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盲人摸大象

盲人摸大象

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盲人摸大象

05-01 21:48

1

AI资本开支分化：英伟达仍是核心，但不再是唯一答案

盲人摸大象

03-25

[强]

盲人摸大象

03-20

1

黄仁勋即中本聪

盲人摸大象

03-20

很有可能啊🤔

伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？

盲人摸大象

03-20

1

盲人摸大象

03-19

1

盲人摸大象

03-19

[强] [强] [强]

黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判

盲人摸大象

03-19

1

马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片

盲人摸大象

03-19

1

异动解读 | 美联储政策压制及白银期货跳水，2倍做多白银ETF盘前大跌11.27%

盲人摸大象

03-19

1

异动解读 | 2倍做多黄金ETF盘前大跌5.14%，受美联储鹰派立场及中东冲突打压

盲人摸大象

03-10

1

盲人摸大象

03-07

[强]

“银色狂想曲”再度激昂？供需赤字与工业叙事共振，白银再战100美元大关

盲人摸大象

03-06

等待市场反弹调仓

盲人摸大象

03-06

[强][强][强]

盲人摸大象

03-04

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 出了，看到市盈率都100多了，还是小心一点比较好

盲人摸大象

03-04

[强][强][强]

盲人摸大象

02-28

[强] [强] [强]

不仅全员失业，资本主义也将终结？德银重磅推演AI发展两种终局

盲人摸大象

02-27

总结太到位了👍

盲人摸大象

01-26

[强][强][强]

盲人摸大象

01-09

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成：七家中国企业成核心供应商？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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13:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI资本开支分化：英伟达仍是核心，但不再是唯一答案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150955680","media":"美股研究社","summary":"英伟达仍是最大赢家，但股价不再只看订单四大巨头Capex继续抬升，按理说最直接利好英伟达。英伟达最新财年第四季度收入681亿美元，同比增长73%；数据中心收入623亿美元，同比增长75%；2026财年全年收入2159亿美元，同比增长65%。英伟达75%左右的毛利率，是AI芯片周期最核心的利润池。第四是资本开支回报。这也是为什么英伟达仍然是AI周期核心，却不再是“买了就完事”的标的。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>四大云与互联网巨头同一季度交卷后，AI行情的主线反而更清楚了：需求没有退潮，钱还在往数据中心、GPU、ASIC、HBM、电力和网络里砸。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软Azure增长40%，Google Cloud增长63%，AWS增长28%，Meta把2026年资本开支指引抬到1250亿—1450亿美元。Bridgewater此前测算，Alphabet、Amazon、Meta和Microsoft 2026年AI相关基础设施投资约6500亿美元，高于2025年的4100亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题也在这里：这么大的预算，已经不再是单纯利好，它会改变所有公司的估值算法。云厂花钱越多，芯片订单越确定；订单越确定，市场越会提前交易；交易越拥挤，英伟达和芯片股对利好的反应越钝。AI没有降温，只是从“买入叙事”进入“核算回报”的阶段。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46501b328a0aa23a77d4eade01d06a60\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2353615524\">四家都在砸钱，位置却完全不同 </h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一轮财报最容易被误读的地方，是把四大巨头的资本开支简单看成一张排行榜。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谁花得多，谁更激进；谁节奏放缓，谁需求走弱。这个理解太粗。真正要看的，是每家公司在AI资本周期里的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>微软是“高位扩张后的供给补课”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">它这一季收入829亿美元，同比增长18%；Azure及其他云服务收入增长40%；AI业务年化收入超过370亿美元；商业RPO增长99%至6270亿美元。需求侧很强，订单也很厚。CFO在电话会上披露，本季度资本开支319亿美元，其中约三分之二投向GPU、CPU等短周期资产；四季度Capex预计超过400亿美元，2026日历年预计约1900亿美元，里面包含约250亿美元的组件涨价影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这组数据的信号很微妙。微软不是不花了，而是投入开始从“抢地盘”进入“补产能、补交付、补效率”的阶段。Azure需求还超过可用容量，公司也预计2026年仍会有供给约束。换句话说，微软的AI问题不是没有订单，而是产能上线速度跟不上客户消耗速度。对芯片链来说，微软依然是确定性大客户；对微软股东来说，难点变成“花出去的GPU和CPU，多久能转成Copilot、Azure消费和现金流”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>亚马逊处在另一端，更像“左侧重仓押供给”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AWS一季度收入376亿美元，同比增长28%，创下近四年最快增速；但同一时间，亚马逊一季度资本开支达到442亿美元，过去12个月Capex约1510亿美元，自由现金流从去年同期259亿美元降到12亿美元。公司还维持2026年约2000亿美元AI投资目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">亚马逊的逻辑很直白：AWS不能只当传统云服务商，它要变成全球AI算力工厂之一。Trainium、Graviton、自研网络、数据中心、电力合同，这些投入把亚马逊往更重的基础设施方向推。它的优势是客户足够大，OpenAI、Anthropic、Meta等合作都能带来长期算力承诺；压力也很直接，现金流先被吃掉，利润兑现后移。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Alphabet是“基础设施+生态补强”的平台化打法。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌一季度收入1099亿美元，同比增长22%；Google Cloud收入增长63%至200亿美元，积压订单接近翻倍至4600亿美元以上；经营利润率提升到36.1%。同一季度，Alphabet购置物业和设备支出约357亿美元，还通过Wiz等并购补齐云安全和企业客户能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">它和亚马逊的区别，在于谷歌这次让市场看到了“边投钱、边放大利润”。搜索收入增长19%，AI体验推动查询量创历史高位，云业务也进入利润扩张期。对芯片链来说，Alphabet既是英伟达大客户，也是TPU自研路线最坚定的玩家之一。它不会停止采购高端GPU，但它也会持续把一部分利润留在自家ASIC体系里。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Meta则是“广告现金牛反哺AI”的样本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meta把2026年资本开支指引从1150亿—1350亿美元上调到1250亿—1450亿美元，理由包括组件价格上涨和数据中心投入增加；Reuters还提到，Meta正部署超过1GW的自研芯片，并使用相当数量的AMD芯片。与此同时，Meta一季度营收563亿美元，广告业务仍然量价齐升，全球日活达到35.6亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meta的特殊性在于，它不是传统云厂，却在承担云厂级别的AI投入。它买算力、造芯片、建数据中心，最终目标不是对外卖云，而是提高推荐、广告、内容生成、AI助手和智能硬件的效率。它的资金来源是广告现金流，风险也在广告现金流。一旦广告景气承压，市场会立刻重新审视1450亿美元的合理性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">四家公司合在一起看，行业信号很明确：AI竞争已经从“谁有模型”进入“谁能控制算力供给”。云厂不再满足于向英伟达下单，它们开始把自己改造成算力生产者、调度者和分发者。芯片板块仍然受益，但利润分配的逻辑开始变复杂。</p><h2 id=\"id_2125286109\">英伟达仍是最大赢家，但股价不再只看订单 </h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>四大巨头Capex继续抬升，按理说最直接利好英伟达。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达最新财年第四季度收入681亿美元，同比增长73%；数据中心收入623亿美元，同比增长75%；2026财年全年收入2159亿美元，同比增长65%。公司还给出下一季度收入780亿美元左右的指引，毛利率指引约75%。这些数字放在全球半导体史上，依然非常夸张。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>但芯片股的交易进入了一个新阶段：业绩越强，市场越会问“还剩多少没被定价”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去一年，英伟达的逻辑很顺：AI需求爆发，GPU紧缺，云厂排队下单，业绩持续超预期，估值继续抬升。现在前两段已经被验证到极致。微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta的预算，本身就是未来一到两年需求能见度的确认。订单还在，客户还在，Capex还在，可这些信息大部分已经写进股价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">所以，英伟达财报“不怎么动”，并不代表基本面变弱。更准确地说，它从“增量惊喜资产”变成“高预期兑现资产”。只要财报没有明显打穿一致预期，股价很难再像早期那样一根直线往上拉。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场现在盯的变量，已经换了。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一是毛利率。</strong>英伟达75%左右的毛利率，是AI芯片周期最核心的利润池。如果未来客户自研芯片放量、AMD加速追赶、云厂议价能力提升，毛利率哪怕只是边际承压，估值都会先反应。英伟达的利润质量依旧顶级，但越是顶级，市场越怕“均值回归”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二是客户结构。</strong>微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta仍然离不开英伟达高端GPU，尤其是训练、复杂推理和前沿模型场景。但它们同时都在做替代路线：亚马逊Trainium、谷歌TPU、Meta自研芯片，微软也在自研Maia体系。短期看，这些芯片无法完全替代英伟达生态；中期看，它们会拿走一部分标准化推理负载，改变英伟达的议价弹性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三是供给周期。</strong>AI芯片从极度紧缺走向结构性平衡，是所有周期股都会遇到的问题。现在还没到全面过剩，但供给扩张已经在路上。台积电CoWoS、HBM、先进封装、AI服务器产线，都在加速扩产。早期，缺货本身就是估值催化；后期，市场会开始计算新增产能投放后，价格和毛利率还能不能维持。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第四是资本开支回报。</strong>云厂花钱买芯片，最终要靠客户AI应用消耗来回收。假如企业AI预算继续放量，英伟达订单能延续；假如应用层收入跟不上基础设施投入，云厂会放慢扩产节奏。芯片股的估值，最终会被下游客户的资本纪律反向约束。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是为什么英伟达仍然是AI周期核心，却不再是“买了就完事”的标的。它的基本面强到没有争议，交易难度也随之提高。市场要的不是“还在增长”，而是更强的增速、更稳的毛利率、更长的订单周期，以及更少的自研替代风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达已经从AI行情的发动机，变成AI资本周期的温度计。温度还高，但资金开始看刻度变化，而不是只看火苗。</p><h2 id=\"id_1578959375\">芯片行情没有结束，只是从Beta变成挑公司</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">四大巨头Capex共振，对芯片板块仍然是中期利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一点没必要回避。6500亿美元级别的基础设施投入，不可能不进入半导体产业链。GPU、ASIC、CPU、HBM、先进封装、光模块、交换芯片、电源管理、散热、服务器ODM、数据中心网络，都会被这轮AI建设周期反复拉动。Reuters也提到，美国芯片股近期创新高，费城半导体指数一度连续18个交易日创纪录，年内涨幅达到47%，市场仍在交易AI基础设施景气。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但利好不再是均匀分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>上一阶段的芯片行情，是典型Beta：只要和AI算力沾边，估值都能跟着上。</strong>GPU涨，HBM涨，封装涨，服务器涨，甚至边缘零部件也能被贴上AI标签。现在，市场开始进入Alpha阶段，资金会追问每个环节的真实议价能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">最强的仍然是稀缺环节。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">HBM供应紧，先进封装产能紧，高端GPU生态和软件栈难复制，云厂核心网络和互联芯片门槛高。这些环节具备“订单可见+供给受限+利润率保护”的特征，仍然能拿到高估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">压力更大的，是单纯吃扩产周期的环节。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果一家公司的逻辑只停留在“AI服务器出货增加，所以订单增加”，估值弹性会越来越有限。因为市场会继续问：你有没有定价权？会不会被客户压价？扩产后毛利率能不能守住？大客户会不会导入第二供应商？行业从缺货转向结构性平衡后，低壁垒环节最容易出现“业绩增长、估值下移”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ASIC链条会变得更重要。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">亚马逊Trainium、谷歌TPU、Meta自研芯片，背后都对应一条非英伟达路径。它不会在短期内推翻GPU，但会重新分配利润。Broadcom、Marvell、台积电、先进封装、HBM厂商，都可能从云厂自研芯片中分到增量。芯片板块的机会，因此会从“押英伟达单点爆发”，扩展到“押云厂自研ASIC产业链”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI服务器链条也会被重新筛选。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>算力中心不只需要芯片，还需要网络、存储、电源、液冷、机柜、光互联。</strong>随着数据中心电力密度提升，传统服务器供应链会被迫升级。受益最大的不是所有硬件公司，而是能解决瓶颈的公司：高端交换、800G/1.6T光模块、液冷方案、电源管理、高速连接器、先进散热材料，这些会比普通组装环节更容易拿到溢价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时，也要警惕“资本开支利好被反向交易”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果云厂Capex继续上修，短期利好芯片订单；但如果市场认为Capex过热，反而会担心未来需求提前透支。芯片股高位时经常出现这种悖论：客户花钱越多，短期订单越强；钱花得太猛，市场越担心下一轮放缓。英伟达、AMD、博通、台积电、HBM厂商都会受到这种情绪摆动影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">所以，芯片板块不是主线消失，而是主线更难做了。早期买方向，后期买质量；早期看订单，后期看利润率；早期看谁沾AI，后期看谁掌握瓶颈。</p><h2 id=\"id_1346398849\">AI还在加速，芯片股却要告别“无脑溢价”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">四大巨头这一轮财报，给AI产业链传递了一个很硬的信号：算力建设没有停，资本开支也没有停。微软还在补Azure产能，亚马逊用AWS和Trainium抢供给，Alphabet边扩云边补生态，Meta拿广告现金流押超级智能和推荐系统。AI不是热度退潮，而是进入更重、更贵、更考验回报率的阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>对英伟达和芯片板块来说，这当然还是利好。</strong>没有6500亿美元级别的云厂预算，就没有数据中心芯片的超长景气。但市场已经不满足于“客户还在花钱”这句话。资金接下来会盯着三件事：订单能见度能延续多久，毛利率能否守住，云厂自研芯片会不会改写利润分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这就是现在最核心的冲突：AI资本开支越强，越证明需求真实；投入越强，也越容易让市场提前透支预期。芯片股还能涨，但不会再是全行业一起涨。英伟达仍然是核心锚，HBM、先进封装、ASIC、光互联、液冷等环节会继续有结构性机会；那些只有“AI标签”、缺少定价权和产能壁垒的公司，会越来越难享受高估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>行业前瞻看，AI交易已经从“算力紧缺”走向“资本效率”。谁能帮云厂降低每Token成本、提升能效、缩短训练和推理时间，谁就能继续拿订单；谁只是在扩产周期里跟着景气跑，业绩兑现后反而可能被杀估值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">所以，这轮四大巨头Capex分化没有削弱AI主线，反而让主线更清晰：未来不是所有芯片股都值钱，只有卡住瓶颈、守住利润率、站在云厂预算核心位置的公司，才配继续享受AI溢价。</p></body></html>","source":"mgyjs","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI资本开支分化：英伟达仍是核心，但不再是唯一答案</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI资本开支分化：英伟达仍是核心，但不再是唯一答案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-01 13:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aKZUZ5LDfT5gFvQjGdZ-ow><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>四大云与互联网巨头同一季度交卷后，AI行情的主线反而更清楚了：需求没有退潮，钱还在往数据中心、GPU、ASIC、HBM、电力和网络里砸。微软Azure增长40%，Google Cloud增长63%，AWS增长28%，Meta把2026年资本开支指引抬到1250亿—1450亿美元。Bridgewater此前测算，Alphabet、Amazon、Meta和Microsoft 2026年AI相关基础设施...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aKZUZ5LDfT5gFvQjGdZ-ow\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","NVDA":"英伟达","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aKZUZ5LDfT5gFvQjGdZ-ow","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150955680","content_text":"四大云与互联网巨头同一季度交卷后，AI行情的主线反而更清楚了：需求没有退潮，钱还在往数据中心、GPU、ASIC、HBM、电力和网络里砸。微软Azure增长40%，Google Cloud增长63%，AWS增长28%，Meta把2026年资本开支指引抬到1250亿—1450亿美元。Bridgewater此前测算，Alphabet、Amazon、Meta和Microsoft 2026年AI相关基础设施投资约6500亿美元，高于2025年的4100亿美元。问题也在这里：这么大的预算，已经不再是单纯利好，它会改变所有公司的估值算法。云厂花钱越多，芯片订单越确定；订单越确定，市场越会提前交易；交易越拥挤，英伟达和芯片股对利好的反应越钝。AI没有降温，只是从“买入叙事”进入“核算回报”的阶段。四家都在砸钱，位置却完全不同 这一轮财报最容易被误读的地方，是把四大巨头的资本开支简单看成一张排行榜。谁花得多，谁更激进；谁节奏放缓，谁需求走弱。这个理解太粗。真正要看的，是每家公司在AI资本周期里的位置。微软是“高位扩张后的供给补课”。它这一季收入829亿美元，同比增长18%；Azure及其他云服务收入增长40%；AI业务年化收入超过370亿美元；商业RPO增长99%至6270亿美元。需求侧很强，订单也很厚。CFO在电话会上披露，本季度资本开支319亿美元，其中约三分之二投向GPU、CPU等短周期资产；四季度Capex预计超过400亿美元，2026日历年预计约1900亿美元，里面包含约250亿美元的组件涨价影响。这组数据的信号很微妙。微软不是不花了，而是投入开始从“抢地盘”进入“补产能、补交付、补效率”的阶段。Azure需求还超过可用容量，公司也预计2026年仍会有供给约束。换句话说，微软的AI问题不是没有订单，而是产能上线速度跟不上客户消耗速度。对芯片链来说，微软依然是确定性大客户；对微软股东来说，难点变成“花出去的GPU和CPU，多久能转成Copilot、Azure消费和现金流”。亚马逊处在另一端，更像“左侧重仓押供给”。AWS一季度收入376亿美元，同比增长28%，创下近四年最快增速；但同一时间，亚马逊一季度资本开支达到442亿美元，过去12个月Capex约1510亿美元，自由现金流从去年同期259亿美元降到12亿美元。公司还维持2026年约2000亿美元AI投资目标。亚马逊的逻辑很直白：AWS不能只当传统云服务商，它要变成全球AI算力工厂之一。Trainium、Graviton、自研网络、数据中心、电力合同，这些投入把亚马逊往更重的基础设施方向推。它的优势是客户足够大，OpenAI、Anthropic、Meta等合作都能带来长期算力承诺；压力也很直接，现金流先被吃掉，利润兑现后移。Alphabet是“基础设施+生态补强”的平台化打法。谷歌一季度收入1099亿美元，同比增长22%；Google Cloud收入增长63%至200亿美元，积压订单接近翻倍至4600亿美元以上；经营利润率提升到36.1%。同一季度，Alphabet购置物业和设备支出约357亿美元，还通过Wiz等并购补齐云安全和企业客户能力。它和亚马逊的区别，在于谷歌这次让市场看到了“边投钱、边放大利润”。搜索收入增长19%，AI体验推动查询量创历史高位，云业务也进入利润扩张期。对芯片链来说，Alphabet既是英伟达大客户，也是TPU自研路线最坚定的玩家之一。它不会停止采购高端GPU，但它也会持续把一部分利润留在自家ASIC体系里。Meta则是“广告现金牛反哺AI”的样本。Meta把2026年资本开支指引从1150亿—1350亿美元上调到1250亿—1450亿美元，理由包括组件价格上涨和数据中心投入增加；Reuters还提到，Meta正部署超过1GW的自研芯片，并使用相当数量的AMD芯片。与此同时，Meta一季度营收563亿美元，广告业务仍然量价齐升，全球日活达到35.6亿。Meta的特殊性在于，它不是传统云厂，却在承担云厂级别的AI投入。它买算力、造芯片、建数据中心，最终目标不是对外卖云，而是提高推荐、广告、内容生成、AI助手和智能硬件的效率。它的资金来源是广告现金流，风险也在广告现金流。一旦广告景气承压，市场会立刻重新审视1450亿美元的合理性。四家公司合在一起看，行业信号很明确：AI竞争已经从“谁有模型”进入“谁能控制算力供给”。云厂不再满足于向英伟达下单，它们开始把自己改造成算力生产者、调度者和分发者。芯片板块仍然受益，但利润分配的逻辑开始变复杂。英伟达仍是最大赢家，但股价不再只看订单 四大巨头Capex继续抬升，按理说最直接利好英伟达。英伟达最新财年第四季度收入681亿美元，同比增长73%；数据中心收入623亿美元，同比增长75%；2026财年全年收入2159亿美元，同比增长65%。公司还给出下一季度收入780亿美元左右的指引，毛利率指引约75%。这些数字放在全球半导体史上，依然非常夸张。但芯片股的交易进入了一个新阶段：业绩越强，市场越会问“还剩多少没被定价”。过去一年，英伟达的逻辑很顺：AI需求爆发，GPU紧缺，云厂排队下单，业绩持续超预期，估值继续抬升。现在前两段已经被验证到极致。微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta的预算，本身就是未来一到两年需求能见度的确认。订单还在，客户还在，Capex还在，可这些信息大部分已经写进股价。所以，英伟达财报“不怎么动”，并不代表基本面变弱。更准确地说，它从“增量惊喜资产”变成“高预期兑现资产”。只要财报没有明显打穿一致预期，股价很难再像早期那样一根直线往上拉。市场现在盯的变量，已经换了。第一是毛利率。英伟达75%左右的毛利率，是AI芯片周期最核心的利润池。如果未来客户自研芯片放量、AMD加速追赶、云厂议价能力提升，毛利率哪怕只是边际承压，估值都会先反应。英伟达的利润质量依旧顶级，但越是顶级，市场越怕“均值回归”。第二是客户结构。微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta仍然离不开英伟达高端GPU，尤其是训练、复杂推理和前沿模型场景。但它们同时都在做替代路线：亚马逊Trainium、谷歌TPU、Meta自研芯片，微软也在自研Maia体系。短期看，这些芯片无法完全替代英伟达生态；中期看，它们会拿走一部分标准化推理负载，改变英伟达的议价弹性。第三是供给周期。AI芯片从极度紧缺走向结构性平衡，是所有周期股都会遇到的问题。现在还没到全面过剩，但供给扩张已经在路上。台积电CoWoS、HBM、先进封装、AI服务器产线，都在加速扩产。早期，缺货本身就是估值催化；后期，市场会开始计算新增产能投放后，价格和毛利率还能不能维持。第四是资本开支回报。云厂花钱买芯片，最终要靠客户AI应用消耗来回收。假如企业AI预算继续放量，英伟达订单能延续；假如应用层收入跟不上基础设施投入，云厂会放慢扩产节奏。芯片股的估值，最终会被下游客户的资本纪律反向约束。这也是为什么英伟达仍然是AI周期核心，却不再是“买了就完事”的标的。它的基本面强到没有争议，交易难度也随之提高。市场要的不是“还在增长”，而是更强的增速、更稳的毛利率、更长的订单周期，以及更少的自研替代风险。英伟达已经从AI行情的发动机，变成AI资本周期的温度计。温度还高，但资金开始看刻度变化，而不是只看火苗。芯片行情没有结束，只是从Beta变成挑公司四大巨头Capex共振，对芯片板块仍然是中期利好。这一点没必要回避。6500亿美元级别的基础设施投入，不可能不进入半导体产业链。GPU、ASIC、CPU、HBM、先进封装、光模块、交换芯片、电源管理、散热、服务器ODM、数据中心网络，都会被这轮AI建设周期反复拉动。Reuters也提到，美国芯片股近期创新高，费城半导体指数一度连续18个交易日创纪录，年内涨幅达到47%，市场仍在交易AI基础设施景气。但利好不再是均匀分配。上一阶段的芯片行情，是典型Beta：只要和AI算力沾边，估值都能跟着上。GPU涨，HBM涨，封装涨，服务器涨，甚至边缘零部件也能被贴上AI标签。现在，市场开始进入Alpha阶段，资金会追问每个环节的真实议价能力。最强的仍然是稀缺环节。HBM供应紧，先进封装产能紧，高端GPU生态和软件栈难复制，云厂核心网络和互联芯片门槛高。这些环节具备“订单可见+供给受限+利润率保护”的特征，仍然能拿到高估值。压力更大的，是单纯吃扩产周期的环节。如果一家公司的逻辑只停留在“AI服务器出货增加，所以订单增加”，估值弹性会越来越有限。因为市场会继续问：你有没有定价权？会不会被客户压价？扩产后毛利率能不能守住？大客户会不会导入第二供应商？行业从缺货转向结构性平衡后，低壁垒环节最容易出现“业绩增长、估值下移”。ASIC链条会变得更重要。亚马逊Trainium、谷歌TPU、Meta自研芯片，背后都对应一条非英伟达路径。它不会在短期内推翻GPU，但会重新分配利润。Broadcom、Marvell、台积电、先进封装、HBM厂商，都可能从云厂自研芯片中分到增量。芯片板块的机会，因此会从“押英伟达单点爆发”，扩展到“押云厂自研ASIC产业链”。AI服务器链条也会被重新筛选。算力中心不只需要芯片，还需要网络、存储、电源、液冷、机柜、光互联。随着数据中心电力密度提升，传统服务器供应链会被迫升级。受益最大的不是所有硬件公司，而是能解决瓶颈的公司：高端交换、800G/1.6T光模块、液冷方案、电源管理、高速连接器、先进散热材料，这些会比普通组装环节更容易拿到溢价。同时，也要警惕“资本开支利好被反向交易”。如果云厂Capex继续上修，短期利好芯片订单；但如果市场认为Capex过热，反而会担心未来需求提前透支。芯片股高位时经常出现这种悖论：客户花钱越多，短期订单越强；钱花得太猛，市场越担心下一轮放缓。英伟达、AMD、博通、台积电、HBM厂商都会受到这种情绪摆动影响。所以，芯片板块不是主线消失，而是主线更难做了。早期买方向，后期买质量；早期看订单，后期看利润率；早期看谁沾AI，后期看谁掌握瓶颈。AI还在加速，芯片股却要告别“无脑溢价”四大巨头这一轮财报，给AI产业链传递了一个很硬的信号：算力建设没有停，资本开支也没有停。微软还在补Azure产能，亚马逊用AWS和Trainium抢供给，Alphabet边扩云边补生态，Meta拿广告现金流押超级智能和推荐系统。AI不是热度退潮，而是进入更重、更贵、更考验回报率的阶段。对英伟达和芯片板块来说，这当然还是利好。没有6500亿美元级别的云厂预算，就没有数据中心芯片的超长景气。但市场已经不满足于“客户还在花钱”这句话。资金接下来会盯着三件事：订单能见度能延续多久，毛利率能否守住，云厂自研芯片会不会改写利润分配。这就是现在最核心的冲突：AI资本开支越强，越证明需求真实；投入越强，也越容易让市场提前透支预期。芯片股还能涨，但不会再是全行业一起涨。英伟达仍然是核心锚，HBM、先进封装、ASIC、光互联、液冷等环节会继续有结构性机会；那些只有“AI标签”、缺少定价权和产能壁垒的公司，会越来越难享受高估值。行业前瞻看，AI交易已经从“算力紧缺”走向“资本效率”。谁能帮云厂降低每Token成本、提升能效、缩短训练和推理时间，谁就能继续拿订单；谁只是在扩产周期里跟着景气跑，业绩兑现后反而可能被杀估值。所以，这轮四大巨头Capex分化没有削弱AI主线，反而让主线更清晰：未来不是所有芯片股都值钱，只有卡住瓶颈、守住利润率、站在云厂预算核心位置的公司，才配继续享受AI溢价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ANV":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":546521062819648,"gmtCreate":1774452716353,"gmtModify":1774452718490,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]","listText":"[强]","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546521062819648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544425523769880,"gmtCreate":1773941960199,"gmtModify":1773941962278,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544425523769880","repostId":"1184216480","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184216480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773898247,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184216480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 13:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋即中本聪","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184216480","media":"硅基立场","summary":"2026年3月，我坐在 NVIDIA GTC 会场里，听了黄仁勋一场几乎没有带货的主题演讲。而黄仁勋在 GTC 2026的舞台上，做了一件结构上一模一样的事。这张图几乎可以当作黄仁勋 “token 经济学” 的白皮书封面。中本聪和黄仁勋都没有直接生产 token，他们定义的都是 token 的生产规则和定价机制。而黄仁勋，用物理定律制造了天然稀缺。但无论是中本聪还是黄仁勋，他们创造的稀缺性都导致了同一个结果：硬件军备竞赛。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2009年1月，一个匿名者发明了一种叫 “token”的东西，你投入算力，获得 token，token在一个共识网络里流通、定价、交易。整个加密经济由此而生。十几年过去了，人们还在争论这种 token 到底有没有价值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年3月，一个穿皮衣的男人重新定义了另一种叫 token 的东西。你投入算力，产出 token，token在一个 AI 推理（inference &amp; reasoning ）过程中里被立刻消费掉：思考、推理、写代码、做决策。整个 AI 经济由此加速。没有人争论这种 token 有没有价值，因为你今天早上刚用掉了几百万个。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两种 token，同一个名字，同一个底层结构：算力进去，有价值的东西出来。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e30023ea8ec0245fdd64984dff21fae\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年3月，我坐在 NVIDIA GTC 会场里，听了黄仁勋一场几乎没有带货的主题演讲。是的，他发布了 Vera Rubin，一款 CPU 与 GPU 结合的产品。但这次，他没有讲芯片参数，没有讲制程工艺，他讲的是一套关于 token 生产、定价和消费的完整经济学——</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">哪种模型，对应哪种 token 速度；哪种 token速度，对应哪个定价区间；哪个定价区间，需要什么级别的硬件来支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他甚至帮台下的 CEO 和掌握着企业支票本的决策者们做好了数据中心的算力分配方案：25%给免费层，25%给中端，25%给高端，25%给高溢价层。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">是的，这次他没有具体卖哪款 GPU 组，就像两年前卖 Blackwell 那样。但这次，他在卖一些更大的东西。两个小时下来，我觉得他最想讲的一句话其实是：Welcome to consume tokens, and only Nvidia&#39;s factory could produce。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一刻我意识到，这个男人，和17年前那个匿名者挖出了第一个 token 的人，做的是结构上完全相同的一件事。</p><h2 id=\"id_2626211134\">同一套转化规则</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">化名为“中本聪”的那个匿名者，在2008年写了一篇九页的白皮书，设计了一套规则：投入算力，完成一个数学证明（Proof of Work），获得 crypto token 作为奖励。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个规则的精妙之处在于，他不需要任何人信任任何人——只要你接受这套规则，你就自动成为这个经济体的参与者。这个规则是对的，毕竟它让那么多尔虞我诈的人走到了一起。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而黄仁勋在 GTC 2026的舞台上，做了一件结构上一模一样的事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他展示了一张图，彰显推理效率与 token 消耗的关系和张力：Y 轴是吞吐量（每兆瓦功耗产出多少 token），X 轴是交互性（每个用户感知到的 token 速度）。然后，他在 X 轴下面标了五个定价档：Free 用Qwen 3，$0/百万token；Medium 用 Kimi K2.5，$3/百万token；High 用 GPT MoE，$6/百万 token；Premium 用 GPT MoE 400K context，$45/百万 token；而 Ultra，$150/百万token。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这张图几乎可以当作黄仁勋 “token 经济学” 的白皮书封面。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccec94a526bf879d69348bc826f36b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪定义了“什么是有价值的计算”——完成 SHA-256 哈希碰撞就是有价值的。而黄仁勋定义了“什么是有价值的推理”——在给定功耗约束下，以特定速度为特定场景产出 token就是有价值的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪和黄仁勋都没有直接生产 token，他们定义的都是 token 的生产规则和定价机制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">老黄在台上说的一句话，几乎可以直接写进 token 经济学白皮书的摘要——</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tokens are the new commodity, and like all commodities, once it reaches an inflection, once it becomes mature, it will segment into different parts.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Token是新的大宗商品。大宗商品成熟之后会自然分层。他不是在描述现状，他是在预判一个市场结构，然后把自己的硬件产品线，精确地铺在这个结构的每一层上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两种 token的生产过程，甚至有一个语义上的对称：挖矿叫 mining，推理叫 inference。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">挖矿和推理的本质，都是把电变成钱。矿工花电费挖 crypto token，然后卖掉，推理模型和 AI Agents 花电费产生 AI token，然后按百万计价卖给开发者。中间环节不同，两头都一样：左边是电表，右边是收入。</p><h2 id=\"id_3373420916\">稀缺性的两种写法</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪做过的最重要的设计决策，不是 Proof of Work，是2100万枚的比特币总量上限。他用代码制造了人工稀缺——不管有多少矿机涌入，比特币的总量永远不会超过2100万枚。这个稀缺性是整个加密经济的价值锚。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而黄仁勋，用物理定律制造了天然稀缺。他说——</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;You still have to build a gigawatt data center. You still have to build a gigawatt factory, and that one gigawatt factory for 15 years amortized... is about $40 billion even when you put nothing on it. It&#39;s $40 billion. You better make for darn sure you put the best computer system on that thing so that you can have the best token cost.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一个1GW 的数据中心永远不会变成 2GW。这不是代码限制，这是物理定律。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">土地、电力、散热——每一项都有物理上限。你花400美元亿建好的这个工厂，15年的生命周期里能产出多少 token，完全取决于你往里面放了什么计算架构。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4a1221945ad658bdae2be50d6fd8bfd\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪的稀缺性可以被 fork。不喜欢2100万枚的上限，fork一条新链，改成2亿枚，叫它以太币或什么鬼玩意儿，随你便，顺便再发个白皮书。而人们确实这么做了，乐此不疲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而老黄制造的稀缺性不能被fork。毕竟你不能 fork热力学第二定律，不能 fork一个城市的电网容量，不能 fork一块土地的物理面积。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但无论是中本聪还是黄仁勋，他们创造的稀缺性都导致了同一个结果：硬件军备竞赛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">挖矿的历史是：CPU→GPU→FPGA→ASIC。每一代专用硬件都让上一代变成废铁。而 AI 训练和推理的历史也正在重演：Hopper→Blackwell→Vera Rubin→Groq LPU。通用硬件起步，专用硬件定局。老黄今年 GTC 展示的 Groq LPU，那个收购了 Groq 之后发布的确定性数据流处理器。静态编译，编译器调度，没有动态调度，500MB片上SRAM——它架构哲学上就是推理领域的 ASIC。只做一件事，但做到极致。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有意思的是：GPU 在两波浪潮里都扮演了关键角色。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2013年前后，矿工们发现 GPU 比 CPU 更适合挖 crypto token，英伟达显卡被买断货。10年后，研究者们发现 GPU 是训练和推理 AI 模型的最佳工具，英伟达数据中心卡再次被买断货。GPU 作为一个处理器门类，先后服务了两代 token 经济。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而区别在于，第一次英伟达是被动受益，然后也就没然后了。而第二次，在 AI 算力消费的主战场从预训练切换到推理测的时候，英伟达很快抓住机会主动设计了整个游戏，成为 AI 游戏规则的写入者。</p><h2 id=\"id_29565238\">全世界最赚钱的铲子</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">淘金热里最赚钱的不是淘金者，是卖铲子的 Levi Strauss。挖矿潮里最赚钱的不是矿工，是卖矿机的比特大陆和吴忌寒。AI 预训练和推理浪里最赚钱的不是基座模型和 Agent，而是卖 GPU 的英伟达。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但讲真，比特大陆跟英伟达置于各自产业的角色，已不可同日语。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比特大陆只卖矿机，英伟达还曾是比特大陆的供应商。你买了矿机，挖什么币、去哪个矿池、以什么价格卖出，都跟比特大陆无关。它是一个纯硬件供应商，赚的是一次性的设备利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达不一样。他不只卖硬件，现在，尤其是2025年推理侧 AI 爆发以来，它深度定义了应该用这款 GPU 挖什么 、如何给 token定价、token 卖给谁、数据中心应该怎么分配算力…… 这些都在老黄的演讲 PPT 里：他把市场分成五个 tier，每个 tier 对应什么模型、上下文长度、交互速度和价格……英伟达标准化、格式化了未来 AI 推理驱动一切的市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2018年前后，全球算力集中在几个大矿池——F2Pool、Antpool、BTC.com——它们互相竞争算力份额，但矿机来源高度集中在比特大陆。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一如今天的英伟达，60% 收入来自互相竞争的 “hyperscaler”，例如 AWS、Azure、GCP、Oracle、CoreWeave，而 40%来自分散的 AI Natives、主权AI 项目和企业客户。大“矿池”贡献主要营收，小“矿工”提供韧性和多元化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两套生态的结构一模一样。但比特大陆后来遇到了竞争对手——神马矿机、芯动科技、嘉楠耘智都在蚕食它的份额。矿机是相对简单的 ASIC 设计，追赶者有机会。而撼动英伟达似乎变得越来越难：20年的 CUDA 生态，数亿 GPU 的安装基数，NVLink六代互联技术，Groq 整合后的解耦推理架构——英伟达的技术复杂性和生态壁垒，让大部分的竞争工具都无效了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这可能得持续20年。</p><h2 id=\"id_1944373886\">两种 token 的根本分叉</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而让加密货币和 AI 训练和推理两种 token 产生本质不同的，是人们使用的动机和心理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Crypto token 的需求侧是投机。没有人“需要”比特币来完成工作。所有宣称区块链代币能帮你解决问题的白皮书都是骗子些的。你持有 crypto，是因为相信未来会有人以更高的价格从你手里买走它。比特币的价值来自一个自我实现的预言：足够多的人相信它有价值，它就有价值。这是信仰经济。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而 AI token的需求侧是生产力。雀巢需要 token来做供应链决策——它的供应链数据从15分钟刷新一次变成3分钟刷新一次，成本降低83%，这个价值是可以直接映射到 P&amp;L 上的。英伟达 100%的工程师已经需要 token 来写代码而不是手搓；研究团队需要 token 从事科研。你不需要相信 token有价值，你只需要用它，价值就在使用中自证了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是两种 token最本质的区别。Crypto token被生产出来是为了被持有和交易——它的价值在于不使用。AI token 被生产出来是为了被立刻消费掉——它的价值在于被用掉的那一刻。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一种是数字黄金，越囤越值钱；一种是数字电力，生产出来就烧掉。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个区别决定了：AI token 经济不会像 crypto token 经济一样泡沫化。比特币大起大落，因为投机品的价格由情绪驱动。但token 的价格由使用量和生产成本驱动，只要 AI 持续有用——只要人们还在用 Claude Code 写代码、用 ChatGPT 写报告、用 Agent 跑业务流程，token 的需求就不会崩。它不靠信仰，靠的是离不开。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2008年，比特币白皮书需要反复一个去中心化的电子现金系统为什么有价值。17年过去了，人们还在争。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年，token 经济学没有引发任何争论，它甚至不需要论证就成了共识。老黄站在 GTC 的舞台上说“tokens are the new commodity”的时候，没有人质疑。因为台下坐着的每一个人，今天早上都用 Claude Code 或者 ChatGPT消费了几百万个 token。他们不需要被说服 token有价值——他们的信用卡账单已经证明了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从这个意义上，老黄真的是中本聪的副本，那个替中本聪留下来垄断了矿机生产、定义了 token 的使用场景和使用规范、而且一年一度在圣何塞 SAP Center 举办一场 show，告诉人们下一代支持 AI 训练和推理的“矿机”有多强的那个副本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中本聪有一种欲望审慎的魅力，他设计完规则，交给代码，然后消失。这是密码朋克的浪漫。而老黄比任何科学家都像生意人，他设计了规则，亲自维护，不断添砖加瓦，筑牢自己的护城河。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1773898294933","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋即中本聪\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-19 13:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TSI7E4H8cUguM5S0H1m70w><strong>硅基立场</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。2009年1月，一个匿名者发明了一种叫 “token”的东西，你投入算力，获得 token，token在一个共识网络里流通、定价、交易。整个加密经济由此而生。十几年过去了，人们还在争论这种 token 到底有没有价值。2025年3月，一个穿皮衣的男人重新定义了另一种叫 token 的东西。你投入算力，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TSI7E4H8cUguM5S0H1m70w\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2937b89917d7346ec63f69ec7c3fcc","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TSI7E4H8cUguM5S0H1m70w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184216480","content_text":"过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。2009年1月，一个匿名者发明了一种叫 “token”的东西，你投入算力，获得 token，token在一个共识网络里流通、定价、交易。整个加密经济由此而生。十几年过去了，人们还在争论这种 token 到底有没有价值。2025年3月，一个穿皮衣的男人重新定义了另一种叫 token 的东西。你投入算力，产出 token，token在一个 AI 推理（inference & reasoning ）过程中里被立刻消费掉：思考、推理、写代码、做决策。整个 AI 经济由此加速。没有人争论这种 token 有没有价值，因为你今天早上刚用掉了几百万个。两种 token，同一个名字，同一个底层结构：算力进去，有价值的东西出来。2026年3月，我坐在 NVIDIA GTC 会场里，听了黄仁勋一场几乎没有带货的主题演讲。是的，他发布了 Vera Rubin，一款 CPU 与 GPU 结合的产品。但这次，他没有讲芯片参数，没有讲制程工艺，他讲的是一套关于 token 生产、定价和消费的完整经济学——哪种模型，对应哪种 token 速度；哪种 token速度，对应哪个定价区间；哪个定价区间，需要什么级别的硬件来支撑。他甚至帮台下的 CEO 和掌握着企业支票本的决策者们做好了数据中心的算力分配方案：25%给免费层，25%给中端，25%给高端，25%给高溢价层。是的，这次他没有具体卖哪款 GPU 组，就像两年前卖 Blackwell 那样。但这次，他在卖一些更大的东西。两个小时下来，我觉得他最想讲的一句话其实是：Welcome to consume tokens, and only Nvidia's factory could produce。这一刻我意识到，这个男人，和17年前那个匿名者挖出了第一个 token 的人，做的是结构上完全相同的一件事。同一套转化规则化名为“中本聪”的那个匿名者，在2008年写了一篇九页的白皮书，设计了一套规则：投入算力，完成一个数学证明（Proof of Work），获得 crypto token 作为奖励。这个规则的精妙之处在于，他不需要任何人信任任何人——只要你接受这套规则，你就自动成为这个经济体的参与者。这个规则是对的，毕竟它让那么多尔虞我诈的人走到了一起。而黄仁勋在 GTC 2026的舞台上，做了一件结构上一模一样的事。他展示了一张图，彰显推理效率与 token 消耗的关系和张力：Y 轴是吞吐量（每兆瓦功耗产出多少 token），X 轴是交互性（每个用户感知到的 token 速度）。然后，他在 X 轴下面标了五个定价档：Free 用Qwen 3，$0/百万token；Medium 用 Kimi K2.5，$3/百万token；High 用 GPT MoE，$6/百万 token；Premium 用 GPT MoE 400K context，$45/百万 token；而 Ultra，$150/百万token。这张图几乎可以当作黄仁勋 “token 经济学” 的白皮书封面。中本聪定义了“什么是有价值的计算”——完成 SHA-256 哈希碰撞就是有价值的。而黄仁勋定义了“什么是有价值的推理”——在给定功耗约束下，以特定速度为特定场景产出 token就是有价值的。中本聪和黄仁勋都没有直接生产 token，他们定义的都是 token 的生产规则和定价机制。老黄在台上说的一句话，几乎可以直接写进 token 经济学白皮书的摘要——Tokens are the new commodity, and like all commodities, once it reaches an inflection, once it becomes mature, it will segment into different parts.Token是新的大宗商品。大宗商品成熟之后会自然分层。他不是在描述现状，他是在预判一个市场结构，然后把自己的硬件产品线，精确地铺在这个结构的每一层上。两种 token的生产过程，甚至有一个语义上的对称：挖矿叫 mining，推理叫 inference。挖矿和推理的本质，都是把电变成钱。矿工花电费挖 crypto token，然后卖掉，推理模型和 AI Agents 花电费产生 AI token，然后按百万计价卖给开发者。中间环节不同，两头都一样：左边是电表，右边是收入。稀缺性的两种写法中本聪做过的最重要的设计决策，不是 Proof of Work，是2100万枚的比特币总量上限。他用代码制造了人工稀缺——不管有多少矿机涌入，比特币的总量永远不会超过2100万枚。这个稀缺性是整个加密经济的价值锚。而黄仁勋，用物理定律制造了天然稀缺。他说——\"You still have to build a gigawatt data center. You still have to build a gigawatt factory, and that one gigawatt factory for 15 years amortized... is about $40 billion even when you put nothing on it. It's $40 billion. You better make for darn sure you put the best computer system on that thing so that you can have the best token cost.\"一个1GW 的数据中心永远不会变成 2GW。这不是代码限制，这是物理定律。土地、电力、散热——每一项都有物理上限。你花400美元亿建好的这个工厂，15年的生命周期里能产出多少 token，完全取决于你往里面放了什么计算架构。中本聪的稀缺性可以被 fork。不喜欢2100万枚的上限，fork一条新链，改成2亿枚，叫它以太币或什么鬼玩意儿，随你便，顺便再发个白皮书。而人们确实这么做了，乐此不疲。而老黄制造的稀缺性不能被fork。毕竟你不能 fork热力学第二定律，不能 fork一个城市的电网容量，不能 fork一块土地的物理面积。但无论是中本聪还是黄仁勋，他们创造的稀缺性都导致了同一个结果：硬件军备竞赛。挖矿的历史是：CPU→GPU→FPGA→ASIC。每一代专用硬件都让上一代变成废铁。而 AI 训练和推理的历史也正在重演：Hopper→Blackwell→Vera Rubin→Groq LPU。通用硬件起步，专用硬件定局。老黄今年 GTC 展示的 Groq LPU，那个收购了 Groq 之后发布的确定性数据流处理器。静态编译，编译器调度，没有动态调度，500MB片上SRAM——它架构哲学上就是推理领域的 ASIC。只做一件事，但做到极致。有意思的是：GPU 在两波浪潮里都扮演了关键角色。2013年前后，矿工们发现 GPU 比 CPU 更适合挖 crypto token，英伟达显卡被买断货。10年后，研究者们发现 GPU 是训练和推理 AI 模型的最佳工具，英伟达数据中心卡再次被买断货。GPU 作为一个处理器门类，先后服务了两代 token 经济。而区别在于，第一次英伟达是被动受益，然后也就没然后了。而第二次，在 AI 算力消费的主战场从预训练切换到推理测的时候，英伟达很快抓住机会主动设计了整个游戏，成为 AI 游戏规则的写入者。全世界最赚钱的铲子淘金热里最赚钱的不是淘金者，是卖铲子的 Levi Strauss。挖矿潮里最赚钱的不是矿工，是卖矿机的比特大陆和吴忌寒。AI 预训练和推理浪里最赚钱的不是基座模型和 Agent，而是卖 GPU 的英伟达。但讲真，比特大陆跟英伟达置于各自产业的角色，已不可同日语。比特大陆只卖矿机，英伟达还曾是比特大陆的供应商。你买了矿机，挖什么币、去哪个矿池、以什么价格卖出，都跟比特大陆无关。它是一个纯硬件供应商，赚的是一次性的设备利润。英伟达不一样。他不只卖硬件，现在，尤其是2025年推理侧 AI 爆发以来，它深度定义了应该用这款 GPU 挖什么 、如何给 token定价、token 卖给谁、数据中心应该怎么分配算力…… 这些都在老黄的演讲 PPT 里：他把市场分成五个 tier，每个 tier 对应什么模型、上下文长度、交互速度和价格……英伟达标准化、格式化了未来 AI 推理驱动一切的市场。2018年前后，全球算力集中在几个大矿池——F2Pool、Antpool、BTC.com——它们互相竞争算力份额，但矿机来源高度集中在比特大陆。一如今天的英伟达，60% 收入来自互相竞争的 “hyperscaler”，例如 AWS、Azure、GCP、Oracle、CoreWeave，而 40%来自分散的 AI Natives、主权AI 项目和企业客户。大“矿池”贡献主要营收，小“矿工”提供韧性和多元化。两套生态的结构一模一样。但比特大陆后来遇到了竞争对手——神马矿机、芯动科技、嘉楠耘智都在蚕食它的份额。矿机是相对简单的 ASIC 设计，追赶者有机会。而撼动英伟达似乎变得越来越难：20年的 CUDA 生态，数亿 GPU 的安装基数，NVLink六代互联技术，Groq 整合后的解耦推理架构——英伟达的技术复杂性和生态壁垒，让大部分的竞争工具都无效了。这可能得持续20年。两种 token 的根本分叉而让加密货币和 AI 训练和推理两种 token 产生本质不同的，是人们使用的动机和心理。Crypto token 的需求侧是投机。没有人“需要”比特币来完成工作。所有宣称区块链代币能帮你解决问题的白皮书都是骗子些的。你持有 crypto，是因为相信未来会有人以更高的价格从你手里买走它。比特币的价值来自一个自我实现的预言：足够多的人相信它有价值，它就有价值。这是信仰经济。而 AI token的需求侧是生产力。雀巢需要 token来做供应链决策——它的供应链数据从15分钟刷新一次变成3分钟刷新一次，成本降低83%，这个价值是可以直接映射到 P&L 上的。英伟达 100%的工程师已经需要 token 来写代码而不是手搓；研究团队需要 token 从事科研。你不需要相信 token有价值，你只需要用它，价值就在使用中自证了。这是两种 token最本质的区别。Crypto token被生产出来是为了被持有和交易——它的价值在于不使用。AI token 被生产出来是为了被立刻消费掉——它的价值在于被用掉的那一刻。一种是数字黄金，越囤越值钱；一种是数字电力，生产出来就烧掉。这个区别决定了：AI token 经济不会像 crypto token 经济一样泡沫化。比特币大起大落，因为投机品的价格由情绪驱动。但token 的价格由使用量和生产成本驱动，只要 AI 持续有用——只要人们还在用 Claude Code 写代码、用 ChatGPT 写报告、用 Agent 跑业务流程，token 的需求就不会崩。它不靠信仰，靠的是离不开。2008年，比特币白皮书需要反复一个去中心化的电子现金系统为什么有价值。17年过去了，人们还在争。2026年，token 经济学没有引发任何争论，它甚至不需要论证就成了共识。老黄站在 GTC 的舞台上说“tokens are the new commodity”的时候，没有人质疑。因为台下坐着的每一个人，今天早上都用 Claude Code 或者 ChatGPT消费了几百万个 token。他们不需要被说服 token有价值——他们的信用卡账单已经证明了。从这个意义上，老黄真的是中本聪的副本，那个替中本聪留下来垄断了矿机生产、定义了 token 的使用场景和使用规范、而且一年一度在圣何塞 SAP Center 举办一场 show，告诉人们下一代支持 AI 训练和推理的“矿机”有多强的那个副本。中本聪有一种欲望审慎的魅力，他设计完规则，交给代码，然后消失。这是密码朋克的浪漫。而老黄比任何科学家都像生意人，他设计了规则，亲自维护，不断添砖加瓦，筑牢自己的护城河。你过去因为相信所以看见的那个 token，现在不用相信就能看见。它是瓦特、安培、比特之后的下一个。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544424935989280,"gmtCreate":1773941733797,"gmtModify":1773941736345,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"很有可能啊🤔","listText":"很有可能啊🤔","text":"很有可能啊🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544424935989280","repostId":"2620214523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2620214523","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1773904288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620214523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620214523","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"霍尔木兹海峡封锁切断石油美元循环，每年数千亿中东资本或从AI产业链上撤离；与此同时，规模1.8万亿美元的美国私募信贷火药桶已从内部点燃——贝莱德冻结赎回、Apollo高管坦言贷款\"能收回20美分就不错\"。当战争从\"四周速决\"蔓延为第五个月，三重危机正向同一个引爆点狂奔。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。</p>\n<p>表面上看，霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。</p>\n<p>更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。</p>\n<p>当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街失血”，两条危机线索正以向着同一个终点狂奔：一场酝酿中的美国金融危机。</p>\n<p>以色列与伊朗的互相袭击向核心能源设施蔓延，华尔街最初“冲突几周就会结束”的幻想正在破灭。如果伊朗战争继续拖长，危机可能在同一个点上引爆。</p>\n<h2>石油美元：AI繁荣背后的中东资本</h2>\n<p>要理解这场危机的深层逻辑，必须先看懂全球金融机器里隐秘的齿轮：石油美元循环（Petrocapital Cycle）。</p>\n<p>这个概念最早由经济学家el-Gamal和Jaffe系统提出：<strong>海湾产油国将卖石油赚来的天量美元，以投资的形式重新注入国际金融市场。这不仅防止了中东国家内部通胀过热，更为全球信贷体系提供了源源不断的流动性。</strong></p>\n<p>自1973年石油危机诞生以来，这套循环就是支撑全球金融运转的隐形基石。历史早已证明，一旦这根血管被掐断，代价将是灾难性的。</p>\n<p>1979年石油冲击叠加1980年两伊战争，海湾国家为了打仗，将巨额资本从国际银行体系中疯狂抽离。结果是拉美国家资金链断裂，直接酿成了1982年拉美主权债务危机——这是历史上第一次由“石油美元断流”引发的系统性金融危机。</p>\n<p>如今，这套循环的规模已膨胀到令人咋舌的地步。截至2025年11月，仅阿联酋金融业持有的资产规模就高达1.4万亿美元。</p>\n<p>更重要的是，中东的钱，去哪了？答案是：硅谷和华尔街。</p>\n<p><strong>当下最炙手可热的AI赛道，无论是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的芯片、OpenAI的估值，还是私募市场里疯狂扩张的科技软件贷款，背后都站着中东金主。</strong></p>\n<p>去年沙特王储萨勒曼访美，不仅承诺将对美投资从6000亿飙升至1万亿美元，更直接点名“AI芯片与算力”是核心。随后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>等科技巨头与沙特签下800亿美元的“尖端技术”投资协议；沙特DataVolt更是豪掷200亿美元砸向美国AI数据中心。</p>\n<p>换句话说，中东的石油美元，早就深度焊死在了美国AI产业的资本链条上。</p>\n<p>然而，2月28日，齿轮卡壳了。</p>\n<p>霍尔木兹海峡关闭，伊朗布设水雷。惠誉起初还乐观预测“封锁一个月冲击温和”，但现实狠狠打了脸：海峡不仅长期受阻，关键油气基础设施更遭到持续轰炸。</p>\n<p>石油美元这条流向美国资本市场的大动脉，正在被战争死死勒紧。</p>\n<h2>私募信贷：已在燃烧的火药桶</h2>\n<p>如果说中东是外部断流，那么美国金融体系内部，一场危机早已悄然成形。</p>\n<p>在伊朗战争爆发前，华尔街的私募信贷市场就已经踩在了悬崖边上。而亲手推它下悬崖的，正是中东资本疯狂追捧的AI。</p>\n<p>过去几年，私募信贷野蛮生长，他们最喜欢干的事，就是把钱借给被私募股权收购的科技软件（SaaS）公司，赚取高额利差。瑞银和巴克莱的数据揭示了一个恐怖的集中度：私募信贷的贷款簿里，商业服务和信息技术加起来占比高达55%。</p>\n<p><strong>这本是一场完美的资本游戏，直到Anthropic的Claude横空出世。</strong></p>\n<p>AI开始以摧枯拉朽之势颠覆传统软件公司的商业模式。SaaS公司股价暴跌，它们偿还贷款的现金流瞬间成了画饼。底层资产烂了，私募信贷的多米诺骨牌随之倒塌。</p>\n<p>看看这份“崩盘时间表”：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>2月3日：私募信贷股票崩跌，“SaaS末日”冲击波蔓延；</li>\n<li>2月21日：巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OBDE\">Blue Owl</a>出现异常赎回，被华尔街视为“矿井里的金丝雀”；</li>\n<li>2月26日：瑞银警告，创纪录的“连锁违约”即将到来；</li>\n<li>3月5日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>（BlackRock）直接将一笔私人贷款从面值100硬生生砍到0；</li>\n<li>3月6日：全球最大资管公司贝莱德对260亿美元基金实施“关门打狗”（限制赎回）；</li>\n<li>3月11日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>下调抵押品估值，直接限制对私募机构放贷。</li>\n</ul>\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、贝莱德、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在内的巨头，已经面临超101亿美元的赎回挤兑，且只能勉强兑付70%。</p>\n<p>行业大佬的表态更是扯下了最后一块遮羞布。Apollo联席总裁John Zito在瑞银内部会议上直言：一家普通中小型软件公司的贷款，能收回20到40美分就算不错了。至于赎回潮会持续多久？“我也不知道。”</p>\n<p>摩根大通连夜撤回了Qualtrics 53亿美元的债务发行。美银分析师更是将当下的空气，闻出了2008年次贷危机的味道——“当年大家都说次级贷款只是局部问题，直到它掀翻了整个世界。”</p>\n<h2>战争时间表：越拖越危险</h2>\n<p>面对如此脆弱的金融底座，美股为什么还没崩？</p>\n<p>因为华尔街的精英们还在死守一个假设：这只是一场速战速决的局部冲突。</p>\n<p>最初，TS Lombard全球政治研究董事总经理Christopher Granville的基准预测是：冲突最多持续四到五周，市场扛得住。</p>\n<p>但这层窗户纸，在3月18日被彻底捅破。</p>\n<p>当天，以色列直接炸了伊朗最大的天然气田；作为报复，伊朗当晚用导弹端了卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城（重要能源枢纽）。</p>\n<p><strong>Granville连夜修改报告，将预测从“短暂冲击”直接上调为“类似2022年俄乌战争的五个月能源震荡”。</strong>他极其悲观地指出：重开海峡的方案大概率会失败。虽然特朗普为了大选不想看到高油价，但他那句“封锁海峡是其他国家的问题”，让美国尽早介入平息战火的可能性变得微乎其微。</p>\n<p>Arbroath Group管理合伙人Christopher Smart更是点出了一个让人绝望的现实：“即便明天奇迹般停火，世界也已经明白——全球20%石油的自由通行，取决于伊朗未来政府的心情。”</p>\n<p>瑞银策略师Bhanu Baweja发出了最后的警告：华尔街习惯了“政策一出问题美联储就会救市”的巨婴模式，但他们根本没有为一场持久战做好准备。如果冲突拖到4月，油价可能击穿150美元/桶。</p>\n<h2>三重危机交汇</h2>\n<p>将这三条线索交织在一起，一幅金融危机路线图徐徐展开：</p>\n<ol>\n<li>源头断水： 战争切断石油美元循环，抽干了原本流向美国AI和资本市场的中东流动性；</li>\n<li>内部失血： 规模高达1.8万亿美元的私募信贷市场，正在AI的冲击下面临生死重估，挤兑与违约相互踩踏；</li>\n<li>战争长期化： 战争长期化带来的高油价，将死死锁住美联储降息的空间，让本就脆弱的信贷环境雪上加霜。</li>\n</ol>\n<p>危机从来不会以人们预想的方式降临。它总是从一个看似遥远的局部冲突开始，顺着隐秘的资本血脉，最终在最繁华的金融中心，引发一场无人幸免的雪崩。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗战争会是“美国金融危机”导火索吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 15:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。</p>\n<p>表面上看，霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。</p>\n<p>更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。</p>\n<p>当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街失血”，两条危机线索正以向着同一个终点狂奔：一场酝酿中的美国金融危机。</p>\n<p>以色列与伊朗的互相袭击向核心能源设施蔓延，华尔街最初“冲突几周就会结束”的幻想正在破灭。如果伊朗战争继续拖长，危机可能在同一个点上引爆。</p>\n<h2>石油美元：AI繁荣背后的中东资本</h2>\n<p>要理解这场危机的深层逻辑，必须先看懂全球金融机器里隐秘的齿轮：石油美元循环（Petrocapital Cycle）。</p>\n<p>这个概念最早由经济学家el-Gamal和Jaffe系统提出：<strong>海湾产油国将卖石油赚来的天量美元，以投资的形式重新注入国际金融市场。这不仅防止了中东国家内部通胀过热，更为全球信贷体系提供了源源不断的流动性。</strong></p>\n<p>自1973年石油危机诞生以来，这套循环就是支撑全球金融运转的隐形基石。历史早已证明，一旦这根血管被掐断，代价将是灾难性的。</p>\n<p>1979年石油冲击叠加1980年两伊战争，海湾国家为了打仗，将巨额资本从国际银行体系中疯狂抽离。结果是拉美国家资金链断裂，直接酿成了1982年拉美主权债务危机——这是历史上第一次由“石油美元断流”引发的系统性金融危机。</p>\n<p>如今，这套循环的规模已膨胀到令人咋舌的地步。截至2025年11月，仅阿联酋金融业持有的资产规模就高达1.4万亿美元。</p>\n<p>更重要的是，中东的钱，去哪了？答案是：硅谷和华尔街。</p>\n<p><strong>当下最炙手可热的AI赛道，无论是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的芯片、OpenAI的估值，还是私募市场里疯狂扩张的科技软件贷款，背后都站着中东金主。</strong></p>\n<p>去年沙特王储萨勒曼访美，不仅承诺将对美投资从6000亿飙升至1万亿美元，更直接点名“AI芯片与算力”是核心。随后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>等科技巨头与沙特签下800亿美元的“尖端技术”投资协议；沙特DataVolt更是豪掷200亿美元砸向美国AI数据中心。</p>\n<p>换句话说，中东的石油美元，早就深度焊死在了美国AI产业的资本链条上。</p>\n<p>然而，2月28日，齿轮卡壳了。</p>\n<p>霍尔木兹海峡关闭，伊朗布设水雷。惠誉起初还乐观预测“封锁一个月冲击温和”，但现实狠狠打了脸：海峡不仅长期受阻，关键油气基础设施更遭到持续轰炸。</p>\n<p>石油美元这条流向美国资本市场的大动脉，正在被战争死死勒紧。</p>\n<h2>私募信贷：已在燃烧的火药桶</h2>\n<p>如果说中东是外部断流，那么美国金融体系内部，一场危机早已悄然成形。</p>\n<p>在伊朗战争爆发前，华尔街的私募信贷市场就已经踩在了悬崖边上。而亲手推它下悬崖的，正是中东资本疯狂追捧的AI。</p>\n<p>过去几年，私募信贷野蛮生长，他们最喜欢干的事，就是把钱借给被私募股权收购的科技软件（SaaS）公司，赚取高额利差。瑞银和巴克莱的数据揭示了一个恐怖的集中度：私募信贷的贷款簿里，商业服务和信息技术加起来占比高达55%。</p>\n<p><strong>这本是一场完美的资本游戏，直到Anthropic的Claude横空出世。</strong></p>\n<p>AI开始以摧枯拉朽之势颠覆传统软件公司的商业模式。SaaS公司股价暴跌，它们偿还贷款的现金流瞬间成了画饼。底层资产烂了，私募信贷的多米诺骨牌随之倒塌。</p>\n<p>看看这份“崩盘时间表”：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>2月3日：私募信贷股票崩跌，“SaaS末日”冲击波蔓延；</li>\n<li>2月21日：巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OBDE\">Blue Owl</a>出现异常赎回，被华尔街视为“矿井里的金丝雀”；</li>\n<li>2月26日：瑞银警告，创纪录的“连锁违约”即将到来；</li>\n<li>3月5日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>（BlackRock）直接将一笔私人贷款从面值100硬生生砍到0；</li>\n<li>3月6日：全球最大资管公司贝莱德对260亿美元基金实施“关门打狗”（限制赎回）；</li>\n<li>3月11日：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>下调抵押品估值，直接限制对私募机构放贷。</li>\n</ul>\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、贝莱德、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在内的巨头，已经面临超101亿美元的赎回挤兑，且只能勉强兑付70%。</p>\n<p>行业大佬的表态更是扯下了最后一块遮羞布。Apollo联席总裁John Zito在瑞银内部会议上直言：一家普通中小型软件公司的贷款，能收回20到40美分就算不错了。至于赎回潮会持续多久？“我也不知道。”</p>\n<p>摩根大通连夜撤回了Qualtrics 53亿美元的债务发行。美银分析师更是将当下的空气，闻出了2008年次贷危机的味道——“当年大家都说次级贷款只是局部问题，直到它掀翻了整个世界。”</p>\n<h2>战争时间表：越拖越危险</h2>\n<p>面对如此脆弱的金融底座，美股为什么还没崩？</p>\n<p>因为华尔街的精英们还在死守一个假设：这只是一场速战速决的局部冲突。</p>\n<p>最初，TS Lombard全球政治研究董事总经理Christopher Granville的基准预测是：冲突最多持续四到五周，市场扛得住。</p>\n<p>但这层窗户纸，在3月18日被彻底捅破。</p>\n<p>当天，以色列直接炸了伊朗最大的天然气田；作为报复，伊朗当晚用导弹端了卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城（重要能源枢纽）。</p>\n<p><strong>Granville连夜修改报告，将预测从“短暂冲击”直接上调为“类似2022年俄乌战争的五个月能源震荡”。</strong>他极其悲观地指出：重开海峡的方案大概率会失败。虽然特朗普为了大选不想看到高油价，但他那句“封锁海峡是其他国家的问题”，让美国尽早介入平息战火的可能性变得微乎其微。</p>\n<p>Arbroath Group管理合伙人Christopher Smart更是点出了一个让人绝望的现实：“即便明天奇迹般停火，世界也已经明白——全球20%石油的自由通行，取决于伊朗未来政府的心情。”</p>\n<p>瑞银策略师Bhanu Baweja发出了最后的警告：华尔街习惯了“政策一出问题美联储就会救市”的巨婴模式，但他们根本没有为一场持久战做好准备。如果冲突拖到4月，油价可能击穿150美元/桶。</p>\n<h2>三重危机交汇</h2>\n<p>将这三条线索交织在一起，一幅金融危机路线图徐徐展开：</p>\n<ol>\n<li>源头断水： 战争切断石油美元循环，抽干了原本流向美国AI和资本市场的中东流动性；</li>\n<li>内部失血： 规模高达1.8万亿美元的私募信贷市场，正在AI的冲击下面临生死重估，挤兑与违约相互踩踏；</li>\n<li>战争长期化： 战争长期化带来的高油价，将死死锁住美联储降息的空间，让本就脆弱的信贷环境雪上加霜。</li>\n</ol>\n<p>危机从来不会以人们预想的方式降临。它总是从一个看似遥远的局部冲突开始，顺着隐秘的资本血脉，最终在最繁华的金融中心，引发一场无人幸免的雪崩。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bfb10b06725af696d5ea08c128fdad5","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","BK4023":"应用软件","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4543":"AI","AIYY":"YIELDMAX AI OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620214523","content_text":"一场远在中东的战争，正在精准地切断美国金融体系的“大动脉”。\n表面上看，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁只是一场地缘政治引发的能源危机；但在水面之下，它正在阻断一条支撑全球资本市场运转数十年的隐秘血脉——石油美元循环。\n更为致命的是，大洋彼岸的美国，一个规模庞大的火药桶早已咝咝作响：美国私募信贷市场正以加速度恶化，消费贷款基金冻结赎回、华尔街巨头紧急撤回债务发行、行业高管公开预警。\n当“中东断流”撞上“华尔街失血”，两条危机线索正以向着同一个终点狂奔：一场酝酿中的美国金融危机。\n以色列与伊朗的互相袭击向核心能源设施蔓延，华尔街最初“冲突几周就会结束”的幻想正在破灭。如果伊朗战争继续拖长，危机可能在同一个点上引爆。\n石油美元：AI繁荣背后的中东资本\n要理解这场危机的深层逻辑，必须先看懂全球金融机器里隐秘的齿轮：石油美元循环（Petrocapital Cycle）。\n这个概念最早由经济学家el-Gamal和Jaffe系统提出：海湾产油国将卖石油赚来的天量美元，以投资的形式重新注入国际金融市场。这不仅防止了中东国家内部通胀过热，更为全球信贷体系提供了源源不断的流动性。\n自1973年石油危机诞生以来，这套循环就是支撑全球金融运转的隐形基石。历史早已证明，一旦这根血管被掐断，代价将是灾难性的。\n1979年石油冲击叠加1980年两伊战争，海湾国家为了打仗，将巨额资本从国际银行体系中疯狂抽离。结果是拉美国家资金链断裂，直接酿成了1982年拉美主权债务危机——这是历史上第一次由“石油美元断流”引发的系统性金融危机。\n如今，这套循环的规模已膨胀到令人咋舌的地步。截至2025年11月，仅阿联酋金融业持有的资产规模就高达1.4万亿美元。\n更重要的是，中东的钱，去哪了？答案是：硅谷和华尔街。\n当下最炙手可热的AI赛道，无论是英伟达的芯片、OpenAI的估值，还是私募市场里疯狂扩张的科技软件贷款，背后都站着中东金主。\n去年沙特王储萨勒曼访美，不仅承诺将对美投资从6000亿飙升至1万亿美元，更直接点名“AI芯片与算力”是核心。随后，谷歌、甲骨文、AMD等科技巨头与沙特签下800亿美元的“尖端技术”投资协议；沙特DataVolt更是豪掷200亿美元砸向美国AI数据中心。\n换句话说，中东的石油美元，早就深度焊死在了美国AI产业的资本链条上。\n然而，2月28日，齿轮卡壳了。\n霍尔木兹海峡关闭，伊朗布设水雷。惠誉起初还乐观预测“封锁一个月冲击温和”，但现实狠狠打了脸：海峡不仅长期受阻，关键油气基础设施更遭到持续轰炸。\n石油美元这条流向美国资本市场的大动脉，正在被战争死死勒紧。\n私募信贷：已在燃烧的火药桶\n如果说中东是外部断流，那么美国金融体系内部，一场危机早已悄然成形。\n在伊朗战争爆发前，华尔街的私募信贷市场就已经踩在了悬崖边上。而亲手推它下悬崖的，正是中东资本疯狂追捧的AI。\n过去几年，私募信贷野蛮生长，他们最喜欢干的事，就是把钱借给被私募股权收购的科技软件（SaaS）公司，赚取高额利差。瑞银和巴克莱的数据揭示了一个恐怖的集中度：私募信贷的贷款簿里，商业服务和信息技术加起来占比高达55%。\n这本是一场完美的资本游戏，直到Anthropic的Claude横空出世。\nAI开始以摧枯拉朽之势颠覆传统软件公司的商业模式。SaaS公司股价暴跌，它们偿还贷款的现金流瞬间成了画饼。底层资产烂了，私募信贷的多米诺骨牌随之倒塌。\n看看这份“崩盘时间表”：\n\n\n2月3日：私募信贷股票崩跌，“SaaS末日”冲击波蔓延；\n2月21日：巨头Blue Owl出现异常赎回，被华尔街视为“矿井里的金丝雀”；\n2月26日：瑞银警告，创纪录的“连锁违约”即将到来；\n3月5日：贝莱德（BlackRock）直接将一笔私人贷款从面值100硬生生砍到0；\n3月6日：全球最大资管公司贝莱德对260亿美元基金实施“关门打狗”（限制赎回）；\n3月11日：摩根大通下调抵押品估值，直接限制对私募机构放贷。\n\n\n目前，包括黑石、贝莱德、摩根士丹利在内的巨头，已经面临超101亿美元的赎回挤兑，且只能勉强兑付70%。\n行业大佬的表态更是扯下了最后一块遮羞布。Apollo联席总裁John Zito在瑞银内部会议上直言：一家普通中小型软件公司的贷款，能收回20到40美分就算不错了。至于赎回潮会持续多久？“我也不知道。”\n摩根大通连夜撤回了Qualtrics 53亿美元的债务发行。美银分析师更是将当下的空气，闻出了2008年次贷危机的味道——“当年大家都说次级贷款只是局部问题，直到它掀翻了整个世界。”\n战争时间表：越拖越危险\n面对如此脆弱的金融底座，美股为什么还没崩？\n因为华尔街的精英们还在死守一个假设：这只是一场速战速决的局部冲突。\n最初，TS Lombard全球政治研究董事总经理Christopher Granville的基准预测是：冲突最多持续四到五周，市场扛得住。\n但这层窗户纸，在3月18日被彻底捅破。\n当天，以色列直接炸了伊朗最大的天然气田；作为报复，伊朗当晚用导弹端了卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工业城（重要能源枢纽）。\nGranville连夜修改报告，将预测从“短暂冲击”直接上调为“类似2022年俄乌战争的五个月能源震荡”。他极其悲观地指出：重开海峡的方案大概率会失败。虽然特朗普为了大选不想看到高油价，但他那句“封锁海峡是其他国家的问题”，让美国尽早介入平息战火的可能性变得微乎其微。\nArbroath Group管理合伙人Christopher Smart更是点出了一个让人绝望的现实：“即便明天奇迹般停火，世界也已经明白——全球20%石油的自由通行，取决于伊朗未来政府的心情。”\n瑞银策略师Bhanu Baweja发出了最后的警告：华尔街习惯了“政策一出问题美联储就会救市”的巨婴模式，但他们根本没有为一场持久战做好准备。如果冲突拖到4月，油价可能击穿150美元/桶。\n三重危机交汇\n将这三条线索交织在一起，一幅金融危机路线图徐徐展开：\n\n源头断水： 战争切断石油美元循环，抽干了原本流向美国AI和资本市场的中东流动性；\n内部失血： 规模高达1.8万亿美元的私募信贷市场，正在AI的冲击下面临生死重估，挤兑与违约相互踩踏；\n战争长期化： 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[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544328987922656","repostId":"2620401041","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620401041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773791140,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620401041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-18 07:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620401041","media":"南方财经网","summary":"南方财经3月18日电，当地时间3月17日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在接受采访时表示，他提到的2025年至2027年收入1万亿美元的预判，只包含Blackwell和Rubin芯片的收入，不包含CPU等多元业务的收入。英伟达对这1万亿美元的收入预判是来自这部分业务的能见度和采购订单，英伟达对此有信心。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.NVDA&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　南方财经3月18日电，当地时间3月17日，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></span><span></span>CEO黄仁勋在接受采访时表示，他提到的2025年至2027年收入1万亿美元的预判，只包含Blackwell和Rubin芯片的收入，不包含CPU等多元业务的收入。<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">英伟达</span>对这1万亿美元的收入预判是来自这部分业务的能见度和采购订单，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.NVDA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">英伟达</span>对此有信心。（第一财经） </p><p>（文章来源：南方财经网）</p> </div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄仁勋：有信心达成1万亿美元收入预判\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-18 07:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202603183675177985.html><strong>南方财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>南方财经3月18日电，当地时间3月17日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在接受采访时表示，他提到的2025年至2027年收入1万亿美元的预判，只包含Blackwell和Rubin芯片的收入，不包含CPU等多元业务的收入。英伟达对这1万亿美元的收入预判是来自这部分业务的能见度和采购订单，英伟达对此有信心。（第一财经） （文章来源：南方财经网）</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202603183675177985.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0001KFT4U8.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE GLOBAL GROWTH LEADERS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1202635105.USD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USDHDG) INC","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY 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（文章来源：南方财经网）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDA":1.94,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544328642262560,"gmtCreate":1773918238070,"gmtModify":1773918240143,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544328642262560","repostId":"2620075292","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2620075292","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"链捕手ChainCatcher 成立于 2018 年，是一家领先的中文 Web3 媒体及数据服务商。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"链捕手","id":"1041503808","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f0784cc29a0d0070f6e968ef6ec7f5"},"pubTimestamp":1773885026,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2620075292?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 09:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620075292","media":"链捕手","summary":" ChainCatcher 消息，马斯克表示，SpaceX AI 和特斯拉 (TSLA.O) 预计将大规模持续订购英伟达 (NVDA.O) 芯片。 ","content":"<html><body><p><span>ChainCatcher 消息，马斯克表示，SpaceX AI 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> (TSLA.O) 预计将大规模持续订购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> (NVDA.O) 芯片。</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克：SpaceX AI 和特斯拉预计将大规模持续订购英伟达芯片\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1041503808\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64f0784cc29a0d0070f6e968ef6ec7f5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">链捕手 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 09:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><span>ChainCatcher 消息，马斯克表示，SpaceX AI 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> (TSLA.O) 预计将大规模持续订购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> (NVDA.O) 芯片。</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc 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16:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 美联储政策压制及白银期货跳水，2倍做多白银ETF盘前大跌11.27%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126067483","media":"异动解读","summary":"2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares（AGQ）今日盘前股价大跌11.27%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到白银期货价格大幅走弱的拖累。美联储在近期会议上宣布维持利率不变，且降息预期进一步收敛，对金银等贵金属价格形成压制。同时，中东地缘冲突持续发酵，市场情绪偏向谨慎，加剧了白银的抛售压力。作为追踪白银价格并带有两倍杠杆的ETF，AGQ的波动幅度被显著放大。隔夜交易中，COMEX白银期货价格一度下跌超7%，现货白银也大幅下挫，直接导致了该杠杆ETF的剧烈下跌。","content":"<p>2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares（AGQ）今日盘前股价大跌11.27%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次下跌主要受到白银期货价格大幅走弱的拖累。美联储在近期会议上宣布维持利率不变，且降息预期进一步收敛，对金银等贵金属价格形成压制。同时，中东地缘冲突持续发酵，市场情绪偏向谨慎，加剧了白银的抛售压力。</p><p>作为追踪白银价格并带有两倍杠杆的ETF，AGQ的波动幅度被显著放大。隔夜交易中，COMEX白银期货价格一度下跌超7%，现货白银也大幅下挫，直接导致了该杠杆ETF的剧烈下跌。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 美联储政策压制及白银期货跳水，2倍做多白银ETF盘前大跌11.27%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 16:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares（AGQ）今日盘前股价大跌11.27%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次下跌主要受到白银期货价格大幅走弱的拖累。美联储在近期会议上宣布维持利率不变，且降息预期进一步收敛，对金银等贵金属价格形成压制。同时，中东地缘冲突持续发酵，市场情绪偏向谨慎，加剧了白银的抛售压力。</p><p>作为追踪白银价格并带有两倍杠杆的ETF，AGQ的波动幅度被显著放大。隔夜交易中，COMEX白银期货价格一度下跌超7%，现货白银也大幅下挫，直接导致了该杠杆ETF的剧烈下跌。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AGQ":"2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126067483","content_text":"2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares（AGQ）今日盘前股价大跌11.27%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到白银期货价格大幅走弱的拖累。美联储在近期会议上宣布维持利率不变，且降息预期进一步收敛，对金银等贵金属价格形成压制。同时，中东地缘冲突持续发酵，市场情绪偏向谨慎，加剧了白银的抛售压力。作为追踪白银价格并带有两倍杠杆的ETF，AGQ的波动幅度被显著放大。隔夜交易中，COMEX白银期货价格一度下跌超7%，现货白银也大幅下挫，直接导致了该杠杆ETF的剧烈下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AGQ":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":544322680864880,"gmtCreate":1773916772947,"gmtModify":1773916774767,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544322680864880","repostId":"1176243321","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176243321","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1773908968,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176243321?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 16:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 2倍做多黄金ETF盘前大跌5.14%，受美联储鹰派立场及中东冲突打压","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176243321","media":"异动解读","summary":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。","content":"<p>2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares（UGL）今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。其次，中东地缘冲突急剧升级，伊朗威胁打击沙特、阿联酋和卡塔尔的石油设施，导致国际油价飙升，加剧了市场对通胀上行的担忧，进而强化了美联储将利率维持在高位更长时间的预期，对金价构成直接压力。</p><p>此外，在市场避险情绪升温的背景下，资金并未完全流入黄金，反而更多地涌向美元等流动性更强的资产，推动美元指数走强，这也进一步打压了以美元计价的黄金价格。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | 2倍做多黄金ETF盘前大跌5.14%，受美联储鹰派立场及中东冲突打压\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 16:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares（UGL）今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。其次，中东地缘冲突急剧升级，伊朗威胁打击沙特、阿联酋和卡塔尔的石油设施，导致国际油价飙升，加剧了市场对通胀上行的担忧，进而强化了美联储将利率维持在高位更长时间的预期，对金价构成直接压力。</p><p>此外，在市场避险情绪升温的背景下，资金并未完全流入黄金，反而更多地涌向美元等流动性更强的资产，推动美元指数走强，这也进一步打压了以美元计价的黄金价格。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176243321","content_text":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares（UGL）今日盘前股价大跌5.14%，引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上，此次下跌主要受到多重因素影响。首先，美联储在最新议息会议上宣布维持利率不变，且点阵图显示决策者预计今年仅会降息一次，释放出偏鹰派的信号，这削弱了黄金作为无息资产的吸引力。其次，中东地缘冲突急剧升级，伊朗威胁打击沙特、阿联酋和卡塔尔的石油设施，导致国际油价飙升，加剧了市场对通胀上行的担忧，进而强化了美联储将利率维持在高位更长时间的预期，对金价构成直接压力。此外，在市场避险情绪升温的背景下，资金并未完全流入黄金，反而更多地涌向美元等流动性更强的资产，推动美元指数走强，这也进一步打压了以美元计价的黄金价格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UGL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":541201488273944,"gmtCreate":1773154842158,"gmtModify":1773154844462,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/541201488273944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539845298259008,"gmtCreate":1772816238306,"gmtModify":1772816240298,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539845298259008","repostId":"2617883836","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2617883836","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772785548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617883836?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-06 16:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“银色狂想曲”再度激昂？供需赤字与工业叙事共振，白银再战100美元大关","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617883836","media":"智通财经","summary":"“银色狂想曲”迈向新牛市篇章？供需持续结构性赤字以及前沿技术领域的愈发火热工业应用需求助力，将在很大程度上支撑白银价格强势上行。花旗预计银价将在2026年第二季度再次向高点演进，甚至有望冲击110至150美元区间。美银认为若金价维持在5,000美元附","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今年以来最疯狂金属——白银的“聚光灯时刻”似乎还未结束，尽管这一贵金属资产在1月30日经历了十多年来最大规模的惨烈跌幅，且一度突破了每盎司超过100美元的史诗级关口。一些大宗商品分析师基于强劲的工业需求、供应长期结构性紧缺和避险资金流入等因素认为银价有望在2026年重新挑战100美元这一心理关口甚至有概率突破每盎司120美元这一历史峰值点位，部分更激进的预测甚至把目标放在更高水平。</p><p>在过去的一年里，虽然经历了自1月底创下的历史最高点位121.678美元以来高达30%的回调幅度，但是白银价值仍然上涨两倍多，大幅超过了最大市值规模贵金属黄金的涨幅，并使黄金与白银之间的比率达到了新的低点——即一盎司黄金等于多少盎司白银的金银比例。相比之下，黄金现货价格在过去一年上涨了约90%。当前现货白银价格徘徊在85美元附近，自2月低点以来大幅反弹近20%。</p><p>一些长期跟踪贵金属的分析师们表示，跟踪黄金价格走势轨迹，以及黄金与白银的比率可以提供白银是否被低估的重要线索。</p><p>“黄金与白银的比率当前中枢徘徊在48，而长期平均水平约为65，长期低值时为30，”来自Gabelli的黄金基金投资组合经理克里斯·曼奇尼(Chris Mancini)表示。“如果比率降到30的低点，那么在每盎司黄金为5100美元的情况下，白银的价格将是170美元每盎司。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3919a5243b63451714bb1e466e3cc221\" tg-width=\"1185\" tg-height=\"527\"/></p><p>市场对于白银的狂热投资情绪，可谓全面凸显出白银作为工业用途类重要金属需求持续激增、美债规模无序扩张导致资金愈发向贵金属转移以及在全球投资者常态资产配置组合中的贵金属权重日益增加。在一些对于白银持有积极看涨立场的分析师们看来，白银作为黄金的“情绪放大器”，有望继续享受比黄金强劲得多的资金涌入规模与涨势，并且押注白银今年剩余时间再度突破100美元以及再创历史新高绝非不可能，并且这种涨到三位数的超级牛市概率仍在不断扩张。</p><p><strong>银价剧烈波动背后的核心逻辑是什么?</strong></p><p>那么，过去一年为什么银价上涨如此猛烈且波动如此剧烈?分析师们普遍表示，银价的近期高位以及近期剧烈波动可以归因于几个非常关键的宏观经济因素，主要包括在美国财政巨额赤字与庞大美债利息支出的大背景之下资金从美元资产的大规模转移、地缘政治紧张局势以及全球经济不确定性，再加上庞大的投机势力蜂拥而至白银市场。</p><p>投资者们通常将黄金、白银和其他贵金属作为对抗通货膨胀率和其他经济不确定性时期的“最经典对冲工具组合”。当市场动荡时，这些投资通常被宣传为“安全避风港”资产，因为它们通常不会像股票和债券那样对经济或者地缘政治冲突升级作出激烈反应，然而随着愈发庞大的避险买盘推动黄金与白银在今年屡创新高，加之在高杠杆对冲基金等投机势力近期强劲推动之下黄金与白银波动率甚至比股票市场还剧烈得多。</p><p>“这不是关于白银，而是关于更广泛的宏观经济和政治环境，”贵金属市场专家、CPM集团的管理合伙人杰弗里·克里斯蒂安(Jeffrey Christian)在一次演讲中说道。</p><p>克里斯蒂安表示，经济学家们越来越担心“AI颠覆一切”导致的劳动力市场愈发疲软、地缘政治危局之下持续的强劲通货膨胀率以及关税和贸易限制对美国乃至全球经济的长期负面影响。</p><p>白银也因其广泛的应用而与其他贵金属资产截然不同。它不仅是对抗宏观经济紧张局势的经典对冲工具，也是几乎每一项前沿技术的关键组成部分，包括太阳能电池板、智能手机、电视、半导体甚至AI数据中心等。</p><p>工业需求叙事被重新定价可谓是这一轮白银价格飙升的最强叙事，正如世界白银协会在最新研究报告中指出的那样：AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼、电气化/新能源(含光伏)转型趋势、全球转向电动汽车的大趋势等，叠加持续的供需缺口，使得白银不再只是“跟着黄金走”;世界白银协会表示，光伏产业的17%年复合增长率、电动汽车产业的13%年复合增长率，以及全球AI数据中心的超过三位数爆发式扩张，共同构成了白银需求增长的三大支柱。</p><p>世界白银协会的在这份报告预计上述的这些行业将在2030年前持续推升工业领域对白银的需求，该协会重点指出，全球数据中心IT功率容量从2000年的0.93吉瓦增长到2025年的近50吉瓦，增长了足足53倍。该协会表示，这种指数级增长意味着全球更大规模的服务器、交换机和冷却系统，每个系统的核心组件都需要白银。</p><p>世界白银协会强调，白银在数据中心的大规模渗透与应用基于三大特性：最高电导率确保服务器电力传输中的能量损耗最小，对于需要99.999%正常运行时间的数据中心而言至关重要;优异热导率帮助设备保持安全温度范围，降低冷却能耗(冷却系统占数据中心总能耗的7-30%);高抗腐蚀性在高电负载和温度波动环境下保护组件。</p><p>然而，对白银的这种日益强劲增长的工业需求也导致了全球白银供应持续短缺。“由于白银实物供应限制、工业用途需求持续强劲以及由于经济不确定性催化投资者对于白银投资兴趣上升，不少华尔街最顶级分析师仍然预测白银价格在今年剩余时间仍将强劲上涨。”来自贵金属IRA公司Birch Gold Group的金融市场策略师彼得·里根(Peter Reagan)表示。</p><p>他补充表示，对于散户投资者们而言，现在是否投资于白银取决于财务目标以及风险承受能力。“白银在历史数据上而言波动性比黄金大得多。”里根表示。“黄金被认为是长期稳定的，而白银由于其工业需求，虽然有更高规格的回报潜力，但也伴随更高级别的风险。”</p><p><strong>“银色狂想曲”迈向新牛市篇章？</strong></p><p>需要注意的是，实物白银与纸白银之间(physical silver与paper silver)有显著区别——即实物贵金属，以及与通过ETF基金份额等方式投资白银现货/期货资产的纸白银。在剧烈波动的贵金属市场中，这两种资产的表现可能会有所不同，取决于投资者情绪以及是否喜欢将实物资产握在手中或者青睐长期储存实物白银。</p><p>“投资者们可以通过实物金条/白银(包括硬币和条状)、ETF或者矿业类股票获得对白银资产的配置。对于大多数投资者来说，ETF提供了最实用的风险敞口方式，”Coral Gables Trust的投资与规划副总裁迈克尔·昂格尔(Michael Unger)表示。</p><p>“白银可以作为有用的通胀对冲工具和投资组合的重要分散与多元化配置工具。然而，白银在一年内已经上涨了两倍多，这增加了短期波动的可能性，”昂格尔表示。“与其试图预测市场的进入时机，投资者们更应该通过逐步分配到更加多元化的投资组合中来应对。”</p><p>一些大宗商品分析师以及华尔街投行提出白银有望冲击甚至再度突破100美元关口，部分机构更激进预测二季度可达新的历史最高位，比如美银、花旗的白银观点显示这种贵金属可能在第二季度向更高区间演进。这种极度乐观的观点通常基于供应持续偏紧、实物库存去化、金银比修复趋势，以及工业需求(特别是清洁能源光伏、汽车电子以及AI数据中心等高端制造领域)显著增长的基本面逻辑。供需持续结构性赤字以及前沿技术领域的愈发火热工业应用需求助力，将在很大程度上支撑白银价格强势上行。</p><p>花旗预计银价将在2026年第二季度再次向高点演进，甚至有望冲击110至150美元区间。来自美国银行的贵金属研究部门负责人 Michael Widmer 给出了极其大胆的区间：135美元至309美元，Widmer表示，基于金银比(Gold-to-Silver Ratio)的历史压缩。美银认为若金价维持在5,000美元附近，且金银比回归1980年的14:1极端水平，白银理论上可达309美元。</p><p>来自BNP Paribas(法国巴黎银行)的资深策略师 Philippe Gijsels认为在美联储降息周期以及市场狂热情绪的强劲推动下，白银涨势将延续至2026年，并且他预计到2026年末白银在100美元/盎司之上“非常有可能”。来自First Majestic的首席执行官Keith Neumeyer自2025年以来，已经多次在采访中公开表达对白银交易价格三位数价格(100美元/盎司以上)的长期判断。</p><p>知名宏观策略师、投资通讯《Lyn Alden投资战略》创始人Lyn Alden近期在VRIC Media的专访中表示，白银在2026年进一步冲击100美元大关的可能性更大，但很可能不再是“低风险高回报”机会。“现在我认为这是一个更对称的高风险交易，如果它徘徊在100美元，或者明年跌到40美元，我都不会感到震惊。”不过这位策略师强调，她正在“降低其未来的投资回报预期”，因为白银“已经兑现了她之前的大部分理论”。</p><p>贵金属制造商及经销商Scottsdale Mint的创始人兼首席执行官Josh Phair在接受采访时表示：“我们正处于一场金属资源争夺战之中。”“美国正在迅速建立AI数据中心，并且美国必须拥有它(白银现货)来保护其在世界上的地位。若将通货膨胀因素考虑在内，白银的价格仍处于低位。”“如果将1980年50美元的银价按通货膨胀率进行调整，其数值已超过200美元。所以，我们甚至可以说，如今的白银价格仍然相当低廉。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“银色狂想曲”再度激昂？供需赤字与工业叙事共振，白银再战100美元大关\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-06 16:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410927.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年以来最疯狂金属——白银的“聚光灯时刻”似乎还未结束，尽管这一贵金属资产在1月30日经历了十多年来最大规模的惨烈跌幅，且一度突破了每盎司超过100美元的史诗级关口。一些大宗商品分析师基于强劲的工业需求、供应长期结构性紧缺和避险资金流入等因素认为银价有望在2026年重新挑战100美元这一心理关口甚至有概率突破每盎司120美元这一历史峰值点位，部分更激进的预测甚至把目标放在更高水平。在过去的一年里，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410927.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26334bf6f4e25ca891e786d2e0bdfb","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","BK4588":"碎股","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410927.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2617883836","content_text":"今年以来最疯狂金属——白银的“聚光灯时刻”似乎还未结束，尽管这一贵金属资产在1月30日经历了十多年来最大规模的惨烈跌幅，且一度突破了每盎司超过100美元的史诗级关口。一些大宗商品分析师基于强劲的工业需求、供应长期结构性紧缺和避险资金流入等因素认为银价有望在2026年重新挑战100美元这一心理关口甚至有概率突破每盎司120美元这一历史峰值点位，部分更激进的预测甚至把目标放在更高水平。在过去的一年里，虽然经历了自1月底创下的历史最高点位121.678美元以来高达30%的回调幅度，但是白银价值仍然上涨两倍多，大幅超过了最大市值规模贵金属黄金的涨幅，并使黄金与白银之间的比率达到了新的低点——即一盎司黄金等于多少盎司白银的金银比例。相比之下，黄金现货价格在过去一年上涨了约90%。当前现货白银价格徘徊在85美元附近，自2月低点以来大幅反弹近20%。一些长期跟踪贵金属的分析师们表示，跟踪黄金价格走势轨迹，以及黄金与白银的比率可以提供白银是否被低估的重要线索。“黄金与白银的比率当前中枢徘徊在48，而长期平均水平约为65，长期低值时为30，”来自Gabelli的黄金基金投资组合经理克里斯·曼奇尼(Chris Mancini)表示。“如果比率降到30的低点，那么在每盎司黄金为5100美元的情况下，白银的价格将是170美元每盎司。”市场对于白银的狂热投资情绪，可谓全面凸显出白银作为工业用途类重要金属需求持续激增、美债规模无序扩张导致资金愈发向贵金属转移以及在全球投资者常态资产配置组合中的贵金属权重日益增加。在一些对于白银持有积极看涨立场的分析师们看来，白银作为黄金的“情绪放大器”，有望继续享受比黄金强劲得多的资金涌入规模与涨势，并且押注白银今年剩余时间再度突破100美元以及再创历史新高绝非不可能，并且这种涨到三位数的超级牛市概率仍在不断扩张。银价剧烈波动背后的核心逻辑是什么?那么，过去一年为什么银价上涨如此猛烈且波动如此剧烈?分析师们普遍表示，银价的近期高位以及近期剧烈波动可以归因于几个非常关键的宏观经济因素，主要包括在美国财政巨额赤字与庞大美债利息支出的大背景之下资金从美元资产的大规模转移、地缘政治紧张局势以及全球经济不确定性，再加上庞大的投机势力蜂拥而至白银市场。投资者们通常将黄金、白银和其他贵金属作为对抗通货膨胀率和其他经济不确定性时期的“最经典对冲工具组合”。当市场动荡时，这些投资通常被宣传为“安全避风港”资产，因为它们通常不会像股票和债券那样对经济或者地缘政治冲突升级作出激烈反应，然而随着愈发庞大的避险买盘推动黄金与白银在今年屡创新高，加之在高杠杆对冲基金等投机势力近期强劲推动之下黄金与白银波动率甚至比股票市场还剧烈得多。“这不是关于白银，而是关于更广泛的宏观经济和政治环境，”贵金属市场专家、CPM集团的管理合伙人杰弗里·克里斯蒂安(Jeffrey Christian)在一次演讲中说道。克里斯蒂安表示，经济学家们越来越担心“AI颠覆一切”导致的劳动力市场愈发疲软、地缘政治危局之下持续的强劲通货膨胀率以及关税和贸易限制对美国乃至全球经济的长期负面影响。白银也因其广泛的应用而与其他贵金属资产截然不同。它不仅是对抗宏观经济紧张局势的经典对冲工具，也是几乎每一项前沿技术的关键组成部分，包括太阳能电池板、智能手机、电视、半导体甚至AI数据中心等。工业需求叙事被重新定价可谓是这一轮白银价格飙升的最强叙事，正如世界白银协会在最新研究报告中指出的那样：AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼、电气化/新能源(含光伏)转型趋势、全球转向电动汽车的大趋势等，叠加持续的供需缺口，使得白银不再只是“跟着黄金走”;世界白银协会表示，光伏产业的17%年复合增长率、电动汽车产业的13%年复合增长率，以及全球AI数据中心的超过三位数爆发式扩张，共同构成了白银需求增长的三大支柱。世界白银协会的在这份报告预计上述的这些行业将在2030年前持续推升工业领域对白银的需求，该协会重点指出，全球数据中心IT功率容量从2000年的0.93吉瓦增长到2025年的近50吉瓦，增长了足足53倍。该协会表示，这种指数级增长意味着全球更大规模的服务器、交换机和冷却系统，每个系统的核心组件都需要白银。世界白银协会强调，白银在数据中心的大规模渗透与应用基于三大特性：最高电导率确保服务器电力传输中的能量损耗最小，对于需要99.999%正常运行时间的数据中心而言至关重要;优异热导率帮助设备保持安全温度范围，降低冷却能耗(冷却系统占数据中心总能耗的7-30%);高抗腐蚀性在高电负载和温度波动环境下保护组件。然而，对白银的这种日益强劲增长的工业需求也导致了全球白银供应持续短缺。“由于白银实物供应限制、工业用途需求持续强劲以及由于经济不确定性催化投资者对于白银投资兴趣上升，不少华尔街最顶级分析师仍然预测白银价格在今年剩余时间仍将强劲上涨。”来自贵金属IRA公司Birch Gold Group的金融市场策略师彼得·里根(Peter Reagan)表示。他补充表示，对于散户投资者们而言，现在是否投资于白银取决于财务目标以及风险承受能力。“白银在历史数据上而言波动性比黄金大得多。”里根表示。“黄金被认为是长期稳定的，而白银由于其工业需求，虽然有更高规格的回报潜力，但也伴随更高级别的风险。”“银色狂想曲”迈向新牛市篇章？需要注意的是，实物白银与纸白银之间(physical silver与paper silver)有显著区别——即实物贵金属，以及与通过ETF基金份额等方式投资白银现货/期货资产的纸白银。在剧烈波动的贵金属市场中，这两种资产的表现可能会有所不同，取决于投资者情绪以及是否喜欢将实物资产握在手中或者青睐长期储存实物白银。“投资者们可以通过实物金条/白银(包括硬币和条状)、ETF或者矿业类股票获得对白银资产的配置。对于大多数投资者来说，ETF提供了最实用的风险敞口方式，”Coral Gables Trust的投资与规划副总裁迈克尔·昂格尔(Michael Unger)表示。“白银可以作为有用的通胀对冲工具和投资组合的重要分散与多元化配置工具。然而，白银在一年内已经上涨了两倍多，这增加了短期波动的可能性，”昂格尔表示。“与其试图预测市场的进入时机，投资者们更应该通过逐步分配到更加多元化的投资组合中来应对。”一些大宗商品分析师以及华尔街投行提出白银有望冲击甚至再度突破100美元关口，部分机构更激进预测二季度可达新的历史最高位，比如美银、花旗的白银观点显示这种贵金属可能在第二季度向更高区间演进。这种极度乐观的观点通常基于供应持续偏紧、实物库存去化、金银比修复趋势，以及工业需求(特别是清洁能源光伏、汽车电子以及AI数据中心等高端制造领域)显著增长的基本面逻辑。供需持续结构性赤字以及前沿技术领域的愈发火热工业应用需求助力，将在很大程度上支撑白银价格强势上行。花旗预计银价将在2026年第二季度再次向高点演进，甚至有望冲击110至150美元区间。来自美国银行的贵金属研究部门负责人 Michael Widmer 给出了极其大胆的区间：135美元至309美元，Widmer表示，基于金银比(Gold-to-Silver Ratio)的历史压缩。美银认为若金价维持在5,000美元附近，且金银比回归1980年的14:1极端水平，白银理论上可达309美元。来自BNP Paribas(法国巴黎银行)的资深策略师 Philippe Gijsels认为在美联储降息周期以及市场狂热情绪的强劲推动下，白银涨势将延续至2026年，并且他预计到2026年末白银在100美元/盎司之上“非常有可能”。来自First Majestic的首席执行官Keith Neumeyer自2025年以来，已经多次在采访中公开表达对白银交易价格三位数价格(100美元/盎司以上)的长期判断。知名宏观策略师、投资通讯《Lyn Alden投资战略》创始人Lyn Alden近期在VRIC Media的专访中表示，白银在2026年进一步冲击100美元大关的可能性更大，但很可能不再是“低风险高回报”机会。“现在我认为这是一个更对称的高风险交易，如果它徘徊在100美元，或者明年跌到40美元，我都不会感到震惊。”不过这位策略师强调，她正在“降低其未来的投资回报预期”，因为白银“已经兑现了她之前的大部分理论”。贵金属制造商及经销商Scottsdale Mint的创始人兼首席执行官Josh Phair在接受采访时表示：“我们正处于一场金属资源争夺战之中。”“美国正在迅速建立AI数据中心，并且美国必须拥有它(白银现货)来保护其在世界上的地位。若将通货膨胀因素考虑在内，白银的价格仍处于低位。”“如果将1980年50美元的银价按通货膨胀率进行调整，其数值已超过200美元。所以，我们甚至可以说，如今的白银价格仍然相当低廉。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":2,"HTImain":2,"HSImain":2,"HSI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539808908461120,"gmtCreate":1772807354078,"gmtModify":1772807356252,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"等待市场反弹调仓","listText":"等待市场反弹调仓","text":"等待市场反弹调仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539808908461120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539808700691672,"gmtCreate":1772807308244,"gmtModify":1772807310069,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强][强][强]","listText":"[强][强][强]","text":"[强][强][强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539808700691672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":539110918141296,"gmtCreate":1772639765936,"gmtModify":1772639768148,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$</a> 出了，看到市盈率都100多了，还是小心一点比较好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$</a> 出了，看到市盈率都100多了，还是小心一点比较好","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 出了，看到市盈率都100多了，还是小心一点比较好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539110918141296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000627","authorId":"9000000000000627","name":"DominicBeck","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000627","idStr":"9000000000000627"},"content":"市盈率这么高，我也赶紧撤了。","text":"市盈率这么高，我也赶紧撤了。","html":"市盈率这么高，我也赶紧撤了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539117610669712,"gmtCreate":1772639599238,"gmtModify":1772639601356,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强][强][强]","listText":"[强][强][强]","text":"[强][强][强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539117610669712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":537372750144888,"gmtCreate":1772215408563,"gmtModify":1772215411121,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537372750144888","repostId":"2614351001","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614351001","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1772163786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614351001?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 11:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"不仅全员失业，资本主义也将终结？德银重磅推演AI发展两种终局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614351001","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"当AI实现完全自动化，“资本”将等同于“劳动力”，劳动价值趋零，传统经济学基础面临崩塌。德银推演两大终局：若AI彻底替代人类，财富将高度集中，东西很多却没人买得起，经济走向通缩、低利率、高利润但股市动荡；若AI只是赋能工具，就业与需求仍能修复，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>当AI实现完全自动化，“资本”将等同于“劳动力”，劳动价值趋零，传统经济学基础面临崩塌。德银推演两大终局：若AI彻底替代人类，财富将高度集中，东西很多却没人买得起，经济走向通缩、低利率、高利润但股市动荡；若AI只是赋能工具，就业与需求仍能修复，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当讨论AI时，绝大多数人还在纠结“工作会不会被抢走”。但德银认为，这个视角或许有点狭窄了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，德银外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos撰写的最新报告，推演了AI发展的两个极端终局：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一种结局是“彻底替代”</strong>。如同180多年前马克思的预言与如今马斯克的愿景：在经济学的生产要素中，“资本”本身变成了“劳动力”本身，劳动价值归零，资本主义将变得过时。AI大规模取代人类工作，财富和收入高度集中在少数资本所有者手中，普通人的收入和需求被削弱，经济陷入“东西很多、但没人买得起”的困境。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">马克思预测了人工智能吗？大约200年前，他写了一部关于“机器”的著作，构想了全面自动化的场景。在这个世界里，稀缺性问题得到了解决。但是，随着劳动力价值降至零，<strong>资本主义将变得过时</strong>，我们将过渡到一个物质极大丰富的全新世界。马克思构想的终点，与如今埃隆·马斯克的愿景出奇地相似。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二种结局则是“历史重演”</strong>。AI像以往技术革命一样提高效率，却没有彻底取代人类劳动，仅仅是“赋能”人类，新的工作不断出现，政策体系仍能修补冲击。在这种情况下，经济运行逻辑与过去几十年相似，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">我们究竟会走向深渊、极乐世界，还是仅仅迎来一次普通的产业升级？德银这篇报告为我们提供了一个全新的视角。</p><h2 id=\"id_3433403342\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当“资本变成劳动”，为什么说传统经济学可能失效</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">要理解AI对经济的终极破坏力，必须回到现代经济学的起点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）开始，所有古典经济学家都基于一个最基本的假设：资本和劳动是两个完全独立的生产要素。无论是资本还是劳动，其价格（利率和工资）都是由它们在市场上的“相对稀缺性”决定的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回顾过去两百年的历史，以前所有的技术创新浪潮，都基本符合这个模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">类比来看，蒸汽机的发明淘汰了马车夫，但创造了火车司机；互联网摧毁了传统纸媒，但创造了无数程序员和外卖员。<strong>在这些历史周期中，劳动力永远有事情可做。机器是资本，而操作机器、维护机器、设计机器的依然是劳动。资本只是劳动的“补充”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但拥有通用人工智能（AGI）的全自动机器人完全打破了这一分类。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>“在这种情况下，资本变成了劳动。它不再是劳动的补充，而是替代品。”</strong>George Saravelos在报告中一针见血地指出。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>当一台AI机器可以完全自主思考、自主生产、自主迭代时，这台机器既是资本，也是劳动力。</strong>现代经济学的基础结构在此刻断裂。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告直言：<strong>“当资本等于劳动时，工作的价值就会降至零，工资也会降至零。经济学家称之为不可接受的均衡。科学家称之为奇点。古典经济学理论崩溃了。随之而来的，是资本主义作为一种制度也将变得过时。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1937589126\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当“供给创造需求”定律失效，增长或面临“长期停滞”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一旦劳动力被大规模替代，宏观经济的运转齿轮将发生怎样的异变？德银引入了更深层次的理论推演。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一个纯粹的“AI替代工人”的世界里，工资下降，但物质的丰富度空前增加。机器不知疲倦地为市场生产海量的商品和服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按照萨伊（Say）、瓦尔拉斯（Walras）和维克塞尔（Wicksell）等古典经济学派的观点，<strong>“供给会自动创造其自身的需求”。</strong>在他们的理论模型中，市场具备自我修复能力。商品价格会随着生产成本的降低而下降，工人最终可以用更少的钱买到更多东西，或者在新的领域找到工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，<strong>德银警告，在AI全自动化的世界里，这种自我修正机制将彻底失效。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">逻辑非常直白：自动化会将财富和收入极度集中在一个狭小的“资本所有者”阶层手中。而在经济学规律中，富人（资本所有者）的“边际消费倾向”远低于普通劳动者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">打个比方：AI工厂一天能生产一万辆汽车，成本极低。但这部分利润全归AI所有者。这位所有者不可能一个人买下一万辆汽车；而大量失去工作、收入归零的普通人，即使汽车再便宜也无力购买。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>“从供给到需求的传导链条断裂了。”</strong>Saravelos写道。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种市场完全出清的均衡状态，将表现为：结构性极低的劳动收入、通货紧缩的价格水平，以及海量的“超额储蓄”取代了强劲的商品需求。德银指出，这正是经济学家埃格特森（Eggertsson）和梅赫罗特拉（Mehrotra）提出的“长期停滞（secular stagnation）”景象，并在极端情况下，可能引发马克思主义式的革命。</p><h2 id=\"28bc7b67\">“凯恩斯能救场，但未必够”，关键看政府与制度反应速度</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场的失灵，现代经济学的另一大支柱——凯恩斯主义（Keynesianism）能否力挽狂澜？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">凯恩斯的革命性在于承认了古典理论的失败。在凯恩斯主义的框架下，经济失调不是永久的，而是周期性的。当价格调整缓慢、劳动力重新培训跟不上时，政府必须强力介入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI时代，这种干预可能表现为：对AI企业征收高额“AI税”，以此为资金池，向全民发放“刺激支票”或全民基本收入（UBI）。通过这种强力的财政转移支付，经济最终达成新的平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但这套逻辑面临巨大的现实约束。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告引用了知名经济学家阿西莫格鲁（Acemoglu）和约翰逊（Johnson）对技术部署历史的广泛研究。历史证明，政策和制度的调整往往极其缓慢。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">例如，在英国工业革命早期，由于缺乏相应的制度保护，工人的实际工资被压制了长达数十年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了防止生活水平的倒退，德银列出了必须进行的体制改革清单：“更强大的劳动力谈判机构、限制主导企业垄断的竞争政策、不人为偏袒资本而轻视劳动力的税收和补贴结构、对技能和创造任务的技术进行公共投资，以及扩大乃至改革公司治理。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果技术变革的速度快于政府和机构的适应速度，凯恩斯主义的药方将无法及时生效。</p><h2 id=\"id_2061384871\" style=\"text-align: left;\">从马克思到马斯克：产权与稀缺性的终结</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便存在一个高度积极、反应迅速的政府，更深层次的政治经济学挑战依然存在。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告提出了一个极具哲学意味的现象：近200年前卡尔·马克思在书中关于“机器”和全自动化的构想，与今天科技巨头埃隆·马斯克对AI的终极愿景，惊人地相似。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这个全自动化的终局里，人类解决了自古以来的终极难题——“稀缺性（Scarcity）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但随之而来的是社会基础共识的解体。“在这个全面自动化的场景下，资本主义的本质崩溃了。政治问题不再围绕如何补贴工资展开。它们变得对社会结构更具基础性：如果稀缺性被解决，产权的意义是什么？”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如凯恩斯在1930年那篇著名的文章《我们后代在经济上的可能前景》中所追问的那样：当人类不再需要为了生存而劳动，人类存在的意义究竟是什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">虽然这些话题看似宏大，但德银强调，鉴于这些问题的生存性质，它们绝对与当前的金融市场定价息息相关。</p><h2 id=\"id_1184552321\" style=\"text-align: left;\">德银两大终局推演与定价逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，必须同时思考“通往终局的过渡期”和“终局本身”。德银将未来的世界划分为两个极端的平行宇宙，并给出了清晰的资产定价逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>终局一：AI彻底替代劳动（走向极端的颠覆）</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是AI能够快速且（几乎）完全取代人类劳动力的世界。从生活水平来看，这是经济稀缺性问题被永久解决的极乐世界。但德银警告，到达那里的道路将“最具破坏性且充满不确定性”。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>宏观经济特征</strong>：失业率不断上升，政府面临持续的干预压力，社会冲突加剧。资本所有者与劳动力之间将围绕资源分配展开无休止的博弈。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场定价逻辑</strong>：宏观经济将面临极强的通货紧缩（Disinflationary）压力，实际利率将出现结构性的持续走低。由于AI的极高效率，企业盈利能力将飙升。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市与汇市表现</strong>：尽管利润飙升，但<strong>股票市场将陷入长期的迷茫与波动</strong>。逻辑在于：企业面临的“被没收风险（如极端高额税收或国有化）”将大幅上升，不同利益相关者之间如何分配利润将始终悬而未决。而在外汇市场，德银明确指出：“那些能够最成功管理这种平稳过渡的国家，其货币最有可能获得最大收益。”</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>终局二：AI仅仅是赋能技术（历史的重演）</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这个世界里，AI并未引发奇点，而是像20世纪的历次创新一样，仅仅作为一种增强人类能力的技术（Augmentation technology）。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>宏观经济特征</strong>：这是一个具有连贯性的世界。技术采用的局限性、渐进的制度演变，以及凯恩斯主义的逆周期财政政策，将有效发挥作用。尽管分配冲突和劳动力市场的阵痛依然存在，但人类总能找到新的工作。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场定价逻辑</strong>：与第一种终局完全相反，这里的宏观指标将指向上行。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市与汇市表现</strong>：通胀水平、实际利率以及<strong>股票市场，都更有可能朝着更高的方向发展</strong>。德银总结道：“历史将押上韵脚，而不是断裂，就像过去几十年一样。”</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3551525903\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当前应该看什么？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银指出，这份报告的目的不是给出一个绝对的预测，而是建立一个分析框架。在这个分布极其宽泛的结果中，市场关于AI宏观影响的辩论短期内绝对不会停止。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">站在投资者的角度，现在该如何观测AI经济体演变的进度条？德银提炼出了明确的“观测路标”：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>劳动力数据的质变</strong>：我们是否开始观察到结构性失业率的上升？本就不断下降的劳动报酬份额，是否进入了加速向下俯冲的轨道？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>财政与反垄断政策的转向</strong>：政府有多大意愿采取主动的财政和制度政策？是否开始强力实施收入再分配？是否对垄断集中的资本财团（科技巨头）采取了实质性的反垄断预防措施？</p></li></ol></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不仅全员失业，资本主义也将终结？德银重磅推演AI发展两种终局</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不仅全员失业，资本主义也将终结？德银重磅推演AI发展两种终局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-27 11:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>当AI实现完全自动化，“资本”将等同于“劳动力”，劳动价值趋零，传统经济学基础面临崩塌。德银推演两大终局：若AI彻底替代人类，财富将高度集中，东西很多却没人买得起，经济走向通缩、低利率、高利润但股市动荡；若AI只是赋能工具，就业与需求仍能修复，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当讨论AI时，绝大多数人还在纠结“工作会不会被抢走”。但德银认为，这个视角或许有点狭窄了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台，德银外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos撰写的最新报告，推演了AI发展的两个极端终局：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一种结局是“彻底替代”</strong>。如同180多年前马克思的预言与如今马斯克的愿景：在经济学的生产要素中，“资本”本身变成了“劳动力”本身，劳动价值归零，资本主义将变得过时。AI大规模取代人类工作，财富和收入高度集中在少数资本所有者手中，普通人的收入和需求被削弱，经济陷入“东西很多、但没人买得起”的困境。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">马克思预测了人工智能吗？大约200年前，他写了一部关于“机器”的著作，构想了全面自动化的场景。在这个世界里，稀缺性问题得到了解决。但是，随着劳动力价值降至零，<strong>资本主义将变得过时</strong>，我们将过渡到一个物质极大丰富的全新世界。马克思构想的终点，与如今埃隆·马斯克的愿景出奇地相似。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二种结局则是“历史重演”</strong>。AI像以往技术革命一样提高效率，却没有彻底取代人类劳动，仅仅是“赋能”人类，新的工作不断出现，政策体系仍能修补冲击。在这种情况下，经济运行逻辑与过去几十年相似，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">我们究竟会走向深渊、极乐世界，还是仅仅迎来一次普通的产业升级？德银这篇报告为我们提供了一个全新的视角。</p><h2 id=\"id_3433403342\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当“资本变成劳动”，为什么说传统经济学可能失效</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">要理解AI对经济的终极破坏力，必须回到现代经济学的起点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）开始，所有古典经济学家都基于一个最基本的假设：资本和劳动是两个完全独立的生产要素。无论是资本还是劳动，其价格（利率和工资）都是由它们在市场上的“相对稀缺性”决定的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">回顾过去两百年的历史，以前所有的技术创新浪潮，都基本符合这个模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">类比来看，蒸汽机的发明淘汰了马车夫，但创造了火车司机；互联网摧毁了传统纸媒，但创造了无数程序员和外卖员。<strong>在这些历史周期中，劳动力永远有事情可做。机器是资本，而操作机器、维护机器、设计机器的依然是劳动。资本只是劳动的“补充”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但拥有通用人工智能（AGI）的全自动机器人完全打破了这一分类。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>“在这种情况下，资本变成了劳动。它不再是劳动的补充，而是替代品。”</strong>George Saravelos在报告中一针见血地指出。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>当一台AI机器可以完全自主思考、自主生产、自主迭代时，这台机器既是资本，也是劳动力。</strong>现代经济学的基础结构在此刻断裂。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告直言：<strong>“当资本等于劳动时，工作的价值就会降至零，工资也会降至零。经济学家称之为不可接受的均衡。科学家称之为奇点。古典经济学理论崩溃了。随之而来的，是资本主义作为一种制度也将变得过时。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1937589126\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当“供给创造需求”定律失效，增长或面临“长期停滞”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一旦劳动力被大规模替代，宏观经济的运转齿轮将发生怎样的异变？德银引入了更深层次的理论推演。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一个纯粹的“AI替代工人”的世界里，工资下降，但物质的丰富度空前增加。机器不知疲倦地为市场生产海量的商品和服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按照萨伊（Say）、瓦尔拉斯（Walras）和维克塞尔（Wicksell）等古典经济学派的观点，<strong>“供给会自动创造其自身的需求”。</strong>在他们的理论模型中，市场具备自我修复能力。商品价格会随着生产成本的降低而下降，工人最终可以用更少的钱买到更多东西，或者在新的领域找到工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，<strong>德银警告，在AI全自动化的世界里，这种自我修正机制将彻底失效。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">逻辑非常直白：自动化会将财富和收入极度集中在一个狭小的“资本所有者”阶层手中。而在经济学规律中，富人（资本所有者）的“边际消费倾向”远低于普通劳动者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">打个比方：AI工厂一天能生产一万辆汽车，成本极低。但这部分利润全归AI所有者。这位所有者不可能一个人买下一万辆汽车；而大量失去工作、收入归零的普通人，即使汽车再便宜也无力购买。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>“从供给到需求的传导链条断裂了。”</strong>Saravelos写道。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种市场完全出清的均衡状态，将表现为：结构性极低的劳动收入、通货紧缩的价格水平，以及海量的“超额储蓄”取代了强劲的商品需求。德银指出，这正是经济学家埃格特森（Eggertsson）和梅赫罗特拉（Mehrotra）提出的“长期停滞（secular stagnation）”景象，并在极端情况下，可能引发马克思主义式的革命。</p><h2 id=\"28bc7b67\">“凯恩斯能救场，但未必够”，关键看政府与制度反应速度</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场的失灵，现代经济学的另一大支柱——凯恩斯主义（Keynesianism）能否力挽狂澜？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">凯恩斯的革命性在于承认了古典理论的失败。在凯恩斯主义的框架下，经济失调不是永久的，而是周期性的。当价格调整缓慢、劳动力重新培训跟不上时，政府必须强力介入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI时代，这种干预可能表现为：对AI企业征收高额“AI税”，以此为资金池，向全民发放“刺激支票”或全民基本收入（UBI）。通过这种强力的财政转移支付，经济最终达成新的平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但这套逻辑面临巨大的现实约束。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告引用了知名经济学家阿西莫格鲁（Acemoglu）和约翰逊（Johnson）对技术部署历史的广泛研究。历史证明，政策和制度的调整往往极其缓慢。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">例如，在英国工业革命早期，由于缺乏相应的制度保护，工人的实际工资被压制了长达数十年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了防止生活水平的倒退，德银列出了必须进行的体制改革清单：“更强大的劳动力谈判机构、限制主导企业垄断的竞争政策、不人为偏袒资本而轻视劳动力的税收和补贴结构、对技能和创造任务的技术进行公共投资，以及扩大乃至改革公司治理。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果技术变革的速度快于政府和机构的适应速度，凯恩斯主义的药方将无法及时生效。</p><h2 id=\"id_2061384871\" style=\"text-align: left;\">从马克思到马斯克：产权与稀缺性的终结</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便存在一个高度积极、反应迅速的政府，更深层次的政治经济学挑战依然存在。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告提出了一个极具哲学意味的现象：近200年前卡尔·马克思在书中关于“机器”和全自动化的构想，与今天科技巨头埃隆·马斯克对AI的终极愿景，惊人地相似。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这个全自动化的终局里，人类解决了自古以来的终极难题——“稀缺性（Scarcity）”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但随之而来的是社会基础共识的解体。“在这个全面自动化的场景下，资本主义的本质崩溃了。政治问题不再围绕如何补贴工资展开。它们变得对社会结构更具基础性：如果稀缺性被解决，产权的意义是什么？”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正如凯恩斯在1930年那篇著名的文章《我们后代在经济上的可能前景》中所追问的那样：当人类不再需要为了生存而劳动，人类存在的意义究竟是什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">虽然这些话题看似宏大，但德银强调，鉴于这些问题的生存性质，它们绝对与当前的金融市场定价息息相关。</p><h2 id=\"id_1184552321\" style=\"text-align: left;\">德银两大终局推演与定价逻辑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，必须同时思考“通往终局的过渡期”和“终局本身”。德银将未来的世界划分为两个极端的平行宇宙，并给出了清晰的资产定价逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>终局一：AI彻底替代劳动（走向极端的颠覆）</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是AI能够快速且（几乎）完全取代人类劳动力的世界。从生活水平来看，这是经济稀缺性问题被永久解决的极乐世界。但德银警告，到达那里的道路将“最具破坏性且充满不确定性”。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>宏观经济特征</strong>：失业率不断上升，政府面临持续的干预压力，社会冲突加剧。资本所有者与劳动力之间将围绕资源分配展开无休止的博弈。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场定价逻辑</strong>：宏观经济将面临极强的通货紧缩（Disinflationary）压力，实际利率将出现结构性的持续走低。由于AI的极高效率，企业盈利能力将飙升。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市与汇市表现</strong>：尽管利润飙升，但<strong>股票市场将陷入长期的迷茫与波动</strong>。逻辑在于：企业面临的“被没收风险（如极端高额税收或国有化）”将大幅上升，不同利益相关者之间如何分配利润将始终悬而未决。而在外汇市场，德银明确指出：“那些能够最成功管理这种平稳过渡的国家，其货币最有可能获得最大收益。”</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>终局二：AI仅仅是赋能技术（历史的重演）</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这个世界里，AI并未引发奇点，而是像20世纪的历次创新一样，仅仅作为一种增强人类能力的技术（Augmentation technology）。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>宏观经济特征</strong>：这是一个具有连贯性的世界。技术采用的局限性、渐进的制度演变，以及凯恩斯主义的逆周期财政政策，将有效发挥作用。尽管分配冲突和劳动力市场的阵痛依然存在，但人类总能找到新的工作。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场定价逻辑</strong>：与第一种终局完全相反，这里的宏观指标将指向上行。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>股市与汇市表现</strong>：通胀水平、实际利率以及<strong>股票市场，都更有可能朝着更高的方向发展</strong>。德银总结道：“历史将押上韵脚，而不是断裂，就像过去几十年一样。”</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3551525903\" style=\"text-align: left;\">当前应该看什么？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银指出，这份报告的目的不是给出一个绝对的预测，而是建立一个分析框架。在这个分布极其宽泛的结果中，市场关于AI宏观影响的辩论短期内绝对不会停止。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">站在投资者的角度，现在该如何观测AI经济体演变的进度条？德银提炼出了明确的“观测路标”：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>劳动力数据的质变</strong>：我们是否开始观察到结构性失业率的上升？本就不断下降的劳动报酬份额，是否进入了加速向下俯冲的轨道？</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>财政与反垄断政策的转向</strong>：政府有多大意愿采取主动的财政和制度政策？是否开始强力实施收入再分配？是否对垄断集中的资本财团（科技巨头）采取了实质性的反垄断预防措施？</p></li></ol></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"LU0496367417.USD":"富兰克林黄金和贵金属A（acc）","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4017":"黄金","LU0498741114.HKD":"FRANKLIN GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS \"A\" (HKD) ACC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4543":"AI","LU0055631609.USD":"贝莱德世界黄金基金A2","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","LU0368265764.SGD":"Blackrock World Gold Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU0498741890.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Gold and Precious Metals A (acc) SGD","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766318","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2614351001","content_text":"当AI实现完全自动化，“资本”将等同于“劳动力”，劳动价值趋零，传统经济学基础面临崩塌。德银推演两大终局：若AI彻底替代人类，财富将高度集中，东西很多却没人买得起，经济走向通缩、低利率、高利润但股市动荡；若AI只是赋能工具，就业与需求仍能修复，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。当讨论AI时，绝大多数人还在纠结“工作会不会被抢走”。但德银认为，这个视角或许有点狭窄了。据追风交易台，德银外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos撰写的最新报告，推演了AI发展的两个极端终局：第一种结局是“彻底替代”。如同180多年前马克思的预言与如今马斯克的愿景：在经济学的生产要素中，“资本”本身变成了“劳动力”本身，劳动价值归零，资本主义将变得过时。AI大规模取代人类工作，财富和收入高度集中在少数资本所有者手中，普通人的收入和需求被削弱，经济陷入“东西很多、但没人买得起”的困境。马克思预测了人工智能吗？大约200年前，他写了一部关于“机器”的著作，构想了全面自动化的场景。在这个世界里，稀缺性问题得到了解决。但是，随着劳动力价值降至零，资本主义将变得过时，我们将过渡到一个物质极大丰富的全新世界。马克思构想的终点，与如今埃隆·马斯克的愿景出奇地相似。第二种结局则是“历史重演”。AI像以往技术革命一样提高效率，却没有彻底取代人类劳动，仅仅是“赋能”人类，新的工作不断出现，政策体系仍能修补冲击。在这种情况下，经济运行逻辑与过去几十年相似，通胀、利率和股市更可能温和上行。我们究竟会走向深渊、极乐世界，还是仅仅迎来一次普通的产业升级？德银这篇报告为我们提供了一个全新的视角。当“资本变成劳动”，为什么说传统经济学可能失效要理解AI对经济的终极破坏力，必须回到现代经济学的起点。从亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）开始，所有古典经济学家都基于一个最基本的假设：资本和劳动是两个完全独立的生产要素。无论是资本还是劳动，其价格（利率和工资）都是由它们在市场上的“相对稀缺性”决定的。回顾过去两百年的历史，以前所有的技术创新浪潮，都基本符合这个模型。类比来看，蒸汽机的发明淘汰了马车夫，但创造了火车司机；互联网摧毁了传统纸媒，但创造了无数程序员和外卖员。在这些历史周期中，劳动力永远有事情可做。机器是资本，而操作机器、维护机器、设计机器的依然是劳动。资本只是劳动的“补充”。但拥有通用人工智能（AGI）的全自动机器人完全打破了这一分类。“在这种情况下，资本变成了劳动。它不再是劳动的补充，而是替代品。”George Saravelos在报告中一针见血地指出。当一台AI机器可以完全自主思考、自主生产、自主迭代时，这台机器既是资本，也是劳动力。现代经济学的基础结构在此刻断裂。报告直言：“当资本等于劳动时，工作的价值就会降至零，工资也会降至零。经济学家称之为不可接受的均衡。科学家称之为奇点。古典经济学理论崩溃了。随之而来的，是资本主义作为一种制度也将变得过时。”当“供给创造需求”定律失效，增长或面临“长期停滞”一旦劳动力被大规模替代，宏观经济的运转齿轮将发生怎样的异变？德银引入了更深层次的理论推演。在一个纯粹的“AI替代工人”的世界里，工资下降，但物质的丰富度空前增加。机器不知疲倦地为市场生产海量的商品和服务。按照萨伊（Say）、瓦尔拉斯（Walras）和维克塞尔（Wicksell）等古典经济学派的观点，“供给会自动创造其自身的需求”。在他们的理论模型中，市场具备自我修复能力。商品价格会随着生产成本的降低而下降，工人最终可以用更少的钱买到更多东西，或者在新的领域找到工作。然而，德银警告，在AI全自动化的世界里，这种自我修正机制将彻底失效。逻辑非常直白：自动化会将财富和收入极度集中在一个狭小的“资本所有者”阶层手中。而在经济学规律中，富人（资本所有者）的“边际消费倾向”远低于普通劳动者。打个比方：AI工厂一天能生产一万辆汽车，成本极低。但这部分利润全归AI所有者。这位所有者不可能一个人买下一万辆汽车；而大量失去工作、收入归零的普通人，即使汽车再便宜也无力购买。“从供给到需求的传导链条断裂了。”Saravelos写道。这种市场完全出清的均衡状态，将表现为：结构性极低的劳动收入、通货紧缩的价格水平，以及海量的“超额储蓄”取代了强劲的商品需求。德银指出，这正是经济学家埃格特森（Eggertsson）和梅赫罗特拉（Mehrotra）提出的“长期停滞（secular stagnation）”景象，并在极端情况下，可能引发马克思主义式的革命。“凯恩斯能救场，但未必够”，关键看政府与制度反应速度面对市场的失灵，现代经济学的另一大支柱——凯恩斯主义（Keynesianism）能否力挽狂澜？凯恩斯的革命性在于承认了古典理论的失败。在凯恩斯主义的框架下，经济失调不是永久的，而是周期性的。当价格调整缓慢、劳动力重新培训跟不上时，政府必须强力介入。在AI时代，这种干预可能表现为：对AI企业征收高额“AI税”，以此为资金池，向全民发放“刺激支票”或全民基本收入（UBI）。通过这种强力的财政转移支付，经济最终达成新的平衡。但这套逻辑面临巨大的现实约束。报告引用了知名经济学家阿西莫格鲁（Acemoglu）和约翰逊（Johnson）对技术部署历史的广泛研究。历史证明，政策和制度的调整往往极其缓慢。例如，在英国工业革命早期，由于缺乏相应的制度保护，工人的实际工资被压制了长达数十年。为了防止生活水平的倒退，德银列出了必须进行的体制改革清单：“更强大的劳动力谈判机构、限制主导企业垄断的竞争政策、不人为偏袒资本而轻视劳动力的税收和补贴结构、对技能和创造任务的技术进行公共投资，以及扩大乃至改革公司治理。”如果技术变革的速度快于政府和机构的适应速度，凯恩斯主义的药方将无法及时生效。从马克思到马斯克：产权与稀缺性的终结即便存在一个高度积极、反应迅速的政府，更深层次的政治经济学挑战依然存在。报告提出了一个极具哲学意味的现象：近200年前卡尔·马克思在书中关于“机器”和全自动化的构想，与今天科技巨头埃隆·马斯克对AI的终极愿景，惊人地相似。在这个全自动化的终局里，人类解决了自古以来的终极难题——“稀缺性（Scarcity）”。但随之而来的是社会基础共识的解体。“在这个全面自动化的场景下，资本主义的本质崩溃了。政治问题不再围绕如何补贴工资展开。它们变得对社会结构更具基础性：如果稀缺性被解决，产权的意义是什么？”正如凯恩斯在1930年那篇著名的文章《我们后代在经济上的可能前景》中所追问的那样：当人类不再需要为了生存而劳动，人类存在的意义究竟是什么？虽然这些话题看似宏大，但德银强调，鉴于这些问题的生存性质，它们绝对与当前的金融市场定价息息相关。德银两大终局推演与定价逻辑对于市场而言，必须同时思考“通往终局的过渡期”和“终局本身”。德银将未来的世界划分为两个极端的平行宇宙，并给出了清晰的资产定价逻辑。终局一：AI彻底替代劳动（走向极端的颠覆）这是AI能够快速且（几乎）完全取代人类劳动力的世界。从生活水平来看，这是经济稀缺性问题被永久解决的极乐世界。但德银警告，到达那里的道路将“最具破坏性且充满不确定性”。宏观经济特征：失业率不断上升，政府面临持续的干预压力，社会冲突加剧。资本所有者与劳动力之间将围绕资源分配展开无休止的博弈。市场定价逻辑：宏观经济将面临极强的通货紧缩（Disinflationary）压力，实际利率将出现结构性的持续走低。由于AI的极高效率，企业盈利能力将飙升。股市与汇市表现：尽管利润飙升，但股票市场将陷入长期的迷茫与波动。逻辑在于：企业面临的“被没收风险（如极端高额税收或国有化）”将大幅上升，不同利益相关者之间如何分配利润将始终悬而未决。而在外汇市场，德银明确指出：“那些能够最成功管理这种平稳过渡的国家，其货币最有可能获得最大收益。”终局二：AI仅仅是赋能技术（历史的重演）在这个世界里，AI并未引发奇点，而是像20世纪的历次创新一样，仅仅作为一种增强人类能力的技术（Augmentation technology）。宏观经济特征：这是一个具有连贯性的世界。技术采用的局限性、渐进的制度演变，以及凯恩斯主义的逆周期财政政策，将有效发挥作用。尽管分配冲突和劳动力市场的阵痛依然存在，但人类总能找到新的工作。市场定价逻辑：与第一种终局完全相反，这里的宏观指标将指向上行。股市与汇市表现：通胀水平、实际利率以及股票市场，都更有可能朝着更高的方向发展。德银总结道：“历史将押上韵脚，而不是断裂，就像过去几十年一样。”当前应该看什么？德银指出，这份报告的目的不是给出一个绝对的预测，而是建立一个分析框架。在这个分布极其宽泛的结果中，市场关于AI宏观影响的辩论短期内绝对不会停止。站在投资者的角度，现在该如何观测AI经济体演变的进度条？德银提炼出了明确的“观测路标”：劳动力数据的质变：我们是否开始观察到结构性失业率的上升？本就不断下降的劳动报酬份额，是否进入了加速向下俯冲的轨道？财政与反垄断政策的转向：政府有多大意愿采取主动的财政和制度政策？是否开始强力实施收入再分配？是否对垄断集中的资本财团（科技巨头）采取了实质性的反垄断预防措施？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,".DJI":2,"NDX":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":537311239308632,"gmtCreate":1772200499596,"gmtModify":1772200502367,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"总结太到位了👍","listText":"总结太到位了👍","text":"总结太到位了👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537311239308632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":525960115691856,"gmtCreate":1769433196677,"gmtModify":1769433198800,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强][强][强]","listText":"[强][强][强]","text":"[强][强][强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525960115691856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":519920198349512,"gmtCreate":1767917601939,"gmtModify":1767917604688,"author":{"id":"3468529827816752","authorId":"3468529827816752","name":"盲人摸大象","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb02d1b702bab9b5f01bc747be51aef1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3468529827816752","idStr":"3468529827816752"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519920198349512","repostId":"2602316388","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2602316388","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767911450,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602316388?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-09 06:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成：七家中国企业成核心供应商？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602316388","media":"具身智机产业链","summary":"近期，关于Optimus V3量产审核完成、七家中国企业确定为核心一级供应商的消息引发行业震动。蓝思科技凭借在精密制造与整机组装领域的积累，将承担Optimus V3的整机组装任务，并供应3D玻璃面罩、灵巧手夹爪模组等核心部件，其灵巧手相关产品市占率已超70%，成为该环节的核心保障。特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成与中国核心供应链的确定，标志着全球人形机器人产业从技术研发阶段正式迈向量产落地阶段。","content":"<html><body><article><p>近期，关于Optimus V3量产审核完成、七家中国企业确定为核心一级供应商的消息引发行业震动。这7家公司分别为：<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300433\">蓝思科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002050\">三花智控</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601689\">拓普集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300115\">长盈精密</a>、卧龙电驱、五洲新春、</strong>恒立液压。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063728231v152jszlq8aabdi\"/><p><strong>尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>官方尚未对这一具体供应链名单进行最终确认，但中国供应链深度参与已是公开的秘密。</strong>以下提到的这几家公司，各自凭借其核心技术，在机器人产业链中占据了各自的关键环节：</p><p><strong>蓝思科技</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063729044v1522gz3acxov68\"/><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06613\">蓝思科技</a>是以科技创新为核心、智能智造为驱动，业内领先的智能终端全产业链一站式精密制造解决方案提供商。1993年成立于深圳（公司前身），2006年总部落户湖南长沙。</p><p>蓝思科技通过“新材料、新技术、新装备、新领域”战略，持续不断拓展新领域，业务覆盖消费电子、智能汽车领域及人形机器人、AI眼镜/XR头显、智慧零售设备等新兴领域，形成多场景协同发展的业务布局。</p><p>蓝思科技凭借在精密制造与整机组装领域的积累，将承担Optimus V3的整机组装任务，并供应3D玻璃面罩、灵巧手夹爪模组等核心部件，其灵巧手相关产品市占率已超70%，成为该环节的核心保障。</p><p><strong>三花智控</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063729505v1522xgkk15qvp2\"/><p>主要研发和生产制冷空调零部件、汽车零部件，在相关领域拥有全球领先的技术和市场地位，是全球最大的制冷控制元器件制造商。</p><p>随着人形机器人行业的兴起，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02050\">三花智控</a>敏锐地捕捉到市场机遇，专门成立了机器人事业部，将目光聚焦于人形机器人机电执行器的研发与生产。机电执行器作为人形机器人实现动作执行的重要部件，对机器人的整体性能至关重要。</p><p>三花智控聚焦机器人的关节与热管理系统，提供肩、肘、腕等14个旋转关节总成及液冷散热模组，其精密机电执行器技术为机器人的动作精度与稳定性奠定基础。</p><p><strong>拓普集团</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063743720v152ksvqqrulsbx\"/><p>宁波拓普集团股份有限公司是在上海证券交易所上市的一家科技、平台型汽车零部件企业，主要致力于汽车动力底盘系统、饰件系统、智能驾驶系统等领域的研发与制造。</p><p>作为汽车零部件巨头，利用其在底盘与结构件上的大规模生产、质量控制及成本管理经验，强势切入机器人关节赛道，具备强大的系统集成与供应链整合潜力。</p><p>拓普集团凭借在汽车底盘部件领域的优势，拿下腿部/腰部关节模组的全球独家供应权，同时提供直线/旋转执行器总成，直接影响机器人的行走与承重能力。</p><p><strong>长盈精密</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063744296v15272tbgtwezez\"/><p>深圳市长盈精密技术股份有限公司（简称“长盈精密”）成立于2001年7月，是一家研发、生产、销售智能终端手机零组件，新能源汽车零组件，工业机器人及自动化系统集成的规模化制造企业。</p><p>长盈精密开始为海内外人形机器人客户开发如铝合金、镁合金、钛合金等金属材料，PEEK、IGUS等工程塑料，橡胶、硅胶、尼龙、纤维织布等多种材料的零件。</p><p>此外，公司还使用包括CNC、3D打印、压铸、注塑、滚齿、热压等多种成型工艺，为人形机器人的结构件、执行器、传感器、变速齿轮、线束、电机等提供核心零部件，形成了全链条配套能力。</p><p><strong>卧龙电驱</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063747596v1521rzzd2g5czf\"/><p>主要从事电机及控制系统的研发和生产，电机作为人形机器人的动力来源，其性能好坏对机器人的运动能力起着决定性作用。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600580\">卧龙电驱</a>凭借强大的技术研发能力和先进的制造水平，成为全球领先的电机及驱动制造商。</p><p>在人形机器人领域，该公司积极布局，已成功开发出人形机器人的核心零部件，如高爆发关节、无框力矩电机等，并且与智元机器人展开深度合作。这种合作模式不仅有助于卧龙电驱的产品更好地适配人形机器人的需求，还能通过与机器人整机企业的协同创新，不断优化产品性能，推动人形机器人动力系统的升级与发展。</p><p>卧龙电驱则负责轴向磁通电机、无框力矩电机等驱动系统，是机器人动力输出的核心来源。</p><p><strong>五洲新春</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063749101v152v75ih3y0da7\"/><p>浙江<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603667\">五洲新春</a>集团股份有限公司是一家集研发、制造和服务为一体的综合型企业集团，主要生产轴承及汽车配件等高端精密零部件。2016年，五洲新春在上交所挂牌上市，证券代码603667。目前五洲新春在浙江、安徽、四川、大连和墨西哥等地建有多个生产基地，在美国、波兰、德国、法国、英国、意大利等地拥有销售公司。</p><p><strong>恒立液压</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260109063758820v152lj5zhu3xi5k\"/><p>公司总部位于中国常州，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601100\">恒立液压</a>经过30多年的专注与创新，从液压油缸制造发展成为集液压元件、精密铸件、液压系统等产业于一体的大型综合性企业。在中国、德国、美国、日本、墨西哥分别建有7个液压研发中心与11个生产制造基地。</p><p>五洲新春与恒立液压则聚焦传动与执行部件，分别供应轴承、丝杆及行星滚柱丝杠、线性关节总成，保障机器人动作的流畅性与精准度。</p><p>特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成与中国核心供应链的确定，标志着全球人形机器人产业从技术研发阶段正式迈向量产落地阶段。未来，随着2026年第一季度量产的启动，人形机器人有望逐步从概念走向现实，广泛应用于工业、医疗、家庭服务等多个领域，开启全新的产业革命。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成：七家中国企业成核心供应商？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉Optimus V3量产审核完成：七家中国企业成核心供应商？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-09 06:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109063824a70472c5&s=b><strong>具身智机产业链</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，关于Optimus V3量产审核完成、七家中国企业确定为核心一级供应商的消息引发行业震动。这7家公司分别为：蓝思科技、三花智控、拓普集团、长盈精密、卧龙电驱、五洲新春、恒立液压。尽管特斯拉官方尚未对这一具体供应链名单进行最终确认，但中国供应链深度参与已是公开的秘密。以下提到的这几家公司，各自凭借其核心技术，在机器人产业链中占据了各自的关键环节：蓝思科技蓝思科技是以科技创新为核心、智能智造为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260109063824a70472c5&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ 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