲表现打了一定折扣。</strong>9月延续了今年以来劳工部的持续下修模式，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人，8月数据甚至一度下修至负增长区间(-0.4万人)；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1505280587f1634ad8e2a6207af45677\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"659\"/></p><p><strong>与此同时，</strong>失业率超预期上升至4.4%，创下阶段性新高，其中有劳动参与率回升的影响（9月劳动力参与率上升0.1pct至62.4%），日薪环比增速回落0.2pct至0.2%，这些数据的走弱一定程度上平抑了非农超预期的影响。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8833fb8082075d4ce496b60dd2cdc70\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><p><strong>因此，9月就业数据虽然“喜忧参半”，但整体还算相对平稳。</strong>至少做到了“有好消息也有坏消息”，使得“鸽”派和“鹰”派都有充足的论据支持，因此短期内不太能缓解美联储内部对于降息的分歧。但考虑到后续缺乏完整的官方经济数据，11月报告将延迟至12月16日发布，晚于FOMC会议时间，而美联储在9月和10月已经连续降息，12月再次降息的决策变得更加困难。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d510501bd453bc61f71399499ebe107\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"803\"/></p><p><strong>资产端的走势也反映出了市场对9月数据的纠结</strong>，数据公布后，利率敏感型资产如美元、美债利率、黄金反复上下横跳，但最终变动不大。<strong>而风险资产却呈现显著降温，比特币跌破9万美元，美股则在高开后大幅跳水，创下四月对等关税以来盘中最大逆转，</strong>英伟达财报的超预期并未挽救美股颓势，海外市场风险偏好仍在下行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d8065fe7929a3455e0057dd9cfa0f4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p><strong>那么，如何理解这半个月以来海外市场的风偏下降，后续的市场又怎么看呢？</strong>当市场忙着为下跌找原因的时候，市场也许只是想找个原因下跌。整体上无非就两个理由：一、担忧AI资本开支增速与ROIC无法收敛（动物精神）；二、担心美联储的降息空间。这两点（联储要宽松，AI投资火热，其实就是典型的金发女郎经济）正是十月政府关门到市场高点阶段的最重要助推器，可谓成也萧何，败也萧何。无论是经济的坏消息还是好消息似乎都能被市场交易为好消息，而风险就在于经济数据如果不上不下，因为这样既会让市场担心AI下游需求，又没有货币宽松的支持。<strong>一句话说，经济不好不坏变成了当下最差的情景。</strong></p><p><strong>回过头来看，43天的政府关门带来了一个宏观交易的空窗期，</strong>而勤奋的交易者们把原本三季报之后业绩空窗期中所有的潜在利好全部提前咀嚼一遍了（原本这个阶段宏观信息对市场的影响应该是显著的，包括关税对通胀的影响以及失业走弱的可持续性验证）。英伟达的财报公布完，标志着长达3-4个月的业绩信息空窗期正式开始。市场短时间内找不到新的材料来炒作，那么调整似乎才是对高估值的尊重，当然过度担心似乎也没有必要。</p><p><strong>宏观信息的回归会成为新的助推器吗？</strong>我们认为有难度，回到关门前我们对美国通胀和非农的基本判断：通胀在高关税商品9月逐渐摆上货架之后，未来一年同比读数都至少很难持续下降；与此同时，非农数据的季调方法也让年底的这几个月的新增就业人数读数可能偏高。其实降息到目前这个状态距离联储点阵图给的本轮降息终点（中性利率）已经不远。<strong>未来需要更坏的消息才能让联储回心转意，至少在明年的人事变动之前。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读｜谁来挽救当前美股的颓势？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-21 23:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWqI0erOTycvreQWf7cAzg><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>阔别两个月后，9月美国非农“姗姗来迟”，如何理解这一份迟到的就业数据？9月非农公布的时点相对“尴尬”：如果数据正常发布，大超预期的新增非农可能提前一个月改变市场的乐观定价，但站在当前的时点上，数据似乎显得有些过时；但另一方面，由于11月就业报告的推迟，这又是美联储评估12月议息会议降息与否唯一的官方数据。我们认为，9月数据并未给出一致且明确的政策信号：超预期上行的新增非农和失业率互相矛盾，给了市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWqI0erOTycvreQWf7cAzg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWqI0erOTycvreQWf7cAzg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150363539","content_text":"阔别两个月后，9月美国非农“姗姗来迟”，如何理解这一份迟到的就业数据？9月非农公布的时点相对“尴尬”：如果数据正常发布，大超预期的新增非农可能提前一个月改变市场的乐观定价，但站在当前的时点上，数据似乎显得有些过时；但另一方面，由于11月就业报告的推迟，这又是美联储评估12月议息会议降息与否唯一的官方数据。我们认为，9月数据并未给出一致且明确的政策信号：超预期上行的新增非农和失业率互相矛盾，给了市场充分的解读空间，甚至可能进一步加剧了联储内部的分歧。随着宏观信息的逐步回归，利率逐步逼近点阵图终点（3.5%左右），后续联储的降息决策会更加犹豫，如果没有政治力量的干预，停止降息进入观察基本面变化似乎是合理的。而对于风险资产而言，对AI资本开支以及联储降息空间的担忧持续扰动风险偏好，英伟达的财报更像被市场交易为利多出尽。随着业绩信息空窗期的开始，市场短时间内找不到新的材料来炒作，调整才是对高估值的尊重，当然过度的担心似乎也没有必要。具体来看，9月非农呈现出复杂且矛盾的信号：一方面，新增非农就业人数超预期上行，11.9万人的增长相当于市场预期的两倍，而这一点我们在此前报告中早已提示，前期市场对劳动力市场走弱的风险定价到极致，而9月数据由于季调方法往往有上修风险，导致降息预期回调，不过因为政府关门导致这一影响明显滞后；从结构上来看，教育和保健（5.9万人）、休闲和住宿（4.7）行业贡献了最主要的就业增长，政府部门就业也在9月转为正增长（2.2万人）。但另一方面，前值的下修、失业率的走高等又给这份数据的强劲表现打了一定折扣。9月延续了今年以来劳工部的持续下修模式，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人，8月数据甚至一度下修至负增长区间(-0.4万人)；与此同时，失业率超预期上升至4.4%，创下阶段性新高，其中有劳动参与率回升的影响（9月劳动力参与率上升0.1pct至62.4%），日薪环比增速回落0.2pct至0.2%，这些数据的走弱一定程度上平抑了非农超预期的影响。因此，9月就业数据虽然“喜忧参半”，但整体还算相对平稳。至少做到了“有好消息也有坏消息”，使得“鸽”派和“鹰”派都有充足的论据支持，因此短期内不太能缓解美联储内部对于降息的分歧。但考虑到后续缺乏完整的官方经济数据，11月报告将延迟至12月16日发布，晚于FOMC会议时间，而美联储在9月和10月已经连续降息，12月再次降息的决策变得更加困难。资产端的走势也反映出了市场对9月数据的纠结，数据公布后，利率敏感型资产如美元、美债利率、黄金反复上下横跳，但最终变动不大。而风险资产却呈现显著降温，比特币跌破9万美元，美股则在高开后大幅跳水，创下四月对等关税以来盘中最大逆转，英伟达财报的超预期并未挽救美股颓势，海外市场风险偏好仍在下行。那么，如何理解这半个月以来海外市场的风偏下降，后续的市场又怎么看呢？当市场忙着为下跌找原因的时候，市场也许只是想找个原因下跌。整体上无非就两个理由：一、担忧AI资本开支增速与ROIC无法收敛（动物精神）；二、担心美联储的降息空间。这两点（联储要宽松，AI投资火热，其实就是典型的金发女郎经济）正是十月政府关门到市场高点阶段的最重要助推器，可谓成也萧何，败也萧何。无论是经济的坏消息还是好消息似乎都能被市场交易为好消息，而风险就在于经济数据如果不上不下，因为这样既会让市场担心AI下游需求，又没有货币宽松的支持。一句话说，经济不好不坏变成了当下最差的情景。回过头来看，43天的政府关门带来了一个宏观交易的空窗期，而勤奋的交易者们把原本三季报之后业绩空窗期中所有的潜在利好全部提前咀嚼一遍了（原本这个阶段宏观信息对市场的影响应该是显著的，包括关税对通胀的影响以及失业走弱的可持续性验证）。英伟达的财报公布完，标志着长达3-4个月的业绩信息空窗期正式开始。市场短时间内找不到新的材料来炒作，那么调整似乎才是对高估值的尊重，当然过度担心似乎也没有必要。宏观信息的回归会成为新的助推器吗？我们认为有难度，回到关门前我们对美国通胀和非农的基本判断：通胀在高关税商品9月逐渐摆上货架之后，未来一年同比读数都至少很难持续下降；与此同时，非农数据的季调方法也让年底的这几个月的新增就业人数读数可能偏高。其实降息到目前这个状态距离联储点阵图给的本轮降息终点（中性利率）已经不远。未来需要更坏的消息才能让联储回心转意，至少在明年的人事变动之前。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2,".SPX":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502667614667512,"gmtCreate":1763750080840,"gmtModify":1763750083026,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502667614667512","repostId":"1150363539","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150363539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763739021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150363539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读｜谁来挽救当前美股的颓势？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150363539","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"但考虑到后续缺乏完整的官方经济数据，11月报告将延迟至12月16日发布，晚于FOMC会议时间，而美联储在9月和10月已经连续降息，12月再次降息的决策变得更加困难。而风险资产却呈现显著降温，比特币跌破9万美元，美股则在高开后大幅跳水，创下四月对等关税以来盘中最大逆转，英伟达财报的超预期并未挽救美股颓势，海外市场风险偏好仍在下行。英伟达的财报公布完，标志着长达3-4个月的业绩信息空窗期正式开始。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>阔别两个月后，9月美国非农“姗姗来迟”，如何理解这一份迟到的就业数据？</strong>9月非农公布的时点相对“尴尬”：如果数据正常发布，大超预期的新增非农可能提前一个月改变市场的乐观定价，但站在当前的时点上，数据似乎显得有些过时；但另一方面，由于11月就业报告的推迟，这又是美联储评估12月议息会议降息与否唯一的官方数据。</p><p><strong>我们认为，9月数据并未给出一致且明确的政策信号：超预期上行的新增非农和失业率互相矛盾，给了市场充分的解读空间，甚至可能进一步加剧了联储内部的分歧。</strong>随着宏观信息的逐步回归，利率逐步逼近点阵图终点（3.5%左右），后续联储的降息决策会更加犹豫，如果没有政治力量的干预，停止降息进入观察基本面变化似乎是合理的。</p><p><strong>而对于风险资产而言，</strong>对AI资本开支以及联储降息空间的担忧持续扰动风险偏好，英伟达的财报更像被市场交易为利多出尽。随着业绩信息空窗期的开始，市场短时间内找不到新的材料来炒作，调整才是对高估值的尊重，当然过度的担心似乎也没有必要。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b05ea96d55e23804388678d80997deea\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p><strong>具体来看，9月非农呈现出复杂且矛盾的信号：</strong></p><p><strong>一方面，新增非农就业人数超预期上行，</strong>11.9万人的增长相当于市场预期的两倍，而这一点我们在此前报告中早已提示，前期市场对劳动力市场走弱的风险定价到极致，而9月数据由于季调方法往往有上修风险，导致降息预期回调，不过因为政府关门导致这一影响明显滞后；</p><p><strong>从结构上来看，</strong>教育和保健（5.9万人）、休闲和住宿（4.7）行业贡献了最主要的就业增长，政府部门就业也在9月转为正增长（2.2万人）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2509f739556870afd2b5bd08af21647d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"772\"/></p><p><strong>但另一方面，前值的下修、失业率的走高等又给这份数据的强劲表现打了一定折扣。</strong>9月延续了今年以来劳工部的持续下修模式，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人，8月数据甚至一度下修至负增长区间(-0.4万人)；</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1505280587f1634ad8e2a6207af45677\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"659\"/></p><p><strong>与此同时，</strong>失业率超预期上升至4.4%，创下阶段性新高，其中有劳动参与率回升的影响（9月劳动力参与率上升0.1pct至62.4%），日薪环比增速回落0.2pct至0.2%，这些数据的走弱一定程度上平抑了非农超预期的影响。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8833fb8082075d4ce496b60dd2cdc70\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><p><strong>因此，9月就业数据虽然“喜忧参半”，但整体还算相对平稳。</strong>至少做到了“有好消息也有坏消息”，使得“鸽”派和“鹰”派都有充足的论据支持，因此短期内不太能缓解美联储内部对于降息的分歧。但考虑到后续缺乏完整的官方经济数据，11月报告将延迟至12月16日发布，晚于FOMC会议时间，而美联储在9月和10月已经连续降息，12月再次降息的决策变得更加困难。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d510501bd453bc61f71399499ebe107\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"803\"/></p><p><strong>资产端的走势也反映出了市场对9月数据的纠结</strong>，数据公布后，利率敏感型资产如美元、美债利率、黄金反复上下横跳，但最终变动不大。<strong>而风险资产却呈现显著降温，比特币跌破9万美元，美股则在高开后大幅跳水，创下四月对等关税以来盘中最大逆转，</strong>英伟达财报的超预期并未挽救美股颓势，海外市场风险偏好仍在下行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d8065fe7929a3455e0057dd9cfa0f4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p><strong>那么，如何理解这半个月以来海外市场的风偏下降，后续的市场又怎么看呢？</strong>当市场忙着为下跌找原因的时候，市场也许只是想找个原因下跌。整体上无非就两个理由：一、担忧AI资本开支增速与ROIC无法收敛（动物精神）；二、担心美联储的降息空间。这两点（联储要宽松，AI投资火热，其实就是典型的金发女郎经济）正是十月政府关门到市场高点阶段的最重要助推器，可谓成也萧何，败也萧何。无论是经济的坏消息还是好消息似乎都能被市场交易为好消息，而风险就在于经济数据如果不上不下，因为这样既会让市场担心AI下游需求，又没有货币宽松的支持。<strong>一句话说，经济不好不坏变成了当下最差的情景。</strong></p><p><strong>回过头来看，43天的政府关门带来了一个宏观交易的空窗期，</strong>而勤奋的交易者们把原本三季报之后业绩空窗期中所有的潜在利好全部提前咀嚼一遍了（原本这个阶段宏观信息对市场的影响应该是显著的，包括关税对通胀的影响以及失业走弱的可持续性验证）。英伟达的财报公布完，标志着长达3-4个月的业绩信息空窗期正式开始。市场短时间内找不到新的材料来炒作，那么调整似乎才是对高估值的尊重，当然过度担心似乎也没有必要。</p><p><strong>宏观信息的回归会成为新的助推器吗？</strong>我们认为有难度，回到关门前我们对美国通胀和非农的基本判断：通胀在高关税商品9月逐渐摆上货架之后，未来一年同比读数都至少很难持续下降；与此同时，非农数据的季调方法也让年底的这几个月的新增就业人数读数可能偏高。其实降息到目前这个状态距离联储点阵图给的本轮降息终点（中性利率）已经不远。<strong>未来需要更坏的消息才能让联储回心转意，至少在明年的人事变动之前。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜读｜谁来挽救当前美股的颓势？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读｜谁来挽救当前美股的颓势？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-21 23:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWqI0erOTycvreQWf7cAzg><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>阔别两个月后，9月美国非农“姗姗来迟”，如何理解这一份迟到的就业数据？9月非农公布的时点相对“尴尬”：如果数据正常发布，大超预期的新增非农可能提前一个月改变市场的乐观定价，但站在当前的时点上，数据似乎显得有些过时；但另一方面，由于11月就业报告的推迟，这又是美联储评估12月议息会议降息与否唯一的官方数据。我们认为，9月数据并未给出一致且明确的政策信号：超预期上行的新增非农和失业率互相矛盾，给了市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWqI0erOTycvreQWf7cAzg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8563c55eda230bf12ce63dc5314b95d0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWqI0erOTycvreQWf7cAzg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150363539","content_text":"阔别两个月后，9月美国非农“姗姗来迟”，如何理解这一份迟到的就业数据？9月非农公布的时点相对“尴尬”：如果数据正常发布，大超预期的新增非农可能提前一个月改变市场的乐观定价，但站在当前的时点上，数据似乎显得有些过时；但另一方面，由于11月就业报告的推迟，这又是美联储评估12月议息会议降息与否唯一的官方数据。我们认为，9月数据并未给出一致且明确的政策信号：超预期上行的新增非农和失业率互相矛盾，给了市场充分的解读空间，甚至可能进一步加剧了联储内部的分歧。随着宏观信息的逐步回归，利率逐步逼近点阵图终点（3.5%左右），后续联储的降息决策会更加犹豫，如果没有政治力量的干预，停止降息进入观察基本面变化似乎是合理的。而对于风险资产而言，对AI资本开支以及联储降息空间的担忧持续扰动风险偏好，英伟达的财报更像被市场交易为利多出尽。随着业绩信息空窗期的开始，市场短时间内找不到新的材料来炒作，调整才是对高估值的尊重，当然过度的担心似乎也没有必要。具体来看，9月非农呈现出复杂且矛盾的信号：一方面，新增非农就业人数超预期上行，11.9万人的增长相当于市场预期的两倍，而这一点我们在此前报告中早已提示，前期市场对劳动力市场走弱的风险定价到极致，而9月数据由于季调方法往往有上修风险，导致降息预期回调，不过因为政府关门导致这一影响明显滞后；从结构上来看，教育和保健（5.9万人）、休闲和住宿（4.7）行业贡献了最主要的就业增长，政府部门就业也在9月转为正增长（2.2万人）。但另一方面，前值的下修、失业率的走高等又给这份数据的强劲表现打了一定折扣。9月延续了今年以来劳工部的持续下修模式，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人，8月数据甚至一度下修至负增长区间(-0.4万人)；与此同时，失业率超预期上升至4.4%，创下阶段性新高，其中有劳动参与率回升的影响（9月劳动力参与率上升0.1pct至62.4%），日薪环比增速回落0.2pct至0.2%，这些数据的走弱一定程度上平抑了非农超预期的影响。因此，9月就业数据虽然“喜忧参半”，但整体还算相对平稳。至少做到了“有好消息也有坏消息”，使得“鸽”派和“鹰”派都有充足的论据支持，因此短期内不太能缓解美联储内部对于降息的分歧。但考虑到后续缺乏完整的官方经济数据，11月报告将延迟至12月16日发布，晚于FOMC会议时间，而美联储在9月和10月已经连续降息，12月再次降息的决策变得更加困难。资产端的走势也反映出了市场对9月数据的纠结，数据公布后，利率敏感型资产如美元、美债利率、黄金反复上下横跳，但最终变动不大。而风险资产却呈现显著降温，比特币跌破9万美元，美股则在高开后大幅跳水，创下四月对等关税以来盘中最大逆转，英伟达财报的超预期并未挽救美股颓势，海外市场风险偏好仍在下行。那么，如何理解这半个月以来海外市场的风偏下降，后续的市场又怎么看呢？当市场忙着为下跌找原因的时候，市场也许只是想找个原因下跌。整体上无非就两个理由：一、担忧AI资本开支增速与ROIC无法收敛（动物精神）；二、担心美联储的降息空间。这两点（联储要宽松，AI投资火热，其实就是典型的金发女郎经济）正是十月政府关门到市场高点阶段的最重要助推器，可谓成也萧何，败也萧何。无论是经济的坏消息还是好消息似乎都能被市场交易为好消息，而风险就在于经济数据如果不上不下，因为这样既会让市场担心AI下游需求，又没有货币宽松的支持。一句话说，经济不好不坏变成了当下最差的情景。回过头来看，43天的政府关门带来了一个宏观交易的空窗期，而勤奋的交易者们把原本三季报之后业绩空窗期中所有的潜在利好全部提前咀嚼一遍了（原本这个阶段宏观信息对市场的影响应该是显著的，包括关税对通胀的影响以及失业走弱的可持续性验证）。英伟达的财报公布完，标志着长达3-4个月的业绩信息空窗期正式开始。市场短时间内找不到新的材料来炒作，那么调整似乎才是对高估值的尊重，当然过度担心似乎也没有必要。宏观信息的回归会成为新的助推器吗？我们认为有难度，回到关门前我们对美国通胀和非农的基本判断：通胀在高关税商品9月逐渐摆上货架之后，未来一年同比读数都至少很难持续下降；与此同时，非农数据的季调方法也让年底的这几个月的新增就业人数读数可能偏高。其实降息到目前这个状态距离联储点阵图给的本轮降息终点（中性利率）已经不远。未来需要更坏的消息才能让联储回心转意，至少在明年的人事变动之前。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2,".SPX":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502323367592648,"gmtCreate":1763656368869,"gmtModify":1763656370977,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502323367592648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502324124177056,"gmtCreate":1763656294446,"gmtModify":1763656296932,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"非农预计数据不佳，又是先涨后跌","listText":"非农预计数据不佳，又是先涨后跌","text":"非农预计数据不佳，又是先涨后跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502324124177056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502305503851384,"gmtCreate":1763652095168,"gmtModify":1763652097086,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强][强][强]","listText":"[强][强][强]","text":"[强][强][强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502305503851384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":501984034329344,"gmtCreate":1763573393218,"gmtModify":1763573395342,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468529827816752","authorIdStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强][强]","listText":"[强][强]","text":"[强][强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501984034329344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopSta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href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/189347982880944\">Day4.为什么股价没涨没跌，但是期权却在亏钱</a>也提到过，所以虽然做买方可以以小博大，但是时间价值流逝风险也使得买方的胜率往往都比较低。这一点也让很多刚进期权市场的新手痛苦不已，如何既能享受买方的杠杆收益，又能对冲掉时间价值流逝风险呢？今天芝士虎给大家介绍的风险反转策略（risk reverse）就可以实现！一、什么是风险反转策略？所谓风险反转策略，其实就是在买入一个看涨期权的同时，再卖出一个看跌期权，或者在买入一个看跌期权的同时再卖出一个看涨期权，只是前者的方向是看多，后者的方向是看空。这个策略和我们以前介绍的组合期权策略不同的是，该策略虽然是多腿策略，但是却是一个不折不扣的方向性策略，也就是在赌股价单方向的上涨或者下跌。举个例子，假如我们认为12月29号之前特斯拉的股价会上涨，我们就可以在买入执行价为252.5美元的看涨期权的同时再卖出执行价为252.5美元的看跌期权，到期日选12月29号。权利金净支出为0.34美元（5.15-4.81）如果未来特斯拉的股价真的上涨，买入的看涨期权和卖出的看跌期权都是赚钱的，反之则亏钱。既然是赌方向，相对于直接买入看涨期权，该策略的好处是什么呢？首先，该策略解决了我们前面提到的买方要承担时间价值衰减的损失问题，因为卖出的看跌期权带来的时间价值收益可以抵消掉买入看涨期权的时间价值衰减损失，也就是对冲了theta风险。其次，由于风险反转策略是在买入看涨期权的同时多卖出了一个看跌","listText":"虎友，你好欢迎来到期权芝士专栏-高阶策略篇第五期！我们知道，期权买方杠杆大，亏损有限，尤其是做末日轮，可以以有限的亏损博取几十倍甚至上百倍的收益，然而无论是期权小白还是投资老手都知道期权交易有句话叫做：时间是卖方的朋友，买方的敌人，这一点我们在之前的文章中<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/189347982880944\">Day4.为什么股价没涨没跌，但是期权却在亏钱</a>也提到过，所以虽然做买方可以以小博大，但是时间价值流逝风险也使得买方的胜率往往都比较低。这一点也让很多刚进期权市场的新手痛苦不已，如何既能享受买方的杠杆收益，又能对冲掉时间价值流逝风险呢？今天芝士虎给大家介绍的风险反转策略（risk reverse）就可以实现！一、什么是风险反转策略？所谓风险反转策略，其实就是在买入一个看涨期权的同时，再卖出一个看跌期权，或者在买入一个看跌期权的同时再卖出一个看涨期权，只是前者的方向是看多，后者的方向是看空。这个策略和我们以前介绍的组合期权策略不同的是，该策略虽然是多腿策略，但是却是一个不折不扣的方向性策略，也就是在赌股价单方向的上涨或者下跌。举个例子，假如我们认为12月29号之前特斯拉的股价会上涨，我们就可以在买入执行价为252.5美元的看涨期权的同时再卖出执行价为252.5美元的看跌期权，到期日选12月29号。权利金净支出为0.34美元（5.15-4.81）如果未来特斯拉的股价真的上涨，买入的看涨期权和卖出的看跌期权都是赚钱的，反之则亏钱。既然是赌方向，相对于直接买入看涨期权，该策略的好处是什么呢？首先，该策略解决了我们前面提到的买方要承担时间价值衰减的损失问题，因为卖出的看跌期权带来的时间价值收益可以抵消掉买入看涨期权的时间价值衰减损失，也就是对冲了theta风险。其次，由于风险反转策略是在买入看涨期权的同时多卖出了一个看跌","text":"虎友，你好欢迎来到期权芝士专栏-高阶策略篇第五期！我们知道，期权买方杠杆大，亏损有限，尤其是做末日轮，可以以有限的亏损博取几十倍甚至上百倍的收益，然而无论是期权小白还是投资老手都知道期权交易有句话叫做：时间是卖方的朋友，买方的敌人，这一点我们在之前的文章中Day4.为什么股价没涨没跌，但是期权却在亏钱也提到过，所以虽然做买方可以以小博大，但是时间价值流逝风险也使得买方的胜率往往都比较低。这一点也让很多刚进期权市场的新手痛苦不已，如何既能享受买方的杠杆收益，又能对冲掉时间价值流逝风险呢？今天芝士虎给大家介绍的风险反转策略（risk reverse）就可以实现！一、什么是风险反转策略？所谓风险反转策略，其实就是在买入一个看涨期权的同时，再卖出一个看跌期权，或者在买入一个看跌期权的同时再卖出一个看涨期权，只是前者的方向是看多，后者的方向是看空。这个策略和我们以前介绍的组合期权策略不同的是，该策略虽然是多腿策略，但是却是一个不折不扣的方向性策略，也就是在赌股价单方向的上涨或者下跌。举个例子，假如我们认为12月29号之前特斯拉的股价会上涨，我们就可以在买入执行价为252.5美元的看涨期权的同时再卖出执行价为252.5美元的看跌期权，到期日选12月29号。权利金净支出为0.34美元（5.15-4.81）如果未来特斯拉的股价真的上涨，买入的看涨期权和卖出的看跌期权都是赚钱的，反之则亏钱。既然是赌方向，相对于直接买入看涨期权，该策略的好处是什么呢？首先，该策略解决了我们前面提到的买方要承担时间价值衰减的损失问题，因为卖出的看跌期权带来的时间价值收益可以抵消掉买入看涨期权的时间价值衰减损失，也就是对冲了theta风险。其次，由于风险反转策略是在买入看涨期权的同时多卖出了一个看跌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74beb5b512189e7725e79a9a0d78e274","width":"1080","height":"1920"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37899d3dd7e703fa31a667a21b183fa8","width":"1080","height":"2338"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d625e4cd8b87da3ad2a584150d9c301","width":"961","height":"540"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/257180022820912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293942195069088,"gmtCreate":1712793750677,"gmtModify":1712793752470,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"但愿能持续！","listText":"但愿能持续！","text":"但愿能持续！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293942195069088","repostId":"1149446579","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149446579","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1712717603,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149446579?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-10 10:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"IPO热点速览｜港股打新开启春日回暖模式？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149446579","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月10日，港股打新开启春日回暖模式？近期10支港股IPO新股，共计8支首日上涨，2支下跌。截至4月8日收盘，4支累计上涨翻倍，过半数累计上涨超50%！","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月10日，港股打新开启春日回暖模式？近期10支港股IPO新股，共计8支首日上涨，2支下跌。截至4月8日收盘，4支累计上涨翻倍，过半数累计上涨超50%！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb63cbe9ea2572ee38fcbd22b69e9fca\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1888\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO热点速览｜港股打新开启春日回暖模式？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO热点速览｜港股打新开启春日回暖模式？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-10 10:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月10日，港股打新开启春日回暖模式？近期10支港股IPO新股，共计8支首日上涨，2支下跌。截至4月8日收盘，4支累计上涨翻倍，过半数累计上涨超50%！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb63cbe9ea2572ee38fcbd22b69e9fca\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1888\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"02540":"乐思集团","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02509":"荃信生物-B","06959":"长久股份","02598":"连连数字","09879":"米高集团","02536":"百乐皇宫","02453":"美中嘉和","HSI":"恒生指数","02497":"富景中国控股","02477":"经纬天地","02535":"泓基集团"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149446579","content_text":"4月10日，港股打新开启春日回暖模式？近期10支港股IPO新股，共计8支首日上涨，2支下跌。截至4月8日收盘，4支累计上涨翻倍，过半数累计上涨超50%！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02453":1.1,"02598":1.1,"02540":1.1,"06959":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"02535":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1,"02497":1.1,"02509":1.1,"09879":1.1,"02536":1.1,"02477":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507790581797176,"gmtCreate":1764952744526,"gmtModify":1764952746695,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507790581797176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507452979331256,"gmtCreate":1764865968949,"gmtModify":1764865970627,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507452979331256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507229629456464,"gmtCreate":1764865941037,"gmtModify":1764865942791,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507229629456464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":506875705856856,"gmtCreate":1764779612563,"gmtModify":1764779614447,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"，1","listText":"，1","text":"，1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506875705856856","repostId":"1198185238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198185238","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764776020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198185238?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-03 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198185238","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，就业市场面临的压力正在加大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c814666c27c1cc1ef673dedce5dcdd27\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">小型企业成为裁员重灾区。<strong>员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。</strong>相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">薪资增速同步放缓。<strong>留任员工的薪资同比增长4.4%，较10月下降0.1个百分点</strong>。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，雇主正在应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，招聘活动近期波动明显。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。期货交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对是否需要进一步放松政策存在疑虑。</p><h2 id=\"id_3536275615\">小型企业遭遇裁员潮</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">劳动力市场的疲软主要集中在小型企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，<strong>为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅</strong>，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。其中，20至49人规模的企业裁员<strong>7.4万人</strong>，贡献了小型企业裁员总量的大部分。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed1d4a9fa1d44c84fecd7234e49f1253\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"680\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此形成鲜明对比的是，员工数达到50人以上的大型企业实际净增9万个岗位，显示不同规模企业在当前经济环境下的抗压能力存在显著差异。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一总计3.2万人的就业下滑，较10月上修后的增加4.7万个岗位出现急剧转向。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson在声明中表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;近期招聘一直不稳定，雇主正应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，11月的放缓具有广泛性，但主要由小企业的收缩引领。&#34;</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1065308018\">行业表现分化明显</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就业数据在行业层面呈现广泛下滑趋势。专业和商业服务业裁员2.6万人，成为减员最多的行业。信息服务业减少2万个岗位，制造业裁员1.8万人，金融活动和建筑业各减少9000个岗位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">仅有少数行业实现就业增长。教育和医疗服务业领涨，新增3.3万个岗位，休闲和酒店业增加1.3万个岗位。但这些增长不足以抵消其他行业的广泛下滑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85d4c02206352ee630f006026b2466a5\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"1779\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_154258377\">薪资增长降温</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">劳动力市场走弱的迹象同样体现在薪资数据上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室合作发布的报告显示，跳槽者的薪资增幅为6.3%，为2021年2月以来最低水平。<strong>留在原岗位的员工薪资增幅为4.4%</strong>。该数据基于覆盖超过2600万美国私营部门雇员的工资单。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd985990d600cb8a5b09f8f9822f8d3\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据报道，直到最近，经济学家还普遍认为劳动力市场处于低招聘、低解雇状态，但包括苹果公司和Verizon Communications在内的多家大型企业近期已裁员或宣布裁员计划，这可能推动失业率上升。</p><h2 id=\"id_4077836169\">美联储面临政策抉择</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这份报告将成为美联储12月政策会议前的重要参考。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">期货市场显示，交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对进一步放松政策持保留态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近几周，美联储政策制定者的观点出现分歧。一方认为降息是防止劳动力市场进一步恶化的必要手段，另一方则担心额外降息可能加剧通胀，而通胀水平仍显著高于美联储2%的目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国劳工统计局将于12月16日发布官方非农就业数据，该日期因政府关门而有所推迟。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n意外下滑！美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-03 23:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760652","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198185238","content_text":"ADP报告显示，小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。美国11月私营部门出现近两年来最大规模裁员，就业岗位减少3.2万个，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。12月3日，最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，就业市场面临的压力正在加大。小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明显分化。薪资增速同步放缓。留任员工的薪资同比增长4.4%，较10月下降0.1个百分点。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，雇主正在应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，招聘活动近期波动明显。这份报告是美联储12月9日至10日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。期货交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对是否需要进一步放松政策存在疑虑。小型企业遭遇裁员潮劳动力市场的疲软主要集中在小型企业。员工少于50人的企业11月减少12万个岗位，为2020年5月以来最大单月降幅，成为拖累整体就业的主要因素。其中，20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人，贡献了小型企业裁员总量的大部分。与此形成鲜明对比的是，员工数达到50人以上的大型企业实际净增9万个岗位，显示不同规模企业在当前经济环境下的抗压能力存在显著差异。这一总计3.2万人的就业下滑，较10月上修后的增加4.7万个岗位出现急剧转向。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson在声明中表示：\"近期招聘一直不稳定，雇主正应对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，11月的放缓具有广泛性，但主要由小企业的收缩引领。\"行业表现分化明显就业数据在行业层面呈现广泛下滑趋势。专业和商业服务业裁员2.6万人，成为减员最多的行业。信息服务业减少2万个岗位，制造业裁员1.8万人，金融活动和建筑业各减少9000个岗位。仅有少数行业实现就业增长。教育和医疗服务业领涨，新增3.3万个岗位，休闲和酒店业增加1.3万个岗位。但这些增长不足以抵消其他行业的广泛下滑。薪资增长降温劳动力市场走弱的迹象同样体现在薪资数据上。ADP与斯坦福数字经济实验室合作发布的报告显示，跳槽者的薪资增幅为6.3%，为2021年2月以来最低水平。留在原岗位的员工薪资增幅为4.4%。该数据基于覆盖超过2600万美国私营部门雇员的工资单。据报道，直到最近，经济学家还普遍认为劳动力市场处于低招聘、低解雇状态，但包括苹果公司和Verizon Communications在内的多家大型企业近期已裁员或宣布裁员计划，这可能推动失业率上升。美联储面临政策抉择这份报告将成为美联储12月政策会议前的重要参考。期货市场显示，交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%，尽管部分官员对进一步放松政策持保留态度。近几周，美联储政策制定者的观点出现分歧。一方认为降息是防止劳动力市场进一步恶化的必要手段，另一方则担心额外降息可能加剧通胀，而通胀水平仍显著高于美联储2%的目标。美国劳工统计局将于12月16日发布官方非农就业数据，该日期因政府关门而有所推迟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":452093288862048,"gmtCreate":1751400198814,"gmtModify":1751400200133,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452093288862048","repostId":"1112804616","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1112804616","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1751378623,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112804616?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-01 22:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BMNR继续暴涨，昨日狂飙近7倍，将巨额融资以执行ETH储备策略","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112804616","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此前宣布2.5亿美元融资执行ETH储备策略。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周二，比特币概念股BitMine Immersion Technologies暴涨超50%，昨日狂飙近7倍，此前宣布2.5亿美元融资执行ETH储备策略。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d53f93c900d63b09726df871257ceb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BMNR继续暴涨，昨日狂飙近7倍，将巨额融资以执行ETH储备策略</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBMNR继续暴涨，昨日狂飙近7倍，将巨额融资以执行ETH储备策略\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-01 22:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周二，比特币概念股BitMine Immersion Technologies暴涨超50%，昨日狂飙近7倍，此前宣布2.5亿美元融资执行ETH储备策略。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d53f93c900d63b09726df871257ceb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99b324a3231dc7b1971a1ef37e384338","relate_stocks":{"BMNR":"BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112804616","content_text":"周二，比特币概念股BitMine Immersion Technologies暴涨超50%，昨日狂飙近7倍，此前宣布2.5亿美元融资执行ETH储备策略。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BMNR":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":297000822485280,"gmtCreate":1713538702590,"gmtModify":1713538704364,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅[眼眼]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"阅[眼眼]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"阅[眼眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297000822485280","repostId":"2428654463","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2428654463","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1713535592,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2428654463?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-19 22:06","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美股“抄底”机会来了？专家：建议逢低买入，标普500有望升破5400点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428654463","media":"智通财经","summary":"她说，标普500指数在2023年上涨24%之后，在第一季度飙升10%，创下自2019年以来的最佳开局，连续三周的暴跌是交易员的一次健康整合。从现在开始，Colton Grant预计，基于强劲的盈利增长和持续的经济势头，这轮涨势不仅会恢复，而且会扩大，有可能在2024年收盘前将推高标普500指数升破5400点。标普500指数预计将连续第三周下跌，因在一系列火热的通胀报告出炉后，投资者降低了对美联储降息的预期。纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门预计2024年美股盈利将增长11%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">纽约梅隆银行</a>财富管理部门首席投资官Sinead Colton Grant表示，美国股市从上月底创下的历史高点回落，给持有现金的投资者提供了买入的机会。她说，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在2023年上涨24%之后，在第一季度飙升10%，创下自2019年以来的最佳开局，连续三周的暴跌是交易员的一次健康整合。从现在开始，Colton Grant预计，基于强劲的盈利增长和持续的经济势头，这轮涨势不仅会恢复，而且会扩大，有可能在2024年收盘前将推高标普500指数升破5400点。</p><p>她在接受采访时表示:“历史上有很多这样的例子，投资者等待找到绝对低点，却错过了时机，所以如果你有资金可以配置，现在是开始增加敞口的好时机。这是一个迷人的市场，对投资者来说，最糟糕的事情就是完全持有现金。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92464c1e9b020d305de787d38e516ce9\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p>纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门增持美国大盘股，相对于国际和新兴市场股票，它更喜欢美国大盘股。虽然美国股市的市盈率高于其他市场，但Colton Grant表示喜欢大公司产生的自由现金流。她尤其看好科技、医疗保健和工业板块。</p><p>标普500指数预计将连续第三周下跌，因在一系列火热的通胀报告出炉后，投资者降低了对美联储降息的预期。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)周四重申，他认为年底前降息都是不合适的。</p><p>但一直以来，纽约梅隆银行的降息预期都低于市场对今年降息幅度的预期。当投资者预期是六次降息时，该行的预期为四次。现在，该行只预计美联储将在12月份降息一次。Colton Grant表示：&#34;我们首次看到市场真正对降息预期降低做出反应，我认为这是健康的。&#34;她指出，今年年初，随着交易商缩减降息押注，股市几乎没有反应。</p><p>财报是股市从目前水平上涨的关键。纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门预计2024年美股盈利将增长11%。Colton Grant认为，美联储是否降息并不重要。她说，由于自2008年金融危机以来的大部分时间里，利率一直处于接近于零的水平，一种观点认为，股市需要接近于零的利率和接近2%的通胀率才能表现良好。但对她来说，这是有缺陷的逻辑。</p><p>Colton Grant表示:“股市可以在2%至4%的通胀率范围内表现良好，而我们目前的通胀率正是2%至4%。当我们的通胀率超过5%，并朝着两位数的方向发展时，问题就出现了，就像2022年那样。但我们认为，目前对股市来说，实际上是一个相当有利的环境。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股“抄底”机会来了？专家：建议逢低买入，标普500有望升破5400点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-19 22:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105844.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门首席投资官Sinead Colton Grant表示，美国股市从上月底创下的历史高点回落，给持有现金的投资者提供了买入的机会。她说，标普500指数在2023年上涨24%之后，在第一季度飙升10%，创下自2019年以来的最佳开局，连续三周的暴跌是交易员的一次健康整合。从现在开始，Colton Grant预计，基于强劲的盈利增长和持续的经济势头，这轮涨势不仅会恢复，而且会扩大，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105844.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1105844.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2428654463","content_text":"纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门首席投资官Sinead Colton Grant表示，美国股市从上月底创下的历史高点回落，给持有现金的投资者提供了买入的机会。她说，标普500指数在2023年上涨24%之后，在第一季度飙升10%，创下自2019年以来的最佳开局，连续三周的暴跌是交易员的一次健康整合。从现在开始，Colton Grant预计，基于强劲的盈利增长和持续的经济势头，这轮涨势不仅会恢复，而且会扩大，有可能在2024年收盘前将推高标普500指数升破5400点。她在接受采访时表示:“历史上有很多这样的例子，投资者等待找到绝对低点，却错过了时机，所以如果你有资金可以配置，现在是开始增加敞口的好时机。这是一个迷人的市场，对投资者来说，最糟糕的事情就是完全持有现金。”纽约梅隆银行财富管理部门增持美国大盘股，相对于国际和新兴市场股票，它更喜欢美国大盘股。虽然美国股市的市盈率高于其他市场，但Colton Grant表示喜欢大公司产生的自由现金流。她尤其看好科技、医疗保健和工业板块。标普500指数预计将连续第三周下跌，因在一系列火热的通胀报告出炉后，投资者降低了对美联储降息的预期。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克(Raphael Bostic)周四重申，他认为年底前降息都是不合适的。但一直以来，纽约梅隆银行的降息预期都低于市场对今年降息幅度的预期。当投资者预期是六次降息时，该行的预期为四次。现在，该行只预计美联储将在12月份降息一次。Colton 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