帝都第一棒
2023-03-01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@期权小班长:
聊聊特斯拉投资者日的期权交易策略
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tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">期权大单会不会显示一些近期震荡线索呢?比较遗憾的是只能从近期成交行权价推测出股价在220-180区间震荡,策略上没有统一方向。</p><p>就目前特斯拉整体趋势还是有三个比较适合的策略可以参考交易:</p><p><b>熊市看涨价差</b>:</p><ul><li>卖 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230310 250.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230310 250.0 CALL$ </a></li><li>买 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230310 255.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230310 255.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>行权价是去年10月初高点,重大利好也较难突破,适合投资日前卖出赚高波动率。</p><p>从异动来看220是平均上限,但我考虑了一下这次投资者会之前放风如此花里胡哨,放弃220-230,选择了更安全的行权价。</p><p><b>牛市看跌价差</b>:</p><ul><li>卖 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230310 190.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230310 190.0 PUT$ </a></li><li>买 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230310 185.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230310 185.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p>此策略偏向投资会利好出尽后继续横盘,虽然股价涨不上去但也跌不下来。185-180是更安全的区间。</p><p><b>牛市看涨价差</b>:</p><ul><li>买 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230317 207.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20230317 207.5 CALL$ </a></li><li>卖 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230317 220 CALL\">$TSLA 20230317 220 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>看涨投资日可选择这个策略,看涨同时不过分无限看涨。</p><p>此外还可以采用迂回方法关注机构交易方向,比如关注特斯拉持仓占比数一数二的ETF期权异动<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLY\">$消费品指数ETF-SPDR可选消费品(XLY)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a></p><p>从<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a> 的期权异动来看,近期偏向看空多一些。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>有朋友问我怎么看特斯拉投资者日发布会,我的观点是对于发布会没有看跌理由,对于后续市场没有看涨理由。马斯克在这次发布会之前把想象力和期待值拉满,天马行空,所以发布会前看涨,甚至当天给个高开都不过分,问题大头在于高开之后呢?</p><p>北京时间3月2日凌晨5点将召开特斯拉投资者会议,主要有以下几个关注点:</p><ul><li>交付:预测2030年特斯拉的销量将提高15倍至2000万辆</li><li>期待已久的Model 2:售价2.5万美元小型轿车是否会公布生产</li><li>新的总体规划:如何扩大生产规模,以及进一步强化垂直整合模式,掌控制造电池和储能系统的全部环节。包括新一代低成本电池。</li><li>赛博卡车量产,以及特斯拉新工厂选址等等。</li></ul><p>从大盘整体情况来看,目前市场氛围比较紧张。接连几项跟通胀密切相关的数据高于预期,导致国债收益率上升,美元上涨。通胀韧性和不着陆概念加持下市场大幅纠偏,甚至3月50基点加息概率涨至20%以上,构成下行压力。这些因素都从宏观上限制了特斯拉上涨天花板。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/952a6d925148ff2a0161f341fbabcd7a\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">期权大单会不会显示一些近期震荡线索呢?比较遗憾的是只能从近期成交行权价推测出股价在220-180区间震荡,策略上没有统一方向。</p><p>就目前特斯拉整体趋势还是有三个比较适合的策略可以参考交易:</p><p><b>熊市看涨价差</b>:</p><ul><li>卖 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230310 250.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230310 250.0 CALL$ </a></li><li>买 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230310 255.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230310 255.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>行权价是去年10月初高点,重大利好也较难突破,适合投资日前卖出赚高波动率。</p><p>从异动来看220是平均上限,但我考虑了一下这次投资者会之前放风如此花里胡哨,放弃220-230,选择了更安全的行权价。</p><p><b>牛市看跌价差</b>:</p><ul><li>卖 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230310 190.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230310 190.0 PUT$ </a></li><li>买 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230310 185.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230310 185.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p>此策略偏向投资会利好出尽后继续横盘,虽然股价涨不上去但也跌不下来。185-180是更安全的区间。</p><p><b>牛市看涨价差</b>:</p><ul><li>买 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230317 207.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20230317 207.5 CALL$ </a></li><li>卖 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230317 220 CALL\">$TSLA 20230317 220 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>看涨投资日可选择这个策略,看涨同时不过分无限看涨。</p><p>此外还可以采用迂回方法关注机构交易方向,比如关注特斯拉持仓占比数一数二的ETF期权异动<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLY\">$消费品指数ETF-SPDR可选消费品(XLY)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a></p><p>从<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a> 的期权异动来看,近期偏向看空多一些。</p></body></html>","text":"有朋友问我怎么看特斯拉投资者日发布会,我的观点是对于发布会没有看跌理由,对于后续市场没有看涨理由。马斯克在这次发布会之前把想象力和期待值拉满,天马行空,所以发布会前看涨,甚至当天给个高开都不过分,问题大头在于高开之后呢? 北京时间3月2日凌晨5点将召开特斯拉投资者会议,主要有以下几个关注点: 交付:预测2030年特斯拉的销量将提高15倍至2000万辆 期待已久的Model 2:售价2.5万美元小型轿车是否会公布生产 新的总体规划:如何扩大生产规模,以及进一步强化垂直整合模式,掌控制造电池和储能系统的全部环节。包括新一代低成本电池。 赛博卡车量产,以及特斯拉新工厂选址等等。 从大盘整体情况来看,目前市场氛围比较紧张。接连几项跟通胀密切相关的数据高于预期,导致国债收益率上升,美元上涨。通胀韧性和不着陆概念加持下市场大幅纠偏,甚至3月50基点加息概率涨至20%以上,构成下行压力。这些因素都从宏观上限制了特斯拉上涨天花板。期权大单会不会显示一些近期震荡线索呢?比较遗憾的是只能从近期成交行权价推测出股价在220-180区间震荡,策略上没有统一方向。 就目前特斯拉整体趋势还是有三个比较适合的策略可以参考交易: 熊市看涨价差: 卖 $TSLA 20230310 250.0 CALL$ 买 $TSLA 20230310 255.0 CALL$ 行权价是去年10月初高点,重大利好也较难突破,适合投资日前卖出赚高波动率。 从异动来看220是平均上限,但我考虑了一下这次投资者会之前放风如此花里胡哨,放弃220-230,选择了更安全的行权价。 牛市看跌价差: 卖 $TSLA 20230310 190.0 PUT$ 买 $TSLA 20230310 185.0 PUT$ 此策略偏向投资会利好出尽后继续横盘,虽然股价涨不上去但也跌不下来。185-180是更安全的区间。 牛市看涨价差: 买 $TSLA 20230317 207.5 CALL$ 卖 $TSLA 20230317 220 CALL$ 看涨投资日可选择这个策略,看涨同时不过分无限看涨。 此外还可以采用迂回方法关注机构交易方向,比如关注特斯拉持仓占比数一数二的ETF期权异动$消费品指数ETF-SPDR可选消费品(XLY)$ 和$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ 从$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ 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