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KEINS

KEINS

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11-26

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 必须加仓

11-26

$谷歌A(GOOGL)$ 巴菲特开始自救了。趁反弹赶紧抛

11-26

$谷歌A(GOOGL)$ 现在还敢杀进去？？找死。

11-26

$谷歌A(GOOGL)$ 坐等你高楼塌！！！谷歌的tpu只能自己用的好，给别人用，也用不太好。只能抢一些外围客户。而且谷歌的ai也在蚕食自己的搜索流量，谷歌用户到底是用搜索还是用ai搜索？我很懵！谷歌轻推理，你问它问题，就推荐一堆链接。。好家伙，你自己不推理好给我，让我自己看链接？？？不做深入推理，使劲推链接，能保住广告流量但却会被openai抢走客户，这年头谁还费劲搜索东西？要做深入推理，好吧，自己的广告业务必跌！！对于谷歌来说，进退维谷！此时炒作股价，谁接盘谁倒霉！

11-25

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 人人都想挑战，因为他因为它的生态护城河那么深，是你挑战的了的吗？陈而且伟达专注只做一件事儿。你谷歌什么都想做，什么都想要，我告诉你，注定你什么都得不到。

11-20

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 哈哈哈，该

11-18

赞同

11-17

马斯克发表

@james duan:$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 兄弟们今天发生了什么谁能告诉我

11-17

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 装什么蛋呐？炒股票不就炒的预期吗？不就应该提前炒吗？当技术出现了，你再入股，你再持仓也晚啦。你是不懂这个道理吗？你不懂这个道理，你买什么屁的股票啊？你直接存银行，，吃利息得了。有病！不就想让别人给你抬微软和苹果的轿子吗？不就想让别人割肉清仓一伟达和和特斯拉嘛，然后你再接回来啊，你这点小心思，你撅屁股我就知道你要拉什么屎。

清仓英伟达！“白宫背后的科技大佬”Peter Thiel三季度大幅降仓，新买入微软和苹果

11-07

别侮辱纳指好吗？？

11-05

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 老二还是不行。。清仓，换英伟达吧，

11-04

微软CEO这个烂水平，大家赶紧卖出，我已经清仓了。

现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了！微软CEO首次承认：成排的H100正在积灰，插不上电

10-24

你在罗里吧嗦说什么？他一直就这样啊，人家只是计划计划，人家不是保证，计划遇到变化怎么就不可以了呢？计划有调整怎么就不可以了呢？人家每次虽然是有延迟，但每次说的吹的牛都完成了，你搁这儿阴阳什么呢？你搁这儿唧唧歪歪的。

特斯拉人形机器人再延期，因为双手只能用六星期

10-10

$Reddit(RDDT)$ 大家都在大跌，你到扛住大跌了，你倒行了今天。

10-03

$谷歌A(GOOGL)$ 谷歌更改规则，让ai搜索能用到的数据由100页变成10页，虽然谷歌有这个话语权，但是这种行为代表了谷歌的心虚，担心ai抢走它的搜索流量。减少广告收入。谷歌这种行为阻挡不了ai的发展，小丑一般的行为暂时清仓谷歌

10-01

$Reddit(RDDT)$ 真服了，一点儿利空新闻也不发，然后又一个劲儿的跌。什么啊这是

10-01

$Reddit(RDDT)$ 懵逼了，看不懂

10-01

$Reddit(RDDT)$ 这股怎么了？？？？

09-20

娶你骂了比的

卢伟冰：希望吸引更多苹果用户加入小米，小米手机在影像、续航、信号都比苹果有优势

09-03

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 东施效颦，amd都追不上，汝等是什么坤坤？？国际笑话

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[强]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504003077267968,"gmtCreate":1764081541701,"gmtModify":1764081544196,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 人人都想挑战，因为他因为它的生态护城河那么深，是你挑战的了的吗？ 陈而且伟达专注只做一件事儿。 你谷歌什么都想做，什么都想要，我告诉你，注定你什么都得不到。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 人人都想挑战，因为他因为它的生态护城河那么深，是你挑战的了的吗？ 陈而且伟达专注只做一件事儿。 你谷歌什么都想做，什么都想要，我告诉你，注定你什么都得不到。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 人人都想挑战，因为他因为它的生态护城河那么深，是你挑战的了的吗？ 陈而且伟达专注只做一件事儿。 你谷歌什么都想做，什么都想要，我告诉你，注定你什么都得不到。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504003077267968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556223833274629","authorId":"3556223833274629","name":"老山古","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3556223833274629","idStr":"3556223833274629"},"content":"对的，最后两头都落空","text":"对的，最后两头都落空","html":"对的，最后两头都落空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502137890964368,"gmtCreate":1763611254772,"gmtModify":1763611259478,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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兄弟们今天发生了什么谁能告诉我","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501194890215776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":501137147117584,"gmtCreate":1763377484879,"gmtModify":1763383997054,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 装什么蛋呐？炒股票不就炒的预期吗？不就应该提前炒吗？当技术出现了，你再入股，你再持仓也晚啦。 你是不懂这个道理吗？你不懂这个道理，你买什么屁的股票啊？你直接存银行，，吃利息得了。 有病！ 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Thiel的基金在三季度进行重大调仓：清仓英伟达，并猛砍特斯拉76%持仓。与此同时，基金新建微软与苹果头寸，整体美股持仓规模缩减约三分之二。此番操作印证了他对AI“炒作周期”的警告。</p></blockquote><p>作为硅谷最具影响力的投资者之一，Peter Thiel的最新动向又一次向狂热的AI市场发出一个明确的谨慎信号。</p><p>根据向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的最新13F持仓报告，Thiel Macro LLC在第三季度完全退出了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的投资。这一举动尤为引人注目，因为它发生在英伟达市值突破5万亿美元、华尔街分析师普遍将其视为“不可动摇”的领头羊之际。并且，11月19日英伟达即将发布最新财报。</p><p>与清仓同步进行的，是一次彻底的投资组合重塑。该基金大幅削减了其美股总持仓，从第二季度的约2.12亿美元降至仅7440万美元。与此同时，基金建立了在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的大额新头寸。</p><h2 id=\"id_3796486317\">投资组合大换血：清仓AI龙头，总持仓缩水三分之二</h2><p>Thiel Macro LLC在第三季度的操作堪称激进。文件显示，该基金不仅清仓了占其上一季度投资组合权重高达40%的英伟达、卖出了全部53.77万股，还抛售了另一笔占权重19%的重要持仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VST\">Vistra</a> Energy。</p><p>此举与英伟达自身强劲的基本面形成了鲜明对比。据报道，英伟达的季度销售额从393亿美元飙升至467亿美元，其数据中心业务收入增长了56%。然而，Thiel的选择显然是基于对未来估值而非当前业绩的判断。</p><p>整体来看，基金的投资组合换手率超过80%。总持仓规模从约2.12亿美元急剧收缩至7440万美元。这一系列操作更像是一次果断的战略收缩，而非温和的再平衡。</p><h2 id=\"id_2572469793\">转向科技巨头：新建仓微软苹果，减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></h2><p>在大幅减仓的同时，Thiel Macro LLC将剩余的资金集中投向了另外两家科技巨头。文件显示，该基金首次买入了微软和苹果的股票。</p><p>该基金在第三季度新建仓买入了49000股微软股票和79181股苹果股票。与此同时，基金对长期持有的特斯拉进行了大幅减持，卖出了20.76万股，减持比例高达76%。</p><p>截至第三季度末，Thiel Macro LLC的投资组合仅剩三只股票。其中，减持后的特斯拉仍是第一大重仓股，占比约38.8%；新买入的微软和苹果紧随其后，分别占投资组合的34.1%和27.1%。</p><p>这一转变表明，Thiel目前更青睐那些拥有多元化收入来源、庞大云业务、硬件生态和成熟软件服务的平台型公司。</p><h2 id=\"id_2035808276\">AI泡沫论再起：Thiel的言行一致</h2><p>Thiel的此次调仓并非毫无征兆。他此前曾公开警告，AI领域的炒作周期已经远远领先于其实际的经济效益，并将当前的市场狂热与1999年互联网泡沫时期相提并论，当时投资者为一项需要15到20年才能完全实现的技术支付了过高的价格。</p><p>将英伟达的持仓“归零”，正是这一观点的有力体现。尽管Thiel本人也曾称赞英伟达在硬件领域的领导地位，但他的投资决策表明，他认为AI的变革将是“缓慢燃烧”的过程。在他看来，能够提供持久经济价值的，是那些平台型公司，而非当前估值已处于高位的纯粹芯片制造商。</p><p>在对AI潜在泡沫表示担忧的知名人士中，Peter Thiel并不孤单。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>创始人Jeff Bezos曾将AI热潮形容为一场“工业泡沫”；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席执行官David Solomon则指出，市场可能面临12至24个月的回调。此外，传奇投资者James Anderson曾对英伟达的某些融资计划表示“不安”。</p><h2 id=\"id_3441994329\">“白宫背后的科技大佬”</h2><p>Peter Thiel在科技和投资界拥有举足轻重的地位，其影响力源于他在多家颠覆性科技公司中的创始角色。他不仅是支付巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>的联合创始人并曾担任其CEO，还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>的首位外部投资者。</p><p>此外，他联合创办了目前最受关注的国防AI公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>并担任董事长，同时通过他旗下的Founders Fund，投资了SpaceX和Airbnb等一系列知名企业。这些横跨金融科技、社交媒体和国防科技领域的深厚背景，使其成为在技术和资本市场都极具影响力的声音。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>清仓英伟达！“白宫背后的科技大佬”Peter Thiel三季度大幅降仓，新买入微软和苹果</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759501\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068623.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE \"AH1\" (USDHDG) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0894485498.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","LU0726765562.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD HEDGED) INC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2347655073.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC A","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","MSFT":"微软","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 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Anderson曾对英伟达的某些融资计划表示“不安”。“白宫背后的科技大佬”Peter Thiel在科技和投资界拥有举足轻重的地位，其影响力源于他在多家颠覆性科技公司中的创始角色。他不仅是支付巨头PayPal的联合创始人并曾担任其CEO，还是Facebook的首位外部投资者。此外，他联合创办了目前最受关注的国防AI公司Palantir并担任董事长，同时通过他旗下的Founders Fund，投资了SpaceX和Airbnb等一系列知名企业。这些横跨金融科技、社交媒体和国防科技领域的深厚背景，使其成为在技术和资本市场都极具影响力的声音。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":2,"AAPL":2,"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497365271347632,"gmtCreate":1762449759241,"gmtModify":1762449761700,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别侮辱纳指好吗？？","listText":"别侮辱纳指好吗？？","text":"别侮辱纳指好吗？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497365271347632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":496928208515544,"gmtCreate":1762343398652,"gmtModify":1762347737923,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$&nbsp;</a> 老二还是不行。。清仓，换英伟达吧，","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$&nbsp;</a> 老二还是不行。。清仓，换英伟达吧，","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 老二还是不行。。清仓，换英伟达吧，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496928208515544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":496290678624400,"gmtCreate":1762187320223,"gmtModify":1762187322617,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"微软CEO这个烂水平，大家赶紧卖出，我已经清仓了。","listText":"微软CEO这个烂水平，大家赶紧卖出，我已经清仓了。","text":"微软CEO这个烂水平，大家赶紧卖出，我已经清仓了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496290678624400","repostId":"2580210551","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2580210551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762178700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2580210551?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-03 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了！微软CEO首次承认：成排的H100正在积灰，插不上电","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2580210551","media":"市场资讯","summary":"真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片，而是电力Satya刚刚透露：整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了，市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价微软有机架成排的H100正在积灰，原因不是不想用，而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行这意味着，所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型，从根本上就是错的。","content":"<html><body><article><p>炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！</p><p>（来源：网易科技）</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251103234501073d15291k7k3xfufr\"/><p>真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片，而是电力</p><p>Satya刚刚透露：整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了，市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>有机架成排的H100正在积灰，原因不是不想用，而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行</p><p>这意味着，所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型，从根本上就是错的。你正在为错误的约束条件估值。 瓶颈早已转移，而市场仍在像2023年那样交易</p><p>重写资本支出方程</p><p>这完全改写了资本支出的等式</p><p>当微软斥资500亿美元购买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>GPU时，华尔街将其誉为AI投资，并推高了两家公司的股价。但如果其中一半的芯片在货架上闲置18个月，那么投资回报的时间线就崩溃了</p><p>GPU在黑暗的机架中每多待一个季度，就意味着这个季度它不仅没有产生任何收入，同时相对于英伟达下一代产品的性能还在贬值。你等于在用零回报抵消数据中心建设成本和芯片折旧费</p><p>真正的赢家</p><p>在这场竞赛中，真正能获胜的，是那些在3-4年前就锁定了电力采购协议的玩家，那时根本没人考虑到AI推理集群需要上百兆瓦的电力</p><p>那些及早与电力公司建立合作关系，或自建发电能力的超大规模云厂商，拥有了在任何合理时间范围内都无法被复制的结构性优势</p><p>你可以在6个月内订购10万块GPU并收到货。但你无法在6个月内订购500兆瓦的电力并让它上线。这需要数年的审批、建设、并网和监管批准。</p><p>被忽视的第二重打击：加速的折旧</p><p>Satya关于不想过度购买某一代GPU的观点，是所有人忽视的第二个关键洞见</p><p>英伟达的发布周期已经从两年多压缩到几乎一年一次。这意味着今天购买的GPU，可能只有12到18个月的性能领先期，然后就会过时。</p><p>如果你不能立即部署它，你买到的就是一块在产生任何收益之前，就已经在相对未来产品贬值的<span>资产</span>。在摩尔定律还比较慢的时代，采购和部署之间的时间差成本并没有这么高昂</p><p>刷新周期的压缩还意味着，谁能最快部署，谁就能不成比例地捕获巨大价值。</p><p>如果你能在6个月内为新容量通电，而对手需要24个月，你就多出了18个月的时间来享受推理服务的定价，直到竞争对手赶上</p><p>部署速度现在直接成为芯片采购投资回报率的倍增器。这意味着拥有自有电力和地产的垂直整合玩家，能够比任何依赖第三方数据中心或公共电网连接的对手行动得更快</p><p>护城河已经改变</p><p>这彻底改变了竞争护城河的结构。旧的护城河是模型质量和算法改进。新的护城河是物理基础设施和能源准入</p><p>你可以在6个月内训练出一个更好的模型，但你无法在6个月内<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01630\">建成</a>一个通电的数据中心。这种约束会持续数年，并将在赢家和输家之间创造出持久的差距</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了！微软CEO首次承认：成排的H100正在积灰，插不上电</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了！微软CEO首次承认：成排的H100正在积灰，插不上电\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-03 22:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025110323450697514d08&s=b><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！（来源：网易科技）真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片，而是电力Satya刚刚透露：整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了，市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价微软有机架成排的H100正在积灰，原因不是不想用，而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行这意味着，所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型，从根本上就是错的。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025110323450697514d08&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc 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瓶颈早已转移，而市场仍在像2023年那样交易重写资本支出方程这完全改写了资本支出的等式当微软斥资500亿美元购买英伟达GPU时，华尔街将其誉为AI投资，并推高了两家公司的股价。但如果其中一半的芯片在货架上闲置18个月，那么投资回报的时间线就崩溃了GPU在黑暗的机架中每多待一个季度，就意味着这个季度它不仅没有产生任何收入，同时相对于英伟达下一代产品的性能还在贬值。你等于在用零回报抵消数据中心建设成本和芯片折旧费真正的赢家在这场竞赛中，真正能获胜的，是那些在3-4年前就锁定了电力采购协议的玩家，那时根本没人考虑到AI推理集群需要上百兆瓦的电力那些及早与电力公司建立合作关系，或自建发电能力的超大规模云厂商，拥有了在任何合理时间范围内都无法被复制的结构性优势你可以在6个月内订购10万块GPU并收到货。但你无法在6个月内订购500兆瓦的电力并让它上线。这需要数年的审批、建设、并网和监管批准。被忽视的第二重打击：加速的折旧Satya关于不想过度购买某一代GPU的观点，是所有人忽视的第二个关键洞见英伟达的发布周期已经从两年多压缩到几乎一年一次。这意味着今天购买的GPU，可能只有12到18个月的性能领先期，然后就会过时。如果你不能立即部署它，你买到的就是一块在产生任何收益之前，就已经在相对未来产品贬值的资产。在摩尔定律还比较慢的时代，采购和部署之间的时间差成本并没有这么高昂刷新周期的压缩还意味着，谁能最快部署，谁就能不成比例地捕获巨大价值。如果你能在6个月内为新容量通电，而对手需要24个月，你就多出了18个月的时间来享受推理服务的定价，直到竞争对手赶上部署速度现在直接成为芯片采购投资回报率的倍增器。这意味着拥有自有电力和地产的垂直整合玩家，能够比任何依赖第三方数据中心或公共电网连接的对手行动得更快护城河已经改变这彻底改变了竞争护城河的结构。旧的护城河是模型质量和算法改进。新的护城河是物理基础设施和能源准入你可以在6个月内训练出一个更好的模型，但你无法在6个月内建成一个通电的数据中心。这种约束会持续数年，并将在赢家和输家之间创造出持久的差距","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":492719626207952,"gmtCreate":1761314236442,"gmtModify":1761314238879,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你在罗里吧嗦说什么？他一直就这样啊，人家只是计划计划，人家不是保证，计划遇到变化怎么就不可以了呢？计划有调整怎么就不可以了呢？人家每次虽然是有延迟，但每次说的吹的牛都完成了，你搁这儿阴阳什么呢？你搁这儿唧唧歪歪的。","listText":"你在罗里吧嗦说什么？他一直就这样啊，人家只是计划计划，人家不是保证，计划遇到变化怎么就不可以了呢？计划有调整怎么就不可以了呢？人家每次虽然是有延迟，但每次说的吹的牛都完成了，你搁这儿阴阳什么呢？你搁这儿唧唧歪歪的。","text":"你在罗里吧嗦说什么？他一直就这样啊，人家只是计划计划，人家不是保证，计划遇到变化怎么就不可以了呢？计划有调整怎么就不可以了呢？人家每次虽然是有延迟，但每次说的吹的牛都完成了，你搁这儿阴阳什么呢？你搁这儿唧唧歪歪的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492719626207952","repostId":"2577513713","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2577513713","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1761305624,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2577513713?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-24 19:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉人形机器人再延期，因为双手只能用六星期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2577513713","media":"格隆汇","summary":"格隆汇10月24日｜据晚点latepost，“老马的信誉分感觉连充电宝都借不出来了。” 一位特斯拉供应链人士说。特斯拉原本计划在今年初确定三代机器人技术方案并开始量产，这家供应商能获得价值数亿美元的订单，为此他们已投入数亿元和数百人研发近三年。马斯克在昨天的三季度电话会上确认，第三代人形机器人 Optimus 的设计定型将推迟到明年一季度。今年 7 月 14 日，马斯克曾在 X 上发帖说，他刚刚离开特斯拉设计工作室，今年年底会有史诗级震撼的演示。两位供应链人士称，特斯拉原本计划在今年 11 月完成第三代 Optimus 的开发工作，并召开发布会。","content":"<html><body><article><p>格隆汇10月24日｜据晚点latepost，“老马的信誉分感觉连充电宝都借不出来了。” 一位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>供应链人士说。特斯拉原本计划在今年初确定三代机器人技术方案并开始量产，这家供应商能获得价值数亿美元的订单，为此他们已投入数亿元和数百人研发近三年。马斯克在昨天的三季度电话会上确认，第三代人形机器人 Optimus 的设计定型将推迟到明年一季度。今年 7 月 14 日，马斯克曾在 X 上发帖说，他刚刚离开特斯拉设计工作室，今年年底会有史诗级震撼的演示。两位供应链人士称，特斯拉原本计划在今年 11 月完成第三代 Optimus 的开发工作，并召开发布会。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251024194725a472ab1d&s=b><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>格隆汇10月24日｜据晚点latepost，“老马的信誉分感觉连充电宝都借不出来了。” 一位特斯拉供应链人士说。特斯拉原本计划在今年初确定三代机器人技术方案并开始量产，这家供应商能获得价值数亿美元的订单，为此他们已投入数亿元和数百人研发近三年。马斯克在昨天的三季度电话会上确认，第三代人形机器人 Optimus 的设计定型将推迟到明年一季度。今年 7 月 14 日，马斯克曾在 X 上发帖说，他刚刚...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251024194725a472ab1d&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD 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涨了什么牛都能吹起来","html":"跌了什么分析都能出来 涨了什么牛都能吹起来"},{"author":{"id":"3494420044734025","authorId":"3494420044734025","name":"Lady_Susu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7655df6b0f443f50fb6475e358d661c0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3494420044734025","idStr":"3494420044734025"},"content":"那个特价版我也不是很懂，有人下载吗[捂脸]","text":"那个特价版我也不是很懂，有人下载吗[捂脸]","html":"那个特价版我也不是很懂，有人下载吗[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}