Mediator
07-02
一份符合预期或偏强的报告将支持美联储7月维持按兵不动、并为后续加息铺路；货币市场目前定价9月加息概率约80%，10月则已完全消化一次25基点加息。
今晚，沃什时代首份非农出炉，世界杯或营造就业"虚火"
华尔街见闻
紧盯全球金融市场，覆盖股市、外汇、债券、大宗商品等。
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Rindels指出，FIFA世界杯可能为6月非农贡献约4万个临时岗位，主要集中在休闲酒店、专业商业服务及贸易运输领域，令高盛将整体预测上调至14万。<strong>这意味着，剔除世界杯效应后，劳动力市场的实际走势或比表面数字更为疲软。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315f85c82a133cd7a61b4a0d5ab0a4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"420\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份报告的政策意义同样不容小觑。Warsh在6月17日首次新闻发布会上强调2%通胀目标是施政核心，并将当前劳动力市场描述为"稳健甚至有所改善"。美银证券（BofA Securities）和巴克莱均认为，<strong>一份符合预期或偏强的报告将支持美联储7月维持按兵不动、并为后续加息铺路；货币市场目前定价9月加息概率约80%，10月则已完全消化一次25基点加息。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">世界杯效应：数字背后的水分</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛援引小企业薪资服务商Homebase的私人数据称，11个世界杯举办城市的就业同比降幅仅为1.2%，而其他城市的降幅达3.5%；酒店业招聘更同比上涨9.5%，呈现出明显的赛事拉动特征。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6b8556f1d25612e9458e44304b1667\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"461\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛由此估算，世界杯将为6月非农贡献约4万个岗位，并将其整体预测定为14万，高于市场共识的11.3万。此外，高盛还指出，历史数据显示6月非农初值存在上修偏差，但过去四年每次均在后续修正中被下调，这为解读本次数据提供了重要参照。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，5月就业数据受地方政府招聘大幅增加提振，分析人士预计这一因素在6月不会重演，构成下行风险。巴克莱预测6月非农仅增10万，明显低于市场共识，并指出若不考虑修正，二季度三个月均值仍将在15万左右，远高于一季度的7.3万。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">劳动力市场降温信号趋于一致</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>多项领先指标均指向6月就业增速放缓。</strong>ADP全国就业数据6月录得9.8万，低于预期的11.8万及前值12.2万；ADP首席经济学家表示，就业市场呈现"供需双重叙事"——求职周期拉长，部分行业面临劳动力约束，净效果是就业创造放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">初请失业金人数方面，与劳工统计局（BLS）调查窗口重叠的当周录得22.7万，高于5月非农调查期的21万；续请失业金人数亦从178.5万升至182.1万。Pantheon Macroeconomics指出，初请和续请数据自5月初以来呈上升趋势，与非农增速放缓至盈亏平衡线以下的判断相符。值得注意的是，分析人士提示，Juneteenth节假日可能对当周数据造成扰动，季节性调整尚未完全反映该假日效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">标普全球</a>6月制造业PMI就业分项连续第二个月下滑，制造业用工削减速度为2020年疫情以来最快，剔除疫情影响则为2009年以来最急；服务业就业仅小幅下降。消费者信心数据亦印证降温：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBG\">世邦魏理仕</a>6月消费者信心调查显示，认为"工作难找"的受访者比例升至22.5%，为2021年1月以来最高；劳动力市场差值（"工作好找"减"工作难找"）下滑2.6个百分点至+2.4。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什时代政策坐标：通胀优先，加息预期升温</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6月17日，Warsh在美联储新主席身份下的首次新闻发布会上明确表态，官员将劳动力市场判断为"稳健，甚至略有改善"，并将抑制通胀定性为其领导下的核心任务。最新经济预测将年底失业率预测从4.4%下调至4.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银证券在报告中写道，<strong>自去年年中以来，实际政策利率已宽松逾100个基点，而失业率净变化几乎为零，这为美联储反转去年75基点降息操作提供了依据。美银证券预计美联储将于9月启动加息，预测2026年共加息三次；若6月非农符合或强于预期，7月会议将成为"活跃会议"，当前市场对7月加息的定价约为33%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/764b91a75ab7f378a0efdd9aa53c8fba\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"414\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱则指出，在非农增速持续高于圣路易斯联储估算的1.5万至1.8万盈亏平衡线、失业率几乎纹丝不动的背景下，居民调查与企业调查之间的分歧得以延续，这一组合与7月再度按兵不动、同时政策委员会继续权衡收紧理由的情形相符。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">市场反应：非对称风险主导交易格局</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银证券强调，当前市场反应存在明显非对称性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">持仓和预期层面，彭博调查显示市场对6月非农的预测中位数已升至年内高位，<strong>一旦数据低于预期，空头面临被迫平仓压力，系统性策略团队（CTA）的前端利率空头在本周收益率反弹后尤为脆弱。美银证券情景分析显示，若失业率上升至4.4%，2年期美债收益率或下行5至20个基点；若降至4.2%，则上行5至12个基点，两者幅度不对称。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">汇率市场同样面临双向风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银证券指出，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>（DXY）已接近12个月高点，Warsh的鹰派立场及FOMC半数委员支持加息的信号推动了最近一轮涨势。若数据显著低于预期，投机性多头头寸面临平仓压力，DXY可能回吐近期涨幅；但若数据符合或强于预期，美元有望向美银证券三季度目标（欧元兑美元1.12）进一步靠拢。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04e80fb3abb03a75cfdc968e3f9115b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"455\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛从多位交易员处汇总的观点亦指出，市场正争分夺秒地试图厘清"沃什美联储"的反应函数——究竟是穿越AI驱动的通胀暂时忍耐，还是主动加息为经济降温。此次非农数据，加上Warsh在辛特拉央行论坛上的讲话，将是解答这一问题的关键线索。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今晚，沃什时代首份非农出炉，世界杯或营造就业\"虚火\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-02 14:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>美联储新主席Warsh上任后首份非农就业报告今晚揭晓，市场共识预期新增11.3万、较5月大幅回落，但高盛警告FIFA世界杯或虚增约4万临时岗位，真实劳动力降温可能比数字更深。ADP、PMI就业分项、初请失业金人数多项指标齐发警报，与此同时，加息预期持续升温，9月加息概率已达80%。数据若低于预期，美债与美元将面临剧烈波动。</span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储新主席Kevin Warsh上任后的首份非农就业报告将于北京时间今晚（7月2日）公布，市场预期就业增速明显放缓，但世界杯效应可能虚抬数据，令真实的劳动力市场降温信号被遮蔽。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据道琼斯共识预测，<strong>6月非农就业人数预计新增11.3万，较5月17.2万大幅回落；失业率预计持平于4.3%。</strong>然而，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>经济学家Ronnie Walker和Jessica Rindels指出，FIFA世界杯可能为6月非农贡献约4万个临时岗位，主要集中在休闲酒店、专业商业服务及贸易运输领域，令高盛将整体预测上调至14万。<strong>这意味着，剔除世界杯效应后，劳动力市场的实际走势或比表面数字更为疲软。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315f85c82a133cd7a61b4a0d5ab0a4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"420\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份报告的政策意义同样不容小觑。Warsh在6月17日首次新闻发布会上强调2%通胀目标是施政核心，并将当前劳动力市场描述为"稳健甚至有所改善"。美银证券（BofA Securities）和巴克莱均认为，<strong>一份符合预期或偏强的报告将支持美联储7月维持按兵不动、并为后续加息铺路；货币市场目前定价9月加息概率约80%，10月则已完全消化一次25基点加息。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">世界杯效应：数字背后的水分</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛援引小企业薪资服务商Homebase的私人数据称，11个世界杯举办城市的就业同比降幅仅为1.2%，而其他城市的降幅达3.5%；酒店业招聘更同比上涨9.5%，呈现出明显的赛事拉动特征。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6b8556f1d25612e9458e44304b1667\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"461\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛由此估算，世界杯将为6月非农贡献约4万个岗位，并将其整体预测定为14万，高于市场共识的11.3万。此外，高盛还指出，历史数据显示6月非农初值存在上修偏差，但过去四年每次均在后续修正中被下调，这为解读本次数据提供了重要参照。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一方面，5月就业数据受地方政府招聘大幅增加提振，分析人士预计这一因素在6月不会重演，构成下行风险。巴克莱预测6月非农仅增10万，明显低于市场共识，并指出若不考虑修正，二季度三个月均值仍将在15万左右，远高于一季度的7.3万。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">劳动力市场降温信号趋于一致</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>多项领先指标均指向6月就业增速放缓。</strong>ADP全国就业数据6月录得9.8万，低于预期的11.8万及前值12.2万；ADP首席经济学家表示，就业市场呈现"供需双重叙事"——求职周期拉长，部分行业面临劳动力约束，净效果是就业创造放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">初请失业金人数方面，与劳工统计局（BLS）调查窗口重叠的当周录得22.7万，高于5月非农调查期的21万；续请失业金人数亦从178.5万升至182.1万。Pantheon Macroeconomics指出，初请和续请数据自5月初以来呈上升趋势，与非农增速放缓至盈亏平衡线以下的判断相符。值得注意的是，分析人士提示，Juneteenth节假日可能对当周数据造成扰动，季节性调整尚未完全反映该假日效应。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">标普全球</a>6月制造业PMI就业分项连续第二个月下滑，制造业用工削减速度为2020年疫情以来最快，剔除疫情影响则为2009年以来最急；服务业就业仅小幅下降。消费者信心数据亦印证降温：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBG\">世邦魏理仕</a>6月消费者信心调查显示，认为"工作难找"的受访者比例升至22.5%，为2021年1月以来最高；劳动力市场差值（"工作好找"减"工作难找"）下滑2.6个百分点至+2.4。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什时代政策坐标：通胀优先，加息预期升温</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6月17日，Warsh在美联储新主席身份下的首次新闻发布会上明确表态，官员将劳动力市场判断为"稳健，甚至略有改善"，并将抑制通胀定性为其领导下的核心任务。最新经济预测将年底失业率预测从4.4%下调至4.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银证券在报告中写道，<strong>自去年年中以来，实际政策利率已宽松逾100个基点，而失业率净变化几乎为零，这为美联储反转去年75基点降息操作提供了依据。美银证券预计美联储将于9月启动加息，预测2026年共加息三次；若6月非农符合或强于预期，7月会议将成为"活跃会议"，当前市场对7月加息的定价约为33%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/764b91a75ab7f378a0efdd9aa53c8fba\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"414\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱则指出，在非农增速持续高于圣路易斯联储估算的1.5万至1.8万盈亏平衡线、失业率几乎纹丝不动的背景下，居民调查与企业调查之间的分歧得以延续，这一组合与7月再度按兵不动、同时政策委员会继续权衡收紧理由的情形相符。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">市场反应：非对称风险主导交易格局</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银证券强调，当前市场反应存在明显非对称性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">持仓和预期层面，彭博调查显示市场对6月非农的预测中位数已升至年内高位，<strong>一旦数据低于预期，空头面临被迫平仓压力，系统性策略团队（CTA）的前端利率空头在本周收益率反弹后尤为脆弱。美银证券情景分析显示，若失业率上升至4.4%，2年期美债收益率或下行5至20个基点；若降至4.2%，则上行5至12个基点，两者幅度不对称。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">汇率市场同样面临双向风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银证券指出，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>（DXY）已接近12个月高点，Warsh的鹰派立场及FOMC半数委员支持加息的信号推动了最近一轮涨势。若数据显著低于预期，投机性多头头寸面临平仓压力，DXY可能回吐近期涨幅；但若数据符合或强于预期，美元有望向美银证券三季度目标（欧元兑美元1.12）进一步靠拢。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04e80fb3abb03a75cfdc968e3f9115b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"455\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛从多位交易员处汇总的观点亦指出，市场正争分夺秒地试图厘清"沃什美联储"的反应函数——究竟是穿越AI驱动的通胀暂时忍耐，还是主动加息为经济降温。此次非农数据，加上Warsh在辛特拉央行论坛上的讲话，将是解答这一问题的关键线索。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50fff36a918da88f9daa6348bbd77d7c","relate_stocks":{"SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1633808545.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds 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